The traditional parties like the Christian Democrats and Social democrats in most continental countries, and Labour and Conservative in the UK, have a history of changing leaders and changing policies whenever their popularity falls or their electoral success is threatened. That is the nature of democratic politics. Parties that want to govern have to please enough people enough of the time.
So what is bizarre is the way the EU holds them in thrall, in the case of the continental parties to the point of self destruction. Undue support for the austerity policies of the Euro has swept aside the traditional parties of Greece, Italy and France, throwing up new parties that have taken over government. In both Spain and Germany the two old giant parties  have been deeply wounded by the their adherence to the EU/Euro scheme.
The UK parties have been less damaged because self preservation – and a lot of pressure from a few of us in Parliament – kept them out of signing up to the Euro. At the last election the promise both made to take us out of the EU took support for Labour and Conservative back up to a combined high 83%. It is not surprising to see Conservative support now  falling with the PM trying to persuade people of her delayed and partial exit  in tge Chequers proposals. Many Conservative voters from 2017 feel let down, as they voted for a party that would get on with Brexit.
Mrs May needs to remember just how much damage too much EU has done to the Conservative party before. Mr Heath who took us into the EEC lost in 1974, the first election that followed that fateful decision. It was not just the EEC that cost him, but Labour offered a renegotiation and a referendum which proved more popular, as people thought Mr Heath had done a bad deal. Sir John Major sacrificed his party and did huge damage to the UK economy by insisting on joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism. This duly plunged us into high inflation followed by recession, as I predicted at the time. This in turn meant the Conservatives spent the next 18 years from the 1997 election without a majority in Parliament, with 13 years in opposition with few seats, paying the price for the economic incompetence too much EU delivered. The false explanation that he lost in 1997 owing to disagreements about the EU can be easily rebutted by looking at the opinion poll graphs. The Conservatives lost support heavily as soon as the economic damage of the ERM was revealed, and never regained it – nor lost more – during the rows that followed.
August 5, 2018
The Conservatives will lose the next election if they keep May and if Brexit is not delivered. This will hugely damage the UK if Labour is allowed to take over especially with the SNP. A few of the true Tory MPs have got to act to save the party and more importantly, the country from disaster. Its not too late John.
August 5, 2018
Indeed not too late. Corbyn/SNP can easily be beaten. Few in England want to see them destroy jobs & the UK economy even further. But not under May and Hammond who are largely despised by real Tories (for their fraud against Brexit) and indeed despised by most lefty remainers too.
August 5, 2018
Mrs May is hopeless. She is getting nowhere with her EU negotiation. Her latest overture to Macron is humiliating and embarrassing. She has no clear vision either for Brexit or anything else. Tory MPs need to decide whether they want to give clean – FTA – Brexit a go. If so they need to replace Mrs May ASAP. Otherwise I’d suggest either settling for EEA as proposed by Lord Owen and others, or even a new referendum with a clear choice of Remain or WTO.
August 5, 2018
Dear Richard–But there was a clear choice between Remain and WTO last time–What else could Leave have meant?
August 5, 2018
Postscript–Chequers is beyond belief–Mrs May apparently couldn’t see that it is not only bonkers for us but for the EU as well and predictably so–Good job!!–To scuttle over there begging them to accept it is manic–Actually I do not understand in sense was Chequers supposed to be permanent?–If not how change??–Do the men in grey suits still exist?–If not reinvent them.
August 5, 2018
@ Leslie Singleton
What else could Leave have meant?
AS always Leslie spot on the money. you have to wonder about the ignorance, commitment and loyalty about the new generation of MPs
August 5, 2018
Fedupsoutherner.
Some say it is already too late and that May has sealed the fate of the tories.
Politics changed dramatically in Europe during the 1930’s because of appeasers, pacifists, quislings, and France having too high an opinion of itself.
I suspect parties like UKIP are yet to have their day.
August 5, 2018
Indeed. If a Fake Brexit is forced on the UK, then the next General Election will be all about … a Proper Brexit.
The upcoming leadership contest should be backed up with the threat of consequential co-ordinated action – if May tries to carry on as leader.
Proper Brexiteer MPs should not allow themselves to be tainted by a Chequers Fake Brexit.
Stopping this Fake Brexit is the only way that The Conservative Party can save itself from destruction & being replaced.
August 5, 2018
Led by a Proper Brexiteer, The Conservative Party should easily win such a General Election â (since LibDems, SNP, PC & Labour are all fighting over the pro-EU / Fake Brexit vote).
74% of Conservative Party seats voted Leave and 64% of Labour Party seats voted Leave: http://facts4eu.org/news_jun2_2018.shtml#cof
And âRecent polls of the electorate as a whole have shown that 65-70% think Brexit should now go ahead. In the latest poll, even 58% of Remain voters think the government should âjust get on with itâ.â
It is all about Trust. As JRM said: âThere is no market for a âTechnical Brexitâ â
August 5, 2018
You are absolutely correct!
August 5, 2018
Completely agree with Fedupsoutherner. The longer this mess is allowed to go on, the more long-term support the party will lose. After the last election, the Conservatives now have to deal with the issue of “fool me twice”. Voters may consider themselves fooled once by believing party promises at the last election. After events since, notably Chequers, very few will be willing to be fooled twice.
The Conservatives need a new Prime Minister and Cabinet who are in control long enough to prove themselves to the electorate before that election happens. They will have to stand on their own merits, as they certainly cannot stand on the current group’s.
August 5, 2018
Indeed. Most back bench Mps have little say in policy so are not directly responsible for their leader and Cabinet decisions. However the facts are that we had a referendum to leave the EU and ALL of its institutions. Out of the single market, customs union, end of free movement, no more tribute, control of our laws etc. A Department of Exiting the EU created to negotiate our exit on this premise. A Brexiter team was put in charge. Then Make May called an election where both main parties promised to implement the will of the people. Then we had the contrived MSM with the obvious backing of the remainers, the PM and other Cabinet members to introduce soft and hard Brexiter! Crashing out etc. Then we learn that May conspired with Olly and others for the remain white paper secretly written and foisted on a surprised cabinet. Agreed with Merkle before her own Cabinet. She is a disgrace to her office and all trust is lost. She must go and the Tory’s are toast!
August 5, 2018
This is why the Tories need to select an erudite person whose integrity is beyond question.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is untainted, although he says he doesn’t want to be and would not consider the position of party leader. We could do worse than our own host whom I have found to be most trustworthy and principled, but there are too many milksop remainers in the Conservative party for him to get the necessary support (they ought to question their own suitability to be called a Conservative, not his).
Whatever happens, we have to break with underhanded ‘hidden agenda’ politicians who are more than prepared to dupe the public for their own ends. This latest duplicitous weakling, May, is the worst imaginable compromise.
Tad
August 5, 2018
Boris + JRM (chancellor) + Steve Baker (Brexit). Clear out all remainers from Cabinet, that should do it.
August 5, 2018
JRM or Boris. The Labour party would try to make hay out of their privileged backgrounds through their narrow minded class warfare politics but I think both could be vote winners.
August 5, 2018
Problem is, Tad, and everyone else calling for May to go is that the Tory MP’s are mostly Remainers and will not countenance a Brexiter. The numbers of Leavers are not there in Parliament. They know they are risking their party but figure they have another 4 years to go and just want the referendum frustrated, after which they think that we will just accept it and go on from there. They may be right – lots of people seem to want to change their mind now out of frustration. Four years is a long while – the two years of this farce seem interminable. The tragedy is that the people phoning in to radio stations don’t point out what is wrong with Brexit to make them change their minds, but are just fed up with the incompetence of this government in doing it. I’m not so sure it is incompetence, I think it has been orchestrated from the start with a view to getting Brexit cancelled or worse still, BRINO, hence the Cameron resignation the delay in putting in article 50 notice and the glacial speed of setting out the government position. May’s earlier good speeches and the manifesto have been torn up.
August 6, 2018
I agree Graham,
I have been saying much the same thing, but it will come back to bite them unless the remainers do accept a true Brexiteer as leader.
The remainers arrogantly thought they had ‘remain’ in the bag and smugly agreed to abide by the result of the referendum in the belief they could not lose, but the British people had other ideas and put them in their place. That happened again with the 2017 General election where 80 to 100 seat majorities were expounded by the Parliamentary Conservative Party. Since then, to frustrate the Brexit process, the remain plan was to deny the people their democratic right any way they could. That is self-evident.
Leavers haven’t quite yet learned who is master and who is servant in this relationship. They should still accept the result of the referendum as a matter of honour and principle, but it seems no amount of condemnation or criticism will deflect them in their quest to de-rail it.
That sums up the type of people we have in parliament – detached, self-serving, and dismissive of the people they are supposed to serve.
It is my belief remainers have totally misread the angry mood of the people, and they will pay a very heavy price. It wouldn’t surprise me if the next General Election was a real earthquake to put other events in the shade. Such upheaval can be avoided if they only did as they were told and the Tories gave us a leader the people actually want, not some hidden-agenda lily-livered compromise!
Tad
August 5, 2018
I think the majority of Tory MPs do not realise how bad it is for the Cons outside Westminster (I do not include JR in that). This ignorance demonstrates not only the huge divide between the political elite and the people but the arrogance of power which these people display. Remember the phrase “They didn’t think she would lose” ? It first happened with the Referendum and it is happening now.
Those Tory Brexiter MPs determined to hang on in Cabinet and support the betrayal of the electorate should think long and hard. None of them, including Gove, will have the slightest chance in a leadership election and will never gain full support and trust from the electorate. They have revealed their true colours.
August 5, 2018
“True Tory” Pse define from a non-UKIP perspective..
August 5, 2018
free marketeer looking after those who look after themselves while looking out for those who can’t and not bending to minority hims
August 6, 2018
minority whims
August 5, 2018
Rien
As someone who knows that UKIP are a joke, my definition of real Tory, is someone who believes in a smaller state, lower taxes and empowering people to build their own success . A party that realises and fights for free markets and the benefits that the market economy has bought to billions of people
August 6, 2018
Libertarian
A classical liberal then. I am somewhat more conservative (in the sense that I believe that in a world where free trade outside blocs (and except most commodities) is a fantasy, the state has a duty to protect redisent business) but my economic principles are similar. So what are your views on state health care provision and private water?
Incidentally, leaving the EU does not necessarily get you nearer to your principles..
August 5, 2018
The blog is written on a false premise. There are politicos in these parties wishing to sell out their nation for a beloved dictatorial state unaccountable to the public it serves.
The EU is a parasite on the host nations and wants to prevent referenda for people to decide if it should integrate losing national identity, law, culture and societies. It will choke the life out of their way of life without them having a say and they will be forced to pay taxes to bring it about. It wants sham democracy like police commissioners and mayors so people think their votes matters when it is of no consequence whatsoever. The commission unilaterally decides law, directives and regulation without any say from the 500 million people that it will impose its views upon.
Time for the EU to actively disbanded, disregarded and got rid of. It has no pace in any representative democracy.
August 5, 2018
Indeed.
It is surely the case that the Tories led by someone who believed in a real Brexit, sound economic policies, low taxes, cheap energy, jobs, grown and far smaller government would win elections hands down and give us a sound economy. But with the (only partial) exception of Lady Thatcher (and even she mad many errors perhaps the main one was appoint Major to anything at all let alone chancellor) we have had nothing but dire EU loving & tax and regulation increasing socialists.
T May even threw her small majority away with her idiotic “vote for me and I will punish Tory voters” even more manifesto.
If only Cameron had actually been the Cast Iron, EU sceptic and “low tax a heart” Conservative he dishonestly claimed to be (near elections anyway). He was a good presenter and had two open goal elections – but alas a compass 180 degree out and appointed idiotic chancellor in George Osborne. Who increases taxes hugely and ratted on his ÂŁ1M threshold each IHT promise. (This ratting still continued by the appalling Hammond).
No change no chance just as with Major. Even against the appalling prospect of Corbyn Mc Donnall/SNP (whom hardly anyone wants) T May & tax to death P Hammond will lose.
August 5, 2018
If we leave without a deal and do well afterwards, I suspect we will not be the only country to leave the EU.
The franco german belgian empire will fragment. As you say political parties have had enough of it, well actually so has most of the population.
It does concern me however, that it took so much weight of public opinion for so long until we see a sign that politicians appear to be waking up and smelling the coffee.
A vast change is on the cards for Europe, and while the original EEC concept was supposed to be to prevent wars in Europe, if there is another then next time I don’t think we should be liberating any of it’s countries. We should not get involved, let them rot, nothing to do with us.
We liberate them from tyranny – they blackmail and threaten us.
And in future the office of Prime Minister should only be held by someone who’s ‘ideological
DNA’ is appropriate.
We don’t need a PM who does sneaky dealings with behind our backs especially with the french. We don’t need PM’s who nips off to the Vatican while supposedly on holiday – just as May has nipped over to Macron’s place.
“Oh I’ve just got to pop in there for a moment” Yeah I bet you do.
August 5, 2018
Agree John, but as I see it at the moment it would seem at the moment the Conservative Party as a whole does not want to act, will allow Mrs May to finish her so called version of Brexit, then she will be disposed of, in the hope that a new leader (probably someone not involved in any way with the EU negotiations, or even supporting the deal) can still galvanise enough support to win another term.
I question whether the above tactics would work, as the Population as a whole I believe prefer people who are prepared to stand up and be counted, rather than those who simply stand in the shadows.
The only saving grace for the Conservative party would be for us to fail to reach agreement with the EU, and we walk away with a WTO deal which was PROPERLY EXPLAINED.
August 5, 2018
the latest reports in the press suggest there is a well advanced plan by those in government, in combination with Remainers, to delay Article 50 (indefinitely?). Theresa May cannot be left in place. I suspect that Tory Brexiter MPs believe, as apparently Michael Gove does, that it is best to “leave” the EU Chequers style, then have a leadership election at some later date with a view to getting better terms with the EU. Apparently they think that this is their best way of holding onto power. Party before country yet again it seems. Duplicitous fools in my view.
August 5, 2018
Gove is wrong – we won’t get a better deal by staying in. We tried it for 40 years and they just undermined and sidelined the UK, particularly with the Lisbon Treaty. They love our money but detest the British. Always have throughout history, always will.
August 6, 2018
graham
Agreed.
August 6, 2018
I would ask Mr Gove why he thinks the EU will bend to a third country’s wishes, once we have signed a subservient leaving agreement, when it would not countenance significant change when we were members and threatening to leave?
August 5, 2018
Ted Heath (another wretched Oxford PPE man) was in many ways was just like Theresa May. Another lefty, high taxing, patronising, interventionist dope with religion and without children. Despite losing two general elections Heath amazingly vowed to continue as leader of his party.
In February 1975, Margaret Thatcher defeated him to win the leadership (thank goodness) and went on to win effectively four elections (one with Major as her chosen man before people realised he was an appalling EUphile, lefty dope he actually was) and someone who could not even apologise for the massive damage his ERM pointlessly and entirely predictably inflicted on people.
Powell put it to Heath in 1972:- “Does my right hon. Friend not know that it is fatal for any Government or party or person to seek to govern in direct opposition to the principles on which they were entrusted with the right to govern? In introducing a compulsory control of wages and prices, in contravention of the deepest commitments of this party, has my right hon. Friend taken leave of his senses?
No he just like May simply never had their senses!
May & Hammond too like to endlessly intervene in these hugely damaging ways for misguided political reasons. On the minimum wage laws, on energy pricing and other price controls, on gender pay, damaging self employed gig economy laws, other employment laws, taxation of non profits on landlords, dire monopolies in Heath and Education …..
May, Hammond and indeed Carney really must go and very soon indeed.
August 5, 2018
Although Blair won a landslide in 97 promising to be “at the heart of Europe”, with people knowing he favoured joining the euro and on a generally pro EU stance. Electorates are fickle!
August 5, 2018
…………..they’re also frustratingly gullible to smooth-talking oily politicians.
I myself have been taken in, but I never get conned twice by the same person. We only need to contrast May’s Lancaster House speech (pre-2017 election) with the Chequers statement (post 2017 election) to see the disparity and the subterfuge, and her willingness to deceive in order to get what she really wanted – Brexit in Name Only.
So what does that say about a parliamentary party that keeps lining these people up to thrust them upon us?
The ordinary Tory party membership usually just gets a choice from a list that has been narrowed down by MPs to just two. Last time, they didn’t even get that, they got a coronation – neither scenario is good enough any more! It has delivered far too many greasy types that sooner or later prove themselves to be at odds with the grass roots, and the wider electorate.
Tad
August 6, 2018
I agree. The party members need to change the system for electing their leader. This needs to be done ASAP.
August 5, 2018
âIn thrallâ ? I would not use those words. The EU crippled their economies in the case of Greece and Spain and then acted like gangster loan sharks looking for payments with menaces.
A separate trend in the U.K. is a move towards centrist policies away from traditional right and left. Blair is the best example. His lengthy tenure encouraged others to believe if you canât beat âem join âem.
August 5, 2018
Peter,
There’s a great YouTube video where Yanis Varoufakis blows the lid on the EU and the way it works. Should anyone be in any doubt about the EU’s disreputable, corrupt, and damaging practises, they should seek it out. It is rotten from the core outwards. No political project so debased has ever managed to survive long-term. In my own view, the EU is courting open revolt and revolution.
Tad
August 5, 2018
According to Liam Fox there is about a 60% chance that we will leave the EU without any deal, and according to a Sky reporter that would be an utter catastrophe. Well, I suppose that does depend on what is meant by there being no deal. If it only means that we leave the EU and its Single Market without any replacement special or preferential trade deal with the EU, and so we become just another one of the many “third countries” around the world, including for example the US, with which the EU has no deal affording especially beneficial terms of trade to each side, so trade is still conducted under the general WTO agreements, then that need not create anything more than relatively minor short term problems while UK companies adjust. On the other hand if it is taken to mean the abrupt termination of every agreement we now have with our neighbours which is predicated on our EU membership then that would be another matter. I don’t suppose that Liam Fox really means that there is now a 60% chance that we will leave without any continuing or replacement agreements with our neighbours about anything at all, so it would be much better if he, and everybody else who supports our withdrawal from the EU, made it clear that we are not talking about no deal with the EU on anything at all, because unless that is made crystal clear then it will be deliberately misinterpreted by Remoaners.
August 5, 2018
More lies:
https://news.sky.com/story/liam-fox-faces-ridicule-over-u-turn-on-brexit-no-deal-11462477
“Just over a year ago, Dr Liam Fox declared confidently that a trade deal with the European Union would be “one of the easiest in human history”.”
Nope, as I have tried to explain to Andy here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/05/how-more-eu-damages-political-parties/#comment-952669
the word was “should”, not “would”; and he was perfectly correct, it “should” be very easy and if it is not then that is down to the EU, which obviously does not consider itself bound by its own treaties including Article 8 TEU:
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html
“The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation …”
August 5, 2018
Sky appears resolutely anti-Brexit. I now trust their coverage on the subject as much as that of the Daily Express.
August 5, 2018
Political parties diminish and fail when they cease to respond to the wishes of the people in the countries in which they operate. The EU holds in enthral parties because they have nothing else to hang on to. Big parties from large wealthy countries fund the EU who are unlikely to move against them. The EU’s mistake is ignoring the wishes of the people. The result of this disdain for the people is the rise of more extreme parties who may appear to answer the needs of the people, but in some cases have more sinister motives. National Socialism in Germany 1933 is the supreme example.
I would submit that both Labour and Conservatives are a long way from the wishes of the people. Labour delude themselves with a large active membership, but when it comes to an election are due for disappointment. I have no sense that the traditional working class supporter of Labour has much enthusiasm for Momentum and revolution. The Conservatives failure is that in Parliament they largely believe in the EU. Everything, post Chequers, from Conservative leadership suggests that they are totally out of touch with the people of the UK.
If the Conservative party wish to commit political suicide that is their business, my concern is the future of the country.
August 5, 2018
We now know that with Mrs. May we will get more EU.
Mrs. May remains in office not for the good of the country but for the temporary convenience of the Conservative Party. Time to put the country first, surely?
August 5, 2018
I have voted conservative the majority of my life. I am now a UKIP member. I will be voting for the Labour party at the next election. The conservative party need destroying. It is now plain to see the conservative party are there to serve big business only, they don’t give a dam about the electorate. The EU exists to protect bis business from competition at the expense of the consumer.
August 5, 2018
Agreed! Democracy demands their destruction as a warning to all future politicos of what happens when you sell out your Nation!
August 5, 2018
@Timothy. Why on earth would you vote Labour if you are a UKIP member? Labour want to keep us in the EU too. If more people voted UKIP then it would send a clear message to both parties that they are fed up with the mainstream parties and want to get out of the EU. I’ve also been a staunch Conservative voter all my life but I could never vote Labour (knowing that the country would be broke in no time) but I am now a UKIP member and so would vote for the only party willing to leave the EU, lock, stock and barrel and whose policies are very much Conservative based. Corbyn will be a disaster.
August 5, 2018
You’ve been a Conservative voter all your life but you’re going to vote next time to put a bunch of anti-Semitic quasi-marxists in power? Have a good think about whether that’s really what you want.
August 5, 2018
As opposed to anti-British quasi-marxist globalists?
August 5, 2018
I don’t want a party that doesn’t uphold democracy. One that lies and schemes. I would love to see ukip do really well and send out a clear message. What’s the point of ping longing between two crap parties, neither of whom will deliver Brexit?
August 5, 2018
Highest taxes in nearly 50 years, public services in complete mess, murder and serious crime at record highs, attrocities through insecure borders, mass immigration at record highs, gives away hundreds billions while wanting you to sell your home to pay for elderly care, Windrush anti black scandal, cultural Marxist May in her non gender neutral world! May seeking the approval of a Merkel for her remain paper before she shows her plan to cabinet or parliament! May betrays the nation and public vote in the most untrustworthy manner ever. This is fact and the current situation of our country, what Labour might do is conjector at the moment.
I think Richard that you might need to think what the actual Tory party is not its past reputation or what it spins it might be or do as a narrative.
August 5, 2018
‘The EU exists to protect big business from competition at the expense of the consumer’.
Agreed – it’s a giant-sized protection racket! But I am astonished that more remainers can’t see it for what it is.
Tad
August 5, 2018
That doesn’t make sense. I am also a lifelong Conservative voter but I will be voting UKIP at the next election as I would have done at the last one had their MPs not stood down against pro Brexit MPs which my Tory MP pretended to be.
If you are a UKIP member, why are you not voting UKIP, if only to show how rigged the system is in favour of the Con/Lab parties when they get 4/5/6 million votes again and yet not one single MP? You don’t have to vote Labour to destroy the Conservative party. They are doing that all by themselves!!!
August 5, 2018
Even worse for me – Theresa May is our local MP and I decided to suspend my disbelief and vote for her instead of the UKIP candidate. Never again, not for her in the unlikely event that she stands again, but also never again for any Tory candidate at any level unless she is removed from office before she can consummate her disgusting betrayal of our country.
August 5, 2018
None of this is surprising.
None of you on this blog are Conservatives. None.
Youâre all kippers.
So, incidentally, are most of the âToryâ hard right pensioners in Parliament.
The relatively decent party of Cameron, Clarke, Heseltine, Major is no more.
August 6, 2018
And what are you?
August 6, 2018
Not all..
August 6, 2018
Andy, So your “Tory, hard-right, pensioners” are neither Tory, nor hard-right, nor pensioners? You’ll have to think of another bombastic phrase then.
August 5, 2018
Surely we are well past the point where Appeaser May should have resigned.
Simon Heffer Today in the Telegraph:-
The point where enough is enough could arrive very soon for Mrs May, Tory grass roots are in uproar and MPs are in despair. The Prime Minister may not survive their wrath.
August 5, 2018
I thought politicians were only allowed a dozen or so days of bad headlines before getting the push. Different rules in place for the PM, obviously. Or have the ‘men in grey suits’ fallen asleep?
August 5, 2018
The Conservative party is in a mess brought on by their own actions they have lost the trust of many who voted for them believing they would honour their manifesto.
Instead of delivering what was promised they have proved to be spineless in supporting the country and continually capitulating against the will of those that supported them.
This pathetic show of weak leadership will no doubt result in a Conservative defeat at the next election.
Tell me why I should give my support to a party that does not value my vote?
August 5, 2018
UK parties HAVE changed. They’ve kept their names though.
August 5, 2018
It seems so simple – either conservative MPs get rid of May or the voters get rid of the conservatives.
August 5, 2018
How many of those MPs and advisers are listening, mf? They seem to be like those ostriches and the sand.
August 5, 2018
@ majorfrustration
Absolutely correct
August 5, 2018
Do you not think that the proportional representation used in many European parliaments has something to do with the rise and fall of new parties? When we have elections on those terms here, such as the European elections, non traditional groups like UKIP do well. First past the post preserves the ‘big beasts’ but at a cost – at the last election neither party offered anything on the policies most important to me, and I voted only because I felt I ought to. I know people who have lived all their lives in constituencies where their vote has been irrelevant, as their opponents are perpetually in power. It all serves to help put people off politics.
August 5, 2018
Exactly, which is why the Con/Lab parties want to keep the current system.. It’s an affront to democracy that UKIP got nearly four million votes, more than the Lib Dums, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens put together and yet did not received one MP. Also that the Tories have won the popular vote in every General Election since 2001 and yet Labour returned 90 something more UK MPs with English seats than the Tories and it took until 2015 and to get a Conservative Government. In that time England’s young had tuition fees forced on them only thanks to the votes of Scottish & Welsh Labour MPs.
Until England gets it’s own parliament the same as the rest of the UK and western world already enjoys and proportional representation the same as them also, a democracy we ain’t!! But we shouldn’t hold our breath. The Westminster Gravy train means far more to 650 self serving MPs than a little thing like democracy and equality of the nations in this so called United Kingdom!
August 6, 2018
The current electoral system serves the interest of the parties, not the people as it allows the parties to safely ignore the vast majority of the people as irrelevant to the outcome and not worth bothering with from a campaign perspective.
For example, in 2015, the Conservatives chose to ignore 550 of the 650 constituencies as irrelevant to their campaign (source: Tim Ross’ book documenting the campaign).
In 2017 68% of the votes cast were irrelevant in determining who got elected (source: Electoral Reform Society).
PR is necessary in order to get the politicians to bother with all of us, the people, not just the swing voters in the marginals.
August 6, 2018
All political parties focus their election efforts on key marginal seats
That doesn’t mean they ignore all the others.
No votes are irrelevant.
They all count and are an expression and indeed a warning to the party that forms a government that all voters need to be considered otherwise at the next election you will reap the result and fall from power.
August 7, 2018
I would suggest you have a read of Tim Ross’ book. Voters in the 550 were effectively ignored, getting nothing more than a single generic leaflet and minimal to zero campaigning effort.
In terms of determining the result, most votes are irrelevant (68% in 2017). They count for nothing other than an opinion poll which is why the Conservatives lost their parliamentary majority on a 5.5% vote share increase. If all votes counted, such a significant improvement as a 5.5% share increase would not deliver a worse outcome.
August 5, 2018
What ended the Conservative Government in 1997 was all the sleaze and cash for questions row. The economy took a hit because of the ERM mistake, but was getting better by the time of the election, enough for the Labour Government to record a surplus initially, before they ramped up their ability to waste money.
Labour got into power by putting off their socialist clothes and pretending to be capitalist. Tony Blair was the cool guy of the day and charmed the gullible, though he seemed shallow to me.
I don’t remember the EU having much to do with it.
Reply We lost thanks to the ERM recession. Look at the polling graphs and it is clear
August 5, 2018
The economy was recovering, but the Tory poll ratings were not recovering …
August 5, 2018
Reply to reply:
In my view, both were true to a greater or lesser extent.
What worries me in the here and now though, there is a lame duck Prime Minister in office that few seem to want (I sure as hell don’t!). Because May is so weak, Labour think they can now win any possible General Election by default and so the Blairite wing wish to replace Corbyn with one of their own, another slimy pro-EU Blair type. They would offer an end to austerity and dangle many carrots to make it seem as though they were on the people’s side.
We can kiss goodbye to Brexit if that happens because they will claim to have a new mandate, so whatever the eventuallity, it looks like we are going to get Brexit in name only – unless we can get rid of May and put a true Brexiteer in her place.
This is where it will take guts and commitment, but as yet, I can’t see where that is going to come from. Were one to stand, the Brexiteers might become isolated and the Tory remainers could make some kind of ‘deal’ with the others to get a much watered-down Brexit through the Commons.
This is not what the people voted for in the 2016 referendum, but it would show the glaring disparity between parliament and the people, and the lengths to which the former would be prepared to go to usurp the electorate.
Tad
August 5, 2018
When did politics replace morality as the guiding force of politicians and public servants? Early 1970’s?
And the point is?
Well, in the real world outside of politics most decent people behave morally. They are guided in their actions by their sense of what is right and what is wrong.
In contrast, in the world of politics, participants behave according to political considerations rather than by doing what is right which is the type of politics I would wish to see
Leave won the EU referendum. Doing the right thing would mean the UK government taking all necessary steps to guarantee an exit. What does May do? Well, May behaves politically rather than morally though she’s been behaving like this all her political life. Halting ‘Stop and Search’ is a classic example of her pathetic, political pandering to vested interest pressure groups
This politician makes me cringe. To think this person leads our party is beyond belief. She’s even more pernicious and nefarious than Blair
A new Tory leader needs to expose Labour for what they now are and what they have been since the late 1960’s. No holding back.
The country wants to see the dismantling of Labour’s client state and Labour’s culture of PC identity politics and the authoritarianism that this as created
The political class is now so London-centric it thinks what happens in London is somehow replicated across the UK. WRONG. The rest of the UK is NOT London
August 6, 2018
Well said.
August 5, 2018
Not really.
A mixture of FPTP voting system and Cameron/May being able to con enough people enough of the time are the reasons that no new parties have appeared in Parliament. I don’t see where the Euro came into it as this was never a real issue at election time.
Remember who won the European elections.
UKIP is on the march again. It will wake up better, bigger and stronger.
60-70% of Tory voters will need a new leader and real meat on the table. Non-negotiable proposals for leaving the EU, any ex-gratia payment, immigration controls etc. before they even think about not voting UKIP. The bigger the Brexit issue becomes, the more Labour folk will flock to UKIP also. So 30% of Labour voters and 70% of Tory voters would add up, I think, to a new party taking the country by storm. Come on Mr Farage, you know what’s needed!
We won’t be fooled again.
August 5, 2018
I’m astonished that you were fooled the first time. I wasn’t. I always said that the only sure way to restore UK independence would be to vote for it, and that means voting for a party that has UK independence as it’s raison d’ĂȘtre.
August 5, 2018
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me! She thought by all accounts that she and Olly had played a blinder on Mr Davis with her secret white paper and devious behaviour and actions. Well now she knows that we all know! An analogue Prime Minister in a digital age!
August 5, 2018
Sir Joe. I agree with your post as I also think Labour voters will desert the party. For all those that firmly believe we should leave the EU neither Conservatives or Labour will deliver and we are all totally pissed off with the lot of them. Sorry for the language John but I am incensed at what is happening to your party right now.
August 5, 2018
Imagine what a lead Labour would have now if they had a decent leader. Will you replace Mrs May in time to prevent further capitulation to the EU and the UK becoming a vassal state? We can only hope that plans are well advanced for her departure and replacement by someone who believes in this country’s future, independent and self-governing. Time is running out.
August 5, 2018
We need to send a signal to the EU that we’re serious.
Sack Robbins, May, Hammond and Carnage.
August 5, 2018
The Conservative party leadership procedure is so convoluted and deceptive that the country will find itself with another âREMAIN-IACâ. There is bound to be at least ONE EU Remainiac and one true BREXITEER putting their names forward. They will never allow a one horse race with a BREXITEER candidate. In a two horse race, the EU Remaniac will win. You will then know the Conservative party is truly EU funded and Establishment controlled. If there are more than two candidates, the voting system is such that politics is played relevant to tactical voting procedure to get the ESTABLISHMENT candidate elected. So we the BREXITEERS lose regardless.
No BREXITEER will ever win as the Establishment does not want it. We ALL saw that with the âelectionâ??? of Theresa the Appeaser and the underhand shenanigans re Andrea Leadsom by the MSM and the EU funded and controlled BBC.
As much I want Theresa the Appeaser out, BORIS is NOT the man., he is devious. We need a Donald Trump.
August 5, 2018
Good morning
A very honest appraisal.
It is also worth pointing out Labour’s reneging on the referendum on the Lisbon treaty. This was the beginning of the end for them and CMD did to save what trust their was in the Conservative Party by going soft and not offering one. Hence why they were returned to office via coalition. Only when a referendum on the EU itself were they returned plus, a little scaremongering of an SNP / Labour alliance. And never forget UKIP’s 4 million votes.
The last election proved that you cannot take the electorate for granted. They will not be misled by any party next time round.
August 5, 2018
The EU is not responsible for the decline of the dinosaur parties.
Three things are.
1) The Great Recession – a decade of economic woe has sparked mass dissatisfaction.
2) The migration crisis – people have long been irrationally scared of foreigners.
3) Social media – people now exist in an echo chamber, rejecting as âfakeâ views different to theirs.
The world is going through a tough period. The forthcoming world war will not be between countries but between values. Those who us accept tolerance, opennesss and globalisation versus the haters and the petty nationalists.
August 5, 2018
Your posts do not indicate tolerance. They are filled with bile for those you perceive don’t agree with you.
August 5, 2018
@Andy
I can agree with the general thrust of what you now think.
EU nation states, in this view…are not in real human terms … states. They were created in part at a meeting in Yalta by Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin to really really help people.
Re-designing borders, upholding some borders which arguably should never have existed from a human standpoint. “There! Make those pieces work in the geo-politics and internal nation politics. Just to make it easier we’ll cut the problem in half, East and West, which will look pretty as it is naturally cut into North and South wealth-wise anyway. Human symmetry!”
Only the EU, only the EU..peacefully… had a chance.. to allow flow of people and values over borders and within borders. A noble quest in deed.
August 5, 2018
Andy
“2) The migration crisis â people have long been irrationally scared of foreigners”
There are some people in various countries who have a historic and on-going let us say “suspicion” about other peoples. They can trace their near past family trees and note family have been shot and bombed by those you think irrational. Was shooting back also irrational? Of course not.
EU nation states are disintegrating from within. Composed, in some of them, by differing groups who have their own values to which they hold fast.
The EU project is doomed.
August 5, 2018
In answer to Andy
You talk like a complete remoaner!
August 5, 2018
“Social media â people now exist in an echo chamber, rejecting as âfakeâ views different to theirs.”
Social media is dominated..study after study..you should read them by young people. So you think pensioners’ long established main stream media is true news ( Pravda..that is the Russian meaning, broadly ), and young people believe social media Fake News? Six of one and half a dozen of the other. Your views are not quite a dozen.
August 5, 2018
Don’t carry all your eggs in one basket
August 5, 2018
And here’s me thinking the decline was due to them being stuffed with career politicians, who have never had a proper job, let alone one that might equip them for running a country, and who are perceived as having no connection with the electorate.
August 5, 2018
Andy, we are fellow spirits in the Cause of Freedom.People who oppose the EU are plainly wrong. They should be re-educated. , or in the case of pensioners, it’s too late. Certainly right-winged people take advantage of ignorance. We are all the same. People who trick people into disgusting values should be imprisoned to protect everyone.
August 5, 2018
Off to the gulags with them.
Only one view is tolerated
You certainly have the correct name extreme left winger.
August 5, 2018
My word, Andy, do you ever dislodge your halo while you are energetically patting yourself on the back?
August 5, 2018
That will be civil war then ?
August 5, 2018
Truly a prophetic comment JR. if as you rightly argue that political parties espousing “more Europe” tend to lose the support of British electorates, then that is self-evidently counter-productive.
One can only gape in jaw dropping wonder therefore at Mrs. May’s set determination to put your party out of office with her Chequers plan, which she must have known is directly counter to the wishes of the electorate and, ironically, her own oft repeated “Brexit means Brexit
August 5, 2018
It took the best part of 40 years for Ted Heath to finally admit he had lied to the electorate at the time of the referendum .
‘The Common Market is all about trade it has nothing to do with sovereignty .But if through trade links and friendships formed we wish to grow closer together then we may do so if we wish .’
That was the message I received at that time loud and clear .
Later ,a year or two before he died he said ,
‘It was all there in the Treaty of Rome if you cared to read it ‘
I never thought a British PM would mislead the electorate over such a major issue .
I was wrong then and I am wrong now ; only this time it has taken a mere couple of years for the lies to be laid bare at Chequers.
Your contention that the EU damages political parties in that it induces them to act against the interests of their traditional support and the electorate at large is well made .
As is the electoral cost .
Get rid of her now !
August 5, 2018
The reason why the Brexiters in the Conservative Party have not tried to unseat Mrs. May is because the bulk of their party would vote again for Mrs. May (as they did for Mr. Major) because EU membership for them is more important than electoral success or even democracy itself.
August 5, 2018
You have an awful lot to say about the EU, an economic and political bloc you are so determined to leave. I read this morning that Liam Fox is also out there throwing shapes..it would suit him better as minister for international trade if he got out instead and drummed up some new business because whether we like it or not we are leaving next March. We are not going to B…S…the EU side into giving us some kind of a dream cherry picking deal..it is not going to happen..and still we waste all of this time with ministers abroad in the middle of summer making a holy show of themselves with the begging bowl..so time to let go..forget about them..think about our own future and how we are going to manage..for starters we need to build some more refrigerated warehousing capacity throughout the country..JIT for perishible food coming from europe is coming to an end..we have to be pragmatic and sensible as M Gove would say..no time to waste
August 5, 2018
So the Dutch rapid reaction force commanded by Germans is going to blockade Calais?
The main losers will be the farmers of France and Spain…can’t see any of them being happy about that….
August 5, 2018
And of course for PvL nothing will come out of Rotterdam to the UK…
And the 80% of RoI exports that go to/through the UK will stop, that’s not good for the Irish…
August 5, 2018
Just-in-Time is an international inventory system for components and raw materials. It does not depend on the EU.
Food arrives in refrigerated lorries that transport it rapidly to its destination.
International bilateral TIR systems ensure minimal checks.
UK borders will not hold anything up.
The French may well make a deliberate attempt to illegally hold up UK exports of food to the EU, but as reported today, if they start any such nonsense, the UK government has already planned to divert goods via the east coast to ports in Belgium and Holland, which will happily welcome the extra boost to their trade.
August 5, 2018
JR, is this going to be another thread where a Dutchman pushing propaganda for the EU has a dozen comments published while most of mine are held back in moderation?
August 5, 2018
You comments are consistently pertinent and very informative.
Maybe it’s the hyperlinks that are holding things up.
The Dutchman comments on Brexit issues with hyperbole instead of hyperlinks, and his comments serve to expose the vacuity of the remain case so it’s important to get them published promptly.
August 5, 2018
@Dennis Cooper
Most of my comments are held back in moderation too. I thoroughly understand that you can have too much of a good thing.
Just so long as I myself have read them.That is all that counts really. I do have many differences with what I write though from time to time. No one is perfect.
August 5, 2018
If it were up to me Denis, yours would take pride of place every day of the week!
Tad
August 5, 2018
Seconded !
August 5, 2018
‘Clever Clogs’ is in a deep hole, vis-Ă -vis, propagandising for the European Union. Most of his claims can be easily rebutted. I say, let him keep digging!
August 5, 2018
Don’t take it personally, but, please keep posting your input is very much appreciated…
August 5, 2018
Politicians continually talk about how the economy is the most important factor to their electors, but it’s the euro that is destroying some of the countries that adopted it.
Italy was famed for continually devaluing, but a quick check shows that the exchange rate of the lira to the pound was roughly 2000 in 1980, 2200 in 1990, 3200 in 2000 and 2174 today.
It’s painfully obvious why Italy is going the way it is.
August 5, 2018
Quite. While the euro to DM rate over ten years shows that it has remained absolutely fixed at precisely 1.955585.
The euro is literally, 100%, pegged to the DM and the German economy. A fact hiding in plain sight, and one that few appear to note and even fewer comment on.
If we had joined the euro, we would already be the serfs, vassals, slaves, already helpless in the chains in which JR’s party leader and her civil service henchmen now wish to bind us.
Time for a revolution.
August 5, 2018
Er … On 31 December 1998, the Council of the European Union fixed the irrevocable exchange rate, effective 1 January 1999, for German Mark to Euro as DM 1.95583. Italian Lira at 1936.27 to 1 Euro! Guess what, those exchange rates are still exactly the same as in 31/12/1998!
It has become obvious over the last six months, that Brexiteers are even further down the intellectual spectrum than assessed by the academics. JR, why do you publish this crap and its likes? Or have you given up on your constituency credibility rating?
August 5, 2018
acorn – Given the very large numbers on both sides it is statistically certain that the average IQ of both Leavers and Remainers is 100. However, Remainers may congratulate themselves that their PQ (Priggishness Quotient), RQ (Rudeness Quotient) and SQ (Smugness Quotient) are all very much higher.
August 5, 2018
And you can see the economic pain it has caused to countries like Italy and others.
August 5, 2018
You may claim intellectual superiority, however, your poor basic manners and lack of common decency is appalling! FYI, the rates are still the same because they were locked in perpetuity. The DM rate was at an incorrect level and the Lira should not have even been considered for assimilation. This granted the Germans a perpetual financial advantage over the other Euro members in order to fuel their export machine. Only large fiscal transfers to the weaker nations can redress this imbalance. Something that they seem reluctant to maintain.
August 6, 2018
J84. I can’t understand what acorn’s going on about. Agreed that lira into euro was 1936.27 times today’s rate of euro to pound of 1.1232 equals (effectively) 2174.8. Mancunius may have misunderstood slightly.
Based on historical Italian economics a better rate for the lira might be nearer 3000. I used to enjoy holidays in Italy but for some years they have priced themselves out.
August 5, 2018
I am beginning to think May doesnât care if the Conservatives lose the next election by a landslide, I think she sees her legacy as being keeping us in the EU which in her mind is for the good of the country and in the national interest and comes before party politics.
My guess is that the Brexit sell out means the two old parties in UK are also finished and voters will resort to new nationalist/extremist parties of various types as they have done elsewhere in the EU
August 5, 2018
You will certainly not get Corbyn & Co, if Labour happen to triumph. Blair puppet, Kier Starmer, will be swiftly pushed forward as the new unification candidate. The cabal that declined to join the Shadow cabinet are waiting patiently for Corbyn-mania to work its smoke and mirrors. Then they will move to depose the incumbents.
August 5, 2018
Roy Grainger- you are correct on one thing- Mrs May doesn’t care if the Conservatives lose the next election because she knows her own time as PM is limited but her legacy will be that she delivered what the people voted for ie. to leave.. and just as Liam Fox is belatedly realizing..so she doesn’t mind what is good for the country either because she only has one job to do and that is to get us out. All of this talk and negotiations going on is only about how things will look for the historians- the legacy issue..so sit tight and watch how it all plays out
August 5, 2018
The Tory Party will get taken over by the sensible wing and they will win the next election is my prediction. That surely is what must happen. But then with disaster no change no chance Major they actually retained him and went over the cliff with the dope.
August 5, 2018
Mr Redwood,
An interesting piece. It is plausible that the financial crisis combined with the manifestation of serious problems with the Euro’s design (a compromise that was implemented too early and with too many participants that were likely to struggle in making thgeir economies more competitive) to result in a crisis of governance that would not have occurred in a normal federation Not suggesting the EU is and will be a federation of course) . It is also plausible that in those lagging countries, the political will was lacking to strive for competitiveness (even where that would heve been possible).
You mention a few countries that have had a combination of political turmoil/change and “involuntary” austerity. These cases are all different. Greece has severe inherent competitiveness problems and joined the EUR under false pretenses. Italy has been addicted to devaluations because the traditionally governments were too weak to deal with the external competitiveness issue through the nominal wage channel (devaluations are a way to reduce real wages without touching nominal wages thus making it easier for labour politicians to be in government) and France’s incumbent parties created a legacy of featherbedding in the state sector that had to de dealt with. I am not suggesting that the electorates in the countries you mentioned were in favour of the sort of “austerity” (high pereforming countries like The Netherlands have worse conditions for workers and pensioners than France but everyone understands that the international economy has no mercy for laggards and that devaluations cure symptoms, not the condition) they used in domestic propaganda. They did and do not want to leave the EU or EUR either by fairly large majorities. Of course if Greece would leave both, that would not improve the lot of the Greeks. There would be an unavoidable mega devaluation plus a world record national default. No way the man in the street would not be affected. France is on the other end of the scale, but there the debate among non-fringe politicians (Le Pen and Melenchon on opposite ends of the spectrum excluded) is about a better EU/EUR not about abandoning it. Italy is governed by a (much more sensible and articulate) version of LePen and an even more lunatic version of Melenchon. Should lega have only Italy north of the Tiber to govern, it would be a responsible mainstream continental party, nore or less like the CSU in Germany or Vvd in Holland, it could afford to drop rhetoric and handle competitive issues (incl organized crime) effectively and fast. However Italy is a little too complex. Iberia, finally, is one of the parts that continues to grow its competitiveness (like the Visegrads) and a future asset to the EU, even poor little Portugal that did what Greece should have done without all the drama.
August 5, 2018
It was the way that different European countries had different political and taxation systems with different ways of life and dealing with the economy that led to European countries becoming free, tolerant and interesting countries to visit and live.
There was a choice.
But this was changing slowly under the EU and was speeded up immensely with the introduction of the Euro which now means that all countries are now forced to follow the German system or be forever poor.
August 6, 2018
Original Richard,
First, what is “the German system” ? Efficient, highly productive manufacturing? Reasonable (but not excessive )social and healt care? High degree of public safety (compared to Italy for instance). Low levels of corruption? I could go on. Maybe it is the word “German” that you dislike. Ans I assume that you never lived on the Continent while the Nazi Germans were occupying that. Given that the continentals, especially the ones that were occupied (Italy and Hungary were allies) have no problem with the Germans and their “system” and do their best to match German performance, have no problems, why would the British, that were not occupied or exposed to famine like Holland hate the Germans? Maybe a question for an anthropological psychiatrist?
August 6, 2018
Having a 30% advantage in the Euro value Germany has been at a great advantage with its exports.
If Germany had a floating currency unique to them they would find life a lot more tricky.
August 5, 2018
The EU undermines all national institutions. It is a deliberate policy.
Industry associations, unions, and professional bodies have to fight EU regulation in Brussels. And then their members have neither the energy or interest to participate at national level too. Even though most issues are essentially local.
The EC has a bizarre definition of subsidiarity which means they decide what can be handled locally. Rather than local organisations collectively deciding what will be better handled at a different level
August 6, 2018
What of the EU is doing these terrible things? Your own country? The Commission? The Council? National institutions may well be obsolete. Economic integration (globalization as you may call it) forces societies to adapt in order to survive. There are no drawbridges anymore. Just look at Venezuela as an example of no adaptation and Singapore as an example of deliberate and successful adaptation. Which one would you prefer?
August 5, 2018
Liam Fox says its 60/40 for a no deal. Get the bloody flags out and a glass of British sparkling wine if it happens. Some positive news I hope.
August 5, 2018
It’s not positive news according to Sky Political Correspondent Lewis Goodall; earlier this morning he told Sky viewers that a no deal Brexit would be an “utter catastrophe” for the UK.
And nobody will contradict him on that; even my modest comment on it here may well not see the light of day, at least not today and probably not tomorrow either, and he certainly won’t be taken to task by anybody in the government.
This is why Theresa May reckons that if she can just get the EU to agree with her plan for betraying us then with a big enough concerted propaganda push she might be able to dupe enough of the public into coming over to her side.
Unfortunately certain prominent people on the Leave side have been so damn careless with their language that they have made themselves, and the rest of us as well, very easy meat for unscrupulous Remoaners.
August 5, 2018
Why is it that many politicians are so seduced by the failing EU project that, once elected, they are prepared to ignore the manifestos they were elected on and act against to the wishes of their electorate. Also against the good of the country, as we witnessed to our cost, with the ERM debacle.
It becomes about them and not the people they represent so yes we will definitely seek out leadership to represent our views. The Conservative Party is currently not doing so and is likely to suffer the same fate as those parties in Greece, Italy and France.
August 5, 2018
@BOF
Brussels provides lucrative sinecures for failed politicians (eg Kinnock, Mandelson, Ashton and Patten) with generous pension enhancement opportunities and favourable tax breaks not available to the rest of us.
Loyalty is demanded in return.
August 5, 2018
Why is this not apparent to the current Conservative leadership? On paper they are highly qualified but their mega- brains are clearly closed. Mrs May should go at the very first opportunity to have a new leader in place by the Party conferrence, but is that possible under the current rules? She is clearly desparate to get us to remain within the EU umbrella.
I find the totality of the silence following her trip to the South of France fascinating to say the least.
August 5, 2018
If Tories screw up Brexit then I’ll be voting Labour even though I hate extreme left wing policies. This country needs a bit of scorched earth to allow a sensible right wing party to emerge from the ashes. Many agree.
August 5, 2018
@Yvybybgh
Don’t make up your mind until you see ukip’s manifesto, which will include abolition of the BBC Licence Fee and withdrawal from the EU (properly), among many other “populist” policies.
August 5, 2018
OK, but UKIP will need to field a candidate in Yv’s constituency for him/her to vote for. I have the impression UKIP is soldiering on with very little income at present, and will need a massive amount to stage a campaign – even just to field candidates.
Maybe time for a crowd-funder or two?
And you can just imagine the allegations Damien Collins and his tame Committee will start to throw around if somebody does give UKIP a large donation.
August 5, 2018
Abolition of the BBC licence fee is long overdue. Let them charge. They still keep up the masive lefty political bias, are pro EU, climate alarmism, and pro a bloated state and in the “envy of no one” Nhs.
Slill 4 to 1 at best on the BBC political discussion programmes are pro remain.
August 5, 2018
I think that you will be disappointed. It’ll be Blairism mk2, aka; continuity Theresa May. Their foot soldiers are still in position in Whitehall. Mr O.Robbins is a prime example!
August 5, 2018
It is far too generous to describe the Chequers proposal (the May/Robbins White Paper) as a “delayed and partial exit”. For almost every part of the existing EU treaties we supposedly “leave”, the WP proposes that we will re-join via new treaties and existing agreements. From Fish to the EU army, via a common rulebook for trade, we will be back in the EU. The Conservative party is, as you say, facing a Major extinction event.
August 5, 2018
I agree, but it’s not the party itself that needs to become extinct (although I do think the very name Conservative has unnecessarily become very toxic and might not recover.)
In the first instance it’s down to the inadequate left-leaning duplicitous remain MPs it presently has, who have never really been true Tories that need to become extinct, followed by the way such underhanded rubbish is ever selected in the first place.
A filtering process that only allows one type of candidate through, is only ever going to give us more of the same. Conservatism used to mean common sense, good house keeping, fair play, low taxation, and strong law and order and defence policies.
What happened?
Tad
August 5, 2018
Indeed economic competence, law and order with some deterrents, competent defence, lower taxes were Tory stengths. Now none of these apply.
The best you can say now is not quite as bad as Corbyn’s Labour/SNP.
August 5, 2018
Clue up; it’s people like JR who are in the wrong party.
August 5, 2018
With typical Express hyperbole, the headline is “Expert TRASHES claims typical Leave voter is ‘poor’ as new report blames Brexit on Osborne”.
âAnd your typical Leave voter was a conservative Tory voter who wasnât rich but wasnât particularly poor, living in the South of England who had watched as far as they were concerned – and theyâre right – a country slowly fall apart and their own children and grandchildren being unable to buy homes, start a family. âTheyâve done everything theyâve been told to do and yet they werenât looking at the rosy future theyâd been promised in the 80s and 90s and they were angry.â
Professor Dorlingâs comments come as a new research from the University of Warwick suggested that George Osborneâs austerity policies directly led to Britain voting to leave the EU. The report read: “The austerity-induced increase in support for Ukip is sizeable and suggests that the tight 2016 EU referendum result (leave won by a margin of 3.5 percentage points) could have well resulted in a victory for remain, had it not been for austerity.”
August 5, 2018
Osborne had little to do with it. The referendum vote was won by a combination of immigration concerns and the loss of sovereignty to the EU.
Since the 2008 credit crunch, UK governments have not adopted austerity policies, but have continued to spend, spend, spend.
Austerity is where you tighten your belt to pay off your debt, not continue as you had done by borrowing even more.
August 5, 2018
Exactly – the benefit- and state-job dependents all voted Remain, not Leave.
The rest of us have never noticed any ‘austerity’ – except for LA councillors (who persist in grabbing up to ÂŁ60-80,000 p.a. from the local taxpayer) trying hard to close local libraries in order to stick it to the middle classes.
August 5, 2018
Show me evidence of where the government has “continued to spend, spend, spend”. I am assuming you know the difference between Current and Constant historic pricing.
August 5, 2018
Spending by the State increases every year.
340 bn in 2000
800 bn by 2020
August 6, 2018
So you don’t know the difference between current and constant prices.
August 6, 2018
Your post tried to blame the referendum result on “Osborne’s austerity”
We have never had austerity.
Just a small reduction in the level of increase of state spending.
August 6, 2018
Lots of austerity in the private sector and in small businesses over the last ten years. Wages in the state sector with pensions included are still about 150% of those in the private sector and for so little useful output. Much of the “output” is actually a net negative.
August 5, 2018
Actually, we English have a rather better idea why we voted to leave the EU than a bunch of EU funded German economists; furthermore, #3.1 contains the most ridiculous formula I have ever seen. Why do economists pretend they are scientists, even?
August 6, 2018
Have daft lefty magic money tree economists done more damage to people than Oxford PPE graduates I wonder?
August 5, 2018
If our Exit from the EU is NOT delivered in full as voted for I forsee the split in the Tory Party being highlighted by Labour, the BBC et al. They will make much of all Tory MPs who campaigned against the wishes of their “vote leave” constituencies and supported Remain. The Likely outcome is that the Tories will lose the next General Election. It is to be hoped that those Tory MPs who supported “Leave” will possibly form a new Party putting the interests of the UK first and properly representing the wishes of their constituents.
August 5, 2018
The politicos have God syndrome and once elected always know better than us plebs who invariably are better qualified and experienced paying our taxes to further their personal careers. They do not understand patriotism or sovereignty. Can you imagine America, Japan, Canada, Australia agreeing that Chequers sell out?
August 10, 2018
What would that new party do once it achieved “Leave”? Keep Leaving?
August 5, 2018
Also doing damage is the FPTP voting system . It is outmoded ,unfair and lands us time after time with an unrepresentative government . Your thoughts John ?
August 5, 2018
And just to ram home the point:
– I voted to kick Heath out in February 1974
– I voted to kick Major out in 1997
– And I will vote to kick Mrs May out in 2022 or whenever
The intransigence of the European Commission, France and Germany is now our best hope of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit.
Let’s be aware of the big danger: Mrs May will sign up to joining the EEA, get Labour support and sign a Treaty with the EU to that effect. In this case, to regain our sovereignty, we will have to withdraw our signature from the International Law of Treaties that Lord Caradon signed us up to in 1970.
“We must be free or die who speak the tongue that Shakespeare wrote.”
August 5, 2018
‘Parties that want to govern have to please enough people enough of the time.’
I disagree, they have to CON enough people enough of the time!
I am bitter because in the recent past, I have given my vote to those whom I was led to believe would deliver on Brexit. In years past, to forcefully pursue a policy of renegotiation of the UK’s EU membersip. Each time, I have been disappointed by squirming politicians who did, and do, their level best to go against their promises.
As with an errant or fraudulent company director, they really ought to be disbarred from holding office. Yet as in the case of Major, they seem to come back to give their advice on matters they really ought not to. To those who have long memories, they always will be figures of ridicule, but hey, when was the last time we saw a politician show genuine humility for delivering a disaster?
Tad Davison
Cambridge
August 5, 2018
Mrs May is not leading. She is searching every nook & cranny for a wormhole-type path into some unknown EU heaven. Former followers within our frontier observe her naivety & wait patiently for her to stop.
Her increasing efforts prop up only worthlessness in despair. She may as well dig a hole in the English Channel with kitty heels, hoping the water will drain away to keep our land joined to the EU.
It is beyond time for a leading Brexiteer to declare Mrs Mayâs mission impossible. A fit leader would pull us all straight ahead into freedom on the path to better.
August 5, 2018
“Mrs May needs to remember just how much damage too much EU has done to the Conservative party before.”
With respect John you can remind this wooden, stubborn, duplicitous, remaining socialist as much as you like but she isn’t listening. No amount of reminding will make a difference. You know it, we know it, most of your sensible (agreed there aren’t many) colleagues know it, you need to get rid of this walking liability and get rid now. Otherwise the party calling themselves Conservative can expect to be in opposition for a long time to come.
August 5, 2018
Today Liam Fox – a man who claimed a deal with the EU would be the easiest deal ever – says there will probably be no deal.
Like most Tory Brexiteers MPs Mr Fox did not understand what he was voting for in the referendum. He evidently had never heard of the customs union. He had little clue about trade. Staggeringly two years as trade secretary hasnât helped him. People who actually understand trade look at him and shake their heads. Awful.
Still a no deal Brexit is the best outcome for Remainers. The chaos would lead to the quick overthrow of the government, the collapse of the Conservative party, the arrest and imprisonment of the leading Leave liars – and a quick reentry into the EU. Bring it on.
August 5, 2018
Man, you are right out of Nineteen Eighty Four but not the victims. If educated, you perhaps would be dangerous.
August 5, 2018
He said “should”, not “would”, even according to the Guardian …
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history
“Speaking to BBC Radio 4âs Today programme on Thursday, the international trade secretary said: âThe free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.”
See that, Andy? He said it “should” be one of the easiest, not “would”; I don’t know whether you were taught the difference at school, but anyway now you have been put right so if you repeat your claim it will now be a lie not just an error.
Why “should” it be easy? Because:
âWe are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.â
But while it “should” be it may not be:
“However, he went on to concede that securing a deal would probably not be easy in practice. âThe only reason that we wouldnât come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics,â Fox said.”
Do you understand now?
August 5, 2018
Andy,
You may well get your wish for a âno-dealâ (really a WTO) Brexit.
This is because the EC wants either the UK to join a/the CU/SM/ECJ (preferred for total control over the UK with no UK representation) or, if this is not achievable by their UK representative because she failed to get a majority in the last GE, to go to WTO terms.
An FTA will not be on offer as it will look like the UK is âgetting its cake and eating itâ and the EC wants the UK to be seen to be punished âpour encourages les autresâ.
Also, the FTA option would mean the EC benefiting substantially less from the 80% it receives on customs duties as compared to the other two options.
BTW, it was the strong likelihood of the EU in future arresting and imprisoning those persons with whom it does agree that was one of the reasons I voted to leave whilst we could.
August 6, 2018
Original Richard,
“Strong likelihood of the EU in future arresting and imprisoning those persons with whom it does agree?
What does that actually mean/
August 5, 2018
“Sir John Major sacrificed his party and did huge damage to the UK economy by insisting on joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism.”
Worse still, he signed the Maastricht Treaty, giving away more of our sovereignty without a mandate from the country via a referendum.
August 5, 2018
John, I donât think your party understands the anger there is outside the London bubble and itâs not just about Brexit. A few extracts from your manifesto: Reduce Taxes â they have gone up. Relocate government functions â this has decimated jobs in our town. Reduce immigration – even where it has control, it has failed to get a grip. Affordable energy costs â gone up. Stopping Tax Evasion â Amazon? Support Coastal Communities â fisheries sell out. Security from Crime & Terrorism â London knife crime. Leave the EU â fudge. Reforming the Justice System â TR. Name one good thing that has been delivered? Just give us a proper Brexit and start fixing the mess this country has become.
August 5, 2018
@ Christine
Very well said.
August 5, 2018
A very good point: domestic and fiscal policies under this government are weak, weak, weak.
August 5, 2018
It is a measure of the corruption caused by the EU of our politics that we have a PM, government and Parliament who appear to be prepared to ditch the EU referendum and the manifestos of the two main parties in the last GE and continue with membership of the EUâs SM/CU/ECJ via Mrs. May âChequers Planâ.
If this happens, then we are in great danger of losing democracy in the UK as it would appear that referendums and manifestos count for nothing.
It will therefore be necessary for all voters who believe in democracy, whether they be EU leavers or remainers, to ensure they do not vote for any MP in the next GE who has not supported a true Brexit.
I do not believe that our Conservative/Labour Party duopoly cannot be broken if the voters vote for those people (not parties) they really support.
There are sufficient leave voters to enable the composition of Parliament to change dramatically even with our FPTP system.
August 5, 2018
I love the EU. You can eat anywhere
August 5, 2018
Perhaps you’re confusing ‘EU’ with ‘Europe’. Otherwise, true.
A bit like the UK, then.
August 5, 2018
PS Or was that your attempt at irony? If so – sorry!
August 6, 2018
I’m sure you wouldn’t know
August 5, 2018
JR, I do not doubt that you have found parallels between graphs of disenchantment with the post-ERM recession and the collapse of the Tory vote in 1997. But I question the assumption that this was the underlying cause of that collapse.
I lived through the economic turbulence of the 1990s, and I can recall the shock of ultra- if temporarily-high (17%) mortgage rates. Yet by 1997 the recession and the (still little understood) ERM débacle was already behind us, the markets were recovering well, the economy was on the up.
What won the election for Labour was the public perception of Major’s perceived bumbling versus Blair’s smooth-tongued Labour-Lite fraud. Blair presented Labour as no longer toxic, even trustworthy (a lie I never swallowed, but many did). If anything, it was Blair’s sloganised europhile cosmopolitanism that won over many swing voters who in 1997 still believed in the inherent goodness of the EU project, buoyed up by a largely europhile broadsheet press.
Few outside the HoC really grasped the significance of Maastricht: its intention was craftily masqueraded by the drafting of the Treaty. And Major further deliberately downplayed Maastricht’s effects – partly by trumpeting Britain’s ‘opt-out’ from the social chapter.
Most swing voters are easily swayed in their GE decisions. The drip-drip-drip media frenzy about e.g. Stephen Milligan, Tim Key, David Mellor, and laughable PR schemes such as the M-way cones hotline, as well the media-fed impression that the Tory government was Not Doing Anything, played into Blair’s hands.
And he was ‘new’, a younger challenger for the King-Priesthood of the Sacred Grove. Sometimes, the opening scene of Frazer’s The Golden Bough and Canetti’s study of mass behaviour, Masse und Macht can explain a GE result better than all the graphs.
Reply Not true. the most comm9n refrain on the doorsteps was â I cannot afford to vote Conservativeâ referrin* back to the ultra high mortgage rates of the ERM era
August 5, 2018
Reply to reply: In which case, if in 1997 the voters were still traumatised by events of four-five years earlier, all the more reason to dump a leader whose incompetence and U-turning treachery in 2018 will still be recalled in 2022!
August 5, 2018
True. The EU destroyed political parties but in many ways that destruction was signed for by the UK and others. It was and is inevitable. We had very intelligent people who signed up to it, democratically elected.
They were not traitors. Genuinely thinking it would be economically advantageous to join more strongly with wartime allies and enemies alike and compounding our collective power. This they weighed in the balance, and knew would diminish our singular politic.
Our history, should have taught them, that a thousand years without external invasion on foot, our land is forever our Mind. It is stamped through like a stick of seaside rock British.
August 5, 2018
Well said, Island of Rock. We should have learnt from German belligerence through the ages. It’s just the way they are. ‘EU’ and ‘Germany’ seem to be becoming synonymous. etc ed
Mitteleuropa for their own influence was what they’ve wanted – and they almost achieved it.
Almost – except for that stick of seaside rock.
August 5, 2018
‘They then say we’re not good enough .. but we’re going to do it anyway ‘ there’s something inside so strong etc..
August 5, 2018
People ask who would you replace her with?,
It probably doesn’t matter as long as he or she is a “Leaver”. What it would do is put the EU on its back foot rather than allowing continued faux negotiation with Weak & Wobbly and her Civil Service cohorts…
August 5, 2018
@ Know – Dice
“It probably doesnât matter as long as he or she is a âLeaverâ.
I’d like to see a leader who is prepared to remind the french and the belgian walloons that they only exist because of the UK.
I’d also like to see a leader get over there and bounce the likes of barnier, merkel and macron on their heads.
We don’t need a corrupt liberal minded sissy vicar’s daughter, we need a patriotic warrior.
August 5, 2018
A Leaver in charge would be good. Youâd have no one to blame
August 5, 2018
It is amazing that in a period of such unpopular leadership, the opposition party is not becoming stronger and dominating the field. Corbyn seems almost blanketed from Brexit by his own on going problems – almost too convenient. Although, TM is portrayed in social media as having no support, I think that much of the electorate is still behind her as there is no way now of getting an acceptable alternative hence ridiculing our country even more than we have already done so and totally upsetting the Brexit applecart!
August 5, 2018
Some view Corbyn is being assaulted from the right careerists of his party irrespective of what noble apparent sentiments they seemingly possess. Virtue’s second-hand clothes.
Corbyn’s views are not my own in their entirety … very few in fact, nearing to zero when one factors in ramifications. But he aint anyone’s racist.
August 5, 2018
Helen
Corbyn is a fervent and arch Brexit supporter. He is pretending to favour remain to keep his party MP’s on side until enough of the strong ones can be replaced with Monumentum candidates . If Corbyn becomes PM we WILL leave the EU. He has to in order to carry out his nationalisation policies
August 5, 2018
“The UK parties have been less damaged because self preservation â and a lot of pressure from a few of us in Parliament â kept them out of signing up to the Euro”
Seeing that the ÂŁ has dropped like a stone and the euro has replaced the ÂŁ as world reserve currency I find your comment very puzzling.
And seeing that you believe that leaving the EU which is the largest wealthiest economy in the world and its first trade power accounting for one third of world total, is a success story is even odder.
Added to the fact that this Brexit disaster has split the country and created so much bitterness and division
And you want to be outside withering on the fringes? Maybe dreaming of a long gone empire or even commonwealth?
August 6, 2018
Some corrections needed in your post margaret
The pound has not “dropped like a stone”
It trades near it’s long term average to the Euro and US dollar.
Whilst we were in the EU the pound rose and fell greatly.
From near parity v the Euro to 1.65
The dollar rose and fell from near parity to nearly 2 dollars to the pound.
USA is the largest wealthiest economy in the world followed by China
You talk as if the EU is a nation
It is not a nation.
It is just 28 nations where you have incorrectly and artificially added their economies together.
August 5, 2018
The Answer to Brexit, is the EEA!! Also called the Norway Option. Itâs an off the shelf solution, and yes, freedom of movement can be controlled!! The following individuals support it:- Simon Jenkins, Peter Hitchens, Richard North, Christopher Booker, Pete North,
and myself. I am not the first to suggest it, but it would be a big step in the right direction!! John Redwood is totally opposed to it!!
August 6, 2018
Then it must be good -:)
August 6, 2018
Andrew Fairfoull, You suggest something that the EU is not offering, that is under the EU’s (and CJEU) control, that puts the UK back under about a third of EU laws, that doesn’t in fact allow us to control immigration (read the EEA Agreement, where the “Four Freedoms” must be promoted, and Art112 and Art113 are only short duration fixes which must be eliminated as soon as possible). It’s not Leave.
August 6, 2018
Nick C To put it simply EEA ( Norway Option) is the only deal that will solve the oncoming crisis, itâs not ideal, it will get us out, with the minimum of disruption. Then we can begin the process of future withdrawal, the EEA is the start not the end point. Thanks for your response, this is the only solution, anything else will result in absolute chaos.
August 7, 2018
It is leaving, but not jumping off a cliff. Highly desirable but hard to get.
August 5, 2018
I am sure from every , ALL…honest..perspectives..we all hope Mr Corbyn will do very well in deed at his forthcoming Labour Conference.
His triumph or disaster will be good news for those who oppose the Labour Party yet genuinely respect that it is a democratic and wholesome part of everything that is British without dilution.
August 5, 2018
Mr. Redwood,
Your article illustrates that history shows that the Conservative Party are so pro EU that they are willing to throw themselves electorally to the wolves in order to join or remain in the EU.
Mrs. Thatcher was removed because the Party knew she would not sign the Maastricht Treaty and was replaced by someone more compliant, even though they knew that would lead to electoral defeat.
Mrs. May is no different and will willingly see the Party decimated at the next election as long as she can achieve the Partyâs wish for the UK to remain in the EU.
August 5, 2018
This is what happens when we have a PM :
a) was not vetted for ideological or patriotic compatibility.
b) who has french ancestry.
c) is a vicar’s daughter and therefore likely to appease i.e. lily livered when it comes to defending the nation.
Churchill needs a reference here…..’an appeaser is someone who feeds crocodiles, hoping to be eaten last’
…..you wait and see, this woman will get a cushy number in brussels, just like Kinnock. Though she will surely have buried the conservative party beforehand.
August 5, 2018
UNLESS…..there is another motive for not sacking May;
She’s so bloody useless that leaving her where she is ensures no deal, thereby giving us the brexit we voted for.
August 6, 2018
The EU intends to replace all national parties with EU wide political parties as part of its drive to reduce the status of member nation states until it mutates into a nation state itself: viz. the Federal State of Europe.
I am sure it is not lost on Mrs May’s Remainers that the treaty changes needed to complete economic and monetary union as the final step before the mutation will be well in hand by the end of the transition deal. I believe her hope is that at that time UK will be able to slide neatly into the Federal State.
August 6, 2018
Well, my comment about the official French government “Project Spartacus” to undermine the City has been vaporised, so we can carry on believing that this has only started because we voted to leave the EU.