Bad deals

Versions of a possible deal for the UK with the EU have today been denied by the government. That’s sensible of them. All the versions I have seen are not Brexit. Let’s just leave, spend our own money, and negotiate a free trade deal once the EU has realised we are out. There’s nothing on offer worth £39bn.

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182 Comments

  1. Freeborn John
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    It is simply astonishing that the parliamentary party allows this complete incompetent to remain in Downing Street. What have you got to lose by trying to remove her.

    • Treacle
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

      It isn’t that she is incompetent (although she is). It is that she is trying to keep us in the EU in everything but name, because she is a Remainer and thinks that Brexit would be a disaster.

      When David Cameron resigned, the Conservative Party decided that we should have a Remainer Prime Minister and a largely Remainer Cabinet. It is as if the country voted for Corbyn’s Labour, and the Conservative government was then tasked with implementing his policies. Everything that has happened stems from this fundamental mistake by the Conservatives. When the country voted Leave, Leave should then have become the official position of the Conservative Party, and we should have had a Leave Prime Minister and a Leave Cabinet (including Dr Redwood and Mr Rees-Mogg in prominent positions).

      • Hope
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

        What is astonishing is that JR seems to believe May AKA govt! She has proven to be completely untrustworthy, incapable of keeping her word and a liar.

        Today May writes NHS natural home of Tories, is this to convince people to trust her before she betrays the nation over Brexit? May has no morals or values worth listening to, her behaviour is nothing short of disgusting as we saw last December and with her parallel Brexit plan ambushed on the Brexit team/secretary and the cabinet in July. Only last week conhome point out how she proposed to give away £40 billion for nothing, political declaration for trade is no guarantee, territorial waters and fishing stocks given away, N.Ireland given away again, keep UK in customs union etc.

        A very bad deal to date and in stark contrast to what May stated in her twelve points from her Lancaster speech. She stated quite clearly half in and half our ormremaining in part is not leaving. May is now proposing far worse than this and to the bewilderment of the public remains in office! Conhome poll want her gone, the nation wants her gone. It is only a small amount of Tory MPs who want her.

        How many times do Tory MPs have to be hoodwinked before they get rid of this odious woman? No one in their right mind would believe her, even the cabinet want legal advice on any deal she proposes! There is no trust in May.

        • Hope
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

          Nothing stops a trade deal being agreed but not coming into force until 30/03/2019. This is a sham and another lie.

        • NickC
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

          Hope, Well said. It is sad but true that Theresa May is deliberately implementing Remain.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        The Tories are the party of big business, but especially the parts of big business which are among the 6% of UK companies which export 12% of GDP to the rest of the EU. The other 94% of companies responsible for 88% of GDP rank lower than the EU exporters and must do the best they can under the plethora of EU laws imposed to suit the interests of that small minority of businesses. I don’t exactly how or why the Tory party got itself into the rather peculiar position of being captured by that narrow sectional interest, but clearly Theresa May does not intend that it shall break free. It would be more understandable if we ran a trade surplus with the rest of the EU but of course that is never the case, our trade with the EU is a constant drain on the economy rather than a supporting pillar.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

          The Tories under Mrs Appeaser May are the party of big, increasing (and largely incompetent) government, very high, complex and increasing taxation, a Brexit in name only con trick, the dire NHS, endless green crap and top down over regulation of almost everything. With Corbyn/SNP to follow for pudding.

        • Edward2
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

          I think the reason is that the biggest companies are organised.
          They have lobbyists.
          They employ PR companies.
          They have powerful organisations.
          Whereas the small companies whilst bigger in number do not.
          So the only voices government hears is the plc’s and multi nationals.

          • Al
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

            *So the only voices government hears is the plc’s and multi nationals.*

            …and then they hear from the rest at the ballot box, and wonder why they get voted out.

      • Helen Smith
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

        Yes, yes, yes

      • Lifelogic.
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        I still blame Michael Gove for stabbing Boris in the back.

        Appeaser May is just appalling in every single way. All her policies are wrong and not just her Brexit in name only. She is duplicitous, disingenuous, full of PC drivel and green crap, robotic, lacking any positive vision, bossy, has increases tax and daft regulations hugely, she is robot, threw an election and is a huge electoral liability.

        Today in the Mail she writes that Her appalling “Tories are now the natural party of the NHS”. I assume that under her everything will become a dire, death causing, state run monopoly if she is allowed to continue then. The NHS will soon take 40% of state expenditure and yet it is appalling in general at delivering value. It has rationing, delays, incompetence and exhibits breathtaking incompetence and indifference.

        “Customer” are treated with compete contempt as they have your money already. This despite that fact that many working in the NHS are dedicated, diligent and hard working. The system and funding just does not work as currently structured and never will. Free at the point of use (rationing) is the main problem.

        • Lifelogic.
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

          £2.2 billion PA just on dealing with NHS negligence claims I read.

          Theresa May say she “relies on the NHS every day to manage her diabetes”. Does she to have to wait well over a week to get an appointment a GP I wonder? Or wait a typical couple of hours in a casualty waiting room before even being assessed. Does she have to ring back tomorrow between 9.00 and 10.00 (usually to listen to an engaged tone) to see if they can fit her the next day (as they have no appointments today)?

          I note that unlike most diabetics she has been given an expensive continuous monitoring blood glucose system rather than the finger prick system that nearly all NHS diabetic patients have to manage with. Is she aware of the typical treatment that most people receive (if they are lucky enough to get any treatment) from the NHS? One suspects May’s NHS treatment is hardly typical.

          • JoolsB
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:27 am | Permalink

            At PMQs this deluded woman said the system was available to everyone on the NHS only for diabetics everywhere to say it wasn’t available to them and they had been denied them. May is a liar full stop. We can’t believe a word that comes out of her mouth and yet she is still in office – unbelievable.

          • Hope
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

            I recently was admitted to hospital at the end I was given a survey form to complete and one question asked would I recommend to a Friend! FFS, I had no choice what hospital I was admitted to, would I recommend being admitted to hospital? No. Who thought of the stupid question, who has to analyse the stupid question and for what purpose and at what cost? Brought to you by stupid Hunt followed by another May remain clone who is clueless!

            The same Health Secretary on TV today saying we would not be in a customs union when we leave. This is patently untrue because of May’s punishment extension as a vassal state. He should resign for lying or misleading the public. Come 30/03/2019 if the UK is in any form of customs union he should be dragged back on TV shown his comment and sacked.

          • Iain Gill
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

            JoolsB,

            Yes it is definitely not available everywhere. All the CCG’s have different criteria, and even firm letter from consultant demanding that these are prescribed often does not lead to this being prescribed.

          • Stred
            Posted November 6, 2018 at 10:33 am | Permalink

            The NHS is currently spending resources on advertising the flu jab and how it looks after us. The wait for the jab is around 3 week+, in which time it is best to avoid going out on crowded places. The GPs have been told to only offer the jab in clinic days, so that we have to sit with other patients who may be infectious. Mine is on a Saturday and I have had to cancel s family meeting. My wife was offered a Tuesday during working hours or wait another month for Saturday. The convenience of the patient counts for nothing.

      • Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        Very well put, Treacle. Absolutely right – ”Leave should then have become the official position of the Conservative Party” ie, the Government. That it didn’t is unforgivable. And I don’t think the Conservative party WILL be forgiven, if it doesn’t get it right from now on by engineering a clean break.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

        Exactly and not a dim, remainer, robotic liar.

    • Chris
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

      Now she is intending to shore up her position by getting rid of some Brexiter MPs in her Cabinet, if the Mail is to be believed (Grayling, Leadsom, McVey in line for the chop?).

    • Largehosier
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

      Not for want of trying methinks.

      @StandUp4Brexit (twitter)
      6h6 hours ago

      DAVID DAVIES TODAY;

      “What on earth are we waiting for, engaging in destructive traps such as a backstop we can’t get out of, a common rulebook that makes us a vassal-state and a customs arrangement that stops us making trade deals with the rest of the world?” @DavidDavisMP

      • Sir Joe Soap
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

        Our PM is phenomenally stupid. Not evil.

        A liar only because she has to be to maintain this false appearance of fence sitting.

        But mainly just stupid.

  2. oldwulf
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Quite right.

    • Richard
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

      Whitehall wants the UK to pay whatever Brussels calculates. And strong hints already exist that the final cost could well greatly exceed £39Bn.
      For example:
      a) “eurocrats briefed German media that the tab will actually reach £90 billion. Senior EU officials boasted that they managed to pull the wool over British taxpayers’ eyes with “mathematical acrobatics”. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5581747/theresa-may-barnier-hide-90billion-brexit-bill/ (written by two knowledgable journalists, one based in Brussels)
      b) The reste à liquider (RAL) wish-list:
      – has ‘unexpectedly’ now increased to €267.3 billion http://facts4eu.org/news_octc_2018.shtml#eca ; and
      – page 14 of CBP 7886 of 4Jan 2018 says: “It appears that the UK’s figure assumes a greater proportion of decommitments than the EU usually assumes.”
      c) If HM Treasury are wrong to assume that the UK’s new guarantee of EU ‘contingent liabilities’ will never fall due.

      The £39Bn estimate also excludes continuing payments to areas defined as outside the EU Budget eg
      – EU’s €30bn “European Development Fund”
      – EU’s “European Peace Fund” http://facts4eu.org/news_jun2_2018.shtml#epf
      – EU’s €6bn ‘off-the-books’ Turkey fund
      – EU’s €3bn ‘off-the-books’ Africa fund
      https://facts4eu.org/news_oct_2018.shtml#bill2
      – Continuing payments to various EU programmes: “The civil service is already preparing to roll over on [more money for Brussels]: I understand that the Foreign Office has estimated that Britain will end up paying about half of the current membership fee in perpetuity.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/19/number-10s-secret-brexit-back-up-plan-could-rescue-conservatives/

      • Cerberus
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:26 am | Permalink

        Fine, our war reparations bill is £1 trillion. we need the cash before any further negotiations.

      • davies
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

        there is also a £10BN pensions liability to cover not just British Officials

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

          Where does it say we have to pick up furture pension liabilities? These are EU liabilities they should have made provision for at the time of the employment.

  3. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    Businesses are now saying any deal is better than no deal. You couldn’t make it up. They are playing straight into the EU’s hands. Talk about easy pickings.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

      Fedupsoutherner

      In other words to hell with democratic vote and our sovereignty, their big fat profits and access to cheap labour are far more important.

      They needn’t worry though, they’ve got May on their side.

      I’ve been a conservative voter all my life, but you know I think I will vote labour at the next election, just for revenge.

      • John Hatfield
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

        Vote UKIP Steve. The only party that’s not “connected”.

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

          John, I’m voting ukip. I cannot vote Conservative nor Labour.

          • JoolsB
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:34 am | Permalink

            Me too. The only reason I didn’t vote for them last time was because they didn’t put up a candidate in my constituency because we had a ‘Brexit supporting MP’. Hope they don’t fall for that one again. The Tories can’t be trusted on Brexit.

          • Cerberus
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:27 am | Permalink

            +1

          • Sir Joe Soap
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

            Yes we had a daft chap for UKIP last time, so I voted for this woman. UKIP guy was a bit daft, but not a liar and not this stupid. It will be down to a choice of undesirables next time, but UKIP are least of those.

            So UKIP it has to be.

  4. Helena
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    The £39 bn is not payment for a future deal. It pays for existing liabilities. The government has agreed to this and explained it clearly. Why do you continue to misrepresent the status of the £39 bn?

    • Hope
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

      No it isn’t not. First temso called liabilities have never been itemised. May offered £20 billion in the first instance, was she trying to short change the EU? Lords make it clear there is no legal liability to pay anything. May promised a line by linemexamination. Let us see for ourselves. You could not believe her or take her at her word!

      Finally, how about UK assets in addition to the £39 billion making £100 billion. FFS just to talk about a trade deficit! No country in the world has promised so much for so little in return. May has lost her sesnses putting political agenda over and above any financial, social, cultural, independent, sovereign, national, patriotic or any other reason.

    • Edward2
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

      what liabilities are they?

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

      Helena

      If the £39 billion was really owed, then why is it not agreed in its own right, why is it only payable if everything else is agreed.

      Face facts, its a bribe to try and get a good trade deal.

      First we should never condone bribery.
      Second we will not get a good trade deal !
      Third it is not owed under any agreement, we are simply calling a bribe by another name, by making up the reason that we will will fund a period when we will not be a member out of the kindness of our hearts.

      Has the EU been kind to us over the years ?

      • margaret howard
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

        Alan

        “First we should never condone bribery.”

        Any comments on the £1b plus bribe the Prime Minister paid the DUP for the 10 votes necessary to keep her party and herself in power?

        • Edward2
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

          My comment is that you are wrond margaret.
          The DUP got no money.
          Anything extra went to everyone in Northern Ireland.
          But you know that really don’t you?

        • NickC
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

          Margaret Howard, So you see no difference between distributing money within the UK, and squandering our money on a foreign political ideology? The Northern Irish are family – part of the UK. Do you give 39 times more to a perfect stranger in the street than you give to your son/daughter/husband/brother/sister/parents? Unless of course you are arguing that we should only pay the EU £1bn? I’d go for that.

          • margaret howard
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

            I wouldn’t pay a bribe to anyone, family or outsider.

            Nepotism has no place in a modern society.

          • Nick Martinek
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

            Margaret Howard, The money paid to Wales, N.I., Scotland, and England is the agreed legal distribution of money collected from UK taxpayers. It may be an unfair division, and I would argue that case, but it is not bribery – it is national government spending within one nation. Paying money that we do not owe, to a foreign ideology that we are leaving, cannot be described in any other way than as a bribe.

        • libertarian
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

          margaret howard

          Any comment on the billions of taxpayers money paid out to various interest groups by the EU?

        • Alan Jutson
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

          margaret

          Others have already made the point.

          Another bribe is foreign aid for contracts.

          Cut foreign aid, and cut import duty tariffs, trade is better than aid, help countries to actually help themselves to trade out of poverty.

    • Helen Smith
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

      The HoL was quite clear no money is owed, and they are hardly pro Leave. All the years we have been members we have been a net contributer bar one, funnily enough 1975, we owe nothing, if we were a net beneficiary country do you think we would be paid to leave?

    • JustGetOnWithBrexit
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      Helena

      “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.

      Our Remainer haven – aka the HoL has confirmed – we owe nothing.

      How many times does this have to be repeated ?

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

      Because a cross-party House of Lords committee has confirmed there is no legal basis whatsoever for the 39bn payment ? Seems likely they know more about it than you Helena.

    • A.Sedgwick
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

      What about the assets?

    • acorn
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

      Exactly so Helena. The WTO does not allow members to pay for a trade deal. It is classed as an illegal state subsidy for its exporters. As you say, the £39 billion is a settlement for commitments the UK has entered into, as a member of the EU, over one or more MFF 7 year EU budgets. The £39 billion is a UK estimate, I am not aware of the EU ever putting a figure on the divorce bill, which will be invoiced in Euro.

      Have a read of what has been agreed in Chapter 4 at https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/728757/6.4737_Cm9674_Legislating_for_the_withdrawl_agreement_FINAL_230718_v3a_WEB_PM.pdf

      • NickC
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

        Acorn, The UK’s commitments cannot be greater than we pay net into the EU (about £10bn/yr to the end of the current MFF), because our payments have been agreed for much longer than the most recent MFF. Moreover we do not legally owe for budgets (the MFF is a budget) we only owe for incurred and agreed to be undertaken expenditure. The UK does owe the EU some money upon leaving (assuming we leave, which currently won’t happen), but the EU owes us as well. The balance is about £0bn depending on assumptions. The £39bn is a bribe.

      • libertarian
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

        acorn

        I thought you were leaving to do some work?

        Did it not come off

        Hope they weren’t South Koreans pretending to be French.

        If there are liabilities there are also assets.

        • acorn
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:40 am | Permalink

          Coming to a street light near you. A 7kW EV charging socket. The problem is how many can you connect to the existing cables and still have some volts left at the end of the cable.

    • Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

      It seems you are reading different sources from most of us here, Helena.
      Facebook, perhaps?

    • Richard
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

      The UK has no legal or moral obligation to pay the EU anything.

      Our host on the HoL report & noblesse oblige in Hansard: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/30/my-speech-during-the-debate-on-the-budget-29-october-2018/#comment-970004

      Page 15 of a well known report says the EU’s legal “argument on the general EU budget is vanishingly weak to non-existent”; and Page 25 makes clear that the UK has absolutely no moral obligation to pay the divorce bill:
      “Mr Cameron’s Bloomberg speech in which he announced an In-Out referendum on membership was given in January 2013, whereas the current MFF and ORD run from the beginning of 2014 and were negotiated and agreed during 2014. So all the Member States knew when the ORD and MFF were agreed that it was all dependent on the UK voting to stay in the EU in the referendum.”
      http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/files/the-withdrawal-of-the-uk-from-the-eu–analysis-of-potential-financial-liabilities.pdf

      There is also no moral reason why the UK is not receiving:
      a) its share of EU assets (Galilleo, EU buildings etc),
      b) the UK rebate for the final year, or
      c) retained prior year profits at the EDB.

      Legally, the EU owes the UK: https://brexitcentral.com/dont-owe-eu-money-fact-well-owed-e10-billion/ and the EU know this: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/30/brexit-showdown-eu-left-flabbergasted-british-negotiators-dismantle/

    • Lifelogic.
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

      Tosh what as these existing liabilities can we have the computation? Anyway what about a share of all the assets we have paid for (the building and the likes).

  5. Billy Elliot
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Nope. We have been in EU around 40 years. It might take few years and include CU for few years but if it softens the eventual nose dive it is worth it – rushing things just makes it worse. Those 39 billions we don’t have anyway anywhere (unless we take a loan) so we cant just go and “spend our own money”. We won’t be paying our obligations on a spot – it will take nearly 59 years. But yes we might have some few hundred millions extra if we just leave – technically. But then the economical nose dive might be so rough that it does not really help.
    So dear Brexiteers chill out and try to live with the thought that process Brexit might take bit more than two years.

  6. nhsgp
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Ask May how many nurses get sacked to pay off the EU for nowt

    • Lifelogic.
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      Well £39 Bn divided by say £30,000 gives you 1,300,000 nurses for one year or 130,000 nurses for ten years. Actually rather more than that as about 30% of the nurses pay comes directly back to government in income Tax and NI!

      • margaret howard
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 10:01 am | Permalink

        Today in ‘What the papers say’:

        “Meanwhile, an investigation by the Times has found that companies and charities are making millions of pounds by treating NHS patients in psychiatric hospitals that are sometimes sub-standard and fail to provide adequate or safe care.

        It says thousands of patients are detained – sometimes against their will and in other cases for many years – in wards and units that inspectors say don’t meet required standards of care.

        Fees charged to the NHS for psychiatric care can be as high as £13,000 pounds a week, it adds”
        ===

        That means that at over £624 000 per person is being extorted from the NHS. In my reckoning that would pay for an extra 20 nurses.

        Add to that the billions greedy drug companies charge the NHS and we could employ thousands more nurses without breaking our contract with our old partner, the EU.

        • Lifelogic.
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

          Extorted from the NHS? Surely it is up to the NHS to ensure they are getting value for money and ensure that their subcontractors are providing quality care for the money they pay over to them.

          But the NHS cannot even do that it seems.

  7. Anonymous
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    So long as you are sure, Dr Redwood. Promise us Leavers that if you have any doubts about walking away that you’ll let us know them.

    We are being hammered ceaselessly with anti Brexit news out here.

  8. Brigham
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    May, Hammond, Soubry, and any other non democrat. Should be chucked out of having any say in Brexit. My own MP is also a traitor (Damian Collins) He won’t be getting my vote in future.

    • JoolsB
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

      Unfortunately Brigham, the majority of them are remainers and will do anything to keep us in the EU and stuff what we the people voted for. Democracy in this country sucks.

    • Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

      Same with mine, Brigham. I’ve written to him; sometimes he’s answered. But he sounds exactly like Mrs May – insincere waffle and weasel words. I don’t trust him any more, and I won’t vote for him.

      • Largehosier
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

        My M.P. John Stevenson doesn’t even reply. Just checked his twitter he’s a remainer. I’ll be keeping my conservative membership but voting UKIP until we have a Brexit leader.

  9. Den
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    I wonder what we would find if there was an investigation into the backgrounds of those who wish us to remain under the control of a foreign cabal based in a foreign country. Battles were fought worldwide to free Independence-seeking Nations from such an Oligarchy.
    I can see no other reason than that of being given “30 pieces of silver” to surrender your country to an anti-democracy that is not even based in the homeland.
    Where else in the world does an EU-type organisation occur? NOWHERE. And ‘Nowhere’ is Utopia whereas the EU is Dystopia and just who really wants that? Only those with their vested interests.

    • vera
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

      It has already been said that the closest comparison to the EU is the old Soviet Russia, hence EUSSR – an unaccountable unelected, undemocratic elite live the high life on the taxes us ‘little people’ pay. They very cleverly use our own money to promote themselves by bribery. As Gorbachev said – I have lived your life (in EU) and it doesn’t work.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 5:32 am | Permalink

        Indeed.

      • Mitchel
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 10:32 am | Permalink

        That much repeated quote from Gorbachev was,I believe,a knowing riposte to a now largely forgotten quote by the American journalist,Lincoln Steffens,who went on a fact-finding mission to the bolshevik state in March 1919 who reported back:”I have seen the future-and it works”whilst also admitting that there was a “temporary condition of evil which is made tolerable by hope and a plan.”

        Steffens,himself,may be forgotten but his fellow travellers live on!

      • davies
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

        Its quite funny you should say that. The Rouble zone had a similar physical structure to the Euro albeit the Euro zone is far bigger in size which fixed all the smaller communist states to the central Russian currency in the way that every country is tied to the DM whilst retaining their own currency underpinning systems.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

      Den

      “I wonder what we would find if there was an investigation into the backgrounds of those who wish us to remain under the control of a foreign cabal”

      Presumably you are referring to those in our quisling government.

      Indeed it’d be a right Pandora’s box I’m sure. Though certainly after brexit / BRINO whatever, these people need arresting on charges of sedition and treason.

      Personally I think the punishment should be comparable to that which was carried out around the time of the gunpowder plot.

      • Lifelogic.
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

        Start perhaps with those who are entitled to EU pensions (often with special tax arrangements) such as Baron Mandelson, Lord Kinnock and the likes or the funding of the BBC, CBI …. or look at the gravy train it has created for the largely parasitic legal “industry”.

        • Rien Huizer
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

          What about a certain UKIP MEP?

          • Cerberus
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

            What about him? Please explain rather than smear with your EU propaganda

        • margaret howard
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 10:09 am | Permalink

          Lifelogic

          We could start by not paying our unelected lords – all 778 of them – £300 a day for turning up to have a quiet snooze. They can then go for subsidised refreshments to various bars, restaurants etc with access to the best wine cellars in the country.

          • Lifelogic
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

            £300 a day tax free, worth about the £11,000 per month as a gross salary before tax. Enough to rub by on while they combine to try to usurp the Brexit vote and public will. All paid for mainly by the people they are trying to usurp.

  10. agricola
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    I would like some clarification of what is being negotiated at present. I get the impression that it is only about the structure of the relationship between the UK/EU when we leave end March 2019. I sense that it is not about a future trade treaty on goods and services. This I suspect comes later and will be subject to further months of negotiation. This I could live with provided that it is crystal clear that not one penny of the talked of £39 Billion will be paid until a satisfactory trade treaty on goods and services is agreed

  11. Wilt helm wil tellum
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    I honestly would not wish failure on Mrs May . For myself and others normal, failure is expected. We have our excuses and exits. One gets used to it.
    I imagine for a PM to fail, as he is too intelligent to kid himself, it must catastrophe.
    In the-that Blair Major and Brown but an easy excuse intelligence-wise.

    # “the-that” , MUST exist, I feel

    • vera
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

      They say all politicians lives end in failure – they get voted out.

  12. JustGetOnWithBrexit
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    Totally agree, Mr Redwood.

    Meanwhile:-
    ……………………………………..

    LOST AND FOUND ADVERT

    LOST – One Tory Party ‘MORAL COMPASS’

    Last seen at Lancaster House…but known to have disappeared in the area of Chequers…in July 2018…while in the care of Theresa May.

    Large reward for return.

    If found…please contact Conservative Party HQ.

  13. Chris Maughan
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    John,

    I completely agree with you, but I’m struggling to see how we make it happen.
    I have a growing concern that the PM will gain enough support across the house to get her version of “Brexit” passed.
    She appears to be looking for a “Brexit” which will appease both the 52% leavers and the 48% remainers. It’s all guess work on her part as to how the electorate will react. Polls suggest nothing she has proposed so far gets much public support.

  14. Bob
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    Eloquently put Mr Redwood, so refreshing to hear a politician say what they mean and mean what they say.

    The question now is when are you going to bring down this EU Quisling government and make way for a proper British government.

  15. William Long
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    The denial can only be good news if the rumours of the nature of the rumoured deal are true.
    No deal is the only attractive thing on the table at the moment.

  16. Richard1
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

    Just watched Aaron Banks being interviewed by Andrew Marr. I don’t find Mr Banks’s approach to politics appealing but no-one could watch that interview and doubt that Mr Marr and presumably his employer are rabidly biased on Brexit. If Mr Banks is cleared in the coming court case he should be knighted for the public service to democracy of even-ing up the money in the referendum following the Govts gift of £9m to remain.

    • Anonymous
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

      As well as the £9m used for leafleting the many millions for security of the PotUS who threatened us in terms obviously coached by English people during his visit, “…back of the queue.”

      Then the priceless extension of the voting registration clearly advantageous to Remain. 48 hours granted for a one hour blip in the matrix.

      • NickC
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

        Anon, Remains set up “daughter” campaigns to Britain Stronger In when it became apparent that the money flooding into BSI would top the limit it was allowed.

    • Lifelogic.
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

      They have not even made Nigel Farage a Duke yet! Indeed they have given him nothing so far!

  17. Edwardm
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    I agree. Simple and straightforward.
    Why has our government been spending the last two years pandering to the EU, making artificial difficulties, and creating a complicated and disadvantageous non-solution.

    How have we got such incompetents in government.

  18. Oggy
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    What you suggest John is what we voted for in 2016 – to LEAVE – and was made quite clear by the Government leaflet we all got, Cameron, the EU and even Cleggy that leaving the EU meant leaving the Customs Union and Single market.

    We all believed and were promised by Government that the result would be implemented, but the behaviour of most of the politicians of all parties since the referendum (excepting yourself and some others) has been quite simply disgraceful, trying at every twist and turn to weasel out of it and to overturn the result by any means possible, including insulting us, changing the goalposts and now even preposterously saying the Russians did it.
    The biggest insult is TM trying to pull the wool over our eyes via her ‘Chequers deal’ which wouldn’t be a bad deal it would be a terrible deal.

    They all know who they are and should be completely ashamed of themselves, these people call themselves democrats – what a bloody joke.

    Standup4Brexit

    • JoolsB
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

      Not to mention virtually every politician in both the remain and leave camp told us it would mean leaving the customs union and single market and 80% went on to vote for parties that said in their manifestos this is what would happen. I’m sick of the majority of self serving MPs declaring we didn’t know what we voted for but they want to respect the outcome of the referendum – like hell they do. May is a traitor and unfortunately for democracy, so are the majority of 650 MPs at Westminster,

  19. ukretired123
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Sir Winston Churchill’s 1941 speech “Do your worst and we will do our best” springs to mind over the last 40 years and 2 years of extricating ourselves from the EU clutches and tentacles. The British people (and their Allies from all over the world) helped save Europe many many times over the last 100+ years and sacrificed millions of lives in the process. Even UK war damage costing trillions was secretly written off by Douglas Hurd to aid the EU with no thanks nor acknowledgement just collective EU amnesia even the EU taking credit for UK’s Cold War contributions to Peace!
    Mr Redwood’s a modest and cool headed MP who I have the utmost respect for blowing away the woolly headed and frothy emotions that prevail in the permanent fog of media and celebrity hysteria. ‘Empty vessels make the most sound’ applies here.

  20. The PrangWizard
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    Sky News is saying government is saying the story in the Sunday Times about May’s deal to keep us in a customs union is ‘speculation’. Only speculation. That is not a denial.

    Can we believe anything May, or anyone speaking for her says? Can we hellaslike. She is not to be trusted.

  21. libertarian
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    Brexit IS NOT going to happen while the Conservative Party keep May, Hammond and Robbins in office its a simple as that

    Grow some and get rid. NOW

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

      Libertarian,

      As far as I know they are still negotiating but you already have all the answers to what will be happening, we seem to have been here before. (Merkle)

      Any other questions?

      • NickC
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

        Hans, We have read the Chequers plan that Theresa May still maintains is the basis of the “leave” (ha ha) agreement. Are you saying you know better than Mrs May the terms which she is herself negotiating, and which she says are 95% complete? Extraordinary!

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

          NickC

          Stop asking very unwise questions

          • Nick Martinek
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

            Hans, No answer then?

      • libertarian
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

        hans

        You aren’t seriously trying to claim I was wrong about Merkel? Really ? Really? Have you not read a newspaper, watched the news, seen any election results or read the statement from er Frau Merkel herself? OH, MY , WORD .

        She’s negotiating a plan to stay in you fool. Theres only one plan to leave and thats done and dusted, WTO

        Any questions you say, well yes, are you OK? Have you moved to North Korea?

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 9:17 am | Permalink

          Libertarian,

          It is very characteristic of your form of arguing to turn it personal at the fist opportunity. Go after the ball not the man, but you will probably never learn, will you ?

          Merkel is still chancellor and you keep on with the same nonsense

          • Nick Martinek
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

            Hans, You are projecting again. You characteristically criticise the commenter rather than addressing the argument; and rarely cite sources.

          • libertarian
            Posted November 7, 2018 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

            hans

            Yes I’m talking to you. There is no one else here trying to claim that when I said Merkle was in trouble and wouldn’t remain in charge I was wrong. Just you.

            As you never use facts, evidence, links or any other form of rational argument I’m just left with your personal rhetoric to counter

            You totally lack credibility

  22. Bob
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    With the vacancy now needing to be filled after the resignation of the Sports Minister an opportunity has arisen to start redressing the breathtaking imbalance between Remainers and Leavers in Theresa May’s Cabinet.

    What odds would you give on that happening?

    • Chris
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

      A reshuffle is going to happen, if the Mail is to be believed, but not in the way you would hope. Instead, 3 of the last Brexiter MPs in Cabinet are to be removed (Grayling, McVey, and Leadsom) apparently, supposedly because they are being a nuisance to the PM and her plans.

      The PM just gets away with one appalling action after another, and still no one challenges her. It is, however in keeping with the EU modus operandi/method of doing things: little by little strengthen your grip so that the people can be duped and not realise what is happening. When they do realise it is too late.

      However, none of the voters are being duped. Apparently it only the Tory MPs who are being duped. They still fail to act to ensure that Brexit is effected and democracy is upheld.

  23. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    According to a woman commenting on TV it is now universally acknowledged that to leave the EU without a deal would be a catastrophe. She admitted that she supported Labour and was and still is strongly on favour of Remain, but to the extent that her claim is true I’m afraid that the blame rests about as much with prominent Leave supporters as with those on the Remain side including the government.

    For months I’ve been urging that there should be a clear distinction made between:

    A. Leaving the EU without any agreement at all on anything, therefore with a lot of legal and practical loose threads left hanging; and

    B. Leaving the EU with those threads tied up to secure a smooth and orderly withdrawal, but a withdrawal without any new special or preferential trade deal, just defaulting to the WTO trade treaties which do not need to be negotiated with the EU because they already exist and are already in force for the EU and all its member states as well as the UK.

    I come back to my comment of November 26 2017:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/11/26/the-irish-border-with-northern-ireland/#comment-903216

    “So we should now say that rather than kowtow to the stupid destructive intransigence of the EU we will fall back on WTO trade rules and only seek agreements on the practical or technical aspects of continuing trade.”

    But nobody has listened, we still have this nonsense about leaving without any agreement at all on anything at all and so saving many billions of pounds, etc etc, but somehow trade will still continue uninterrupted and planes still will fly etc etc, and that is so implausible that of course it will make people more inclined to believe that it would necessarily be a catastrophe even before the Treasury chips in again with new editions of its previous lies about how terribly bad it would be to revert to WTO terms of trade.

    • Hope
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

      Dennis, it is amusing how the govt tries to I still fear of a catastrophe it fails to explain this what the UK does with the rest of the world which has a larger share of our trade!

      No govt in history throughout the world has used every dept, trick scare, media brief to misinform, mislead and lie to thwart the central govt policy that it stood to be elected on and promised to deliver. This is treachery in the extreme. The govt has no public mandate and as such ought to be ousted by any and every means if it defies the electoral democracy of the country. Otherwise we are expected to live in a May tyranny.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

        And when we are trading with the rest of the world we do not agree to all of their different laws being imposed in our territory, and simultaneously even if some of them will then be in conflict.

        So Theresa May does not say:

        “As we want to trade goods with Australia we must agree to incorporate all relevant Australian rules into our domestic law”,

        and

        “As we want to trade goods with Canada we must agree to incorporate all relevant Canadian rules into our domestic law”,

        and so on until she has worked her way through all the non-EU countries around the world one by one.

        It is only when it comes to trading goods with the EU countries that she is straight away down on her knees doing homage and freely volunteering to obey all relevant EU law even after we have left the EU.

        If she said that only goods destined for export to Australia must conform to Australian standards, and similarly only goods destined for export to the EU must conform to EU standards, then that would make sense.

        Here is a little snippet from February, Mike Stallard should welcome it:

        http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86777

        “From an historical perspective, the news of meat suppliers Russell Hume going into liquidation is of some interest, not least because one of the more prominent reports of the event is carried by the Guardian.

        It was this newspaper which, back in the late 1980s, led the campaign for the uniform application of the supposedly more rigorous “European” meat hygiene standards. This was at a time when, before the advent of the Single Market, only operations which exported to EC countries were required to meet European standards.

        Eventually, the Guardian was to get its way, following the promulgation of Council Directive 91/497/EEC. The effect on the meat industry was devastating, with the loss of over 1,400 small/medium slaughterhouses and cutting premises.”

      • Steve
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

        Hope

        “The govt has no public mandate and as such ought to be ousted by any and every means if it defies the electoral democracy of the country.”

        Oh it will be, they’ve made the mistake of dismissing the will of the British people and a further mistake of thinking we’ll take this lying down.

        Whether it’s by ballot box or civil unrest, we’ll get these monkeys and bring them to answer for their treachery.

    • Chris
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

      This distinction was never made by government as they had no intention of promoting anything to do with leaving. Heaven forfend that a member of May’s government actually tries to do anything constructive and positive towards actually leaving the EU.

    • NickC
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

      Denis Cooper, I have previously attempted to promote the phrases “no trade deal” or “WTO deal” as being better than the erroneous term “no deal”. So I have striven on the same lines as yourself to separate out a putative trade deal from the agreements necessary to effect Leave, though probably not as clearly, or as often, as you have done.

      However I am not convinced that we need “a lot” of agreements with the EU to effect your “B” option. Surely many of the agreements we need to make for fishing, shipping, airline operation, diplomacy, security, etc, need to be made with international institutions, not the EU? Indeed, we did not need the EU’s permission to incorporate their Regulations into UK law.

      So I cannot see what more we would need than: an exit date agreement; a financial settlement agreement; formal notification of the use of the WTO system to trade; mutual recognition of certification (institutions) not covered by international agreements.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:53 am | Permalink

        But over six decades the EEC/EC/EU has systematically encroached into so many areas of life which have little or nothing to do with trade that there must be numerous cases where the application of the current agreement to the UK has been made contingent on the UK’s EU membership. Unnecessarily, yes, in most instances, and maybe even incidentally rather than with specific intent, but nevertheless the connections have been made and so if those agreements are to continue to operated then it will be necessary to update them to reflect the new circumstance that the UK is no longer in the EU. You cannot allow the EU to make about half of your new laws year after year and then suddenly walk away without tidying up all the legal loose ends, not unless you want legal and practical chaos.

        • Nick Martinek
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

          Denis Cooper, That is true. But many of those numerous cases contingent on the UK’s EU membership must have already been sorted out within the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018. For example, where an EU law (Regulation, Decision, etc) refers to an EU institution then a substitution will have been necessary, otherwise the “new” law (ie the patriated law) would be left hanging. And agreements on mundane matters like double taxation are fine, but EU specific agreements (eg: EAW, CFP, CU, Galileo, etc) are not.

          My argument since 2003 has been to walk away – not to ignore the EU totally, but to do the job of leaving without asking the EU’s permission. The reason for that stance was the 30 year rule release of the 1972 papers detailing the Heath government’s capitulations. It was obvious to me that neither our own establishment, nor the EU could be trusted. Unilaterally abrogating the treaties would cause us dislocations – true; but much less harm than being a supplicant to the EU. I think events have proved me right.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

            Nick,

            I can’t seriously comment on North Korea and ibertarian does not care if I am OK or not, so there is really nothing to answer and no source necessary about Mrs Merkel , so what are yo on about?

          • Denis Cooper
            Posted November 6, 2018 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

            Yes, but the UK legislation will only sort it out on the UK plane, not on the international plane where any necessary adjustments to agreements would have to be made with some form of consent between the parties, not unilaterally by the UK.

          • libertarian
            Posted November 7, 2018 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

            hans

            I really do care about you. You seem a very nice fellow

  24. Steve
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    Considering what’s at stake, having a PM / capitulator doing things behind our backs is not good. Dangerous in fact.

    I have no reason to doubt the latest reports that Theresa May has done a secret deal to keep the UK in the customs union, just to avoid a hard border with Ireland.

    Personally I don’t see a problem with NI. Why do we need a hard border ? If there is to be one let Varadkar build it. Up to him and his Brussels role models surely. If the EU thinks the border needs policing let them do it, and pay for it.

    This all proves in my mind that the border issue was all about keeping us in the customs union and therefore in the EU.

    Sorry, but no; this has done it for me. The cat is out of the bag and those in the conservative party should be hanging their heads in shame.

    It also proves that besides being not to be trusted, and having done more slithering about than a wet eel, anything Mrs May says must be taken as a lie.

    Voter’s trust in the tories has gone, it’s game over. They should not have ignored what we were telling them.

    I honestly don’t think that anything the tories do from now on will save them, it’s too late. We did not vote for ‘negotiations’ with the EU, we voted for a government to defend our sovereignty, if necessary by having the balls to go to Brussels and show we are not to be disrespected.

    Come next general election the tories will find out what vengeance is, even if they deliver the brexit we voted for. They’re toast.

    Should have got rid when we told you !

    • JoolsB
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

      Well said Steve.

    • Helen Smith
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

      Yes, it is my life’s work now to see May’s Tories destroyed, I’d vote for a party led by our host however.

      • Steve
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

        Helen Smith

        Yes I’d agree with that, but John Redwood is one of his kind. There are no others of his calibre and talents, or indeed dignity.

        Given the disturbing revelations during the last couple of years concerning those we elect in good faith, Mr Redwood could be forgiven for not wanting to touch the leadership with a bargepole.

        If he was leader, he’d have to sack most of the conservative party.

  25. Chris
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood, could you advise whether this is true? It is a comment from the Conshome website:
    “….And suitably emboldened by the collapse of the ERG and the admission of
    defeat by Davis and Johnson, Sunday newspapers are reporting that Mrs
    May intends to stay on until 2022 to fight the next election….”

    Other reports suggest that Tuesday is the crunch (where have we heard that before) and May will give her Cabinet an ultimatum to back her otherwise she will call an election. What a way to run a country. Utterly incompetent, but, far worse, utterly treacherous.

    Reply The ERG has never defined its mission as getting rid of Mrs May and it has not collapsed. The PM has to get Parliaments approval for an early election. I dont know Conservative MPs wanting that.

    • Chris
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Mr Redwood.

      I should make it absolutely clear that the comment I quoted above was from the Comments section of an article on Conshome, and not written by one of the authors of articles there.

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

      Reply to Reply:
      Is this not something of a diversionary answer? I take it she can still an election without prior consent. Labour will of course vote for one, how many Tories will vote against? Will you Mr Redwood?

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

      Whatever the polls say, she would be toast in any election. Just the fact of being stupid enough to call an election again a year after tossing the last one away condemns her.
      Nothing to lose by voting UKIP or Labour.

  26. Steve
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood

    As a rider to my previous comments, it’s ok for you to voice opinion that we should just leave, but to be fair it’s just words and the biggest threat of all time to this country’s sovereignty is still in office enjoying licence to do as she pleases and with no accountability to the voting majority whatsoever.

    Also; I disagree with your idea that it was sensible of the government to deny the latest revelations, actually I think it was typical.

  27. Charles v
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    For heaven’s sake stop playing to your regular audience.

    There is a swathe of opinion that is willing to accept the result of the referendum but wants an orderly exit and needs to be convinced that the terms of our future trading relationship will not tank the economy. However, much you say it, we simply do not buy your no deal will be fine line. You are convincing no one who doesn’t already share your views.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      Charles v

      “There is a swathe of opinion that is willing to accept the result of the referendum but wants an orderly exit and needs to be convinced that the terms of our future trading relationship will not tank the economy.”

      where is this opinion ? not with those who want out of the EU, it is with big business and those who wish to see the UK subservient.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

      What now seems a long time ago some MP thought it clever to press Theresa May to agree that no deal would be better than a bad deal, without stopping to define what he meant by “deal” and “no deal”, let alone “bad deal”.

      I can’t remember who it was, and it doesn’t really matter, but the problem now is that there is no distinction made between walking away from negotiations with no agreement on anything at all, on the one hand, and completing the negotiations for an orderly withdrawal but with no new special or preferential trade deal to replace the current EU arrangements, just with defaulting to well-organised trade on the basis of the existing general WTO treaties, on the other hand.

      As far as the latter is concerned, I mentioned the other day that a study made for the German government forecast much smaller GDP losses for the UK than the studies made by and for the UK government and its various allies:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/30/easing-the-squeeze/#comment-969860

      “In the scenario where the U.K. and the EU fail to strike a trade deal and fall back on World Trade Organization rules, the study predicts the U.K. economy would lose 1.7 percent of economic output over the long-term, while German and EU GDP would be 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent below their previous pre-Brexit trajectories, respectively.”

      Not Philip Hammond’s “disastrous” 8% of GDP, but a very manageable 1.7% over the long term – similar to the recent forecasts from Open Europe:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/28/yes-chancellor-we-coukd-afford-a-better-budget-if-we-leave-without-a-withdrawal-agreement/#comment-969556

      according to which the deficiency might be only about 2% spread over 13 years, or with the correct government responses possibly only a quarter of that.

      And that is before taking into account the potential long term economic benefits to the UK from regulations which are better designed than the EU laws.

    • Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

      No, Charles v. In your narrow little Facebook world there may be that ”swathe of opinion”. However, out here in the wide world there are many people who realise that trade is only a small part of leaving the EU’s control. We wish to be rid of EU shackles – let’s say ”sovereignty” and ”immigration” are just two examples.
      Many of us realise that trade will carry on regardless, and find its own levels – but freedom from EU controls is all in all.

  28. Nigel Seymour
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

    So who denied it then??

  29. Mark B
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

    Agreed. We should settle our affairs and only sign a withdrawal agreement if it honours the Referendum vote.

    Sadly I do not see it happening.

  30. Gary C
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    This can only go two ways:

    A . . . . . We walk and refuse to pay the ransom money where there’s a chance the Conservative party will survive despite them loosing the confidence of many of their voters.

    B . . . . . We have some sort of fudge where we pay the 39 billion, destroying democracy along with the Conservative party for many years to come.

    And yes TM should have been removed some time ago.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

      Gary C

      Your option A is obviously the better. However I don’t see the conservatives surviving anyway.

      Even if they get rid of May immediately, the public is so justifiably enraged that come next election there will be a big fat FU.

      A party of MP’s i.e. public servants, who don’t do as the public says is a bad situation, and as events have shown, confirms most of them have as much dependability as a cardboard bath seat when it comes to standing up for this country.

      • Cerberus
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

        If a democratic vote is ignored then democracy is dead. We then enter a very exciting new phase for British politics when all bets are off. Politicians will have no democratic mandate and the public can therefore disregard any law that suits them.

  31. ian
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    If they cannot announce a full deal Brexit before Christmas recess in accordance with the Tory party manifesto, then they must announce they are leaving with no deal, If they let it run on into next year, the companies and the people will only see a failed government a failed cabinet and failed party, nobody wants any last minute deals that are no better than what is on the table now or an extension of article 50, parliament would just have to lump it, as for a meaningful vote, nobody in or out of parliament knows what that means, they have already had meaningful votes and on each vote have voted to leave the EU under article 50 on 29th March 2019.
    If 650 MPs in parliament think they did not get a meaningful vote, then let them take it court but in the meantime get on with an announcement before Christmas for companies and the people of a clear direction.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

      ian

      “If they cannot announce a full deal Brexit before Christmas recess”

      What ?

      You’re telling me these jokers think they’re entitled to a Christmas break ?

      They should be locked in and given their liberty when, only when, they demonstrate some collective patriotism.

      • Gary C
        Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

        “They should be locked in and given their liberty when, only when, they demonstrate some collective patriotism.”

        Unfortunately that would take some intelligence, (the very stuff the remainers accuse us of lacking).

        My point is what do they think is good about wishing to destroy the country and being cuckold to the EU, do they not think what it would mean to go grovelling to the likes of Tusk, Juncker, Selmayr, Barnier etc etc?

        Obviously not as they would rather stay in the EU even if it means ruining our once great country . . . . . . . . . But it doesn’t matter to them they will be part of the EU wave the blue flag and be triumphant in their own minds while suffering from bruised knees.

        Patriotism is not something they understand.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

          Gary C.

          Patriotism and membership of eh Eu are not contradictory as you state ate all

  32. The Prangwizard
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    Sunday Times ‘spin’ says May has obtained ‘concessions’ from the EU to keep the whole of the UK in a customs union to solve the so called Irish border problem. That is not a concession in my book, that is more treachery and capitulation from May. A gross distortion of language, treating people with contempt. There’s almost no point in hoping Tory MPs will find some courage to act to get rid of May. And fine words of criticism are just swatted aside; she knows her opponents will do absolutely nothing while her betrayal moves on apace.

  33. rose
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    Bravo!

  34. Posted November 4, 2018 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    What versions May I ask please. Can you be more specific John?

  35. Adam
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    Theresa May & others should have known that from the outset, & could have avoided wasting so much time.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

      Adam

      They should have known we meant it when we said out.

  36. Chris
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

    I see it reported in the Mail that some Brexiters will be removed from Cabinet in order to strengthen May’s position till at least 2021. Apparently Leadsom and McVey were proving troublesome with threats to resign:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6350279/The-Prime-Minister-lining-sweeping-pre-Christmas-Cabinet-shuffle.html
    “Those who would be in line for the chop include Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom, Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and Transport Secretary Chris Grayling; those tipped for promotion include Home Office Minister Victoria Atkins and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox. Well-placed sources also tip Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab to replace Philip Hammond as Chancellor”.

  37. VotedOut
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    Quite right.

    At the end of March we will have fulfilled the obligations in Article-50. Neither side is supposed to do anything to damage the other which is why I think the PM should be given ‘some’ latitude.

    To walk away at the start may have caused issues. To do so now makes so much more sense.

    Its down to our MP’s to deliver what was promised when they are to vote on all this. Should be simple…

  38. hans christian ivers
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    John,

    As long as negotiations are still going on, we have to reserve the right to wait and see.

    With the sort of prediction you have just made, you are no better than the experts you criticised earlier today, that makes you look rather funny to say the least.

    Reply This piece doesn’t make a prediction!

    • NickC
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

      Hans, Have you ever thought of ceasing your ad hominem attacks, and instead actually defending your rotten EU ideology (if you can)?

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 9:18 am | Permalink

        Nick C.

        What is the definition of an ideology, my dear chap?

        • Nick Martinek
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

          Hans

          Ideology: “A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy.” – Oxford English dictionary. Even you are capable of looking that up.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

            NIck Martinek,

            I was trying to help NIck C because he obviously does not know the right definition, so thank you

    • libertarian
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

      hans

      I’m beginning to worry about you. Are you sure you’re ok? You seem to have lost the ability to read

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 9:19 am | Permalink

        Libertarian,

        But you have fortunately not lost the ability to lecture even more

  39. Steve
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    All they had to do was get rid of one person.

    Now they’re toast and it serves ’em bloody well right !

  40. Roy Grainger
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    But we know why the government have denied it, it is because they want the sell out delayed till the last possible minute so enough MPs are too scared to vote against it.

  41. A.Sedgwick
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    There has to be a leadership contest, this situation has gone beyond farce.

  42. heavenSent
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    JR- you argue like a child who’s about to have his lollipop taken away…There will be no Brexit as you have in your mind- get it? What you are dreaming about is not achievable..it’s just not there anymore..there is no merchant navy left worth talking about..the Empire has gone..and the Commonwealth there only in name..so where are we going to find these new free trade you talk about..it won’t be with EU countries unless we conclude our divorce agreement in an orderly manner.. something you are still calling out against in your childish manner..it’s no wonder you are on the back benches still along with the other mutton heads JRM minister for the 18th century and fly boy, anything goes so long as it gets me there, Boris and of course the deluded Bill Cash and IDS. Losers all

    Reply Why do you bother to make these abusive remarks about us if we are of so little consequence?

    • Edward2
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

      is that you andy?

    • libertarian
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

      heaven sent

      Ha ha ha , I love Remainers that wander on here, spout abuse at all and sundry then prove they are totally ignorant, brainless and without any knowledge what so ever. Keep posting this drivel please it means your side will never win

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 9:21 am | Permalink

        Libertarian,

        How very sad can’t you write something new instead of all your prejudices?

        • Nick Martinek
          Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

          Hans, How very sad you can’t write anything germane to the subject?

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

            Nick Martinek

            But I do not have debate at this level ,it is a waste of my time

          • Edward2
            Posted November 6, 2018 at 12:11 am | Permalink

            Well stop posting ten times a day then hans.

          • libertarian
            Posted November 7, 2018 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

            hans

            You dont debate, you pontificate

  43. nothappy
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    It will always be a bad deal because you are not getting your cherry picking way..and never will..the days of British gunboat diplomacy are well and truely over..welcome to the 21st century..there you see and I havn’t even mentioned the 39Bl word

    Reply I have always said just leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement is fine

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      On a strict reading of Article 50 there should only be one withdrawal agreement:

      http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

      “In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.”

      It says “an agreement”, singular, “setting out the arrangements”, plural, “for its withdrawal”; no doubt if it suited the EU better its lawyers could invent arguments that such wording was never intended to exclude multiple separate agreements on a wide range of issues and did not do so, however it would more likely suit the EU to say that under the treaty there must be a single portmanteau agreement for all aspects of the withdrawal, and hence ” no withdrawal agreement” must mean no agreement at all on anything at all – so a disorderly withdrawal, legal chaos.

    • Anonymous
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

      It’s Remainers who are trying to cherry pick. Leavers just want to leave.

    • Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

      This ‘nothappy’ is a remainer. You can tell by the thinly-veiled insults (they seem to be), no constructive argument, no valid and clear points to make.
      Perhaps he/she/it might like to tell us what, exactly, it’s on about, and perhaps try a little harder with the punctuation.

    • Steve
      Posted November 4, 2018 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      Nothappy.

      “British gunboat diplomacy”

      So what do you call the EU’s way of doing things then ? The Greeks and Italians would rightly call it fascist.

      I call it an example of ungrateful Belgian walloons and their French sidekicks setting themselves up as some kind of benelux version of the East India Trading Company.

      We are not cherry picking either, in case you haven’t understood; we voted to leave, walk away, get out…..we don’t want anything to do with the EU and we’re quite prepared to roll our sleeves up and graft our way to rebuilding the country.

  44. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    Much more of this and I’ll be going up the wall … two MPs who should know better write to the Sunday Telegraph as follows:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/11/04/lettersa-canada-style-deal-eu-should-britains-goal-one-way/

    “We come from different sides of the political spectrum, but both believe our country’s long-term interests are best served by leaving the EU. We also agree that a Canada-style deal should be our goal. We want a mutually beneficial relationship with the EU, with a free trade arrangement that delivers prosperity and lets us make our own laws, control our borders and strike deals around the world.”

    I wonder when people are going to grasp that if the geography was different and instead of the province of Northern Ireland it was one of the provinces of Canada which abutted the Irish Republic, and if the Irish government was adamantly refusing to tolerate:

    “anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland”,

    as it is now then there would be the same kind of problem as now, because its current free trade agreement with the EU does not put Canada in either a customs union, or a single market, with the Irish Republic and the rest of the EU.

  45. Largehosier
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    Twitter group #StandUp4Brexit

    has 51 M.P. pledges to stand up for brexit and chuck chequers.

    David Davies tweets today “what on earth are we waiting for..”

    Are there any circumstances in which Sir Graham Brady the chairman of the 1922 committee would NOT acknowledge 48 letters of no confidence in Mrs May??????

  46. Alan Joyce
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

    Dear Mr. Redwood,

    I am quite astonished at the way in which conservative mp’s are being railroaded, some seemingly quite willingly, into supporting the Prime Minister’s shifty and underhanded machinations.

    At this rate the conservatives new moniker will be the ‘nasty and not to be trusted’ party.

    Alan Joyce

    Reply I am not being railroaded and have made clear my disagreement with Chewuers

    • Alan Joyce
      Posted November 5, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

      Dear Mr. Redwood,

      Reply to Reply.

      I think the Prime Minister is trying to bounce her ministers and backbench mp’s into supporting her backroom deals. It’s a case of my way or the highway.

      However, I did not have you in mind or, indeed, several others when I said that mp’s were being railroaded into supporting her. Usually, when lumping mp’s together as a group I add ‘with notable exceptions’. A casual check back on my previous posts will confirm this.

      I read your blog on a daily basis and have followed your interventions in the House. I note the consistency of your position.

  47. ian
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    Steve, I don’t know what you mean, they turn up on Wednesday for PMQ the rest of the time, most MPs out running their own businesses, or working for a company in some capacity.

    I have never voted and never will, that’s what I think of them, complete crap and always have done, Brexit about the democracy of the people and free choice of the people and nothing else, I have always known that there is no democracy in this country even if you get full Brexit because it would have been their choice and not yours.

    Staying in a CU after 2021 will cost you 16 plus billion a year not 12 billion a year as now, that on top of the 30 odd billion, all down to the next election by the look of it then, for you and other voters, the result will be usual one where voters couldn’t vote their way out of a wet paper bag leaving the elite, companies and the EU in charge of your country and taxes.

    Reply I am on call seven days a week, deal with emails and constituency cases seven days a week, and attend Parliament for much more than PMQs. Most MPs work hard and flexibly to do the job, including week ends.

  48. Peter D Gardner
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    Would someone please explain why the prospect of Mrs May getting the EU’s agreement to the whole of UK remaining in the customs union with the EU is considered as a ‘breakthrough’ f0r UK.

    Does anyone inWestminster realise that if Mrs May’s Chequers — deal goes through, the supreme government of UK will be theEuropean Council, in which it will not be represented but among whose members, lording it over UK will be Leo Varadkar. And they wonder why he is being so awkward over the border. it is God’s gift to him enabling the Irish to gain ascendancy over the Brits at long, long last.

  49. Miss MBJ
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    You have been accused of being a disaster capitalist and stand to make money out of taking us out without a deal.

  50. Rien Huizer
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    The most likely deal is one where you would be able to conclude an FTA with the US (possibly even join NAFTA without losing access to the EU (assuming the EU will want to trade some financial services access for fisheries). Btw: the newest large UK flagged trawler was built in Norway for a UK but Dutch/Icelandic owned company called UK fisheries. Companies are confident that brexit will make little change in their operating opportunities, assuming access to the EU for their products.
    The markets are not confient that a deal will be done but they have become a little more positive about Sterling.
    All in all, with the most damaging form of Brexit a little less likely and US association not necessarily impossible as a consequence of that deal, you are almost where you wanted to be in your 2001 book. Not too bad, I guess.

  51. Andy
    Posted November 4, 2018 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Whatever Mrs May agrees it will be worse than the status quo.

    It will be Brexit. It will be what you all voted for.

    We told you it was a turkey. Turns out we were right.

    Happy Christmas turkeys.

    • Jiminyjim
      Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      JR, please stop this drivel being repeated time after time on YOUR site. As Andy and you know full well, this is NOT what anyone voted for. Your lack of action in deleting his contributions simply makes it look like you agree with him. It’s uninformed garbage and it’s offensive

      Reply I publish many and varied opinions. I disagree with many of them, and state my own opinion clearly as the lead item each day.

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted November 5, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

      Andy

      Do not usually make comment on your posts, but perhaps it may have escaped your memory that Brexit is being negotiated by a majority of Remainers in Cabinet, that is why it appears so dire, they all want to keep us shackled to the EU, no matter what the cost to the Country or democracy.

      In addition Mrs May seems to think of EU politicians as her friends, of whom many will not be around in 5 years time, because their own Countries will have voted them out for being absolutely useless.!

      Who wants so called friends who simply want to screw you over financially, and at the same time control your life.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 5, 2018 at 10:03 am | Permalink

      Andy

      Anyone who tries to maintain the “Status Quo” ( unless you are Francis Rossi !) in business, politics or indeed any field Is in for a massive disappointment.

      Change happens and it happens quickly these days. If you dont adapt you die.

      I really am hoping we get what we voted for. WTO please

      You can’t be right about something that hasn’t happened you donut

      If you want to live in France I’d move quickly if I were you.

    • Nick Martinek
      Posted November 5, 2018 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

      Andy,

      Whatever Mrs May agrees it will be worse than Leave.

      It will be Bremain. It will be what all you Remains voted for.

      We told you it was a turkey. Turns out we were right.

      Happy Christmas turkeys.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted November 5, 2018 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

        NIck Nartinek

        Comment without a source or back up to support your argument

        • Edward2
          Posted November 6, 2018 at 12:10 am | Permalink

          You rarely quote sources yourself hans.
          Is no one entitled to an opinion?

  52. Dave Clemo
    Posted November 5, 2018 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    The ‘deal’ that is being leaked is not Brexit.
    We should be shouting from the rooftops that it’s not Remain either.
    The Remainers voted for the UK to stay in the EU AS IT WAS.
    What the deal proposes is something different. We would no longer be a full member but an ‘associate’, subject to all the rules and regs, yet having no say in the EU, not now, not ever.

    Is that what they voted for?

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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