Many commentators wrongly assume the EU will impose some kind of economic blockade on the UK once we leave the EU. They are not making any legal provision so to do, and it is difficult to see how they would do it. They cannot break the many outstanding contracts to supply or to import. Were Calais to work a go slow the Belgian and Dutch ports would willingly divert the business and gain market share. The planes will fly on March 30th, and Airbus will still be buying UK made wings in order to meet its customer contracts. The EU has many powers over the UK government, but it has limited powers over importers, exporters and multinational companies when it comes to stopping them doing business. National governments employ the border and customs staffs.
What most commentators then ignore is the big gains we will be able to achieve from repatriating our money. The balance of payments will immediately improve by Ā£12 bn a year as we stop sending net contributions to the EU. We will be able to spend more money on our essential public services, and have some tax cuts. If we spent the full Ā£39bn they are proposing to spend on so called transition on the UK economy over a two year period, that would provide an immediate 2% boost to incomes and output over that time period, all other things being equal.
There is also the question of how much stimulus to the economy we could achieve by setting a different tariff schedule from the EU one that met our own needs. Imposing some tariffs on EU exports to us where we have capacity to make at home could provide a boost on a net basis, given that we import more than we export. Cutting tariffs on products from outside the EU that we cannot make or grow for ourselves would boost our real spending power. I am not going to put a number on this, as it would not be nearly as great as the impact of spending our own money, but it could also be a positive figure.
I am still awaiting a formal reply to my letter proposing the government now publish our tariff schedule for next March. They have told me informally they agree, so will they get on and do it.
October 20, 2018
Exactly right. Plus we could have a further economic and confidence boost by replacing Hammond with someone with sensible low tax and pro business policies, a bonfire of red tape and far less of government pissing money down the drain. A further boost too if it looks like Corbyn/SNP will never get into power. He will not if we replace May with a Real Tory PM who is at least vaguely competent.
October 20, 2018
The biggest boost to the UK economy now would be the removal of the threat of a Marxist / Scottish separatist govt. Corbyn is a far bigger threat than anything Brexit might throw up. The humbug of so called moderate Labour MPs in not recognising this is contemptible.
October 20, 2018
I demand that the Scots get a second referendum. The first not getting the right result. Then once they are gone, we, the rest of the UK, can have a second referendum on the EU. Minus the Scots, as mentioned above š
October 20, 2018
JR, hang on. Hammond said the U.K. Will pay whether there is a deal or not. Are you saying he is lying?
Repky I am saying he is wrong
October 20, 2018
Exactly
October 20, 2018
Juliet Samuel in the Telegraph has a good take on the total uselelssness of the May govt on Brexit. The only thing going you can say is Corbyn would be far far worse
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/19/government-has-made-fool-great-country/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_em
October 20, 2018
Agreed – an analysis by the economist David B. Smith looked at the UK Treasuryās tax reducing options calculated that Ā£40bn kept here and not paid to the EU could
cause a real terms boost to UK GDP of up to 1.4% pa. http://www.politeia.co.uk/a-40bn-boost-for-the-uk-economy-by-sheila-lawlor/ As page 8 says: ā the results of the two tax reduction scenarios suggest that the UK may now be on the wrong side of the aggregate Laffer curve.ā
Whitehall wants the UK to pay whatever Brussels calculates – could well greatly exceed Ā£39Bn: https://facts4eu.org/news_oct_2018.shtml#bill2
And the EUās Budget Commissioner has confirmed that the UK would not keep the āmother of all rebatesā if it held a second referendum and decided to stay in the EU: https://order-order.com/2018/10/12/uk-will-lose-rebate-stays-eu/
Therefore, after 2020, the visible saving from leaving the EU increases to c. Ā£17Bn Net p.a. (It is then necessary to also add on further parts of the EU funding iceberg: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/20/how-much-money-do-we-save-when-we-leave-the-eu/#comment-941877 )
October 20, 2018
JR, I’m glad you’ve mentioned tariffs because a comment from somebody else yesterday reminded me that in general import duties have now been reduced to levels where they have become an inefficient and costly way to raise relatively small sums of revenue, and it is all at ultimately at the expense of consumers.
I think in the future we should consider abolishing all customs duties and the associated paperwork, and if some domestic economic activities need and deserve protection from cheap imports then we could do that via direct support from the government, that is from the taxpayer not the consumer.
I hope you will permit me to simply reproduce my comment from July 16th:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/07/16/a-3-option-referendum-would-not-work/#comment-948036
“JR, in relation to this afternoonās Commons debate on the Customs Bill, I have just been catching up with a July 11th meeting of the Public Accounts Committee:
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/public-accounts-committee/customs-declaration-service-progress-review/oral/86727.html
and without copying and pasting a large chunk of that text I was so forcibly struck by a line of questioning from Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, starting at Q67, that I had to look elsewhere to check that the total customs duties collected by HMRC really do amount to little more than Ā£3 billion a year.
And I find that is true, Table C here:
http://obr.uk/box/customs-duties-assumptions-post-brexit/
Of course at present all the duties are collected on behalf of the EU and are remitted to the EU, less the 20% retained for collection costs, but that is besides the point I wish to make that not only is Ā£3 billion a relatively small sum in the context of UK public finances but the present cost to importers just of customs compliance will be more than half of that*, and surely nowadays there must be a cheaper and less economically damaging way for the UK state, or indeed the EU proto-state, to raise a mere Ā£3 billion of revenue.
* 55 million customs declarations at an average cost of Ā£32.50 = Ā£1.8 billion.”
October 20, 2018
Two possibilities are now left.
The first is that we will be absorbed into the Associate Status which Jacob Rees Mogg has described quite rightly as “colonial status”. That is pencilled in for 30th March in the spring.
The second is that all trade will be tied up in a skein of bureaucracy the like of which nobody has seen in their lifetime. This will ruin the JIT system, the AEO system and the CAP system. It will also ruin the CFP system too.
Should have gone to Specsavers – sorry Efta.
October 20, 2018
Interestingly yesterday BBC radio 4 in their total desperation to avoid offending any Pakistani Muslims they chose instead to just accuse all men over the grooming gang convictions. āIt was not that they committed these crimes because they were Muslims but because they were men and could get away with it.ā It seem that to the BBC to slander all men in this way is just fine.
The real crime is the abject failure of the police and other authorities to do anything about it despite it being endlessly brought to their attention.
October 20, 2018
Indeed. Meanwhile a drug dealer has murdered an innocent man in the centre of London for daring to protest at their antisocial and illegal activities. The response from the police? To bleat about āresourcesā. As long as there is one police officer wasting time by pursuing hate crimes on twitter or eg the ghost of Edward Heath no attention should be paid to such whining. If our police leadership – and govt at various levels – wonāt take the fight aggressively to the criminals letās import some new leadership which might, eg from America. Letās also use Brexit to re-set all the labarynthine human rights traps which prevent robust action.
A radical new law & order policy could be a huge vote winner.
October 20, 2018
Good morning
All this would be true but, we have a government committed to Remain as close to the EU as possible, so that it can engineer rejoining in someway later down the road. The game was given away when someone here stated that, Bernier thought the UK was negotiating more like an accession country rather than one that was leaving.
October 20, 2018
On March 30 we are no longer in the single market or the customs union. That means border checks, tariffs, VATchecks, phytosanitary checks and lots more. You dont even understand the basics of international trade
October 20, 2018
Trader Vic
Dont we? Thats odd because I trade overseas. You might want to educate yourself before posting drivel. HMRC have an interesting section on their website on how they intend to handle VAT payments on a quarterly basis in your usual VAT returns. Using TIR, CHIEF and CDS means we DO NOT GET checked at the border . Of course a lot of us here are also very used to this as we dont only export to the EU.
October 20, 2018
One billion can go to the alleged black hole caused by a loss of the penal stamp duty raised from high value homes. If true, once again political virtue signalling that went contrary to the Laffer theory, has cost us money.
October 20, 2018
The EU nation states are each divided internally into at least two parties,
Right and Left.Also,
Trades unions defending jobs +- +- Employers not into closing factories for one minute.
The EU cannot impose santions of any kind on us.
Remainers are soring their feet on London streets. Evicted. Victory is ours. V
October 20, 2018
Good Morning Dr. Redwood,
Will you kindly also ask of the Government (PMQ’s?) :
If we accept the ‘common rule book’ concept with the EU as proposed, does that mean that all items purchased or sold to NON EU countries, whether or not they have a FTA with the EU, such items must also comply with the common rule book?
Thank you.
October 21, 2018
If Theresa May gets her way it will mean that, because that is how the EU works. Only 12% of UK GDP is exported to the rest of the EU, by about 6% of UK businesses, but 100% of the UK economy and businesses must conform to EU laws. It is true that the government White Paper:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/725288/The_future_relationship_between_the_United_Kingdom_and_the_European_Union.pdf
said:
“… a common rulebook for goods including agri-food, covering only those rules
necessary to provide for frictionless trade at the border … ”
and that could be interpreted to mean only those goods which are intended to cross the border – obviously those which do not go to the border cannot create friction at the border – and that would always have been a more sensible approach, but clearly it is still not the government’s approach.
October 20, 2018
Don’t miss the DIDDUMS MARCH today…
…expect lots of ‘schweaming’ about staying tied to Mummy EU’s Apron Strings.
October 20, 2018
WeToldYou. Great post. Sums it all up nicely.
October 20, 2018
I see the demonstration ends in Parliament Square. I say end the demonstration at St. Pancras, so the demonstrators can board Eurostar and go to their beloved EU, where they can fulfil their ambition to Remain.
October 20, 2018
WTYNE
Having seen your comment I looked up the march and was confronted by a board proclaiming “WE WANT OUR COUNTRY BACK”
Bearing in mind they want to give it to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels I found myself puzzled
October 20, 2018
Michael
” unelected bureaucrats in Brussels”
==
How much longer do we have to read the nonsense about “unelected bureaucrats”, presumably referring to the staff of the EU institutions.
The 28 members of the EU Council are elected Heads of Government. All MEPs are elected by the electorates of the 28 member states. These MEPs have grilled the 28 new Commissioners in public hearings. Since when are senior civil servants elected in the UK?
October 21, 2018
I must have missed my version of the “people’s vote” when I was ablle to place my vote in an election for EU the council and commissioners.
The powerful beating heart of the EU.
October 20, 2018
I think they’re puzzled themselves. Many seem to confuse ”Europe” with EU. It is indeed baffling, but there you are – that’s social media dependent, ill-educated, ignorant people for you. And not all youngsters either! Amazing.
October 20, 2018
It’s ridiculous, John, that we are having to make the case, again, for Brexit. All because of our disloyal leadership.
The cases, for and against, were made before the Peoples’ Vote of 2016.
There is no turning back now…if the Remainers manage to shatter UK Democracy…and overturn the Will of the People, by staying in the EU…we would almost certainly lose any EU ‘rebates’ we had…have to agree to monetary union, and all the rest. The game has changed, forever.
Time to leave behind the anachronistic EU…and move into a better, modern, future outside the EU.
October 20, 2018
The UK ought to ready itself for hostile if petty acts against us by our Evil Empire enemies. It will not of course, as we have a soft, credulous government that fondly and naively supposed a mutually rewarding deal could be struck and will not learn from its bad experiences (that include seeing quisling civil servants undermine it).
October 20, 2018
A nation’s economic health is not determined by membership of a political organisation. It is determined by its ability to pay its way in the world. Economic self-reliance is fundamental. We export, we import but we must stand our own two feet. But, that aside…..
The UK is not leaving the EU in March 2019. I know this. JR knows this. The entire UK knows this. The May-EU partnership’s outplayed every single leave voter simply because she’s the PM of the UK and has the legal authority to behave as she wishes. When Hailsham made reference to an ‘elected dictatorship’ he wasn’t far wrong
May is to all intents and purposes an EU technocrat. The UK is no longer a fully functioning sovereign democracy in the way we understand it to mean. The Tory party’s been infected by the EU virus. A compromised political entity. No longer serving its core vote. No longer serving the interests of British democracy. No longer a reflection of the 52% who sincerely and honestly expressed their preference in 2015.
The Tories have become a sham and a scam. A liberal left authoritarian politicised animal rather than a civil, quasi-political entity.
We need economic and social radicalism. We don’t want May pandering to every screeching rights activist targeting our civil and social rights.
We need a new leader. I for one will not vote Tory with a liberal left adherent as our leader. Her politics are so abhorrent in every way that it’s revealed the valueless nature of what the Tories have become. It’s very sad to see a once proud party now on its knees praying at the altar of left of centre politics.
A part of me is hoping that the British people elect a Marxist Labour government. Bankruptcy would follow. The Tories would elect a radical leader in response. It would teach the Tories a lesson for electing May and it would also, in time, punish the British people for once again, flirting with free-lunch politics
Reply In order to avoid leaving n ext March Mrs May would have to repeal/amend the 2 laws Parliament has passed to leave. I will not be supporting her to delay Brexit
October 20, 2018
The fake Ā£12 billion again? Not so much post truth as post cognitive thought. Militant Nationalists, and their fellow travellers within Blue Kip, are working for a car crash; inflicting third country status on horrified importers, exporters manufacturers, the City et al. The EU, has, self-evidently played no part in this.
The Centre for Economic Performance estimates that āNo Deal/ WTOā will reduce UK trade with the EU by 40% in 10 years .The interaction of lost investment and position, however, is not modelled and a tipping point is inherently unseen.
Only next yearās visible chaos at shops pharmacies ports and factories , concerns the Party. They will soon daub āNothing to do with Brexitā on the crumbling farmyard wall, and the sheep will believe it for a while.
Someone help us.
Reply EU trade is around 13% of our GDP. I do not for one moment accept the large decline you forecast, but were there to be a decline we would sell much more to ourselves at home through import substitution, so why would there be a hit to our GDP?
October 20, 2018
It looks like at least 46 million of those 46.5 million who voted in the 2016 referendum will not be turning out at the march for a People’s Vote today.
If these marchers get their way it really will have been by *mob rule*, Newmania.
That’s a lot of sheep. Are you absolutely sure about that ?
October 20, 2018
NEWMANIA
If the UK were a net exporter then your concerns might be valid
Calculating GDP using the expenditure approach is as follows:
GDP = C + G + I + (X – M)
where C= Consumption; G = Government Spending; I = Investment
Also X = Exports ; M = Imports
Trading with EU (X – M) = -Ā£90 billion, i.e. a 4.5% DRAG on GDP. If domestic producers become more competitive than the EU due to tariff (and non-tariff) barriers and that 40% fall does actually materialise that will represent a 40% fall in the DRAG (1.8%).
PS Don’t bother citing idiotic model projections. I have pulled the wool over the eyes of many experienced business people by adjusting model parameters. These are essentially assumptions that are included as input to the model. As the mathematician, John von Neumann once said “with 4 free parameters I can draw an elephant, with 5 I can make him wiggle his trunk”.
October 20, 2018
If you’re trying to educate Newmania, Mr Finn, you may be on a hiding to nothing.
If you’re trying to baffle him/her, then you will probably find it surprisingly easy.
October 20, 2018
The UK net payment to the EU; taking account of the EU payments back to the UK public AND private sectors was, Ā£6.52 billion for calendar 2017; Ā£7.27 billion for 2016. 2015 was the high year at Ā£10.31 billion due to the back-count of the UKs GNI calculation; so expertly handled by Cameron trying to do a Thatcher.
October 20, 2018
acorn
Great stuff , you give me Ā£300 I’ll give you Ā£200 back …. oh and tell you what you can spend it on. I thought you had gone off to do a project… Did you not get the gig after all?
October 21, 2018
Back to work Monday. Will I need a passport after Brexit Day?
October 21, 2018
I meant Visa, sorry.
October 21, 2018
The French visa story has been refuted by Macron who said it was a mistranslation in his speech.
So more project fear fake news.
Passport?
Yes to travel you need a passport EU or no EU
October 20, 2018
Newmania, please do at least TRY to check your facts. The 12 billion figure comes from the EU themselves – it forms part of the figures they put out for their 2022 budget. Do you actually think that if you keep on repeating your nonsense for long enough, people will believe it? It’s about time you did some basic research
October 20, 2018
Newmainia
Another one bites the dust
Singapore’s PM tells #r4today that he expects to do Free Trade Deal with UK along the lines of deal done with EU. Would expect it to come into force “straight after transition period”. Another Remain lie falls.
October 21, 2018
No lie at all.
Remain said these deals would either take years to do or not happen at all.
October 21, 2018
Sorry libertarian apologies for my error.
I have completely mis typed that first line and it should be erased.
I agree with you.
October 20, 2018
“so will they get on and do it”
Our Government seems incapable of making a decision John, unless it is to raise taxes, it seems they would much prefer to keep on kicking the can down the road.
No vision, no real strategy, no passion, no determination to change into a sovereign nation.
October 20, 2018
Mrs May is not letting us leave on the 29th.
No-one is going to sack her or take her place. Remain are winning the propaganda war.
October 20, 2018
Even if 500,000 turn out at today’s People’s Vote march (I detest the name People’s Vote) then 46,000,000 of the people who took part in the 2016 referendum will not have turned out.
If they get their way then this really WILL be mob rule.
October 20, 2018
Anonymous
“Mrs May is not letting us leave on the 29th”
Well I can’t speak for you but I’m staying in Gt Britain and I’m leaving the EU on 29th, and I will not be recognising any law of European origin.
Mrs May, her cohorts in the HoC and EU can all go and whistle.
That mob have already polarised society and are intent to cause anarchy. It’s just a question of lighting the fuse now. Keeping us tied to the EU or opening the door for Labour will do it for sure.
Effectively this country has succumbed to a coup, and domination by foreign powers. I don’t know what the final outcome will be, but I’m certainly not going down without a fight.
Yep, civil unrest. They were warned, did they listen? did they do as we said? Did they *&^% !
The government’s arrogant refusal to take orders from the people while they sit on their backsides at a time like this will be their undoing. Many of them must be concocting the quislings standard plan B:….making a run for it with the money.
October 20, 2018
You wouldn’t be alone, Steve.
October 20, 2018
The main argument made seems to be we automatically become a third country so tariffs will automatically be imposed on UK exports. From what Iāve seen and read this is false, there would be no obligation to impose tariffs so long as there was an intention either to sign an FTA or novate an existing EU arrangement. Itās a rather incoherent public debate and various remainers are popping up calling themselves ātrade expertsā and making such assertions.
Anyway itās all academic, it looks like there will be a more or less indefinite ātransitionā period with chequers minus minus. I wonder whether Labour, or a large part of it, might abstain so they can look both ways in the public mind, which would allow Mrs Mays dreadful plan to go through?
Reply The truth is if we just leave in March 2019 we decide what tariffs we impose, but we do need to impose the same tariffs on the EU as we impose on the rest of the world. That is why I am suggesting a lower tariff schedule than the current one the EU makes us impose on non EU.
October 20, 2018
Actually the IFS, OBR, IMF and others have all looked at the āboostā you talk of. Some have called it āthe Brexit dividend.ā
It does not exist. It is false. It is fake news.
The additional costs your Brexit causes in erecting trade barriers more than outweighs any claimed savings.
Put simply there is no scenario under which your Brexit makes us better off in your lifetime.
Reply What costs? There is no evidence that we will lose from trading under WTO terms and with our own properly chosen tariff schedule.
October 20, 2018
Andy
How about showing some patriotism, rolling your sleeves up and facing the challenges ahead with some true British grit and determination ?
October 20, 2018
Andy can’t do that, Steve. He is a naysayer. His glass will always be half empty – and he’d much prefer it if the UK’s glass were half empty too. He is excited and gleeful now that his nose has twitched, hearing of others’ wishes for trouble for our country.
He wants our country to fail – so that he could say, smugly, ”I TOLD you so”.
One day he’ll be old (if he is too hypocritical to choose voluntary euthanasia). He will live to see that the country has NOT failed. I hope for his sake he can look his children in the eye and admit to them he was wrong. (That’s if they allow him to go on living after the age of 60.)
October 20, 2018
It does not exist. It is false. It is fake news.
Don’t be ridiculous. Of course there’ll be a “Brexit dividend”. It might no be immediate but there will be one. The pessimistic view is 205 before we see a financial benefit.
October 20, 2018
Andy, Andy Andy
You are not going to believe this mate , this is really odd . Guess whats happened ?
Nick Clegg ( yeh the biggest EU fanatic in politics) has got a new job. He’s head of Corporate Affairs at Facebook . Now here comes the bonkers bit Andy
Facebook are based in Menlo Park California. Thats a state in the USA. They aren’t even IN the EU, let alone schengen . They not only dont have free movement of people they erected walls to keep people out.
Wow, how on earth did he manage this. We all know because you told us that once out of the EU we can’t go and visit, live or work anywhere else
Most odd
October 20, 2018
Andy
Here’s a scenario, how about if we sell more stuff to countries outside the EU? That would make us better off surely ? How about if we then sold more stuff in the EU as well , that would make us better off. How about if we produced more and sold it internally, that would make us better off. How about if we stopped borrowing and spending money overseas that would make us better off. I can think of quite a few scenarios in which we will be better off
October 20, 2018
I can think of many scenarios in which we will be better off too. And none of them involve Brexit.
As for Nick Clegg – nobody has ever said that Brexit will prevent us from moving abroad. At least it wonāt prevent people with skills and assets from moving abroad. People like me will be fine. Itāll involve more bureaucracy than now – Brexit will lead to a huge increase in red tape – but it will be doable.
But if those of you with no job want to retire abroad – oh dear. No thanks says Europe.
October 21, 2018
You have said brexit will prevent you from living working or holidaying abroad.
October 20, 2018
Libertarian – Andy has his fingers in his ears. He can’t hear a word of the sense you speak, and he certainly won’t be able to answer your questions in any meaningful and measured way.
October 20, 2018
You are ignoring the elephant in the room that the way of trade will change..RORo through Calais will not be the same, goods will be shipped more by container through Rotterdam and Antwerp from Felixstowe and Southampton, so there will be an interruption in flow probably affecting JIT because of the customs checks that will have to be made..it will be just the same for them as cargo coming from China or the US or South America.
Reply Important items for JIT systems come from outside the EU already and all works fine
October 20, 2018
Dave F
Dont worry about things you dont understand mate , it hurts your brain
The majority of UK exports are already containers. Containers aren’t checked at the border unless they are suspected to be dodgy ( less than 3% are checked)
The WHOLE point of a JIT system is to put in place systems, processes and storage that remove the blocks to lean production. Traffic jams on the M25 and roads with potholes cause far longer delays anyway
Dover/Calais IS NOT and never has been our main export ports …. smh
October 20, 2018
Concentrate on May not tariffs.
October 20, 2018
JR.
Interesting perspective with a number of important observations
1) We will continue to trade with the EU
2) Calais will continue to trade with the UK
3) Airbus will continue to by wings from the UK
4) There will be discussions on potential tariffs and non-tariffs.
5) But not everything will be equal financially according to IBR, IMF , Treasure and OECD and this is where the UK will loose out and according to Nomura we have al. ready lost Ā£ 60 billion, so whatever money, we might have to spend.
We will still lose out.
October 20, 2018
hans
I’m going to indulge you here . The Ā£60 billion we’ve already lost. On what? Where? How? Why? Just putting a figure and expecting us to believe it is totally naive .
What exactly will we lose in future ? What goods will we no longer sell abroad? How much will the price go down to cause these losses ? Give concrete examples not abstract meaningless numbers
October 21, 2018
It’s all rubbish.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/08/interest-rates-savers-and-borrowers/#comment-965467
“In fact the EU referendum in June 2016 would be at about the 31 quarters mark, and despite all the Remoanersā increasingly dishonest efforts to find evidence of economic catastrophe, actual or incipient, looking at that chart it is impossible to detect anything significant which has happened since then in terms of the evolution of GDP.”
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/12/my-speech-during-the-debate-on-the-agriculture-bill-10-october-2018/#comment-966111
“Off topic, the OBR has produced a 103 page discussion paper … Which states at the bottom of page 4:
āAs shown in Chart 1.1, four quarter GDP growth in the UK slowed in the period after the EU referendum, the UK moved from being close to the top of the G7 GDP growth range in early 2016 to close to the bottom in 2018.ā
And then helpfully goes straight on to give that Chart 1.1 at the top of the next page, with GDP growth very obviously having slowed even more during the five quarters BEFORE the referendum than during the period AFTER the referendum.
Yet the authors at the āindependentā OBR still think that it is worth citing a number of specious studies designed to demonstrate that we have already suffered economic loss as a result of the referendum vote, although of course not the immediate and deep recession that George Osborneās Treasury forecast if we so much as dared to vote to leave ā¦ “
October 21, 2018
Libertarian,
I will answer your question in a decent manner and not in the paternalistic and rude manner you seem to treat most people on this web-site,
The Ā£ 60 billion is the estimate which came out of Nomura for the loss in growth we have had since the referendum A number of other sources have come up with similar figures and our growth has become the lowest in the G*f8or 12 quarters till recently
The way I experience this in the business world is through falling sales due to falling confidence and uncertainty, which in the sectors I work has led to falling investments in new equipment and manufacturing facilities.
October 20, 2018
The word is ‘lose’ not loose.
“we have already lost Ā£60 billion” – Really? And nobody even noticed. This is about sovereignty old chap, not money.
October 21, 2018
Neil F
thank yo for your correction
October 20, 2018
Economic boosts are a bonus. Regaining our sovereignty & being free of EU nonsense are worth more, even without such a boost. However, many of us would be happy to pay a fee of Ā£1k a year or more solely for removing the shackles of the EU if such a service existed.
October 20, 2018
Right on, Adam. Count me in! We are just being fed more and more guff about trade with financial smoke and mirrors. Leaving the EU is MUCH more than this – and most of us see this very clearly.
October 20, 2018
A case can easily and conveniently made, in political and economic terms, for the equivalent of the net savings to be spent on current ‘running costs’ of the economy. But we should not think in such a short-termist and unimaginative way. Any such expenditure will barely be noticed if frittered away, on any number of budget lines, and it will soon be forgotten about. I think I can say confidently most of it will be wasted if used this way.
Instead, government should open some form of wealth or strategic fund into which all the money year on year can be placed from the first, and calculated for subsequent years, and protected, while a far more beneficial use can be found for it. Independent minds should address the UK’s strategic deficiencies and when funds are drawn they should be carefully targeted publicly announced and accounted for.
October 20, 2018
We won’t get an economic boost if May and Hammond get their way. There are no signs that we are leaving fully John. In fact at the moment it looks like we may be staying in the customs union. Another lie from Mrs May.
October 20, 2018
JR
You’d think it would be in the PM’s interest to grasp these resources, rather than continue as she does because she stubbornly won’t admit Boris and others were right.
Desperately panicking to prove to her way is right and Boris is the bad boy in the classroom, while everyone including the EU watches her attempts just collapse more and more. Despite the fact that the tools to ensure brexit and electability are on a plate in front of her, as you well show in your latest post.
It’s gone from farce to downright embarrassment quite honestly.
While I would usually suggest this woman must go, and be banned from ever holding publicly funded office, it’s got to the point where I just think it’s game over.
The responsibility for the dissolving of our county lays firmly at the feet of every conservative MP, because the cowardly invertebrates did nothing to remove her.
I suspect the buggers know it’s all over and what they’re doing is just clinging on as long as they can for as much personal gain as they can grab before the inevitable.
They should hang their heads in shame, and be made to give back their salaries under the proceeds of crime laws.
October 20, 2018
I hope you are better informed than we are John because your boss seems determined to destroy democracy and with it the Tory Party.
I am still at a loss as to what extending the transition period would achieve as there would be the so called “cliff edge” in 2021 when presumably the indefinite backstop would kick in.
Being a lowly engineer with only an HNC I bow to the knowledge of our PM with her degree in geography and County Council experience.
October 20, 2018
1. How many nurses get sacked to pay the 100 bn the EU demands?
2. How many nurses get sacked to pay the #12 bn a year the EU demands because May won’t say no?
3. Why is the EU demanding control over UK taxes?
Barnier has let the cat out of the bag on this. The UK can’t leave and get a competitive advantage he says. That is the same as saying the EU damages people living in its countries.
Have a press conference, say the UK won’t have it taxes controlled by the EU and point out why Barnier’s comment means the EU is damaging people.
Go direct to EU nationals where ever they live. Suggest they get in touch with their politicians and ask why the EU is damaging them.
When they complain that’s political interference point out EU spending to organisations for political ends.
October 20, 2018
It will soon be time for action not words.
We appreciate removing the Prime Minister is considered too difficult on the basis she might survive a vote of confidence.
The Withdrawal Bill is a different matter. We are told there the numbers to defeat it. This must happen. Once Mayās plans are in tatters we can take it from there. She might even be shamed into resigning.
Reply There are quite enough Conservatives to defeat the Withdrawal Agreement unless Labour decides to back it.
October 20, 2018
Reply to JR’s reply;
Whoever backs the Withdrawal Agreement will be out of power, permanently.
October 20, 2018
Reply to JR reply: ….and then what do you plan to do? Tory Brexiter MPs would be outmanoeuvred yet again.
October 20, 2018
JR – It is looking highly unlikely that we will be out by next March….. But what I want to ask you is this:
WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO CHALLENGE MS MAY FOR LEADERSHIP OF THE TORIES?
It would seem that nobody else is going to do it, and it needs someone with courage to start the process to remove Ms May.
October 20, 2018
Bryan I am sure I read somewhere that Nadine Dorres has signed a letter to this effect and one other but if this is the case then it doesn’t look as though anyone else is going to. One has to ask what is the matter with them? They say it’s not about a leadership contest and they are happy with Mrs May but I don’t see how they can be. She has mucked up Brexit big time and deserves to be thrown out as a failure. As I have said before they got rid of Maggie for far less. At least she had a moral compass.
October 21, 2018
Unless she is playing a double-deceit game, to drag this out to a convincing ‘No-Deal’, which is looking very unlikely considering what she has surrendered already – then one might even support her…
She has certainly got a lot of people confused by her tactics, but by adding ever more time to the negotiations it is clear she doesn’t want us out of the EU… Is looking for a way to betray Brexit, and SHE has to go, IF THERE IS ANYONE WITH ANY COURAGE LEFT IN THE TORY PARTY…
JR – I’m sure you will let me know if I have this wrong
October 21, 2018
“One has to ask what is the matter with them?”
They have to be sure of winning a vote of no confidence. If they lose, they can’t challenge again for a year. She would only be strengthened by that.
October 20, 2018
Bryan James
Just Like John tried to challenge John Major in 1995 and we all know how that went
October 21, 2018
Times are different now – I feel certain that others would throw their hats in the ring if someone started the process
October 20, 2018
Bryan James
“WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO CHALLENGE MS MAY FOR LEADERSHIP OF THE TORIES? It would seem that nobody else is going to do it”
Be fair Bryan, unfortunately John redwood is a one – off. So short of coercing Mrs May to get run over by a bus there isn’t much he can directly do to remove her.
However, I’m sure the remain side read these diaries, including Mrs May’s close circle. So these diaries can be said to provide a means for the government to gauge public mood and also to prevent them falling back on excuses such as being out of touch.
Whether or not they’re in the slightest concerned about what we think, is another
matter.
October 21, 2018
“It would seem that nobody else is going to do it, and it needs someone with courage to start the process to remove Ms May.” – Bryan James
Hear, hear. I think what the MPs are not considering is that if they don’t remove Ms. May, the electorate may, simply by staying at home. Corbyn may be utterly unpalatable and currently behind in the polls, but at the last election May threw away a larger polls lead.
October 21, 2018
Yes – The Tories don’t seem to be worried though about the prospects of a corbyn government – They imagine we will vote Tory, no matter what deceit we suffer….
October 20, 2018
Mr Redwood,
When I read the title of this post/article, I thought that this time I would learn something new and positive for the UK. Unfortunately there is nothing but the same litany of “benefits” without mentioning the costs. I agree with you in one respect: UK imports will continue because in many cases there is no short term alternative. As everyone must know now, the supply chain-intensive flows will not tolerate a lot of new formalities. Many manufacturers have already said that their UK manufacturing businesses may become unviable under certain Brexit forms. Clearly the government does not want to run the risk that the “doomsayers” are right.
Of course the planes will be able to fly, assuming there will be an agreement for that. But flights within the EU will be problematic. And so on.
So, Redwood, why not come up with plausible evidence that Brexit will be good for the UK economy in the short term?
October 20, 2018
We are not leaving the EU for better trade.
We are leaving to become an independent nation.
October 20, 2018
Edward 2
Independent in an interdependent world
October 20, 2018
hans
Protectionist, mercantile, customs unions dont wotk in an interdependent world. Its why EU trade as a percent of global trade is plummeting .
October 21, 2018
Libertarian,
/
I do not recall arguing against that point at any stage?
October 20, 2018
Of course, the nations of the world are connected by a desire to create mutually beneficial trade and prosperity.
But they don’t allow a supranational body to make their laws or have open borders.
October 21, 2018
Edward 2
thank you valuable contribution
October 21, 2018
You are most weclome.
Thanks for you continual low quality sarcasm.
October 20, 2018
Because we can use the money saved from EU contributions to reduce corporation tax and VAT and reduce tariffs on non-EU imports. Next question ?
October 20, 2018
Roy Grainger,
Your assumptions are built on everything else remaining equal and that is not the case, so there will be less money available
October 20, 2018
No there wonāt.
October 21, 2018
Roy Grainger
Look at my argument on the point further up in the log
October 20, 2018
When will you silly people realise that Brexit is not about money but the choice of the majority of the British people to assert their right to sovereignty, self determination and the joyous freedom that has been hard won by generations of our forebears.
If you are happy to be ruled by unelected bureaucrats in Bussels, you are welcome to follow your star
October 20, 2018
Edward2, Grainger and McGrath,
You confirm my suspicion that this is simply the old “sovereignty” thing again. Maybe you should read Stephen Haseler’s book on the “special relationship” (again?). In it you will find a 2001 quote from our Host (page 211): “we could try to become the 51st state of the American Union” .
Apart from the fact that that status was not on offer then or now (although Mr Trump might want to acquire his ancestral Scotland), what would that do for British sovereignty?
Reply I have never recommended we become a state of the US!
October 20, 2018
Oh is this the new remainer scare story, tje UK rules by America.
It is nonsense.
We will trade worldwide.
As an independent nation.
October 20, 2018
Mr Redwood, the quote (p 211) reads “we could try..” not “we should try..” or “must” or whatever. Did Prof Haseler (Sidekick,; Bulldog to lapdog: British Global Strategy from Churchill to Blair; 2007 Forumpress,London) misquote you? Probably out of context, I guess.
You have been around for a long time and commendably consistent unlike some other politicians. Brexit (a “hard” one if necessary) fits very well. Given that a medium sized country located on the Western posrtion of Eurasia and the Eastern side of the North Atlantic has only two choices (not three): be part of Europe or the US (sovereignty is no option), a choice for the US is the logical consequence of leaving the EU.
Reply Your quote is misleading as I have always recommended an independent UK
October 21, 2018
Huizer – What nonsense – The UK doesn’t have to be part of the EU, nor the USA – We are big enough to stand on our own…and there are many options for us once we remove the EU shackles
October 20, 2018
Michael,
if this is your level of argument just calling people silly it might just be worth while, writing less?
October 20, 2018
Yawn
October 21, 2018
Michael
thank you again
October 20, 2018
Rein Huizer
“So, Redwood, why not come up with plausible evidence that Brexit will be good for the UK economy in the short term?”
Well for starters Huizer there’s the Ā£39bn we do not owe the EU.
Brexit would not be good for cry babies, but is good for the majority. Why ? because we’re up for it, we the majority voted for it, AND……we’re British. What more evidence do you want.
October 20, 2018
According to Raab and the Express, May is going to agree to an open ended Irish backstop.
This removes any vestige of hope that the EU will want to do a deal. She has finally reached where she wanted to be at the beginning.
In the SM called common rule book.
In the CU citing the GFA.
Free Movement renamed migration facility.
You may as well sell off the Tory HQ and pack your bags because Corbyn it is.
October 20, 2018
Ian..the closer we stay they the easier it will be to fully integrate ourselves back again in the next generation..or am I missing something?
October 20, 2018
Jack Snell
Socialism under Blair produced generation of PC youth, brainwashed into believing England was a dirty word, and denied any understanding of our county’s history. Where they’re concerned the wants of the minority outweigh the rights of the voting majority.
That will change after brexit and future generations will be educated, not brainwashed.
Once out of the EU we will never rejoin. After brexit there will be much revelation as to the extent this country was fleeced and betrayed by those it liberated from tyranny.
Besides, without the UK the EU will disintegrate as other member states follow suit…this is what the EU fears most.
So no, I don’t think we’ll be rejoining.
October 20, 2018
Hoorah ! Cloggy is off to live in California, my only regret is he is not taking Blair, Major, Heseltine, May and Hammond with him.
October 20, 2018
Not to mention Clarkey, Soubrey, Ruddey, Grievey, Carney and a number of other s
October 20, 2018
If, or more likely when, May breaks her manifesto promise to get us out of the CU surely her only objection to Canada+ has gone.
Can we at least then expect her to check Chequers. Can you ask her this at the earliest opportunity please.
October 20, 2018
News today that the Conservativeās attempt to raise more money by increasing stamp duty on the purchase of high-value houses has resulted in a reduced tax take because the market in high-value houses has slowed down as a result. Over in USA Trumpās reduction in corporation tax has resulted in an increased tax take from corporation tax. The Laffer Curve in Action. Maybe the Conservatives will come to the conclusion that Socialist punish-the-rich policies donāt work but Iām not holding my breath.
October 20, 2018
Roy, do you suppose that once the Chancellor reads about the reduced tax take from Stamp Duty, he will do something innovative, such as perhaps creating a Window Tax?
October 20, 2018
@Roy. You couldn’t make it up. Hammond is wrong on so many things. He and May make a perfect pair.
October 20, 2018
Roy Grainger,
Interesting statistic about corporate tax in the US. However, this is not the whole story the deficit is increasing at twice the rate before his tax reductions so let us get the whole story, please
October 20, 2018
Tariffs benefit neither the importing country nor the exporting one.
Tariffs are a tax on consumers and businesses forcing them either to pay the tariff, or buy things they otherwise wouldn’t have bought, in preference to things they would.
As Ronald Reagan said:-
‘Weāre in the same boat with our trading partners. If one partner shoots a hole in the boat, does it make sense for the other one to shoot another hole in the boat?
Some say, yes, and call that getting tough. Well, I call it stupid”.
Tariffs are even more stupid in the case of a country with it’s own currency and floating exchange rate.
Even if the the tariff manages to effect the Balance of Trade in favour of the importing country (which it won’t, because the victim country will retaliate with its own tariff), the improvement will be reflected in a rise in the exchange rate and the so called ‘improvement’ achieved by the tariff is lost.
The UK has never had a Balance of Payments Deficit.
The Balance of Payment ALWAYS balances. What we do have however, is a Trade Deficit, but that must mean we always have a surplus on inward investment and the profits we receive from investments we’ve made abroad.
If the Trade Deficit mysteriously shrank those other components of the Balance of Payments must deteriorate to compensate.
A rise in the exchange rate makes our existing investments abroad and the Dividends we get from them, worth less in sterling terms, and it would be more profitable for us and inward investors to make their future investments abroad rather that here and to sell their investments here and take the money somewhere else.
London has and always has had a massive visible Trade Deficit with rest of the UK. That’s no excuse to start farming on the open parks of London or building Car Factories there.
To maximise wealth and living standards we must use our land labour and capital where it makes the best returns.
October 20, 2018
Surprise surprise just turned the tv onto catch up on the news and youāve guessed it wall to wall coverage on sky and bbc about the loser snowflakes in London wanting another referendum, donāt these losers understand the meaning of democracy well apparently not, tell you what if the losers donāt want to live in a democratic country or there precious beloved Europe then go live in a undemocratic country like Venezuela bye bye youāll not be missed losers
October 20, 2018
The only boost you’re gonna get is a boost in the seat of you pants..it will be the final parting kick from the EU supremo’s..out means out..and that is how it’s going to be because the EU set know full well there will never be peace in the camp until you guys taste the bitterness of nevernever land..the wilderness..the tundra for the deluded minÄseets. Problem for a lot of brexit type people is that despite two world wars the 20th century missed you..you are therefore trying to go from the 19th century, the time of empire, to the 21st..not easy to do..so truth is we will have to wait for the next generation to straighten things out..unbelievable incredible as it may seem, in any sane persons language..at least thats how it looks to us here from Co Cork
Reply Many of us just want to leave and run our own affairs again. What is so wrong with that or so difficult to grasp? Its what most of the rest of the world does
October 20, 2018
John could I make you aware of a shocking statistic.
BBC News viewership in 2012 was 25M and fell to 22M in Q2 2017.
Shockingly it has fallen to 17M in Q2 2018.
That means a 3M fall in 5 years and a 5M fall n one year.
Surely the license fee now needs to go into freefall.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/290866/bbc-news-viewers-reached-quarterly-uk/#0
October 20, 2018
The one thing that struck me and my kids when we marched today against your Brexit was the massive range of people there. Not just young, not just families but very many sensible old people too. Calmly, politely, demonstrating.
There was one Brexiteer shouting abuse at the crowd. He looked like a Brexiteer too – and was spouting off all the best angry pensioner lines. And there were a group of thugs at the station flying Union Jacks and throwing Malteasers. No prizes for guessing which way they voted in the referendum.
October 20, 2018
You were on the Loserās March ? Ha ha ha.
October 21, 2018
ROy Graigner
What was your point on corporate taxes in America?
October 20, 2018
The longer the Brexiter MPs leave it before action, the more momentum (aided by very substantial EU funding according to Brexit Central) will build up for Remain and a second referendum. Again Brexiter MPs appear complacent and apparently unaware of the real danger that there is to Brexit being overturned.
October 20, 2018
This now from the Telegraph online:
Janet Daley: Our shadowy elites have always believed Brexit could be stopped. I’m starting to think they’re right
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/20/shadowy-elites-have-always-believed-brexit-could-stopped-starting/
October 20, 2018
SECOND REFERENDUM
If these Remainers really want a second EU Referendum they have it in their power to force one. Or at least make it much more likely than merely going on a demo will achieve.
They can go to YOUGOV and commission a big Opinion Poll asking the following question:-
‘Would you like a Second Referendum to be held to overturn the result of the previous one so, requiring the UK to Remain in the EU?
If the percentage saying ‘Yes’ (as opposed to ‘No’, ‘Don’t Know’, or ‘Don’t Care’), implies anything close to the 17.4 Million who voted Leave in 2016, they could then credibly demand another Referendum inviting people to agree with the following statement:-
”I wish to overturn the result of the 2016 EU Referendum and stay in the EU’
If more than 17.4 Million people turn out and vote for it. Parliament will, no doubt feel obliged to comply.
Leave supporters or people who wish to respect the result of the 2016 Referendum need not vote at all.
Reply Not a good idea. If people had wanted a second vote they would have voted Lib Dem or SNP in the 2017 election.
October 20, 2018
A question for you, Mr Redwood, please. The reason the PM’s office is giving for considering an extra year of ‘Transition’ is to enable more time to be allowed for finding s solution to the Irish situation. I thought that the transition period referred to the period AFTER the Withdrawal Agreement had been signed and that the EU had insisted that the Irish situation had to be resolved before they would move on to discuss trade talks? If I am right, how can an extra year be of any help whatsoever?
Reply Search me. How can they think of a solution after 4 years which they cant think up today?
October 20, 2018
Iām a bit puzzled by todayās Losers March. They all voted Remain in the last Peopleās Vote In 2016 but now they want another one because they say they didnāt know what they were voting for. Well, they were voting to remain in the EU – what didnāt they understand about that?
October 20, 2018
Just seen the People’s vote rally on TV.
Seemingly everyone of ’em is a PC left winger. Not a placard in sight supporting democratic vote – all calling for brexit to be stopped. Nothing I could see was actually to do with having another vote.
Remainers in disguise obviously.
Presumably the work shy lentil eaters have been at a loss since Greenham Common closed, and got nowhere with the fracking.
October 20, 2018
Ms Sourbry ( Tory MP) said on TV that she asked Mr Ummuna weeks ago ” How many do we expect to turn up on the demonstration and he said at best 250,000″
Good to see the Tory Party working closely for the next election of a Tory Government. Surprise the bulk of the Labour Party have the same goal. Well spottted by Ms Soubry. The jewel in the crown of Conservative Governance.
October 20, 2018
You conclude, “I am still awaiting a formal reply to my letter proposing the government now publish our tariff schedule for next March. They have told me informally they agree, so will they get on and do it”.
John. you are a veteran MP now who has been re-elected at every GE since you became MP for Wokingham in the last century. If the Conservative Government of the day cannot (Or should that be “Will Not”?) respond to a very valid and extremely important question from you, a long-standing MP AND member of the Conservative Party, concerning the future of your Constituents and the ordinary people of this country, it demonstrates just how far they are in following the despicable principles of the European Union, from whom we are desperately attempting to extricate ourselves. The so-called ‘Brussels mafia’ think NOTHING of the people they are supposed to represent and that dictatorial attitude has now been adopted by Mrs May and her Remainer Cabinet. This woman has become a grotesque embarrassment and an anti-democratic liability to both this Country and to her Party.
Please remove her before HER deals are concluded and at the very latest months before the next General Election. I fear that later will be too late to save the Conservatives and this country.
Surely she must know from the recent Polls that when a communist Labour leader is preferred to her, SHE MUST be doing something radically wrong.
“Power corrupts absolute power corrupts absolutely” to which I add – ‘AND blinds the recipient of such power’.