The Bank of England wants to slow the UK economy some more

Mr Haldane’s decision to vote for an immediate interest rate rise this week shows the Bank remains split and uncertain about its forecasts. They are still trying to get over their hopeless forecasts of recession in 2016-17 which was never likely. As Chief Economist he should understand that the tough actions of the FPC of the Bank have slowed credit and activity substantially over the last year. Money growth is very sluggish.
The car market has been brought down by withholding perfectly safe car loans from potential buyers.  The decisions they took to cancel commercial bank facilities, to raise rates by 0.25%, to restrict consumer  credit, and to toughen mortgage criteria have all played their part in slowing the UK to just 0.1% growth in Quarter 1. Quarter 2 will doubtless be a  bit better, but they should not be thinking of more monetary tightening until quarterly growth gets back up to 0.6% or more. There is no likelihood of overheating given current levels of growth and sluggish money and credit. The slow performance in Q1 was not just weather related but points to the effects of policy actions taken. The Treasury has reinforced these problems with their tax attack on Buy to Let and higher priced properties in the 2016 budget and their tax attack on dearer cars in the 2017 budget, along with the general policy moves against diesels.

Some say there is a bit of wage inflation around. It is true the government has boosted low end wages through its Living Wage policy. It is to be hoped that low end wages will rise a bit more as employers compete for labour. It is also  be hoped that firms invest a bit more so the people they employ can be more productive, earn higher wages, and see machines do more of the routine work. The Business department who spend a lot of time agonising over what might go wrong for the car industry when we leave the EU should get on with the day job, defending the car industry against domestic policy changes that clearly damage output whilst we are still fully in the EU. Why have they not spoken out about the bid drop in diesel sales?

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

134 Comments

  1. stred
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:14 am | Permalink

    It’s all part of the reverse Brexit plot. They are deliberately slowing the economy in order to present a disaster. If we win in the end the law should be changed to bring back hanging for treason. Some of them have been caught talking to the EU bureaucrats and asking for the worst possible deal.

  2. Peter Wood
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:25 am | Permalink

    Good Morning,
    Dr. Redwood, I’m sorry I disagree with your analysis strongly. The UK (and perhaps all western economies) are being kept alive by artificially low interest rates, ie below real inflation, and/or quantitative easing (government lender of last resort). This is still occurring 8 YEARS after the recession! And still the government is borrowing. If the economic cycle repeats with a recession as expected, after 9-10 years of growth, we’re in serious trouble.

    • john mchugh
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:14 am | Permalink

      Peter Wood
      Correct. We are still borrowing as our annual budget is year on year in a deficit, adding to the growing national debt of circa (1.9 tn sterling). Annual deficit is now at 45bn sterling from a high of 135bn sterling when Labour left office.
      The interest on this debt is more than the NHS budget.
      All this accrued while in the Eu.

      “There are two ways to enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt” John Adams (1736-1825)

      Italy would do well to leave the Eu but in essence they cannot leave as the country (and its individuals with vested interests) will go bankrupt. They could sell their gold and break even, although market forces would drop the price instantly.
      They have no option but to be owned by world banks …. and led wherever they are told.

      One world government run by the establishment and the so-called elite …. for thre benefit of the establishment and so-called elite.

    • Peter Wood
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:57 am | Permalink

      p.s.1 For those that want to rerun the Brexit referendum; I say let’s have it IF those who want it pay for it, cash in advance.

      p.s.2 The new referendum question should read something like “Do you want your laws to be made in Berlin with no right to remove the law makers? Yes or No.

      p.s. 3. Can we have a new red bus, with lots of ministers riding on it, with the slogan on the side “No Deal = No Cash”

      • HenryS
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

        Peter Wood..don’t worry there will be no rerun of the referendum..A50 has been activated..so 29 march next is leaving day

        We don’t want our laws to be made in London either- with no right to remove the law makers

        The old red bus is still doing the rounds.but not so many ministers on board now..rest assured there will be no deal..because the EU has decided..so the cash payments then will only come into play when we apply for readmission to the bloc in say another generation or so..in the meantime the EU has decided we need some time out to navel gaze

  3. Nig l
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:51 am | Permalink

    That would be the Rt Hon Greg Clark, well known Remainer who allegedly spent time talking with Airbus before it’s recent anti Brexit outburst.

    Enough said!

    • Andy
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:09 am | Permalink

      The Business Secretary talking to businesses – outrageous!

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

        The big news is what isn’t in the news.

        Well… we can be sure that the BBC would have reported a One Million Man March had it happened in London on Saturday.

        It didn’t.

        Instead we’ve moved on quickly. Nothing to see here. Just ‘a few thousand’ bothered to turn up – despite it being a Saturday, with affordable tube connections… in the 8 million person metropolis which is so avowedly Remain.

        Andy.

        Most people have accepted the Brexit result and want us out as quickly and cleanly as possible.

        This clinging to the EU is the preserve of the Westminster clique and you and Newmania it seems.

      • Tick-Tock
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

        Good point Andy.
        But the main point is that we voted Leave and that view on the Airbus was expressed forcefully before the vote. Therefore the UK leader of Airbus should have made provisions by now for his relocation. It is a bit late nine months before we leave saying “Oh we’ll have to do this and that IF we leave.”Bad planning!” He must have heard about the result . It was in the early hours of 24th June 2016 . No bags packed yet! The clock is ticking.

        • Tick-Tock
          Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

          If he can drive a removal van, it may be cheaper than hiring a van and, a driver.
          It is possible to flit using railways, cheaper still. They’ll pick up his stuff and deliver it to any address in EU -Land.

      • NickC
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

        Andy, He could talk to all businesses not just the pro-Remain anti-reform rump : that really would be outrageous for a Remain politician.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:19 am | Permalink

      Ex-president of Cambridge University Social Democrats it seems. I assume he thought he had a far better career chance in politics if he pretended to be a Conservative and certainly true in Tunbridge Wells.

      Similar in very many ways to Ken Clark, Ted Heath, John Major, Dave Cameron and T May. Pretend to be a real Tory at elections then kick your supporters in the teeth directly after each election.

  4. Bankster(Reformed)
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:57 am | Permalink

    Some Minister recently, can’t remember his name, crowed on about the number of”New banks” have gone into business in the UK. I know one of those banks pretty well. That it was given a banking licence is absolutely nothing to crow about.
    It shows an unbelievable “ignorance” of on-the-ground workings of that New bank’s former behaviour. It is, unbelievable, and I am not prepared believe it was true ignorance as Ministers and people in granting licences are extremely intelligent, have research facilities , presumably, and many inputs of personal knowledge.

  5. Martyn G
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    John, you ask “Why have they not spoken out about the big drop in diesel sales?”
    Because, I suggest, it would expose all those involved to having a lack of common sense and being driven by the green lobby. It would also re-expose the quickly forgotten loss of jobs arising from their actions. All bad news for a struggling government…..

    • Turboterrier.
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

      Martyn G

      Because, I suggest, it would expose all those involved to having a lack of common sense and being driven by the green lobby.

      Spot on the money. Any politician dabbling with the fear of the green lobby all fall into three clear pigeon holes. Incompetence based upon ignorance and protected by arrogance because they will never admit they have got it all wrong.

      Help the car industry is very easy. Increase all road fund licences by £250 for all vehicles before 2000. All up to 2008 by £200, up 2013 by £150 and from 2018 by £100. If they must keep the envy tax on all new cars over £45K but do not keep hammering those who have earnt the money and paid taxes on it who aspire to owning a up market car. The new breed of vehicle engines are improving year on year, create a new market by pricing the old ones off of the road, Electric vehicles are not the panacea to all that is wrong with our transport policies.

  6. agricola
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:20 am | Permalink

    They, the Treasury and many politicians in the Business Department have not spoken out because they are ignorant of the consequences of what they do and say, and more importantly they are technically illiterate. They did not become civil servants and politicians to gain an understanding of business and industry. God forbid ever getting their hands dirty. Ask yourself , how many in the Business Department have ever run a successful business We are being piloted by the cabin staff.

    • formula57
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

      Margot James had created her own business and was soon removed to Culture, Media and Sport – perhaps because she knew too much?

    • ChrisS
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

      “We are being piloted by the cabin staff.”

      What a wonderful analogy !

      Anyone know whether Mrs May ever work for BOAC ?

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

        Wouldn’t trust her doling out the sick bags, never mind the escape chute.

        (How did the flight in the Hercules go the other day btw ? Hope they didn’t try a tactical landing. Euuch !)

      • Mark B
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 6:16 am | Permalink

        +1

  7. Adam
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    The Bank of England has been independent for over 20 years. If the UK Govt leadership was competent, it wouldn’t need a separate independent body, such as the BoE or OBR, to keep it in rigid check. To that extent, Lifelogic’s frequent criticism of TM & PH may be valid.

    The UK needs independence from the EU, partly because the EU leadership is errant & incompetent too.

  8. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    What exactly is the point of this article, JR, apart from giving our enemies foreign and domestic another opportunity to repeat their various items of fake news about how Brexit has already damaged the UK economy, and so undermine and hopefully prevent Brexit, while for some reason evidence based contradictions of their brazen lies do not appear?

  9. Lifelogic
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    You are exactly right on all this. The bank/government property lending restrictions are absurdly damaging. I am turning down some property developments and other investments due to silly banking restrictions on property lending. I thought they wanted more houses built! These restrictions have nothing to do with risk just the daft rules and lack of real competition in banking. The banks are slow and getting away with huge margins. One of the main four bank now charges nearly about 68%% interest on personal overdrafts (even for the most solid customers). They call it a “daily fee”. I assume this is so they can get away without quoting the actually % rate. Yet they pay you less than 0.5% on deposits.

    Leave an account £70 overdrawn and after 20 years you will owe them over £2.3 million. Leave £70 in an account for the same period and you might get back £100 if lucky. Where are the competition authorities and banking ombudsman here? It is a complete and utter rip off racket. A disguised one too.

  10. Andy
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    Diesel cars poison our children.

    The government is right not to want to kill kids.

    This is a small mercy as it is wrong on everything else.

    The economy is dire because we have a car crash Tory Brexiteers in charge.

    The most incompetent, clueless government we have had since the war.

    And – by far – nastiest too.

    • john mchugh
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:20 am | Permalink

      Andy.
      See my post above about our debt. We are in a race to the bottom if we stay in the Eu.
      Leaving the Eu will give us a chance to survive.

      • Blue and Gold
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

        I volunteer for a nationally known charity. Today at work our Deputy Manager , who is Italian, asked by a customer ‘Why don’t you go back to your own country?’.

        These are the disgusting sort of comments coming from people who voted to leave the EU, along of course with death threats to MPs.

        As a comment in City AM said today, this Brexit business will be going on forever. The country is permanently divided now.

        • Edward2
          Posted June 26, 2018 at 7:26 am | Permalink

          Usual remainer’s one example tactic to try to smear the whole population as suddenly being anti foreigner because of brexit.
          Quite ridiculous.

    • Richard1
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:52 am | Permalink

      Let us recall that it was at the behest of the EU – due to the influence of the German car industry and the green blob – that we made the big push for diesel, as other countries in Europe did. 50% diesel in the EU vs 5% in the US. Thousands have died prematurely. How did this happen? Because there is no proper mechanism for public debate and democratic scrutiny of EU measures. EU laws and regs just land as a fait accompli after a process which starts with special interest lobbying of the commission and is finalised in private intergovernmental trade offs. Democracy isn’t perfect and often produces poor results, but it’s better than this.

      • roger
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

        Please provide link to thousands of death certificates that verify your statement above.

        • Richard1
          Posted June 25, 2018 at 11:42 am | Permalink

          See numerous reports. Why do you think diesel is suddenly so unpopular with authorities and being phased out / banned?

    • Edward2
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

      Cars are only 20% of urban air pollution.
      The rest is caused by you youngsters with your bbq’s and log burning stoves.
      Plus trains boats motorbikes aircraft lorries taxis buses construction equipment and agricultural machinery.
      Your beloved EU caused this by campaigning for everyone to move to diesel powered vehicles.
      This was against automotive engineering advice but they were obsessed with CO2 reduction.
      So now it’s all back to petrol.
      PS no children have bern killed Andy
      Just a very weak report based on computer models suggesting a slight reduction in lifetime expectency of a few months. ..Maybe.

    • Woody
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

      Bliar and Brown.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

      So why is life expectancy still so good (despite the efforts of some of the NHS). This despite the fact that so many people eat far too much?

      Electric cars use just as much energy and cause just as much pollution, though this pollution is generally produced outside the city centres.

      .

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

      Doubtless you were at the anti Brexit march yesterday, Andy.

      Apparently ‘a few thousand’ turned out in the Remain capital of Britain.

      Wow.

      Unfortunately the elite listen to you and not me, mate.

      • hefner
        Posted June 30, 2018 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

        And at the other so-called Brexit march there were so few people that the picture published was in fact from another march likely held during the winter months (people with coats, leafless trees). So were you there last Saturday?

    • Turboterrier.
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      Diesel cars poison our children.

      Get a life Andy. Far more kids are damaged and poisoned by their parents who do not encourage exercise and stuff junk food down their necks

    • mancunius
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

      “Diesel cars poison our children.”

      As Evelyn Waugh said, when a woman visitor to Combe Florey was fussing over the possibility of ‘one of her children falling down a well’: ‘Nothing so easily replaceable!’

      • HenryS
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

        Mancunius..more than diesel cars..also sweet and fatty foods is the concern of government now..but can’t help wondering if it’s got something more to do with the level of fitness of teenagers and young people for the army- in case the need arises?

    • a-tracy
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

      Andy, we have Tory Remainers in charge.

      Tory Brexiteer and not just Rees Mogg;
      Johnson, Leadsome, Gove, Fox, Patel need to step out of the shadows.

    • Stuffer of my face
      Posted June 25, 2018 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

      “Diesel cars poison our children.” What with kids eating chips and sucking sugar cubes all day at school it’s a wonder there are any kids left…so we might as well have diesel…but I wouldn’t recommend putting it in teas, coffee and lovely cream cakes and chocolate

  11. hans christian ivers
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:13 am | Permalink

    The UK economy has not been slowed by the BoE or by any ministry but simply by the Brexit referendum, I am afraid your analysis is flawed.

    According to the CER “We know two years from the referendum, we now know that the Brexit vote has seriously damaged the economy.”

    THe UK economy is now the slowest growing economy of the G7 after Italy. (CER).

    The CER made an analysis of the UK economy on how it would have grown by looking at which countries GDP, consumption, investment, that best mirrored the performance of the UK economy up to 20 years before the referendum.

    We have in the past two years lost 2.1% growth or the equivalent of £23 billion lost revenue for the Treasury.

    So, even if this figure is only half of what has been lost it much more clearly explains why , we now growth compared to your comments, John.

    • libertarian
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

      Andy

      And the biggest promotors of diesel cars was……. Your EU

      The biggest builders of diesel cars….. The German Car industry

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

        Diesels made policy at the behest of Germany.

    • libertarian
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:15 am | Permalink

      hans

      I just read the CER ( A pro Europe think tank) report ….. Ha ha ha what a pile of garbage

      Its assumptions, based on theories, based on projections assuming forecasts and without inputting any other positive variables

      No wonder economists are less accurate and less well trusted than astrologers

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

        It just not change the facts about economic performance , unfortunately,

        • NickC
          Posted June 25, 2018 at 10:01 am | Permalink

          Hans, Your views are based on forecasts of what might have been if we had voted Remain. Guesses are not facts.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted June 25, 2018 at 10:39 am | Permalink

            NickC

            wake up we are already growing less that half of the rest of Europe and according to Wood McKenzie interviewing 800 UK companies half of them have already cut investments in the UK.

            Are you awake?

          • libertarian
            Posted June 27, 2018 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Sadly for you I’m wide awake

            Quote from trading economics

            Direct Investment in the United Kingdom increased by 8667 GBP Million in the fourth quarter of 2017.

            From Reuters

            UK landed record foreign investment in 2016

            https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-investment/uk-landed-record-foreign-investment-in-year-of-brexit-vote-idUKKBN1DV4EI

            Wood Mackenzie are an Oil & Energy Consultancy and I can’t find any reference to this research on their website or Google.. So you better provide a link

            I’m also woke because I can see the potential for the future, We are world leaders in Hi Tech and Digital , EU nah, not in the game even

            hans your business credibility plummets by the day. I think you need to get off here and try to come to terms with dealing with the reality of Brexit

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

      Or I suppose the CER could have looked at how the UK itself had performed in the years before the referendum, rather than trying to create a synthetic model.

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/24/the-bank-of-england-wants-to-slow-the-uk-economy-some-more/#comment-942553

      We had that kind of nonsense before from somebody who thought the UK could be treated as a combination of 91% New Zealand and 9% Argentina.

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2015/06/06/lets-have-an-eu-exit-tax-cut/#comment-769785

      In the past two years we have had about 3.5% GDP growth; on the long term trend growth rate since 1955 it should have been 5.0% – and the geniuses at the FT think that it would have been, if only we had voted to stay in the EU – but following the medium term trend which had been running since late 2014 it would be not far off that 3.5%, maybe a little higher or lower but most unlikely to be 2.1% lower.

      What makes me sick is that we have a government which claims that its official policy is one of withdrawal from the EU but which does nothing to defend that official policy from constant fake news, black propaganda, attacks.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 26, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

        Dennis,

        that was exactly what they did they looked at 20 years before the referendum for the UK as well

    • Edward2
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

      More Project Fear from a pro EU body.
      All computer modelled into what might have beens.
      Yet turned into facts by remainers.

  12. Lifelogic
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Is Jeremy Hunt ever going to do anything about the dire NHS that is killing so many people every single day? Perhaps 10,000 PA or so each year. Or is he just going to continue to endlessly apologise for it all (which he does quite well lots of practice I assume). But we need action from the man. Whistle blowers still persecuted all over the place to prevent the dire truth about the NHS from fully escaping.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink

      On Marr this morning Hunt seemed to think that the Brexit vote was a mandate for more money for the NHS! No it was a mandate to leave the EU and get a real Brexit that looks like it will not be delivered.

      The NHS was not on the ballot paper at all just a suggestion on a bus (actually a coach “let’s spend it on the NHS instead”) by just one of the leave organisations.

      The way to get more money into health care is to charge fees to those who can pay and encourage far more to go privately with sensible tax breaks. Then tackle the appalling mess, gross waste and gross negligence that goes on in the death causing, overpaid, management heavy, racket (and often a death factory) that is the NHS.

      • Andy
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:12 am | Permalink

        The NHS was on the ballot paper. They wrote it on the bus. Brexit meant £350m a week to the NHS.

        The government is simply having to follow through on the Brexiteers lies.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

          Andy

          You seriously think the ballot paper was written on the side of a bus…. Lol

          You’re a wag… you really are. The NHS is under enormous pressure with the outbreak of a new and potentially fatal virus. BDS

        • Anonymous
          Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

          The biggest lie in history being that the Common Market was a trade area.

          Boomers now know better.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted June 25, 2018 at 4:47 am | Permalink

          That is not what it said. It said “We send the EU 250 million per week, lets fund our NHS instead”. It was a coach and not a ballot paper and a suggestion not a promise. Anyway the remainers are still in control.

          Did not Cameron promise/lie that he would issue the section 50 notice two years ago today. Had he done so we would now be out.

          Instead, in a gross abdication of his duty as PM, he fail to prepare for a Brexit outcome and just abandoned ship. A man as pathetic as John Major but without the excuse of vacuity.

      • Dennis
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

        Lifelogic – “management heavy”? I heard on Any Answers, I think, that it is the reverse an managers are overworked too much which is causing the chaos. Of course JR knows nothing of this as there is no comment from him.

    • Richard1
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

      No he isn’t. The Govt have decided to go down the road of virtue signalling by announcing more and more money for the NHS, but with no condition of improvement or reform. Labours response is to say they will spend whatever the Conservatives promise and more. So the extra money will go mostly, as in other periods of spending splurge (such as under Labour), on higher pay and more money to suppliers at rip off prices, whether for bog rolls or consultants. Unfortunately it will have to get a lot worse before radical change makes it better.

    • a-tracy
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

      My friends Mum, with a perforated bowel was left for four hours 16;15 Thursday, 15 minutes from the hospital, her blood pressure was so low by the time she got seen there was nothing they could do for her. In pain and fear for the last 6 hours of her life.

  13. BartD
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    The BoE will do as the BoE does.. can’t really blame them if their policies are a little out of tune from populist expectations..they are the watchdogs afterall and trying to do the best for the country in a disconnected fake news world with so much uncertainty about..Carney’s contract is up next year when he will return to Canada I expect so we cannot say that he has some personal gain for doing as he does.

    The question is why JR does not put his own name forward for this job as governor..he has the political connections in parliament and the experience in financial matters?

    • old salt
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:52 am | Permalink

      Do I remember BoE Carney is an Osborne appointment late 2012 taking the position mid 2013, when the Bank was given additional powers, carrying out a brief by our Government.
      On that basis it might be assumed his actions are the intent of the Government.

  14. Mark B
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    Whilst I and others here disagreed with our kind hosts position on the initial actions of the Bow, on this I am in agreement with him. If there has been some slowing in the areas highlied, why inflict more measures ?

    . . .  its Living Wage policy. It is to be hoped that low end wages will rise a bit more as employers compete for labour. It is also  be hoped that firms invest a bit more so the people they employ can be more productive, earn higher wages, and see machines do more of the routine work.

    Our kind host points out that one of the key reasons for the proposed increase in interest rates is high wage inflation. He points out that government policies, such the Living Wage, have contributed to this. It is high time that government realises that, one man’s wage rise is another man’s price increase, and that price increase usually hits the poorest the hardest.

    Another effect of wage increase, and once again our kind host highlights this above, is that employers usually look to mechanization as a means to reduce costs. In the retail industry we can already see this in the horrible self checkouts and ordering systems.

    By linking BREXIT with trade some Leavers have boxed themselves and the rest of us into a corner. It has allowed Remainers to dictate terms and have caused enormous damage to what could have been the greatest decision the British people have ever made. But a small but powerful so called elite were determined to hang onto their EU junkets.

    We will rue the day.

    • Mark B
      Posted June 26, 2018 at 5:44 am | Permalink

      You obviously did not like my last paragraph. Too close to the truth me thinks 😉

  15. formula57
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    A well-led Ministry for post-Brexit planning could prepare all the measures we can take once free of the Evil Empire, including to boost the economy, and might overcome a good part of the damage done by the present Bank and the Business Department.

  16. Rien Huizer
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    Stability and speed are not always compatible. The BoE’s priority is a rate of monetary expansion commensurate with low inflation plus macroeconomic stability. Growth (not meaning cyclical upswings) will have to occur within a sound monetary framework. I suspect that you are confusing a cyclical upswing (as occurred rather quickly in the UK and US and much slower in Japan and the UK, with growth. Growth is a long term phenomenon, closely related to groeth in factors of production: labour force, the stock of investment and accumulated total factor productivity. The UK’s dependence on services and imported labour during the past 20 years make it harder to achieve fast trend growth than it would be for a country with a large industrial sector, such as Germany or China. Imo (and that of the Bank, UK trend growth will struccke to exceed 1.5% pa. Of course cyclical year-on-year variations can be much greater, in both directions.

    What you are advocating is to provide cyclical stimulus via monetary policy at a time when factor utilisation is very high. No expert on minetary policy would recommend that of course, especially with the prospect of a unique shock (hard brexit) either happening or not at all, or something in between. For central bankers, caution is a virtue.

  17. Peter
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Meanwhile ‘No deal, no cash’ article ramps up the volume for genuine Brexit.

    I note Mr. Redwood is one of the signatories. Economists for Free Trade. Good stuff.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/978694/brexit-news-second-anniversary-britain-theresa-may

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:44 pm | Permalink

      No deal no cash would also mean no pension for poor mr Farage, unless he takes up the German citizenship he is eligible for..

      • Edward2
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

        Not true.
        MEPs get a pension based on the number of years they serve.
        His pension must be huge if the UK needs to pay 39 billion just for him.

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

        Millions will be prepared to crowd fund him.

        • Anonymous
          Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

          BTW – he should have a seat in the Lords by now on £300 a day, unlike most of the EU supporting placemen there.

          • hefner
            Posted June 26, 2018 at 7:06 am | Permalink

            He is “rumoured” to seek a seat with the DUP once Brexit is finally done and dusted.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 7:54 am | Permalink

        Where in the MEP pension scheme does it say that?

        Or is it something that the EU would just make up?

      • NickC
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 10:09 am | Permalink

        Rien, False even if the EU abrogates the Vienna Convention. Is that what you’re proposing? Or do you think the EU can just make up whatever rules it wants to suit your bile?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

      I do not expect many of these economists will make it on to the BBC or channel 4. More likely to see totally misguided people like Mariana Mazzucato from UCL!

      https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

      I cannot understand why anybody would want to sign up to a bad deal. Surely any sensible government would walk away? Hold on though, how many have any sense at all?

  18. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    JR, I happened across this article:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/the2008recession10yearson/2018-04-30

    “The 2008 recession 10 years on”

    Without wanting to trouble anybody to click on an internet link and get bogged down in boring facts, real evidence, when it is so much easier to mindlessly accept the fake news made up by the Remoaners and gleefully retailed by the pro-EU mass media, there is a nice, simple chart there in a section headed:

    “This is what a recession looks like”

    and I can tell you:

    a) What has happened over the past two years looks nothing like the kind of recession that the Treasury predicted would immediately follow on a vote to leave the EU; and

    b) What has happened over the past two years does not depart much, if at all, from what might have been expected to happen just from continuing the pre-existing trend.

  19. Mile High Club
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    “EU and UK negotiators brokered an agreement on citizens’ rights in December, which guaranteed the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and UK nationals living in EU Member States.

    However, the UK’s offer will have to be ratified by MEPs and is likely to fall short of the European Parliament’s demands. On Wednesday, Guy Verhofstadt, who leads the Parliament’s Brexit Steering Group, argued that the process should be free.

    “Why should EU citizens be financially punished for the Brexit referendum outcome?” he asked.”
    That Dutch Guy, Verhofstadt, should stick a finger in it. If you wish to join a club it is only right you pay a membership fee.~~~~Barnier the Tick–Tock man
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/pay-65-to-stay-uk-tells-its-eu-residents/

    • M.W.Browne
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:32 am | Permalink

      Verhofstadt is Beligian.

      • libertarian
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

        Yeh but Belgium isn’t really a country is it, he’s Flemish, so ethnically he is Dutch really

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted June 25, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

          rubbish it is like your analysis of the Nordics and their politics which you do not understand either

      • Mile High Club
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

        Stop ruining my jokes. I needed him to be Dutch.

        • libertarian
          Posted June 27, 2018 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

          MHC

          Sorry, I had to explain the joke to one of the cerebrally challenged

  20. Anonymous
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    I agree with such credit restrictions. What I disagree with is that the blame is being put on Brexit.

    We never really sorted things out after the .Com crisis.

    Since then we’ve been running a Ponzi economy based on cramming workers (and non workers) into vital areas causing property inflation – then comes the spending based on homeowner equity. Magic Money Tree.

    Sir Oliver wants the property crisis treated like a war – well the first thing to do is seal the borders then. We’d better hope he’s not successful, however, it will crash the economy if house prices normalise.

    (If it’s a housing crisis why then is everything else in crisis too ? Why are there no extra roads and facilities for the new estates built in this vicinity ?)

  21. Anonymous
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    Sorry to go off topic but something happened or, rather, didn’t happen yesterday.

    A mass pro EU turnout in convincing numbers.

    I can’t get the figures but it seems only a few thousand turned out in the pro EU march. One would have thought that this turnout would have been much higher in the Remain capital of Britain (London) where the march was reachable in a short and affordable tube trip.

    There ought to have been at least one million. I would expect that Andy and Newmania were there and could tell us.

    The Countryside Alliance at least managed over 400,000 (most of them travelling far) yet were still ignored.

    Clearly this clamour for a reversal among the public is a figment of Andy’s fevered imagination.

    From my own unscientific poll the vast majority want Brexit done and Brexit done with conviction – not this dithering mess that the May-ists have brought us.

    • libertarian
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:17 am | Permalink

      A

      You are correct all the recent polls conducted by You gov still show a majority of 53% in favour of getting on with Brexit

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

        Actually the lastest You Gov shows 45% thinking it was wrong to leave and 42% thinking it is right to leave.

        So, it depends on what statistics you look at and how it is interepreted.

        Would suggest you show your source next time

        • libertarian
          Posted June 27, 2018 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

          hans

          Ha says the man thats never linked to a fact in any post ever

          We asked Britons which of four different routes they would prefer the Brexit process take. Four in ten (40%) wanted to continue with Brexit on current negotiating terms, whilst 12% wanted Britain to seek a “softer” Brexit – meaning a “go ahead” majority of 52%.

          Just 18% wanted a second referendum and a further 14% wanted Brexit abandoned completely, a total of 32% for an “attempt to reverse” Brexit. The remaining 16% said they didn’t know.

          You Gov Website ( look it up yourself)

          ORB Mar 2018 Remain 44% Leave 49%

          Comres

          Remainers beware: people who think Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU do not necessarily think the referendum result should be reversed

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:24 am | Permalink

      I recall going on a smaller, but still respectably large, Democracy Movement march and rally calling for a referendum on the Nice Treaty which attracted virtually zero media coverage … I wonder how many of those calling for a repeat referendum on EU membership care about the people not having had even one referendum on that and four other EU amending treaties*, but then some of them may not have been alive in November 2000. Our host was alive, and he was one of the speakers.

      * Single European Act, Maastricht Treaty, Amsterdam Treaty, Lisbon Treaty.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

      Two girls on the march who hadn’t got quite the right idea:

      “What do we want?
      A People’s Vote!
      When do we want it?
      Now!”

  22. Ian wragg
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    The majority of politicians are economically and technically illiterates. Hence the dash for electric cars which are totally unsuitable for all but the shortest of journeys. Windmills that provides intermittent power and now a CO2 shortage as we have shut down much of our industrial base.
    Now we have the hapless May downgrading our armed forces and trying to keep us in the Single Market for goods.
    You really have a death wish.

    • old salt
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:39 am | Permalink

      Ian
      Some are not aware of the distinct difference between totally electric, with the necessary heavy batteries with their associated equipment, and hybrid cars.

      Hybrids need no outside charging and can treble the mpg of petrol cars and are very popular here with many people selling their german gas guzzlers. Very co2 friendly with no exhaust fumes at junctions, multi level car parks, traffic lights and slow traffic etc. areas where there is high fuel consumption.

      This has to be the way until batteries and charging is sorted. One way to overcome distance would be to have standardised battery swop charging stations as you would fill up with fuel, swop batteries.

    • bigneil
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:44 am | Permalink

      Ian, Pulling in for a petrol/diesel fill-up now can be done in 5 minutes, 10 if there are vehicles at every pump. With electric vehicles taking over an hour for a charge ? Chaos. A recent test of one showed it needed recharging after about 100 miles, which was in daylight on a warm day. No lights on, no heater on. Imagine a drive to Heathrow and back from our area, on a cold winter’s day.
      As for Armed forces? wait until TM hands the use of our multi-billion pound Stealth VTOL Harrier replacements to the EU. WE pay, the EU uses.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

      Indeed economic and technical illiterates indeed. Lots with law, PPE or geography degrees. People who are happy to say almost anything at elections to get elected. Idiotic priorities like upskirting, gender pay reporting, work place pensions, endless red tape, absurd taxes and forcing calorie figures on to restaurants and fish and chip shops! Will they have to weigh all the portions and count the chips?

      Very few honest and sound scientists, engineers, business people, mathematicians, doctors & physicists who might actually have sound policies & run things properly.

      Abandon ship serial liars like Cameron and Osborne in the main.

  23. Derek Henry
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    * For every £ borrowed there is a £ saved *

  24. Derek Henry
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    John, I wish you would have replied to my Budget deficit examples like you normally do instead of not posting them at all 🙁

    If I’m wrong I’m sure you would be quick to point out where I was wrong. I’ll try again.

    The commercial banks can create ‘money’ (liquidity) by creating loans (credit). But they cannot create new net financial assets because the asset (loan) is offset within the non-government sector by the liability (debtor).

    Only transactions between the government and non-government sector can create or destroy net financial assets.

    The government is also the monopoly issuer of the currency (notes and coins). The commercial banks can get access to that and distribute it (vault cash) but only by sacrificing bank reserves held at the central bank.

    It’s simple…

    Government spending is the creation of the £ and taxes are the destruction of the £.

    Say everyone gets £1,000 per month for their work. As shown above it does not come from anywhere else other than HM Treasury.

    The pay their 10% tax and then buy a new TV with their £900, The supplier of the TV pays their tax then buys his wife a new dress with his £810, the dress maker pays their tax then buys her husband a new watch with her £729, the watch maker pays their tax then buys a new window for his shop with his £656, the window maker pays their tax then buys a new garden shed with his £591, the shed maker then buys a new fish pond with his £532, the fish pond maker then buys some carp with his £479, the carp breeder then buys his daughter a pair of ear rings with her £432, the ear ring maker then buys a holiday with her £389, the holiday providor then treats themself to a hand bag with her £351, the handbag maker then buys a month shopping with her £316, the shop keeper buys some new stock with his £285, the wholesaler buys his wife a pair of shoes with his £257, the shoe maker then buys a nice coat with her £232, the coatmaker buys a meal at a resteraunt for his sons graduation with his £209, the resteraunt owner buys a new set of pans with his £189, the pan maker buys a new set of tyres for his car with his £170, the tyre maker buys a new sign for his shop with his £153, the sign maker buys a wedding cake for his daughter with her £138, the cake maker buys some advertising for £125, the advetiser buys a carpet for £113, the carpet maker buys some paint for decorating for £102, the paint maker buys some oils for £91, the oil maker buys a new door bell for £82, the doorbell maker takes his family to the cinema for £74, the cinema owner buys some pet food for £68, the petfood maker buys etc, etc,etc,etc..

    (Rough figures) above for a 10% positive tax rate. The higher the tax rate the quicker it returns to the overnight interbank market. The smaller the tax rate the slower it returns to the overnight interbank market where it is destroyed.

    As long as everyone spends all of their income the original £1,000 created from thin air by the government is cancelled out like a tally stick on the government accounts. As the commercial banks net their reserves to zero so that the BOE can hit its overnight interest rate.

    The tally stick is balanced they created £1,000 and cancelled £1,000.

    SO lets change the rules and now everybody in the spending chain are allowed to SAVE ! and the government is allowed to create a private sector surplus.

    The supplier of the TV saves £50

    The coatmaker saves £100

    The handbag maker saves £50

    The wedding cake maker saves £100

    The government has now created £1,000 but only cancelled £700. The budget deficit = £300

    The accounting fact is the budget deficit £300 = the private sector savings £300 to the penny. the government deficit is the private sector surplus.

    The budget deficit is just government spending that has not been taxed yet ( spent by us) as it has been SAVED by the private sector instead.

    The national debt are just those savings moved into gilts. As in when we change our savings into pensions etc, etc.

    So the government borrows £300 to balance the books. How it does that is say to the The supplier of the TV, The coatmaker, The handbag maker and The wedding cake maker give us your savings and we will give you interest on your savings.

    And the commercial banks do that for them as you can see from the offers they have in their windows. Or the private sector can go to the government themselves via NS&I

    So the real kicker and smoke and mirror con trick is that the government is just borrowing back money it has alreay spent when it deficit spent earlier. It borrows back the £’s it has already created. That’s how the private sector gets their hands on the £’s needed to buy the gilts which are only sold in £’s.

    Please feel free to point out where I’m wrong to encourage debate.

    • bigneil
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 11:58 am | Permalink

      I found it interesting that you chose a TV as the first example. When Digital tv was forced on us, ANYONE who wanted to carry on watching had NO choice but to buy a a new tv ( or a few bought an adapter ). The govt got VAT on EVERY sale. Plus, didn’t they “sell” the old airwaves. Enforced robbery of the public by the govt. Wonder how much they got away with?

      • Derek Henry
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

        VAT is just another tax and as you can see clearly from the example. VAT and taxes do not fund government spending.

        Both VAT and TAXES take our spending power away and thus are used to control inflation. They both create unemployment if they are too high.

        Government spending is a reserve add.

        Taxes VAT and the selling of gilts are a reserve drain.

        It is impossible to carry out a reserve drain the collection of VAT and taxes etc. Unless the reserves have been added to first by government spending.

        Governments spend first and collect taxes later. Otherwise people will not have the £’s that then allows them to pay their taxes or pay their VAT or buy gilts.

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

      This looks like an ineligible comment as per the JR rules. In addition, I recommend reading an introductory economics textbook.

      • Derek Henry
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

        No thanks.

        introductory economics textbook

        1) Does not even recognise money creation which is like talking about the rain cycle and missing out the parcipitation part.

        2) All based as if we still use the gold standard and fixed exchange rates.

    • Edward2
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

      The fact some things balance does not prove correlation.
      Everything on a balance sheet balances.

      • Derek Henry
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 11:58 am | Permalink

        Yes it does Edward.

        • Edward2
          Posted June 26, 2018 at 7:30 am | Permalink

          Thats ridiculous.
          Not everything that balances is in perfect causation nor is correlated.
          And the opposite applies.
          You are in thrall to a very odd economist.

      • Derek Henry
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

        Unless of course you believe the surplus created by the budget deficit ends up on Mars or Jupiter.

        • Edward2
          Posted June 26, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

          You are back to your strange theory again.
          You think there is a surplus created by a deficit.
          I must try that in my personal life by borrowing millions (ie creating money) to create for myself a big surplus.
          I could get rich.

    • rick hamilton
      Posted June 25, 2018 at 2:52 am | Permalink

      As an engineer by training and long term international trader I find this sort of accounting analysis completely missing the point. Government is generating huge sums out of nowhere by QE and lending money to itself. Much of it spent on bribing the electorate with their own money to re-elect the same gang of orators, dreamers and financial sorcerers.

      Of course the books balance but this doesn’t take away the basic fallacy, which is that you can’t generate real wealth without creating something which adds value. Manufacturing is the best example because you start with a pile of raw materials and end up with something useful, like a car. That’s how these growth economies like China and originally Korea and Japan did it and they continue to make things competitively and have no intention of stopping. The UK has almost given up trying to compete in the world with home-grown and home-financed manufacturing.

      It would take volumes to explain why the (mostly non-scientific and non-technically trained) politicians stood idly by for decades while our industries closed down or were sold off to foreign ownership. It hasn’t happened to this serious degree in any other major economy and none of them believe you can live on financial services instead.

      I can only see one possible long term outcome to massive doses of QE and importing too many manufactured goods, and that is the endless devaluation of the pound. When I first visited Japan in 1974 the pound would buy 740 yen. It now buys 146 yen. Maybe you financial and accounting boffins would like to explain what’s clever or successful about that.

  25. anon
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Maybe the BOE is worried about leverage and the likely worldwide move to higher interest rates in a $ world.

    We can do lots of things once we fully exit the EU with no restrictions on tax policy and laws. ( As long as we have not been signed up to clearly bad deals and onerous contracts by our remainer fanatics)

    – e.g. Combining NI/PAYE and a higher PA’s.

    Buy to let should be allowed interest relief only in the new build sector.

    Productivity will increase when the unlimited tap of unskilled (tax &benefit) subsidised labour is reduced.

    We can infrastructure spend on smart passive charging roads and a recharging network. Only parts of the main Motorways would need it say 25 miles out of every 100 or so.

    We can stop buying tube carriages at £1.5bn for 94 16million each etc.
    (Use the old ones) and help car, bus and hybrid manufacturers and power industry re-tool for the electric future.

    We can talk to EU/ Airbus and other manufacturers willing to take on the plants of course once we are out of the EU. Otherwise this is where transition money is needed not for some EU politicians vague promise or treaty which they likely will not honour.

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

      The reasoning behind BoE policy is publicly available and transparent. It was once very different, but now it follows best international practice. Of course there is room for debate and that is covered by the institiutional structure including an MPC, rather than a technocratic dictator. But CB policy must be credible and that means conforming to certain rules, inde[pendent of rthe government of the day or members’ political preferences. The alternative is unnecessary speculation and damage to the country’s international reputation, not something a country with persistent twin deficits can afford.

  26. Drachma
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    Moderation in all things is the key..if the BoE is in this modevtjen that is good enough for me

  27. Tad Davison
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Does anyone trust the inept and incompetent Tories anymore, who clearly couldn’t run a drinking session in a brewery?

    Does anyone really trust ANY Westminster politicians anymore?

    Does anyone really trust their lordships anymore?

    Does anyone really trust civil servants anymore?

    Personally, I think we need a whole new type of person to run the country and its institutions because the ones presently in places of power and influence have completely lost it.

    Oh for strong and decisive leadership!

    Tad Davison

    Cambridge

  28. Ed Mahony
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    The Referendum was just a battle, i think. The war could go on for 40+ years.

    Why not end the war now by trying to reform the EU by returning it to the non-political EEC? Big economic and, in particular, global-political benefits for everyone (peace / security of Europe). Vast majority of the people in the UK would support this. As, no doubt, most people in Europe.

    Just requires direction, will and strategy. Whoever pulled it off, would be a hero. But no-one’s going to be a hero with Brexit / Remain, i think.

    • Ed Mahony
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:38 am | Permalink

      ‘Why not end the war now by trying to reform the EU by returning it to the non-political EEC?’

      – Above all, business would support this (and Parliament gets back its sovereignty – everyone’s a winner, and the chances of war breaking out in Europe in the future are greatly reduced).

      • Ed Mahony
        Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

        (and we get back control of our borders – surely returning to non-political EEC is best solution – quietly confident historians will be saying this in 50 years time)

    • Mitchel
      Posted June 25, 2018 at 9:40 am | Permalink

      Attempts to re-unite the western provinces of the Roman Empire(and ultimately attack those in the East) have been going on since Charlemagne,approved by your blessed Pope,in the ninth century-and the one thing they haven’t brought is peace.

      PS there never was a non-political EEC.

      • Ed Mahony
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

        ‘look at how Catholic doctrine has changed’

        – hasn’t changed.

      • Ed Mahony
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

        Lastly, the Catholic Church is a broad Church.

        – Catholics who are ultra Conservative / Traditionalist. Conservatives with a big C.
        – Catholics who are Conservative with a small c. Like me.
        – Liberal-leaning Catholics.
        – Left-wing Catholics.

        And the same applies not just for the laity but for the clergy as well including Popes over the centuries.

        So i just think you’re generalising about Catholics (like saying ALL English people are socialists, or ALL liberals, or ALL Conservatives with a small c or with a big C – clearly wrong to assert this).

      • Ed Mahony
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

        @Mitchell,

        I’m a strong supporter of much of what Protestants were calling for during the Reformation regarding stopping corruption of the Church and some of the bishops and Popes acting like secular Princes of the Church.

        There is nothing in Catholic doctrine that gives bishops and Popes this secular power. It was an abuse of power and corruption and so actually anti Catholic! Where i disagree with Protestants is over doctrine (and even Protestants themselves disagree with themselves now to the point there are now 33,000 different Protestant denominations – and traditional Anglicans would see themselves much closer to Roman Catholicism than most of these other denominations).

        Best wishes.

      • Fake Roman News
        Posted June 25, 2018 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

        Estimates are there were only 25,000 people living in London in 1066. Most of them ethnic Saxons. Many got killed or fled three months after the Normans hacked their way through thick undergrowth and managed to find their way there along sodden and smelly wild boar tracks.
        Heaven knows how many Roman soldiers could have been anywhere here or in Europe or elsewhere a thousand years before that.
        Rome must have been much bigger then than now.

        • Mitchel
          Posted June 26, 2018 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

          Actually the population of Rome is thought to have fallen to under 1,000 as a result of the Gothic Wars/Byzantine re-conquest.It took more than a thousand years for the population number to recover.

  29. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    Off-topic, this morning I almost fell off my chair laughing when Jeremy Hunt told Andrew Marr that Theresa May “has the instincts of a Brexiteer”. Well, she certainly kept that well hidden from her constituents, including myself, for 19 years, until after the referendum had regrettably gone the wrong way … there were indeed a few Tory MPs who had either slipped through the CCHQ filters, or who had genuinely changed their minds about the EU after they had already been pre-selected and selected as official Tory candidates and got themselves elected, who truly did have that kind of instincts but felt constrained about going public with them, but Theresa May was not one of them.

  30. ian
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    Just tell the banks to cut 20% of the amount money they are loaning out outside of the UK.

    Then cut the amount of money loaned out for financial markets and housing by 10% and earmark it for businesses, and use the levied money they pay only for new technical and vocational skills training,
    This is Brexit brother and sisters if do not direct the banks and the bankers to which direction you want them to take, then there is no point in Brexit.
    You need working people and business people voted into parliament with new ideas to get the country moving in the right direction, only you the voters can do that, like keep telling you, if you vote for parties you won’t be going anywhere but back to the stone age.

  31. Blue and Gold
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    As usual with Mr.Redwood, if you do not go agree with his Right wing views, the contributor’s contribution is sensored. Running scared of the argument, knowing that the opinion polls are showing more voters in favour of remaining in the EU than leaving, now that the consequences of leaving are becoming very clear.

    Like the other elites in the Brexit camp, he only wants the alleged positives of Brexit heard.

    You will not silence us Mr. Redwood, our voices are being heard.

    • Edward2
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

      You are always on here with your pro EU views.
      Together with a few others.

      Try getting a pro leave comment posted on the many pro remain sites…..almost impossible.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

      Please tell us about these consequences of leaving the EU.

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

      Temper temper.

      Do you have any idea how many of my comments do not appear ???

      Obviously not.

    • APL
      Posted June 27, 2018 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

      Blue and Gold: “if you do not go agree with his Right wing views, the contributor’s contribution is sensored”

      There is two things you need to understand about Redwood’s blog.

      1. It’s a platform for putting forward his idea’s.

      2. Some of us, amazingly, are further to the ‘right’ than Redwood. And indictment of the modern Tory party, and our opinions frequently remain unpublished.

  32. Helen Smith
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    You might well ask why all industry kept so quiet during the last GE when Labour proposed upping Corp Tax by 50%. Was it because they saw Labour as a party of Remain?

  33. A different Simon
    Posted June 24, 2018 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood ,

    Do you really think that lending 4.5X gross dual income for houses is not enough ?

    If they are losing 20% to income tax and N.I. they are trying to borrow 5.625X dual take home .

    It is a disgrace that HM Govt has helped the banks puff up location values to such levels yet you seem to want to expand credit to keep the housing ponzi going .

    MP’s are meant to be representing the people , not the banks .

  34. ian
    Posted June 25, 2018 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    Hire in the leader of China and he will show you how to handle them, bankers. China will be number one soon. how did they do it from standing start 30 years ago?.

  35. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted June 25, 2018 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    A question that I’ve asked before but which is worth repeating:

    Why is a nominally Conservative Chancellor restricting credit for particular purchases (motor cars) rather than raising base rate and letting the markets impose credit restrictions?

  36. libertarian
    Posted June 25, 2018 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Blue & Gold

    Try expressing a different view to the EU , try arguing that some of the EU regulations and directives are nuts and will do untold damage to business. Oh you can’t because the EU doesn’t even have a forum for discussion and forbids dissent

    Try putting free market views on a Left wing forum and see how long you last

    Stop whining, if you dont like this forum, start your own.

  37. hans christian ivers
    Posted June 25, 2018 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    Libertarian,

    As eh old professor you are now out of the lecture hall and you really need to adapt to the audience and trying to tell us that the EU forbids dissent reminds me of Erdogan saying that Turkey is a democracy all fake news.

    Stay with the facts and gives us the sources instead of your own subejctive conclusions

    • Edward2
      Posted June 26, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

      You miss the point Hans.
      Blue and Gold was complaining his pro EU posts were being censored on here.
      Libertarian and I pointed out that :-
      a) his posts are on here every day
      b) on pro EU sites the chances of getting an anti EU/Leave post published are slim.

      • libertarian
        Posted June 30, 2018 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

        hans always misses the point, it the only way he can “win” an argument

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

  • John’s Books

  • Email Alerts

    You can sign up to receive John's blog posts by e-mail by entering your e-mail address in the box below.

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    The e-mail service is powered by Google's FeedBurner service. Your information is not shared.

  • Map of Visitors

    Locations of visitors to this page