The latest employment figures are good. Unemployment has fallen to 4%, with strong jobs growth continuing. Vacancies are also at good levels, implying no immediate fall off in employment in prospect. Average earnings hit £27,500 a year as we go into 2019, with real wages now growing at  around a 1% annual rate.
This means over the two and a half years since we voted to leave, Â the economy has continued to generate a lot of extra jobs, bringing unemployment down. Most of these jobs are full time, and many are well paid, boosting average earnings. That is the opposite of the recession allied to big job losses we were told by the Treasury and Remain experts to expect after the referendum decision.
Many in Parliament wish to increase the uncertainties and carry on portraying a gloomy outlook from their own pessimistic imaginations. Many of them now are desperately searching for a delay to Brexit so they can prolong the uncertainty and spend many more months rowing over what kind of Brexit they want or will allow, regardless of the views of the voters and regardless of what the EU might agree to. It is particularly cheering that employment has grown so well recently, when the national conversation has been dominated by gloomy Remain MPs telling us the future is dreadful, and when the chances of us just leaving without signing the Withdrawal Agreement have risen thanks to the huge defeat of the Agreement in the Commons.
It also shows that the authorities attempts to slow and damage the economy with a series of tax attacks on homes and cars, and with the slowing of credit, have not been sufficient to stop overall jobs and wage growth, though they have of course done damage to the targeted sectors.
January 23, 2019
Good morning.
Whilst it is always welcome to hear good news I think our kind host last paragraph may need a little rereading.
The fact that economy hasn’t gone from boom to bust maybe because of those same credit squeezing preventing a bubble in the housing and car market. Yes they are weakened but, when one looks at it maybe that is a good thing. Fewer buyers will mean keener prices and, in time, the market will restore itself.
Interest rates are still too low and a small rise after BREXIT might be on the cards. This to strengthen the pound a little and to normalise the market.
There needs to be more competition in the high street for banking. Building Societies are probably the best bet here. I think giving them preferential tax treatment or savings packages would attract more customers and money. Also the end of QE will help.
My fear for BREXIT and our freedom comes from our own elected representatives. We do not need to sign a Withdrawal Agreement we can Leave and should now just Leave.
January 23, 2019
Leaving without the awful align everything withdrawal agreement document giving them ÂŁ100 billion for nothing changes. This whole EU and bickering episode in Parliament has shown the public how awful Westminster has become. How low their ethics and standards. Lying to keep us in. Peoples votes, extending article 50. Stinks of desperation from the federalists! We need change to a modern voting system where we can rid ourselves of these self serving legacies so our votes count. No longer the least worst option. Lets clear that swamp.
Good interview on Sky Sir John. Chukka came across as a desperate, clingy child!
January 23, 2019
@Mark B; “Interest rates are still too low and a small rise after BREXIT might be on the cards.”
Problem being, the existing debt bubble is already far to large, any increase in interest rates could see that bubble burst as unsecured loans become unserviceable. The level of (in)secure personal loans need to be reigned in first.
“There needs to be more competition in the high street for banking. Building Societies are probably the best bet here. “
No thank you! The Building Societies should, and indeed must be forced if needs-be to, remain above the scrum of commercialised (cheap) loan market.
January 23, 2019
Unfortunately Mrs. May is only leaving the âNo Dealâ option in place for her own purposes.
She hopes it will frighten MPs into accepting her Withdrawal Agreement Mk2 (same as Mk1 version) after some empty assurances during Project Figleaf.
At the same time, she hopes it will frighten the EU into a much friendlier tone even if little new is on offer.
January 23, 2019
I think MPs need to reflect that not acting on the will of the people to leave the EU makes Parliament an irrelevance and will be of no use to the people in its current form.
We already know the Lords is now on a time clock, it serves no purpose whatsoever other than an additional pension for the establishment.
May must by now realise she is considered to be the most dishonest PM in living memory. No one, inside or outside parliament, would be stupid enough to beleive anything she said. Moreover, who would trust her to do what she said after Chequers underhand dishonest behaviour after all what she said previously?
Therefore whatever she now says or decides to do needs to be treated with suspicion and caution by MPs who wish to leave. May knows she is done and confirmed she will be gone like Cameron before her. One greedy eye on her memoirs.
We already have the disdainful views of slimy Hammond, Gauke, Clarke, Soubry, Greive and Rudd.
The only possible way for the Tory party to survive is by delivering a clean Brexit with no strings attached. As we voted for before all the strap lines and narratives of hard no soft Brexit etc etc.
No one has questioned all the different types of reman there could possibly be i.e. five presidents report, being part of EU army to secure EU foreign, join Euro (again highlighted by fanatics Clarke and Heseltine) and defence policy or rather German expansion.
January 23, 2019
Rees Mogg helpful advice – shut down parliament if Remain try to stop Brexit.
Unfortunately,on previous evidence, Mrs. Maychiavelli is only paying lip service to Brexit and will probably switch to a Remain option at the last minute. She likes pulling strokes. She thinks it is a clever way to operate.
January 23, 2019
Mark B
“Elected representatives” the one you helped to be selected, right? Looks like your complaints have nothing to do with whether the UK is part of a trade bloc or not.
January 23, 2019
It’s not a trade block. If it was, why are we having such problems Leaving ?
Wrong ! The ‘Elected Representative’ in the constituency I live in was not selected by me, but by others via the ballot box – eg one man, one vote. Needless to say, I accepted the result of the majority even though I disagree with their choice.
I have always viewed the EU as a symptom of the problem (UK Parliament) and not a problem in itself. It seems that events are proving me correct, hence why I advocate Direct Democracy.
You assume too much. A fool’s paradise.
January 25, 2019
@ Mark B
I do not argue with proponents of direct democracy. That is such a fundamentally different approach to politics and government (compared to the status quo) that anyone proposing direct democracy should be doing a lot of homework to see if it would deliver useful government. It is cool, though.
January 23, 2019
Mark B is not complaining.
January 24, 2019
Thanks John.
January 23, 2019
Another parliamentary petition has started up and should reach 100,000:
Brexit re article 50 it must not be suspended/stopped under any circumstances
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/224908/signatures/new
January 23, 2019
Thanks, I’ve now signed and it’s at 78,120.
January 23, 2019
79,105
January 23, 2019
Thank you Rose, I shall sign it even though they will ignore it just as they ignore the wishes of the 17.4 million who voted to Leave.
January 23, 2019
Dear Sir John
Please stay strong. Please do you best to make sure you Leave colleagues don’t waiver. The Withdrawal Agreement is as bad as all the other ways MPs are trying to keep us in the EU.
Stephen
January 23, 2019
Amen to that. Keep Moggieâs arm up his back.
January 23, 2019
and perhaps Nadine D can be a bit more savvy – it wasn’t hard to guess that the BBC et al would take advantage of any cracks, and generate some from any perceived ambiguities/softening of the Brexiteers.
January 23, 2019
Nigel
Certainly agree with that.
January 23, 2019
Project Smear and Project Fear
First two items on BBC Breakfast this morning:
Project Smear:
“A no deal Brexit will lead to “Far Right” Terrorist Groups.
Project Fear:
“George Osborne at Davos (where else?) says a no deal Brexit would be playing Russian Roulette with the British economy, putting a gun to its head. As opposed to putting a bomb under it by merely voting to leave.
January 23, 2019
Ah, not the old far right argument again. The left always invoke Godwin’s Law to suit their agenda and deflect attention away from the extremism of the fascist left operating under the guise of Labour.
The far right in the UK is a few football hooligans. The fascist left is widespread and have infiltrated Labour and now own that party at national and local level
The extremism of Corbyn and McDonnell will cause dislocation and suffering.
I blame the Tory party and their MPs for remaining silent in the face of the rise of liberal left fascism
And the BBC. Well, what can we say about this most disgusting state broadcaster. They’ll turn a blind eye to any abuse to protect their Labour vested interest
The left and their client state is in full comeback and their extremism will impose considerable damage upon us all
January 23, 2019
@ Stephen Priest
No confidence in senior police officers then? And, Osborne is right.
January 23, 2019
Just like he was right over the emergency budget after the Brexit vote?
January 25, 2019
He may know more than you do. In factlet’s hope he does!
January 23, 2019
Surely if there was a so called “No Deal” Brexit Leave supporters would be happy and Remain supporters would be unhappy.
By that logic we should fear Remain terrorism.
But of course in the eyes of the BBC, senior police, most politicians all the nice people voted Remain all the nasty people voted Leave.
January 23, 2019
Osborne has never been right on any of his predictions and failed to deliver on everything he promised when in office! He went further when he became bitter after being sacked by divulging the Tory party had no intention on delivering on its immigration pledges, it did no only discredit May, as he intended, but it made him look an absolute liar as well. Then we have all the seedy details of his university days that he perhaps want us to forget or not read. Trust, loyalty? Oh dear, Osborne is so discredited his bitter views will not be treated with any credibility. Recession,for voting leave, 500,000 job losses, threat of an emergency budget etc etc.
January 23, 2019
Osborne claims so painful it wants to make you scream Louise!
January 23, 2019
Rien Huizer
Do you not realise the impact of the UK economy going *pop* on the EU’s doorstep ?
It will make Lehman’s look like a tea party.
January 23, 2019
One thing they didn’t cover on the news today was the suspension of all content on the Integrity Initiative website(the government’s propaganda programme to persuade you that the Russians are coming-with a sideswipe at Corbyn/Labour),as it has been totally exposed for what it is and rendered useless.
What will the 40p per word hacks do now to scratch a living?!
January 23, 2019
Meanwhile in the real world, Dyson moves to Singapore. P & O Ferries switch their base to Cyprus. European Medicines Agency leaves London for Amsterdam – hundreds of jobs lost. Sony’s HQ takes the same route. The lights are going out all over the UK economy. Project Fear? Call it Project Reality.
January 23, 2019
What a bizarre post Henry. Unemployment in the real-world UK economy has fallen to 4% representing hundreds of thousands of new jobs since the referendum, yet you mention a few dozen jobs lost due to companies changing their accounting HQ for financial reasons. Just incidentally the European Medicines Agency, a EU organisation, has a high percentage of staff who are EU citizens anyway.
January 23, 2019
Henry may be Andyâs Plan B: attempting a second Personâs Post in the guise of someone else, remaining to claim they are now better informed after failing in 2016.
January 23, 2019
Dyson has been clear he is moving his HQ in order to focus on his most important market – Asia. If the continuity remain view were right and it’s all to do with brexit, surely he would be moving to the EU? Singapore isn’t in the EU. Actually it’s at the bottom of the cliff with no EU deal. (I suspect the threat of a Marxist govt is part of the reason also. Private businesses like Dyson could be wrecked by that. Look at Venezuela).
In other news the number of job re-locations in the City due to brexit turns out to be a fraction of the Project Fear scares (and is far lower than the new jobs created since the referendum):-
Investment banks radically scaling back estimates of Brexit job losses
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/investment-banks-radically-scaling-back-estimates-brexit-job-losses-094803896.html
January 23, 2019
On the other hand, 650,000 new UK companies formed during 2018, representing many hundreds of thousands of new jobs that don’t make the headlines.
January 23, 2019
Who do not trade with the EU and therefore do not need to be burdened by EU regulations designed for a more disparate market than the UK
January 23, 2019
But the interests of the 94% of UK businesses that are not involved in exporting 12% of UK GDP to the EU don’t count for much as far as top level Tories are concerned, in fact they haven’t counted for much since the 1950’s … to repeat part of an earlier comment:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/01/18/the-german-establishment-wants-the-uk-to-stay-in-the-eu-of-course-they-do/#comment-989306
“If you asked me to explain why they have been pursuing this patently foolish policy for the past six decades then I could only conjecture that it was connected with the post war pressure to âExport or dieâ:
https://www.britishpathe.com/video/export-or-die
while maintaining a fixed exchange rate, coupled with the decline of the Empire with its trade preference and also the US strategic error over Suez.”
It really is worth watching that one minute propaganda video from 1946, during a period of genuine “austerity” not the highly diluted modern version that people like Andy whine about.
January 23, 2019
Greece. Spain. Italy. Portugal. All bankrupt
France. Rioting on the streets. Macron clinging to Merkel for dear life like a puppy to its owner. A social economy so riddled with inefficiencies that the French people elect a reformer who then disappears to Brussels and Berlin every 5 minutes
The UK is a titan in Europe.
January 23, 2019
I can’t resist: of Titanic proportion? Do you have the same sense of humor as Boris’s?
January 23, 2019
The governments of two the six original members, Italy and France, are slinging mud at each other every day. One day the French call Matteo Salvini the new Mussolini, the next day Luigi di Maio blames French colonialism for poverty in Africa.
Peace and Love.
January 23, 2019
And for the mess in Libya-France’s participation in it being allegedly to stop the introduction of Gaddafi’s proposed gold dinar and the impact it would have on the franc afrique.
There’s also a row over access to Libyan oil and rival peace formats-the Russians are backing the Italians(who under the new government are aligned with Russia on Libya).Macron’s had his nose put further out of joint by the Russians installing a “proconsul” in the former French colony of Central African Republic.
January 23, 2019
Sir Humphry and the Foreign Office will be most pleased.
Yes Minister – YouTube. And it never gets old. đ
January 23, 2019
Well Henry just you wait until we have corporation tax at about 12% and watch them all come scuttling back.
January 23, 2019
Not with Hammond in the Treasury. Heâd be advised to make tentative enquiries about a career change.
January 23, 2019
Henry ever thought that these companies may be leaving because of continuing and never-ending uncertainty.
Given so many Mp’s want to continue this uncertainty for many more years by extending article 50, and extended transition periods, when what they really mean are more and more negotiations, is it any wonder companies are getting fed up with confusing information and guesswork.
Given WTO terms are our backstop position, this uncertainty could have been resolved if the Government had set the tariff rates 2 years ago, then everyone would know what the default position was at the outset, likewise would the EU.
Whilst you can never be certain of anything in business, our Politicians and remainers politicians in particular, are simply and deliberately adding fuel to the project fear fire.
January 23, 2019
Agreed, uncertainty is the biggest problem and May’s Withdrawal Agreement is not a “deal” that gives any short term certainty at all.
WTO must be kept on the table if there is any chance of getting the EU to fall in line…
January 23, 2019
Ah ! But we do know what the ‘new’ (sic) tariff rates are. They same as the old one’s. Hint, hint.
January 23, 2019
@Henry Carter; It is Project Fear, unless Remain supporters can prove that non of those moves would have taken place anyway.
Dyson (a prominent Leave supporter) has said the move has nothing to do with Brexit but changing markets locations, the move appears to have been employment natural.
The move by P&O is, I suspect, is a flagging issue, not a Brexit issue.
The move by the European Medicines Agency, indeed any European Agency, had to be expected, but that alone does not make Brexit wrong or bad.
January 23, 2019
A reality lit by only 3 examples is shrouded in darkness.
January 23, 2019
One note: the European Medicines Agency is a branch of the EU government that exists to harmonise drugs standards across the EU. Producing and managing these standards in Britain is the already job of the MHRA, who have issued their guidance for Leaving.
As Britain is a net contributor, the costs of the EMA are paid for by the British taxpayer. As the agency doubles up on work already done by our existing civil servants it should be expected we won’t pay for it after Brexit, anymore than we would pay for MEPs.
January 23, 2019
Dyson was always a foreign company masquerading as a British one. Dyson is simply a businessman who has a chance to move to a more sympathetic environment than Europe.
January 23, 2019
Dyson has seen May and Hammond’s Fake Brexit and every higher tax Britain.
January 23, 2019
The company is wholly owned by a UK citizen although is a successful global business. We should pay careful attention to the views of such talented entrepreneurs.
January 23, 2019
Ah yes Dyson, who moved his HQ to Singapore, a country well-known as a leading member of the EU – oh wait, it isn’t.
It looks rather as though he suspects Britain won’t leave the EU and has therefore pre-emptively taken his company out.
January 25, 2019
Good one!
January 23, 2019
Rien
Hmm Dyson is a large company as are most MULTI nationals, the clue is in the name
Dyson invested in 2018 in future technologies and products, including a new ÂŁ200m campus at Hullavington, UK
January 25, 2019
@ Libertarian
I know, Iknow. Can we see his personal and corporate tex returns? Of course I do not mean this, the man is entitled to his privacy like anyone else. He is just not the patriotic hero some seem to see.
January 23, 2019
Correct ! đ
So it’s not just the UK then, it’s the WHOLE of Europe or, to put it another way since we have not left the EU yet, the EU !
Top banana – NOT !! đ
January 23, 2019
I wonder how much of this decision is due to the new momentum type Labour party with an anti-business leader and deputy who want to give employees all the control of running a private business. I know their pronouncements affect my future plans and I’m a tiny business so when Dyson and his advisors do future SWOT analysis perhaps they were busy watching May screw up the Conservatives chances and that near miss in 2017 forced their hand.
January 23, 2019
Henry carter
meanwhile in the real world more than a dozen new factories have opened , 10 more are planned and Dutch and German companies have relocated to the UK .
1) Where were you in the last 40 years when companies closed, moved and downsized? Was that the EU fault too? Or as I suspect the general ebb and flow of business
2) As for jobs there are 830,000 unfilled full time jobs in the UK currently so I wouldn’t worry too much about that
January 24, 2019
Henry Carter
300 new jobs: British cleaning equipment manufacturer Numatic, famous for its Henry vacuums, set to create 300 jobs with major expansion of its Somerset factory
ebb and flow
January 23, 2019
John
“It also shows that the authorities attempts to slow and damage the economy with a series of tax attacks on homes and cars, and with the slowing of credit”
Are you saying these were deliberate policies aimed to harm the economy? Maybe to help derail Brexit?
January 23, 2019
The levers of state and economy are firmly in the hands of those who have committed themselves to a particular view of Brexit. Whitehall, FO, Treasury, HMG, BBC, MSM, CBI – all have nailed their flag to Remain.
Not just their judgement but their characters are exposed. They run the risk of being proved not just fools but cowards. Is it inconceivable that these prophets of doom will make use of their power and privilege to ensure their predictions arenât falsified?
January 23, 2019
Yes. Of course.
January 23, 2019
Is there no way these people can be brought to account? This is acting against the national interest and people need to wake up to the Cabal elite that runs this country. I’m talking jail time for those that betray their country (May & Co) and the stripping of office for those Civil Servants who actively work against the people. Bin them all.
Rant over – thank you.
January 23, 2019
Nick
And these utter utter buffoons masquerading as Tory MP’s are now talking about charging us ÂŁ1000 to park at work. They are all totally deluded
January 23, 2019
One finds in my part of the country, at least, we are not divided as Remainers bark on about. They wish.
Bring on the People’s Vote! Watch them cry. The vote will increase for Leave fantastically.
Then perhaps they should do the honourable thing and resign from our Parliament which they have so abused to the point where it could become a total boil in need of permanent lancing.
They have rubbished every single facet of democratic behaviour. They are not far right or far left just far out and not in keeping
January 23, 2019
Nice spin. Unemployment went up by 8,000.
8,000 people facing problems paying for their homes and food because of Tory Brexit.
In the real world, Brexit can be summed up in one word: Dyson.
Repky Unemployment fell to 4%
January 23, 2019
Still waiting for those 500,000 job losses in the year following a Leave vote Andy ?
January 23, 2019
@JR reply; Nice switch, from @Andy’s real world numbers to statistical percentages…
January 23, 2019
A fall is a fall, whether it is numerical or a percentage. Unless his figure was for a specific region, age group or long-term unemployed, his assertion is false. Seeing as most of his âfactsâ are anything but, I expect that he is telling porkies,as per usual.
January 23, 2019
Look at Dyson’s statement. He is moving HQ to focus on Asia. If Dyson were moving due to brexit he would be moving to the EU. The threat of Venezuela in the north Sea with Corbyn must have something to do with it also.
January 23, 2019
Another large Japanese consumer electronics company has moved its head office to The Netherlands. It affects 10 jobs out of 30 jobs.
Other firms moving their head office there are renting an accommodation address.
Keep calm and carry on.
January 23, 2019
Bro in-law lamented the Brexit result.
“Our jobs will go abroad”
His job was entirely about setting up factories in the EU and Asia and closing down UK ones. All that’s left here is a back office anyway.
“Voting Brexit won’t make those factories come back.”
No. But people aren’t happy about the imported competition for the jobs left. A double whammy to them.
For every executive EU enthusiast there is an army of redundant and dissatisfied.
You simply cannot do this to an enfranchised population and expect there not to be consequences.
January 23, 2019
Only it doesnât just affect 10 jobs now does it?
Because those 10 head office jobs – usually good jobs – then support many other jobs in many other businesses.
Still – I suppose you are happy for other people to lose their jobs so long as you get the economically illiterate, ideologically incoherent Brexit that you voted for.
You will not be so happy when Brexit starts to adversely affect YOU. Which, eventually, it will.
January 24, 2019
But employment is at record highs
Unemployment is falling
Unlike eurozone countries,,
January 23, 2019
Dyson is leaving because he is concerned Brexit won’t happen or Corbyn becomes PM.
He has repeatedly complained about the bias against his company by the EU. Another of your flat earth comments.
January 23, 2019
@ Andy
Unemployment is maybe too low, And that with some 2.5 million foreigners in the labour force. Suppose they leave. I do not envy BoE policymakers.
January 23, 2019
We should be looking intensively at the unemployed and investigate their skills and capabilities, what areas of the country are they living in? Can they relocate? What training do they need to take available work in the area?
January 25, 2019
@ e-Tracy.
Define “we” who exactly should be doing this if it is not already done (at some expense, as far as I know). It is easier to bring jobs to where people live than the other way around. That is why it is stupid to risk large scale foreign controlled sources of employment like Nissan or JLR. They will not leave right away, but if they become uncompetitive, things must give. Moving car plants is not economical. But that does not eman that “sunk costs” dominate investment planning.
January 25, 2019
âWeâ is the government.
If they do this they donât make it open knowledge.
They donât concentrate on those falling through the cracks.
They donât tell students which subjects have big employment gaps to encourage further training in them, I have three children and none were advised. I know many teens who took on sports science degrees even though I tried to talk them out of it, now retraining as accountants and marketing executives to name just two because there were no jobs at the end of their course and ÂŁ27,000 debt.
January 23, 2019
Andy needs to get a sense of perspective.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/22/uk-pay-growth-employment-weekly-earnings
“… the number of people in employment continued to rise following an increase of 141,000 to a record high of 32.54 million in the three months to November.”
8000 divided by 32.54 million = ?
Come on, Andy, do the sum … maybe I have to help you, it comes to 0.02%.
And does Andy have any idea about the rate of “churn” in the jobs market?
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/08/02/overseas-firms-back-city-by-signing-for-new-offices/#comment-882347
âIn total, therefore, around 5.2 million jobs in the UK economy were either created or destroyed each year between 1998 and 2008 âŠâ
That would have been about 14,000 a day, so Andy’s 8000 would be equivalent to the natural churn over about 14 hours.
January 23, 2019
“because of Tory Brexit”
Thanks to the instinctively anti-Brexit Tory who is in charge of it the Tory Brexit is turning into a pile of dung.
However it would be preferable to a Labour Brexit whereby the EU would still control our external trade policy and large segments of our internal economy, and without us even having the 13% of votes that we have now as a member state.
January 23, 2019
Denis
I am not voting Tory again.
No. Just no.
January 23, 2019
Andy the mad
there are 830,000 unfilled full time jobs in the UK , we have the highest number in employment EVER and unemployment is 4%
But you can send your kids to Greece to get a job….. oh wait
January 23, 2019
Hang on. Havenât you spent the last 40 years saying that there are no jobs for Britons because migrants are taking them.
And now you are saying they there are loads of jobs and not enough people to do them. As most of you have lots of time on your hands perhaps you could do some of them? Wetherspoons would have you.
January 24, 2019
@Desperation Andy – If you bothered to look beyond the BBC click bait you would have noted in the same article that the number of job vacancies rose by 10,000 to a record high of 853,000, that unemployment is 68,000 lower than the assessment point the year previously and that wage growth outpaces inflation.
Or perhaps you are blind to any positive developments.
January 23, 2019
These outcomes are also the opposite of what socialists like John Redwood and Jeremy Corbyn claim is going on, when they endlessly plead for more government borrowing, more government spending and even laxer monetary policy.
The UK is doing well because have a strong supply side and one of the free-est trading regimes in the world Not yet free enough, but if we Leave the EU we’ll be able to abolish tariffs completely.
Few however will agree with John Redwood that slowing house price inflation is a bad thing.
In order for young people to have a chance of buying a home, house prices need to be falling, not continuing to rise at more or less the same rate as inflation as a whole.
Neither is slowing consumer borrowing and falling car imports a bad thing at time when households have already spent more than they’ve earned for a record 8 quarters in row, banks are looking dangerously over lent in insecure credit and the government still has a significant budget deficit and two trillion pound National Debt.
John Redwood seems to be reporting, as it if it’s news, the fact that the Remainers are seeking to take advantage of his vote against the the Withdrawal Agreement, as a means to postpone us Leaving the EU.
Every man and his dog told him that’s what would happen, and it’s the reason Remainers voted against it.
I can tell him that the chances of us Leaving the EU on March 29th without the Withdrawal Agreement are zero.
Remainers are on strong ground now to delay Brexit. There’s definitely a majority in Parliament for it, and there’s even majority in the polls for delaying Remaining in, the event that Mrs May lost the vote.
In fact, apart from the Deal itself, the only option the polls show a majority against, is ‘NO Deal’ and the latter shows a bigger majority against than accepting the Deal
I would be happy to bet Mr Redwood ÂŁ100,000 that we will NOT Leave the EU on March 29th . The UK will postpone its’ departure date. Then the uncertainty really will start to bite.
January 23, 2019
We’ve had uncertainty for over 2.5 years because of Mays shenanigans. Deliberately going behind the scenes to collude with Civil Serpents, foreign leaders and the EU to sit on the same side of the table with them to come up with this punishment withdrawal agreement so we would want to return to their beloved EU superstate in the next budget round. Problem is and always was, May isn’t that bright. The whole thing is so obviously choreographed but no longer a compliant public taking in their fake news on the msm. Analogue politicos in a digital world! We want WTO on 29th March like the rest of the world and already the majority of our trade!
January 23, 2019
Bear Lloyd
What is your real name? Someone will take your bet.
January 23, 2019
Sorry mate, but I stopped reading the moment you called our kind host a Socialist. Could have got away with it if it had been the present incumbent at Number 10.
January 23, 2019
Of course it is important to remember that the UK is still a member of the European Union. The UK has not yet left this most restrictive of democratic, legislative political and economic straitjackets. So, what exactly is going on here?
Why is the UK roaring ahead of other EU member states in terms of FID, employment growth, business start-ups, GDP growth etc?
Do foreign companies now view the UK as a safe haven? A stable place to do business as opposed to the union infected, sclerotic social economy basket-case that is France?
Are they shunning Germany as the German taxpayer is facing down the barrel of potential losses totalling trillions of sovereign debt defaults from Italy, Spain and other EU nations the German taxpayer’s been propping?
And Ireland? What will happen when their favourable business tax arrangements are removed by the EU?
The formula for good business is simple. Flexible labour markets. Low cost of doing business. Anti-punitive corporation tax framework. Stable legal system that protects and promotes private property rights and the encourages profit generation thereby stimulating further capital investment.
All of this would be put at risk if we stay in the EU and if the UK electorate decides to elect an authoritarian, hard left government. Both outcomes would be intolerable though the latter would be an expression of the democratic will of the people and for which we would pay a very heavy price in terms of lost freedoms, destruction of free-speech and the bankruptcy of the UK
The immeasurably vile Remain clan in the Commons and their dripping hypocrisy, stupidity, lies and ignorance will eventually be exposed for their charlatan behaviour and infantile tantrums.
January 23, 2019
Absolutely, the EU is a sham democracy, the grossly expensive twin location EU Parliament is a pantomine, the power lies with the unelected Commission and the Council of Ministers where small countries or region of a country can veto our interests or their collective interests.
January 23, 2019
Dominic
Very good post. Germany only just missed going into recession in the last quarter and the ECB have printed nearly 4.2 trillion to keep the E U afloat with all the unsecured loans etc. The EU natives ar getting restless and the cracks are appearing the their train has not slowed up and the wheels are coming off.
January 23, 2019
Language (English). Contract Law (English). Own Currency. Respected. Despite the goings on in the HoC and the HoL. Strong & Stable country. Despite a government that is completely the opposite. And we are less likely to pick business’s pockets compared to the EU in order to finance a Marxist dream.
January 23, 2019
Keep up the good work, JR. There is a growing awareness that the globalists are inimical to personal freedom, and to opportunities for jobs and trade.
An article in the Telegraph today highlights the ‘stinkbomb’ that Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, thew into the cosy, complacent and self-serving agenda of Davos. The Remainers are of the same mindset. Your blog yesterday on the ‘Revolt of the Motorists’ in France is symptomatic of this unfolding consciousness among electorates that they have been hoodwinked for too long. A new dawn is emerging.
January 23, 2019
An online report by the Coventry Evening Telegraph quotes Richard Harrington, a Minister in the Department for Business, saying that Jaguar Land Rover “could close”. This is utterly irresponsible. Like Mr Gove’s ill judged remarks about diesels, which contributed to a sharp decline in sales of cars with diesel engines, Mr Harrington’s quoted remark risks having a similar effect. He seems ignorant of the fact that the Range Rover brand is one of the most successful premium priced cars globally and is priced to withstand adverse FX fluctuations. It is the real profit and cash driver of JLR. Perhaps you should have a quiet word with him and advise him to calm down before he does more damage to JLRs UK sales.
January 23, 2019
The only thing these people should fear is the civil unrest that will happen if we donât leave on the 29th March this year
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/224908
January 23, 2019
In due course, Project Fear Remainers may qualify for anti-depression therapy funded by the EU.
January 23, 2019
Your diary tells us the good news. The media only gives us the bad news. All the momentum is with the Remainers who tell us endlessly that ‘crashing out’ would be a total disaster. Unless the Leavers can get a hearing on tv and radio, confront the Remainers, and start telling the Country that leaving with ‘no deal’ is perfectly OK, we are doomed to stay in the EU.
Where is the ERG group? – they are conspicuous with their silence. How can the BBC keep getting way with putting 4 Remainers against 1 Leaver on ‘Question Time?
We are heading for disaster. Help!
ColinD.
January 23, 2019
I heard this morning that sales of holidays abroad next summer are up on last year. There’s obviously more people out there who don’t believe that planes will fall out of the sky on March 30th.
Also, for the first time this morning I heard a senior cabinet minister, Liam Fox, say what I have been saying – that by holding a ‘no deal’ Brexit over the head of the EU, they will eventually negotiate a sensible Withdrawal Agreement that we can all live with. Now it’s a matter of waiting to see who blinks first if our trump card isn’t snatched away by the Remainers.
January 23, 2019
I think the Brexiters have been naĂŻve and very amateurish in their promoting of Brexit. They have been trounced by the Remainer press and politicians. Where were the organised rebuttals? Where the organised and coordinated and effective presence on social media? Where the social media campaigns? They all seem to have been disjointed, too small and therefore not nearly as effective as they could have been. There is also the problem that there are too many different factions amongst the Leavers with stupid animosities preventing cooperation. All that should have been cast aside, and one huge effort organised with military precision, and properly funded launched early on.
Needless to say the Remainers are well funded and organised. Freedom has to be fought for every generation and the freedom lovers have been caught napping, bigtime.
January 23, 2019
The disconnect between the Establishment and the general public is one reason why the vote in favour of UK independence came as such a shock to the Remainers. In the BBC group think mindset, their opinions are the only ones that matter.
Reminds me a bit of Nicolae CeauÈescu’s disconnect with the ordinary Romanians epitomised by his famous last speech followed by his arrest, trial and execution.
January 23, 2019
They say “We cannot find the quality of Leaver to join the panels. There are not enough of them.”
Yet Ms Abbot and Ms Lucas make the grade.
January 23, 2019
Has John Redwood been invited onto Question Time recently? Has Daniel Hannan? Boris Johnson? Andrea Leadsom? Giselda Stuart? Frank Field? Kate Hoey? Ruth Lea? Lord Digby Jones? Zac Goldsmith? I can’t recall them being on the program.
January 23, 2019
It is appalling that in Parliament and the establishment we have a large number who would damage the UK and democracy in their drive to overturn the result of a democratic referendum.
I hope that in Parliament at least we have a cull at the next general election. Their treachery should be highlighted at the time of the election.
January 23, 2019
Whatâs the plan for stopping the no deal bill? Is it to withhold the queenâs consent? If so, why is this plan not simply stopped dead in its tracks?
January 23, 2019
Davos is beyond my ken.
A gathering mid Winter of bankers and the very rich, enjoying their wealth whilst forecasting financial gloom and doom.
Do they see brexit as a loss of their influence and control as does Brussels.
January 23, 2019
Davos is a total irrelevance to getting anything achieved.More important will be the April St Petersburg International Economic Forum(where Mr Putin’s guest of honour will be President Xi and,following that,the Second Belt & Road Initiative Forum(where President Xi’s guest of honour will be Mr Putin) as they promote the Greater Eurasia project – which is the Big Idea of our time.
January 23, 2019
A woman “entrepreneur” on Today programme rolling the whole lot together- women are being unequally whacked by the government due to Brexit, women can only put together small businesses because they’re being whacked by somebody or another, they can’t afford to move to Singapore because they have children to feed and clothe so why should Dyson be able to? blah blah.
Eye rollingly dreadful stuff from the independent BBC
January 23, 2019
If the BBC want to give airtime to dotty opinions, fair enough, but it’s the fact that that they are aired without challenge because they conform to BBC “groupthink”. If an anyone goes against the received opinion the presenters interrupt them incessantly to obscure their point.
It’s time to scrap the Licence Fee, the BBC is beyond redemption.
January 23, 2019
Long time ago Bob. But we need a party whose manifesto reflects this.
UKIP comes to mind.
January 23, 2019
And yet, as was shown in 2015, women and the disabled were “unequally whacked” by EUVAT, as they ran the majority of affected small- and micro- businesses. The same groups will be “unequally whacked” by Article11 and Article13 in 2019, for the same reason as they still represent the majority of small writers/publishers.
If women can only put together small businesses – as this woman apparently said and I strongly disagree – you’d think she’d be more concerned about (and aware of) the range of EU policies that adversely affect the sector.
January 23, 2019
Sir JR
This is good news in terms of employment and real wage growth particularly at the lower end.
But we still need to work on productivity and what is important here is, how many of the new jobs carry more than the minimum wage?
January 23, 2019
Equally important is how many of these jobs are full time. The ONS definition of employed considers you to be employed if you work for just one hour a week.
Reply Most are full time. Indeed female full time employment increased and part time decreased in the most recent numbers with a good net gain
January 23, 2019
hans/peter parsons
In 2018 Output per worker rose by 1.5% the biggest rise in productivity in last 3 years
12% of the workforce are part time which means that 88% are full time ( i.e. 37 hours week plus)
The average part time worker does 16 hours per week, oh and Peter its a personal lifestyle choice to work flexibly ( its one of the EU workers directives you are in favour of)
8% of the workforce are on minimum wage
We use the EU ILO measurement framework to assess unemployment/employment
There are currently 830,000 unfilled full time jobs in the UK
The average UK salary is ÂŁ27,300 wages rose last quarter by an average of 3.4%
January 24, 2019
Libertarian,
These figures do not tell the whole picture. For example, the self-employed are not included in the average salary calculation, so therefore, if jobs previously done by employees are now done by gig economy workers, the wages associated with those jobs now no longer contribute to the calculation. Many of those jobs are at the lower end of the wage scale, and if you drop some of the lower end input values out of the calculation of a statistical average, the average of what remains goes up.
It’s worth also noting that minimum wage legislation does not apply to the self-employed, so some people who are self-employed end up earning below the minimum wage.
January 23, 2019
Fear 2. For yesterday and today we had :=
Which magazine critical of airlines for not warning passengers that the EU will nan flights to and from the UK after the summer if there is a no deal. Presumably we then close British airspace and they can’t fly to America.
BBC lunchtime chat show. Labour MP says that the IT systems are not ready for no deal. The HMRC says that they are.
Deputy Met commissioner says we will not be able to track terrorists if we have no deal. Presumably because we can’t talk to the French, Belgians and Germans?
MPs say that businesses in their area are suffering because of Brexit. It turns out that these are car businesses suffering from the diesel farce and Hammond’s taxes, just like German car makers while both are still in the EU.
It goes on none stop. All coordinated from No 10 and Millbank.
January 23, 2019
It is difficult to argue with Dyson moving his corporate HQ to Singapore on any grounds other than patriotism. Clearly his business has achieved massive growth in the Far East but not so in Europe. Being involved in some business in that region of the world, I can understand why that has happened.
It’s a fact that growth in the developing world is dramatically stronger than in Europe and all research predicts this trend to accelerate.
Frankly, Europe is being left behind in the global economy and the protectionist EU is largely responsible for it lagging behind.
Brexit should an opportunity for the UK to break out and refocus our efforts elsewhere. But to do that we must be free of the strictures imposed by Brussels. Slavishly aligning our economy with that of the EU will not achieve anything. I’m not talking about a low tax low skill regime : We are well placed in the areas of research and development and in particular our Financial sector is truly a Global business and growing. The very last thing London needs is a Transaction tax as proposed by Brussels. All the business would migrate to New York and Singapore.
When the Euro inevitably fails and there is a return to multiple European Currencies, London will pick up a large proportion of the additional currency trades and legal services work. The future for the UK is bright but EU protectionism and Corbyn-style Socialism is not the way to prosper in the 21st Century.
January 23, 2019
On the general subject of Brexit, I found it very disconcerting a couple of days ago to see a video clip of Mark Francois stating that, in order “to try and move things along”, the ERG’s minimum position is to secure the removal of the Irish backstop from the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement.
Let us say that Labour won the next election, but the Conservative Government issued a warning that letting them into Downing Street would cause the break-up of the UK. If Labour then agreed to let the Conservatives remain in Downing Street in return for the removal of the warning, would their voters not feel cheated?
January 23, 2019
Any MP who does not want to leave on March 29th with no strings attached is a Remainer by another name.
January 23, 2019
The BBC et al. continue with their projects Fear, Terror and Apocalypse with stories of gridlock, shortages and more, citing also along with the Daily Mail today the company Dyson’s move of some administration to Singapore. Others mention companies opening offices outside the UK. They all suggest that they are leaving a potential disaster zone.
However, if business in general and in particular believe this they would surely be laying people off all over the place yet employment continues to rise. Why would any business, if it thought the future was bleak continue to hire new workers?
We are being lied to again.
Let’s leave the EU free and clear and with our money safely in England. We do not need a deal before we do so. We must leave on 29th March. If the EU wants a free trade deal thereafter, they will be welcome to ask.
January 23, 2019
Great news on the jobs front, despite our own government’s attempts to derail growth – But I don’t see any of this good news being trumpeted by our beloved BBC…
It is no use having good news if nobody gets to hear about it…
January 23, 2019
drunken parliament, bare-bones parliament. Brexit wrecking parliament should be the description of his one.
Economic collapse on vote leave never materialised. The group that wrote a letter to the press at that time never apologised for their error. Yet they still expect to be believed on their no-deal scenarios.
January 23, 2019
Is it just me, or is nobody grasping the reality that on the 30th March nothing has changed. All EU law has been written into UK law by the Withdrawal Act and the tax and duty rates can be set at anything we want so there is no immediate need to alter them.
Why is a senior police officer bleating about the rise of terrorism due to non sharing of intelligence? We can choose to continue to share just as we do now. Brexit doesn’t change this.
We had no hard border during the troubles so why should we impose one now? If Ireland and Ulster don’t put one up, then there won’t be one.
This reeks of EU and Remainer scare mongering designed to stop Brexit for their own ends. Understandable on the EU given the money that get from us, but one has to wonder what the Remainers have to gain? Just asking…
January 23, 2019
So Mr rees Mogg is to back Mrs May! Well well
Reply I don’t think that is what he said. He said he would look again at the WA if the backstop were removed and there was something new about the money.
January 23, 2019
Mr Redwood, there is so much else wrong with the WA which would result in us having vassal state status that removing the backstop and tweaking the money amounts would simply not be good enough. Not Brexit. Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Dorries, for example, are being won over by Project Fear apparently. That is not good and does not honour the referendum result. Tory toast.
January 23, 2019
Moggs expectations and predictions are so unrealistic from a business point of view it makes no sense spending too much time on them as is the case with the ERG predictions 15 years out
January 24, 2019
JRM seems correct to me.
But then you are a totally pro EU person hans
January 23, 2019
And STOP reducing the nutritional values in ALL foods. Repeat ALL! Including sugar. and fat. Idiots!!!
January 23, 2019
A bit off piste but highly pertinent because it explains the unacceptability of the WA and our teams naivity in even allowing it to be presented.
In 2016 when addressing EU leaders M Barnier said:-
“I’ll have done my job if, in the end the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”
Do you need any further convincing that this was not a negotiation but a pre ordained plan to make Brexit
untenable. I would ask you to stand up in the commons prefedably at PMs questions today and ask if the PM was aware of both Barnier’s and the EU’s plan A when setting out on the WA negotiations. In doing so, slowly and very clearly quote Barnier so the whole house knows of this level of insincerity in the EU and that an acceptable outcome was impossible.
This revelation comes from Daniel Hanahan’s blog today. Talk to him on the subject. I speculate whether May was aware of this and as a remainer went along with it in anticipation of remaining.
January 23, 2019
I listened to the Today show this morning for the first time in ages. The bias towards Remain was almost constant and blatant.
The BBC openly referred to a second referendum as the “People’s Vote” and there was hardly any mention of the good employment data.
I will again write to my MP about this propaganda in the hope it does some good.
January 23, 2019
There is also a petition:
Revoke the BBC’s Royal Charter.
The BBC has a Charter obligation to be independent in fulfilment of its mission. It has repeatedly shown itself incapable of providing impartial reportage on major political issues. The BBC was established when there was no effective media choice. The licence fee is abhorrent in today’s media world.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/226446
January 23, 2019
Let us not dodge the fact that “…the authorities attempts to slow and damage the economy” means the work of Chancellor Hammond.
Once the UnBrexit Activities Committee meets, he ought to be amongst the first punished!
January 23, 2019
Unemployment falling? Disgusting, I blame Brexit.
January 23, 2019
And the last thing we need is Peter Bone cracking stupid jokes at PMQ’s. This isn’t the time for comedy. We are seeing democracy being flushed down the pan and Bone’s indulging in banter and repartee with the one person who’s doing the flushing
It’s all too pathetic for words
Where’s our Eurosceptic leader? Where?
January 23, 2019
Some of us are very concerned by Chairman of the ERG addressing the Bruges Group claiming that “reality about the Irish Back Stop is breaking out, which could increase support for the (May Proposed) Withdrawal Agreement” This after the EU said it would likely impose a hard Border in Ireland.
I would point out that the details of the (May Proposed) Withdrawal Agreement are unacceptable even if Ireland did not exist, it contains No Deal on trade and it is clearly BRINO as it says in the text :-
“… to maintain as close a special and deep relationship …. alignment with the Customs Union and Single Market”. That has nothing to do with LeavEU – and now the olls are indicationg WTO Brexit is leading.
January 23, 2019
OK ..if businesses are so terrifiedof uncertainty let them dwell for a second or two on the uncertainty that they have wilfully inflicted on ordinary workers for at least the last twenty years. âHire and Fireâ.
Where was the certainty for all those JLR workers? Where was the certainty for all those workers who were constantly exhorted to embrace change? How about the certainty for all those working in the âgig economyâ and âzero hour â contracts?
Ah…uncertainty was a good thing when it suited and now they are using it as a stick to beat us with.
Who wouldnât like a life of certainty?
January 23, 2019
A fine old mess Theresa May and Leo Varadkar have managed to create together – the one because she wants a pretext to keep us under the thumb of the EU to placate the likes of the CBI, the other because he wants a pretext to keep us under the thumb of the EU to limit damage to the economy of the Irish Republic, which could lose proportionately more than any other country if the UK is not kept under the thumb of the EU.
Hence on November 26th 2017:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-border-brexit-latest-theresa-may-customs-union-phil-hogan-northern-a8076271.html
“Brexit: Remain in customs union and single market to solve border issue, Ireland’s European commissioner tells May”
Now after the absurd and extreme intransigence of the Irish government over the border we have the EU in all its bureaucratic and legalistic inflexibility insisting that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal which essentially does that then the Irish government will have to fortify the border even though neither they nor the UK wish to do that:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46961982
“No-deal Brexit ‘means hard border’ – European Commission”
“Speaking later in the DĂĄil (Irish parliament) Mr Varadkar said the Irish government would have “a real dilemma” if the UK leaves without a deal:
“We would have to negotiate an agreement on customs and regulations that meant full alignment so there would be no hard border.”
Well, what really matters is that goods carried across the land border into the Republic and so potentially onwards into the rest of the EU Single Market continue to conform to EU requirements, it is simply not necessary for that purpose that all goods in circulation in Northern Ireland or in the UK continue to conform to EU requirements:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/01/21/70-days-to-independence-day/#comment-990003
With some exemptions, so that for example it would not be an offence under either UK or Irish law if somebody took across a small quantity of goods which did not comply with EU rules just for their personal or family use, not for resale, or if a farmer moved his cows from one of his fields to another on the other side of the border.
Of course it does not help to sort out how to manage the border sensibly when the Irish government likes to pretend that at present there is no border and the UK government likes to accept that what is really just a molehill should be treated as a mountain.
January 23, 2019
Channel 4 News anchor has just said everyone in UK is looking for an extension to A50 and asked Angela Merkel if she would grant one?!
Sorrel – when we come out -if we come out. He would extend A50.
I think what I was told before Christmas that Parliament has had this in the plans all along for the past six months, and this dither and delay is going to hurt our Country and keep this awful status quo going on forever while the EU make decisions with us having no say after May didnât replace our Commissioner.
January 23, 2019
She also stupidly gave up our rotating Presidency too (these decisions are beginning to look like complete incompetence). I was told in 2016 our MPs didnât want and werenât able to run the UK anymore – get our key vote and veto back tomorrow if this stink is going to happen for much longer. Otherwise we are dead ducks.
January 23, 2019
Take No Deal off the table says Reeves, what the heck is going on, if the EU wonât give us a withdrawal agreement, then what is off the table is the money they need off us. I thought the deal was just the withdrawal agreement (that is currently bad for the UK), just an exit agreement not the actual deal this is just so lame, what exactly have the Conservatives agreed to?
The EU is seeing us as pathetic why do they need to budge when our Parliament is shooting itself in the foot. Hannahâs article on ConHome is an interesting read.
January 24, 2019
“Many in Parliament wish to increase the uncertainties…”. At last someone [JR] states who has been causing the uncertainty while, characteristically their schills accuse ‘Leave’, who have been suffering this hypocritical canard for two-&-a-half years. Thanks.
[O/T]: Much is being attempted with the non-story that P & O is flagging out to Cyprus. Those outside the shipping industry & many within have no idea how little this means. It is not like re-locating a car factory to Slovakia. In commerce & employment it does not have to change a thing; it just weaves past a few regulations.