2010-17 Huge increase in tax revenue, increase in public spending, deficit well down

The BBC want to peddle myths about austerity. On thursday I heard the World at One programme devoted to telling us there had been a big austerity drive in the public sector since 2010. They used the old Treasury figure that 80% of the adjustment to get the deficit down was made by public spending cuts, and 20% by increased taxes. The entire programme was devoted to this thesis, without any cash numbers for either revenue or spending being mentioned throughout!

So let me have another go at explaining what actually happened.  There was a huge increase in tax paid which cut the deficit and allowed some increase in total public spending. Most of the tax rise came from growth in the economy, with some help from lower Income Tax rates. Judged by the numbers 100% of the deficit reduction came from more tax revenue. Of course some individual programmes were cut, but overall spending rose substantially in cash terms. The benefits bill is well up despite a good fall in unemployment. Health and education, large spending programmes, were protected from reductions. Payments to the EU and in Overseas Aid went up substantially.

In 2009-10 the state spent £669.7bn on current and capital public spending. it raised just £490.3 bn of this in tax. There were some additional receipts, leaving borrowing of a massive £156.4bn

In 2017-18  (Budget figures) the state spent £795.3bn. That is £125.6bn more than in 2009-10, a cash increase of 18.75%, a bit above inflation.

In 2017-18 the state collected a massive £692.8bn in tax revenue, an increase of £202.5bn or 41.3% above 2009-10 levels. As a result state borrowing fell to just £39.5bn, again after allowing for some other receipts.

In other words the deficit came down thanks to huge revenue increases.

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119 Comments

  1. Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:19 am | Permalink

    Even though your economic data look a little pale compared to e.g. the Netherlands or Ireland or Germany, happy independence day! Becoming a third country soon is now well within team GB’s grasp.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

      The UK GDP growth rate( https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-growth-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/ ) is a lot lower than it should be due to the following headwinds:
      1) the 0.7% overseas development is far higher than the OECD median, of c.0.27% GDP http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/20/how-much-money-do-we-save-when-we-leave-the-eu/#comment-941898
      2) £12Bn pa = 0.6% GDP in EU bung/tribute
      3) 4% of GDP trade deficit with EU, partially offset by 2.5% GDP surplus with RoW.
      4) 2017-18 onwards HM Treasury & BoE’s fiscal & monetary tightening (http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/09/27/the-uk-should-stop-the-fiscal-and-monetary-tightening/ http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/04/slowing-economies/ http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/09/time-to-boost-the-economy/)
      5) £80Bn tax rebate to multnationals etc https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/840390/Brexit-latest-weekly-cost-Britain-EU-membership

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

        @Richard:
        Interestingly, your link under 5) starts with a filmclip showing that the net UK contribution is only £161m a week (iso £350m in the leave campaign), and per day this works out as 35p per UK citizen. How the demagogues manage to amplify this to huge amounts given to “the evil empire” is a sign of their power to influence gullible people.
        If “the following headwinds” in your contribution are the real explanation, time will tell. Various economists can live their own truths, just like manmade climate change deniers could. In the end (maybe in ten years?), we’ll know better.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      Anyone would think the EU wasn’t committing cultural suicide from your post.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

        @Anonymous: Unity in diversity, my anonymous friend. Unity proves sometimes very hard (like now on migration) but “committing cultural suicide” is a just Anglosaxon wishful thinking. Sorry Mr. Humphrey, we’ll survive these disunities.

        • Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

          So explain to me how the immigration policy of the four Visigrad nations (no Islamic immigration) will be reconciled with that of Angela Merkel (let them all come, and issue chastity belts to the ladies of Cologne, Hamburg and Stuttgart).

        • Posted June 25, 2018 at 7:30 am | Permalink

          Unity or authority Mr V?

        • Posted June 25, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

          PvL, It’s not in our interests for you to commit cultural suicide. Try again.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

      You are claiming that the absolute tax take in Ireland or the Netherlands was greater than the UK? Can’t wait for the EU data after we leave.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

        @ji: an absolute tax revenue in a larger country tends to be larger, that is to do with size.
        But e.g. Ireland had a YoY GDP growth of 8.4% and the UK 1.2% (poor people in N.Ireland being cut off by from such growth, being in the UK) and the Netherlands had 2.8% GDP growth, still more than twice the UK growth.
        Only 279days, ji, keep patient! 🙂

        • Posted June 25, 2018 at 10:03 am | Permalink

          That’s wonderful news about Ireland, the UK government should match their company taxation advantages in Northern Ireland to create a level playing field in Ireland.

          Then Ireland should use that big increase in GDP to pay our loan back as well as the interest and perhaps it’s time to increase their interest charge to the same rate that English students are charged for their student loan. Or wouldn’t the EU allow us to do that?

  2. Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:39 am | Permalink

    Having heard the same broadcast, it is a pity that Liz Truss, as Chief Secretary, and well placed to know the figures, could not make the same point. In fairness, however, she could not get halfway through a sentence without interruption.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

      Page 8 of this report by David Smith:
      http://www.politeia.co.uk/a-40bn-boost-for-the-uk-economy-by-sheila-lawlor/
      “More intriguing are the results of the two tax reduction scenarios which suggest that the UK may now be on the wrong side of the aggregate Laffer curve.”

      This means that higher tax rates will actually decrease HM Treasury’s total tax received – and that the UK is now very over-taxed.

  3. Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:47 am | Permalink

    The BBC has a deficit in its credibility. Much of its programme content is unfit for purpose. BBC employees are paid to communicate & inform others. Those who deliver false information should be fined & expelled.

    • Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:24 am | Permalink

      There would be almost no one left at the BBC if they did that!

  4. Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:58 am | Permalink

    Why do you think the BBC (and others) refuse to acknowledge these facts? Genuine, if naive, question.

    • Posted June 25, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      Keith Willey, The BBC is institutionally pro-Labour and pro-Remain. To the BBC Hilary Benn is just an ordinary middle-of-the-road chap.

  5. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:02 am | Permalink

    The BBC is the last place to go to learn anything useful or truthful. They would hate to have to praise the Conservative party for anything, just as they don’t want to report anything positive about Trump. I am waiting for them to stir up a wave of hysteria before his arrival into the UK. All I know is that we do better with a Conservative government in power than a Labour government. Mind you, we could do even better with a decent chancellor such as yourself John.

  6. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:12 am | Permalink

    “The BBC want to peddle myths about austerity”
    It is hard for the BBC getting an audience. They use economy dim green bulbs in Newsnight. It’s cost me many a telly as I banged on the top trying to restore brightness. Their presenters are unenlightening too and worth every ruble in salary.

    • Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:09 am | Permalink

      Myths on economics, “the envy of the world” NHS, on climate alarmism, on human rights, on so called “renewable” energy, the EU and endless other PC drivel. Rather like T May and P Hammond and other daft Libdims. This while choosing people on certain racial, gender and disability characteristics – rather than ability which is clearly blatant active discrimination against many.

  7. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:22 am | Permalink

    Thanks for setting it out clearly. Unfortunately the BBC has become a purveyor of fake news on subjects where it has a clear political axe to grind. These include Brexit, the ‘cuts’ under the Conservative and Coalition govts since 2010, Trump, and global warming and its effects. It’s not that you get falsehoods, it’s just, as in this example, fact free assertions of what amounts to a political view, with more air time and more favourable interviewing (fewer interruptions) for those espousing the approved BBC viewpoint.

    I thought the Cameron Govt did ok clearing up the disaster of Labour which came close to bankrupting the Country. I couldn’t give it more than 6/10 as there was so much more which could have been done to make the economy more dynamic. I’m much less positive about Mrs May, her “£394m pw for the NHS” without any condition or commitment on reforms is a depressing sign, and her EU negotiation is clearly shambolic.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

      How many more lives will they be able to “shorten” for £394m pw?

      Or how many whistle blowers will they be able to silence for 20+ years?

  8. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    “2010-17 Huge increase in tax revenue” Most of it paid in my myself, I feel.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

      Page 8 of this report by David Smith:
      http://www.politeia.co.uk/a-40bn-boost-for-the-uk-economy-by-sheila-lawlor/
      “More intriguing are the results of the two tax reduction scenarios which suggest that the UK may now be on the wrong side of the aggregate Laffer curve.”

      This means that higher tax rates will actually decrease HM Treasury’s total tax received – and that the UK is now very over-taxed.

  9. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:31 am | Permalink

    Wow! after all of that?..all of these billions are making me dizzy

    so what does all of this mean- should I save up the little I have or spend all?

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

      It means the Government have more of our money to waste or re-distribute to undeserving causes.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

      taxatipbest thing to do is spend it all..david davis says we’re going to walk away and that brexit will be fantastic..he’s starting to sound a lot like Trump..anyway the gist of it is we’re going to be so well off we won’t need to be concerned about everyday things like spending and taxatipn

  10. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    In the light of what is current in politics at the moment the future of the BBC is for next summer term. However, that it is a political entity with it’s own agenda is well beyond dispute. It must be driven to regain it’s Reithian principals. Most of what it does is good, apart from odd excursions into such as Country File with it’s own message. The cancer lies within News and Current Affaires. How about compulsory advertising of all posts in the Telegraph dragging them away from the genetic pot of the Guardian. This way we might get a greater, less left wing political application spread.

  11. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:46 am | Permalink

    2010-17 Huge increase in tax revenue, increase in public spending, deficit well dow

    Yes, but what value do we get from all this money spent and largely wasted by the state sector? What huge damage has been done to the private sector for subsequent years by this huge overtaxation of the productive.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:47 am | Permalink

      I suppose we get lots of lives shortened by the “envy of no one” NHS, unfilled pot holes everywhere, the absurd waste of money that is HS2, aircraft carriers without aircraft, load of people with worthless degrees and large debts (that they with will never repay and load of overpaid bureaucrats with gold plated pensions who like bossing people about to make them less productive.

      • Posted June 23, 2018 at 10:51 am | Permalink

        Plus of course lots of expensive (often stationary) windmills & roofs covered in pointless expensive photovoltaics in say cloudy manchester.

  12. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:04 am | Permalink

    Encouraging mentions of ‘No Deal’ in the news today. Davis, Fox and Rees-Mogg all speak about it.

    It might just be paper talk but it sets the right mood music.

  13. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    It’s time for the government to come up with some specific vision of what happens after all the transition and buffer periods – or immediately in the event of no deal. What about joining the TPP which Trump withdrew from? An immediate off the shelf free trade deal with a doz other countries. All the news is driven by hysterical prognoses from Continuity Remain, it needs to be countered.

  14. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    Boris Johnson, who has been quiet recently, chipped in with the phrase ‘bog roll Brexit’ which is ‘soft, yielding and seemingly infinitely long’. He is against it.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

      But is ‘Brexit means sweet FA May’ against a bog roll Brexit? I suspect not. The dreadful man Alastair Campbell was on tv the other day repeating the T May lie that ‘we have control of our borders by being out of Schengen’. He (and T May) clearly the electorate are very dim indeed.

  15. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    The problem here is not the figures but the BBC.

    A mass boycott is needed.

    It will be popular. People who simply don’t want to pay the licence will join in. They cannot possibly prosecute millions of people and we crowd fund the ones they do.

    The BBC has to go.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:30 am | Permalink

      How clever the EU has been. It’s long (very long) game of 4D chess.

      It has us turning against our Parliament, Lords and broadcasting institutions.

      It will be Royalty too if the Clooneys are allowed to get too close.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

      I suspect the female portion of the population, more than the male, like the BBC for its soaps and its period dramas. Is this being sexist, I don’t know?
      The BBC’s political stance, of which men do take notice, is appalling. Perhaps it needs to be chopped up into its component parts. One thing for sure, it is not worth the TV tax.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

      The BBC is hugely damaging big government propaganda. Lefty, high tax, green crap, climate alarmist, anti science, pro EU, PC loons and left dopes from ‘the arts’. They tax you and then use your money to tell you how to ‘think’ or rather how not to think.

  16. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    Unfortunately Mr Redwood this isn’t going to convince people in my area who have adult sons and daughters who are very severely disabled or those caring for a relative with dementia. Our local council, like many others, has pursued a course of culling services. They dress it up with claptrap about getting rid of institutions, inclusion in the community etc but the bottom line is that this is driven by cost cutting directives. These are people that any humane, decent society would recognise as needing support from the state, community (call it what you will) and they just cannot support themselves under any circumstances. Without a welfare state they would mostly die off quickly because they would wander off and have ‘accidents’ . That is why such people appear not to exist in some parts of the world. Our society has created extensive expectations but is falling short on the means to fulfill them.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

      Our host has posted several times in favour of government paying for social care, and indeed it is easy to make the case, as Spratt does eloquently here.

      However, it is yet another extension of the state into an area hitherto the responsibility of the individual. The state is, of course, always willing to do more, to grow larger, take more tax, employ more people, become more important and more powerful.

      In our eagerness to solve our problems by dumping them onto everyone else, we shouldn’t forget that the larger the state the smaller the citizen, and that we were once proud to be a free people with all the personal responsibility that implied.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

      I have very low expectation from the UK public sector it is a complete and utter sick joke. Vast sums of money and almost nothing of value as output. Just look at the NHS.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

      Spratt

      Whilst I empathise, what you say isn’t entirely true , certainly not in my part of the world anyway. I am involved with a local Dementia charity that does a huge amount of work in the community, also we hold regular workshops for business on becoming dementia friendly and supporting and indeed hiring people with dementia & other needs. Our local volunteer and business community are incredibly supportive of people with supported needs.

      Whilst I agree that local council spending can be rather bizarre

      I’m the unpaid CEO of a Childrens Charity , our council grant was cut by 50% last year, on the day they told me I arrived back in my office ( my own private business with a multimillion turnover) to an email from the same council offering me a zero interest, unsecured business loan of up to £1 million. The money exists its how your elected representatives choose to spend it. I suggest if you dont like how they do that you stop voting for them . It is important that we have a functioning welfare state but please dont dismiss the fantastic work done by the voluntary and local charity/third sector organisations

  17. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    The BBC is continuing to be overly pessimistic always seeing the glass half empty.

    It portrays an image of the country that is without hope and takes little account of the opportunities ahead. It should stop spreading room and gloom

  18. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    Thank you for the invaluable contribution of putting into public discourse perspectives such as this. Its an exemplary example of real public service as were your thoughts on the public debt earlier in the week

    . I’ll be raising a glass to you on Brexit Day.

  19. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    How is it that the BBC are not concerned with telling the truth but only with what fits with its left wing thesis? I hope you sent them several copies of this.
    It was always apparent that Mr Osbourne simply follwed in Gordon Brown’s footsteps and Mr Hammond is doing the same. What is the point in voting Conservative in these circumstances? If any country needs a dose of common sense from Mr Trump, it is this one. He might even build a wall along the border with Scotland!

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

      Indeed.

  20. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    Theresa May refuses to say that she wants UK to remain ‘tier one’ military power I read.

    Listening to LBC over the last few days the anger of all the callers against “Brexit means sweet FA to May” was massive. Not one caller (and most were essentially Tory supporters) was prepared to defend her.

    Basically they though she was not a leader and never would be. That she still believed in remain her heart. Also that her (and Hammond’s) highest taxes for 40 years and increasing still, borrow and piss down the drain economics and her failure to put quality controls on immigration was a complete disaster. They thought she was also an appalling Home Secretary.

    The only question is when is she to be replaced and by whom. A friend of mine (whose judgement used to be quite sound) was suggesting Ruth Davidson. I can only assume his age is sadly now affecting his judgement badly. She or anyone like her is the very last thing the Tories need. We need what Cameron totally falsely claimed that he was – a low tax at heart, Euroskeptic and a real Conservative. What a wasted golden opportunity this was by abandon ship Cameron.

  21. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    It grates with me when I hear the media talk about UK government austerity.
    Austerity is when you tighten your belt to pay down your debt, and not borrowing yet more.
    If I had my way, I would ration benefits according to how well the economy is running, and then pensions as well, if that’s what’s needed to balance the books.

    Happy Brexit Day!

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

      I expect that would get rid of a lot of pensioners, so reducing the pension bill.

  22. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    Why is parliament steadfast in its demand that to lawfully consume the live television output of any other provider from anywhere in the world, we must pay the BBC tax, especially when harmful propaganda like the “World at One” programme is offered by the BBC?

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

      It couldn’t be, could it, that the government is happy with the propaganda that the BBC spews out? It would certainly appear so.

  23. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    Austerity.

    That means taking home less pay.

    Or do you just define austerity as you having less of other people’s money to waste?

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

      Dr GP

      Its the same thing, you have less take home pay because you’ve given more of it to the government to waste

  24. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    On this independence birthday, brexit is still 280 days away. The current referendum loss (brexit is stil a future) stands at 2.1% or £440 million a week, which can only partly be compensated for by a future brexit “dividend”, claimed to be gross £350 million a week. Hmm, glad I live at the other side of the North Sea!

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

      We’re glad you live there as well Peter.
      Your relentless propaganda has failed so a period of silence is long overdue.
      Please direct your machinations towards solving the German inspired refugee problems or the Italian borrowing crisis. After all they are still part of your beloved EU.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

      Pvl. I see you are in gloating mood yet again. How very sad. A bit like our Andy. Still at least you are both good for a laugh.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

      So are we…

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

      Odd figures, how do you get a 2.1% loss?
      Since the referendum date all we’ve had is positive growth and a rising GDP

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:39 am | Permalink

        @Edward2: I’ve used English sources, easy enaough for you to find. What I’ve called a “loss”is that UK growth has already slowed by 2.1%.
        I read that Mr. Redwood cites other reasons for the slowdown than the post referendum insecurity, but he might be in a rather small minority on this.

        • Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

          Oh you are quoting that pro EU Research body’s report.
          What might have happened with the emphasis on might.
          The computer model criteria looks very strange to me.
          It depends if you want to believe any growth alteration in the UK is due only to Brexit.
          Apparently you do.

        • Posted June 27, 2018 at 12:35 am | Permalink

          Are you aware of predictions that Robotics allied to Artificial Intelligence (particularly AI programming that allows robots to learn from their mistakes) will eventually see the destruction of one third of current jobs.

          With this in mind, we need unskilled foreign labour like we need a hole in the head.

          Do the famous and fatuous Treasury forecasts take this into account?

    • Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      PvL: “glad I live at the other side of the North Sea!”

      And Peter, so are we. ( Just joking. But I wonder, is Dutch politics so tedious that there isn’t enough of it to keep you occupied ? You could do us a useful service, and tell us a bit about what’s going on in the Netherlands, or you could continue to whinge interminably about BREXIT.)

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:43 am | Permalink

        @APL: Actually yes, at this moment Dutch politics is rather boring, but I always listen/watch more international news, as also for the multilingual “use or lose” remains a fact of life. I’m sorry not to speak any Italian, because that would now be an interesting country to understand more about.

        • Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

          What you need to understand about Italy is that its attitude towards the Euro, and that of Greece, is very different from that of Germany. Germany wants a hard currency with no fiscal transfers. Italy and Greece want a soft currency and/or fiscal transfers from Germany to them. The Italian head of the ECB favours the southern European version but Germany is limiting the amounts of Italian and Greek bonds that the ECB is allowed to purchase.

    • Posted June 25, 2018 at 9:27 am | Permalink

      PvL, Your quoted figures are fictitious because they are based on the Treasury/BoE view as if we had voted Remain, which clearly didn’t happen. You are neglecting the fact that the Treasury actually forecast (in 2016) a recession after a Leave vote (forecast 3% – 6% GDP reduction). That translates to about -2% to -4% recession on UK GDP, not the growth we’ve actually had.

  25. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    30% of taxes go on the state debts.

    That means taxes are 30% higher than they should be.

    The public should ask, would they have austerity if they took 30% more home?

    Could they afford their mortgage etc.

    So on Brexit, one of the causes is now clear.

    You are selling residency to EU nationals for £65, a one off payment, and that means they get £12,000 of services [on average] year in year out.

    • Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      I was wondering why anyone would join the Army to die for a country that sells its citizenship so cheaply at a time of overcrowding.

      65 quid.

  26. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    “a big austerity drive” Mrs Sturgeon and others speak about the terrible “austerity”. Where were they for the last few decades? Jobs galore!Why haven’t more Scots emigrated to Greece and Portugal and so receive the majestic bounty of EU membership?

    I’m all for such Remoaners getting a government funded £10 ticket ( like the ten pound pom scheme ) to their choice of EU state, where they can set up designer black bag cosy home and joyfully join in with communal chemical latrines. There may be, if they are lucky, be part-time jobs available in cleaning them. What a bargain!

  27. Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    In “real terms”, government Total Managed Expenditure (TME) has stayed constant at about £770 billion since 2011. This was Osborne’s original plan for a budget surplus. It didn’t work then and it won’t work now either. Not without flat-lining the economy, if not worse. (See tables in chapter 1 of PESA)

    The OBR Fiscal forecast (table 1.2 in Economic and Fiscal Outlook 02/18) might leave you wondering, who is going to be paying the UK’s large import bill; because it doesn’t look like Mr Hammond is going to!

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

      It will be the purchaser of the product, as opposed the taxpayer who currently pays for Single Market membership.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

      “But; how much has the decision to leave the EU cost the UK economy so far? The CER has conducted a simple modelling exercise to produce an estimate, which we will update quarterly from now on. According to this model, the British economy was 2.1 per cent smaller in the first quarter of 2018 than it would have been if the referendum had gone the other way.” (http://www.cer.eu/insights/whats-cost-brexit-so-far)

      There are more Brexit Mickey Mouse forecasting models out there than you can shake a stick at. The CER model uses the same methodology as a drug company has to use, for testing the efficacy of a new medicine.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

        acorn

        Wrong

        As the owner ( of a very small) drug company I can tell you that is NOT the methodology we use for testing new drugs, its not even remotely similar. You have conflated two completely different things based on the similarity of names

        You’ve heard the saying GIGO ( garage in garbage out) well the CER report is entirely that. Its a typical “economist” model. Nonsense just like the rest. You’d be better off with astrology

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

      acorn

      Have you not heard of MMT ? Simple just print more money into existence according to some of the more “enlightened economists ” on this forum

  28. Posted June 23, 2018 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    And now you want to tax us even more to pay for the NHS increases. Peter Oborne in the DM this morning is essential reading exposing the announcement as a political sham to out flank Corbyn, the latest polls shows it hasn’t worked and another assault on the hard working middle classes, your core vote.

    Your article indicates how proud you are that it was not austerity that did it, which would have been good house keeping the Conservative way or indeed the businessman in you.

    No,it is the Blair/Brown approach of this joyless Prime Minister, you are extolling.

  29. Posted June 23, 2018 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Of course another way of putting it, particularly if you are of a left wing persuasion, is that although tax revenue increased by 41% , public spending only increased by 18% which proves how harshly austerity is being applied!

  30. Posted June 23, 2018 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    And from the working class level, I see a govt that allow in thousands of people every year to cost us millions, if not billions, by freeloading, never working, never paying taxes. We pay their and our own council tax, we have to keep the rooves over our own heads AND theirs, We have to pay for their AND our own NHS, as is their kids schooling, which ends up with an English child being told they have to move schools (because someone with an unpronounceable name has arrived in the UK and is seen as more important).
    Cable thieves are costing us the same, they don’t care if they get injured while cutting through live high-power feeds as they will be took to a different hospital to ensure their health treatment ( which they haven’t paid anything towards ) as they have just blacked out the nearest hospital in their intention to steal the cable supplying it. If caught (fat chance ) they are bailed, vanish back to their European home and another one instantly arrives to carry on the crime. Meanwhile the decent people of the UK get cost increases to pay for the cables replacement, which the thieves instantly know is another load of cash waiting to be stolen.
    Keep allowing them in and keep putting our taxes /costs up to pay for their activities. Unsustainable. Believe it or not – our pockets are NOT bottomless.

  31. Posted June 23, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    The following from Richard Madely in The Express is worth repeating (sorry to go O/T):

    The Brexit debate has become horribly incestuous. Not in the real world where most people grasp the fundamental democratic imperative that the referendum result was clear, unambiguous and must be respected but on the increasingly insane Planet Westminster.

    MPs have stopped talking to us. They’re talking exclusively to themselves and what they are saying is unintelligible. So three cheers for Labour’s Caroline Flint, below, who told it like it is.

    She lost her temper at a meeting of her party’s MPs when Remainers made their now-reflex and patronising allegation that people who voted Leave didn’t really understand what they were doing.

    “You are basically saying that my constituents are thick,” Ms Flint exploded.

  32. Posted June 23, 2018 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    In the Express today David Davis talks of “Our fantastic future out of the EU”. Has anybody told him that “fantastic” is the adjective related to the noun “fantasy”?

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

      And pedantic comes from the word pedant.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

        Indeed, well done! 10/10.

        • Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

          Thanks
          I was impressed too.

  33. Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    And yet the Chancellor still wants to raise taxes for the NHS.

  34. Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    Great..and now that we have a reduced deficit thanks to huge revenue increases..where are we going to go from here?..now with huge industries planning to decamp because of all the uncertainty about..maybe we’re going to need this and whatever other revenue advantage we can get..talking about the economy it’s hard to see now how we are going to prosper into the future by the way we are going..this morning our minister for international trade Liam Fox (home from his overseas duties) seems to be sending out threats to the EU that if we don’t get our way then mrs may will walk away..well as we voted to walk away anyway what is the point in making threats..so just walk away..if we dare..idiots

  35. Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    Two years since we voted to leave the EU, and can anybody explain what is going on?

    We have Theresa May saying EU freedom of movement of persons must cease, but her Business Secretary Greg Clark saying that it must continue, even while a new poll shows yet again that a great majority of UK citizens want immigration to be drastically reduced which will not be possible if Greg Hands gets his way.

    Then we have Theresa May averring that we will leave the EU Customs Union and the EU Single Market, but reportedly wanting to stay in them for manufactured goods.

    And we also have Theresa May implicitly accepting that it will be our fault, not the EU’s fault, should we end up with the EU imposing checks on goods as they enter across the Irish land border, basically agreeing with our opponent Guy Verhofstadt when he tells Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Commons committee meeting that “The rules are the rules, you cannot change the rules”, while we have Jean-Claude Juncker in Dublin reassuring the Irish Parliament that under no circumstances will there be a hard border …

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:28 am | Permalink

      Greg Clark, not Hands.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

      Dennis Cooper..the real problem is that our Ministet for International Trade Liam Fox has absolutely nothing to offer for when after we leave so now he has resorted to a game of bluff ..what he threatens in essence is that the EU better agree to a deal on our terms or Mrs May will walk..all very good brexiteers might say but walk to where..so far our Mr Fox hasn’t got even one altetnative prospective deal lined up that we know of..nor has the government a clue of where we are headed and so now in panic Fox and DD are starting to play hardball..but Barnier and Junker, VerHofstadt etc are wise old campaigners, pissed off, and we can be quite sure they see right through..

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

        There are several problems a lot more real than that … such as the leaders of certain large companies among the 6% of UK companies which export to the EU demanding that we must all remain subject to EU law for the convenience of their businesses, which they have assiduously organised on the basis of EU law but with insufficient flexibility to cope with change.

  36. Posted June 23, 2018 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    As Peter Oborne puts it today:-

    For if the Conservative Party stands for anything, it is keeping public spending under control and keeping taxes down, because individuals almost always spend their money more wisely than governments.

    That is one of the key lessons of economic history, which shows that growth is higher when tax rates are lower.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5876361/PETER-OBORNE-Billions-NHS-slap-face-middle-class-taxpayers.html

  37. Posted June 23, 2018 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    So having accepted all that you say, and knowing what BBC journalists are like, how do we stop them peddling a false agenda?

    Tad Davison

    Cambridge

  38. Posted June 23, 2018 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    Hearing one or two crazed zealots from the anti-democracy march in London today, it is hard accepting our schools allowed them to leave with such deficit in understanding basic ideas and procedures of democracy. Even basic numeracy.

    They lost the Referendum vote.When asked “But did you get a vote and did you vote, they reply superciliously after pocketing their bubble gum neatly into greased wrapping paper Yes but..no but..yes but..but..no but..yes but well people who voted leave, well I mean , well, like, they didn’t’ know what they were voting for, did they?!

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

      I never argue. I just ask them very politely to explain the EU institutions and tell me who their MEP is.

      Not once have they had a clue.

      I doubt Newmania can and I’m absolutely sure Andy can’t.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

      I was on a University Campus a while back, there was a small group of students in blue and gold with flags and banners proclaiming stop Brexit

      Me: Hi what is the demo about

      Student: We dont want to leave the EU

      Me: What do you think has been the best achievement of the EU

      Student : The NHS

      Nuff said innit , and apparently I’m thick and didn’t know what I was voting for

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

        “Student: We dont want to leave the EU”

        Well, there’s always a job waiting for a young educated individual in Spain ( Youth unemployment > 30% ) Greece ( Unemployment 20% ).

        Should apply now for an EU passport. Dover is that way ..

  39. Posted June 23, 2018 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

    What was the response from WATO?

  40. Posted June 23, 2018 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    The BBC is not fit for purpose. It broadcasts propaganda labeled as science. Stop the TV Tax.

  41. Posted June 23, 2018 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Gov increases spending in percentages from 2010 to 2018, not including local Gov.

    Pension up 37.5%, Healthcare up, 22.5%, Education up, 18%, Defence up, 6%, Welfare down 1.7%, Protection, Police down, 11.6%, Transport up 64%, Other-spending which includes Scotland, Wales, N Ireland, overseas aid and EU up 44%, General Gov up 7%, Interest on debt up 86%.
    Since 2010 inflation has increased by 26% on gov CPI, real inflation is 2% a year above that.
    Gov only spending 40B on Education, 60B on Welfare, Police, Protection 15B and Transport 21.5B in 2018, Councils spending, Education, 46B, Welfare, 54.6B, Police, 15.5B and Transport 10.1B and Social care 3.9B in 2018, was 3.2B in 2016.

    Local Gov spending from 2010 to 2018 has increased by 1.8 billion, that just over 1%.
    Local Gov spending in 2010 was 174 billion and in 2017 was 173.7 and in 2018 is 176, so a 5 per cent rise in most council tax bills in 2017 and 2018, 410,000 more property built with property and other assets sold off came to only 2.3 billion overall and out of that, only 300 million extra has gone into social care to which Gov told the people that all of the council taxes rise would go to social care, one might ask, where is all councils money going ?.
    Councils cut social care by 100 million in 2018 to 300M from 400M a year.

  42. Posted June 23, 2018 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    By the way, councils spending social care was 100 million pounds a year in 2010, today at 3.9 pounds, that means all other councils spending has been cut to increase spending on social care.

  43. Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    On this second anniversary of the EU referendum:

    Well done to both David Cameron and Theresa May for causing enough unnecessary delay with Brexit that their pro-EU friends have had time to regroup.

    Well done to David Davis and other ministers for allowing pro-EU black propaganda to be pumped out day after day without any effective contradiction.

    And well done to Olly Robbins and other senior officials, and Jean-Claude Juncker as well, for so cleverly designing your bad advice for Theresa May.

    What a shambles, what an affront to our national democracy, what a disgrace.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

      A shambles YOU voted for. This is what Brexit has always meant. Incoherence.

      Enjoy what you voted for.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

        Yes, Andy, of course I voted for our withdrawal from the EU to be mucked up by a government dominated by politicians who do not really believe in it with the assistance of civil servants who are actively opposed to it.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

        Those of us who voted leave expected our Government to have left by now.
        Simply and cleanly.
        No leaving payment.
        No half in nonsense.
        WTO route just like over 150 other nations.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

      And also well done to all those who have been for years keen to leave the EU and who had not prepared beforehand a proper plan to get out. And please the ridiculous “no problem we leave on WTO conditions” was clearly not properly thought out, by the cohort of Leaver politicians, neither strategy nor tactics, just the usual politico blah blah.
      Reading as I do various continental newspapers it seems rather clear that the EU27 (Commission, influential MEPs, some heads of state) are now working on a no deal scenario, have also met and explored the next (post-2021) EU budget. There are, available for anybody curious enough to look for them, documents stating what cuts in programs, what reorganising budgets, what increases in contributions from various EU27 countries will be/are required in the very near future. And what is the UK doing? Admiring their belly buttons.
      Sorry but we will deserve what is coming.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

        The WTO route works for over 150 nations.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

        Were those people to whom you refer in government?

        No, mostly not.

        Was your hero David Cameron in government?

        Yes, he was Prime Minister, and had been for six years.

        So did your hero David Cameron set in train any preparations, contingency plans, in case he lost the referendum?

        No, he actually forbade the civil services from doing any work on that.

        So who do you think is to blame for the lack of preparations?

        Oh, of course those who wanted to leave the EU but were not in government are to blame, not your pro-EU chums who were in government.

  44. Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    after allowing for some other receipts

    So without fiscal- horseplay and writing down QE the deficit remains over 100 billion.

    And your government wishes to give more to the NHS paid for by our tax?

    I suggest you ask companies to pay their workers (many of whom are imported) themselves rather than having housing benefit and tax credit topping up low wages on the taxpayer.

    The figures above still do not read as well as you would like to project.

  45. Posted June 23, 2018 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    Yesterday the BBC advertised the remain march in London and ignored the planned Brexit march

    Plain bias

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

      You don’t get regular marches covered when you are the status quo. When you are the status quo you only ever get things covered when they go wrong.

      This is how it has always been – Brexit will not change it. You have nowhere to hide the Brexit lies anymore.

      • Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

        Non stop coverage on Sky and BBC so you must be status quo Andy.

        • Posted June 25, 2018 at 11:05 am | Permalink

          Is it my imagination, but ‘Jerry’ seems to have disappeared, ‘Bazman’, gone strangely quiet, but up pops ‘Andy’ spouting the same gibberish. Perhaps it’s a coincidence.

          • Posted June 27, 2018 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

            Wish I hadn’t written that now.

    • Posted June 23, 2018 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

      Such is the EU and state propaganda outfit that is the BBC. They tax you then use your money to tell you how to think . Might not be that bad, but they are always wrong on every single issue.

  46. Posted June 23, 2018 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    I can’t get the figures but it seems only a few thousand turned out in the pro EU march. One would have thought that this turnout would have been much higher in the Remain capital of Britain (London) where the march was reachable in a short and affordable tube trip.

    There ought to have been at least one million.

    The Countryside Alliance at least managed over 400,000 (most of them travelling far) yet were still ignored.

    Clearly this clamour for a reversal among the public is a figment of Andy’s fevered imagination.

    From my own unscientific poll the vast majority want Brexit done and Brexit done with conviction – not this dithering mess that the May-ists have brought us.

  47. Posted June 23, 2018 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    What is about Brexmoaners?

    The BBC is always fair with it’s reporting.

    Brexmoaners are frit over Brexit and will find anything to have a go at the BBC whether it is about the EU or anything they can scrape up to throw mud at the Broadcaster.

    I suggest you spend more time analysing the garbage written in the type of newspapers all the Brexmoaners read.

    • Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:19 am | Permalink

      “The BBC is always fair with it’s reporting.”

      In the early hours of 24th June 2018 the BBC reported
      “The British people have overwhelmingly and decisively decided to Leave the EU. This is a once in a generation vote. We are Leaving!”

      You are correct! . Give a toffee apple and a goldfish in a polythene bag to Blue and Gold.
      So, what is it exactly you don’t get about Democracy and the British way of life?

  48. Posted June 23, 2018 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Dear John,
    can you please use tautology and translate the information into pink sheep and blue cows then I may be able to grasp this complex view.

  49. Posted June 23, 2018 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    Spare us the Vulcanomics, Mr Redwood. If you want evidence for austerity, you look at the bottom of the economic scale. You’ll find a dramatic increase in people falling into poverty since 2010. The foodbanks are all a BBC hoax, I suppose? And councils are all guilty of financial mismanagement? It’s not just about the deficit; it’s about the effect on society as a whole. You don’t look for evidence of austerity, so you conveniently find none.

  50. Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Most people like to see government revenue and expenditure expressed as %s of GDP, so that they can see whether the State is shrinking as well as how the deficit is going down.

    Most people also like to see total State debt expressed as a % of GDP, just to remind the Government not to get carried away by its own propaganda. State debt is still getting on for 90% of GDP – we have not, repeat not, fixed the roof while the sun is shining.

  51. Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:53 am | Permalink

    Your figures may be correct and your conclusion justified. But what exercises the minds of ‘ordinary’ people is that many salaries have been capped, local services cut, libraries closed. Roads are full of unrepaired potholes and the police and NHS are patently understaffed. The macro economics may tell another story but it is these quotidien issues that affect peoples’ lives – the public face of ‘austerity’, if you will.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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