The one good thing to come out of the Chequers meeting was confirmation that the government will speed and complete its preparations for leaving the EU without a deal. The government says it Ā does not want to have to do that, but it needs to do it in case that it is the outcome to the slow and unhelpful talks. It is also important to put some weight behind the UK’s bargaining position.Ā Only if the government is prepared to exercise the No DealĀ option does the UK have clout. We should expect to see and hear more of the successful preparations in the days ahead.
No Deal delivers most of what Brexit voters want. It means we leave the EU on 29 March 2019 as promised. We leave without paying any extra money to the EU as a leaving present. We regain control of our laws, our borders and our trade policy. The only thing it does not give us is a free trade deal with the EU.Ā I suspect if we look as if we mean to leave without a deal the EU would want to extend its current offer of a free trade deal for Great Britain into an offer for the UK, as we will of course not accept one which leaves out Northern Ireland.
TheĀ biggest win from no deal is the opportunity to spend Ā£39 billion at home on our own priorities that we would otherwise give away to the EU. Ā£39 billion spent at home would beĀ a big Ā boost of 2% of GDP. It would cut our balance of payments deficit by the same amount. Depending on the mixture of tax cuts and extra spending we chose, there wouldĀ be additional gains from the stimulus effect of the money. The right tax cuts could power faster growth and more business success. Well deployed spending on education and training could help more people into better paid jobs.
We should also use all the Ā£13bn we colect in tariffs on EU imports to give as tax cuts to UK consuners so we are no worse off from the tariffs. Doubtless we will also buy more UK goods when EU ones are dearer so we will be better off.
The next win from just leaving will be the right to control our own borders and settle our own migration policy. I expect the government toĀ make it easy for tourists, students, investors and people with good qualifications to come to the UK.Ā What the public wants is a decent control on people coming to the UK to take low paid employment, when we need to up the wages and recruit more local people to do the jobs, whilst investing in labour saving automation where the jobs are unattractive. We need to alleviate some of the stresses on housing and infrastructure which high migration rates in recent years have exacerbated. We want a fair policy, which does not give priority to people from continental countries over people from the Commonwealth.
The third win will be in global trade. Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Canada and the USA are keen to sign trade deals with us. We could join the Trans Pacific Partnership. To do such deals we need to be free to make our own calls on regulation, tariffs and non tariff barriers. Through our membership of the WTO we can create relatively friction free trade, as we enjoy today on non EU trade, with the added advantages that trade deals can bring.
The fourth and biggest win of all is we will re establish our home democracy. Our laws will be made in the UK, and can be repealed or improved by Parliaments we elect and influence. The UK will regain her vote and voice in a number of world bodies, including the World Trade Organisation and various standards bodies, so we can have direct influence on world regulation.
Any deal worth accepting has to be better than this.Ā It would need to be aĀ very good offer indeed to be worthwhile paying them Ā£39bn more.
July 11, 2018
All very important Mr Redwood, but more importantly Mr Redwood at PMQās today will you be asking Mrs May will it be her good self or HRH Prince William representing England in Russia tonight, itās coming home itās coming home itās coming footballs coming home š“ó §ó ¢ó „ó ®ó §ó æ
July 11, 2018
Mick
Why should anyone now want to represent us in Russia, what have Russia done in the last few weeks that will have changed political thoughts, that make it different from a month ago.
The only reason for anyone to go now is to try and bask themselves in the present success of the England team, and hope some of it rubs off on them.
Given the way things are going with our politics, if anyone goes they may well be a bad omen for England.
Just keep away, let Gareth Southgate take any plaudits and pride for his teams performance.
July 11, 2018
JR,
Remainer solicitor general Buckland on Daily Politics today admitting that all goods will be subject to the single ameket rules not just those between the EU and U.K. All goods from every country coming to the U.K. Will be subject to regulatory alignment where the U.K. has no voice or no veto. That is a vassal state that is bound to hinder any trade deal with any other country outside the EU and it is bound to make the U.K. No more competitive than the EU. Thereforeto say it is in line with her previous speeches, Lancaster speech, red lines, strap lines shows her lack of integrity. Your PM persists in lying that she has acted in good faith to the electorate. That is an absolute lie.
We read today how DDs spad states how Robbins wants a California hotel Brexit and refused DD plans! Brexit being delivered by the civil service Europe Unit! May has done nothing about the dishonest KitKat policy of theirs to hide the costs and ties to the EU. Suggest large scale clear our and sackings, starting with Robbins. What non jobs do Fox and Raab have? Compliance with Robbins remain plan?
July 11, 2018
No one should be representing England today except the team and its genuine supporters.
The government took a position to boycott and should hold firm. (It might learn something in this area).
The team is doing fine without politicians.
July 11, 2018
Keep May away, she would give them the game plan, get the team to capitulate and take away the teams boots and make them walk home, all to help France and show solidarity! How come Macron is there? Wher is that EU sodildarity?
Trump poignant remark about Merkel: Germany is reliant on Russia for energy and pays billions of dollars, yet will not stump up the two percent for NATO even though Germany has a huge, illegal under EU rules, trade surplus! Merkel not in a position to get tough with Russia so why expect the rest of world to protect Germany!
May last week gave Merkel over Ā£300 million for Merkels failed mass immigration plan EU/Turkey! May gave away Ā£80 million yesterday for the Balkans! May wants us to sell our homes for elderly care! Socialist May imposes the highest tax burden on UK citizens for forty years, higher than Labour, while she is happy to piss it down the drain on foreign causes. Germany has a huge trade surplus, Germany created the mass immigration problem, let Germany pay and sort it out! Is May really that dull?
July 11, 2018
Not May, please. Seen enough of her for one lifetime.
July 11, 2018
After a British citizen was murdered in Britain using a Russian nerve agent? None of the above will visit Russia.
July 11, 2018
I think if Her Majesty The Queen is well enough and comfortable enough, and if our team is good enough to beat Croatia, it would be lovely if She attends England versus France at the final. They need Her. We need Her
July 11, 2018
I note that Macron broke EU ranks and saw his national tema beat Belgium.
Prince William should already be on a plane.
July 11, 2018
The King of the Belgians,King of Spain,assorted Saudi,Qatari,Japanese royals,Presidents of Portugal and Croatia have all been there(and that’s just the ones I’ve noticed).
And get used to it,as Eurasia integrates ,it won’t be Berlin or Brussels,nor probably Beijing (and certainly not London) but Moscow that will be at the centre of it(all roads lead to the third Rome!).
July 11, 2018
JR, you are intelligent. But you must know the treacherous actions of Grieve against your party and govt were to stop the no deal dead. Grieve made a veiled threat to collapse the govt and heralded a hero by Soubry. They voted with Labour. Two days ago May wanted to scare two hundred of you that by ousting her you might get Corbyn. That was what Grieve threatened but was okay by her!
Unless you oust May the U.K. Will be a vassal state to the EU, the dishonest civil service has already been caught with May’s KitKat policy to Hide true costs and ties with the EU. The alleged parliament block is a sham. 73 percent of MPs voted remain. Parliament is openly speaking to defy the public vote to leave the EU and has voted to do so! The last forty years has seen parliament wave through vast amounts of EU laws, directives and refs through quangos without so much of a question. The expense scandal was never rectified as promised shows the dishonesty runs through parliament and has not stopped.
Newspapers openly writing May is lying or does not understand English. She has to be ousted and the new leader given time to change people minds or your party is gone for generations. May and co will not care, they prefer Labour and be in the EU as some of them have stated. May is now cleansing Brexiteers from all important roles of state and replaced with ultr remainers. This includes SPADs according to Guido. May prevented Merkel answering a question yesterday even though she gave a copy of Her white paper before cabinet as the chance to amend alter or add to it! A foreign leader in alleged opposition to the negotiations given a copy to comment before cabinet or parliament has seen or commented about it! What does this say about her traitorous character?
JR, please comment on Gove’s white paper slipped out during these events and compare with the EU Common Fisheries Policy and tell us if this in essence mirrors the exact current position with minor changes- including excessive and disproportionate number of fishing stocks given away to the EU countries to plunder our oceans without anything in return. Another change of name/ badge but a stab in the back to the fisherman and industry of this country.
Sarah Vine (wife of backstabbing no Gove) writes an article today in the paper about these events. Perhaps she ought to reflect on her husbands backstabbing actions to Boris Johnson showed his disloyalty and lack of integrity and whether she could influence her husband to change to act as a better role model for his children let alone a mentor for other MPs in Westminster? After all his behaviour is what she is really griping about. Gove was part of Cameron’s team who promised to clean up Westminster. Collective responsibility applied then as well.
July 11, 2018
How can football be coming home? The game was invented by the Maya in Mexico so if it’s coming home then it should be going to Mexico.
Sorry to be pedantic, but that’s just the way it is…
July 11, 2018
Dioclese
Reductio ad absurdum….did you not check out the Aztecs? Do the Chinese not get a say in the matter?
Sorry to be pedantic…but were the Football Association Rules invented by the Maya?
July 11, 2018
The Chinese claim it too. As do the Greeks. And kick-ball games have been played worldwide since man first learned how to blow up a pigās bladder. But the modern rules were drawn up in 1863 in England.
Sorry to be pedantic.
July 11, 2018
Not Scottish are you?
July 11, 2018
Why would May go? Sheās the Dictator of the U.K. England doesnāt have a political leader.
July 11, 2018
Good point DaveM. May and this Tory Government deliberately ignore England’s very existence so I hope they don’t try and share in the glory should they win.
July 11, 2018
This might help explain Leadsom flip flopping.
In April 2013 at the Hansard Society’s annual parliamentary affairs lecture, Leadsom warned against the UK leaving the European Union, stating that “I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving.”
Committed leaver? I think not.
July 11, 2018
I used to be in favour of the EU. It changed.
July 11, 2018
Neither should: Russia launched a nerve-agent attack on us recently.
July 11, 2018
Well someone did, using Russian chemicals it seems. What happened to innocent until proven guilty?
July 11, 2018
According to a British Establishment that lies and lies and lies…!
July 11, 2018
No proof/evidence has been given.
zorro
July 12, 2018
Like you could trust a Tory Government!!!
July 11, 2018
The other 3 nations of the Dis-United Kingdom will be cheering on Croatia, make no mistake about that, and especially as Scotland and the North of Ireland have been stitched up over Brexit.
July 11, 2018
The other three nations could do with proper English multiculturalism. They are far too white to have qualified.
July 11, 2018
“Anyone but England” for Scotland but if anyone has been stitched up over Brexit, it’s England, who overwhelmingly did not vote for the sort of Brexit May wants to give us.
July 11, 2018
The Scots never support England. Anyone but. Pathetic as they are. They’re a bit like the EU. They like our money but nothing else.
July 11, 2018
Try living here. You hear nothing but bad things said about England. You wouldn’t dare show an English flag.
July 11, 2018
What an old misery you are.
All the people I’ve spoken to from Wales NI and Scotland recently wish the team well.
July 11, 2018
Blue & Gold
The more important question is who will you be supporting?
July 11, 2018
Also coming home will be the Brexit Dividend when we stop paying Ā£12Bn & other parts of the EU funding iceberg each year: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/20/how-much-money-do-we-save-when-we-leave-the-eu/#comment-941877
The Civitas report supporting Ā£13Bn pa tariffs to HM Treasury uses 2015 data; UK trade growth since then indicates that a higher amount would be collected in 2019.
http://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/
July 11, 2018
“the government will speed and complete its preparations for leaving the EU without a deal” good but can we trust a word this government or Theresa May says after her charade of taking back control of our money, borders and laws. I do not think the government yet understand how May’s pathetic attempt to dupe the electorate has generated such a huge volume of anger. She surely has to go as soon as possible.
July 11, 2018
The No Deal story is just a frantic last minute attempt by May to shore up her position. I don’t believe a word of it.
Its Realpolitik all the way now. Who will prevail? I take some comfort from Rees Mogg statement that if this deal does not get through parliament then we automatically go to No Deal. At least he is promising to fight against the sell out when it comes to a vote.
July 11, 2018
Barnier has said we are 80% towards a deal after Mays sellout. The other 20% is agreeing to FoM albeit under another name and the size of our annual contribution to secure the Ā£80 billion deficit.
Anyone who doesn’t think this is going to happen should be on some very strong medication. Brexit = Bremain.
July 11, 2018
She is doing it because Boris made it clear when he resigned he asked for it last November! She has followed Cameron to take little or no action for no deal. She stated in her a Mansion House capitulation that she would not walk away or resort to WTO terms. Therefore JRs blog is academic unless this comes about by EU. It will not come from May.
July 11, 2018
I’m interested in this theory: do you really think that ‘No Deal’ ie WTO will eventually be excreted from the Lower Chamber if Nature is allowed to take its course? I think JRM is being optimistic in this, because the powerful Remain lobby, backed by the BBC, Soros and his assorted euro-junkies and brainwashed youngsters will then defer Article 50 or even cancel Brexit completely. Is this a likely scenario? What do others think? And then of course, Sir Nigel Farage will be forced to return to UKIP, and the whole quest for democracy will begin again, back to square one, but a lot more bitter, and with the Conservative party fatally wounded until justice is seen to be done.
July 11, 2018
No, we can’t trust her. She has given a master-class in how NOT to negotiate. No-deal preparations should have commenced the second that DExEU was set-up; the EU, seeing this work in hand, would have then been more agreeable to a free-trade agreement that both Remainers and Leavers would be content with.
July 11, 2018
Mrs May has no Commons majority for her sell-out. She has been warned off seeking Labour support. Given her odd understanding of political forces, as well as her even odder choice of advisers, that wonāt stop her, but reality will.
Itās possible she and the EU will reach an agreement only to have it shot down by Brexiteers in the House. Theyāll be damned for evermore by Remainers, the BBC and The Guardian. Fat lot theyāll care.
I think the fog has cleared sufficiently for predictions: Put your shirt on No Deal – or WTO Deal as another contributor here quite properly calls it. Mr Hunt as next PM. No Conservative Party split.
July 11, 2018
The problem with your prediction is there is no way that the conservatives will be in power after the next GE, doubly so if Hunt or Gove became leader.
July 12, 2018
More fool people who would vote Tory after confirmation of their lies and deceit!
July 11, 2018
L/L Quite right. Hammond is already talking about fuel tax rising to pay for the NHS. They will want to tax us to the hilt and then make everyone feel poorer and think it’s the fault of Brexit.
July 11, 2018
Good morning
There will be a ‘deal’ but it will be s Maastricht type deal / performance where the PM acts tough but in truth capitulates. We cannot walk away without consequences.
As to MASS IMMIGRATION since when has TM kept her promise to reduce it ? NEVER !
I note from yesterday that our kind host accepts some continued payments to the EU. This along with his change in position regarding the EU giving the UK a FTA as part of a so called ‘deal’. I wonder if others have picked up on this ?
I maintain that we are being set up for Soft Remain. Like much else, you heatdvit here first.
July 11, 2018
Correct, its all about the money! There will be no deal unless we agree to pay into the EU coffers; that’s all Berlin/EU wants. Either we pay up, or go our own way. When will Mrs. May understand that?
July 11, 2018
The apparent aim was “Canada plus plus”
What she is proposing is “Norway minus minus”
Nobody seriously believes this headline on the Daily Express website: “Prepare for a NO DEAL Brexit: May orders ministers to step up plans for EU talks collapse”
I can only imagine Conservative MPs are being overwhelmed with emails saying ” I’ll never vote Conservative again ….”
Opinion poll from YouGov taken BEFORE the resignations:
“33% said the type of Brexit agreed at Chequers would be bad for Britain,
just 13% said it would be good”
July 11, 2018
How many times did Cameron spout “Immigration down to tens of thousands” ? Never happened. It got worse. It seems that the truth and PMs don’t exist in the same universe.
July 11, 2018
He also said he was “low tax at heartEuroskeptic”, would stay on for either referendum outcome (despite negligently not preparing for the right outcome) and would deliver the notice to leave the next day!
July 11, 2018
Good to see all the young footballers and manager rescued from the cave. But what about the 10,000 + PA killed by the NHS who could be saved far, far more easily with just simple and cheap changes to the NHS structures. Perhaps less than 1/1000 of the effort needed per life saved. Just availability of scanning staff and suitable consultants at weekends for example. and more experienced people at casualty. That and getting the financial incentives right.
All easily paid for by cutting out the vanity treatments, homeopathy and the likes, changing the structure, encouraging more to go privately and charging those who can pay something. But Jeremy Hunt preferred these deaths just to continue rolling on each day (27+ daily just in cancer) it seems.
July 11, 2018
Many UK trained Consultants retired early following pension reforms and introduction of the farce that is revalidation. Many emigrated to Anglophone countries, have experienced decent employers who value them and have no intention of returning. Many physicians from abroad have experienced NHS working conditions and have left, advising their colleagues that UK medicine standards have declined. Where are you going to find these additional specialists?
July 11, 2018
You increase the pay and improve the working conditions for them. You get more money into the system by encouraging more to go private and you start to charge those who can pay a fee. You make the hospital respond to the patients’ needs (and not those of incompetent politicians & bureaucrats).
July 11, 2018
With more new arrivals every day, there are more new patients. These tend to not be able to speak English, so take up multiple appointment times with very expensive translators. They don’t care as they are suddenly getting as much time as they want, which means there is less and less available time for us. The total patient number is growing. The number of people paying towards the NHS isn’t.
July 11, 2018
NHS crisis + housing crisis + education crisis + traffic crisis + whatever crisis
= POPULATION CRISIS
Why are we – as a nation – doing this to ourselves?
If you are a lifeboat, then try to rescue too many people and you’re no longer a lifeboat. We can’t go on like this.
July 11, 2018
Sadly Theresa May has a habit of promising one thing and doing another. The white paper tomorrow will give us more information if not clarity. The Home Secretary was very forthright on migration yesterday, but then so has TM been in the past. I cannot see how the EU can or will relent on one of its freedoms unless there is a fudge.
July 11, 2018
“Theresa May has a habit of promising one thing and doing another.” Indeed as did ERM John Major & Cast Iron Promise, “low tax a heart” call me Dave, I will stay on and issue the EU notice letter the next day, Cameron.
July 11, 2018
He was not forthright. Rudd invited all the families of EU citizens to come here at any time in their lives and has gone along with this and made it easier for students. When did they ask him where this was costed in public service provision or housing? Moreover it still proves that the U.K. Has insecure borders and when found lose them. Demonstrating May lied about secure borders when campaigning to remain in the EU.
May lost hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants when she was HS, this year Rudd was in charge where it was admitted 56,000 were lost! What has he done to find and deport them? I presume they need to live somewhere, work somewhere, get health care from somewhere and breed? Does this not lead to crime, human trafficking, sex slaves etc. Again at high cost to the taxpayer. When did they ask him about this? Did they link to his massive 5.6 percent hike in council tax for service these illegal immigrants might use? Or the massive serious crime epidemic in London?
July 11, 2018
You set out the case for No Deal very clearly. May’s suicide pact, set out in her Chequer’s statement, is not the answer. Nor will the promised White Paper be the answer unless it has miraculously changed shape by the time it is published.
I would not be surprised to learn that May has inflicted terminal damage on the Conservative party with her antics.
July 11, 2018
Oldtimer,
Correct, not the answer. Martin Howe’s (QC) appraisals of the Chequers statement is clear. Moreover simply offering the EU what it wants for goods leaves no leverage for services. The EU would need to offer more than the statement to be better than No Deal, which of course won’t happen. Suicide pact is a good description.
July 11, 2018
Indeed. Not the answer not even remotely close to it.
July 11, 2018
@Oldtimer; If europhobes want something different to what the elected government wants, two choices, force a general election and get UKIP elected (fact chance!) or force a second referenda, this time asking the How question, whilst persuading the majority to vote for the Brexit you want. Whilst I would dearly prefer a WTO exit, as a true democrat I must accept -short of the preceding- the UK will be leaving as the current elected government, or at least a majority of MPs in the UK parliament, chooses.
The only factions who appear to be hell-bent on a (political) “suicide” pact are the two extremes, those undemocratic europhiles and undemocratic europhobes who both treat the electorate with such contempt, both assuming they know why each and every one of the electorate voted the way they did.
July 11, 2018
If memory serves me correctly the two main parties supported Brexit in their election manifestos. As Andrews Gimson, who says he voted remain, points out on Conservative Home failure to deliver Brexit will only serve to persuade people that the referendum was a fraud. Once that idea takes hold the implications for politics and good order in this country do not bear thinking about.
July 11, 2018
Jerry, It is not an issue of what the electorate considered to be more or less important in making its decision. That wasn’t asked. The Referendum provided by Parliament was a binary choice only: Remain in, or Leave the EU. We chose Leave.
It is not for Parliament now to change that decision. The outcome must be for the UK to be fully out of the EU after the Art 50 process. There can be no arbitrary post-Referendum selection of alternative outcomes, such as a so-called “soft” Brexit, by politicians.
July 12, 2018
@NickC (& @oldtimer); “It is not an issue of what the electorate considered to be more or less important in making its decision. That wasnāt asked.
But we were not asked directly,, that is the problem (for the umpteenth time…), other than perhaps the LDs few are questioning that the UK will leave the EU but many do question How we leave, and because the people have not been asked the How question there is no peoples instruction to parliament and thus the decision now obviously and democratically resides with that elected parliament.
As to what many on this site want, we simply do not have enough support were it counts and that is the problem. So unless there’s a wish to take a chance and either hold another general election in the hope of getting a better mandate or a referenda that will instruct parliament we simply have to accept what the majority of MPs want – no amount of eurosceptic huffing and puffing, or even a change of party leader/PM, is going to change the parliamentary maths.
July 11, 2018
What is this 39 Billion you speak of..is this the amount agreed for the divorce settlement? or is it another 39 that has just appeared..it’s all getting very confusing now. I was under the impression that the talks that are going on at present time are all about the divorce settlement and that the talks for the future have not even started yet? also the No Deal argument with the EU will not really give us any clout because they have factored all of this in for when the time comes..the people dealing with this, both UK and EU, are fully aware that playing silly games of bluff at this time will be just that, a waste of time, and may even work against us..and as far as the Trans Pacific Partnership goes..we are a long long way from the Pacific Ocean here and havn’t even got a merchant navy worth talking about anymore..so will be completely dependent on foreign flag ships..how all of this would work out for an island nation, especially at times of regional conflict? so am not too sure about any of this..today’s diary is a bit like the little boy whistling in the dark to keep his spirits up
July 11, 2018
We would need to whistle to keep our spirits up if we all suffered from such a pessimistic outlook.
July 11, 2018
The Ā£39 billion is to settle our account on leaving the EU, including funding for ongoing projects we agreed to as a member of the EU Club. It is part of the Withdrawal Agreement that concludes Article 50. That agreement can outline a possible second and separate agreement for a future UK relationship with the EU27; AFTER the UK has left the EU28.
No Deal with a No Pay the Art 50 bill; would kiss good bye to any future relationship with the EU; and, get the UK blackballed at the WTO and the UN, I guess. Brexiteer rhetoric is coupling the paying of the Ā£39 billion, with getting a good trade deal from the EU. WTO rules expressly forbid paying for a trade deal.
July 12, 2018
Acorn, Like other Remains you seem to want to threaten and undermine the UK as we attempt to leave the EU. You clearly show where your allegiances lie. The UK does not owe the EU Ā£39bn net or anything like it. All we legally owe (as a result of Vienna) is our net contribution to the end of the MFF in Dec 2020 (about Ā£20bn) less what the the EU owes us. Or around Ā£zero.
July 11, 2018
Yes. We should NOT be offering any money simply to TALK about trade. How immoral (if not illegal) is THAT?
July 11, 2018
I think we need a very detailed paper by some person or group on no Deal and why the cliff edge either isn’t there or how we ensure we have a parachute when leaping over it. At the moment the stock response from Continuity Remain when the WTO option is discussed is simply to invoke the unknown terrors of the cliff edge – and this alone is enough for all interviewers except for Andrew Neil.
July 11, 2018
If at present an international arrangement involving the UK is predicated on our EU membership then it would create a legal hiatus if the UK left the EU without any deal having already been agreed for the permanent, or maybe only temporary, continuation of that or a similar arrangement on a new legal basis.
In the long list of synonyms for “hiatus” here:
https://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/hiatus
there are words such as “chasm” and “fracture” and “gap” and “gulf”, so it could be fair to say that we – and the EU – would go over a “cliff edge” on the subject of that arrangement, whatever it was.
Of course there would be the possibility of a quick exchange of letters agreeing to continue with the substance of the present agreement on a provisional basis, there would be several devices available if the parties were in agreement that they didn’t want to go over the cliff edge together.
We’re hearing a lot about “pragmatism” these days; well, it would be pragmatic to say for example “Do you want the planes to carry on flying even though the present legal agreement will expire next week? If so shall we just carry on for the present as if that agreement was still in force?”.
But those advocating “pragmatism” refuse to envisage that kind of reciprocal or mutual pragmatism, for them of course all the planes will be grounded the instant this or that existing regulation expires, and when they say “pragmatism” they really mean our capitulation.
July 11, 2018
Business leaders purport to know all about governing a democracy.
They say (for a few thousand jobs) we must take in millions of the EU’s poor.
The levels of mational debt show the figures don’t stack up.
July 11, 2018
National
July 11, 2018
True Richard1, followed by the anguished cry of ‘You don’t have a plan’ when the totally obvious plan IS no deal and WTO. It is perfectly obvious why P Hammond has constantly held up funding for this option.
July 11, 2018
Well said – it is time for a detailed alternative plan, supported by all serious Brexiteer politicians. I’ve had enough of hearing about ‘no deal’, ‘cliff edges’, ‘hard Brexit’, ‘hardline Brexiteers’, and ‘what’s the alternative?’, basically the control of language and image by clever Remainers…
Lots has been written by DD’s former department and also by a number of Brexit organisations … it is time that the Brexit cause was truly coordinated and focussed!
Who will do this, Jacob? (hint)
July 11, 2018
The Economists for Free Trade have produced several such reports:
https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/publication/
And the World Bank report was very supportive in the short to medium term: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/26/does-the-eu-favour-no-deal/#comment-937188
July 11, 2018
Thanks I have seen those reports. They are strong on the long term benefits of free trade but light touch on the cliff edge. What is needed is detailed discussion to address the concerns, sector by sector, with specific examples of how global supply chains work seamlessly under WTO. No doubt they do, Dyson being an excellent example. But at the moment Remain are very much on the front foot on this question. As long as thatās the case the Govt will be spineless in negotiations.
July 11, 2018
From the information about the white paper that has been released so far I cannot see how the EU will agree, they are fixated on the so-called four freedoms. So it will be no-deal in the end – we must now plan for it, as Mrs May said in the House on Monday.
Perhaps now sufficient emphasis will be placed on financial services to ensure that the City remains a global financial centre and that a high level of financial expertise remains in London.
July 11, 2018
Sakara,
No wonder people up and down the country are stomping mad about the unnecessary delays and obfuscation by the pathetic May government. We all know the EU won’t accept anything that represents an existential threat to its cherished ‘four freedoms’ and its further grasping of ever more powers towards the centre. We could have, and should have got this sorted from day one (although to be fair, the initial delay in the sending of the Article 50 letter was a shortcoming of May’s predecessor who walked away instead of doing as he had promised, but that is no excuse, it still should have been sent at the earliest opportunity and its delay is very telling).
The EU’s intransigence is the reason why so many of us think a decent trade deal that suits the UK is unachievable. Ironically, it would also be to the EU’s advantage to trade freely with us, but they have to look tough and resolute in case the other 27 countries see their weakness through the faƧade, and the whole edifice collapses around their ears. So WTO looks the best we can hope for.
Sad, but in the words of Dwight D. Eisenhower, just because one side wants peace, doesn’t make peace. The difference is pretty obvious however – Ike had guts to stand up to others and make them see he wasn’t about to let his country be put upon. What is that telling us about our own weak and totally unsuitable leadership?
Tad
July 11, 2018
Don’t worry unduly about the City. It is the biggest money spinner in the world and big money always wins. They can deal with whatever is decided. It’s the little guys that are the backbone of our country and they need to be looked after for once. For the last 43 years they have been shafted in favour of the big corporations and have done well to survive. The government need to get the big corporations to pay their taxes due and not wriggle out of it.
July 11, 2018
The Tory government has no interest in getting big corporations to pay their taxes. It is members of the Tory government and their rich friends who hold shares in such companies.
On the other hand the EU has shown a real determination to crack down on companies like Google, Apple, Facebook.
As for small companies being shafted – you do realise that if Airbus or BMW or anyone like that move any production out of the UK it is not just workers for those companies who are affected. It is the hundreds and thousands of small and medium sized businesses which supply them. Many of these small companies work primarily for one or two big multi-nationals.
By ignoring the big guys you are, quite literally, risking the survival of many of the little guys. But – guess what – graham1946 presumably tells us that you turn 72 this year so itās not your job that your Brexit is putting at risk. I hope you look your children and grandchildren in the eye and apologise to them for the mess you have made of their country. Letās hope none of them lose their jobs because of your vote.
July 12, 2018
The Single Market allows multi nationals to choose an HQ for their accounting rather than having a separate set of accounts in every country they trade in.
So one lot of profit tax is paid. (corporation tax it is called in the uk)
They generally choose Luxembourg or Ireland or some other low tax haven.
This is why big business loves the EU
Cheap labour and low or no tax.
PS
Your whole rant is based on a very big “if”.
That companies you mention will leave the UK and set up somewhere else.
It is unlikely.
Though whilst in the EU many companies relocated to China and elsewhere.
Yet here we still are with record numbers in work, good growth and low unemployment.
And hundreds of thousands of people trying to get to the UK from the EU for a better life every year.
July 12, 2018
We built this country and paid a lifetime of taxes – 50 years and still paying from our pensions. What you have now is down to our hard work. You weren’t even born when it was all being done and have paid in nothing like we have. We have paid hundreds of billions to the EU for nothing (1 percent growth it has been worked out by leading economists)., Had that money been spent here and our small firms not tied up in red tape this country would be a much better place. Back your own country for once rather than foreigners. Why not just move to your beloved EU Andy? You’d be in paradise with no complaints then, instead of moaning about how rackety this country is. Try Greece and see how your children fare there.
July 12, 2018
Andy
Do you actually know anything about business, trade or the EU?
It is PRECISELY because the EU encourages transfer pricing between EU countries that the corporations not paying their taxes in the UK ( Amazon, Starbucks etc) get away with it
The companies you cite are under attack from the EU not over their taxes but because they represent a threat to the EU by allowing free speech , access to information and are the building blocks for a services based future which the EU has no part in, can’t participate in and has failed miserably at.
You are totally wrong about small business in the UK. Of the 5.7 million 4.8 million are one person businesses , they dont supply anything to those 2 ( TWO ) companies.
There are 749,000 unfilled jobs in the UK. The Computer Trade magazine survey says there will be 800,000 unfilled tech, digital and IT jobs by 2021 in the UK.
Oh thats right your beloved EU doesn’t have a single market in services, doesn’t have any presence worth talking about in new digital tech and is totally out of the loop on Finch
We may be older Andy but we can see the future, you on the other hand are stuck firmly in the middle of the 20th century
July 11, 2018
Mrs May has already started to find euphemisms for the ‘four freedoms’, so that when the EU digs its heels in, she will sell the final capitulation as ‘an EU compromise’.
The sacrifice of large sums of annual tribute and UK concessions allowing limitless immigration of EU citizens and subjugation to the ECJ will be done at the last moment before 29 March 2019.
And so they will make Britain a moral desert, and call it ‘peace’.
July 11, 2018
And while weāre quoting Tacitus, letās remember his advice on how the EU will see us ever after: āProprium humani ingenii est odisse quem laeserisā – It is human nature to hate those you hurt.
July 11, 2018
Even with free movement immigration is not limitless – it is self-limiting.
And it is self-limiting because although, in theory, 500m EU citizens could turn up tomorrow – well over 99% wonāt and never will.
Of course one of the most enthusiastic adopters of free movement are, in fact, the British. 1m live in other EU countries – exercising a wonderful right which you voted to take away.
I hope they get the chance to reciprocate by removing something you value.
July 12, 2018
Wrong again Andy.
There is no proposal by the UK nor the EU to stop people “moving”
We lived, worked, travelled and studied in Europe before you or the EU were born.
July 12, 2018
Andy
Andy Andy Andy , its like taking sweets from a baby
A record 125,000 foreign students have applied to study at British universities this autumn, including over 50,000 from EU, up 2% on last year.
Talking of babies , the problem with you children is you still live in a fairy tale land of magic , unicorns and wizards
hans
Dont bother with your post about this, we dont want to read it…cheers
July 11, 2018
Prepare for Corbyn because Remain prefer that to real Brexit.
July 11, 2018
Exactly, the elite will suffer more than us under a communist regime that they have conspired to create.
July 11, 2018
”ELITE”?? They’re NOT ”elite”.
July 11, 2018
Anonymous
Prepare for Corbyn because Remain prefer that to real Brexit
Sad but true. As in all aspects of life perception is all there is. The elected Tory members have bought this situation firmly upon themselves and now the perception of the public is that they are are watching a complete and utter shambles and embarrassment to this once great country bought about by lamentable leadership and inept politicians. People who have operated throughout the whole process all with their own agendas with no concerns or respect for the voice of the people. For the party to survive it will take a seismic change in how they select , appoint both MPs and their leader and more importantly listen to the electorate.
July 11, 2018
You can thank the shortlist system that stuffed the Tory benches with place men.
July 11, 2018
But that’s only 48% which last time I looked was not a majority…
July 11, 2018
But the UK has a FPTP system where 35.2% is a majority.
July 12, 2018
Under PR a party with much less than 35.2% of votes can easily be in charge.
July 12, 2018
Peter Parson
Which means that 52% is a huge majority then
July 12, 2018
Not necessarily, no, as it all depends on how the 52% are distributed.
52% can be a minority under the UK’s electoral system.
July 13, 2018
Peter Parsons
Therefore under the same system and logic 48% would be an even smaller minority then
July 11, 2018
Anon – Corbyn would relieve the Tory party of the job of exiting the EU which they do not want to do. Why else the abysmal manifesto, some say by intent, at the last un-necessary G.E. thereby losing their majority.
July 11, 2018
Clear and concise as ever, but has May learnt anything since Chequers, I doubt it. The white paper will be the same again nuance by her civil service cronies to mean everything and nothing. I am truly pissed of with these cleverer than the truth vacuous politicians. Question, do civil servants wear white cotton gloves when polishing.
July 11, 2018
Stuart Wheeler is surely spot on with his letter to the Telegraph yesterday. We should not fear a general election once a sensible leader has replaced the appalling, duplicitous Theresa May.
SIR ā Britain has a reputation for losing every battle but the last. If the resignation of David Davis, whom I had misjudged, does the trick, Britain will be in his debt forever.
I am delighted to see that Boris Johnson has followed his lead. But will one, two ā¦ or five of the other Cabinet Brexiteers support them? That would kill the Chequers plan stone dead.
I do not believe that it would bring the Government down, though it might bring Mrs May down.
In any case, there would be no reason to fear a general election. The people of this country were willing to give the complacent Tories a bloody nose last time round, but they will not make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister.
Stuart Wheeler
London SW1
July 11, 2018
Especially as it would probably be Corbyn/SNP coalition. What sensible person could possibly want that, especially any English person? The Tories, if they can ever elect a sensible & competent pro Brexit leader (who fires Hammond), will win comfortably. If they do not they will have voters flooding back to UKIP in droves.
The tragedy of Cameron is that he too had two sitting duck elections. He mucked both up with his pro EU, high tax, lefty, green crap stupidity and total EU duplicity. May clearly leaned nothing from this and tried to continue with this duplicity in spades. She really is a dead woman walking now – as the appalling IHT ratter George Osborne put it. What a sick joke the Tory conference will be if this duplicitous, robot and electoral liability is still PM.
July 11, 2018
The problem is that many cabinet brexiteers are complicit in May’s deception and cannot be relied on. We need a cleanout of Parliament & HOL to reintroduce a representative democracy
July 11, 2018
Mr Wheeler misjudged the national mood. If the Chequers variant is rejected by the Tories, Corbyn will win the next election. The young are already upset at Brexit – 41% want to work abroad, they will lose the right to do so in Europe whatever – and rejection of Chequers will strongly enhance an already high propensity to vote for Corbyn. The Tory party will destroy itself over Europe if not careful – you cannot be seen, or appear to be, motivated by a dislike of Europe (and thatās what the anti-EU rhetoric increasingly looks like. As this goes on, the risks of a Corby government seem less than they ought to – including for a business sector that needs to stay close to Europe.
July 11, 2018
Nonsense. The “youth quake” is a myth. Corbyn didn’t win or even semi-win; May semi-lost – the biggest electoral blunder in recent history but typical of that “bloody woman”. She’ll lose for real if she kicks the right in the teeth with this deal of hers; and there’s nothing to hope for among the metro set anyway – we’ll have to wait for them to be mugged by reality.
July 11, 2018
41% want to do all kinds of things. That is such a bogus statistic.
What is the percentage that want to get a pay rise?
July 11, 2018
Gareth, Chequers is soft Remain; it is not what we voted for. There is no “dislike of Europe”, what we don’t like is the EU.
Brexit does not stop anyone working abroad but it does give us back the right to decide who comes to the UK – just like other nations have.
“Wanting” and doing are different. The number of Brits in the EU is about 1.3 million (including the retired) which is c4% of the British working population of 32 million. That’s a tenth of your fanciful claim.
July 11, 2018
I will not vote for May.
July 11, 2018
It will not be May. She is even less electable than John Major after he destroyed the economy with his idiotic ERM and did not even apologise for it.
July 11, 2018
Excellent article in Spectator analysing the Chequers proposal which shows every red line has been deleted and the whole document is tantamount to membership of the EU without representation.
The very scenario which started the American Civil War. taxation without representation.
I hear Robbins is touring EU capitals to encourage them to accept Mays capitulation and no doubt to assure them that a substantial annual “contribution” will be forthcoming as well as continued freedom of movement.
Welcome to Satrap Britain.
July 11, 2018
Ian, A very good article. One which May ought to read so she is clear she is lying and we know it.
July 11, 2018
@LL; Mr Wheeler is again so very wrong. If a general election is called it will likely be 1983 all over again, except this time it will be the right-wing signing their own political suicide note.
People do not vote for the direct opposite to what they really want, even less so should they want even more of what they actually want, if they are not going to vote for their favoured party they are likely to simply sit on their hands. Those who voted Conservative in 1983 did not do so because they thought that years Labour manifesto did not go far enough!
Sorry Mr Wheeler and Mr Lifelogic, yes in 2017 the electorate were (and the opinion polls suggest they still are) prepared to make Mr Corbyn Prime Minister – in the same way as then disaffected Labour voters were prepared to make Mrs Thatcher PM in 1983.
July 11, 2018
It certainly is a time when it is difficult to predict what might soon happen.
And in many ways I agree with you Jerry.
But Blair got elected years ago with a large majority with just 10.6 million votes.
17.2 million voted to leave.
July 12, 2018
@Edward2; The referenda result you cite is irrelevant, unless you are suggesting that Brexit will not happen, but few now question that the UK is leaving the legal entity known as the European Union.
The problem for many (on both side of the debate) is they feel the UK will not leave How they feel we should, which is fair enough as no one has ever been asked.
July 12, 2018
I was wondering how the 17.2 million who voted Leave may vote at the next election if they feel Brexit, as described in the leaflet and by the PM during the referendum campaign, has not happened.
Will many refuse to vote Tory?
Or will they switch to other parties.
Also what will Labour’s policy be at time of the next election?
Interesting political times ahead.
July 12, 2018
Jerry, The outcome we voted for was to Leave the EU. We were not asked for an essay to describe our priorities and feelings. We each made a decision on balance, as we do at general elections or when buying a car. You are deliberately confusing how we leave (Art50, or international law) with the outcome. You use this to insinuate that there can be different outcomes. That is false.
July 12, 2018
@NickC; Do you even have a first clue as to what Democracy means, never mind the difference between an election and a referenda… š
“We were not asked for an essay to describe our priorities and feelings.”
No need to write an essay, just a tick the box that best describes how you want the UK to leave the EU, after all with 29 groups campaigning for Brexit, as of 2016, surely one of them best agrees with why you want to leave the EU even if it might not be fully what you want.
As for buying a car, thanks for proving my point. Do you honestly buy the first car you are offered, how ever unsuitable it, or do you consider the sales literature, the specification etc, consider perhaps more than one model, more than one make. When we vote at elections we do not simply vote for “Capitalism”, “Social Democracy” or “Socialism” etc, we vote for a (party or candidate) manifesto, well the majority do…
The only people who are deliberately confusing the issues are fundamentalist europhobes such as yourself. Norway is not a member of the EU, that is why some suggested (and still suggest) we could use Norway as a template for Brexit – indeed it became known as ‘Flexcit’ and was debated on this very site – not something what I would want but it is not my place (nor anyone’s) to project onto the 71,410 odd who voted to leave that they should want. Then there is the little matter of the broadly Capitalist and Socialist groups that also campaigned for a Leave vote, are you seriously suggesting that their supporters voted for the same flavour of Brexit?
July 11, 2018
JR, Do we trust that the WTO deal preparations will be speeded up? That seems more like a throw away platitude to stroke Leave voters, than real. So, NO – Leave voters’ trust in this government has evaporated.
Since all parties are members of the WTO (inc the EU) any regional trade deal between the UK and the EU must conform to WTO rules, and be registered at the WTO. Much of the preparation for any deal is similar. And we may actually need the WTO deal anyway.
Therefore we should, at the moment, only be pursuing the WTO deal. We should only be looking at an RTA with the EU as a backstop, and only if the EU is willing to talk to us as an equal.
July 11, 2018
This is her con the public and dim wits in the Tory party that it is being addressed. The scathingly omission was highlighted by Boris’ resignation letter. Like Cameron she has not countenanced it properly and has up until now paid little regard to it.
July 11, 2018
The Eu have never regarded the UK as an equal…
July 11, 2018
Because it is not. 500m vs 60m.
July 12, 2018
Andy
Make your mind up , the EU is just 27 individual countries in a club, so no its not 500 million vs 60 million
Unless you want to admit that the UK commonwealth 1.2 billion v EU 500 million is also a valid statistic
July 12, 2018
Andy, Wrong again. The rEU is c450m and the UK is nearer c75m. But what has size got to do with it anyway?
July 11, 2018
Dioclese, True. But that’s because we behave as a supplicant.
July 11, 2018
And we don’t get caught up in the coming US/EU trade war.
July 11, 2018
Plans for a No Deal – This is just a charade all carefully choreographed between Theresa May and Angela Merkel. Sheās said it just to give the Brexiteers some hope that we leave the Union next March and stop us protesting. Thereās no way she can implement her White Paper plan for years, itās just far too complicated, so her next course of action will be to agree an extension to Article 50. Anyone who still has trust in our Prime Minister is a fool. She needs to be replaced with someone who believes in Brexit before she destroys both the country and the Conservative party.
July 11, 2018
I couldn’t agree more – but what baffles me is the reluctance of the Tory party to do it. I suspect it’s a case of MPs with Remain constituencies versus MPs with Leave constituencies – which affects not just the Conservatives but Labour, too. Even the Libdems had this problem once, which is why they lost the West Country. The moral of all this is that “Leave” will have to become a political party and the old parties will wither away – I suggest the new group should call itself The National Democrats. With seventeen million potential voters, it might sweep the board.
July 11, 2018
Once we get rid of the EU are next battle will be to keep people like Gove and Boris out of power and we must never have another Blair or Cameron or May as PM. At least we have more chance of controlling the political class on a national level. All I want is a PM with some INTEGRITY, is that too much to ask? I can find people with more integrity than those three down the pub.
July 11, 2018
It is my belief that this Government with treacherous May and Hammond at the helm have no intention whatsoever of delivering a no deal Brexit because in their desperation to cling to the EU at any cost, to them any deal is better than no deal. May’s constant capitulation has made us a laughing stock of the world and when the EU demand further concessions to the Brino Chequers agreement which they will, they know, as we all do, that May will oblige. We also have a majority of the 650 self serving MPs in the UK Government who do not care about representing their constituents on Brexit and will never allow a no deal. The EU knows this and therefore will make sure we get a bad deal.
Why are you and your Brexit colleagues allowing May to stay in post John? I have every faith in the British public that if a GE were called, they would put back in power a pro-Brexit Government if one existed. You and your colleagues should have faith too because the alternative is May will take you all down with her not to mention the country.
July 11, 2018
Really John, yet again, my comment has been in moderation since 7.00 this morning. Is there any point?
July 11, 2018
Why should anyone believe Mrs May now, she has said they are working on a No (WTO) deal before, and it turned out to be untrue.
If a WTO deal is such a good idea, and I agree it should be the backstop for any agreement, then why are so many in Parliament against it.
Are they simply so dim they cannot understand it, or do they really think “no deal” means absolutely nothing will be in place.
I dispare at the lack of intelligence, Commercial knowledge, and patriotism of many of our MP’s who seem to forget that they are supposed to serve the people who have elected them.
July 11, 2018
Afraid all I can see John is a huge fudge of an agreement approaching on the horizon that will be so complicated, that we will be having legal arguments for years over interpretation, and at the end of the process many Mp’s will feel as though they have been duped.
History will repeat itself.
Its happened with the EU before, its happened with the approval of many past Prime Ministers before, and with Mrs May believing the EU are her friends, it will happen again.
Afraid I now have zero faith in Mrs May producing anything that is sensible, workable or in our Country’s best interests.
July 11, 2018
Unfortunately whilst most people can clearly see the advantages of a No Deal Brexit May and her cronies do not. They are actively working for Brussels and against the will and interests of the British people. This is nothing new of course. British politicians have been doing so for decades. What we see now is the clear proof that voting has no effect, policies are merely tweaked to make us cattle believe we have a say. Through May the lie of democracy is revealed.
July 11, 2018
JR, Polly Mackenzie said on Sky News this morning that Brexiteers’ fatal weakness is that they have no alternative plan, and nor do they have an alternative leader.
So who’s Polly Mackenzie when she’s at home? It doesn’t matter, she’s somebody who’s been given access to an audience of millions to assist the Sky Campaign Against Brexit, and it doesn’t matter who she is as long as she supports that campaign.
So is she right or wrong?
Well, for a start I would set aside the alternative leader part, on the basis that if Theresa May can be bent in one direction by her present preferred eurofanatic chief adviser then she could probably be bent in the opposite direction once that adviser had been removed and replaced by a patriotic adviser who believed in a clean Brexit.
As for the first part, I think the fatal flaw in your stated position is one of language, that “no deal” ostensibly refers to any deal at all on any of the many subjects of international relations which have got bound up with EU membership when it should be specifically about a trade deal, and preferably with the word “special” inserted.
After all it was Labour’s Emily Thornberry who pointed out that:
“… we have been trading perfectly successfully with the United States for a very long time, they are our biggest trading partner outside the EU without a trading deal … ”
I mentioned this at the time, six months ago now:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/01/15/economic-assessments-of-leaving-the-eu/#comment-912898
and commented:
“So there we have the new Labour party policy, namely that we donāt actually need any trade deal with the United States to trade āperfectly successfullyā, weāve been doing that āfor a very long timeā and apparently basic WTO terms are just fine for that, and therefore it doesnāt really matter how much our politicians and others indulge in gratuitous public insults to the current President, but on the other hand it would be catastrophic if we left the EU without any special trade deal.”
And added:
“I think you should make a note of this, JR, and every time Labour throws David Davisās foolish āexact same benefitsā into your face just throw back these words.”
July 11, 2018
Totally agree John. WTO is our baseline & they needed to better that. I believe that is what the original Brexiteers in DExEU wanted & planned for.
However, actions speak louder than words & the team have been undermined, from the remaining top, from the beginning & the sedition & treason is astonishing. Your ‘Party’ will not survive this betrayal. With the exception of a few stalwarts, like yourself,people can no longer ‘trust a tory’. The lies are both blatant and by ommission. Sophistry to deceive the public. The same also applies to Labour, but they are not in power.
Our democracy is being destroyed by both tory (you’re not a Conservative party any more), Labour & the rest of our so-called ‘Parliament’. When a democracy refuses to implement a decision made via its own democratic rules, it ceases to be a democracy.
July 11, 2018
Annette, Well said. We’ll believe a WTO deal is being prepared for when we see actual evidence of it.
July 11, 2018
Once again you write sound economic logic, a feature absent from this government.
It is financial, social and political lunacy to even consider giving the EU Ā£39b.
July 11, 2018
Certainly absent from the treasury.
July 11, 2018
It has been suggested that post ” Chequers” a change of policy rather than a change of leader is required. The only likely change of policy will be yet further concessions to the E.U. The only possibility of securing what our host has outlined ( and which is devoutly to be wished for) is through a change of leadership.
July 11, 2018
I agree with everything you have said. I’ve never thought the EU would give us a deal better than WTO terms because they are more interested in punishing us than they are in their own best interests on maintaining their trade surplus with us.
John, you know the balance of forces in Parliament far better than any of us :
Would there ever be a circumstance where the majority of Remainers in Parliament would actually support a vote to leave without a deal ?
If not, we are all wasting our time discussing it here.
Personally, I think the majority of MPs are so desperate to cling to Brussels that they will vote for any deal on offer, no matter how bad it would be for us.
Trouble is, Barnier knows that as well.
July 11, 2018
Monza. I fear you are right. I have always hoped Mrs May was playing ”the long game” and that at the last moment she would play a blinder, confounding them all. Perhaps that’s still the case – but hope is fading, it seems.
What truly amazes me is that our politicians seem to believe that we really ARE all sheep – uneducated, narrow-minded, arrogant yet afraid, needing to be guided by those who they themselves believe are in some way BETTER than the rest of us (note the word ”elite” that people keep using). They think we all have the Remainder mindset – closet xenophobic, poorly-read (”click Like on Facebook”), self-serving (”what about MY bank balance?”)
It doesn’t seem to have occurred to our ”leaders” that they are leading people who actually KNOW what they are up to. And we don’t like it.
July 11, 2018
Monza. I think you are right. We were doomed from the start. As soon as it went to court that was the start of the rot.
July 11, 2018
Whilst seeing May some of the right things shows that she is not stupid – as is indicated by her proposal. It doesn’t matter what she says, she has been utterly dishonest.
– A common rule book – but written by the other side.
– An ability to leave – though I will wager a very large sum that the mechanism for leaving will be so painful that it is an illusory right.
– Stripping the negotiation from the minister
– Agreeing the proposal with Merkel, etc but only showing it to her own government at the last minute in a transparent attempt to force obedience through process rather than the merit of her ideas.
– Allegedly she has been blocking the no-deal planning and refusing to allow it to be made public (so that it can be debated and refined).
I understand as a matter of honor you are limited in your ability to criticise her, but this is tremendously cynical on her part, and worse appears to be creating in substance hard-remain.
No-deal it is for me, and have a series of simple separate agreements ready and public that the EU can sign to cover areas such as air travel.
July 11, 2018
The remain loving House of Lords has opined that the 39 billion is not legally due to the EU.
The proposals coming out of Chequers do not give the UK a good reason why 39 billion should be paid.
Does that not make a no deal outcome inevitable?
July 11, 2018
So May thinks her Brexit deal satisfies the leave voters and meets their expectations. All I can say is that she must have had a large dose of that cannabis oil that’s just come into the country.
July 11, 2018
Your description of “no deal” sounds excellent – just what I had in mind when voting Leave, in fact.
July 11, 2018
The 2-year period between activating our decision to leave & finally departing existed to enable all negotiation & preparation to be completed. Some prep should have occurred before the Referendum, but David Cameron arrogantly assumed remaining was the only way forward. Theresa May added a long pause before triggering Article 50, probably needed, yet has dithered hopelessly since.
Fundamentally, the problem now prevailing was of David Cameron’s making. However, TM’s attitude of leading, by asking followers where she should go, lacks direction & velocity.
Replace her rapidly with a Brexit leader fit for purpose, who shall act powerfully to achieve the outcome the UK needs: probably WTO oriented.
July 11, 2018
I wonder if Aldi and Lidl want to compromise their very god trade here?
July 11, 2018
good.
July 11, 2018
@margaret; Either way they -along with all other UK supermarket chains- will have no need to alter their business model here in the UK, their buying departments will be sourcing cheap German pretzels today, cheap RotW (US?) made pretzels tomorrow or what ever…
July 11, 2018
I read that the cabinet was given the much vaunted 120 page white paper at 6pm last night and must express their views by 10 am today. What a contemptuous way to treat colleagues.
The behaviour of Mrs May is intolerable. It is quite clear that when she lists all the things she says we are going to do by leaving the EU she deliberately omits to convey the message that she proposes signing new treaties with that same EU which binds us to many of the self-same things. Your party and the future of our democracy are in the balance.
July 11, 2018
@Brian Tomkinson; What contemptuous, intolerable, behaviour?! Considering that they have already had at least one briefing (last Friday) on what will be in the White Paper if cabinet members can not read and digest 120 pages in 12 hours they have no right to be in government…
If you are correct, God help us if we have a real crisis were decisions are measured in minutes never mind hours.
July 11, 2018
Mrs May went to visit Mrs Merkel last week before the Chequers meeting and then went to see her again yesterday. Some are now suggesting that she wasn’t just showing the proposal to the cabinet before discussing it with them but actually collecting them frm the puppet master in Berlin.
July 11, 2018
@Brian Tomkinson; When all rational thought process has vanished, launch on the conspiracy theories…
July 12, 2018
Jerry
Hmmm… Except Raab the minister for Brexit just refused to deny it on the floor of the house when asked point blank by Kate Hoey
July 12, 2018
@libertarian; Non denial of a Complex question proves nothing; Walter, ‘Have you stopped beating your wife yet’?…
July 13, 2018
Jeremiah
Straightforward question Did you show Merkel the document before the cabinet… Yes or No
To answer your question…. I dont have a wife
July 11, 2018
And as Trump said this morning that Germany was acting as a slave to Putin, the actual Chequers document no doubt has in fact been written in the Kremlin.
July 12, 2018
@Puffer Fish; “the actual Chequers document no doubt has in fact been written in the Kremlin.”
Some believe the referenda result was written by the Kremlin too, funny old world, (according to those selling conspiracy theories) one moment the Kremlin wants the UK out of the EU and the next they want the UK to remain so closely tied to the EU’s coat-tails it is as if they never left…
July 11, 2018
Is it true that Frau Merkel refers to the White Paper as “Operation Sea Lion”?
July 11, 2018
The no deal is a stunt by May to try to placate the Leavers.It will never happen as May is and always was a Remainer.Just look at her initial red lines.They are diminishing by the minute.The Eu will win the day helped by our PM.I will never vote Conservative again.
July 11, 2018
JR. You can see it, I can see it, masses of the population can see it. Why Can’t Mrs May?
It’s time for No deal, time to walk away from the EU.
July 11, 2018
Absolutely right as usual Mr Redwood. Unfortunately, the message that comes from the Government and the BBC (where most get there information) is of doom and gloom on trade and the Irish border situation which they always allege cannot be solved without a deal.
Trust has been lost in Government and yesterday the man who brings my firewood told me that his father says he will no longer vote at all. Another conservative vote lost.
July 11, 2018
@BOF; Most people get their information not from the BBC but the Tabloids, be their print editions or websites, followed by (and it’s an increasing trend) social media sites – hence the concern over (so called) Fake News and how social media sites push such content based on analysing what their members/visitors follow and the sites they visit.
July 12, 2018
Jerry, How do you know?
July 11, 2018
Despite many fine speeches from Mrs May, her actions speak for themselves and confirm that this a faux Brexit government. As I’ve said many times, the only way to achieve true UK independence is to vote for a party whose raison d’ĆŖtre is UK independence.
July 11, 2018
We should simply be looking for a no deal and WTO. Anything else is in the gift of the EU, so it pointless us ‘applying’ for concessions.
July 11, 2018
There is absolutely no chance of us leaving on WTO. The EU will come up with an offer of sorts which in all probability we will accept regardless of what it is. It is impossible for the EU to offer the UK a ‘good deal’ as it may open the floodgates (albeit halfway) for others to test the water with their own referendum. May is now determined to go for the softest of Brexit’s even if it means her having to stand down. She has factored all this in and is probably pleased with herself that DD and BJ have at last gone.
July 11, 2018
I am absolutely staggered that Mr. Redwood thinks . We could join the Trans Pacific Partnership?
The last time I looked, we were a member of a Partnership that he wants to leave, right on our doorstep, now he wants to join up with a Pacific Partnership that has nothing to do with us because it is eh, in the Pacific.
And gosh, we can trade with massive countries such as New Zealand, Australia, which we already do and the huge Singapore, which we already do.
The US Ambassador sais today about the good trade , currently between them and the UK, already.
News Mr.Redwood and Brexmoaners. We have 27 friendly countries on our doorstep. If you get a ferry from Dover ,(which should be our Border but for some reason Mr.Redwood is happy for the UK border to be on foreign soil), there is a big business and economic area for free trade.
I know, I know you don’t want ” them foreigners comin’ over ‘ere, takin’ jobs from British people”. But of course they are the jobs British don’t wish to or are to lazy to do.
The British people did not vote for a hard Brexit like the Tory Right wingers want, and having one will not unite the nation but cause even more division, (if that is possible), than there already is.
The views of the 48 per cent must be taken into account which Mrs.May has tried to do.
The Conservative government/party has got to start putting the lives of 50 million people first, not a mere 17.4 million
July 11, 2018
I don’t trust May and her government one inch and there certainly has been no confirmation that anyone can trust that preparations for anything other than appeasement and surrender are even underway let alone being sped up.
The last few days of bizarre and puerile behaviour by the May government must surely indicate something must be done urgently. At least a few individuals have acted properly whilst others have decided their careers are far more important than democracy.
Clearly, May is not listening to anyone outside her chosen circle and certainly won’t take advice, so what are you going to actually do to prevent these and December’s disastrous proposals becoming a commitment?
July 11, 2018
Our host has reiterated his case that WTO terms have attractions even if an FTA cannot be achieved.
However, the question which is foremost at this point in time is how we can arrive at this
destination when Parliamentary arithmetic counts against that outcome. Also, TM’s determination to achieve alignment with the EU rules suggests images of a kamikaze pilot locked on.
So how can this headlong race towards ruin be avoided?
Boris and DD have vacated their cabinet positions.
Could it possibly be the case that Gove’s continued participation in this frightful agenda
is more complicated than it appears on first impressions. Without an intelligent assessment of what is being discussed in cabinet the Brexiteer position is made more difficult. Could it not be the case that Gove’s continued presence within the cabinet was pre-agreed with Boris and DD and that his departure when it occurs will be calibrated for maximum effect.
July 11, 2018
Noooooooooooo. He has prepared a capitulation of our fishing stocks paper to be added to those treaties May is dying to sign to keep us in the EU by all diffent names.
July 11, 2018
WTO terms are the most basic level upon which trade operates – a minimum standard trade framework. Most other countries who trade with the EU without a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have other agreements that better the basic WTO terms.
Despite the argument that pre-existing arrangements, could just be carried over or new ones drawn up, this would require “a deal”; so would specifically not be the case under “no deal”, we would be in a legal void.
No other developed countries trade with the EU solely on WTO terms. It is not true that the Americans, Australians, Canadians, Israelis or Swiss do. Aside from preferential trade agreements, they have one or more of three levels of Recognition Agreements, including minor Equivalence Agreements. The EU has mutual conformity of assessment agreements with the US, Canada, Israel, Switzerland, Australia and New Zealand, and more.
A worst-case scenario trade deal, would be better than WTO terms. UK consumers would not tolerate WTO terms for long. (HT: Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce)
July 12, 2018
acorn
Thats funny because thats NOT what the EU said themselves about trading with the US under WTO rules… You might want to check before posting…
July 11, 2018
That it is appropriate for you to discuss this topic today, years after the serving of the Article 50 notice and months before our putative liberation date, is testament to how very poor has been the May government’s handling of Brexit.
July 11, 2018
Mr Redwood,
I am interested in how the tariif-money would flow IF we end up collecting tariifs for the EU. Care to offer us your thoughts?
July 11, 2018
We already collect the EU’s tariffs for them and we are allowed to keep 20% of the receipts to cover our costs. In the absence of any contrary indications I presume that the same thing would apply. Much more to the point, where we would get the money to reimburse importers for EU tariffs they had paid on goods intended for consumption in the UK? If that was still the idea. Apparently also the remaining EU member states would not be collecting UK tariffs on goods imported into their territories but destined for onward shipment to the UK. Personally I cannot see the point of this scheme, it would be much easier to say that if you choose to send a container of goods to a UK port but just en route to the EU then provided it is properly secured you can do that without paying any UK duties, just port fees or whatever, and then the EU port can charge the EU duties when your container gets there. If you want to send a mixed container, well, you could end up paying two lots of duties on some of the contents so that would not be a good idea.
July 11, 2018
Would I be correct in saying 39bn of taxpayerās cash is just for starters but the ongoing unspecified amounts for ever and a day. This is not Brexit. Why pay for such an imbalance of trade. Just how did we end up in such a situation? I doubt, from past experience, we have the expertise or indeed the inclination to extricate ourselves from this intolerable situation having arrived at where we are in the first place with big money in control.
July 11, 2018
I note that the new Dexeu Minister, Dominic Raab, has also said that these preparations are part of his remit. But does the assurance that the government ‘will make preparations’ for a no-deal scenario mean anything, given that Hammond has actively prevented those preparations from taking place so far, and civil servants have been unwilling to move outside their comfort zones?
How shall we be able to tell that such preparations are actively taking place?
Isn’t this just a fig-leaf, given Barnier’s sudden enthusiasm for negotiations, and his volte-face from doom-and-gloom to a sudden declaration that 80% of the negotiations had now been completed?
For Franco-Germany and the parasites in Brussels our capitulation is in sight. And JR, you will never persuade your frightened and economically illiterate colleagues of the benefits of a no deal. They have been cowed by the propaganda of big business – and doubtless by the thought of retaining their party donations – and such MPs care not a whit whether this country is independent and truly free, or enslaved and shackled to the EU for all eternity, just as long as their own amenable arrangements are safe.
July 11, 2018
What preparations? Could you please keep us up to date with what preparations are being made?
July 11, 2018
JR,
This is an interesting perspective with both savings, tax cuts and new trading partners.
but is it realistic?
1) The WTO rules are permanently being broken by both China and the US for the moment, how does that position the UK?
2) The savings of Ā£ 39 billion not being paid to the EU, of course assumes there are no negative consequences of leaving the EU to the UK Treasure, is that realistic?
3)Joining the Trans Pacific Trade Organisation as the only European participant and a trade zone the US does not want to join, does that make sense?
4) The hypothesis of lower salaries due to EU immigration has been proven not to be the case in the past, so what do you expect out of the changed immigration policy?
5) New trade deals with partners in Asia , Australia and Commonwealth sounds like a good idea, but how long will that take to get implemented?
If you have answers to these questions then the No Del might just have a chance
July 11, 2018
Nothing can justify shackling Britain to the EU and giving up any semblance of our political independence and trading freedom.
It is down to the government to get their skids on and prepare for No Deal.
July 11, 2018
Hans, You will have to accept that the UK decided, on balance, that the disadvantages of the EU outweighed the advantages. So your list is self-serving. Frankly, I want my country to be independent. But if that is impossible, as you insist, then I would prefer us to be the 51st state of the USA, than the 28th state of the USE.
July 12, 2018
NickC,
I just asked a number of questions nothing more and nothing less
July 12, 2018
hans
Couple of points here
1) The EU constantly breaks its own rules too
2) Sir Steve Nickell of Bank of England wrote a report claiming UK wages were 2% lower due to EU immigration
3) Average non EU trade deals take between 1-3 years to fully implement
4) In commerce theres a thing called supply and demand, with the UK skills shortages wages will rise ( especially if the government stop putting more employment costs on employers as they have done over the last 2 years )
5) Saving Ā£39 billion could also have a big positive effect if invested correctly
July 11, 2018
There comes a time when the order of the day ” Take Cover” is supplanted by “Fix Bayonets”.
It is time for the latter.
I have written to my M.P.
What else can we do within the Law?
Apart from joining UKIP
even though the next election will be too late.
July 11, 2018
@Fishknife; It was to late by 10pm on the 8th June 2017. Unless you propose (a totally illegal and undemocratic) revolution we will just have to accept the democratic choice of the electorate (that superseded the 2016 referenda result).
July 11, 2018
You could read.
Through reading comes learning.
And through learning comes the realisation that Brexit is dumb.
There you go – your problem solved.
July 11, 2018
But there are polls, that take account of opinions and party membership figures.
They are assiduously studied by Tory MPs in marginal seats. š
July 11, 2018
If we keep our eyes closed we won’t even see the cliff..all we need to do is mumble WTO..and then pray that somehow it all works out!
July 11, 2018
Pray all you want to, ‘PaulW’ – while the rest of us get on with making our NoDeal work for a free and independent Britain.
July 11, 2018
You say…’No Deal’ delivers what most brexit voters want..š..an extraordinary claim by any standards…just another example of why members of the HoC should be allowed only two terms as MP before going back again to the real world
July 11, 2018
James
Its not a no deal, its a WTO deal which I believe 165 Country’s around the world trade under, including the beloved EU, who also just happen to be members already.
July 11, 2018
1. Independence from the EU
2. Freedom to trade with whomever we want to
3. Our own courts as the legal arbiters
4. Freedom to decide our own immigration policy
Yup, that’s the brexit we voted for in June 2016. The way the EU has behaved has simply reinforced our determination.
July 11, 2018
All hypothetical one assumes as the Commons will vote to extend or revoke A50 rather than go to no deal.
Anyway, a different point. It seems a new treaty would be needed by May to lock us in to the EU rules and regulations for the bits of the Single Market she wants to keep. If she prevails and MPs accept her deal I still would have thought that a referendum should be offered on that treaty ?
July 11, 2018
The UK cannot unilaterally decide to either extend or revoke Article 50, and in fact there is not even any provision for revocation of a notice once delivered; so what would we give the EU in exchange for their consent to an extension to the two year negotiating period laid down in the article? Another Ā£40 billion, maybe?
July 11, 2018
In politics you have to listen to your core vote, the gap between conservative MP’s and their voters is now massive. Failing to deliver manifesto promises on immigration and Brexit are going to hurt at the ballot box. Labour being crap is not going to save our useless ruling class in the conservative party. Those in the bubble clearly think they can get away with this, the evidence on the streets says otherwise. More than your response John, which they will see as predictable from a brexiteer, you need to tell them the next election is lost unless something is done. The ordinary people will revolt.
July 11, 2018
Iain Gill
I wholeheartedly agree with your comment.
Question: Who is “The ordinary people will revolt” that you speak of? If one is highly educated, financially wealthy and intrinsically honest..and a Brexiteer to boot, does that make him or her a part of the ordinary people? And conversely, if one is not highly educated or financially secure, but is also intrinsically honest does that also lump that individual into the “ordinary people?”
My point. I am tired of being listed, sarcastically and in a derogatory belittling manner, as an ordinary person (not by you, but the MSM, Establishment, elite and so-called Politicians, et al).
In my opinion, “we” are the real people; honest people; hard-working people; tax paying people; people with integrity; we have dignity, are passionately proud and patriotic to be British; that has brought much to the world? There is nothing there that constitutes “we are ordinary”.
…..the rest: Aristocracy, self-serving elite, self-serving celebs and self-serving Politicians are the “ordinary” people!
The real “proud British people” will deliver Brexit, not the self-serving (EU licking) Establishment cartel!
Excuse the rant!
July 12, 2018
Dennis, brilliantly put!
July 11, 2018
We could tell the EU what we want, react only to what they deny, then choose the better option; probably WTO.
July 11, 2018
How can it be there is a c 100 page white paper about to be published but itās contents were news to cabinet members inc the foreign secretary and the resp Sec of state as late as last week? Cabinet government, with discussion and agreement on a collective position, is part of our constitution and itās clear it is not operating as it should be. No wonder itās such a mess.
July 11, 2018
The UK has an uncodified Constitution, and discussion and agreement on a collective position has only been a convention, more or less respected by successive Prime Ministers. So the present Prime Minister is not out ofher prerogatives here.
July 11, 2018
John, with the greatest respect, everything you say in your latest comment is a reiteration and frankly intensely tacit; more a wish list than a real probability whilst T. May is at the helm.
Reality check: This is all a Remainer fanatical facade. As we speak T. May and her cohorts, led by the treacherous Oily Robbins, are now fudging the White Paper again, to find new weasel and delusive wording to paint a picture Brexit is being delivered when it is clear to all and sundry this is another complete lie to the electorate.
Constantly drumming out the same mantra of Brexit benefits while it is being nefariously circumvented behind closed doors, shows you have no more insight then we do (you’re not in the Remainer clique) and only have a clear idea when T. May makes an official announcement?
In this Government, being on the Backbenches is a long way from the actual reality of current Cabinet actions? It is obvious they are misleading their own party, which ultimately will destroy the Conservative party!
Your constant cheering and reiteration for a clean Brexit with its obvious benefits to the nation are fully understood and commendable…for the past 2 years. However, what we need now is concrete action!
Fact: T. May will never realise a clean Brexit? She, therefore, needs to be removed asap!
Action: WHERE ARE THE REAL BREXITEER’S 48 LETTERS?
July 11, 2018
Under the Chequers proposal
1) If the UK wanted to bolster its energy supply, would we be able to decide absolutely independently and without fear of any EU retaliation whether or not to allow fracking?
2) If (say) Australia or the US were to develop an innovative new agricultural product or drug using e.g. GM technology, would the UK be able to decide absolutely independently and without fear of any EU retaliation whether or not to import this new product or drug?
3) If the UK decided it wanted to restructure its social benefit system or would we be able to do so absolutely independently and without fear of any EU retaliation?
In each case, your own view may be that it is a good thing that the UK is hampered in its ability to make decisions independently along any of these lines, but the referendum suggested that a majority of the electorate think otherwise.
July 11, 2018
Soft brexit, hard brexit, deal, no deal, it has all been nonsense from the beginning and the Political elite that have not respected the result of the referendum (aided by a Civil Service of similar persuasion) have maneuvered the country into this ludicrous position. It is remarkable that Barnier (and Merkel) can announce we are 80% there (where ever that is) even before the White Paper has been published. The cards were on the table as soon as the EU laid down the terms and process for any negotiations whereby Trade was the last thing to be discussed and Mrs May agreed!. Anyone with any modicum of sense would have set off on the path of Departure on the basis that we would be working on WTO terms on the 30th March 2019.
Discussions and negotiations could follow on (or commence any time) but did not have a deadline (as we are being corralled into now). Northern Ireland, that border issue was addressed by the EU Policy Department for Citizenās Rights who concluded in November 2017 that there was no need for a hard border with the ROI. (see http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/supporting-analyses-search.html?method=search&wordSearchType=TITLE&content=smart+border+2&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&_organs=on&author=&publicationNumber=&publicationType=&publicationFromDate=&publicationToDate=#supporting-analyses )
July 11, 2018
And now we see the next chapter of project fear under the guise of preparing for a No Deal, we are told of emergency stock piling of food as if the massive percentage of food that comes in from the EU will stop over night!
So they think all the EU producers will just āsuck it upā to use Soubrys phrase. Please Dr Redwood, get your gun ready to shoot down a few more kites.
July 11, 2018
Trump to Germany and the rest, put your hand your pockets and pay up, UK should do the same and also should be the last line of defence for Europe and not first, The countries up front and closet to Russia need to triple their spending because they are on the front line, not the UK. UK defences need be air missiles air crafts and tanks and that in France, Holland and UK You cannot defend Europe from the front line only Europe should be doing that job, as I see it if the UK get wiped out the first wave there would nothing to fall back on.
July 11, 2018
They had that front line crap in the second world war. Remember Dunkirk.
July 11, 2018
JR, if you have a chance you should watch the Solicitor General Robert Buckland deliberately setting out to deceive viewers on the BBC’s Daily Politics programme today. It is long past time that people like him were taken down, he is not fit to be in public life.
July 11, 2018
I think this article is based on a false premise.
Did not David Davis admit that the Ā£39 billion is payable irrespective of a deal? If we did not pay it, we would be in breach of international law.
In other words, the Ā£39bn bonus for exit on WTO terms does not exist.
Reply No
July 11, 2018
We’re heading for a so called peoples referendum. No deal unfortunately won’t get through the commons, so a vote between no deal and the gruel soup that we’ll be offered is the only option.
July 11, 2018
We had a People’s Referendum. Remain cheat.
July 11, 2018
In that scenario, if we didn’t prefer no deal and independence to convenience and subjugation, we wouldn’t be worthy of nationhood: it would not longer be worth living in a country that does not defend its own freedom.
Then it would be time for us to seek out a country that does.
July 11, 2018
Your last paragraph, “Any deal worth accepting has to be better than this. It would need to be a very good offer indeed to be worthwhile paying them Ā£39bn more.” is very telling, the clincher. But isn’t it the case that much of the Ā£39bn is an agreed figure owing to our share of the 7-year EU budget we signed up to, so is in fact a “contractual” commitment we can’t avoid?
Reply No there is no legal requirement to pay anything
July 11, 2018
Germans are not normally known for their sportsmanship ( think Michael Schumacher’s antics on the track , for example ) but we are currently on holiday in Germany and at lunchtime today, several Germans, on hearing us speaking English, took the trouble to come over to our table and wish us luck for this evening’s game. The same thing happened at Breakfast in the hotel.
A nice gesture, and one that shows we still have friends in Europe, even though we are leaving the EU.
July 11, 2018
Others have asked this same question yet have received no answer :
Are there any circumstances in which there is a realistic prospect of getting a No Deal/WTO Brexit though parliament ?
I don’t think there is.
July 11, 2018
We now have Project Fear putting it about that the Government is going to stock pile food in case of a ‘no deal’. This is totally unscrupulous.
July 11, 2018
TPP? No thanks. Trump did away with that option days into his Presidency.
For me, the TPP is an extension of the EU. We would not control our outcome signing that.
I do not trust May over the “no deal” option. I believe she made her plans with the EU aware of all her plans. Thus, the EU would agree to her plan.
As it stands, “No deal” is like giving a dog a bone housed in a glass case. The EU would rather not have no deal.
That said, I doubt the May deal will get the amount of votes. to go forward with her plan.
Speaking of votes, does parliament get to vote on no deal and do we go round in circles until parliament is happy with a deal?
July 11, 2018
Spot on, but the present government is oblivious. Do you think that Dominic Raab will be able to put some drive behind preparations for no deal?
July 11, 2018
Iām feel conflicted on current matters. No deal would be great but will the HOC with itās Remain domination allow that to happen as opposed to bundling us into the EEA and claiming that the will of the people has been served. Listen to the re-emphasis from TM about how the Chequers agreement forfills the will of the people, (a sure sign that they know it doesnāt). DDs and BoJoās resignations where necessary but perhaps itās also good to have genuine Brexiteers like Gove and Fox still on the inside. Further intransigence from the EU plus recent events will make further concessions harder, hopefully.
I hope a no confidence vote is avoided for now as TM will win it and be immune from another for a year. Far better to have it hanging there in case further concessions are made which opinion polls Iām sure will show as unpopular concentrating the minds of backbench MPs.
Letās face it this sell out has been on the cards since the offset. Needs MPs like our host to play their cards v cleverly and in unison. Good luck.
July 11, 2018
I am hoping and praying for No Deal. It is now our only hope for a clean exit from the EU, something that was promised in the Conservatives’ election manifesto but is not being delivered. However, Mrs May is now using every trick on the book to keep us shackled to the EU. It is useless to expect a clean departure from the EU as long as she remains in charge.
I am one of the many who will not vote Conservative again until their policy is to leave the EU properly and they have a leader who is actually committed to that policy rather than working against it.
July 11, 2018
The two main objections o r fears of a “No Deal” seem to be the NI border issue and maintaining Just-In-Time supply lines to EU27. I can’t speak for the first matter but on JIT there are several things our aerospace and car manufacturers could do:
1 increase sourcing from UK suppliers as you say
2 hold more stock to mitigate against any import delays while trade settles down
3 for Airbus in Chester, point to Boeing’s Dreamliner supply chains with Japan and Italy as examples of how they get it right without any issues, apparently
July 11, 2018
Wow.
A WTO trade deal is the ābenchmark.ā Really?
The actual benchmark is EU membership.
Your Brexit has to at least match all the benefits of EU membership.
It has to fix the few problems of EU membership.
It has to make everything better – or at least the same.
And it has to make nothing worse.
You make the fundamental mistake of assuming that your average Leave voter will be happy with Brexit even if it makes their life worse – which in many cases it will.
Letās see how that works out for you as an electoral strategy.
July 12, 2018
Like most remainers Andy, you are fixated by trade.
It is about independence, regaining power over our courts, our law making, our money, our taxation policies, our borders and government.
Yes trade is important but it isn’t the only thing.
July 12, 2018
Edward2
Andy doesn’t have a clue about trade or business either. He’s never run a business thats for sure
July 11, 2018
JR spot on again with this article, and what a strong case he makes. What a pity that any cabinet ministers who support Brexit are now roped in to supporting Mrs May’s Chequers Brexit aims instead, and presumably will not be allowed to say any of the above without being required to resign. Gove, Fox, Leadsom and co. are now all victims of their own enfeeblement; I have not a shred of sympathy for them.
Despite JR making such a strong case, my deep worry is that the Remainer MP’s – by far the majority in the House – will still try to delay the A50 date in March next year rather than allow a no deal Brexit. I can see all their efforts going in to this, starting late this year, with the pressure mounting thereafter. Unless the public mood shifts strongly away from them, expect to see a real fight by Remainers to get the EU to agree to delaying our departure date, with all sorts of arguments as to why it is preferable over going on to WTO. What we have had so far has just been a phoney war. The real fight to leave is only just beginning.
July 11, 2018
One thing we can be certain of if the master of chaos trump persists there will be little or no WTO left..a bull in a china shop..for sure
July 11, 2018
May and her Remainer chums will celebrate loudly when they win the day but will then be dismayed by the appearance of a populist alternative party which will sweep them away in the medium term, as happened in France for example. This could be UKIP under Farage, or something entirely new.
July 11, 2018
You will just have to accept that the left has taken over the Tory party fully now and even if there was some salt of Brexit, things are going to change.
July 11, 2018
A wishy washy liberal elite have taken over all our main parties. Political candidate selection in all the parties has gone badly haywire, and they are all selecting a narrow set of views far removed from what the vast majority of ordinary people think. The whole system has become a joke. The people are being woken from their apathy and will not put up with the extreme nonsense which has recently been exposed.
July 11, 2018
Excellent article as always. John Redwood is a pleasure to read and listen to. An oasis of Brexit in a desert of Remoan.
July 11, 2018
What I mean is, managing the long-term decline of the UK is their top priority of left of the Tory party, all that they tell you are complete falsehoods.
July 11, 2018
Why are the letters not to the 1922 committee? Brexiteers are once again failing to build up the necessary momentum and to have a joint plan. Next week wonāt do because the longer things are dragged out the more likely that anger at the Chequers plan will fade and you will be distracted by some side issue.
July 11, 2018
May ignored Trump’s handshake. There is nothing more offensive.
July 11, 2018
Trump will be around far longer than that disgrace, and lack of grace, May
July 11, 2018
I missed that but am waiting for him to tell her in public what he thinks of her idea of democracy.
July 11, 2018
JR, I watched todayās meeting of the Exiting the EU Committee and here is an interesting snippet about the Irish border from the evidence given by Professor Michael Dougan of Liverpool University:
https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/c4605524-9fcf-4397-8a33-039ea450aef7?in=10:30:39&out=10:31:21
ā… it would be highly problematic in WTO terms to not police your own customs border …ā
Well, we could police the border, and collect tariffs, and so on, but not necessarily at the border and not in such a way that we created any new impediment to the free flow of people and goods across the border.
We would do what the WTO expressly requires us to do and establish a risk management system:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/25/trade-wars-and-the-car-industry/#comment-942717
and then take proportionate measures to effectively police the border, but away from the border, while keeping the border just as open as it is now.
However according to Professor Dougan the present open border is unacceptable:
ā… also we would endanger our own public interest if we had simply an open border where goods and so on could flow into the country unchecked and unsupervised, itās not in the public interest of the United Kingdom to have a border like that … ā
I was astonished to hear that as we have had exactly that kind of border for a quarter of a century now, and unless we think that after we have left the EU the Irish will suddenly start breaking EU law to send across truckloads of illegal rubbish there is no immediate reason why we should change anything.
Perhaps we should ask the Irish government:
āOnce we have left the EU, will you still be complying with EU law as now, or should we prepare for truckloads of illegal rubbish to start coming across the border?ā
July 11, 2018
It’s obviously a done-deal. Mrs May cleared it with Frau Merkel even before sher let her cabinet into the secret. What a farce.
July 11, 2018
I would love to read what you have to say on this, reported in the Guardian this evening:
“Her Majestyās Revenue & Customs said on Wednesday that it would cost businesses an extra Ā£17bn to Ā£20bn a year in administration if they were obliged to fill out customs declarations forms after Brexit.
HMRCās chief executive, Jon Thompson, told the public accounts select committee that there were around 100,000 businesses with no experience at all of filling out customs declarations forms with more than 50 data fields.”
(‘Whitehallās āpottyā plan to keep NI lights on if no Brexit deal’)
July 12, 2018
Couldn’t HMRC design a form which declared that the item complies with all 50 of the fields and is the same as items the day before we left the EU. Ones box to be tick and sign. But that is not how they work, so let’s have 50 boxes to tick.
July 12, 2018
Then the obvious answer is for the government not to require them to fill out customs decalaration forms after Brexit if they are not filling them out now.
July 11, 2018
You’ll never get the Trans Pacific Partnership past the UK public.
We are not leaving the EU just be enslaved by that piece of nonsense.
We are supposed to be leaving to be free not enslaved in more corporate chains. What is it about governments being held captive that you like so much ?
All I can say is good luck.
July 11, 2018
It seems probable that the majority of the British people WILL leave the EU on 29/03/19, with or without a British Government. How that works out will be interesting to experience, serious preparations should be urgently contemplated and not discussed widely in advance.
July 11, 2018
Im certain that May and her superiors have no intention of allowing us to get out of the EU so neatly.
No deal is clearly not an option.
They’ll do anything to prevent that.
Look how some poweful shadowy bureaucrats have made sure Trump doesn’t meet with Farage … they’re determined to have the UK remain.
The show’s been running too long to let anyobe change it. Too much money and power has been built up to allow any sort of capitulation.
I hope England loses the football. Then people will be extra annoyed when they wake up to what’s been sneaked behind their backs.
July 11, 2018
Another busy day for you, working overtime in order to pile WTO costs and burdens on UK businesses. You haven’t a clue what type of Brexit the 17.4 million voted for. Have you asked them?
Do you believe the country is in a good state after two years of total political chaos? It could be two or three more if we leave without a deal. To leave with no deal requires more political chaos to make it happen. The fact that you think it’s worthwhile shows that not only are you deluded, but completely reckless…and self-destructive. A chaotic Brexit will drive companies away and increase calls for a second referendum. Your average GCSE student could work that out.
July 12, 2018
It is much better than your project fear predicted.
Recession?
No
Higher unemployment?
No
Less people in work?
No
Exports down?
No
Punishment budget costing each of us thousands?
No
Exodus of people out of the UK back to EU?
No
The EU expelling Brits from places like Spain?
No
Apology from any remainer for their lies?
No
July 12, 2018
Germany calling, Germany calling … thanks to Redwood your country is in chaos, London has been obliterated, why not face up to reality and capitulate …
July 12, 2018
Rees Mogg is telling people who want Brexit to join their local Tory party and change it from within, I am sorry to tell him that that won’t work.
Tory party HQ pick the people out who you can choose from to go to parliament if elected, you cannot choose your own person to run around the street for.
Sometimes HQ allow the grassroots to pick their own leader but this is rare and will not be allowed at the next leadership contest, the Tory party rulebook is designed to keep party grassroots out of all decision making in the party, sometimes they ask you which policies you like see and vote on a list, that about it.
To choose your own MPs for parliament at the grassroots level, you would have cut out Tory party HQ all together.
July 12, 2018
Ho and don’t forget to throw away the Tory party rule book.
July 12, 2018
The UK has next to no clout: 52% of our trade is with the EU or through EU trade deals all which fall away on “No deal”. Germany exports to the UK are a whole 6% !!!!!
No deal is worse for the UK by a factor of about 10 !
“No deal” is a pretty big gamble and leap into the unknown, which if not pulled off results in a Corbyn government.
July 13, 2018
60% according to another EU loyalist writing in our local paper.
After 45 years of exclusive control of trade policy the EU has still failed to provide us with trade deals covering 40% our trade, are you proud of that?