Amphibians do jump out of water that gets too hot

There were many years ago apparently  scientific experiments to test the idea that if you left an amphibian in water which you heated up gradually it would not notice, dying when it got too hot. I always thought that a strange idea based on most cruel experiments. Most people think it is untrue. An animal will jump out when it senses the water is getting too hot. I am glad they do, for their sakes.

Some in the political world use the story of the boiling water as an analogy based appropriately on a falsehood  to describe the way some people apparently will stick around supporting policies and proposals they dislike intensely if they are introduced slowly and stealthily. There has been a rumour about the Remain forces in the government using this technique to get more Leavers to accept more and more of the EU they are seeking to leave, by gradually introducing these features back into the promised Brexit the government is arranging. Thus we saw a progress of more EU controls, payments and laws being introduced from the original Lancaster House statement to the Florence speech, and from Florence to the Mansion House text, to end up with the Chequers proposals.

Gradually the crucial features of Brexit were eroded or removed. Instead of getting all our money back from Day 1 we were told there would be a big and lingering bill. Instead of getting freedom to set our own benefits and work permit policies, we were told we needed to accept some freedom of movement and some payment of benefits to EU citizens on arrival. Instead of getting full freedom to negotiate our own trade deals, we were told we had to live with  accepting many EU rules and regulations which might get in the way of trade agreements. Instead of leaving on 29 March 2019 we were told it would be delayed for another 21 months for no good reason. Instead of getting control of our fish from next year, the timetable slipped and the language implied we would continue to give away much of our fish stock.

As any sensible person would predict, the latest version of Chequers represents unacceptably hot water, so the Brexiteers have indeed jumped out. The government has kindly proved again the commonsense view that you cannot get people to change their minds on fundamental issues by seeking to change them gradually and by stealth. They do notice, just as any animal spots the water getting too hot.

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104 Comments

  1. Nig l
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:16 am | Permalink

    Indeed. They think we are too stupid to notice. Meanwhile Corbyn is running rings round you.

    • Lifelogic.
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:08 am | Permalink

      Indeed they do seem to think that the people are too stupid to notice. In fact the population make far better decisions in general than politicians. This as they have their interest at heart rather than politicians & bureaucrats interests at heart. We would not have had the ERM, the millennium dome, the Irak war, many of the EU treaties, HS2, the expensive greencrap energy, smart meters ….. had they been given any real say.

      Corbyn is just promising almist everything to anyone. The people will surely not fall for his magic money tree – and yet no one has to pay agenda. The McDonnall policies would make everyone poorer and kill almost all investment in the UK, it would kill the private rented property sector, kill jobs, kill much bank lending and make almost everyone far poorer. True the BBC has fallen for it as one would expect. It is made worse by the fact that May/Hammond are basically doing this too just in a light version.

      Conservative need to oppose this economic insanity and point out why it would be so very damaging.

      • Dave, Spencers Wood
        Posted September 27, 2018 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

        Just being against things is not a recipe for long term success. The Conservative party has to have some positive policies. What do they stand FOR?

      • Gary C
        Posted September 27, 2018 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

        @ Lifelogic

        Re: ‘The people will surely not fall for his magic money tree’

        Unfortunately many did at the last election and with the Conservatives attitude towards the wishes of the electorate the next election could well see a Labour government succeeding albeit them leading a coalition.

        If Corbin does get in the UK had better change the national anthem to ‘Nearer my God to Thee’.

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

      Nig 1, There were daft Conservatives who joined Labour and voted for Jeremy Corbyn. Having lived through the extreme left 1970s I told them they were playing with fire. Mr Corbyn is not a jolly jape – he is a cunning (authiritarian ed). And some of his supporters are worse.

  2. sm
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:21 am | Permalink

    I understand your use of the analogy, John; on the other hand, a spouse often stays with a brutal partner for years in the hope that things will improve, that one rare ‘good’ day presages many more, only to wake up one day and find that the relationship has been totally corrupted.

    I can’t help feeling that, as with Mary Tudor and Calais, Theresa May will find Chequers written on her heart.

    • Peter Wood
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:36 am | Permalink

      sm,

      Yes I agree, I presumed our host is talking about the PM rather than the nation as a whole; we have decided to jump, but the PM seems to want to stay and boil!

      What does it say about the mental state of a PM who seems not to hear the majority and ignores advice from sensible and respected sources?

      Macron now says he wants the UK to return, no doubt somebody has told him that France, being the second largest economy after we leave, will have to make very much larger net contributions. See, a national leader CAN make a 180 turn when money is involved!

    • matthu
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      Your analogy, sm, is spot on.

      And the trouble is, it has not been Theresa May on her own who has been betraying conservatism in this country: many others have been tainted by going along for the ride, cheering her on.

      The Tories cannot hope to rescue their marriage with the electorate without a complete restatement of their values and acceptance that you cannot nurture a marriage while privately hoping to carry on with your vices.

    • bigneil
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 9:13 am | Permalink

      ” written on her heart. ” . . .should that be spelled hEUrt instead?

    • Adam
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

      After being flogged to death the rejected Chequers fiasco re-emerges like a Remainder of Dracula.

      It needs a Brexit stake through its heart before it bites back with a Revenge Referendum.

  3. Mick
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:24 am | Permalink

    Government leaflet to every household, 6 April 2016.
    “A once in a generation decision.
    The referendum on Thursday, 23 June is your chance to decide if we should remain in or leave the European Union.
    The government believes it is in the best interests of the UK to remain in the EU.
    This is the way to protect jobs, provide security, and strengthen the UK’s economy for every family in this country – a clear path into the future, in contrast to the uncertainty of leaving.
    This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.”
    All that you need to do is print the text of the leaflet that cost £9 million delivered to each household trying to con us to stay shackled to the dreaded Eu, but we weren’t con and saw through the lies and decided to leave , so just get on with it and get us out with no strings or under hand dealings to keep us tied to the corpse called the Eu

    • Bryan Davies
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:20 am | Permalink

      What a great idea – why not crowd fund a front page in the Times

    • Bryan Davies
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:23 am | Permalink

      Just a thought – there could also be a leaflet drop at the Tory Conference

    • JoolsB
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:23 am | Permalink

      Well said Mick. You speak for the majority of us who voted Brexit. Just a pity the majority of 650 self serving MPs want to thwart the will of the people.

      • Sauron
        Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

        If you could be so kind as to tell us what Brexit means, I’d be much obliged. Is it what Mrs May thinks it means? Or Mr Corbyn? Or Mr Grieve? Or Mr Redwood? or Mr Farage? Leave could mean a million different versions. That is why we need a referendum once a deal is done. Only then will we really know what leave means

        • Edward2
          Posted September 28, 2018 at 6:33 am | Permalink

          What does remaining in the eu mean?
          Can we have a referendum on that too.

        • libertarian
          Posted September 28, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

          Sauron

          Ok, first you tell us what the EU means, what further restrictions the EU will be implementing, where the EU is heading, what the EU is going to do about youth unemployment , what the EU is going to do to resolve the immigration crisis etc

          However heres what Brexit means

          It means what we voted for, leaving the EU and all its institutions and becoming an independent ( 3rd country in EU speak) just like 120 other countries in the world

          Its not difficult

    • bigneil
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 9:16 am | Permalink

      And from that Thursday the 23rd June – how many £million in our daily “contributions” have been handed over while the farce drags on? Ex-soldiers still homeless while new, non-contributing arrivals turn up for their free do-nothing lives.

    • Mick
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

      David Cameron, House of Commons 22 Feb 2016.
      “So, Mr Speaker, I am today commencing the process set out under our Referendum Act to propose that the British people decide our future in Europe through in-out referendum on Thursday 23 June.
      Mr Speaker, this is a vital decision for the future of our country. And we should also be clear that it is a final decision.
      An idea has been put forward that if the country votes to leave we could have a second renegotiation and perhaps another referendum.
      This is a straight democratic decision – staying in or leaving – and no government can ignore that.
      Having a second renegotiation followed by a second referendum is not on the ballot paper.
      And for a Prime Minister to ignore the express will of the British people to leave the EU would not just be wrong, it would be undemocratic.
      On the diplomacy, the idea that other European countries would be ready to start a second negotiation is for the birds. Many are under pressure for what they have already agreed.
      Then there is the legality. I want to spell out this point very carefully. If the British people vote to leave there is only one way to bring that about – and that is to trigger Article 50 of the Treaties and begin the process of exit.
      And the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
      Let me be absolutely clear how this works. It triggers a 2-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit.
      At the end of this period, if no agreement is in place then exit is automatic unless every 1 of the 27 other EU member states agrees to a delay.
      We should also be clear about what would happen if that deal to leave wasn’t done within 2 years.
      Our current access to the single market would cease immediately after 2 years were up.
      And our current trade agreements with 53 countries around the world would lapse.”

      All clear enough. Can somebody explain this to the remoaners in and around the Westminster bubble because it’s not rocket science to us up north

      • Mark B
        Posted September 28, 2018 at 5:06 am | Permalink

        Well done. And thank you.

  4. Iain Gill
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:25 am | Permalink

    correct

    same could be said about mass immigration which has been drip fed on the population by the political class of all flavours

    the people still want massive reductions but the political class still say one thing and do another, and constantly drip drip drip ever changing approaches to keeping the floodgates open into the system

    more than anything the way the post modernists in the social science uni departments have brain washed this generation of the political class is changing things by stealth that nobody signed up for

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 11:58 am | Permalink

      Iain Gill, Yes, the long march through our institutions by the cultural-marxists.

  5. Ian wragg
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:25 am | Permalink

    Has anyone told Treason May.
    She carries on regardless capitulation after capitulation.
    We now have the Liebor party agreeing with her.

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 11:55 am | Permalink

      Ian Wragg, Yes, the further towards Remain that Mrs May moves the more the Labour party can out-Remain her. It’s a vicious spiral.

      Unfortunately that boosts Chequers because although it is a revolving-door Remain, it still isn’t as bad as Mr Corbyn’s Labour. So a lot of Tories will continue to tolerate Mrs May, not because she is offering Leave (she isn’t) but because she is less bad than the alternative.

      How have we come to the point of throwing away such an opportunity as Leave? It is as though our “leaders” just want power, even though they are satisfied with being in power over a third rate province of the EU empire.

  6. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:28 am | Permalink

    Oh, yes, the water is certainly boiling John. A bit like my blood pressure and equally my temper over the devious way May is going about all of this. We are not stupid and can see which way this is going. She is doing immense harm to her own party and the integrity of her MPs.

    • Lifelogic.
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:13 am | Permalink

      Quite likely that May will give us Corbyn and bury the Tories again just as John ERM and no apology Major did. Do these people never learn? It was Thatcher policies that wins elections and even she made many silly mistakes not cutting the state sufficiently, signing EU treaties …..(John Major being the main mistake).

  7. hans christian ivers
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:38 am | Permalink

    JR,

    An experienced politician like you should have more diversity in your contributions, out of the last ten postings nine are about the Eu and Brexit, considering the problems we face as a country , you should be looking much wider

    Reply My recent postings are about migration, the economy, housing and public facilities. These all matter to my voters. All the time we are in the EU we have to discuss the big 8mpact the EU has on these matters

    • Edward2
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

      Why not start your own blog hans?
      You tell us you know exactly what everyone wants to read.
      Therefore it would be hugely popular.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

        Edwaed2

        I would not like to take the fun out of your deep insights on this siete

        • Edward2
          Posted September 28, 2018 at 6:35 am | Permalink

          I get lots of fun reading your efforts on here hans, so do carry on.

    • Bob
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:42 am | Permalink

      @hans

      “you should have more diversity in your contributions, “

      To paraphrase C4’s Cathy Newman, so what you’re really saying is don’t mention the Brexit?

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

      Really this issue eclipses the others at the moment. It needn’t have done, had Mr Cameron kept his original promise and had we left the EU last June. It needn’t have done, had Mrs May not made such heavy weather of her “negotiation”.
      Had politicians kept their promises, and had we had good negotiators in place, by now we would be trading in a Canada-type scenario, and people would have forgotten about Irish borders had the question even been asked.
      24 June 2016 we should have entered A50
      25 June 2016 we should have proposed an FTA for EU’s reply by 30 July 2016.
      1 August 2016 we should have been either trading as a free nation under a Canada type FTA or preparing over 23 months for WTO trade.

      The fact that none of these has happened means we are being subjected to some tricks and games behind the scenes which will probably bury the Conservative Party in the long run. It is pointless complaining about the open games being played by Corbyn when the Conservatives are playing covert games.

    • Chris
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 10:26 am | Permalink

      Hci, set up your own blog.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

        Chris

        thank you for your compliment I will consider it

    • Anonymous
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 11:16 am | Permalink

      Everything is coloured by the EU. It’s still at the top of our decision making machinery.

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 11:44 am | Permalink

      Hans, You keep denying that the EU is your country, but then you comment as though it is. Please make up your mind – UK or the EU? Because my country is leaving your corrupt undemocratic EU.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

        NickC

        You are as usual mixing up things, Europe is a continent, EU is part of the economic and political structures on this continent and Britain is a country which is part of the continent. I hope it is now more clear for you?

        • NickC
          Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:13 pm | Permalink

          Hans, You should try reading what I say. I did not mention “Europe”. Europe is not a continent. Moreover Great Britain is not part of the continent, it is the largest island of the British isles – we are separated by the English channel. Thank God. Britain is not a country even. The EU has legal personality and can sign treaties (and has done), so it is quite correct to compare the UK with the EU. Your ignorance is astounding. I hope it is now more clear for you?

          • margaret howard
            Posted September 28, 2018 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

            NickC

            “Europe is not a continent”

            “Britain is not a country even”

            Oh, DO please enlighten us what they are.

            I live in East Anglia. Is that still in Britain?

    • libertarian
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

      hans

      Totally and utterly unacceptable post. Regular readers of this forum have read wide ranging posts over a very long time on all manner of topics.

      If you dont like it start your own blog, stand for parliament and as you remainers tell us we are all going to die because of Brexit perhaps if you ceased your bullshit scare tactics we could move on to other things

      • Edward2
        Posted September 28, 2018 at 6:36 am | Permalink

        Well said libertarian as usual.

  8. DUNCAN
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:40 am | Permalink

    I cannot believe that May thinks she can deceive her own MPs in this manner.

    What we are seeing is totally orchestrated. It’s contrived. It’s deliberate. And it’s planned.

    Her mendacity and the shameless deceit of her Chancellor, Civil Servants and other advisers involved in this most appalling project of subterfuge is beyond reason and completely off the scale. It is nothing less than a full frontal attack on democracy itself and expression of total contempt for the will of the people as expressed in 2015.

    May perceives democracy as an inconvenience. That stance is beyond dangerous to be almost bordering on treason

    Most on here have been warning about placing any degree of trust in May and her pro-EU lackeys. They will betray the UK and its people and they will do it willingly and without shame

    There are threats all around us. Yesterday in Liverpool we saw an existential threat on stage. A political grotesque, almost a monster. May is not too far behind. I believe her instincts are authoritarian and very troubling

    I look forward to the time when our party is led by a politician who is a defender of our parliament, direct democracy and of our nation.

    The UK IS NOT A REGION WITHIN THE EU

    • zorro
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

      Indeed, I wonder what other subject areas in the news she might be employing mendacity and shameless deceit to try and galvanise support around her…..

      zorro

    • Chris
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

      It is indeed as serious as you write, Duncan. The situation is very dangerous for the future of democracy, and for the survival of the UK.

  9. Stred
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:02 am | Permalink

    I switched the smart on this morning and was offered a video, paid for by the FT, about the Irish border. An Irish actor moans on for 12 minutes about how Jacob and Boris don’t understand how terrible the border between North and South will be and how they are being done down. It is written by a woman and filmed with the actor walking on the birder looking very sad. At no point could any present border posts or barriers be seen. At no point did he suggest any future border posts or inability to travel freely to work or for social or shopping reasons. The only people who could decide to put in a hard border are in Brussels. With Irish logic like this, the only thing to do is get on with the ERG approved tax scheme and leave them to whinge about nothing.

    The FT and others are spending a lot of money on frog boiling and it will take a lot of effort to neutralize it. The video already had hundreds of thousands of views.

    • Chris
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

      The Remainers and activists are running circles round the Brexiters. Big money is being paid to destroy Brexit and keep us in, or enslaved to the EU.

      • margaret howard
        Posted September 28, 2018 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

        Chris

        ” keep us in, or enslaved to the EU”
        ==

        I voted to be a member in the 1975 EU referendum and it’s the best thing that happened to us.

        The improvements EU membership have brought us are unimaginable.

        During my son’s school holidays he and other school friends would spend a month each year using the wonderful student railcard right across Europe with sleeper trains for convenience and cheapness and having access to free health services when they needed it. Later on he attended many semesters at European universities and he is quite capable of conversing in about half a dozen languages, all of it invaluable before he went to study at Cambridge.

        I am sure that those young people like my son and his friends will build on this and help create a Europe that will be the envy of the world. This present crisis is a challenge that I am sure will be met and overcome.

        And not just on a personal level.

        International polls show the EU is the most trusted major power.

        500 million inhabitants (7.3% of the world) the EU in 2014 generated 24% of global nominal GDP, becoming the largest economy in the world, bigger than any other economic union or country.

        26 out of 28 countries have a very high Human Development Index. In 2012, the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

        We must Exit Brexit!

        Reply I was a teenager before we joined the EEC. I travelled around Europe by rail on a UK passport with great ease, learned French and Spanish at school and went abroad to practice them. I could have attended a continental university if I wished but preferred to study in my own language. After we leave there will still be plenty of travel, student exchanges, joint ventures between EU and UK universities and businesses etc. We are taking back control of our money and laws, not shifting the country to another part of the world and closing the borders.

        • margaret howard
          Posted September 29, 2018 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

          Reply

          Not on a cheap student euro rail card which made it available for all not just the well off students.

          “We are taking back control of our money”

          Seeing that we never joined the euro we never lost control of our money. In fact, considering how the pound has not only lost its world reserve currency status to the euro but also over 30% of its value we should have tried harder to join the euro

          • Edward2
            Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:03 am | Permalink

            I travelled in Europe on a cheap student railcard well before the EU existed.

            And the pound has risen and fallen against the Euro from over 1.70 down to near parity whilst we have been in the EU
            Why did those variations happen?

  10. Bob Dixon
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:20 am | Permalink

    I suspect if there were to be a re run of the referendum of June 2016 the leavers majority would be greater.

  11. Mark B
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    Today’s post sounds rather ominous, almost threatening. Not intended for us but others. It is almost as if our kind host has been pushed too far and wishes it known.

    With our supposed exit from the EU in some 26 weeks time, yes that short, we are no nearer to a final agreed outcome. As I and others have said both here and elsewhere, there will be much last minute drama followed by a deal. Everyone, well Remain actually, will claim success and that it was a great deal for Britain.

    What saddens me most is the lost opportunities that leaving the EU brings. Not just for the UK but the EU and the rest of the work. To be served by such treacherous pygmies is stomach churning.

  12. Helen Taylor
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    John, I am getting confused now, the Brexiteers dont like Chequers, the eu dont like Chequers. Is TM still sticking with it or has she finally ditched it. Preferably along with the advisers who have instilled in her that was the way to go.

    • Bob
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

      @Helen Taylor
      The Remainers like Chequers and the EU like Chequers.
      Brussels say they don’t accept it and are waiting for Appeaser May to up her offer, which of course she will before the gavel hits the block.

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

      Helen Taylor, No confusion, we will get Chequers. Or a variation on it. The reason? The British establishment – principally the UK civil service – have been cosying up to their “colleagues” in Brussels for months negotiating it. Remember the “Kit-Kat Brexit” tapes from the Sun?

      What, you think the negotiation is done by the Ministers, or the Prime Minister? That’s what the MSM would have you believe. The EU “not liking” Chequers is pure theatre too. Chequers is Remain by another name, and that’s why we’ll get it – that, and the fact the HoC is about 500:100 in favour of Remain. And never mind how us plebs voted, we know nothing.

    • Chris
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

      May is proceeding regardless as she has Cabinet support, and the Brexiters say they support May. If they “support” May then they are effectively supporting Chequers.

  13. Tweeter_L
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    The hot water method has certainly been the way the EEC was transformed into the EU, with a couple of sharp increases in temperature along the way (Maastricht & Lisbon) which the amphibians did notice. Unfortunately there’s been a lid on the pan, until June 2016 when a chink of light appeared. The amphibians are trying to exit before the lid slams shut again- was it all just a cruel tease?

  14. Peter
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    A constant Remain barrage. The latest ploy is to admit that Chequers is useless but then claim that the numbers are still sufficient to allow it to get through parliamentary scrutiny. Several newspapers and the Conservative Home website have adopted this idea.

  15. homebird
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    As I said before- now that we have had the debate- for the past two years- now that we have had the debate it’s time to make our minds up. The people will have to have a say since government and Labour don’t know where they’re going. It’s all much too serious to be left to sloganeering and cheap sound bites..and it’s not about us? it’s about our children and for the generations to come. People over fifty years of age should be excluded from the vote, they are they ones who mainly have us in this mess- ie. bring back the empire..sigh!.. Signed homebird, age 72

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

      Homebird, It is about self-determination, the opposite of empire … sigh! … And we made up our minds in 2016 after the debate. What we’ve had since is not a debate but merely (some) Remains whinging.

    • Helen Smith
      Posted September 28, 2018 at 6:55 am | Permalink

      Well, I am old fashioned enough to believe that every life matters, not just those of under 50s.

      I voted Leave for my children and grandchildren’s sake.

      I think you are onto something though. Not so long ago people left school at 14 and got the vote at 21. Now they leave further education around 22 the voting age should increase to 30 to allow them to gain some real life experience, rather than just what they have been told.

      • margaret howard
        Posted September 29, 2018 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

        Helen

        “I voted Leave for my children and grandchildren’s sake.”

        They won’t thank you for ruining their future.

  16. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:55 am | Permalink

    JR, it seems to me that it would be better for MPs to finally knock the Chequers plan on the head sooner rather than later. That would save more time for negotiations with the EU from a different starting point, rather than the Chequers starting point which was already rejected by the EU months ago. To be honest I’ve lost track on whether MPs have already had some kind of vote on the White Paper Cm 9593:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/725288/The_future_relationship_between_the_United_Kingdom_and_the_European_Union.pdf

    but they should engineer another one and vote it down, with a motion making it clear that the government should not pursue that White Paper as a basis for negotiation.

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

      Denis Cooper, Something may come along and make me a liar (though it’s a bad plan to rely on “something”), but we are going to get Chequers or a variation on it. Why? Because MPs resolutely believe that they are entitled to make the decision – they are ignoring the awkward fact that they gave the decision to us, and we made it.

  17. George Brooks
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    And we have the government papers (Project Fear) illustrating life after Brexit a lot of which is very far-fetched.

    BBC Breakfast had a pearl this morning which only lasted 30 seconds or so when they stated that electricity prices would increase by up to a third after Brexit. Same tactic, push out the a headline then expanded it later during subsequent news casts until it is referred to as fact.

    The BBC is running a close second to ”Lord Haw Haw” in the propaganda stakes and has thrown the idea of balanced reporting clean out of the window.

  18. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:06 am | Permalink

    Frogs are very similar to humans in the power of adjustment with the situation.

    When you put a frog in a vessel of water and start heating the water. As the temperature of the water rises, the frog is able to adjust its body temperature accordingly. The frog keeps on adjusting with increase in temperature. Just when the water is about to reach boiling point, the frog is not able to adjust anymore. At that point the frog decides to jump out. The frog tries to jump but is unable to do so, because it lost all its strength in adjusting with the water temperature. Very soon the frog dies.

    What killed the frog? Many of us would say the boiling water. But the truth is what killed the frog was its own inability to decide when it had to jump out.

    We need to pick our moment as to when to walk away before we are unable.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

      NS,

      For me 2016 was the point of last jump…

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

      Narrow Shoulders, We are almost beyond that point now. That’s what Mrs May has been engineering (in cahoots with Olly Robbins). Even if by some miracle we do escape the EU at this late stage, a lot of Remain damage is baked in already. Or is that “boiled in”?

  19. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Off-topic, I read here:

    http://www.cityam.com/263799/city-firms-hold-back-brexodus-hope-deal-can-reached

    that so far City firms have relocated just 630 jobs to the EU.

    A total of 5,800 could still be moved, but the same survey conducted last year suggested 10,000 roles could relocate, while prior to the referendum it was estimated that hundreds of thousands of jobs would leave the City.

    That would have been out of a 2018 workforce of around 483,000; so we have gone from the threat of maybe half of those City jobs being lost to only about 1%, and with about 0.1% having gone so far.

    I doubt if this would even be noticed in the constant “churn” of the jobs market:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/08/02/overseas-firms-back-city-by-signing-for-new-offices/#comment-882347

    “… the massive annual “churn” of jobs in the UK economy, which dwarfs the total number of jobs which could conceivably be at risk from Brexit even in the Remoaners’ invented apocalyptic worst case scenarios.”

  20. Helena
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    What a deluded conspiracy theory. The problem here is not that Remainers are sabotaging Brexit, the problem here is that the Brexit you promised is utterly undeliverable. We hold all the cards, you said – we don’t. We’ll get great trade deals, with the EU and round the world – not a hint of it. £350 million for NHS? Ha ha. Will you ever stand up and take responsibility for the falsehoods of the Leave campaign, or do you plan to carry on trying to blame others? Leave won, remember, this is YOUR mess.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

      Helena,

      As they say “It’s not over till the over weight lady sings” so lets revisit this after April 2019 and see what deal or no deal that Remainer May has got for the UK….

    • Edward2
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

      Leaving is easy.
      Over 150 naions carry on OK without joining the EU
      It is trying to stay half in that is causing problems.l

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

      Helena, I for one said clearly and often that if you thought the EU would be reasonable you hadn’t been paying attention for the last 40 years (now 46 years). That is why I advocated leaving by abrogating the treaties (as Vienna allows) and without invoking Art50.

      The idea that the UK is intrinsically incapable of being independent (as most nations in the world are) is a deluded Remain conspiracy theory. Our government (and the opposition joined them) threw all our top cards away. This Remain government is YOUR mess.

      If by a miracle we actually Leave, we will of course get trade deals with other friendly countries around the world (not the EU – it isn’t friendly). VoteLeave made a suggestion about spending the £350bn (an underestimate now) we are billed annually by the EU. It is a Remain lie that it was a “promise” – VoteLeave was a campaign, not the government.

    • Dennis
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

      Helena – “£350 million for NHS? Ha ha.”

      A lie from you – there was not a single penny promised, guaranteed, pledged from £350m to the NHS on that bus poster.

      If you read that simple poster wrong I wouldn’t trust what you understand from anything written.

    • Chris
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      It is a mess because we have a Remainer pM trying to ensure we “leave” in name only but are still effectively in, and ruled by, the EU. No, the blame certainly does not lie with the Leave voters. Utter nonsense.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

      Helena

      Are you not resident on this planet?

      1) Leaving and trading on WTO is the easiest thing in the world 120 other countries manage it

      2) We haven’t left yet so can’t negotiate trade deals

      3) May has already pledged to increase the NHS budget from £125 bn to £150 bn, buy yourself a calculator

      4)You might want to read the German media on the fears of the German car manufacturers ( or you could just keep getting your ideas from Facebook)

      Leave won and we want it implemented, meanwhile we have to put up with Remainer crying and scare stories each and every one of them debunked but still you keep up the deluded nonsense

    • libertarian
      Posted September 28, 2018 at 7:37 am | Permalink

      Helena

      Oh dear

      Dutch PM Rutte says last week’s Salzburg debacle was indeed cock up not conspiracy: ‘We had a difficult week. Somehow it ended up in an accident where both EU & UK seemed to drift apart & that’s not OK.’ Asked if leaders humiliated May, forcefully replies: ‘No. Really we didn’t.’

      Translation, christ what have we done, they might walk away totally

  21. Alan Jutson
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    Still no reply from the Conservative Party Chairman and the Chief Whip to whom I both sent letters now one month ago.

    Not even the common courtesy of an acknowledgement.

    Me thinks I will have to remind them that they are elected to serve the people, and not themselves.

    I will copy you in on the follow up, as you are my constituency MP.

    If they ignore me then

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:48 am | Permalink

      I may just ignore your Party when they ask for support !

      That would be a great shame, given the effort you are putting in.

    • Oggy
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

      Hi Alan,
      I recently wrote (again) to my Labour MP, Sir Kier Starmer and Mr Corbyn, reminding them they are supposed to serve the people – not dictate to them, and to support leaving the EU as instructed by the 2016 referendum result.
      I haven’t received any replies and don’t plan on holding my breath.

  22. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    Clearly you have not made the water hot enough yet for the duplicitous Mrs May and Hammond. Perhaps at Birmingham we shall see the thermostat raised significantly?

  23. Sir Joe Soap
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    There is also a saying about straws and a camel’s back.
    People who are loading the camel should be noticing, but they are not.

  24. Arthur Wrightiss
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    I suggest everyone reads today’s Quentin Letts piece “ don’t scoff at Comrade Corbyn “.
    The cabinet should be forced to read it and understand it.

  25. Ron Olden
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    FROG IN THE POT

    This amphibian story has always been nonsense, If you put a frog in boiling water it will die instantly. It you warm the water gradually it will eventually jump out.

    But I’m not sure at all whether its political application is entirely wrong.

    Dr Victor Hutchison’s “the physiological ecology of thermal relations of amphibians and reptiles to include determinations of the factors which influence lethal temperatures, critical thermal maxima and minima, thermal selection, and thermoregulatory behavior”.

    explains that ‘critical thermal maxima’ means the maximum temperature that the animal can bear.

    Professor Hutchison says:- The ‘critical thermal maxima’ of many species of frogs have been determined by several investigators. In this procedure, the water in which a frog is submerged is heated gradually at about 2°F per minute.

    As the temperature of the water is gradually increased, the frog will eventually become more and more active in attempts to escape the heated water. If the container size and opening, allow the frog to jump out, it will do so.”

    In politics however we are talking about tens of millions of people all with different ‘critical policy tolerance maxima’ (and differing degrees of gullibility), so the tactic might work by persuading enough people to reverse the 52% to 48% Brexit vote.

    The disrepute into which that would bring democracy and elections however will be near fatal. The best chance of avoiding it is to have faith that people (including many who voted Remain) will see through it and revolt against it.

    The most relevant polls on this subject are not the ones which tell us how people would vote if the Referendum were held today, or whether we were right to vote Leave. The real question is whether people want another Referendum as to whether to Remain or to Leave, at all.

    To my knowledge that figure has not reached anywhere near 40% in any poll.

    Given the damage that such a Referendum could do if Remain won narrowly it’s not trivial to suggest that if one is decided upon, we should have a Referendum first to decide if we want the second Referendum.

    It could be done over a period of very few weeks in two stages as with French Presidential Elections.

    This ‘Political Water Test’ example also came up with the advent of Mrs Thatcher. People out up with Socialism for a long time, but in the end the balance of numbers changed.

    Now it’s swung back into something else, and a near majority are beguiled by Corbyn’s easy answers. If he wins, the balance will eventually switch back again, but not before appalling damage has been done.

    The best way to avoid that is to have a war chest available in time for the next election and spend it, and more, in the run up. At least if the country is going to go bust we might as well do it with tax cuts and spending on things Tories like, which will entice in more Tory voters, than to bequeath it to Corbyn to spend.

    A crucial demographic are people with Student Debt. It’s not inconceivable we could write it all off and go back to the drawing board and work out something better’ eg a slightly higher rate of Employers and Employees NIC for Graduates or maybe them getting their State Pension a year or two late than Non Graduates. Graduates live longer than non Graduates anyway.

    The most absurd aspect of the present system is that the debt gets written off if it’s not repaid by the age of 50 which is the typical age at which Graduates in particular tend to start getting more disposable and income and their outgoings start to drop off.

  26. Anonymous
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    Those voters with Conservative instincts should now realise that the sky will not fall in if they stay at home during the next general election and Corbyn gets in.

    Voting Tory is like being a battered wife and returning home repeatedly to an abusive partner.

    Never again.

    This frog has jumped out of the pan. In any case. I loathe the sight of Theresa May and have to turn the TV off whenever she appears.

    • Anonymous
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:02 am | Permalink

      “Those voters with Conservative instincts should now realise that the sky will not fall in if they stay at home during the next general election and Corbyn gets in.”

      May/Hammond are not much less socialist.

      We may as well have the real thing. At least you can identify it and fight it.

  27. BOF
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    The top frogs have remained in the water as it has heated, now to near boiling point, while the lower order of frogs long ago jumped out when their innate common sense and survival instincts kicked in. They also became concerned that if they remained their legs would soon be cut off and consumed by dangerous predators.

    It would seem that the Top Frog persuaded her admirers, with promises of unlimited flies and other delicious insects, to stay in the water and that those stoking the fire were really their friends and would never harm them………………………..

    To be continued.

    • miami.mode
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

      BOF. There is an old saying, I believe originally from the near continent, that you do not inform the frogs that you are about to drain the pond.

      Our chief frog is obviously not informing us how much will be drained from the loughs, lochs, llyns and lakes that comprise the UK.

  28. JoolsB
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    I do hope all those Tory Brexit MPs will have the courage of their convictions and vote against Chequers. How many I wonder when it comes to the crunch will support the Government rather than see it defeated which if they do will be an utter betrayal. May’s Chequers proposals are a disaster and everyone knows it except this stubborn and arrogant woman who obviously thinks she knows best.

    Chequers needs to be defeated as does May. I just hope John, you are all going to act next week at the conference to get rid of this traitor once and for all because if you don’t, she will have sold this country down the river and in doing so make the Conservative party unelectable for years to come.

    • Chris
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

      ALL Tory MPs, good as well as bad, will be held responsible for the disaster, and the Brexiter MPs will not be excused simply because they spoke out. They have the power to act to save Brexit, but apparently have refused. That is crystal clear to those outside the Westminster bubble.

  29. Zorro
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    Bless – ‘boiling the frog’ the phrase so often loved/used by senior civil servants when cooking up schemes…. I see that T May has posited that the UK could become a low tax, business friendly world beating economy if the EU (a little like P Hammond said in the very early days after the vote) doesn’t accept her Chequers deal….. There is something rather odd in this behaviour because who in their right mind would believe that either of these two would actually do that! They have moved heaven and earth to try and avoid such a sensible economic strategy and instead tie us to the regulation heavy EU in a shadow form by means of the bizarre Heath Robinson type Chequers mechanism!

    I m getting a bit concerned with this rather bizarre, irrational and frankly unbelievable behaviour!

    Zorro

    • BOF
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

      True Zorro. The two are incompatable!

    • NickC
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

      Zorro, That is a very good point. If they think it is so wonderful, why aren’t they doing it now? The short answer is they are just having a hissy fit for the theatre and they expect us to swallow it.

  30. A.Sedgwick
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Mrs. May is a fence sitting ditherer and the parliamentary arithmetic points to her troubles continuing and Corbyn benefitting. He is becoming teflon Jeremy and unless she is quickly replaced Socialist Labour could acquire the unassailable electoral position that Blair did 1994-7.

    Conservative Remainers, who refuse to accept the will of the people will be to blame for the UK’s downfall. It is conceivable that the Conservative Party will follow the Liberals into effective oblivion given the declining membership. Refusing Ukippers membership is a classic.

  31. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    Alas, this week the editor of the Maidenhead Advertiser has passed over my humble offering and preferred to publish a letter from someone else who also wants to leave the EU but has made the mistake of reading the book “Norway then Canada, a new Brexit strategy”, forcing me to send an email to the author as follows:

    “I take it that you missed this on November 24th 2017:

    https://news.sky.com/video/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-solution-for-ireland-11141058

    “Is the Norway-Sweden border an answer for Ireland?”

    In that 3 minutes 50 seconds video the response from Irish ministers was a categorical “No”.

    From 30 seconds in, the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar robotically intoning:

    “No hard border, no physical infrastructure on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.”

    From 3 minutes 3 seconds in, their Europe Minister Helen McEntee propounding their absurd, extreme and intransigent doctrine:

    “We have been very very clear from day one, there cannot be a physical border and that means ruling out cameras, that means ruling out technology, that means ruling out anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland, it is not an option for us”.

    There is another solution to the largely fabricated problem of the Irish border, but it is one which Theresa May refuses to countenance, and it is also one which would apply just as readily to the preferred free trade deal as to a supposedly interim EFTA/EEA arrangement.

    I think it is unfortunate that you have written this book misleading people, for example misleading a reader of the Maidenhead Advertiser into writing a letter published today in which he says:

    “EFTA membership of EEA also miraculously resolves the Irish border issue because both sides in Ireland are members of the EEA with common tariffs, thus eliminating the need for a hard border”.

    when that is not true, at least as far as the Irish government is concerned.”

    • Know-Dice
      Posted September 27, 2018 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

      Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar rally doesn’t know what side the Irish peoples bread is buttered.

      And should recite every day and twice on a Friday…”65% of ROI exports are are consumed in the UK, 85% of ROI exports transit through the UK”

      • Know-Dice
        Posted September 28, 2018 at 7:19 am | Permalink

        I will blame that on my [not so] smart phone 🙁

        rally = really
        peoples = people’s

  32. Brigham
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    Over 17 million voters are not people, according to the Labour party. That is why we now need a people’s vote.

  33. BOF
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Somewhat off topic but Radio 4 this morning carried yet another Project Fear report on NI running out of power and the prospect of massive increases in price.

    I really do not know why we pay the BBC poll tax.

  34. The Prangwizard
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    Here’s another take. You Mr Redwood are a frog and May is moving the Conservative party ever further Left, as you know. Will you jump? I say you never will.

  35. NickC
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    JR – a really excellent and amusing post. Thank you. Remains started spewing out their propaganda as soon as it was clear that the nation had opted for the Leave outcome under the legal conditions set by Parliament. But only Remains (well, the few vociferous doomster Remains) believe their own lies.

    Leave means no treaty ties to the EU beyond that which we will have with other (more friendly) nations around the world. Otherwise we won’t have left. And Remains and the EU have been shown up for what they are – spiteful, vindictive, unreasonable, and manipulative.

  36. Kenneth
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Forked tongue: the government issues a press release stating that all migrants will be treated the same.

    The small print then tells us that there may be some special arrangements for eu citizens

    The BBC obliges with the headline they wanted

    This is why there is little trust in Theresa May’s Remain department …and eroding trust in the BBC

  37. mancunius
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Chequers: I can’t think of a comparable prime ministerial attempt to stubbornly ignore the growing opposition of voters, governing party, cabinet and Parliament, since Harold Wilson’s National Incomes Policy.
    Forget about the men in dark suits, it’s the men in white coats who should be paying her a visit.

  38. den
    Posted September 27, 2018 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    Is it not the time to ask, during PMQs, why our Prime Minister would wish this country to remain answerable to Brussels (In any way, shape or form) , despite a National Referendum decision requiring that we FULLY LEAVE their control behind on March 29th 2019?
    How we would progress from there is a matter for Brussels to decide and not for us, the LEAVERS.
    Britain holds the Aces and much of their bank and it defies logic that we would continue to be so subservient to this unelected, foreign cabal.

  39. Original Richard
    Posted September 29, 2018 at 5:04 am | Permalink

    Remainers are surely the boiling frogs.

    For if remainers knew more about the EU, and hence understood the aims and final destination of the EU, they would be leavers.

  • About John Redwood


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