Yesterday in the Urgent Question on the latest round of Project Fear Treasury forecasts I asked them to tell us what the growth rate was in the last 25 years before we joined the European Community, and what the growth rate has been in the last 25 years from 1992 when they established the full single market and customs union. It was obvious we grew faster outside the EU than in it, so the Treasury declined to share these actual historical figures.
As UK GDP data begins in 1948 I have now confirmed that between 1948 and 1972 when we joined the EC, growth amounted to 118%.
In the years from 1993 to 2017, following completion of the single market, growth was just 69%.
In other words, growth inside the EU was 41% lower than before we joined. So using the Treasury way of explaining these things, at today’s values the UK economy would be far better off in income and output terms than we are following time in the EU. They should adopt their own negative language and tell us just what a colossal loss of income and output this amounts to.
Those who support the EU will immediately say that the reason for the much slower growth in the EU is not to do with our membership. As soon as they accept this they must therefore acknowledge that the Treasury forecasts for the next fifteen years are wrong, as clearly a wide range of factors can affect economic out turns. Their protestations are, however, wild like their gloomy forecasts. It is the case that membership of the EEC led to a sharpened decline in much of our manufacturing in the early years when we took the hit of tariff free competition. It is also the case the European Exchange Rate Mechanism did great damage to jobs, output and incomes, at just the time when the EU completed its single market.
The Treasury forecasts of lower growth are likely to be well out, and their assumptions are not realistic for the WTO exit where they leave out most of the upside we would expect.
The Bank of England forecasts are just absurd. They assume a fall in output almost as large as all our exports to the EU! Even the Bank canāt think we would lose that much and canāt ignore all the import substitution we would do in such extreme and impossible circumstances. How else do they get to such a wildly high fall in output?
November 29, 2018
Good Morning Dr. Redwood,
This dishonesty, and the willingness on the part of senior politicians from the PM down, to obfuscate, miss-direct, and tell only partial truths is so damaging to democracy. It is simply not possible to believe any word uttered by our Prime Minister, nor that of most of those in her cabinet. Her performance yesterday, was a clear demonstration of this.
If we lose confidence in those who are supposed to govern, then we are headed for far worse than Brexit. Both main parties are equally bad.
November 29, 2018
p.s.
We now have the probability of members of the May cabinet being held in contempt of Parliament, for not releasing the full legal opinion on the Withdrawal Agreement. How dishonourable can ministers get?!
November 29, 2018
You make a fundamental point. We have government by catch phrase, endlessly repeated. It does not convince. Who is pulling the strings?
November 29, 2018
This article by an observer of the current political scene is worth reading.
Jonathan Clark: The price of Brexit In Name Only could be decades of bitter political division and upheaval | Conservative Home
November 30, 2018
As a history graduate, Mr Robbins should know that Unequal Treaties signed by China & Japan in the late 19th century became unenforceable in the early 20th century. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unequal_treaty
The only conclusion we can draw from the one-sided nature of the draft Surrender & Subordination Treaty is that May, the EU and the Irish government have all been sitting on the same side of the table. It brings international law into disrepute.
Policy-led ECJ judgements are increasingly ignored by the EU27.
The Establishment should stop digging.
November 29, 2018
Leadsom has finally lost the plot. She has supported May’s deal in a letter to her constituents. It is difficult how anyone from the leave debate could draw such an appalling conclusion and be such a hypocrite. Nevertheless, she is. I would advocate all south Northamptonshire voters to write to her association asking for her deselection as it appears she has lost leave of her senses, no values, beliefs or conviction in what she does other than self serving intentions.
Hammond’s association must dismiss him for bringing the Treasury, a national institution, into disprepute. It is no coincidence Carney has done the same at the BoE. the dishonesty to scare your own nation is breathtaking. Treachery in the extreme. All these forecasts based on a Withdrawal Agreement without a trade deal with the EU!
May has failed to get a trade deal to sign the moment we leave the EU as promised by her government! Now she is being allowed to say the EU will not agree a trade deal with a third country. The EU could and should comply with article 50 and negotiate before we leave and sign the moment we leave as first stated. Breathtaking dishonesty.
November 29, 2018
You have said exactly what I was thinking myself.
Mr Redwood has always struck me as decent and honourable man who wouldn’t think of telling a deliberate untruth. He is, unfortunately in a minority in that respect.
The deliberate and shameless lie has more the rule than the exception in politics, and as a result, democracy has almost ceased to exist, in its place is the manipulation of public opinion, the shameless lie, and a media which puts its own self interest far above any concept of journalistic integrity.
Recent examples are the dodgy dossier and the Iraq war; and the fabricated smears of President Trump, in which our shameless Government played no small part.
Globalist forces drive the EU and the opposition to Brexit, their lies drown out the quietly spoken truth.
November 29, 2018
Globalist forces drive EU, big business, financial markets and much of government policy around the world. Yes, it’s true. But that doesn’t make Brexit an answer. The UK response to globalist forces – let’s make ourselves poorer, less influential…and the globalist forces will just leave us alone, will they?
November 30, 2018
Simon Coleman
Lol… top analysis…. not .
Small businesses , you know the ones that actually creat most of the jobs and contribute most to the economy are quite happy to trade globally . Its where innovation, creativity and pressure to change on big corporates comes from.
However 94% of all businesses dont trade internationally at all currently. So 1 Brexit will NOT make us poorer in any way , shape or form 2. Brexit opens up opportunities for SMEs to cut back the huge , unnecessary regulatory burden and costs placed on them 3) By removing ourselves from the backward looking , anti new technology, protectionist EU we can also build more business .
By regaining control of our government we can also exercise more democratic control over those big businesses and big banks who are unduly influencing our lives. Diesel fuel polution and rubbish hoovers being just 2 of many many examples.
The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, its the 2nd most influential according to UN and we already have a seat on important global institutions in our own right.
Simon stop believing the guff you are served up by the EU and their courtesans
November 30, 2018
Look at this graph showing a drop in GDP after 1973 when we joined the EC (you have to follow the link as the graph won’t allow itself to be copied across)
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/the-end-of-britain-with-2nd-referendum-on-brexit/
Of course, these people are just brainwashed. They are completely ignorant of the fact that remaining in the EU will be the death of Britain. They listen to the likes of Tony Blair and other politicians who get huge pensions from the EU. These protesters are really too stupid to understand what they are protesting for and they are just pawns in a game for corrupt politicians.
The economic growth of Britain has steadily declined ever since joining the EU. We have provided this chart to the British press and politicians but not a single person has made this chart public. But worse still, Britain is resented in the EU because without Britain Europe would have been lost to both Hitler as well as Napoleon. Without Britain, Europe would never be free. Many resent that they owe everything to Britain.
All the history aside, any trade deal can only be subjected to a veto of 28 member states. Britain cannot reach a trade deal on its own terms with anyone for they can be stopped by the raising of just one hand. Britain will also see its financial market destroyed for Brussels wants to be able to outlaw short-selling to protect the Euro by decree when the free markets go against them. On top of that, the ECB has destroyed the European bond market and that is just starting to bubble to the surface as rates are rising in Southern Europe.
On top of that, Britain loses just about every court ruling in the European Court. And as for migrants, (. there have been many in the EU ed)
The British pound had really been just a unit-of-account prior to 1489. It was literally one pound of āsterlingā silver .925 fine. The first one-pound coin appeared in gold and was issued in 1489 by Henry VII. The risk that the British pound will no longer exit arrives in 2029.
November 29, 2018
Could not agree more now it looks like the sabre rattlers are putting the sabres back in scabbard as I suspect all the time. Never again can we trust a Tory government we may as well have Corbyn and his mob running the show because they are all as despicable as each other.
November 29, 2018
Like the dying days of the Soviet Union;as the Soviet Premier,Nikolai Ryzhkov,wrote of that period:
“We stole from ourselves,took and gave bribes,lied in the reports,in the newspapers,from high podiums,wallowed in our lies,hung medals on one another.And all of this-from top to bottom and bottom to top.”
The sooner someone takes a wrecking ball to the British Establishment the better.
November 30, 2018
Mitchel
Amen to hat
Removing ourselves from the corrupt EU is the first move, we then need to completely overhaul what laughingly passes for democracy in the UK
November 30, 2018
You do not need to take a wrecking ball or get ‘someone’ to do such for you. You can do it yourself and encourage others to do the same.
If you vote for the same, you will get the same. So why not try something different next time ?
November 29, 2018
IF? we lose confidence in those who are supposed to govern? As time goes on it seems none of us should have EVER had confidence in the vast majority of them. They only now seem to want to ensure they are ok – not the rest of the country.
John I see that after your recent comments about size of posts some are already back to very large posts plus links as well.
November 29, 2018
I agree. It has become obvious that the cunning plan (NOT so cunning) is to align us closely as to be in the EU in all but name and then take us back in in 2026 or whenever their 7 year budget cycle begins. May has already been signing us up to military Kit Kat stuff behind the scenes and the international UN migration agreement without any Parliamentary debate and NOT with the agreement of the people who are all opposed. Making illegal immigrants legal!
It is now obvious to the average Jill and Joe that May and your Government are the EU’s representatives in the UK and not the other way around. They have negotiated this withdrawal agreement on the same side of the table.
There will be pay back at the polls and the legacies will never be trusted again.
November 29, 2018
Well how can we have confidence in those who govern us? They just lie, lie and lie again. Cameron claimed to be a “low tax at heart Conservative” and a EUROSceptic but was the complete reverse. Major did not even have the decency to apologise for his entirely predictable ERM disaster. Theresa May lies almost every time she opens her robotic mouth. Either she says something so obvious as to be not worth saying or she lies – this seems to be her mode. Soon, if she is not stopped, she will offer us a referendum of a binary choice between her appalling (worse than remain) deal or remain at this rate. She must go now before she buries the Tories and gives us Corbyn.
All save a handful of MPs voted (ten years back) for the economic disaster (and scientifically illiterate) climate change act. How can anyone but a fool have any confidence in such dopes, frauds, career politicians, politics of envy pushers and virtue signaling liars?
November 29, 2018
Peter Wood
“This dishonesty, and the willingness on the part of senior politicians from the PM down, to obfuscate, miss-direct, and tell only partial truths is so damaging to democracy.”
Spot on Peter. Just goes to show what kind of mentality resides in the corridors of power these days. Lies, manipulation, propaganda, bribery in public office, arrogance, corruption beyond measure, unaccountability.
It’s rotten to the core, and usually when a country finds itself in the gutter with a quisling government there is only one eventual outcome – uprising.
I say bring it, it’s about time those in the establishment who would sell our country and sovereignty were dragged kicking and screaming from their ivory towers, and dealt with outside by the people.
I think it’s going to happen, and sooner than might be realised. There is so much real anger boiling up, and all caused by EU quisling Theresa May and those who did nothing to remove her. Fake news, scare tactics and more lies will not save them or the government.
November 30, 2018
@Peter, I agree with your summary of the regrettable state of affairs. To make matters worse, the BBC who we should be able to rely on shining an objective light on these machinations instead colludes with all and sundry to our detriment.
It is not just confidence but trust which have been diminished.
November 29, 2018
I think the economic argument is over and engaging in it is, at this stage , an unnecessary admission that there is anything remotely respectable to be bought from the anti Europe fake factory
The Treasury figures did bring out some useful facts beneath the overall bad news. The non existence of any Brexit Free trade dividend and the real substantial boost to GDP produced by immigration. Oh well I can still afford an “I told you so” tee shirt
November 29, 2018
I have been re-reading the Norway Debate of 1940, when the House finally roused itself from torpor and remembered its manhood, and the parallels are remarkable. Arguments, even whole chunks of speeches, could be lifted almost verbatim from then to now.
Remainers of 2018, like the Appeasers of 1940, have failed their country utterly and belong in the rubbish bin of history.
When Churchill became PM the chief Civil Service appeaser, Sir Horace Wilson, was given until 2pm to clear his desk and leave the building for good. When he demurred his belongings were piled in the corridor. Mr Robbins take note.
November 29, 2018
Newmania,
1. Long-term growth of GDP per capita is related to capital per labour increasing labour does not help this.
2. In terms of accessing the entrepreneurial aspects of immigration then having a policy that applies consistently and appropriately to the world.rather than part of it would seem more sensible (and fair).
November 29, 2018
A forecast is not a fact.
November 29, 2018
By that argument if we quadrupled immigration we would give a truly stupendous boost to GDP which would be in everybody’s interest?
November 29, 2018
Don’t call them facts.
They are just guesses of 15 years into the future.
Made by organisations that have a poor track record of previous predictions
November 29, 2018
@Newmania; No the debate is not over, but if it were so would any idea of calling another referendum for any reason, in any case many who voted to leave did so for (geo)political reasons, not economic, they fully understood the risks – as pointed out by HMT at the time…duh!
November 29, 2018
Uncontrolled immigration doesn’t boost per capita GDP. Strictly controlled immigration could do.
Before you start on the “damage” that lack of security co-operation could do, these arrangements could easily be rolled over regardless of everything else. Unless of course the parties involved are full of spite and resentment at losing their fight to keep us in the EU, in which case any issues would be their fault.
November 29, 2018
Their projections were even less credible than those of the Met office. How can you predict future growth for x year without knowing if the next Chancellor will be McDonnall, tax to death dope like Hammond or a sensible, low tax, free market, real Conservative? Or indeed know millions of other unknowable facts.
If you want growth you just get the government out of the way as much as you can. Government with 25% of GDP rather than pushing 50%. The opposite of a May or worse still a Corbyn agenda.
November 29, 2018
The long term projections (really just blatant propaganda) from the Met office that it like the ones debunked below.
https://www.thegwpf.com/the-met-offices-new-junk-climate-projections/
November 29, 2018
You just ignore history – the figures quoted by JR are historical fact! They are well known and clear to all. The SM is a dud in growth terms. You cannot and will not address this point because you are wrong. What is happening with this disgusting fake propaganda vomited from the Treasuryās guts is an affront to the democratic will of the people.
zorro
November 29, 2018
Contradiction is not an argument. Even Monty Python knew that! Your forecasts of doom arenāt even funny. I hope you are being rewarded for spouting such lies. Or are you just one in an army of useful idiots?
November 29, 2018
Interesting. Last night, the BBC news aired some of the most lop-sided irresponsible journalism yet seen. They spun the Bank of England figures as what would happen if the UK left the EU on WTO terms. It wasn’t until well into the programme that the audience were told this was merely a hypothetical worst-case scenario. There was a complete absence of any substantial counter model to show how the UK could do quite well. Are these the treasury figures you and all the rest of the remainers rely to heavily upon?
Don’t go buying that T shirt just yet, you might regret it.
November 29, 2018
Well, then, try this from the EU factory:
https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/c505dbb4-64f1-40a6-8062-ebdea6240bd4
“20 years of the European single market”
Author: Michel Barnier
On page 13:
āEU27 GDP in 2008 was 2.13% or ā¬233 billion higher than it would have been if the Single Market had not been launched in 1992.ā
Now explain why we should lose so much more than that from leaving.
November 29, 2018
NM. Everyone who has followed the argument knows that immigration boosts GDP and that this suits big business that wants to grow by sitting on its hands. Presumably, including yours, judging from the squealing.
November 29, 2018
“Immigration… the real substantial boost to GDP.”
Ah. So that’s why we have the very real threat of a Corbyn government.
Well. Socialism appeals to young people who have been priced out of jobs and housing by competitors, even if they don’t realise that this is what has happened.
November 29, 2018
The Treasury ridiculous forecasts are classic garbage in – garbage out. Our host points out their absurdity.
As does Andrew Lilico: https://capx.co/the-bank-of-englands-brexit-forecasts-arent-just-wrong-theyre-absurd/
Forecasts are just… forecasts. Other forecasts available: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/28/will-the-treasury-tell-us-the-cost-of-belonging-to-the-eu-that-is-fact-not-fiction/#comment-976930 (& scroll up)
November 29, 2018
Please pay attention Newmania.
In 2016 the UKās net contribution was about Ā£8.6 billion. Customs duties after collection costs were ā¬3.2 billion, VAT ā¬3.3 billion.
Customs duties and VAT contributions are in addition to our membership fees ā so Ā£5bn pa can be added to the net membership fee.
All this money to fund a trade deficit.
People consider the EU is a free trade union for members like the UK when we have to pay ā¬19 billion a year to be in it. Thatās twice or more what we would pay on tariff for the amount we import annually.
November 29, 2018
Good morning
As I said in yesterday’s post. Peter Shaw made these kinds of predictions back in 1975 at the Oxford Union Debate. See YouTube.
—
The problem here is, we are allowing those that wish us tied to the EU to set the debate. That is usually around the economy, business and jobs. To me it has always been about governance. Who makes our laws. Who signs our treaties. Who represents us. Who is answerable to us. None of this can be said to be the UK government and parliament because they have given most of the powers away.
I voted Leave because I do not want the EU to do anything for me, I want my parliament to do it. That is what all 650 MP’s are paid to do !
I don’t care about the money. None of our former colonies cared about the money when they were given independence. They were never asked to sign an Withdrawal Agreement before being granted independence. Why should we ?
November 29, 2018
Indeed. Labourās Peter Shore – rather than āShawā.
November 30, 2018
Oops ! Thanks š
November 29, 2018
Somehow we accepted the inevitable whereas it seems to be too early for the EU empire to do likewise. In any case, the Prussian mentality doesn’t allow for this sensible realisation that empires need to be disassembled in an orderly fashion rather than by military defeat.
November 29, 2018
Well said and very true. Nor should the U.K. be forced to ask for permission to leave!
In the last two world wars Millions of people died and were maimed to preserve our independent way of life. May is proposing to give this away for nothing and without challenge whatsoever! We learn she asked for the customs union, she asked for the extension, she asked for the extension to the extension. All as a vassal state! What did these brave men die for?
There is no reason why the UK could not negotiate a trade deal with the EU from 30/03/2019 as a self governing independent nation, not a vassal state with a gun to our heads! What on earth is May and Hammond thinking.
November 29, 2018
Well said, Mark. There has been a very successful campaign by the Remain camp to convince everyone that it’s all about money. Like you, I’d rather mistakes were made by our own accountable politicians, if mistakes there be.
Trade has been used to take people’s eyes off the ball and now the media are obsessed with ‘deals’ and ‘negotiations’ and so forth, and remainers are obviously seduced by the weasel words.
To the EU ‘sovereignty’ is a dirty word. No wonder they (and their remain supporters) would rather we didn’t think too much about it.
November 29, 2018
I couldn’t agree more. There may be a short term dip in economic activity while exporting and importing companies adjust to the new circumstances, but they will adjust because they have customers to serve and shareholders to satisfy. Politicians do not control what we buy and sell – except by raising or lowering tariffs – it’s the likes of you and me.
I am quite prepared for the short term inconvenience in order to be free of Brussels.
November 30, 2018
Mark Carney should be sacked for politicising and further discrediting The Bank of England. The trouble is, the people who should sack him also need to be sacked.
November 29, 2018
My view is not quite so uncompromising.
When a conquered people see their land devastated and many of their children left without fathers and crying with hunger they may decide they have no choice but to submit to superior force and hope for better times in the future.
However we are not yet a conquered people, and my own choice was made much easier many years ago when I read in Whitaker’s Almanac that it was projected the Single Market could increase GDP by 5%, which struck me then as a small mess of pottage for which our politicians were prepared to sell our birthright.
And it has only got easier as people like Michel Barnier have come out with their boasts about the huge benefits of the Single Market – 2% of GDP rather than the projected 5% – and other analyses have suggested that the gross benefit for the UK has been much less than that average – and the EU itself has publicly come out with estimates of the costs which greatly exceed the benefits.
November 29, 2018
I agree completely
BobE
November 29, 2018
The Withdrawal agreement is a scam, the same as the Northern Ireland backstop a smokescreen to tie us to the EU indefinitely. May’s been found out and the Tory’s will pay the political price for a generation or more!
November 29, 2018
Our former colonies had the great good fortune to be dealing with a law abiding, decent nation state, not a dictatorship.
November 29, 2018
Oh really? I don’t suppose the African slaves who had to toil in the tobacco plantations and cotton fields in the Caribbean and the Americas would see it quite your way.
Nor people like the Tasmanians and many others who were driven off their land or exterminated.
November 30, 2018
Those slaves were sold to Europeans by other African. ie There was always a slave trade going on well before Europeans arrived. And it was the British that ended slavery and compensated the owners of slaves first. Don’t believe me, do your own research.
November 30, 2018
Oh really? I don’t suppose that you will have forgotten that the terms of de-colonialisation were favourable to those countries who became independent (something that the EU could never contemplate), but we cannot be held responsible for how they subsequently managed their freedom…
zorro
November 29, 2018
Your post seems to assume this country is something like a colony of the EU, something we never signed up to or agreed to. On reflection you could be right about that.
November 29, 2018
Exactly, the WA is in fact an association agreement modelled on the Ukraine document.
It is designed to keep them in control and make it easy to rejoin at a later date.
No doubt this was Mays intent all the time.
Lancaster House and Florence were just spoofs.
November 29, 2018
ian
“No doubt this was Mays intent all the time.”
Rather the EU’s (intent)
November 29, 2018
It really is a matter of governance and quality of life, and the base materialistic talk of Remainers depresses me.
November 30, 2018
“Through money democracy becomes it’s own destroyer,after money has destroyed intellect.”-Oswald Spengler from his prophetic “Decline of the West”.
A believer in the cyclicality of nations and civilisations,he viewed the final stage of decay as the conflict between “blood and money.”He also predicted that a new,rejuvenated European culture would ultimately come from Russia.
November 29, 2018
We are an independent country – and always have been.
It is MPs in Westminster who make the laws which really affect our everyday lives. They are the ones to blame for the NHS being bad. Our schools are in a shocking state because Westminster MPs have failed. Likewise our roads and our railways.
The EU exists to facilitate trade. And, it turns out, it excels at it – which is why you are all unable to come up with a plan to make trade better.
Your claim that Westminster ārepresents usā is also untrue. Most seats are safe seats. The electorate as a whole does not count. Just the party. The Tories always get a significantly bigger share of seats than they do of votes. So does the DUP and the SNP. People who vote UKIP, Green, Lib Dem and many others are woefully underrepresented compared to the votes their parties get.
Nobody votes for the Prime Minister. Nor any members of the Cabinet. It is entirely a party decision.
It is ironic that those who find fault in everything the EU does are too blind to see that most – if not all – of their criticisms apply at least equally to Westminster.
The real truth is that most Brexiteers struggle with the idea that anyone may find cause to find flaws in their beliefs. This is why everyone from the press, to experts, to high court judges, to civil servants, to the BBC, to Gary Linekar have been labelled traitors or enemies of the people.
November 29, 2018
You are wrong andy
Read the treaties we have signed.
The EU has legal supremacy in many important areas.
To deny it is ridiculous.
November 29, 2018
Andy
Ho ho ho
The EU excels at trade ….. Their two biggest customers by miles DO NOT have trade agreements with them. More than 86% of trade is in services and they have no market in services. You are deluded boy
You just dont understand. Adding a layer of incompetent government on top of another layer of incompetent government is not a reason to remain stuck . We have voted to remove one layer , once thats done we will get to work on the next layer
November 30, 2018
Libertarian,
I assume you are talking about rules on services here, as the market in services within the Eu is very significant?
November 30, 2018
Agreed. Getting out is just the start. Once those in government have to take full responsibility, then we can sort out the wheat from the chaff.
November 30, 2018
Andy, ask Portillo, Ed Balls, Chris Patten, Nick Clegg etc about safe seats, no seat is safe. At the next election there will be lots of well-qualified ex-MEPs looking for seats and work and if the Tories block knowledgeable people like Hannan again it would be a mistake.
November 29, 2018
Keep up John. Theyāve moved on to security today. I look forward to tomorrowās warnings.
November 29, 2018
DaveM. Should be good for a laugh
November 29, 2018
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6438955/No-deal-Brexit-mean-pound-crashing-Bank-England-warns.html
I said months ago the more intense project fear would be the closer we got to march next year, Iāll give Carney a prediction if Brexit is stopped and the will of 17.4 million isnāt carried out there will be riots on the streets and the people against the will of the people will be held to account
November 29, 2018
Unless you support Mrs May’s deal, it will not pass Parliament, and there will be a 2nd referendum and we will remain in the EU. John Redwood, your blinkered ideology is putting Brexit at risk.
November 29, 2018
Why should there be a second referendum ?
A vote for Leave was a vote for No Deal from day 1. It’s Remain who have changed the definition and had the audacity to tell us what we were thinking.
November 30, 2018
Mrs May’s deal is not Brexit. It ties us to the EU as closely as remaining with no Article 50, way to leave, or say in future policy decisions.
November 30, 2018
If we dunk you and you die you’re not a witch. If you survive you are a witch and we’re going to hang you.
Stoke leaver, if you’re truly from Stoke I’m surprised you’re weriting about this possibility that is no choice is it!
This agreement is like divorcing someone and being forced to live in the house and under the ex-husband’s rules for the house whilst he continues to expect you to pay more than half the bills! Plus he gets to choose who you’ll hang out with and not tell you when you can be released from the ensuing mess.
November 29, 2018
W.r.t. Final sentence.
You get dramatic falls in.output by (1) Not preparing to.leave for.The last two.years and (2) persuading businesses and institutions to cause it to happen.
November 29, 2018
Mr Carney commenting that infrastructure and businesses aren’t ready simply confirms the failure of govt and civil service. It also confirms the failure of the opposition and the media to hold the govt to account on delivering the referendum result. The institutions of the UK have failed since the referendum and are continuing to do so.
November 29, 2018
The Bank of England figures are not forecasts.
The BoE was asked – by MPs actually – to come with a range of Brexit scenarios and way they could do to our economy. COULD being the crucial bit.
The BoE did not say which of these will happen – that is largely down to MPs.
The BoE work – by some of the best economists in the country – is in broad agreement with Treausry figures and LSE/UCL and Niser research too.
All of it shows that your Brexit ultimately makes the country poorer than it would otherwise be.
Now, you may still have your reasons for wanting Brexit. Money is not everything. But each of you now has to look your children and grandchildren in the face and justify your reasons for making them poorer. Because that is what you are doing.
As for MPs they now have to choose between Mrs Mayās lousy deal and no deal. Those who choose no deal – knowing what the Bank of England says about it – will be committing a crime against their country and will ultimately be punished.
All of the choices you face are bad Mr Redwood.
November 30, 2018
They plainly are forecasts.
They are trying to guess the future.
Recent previous forecasts have been inaccurate.
And if you actually look at the base assumptions and ingredients in these new forecasts you can see why.
December 1, 2018
Edward 2
Both sides of the argument have unfortunately made these mistakes
December 2, 2018
The ones from the establishment bodies like the Bank and the Treasury get all the airtime in the media.
Those who show good well founded criticism of their predi tions and the obvious flaws in tjeir basic date get largely ignored.
November 29, 2018
Following Andy’s logic, these Treasury forecasts seem to be being made by angry old men so let’s ignore them.
November 29, 2018
Now, who should I believe, the Bank of England which is one of the pillars of my country or the rantings of John Redwood, the man who laughably said we hold the cards in this “negotiation” – http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/07/17/getting-out-of-the-eu-can-be-quick-and-easy-the-uk-holds-most-of-the-cards-in-any-negotiation/
November 29, 2018
I have read the daily article by our host for several years.
There has never been even a hint of what you claim is a rant.
November 29, 2018
Renton
Dont believe the BoE they have been totally wrong on every call so far.
November 29, 2018
ps
Even Paul Krugman the nobel economist who speciality is predicting disaster made a statement yesterday rubbishing the BoE forecasts
November 29, 2018
A remainer – never make a comment without including an insult.
Why bother, Renton?
November 29, 2018
The Treasury misses the point about prosperity. In my own sphere, my prosperity is down to how well I work, whether I am creative and industrious. The growth or otherwise in my company has little to do with being in or out of the EU. Roll this out to the UK as a whole and the same principle applies.
If we could have a leader of the country who inspires industry to excel, the improvement in prosperity could dwarf the marginal difference between being in or out of the EU.
What we need is to replace the “hate your country” mentality with “believe in Britain”, and to my mind independence can help us achieve that.
November 30, 2018
hear, hear
November 29, 2018
How else do they get to such a wildly high fall in output? – Simply following orders!
November 29, 2018
Not sure of the relevance of the comparison of growth rates between the post war recovery decades and subsequent decades by which time growth had slowed everywhere. The ERM argument is stronger, this was purely driven by EU idealogy and was a terrible policy -supported at the time by ‘most economists’ the CBI etc etc
The real absurdity is the BoE sees a monumental crisis from the slightest change to the way trade is carried on with the EU but no gains from moving to free trade with other countries, which are in aggregate larger than the EU and faster growing.
Now that Mr Carney has become fully involved in political debate he should tell us what the BoE think of Corbyn’s plans for Ā£1/2trillion spending on nationalisation and confiscation of shares in companies etc.
November 29, 2018
All I say to myself when I see such tosh is Millenium Bug!
November 29, 2018
We’ve heard all this before. I didn’t believe it then and I don’t believe it now. The treasury cannot accurately predict six months ahead. That’s not intended as a criticism, economics is about as predictable as weather, more than a month out. If predictions six months out are unreliable, these are little more than fantasy and pro-remain biased fantasy at that.
Even if they are correct, I don’t care, I still want to leave. Anyway a lower pound is good for exports, lower house prices are good for first time buyers and higher interest is good for savers. It’s an ill wind and all that!
November 29, 2018
Carney has one again abused his position and office doubtless encouraged to do so by Hammond. Three daft BBC editors on Newsnight, discussing the project fear projections as if they were serious. He started by giving a worse case scenario – why and why no best case?
If we want growth the way to get it is to cut taxes, cut the expensive energy agenda, get fracking, have a bonfire or daft red tape, go for easy hire and fire, have a sensible selective immigration policy, get rid of Hammond and May and replace with real smaller government Conservatives with vision and avoid Corbyn.
Singapore GDP PPP is now about double that of the UKs, with growth about 6% PA and has been around that for years. At this rate it will be about four times that of the UK in another 25 years. Rather less time than that if we get Corbyn/Mc Donnall/SNP lunacy, as May seems to be arranging.
November 29, 2018
The Treasury want it both ways – blaming the EU where it suits them
It seems the Westminster swamp is as big as that Swamp trump talked about…. and it’s all about the socialist establishment that is plotting our future. or rather lack of one.
November 29, 2018
This is all over the biased BBC and SKY news channels. Pity they are not giving the same airtime to people like you John to stress to the public this is nothing more than scaremongering. They were hopelessly wrong with their scaremongering forecasts during the referendum so why should we believe a word that comes out of their mouths. Hopefully their propoganda will backfire on them big time and only strengthen the resolve of the Great British people to see how the Chancellor and Carney along with May will do and say anything to keep us in their beloved rotten EU.
November 29, 2018
Disavowed, ridiculed and made to look foolish by actual out-turns, we should perhaps spare a thought for the H.M. Treasury civil servants who produce such poor forecasts. Perhaps a prize could be offered to be won by any amongst them whose work is less than 100 per cent. wrong?
November 29, 2018
My Grandfather (who was sales director at Ransomes Simms & Jefferies and retired in 1974) was against joining the Common Market because he said Europe would just dump all their cheap low quality goods onto the UK market.
Mr Redwood, I gave his speach he wrote in 1971 about this issue to your researcher some months ago. Itās time to rebuild our manufacturing industry and help give the young something to be proud of.
Moreover, my other Grandfather who was the Managing Director of Crane (Europe) was also not in favour of joining the Common Market. I remember him saying that all the contracts heād even sign with European companies or countries were never honoured. What makes you think we should trust Europe within a common market.
I wish they were alive today, they would give some of these glass-half-empty Remainers a right dressing-down.
November 29, 2018
It is self evident: if you put false assumptions into your forecast models, the results will be bad!
Under the āNo Transition, No Dealā scenario the Bank of England assume:
* EU Applies Common Customs Tariff. UK applies symmetric tariffs.
* No new trade deals implemented before 2023.
* No discretionary changes in tax or spending policy.
Clearly all of this would not happen. If we applied symmetric tariffs there would be extra money for tax and spend. Alternatvely if we lowered tariffs on food, car parts, clothing and footwear, this would boost the economy.
This proves their forecast is wrong.
November 29, 2018
“How else do they get to such a wildly high fall in output?”
Focus testing?
Question: How do you feel on hearing the following figures? (Please mark your answer as “More democratic”, “Consistently democratic” or “Not democratic at all”.)
1. -3% fall in GDP
2. -5% fall in GDP
3. -8% fall in GDP
November 29, 2018
I heard on Politics Live that apparently the treasuryās forecasts assume that trade deals with the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will have just a 0.2% total effect on our economy. Project Fear is in full swing. It is amazing how they are trying the exact same tactic that has already proven a failure. I wonder if MPs will be as immune to it as the public were when they come to vote in the commons?
November 29, 2018
Do those who earnestly support Brexit not have the means to publishing such figures ? Why does Remain always seem to grab the headline.?
November 29, 2018
It’s true, Ferdinand. We are sick of reading of these project fear scenarios, with no robust refutation from the Brexit camp. And we KNOW that the truth is out there. Why not shout it from the rooftops? Or, as you say, be the first to grab the morning’s headlines.
November 29, 2018
Small changes in the assumed rate of growth compound to large differences in the range of possible results 15 years in the future. Unfortunately HMG and its organ the BBC present only the figures that suit their narrative.
November 29, 2018
Still no updates on who gave legal advice to the government that contradicted the House of Lords and said we owed the EU billions of Ā£Ā£. MPs should be demanding to see this and all other legal advice the PM has received at every opportunity they get. This government is not being transparent and it all looks pretty shady.
November 29, 2018
Lets face it John we have the equivalent of a dirty tricks propaganda department in operation within the government which has been operating now for at least 3 years, who are trying every trick and lie in the book, to try and retain our membership of the EU.
At first their project fear was not co-ordinated and so was treated with the laugh it deserved, but I am afraid now it has got very much more serious.
If this sort of propaganda continues for many more years, which I fear it will given the lengthy trade negotiations still to be agreed, it will eventually break down any trust people had left in our Government and our so called democracy.
There will eventually be a huge backlash of some sort by the people, and all present Parties may then wonder why, and perhaps may, just may, reflect upon their past behaviour.
History will judge them, and I suggest not very kindly.
For the sake of brevity I will leave it there.
November 29, 2018
Carney is fearmongering. I’ve just listened to him being interviewed on BBC Radio 4. When the interviewer put him under pressure concerning his and the BoE’s previous erroneous forecasts, he became defensive, raised his voice and launched into a rant about having to model various scenarios in order to “prepare” for us crashing out in March next year.
As far as I can work out, Carney’s analytical inputs are extreme extrapolations derived from unlikely scenarios. Is there any truth in the rumour circulating in financial circles that he has demanded that his salary for 2019 is paid in Euro? No wonder he is talking down sterling. Clearly, the PM should sack him and bring in a sensible replacement.
November 29, 2018
BBC Toady program were in full panic mode this morning, interviewing a succession of people who support Mrs May, and quoting Mark Carney’s warnings on what seemed like an endless loop. In the interest of balance they read out an anti Withdrawal Agreement editorial headline from The Sun, albeit in a goofy mocking way.
At this rate they’ll be having a collective nervous breakdown if the “agreement” is rejected.
It’s becoming quite apparent that it’s mostly the Remainers that support it, which speaks volumes.
November 29, 2018
They admit this is an extreme prediction, but fail to offer the other extreme prediction:
A managed move to a balanced trading arrangement with the EU, border and immigration control would:
-Improve our balance of trade with the EU
-Improve our export potential to the rest of the world
-Reduce input prices in the UK, reduce inflation
-Reduce unemployment but ensure we can recruit the best and brightest worldwide for important jobs, rather than limiting ourselves to denuding poor EU countries of their skilled workers
-Reduce taxes on the back of the improved trade balance, reduced unemployment and no contribution to propping up sclerotic EU countries
Difficult to put a figure on it, of course, because the potential is limitless.
November 29, 2018
The Brexit Dictionary
” Project Fear”= A Term applied to any statement made by any qualified person
“Opportunities of Brexit” = The theory that wealth and words are the same thing ( see magic beans )
“Take Back Control of our borders = Blame people who look different for everything
“Nativist”= A euphemism for bigot or racist
“Worried about immigration” – Another euphemism for bigot racist or old puzzled person
“Pressure on resources” – Euphemism for Foreign people are stealing our stuff
” Record levels of spending “- Pre-fix to any lie about cuts.
” The people”- The people who were persuaded by the Daily Mail to bankrupt the country two years ago many of whom now regret it
” The promise of Brexit” – The deliverable lie tat Brexit will make us richer
” We will hold all the cards “- We will not hold any cards
November 29, 2018
Britain has been great regards immigration. It has been ruined by Maastricht.
Proof that you are wrong about us being racists is the number of people climbing into rubber boats to be with us and to escape the EU !
November 29, 2018
PS, the new arrivals won’t be living in your community, they’ll be living in mine. I suppose we’ll just keep rubbing along as ever.
November 29, 2018
Newmania
Remain Dictionary
Project fear = wild rambling of people who are ignorant of the subject
Opportunities in EU = No idea no one on the remain side has ever come up with any
Open Borders = The rise of right wing parties in continental Europe
Welcoming White Europeans – cheap nannys, au pairs, car washers and below NMW workers & virtue signalling
Pressures on resources = The EU takes taxpayers money that could be spent on resources here
Record levels of spending = a verifiable fact ( remainers hate facts)
The People = the majority who voted leave ( unlike Murdoch, The Mail, the big Banks who all voted remain)
The Promise of Brexit = Massive opportunity s for trade in a global world that is growing
We hold all the cards= shame they are being played by incompetent remainers
November 29, 2018
Meanwhile “Project Fear” moves on, this morning the scare is security, as if security did not exist before the European Councils TREVI agreement of 1975 or that any of it exists today outside the influences of Interpol, NATO and the UN.
November 29, 2018
It is awfully sad to realize that a large number of people seem unable to make the difference between a scenario and a forecast, and even more when people who should know better appear to mix the two things willingly. Obviously, it is not a lie by omission or otherwise, but all the same utterly dishonest.
November 30, 2018
hefner
Its more sad the the establishment deliberately try to conflate two things, both of which are totally meaningless
Ive just completed an in depth scenario report on the EU. They might be hit by a series of asteroids in 2024 that would disrupt the entire EU operation . There you go, now heres my 15 year forecast for the prospects of the EU, following the withdrawal of US support for EU military , the EU rearmament programs sucked in all the trade surplus created by Germany and turned manufacturing over to higher levels of defence production. The subsequent invasion of the Ukraine by Russia caused a massive hit to the Euro resulting in a GDP fall of 12.724%
Best get out now while we can
December 1, 2018
Libertarian,
What a load of nonsense
December 2, 2018
Same as the Bank and the Treasury’s predictions.
November 29, 2018
Brexit inadvertently reveals more unnecessary imports through manufacturing decline. I was amazed to read most of our tiles are imported. Perhaps most of our bricks too?
November 29, 2018
Alister Heath is spot on again today.
Mayās deal would just prolong Brexit warfare by two decades, while almost guaranteeing a Corbyn government. Is that really what her MPs want?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/29/no-backstop-bridget-save-remainer-brexit-deal-oblivion/
November 29, 2018
I note that Andrea Leadsom has now decided to back Mays Brexit deal.Is this a sign that the dominoes are starting to fall? I would not be a bit surprised if she gets this through unless the letters go through to Graham Brady.Lets just pray the letters do get through.
November 29, 2018
A few days ago Andrea Leadsome was on the verge of resigning over the Surrender Treaty and now shes fully behind it.
I wonder why she changed her mind?
November 29, 2018
I voted to leave the EU so that the UK would be an independent, self-governing country. I voted not to remain in what was then called the EEC in 1975 and have had to wait 41 years for another chance to throw off the yoke of what is now called the EU. Two and a half years later we find that most MPs are scurrying about trying to reverse that result or in the case of Mrs May signing agreements that far from giving us independence would condemn us to the status of a vassal state. I can never remeber a time when the calibre of MPs was so low. Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised that most can’t think what to do beyond the next directive from Brussels. Things could and should have been much better if only someone who believed in Brexit and this country’s abilities had taken over after Cameron resigned.
One irony is that those MPs who want us to remain shackled to the EU would be among the first to demand independence for any colonial country. Perhaps, they see our subjugation to a foreign power, in the shape of the EU, as penitence for the old British Empire?
November 29, 2018
We were instructed by Cameron to take part in a Referendum (his motive was to put a spoke in UKIPās wheels since he believed he could manipulate the vote).
We duly voted and the winning side has spent two long years being harassed, harangued and bullied by those who wanted to remain and who believed they could āfixā the outcome of the Referendum. What a supremely nasty,cruel trap they set for us.
I certainly do not remember any attempts to reverse the Referendum that chained us to the EU in the 1970s with blatant lies denying loss of sovereignty. No ..because in those days we were naive and believed and respected the government. Ha!
November 29, 2018
We cross the road despite what could happen to us in a worst case scenario. Why do we do that? It makes no sense. Death or serious injury could result. Safer to stay in bed.
The Bank of England cries wolf again and we do not believe them. Speculation about GDP over a number of years is not credible. How could it be. Why would anybody act on the basis of what amounts to a mere guess.
Incidentally when has the Bank ever got it right?
November 29, 2018
So the British govt have agreed to sign the UN Migration Pact which will consider criticism of mass immigration to be Hate Speech.
Another step on the road to totalitarian one world government.
November 29, 2018
I am for a NO deal.
I do not believe that European businesses will commit commercial suicide.
Will the French permit Calais, the Town and Port to be blocked with truckloads of rotting vegetables and food.
Will the continental truckers be happy with their vehicles stuck on the M20 because Calais has seized up.
Time some one looked at the logistics of trade rather than the Commissions rule book.
November 29, 2018
Whatever you might say the signs are ominous- Some have been banging on about trade by WTO rules as the answer and that would be alright if we had some new trading partners lined up- but we don’t- and we are not exactly surrounded by friendly nations either- nor can we depend on the American under Trump- he blows with the wind
So what could happen- Mrs May’s Withdrawal agreement will probably be defeated in the HoC- she will then announce that the Withdrawal is dead and since there is no divorce agreement in place with them then that leaves only two possibilities ie. to Leave 29 March without an agreement or else ask the EU can we put a stay on where we are ie. put A50 on indefinite hold- then put it all back to the people. But the EU will not agree to that especially with EU Parliament elections coming up and as there are so many red lines in place nothing else will work either. The question then is why are we even discussing what happened to the economy back after the war years when it has nothing to do with today.
November 29, 2018
Yet another gloomy forecast by the BOE prefaced as worst case scenario by Mr Carney.
Given the abysmal forecasting record by this body over recent years there should be a further calculation included , that of percentage discount for incorrect submissions in the past to aid for a more finely tuned report.
Imagine forecasting a journey to work – would you include the possibility of being hit by a bus and/or being kidnapped? Don’t think so , not with a brain to think and eyes to see.
If accuracy is an important factor why is nothing being done to improve it? Or is this just used as a tool for manipulation.
November 29, 2018
I used to watch TV news every morning, and still do from time to time, however the blatant propaganda and fear-mongering is reaching hysterical levels. Fake news on every channel. Do we have a Trump figure hidden away to deal with this? Preferably with a less obnoxious facade….
November 29, 2018
Andrea Leadsom reported to have joined the betrayor tory remainers. She must have been promised something. If so, and if May gets that terrible sell out deal through, Leadnone can be Lady Leadnone, in a destroyed tory party out of office for a generation. It would be a pleasure to watch the socialists dismantle the betrayor party.
Remainer tories have no where to go under a leave leader. They can only vote tory. By contrast, leave voters can go wherever to punish conservatives for blowing this current opportunity for a true brexit.
November 29, 2018
The āTreasuryā also assumes, that an independent freely elected democratic government wonāt have the power to address any situation that may (or may not) arise in the future.
If as a free country we did finish up with a parliament not capable of governing, and as free democratic people we would just replace them. The Treasury is extrapolating figures that cover at least 6 parliamentary periods, so even if ‘we’ get the wrong people in a couple of times, we still get to change them.
The proposition for a way forward as presented so far would of course mean we would still be governed, taking laws and being dictated to by a foreign power for the period of the in question.
Having those involved in project fear tasked with moving us on was always going to lead to more of the same, doom, gloom and hysteria.
No one in the UK voted for a deal with the EU, they just voted to get out from under oppressive rule that is in many ways holding the UK and the World back. A clean break and the peoples and the businesses in the UK would quickly adjust move on and prosper. Long before any slow endless adjustments of what is suggested in the proposals.
The so called deal gives the impression of a last ditch attempt by the re-moaners to engineer a ālets just stayā.
November 29, 2018
Carney said no-deal Brexit could trigger the worst recession in 100 years, put a million people on benefits, spark a run on the pound and cause a 30 percent crash in house prices. Even Remain ex BOE economist Sentance advises caution against such an extreme scenario forecast.
The question is can Hammond and Carney between them create this by stopping public spending (more necessary austerity), putting up interest rates, cutting borrowing, restrictions on mortgage borrowings. At the end of the day, we have three remain devotees in charge of running the UK economy, why are they slowing public spending again at the moment?
The last remain Chancellor George Osborne, didn’t set out on an austerity program for no good reason, someone told him he had to bring the UK debt and deficit under control, who? No one person sets out to be so personally toxic and leave a ‘personal legacy’ that no current member of the Conservative party ever defends, why isn’t GO put on the rack and asked to justify what he did for eight years.
Can’t we ask Carney, how does he think making excessively gloomy statements will affect the pound right now?
November 29, 2018
Part of the poor growth in our economy whilst members of the EU must be attributable to the cavalier attitude of Tories and spiv accountants to the ownership of British businesses and the baleful effect foreign ownership has had on those businesses. From the flogging off of the electrical engineering industry, through the flogging off of our confectionery industry to the selling of ARM to the Japs, the potential for British manufacturing to grow and prosper in our own country has been severely curtailed. What possible benefit is there in having the legislature of a free country but with all decisions about the productive economy being taken in foreign capitals worldwide? When will Tories clue up and understand that ‘undertakings’ given by foreigners are not worth the paper they are written on. Meanwhile the Tories demonstrate their congenital stupidity by trusting the EU during their ‘negotiations’: never give a sucker an even break. Get real. Get out.
November 29, 2018
This sort of comparison is not helpful.
The UK economy grew in the 25 years prior to joining the EU at an unsustainable rate in a non innovative manner which had no future. The Keynesian pursuit of constant full employment at all costs, in every locality and in every existing industry was a disaster and was an obstacle to change and innovation.
By the time we joined the EEC our industries were hopelessly uncompetitive and near industrial ruin. Part of the advantage of joining was to give them a short sharp shock.
The world has been very different in the past 25 years.
None of that however tells us anything about whether being in the EU has been a good thing. I would say that up till the mid to late 1980s it was good thing, and since then it has become increasing a bad thing.
We need to recognise that there have been good and bad consequences of being in the EU and look to make the most of the future
We are LEAVING the EU and have the choice between a more protectionist trade regime than we’ve had within it, or an even free-er free trading one with the rest of the world instead of it
I choose the latter.
November 29, 2018
Reported losses at homas Cook is just the start of it..and nothing to do with the last 25 years before we joined the EEC.. and now the end of it is? nobody knows, but probably not very pretty..very likely with the total breakup of the UK itself.and as somebody else said the result of unintended consequences.. all started by a bunch of Po heads..taking back control..right
November 30, 2018
Thomas Cook is now German owned. So I am not too concerned about their investment.
November 29, 2018
You would have thought in a digital age the PM would know better than to direct institutions to send obfuscated and one sided forecasts and treat them as fact. Does she not remember the fake pesimistic forecasts pushed out before the refereendum and public figures admitting after when challenged that they had been instructed by the then Chancellor?
Does she not think we got sick of hearing “brexit means brexit” and “no deal is better than a bad deal” 18 months ago or was that just an illusion?
The one thing that BREXIT has shown us is the amount of dishonesty in our public institutions there is today and that fact that many appear to be politiczied. How can they expect the population to obey the law when they behave like they have?
If we’d have more honest information from the outset then we would not have been in this position – if the political class had spelled out from the outset that joining the EEC meant a single currency (originally intended by 1980), a single army and a Europe wide government and put it to a referendum the the UK could have accepted or declined with eyes wide open.
Before the referendum I thought the single market was good for the UK economy but having looked at it closer since I have come to the conclusiion that its not the “what they do” is how they do it is the issue due to the UK being a common law state and most of Europe based on napoleonic principles.
We could surely in some cases achieve the same outcomes using common law principles rather than the upfront complexity of Directives and regulations enforced by Quangos – this might go someway to explaining why countries like Australia have managed to increase EU trade whilst the UK has not.
I take it treasury forecasting has not even looked at this type of thing in their calculations – they assume we leave in a clean no deal brexit but keep everything as is – even bad laws.
November 29, 2018
We now see why Carney decided to stay on to ‘influence’ Brexit…
We can now look forward to remainers and those with vested interests trying to portray this Great Britain & NI as anything other than the 5th largest economy on the planet and incapable of managing our own economy, laws, borders, judiciary, money, agrifood, fishing, free trade deals, international aid and development, security blah blah.
The Mars Insight probe has safely landed and will hopefully be sending back analysis never dreamed of in 1972. Please all note that three of the seismometer instruments were developed by OxCam. Not bad for a dim and uneducated nation that are currently ruled by unelected and unknown ghost foreigners.
November 29, 2018
Interesting GDP growth chart https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/n3y6/qna
Spot the Maudling’s mini-boom 1964; Barber’s boom, 1973; Lawson’s boom, 1988. And, the subsequent busts that went with them. Not forgetting Major’s 1990-92 ERM misadventure.
Yesterday’s Treasury Brexit Calculations I can live with, the BoE’s not. Remember all the big brains are in the Treasury; which is where we should put the BoE minus its monetary policy bits, which can go in the nearest skip.
November 30, 2018
I notice that the trend seems to be going down.
November 30, 2018
Addendum.
If you look at the trend from 1956 – 72 it seems either to be stable or ever so slightly rising. But is you look at the trend from 1972 – 2017, the period we are in the EEC/EC/EU then it is definitely going down.
December 1, 2018
That’s what happens when a nation hooks onto a good thing; lies back in its comfy chair and lets its more dynamic neighbours supply it with goodies, in exchange for London prime real estate; some nice little earners like power, gas and water companies.
November 29, 2018
If May, Hammond and Carney succeed we will have 5 years of Corbyn, then who knows? Labour will have made themselves unelectable, the Tories will still be unelectable, so a Trump like figure will emerge to drain the swamp. Is this really what they want?
November 29, 2018
I see the pm is to debate her sellout with Corbyn. Another program to avoid. I want her to debate with you or Jacob or IDS but of course she can’t risk that can she. I am fast getting to the point when I feel ashamed of my country.
November 29, 2018
I don’t think there can be any doubt that if the UK were ever able by some miracle to escape the clutches of the EU, in spite of the government’s best efforts, that May and Hammond would by hook and by crook work their butts off to ensure that the Treasury and BoE forecasts (joke) would come to pass. And come to pass with a vengeance. That is, provided they ever kept the government’s promise to abide by the Referendum vote, something which in reality they clearly have not the slightest intention of doing.
November 29, 2018
Every single newspaper is heavily selling May’s dodgy deal with threats of disaster if we don’t agree.
When the media speaks with a single voice in favour of the Country’s Leader, what you have is not a Parliamentary Democracy, but a fascist dictatorship.
Will Parliament save us, or is England gone for good, with something hideous taking its place?
November 29, 2018
So all the experts are wrong. Makes you wonder why we bother with them.
November 29, 2018
Margaret. Depends on your definition of expert. There are many experts that would have a different opinion.
November 29, 2018
Just check thier track records.
Follow the “experts” who get their predictions right.
November 29, 2018
None of them factor in corrective reactions. They predict catastrophe and there it ends.
Britons will not lay down and die.
November 29, 2018
margaret howard
Makes you wonder
a) Who checks their expertise
b) Why experts consistently wrong?
c) How come none of them actually have skin in the game
If you insist on living your life on the back of “so called experts” you are in for a big shock. Now more than ever its perfectly possible to do your own research and find you are usually being misled by “self proclaimed experts”
November 30, 2018
A big shock? Do you mean to say that I might end up in the operating theatre to have my appendix out being operated on by a, say, plumber? Or the cleaning lady? -:)
December 1, 2018
There is a difference between a trained person carrying out their skills and an academic looking at data and then trying to predict the future.
November 30, 2018
That depends on how you define expert
November 29, 2018
What it shows is that since 1973 nothing is capable of replacing the old industries, manufacturing, a good tariff system and running your own affairs, the govs have tried financialisation which doesn’t really spread the wealth as it should and mainly stays within the top 10% of people and when it goes bankrupt every few years, the middle people and lower people take the brunt of it and growth is lower for it.
Then, 5o% people going uni and are now coming out with huge debts have not improved growth, in fact, growth has gone down because of it and now know that education is not the key to growth and has not spread the wealth.
New tech and R&D has done nothing for growth and has not spread the wealth.
Mass immigration of over 300,000 a year has lowered living standards and growth.
The UK has been stuck in a two per cent growth range for years and now it is going down to 1.3% to 1.8% range and only seems to go up on gov putting more money in, the people treasury now has a debt of 2 trillion pounds, that tell you how bad growth has been and the results of the new ideas of the above have been to replace the old ways of working, having your regulation and laws made somewhere else and not under your control is a big problem, if something is not done soon to combat all these failings, I am forecasting that the peoples Treasurys debt will double in the next 15 years to 4 trillion pounds if you are not careful.
.
November 29, 2018
@mediabrexitmacro is to broadcast the latest project fear reports without saying the first one were wrong so why should these latest ones be believe.
Even BOE and Carney have coordinated their statements with her tour. Perhaps she will send for Obama has Cameron did during the referendum. It would be unlikely that Trump would support her position so she’ll have to make do with the former not the current potus.
November 29, 2018
and not forgetting that taxes are at an all-time high and set grow further.
November 29, 2018
Has anyone in Government read Adults in the Room by Yanis Varoufakis?
If they had ….would they seriously be suggesting the current withdrawal process is the right one?
November 29, 2018
If the news is to be believed Leadsome has sided with May so much for her fighting our corner. The others will roll over as sure as night follows day. Wonder what she has been promised?
November 29, 2018
I don’t know why but I keep finding myself singing that old song about the Grand Old Duke of York.
And when they were up they were up, and when they were down they were down, but when they only half way up – they were neither up nor down.
For some reason, now, I find myself changing the words involuntarily ā¦.
And when they were in they were in, and when they were out they were out, but when Mrs. May revealed her deal – they were neither in nor out.
November 29, 2018
No deal is better than a bad deal.
Any deal is better than no deal.
No deal is better than this deal.
November 29, 2018
If we ever have a government lead by a PM that is not scheming to reverse the referendum, Carney should be sacked and held until there is an inquiry into the politicization of the Bank of England.
November 29, 2018
I do not understand the scaremongering , also the reasoning behind making our withdrawal harder than it is required to be .
Britain does not wish to cease trading with the EU .
The EUs behaviour reinforces the leave campaigns doubts about its undemocratic processes.
November 29, 2018
National will be 1.8 trillion at the end of March 2019 with 220 billion of PFI debt still to be paid off which take it up to over 2 trillion pounds.
That all lost growth, the economy about 2.1 trillion in size, so 20 billion is 1% growth, so you have lost a 100 per cent growth somewhere over the last 50 years at today numbers but it a lot more than that because the economy would have been about 400 billion or less in 1970, I will call it 150 per cent lost over 50 years which is 3% a year.
How about this years growth, well the gov is spending about an extra 20 billion this year which buying them 1% growth, debt forecast to be 30 billion pounds or 1.5% of growth this year, so leaves 0.5 growth with taxes at there highest level ever, when factor in inflation of 2.5 to 3 per cent this year, you have lost 2 to 2.5 growth again this year, if the gov cannot collect enough taxes in this year to cover it extra I % spending it will increase taxes or borrow more money to bridge the gap which means less growth.
November 29, 2018
You only have debt because there is no growth, debt means growth, no debt no growth.
November 29, 2018
There is much talk of a debate between May and Corbyn. This is a false debate between one useless solution and a second, neither of which satisfy the vote of the electorate to leave the EU. I deem it pointless. The debate should be between Rees-Mogg’s group and May’s entrenched I am right ,there is no alternative arguement. The latter is reminiscent of orders to march to certain death in the mud of the Somme. The media have become very partial by ommission. When will you and the rest of the opposition to this be allowed a voice.
November 29, 2018
The FTSE 100 is the same value today as it was at the end of 1999, no growth but companies in it have huge amounts of debt.
November 29, 2018
What would be the point in Jeremy Corbyn debating Brexit with the PM on TV.. so far nobody knows what he believes or where he stands?
November 29, 2018
There is no intention to debate anything. No need to answer any questions, either.
Mrs May would simply make clear again and again how her deal was going to meet all six of the Labour Party’s red lines.
November 29, 2018
Hi John!
I’m with you on Brexit. Saw this and liked the way current thinking was turned on its head to our advantage.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/trump-s-tariff-tactics-could-make-no-deal-brexit-work-for-ireland-1.3711188
November 30, 2018
Good find
November 29, 2018
The BBC launched a new propaganda offensive. Now the ‘Security’ Minister (another civil servant) is doing his bit of ‘brown stuff’ stirring.
Biased interferer Damian Lyons Lowe is also at it, again peddling lies.
It strikes me that all these individuals and organisations need to keep their noses out of our business.
Bexit is a matter for people of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, no one else.
Those who lost the referendum should be made to understand that when you lose a democratic vote, you are in a minority and therefore have no privilege to subvert the will of the majority.
Then again, the new tactic of the left is to behave like spoiled brat balling and whinging cry babies when a ballot doesn’t go their way.
Their BS propaganda doesn’t wash with me, as you can probably guess.
November 29, 2018
Oh look, after so many months of deliberately allowing criticism of official government policy to go almost completely unchallenged, and in all likelihood covertly encouraging such criticism, suddenly Theresa May sees the need for a blog:
https://brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/
“This blog will set out facts relating to the Brexit agreement the government has reached with the European Union. It will offer rebuttal to criticisms and inaccurate reporting in the lead up to Parliamentās meaningful vote on the deal.”:
I suppose that means “facts” such as:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759018/PM_s_letter_to_the_nation.pdf
“We will take back control of our borders, by putting an end to the free movement of people once and for all.”
and
“Outside the EU, we will be able to sign new trade deals with other countries and open up new markets in the fastest-growing economies around the world.”
neither of which have yet been negotiated and agreed with the EU.
November 30, 2018
**https://brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/**
A blog with no comments allowed, I see. Possibly concerns about being contradicted, or asked awkward questions about the issues that aren’t mentioned?
November 29, 2018
“eeeww, it was the best on offer by the EU”
Utter sissy’s namby pamby tosh ! Virtually every member state owes it’s existence to the UK, especially France and Belgium, and anyone with half a brain knows the franco – walloon alliance doesn’t do negotiation, only blackmail, threats, robbery and treachery.
The only way to ‘negotiate’ with the EU is to go there and frighten the crap out of them straight away, otherwise they’ll show no respect and take advantage.
November 29, 2018
I am afraid our leave campaign is losing the war. Mrs May has run rings round us with help from Sarah Vine’s useless traitorous husband. I thought the day after the vote to leave that we wouldn’t be allowed to do so and it seems as if I’m sadly right. John you have played a poor hand, I will never vote again, it’s pointless.
November 29, 2018
These figures aren’t futile if they achieve their aim. May’s deal and a second vote.
November 29, 2018
For those who keep asserting that planes will no longer fly after Brexit, AP News reports today (29-November) that the US and UK have struck a deal to preserve the same access as today for air services between the two countries after Brexit;
https://www.apnews.com/319b80220aff4a31893a45ade6bf7414
November 29, 2018
Is there not something desperately wrong with our Parliamentary system when the Treasury refuses to provide historical figures to a serving MP representing his Constituents? These Treasury officials surely must have a duty to comply, if not, have an ORDER to do so?
Such civil service effrontery goes against the standards of any true democracy.
Even more reason to rid ourselves of these unelected Mandarins who believe they should be running this country and not those elected to do so.
Is it any wonder, therefore, why these faceless people desperately want us to remain under the jackboots of Brussels? Even stooping so low as to provide false scare predictions? “Jackboots” that is to say, the Brussels dictatorial regime which is totally dominated by the unelected and the unaccountable cabal running the EU? ALL Fully aided, controlled and abetted by their fellow Mandarins there.
Just why are these Mandarins allowed to make such decisions in a British democracy?
November 29, 2018
The issue with your method is that it ignores global events. In 1948, there was reconstruction after World War II and the baby boom. Since 1992, weāve had the banking crisis, the greatest financial crisis since the recession of 1929. How about comparing UK growth rate in the two time periods with 1) Switzerland 2) Norway (both non EU) and 3) France 4) Holland (as EU)? That will give us an idea of how much of the change is due to global events, how much is due to the EU, and how much is due to mismanagement by UK political and commercial leaders.
November 30, 2018
Or why not just look at a chart of UK GDP, or a chart of UK GDP growth rate, going back to the post-war period, or perhaps even earlier, and see whether you can spot any marked changes in the pre-existing trends corresponding to the UK joining the EEC, or to the later creation of the Single Market?
Oh, but that has been done on here before, numerous times, and it makes no more difference to ignorant and prejudiced Remoaner opinion than any other facts or arguments put forward; and to repeat it would no doubt provoke complaints about people providing links to back up what they say, we certainly don’t want anything like that … anyway, here is a post from February:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/02/08/negotiating-a-deal/#comment-917919
“Ed, nine days ago I asked you a question, which you havenāt yet answered:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/01/30/there-is-no-evidence-joining-the-single-market-boosted-uk-growth/#comment-915911
āā¦ if this chart of the UK growth rate going back to 1956 had no dates or other indications of time marked on the horizontal axis, or you had no prior knowledge of when the events took place, would you be able to pinpoint when we joined the EEC, or when the EU Single Market was created, on the basis of subsequent improved growth?ā”
Still no answer …
December 1, 2018
Without international comparisons its meaningless.
December 1, 2018
Tosh, it’s the international comparisons which are meaningless. Either we can see the impact on the UK economy of the UK joining the EEC or we can’t see any significant impact, and either we can see the impact on the UK economy of the later creation of the EU Single Market or we can’t see any significant impact; and the clear answer is that we can’t see any significant impact on the UK economy of either event, an answer which is completely irrespective of what may have happened in other countries. That is an irrelevance, introduced by those who will never admit that they have been vastly exaggerating the economic importance of EU membership for decades.
December 2, 2018
Hello Dennis,
I think the single market and the EU have had an effect, but not in any one specific year, just gradually over time. That effect is much smaller than (say) that of World War II, the OPEC oil price shock and the Banking Crisis of 2008. Those need to be taken into account in the comparisons.
I’ll do the comparison myself next time Mr Redwood uses the argument – alas World Bank figures only start in 1961, not 1948.
Reply The EU itself said they whole positive effect over the whole time period of being in the EU single market for the Uk was just plus 1%, but the UK figures show this exaggerates the positive.
BC
November 29, 2018
Watch May at the Commons Liaison Committee today. See if you can spot a straightforward answer amongst the lies and obfuscation.
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/6eaccb9b-e1a3-4298-b307-65356415d112
November 29, 2018
It is difficult to know what to say about 15 year economic forecasts, except to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld ā there are too many known unknowns, and too many unknown unknowns to make accurate long-range forecasts.
Nevertheless, the announcements of forthcoming Armageddon were carefully hedged (see below) – while knowing full well that the media will take the worst case scenario and broadcast it unquestioningly.
Bank of England ā Mark Carney – “These are scenarios not forecasts. They illustrate what could happen not necessarily what is most likely to happen.
“Taken together the scenarios highlight that the impact of Brexit will depend on the direction, magnitude and speed of the effect of reduced openness of the UK economy,” Bank of England governor Mark Carney said.
HM Government Paper – EU Exit ā Long-term Economic Analysis – āNo modelling can completely capture the complex ways in which the UK economy could be affected by exiting the EU, particularly given the unprecedented circumstances of the UK’s departure. While the analysis draws on a robust set of tools and evidence, there is an inherent uncertainty around this type of economic analysis. The results are therefore presented as ranges, and should be interpreted with caution.ā
Project Fear Part 2 (or is it 3) is now underway as we are being manoeuvred towards a stitch-up deal or a second referendum.
Brexiteers urgently need to take back control of the narrative.
November 29, 2018
Surely Mr Carney has exceeded his brief?Who, if anyone, instructed him to speak our in this disgraceful way. This shows the desperation of the powers that be to keep us in the EU. And by the same token, how are the Continental car manufacturers going to fare? There’s the smell of a huge rat somewhere in all of this, and many good people are being deceived. This should be a clear warning to all, as to what is going on!
November 29, 2018
Hi John,
I believe a clean break on WTO terms should have been the way forward immediately after triggering article 50 with negotiations about easing flow over borders followed by preparation around the outcome. For me the Irish border has nothing to do with EU unless we accept we are dealing with the EU border and not that of the republic of Ireland.
This being the case the border is Ireland’s problem, not the UKs.
November 29, 2018
Hi John,
I believe a clean break on WTO terms should have been the way forward immediately after triggering article 50 with negotiations about easing flow over borders followed by preparation around the outcome. For me the Irish border has nothing to do with EU unless we accept we are dealing with the EU border and not that of the republic of Ireland.
This being the case it is Ireland’s choice and so is the border problem.
November 29, 2018
Peter Shore was so right, after just three years of the EEC.
Now we face the very big risk that a majority of MPs in parliament will legislate against ‘no-deal’ – which has to be the very best negotiating option, whether you are pro-remain or pro-leave.
The big risk then, apart from being cast into a very weak negotiating position, or back into the EU (eg if CJEU rules UK can unilaterally revoke Art 50) is that the British public realize that the Establishment has acted not as per the referendum but as per what they want.
November 29, 2018
JRM’s piece in today’s Telegraph seems to be saying that the Ā£39 billion is committed regardless of whatever is agreed and is not subject to the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement.
Who on earth agreed to that? I don’t even think it should be in the Withdrawal Agreement. It should be subject to agreeing a satisfactory trading agreement.
Why are we constantly wrong footed and out manoeuvred by the EU?
We are like a bunch of timid amateurs. I feel ashamed of the UK’s negotiating incompetence.
Trump was right – we should have put a brutal lawyer on the case.
November 29, 2018
The PM, the Chancellor, the Governor of the BoE, the EU funded CBI corporates and the EU funded BBC all believe that preventing the possibility of an 8% fall in GDP is worth losing our freedom, democracy and sovereignty.
Fortunately for me this wasnāt the view of my parentās generation.
November 29, 2018
The ERM issue has nothing to do with the Brexit debate. We were in it for less than 2 years and, as we went in at the wrong rate with already surging inflation, it was always going to fail. Nothing to do with the EU – a home-grown disaster.
November 30, 2018
Wrong.
The EU’s ambition to create a United States of Europe drove them to create their own currency.
And to do it far too quickly and allow nations to swop to the Euro way before they were ready.
The ERM was their creation and it caused huge recession and unemployment.
Just as the Euro has recently for many nations who are locked into this currency.
The ERM and the Euro project symbolises the EU ‘s determination to ignore the hardship created in order to achieve their political ambition.
November 30, 2018
To a large extent that is true. But who made those decisions ? Why, it was the same people who believe we should have joined the EURO. You know the one, the one that has ruined many a nation.
May I ask you to go to YouTube and search for the, Poisoned Chalice. It is a 3 part series and the last part covers the ERM fiasco. Believe me, it is painful watching. The incompetence of those involved, and still around, is staggering.
November 30, 2018
The Bank of England’s forecasts are not absurd but totally inconsistent. Sterling is most unlikely to fall be 25% because markets are already allowing for the possibility of No Deal. Even if it did, you wouldn’t expect output to fall by 8% and unemployment to rise to 7.5%. The whole point of a currency devaluation is to facilitate exports to non-EU countries and to facilitate import substitution, thus facilitating a RISE in output.
Then again take the combination of a 30% fall in house prices, 6% inflation, and base rate at 5.5%. The 6% inflation could result from a 25% fall in sterling, but the Bank’s response should not be to raise base rate and house prices would (alas) be unlikely to fall. Who is in charge of monetary policy, Mr Carney? YOU are – and I assume that you are not totally crazy.
November 30, 2018
I wrote to John Redwood, and was referred to this as an answer. Here’s what I wrote, and you can judge how appropriate or honest an answer it is:
Dear Mr. Redwood,
The Government used to tell us āno deal was better than a bad dealā. Now it is insisting we have to accept a bad deal because no deal would be even worse. Which version of the ātruthā am I supposed to believe?
The Chancellor of the Exchequer now says that *all* forms of Brexit are bad for the United Kingdom, whereas the Prime Minister avoids the question by very carefully stating that only her deal is acceptable. Why should I support anything that is damaging to the country? That would smack of treasonā¦
The Chancellorās source, the Treasury analysis, states that GDP will be lower in 15 years under all Brexit scenarios than it would be with EU membership. And in all cases, national income will be reduced if migration from Europe is reduced from its current levels.
When, I wonder, did the Oath of Fealty become so subverted?
Yours sincerely,
Chris Mitchell
December 1, 2018
Without international comparisons those figures don’t mean much. The first period contained post war reconstruction despite which we fell behind. The second period contains the oil price hike from 2007 to 2014 which slowed growth in all oil importing countries, the UK less so as we still produce some ourselves. The analysis is too superficial to be useful.
Reply Try reading what I said. It was a way of saying the Treasury long term forecasts are ridiculous!
December 1, 2018
Yesterday in the Urgent Question on the latest round of Project Fear Treasury forecasts I asked them to tell us what the growth rate was in the last 25 years before we joined the European Community, and what the growth rate has been in the last 25 years from 1992 when they established the full single market and customs union. It was obvious we grew faster outside the EU than in it, so the Treasury declined to share these actual historical figures.
John, the PER CAPITA figures are more revealing. The Treasury are fond of telling us how much leaving will cost us per person. These ONS figures suggest the introduction of the single market has cost each one of us over Ā£4k in 2017.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihxw/qna