The WTO global trading model and Mr Barnier – time for the media to mend its language

There is a lot of bad and misleading language used about Brexit. Apparently Mr Barnier is about to embark on his own version of Project Fear, claiming the so called “No Deal” option will be difficult. The UK government will  make sure all is ready to depart without a Withdrawal Agreement if necessary. Why would the UK want to sign such a one sided Withdrawal Agreement anyway? What is Mr Barnier offering to make it worth our while?

Let me attempt to adjust the language to be more  balanced and descriptive.

“No Deal” is the WTO global trading option. Far from being without trading rules and without a working system for importing and exporting, the UK would rely on the WTO system for its EU trade just as it relies on that system for the bulk of its trade today which is conducted with non EU states.

“Crash out” are the words often used by Remain to describe leaving without paying the EU £39bn for the privilege of leaving. As we do not owe them any money, most people would call that just leaving, not crashing out. We will not crash, and will have lots more cash.

“Fall off the cliff edge” is another fatuous phrase they use. There is no cliff edge. Planes will fly and lorries will move through ports the day after we leave just as they did the day before. We will carry on trading and travelling, investing and being tourists in each other’s countries, as we do today in numerous non EU countries.

 

The EU talks about a “disorderly Brexit” if we leave without a Withdrawal Agreement. That means we leave without paying which annoys them but is good for us. The EU will find that people, companies and global rules will work just fine. The continental exporters to the UK will make sure they can still sell to us as they sell to other countries not in the EU. There is nothing disorderly about the way EU states trade with non EU states.

The use of this pejorative language is silly and misleading. The proponents of the EU say they wish to defend the international rules based system. Presumably their beloved EU does just that. In which case, as a law abiding member of the World Trade Organisation, the EU will not be able to discriminate against the UK after we have left and will not be able to impose new additional tariff or non tariff barriers. The EU has to treat us as it treats all other most favoured nations under WTO rules.

As the bulk of the UK’s trade with the EU is imports, I assume even Mr Barnier will understand they need continued decent access to the UK market. The good news for them is we are offering that, as long as it is reciprocal and within WTO rules.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

293 Comments

  1. Steve
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:15 am | Permalink

    Most of these descriptions are peddled by the BBC – which thinks we are too dumb not to realise it’s anti English bias.

    • oldtimer
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:15 am | Permalink

      How true. The BBC’s Europe Editor was saying this last night. We would risk crashing out, planes would not fly, etc etc. Project Fear, EU Commission edition, is about to be launched. We heard it first on the BBC.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:59 am | Permalink

        Why does May’s government do nothing about this blatant bias at the BBC. Are they not supposed to be impartial? One assume May wants this blatant bias. It was very clear that Cameron was a wrong’un when he appointed Lord Patten to be Chair the BBC trust. What a total disaster that was. See his interview on Newsnight yesterday for absurd bias!

        Of 4,275 guests on Today between 2005 and 2015 who talked about the EU, only 132 were Brexiteers.

        Not just bias here but they are clearly left wing, anti-real science (with their climate alarmism agenda), pro big government, ever higher taxes, ever larger government, pro the human rights agenda and pro more regulation of everything, anti-car/truck, anti-plane, pro greencrap subsidies …..

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

          A behind the scenes shot today showed that the magazine of choice at the BBC’s Daily Politics is the left-wing publication “Prospect”, which the supposedly Tory Baroness Wheatcroft chose as the medium for her rallying call to thwart Brexit shortly after the referendum …

      • Hope
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:19 am | Permalink

        JR, I am not sure what leavers have achieved? It appears you have let May off the hook, again, to promote her White paper this summer to further deceive the public. Surely none of you believe her word hence the need for written legislative changes to her White paper. The changes did not go far enough, why should the U.K. Follow the EU in employment, environment and much more after we leave? It betrays what she said in her Lancaster speech.

        May has still not been nailed for showing and or seeking approval from Merkel to her Whitempaper. Why not? No question at PMQs.

        You seem unable to grasp the public do not trust and have come to despise her for her underhand lying ways. May is toxic. The dishonest remain civil service who want to hide ties and costs to the EU from the public will not go in recess.

      • Stephen Priest
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

        You forgot to mention the BBC’s main news story this morning. After March 19th 2019 every will become extremely racist and hate crime will burn across the entire nation.

    • Christine
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

      I’ve just written to the BBC Jeremy Vine show to complain after he told listeners we wouldn’t be able to buy bananas in January if we left with No Deal. The UK imports the majority of its bananas from Colombia, Panama, Guatemala, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Ghana and the Dominican Republic; none of which are in the EU. Project fear is getting really stupid.

      • bigneil
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        Don’t worry. With Global warming we will be able to grow our own soon.

  2. Nig l
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:22 am | Permalink

    The bad news. Economic limbo, vassalage, timid, complete climb down, regulatory rule taken, didn’t even look at possible solutions, 40 billion for nothing etc and misled voters.

    Everything most of your contributors and indeed all Leave voters and I suspect your self have been saying for months.

    The question is ‘will she change substantively?’ We all know the answer. No. It will be more smoke and mirrors.

    The question is Dr Redwood. When will ‘you’ decide to put up or shut up. Do you really think she will ever regain sufficient credibility to attract voters. I don’t.

    • eeyore
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:34 am | Permalink

      There is betrayal in the air. This government is not to be trusted. Chequers is collusive and EU protests at it carry no weight.

      It’s not too late to tell your MP or Central Office where you stand. And not too late to do the one thing that would stop treachery in its tracks – organise a mass movement of ordinary Leavers. Leave leaders should meet to organise one ASAP. It needs to be up and running with a membership of millions before Parliament resumes.

      • Chris
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:55 am | Permalink

        Reports suggest that “rebels” are now back on board after a positive 1922 Committee meeting and judging by one of the reported comments they peered over and then stepped back from the brink. May will get her/the EU’s way and we will be heading for vassal state option.
        https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/990979/brexit-news-theresa-may-boris-johnson
        Did you say something, Boris? May IGNORES Johnson rant as rebels ‘COME TO THEIR SENSES’ (not my capitals).

        • Hope
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:27 am | Permalink

          What has Robbins been negotiating position, his and May’s White paper principles to remain in under other names and new treaties hence why so many capitulations or anything remotely like Davis’s paper? Were the EU and Robbins both deceiving Davis when he popped along now and again?

          JR, please let us know.

          • NickC
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

            Hope, There were two White Papers – Robbins’ and DExEU’s. Clearly Robbins will have known about DExEU’s; and May must have authorised both.

            Unless DExEU were working pointlessly – and known it – it is clear that DExEU, Davis, Baker, and Johnson did not know about Robbins’ WP. May has not just given us Remain in all but name, she has deceived even her own Ministers.

        • alan jutson
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:01 am | Permalink

          Chris

          Thought Boris summed it up perfectly in his speech, what is being proposed is worse than a WTO deal.

          We have negotiated with ourselves and lost, how incompetent is that.

          • Peter Wood
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

            GOOD NEWS! Seems the EU want a WTO only deal also. Time to stop wasting time and energy on that “close and special partnership” (that ridiculous PM phrase seems to have been dropped) and prepare for WTO only and spend the £39 Billion at home on those most affected.

        • Hope
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:17 am | Permalink

          What action is being taken against The twelve who voted to put forward an amendment to keep the U.K. In the customs union? This is in direct refusal to leave the EU, against manifesto, govt policy and a betrayal of their voters. Soubry, Morgan, Wollaston and Grieve have leave constitutioncies. This is voting with Corbyn, yet your party tries to scare us that we might get him! Their associations do not have any choice but to deselect them. JR, why has May taken no action against them?

          • hefner
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

            Hope, you cannot have it both ways. Indeed Soubry, Morgan, Wollaston and Grieve have Leave constituencies, but the referendum vote was not based on constituencies. Would you be so vocal saying the Thames valley was largely Remain so JR should support Remain. A bit of thinking would not hurt, you know.

          • NickC
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

            Hope, Because May is Remain?

      • libertarian
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

        I miss the good old days of a “stalking horse” that normally flushed out the real contenders . We have a complete vacuum of leadership in the UK at the moment. No one with any bottle is prepared to take the chance and risk losing in pursuit of their principles. The funny thing is if Corbo got elected theres no way he would stay in any part of the EU as it would kibosh his nationalisation plans

        Anyway Corbo doesn’t actually want to be PM, he’s spent his entire life being a “student” protester . He’s never run anything, he couldn’t run a whelk stall. Trust me on this Corbo will never be PM no matter what happens with voting.

        • alan jutson
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian

          “Student protester”

          That is exactly a family members description of Mr Corbyn which they have had for years.

          There are one or two other names, but this seems to sum up his character better than any other, as he has never really changed his views from those of his youth, so at least he is consistent, well until it comes to the EU of course and now since he is leader it has changed.

          • Hope
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

            Hef, one of the dullest replies you have ever given. Of course it is not based on constituencies. It is based on their amendment to stay in the customs union against govt policy, manifesto they stood to be elected on, referendum and last general election. They have failed every pledge, paper, policy they stood individually or collectively on to get elected. They have got to go or be ousted. They even double crossed their alleged deal with No. 10 if you read S Hammond’s email.

            What is that phrase you use about research? Dear dear.

        • Tad Davison
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

          I’m not so sure lib, Corbyn would like to be PM but he knows he would face revolt after revolt from the Blairites who would do anything to depose him with one of their own. They see their present leader as someone who could deliver that victory (albeit by default as the current occupant of No 10 is so unpopular) so for now, tge Blairites give Corbyn his head. But make no mistake, they are sitting mantice-like and ready to consume him.

          The problem we have is the make-up of the UK parliament. They gave the people the right to choose to stay in the EU or leave it, but didn’t like their decision, so for me, this is a constitutional issue. If we had a written one, it might have prevented all these duplicitous con-men (and women) trying to deny us by chicanery and sleight of hand what we voted for.

          The only way out of this is a new Tory leader with the right pedigree. I’d prefer somebody in the Philip Davies image. Somebody who has the guts to take on these greasy whimps who look the same and think the same. He would have lots of resonance with ordinary people who make up the bulk of the electorate, but the Tories don’t like such people holding any power. It threatens their ethos you see, even though the country has moved on.

          Tad

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          Your Honda story is a distortion of the facts, with the UK out of the Customs Union “No Deal” of some ort there will be more than 60.000 further documents to fill out. (estimated.) and this will lead to delays of 24 hours or more for the just in time delivery system. According to the FT.

          This is not just a new IT system, stick to the facts.

          • Ian wragg
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

            That would be the rapidly remain Financial Times that prints all project fear stories.
            Honda produces cars for the whole world from Swindon so they can source parts as well although the majority are UK manufactured.

          • libertarian
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Dunno what century you live in old boy but here in the 21st century we dont do “paperwork” we do computer systems for the transfer, transport and export of goods…. Have you never heard of CHIEF? TIR ? etc

            You also seem to be completely clueless about what a Just In Time system does and how it works. My goodness hans you are really making yourself look silly. Heres a clue for the hard of thinking IF your delivery was to be delayed regularly by 24 hours then , wait for it hans this is startling stuff, you call it off 24 hours earlier…. Wow

            Oh and as far as the FT is concerned did you not read the letter from the manufacturing export company chief 2 weeks ago? He gave a complete breakdown of how the systems work and although 80% of his output is exported he estimated there would be almost no real knockoff effect, it involved just ticking some extra boxes on the software .

          • Edward2
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

            It is not a fact it is a prediction by the Brexit supporting FT
            More Project Fear

          • Hope
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

            Nick. C, I know there were two papers, what I want to know is the principles from which paper Robbins has been negotiating on or was he in cahoots with the EU pretending to Davis he was negotiating on his terms rather than the hidden one.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          You also told us that Merkel was finished, so well done?

      • Christine
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:30 am | Permalink

        You are right. It’s time for the people to make their voices heard. It’s the only way to turn this shambles around. Write to your MPs, No 10, party offices. Get out and protest. The prospect of losing votes is the only thing they will listen to now.

        • libertarian
          Posted July 21, 2018 at 11:12 am | Permalink

          Christine

          Writing to your MP is totally pointless , they can easily ignore single letters. What we need is to ( politely) tell them on social media that they need to change and to get as many RT, shares and Likes as possible.

      • Christine
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

        Here’s the contact details to write to Theresa May at Downing Street https://email.number10.gov.uk/
        I’ve written to her and my local Conservative Office to complain that the White Paper isn’t what I voted for.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:01 am | Permalink

      Indeed May is incapable of change wrong on almost every issue and duplicitous with it!

  3. Mark B
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:36 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    What does Barnier care ? They don’t even care about the countries that are remaining in the EU.

    Of course there will be disruption. And it does not matter whether we leave by a negotiated settlement or WTO or even FLEXIT things will be tough.

    I voted Leave in the full knowledge that should there be an economic slow down I would be amongst the first to suffer. I voted Leave not because of immigrants, more money for the NHS / increased public spending, or because of trade. I voted Leave because as Sir Michael Cane said;

    “I would sooner be a poor man and master of my own destiny, than rich servant and slave to another’s “

    When the Republic of Ireland broke away from the UK in 1922 the UK never demanded that they keep in regulatory alignment with the UK. No special demands were made upon them. No threats. All I ask is that the EU and the rEU27 respect my decision and the decision of 17.4 million people irrespective of the consequences. Not much to ask.

    • Mike Stallard
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:22 am | Permalink

      And Italy?
      And Greece?
      And Spain?

      What if we get a special treatment? Will they want to leave the EU too?

      M. Barnier represents a technocracy which is arrogant, self centred and proud. that is why he is making these noises. He means it. He is not in business and he just doesn’t care.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:03 am | Permalink

        Here is the March 7th 2018 statement to which Steve Baker referred:

        http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/03/07/statement-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-draft-guidelines-on-the-framework-for-the-future-relationship-with-the-uk/

        “Statement by President Donald Tusk on the draft guidelines on the framework for the future relationship with the UK”

        “I propose that we aim for a trade agreement covering all sectors and with zero tariffs on goods. Like other free trade agreements, it should address services. And in fisheries, reciprocal access to fishing waters and resources should be maintained.”

      • billR
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:15 am | Permalink

        Mike Stallard..why are you saying all of these nasty things about Barnier and the EU ..Barnier is just the civil servant doing a specific job and talks about the future have not started yet..so how do you know about Barnier and what noises he is making..I have not seen him on TV or anywhere since the June meeting with the EU Council? So we have not even concluded the divorce agreements yet and until these are finalised there can be no talks about the future..no real talks in any case..

        • Mike Wilson
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

          So we have not even concluded the divorce agreements yet and until these are finalised there can be no talks about the future

          Why. If a sensible future trade agreement was agreed, in principle, FIRST, then we’d be more accommodating about the divorce agreement.

          As it is we have offered a fantastic divorce agreement for NOTHING. Yet! If we get NOTHING hopefully the divorce agreement will be revisited.

          They should have been AGREED TOGETHER!

          • Jason wells
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

            Mike Wilson..truth is the EU do not want any meaningful agreement..they say that we want to cherry pick but it is they who really want to have their cake and eat it. Although they are not saying it aloud but..i believe WTO rules will suit them very well..that way they get to dictate terms to us without a special FTA getting in the way

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:55 am | Permalink

      Actually it seems to be our own people who are imposing those demands on us.

      In his speech yesterday Steve Baker pointed out:

      “Finally, I

      “propose that we aim for a trade agreement covering all sectors and with zero tariffs on goods. Like other free trade agreements, it should address services. And in fisheries, reciprocal access to fishing waters and resources should be maintained.”

      In saying that, I have just stuck very closely, with some variations, to quoting President Donald Tusk’s statement on the draft guidelines on the framework for the future relationship with the UK, issued on 7 March 2018.

      I have been astonished recently to learn just how many colleagues had not noticed that offer which was placed before us—a wide-ranging offer including free trade and no tariffs in all sectors, including services. We have to ask why we have not taken this path. I have concluded from my experience that it is first and foremost because the establishment, the governing class of this country, does not believe in Brexit. The governing class believes in EU membership and is trying to deliver something as close as possible to the EU—not the EEA and the customs union because it is known that such an arrangement would not be accepted as leaving, but something like the customs union and EEA-lite, if I might call it that. That is what is before us in the Chequers White Paper.”

      Reply There are no tariffs on services anyway!

      • Know-Dice
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:35 am | Permalink

        Denis, part of the problem is that too many in power say “we can’t propose that because the EU blah blah blah” Weak & Wobbly and her colleagues need to “grow a pair” and stick to the red lines that were put forward at the beginning of this process.
        As is said elsewhere on this blog “it’s the uncertainty that is causing businesses problems not the end deal (or no deal)”

        And to quote Andrea Jenkyns “Can the Prime Minister inform the House, at was point it was decided that Brexit means Remain?”…

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:13 am | Permalink

          The EU won’t give us a good deal,WTO rules stop this and that, the government’s own assessment shows how disastrous it would be, our top priority must be to allow 0.1% of our GDP to be driven across the Irish border like now, just as if there was no border, and vice versa, and even though we’ve let stuff flow in unchecked for a quarter of a century we would have to start checking the same stuff the day after we left the EU without having agreed to follow all EU rules on goods in perpetuity … and far from contradicting any of this rubbish the government makes its own contributions to the constant stream of rubbish, day after day, and why should that be?

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:58 am | Permalink

      Dear Mark–Very good point about Ireland breaking away

      • alan jutson
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:47 am | Permalink

        Leslie

        Same could be said when we gave all other Countries back their own independence the only tie to us is the commonwealth and whilst nice to have that relationship it is voluntary.
        How ironic that we will be less free under Chequers, than our once colonies are now.

    • Nick
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:00 am | Permalink

      Some time ago, I flew from Dublin to Southampton. On arrival in the UK, there was no passport check. In fact, there were no Border Force officers present for this flight within the ‘Common Travel Area’. I would be happier, and feel safer, if the CTA would be ditched. ROI is no friend of this country.

      • Jason wells
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

        ROI was a part of this kingdom for 800 years although the people were never given a referendum about the matter. So think they will manage ok with or without friends like Nick

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:25 am | Permalink

      There is no need for an economic slowdown. We could reduce the size of the state, lower taxes, deregulate, cut import taxes, sort out the lack of competition in banks, go for early hire and fire, cheap non green crap energy, relax planning, have some real leadership & pro growth vision ……. but alas we have May and tax to death Hammond.

      They both want to stick to the failed European Model and what they idiotically refer to as “maintain high standards” (remain uncompetitive in the world due to over the top and often totally daft regulations and a bloated state).

    • Ian wragg
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

      The latest EU ploy seems to be unilaterally extending Article 50. May has already signed up to an extension of of MEP tenure. Doesn’t Parliament or general public get any say on these things.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

        It requires the consent of all the parties, and the UK government would need to win a vote in each of the Houses of Parliament before it could give its consent; otherwise the UK would notionally still be in the EU but without the necessary domestic legislation, ECA72, still being in force, it having been repealed on March 29th 2019 according to the withdrawal Act as passed. However there would be no problem getting the Lords to agree to defer the “exit day”, indeed they would very willingly defer it forever, and the government could probably get the opposition MPs to help vote through the resolution against opposition from some Tory MPs.

  4. Lifelogic
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    Exactly.

    You say “The UK government will make sure all is ready to depart without a Withdrawal Agreement if necessary” well will they? Under T May and this hugely remainer civil service? One imagines it will work about as well as the new rail timetable or the dire NHS, or the absurdly complex tax system we have from P Hammond.

    Lord Patten on Newsnight last night was using all this absurd language:- “chaos and crashing out”, Cameron should not have given the referendum, the Consrvative Party’s “Nationalist right was so rampant”, “so much animosity”, Boris is “careless with the truth”, “the Brexit lies and fog of truth”, Mogg is one of “the smaller Trump figures”, “not a single member of the Foreign service who did not rejoice when Boris resigned”.

    The main fog of truth comes from people like Heath, Pattean, Major, Blair, Cameron plus the appallingly pro EU, left wing BBC who mainly created this whole mess by giving away the UK’s democracy without proper authority from the people and then burying the country more and more deeply into the bureaucratic lunacy that is the EU. Destroying any real democracy in the process.

    “May inherited a mess” says the BBC interviewer. No she was handed a huge opportunity and made a compete pigs ear of it. Cameron also was given a huge opportunity and did the same for want of a working compass. She did this as she is clearly a daft Libdem/socialist, an interventionist robot with zero vision or leadership skills. She remains a remainer. Brexit to May clearly means ‘change the names and just pretend we have left’. She even thinks the voters with fall for it.

    May’s government has proposed an appalling deal even worse than remaining in the EU. This is not remotely what she promised it would be a compete disaster.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:56 am | Permalink

      The Times reports that:-

      “Theresa May will go on a tour of Britain this summer in an attempt to convince sceptical Tory members to back her plan for Brexit.”

      She would be wasting her time, she will convince almost no one. But at least she might discover the huge scale of unrest and anger among grassroots Conservatives over her absurd “lets change the names & pretend we have left the EU plan”. Perhaps they will also explain to her that we are taxed and regulated far, far too much already for largely dire or worthless public services. Taxes need to be reduced and simplified from here not increased yet further.

      Hammond too has got things totally wrong, just like May. He is strangling the economy with over taxation, over regulation, tax complexity, attacks on the self employed and restrictive bank lending controls plus a lack of any real competition in banking.

      They both need to go as soon as possible.

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:03 am | Permalink

      Dear Lifelogic–Almost any way forward (Norway, Canada plus etc) though appalling would still be heaps better than the dog’s breakfast secretly foisted on us at Chequers

      • Nick
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:04 am | Permalink

        A draft FTA, modelled on CETA, should have been delivered with the Article 50 notification. The EU should have been told that we expected to have an FTA agreed within 12 months. If not, we would walk. The EU has sought to put time pressure on us, so we would cave. And May has fallen for it.

        • getahead
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

          May has not fallen for it. She is working with the EU, to remain in the EU.

  5. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:45 am | Permalink

    On this website, among the believers in the glorious global Great Britain of the imminent future, language has already changed over time. This site has always “known” to have the far stronger negotiation position, based on the flawed logic of “they sell us more goods then we sell them”. (nobody ever got the idea of thinking in percentage terms). Now that the German carmakers and Italian prosecco producers haven’t rushed to their governments to tell them to agree bilateral deal with the UK, the language has changed into “continental self harm”. Brexit (i.e. the UK) causing continental self harm is an interesting use of words and interpretation, just like any UK adversity could easily be explained as wrong choices by the BOE or austerity bent government decisions. New scapegoats, after the boycotting civil service will undoubtedly be found, if things don’t turn out according what the brexiteers believers foretell.

    • Dave Andrews
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:18 am | Permalink

      If all you say was accurate and I was Michel Barnier, I would say stuff the UK, it’s not worth continuing the negotiations. But that isn’t what’s happening. He’s still there.
      Why? Because the EU has much to lose as well without a mutually beneficial deal, and especially the money.
      Look at it this way. Suppose it wasn’t us who was leaving the UK. Suppose it was Germany. What would be the rhetoric then? It would be the end of the EU, the end of the Euro.
      Our GDP is 75% that of Germany. Don’t tell me that doesn’t matter. It matters a lot.

      • ChrisS
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:59 am | Permalink

        You are right, Dave, the EU’s trade with us is significant and really does matter but what is driving Merkel to risk the future prospects of her car industry, and much else, is the overwhelming fear that if we are seen to get a good deal and prosper, others will follow us out.

        They aren’t just concerned about it, they are truly terrified and it’s driving everything they do and say.

        Instead of making the EU so attractive for other members to stay, (admittedly a bit difficult to do if you are Italy whose economy is being screwed by the Euro), they have decided to demonstrate via their treatment of us that it will be almost impossible for any other member state to leave.

        It’s very much like Merkel’s former country, the DDR, building a wall to keep their citizens in.

        We therefore aren’t seeing any kind of sensible negotiating strategy from the EU side and it’s deeply upsetting that their appalling attitude is being supported and sustained by Remainers here who care so little about their own country that they are siding firmly with their friends in the Brussels establishment.

        • ChrisS
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:04 am | Permalink

          PS : It’s rarely mentioned that Merkel was brought up in the repressive Soviet-style dictatorship that was the DDR after her family decided to move from Hamburg to the DDR when she was an infant. That must have been a pretty unique move at the height of the Cold War.

          She obviously toed the party line as she was allowed to go to University and obtained a good job as a research scientist, eventually entered politics. In 1990 she even became a spokesperson for the DDR government in its final months before reunification.

          Given this background, is it really that surprising that her attitude is always to try to control everything and ruthlessly deal with anything/anyone she sees as a threat ?

          PPS What is wrong with Captcha this morning ?

        • margaret howard
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

          ChrisS

          ” is the overwhelming fear that if we are seen to get a good deal and prosper, others will follow us out”

          Makes you wonder why we begged to join in the first place! We were the ‘sick man of Europe’ and it was Germany who sponsored us against de Gaulle’s repeated ‘NONs’. Bet they regret it now.

          As for Frau Merkel’s father’s move to East Germany – he was a protestant pastor and they go where their church sends them. You prefer conspiracy theories? Hard to believe they groomed the then 6 months old Angela to become a Soviet stooge in 21th century Germany.

      • Tomtit
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

        Dave Andrews..In case you don’t know yet..Barnier is still there and will be there until the bitter end..what is at stake now is the legacy and how all of this debacle will be written up for history..

      • Andy
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

        He’s still there because he’s an adult. An actual grown up who deals with actual reality and actual facts.

        Unlike the ranting Brexiteer pensioners who, despite their advanced years, behave like petulant toddlers.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

          How old is Barnier?

        • Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

          Oh, Andy. Another example of engaging your fingers before your brain is in gear. Petulant toddler, Andy?

          How many more times, Andy? We are NOT all ”pensioners”. Many of us have young families for whose sake and in whose interests we voted Leave. We are not all self-seeking, narrow-minded, flat-earthlings like you timid little people, in thrall to their EU masters, who think they are well-informed if they click ”like” on Facebook.

        • libertarian
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

          Andy

          1) Barnier is 67, he’s a pensioner

          2) He’s never had a real job outside of politics

          3) He’s a Gaullist, Andy that means he’s heavily into French nationalism and patriotism and believes in political power for its own ends

          There is NO reality or facts in an event that hasn’t happened yet

    • Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:24 am | Permalink

      Good thoughts!
      The EU does not do deals which wreck their carefully constructed system.
      Period.

    • Nig l
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:32 am | Permalink

      Not just the contributors to this site, the 17 miilion plus who voted to leave, about the population of your country.

      As for negotiating strengths you have a simplistic view. An economy three times the size of yours I believe, a vast international trading network including a Commonwealth just bursting with opportunity, we export more outside the EU than we do to it, a vast financial centre, the world common language, world leaders in Fintech, one of the great capitals of the world, a permanent seat on the UN, an army that protects small countries like yours.

      Need I go on? You are an admired but small country beholden to the Germans.

      If you lived here you would understand how understandably narrow your view is.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:49 am | Permalink

      This is all economic gobbledygook.
      You really don’t get it.

      We voted for control of our own money, laws and borders, not for control over your Prosecco or German cars. Frankly I don’t care if I never see another German car or glass of Prosecco ever again.

      That is most leave voters’ starting position, and you people just don’t understand that.

      • Helen Taylor
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

        Totally agree with you. A good proportion of the 17.4 million really want control of our Parliament and money back. There are plenty of fine Australian wines out there as well as lots of other non-eu countries producers. As well as lots of other car makers. Why should our Country be dictated to by the unelected officials in the eu. If we were really to stick to the Magna Carta many of politicians of old and some new should be strung up for treason. They handed over our rights to another power. The thing with the new media today mean the public have got easy access to what happens in Government. They will find that they cannot hide devious dealings anymore. The truth will out and the silent majority is starting to become noisy.

        • Bob
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

          “There are plenty of fine Australian wines”

          How much duty do we have to pay to import Aussie wine into the UK?

          • fedupsoutherner
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

            Bob, We already drink Aussie wine in our house and it’s no more expensive than Italian or French wine. Go look in the supermarkets!

          • Bob
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

            @fedupsoutherner

            “We already drink Aussie wine in our house and it’s no more expensive than Italian or French wine.”

            So logically it could be cheaper if we leave the EU and strike an FTA with Australia?

          • getahead
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

            Bob, how much does the British taxpayer pay in contributions to stay in the Single market?
            There’s no such thing as a free lunch.

          • Bob
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:59 am | Permalink

            @getahead

            But the point is, if Australian wine currently (after tariffs are applied) sells for similar prices to French wine, then it should the be cheaper when Britain leaves the EU, assuming we strike an FTA with them.

            One problem though is if France embargoes cheese exports to the UK wine and cheese parties could lose their appeal for those that don’t care for foil wrapped Dairy Lea triangles.

      • Billy Elliot
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:22 am | Permalink

        Sir, do you care about your country becoming poorer and less influential?

        Reply Brexit will help it be richer and more influential.

        • Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

          Project Fear adherent, Mr Elliot? Facebook doesn’t have all the answers, you know.

    • sm
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

      Actually, Peter, if you read Denis Cooper’s clear and well-informed comments, you will see many percentages referred to.

      And there is no need to hunt for scapegoats – the negotiating stance taken by Mrs May and her advisors has been consistently contrary to any common sense option. 2 years ago, I put my house on the market; it was in an excellent position, and was fully modernised, clean and attractively decorated. I didn’t tell the estate agent to accept the lowest price a purchaser was willing to offer, nor did I offer to leave behind every movable or valuable item, nor did I take months to consider every option, since I have bought and sold homes before and knew how to assess such matters. The house sold for a sum significantly over the asking price, within 5 days of it going to the market. Since both my buyer, my estate agent and I all behaved considerately and politely to each other, the whole process was completed to everyone’s satisfaction, with goodwill gestures being made and accepted by both sides to ensure the process went smoothly.

      • Bob
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

        @sm

        “house sold for a sum significantly over the asking price, within 5 days of it going to the market.”

        Theresa May would have offered the buyer a large amount of cash back and agreed to pay the council tax for an indeterminate “transitional period”.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:54 am | Permalink

      PvL – If “percentage terms” was the correct metric then it would have been used.

      I don’t believe that it was, unless of course in the Netherlands when you go to the local supermarket you negotiate for your shopping as a percentage of your salary?

    • Ian wragg
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:10 am | Permalink

      The more you post Peter the more I know it was the correct result to leave.
      Barnier only wants to talk about the Irish border and collapse the whole shooting match.
      As 70% of the Republic exports are to Britain I would be quiet if I were them.
      As for being a rules based organisations except of course Germany and France.
      Freedom is everything.

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

      No. My threat is of one of the leading economies going belly up if not treated fairly. You think Holland is not in range of the fall out ?

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:18 am | Permalink

        Brexit no deal fallout for the Netherlands has been calculated and is managable.
        Thank you for your concern though. 🙂

        • Jagman84
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

          Likewise for the UK. As long as you find an economist not in the pay of Remain, such as the LSE. Enjoy your servitude to Germany.

        • Silence
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

          Yes but the seas are rising all around the EU. Political Climate Chang

        • mancunius
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:44 pm | Permalink

          It is well-known in the Netherlands that refusing to cut a sensible free trade deal would make a severe and lasting dent in your country’s economic growth. And it will bankrupt the EU.
          Your politicians – like those in Brussels – naturally care less about such things. They’ll always get their amenable salaries and pensions out of the ATM marked ‘Dutch taxpayer’.
          As do the 1,000 new customs officials you’ve just compelled yourselves to hire.

          • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 5:10 am | Permalink

            @mancunius: A lasting dent of about 1% of GDP, according to the IMF, reported yesterday (another messenger for brexiteers to shoot? 🙂 🙂 ).
            Your keyword is “sensible” (FTA). Unlike the UK, the EU has experience in forging FTA’s and the UK can hardly be expected to know too much about all the if’s and but’s as has been om ample display in the early phases. Let’s combine this IMF prediction with current GDP growth:
            UK: 1.2% (growth) – 4% = -2.8% (negative growth)
            NL: 2.8% (growth) – 1% = +1.8% (positive growth remaining)
            Of course the Dutch have always shown more internal solidarity to assist sectors most affected by a future hard Brexit.

          • libertarian
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 9:47 am | Permalink

            PvL

            The EU has experience in FTA’s lol yeh each one taking around 10-12 years and still NO FTA with the EU’s 2 biggest markets. Lol you are funny Peter.

        • NickC
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

          PvL, I understand that quite a few Dutch people are rather concerned about being a small country in a large undemocratic technocracy run for the benefit of Germany.

        • Anonymous
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

          The EU has to take a 15% hit on its income then the member nations an £80bn hit on trade, which is disproportionately spread through the EU.

          If Ireland gets tricky over airspace they will not be allowed to fly over ours.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:57 am | Permalink

      Pvl. I am amazed that a country such as yours with all its history is happy to take orders from Germany. The British want their freedom back and if the EU are going to be petty enough to make trade difficult then there are other countries we can go to. We don’t want to be answerable to anyone. Get it?

      • margaret howard
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

        Fedup

        ” After the incorporation of the Netherlands in the French Empire, Britain took over most of the Dutch colonies, with the exception of Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia), Suriname (which they had captured in May 1804), the Dutch Antilles and the trading post at Dejima in Japan.
        Some historians count the wars between Britain and the Batavian Republic and the Kingdom of Holland during the Napoleonic era as the Fifth and Sixth Anglo-Dutch wars.
        Additionally, the Boer Wars, are sometimes considered Anglo-Dutch wars;[citation needed] as the Boers’ Dutch republics in Southern Africa were at war with the British”
        ==

        Don’t think the Germans fought so many wars against them!

        • libertarian
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

          Margaret Howard

          Remind me again how many times the UK invaded and occupied Holland

    • Original Richard
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

      “This site has always “known” to have the far stronger negotiation position, based on the flawed logic of “they sell us more goods then we sell them””

      It is not a question of “strength” in negotiations but of the sheer necessity to leave.

      The fact that we have an £80bn PER YEAR trading deficit with the EU (percentages are irrelevant), as well as paying the second highest membership fee, shows that membership of the EU/SM/CU is not working for us and that unless we make changes we will eventually suffer severe consequenes.

      As a start therefore we need to leave the EU/SM/CU.

    • Nig l
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

      Peter. Despite our differences, best wishes to your women’s hockey team in the World Cup starting at the weekend at our wonderful Olympic venue.

      We look forward to meeting (beating?) you in the Final.

    • NickC
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

      PvL, My language has not changed. I always said the EU would be unreasonable.

  6. DUNCAN
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:47 am | Permalink

    Get rid of the grotesque May and elect a Brexit Tory as our leader as opposed to a non-Tory Europhile

    Get us out of the EU

    Leave won the EU referendum and we demand that this result be implemented

    • Tim Chick
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:12 am | Permalink

      Yes, indeed

    • Old Albion
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:35 am | Permalink

      Well said Duncan.

    • Bob
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:38 am | Permalink

      @Duncan
      Agreed. Mrs May has revealed herself as a Brussels sock puppet, she should be removed from post without further delay.

      We need a Brexit leader that actually believes in Brexit and ideally someone that has at least some understanding of international trade.

      UKIP has many such people, whereas the Tories seem to be top heavy with lawyers and PPE graduates.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:21 am | Permalink

        A change of puppet master might work just as well with less disruption.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

        I am no fan of Quota’s but parliament and indeed the Civil Service do seem to be hugely over weight in Lawyers, PPE, lefty Historians, lefty fake economists & Geography dopes. Could we have a few more numerates, scientists, sensible economists, mathematicians, business people and engineers please. To explain reality to these people.

        Logic, science and reason over emotion please. Lawyers are very good at creating jobs for yet more lawyers. This while producing nothing of value at all and making everyone else poorer.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

          Quotas!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

      Above all a pro Brexit, low tax, pro growth, Tory party is the only way to win the next next election. Anything else will mean UKIP surges back and splits the vote. May is a robotic, electoral liability and a disingenuous, socialist to boot. It will be interesting to hear what Ollie Robbins has to say on timings when he appears before Sir William Cash and the European Scrutiny Committee

      It voters want socialism they will vote for Corbyn and the SNP anyway not May. The Tories have 330 MPs and it is estimated that nearly 250 if these constituencies voted to leave. The gulf between May’s “leave in name only and let’s pretend” and Tory (and indeed many other voters) is massive.

      She must go and very soon.

  7. Elvis junior
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:11 am | Permalink

    If we go to WTO rules then we should get a refund for our capital assets and ECB funding. We can also ask the Irish to repay their banking bailout loan. Who said there was no Brexit dividend?

  8. Lifelogic
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:29 am | Permalink

    Allister Heath is spot on as usual today.

    ‘The only way forward is to follow the course of action advocated by Johnson: a complete reset, followed by a proper, robust attempt at negotiating a “Canada-plus” style of agreement of the sort that was being worked on by the Department for Exiting the European Union before the Remainer putsch.’

    ‘there is still time to save Brexit, but it requires an urgent and complete U-turn from May. The only real political question this summer is whether she has it in her.’

    Except that is it surely clear already that May certainly does not have it in her. She is not even sound on anything else (the economy, employment laws, the self employed, HS2, Hinckley C, Tax levels, climate alarmism, the green crap subsidies, housing ….)

    • graham1946
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

      Yes, Boris made a good well thought out spech. Pity he did not have the courage to stick the knife in. He and Jacob Rees-Mogg are both far too polite to her, thinking she will be won round by reason. She won’t and because of the Remainers in the government we are going to be sold out, just as we all predicted here 2 years ago.

      There may not be enough Brexiteers to remove May, but there are certainly enough to vote down her proposals as has been shown by her ‘victories’ of 6 votes or less and enough to cause a vote of No Confidence or a collapse of the government. The fact that Brexiteers don’t even threaten her, whilst Remainers play dirty is very disappointing and will be tragic for the country for their lack of courage in the short term.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

        She will go very soon unless they really want to bury the party for three plus terms like John Major again.

  9. Richard1
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    Had the govt adopted such language from the start, & been credible in its use, there would probably now be a sensible FTA on the table. But Mrs May has determined not to do that and most unfortunately has swallowed the EU’s and Irish Government’s nonsense on the non issue of the Irish border.

    Perhaps Boris is right and it’s not too late. But for sure, only with a credible walk-way /WTO option is there any prospect of a sensible deal.

    • NickC
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

      Richard1, I always thought that the only way to get a sensible RTA was to walk away first. We should have used international law to abrogate the EU treaties in 12 months and we could have been out since, say, Sept 2017. Even the EU Art50 process could have been telescoped. But it would have required our establishment to have confidence in us. Instead they are still in denial.

    • getahead
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

      Richard, May has not swallowed the Irish border sham, because she is working with (for) the EU. She is using the Irish border sham in order to stay in the EU. Remain that is.

  10. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    JR, back in January on the Andrew Marr show Labour’s Emily Thornberry inadvertently but very helpfully offered a much better formulation than the generalised “no deal” just by narrowing it down to no “trading” deal:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/07/12/what-is-wrong-with-the-chequers-agreement/#comment-946638

    “we have been trading perfectly successfully with the United States for a very long time, they are our biggest trading partner outside the EU without a trading deal anyway.”

    And we do indeed trade successfully, £66 billion imports versus £100 billion exports, and the latter will be about 5% of our GDP as against 12% exported to the rest of the EU; yet the US does not expect us all to obey US federal law in the way that the EU expects us all to obey its quasi- or proto-federal law.

    A point which was completely missed by one Tory MP in the debate yesterday*.

    I suggested back then:

    “I think you should make a note of this, JR, and every time Labour throws David Davis’s foolish “exact same benefits” into your face just throw back these words.”

    but nobody has ever done that.

    * https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-07-18/debates/5FA5E9E4-A4CD-42B4-8CA6-20FE6406A03B/FutureRelationshipBetweenTheUKAndTheEU#contribution-A3D75BC2-2A83-407D-8B58-6CD0AF0FE834

    “I hear what my hon. Friend says, but is it not the case that, whenever we enter into a free trade agreement with another country, we will abide by the rules and regulations that it seeks to apply to imported goods? The fact that we choose to do so is our choice, as made either by the Executive or by Parliament. Whether we do a free trade agreement with the EU, New Zealand or Japan is immaterial. We will always have to follow the third party’s guidelines and meet its requirements in order to export to that country.”

    Yes, but apart from the EU those foreign requirements only have to be met by those who are exporting to those foreign countries, not by every business and organisation and individual in the country, and not necessarily with respect to their other business; if that was the case we would all have to simultaneously obey the laws of the EU, New Zealand and Japan etc even when they were incompatible (as would inevitably occur) and even if we were never exporting anything anywhere.

  11. Lifelogic
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    The duplicitous May/remainer/Civil Service strategy is clearly to totally fail to prepare for a WTO global trading option. They they can force their fake leave in name only proposal on the UK or perhaps extend & delay leaving the EU (probably for ever).

    So why do you think they will seriously prepare for the WTO global trading option? Under May they will surely not do this they will just pretend they are doing.

    • Chris
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:23 am | Permalink

      May, her pro EU Cabinet, her pro EU advisers and her pro EU civil servants are still in charge. Why are Tory Brexiter MPs expecting her to replace the Chequers plan with a Brexit plan? It won’t, and it can’t happen, with that dynamic.

      There seems to be a complete lack of basic common sense in those hoping that May will U-turn. The signs are that she will not go back to the Lancaster House proposals, but will keep up the charade that was going on before. She has demonstrated that she is willing to deceive her own colleagues and Ministers, plus the people of this country, and in a spectacular fashion, so I think Brexiter MPs are very foolish to trust such a person.

      • NickC
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

        Chris, Indeed, far from U-turning, it was Mrs May who went behind the backs of her own Ministers – she created this shambles.

  12. Newmania
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    WTO is a toothless organisation which China manages to happily ignore entirely without any consequences. Without the support of the USA and EU, both of whom can do as they like, it is just a name. It has chiefly been a vehicle the EU to spread the gospel of Free Trade dragging the US in its wake (It is waaay harder to export to the US than the EU by the way)
    We have already seen how far we get with the Redwood theory (Spend years slagging them off and then hope they will like us), yeah good theory ,I am happy to bet ‘your’ job on it .
    So this odd faith is “touching” as they say but we are used to a dose of nonsense a day and past caring.
    The only point now is the transition period. With two more years much initial damage can be limited and, importantly, people have time to find new jobs . If we crash out things will be nasty in a visible way for people and families who deserve more care .

    The long term decline cannot be avoided now , we will all have to survive as best we can nursing our resentment and plotting revenge

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:44 am | Permalink

      Are you saying that the EU would also ignore the WTO?

      • acorn
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

        The EU; USA; China and the ASEAN States, can ignore the WTO anytime they want. The WTO has no powers of sanction against any sovereign state.

        Transnational corporations now use Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) clauses in foreign capital investment disputes, to stop Sovereign State governments and their legal systems; from preventing them making super-normal profits out of a countries citizens.

      • Newmania
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        Without the support of the EU there is no WTO and you think it can be used to make the EU do things it doesn`t want to do that suit us ? Ha ha ha …
        A certain amountof free riding has to be tolerated when you are trying to improve global trading conditions but an outright cheat on the doorstep . that won’t happen.

        What can we do about it ?
        Nowt

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

          You are saying in effect that the EU will break its own treaties, and yet you still want us to be bound up with that lawless organisation.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:03 am | Permalink

      Odd you think the WTO is a toothless organisation when the vast majority of world trade is conducted successfully under its rules.
      Why are you so afraid of tariff free trading?

    • zorro
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

      (It is waaay harder to export to the US than the EU by the way)….

      OK – What is the rate of increase in our exports to the USA compared to the rate of increase in our exports to the EU…?

      zorro

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:46 am | Permalink

      Uncontrolled immigration is just splendid for ordinary British families !

    • libertarian
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

      Newmania

      You are deluded. The EU spreads the gospel of free trade….. Ha ha ha funniest thing I’ve read in years. The EU is a PROTECTIONIST customs union . Thats the whole point. Trump is fighting you/them by doing to them exactly what the EU has been doing for 40 years… Blimey there are some ignorant people about.

      I’m still waiting for you or any of the other Pro EU fanatics on here to list the positive reasons for being in the EU which can’t be achieved outside it

      • Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        We have asked many many times for some Remainder to list just a few of the best reasons for remaining in the EU (in their opinion). Like you, I’m still waiting for one of them to give us the benefit of their superior grasp of the situation.

        Andy perhaps? He likes to sneer at those he perceives as ”elderly” so maybe he’d enjoy instructing us.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          I have tried to explain this to you at least five times but as usual you continue to argue with yourself asking the same questions over and over again. SO no news here

          • libertarian
            Posted July 21, 2018 at 11:17 am | Permalink

            hans

            You have done NOTHING of the sort , dont tell lies.

            List the benefits ( you do know what a list is right?)

            Go on here , below this, not on another thread , not a long ramble a straightforward list of the benefits

  13. Richard1
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    Now that the Tories have slipped 5% behind Labour, it must be recognised by all sections of the Conservative Party that we can’t fight another election with Mrs May as leader. So the question is when to make a change. The latest point would be spring 2019,post Brexit. But that means accepting the white paper version of Brexit (as amended by the EU). If there is to be a serious attempt to improve upon the chequers/white paper Brexit, there must be a credible WTO option, and that is no longer conceivable with Mrs May as PM.

  14. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    Off topic – Over 40 years ago we decided to move to Holland in stead of to England.
    This morning’s news finally vindicates our decision:
    “Cheese to become ‘luxuries’ in UK after Brexit, LSE (London School of Economics) warns.”
    Fortunately, Gouda is just a cycle ride from here. 🙂

    Reply A nonsense scare. I like the huge variety of English cheeses anyway – try Lancashire or Cheshire or Wensleydale or……

    • Andy
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:25 am | Permalink

      Peter – you forget, as I confidently predicted yesterday, Mr Redwood and the Brexiteers are experts on the dairy industry. They clearly know far more about it than the people who actually run it.

      reply I have never claimed that, but I do know you can trade from outside the EU quite happily, and can do well if you set your own rules and subsidies for agriculture.

      • Andy
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:56 am | Permalink

        I never said you couldn’t. But your Brexit trade barriers make trading with our biggest trading partner harder and more bureaucratic. The question is how much harder and how much more bureaucratic.

        Remember, you voted for those trade barriers. That’s what Brexit meant. And, to my knowledge, there has never been a case ever where adding trade barriers have made people more prosperous. Which example can you point us to to demonstrate your case?

        • Edward2
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

          What trade barriers is the UK threatening?
          Give us some examples.
          All I’ve heard is calls for tariff free trade.

        • zorro
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:12 am | Permalink

          You are wanting them put up sunshine because of your reactions. We are happy to go tariff free like any sane country would. It is the EU who have the issues with their OCD like ‘four freedoms’ and regulation ridden SM/CU!

          zorro

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:48 am | Permalink

          Nope, the real question is what overall economic effects reinstated impediments to our two-way trade with the EU would actually have, and the answer is that the effects would likely be marginal.

          I listen to certain politicians talking as if 100% of our economy was dedicated to exports to the EU, when it is actually about 12% of our GDP, as if every business in the UK was involved in exporting to the EU when it is actually about 6% of all UK businesses, and as if our economic growth over past decades has depended heavily on our membership of the EEC/EC/EU when the effects of that are not discernible one way or the other on a chart of our growth rate going back to the 1950’s before we joined, and in any case the estimates made by the EU itself are of very modest improvements.

          I did not vote for barriers to our trade with the EU, although I might have considered doing so, but I voted in the clear knowledge that the advocates of the EU vastly exaggerate its economic effects – the net benefits, as they assume, although even that is most likely not true once its costs have been taken into account.

        • David Price
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:18 am | Permalink

          Odd, we benefit far more from trade with countries where we don’t have the magical EU “free trade” agreement than we do with the EU under it’s “frictionless” arrangements.

          Why do you suppose that is.

          Can you point to another example of such a bizzare arrangement.

        • Prigger
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

          China

        • Ed Mahony
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

          @Andy,

          But your argument is skewered.

          Don’t you believe, in the long-term, the UK would be just fine outside the EU (that’s what businesses seem to say)?
          And that there is a serious problem of immigration and how this impedes the young buy new homes?
          And that why shouldn’t a nation be sovereign? Don’t forget every organisation needs strong leadership, and how can you have this in an organisation with different countries?

          I think we’d be fine outside the EU in long-term (as long as we focus on building our high tech / digital industries). The real problem is the short-term. If Hard Brexiters don’t produce a proper plan for the short-term, then things will go belly-up (perhaps really seriously economically / politically socially, above all, from businesses coming across real practical problems leaving the EU as well as investors stopping their investment in the UK (companies that were using the UK as gateway into the EU).

          Personally, I think we’d be better off trying to reform the EU – stripping it of its political power but having close economic, cultural and security ties.
          We’ve tried a bit to reform the EU in the past. But now the time is a lot more ripe for reform, as there is far more discontentment across the EU mow than in previous times, with much bigger problems to deal with than before.

          • Ed Mahony
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

            ‘The real problem is the short-term’ – not forgetting we’ve just come out of a near economic depression. And we’re still not up on our feet properly, now having to face a monumental economic battle leaving the EU which could have serious economic / political / social consequences if we get wrong.

      • Anonymous
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:50 am | Permalink

        And cheesemakers purport to know how to govern a country.

        To buy our cheese you must take in limitless people.

      • libertarian
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:58 am | Permalink

        Andy

        As you are an expert on trade why dont you tell us the field and source of your expertise ?

        You are right about one thing though Andy, protectionist trade barriers dont work.. Which is the number one reason the leave the EU.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          As you are an expert in everything under the sun without sources as well, why should the rules certainly change?

          • libertarian
            Posted July 21, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink

            hans

            Nope never claimed to be an expert in everything. I’m just good at research and posting links to that research. You on the other hand post easily disprovable opinions , you’ve never posted a link to a piece of research or a fact .

            `i worked for many years as a Management Consultant. A large part of that work is to undertake research into industries, sectors and fields that I’m not knowledgeable in. Its how you learn about the world. As you claim to be in the same field its telling that you dont know this

    • Know-Dice
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

      PvL, less imported cheese more home grown, yummy….

      Should I say “hard cheese” Netherlands…

    • Richard1
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      If, as seems very unlikely, French & Dutch cheese producers choose to embargo the U.K. we will do a quick deal with Switzerland – which produces much better cheese.

    • formula57
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:55 am | Permalink

      @ Peter Van Leeuwen – such good news for then, when one recalls :-

      “How can anyone govern a nation that has two hundred and forty-six different kinds of cheese?” – Charles de Gaulle.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

        How can anyone govern the EU which has far more still?

    • zorro
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:09 am | Permalink

      “Cheese to become ‘luxuries’ in UK after Brexit, LSE (London School of Economics) warns.”

      Hahahahahaha…. Which EU trees do we grow cheese off? I have to ask – you are joking aren’t you?

      zorro

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:17 am | Permalink

      I have noticed on my visits to The Netherlands that English cheeses are not available. Pity we don’t try to export more. The Dutch would like them if they got the chance to try them.

      Is it me but all talk of trading more widely eems to emphasise the ability to import from a wider world. We should be talking about exporting.

    • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:00 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply: It might be more interesting to actually read the LSE article – which only adds 7 minutes inspection time at the border for a container full of cheese, and look at all the figures. I always thought that LSE had a reputation for reliability.
      And yes, I like Wensleydale with granberries, please send some more to Holland!

      • Silence
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

        Start the lorry carrying the cheese 7 minutes earlier

        • Anonymous
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

          No. The older the cheese the better.

      • alan jutson
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

        PVL

        The LSE produced graduates of the type of politics of Mr Corbyn.

        Those people are now fully integrated into Government, education, local government and is part of the very reason we have problems in all of those services now.

        I would suggest the LSE is the last place any sensible person should go to seek advice.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

          They do not all come out as daft lefties from the LSE. But most do still seem to. Youth in general do seem to believe in magic money trees and some never even grow out of it like Corbyn, Paul Mason and Mc Donnall.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:04 am | Permalink

      JR, yet again your Dutch contributor warmly cites a report which is complete twaddle, and a government which actually believed in Brexit would be condemning that report as complete twaddle, but on the contrary it suits the government we do have to allow such twaddle to circulate unchallenged and add its own measure of twaddle.

    • libertarian
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:03 am | Permalink

      PvL

      Another topic on which you lack credibility

      Cheese is bought by over 98% of British households.

      We consume around 700,000 tonnes of cheese a year (including Cottage cheese and Fromage Frais) at home, in restaurants and in processed food. If you exclude Fromage Frais and Cottage Cheese it is about 600,000 tonnes

      Cheddar is the UK’s favourite cheese, accounting for 55% of household purchases.
      There are around 700 named cheeses made in the UK.
      The second most popular cheese is Mozzarella – most of which is made in the UK.
      Cheese producers in the UK also make versions of Camembert and Brie.

      In 2018 9,000 tons of cheese was imported from Holland. Less than 1.5%

      • margaret howard
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

        “Cheese producers in the UK also make versions of Camembert and Brie”

        A pale copy of the real thing – not worth eating. A Frenchman would laugh at the comparison.

        Prior to our EU membership you couldn’t even find Yoghurt or any other continental delicacy in the shops here, just waxy cheddar slices and while sliced bread.

        • libertarian
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:01 am | Permalink

          margaret H

          Oh dear…. do you not live in the UK?

          British cheeses have repeatedly beaten the French in awards

          The 2018 world cheese of the year is made in ….. Cornwall

          A Canadian cheesmaker won best brie

          Complete drivel on prior to 1975

          Some of us were around then , we have been making cheddar, stilton, and every other kind of cheese for 100’s of years. Why talk complete made up cobblers? Longley Farm yogurt was being made and sold in the UK from 1950’s onwards

          You might also like the fact that my local sparkling wine producer ( champagne) won wine of the year . So much so that Taitinger Champagne opened a vineyard in Kent

      • hefner
        Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

        You have to be kidding. There are indeed delicious British cheese, but be serious, are you really comparing French Camembert and Brie with their UK counterparts? Maybe you love US cheddar, that would explain a couple of things …

    • Cracker
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:07 am | Permalink

      Cheese can be made in individual homes. anyway. It’s not such a problem, anyone can do it. Any neighbourhood, village, country and locality can do it. In fact if scare stories are try true about cheese many of us will make a pretty penny as a result.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

        Especially if they relax the totally over the top EU regulations that kill so many small cheese producers.

    • Ian wragg
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:12 am | Permalink

      Red Leicester is my baby and we buy less foreign (EU) produce these days.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:31 am | Permalink

      Who wants to eat Dutch cheese anyway. It’s like rubber. Certainly people of taste would not have Edam or Gouda on their cheese board and I have never seen it in finer eateries.

    • Christine
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:16 am | Permalink

      British cheese is fantastic and much better than the plastic tasteless Dutch cheese. So you are welcome to keep your cheese. I’ve stopped buying any EU produce unless I can help it.

      • DaveK
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        Coincidentally it is the International Cheese Awards in Nantwich next week and we produce over 750 varieties of cheese >350 more than France. Last year, over half of the cheeses entered into the competition were from Britain, now the leading global cheese producer, ahead of France.

    • mancunius
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

      Nobody here bothers with the tastless Gouda – etc

      If you knew anything about Britain at all, you’d know that we have some of the highest-quality and most varied cheese and dairy in the world, including camembert, smoked and blue-veined cheeses, ewe’s milk and goat’s milk cheeses – thousands of different cheeses, all produced here and all inexpensively available.

      If anyone looks round the shelves of a large supermarket and wonders
      1) why continental cheeses are twice the price of UK cheeses?
      2) what flavours /cheese types we could not replicate or import from elsewhere or just do happily without, once no longer bound by EU protectionism?
      The answer is 1) the CAP, and continental non-competitive agri-produce 2) None at all.

      • Jason Wells
        Posted July 20, 2018 at 9:01 am | Permalink

        and still they gazed and still the wonder grew,

        that one small head could carry all he knew

    • forthurst
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

      The dire LSE predictions of a dearth of milk-based comestibles was commissioned by a EU wide farmers’ co-operative.

      I sincerely hope we leave the EU with as wide a chasm as possible between the CAP and our dairy industry. We do not need commissars in Brussels to tell our farmers how much milk they can produce. Good continental cheese is already a luxury; if people bought more quality British cheeses over flavourless foreign factory production that would be a good outcome.

  15. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    The main broadcast media are universally anti-Brexit and using their public access, in breach of their statutory duty of impartiality, to present one scare after another as a consequence of UK leaving EU. It is difficult now to even listen to any of them – so biased and self-important have they become.

    • Andy
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:30 am | Permalink

      Report them to Ofcom then. When Ofcom rule that they have behaved impartially you can have another organisation to add to your list of traitors.

      • Anonymous
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

        Pot calling kettle…

        So instead of accusing people here of racism why not report them to the police ? It is a crime, you know.

        We have a tradition in this country. Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.

        • margaret howard
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

          Tell that to the likes of Cliff Richard and all the other people who have been publicly affected (by false allegations ed)in recent years!

    • Bob
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:58 am | Permalink

      @Brian Tomkinson

      “It is difficult now to even listen to any of them”

      The only political party that has called for an end to the Licence Fee is UKIP.

  16. Reno Fardner
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    The EU will have to impose on the UK all the barriers it imposes on all other third countries. That is WTO rules. Which you obviously misunderstand

    Reply The US and China sell plenty to us under WTO rules

    • Richard1
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:38 am | Permalink

      There is a 10-year derogation from imposing such barriers if parties are in discussions in an FTA. The EU is attempting to resist Trump’s protectionism. Is it really likely they will wish to impose trade barriers and tariffs on the U.K. where they don’t now exist? It would make a nonsense of the EU’s protestations over Trump.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

      “That is WTO rules.”

      Which WTO rules? Come on, cite chapter and verse for us.

      • Reno Fardner
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:24 am | Permalink

        The basic rule of non discrimination. WTO 101. It means Brexit makes trade less free

        • libertarian
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

          Reno F

          I think you need a dictionary. Look up the definition of Free Trade ,

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

            Simple Professor arrogance again

          • libertarian
            Posted July 21, 2018 at 11:28 am | Permalink

            hans

            Its my pleasure to educate you

        • mancunius
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

          Only if the EU refuses to make a free trade agreement. The EU Commission has already expertise in making its citizens poor and unemployed. Now Brussels has a chance to expand its idiocy still further.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

          Saying “WTO 101” is not citing chapter and verse, it is an attempt to avoid admitting that you cannot cite chapter and verse.

          There are some relevant WTO treaty provisions for you here:

          http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/12/the-collapse-of-the-venezuelan-model/#comment-940203

          quoted from Article 7.4 of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, and Article 7.4.4 especially:

          “Each Member shall base risk management on an assessment of risk through appropriate selectivity criteria. Such selectivity criteria may include, inter alia, the Harmonized System code, nature and description of the goods, country of origin, country from which the goods were shipped, value of the goods, compliance record of traders, and type of means of transport.”

          In other words, both the continuing EU countries on the one hand and the UK on the other hand could advance legitimate objective grounds for treating each other very differently from the way that they treat some other countries.

    • acorn
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      The US and China sell to us via many “mutual recognition agreements” on top of the very basic WTO rules. Nobody trades purely on WTO rules and its “bound” tariff rates.

      A trade agreement is immensely preferable to the WTO Option, not least because these WTO problems must be solved regardless of whether an EU trade deal is forged. The UK’s task in establishing tariff levels and related trade treaties will be costly and is likely to proceed at a snail’s pace. Brexit will be costly and inefficient. Deadweight losses will rise, and economies will contract. Deliberately excluding the possibility of mitigating those losses is self-harming.

      Although EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has stated that an agreement will exclude financial services, an EU agreement can protect other sectors (on condition that the agreement itself is not sector-specific). The UK must either renegotiate its tariff schedules and forge new treaties. That will take years. The WTO Option is no substitute for a deal, and should not be thought of as such. (Columbia Journal of Transnational Law)

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

        Who is deliberately excluding that possibility? Read the speech from Steve Baker yesterday from which I’ve quoted and you will see that Donald Tusk made what seems a good general offer back in March and the UK government chose to ignore it. Why? Because it is a government led by a Remainer advised by a Remainer and mainly made up of Remainers who do not believe in Brexit and who hope that if they can make Brexit look bad enough then they might be able to swing public opinion in favour of stopping it.

        • cornishstu
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

          well said! it is absurb that we are where we are until you factor in that the establishment are mainly pro EU and have been kicking the can down the road whilst they plot and scheme to try change our minds and remain de facto part of the EU . We could have been out by now if there was the polictal will to leave, and as you have mentioned many times the bull put out by the remain side in the MSM is not rebutted WHY!

          • cornishstu
            Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

            political!

    • acorn
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:57 am | Permalink

      Are you referring to: WTO GATT Article I:1 ?

      Members of the WTO can be seen as members of a club. One of the fundamental rules of the club is that each member will grant any other member the best possible treatment it grants to any one else. Hence, each member of the club is guaranteed to receive the best possible treatment from each of its fellow-members.

      For example, let us assume that Rauritania’s MFN duty (duty applicable to all WTO Members) for tomatoes is 10%. Medatia is a big tomato producer interested in increasing its exports of tomatoes to Rauritania. If during a WTO negotiating round, the Government of Medatia initiates tariff negotiations on tomatoes with Rauritania. After long and difficult bilateral meetings, Rauritania agrees to give Medatia a duty free access (0%) for tomatoes. However, according to the MFN principle, Rauritania should extend the 0% duty on tomatoes to all WTO Members.

      This is because all WTO Members should enjoy the most favourable treatment for tomatoes granted by Rauritania. For trade in goods, the MFN principle requires each Member to extend to all other Members, treatment no less favourable than it accords to imports from any other country.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

        That is not one of the fundamental rules; where there are good grounds for granting better, or imposing worse, treatment then that is permitted.

        https://brexitcentral.com/busting-remain-inspired-myths-trade-wto-terms/

        That principle is true for the more longstanding WTO agreements as well as for the relatively new Trade Facilitation Agreement quoted above.

        Oh, and from that reference:

        “It is worth adding that the WTO courts are far from toothless, as is sometimes suggested, enjoying an excellent compliance record among its many hundred rulings over decades of practice. Winning a case before the WTO forces the losing country to remove the illegal measure, which the EU would be expected to do promptly or else suffer retaliation in the form of tariffs on its goods, along with the acrimony of the rest of the world.”

    • Christine
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:22 am | Permalink

      Spain I know for a fact is full of cheap Chinese goods that I doubt conform to any EU standards. On the Spanish market stalls fake designer goods are sold openly with police standing only feet away. Don’t make me laugh about trade as probably it’s only the UK who follow the rules.

  17. formula57
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    “Why would the UK want to sign such a one sided Withdrawal Agreement anyway?” – I don’t know of course but I am confident T. May will explain eventually why in her own strangely compromised world we have no choice but to do so.

  18. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    Yesterday a member of the Liaison Committee put it to the Ther half of Therolly that on her own government’s assessment it would cost us 5% of GDP to move to trading on WTO terms, and it would need an awful lot of new trade deals around the world to make up for that self-inflicted loss. The Parliament TV extract is here:

    https://goo.gl/51fmzs

    She did not question this. She did not say that she had never authorised civil servants to produce new editions of their unreliable pre-referendum Project Fear predictions. She did not say that their past modelling had proved so unreliable that she was not prepared to waste more public resources on any repeats. She did not say that it was strange that their models predicted economic losses much greater than the gains estimated by the EU itself, including in a report issued by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier in 2012 . Nor did she say that she had ordered a leak investigation and she expected to get the results soon and the guilty civil servant(s) could expect to be severely disciplined. Instead she accepted that there would be that level of economic damage and indirectly blamed the electorate for voting the wrong way in the referendum, the result of which she had to implement.

  19. formula57
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    ….I assume even Mr Barnier will understand they need continued decent access to the UK market” – perhaps, although the Evil Empire has a truly impressive record of disregarding the interests of its member states.

    The Evil Empire now confronts the threat of a trade war with both China and the USA (a war on two front and no Schlieffen Plan!) and it may well be that in its dreamy myopia it would be content to extend that to the UK.

  20. zorro
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    Indeed, they are empty threats. I have to keep on pointing this out to people. It is as if there is no life/trade outside of the EU for them and nothing/nobody can survive without being subservient to the EU.

    I see that Katya Adler was in full Project FEAR mode on the BBC news from Brussels last night talking about planes not being able to fly and interminable queues at the borders if we don’t do a deal….. She never talks about the legalities of WTO trade, Article 8 TEU, the Facilitation of Trade agreement which was recently implemented, and how the EU needs to COMPLY with these agreements in its relationship with the UK…. Why not? All these point to a sensible functioning trade landscape.

    I now tend to say this to people…. Look if the EU and the SM/CU are so crucial to ecomonic growth and stability then why is it that after 40 years of membership that there is barely any improved growth in GDP relative to before entry….. and why is it if we will be facing a disorderly exit/falling off a cliff edge/crashing out no deal scenario why do you not talk about current non EU trade in the same way because what would be different? And why is it that trade using the crash out/disorderly/’no deal WTO model with non EU countries is growing far quicker than our trade with the orderly SM/CU EU model? They never have an answer for that one….!

    zorro

  21. agricola
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    Thank you for deflating much of the Black Propaganda arising in desperation from remain. My current fear is that our PM is impervious to this and even failed to take notice of BJ’s resignation speech. She appears to have contempt for anything but her own remain position, in conflict with 17.4 million of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. They did not vote to be a fish on the bank fighting for air, caught by a fisherwoman with no moral compass. Every opportunity should be taken from now until the party conference to point out how untenable her position is. She may be able to scrape votes in the H o C, but there are still that 17.4 million and I suspect a growing number in the real world who are being treated with arrogant disdain.

  22. agricola
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Is there a clear explanation regarding the derogation from WTO rules for a period of ten years for countries moving from an established free trade area to future trade under WTO rules. As both the EU and the UK are parties to the WTO and currently trade free of tariffs it is very important to be clear on the facts of derogation. At the rate it is going the EU might not exist in ten years time.

  23. BCL
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    I do not understand the Northern Ireland border issue. Why can’t we say “we won’t put up a border. You can if you want to”? Isn’t it a problem for the EU rather than us? I’m probably showing my ignorance so can someone enlighten me?

    • Original Richard
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

      Both the EU and Mrs. May want the Irish border issue to be a problem in order to force us into a “common rule book” = SM/CU.

  24. Alan Joyce
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Dear Mr. Redwood,

    Why, in the face of massive opposition to her Chequers Plan is the Prime Minister continuing to push her plan as if nothing has happened? The new Brexit Secretary begins his discussions today with Mr. Barnier with the already objectionable white paper the basis of the negotiations.

    She has already witnessed a fall in Conservative fortunes in the polls of around 5%. She knows that Conservative Associations around the country are being told by their members that they have little faith in her ability to deliver a clean Brexit. The ERG have made it clear that they will not support her Plan, as it stands, through the Commons never mind when it is further emasculated by the European Union. Further concessions will lead to the submission of more letters to the 1922 committee.

    So why is she continuing with this?

    Might she be counting on opposition support as evidenced by the presentation of the White Paper to opposition MP’s just after Chequers? Further concessions to the EU might make her Plan quite attractive to them.

    So determined is the Establishment (presumably including the PM) to thwart the will of the People that they could be prepared to risk anything to keep the UK tied to the EU -including a catastrophic split in the Conservative Party.

    The former DEXEU Minister Steve Baker touched on ‘the Establishment’
    in his excellent speech during yesterday’s Commons debate on ‘The Future Relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union’.

  25. willB
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    If we persist with the No Deal option then there will not be a trade deal for the future- not even by WTO rules..the EU Council will see to that..

    We forget that with the EU.. politics trumps economics every time and then good sense goes out the window..positions will harden and no doubt life will become very difficult for everyone.. The Irish announce this morning that they are hiring 1000 more Customs officers..the Netherlands the same 1000 officers..so what do you think these bodies will be doing.. except inspecting everything..everything.. and in their own time

    So now I come to a particular problem- I am due to go to SE Asia after Christmas for family and business reasons but the passport office cannot advise me about how I will be fixed for after 29 March as I will be holding a UK/EU passport that might not be an acceptable document in some countries following that date. Surely we should be getting clarity on all of this by now- we are leaving the EU – so the new style passports should be issued right away for to start 30th March

    The use of the terms ‘silly’ and ‘beloved’ are sneer and putdown words usually associated with fringe extreme groups so we should also be examining their use as well..language might not matter to President Trump and others in their flip flop fake news world but it still matters to the rest of us

    Reply I assume the EU will accept UK passports, as they accept other third country passports! And we will still accept EU ones for visitors from the EU.

    • Jason wells
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

      Reply to reply..yes..but what about willB’s problem..what about travel to say Cambodia and malaysia or other countries outside of europe?

  26. Mick
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/991092/Brexit-news-EU-Article-50-deadline-date
    They cannot extend article 50 without the government giving there permission as set out in paragraph 3 of the article 50, and they had better not or that would be a betrayal of the 17.4millon

    • DaveK
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

      We should lobby Viktor Orbán to get Hungary vote against the extension then.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

      That is true, and moreover the government could only consent to an extension of the two year period after winning a vote in each House of Parliament.

      However that is not much of a safeguard as the unelected legislators-for-life in the Lords would jubilantly pass the resolution, and most opposition MPs would also be willing to vote to keep us in the EU for as long as possible, or indefinitely.

      So it would come down to whether enough of the Tory MPs were prepared to risk bringing down the government.

      Section 20 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018:

      http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/20/enacted

      (1) …. “exit day” means 29 March 2019 at 11.00 p.m. (and see subsections (2) to (5)) …

      (4) A minister of the Crown may by regulations –

      (a) amend the definition of “exit day” in subsection (1) to ensure that the day and time specified in the definition are the day and time that the Treaties are to cease to apply to the United Kingdom, and

      (b) amend subsection (2) in consequence if any such amendment.

      Paragraph 14 of Schedule 7 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018

      http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/schedule/7/enacted

      Power to amend the definition of “exit day”

      14 A statutory instrument containing regulations under section 20(4) may not be made unless a draft of the instrument has been laid before, and approved by a resolution of, each House of Parliament.

    • Chris
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

      We have already been betrayed, Mick, starting with the Dublin agreement in December. Charles Moore referred to it as a “complete capitulation” by Theresa May but Tory Brexiter MPs buried their heads in the sand apparently and refused to confront the issue even then. It is that much harder now, but possible, as Boris has said. However, it is not wise for Brexiter MPs to let this fester over the summer (as they are apparently planning to).

  27. Adam
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    We can prepare all arrangements for our freedom to be rid of the EU. Our Foreign Office initials offer less diplomatic language.

    If the EU wants to attract our 65 million consumers with their warehouse, they can try. Giving them £39bn taints their allure. Why would every man, woman & child in the UK want to pay £600 per head just to look in their lockup?

    Our own people regard £600 as a higher value than the near-worthless EU. Rather than Crash Out we shall CASH IN!

  28. robert lewy
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    May’s eisegesis stands in contrast to Barnier’s exegesis of HolyEU texts.
    Where religion is involved agreement tends to be emerge in terms of centuries or more?

  29. majorfrustration
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    And yet Mrs. May cant see this reasoning

  30. Oliver
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Why is Grieve allowed to endlessly repeat his “catastrophic” consequences remark, without ever being asked to be specific.

    For a man so normally pedantic with his tortuous legalistic obfuscations (which disguise quite well his total ignorance of anything remotely to do with the real world of commerce) he seems to throw the word around rather casually.

    Call him out on it, please!

    • Embarristering
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

      Mr Grieve is entitled to his view and expressing it…even though the British voted aforehand in absolute disagreement and in accordance with criteria for the vote which at the time he was given X as his mark.

  31. majorfrustration
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    Yes indeed the reporting of the UK/EU position by the BBC’s is akin to its reporting of Cliff Richards – hardly the truth.

    • Silence
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:16 pm | Permalink

      Laughable, hysterically so, that the Cliff Richard decision is condemned by our Fake News because “We won’t have a free press”

  32. Pragmatist
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    Mr Barnier speaks French and should be forgivingly understood. He can’t help it. It was they way no doubt he was brought up

  33. DUNCAN
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    WELL DONE PHIL DAVIES

    At least one Tory MP has the guts to confront the treachery of the most vile Tory PM we have ever seen

    May’s an enemy of democracy and an enemy of all decent Tories

    We want our country back and we want our democracy back from this unaccountable Europhile political elite

    Democracy is under threat and Parliament must fight to take back control from these dark forces who threaten it

    • Chris
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      Another commenter here was urging us to write to various MPs. I think that is sound advice, particularly giving support to those whom you believe acted honourably.

  34. Cliff
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    We need to be taken to the cliff edge, by the media and political elite, we need to be forced to start into the abyss below and then a snap second referendum!

    • mancunius
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

      There is no cliff edge. It’s called ‘independence’.

      A second referendum would be the biggest insult to democracy inflicted on the electorate since the middle ages.

    • NickC
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

      Cliff, Why is being independent an “abyss”? Most of the planet is independent of the EU.

  35. Prigger
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    The BBC are pushing this morning “There will be an increase in Hate Crime after Brexit”
    Should be ask British citizens in the EU to return home for their safety?

    • hefner
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

      Given the last figures on EU net emigration (arrivals minus departures) it looks like those EU citizens, particularly a sizeable number (50,000?) from the “old” EU15, are doing just that, going home, specially those not too far from retirement age to make sure they do not deal with HMRC any more and that their pensions will be paid in euros.
      Problem is that according to some HMRC statistics those are likely to have been paying around £20k in UK taxes (being relatively high-earners), which obviously will not be available to the British Treasury. If this information is true, that’s £1bn going.

      I do not know whether British citizens in the EU should return home for their safety, but I would think the movement in the other direction should also be considered.

      • libertarian
        Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:09 am | Permalink

        hefner

        If what you say is correct, I can’t be bothered to check , but two things.

        50,000 extra EU students have moved to the UK, so the lifetime value of their taxes would be more and of course one great benefit of older people leaving is the massive savings to the exchequer on health costs and pensions… So very good news oh and of course will be freeing up some more housing too.

      • Prigger
        Posted July 20, 2018 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

        hefner
        There is a net increase in EU citizens alone of over 100,000. I have not come across any figures for who in particular of the ones who have returned to the EU are of a certain age. What is the retirement pension in Romania? What number of medical staff do they have? According to the Remonars their medical staff are all over here doing jobs “we do not want”
        How many sewerage workers come from the EU btw? My bin men all speak Anglo-Saxon… Boris style. Which is okay by me. I’m not Anglo-Saxonphobic like Remoaners

  36. Jason wells
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    To crash out,.. crash out being the correct term for leaving without agreement as to our departure..if 39 billion is owed as part of departure terms then it is 39 billion..so theres no point in persisting with the language that we don’t have to pay or that we won’t pay..because unless the departure account is signed off there will be no future with them. IDS’S promise that the bavarian car workers will ride to our aid or that M Gove’s ‘the French Wine producers will come on side’ has not materialised – nor will it – this is war – not a war with guns or armaments- but an economic war looming and largely brought about by Tory ignorance and infighting- for which we will all be the losers. whether the media uses the ‘cliff’ word or not does not matters because that is what it is

    • mancunius
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

      You keep on posting this childish nonsense daily under an infinity of ever-changing psuedonyms – it’s pathetically transparent.
      You’re just embarrassing yourself.

      • mancunius
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

        ‘pseudonyms’

    • NickC
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

      Jason Wells, Have we “crashed out” of the USA? But we still trade with them, and will continue to do so after 29th March 2019. No, we don’t have to pay £39bn to the EU or anything like; it is a purely invented figure with no basis in accountancy or legal fact. The Bavarian car workers, etc, I suspect will be affected but the EU doesn’t care – thank you for reminding us.

  37. Victoria Smart
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    “The UK government will make sure all is ready to depart without a Withdrawal Agreement if necessary.”

    I really hope so because we have been waiting two years for this and still no sign of it. The EU will not take us seriously until we can demonstrate that we are ready to leave without a Withdrawl Agreement.

  38. Drachma
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    If we have a disorderly brexit..things will not be the same..if you think that tourists will continue flying about europe with no change..blah blah well they won’t because old animosities will raise it’s ugly head and pissed off customs and immigration officers will be just that – pissed off – so holiday makers will just stay at home..less hassle

    • mancunius
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

      After Brexit we should certainly try to improve literacy rates. National IQ we can do little about.

  39. Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Excellent John !

    Agree with all of that apart from – “will have lots more cash.”

    No we won’t it does ot matter if we run a budget deficit or surplus neither gives us more or less money to spend.

    You know that.

  40. Den
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    I wonder what has happened to your 2017, 108 page Plan to Leave the EU (The Road to Brexit).
    Has it been lost? It was supposed to have been posted last Monday and time is getting very short for this Parliamentary session.

  41. Drachma
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    In addition..better start saving your old receipts for personal goods bought on the continent..they will be needed to show to customs because thats the way things were in the 1950’s and 1960’s

    • Tourist
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

      Most people could not afford to go anywhere in the 1950s and 1960s and those who did were limited in what amounts of money they could take by “The Pound in Your Pocket” Labour PM Harold Wilson. A protectionist

    • libertarian
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

      Drachma

      Doh how silly of us not to think of that. If only someone had ever travelled to Canada, Australia, USA, India, Pakistan, China, Hong Kong, etc etc etc in the last 50 years we would have known you have to have all your receipts when not in the EU. Damn

    • mancunius
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

      It’s the way things still are – all round the world including in the UK – as you would know if you went anywhere.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

      When did the government say that it will be instructing HMRC to do that? I must have missed that official announcement, please do you have a reference to it?

    • margaret howard
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

      Ah, the good old days. Just what ancient Brexiteers long for!

      • NickC
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

        Margaret Howard, It’s the EU which is the fourth resurrection of the Roman Empire.

      • Anonymous
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

        Some things were better.

  42. Prigger
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Brexiteers and Remoaners in Parliament know. They are People Managing. As they should. They know that if the Referendum wording was Stop or Accept Immigration, the Vote without any campaigning for Stop, would be 85% Stop.
    It is really pretty adding on Exit from the EU, Control of Our Borders, Customs Union blah blah blah.
    MPs should manage a pretty negotiation of Stop. Remoaners won’t.

  43. Edwardm
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    Remoaners wish to keep us as vassals to a foreign centralised and unaccountable organisation. By using such derogatory terms about Brexit all they show is they have nothing positive to offer on their side.
    Sure it needs to be constantly countered – also the BBC needs a propaganda warning and should be made a subscription service.

  44. Peter Martin
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

    Mrs May, or whoever is in charge in the next year or so will likely want to be rid of the Brexit problem and the only possible way out will be to have another referendum. Maybe next year. So what do we do? We should start thinking about that.

    It’s tempting to boycott it but we’d then lose. I think we have to say something like:

    * We’re only having this referendum because we didn’t ‘vote the right way’ three years ago.

    * If we vote Remain now we’ll never again have the chance to vote Leave.

    * But if we do vote Leave now we will get another chance to vote Remain. And probably another chance, and another chance after that!

    * Stand Up for Britain against the bullying EU, and their supporters, who won’t take no for an answer. Vote Leave and keep voting Leave!

    Reply There is no need for a second referendum.

    • Andy
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

      On the contrary – you spent most of your career arguing for the need for a second referendum, seeing that you disliked the result of the first one in 1975.

      In any case, it will be the next generation which decides – and they are overwhelming pro-European. And, unfortunately for you, Brexit is just making them more so.

      You can’t beat demographics.

      • Edward2
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

        Exactly what the SNP said prior to losing their referendum.

  45. John Dodds
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood can you please explain how Mrs Mop was elected as Prime Minister.She has never been anything other than a Remainer and as Mr Rees-Mogg has said,she will remain a Remainer.So please,once again,explain how we were tricked into accepting her as I am sure I am not alone with this question.Then the next question please is how do we get rid of her before she nails us to the EU mast?

    • Anonymous
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

      Like getting a vegan to take charge of your hog roast bbq.

      No fun.

  46. mancunius
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    From the media approach today, I rather assume Barnier is dog-whistling to May (with Robbins to translate the messages from canine into humanspeak) so she can more confidently that it’s either her White Paper or chaos, and that we simply *have to* accept whatever changes the ‘EU’ (i.e. Brussels/Paris/Berlin) insist on.
    It seems Raab is so far complicit in this Pat n’ Mike cross-talk between the Cabinet Office and the EU Commission. What does it take to suborn pro-Leave MPs into being neutered Ministers? Not much, it seems.

    There is only one course of action now, and it involves a radical change of Tory leader and policy direction. I see Oliver Robbins’s government webpage claims his *primary* aim is to ‘give the Prime Minister the best possible advice on how to lead the Government’s approach’. Interesting that – it strongly implies that his advice comes first, before the Government’s policy directives.

    • mancunius
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

      ‘ more confidently *claim* ‘

  47. Duck Work
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

    The idea that when a factory worker goes off sick for a week his able bodied workmate can also take a week off is a great idea and should be rolled out across the country

  48. Gareth
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

    I’ll buy it, John.

    Two questions: you say that planes will keep flying and lorries moving through ports. What are the legal (e.g. Treaty) and regulatory mechanisms that provide for that, given that the current arrangements will expire on March 29 without an apparent replacement?

    Reply What are the laws that would stop it? Just don’t be silly.

    • libertarian
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

      gareth

      The number of dim people that think that the world world revolves around some old blokes in Brussels is astounding. How do you think we transport things to non EU countries at the moment, how do you think we fly places now?

      • Gareth
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

        The answer is that we have aviation deals that allow for freedom of the air rights – of which there about 10 different types – with those nations. So, for example, the EU has an arrangement with Australia and New Zealand (who have a bilaterallly agreed airspace). Now: if there’s no deal with the RU then the EU will still have its aviation freedoms agreement with Australia/NZ – but it won’t apply to the UK because we will no longer be an EU Member State. So: what will govern aviation freedoms for flights between Aus/NZ? Of course we can set up a separate bilateral agreement – but when will it be done and how long you I’ll it take? We need answers.

        • David Price
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:01 am | Permalink

          The do need to be new agreements, I imagine some would be more straightforward (eg US, Canada) than others (egEU). The answers need to come from government, however this government has been focused on delaying and blocking Brexit.

          So, you can take the view that Brexit was a democratic decision that must be blocked and use new agreements like these to ignore the decision and cancel Brexit. Or, you can accept it was a democratic decision and demand of government they present their plans and approach.

        • libertarian
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:24 am | Permalink

          Gareth

          Lol

          Please Google International Air Services Transit Agreement signed in 1944 The treaty includes all major countries in the world

          The UK and Australia are both signatories , so no, you not for the first time are totally wrong.

          The problem with you remainers is you believe that the EU is the only organisation that has worked on standards and treaties . It isn’t , it was even first , many global treaties and standards have been in place years before the EU existed

          • Gareth
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

            Oh dear, you haven’t read it properly. ISTA doesn’t cover landing rights – it covers first freedom (overflight) rights. The problem with s that other freedoms are involved in commercial air traffic. In particular, the Eighth Freedom
            Rights are almost unique to the EU, not covered by ISTA, and we lose them when we cease to be a EU Member State.

            Reply The Irish PM was talking about overflying rights. Do try to follow the issue properly. No country is going to cancel our landing rights as they wish to keep theirs into the UK.

          • Gareth
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

            You point out the mote in my eye, whilst ignoring the plank in your own. You need to take your own advice and try to keep up with the discussion, John. To recap: I made a general comment about freedom of the air rights (on which your knowledge is weak), it was libertarian that tried to claim coverage by IASTA, and I pointed out it covered only overflights – not landing rights. Of course Varadkar is wrong on overflights, and I’ve said so elsewhere.

            Now, I believe many EU Member States certainly will want to keep landing rights as they are. But we aren’t dealing with the Member States, we are dealing with the Commission which is rigid, rule bound and ideological. And there will be some Member States that may choose to make an issue of them for some purpose – maybe to protect an ailing national airline. And it will take only one Member State to block a deal on aviation, even if the Commission recommends it. Nothing can be taken for granted.

          • libertarian
            Posted July 21, 2018 at 11:32 am | Permalink

            Gareth

            The thread and threat by Vadarkar was about OVERFLYING the RoI … Do try to keep up

    • Reno Fardner
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

      It is the absence of laws that will stop it.
      Do you really not know that aviation depends on the international deals you want to ditch?

      • libertarian
        Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:27 am | Permalink

        Reno F

        Try Googling International Air Services Transit Agreement

        Doh ! You obviously really dont know what global treaties are already in place that the UK is signed to independently ( since 1944 in fact)

    • Gareth
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

      It’s not silly at all. I assume you are aware of the doctrine of “freedoms of the air” relating to the right (or otherwise) of commercial aviation to fly between nations? Or perhaps you are not aware. The so called “Eighth freedom” (or “Consecutive Cabotage”) is the right of an airline to fly anywhere between any two nations that sign up to it. Airlines in EU Member States are allowed by this freedom to fly between any two points in the EU – but it’s a very rare right outside the EU. So – what happens to a UK airline’s rights to fly between the U.K. and the EU (and vice versa) after March 29 next year?

      • hefner
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

        At least EasyJet will not have that problem. There is now an EasyJet.europe with offices in Vienna to complement EasyJet.uk with HQ in Luton.
        That should sort out many flights to European holiday destinations.

        • Gareth
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

          Nope. The commercial air freedom rights would then only cover easyJet flights within the EU (the Vienna branch) and within the U.K. (the UK branch). But U.K. to and from the EU await some sort of commercial aviation air freedom arrangement between the UK and EU. Whatever it is.

          • hefner
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:07 am | Permalink

            Thanks for the info.

      • Edward2
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        What happens to the EU too?
        All planes grounded?
        Are you seriously suggesting the world will stop flying?

        • Gareth
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

          It’s only planes to and from the U.K. that risk being affected.

          I don’t know what will happen. That’s why I asked John what the mechanism (Treaty, or whatever) that would enable commercial aviation air freedom rights to/from the U.K. so far – no answer at all, except a brush off.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 5:36 am | Permalink

            Agreements will roll over from EU to UK.
            No airline will accept being grounded because some bureaucrats haven’t got their paperwork sorted.
            The political fall out in the EU would be huge.

            Your attempt at project fear is another one that won’t happen.

          • Gareth
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:19 am | Permalink

            They won’t just roll over, Edward. That can happen happen but only if agreed as part of a deal. And the airlines have no say in that- if a plane takes off from the U.K. and is denied access to airspace or a landing slot at an airport, then it is illegal for it to try to do either. That is, I’m afraid, a fact.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

            Twaddle.
            This is a remainer equivolent of the millennium bug fear.
            A deal will happen
            Too much money and too many big companies are involved.
            What is the EU going to do, shoot down aircraft When they are trying to land?
            The EU will be destroying its reputation if it tries to play up national airlines.

        • Gareth
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

          And you’ve just conceded that “No Deal” doesn’t work and that we will have at least a deal that covers aviation. Congratulations on acceding to the strictures of reality.

      • libertarian
        Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:36 am | Permalink

        Gareth

        Blimey mate

        Google International Air Services Transit Agreement

        There is NO SUCH place as the EU… There are 27 countries that happen to be members of the EU. They will also want to fly out of Europe to the UK

        UK Airspace is divided into three FIRs; London, Scottish and Shanwick Oceanic.

        The London Flight Information Region covers England and Wales. The Scottish FIR covers Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Shanwick Oceanic FIR covers a region of airspace totalling 700,000 square miles over the North Atlantic.

        NATS manages the airspace within FIRs from two air traffic control centres – one in Swanwick (Hampshire) and the other in Prestwick (Ayrshire)

        Any airline flying to USA/Canada from northern Europe will need to be under the control of UK ATC at some point

        • Gareth
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

          I’m afraid you don’t understand at all. IASTA covers overflight, not landing, rights. As you say. It is a multilateral treaty and covers the U.K. still when we leave the EU so flights to and from the U.K. travelling through EU airspace will be unaffected. But it also goes the other way too: the U.K. cannot stop overflights of the U.K. airspace from the EU to anywhere else, because of IASTA. However, landing rights are not covered by IASTA – and thats the problem with No Deal Brexit.

          • libertarian
            Posted July 21, 2018 at 11:39 am | Permalink

            Gareth

            The UK `DOESNT want to stop overflying

            You fail to understand that in all these treaties there are far more countries outside than in the EU and they all fly and land from and to Europe. If you seriously think that the EU will try to stop flights to and from the UK you are deluded

    • zorro
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

      I am truly lost for words at the cognitive dissonance with some people. Are you suggesting that there will be no movement of any person/car/boat/plane from UK to EU on 01/04 unless we comply with what the EU want? Hey maybe they won’t accept our passports or refuse to speak English or any language to us because we are no EU just like they don’t eal with anyone outside of the EU….

      These ridiculous scare stories say so much about the people who postulate them!

      zorro

      • Gareth
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

        I’m suggesting that if we drop out of the EU with no deal then we will need to set up not lateral agreements with other nations in order to get those commercial aviation freedom rights. But when will that be done and his long will it take? And we won’t necessarily get the same aviation freedoms we do now in the EU. Some of the rights involved with commercial aviation are very contentious – look up Bermuda II, for instance.

        • Helena
          Posted July 20, 2018 at 6:36 am | Permalink

          Gareth, your problem is that you are presenting facts and detail. This is not what Brexiters are interested in. They believe it will all work out well. Brexit is a cult. Reality plays no part

          • Gareth
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 7:09 am | Permalink

            I think you might be right Helen. I wouldn’t mind if someone gave me a good reason why I’m wrong. So far, zip. Except a little mild abuse, which I can take.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 8:12 am | Permalink

            But they are not facts they are just project fear predictions.
            How long does it take two people who want to continue existing arrangements to sign a bit of paper?

          • libertarian
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 10:38 am | Permalink

            Helena

            as normal with remainiac scare stories there isn’t a single fact in Gareths posts…

          • Edward2
            Posted July 20, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

            Gareth
            Your fears are all based on there being no agreement to carry on flying and landing as we currently do.

      • stred
        Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

        This seems like the difference between Napoleonic law and Anglo Saxon. The former requires permission to do everything whereas the latter allows citizens to do anything unless it causes problems. Obviously the lawyers in the HoC like Sobry and Grieve the Legionnaire d’|Honoureist prefer the former along with Napoleon the Shovin.

        • Gareth
          Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

          An interesting point. But since the Continent, including the EU, have legal systems based more on the Napoleonic Code, then you can expect them to require flights from the U.K. to the EU to have the necessary legal and regulatory permission. Which they won’t have if there is truly No Deal.

  49. Richard
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    Off-topic, but the EU has apparently told the Irish government there will be no hard border needed even in a no-deal situation: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-calms-varadkar-s-fears-of-physical-border-checks-after-brexit-1.3569485

    “The European Union has reassured the [Irish] Government that no physical checks will be needed on the [Irish side of the] Border even if the UK crashes out of the bloc without a deal, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said.
    Mr Varadkar said that such a “doomsday scenario” would mean that the “commitments of others” would be relied upon to prevent a hard border.”

    So the backstop is unnecessary. And the 180 degree change from DexEU’s Canada+++ White Paper to the Chequers White Paper is also unnecessary. Hurrah!

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

      Thanks.

  50. Original Richard
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    We’re being threatened by the EU and its UK supporters that unless we accept their terms we will be hit by trade sanctions, closed airports and ports and a return to the “troubles” in Ireland etc..

    The Chequers’ plan is designed to pretend that we have left the SM/CU/ECJ when all along we will have signed back into these EU institutions via a “common rulebook” only this time with no representation in the making of the rules and consequently we will become totally exposed to future legislation damaging to the UK and to further EU frauds such as the German diesel emissions scam.

    Although the Chequers’ plan pretends to give Parliament the power to reject new EU legislation it is designed so that should we attempt to do so, then there will be “consequences” and we will again be threatened with trade sanctions, closed airports and ports and a return to the “troubles” in Ireland etc..

    Mrs. May made this very clear in her Sunday interview on the Andrew Marr Show when she said “decisions have consequences”.

    Giving in to blackmail once means never-ending blackmail.

    The Chequers’ plot is an even more serious a threat to our democracy and prosperity than was the Gunpowder plot.

  51. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    I’m looking forward to seeing who accompanies Dominic Raab to Brussels today. He may find over time that with Olly there as the direct representative of both halves of the jointly sovereign Therolly couplet there is not much point in him going. I’m sure there will already be some people there to make the tea and coffee, and polish Michel Barnier’s shoes. Maybe that is the real reason why David Davis didn’t bother to attend many of the meetings.

  52. Alasdair Macleod
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    There is only one issue that really matters on Brexit – the rest are ephemeral and can be dealt with.

    The point is Brexit must allow us to make Parliament fully accountable to the electorate for all our laws. Otherwise, they are forced on us by an unelected executive in Brussels.

    Remainers on both sides of the House are undemocratic, presuming the state is superior to the electorate. They must be held to account. IMO this is the most powerful argument the Brexiteers can deploy.

  53. Denis Cooper
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    JR, without wishing to be too presumptuous, could you consider writing pieces on:

    a) The kind of transit arrangements mentioned by jerry with this link:

    http://www.unece.org/tir/system/history/tir-history.html

    It seems totally pointless to have a complicated arrangement for the UK to collect EU customs duties on behalf of the EU when goods destined for the EU arrive in the UK but only en route to an EU destination, if they could just be sealed and sent on their way for EU duties to be applied when they arrive in the EU, and especially as the EU countries will not be reciprocating by collecting UK tariffs on goods which arrive in the EU but only en route to the UK.

    b) Whether in this day and age it is even worth collecting low level customs duties as a pitiably small source of state revenue but with disproportionately high compliance costs which must act as an unnecessary drag on trade and economic development.

    Are we really going to expect importers to bear compliance costs of up to £20 billion a year to collect customs duties on goods imported from the EU which could amount to as little as £3 billion? And much the same for the EU, for that matter.

  54. Stred
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    There is another Jason who is on talk radio frequently and gives an opinion, sounding like a lawyer, on the total impossibility of leaving on WTO terms without everything stopping including air travel, imports and exports. He says this is because HMG has recently passed a bill which forbids any element of a border, even s camera between the EU and UK. He quoted the clause. The radio host did not query his qualifications or ask why s government could not alter any nonsensical legislation. Repetition of this type of propaganda will sink in and be used by the media.

    Can you please listen to LBC around 2pm and refute this.

  55. JamesC
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

    Dr Redwood,
    What ‘crashing out’ means is that the UK’s existing trade arrangements will cease.
    You say that does not matter, because the UK will trade under WTO rules with the EU.
    Patrick Minford, a leading Brexit economist, says that the UK would lose all its manufacturing and farming jobs.
    Which of you is right?

    • Edward2
      Posted July 20, 2018 at 5:43 am | Permalink

      Do we really think the UK would suddenly have no farming and no manufacturing industry?
      80% of its demand comes from within the UK.
      And as an independent nation any unfair dumping could be dealt with by tariffs on imports.

  56. Tony Henry
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    I voted for Brexit. Not a hard, soft or medium boiled brexit. A proper out means out brexit. I didn”t vote for regulatory allignments or any other such deception.

    I put my initial misgivings about Theresa May to one side and thought let’s give her a chance. The promises are good and she may just prove to be another Maggie.

    Chequers has killed all that and exposed her for the remainer she is. I can no longer vote for the tory party while she is at the helm. Yesterday I did something I never thought I would do. I paid £30 and joined UKIP.

    They are the only unequivocal anti brussels party and not a party of Soubry, Clarke, Hammond or May. If the Tories were a party of JR’s or JRM’s I would not look to UKIP to provide the brexit the country voted for and which Mrs May is working so hard to undermine.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted July 19, 2018 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

      Good for you Tony. I’ve renewed my membership. I hoped May would keep her promise. She said the Tory party was the only party that would deliver Brexit. She has lied to us all and to her party. I hope she is gone soon.

  57. Simon Coleman
    Posted July 19, 2018 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Yes, lorries will keep on moving etc…it’ll just be more DIFFICULT with no deal.

    The ‘crashing out’ and other ‘Remainer’ phrases. People who are losing the argument tend to get overheated about media presentation and details of language. If you want to see how the media really combines to discredit somebody/something, then look at what Corbyn has had to contend with over the last few years. If May sacks somebody, it’s just a sacking. If Corbyn does it, he’s being ‘Stalinist’. And I’m not one of his supporters, by the way.

    As for the ‘misleading language’ that you complain about – as if anyone’s going to take lessons from Brexiteers on that issue!! The £350 million NHS lie; the Turks about to flood the country; the cheating on spending…what a joke you people are. But the problem is – you’ve made the whole country into a joke, which isn’t funny for any of its people.

    • Edward2
      Posted July 20, 2018 at 5:51 am | Permalink

      What nonsense you keep repeating.

      There has been non stop attacks in the MSM towards the PM over recent resignations of her ministers.

      Then the bus slogan…we haven’t left yet so there is no savings to spend elsewhere until we have left.

      We await the enquiry into vote Remain spending which totalled far more than leave spent.

      Turkey is predicted to join.
      It may be years away but expansion from 27 to 35 member states is part of the long term plan.
      Read the five Presidents report.

  58. Original Richard
    Posted July 20, 2018 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    The EU is determined to execute a punishment deal to deter other EU members from leaving.

    As Mr. Hollande, the then French President said 07/10/2016 about Brexit :
    “There must be a threat, there must be a risk….”

    So the more the EU’s UK allies push that a WTO/”no-deal” will be a disaster for the UK the more likely will it be that the EU will continue to refuse to negotiate a trade deal, even if this means it makes life much more difficult at the Irish border.

  59. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted July 21, 2018 at 1:55 am | Permalink

    The EU can in practice impose what tariffs it likes on UK exports after we leave. We must impose a tit-for-tat regime and impose equal tariffs item for item on the EU’s exports to us. As they export more to us than we do to them, they will be the losers.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

  • John’s Books

  • Email Alerts

    You can sign up to receive John's blog posts by e-mail by entering your e-mail address in the box below.

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    The e-mail service is powered by Google's FeedBurner service. Your information is not shared.

  • Map of Visitors

    Locations of visitors to this page