Government stability

Remain, Labour and many in the media are running endless stories about the possible fall of the PM or the government. These stories are false mischief.

Let me remind you of the process to remove a Conservative PM. 15% of the Conservative MPs have to ask for a Confidence vote in the leader.Then more than half the MPs have to vote No Confidence. As most Conservative MPs support the Leader neither of these two events are about to happen.

For there to be an early General election the government would have to lose a Confidence  motion in the Commons. I know of no Conservative. MP who would vote to do that. The DUP are not after an early election either.

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51 Comments

  1. Mark B
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:11 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    Then the media in this country can justifiably be accused of being the creators of ‘fake news’ and one of those happens to be a Public Service Broadcaster than I be live they are in breach of their charter. Time for government to act ! As if.

  2. Peter
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:21 am | Permalink

    ‘False mischief’ they may be but the realpolitik is the big story now.

    Most people have made up their mind on Brexit and are not for changing.

    The question is can it be delivered. If so, how quickly and in what form.

    One minute we hear Shapps has thirty something MPs ready to unseat the PM. The next we hear there are forty MPs looking to remove two troublesome ministers said to be Gove and Johnson.

    We do not know the internal machinations of the government but they are of interest. The media are well aware of this.

  3. Duncan
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Get us out of the EU then get rid of May. All else is tosh

    • Duncan
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:51 am | Permalink

      One suspects that the EU is behind many of these attacks and probably channels funding to many pro-EU pressure groups

      The desperation of the pro-EU establishment tells me they will stop at nothing to prevent Brexit. If they can stop Brexit by bringing down a democratically elected government they will do just that

      Is there any possibility that we can see some Tory MP’s with guts, confidence and a large dollop of defiance?

      Defend the UK, never apologise and always stand up for the silent majority who believe in democracy and who want to see the EU referendum result implemented in full

      Speak to that world beyond the inner sanctum of political London and the Westminster bubble

    • DaveM
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 10:29 am | Permalink

      Quite. Out of the EU, construct a new and effective government united behind a new, strong, charismatic and popular leader, then concentrate on winning in 22. Everything else is secondary.

    • Hope
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

      Morgan and Grieve defying the William of the people by their comments on the Brexit bill, date of pasture and ECJ. Starmer on the same issue, these people want to stay in the ECJ single market and customs union and somehow want us to believe this is leaving or enacting our will.

      We voted leave, no extension, no ECJ, our laws, our courts, our borders and our money spent at home. Grieve, Morgan, Soubry and Clarke are subverting the will of the electorate. Thy have no place in parliament if they do not accept the democratic will o the electorate.

      No third country status for the EU army, the one Clegg lied about in his TV debate with Farage, dismissing it as pure fantasy!

  4. Ian Wragg
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:26 am | Permalink

    The establishment are desperate to stop Brexit and every weapon in the armoury will be deployed against May.
    If you don’t deliver your finished.

    • alan jutson
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:14 am | Permalink

      Ian

      Yes the BBC last night in their news programme trying their best to try and ensnare Gove into the Iran prisoner story.
      I saw his interview with Andrew Marr and thought Gove handled the questions well, his words of course being edited, and taken out of context for the news report.

      It really is quite disgraceful how so called news is being manipulated by our so called media and our National broadcaster in Particular.

      Not a word about the very positive James Dyson interview of course.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 9:37 am | Permalink

      As far as the Remoaners are concerned everything is now about stopping Brexit. They don’t care about the truth, they don’t care about democracy, let alone about our national sovereignty, and they don’t care how much damage they are doing to the country. All the time they are automatically on the side of the EU and against the UK and they will stop at nothing short of violence, indeed in some cases they might even be prepared to use violence. They are a ……..lfifth column in….every powerful or influential element of our society, including of course both Houses of Parliament and the government, and they will never accept that what they want can be defeated by ordinary people voting in a referendum.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 9:42 am | Permalink

      Indeed.

      But May and Hammond need to finally start doing some sensible things for the economy – easy hire and fire, cheap energy, bonfires of red tape, relaxed planning, cutting the size of the bloated state sector and cutting and simplifying taxes.

      We shall see was Hammond does next week I expect the productive will be kicked in the teeth yet again.

    • NickC
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

      Ian, Whilst your assessment is probably right, many Tories will regard this as an empty threat. They are wrong.

      The Tory party needs to be reminded of 1972 which, to borrow a phrase, was a year of infamy. Mrs May’s deal will be scrutinised in hindsight for decades, like Heath’s 1972 deal. Every nuance of appeasement will be exposed to ridicule.

    • Iain Gill
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

      To be honest if they go through with destroying diesel car drivers at the budget they are finished anyways

    • stred
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

      The pro-EU establishment is using personal attacks on any prominent Brexiteer they can find some angle on at the moment, including our host, Boris and Nigel. All tosh but to appeal to the less sensible.

  5. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    What a disastrous situation this country finds itself in and all started by that weasel Cameron who left the UK in the lurch, despite all his promises to the people and with a few twists and turns and some serious back stabbing, left us with the current weak leader May. Doesn’t she realise that if she actually made the decision to tell the EU to bog off, she just might get this government back on track and do something to gain the trust of the electorate? We only want what we democratically voted for and were promised.

  6. alan jutson
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    Even if May goes that does not automatically trigger a general election.

    Brown took over from Blair, no election.

    May took over from Cameron, no election.

    Any conservative remainer who wanted a general election at the moment could well be committing political suicide for themselves.

    Do the majority in the Country really want Corbyn ?

    If Mrs May delivers a good deal (no more money) on Brexit, and she stands absolutely firm against EU pressure and demands, then her fortunes and support will rise.
    Failure to do so will of course result in her demise, along with that of the Conservative Party

  7. Roy Grainger
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Interesting that the only strong public pushback from Davis to the leaks and threats from the EU was on the one about the EU’s plans to separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Obviously the DUP demanded he do that. They, rather than Brexit MPs like John, are the only ones Mrs May seems keen to placate.

  8. Duncan
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    I don’t understand you John. A staunch Brexiteer and yet you back two pro-EU politicians as PM and Chancellor. We need Johnson and Gove at the helm.

    Why do I get the feeling that Tory MP’s are more concerned about petty jealousies and party politics than achieving full Brexit?

    We need two Brexit politicians at the helm of the Conservative Party. We don’t need two EU apologists

  9. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    The constant media and opposition chatter re government stability is tiresome and unhelpful but the MPs in your Parliamentary party could banish the talk by shutting up.

    Ms Soubry and Morgan, Mr Grieve and Mr Johnson. All the usual suspects could consider their party instead of their profiles.

    In my experience negotiating is best performed without an audience which ups the ante for concessions.

  10. Richard1
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Conservative MPs are contributing. Today a ‘senior Conservative MP’ is quoted -anonymously – of saying the govt smells of decline. Yesterday I read another say “we need a period in opposition”. Please give your colleagues a kick in the backside – they are the ones who need it.

    • rose
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

      In the Sunday Times so fake news.

  11. David Price
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    On the topic of national and government stability what is your view on the impact of the legal blocking of the EU withdrawl Bill raised in yesterday’s piece by Professor David Campbell “Henry VIII clauses and the new legal challenge to Brexit”.

    He is concerned that the grab for power by the legal profession to take sovereignty away from Parliament has passed out of their control and predicts a major constitutional crisis with unpredictable outcomes.

  12. Bob
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Labour’s attacks on Boris is an attempt to destabilise the govt are helping only the hostage takers. The fake news media are going along for the ride. Shameful.

    • stred
      Posted November 13, 2017 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

      Explain this. The Guardian reporting what Boris had been told before he was pilloried. He did not say she was teaching journalists in Iran, only that her job before was the reason she was vulnerable. How does the BBC come out of this mess? She was working in a minor role for a BBC Agency which fed BBC Iran.

      • rose
        Posted November 14, 2017 at 12:43 am | Permalink

        I watched the original select committee proceedings and it is clear the reptiles have deliberately misrepresented him – or as he politely put it, misconstrued him – in order to get him sacked and HMG destabilised. This means they have also deliberately put the hostage at risk, in order to achieve their object. Everyone knows the more these cases are talked up, the more perilous it becomes for the prisoners as their value increases. Furthermore, if you tell the IRG you will get the FS sacked if they extend the sentence, what are they likely to do? And what else will they do to get even more of an effect?

        The headlines should have read: “Iranians misrepresent Foreign Secretary to put pressure on British Government.”

  13. Bert Young
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    At the moment the timing is not right to challenge the leadership ; negotiations with the EU are top of the list of priorities and we must continue to negotiate without any disruption . Having said this , I do not believe that Theresa can sustain her role beyond this vital point . Well before the next election we have to have someone in charge whose strategy and belief is firmly right of centre . Timing of this change is critical .

  14. Alan
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    You are forgetting resignation, illness, and death. I sincerely hope that the last two will not happen, but the first is a distinct possibility.

  15. Pat
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    The Conservatives will need a better salesperson for the next election. There is no rush. And in the meantime sales ability is less important.

  16. BartD
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Please tell us who is on the list of 40– you must know some of them?

    Reply What list? I cant name any, other than the one man leadership election campaign of last month where no-one else supported.

  17. Mick
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Just been listening to Dominic grieve on sky and the guy still hasn’t come to terms with the referendum result no matter how much he says he as, this mp along with all the other undemocratic should be kicked out of Parliament, i still believe we need a Brexit march to shut these remoaners up and let Brussels know which side won the referendum and that we are LEAVING there club in March 2019 no matter what obstacles they or the remoaners in Westminster try to use project fear tactics

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 14, 2017 at 10:22 am | Permalink

      It became evident years ago that Dominic Grieve is a eurofederalist.

      This is from 2009:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/07/15/supremacy-of-parliament/

      “Curiously it seems that Bill Cash had somehow managed to get official Tory support for this amendment, but in March 2008 he didn’t get official support for his New Clause 9 to affirm and defend the supremacy of Parliament against possible attack by Declaration 17 attached to the Lisbon Treaty.

      Apparently Dominic Grieve incorrectly advised that it would “create a constitutional contradiction” – obviously incorrectly, as EU law has no force in this country other than that allowed to it by Parliament, and Parliament can decide that it will not consent to a certain EU law taking effect.”

  18. Epikouros
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    The Conservative party certainly needs a change of leader. I observe Theresa May has possibly strong views most of which I would not subscribe to and worst of all she prefers to let events shape actions rather than take the lead herself and shape actions to create events. Put simply she prefers to hide behind a shield and hope that the slings and arrows of misfortune will pass her by.

  19. oldtimer
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    It is all part of a determined campaign to frustrate Brexit. The attacks on prominent Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson is part of the same campaign, So far it has claimed one scalp, that of Priti Patel. I think that the visit to the EU Commission by Clarke, Clegg and Adonis last week was not coincidental.

  20. Na
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    The establishment are desperate to stop Brexit and every weapon in the armoury will be deployed against May.–

    >
    May is the Establishment, her role is just to sound convincing and buy time.

  21. Prigger
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    There is a concerted effort,media wholly involved, on destabilisation. Insufficient data whether the thwarting of Brexit is necessarily the reason.
    In politics, various groups jostle for power, without a care for Country. Boris seems the focal point. So it could be the Mrs May clique which includes many in Labour. Boris poses a major threat to Khan’s position, May’s position and any hope of the Labour Party coming to power irrespective of his stance on Brexit. His seeming boo-boos just endear him even more to the public. Other politicians are desperately afraid of a politician with accepted flaws. Same as Trump, too real to fight. He just gets stronger with every body blow. Just makes him like Every Man.

  22. Tad Davison
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    I seem to recall Tony Marlow once called John Major a loser in the Commons. I asked him about it and he said he just wanted Major to be ‘robust’ (and I still have the letter if JR needs to verify its authenticity). That’s pretty much what this is all about, the fact that Mrs May won’t stick it to these EU people who are holding out for more and yet more of our cash.

    But we need to ask ourselves this question, would we really put a 7 stone weakling in a boxing ring with Mike Tyson?

    The answer is simply ‘No, we’d get somebody who was up to the job. A Churchill, not a Halifax or Chaimberlain. The country is crying out for strong and stable ladership, but quite evidently, we still dont have it. So what are the alternatives, stay with what we have –
    somebody whose judgement was so impaired they really wanted to remain in the EU – and get fleeced, or do we get a leader who can really take the fight to the enemy?

    I know which I’d rather have, any day of the week! Anybody who thinks May is good at her job is seriously deluded.

    Tad Davison

    Cambridge

    • rose
      Posted November 14, 2017 at 12:47 am | Permalink

      I don’t think anybody thinks that, just that a contest before Brexit would be suicidal.

      • Tad Davison
        Posted November 14, 2017 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

        Suicidal in that Corbyn might be the ultimate beneficiary of such a contest?

        He’s just proved himself to be an untrustworthy turncoat on Brexit. He’s also shown himself to be an opportunist by offering a raft of things he could never hope to deliver without bankrupting the country. That is the mark of a con-man.

        Corbyn might have temporarily struck a chord with young impressionable people who are politically naïve, but even they eventually grow up and then recognise the stark political reality.

        I think the Corbyn phenomena might have already hit the high water mark and the tide will now recede as people see through him. A strong Tory leader would make that diminution in Corbyn’s popularity even more likely. It’s precisely what the British people deserve, but we certainly don’t need any more remainers in that position.

        Tad

  23. frankD
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think May’s government will last after the crash out. I think we can expect the crash out by Christmastime and elections in the spring. After that there will be a Labour government and talks with the EU will resume..I don’t see it any other way. The present government is a disaster- without naming names some of the government ministers are a disaster..we all know who? and it’s all happening under Mrs May’s Tory watch. My guess is that it will be ten years before the conservatives get back into power again.

  24. ian
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    With the more green crap promise by Gove and banks sending more borrowing leverage to the EU and staving businesses here of money, one can only think that is going to get a lot worst in the UK in the years ahead, in or out of the EU. Politicians/ councillors and banking with the BOE and treasury have got in for the people of the UK, and they are loving it, while they are filling up their back pockets. The laws that will be coming in next few years will be designed to crush the small people of this country.

  25. agricola
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    The media, political opposition, a few geriatric retired conservatives and a small number of your own MPs may wish to destabilise the government for their own political ends. Ignore them a la Donald. Mrs may deserves support and there is no clear alternative. Drive relentlessly towards Brexit with or without a confirmed EU agreement. Their jam tomorrow must be terminated and soon. There is no point in hanging about beyond the end of December. A positive decision carried through with conviction is better than indecision. Let the EU play catch-up when they realise how far they are up that well defined creek.

  26. useful idiot
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    Read a comment today that said something along the lines of

    The EU is about to abolish Tax Havens and that is why ” useful idiots ” are being used to promote Brexit.

    I hope that is not so.

  27. libertarian
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    Shame, she,and especially Hammond and others need to to go. I hear Hammond is planning a fresh attack on self employed and small business in the budget, he tried that last time and made himself look a dick. Have the Tories got a suicide death wish?

  28. ian
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    They will likely put taxes up for people with children and cut taxes for gay couples.

  29. Mike Wilson
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    Well, Mr. Redwood, time for you and others to get your colleagues into line behind the leader. If I were leader there are some that would feel the imprint of my boot on their backsides – and rather than let them fester on the back benches – I would personally visit their local associations to get them de-selected.

  30. M. Davis
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    The last thing we need is a General Election! Give the woman a break!

  31. Prigger
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    EU Exit Negotiations Statement to the House 13th November 2017
    Mr Davies Brexit Minisiter says the EU has NOT agreed to EU citizens voting in UK Local Elections therefore, he says he will advance and progrees the rights of EU citizens to interfere with our politics by “Bi-Lateral agreements” instead.
    Who, just for whom and for what on earth, is Mr Davies working for????

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 14, 2017 at 10:13 am | Permalink

      There’s a very big difference between being deported from a country and just not being allowed to vote in that country’s elections. Of course both difficulties can be solved by successfully applying for citizenship of the country.

  32. Chris
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    Please tell this to Nicky Morgan, Mr Redwood.

  33. Peter
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    False mischief’ they may be but the realpolitik is the big story now.

    Most people have made up their mind on Brexit and are not for changing.

    The question is can it be delivered. If so, how quickly and in what form.

    One minute we hear Shapps has thirty something MPs ready to unseat the PM. The next we hear there are forty MPs looking to remove two troublesome ministers said to be Gove and Johnson.

    We do not know the internal machinations of the government but they are of interest. The media are well aware of this.

  34. Peter
    Posted November 13, 2017 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    There will be a vote on the Brexit agreement.

    Cue cheering from the Remain supporters in the media.

    Now we hear if the vote is against the Brexit agreement we leave anyway with no deal.

    Suits me.

    More evidence of the progress of negotiations now being of more interest than the pros and cons of Brexit. Reapolitik.

    We wait apprehensively for any bad news of setbacks or slippage while the hardline Remainers welcome it.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 14, 2017 at 10:09 am | Permalink

      It will be a case of “take it or leave it”, cue massive indignation from Remoaners who have apparently forgotten that every past EEC/EC/EU treaty has been presented to Parliament on a “take it or leave it” basis:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/10/29/why-are-house-prices-so-high/#comment-897374

      “Off-topic, I saw Hilary Benn on TV waxing indignant that MPs might not be able to have a meaningful vote on an EU exit deal if it had already signed by the government … ”

      “… he was in the House to participate in all the meaningless votes on the Nice Treaty, which having been signed by Robin Cooke on February 26th 2001 was duly approved by MPs without them being able to change as much as a comma even if they wanted to, which as far as I can tell did not bother Hilary Benn or any other Labour MPs who may now have belatedly discovered the paramount value of parliamentary sovereignty.

      Then there was the Lisbon Treaty, by which time he was a minister urging MPs to vote for a treaty which had been signed by Gordon Brown and David Miliband and then dumped down on MPs as yet another fait accompli … ”

      Etc etc.

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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