The great opportunities from leaving with no Withdrawal sell out

I have often set out the advantages of just leaving next March, here and on the media. I have just sent a pamphlet making this case off to a possible publisher.I am urging like minded MPs to help make the case for the WTO exit.

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57 Comments

  1. cornishstu
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Leaving on WTO terms was only ever going to be the most realistic option. It is quite obvious for the EU to give us a FTA they would be underminding ‘Le grand project’. It just wasn’t going to happen. That should have been the first question at the begining of the so called negotiations, will you give us a FTA yes or no. On receiving the reply ‘Non’ we should have replied no problem we are going anyway. Unfortunately we have a predominately remain government who have schemed to undermine the democratic will of the people as I have said before if there was the politcal will to leave we would be out already. The advantages of being free of the EU far out weigh anything they have to offer.

    • cornishstu
      Posted November 24, 2018 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

      ‘they would be undermining’

      • Hope
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        We were told the 21 month transition was to implement the trade deal. This is not going to happen because May failed to get one, therefore no transition or punishment extension needed or required. May has failed to achieve a trade deal to sign in a nano second after we leave at 11 pm on 29/03/2019.

        Therefore we leave and discuss a trade deal as a self governing sovereign nation without a gun to our head. What does May not understand?

        The UK does not have to be a vassal state for an unlimited period of years to discuss trade.

    • margaret howard
      Posted November 24, 2018 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

      cornish

      Nearly half voted Remain. Their votes will have to be considered. So will the 2 parts of three of Britain, Scotland and NIreland who voted resoundingly for Remain. Do you want this country reduced to a rump if they leave and join the EU as independent nations?

      Considering how much blood has been shed in the past to keep this country united your ‘leave at any cost’ will undo all.

      And if we treat our 5 decade long EU membership with such contempt why should any other future trading partner trust us not to do the same to them in the future whenever it suits us?

      Perfidious Albion?

      • oldwulf
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 10:08 am | Permalink

        Margaret

        UK Parliamentary democracy involves a first past the post system. There is a winner and there is a loser. If there is no winner, there is a coalition. Had less than half voted “Leave”, would the political establishment have come with some half baked scheme to accommodate the losing “leave” voters. I think not.

        Personally, I would wish Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to remain part of the UK, but that is a matter for them.

      • Know-Dice
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink

        Margaret,

        What about if the vote had gone in the other direction, i.e. Remain won by a small margin would you have given “consideration” to those that voted leave.?

        To quote Andy “I don’t think so”…

        Scotland had a “once in a generation” vote on independence and decided to stay in the Union and it’s also up to the people of Northern Ireland as to whether they wish to stay with the rest of the UK.

        The Referendum was a national vote not a constituency or regional vote, the UK voted Leave and it’s about time that you got on board with that.

      • Jagman84
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 11:39 am | Permalink

        “Perfidious Albion?”

        An apt summary of Theresa May and her Government and their disdain for our democracy. Anyone who attempts to lock us into such a one-sided agreement is either a fool or a traitor. I will be generous and suggest that it is the former.

        • cornishstu
          Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

          jagman you beat me to it, though I would have been less generous. I would also add that had the result been in remains favour, leavers would not have been given a second thought and government would have seen the result as a green light to all that is EU

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 26, 2018 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

          Very generous indeed to Theresa May.

      • libertarian
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

        Margaret howard

        Your post doesn’t make any sense in the context of what is being said here.

        Under EU rules we have agreed to leave the EU. When we do that we become a third country, just like the other 160 other countries that aren’t members of the EU. We carry on trading as we always have under the rules pertaining to the markets we trade with. Er thats it.

        Longer term the eu has been trying to negotiate free trade deals with its biggest markets for more than 10 years now. Once we leave the UK becomes the EU second largest export market after USA. They can then enter negotiations to talk about a trade deal .

        Just to put this in perspective

        Less than 8% of UK companies export anywhere and less than 6% to the EU

        They are the only people who may have some impact , whether they voted to remain or leave.

        We ALREADY had to do the dirty on other trading partners in order to join the EU. You didn’t moan about that then

        The EU is a political enterprise trying to usurp democratic control. If you want to live under a tyranny thats your choice. The majority of us dont though

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

        So you think the other half must be considered in a general election too do you? Good luck with that. Just because you are a remainer it doesn’t make you a special case. You lost the vote so respect it.

  2. Peter
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    The problem is Remain have successfully planted the idea that WTO would be a disaster – a cliff edge that will lead to chaos.

    This is now taken as fact in the media. ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ has been quietly dropped.

  3. Brigham
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Pamphlets will do no good. May has got to go. She has to be replaced by an exiteer, and quickly.

    • Ron Olden
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:47 am | Permalink

      Simply replacing Mrs May is beside the point. The arithmetic in the House of Commons is the source of the problem.

      A sizeable majority of MPs were pro Remain and an even bigger majority of them are against Leaving without a deal. So it’s impossible to install a Prime Minister and Government which is willing to do so.

      If the House insists there has to be a deal they have no choice but to accept whatever ‘s on offer.

  4. Peter
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    Meanwhile The Telegraph reports a secret Cabinet/EU plan B for when the Withdrawal Bill is rejected.

    As Mrs. May has publicly stated there is no plan B, it is most likely such a plan has already been put in place.

    • Nigl
      Posted November 24, 2018 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

      Indeed. It is the Norway option that we didn’t vote for. When asked what it meant for them a Norwegian colleague said that every time the E.U. ran a flag up, the Norwegians saluted.

      Ps any more MPs being bought off with knighthoods etc?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        Once again the two facts that:

        a) Norway is not in any customs union with the EU, and

        b) A year ago the Irish government categorically rejected the idea of even a “light touch” customs border like that between Norway and Sweden:

        https://news.sky.com/video/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-solution-for-ireland-11141058

        are being totally disregarded.

        Of course if the EU and the Irish government could be persuaded to agree to some other legal and practical solution to the fictitious problem of the Irish border then that objection to putting the UK into the same status as Norway could be overcome, likewise the same objection to a Canada-style FTA.

        http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/22/is-that-it-the-political-declaration-with-the-eu/#comment-975645

        “Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has finally admitted in the Irish Parliament that although trapping the UK under the rules of the EU Customs Union and the EU Single Market in perpetuity would be his preferred route to keep the land border completely open there could be other ways, which would have to put into effect in a hurry in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement … ”

        But Theresa May is happy to use the Irish border “problem” as a pretext to keep us under the economic control of the EU as far as possible.

    • javelin
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:03 am | Permalink

      If Theresa can’t be bothered to create contingency plan it shows she should not be planning anything of any consequence to anybody other than herself.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:29 am | Permalink

      Plan B is surely the resignation of appallingly misguided, electoral liabilities and essentially socialists May and Hammond, a WTO Brexit. lower simpler taxes, cheaper energy and a bonfire of red tape. What is not to like.

      Or the retention of them, the splitting of the Tory vote with UKIP and total economic lunacy from Corbyn/McDonnall/SNP – a trip to Venezuela and a compete disaster.

    • Ron Olden
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:58 am | Permalink

      I think what Mrs May means by ‘there being no ‘Plan B”, is that she and the EU don’t have a Selection Box of alternative Withdrawal Agreements on hand to put to the House of Commons until the varying competing interests there, see one that takes their fancy.

      If the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected we Leave on March 29th 2019 with No Agreement. Any ‘Plan B’ beyond that, i.e. staying in, or extending Membership would require the consent of the House, and possibly even Primary Legislation.

      If they tried that, the Government would fall and there’d be a General Election. Although what good would come of it is anyone’s guess.

      • Peter
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

        What happens when/if the Withdrawal Bill is rejected has been the subject of much speculation.

        It must be rejected first though. That is not a given.

        I think a step by step approach is sensible. Concentrate on killing the Bill first.

        Plan Bs could and should be under consideration – but Brexit-minded people do not need the distraction at this time before an important vote.

        They should of course continue to brief against the Withdrawal Bill with a separate narrative for Leavers and Remainers. This would mirror then the government modus operandi – but hopefully without the blatant lies.

    • Chris
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

      Yes, we have got rather used to adjusting for her lies.

  5. Alison
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    Just what is desperately needed. Earliest details of where we can obtain copies would be much appreciated.

  6. ChrisS
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    As Peter has pointed out, the Remainer establishment has won a considerable victory in ensuring that leaving on WTO terms is understood in the mind of voters as “No Deal” or a “Cliff Edge”. They have effectively ensured that it won’t be allowed to get through parliament.

    At best you can fight a rearguard action to try and bring it back as an option but I fear there might now be insufficient supporters to make that a possibility.

    In any event you will get nowhere while May remains in Downing Street. She has to be replaced with a Brexiteer who must appoint a like minded Brexit Secretary and a Chief Negotiator. appointed.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

      It could have been very different if the Tory party had chosen a competent leader who actually believed in Brexit. For a start, the Chancellor would not have been allowed to carry on inventing and leaking doomladen “no deal” forecasts, and at some point a copy of Michel Barnier’s own 2012 report on the mere 2% of GDP benefit of the EU Single Market could have been put under his nose. Instead the Tory party turned to somebody who has turned out to be a liar, a cheat, a hypocrite and a traitor.

  7. Al
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    WTO seems to be a popular topic. I was just sent a link to this parliamentary petition to exit on WTO terms:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/221747

    It is open until 14th December for more signatures, but has over 50,000 already.

    • Chris
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

      We have just signed. Thanks Al.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:44 pm | Permalink

      A1

      Thanks, signed

  8. Peter D Gardner
    Posted November 24, 2018 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Bravo. I urge you to make a soft copy available for download.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

      And viral distribution via social media

  9. VotedOut
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    The case for a clean Brexit needs every bit of publicity.

    I applaud your efforts and appreciate what must be a very tiring exercise.

  10. Steve P
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    The electorate voted to leave and it should have happened by now. To not leave the EU in its entirety as we voted is failing to act in the best interest of the electorate. Failure by British politicians to implement the referendum result fits well inside the definition of treachery.

  11. The Quiet Man
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:13 am | Permalink

    More treachery by your leader …
    Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced Saturday that Madrid would support the Brexit divorce deal after the UK and the EU agreed to give Spain a say in the future of the disputed British territory of Gibraltar, which lies at the southern tip of the Mediterranean nation.

  12. Mark
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:15 am | Permalink

    Re-reading the EEA Agreement, to which we are still party and from which we have not given notice to resign, it seems to me that a deal with no agreement in place with the EU is actually WTO+, since we would be free of obligations under the agreement that apply to EFTA States and EU Members, such as freedom of movement, yet we are entitled as a Contracting Party to free trade with no duties or quotas and with expedited customs clearance.

    Indeed, many of the provisions of May’s agreement are odious to the terms of the EEA Agreement. That alone provides grounds for throwing them out, at least until we withdraw from the EEA formally. It should be noted that although the EEA Agreement confines territorial extent of its application, much of the planned mistreatment is of British interests in EU territory, which therefore remain subject to it: the advice that Article 2 terminates the UK’s interest is patently wrong.

    • acorn
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 8:52 am | Permalink

      “Contrary to what is sometimes said, the UK could not « remain » a member State of the EEA after Brexit, because it will automatically[2] cease to be an EEA member when leaving the EU.

      Article 126(1) EEA[3] states that « The Agreement shall apply to the territories which the Treaty establishing the EEC (today the EU) is applied (…) and to the territories of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein and the Kingdom of Norway ». These three States are members of EFTA and, in accordance with articles 108(1) and (2) of the EEA Agreement, have established the EFTA Surveillance Authority and the EFTA Court (« Agreement between the EFTA States on the establishment of a Surveillance Authority and a Court of Justice », below « EFTA Agreement »). Both these institutions are only competent for these three States. Their role is to ensure the fulfillment by the EEA EFTA States of their obligations under the EEA Agreement. They are not competent for Switzerland, despite this country being a member of EFTA.

      Neither the EU, nor its current 28 member States, are members of EFTA. After Brexit, the UK, not being a member of EFTA, and not anymore an EU member, could not be an EEA member and could not be a candidate to become one.”
      (Jean-Claude Piris: Legal Counsel for negotiations of EU Treaties from Maastricht to Lisbon.)

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

      What about Article 126?

      http://www.efta.int/media/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main%20Text%20of%20the%20Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf

      “The Agreement shall apply to the territories to which the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community (20) is applied and under the conditions laid down in that Treaty (21), and to the territories of Iceland (22), the Principality of Liechtenstein and the Kingdom of Norway ( 23).”

      The footnotes update the terminology, but the basic fact is that once the UK is no longer in the EU the EEA Agreement also ceases to apply, with or without any formal act of withdrawal.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted November 25, 2018 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

        http://www.efta.int/faq

        “Is it possible to become a party to the EEA Agreement without being a member of the EU or EFTA?”

        “Article 126 of the Agreement on the EEA makes it clear that the EEA Agreement only applies to the territories of the EU, in addition to Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. Under the present wording of the EEA Agreement, it is therefore impossible to be a party to the EEA Agreement without being a member of either the EU or EFTA.”

      • Mark
        Posted November 26, 2018 at 12:22 am | Permalink

        Art 126 deals with the TERRITORY in which the agreement applies. That means that e.g. the UK would not be bound not to charge duties on imports from the EEA countries, but the EEA countries are still bound not to do so for imports from the UK: the charge occurs in territory covered by the agreement, and the UK is still a Contracting Party.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted November 26, 2018 at 7:50 am | Permalink

          Is there anything in the Agreement, as it presently stands, which would allow the other parties to simply carry on treating the UK as being part of the EEA, even though under Article 126 the provisions of the EEA Agreement no longer applied to its territory? I don’t think so.

  13. Captain Peacock
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:48 am | Permalink

    Mays betrayal of Norther Ireland and now Gibraltar is unforgivable.
    Its seems the EU are dictating the terms and no matter what they say she agrees.
    Maggie went to war to keep the sovereignty of the Falklands but May betraying these people in Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.

  14. Mark
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 2:18 am | Permalink

    May has no need to sell out Gibraltar if only Spain objects: a withdrawal agreement does not need unanimity, only a QMV approval in EU Council.

    That she is seeking unanimity in Council and not asking for the approval of Europarl tells us this is an agreement to remain under 50 (3). That is not what we voted for, either in the referendum or the last general election.

  15. ian
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 2:19 am | Permalink

    Don’t waste your money, most voters are totally switched off and couldn’t tell you what is happening or whether its a good deal or not, they have no interest in the arguments and are not listening to the news, as far as they are concerned, they have had their vote on the matter and are only interested in the final result.
    They don’t read newspapers online or offline and do not bother with TV news, they are totally devoid of the whole subject, they know it a lot of BS and are not interested, I brought the subject at dinner tonight and it lasted about 3 or 4 minutes before it was buried by the family of 7.

    • Adam
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

      ian:

      A pamphlet has potential to reach & inform millions of people.
      A family of 7 opining is worth hearing yet inadequate to block anyone’s better judgement.

  16. javelin
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:01 am | Permalink

    David Cameron and Theresa May have both discovered that the EU politicans consider “The Project” of a United States of Europe to be of such great importance that they are willing to harm themselves to achieve it.

    The gamble was that unification would create a centrist Government. Unfortunately the EU has not taken into account that the act of compression creates a majority of populist voters before fusion can take place.

  17. Duyfken
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    I hope your pamphlet may be made available on-line please.

  18. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    I wish there were more politicians like you John.

  19. Frank
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    It’s much too late for pamphlets now, they should have been made available before we had the vote.

  20. A.Sedgwick
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    Brexit is worse than Iraq, May’s Blair disaster. She is creating not only a “nasty party” but one that is politically dishonest and politically corrupt.

    Unfortunately there are too many CP MPs who cannot or choose not to see her delusions.

  21. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    Well done Mr Redwood

    This is the kind of initiative that your group should have been pursing since at least chequers but probably since March 2017. We have been losing the hearts and minds war for too long. Your and others’ appearances in the media are very informative but always countered by a “land of milk and honey” contributor immediately after saying that your simple solution is not so simple.

    A well drafted (concise) leaflet will give less loquacious supported ammunition as well as disseminating the message.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

      Supporters

  22. Iain Moore
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    This latest part of the ‘negotiation’ has taken place between May and the EU and nobody else. Neither the Cabinet nor Parliament has had any input in what May is giving away. This not a way to run a country.

  23. ian
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    You should be stepping down from the party with others till Mrs May agrees to leaves office and rejoin the party for a leadership election with only Brexiteers standing, at least all labour member will vote the bill down and the bill would be defeated by two hundred votes, if they think there could be a no confidence vote in the new year, that leaves Mrs May and the party to reconsider their position over the Christmas break between a leadership election or a general election but whatever way it goes the withdrawal bill will be defeated and the civil service will be running around getting everything ready for a no deal Brexit as quick as they can.
    Brexiteers could hold the balance of power in a new parliament in April 2019 with the DUP, a fewer UKIP from the north with independent MPs of which there are 9 in parliament at the moment, you could call it the UK unionist association, with no whip, just a supply of confidence to labour under your control or the con party, like the holding power in 2010 by the Lib Dems with only 60 MPs, labour could win but you might think, 5 years of labour is better than a lifetime with the EU.
    Your area door knockers and helpers might want to stay with you rather than going with a new person from head office and rename their building the UK unionist association or something else, it could be same for other Brexiteers, but whatever way it goes the bill will be defeated and a good chance the Brexiteers will be calling the shots, either way, that’s what you call taking back control of your borders, laws and treasury/

    Reply If you resign the whip you cannot unilaterally rejoin it

  24. ian
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    That would wipe the smiles right off of their faces and May will be gone before you can say hello, if not you will be in line to hold the balance of power in parliament. It is not over till the fat lady sings, action speaks louder than words, to the end.

  25. Chris
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    Without wishing to be impolite, Mr Redwood, this leaflet should have been in the toolbox a long time ago. I fear it is very late, and it seems the momentum of May’s draft being accepted by the EU, and the compliant media hailing this as a triumph, are part of the steamrollering of the electorate by May’s political machine. There is a ghastly air of inevitability about it. Only radical action will stop it.

    However, some sacrifices by Brexiter MPs will have to be made. The particular “sacrifice” in this case is for Brexiter MPs to UNITE for once, and be prepared to act for their country instead of preserving their Party (it is beyond hope anyway with May as leader). Cease the petty bickering immediately amongst the different power bases/factions and ACT.

  26. Fairweather
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    Dear John,
    Yes please
    Can we have access to the leaflets?
    We can use them in Cornwall
    I believe that 5 of our MPs in Cornwall have not stated they will vote against the WB

  27. FranzB
    Posted November 25, 2018 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    WTO rules might be OK if only we could see some of those new super deals out there waiting for us- I’m sitting here on the shore with my spy glass but so far nothing

  28. Daphne Perridge
    Posted November 26, 2018 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    I agree that we should just leave.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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