As soon as the Conservatives win a General election the pundits and the BBC are on telling us that government needs to adopt Labour’s economic policies of a  bigger state and more state intervention. If people thought that was the answer they could have voted for dollops of it given the Labour Manifesto.

What we need is intelligent government intervention where government can make a difference, and help or avoidance of harm for the competitive private sector who will generate many of the jobs and supply many of the goods and services. A Northern city may need better public investment in transport and education, but it also needs a surge of private sector led investment in the many new goods and services which power the modern economy.

To encourage a city outside London to perform more like London needs lower taxes and more freedoms to let people set up businesses and grow them We need more freeports and big enterprise zones. We need lower Income tax, fewer capital taxes and transactions taxes on business, and better education and training to create clusters of excellence and competitive energy.

Of course the Transport department needs a bigger capital budget.It also needs better management of projects and better choice of projects to get more value for money. The railway needs accelerated investment in digital signalling to increase the capacity of existing lines. It needs new short sections of by pass track to allow express trains to keep to timetable on mixed train lines. The road system needs better junctions, more roundabouts in place of traffic lights, and more segregation of cycles from vehicles for safety and easier cycling.

London stays richer with higher incomes thanks to the talent and entrepreneurial energies of so many people.You go to London to set up a business because you find the good people, the specialist suppliers and above all the customers. Northern cities can be helped to be similar magnets.

The first thing we need to spread growth and prosperity more widely around our country is a Central Bank in tune with current worldwide Central Bank thinking and concerned to promote growth.

From India to the USA, from Australia to Brazil, from Turkey to Mexico Central Banks have been cutting interest rates to stimulate more growth against a backdrop of world manufacturing recession.

In the last month the Fed has put $150bn into markets to facilitate more productive bank lending, whilst the ECB is now creating Euro20bn extra each month to boost money growth. The Bank of Japan remains on full throttle Quantitative easing.

The UK has the slowest rate of money growth in the advanced world thanks to the Bank of England’s do nothing policy. Time for the Bank to get with the mood of the country which wants more prosperity.

The Prime Minister had no choice but to hold an election close to Christmas. The old Parliament had degenerated into an uncontrollable shouting match, preventing government and making us look ludicrous abroad. When you can not even pass a budget it’s time to ask the people.

Necessity does not  make Christmas a good time to be campaigning and I trust it does not become a habit. It was cold and wet for much of the time, with slippery steps and paths, more dangerous in the dark when the sodden leaves were concealed in the shadows. The Labour candidate in Wokingham had an unfortunate fall at the start of the election and had to struggle on crutches for most of the time. I felt sorry for her, as it must be  so frustrating and painful when you wish to dash around to meet as many people as possible.

I had to hone my skills at carrying a bundle of leaflets in  one hand, an umbrella in the other, and then working how to battle with the letter boxes near the ground with highly sprung backs and tough brushes. If you abandoned the umbrella the leaflets soon got ruined  by the rain. It was necessary to locate the prevailing wind and park the umbrella where it could not blow away whilst tackling the more aggressively defended  letter boxes.

We candidates are all volunteers, and I am not seeking any sympathy for us. We do not have to do it, but we did  have to fight that feeling of wistfulness as we watched everyone else getting ready for Christmas. Through lit windows we saw the trees and tinsel appear. The outsides of some houses were joyously lit up by great light displays or illuminated Santas and reindeer, making it a bit easier to find our footing as we went from house to house. We returned to our  homes converted into leaflet stores and canvass offices feeling a bit like the person made to stay on duty during the party.

For MPs rightly stripped of office as soon as Parliament dissolves it is perhaps the busiest season for official duties. They  all had to be binned. The two wreaths I had bought to lay at local war memorials sit in the corner of my office. I had to cancel my attendance at the Winter Carnival, pull out of reading a lesson at a civic service, and was told politely I was not wanted at the schools’ carol concert which is a highlight of the year in Wokingham Borough. There was no question of dropping in on nativity plays, charity events or other Christmas specials. I will return to Westminster on Monday to a pile of Christmas cards ordered well before the election which could not be signed or sent as they have on them the Portcullis logo and MP designation.

The public was generally  understanding of visitors after dark as they sensed the importance of the election and the limited time for parties to get their message across.

I hope in future we return to spring or early summer elections. There is so much more daylight, it is a  bit warmer, and the official calendar is less packed with must do events even allowing for the popularity of summer fetes. I like Christmas and it will great this week-end to be able to do some Christmas shopping and decorate my home. I will get Christmas done!

The deliberate log jam created by the last Parliament was preventing good government, undermining us abroad and seeking to subvert the results of the EU referendum. We had to ask the voters to make a decision.

They have done so in a clear way. There was a big choice to make. Did they want a Corbyn led government with massive promises to increase spending, borrowing and taxes, or did they want a moderate reflation of the economy with some spending increases for important services and some tax cuts? Did they trust Labour or the Conservatives with the security and future of our country. They gave a convincing answer last night.

There was also the question of how many voters did wish to go back on the referendum to leave the EU. Prime Minister in waiting Jo Swinson offered the country the choice to revoke our application to leave by a simple repeal vote in Parliament. It was a bold and radical proposal. Just 11% backed it, and her own voters instead asked her to leave Parliament. I hope those who keep telling us people want to remain will reflect on this result.

Labour says they lost because the failed to back Brexit, having done so in 2017 when they got a better result. Doubtless there was some of that in the poor results they achieved, but there was also the prior questions about economic management and direction and style of leadership which dominated in many discussions.

Now this new Conservative majority government has two immediate tasks. It does need as the PM says to “get Brexit done”, which means taking back control of our money, borders and laws, and means negotiating that Free Trade Agreement the EU has promised in principle. It also means an early budget, as we are in urgent need of a stimulus, at a time of world slowdown and worldwide manufacturing recession.

May you all vote wisely. It’s your decision.

I have said all I wish to say about this election  and now look forward to the results tomorrow morning.

The USA has for some years put in a much better economic performance than the Eurozone. Thus year its growth rate is around double that of the Euro area.Part of it stems from the monetary policy being pursued, some of it from the fiscal policy and much of it from the enterprise policies.

The Fed has twin objectives of keeping inflation down and promoting growth. It has been pragmatic about pursuing these objectives. It made bad mistakes at the end of the last decade like other advanced country Central banks,  but has done much better since 2010. It did tighten too much at the end of 2018 but has now corrected for the mistake. Despite over 2% growth in the economy the Fed has recently pumped $150bn extra liquidity into markets to facilitate bank lending and continued growth.

The ECB has ostensibly followed a more dovish stance than the Fed with lower rates and more recent Quantitative easing. It has, however, failed to get all the main commercial banks in its system to address their balance sheet and bad debt problems, so there is still difficulty in transmitting cheap money into more well based  loans to get the economies moving faster.

The President of the USA put through major tax cuts which acted as a substantial boost to US growth in the last two years. At the same time the Congress also put through various public spending increases. As a result there was an expansion of the fiscal deficit, which helped generate more activity. In the Euro area the strict application of the Maastricht rules with tough controls on debt as percentage of GDP has left little or no room for fiscal expansion.

The USA has a more enterprise oriented culture, with a very strong technology sector that has been leading the world. Lower taxes, more business and start up friendly regulations and a more plentiful supply of equity and credit for new business has ensured the US has grown faster and dominates the western digital world.

As feared and forecast here UK growth in the latest figures has slowed again, as has growth in most parts of the world.

I have been recommending for sometime that we need both a monetary and a fiscal stimulus. Monetary change awaits a new Governor of the Bank of England, which in turn awaits a  government with a majority. Fiscal change also is waiting on such a  government. The outgoing minority  Conservative government did not think it could get the tax cuts through the Commons that the economy now needs to give it a boost and was apparently unable to agree with officials about a suitable new Governor.

The hung Parliament that did so much to create uncertainty and delay over Brexit did other damage as well. It diverted attention from big matters like the need for an economic boost, and made officials minded to avoid  changes on the grounds that there was no Parliamentary majority for anything worth doing.

The new government formed by a change of PM has clearly signalled they recognise the need for a budget which boosts incomes, activity and public services. We need it as soon as possible. It is a fundamental reason why we need a government with a majority on December 13th so we can get on with the changes we need. The USA has recently seen a $150bn injection by the Central Bank into markets to give things a boost even though the USA is growing much faster than the EU or UK. The ECB is administering a Euro 20 bn a month stimulus. The UK does not need more Quantitative easing but it could do with facilities for banks prepared to lend against good projects and to consumers to buy homes and cars. Consumers could do with a post Christmas present of keeping more of their earnings to spend on their priorities.

No-one should have to wait a long time for NHS treatment. Our hearts reach out to any child and parents who have had a bad experience. It is not what any of us wants. The government has rightly pledged more money and more staff. It is important this is well managed to prevent these unacceptable incidents in future.

Some younger voters may not have studied UK economic history. There has been a depressing pattern to it all.

The 1964-70 Labour government borrowed and spent too much. It was forced into a devaluation and had to impose austerity policies to try to rally the currency.

The 1974-9 Labour government overspent and overborrowed to such an extent that they ran out of money and had to go to the IMF for a loan. There was further devaluation. The IMF imposed tough austerity conditions on the loan  which then governed Labour policy.

The 1997-2010 Labour government lasted longer because for the first few years it followed inherited Conservative spending and tax plans which worked.  Then it cranked up the spending and borrowing – particularly through the private finance initiative lumbering public services with large debts- and presided over the crash of 2008-9.

The last two Labour governments both raised unemployment by around half a million people. Indeed every Labour government apart from the first short lived minority one has left office with unemployment up on where it started.

A sensible amount of credit, and borrowing for worthwhile investment, can help an economy. Excessive state credit and excessive state spending with high taxes is always a ruinous combination. It makes people worse off, leads to job losses and recession, and leave the Treasury short of tax revenues to pay the bills. The huge spending and taxing plans of the current Labour party would bring on an early crisis.

Jo Swinson this morning on Radio 4 confirmed her preference to just cancel Brexit by a vote in Parliament, but conceded she did not think there would be enough MPs in the next Parliament who would do that. She no longer believes there will be a Lib Dem majority government by Friday.

This is an interesting development. Every time I see her on tv in various constituencies around the country she is flanked by Lib Dem posters setting out their catch phrase, “Winning here”. It’s an odd and self serving slogan. Normally parties and candidates have slogans about what they want to do for the voters.

This Lib Dem slogan asserts that they  uniquely know what voters are going to do in each place as if they have some special prescience the rest of us do not share about how people will vote. It now appears that in many of these places the Lib Dem leader thinks they are not winning after all. The slogan was apparently misleading or simply a lie.  It would have been more modest and sensible if their posters said “Trying to win here” or “Keen to win  here”. “Unlikely to win here” would be a bit of a turn off even where it was an honest assessment.

What was more bizarre was what she said about their fall back position, the wish to hold a second referendum on the EU issue. She vacillated about supporting a Labour government offering one and  appeared to want to move straight to a second General election.

She would be under great pressure to accept a Labour minority government offering a second referendum.  Her message of vote Lib Dem to get a hung Parliament, so we can then have a second General election to try for a different Parliament again  is absurd. Why would anyone vote for a result which required another election immediately? It also looks like an attempt to cover up a likely deal with Labour were they to get their hung Parliament.  No wonder her slogan is not “Vote for a hung Parliament so you can have a second General election”

She has consistently said there are no circumstances in which she would support a Conservative government seeking to implement the result of the referendum, so that only leaves one realistic option in a hung Parliament, a Labour led government.