All wars end with negotiated peace treaties if one side is unable to invade, take over , remove the government of the other and run a military occupation. It now seems clear Ukraine cannot invade and occupy Russia and very unlikely Russia could capture and control Ukraine.
Russia has almost achieved her likely minimum objective for the war, the capture and occupation of a strip of land from her border to Crimea, seized Ā in a previous invasion. Ukraine has occupied a small part of Russia as a bargaining counter.
When Russia took Ukraine she held a referendum which showed strong support for Russian rule. There was no independent observation of whether this was fairly conducted , leaving Ukraine and theĀ West complaining of an illegal seizure. The general response was weak, Ā allowing Russia to assume they had got away with it, to wait their chance to win back some more.
A negotiation would be about the extent of territory that Russia has occupied thatĀ they should retain. For both sides to get something out of the peace it seems likely the settlement would have to allow Russia to keep Crimea and a strip of land to the Russian border. The extend of that strip could be influenced by the views of the people living in the occupied lands, as it would be clearly better if people not wanting to live under Russian government did not have to. There would then need to be better security guarantees for Ukraine against further Russian incursions at a later date. So what are the UK’s options?
- Prepare a peace plan and take it Washington immediately after the Presidential election, having talked extensively to Ukraine first. If it is President Trump, work with him on a good peace plan and help him assuming his plan makes sense. If it is President Harris persuade her current policy is not working. She needs to change tack as soon as she is elected and may entertain a peace plan.
- Allow current policy to continue but start to distance the UK fromĀ it, as it is clearly not going to work. The UK could point out it has given disproportionately to the cause and expects FranceĀ to take over its role of major donor and supporter. This is a crisis which matters more to the EU and arises in part out of EU actions prior to 2014. It was primarily of course caused by an illegal Russian invasion. The UK budget position argues for us spending less andĀ being less exposed to this conflict.
- Continue as we are.
- Work behind the scenes to get allies led by the US to think through a better strategy for helping Ukraine whilst seeking to ensure it remains a Ukraine/Russia war and not a NATO/Russia war. It is difficult to know what this might look like and will be riskier and entail more UK commitment.
I favour the first option.
October 14, 2024
Good morning.
This war started when the West set about to coup the then President who was duly elected by the people. It was in two phases. The taking of Crimea, and now the land that links Russia to Crimea. Russia will not let go of its gains that much is clear. So it comes down to whether or not Ukraine and the West are prepared to fight on.
We do not know who will be the next POTUS. Once we do, I think we will see how this plays out. If it is President Trump then I would suspect he will puch for a ceasefire. If it Vice President Harris, expect more money and more lives to be thrown into the meat grinder.
Looking back, I wounder how many of those protesting and waving EU flags ever thought that would come to this ? Not many I would guess.
October 14, 2024
Well, somehow our host suggests we now believe Putin will abide by international agreements and law. When did we become so naive? Wasn’t there an agreed deal between Russia and newly independent Ukraine? Why do we have Russian assassins roaming around Europe and UK murdering residents?
October 14, 2024
Russia will also remove the western presence on the Ukrainian coast west of Crimea to the Romanian border;this will restore access to the Danube delta and navigation to its Serbian ally (and Hungary).
October 14, 2024
You need to look at a map and research the territory that Russia now occupies. Itās not the land bridge.
The war will not continue regardless of who wins theUS Presidency. Itās over – the US is pulling out of Ukraine. They have even instructed Starmer to tell Zelensky that itās over. No Storm Shadows into Russia.
PS the Ukrainians deployed into Kursk are almost all dead. Itās objective, to capture the Kursk Nuclear Power Station within days to hold Russia hostage, failed.
October 14, 2024
The US can’t even defend its alter ego,Israel-I’ve just been reading a report (from a real weapons expert-not one of those stooges put before the TV cameras in the UK) on the limitations of the THAAD system the US is now rushing (together with US operating personnel) to Israel.
As with Russia,the west has vastly underestimated Iran’s technology and its manufacturing capabilities.Plus Iran now also has access to Russia’s most advanced AD and EW systems to help defend its airspace.
Will Schryver,one of the better American geopolitical analysts, last week:”I cannot understand how more people do not fully appreciate that fighting alongside Iran against the empire is not a choice for Russia but an existential imperative.It is also something for which the Russians have feverishly prepared since no later than the summer of 2022.”
I agree, Russia + Iran is geopolitical kryptonite!
October 14, 2024
Iran must be destroyed! By whatever means. It is a foul regime in every sense. Israel is a nuclear power. Iran must NEVER be a nuclear power and Putin is making a terrible mistake by supporting it.
October 14, 2024
I favour the second option.
I donāt believe the USA listens to the UK on such matters. So number one would have little effect.
I donāt want (3) to continue as we are wasting yet more money on a war in a faraway place.
Number 4 again depends on the USA listening to advice from the UK. So I am not sure this would be effective.
October 14, 2024
What actually happens would seem to hang on the kutcome of the US presidential election and subsequent inauguration.
First decide what is achievable. Negotiate a position where neither side loses. Offer incentives to settle, such as a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine. Bolster Ukraine against further incursions with military defensive capability. For Russia offer a gradual return from the status of pariah state and reincorporation in the real world. A process of necessity wearing surgical gloves. I would bet on Trump making a better job of it than Harris. I do not see him needing much Lammy or FCO help. He is only likely to trust Nigel, and with good reason.
October 14, 2024
Your problem there is that Ukraine is already losing and has nothing with which to bargain for a negotiated settlement. It can only surrender. It must remove the clause in its constitution which obliges it to seek NATO membership, and then it must provide Russia with the confidence that it will remain neutral, outside any power bloc, in future. NATO ‘bolstered Ukraine’ with colossal amounts of military assistance from about 2014 onwards, and that has failed, leading to the situation Ukraine is in now. Its allies can do no more for it, other than escalate to WWIII, which God forbid.
October 14, 2024
Just back from the front line I presume. For balance I suppose we have to have someone preaching defeatism.
October 14, 2024
I write as a UK taxpayer, and as such I object to wasting any more money on this failed Ukraine venture, and I want the government to reverse its senseless course – I’m in no way ‘defeatist’. But never mind me. Try reading other people’s comments here, for what you might have benefited from discovering earlier.
October 14, 2024
You are determined to be not only totally defeated but seen to be defeated. If you were on the front line you would be petrified of being shot by your own Ukrainian commanders, then posted a slots in action. Donāt you see the reports from Ukrainians?
October 14, 2024
I fear it is you who is not inhabiting the real world.The new real world revolves increasingly around the BRICS bloc.
Bloomberg:”India has become the second largest supplier of restricted technologies to Russia”These include microchips,circuits,machine tools.Western officials say raising the issue with India has brought little response.
BNE:”Chip war update.China is outspending the US-and even the entire west-on semiconductors funding by a considerable margin (at least 2:1).Who would have thought that if you prevented China from buying semiconductors,they’d dedicate enormous resources to building them themselves?Far from being the death knell of the Chinese semiconductor industry as some ‘experts’ predicted,US sanctions absolutely turbocharged it.”
I also read recently that Iran produced 1.2m cars last year ( UK total vehicle production just about crept back to 1m in 2023)with a healthy export business to non-western countries.It’s auto component exports to Russia more than quadrupled last year as Russian vehicle output returned to previous highs,after a short hiatus caused by the departure of western OEMs and their replacement by indigenous and other friendly state owners.
Who’s afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?Not I….nor me….me neither!
October 14, 2024
First option is best as long as Ukraine is treated on equal terms as Russia in negotiations. I know some Ukranians in the South West and we cannot let the whole male population be killed. Too many of them and the elderly left behind have suffered enough. I admire these people for their love of their animals as well as themselves so let’s do something positive to save what is left of this country which has seen so much pain now and in the past.
October 14, 2024
Ukrainians, once they comprehend their losses, will never forgive the west which funded it.
Ukraine may not survive at all. The highest death rate, the lowest birth rate. Millions of cripples. A million dead.
October 14, 2024
Ukraine was in a demographic death spiral even before the war started.All that land,all those resources and few people(now mostly old and unlikely to reproduce further).Just what could the attraction to the predatory western oligarchy be?
October 14, 2024
Good morning,
The outcome of the US election (if there is one) will decide the best solution. During President Trump’s tenure the world was at peace. He is the best hope for peace in both these conflicts and the UK’s involvement in facilitating a peaceful outcome will depend on whether the government (and UK establishment) are willing to work with him.
A Harris win will just give us more of the same. Any UK “suggestions” will not change anything in that scenario.
Trump must win.
October 14, 2024
This war is fundamentally about Ukraine joining NATO and Russiaās implacable opposition. Itās not dissimilar to the Cuban crisis or a China/Russia alliance seeking Mexico as members. The historical background to the conflict is also important as it provides context and explains policy intentions of the US State Department going back several decades. Zelensky agreed Ukraine would remain neutral during negotiations in Turkey in April 2022 just a matter of weeks after the invasion. These negotiations, supported by France, Germany and the UN, were scuppered by US/UK leadership with tragic consequences for Ukraine. Indeed, Zelensky was elected President on the basis of Ukraine remaining neutral! There is no evidence to show Russia is interested in taking control of Ukraine, but there is clear evidence that Russia will not allow NATO (meaning US) placing missiles inside Ukraine. Would America permit Russia placing missiles in Mexico? Of course not. This avoidable conflict should have ended in early 2022 and will only end when the neocons in the US State Department realise the war cannot be won. Negotiation is the only solution. Enough bloodshed has already been spilt, enough destruction and misery has been caused, homes and families destroyed. The track record of US Proxy wars since Vietnam makes grim reading and itās clear Ukraine will be added to the list.
October 14, 2024
More fundamentally it is about control of the global trade and financial system-resources and trade routes in short.
October 14, 2024
What has changed since August 24 2022? The war may never end while Zelensky remains in power.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/24/how-much-money-will-taxpayers-lose-on-the-bonds-bought-by-the-bank-of-england/#comment-1336817
“Listening to Zelensky stating his war aims yesterday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jutxOeoCgM
it seems to me that the war will never end, because Russia will never withdraw from Crimea or the Donbass ā āthe contested Ukrainian territoriesā ā and so maybe we will have to learn to live without Russian gas forever.”
October 14, 2024
Get fracking?
October 14, 2024
Russia continues supplies to Europe of gas and oil. Putin understands that Russiaās enemies are the globalist political class, which has already defeated the people of the west. Putin is a European man. We are the least numerous race, he does not want to wipe Caucasians off the face of the earth – union many globalist western leaders.
October 14, 2024
You are mistaken.Putin was a ‘European man’;he put the turn to asia that was already underway(the Primakov Doctrine) when he came to power on hold to see if a reset with the west was possible.Finding it was impossible he put the accelerator on the turn to asia.Europeans are welcome to join the Eurasia project but Russia will not be rejoining Europe.
The first inhabitants of what is now Russia were the Scythians,an Iranian people whose artefacts are today greatly treasured,they were followed by the Sarmatians,another Iranian people.The Ossetians in the caucasus are also of Iranian origin.The Slavs and Turkic peoples followed(also from asia)hundreds of years later.As for religion,Orthodox Christianity is very different to western christianity-and increasingly so-much closer to Islam according to theologians and Putin himself.All Russia’s many ethnicities and religions are valued -it will not be participating in the sort of crusade that you seem to be hoping for.
October 14, 2024
Wars end in one of two ways:
1. A negotiated settlement
2. Total capitulation of one side to the other
WW1 became a war of attrition, like Ukraine, and ended with a negotiated settlement.
WW2 was ended by total capitulation
Since there is no chance of (2) in Ukraine, it will be a negotiated settlement. Zelensky should have been allowed to complete his negotiations several years ago. But instead Johnson was sent to Ukraine to forbid it and prolong the war. Hundreds of thousands of dead later, perhaps “the people really calling the shots” think they can get slightly better Peace Terms out of The Big Bad Putin, but I rather doubt it.
And once again, the British people have been left with a sizeable Bill to pay for the USA and EU’s failed policy.
October 14, 2024
But after WW1, both the new leaders and their defeated people could not accept the severe punitive measures insisted on by France. Hence a build up of tension and arms to fight again.
October 14, 2024
WWI was an imposed settlement.Germany humilated.Austria-Hungary obliterated.Ottoman Empire was also to have been totally dismantled but Kemal Attaturk refused to accept the conditions,forged an an alliance with Bolshevik Russia which supplied him with gold and guns and attacked and destroyed Lloyd George’s Greek proxy army sent to occupy asia minor.As a result of this disaster,all the Greeks in asia minor (who had lived there for centuries before the arrival of the Turks) were expelled and the proposed new states of Kurdistan and Greater Armenia were stillborn.
October 14, 2024
Ukraine will decide on this not America or UK – even against overwhelming odds the war would develop into guerrilla fighting if the Ukrainians want. However it would be best if they could reach a settlement – best option would be for Ukraine to cede Crimea and that eastern strip that Russia currently holds plus or minus a bit with Russia afterwards having absolutely no say whatsoever about the rest – Ukraine to join NATO
October 14, 2024
No chance! Dream on.
October 14, 2024
I find it odd that you propose in your option 1 a ‘Peace Plan’ which does not involve consulting Russia. I cannot imagine this would have any serious prospects of being adopted. If you actually mean an off-ramp to help the US and NATO disengage from the trap they created for themselves in Ukraine, fair enough. It is time we did. I would suggest you needed an option 5: “We’re in a hole, stop digging right now, not another penny for Ukraine.”
Reply Of course a peace plan has to be negotiated with Russia!
October 14, 2024
Well you say āof courseā Sir John but the āpeace conferencesā excluded Russia šš¤£ we are becoming accustomed to the fantasies of the psychopaths at the top of the greasy ladder.
NATO is demilitarised. Europe is deindustrialised. Just one Russian objective still to be achievedā¦
October 14, 2024
Sir John, you don’t have to speculate on what is the ‘likely’ objective for Russia. Her objectives have been stated already: Ukraine has to agree an end to extreme nationalist oppression of Russians, demilitarisation, and no NATO membership. The Kremlin was not initially interested in gaining territory, except insofar as those objectives needed to be secured. After Kiev reneged on the April 2022 agreement that would have seen all Russia’s post-2014 conquests restored to Ukraine, the situation has undoubtedly changed, however. A major concern Russia has had was not to get drawn into trying to defend territory against long-term insurgency by a hostile population, as the Soviet union experienced in Afghanistan. In my opinion Russia will settle for incorporating just the oblasts that voted to become part of Russia in September 2022, plus fulfilment of its main objectives as mentioned. That seems OK to me. I think it must be kept in mind that, except in the imaginary world of pro-NATO commentators, this war has never really been about territory, but about a great power wanting to maintain its long-term security on its borders.
October 14, 2024
There is no point in negotiating a peace plan with Russia. That would only buy time for Russia to rearm again and to try again. Likely on a wider front than just Ukrain. Russia must be comprehensively defeated by Ukrain and by NATO now. Nothing else will work.
October 14, 2024
What do you mean ārearmā? Is Russia short of arms? š¤
This projection must stop. Itās NATO that is tapped out.
October 14, 2024
Ukraine invited NATO into the country and NATO has nuclear missiles pointed at Russia. Now read the 2 relevant paragraphs, that I researched and translated, from the peace treaty with Russia and decide whether Ukraine broke the treaty.
======================
Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, signed in 1997,
Article 6
Each of the High Contracting Parties shall refrain from participating in or support of any action directed against the other High Contracting Party, and undertakes not to conclude with third countries any agreements directed against the other Party. Neither Party will allow its territory to be used to the detriment of the security of the other Party.
Article 7
In the event of a situation which, in the opinion of one of the High Contracting Parties, threatens the peace, breaches the peace or affects the interests of its national security, sovereignty and territorial integrity, it may address the other High Contracting Party with a proposal to hold appropriate consultations without delay. The Parties shall exchange relevant information and, if necessary, take concerted or joint measures to overcome such a situation.
October 14, 2024
@javelin +9
This gets very close to the issue that started the war.
October 14, 2024
@ javelin – Article 6 states the Parties “… shall refrain from participating in or support of any action…” but is silent on undertaking action of their own which, in default of any prohibition, would seem to be permitted.
Article 7 seems entirely discretionary as to whether or not either Party chooses to act, either first or in response to overtures from the other.
In that light, neither Party would seem to have broken the treaty. If it has, are we not well past the point where that makes much if any difference?
October 14, 2024
The West could and should supply Ukraine with their best technology (as Trump has threatened to do if Russia refuses to compromise), if necessary operated by Western personnel, which should enable Ukraine to win.
October 14, 2024
You mean the west should go to war with Russia. You think WWIII will sort it all out. You do know that the U.K. and USA cannot recruit to their armed forces? You do know that our equipment is fabulous at a military display but useless on the battlefield? You do know that it will go nuclear?
October 14, 2024
Putin doesn’t mind how many other people, including Russians he is responsible for killing but he prefers not to be killed himself. So kicking Russia out of the whole of Ukraine and inflicting damage on the Russian army and its supplies within Russia will not result in nuclear war.
Our, or at least the Americans’ best equipment, is really good.
October 15, 2024
Who’ll do the kicking, Geoffrey?
October 15, 2024
You are Boris Johnson and I claim my Ā£5.00!
October 14, 2024
@ Lynn Atkinson – + 1
The likely wholesale destruction of the UK in an effort to save a far away country of which we know little: not an enticing prospect at all.
October 14, 2024
What will happen depends on the objectives.The EU’s and Germany’s objective has been to gain control of ukraine’s mineral resources, of which rare earths and lithium alone are valued at up to US$12 trillion to support Energiewende and EU Green Energy. this was clear from the announcmenets by Zelensky, the EU and Germany’s Scholz just three days after Russia invaded. Indeed Von Der Leyen has recently decreed that post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will be directed to these ends and the plans are being piubliched on EU websites. Clearly the EU regards Ukraine’s future as its business, not that of the US or UK. Although it will obviously welcome financial contributions from outside, control and direction will be the preserve of the EU and contracts will favour EU, mainly German, industry. Ukraine will have to accept EU sovereignty, which will not be welcomed by Ukrainians after they have been fighting for years at great cost for independent sovereignty.
The problem is that the mineral reserves that the EU wants are concentrated in the east and Russia will not easily give them up. Added to this, since the EU and Germany did this Faustian deal on 27 Feb 2022, arms now in exchange for future EU sovereignty, the critical minerals for Green Energy are increasingly being found and developed elsewhere. But the EU would have to buy them. So what it cedes to Russia may depend to some extent on these prices.
I suspect that Ukraine will split. The EU is as expansionist as ever but only if the price is right and Ukrainians will not be easy members of the EU. They will be even more trouble than Hungarians. (Yes I know they voted in favour of joining but that was when the only things they knew about the EU were EU propaganda and that it offers shed loads of other people’s money to accession countries. They will soon learn the money comes with political strings attached and if Ukraine doesn’t fall into line the money is cut off and their country will be fined billions for any minor departure from EU values.
October 14, 2024
You seek to discredit the 2014 Crimea referendum by saying no international observers were present. There was other opinion polling in Crimea shortly before then which found a majority wishing to join Russia. The United Nations Development Programme – not an ally of Putin as far as I know – ran polls in Crimea between 2009 and 2011 asking people if they favoured leaving Ukraine and joining Russia. Over those three years, a constant two-thirds majority opted for joining Russia. Or you can go back to the January 1991 result of a referendum where Crimeans were asked if they wanted to remain part of Ukraine, and 93% voted against. It seems there’s been a consistent lack of support for Ukraine belonging to Ukraine among its population, so the 2014 referendum was in line with that very strong tendency. Btw 135 observers from 23 countries were present at the 2014 referendum, though not ones who were warned off by the US and its allies.
Reply I was neutral in my comments. The fact is Ukraine and NATO did not supervise or accept the referendum which is why we have a war.
October 14, 2024
Whoops!
‘…for Crimea belonging to Ukraine…’, I meant
October 14, 2024
Why should NATO have supervised the referendum?It was/is hardly a neutral,having defacto taken control of Ukraine with the Maidan coup.
October 14, 2024
Why would Ukraine and NATO accept the results of the internationally supervised referenda or the repeated election of Putin as the Russian President when they want to demonise Russia in order to whip up war fever in the western population?
They have failed to do that BTW, which is why Hillary Clinton is calling for the severe censoring of social media āor we will lose controlā.
Real Democrats accept the results of elections, even if we hoped for a different outcome. The west gave Navalny USD 12 million to whip up a challenge to Putin. He managed to come second in the election of Moscow Mayor.
October 14, 2024
We do not have a government capable of diplomacy, and Starmer would be the last one to try and thwart American interests.
There are several ways this war could end:
– The optimum would be for Trump to win the election, in which case the Ukraine war would be over within a week;
– Should the Democrats steal the election then they will continue to protect their interests in Ukraine as well as punishing Putin.
This would see the West providing missiles and other armaments to attack Russia with directly, and that risks escalation to WW3 Without that escalation the war would drag on and on so that Russia would be badly drained and economically damaged, and open to regime change.
If a large Russian city is heavily bombed we should expect Russian missiles to rain down on the West, but that is the way this conflict is moving.
None of this support by the West is to the benefit of Ukraine, it is all about vested American interests.
We should be praying hard that the Democrats lose the presidential elections badly.
October 14, 2024
Russia has revised it nuclear doctrine.
Any proxy backed by a nuclear power, which attacks Russia will open the nuclear powered backer to bambardment.
Believe what they say!
October 14, 2024
I believe them
October 14, 2024
Just an observation – “The UK could point out it has given disproportionately to the cause and expects France to take over its role of major donor and supporter” the much hyped ‘Storm Shadow’ is a French made missile.
Even with in the UK most of our warfare capability as far as electronics, satellites and so on is now owned by the French Government – we have given away our independence. That logical means we have given away our right to an independent voice as we can’t talk from a position of strength.
UK tanks are being modified by the Germans as we lost that capability and many more give a ways have depleted our voice so it is no longer heard
October 14, 2024
Sir John, you are wrong in a few critical facts.
Russia has 2 fortified towns to overcome (job almost done in both) and then they will control all the east of Ukraine up to the Dnieper. Kiev is on the Dnieper. The āland bridgeā to Crimea was won when Mariupol was relieved.
The strategic towns were fortified with western money starting in 2014. Western money also paid for the biggest army in Europe to confront an unsuspecting Russia. Thatās why the peace plans, especially Istanbul which had been initialled by both sides, were rejected by the western puppet masters, Johnson in fact. Of course the first line were the most heavily fortified and took longest to recover. Once the last two are overcome (within weeks) there is no line of defence in existence within the whole of Ukraine, and effectively no armed forces. More than half the current standing army are non-Ukrainians. Russian could simply march at the pace their logistics can manage to the Polish border and site their nukes on that border. That is the converse of what NATO expected to do – put its nuclear arsenal 3 minutes from Moscow.
There is no military occupation because the ethnic Russian people, are welcoming of the Russian forces. The referendums in the 4 ancient Russian oblasts WERE internationally monitored with scrutiny from 18 countries. No global western ādemocraciesā were included for understandable reasons – you have to agree. The overwhelming majority of those populations are ethnic Russians – the result is unsurprising. Itās like the favourite winning at Epsom. You check when the 50-1 outside wins, imagine Northumberland voting to join and āindependent Scotlandā for heavens sake? The Geordies! That would have to be investigated.
You cannot draw up a peace plan if you have no idea of the situation on the ground. Best not to advertise your ignorance or the ignorance of British āintelligenceā by aping the comedian and his production team which have constituted the government of Ukraine to it detriment.
Reply I have not drawn up a peace plan as I do not know the detail and have not visited the territory. That is why I have invited comments and offered several possible outcomes.I am critical of arming Ukraine enough to prolong the war but not enabling them to secure the withdrawal of Russian forces . I understand your view that Russia has a right to these areas and are welcomed by many of the locals. The more normal way to approach these issues of identity and government areas is through referenda around a choice for those affected, as we did in Scotland. Once the two sides have gone to war it of course becomes more difficult with the two sides suspicious of undue control of the population by the other.
October 14, 2024
Sir John when one side spends 14 years shelling the indigenous population, killing 14,000 civilians, it is unsurprising that that population wishes to cede.
I suggest you look at the maps provided by The Institute for the Study of War, owned and run by the ethnic Ukrainian Nuland family whose forebearers fought valiantly for the 3rd Reich. The maps tell the tale. The scale is vast, the front line almost as long as is Britain!
Iām certain that the Ukrainian people would vote to stop the war, indeed it might be summarily stopped by Ukraineās armed men turning on the comedian and his production team. I mean that literally, the Ukrainian government are formally from the ācreative industryā. They have produced great graphics. I wonder whether they thought that was how a real war was won?
October 14, 2024
I agree with number one, lose of life and destruction must come to an end
October 14, 2024
You are missing two important factors logistic (manpower material and finance) and the will to fight.
Many wars have been decided by these. So long as Ukrainians have the will to defend their country and do not run out of material I do not see this coming to an end.
There is mounting evidence that the Russian will to fight is waning and that their logistics are failing rather than increasing despite spending so much on arms.
The end is not in sight.
October 14, 2024
I think you have it the wrong way round, FW. It’s been widely reported, even in the British legacy media, that Ukraine is desperately press-ganging men into its army, to plug the gaps left by its mounting casualties. Whereas volunteers for the Russian army continue to come forward in large numbers.
If you followed the war, you would be able to give the names of numerous towns and villages captured by the Russians in the last couple of months. You wouldn’t be able to mention any recaptured and held by Kiev forces: there haven’t been any. If I can see this, so can our policy-makers. Of Sir John’s four options, only no. 2 deals with reality.
October 14, 2024
Care to provide us with this ‘mounting evidence’?
October 14, 2024
So does this mean that Ukraine after ceding the eastern area to Russia will join NATO?
October 14, 2024
From Guido
Polls have the Tories and Labour are neck and neck at 27%.
Reform polls 21%.
The worst of the worst are now equal, how come they are both that high with the those that responded in the polls?
Its a sad joke on all of us, that we have been disenfranchised.
October 14, 2024
I hope that John Redwood will write about the effects of the replacement for Swift and the replacement for the petro-dollar and much else that will be agreed at the Conference of BRICS in Kazan. Really itās the repercussions on the west that most interest me, and in particular Britain.
How should we position ourselves when the USA is a shadow of itās former self? I canāt believe that even Trump can do much to reverse the inexorable damage done by the Biden Administration.
October 14, 2024
Our best option is mind our own business. We are not in a position to influence either side in this conflict, the USA or Russia. It is not in our interests to support those in the US State department who believe that they are entitled to use all means to achieve the position of World hegemon and to use Ukraine as a battering ram to weaken and destroy Russia before they move on to China. This strategy has failed as Russia, unlike the West, has never de-industrialised and has been able very quickly to move to a war footing and to replenish its war materiel stocks which the West cannot do because of low capacity.
Meanwhile, the Tories achieved the highest ever net migration last year of 667,000. That is why they were voted out of office. Focus on UK interests. Our interests are not the same as those of the US State department so we should not be allocating billions to support NATO which is a wholly-owned vehicle for US foreign meddling despite the European puppet politicians who purportedly run it.
October 14, 2024
Clearly this is a proxy war, gamed by the hegemonic US with European vassal states joining in.
Nothing will stop the neocons, as in previous proxy wars. Wherein the US lost each and every one. Negotiations are the only answer, and the sooner the better, before the Ukrainian younger generation are wiped out. Russia made it very clear, NATO on our doorstep is a redline.
October 14, 2024
An interesting, long-forgotten fact is that Russia (in its guise as the Soviet Union) once applied to join NATO.
Had Bush the father and his neocon pals handled the post-Cold War era better, Russia could have become a member during the 1990’s and the world might well have benefited greatly.
October 14, 2024
In short, Sir John, your policy is one of appeasement – or simply walking away as we did in the Holy Land and Cyprus. Most of the comments seem to agree, some more predictably than others.
From an economic point of view, and short-term domestic living standards, appeasement is almost always the best policy when dealing with aggressive fascist warmongers overseas. Mr Chamberlain knew that it was the only way to retain the great economic and social improvements he had worked for and won for most of the country in the 1930s.
You will recall that most of our friends in the EU and North America urged us to cede the Falkland Islands and South Georgia to the invading Argentine dictatorship, as did the permanent UK Foreign Office. I am glad we did not but Mrs Thatcher’s decision cost us much in the short run in treasure and lives. Choices have to be made.
By ceding the Chagos Islands, we have already tacitly accepted President Xi’s doctrine that the wishes of local people are ultimately irrelevant to a territory’s future, albeit that the Chagos islanders were already in forced exile. The Xi doctrine applies principally to Taiwan and the many smaller Pacific islands that China wants, but was aired in Buenos Aires to much approval.
Russia had a strong moral claim to Crimea but has no claim to other parts of modern Ukraine just because their mixed population is mostly russophone, as is President Zelensky. The only peace deal I can envisage that does not start the gun for many more wars of aggression by the fascist powers is for Ukraine to retrospectively sell Crimea to Russia in exchange for heavy financial compensation (trillions rather than millions) .
Reply I have not recommended a policy but set out options. I condemn the needless off of Chagos.
October 14, 2024
The BBC said that Crimea was annexed by the Russian Empire in 1783 from the defeated Ottoman Empire and remained part of Russia until 1954, when it was transferred to Ukraine under the Soviet Leader Khrushchev. It is a major Black Sea port. Ethnic Russians make up the majority of the population.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18287223#:~:text=HISTORY&text=Crimea%20was%20annexed%20by%20the,then%20Soviet%20leader%20Nikita%20Khrushchev.
I don’t know what to think about this. I’m unsure why the UK are a leading partner, committing Ā£12.8 billion, compared to France’s $5 bn – the USA’s spend of $92.7 bn (statists). Trump has said that he wants to negotiate a peace settlement.
October 15, 2024
It was the Khanate of Krim(Crimea) that was annexed by Catherine the Great in 1783-the outcome of her intervention in a civil war there that followed the Khanate’s separation from her former Ottoman overlords around a decade earlier.The Khanate’s territory covered areas of southern coastal Ukraine in addition to the peninsular itself.It was the last remnant of the Mongol empire in Europe.
October 14, 2024
Minsk I Minsk II
I’m with Doctorow. SJR, you are off the pulse by a country mile.
A cease-fire will come into effect only when the Ukrainian side agrees to withdraw its armed forces from the entirety of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts at their pre-2014 borders and actually begins this withdrawal
Ukraine will acknowledge that these regions and Crimea are now integral parts of the Russian Federation
Ukraine will foreswear membership in NATO and there will be no foreign military personnel or installations on its territory
Ukraine will ensure that Russian speakers on its territory are given full civil rights to practice their language and culture
All Western sanctions on Russia will be lifted
The notion that the Russians will lose at the negotiating table what they have won on the battlefield as you suggest is ridiculous.
Reply I did not say what would emerge from negotiations
October 14, 2024
Concerning Option 1., why is the UK designated for this task and would our Foreign Office be capable enough to take on the burden?
UK war aims should certainly āensure it remains a Ukraine/Russia warā for so long as it continues but let us acknowledge the risk of unlooked for escalation. For that reason and humanitarian considerations, let us press for a negotiated settlement (peace talks immediately under Sino-US joint sponsorship?) but hold ourselves appropriately aloof from commitments and obligations.
Ukraine will never return to the status quo ante: Crimea should be recognized as Russian. What is done politically about the cultural, social and economic distinctions between east and west of Ukraine might best be guided by the will of the people living there.
Regrettably, there are perhaps too many influential actors who are content to see the war continue for a good while whatever the risk and cost. All the more reason for the UK to withhold itself.