Will the Treasury tell us the cost of belonging to the EU – that is fact not fiction

The Treasury want to know the impact of Brexit so they should go back and compare the growth rates we achieved in the EEC/EU with the growth rates we were experiencing post War before we joined. They would find our growth rate fell in the EU, so in their terms that means there was a big cost to belonging to the EU.

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165 Comments

  1. Roy Grainger
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    The cost argument is spurious anyway. The cost to a middle-class voter of voting for Corbyn in the next election is forecastable and strongly negative but that won’t stop millions of them doing it because they are prepared to bear that cost for assorted other more intangible benefits to society that they foresee. It is the same with Brexit. It is only the Remainers who seem to be absolutely fixated on the purely economic argument – they seem to be prepared to give up anything for money. “No-one ever voted to make themselves poorer” they intone ignoring the fact that millions of Labour voters do exactly that.

    • Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:01 am | Permalink

      It becomes more and more apparent:
      Remainer = good of the individual
      Leaver = good of the country

      • Richard1
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

        People need to stop insulting opponents in this debate

        • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
          Posted November 29, 2018 at 1:59 am | Permalink

          I do agree

      • John Hatfield
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        LJ,
        Remainer = for the good of certain individuals and multinationals. Bad for the ordinary taxpayer.

      • Simon Coleman
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

        That’s what you like to believe but where’s the evidence for either statement, considering all forecasts make the country worse off after Brexit…and Remainers are the people who want to stop it happening?

        • Edward2
          Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

          Simonb
          You are looking at predictions of what Europe and the UK might be like in ten years time.
          If you drill down into the base data being used it is a very dodgy set of statistics.

        • libertarian
          Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

          Simon Coleman

          There is NO such thing as evidence of something that has yet to happen and is in the future .

          If forecasts were of any use what so ever , then the regular forecasters would be billionaires many times over and they’re are not.

    • Hope
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:29 am | Permalink

      JR, May said staying in the customs union and single market would not in effect be leaving. Barnier states Masked to be in a customs union, EU offered May a free trade deal which she rejected. Today we read Owen Patterson saying he was told by a US aid that May rejected a free trade deal with the US!

      It is clear the Deal was about trade to start off with, a deal tha t would be signed in a nano second after 11 pm on 29/03/2019. May has failed to get a trade deal and now seeks to spuriously call her withdrawal agreement the deal!

      Daily Mail caught out by Guido for its front page cover that the Survetion poll was the exact opposite of what the Mail printed. The survey showed the public were overwhelmingly against May’s agreement to remain in the EU. They stated otherwise. Quite disgusting, Mail editor should be hauled before selection committee to explain the fake news and false reporting.

    • Helen Smith
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

      Actually, given that they told us time and again that if we voted Leave we would be poorer, and we still voted Leave, their argument rather falls down. In reality of course we voted to Leave because we can see with our own eyes how the EU impoverishes us.

    • Richard
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

      And in fact UK voters, taxpayers & SMEs will very likely gain a bit from leaving.

      The EU Internal Market (SM)’s associated fall in GDP growth rates:
      • Before Single Market 25 years (1968-1992) : 2.5% ave GDP growth p.a.
      • Since Single Market 25 years (1993-2017) : 2.2% ave GDP growth p.a.
      https://facts4eu.org/news_feb_2018.shtml#sgl

      The reason is EU over-regulation. Economists for Free Trade estimate: “that EU regulation has reduced UK GDP by around 6%; that probably about a third of this can be reversed [without adverse consequence] giving us a projected gain of 2% of GDP, or a growth rate 0.15% per annum faster over the next 15 years” http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/15/the-reasons-the-pm-gives-to-surrender-our-powers-of-self-government-again-over-the-supply-of-goods/#comment-954904

      The EFT model indicates c.+7% on GDP in total, spread over 15 years, mainly from lower UK tariffs with “all households gain directly from prices falling 8%, with the poorest households gaining 15% from both falling prices and the end of mass unskilled immigration”. https://brexitcentral.com/world-trade-deal-brexit-wto-terms-highly-advantageous/ The EFT state their assumptions: https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/From-Project-Fear-to-Project-Prosperity-An-Introduction-15-Aug-17-2.pdf

    • Richard
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

      And even Open Europe (who prefer a high-alignment EEA-style deal) modelled only -0.5% (-o.04% pa over 15 years) for a World Trade deal v Remain https://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/no-deal-the-economic-consequences-and-how-they-could-be-mitigated/ http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181015-No-Deal-Macroeconomic-paper.pdf

      Their assumptions stated on P6-7 & P17-21 seem to (pessimistically) include:
      a) No new RoW FTAs (existing EU FTAs are rolled over) (P6&20)
      b) Keeping EU over-regulation (only some rules of origin compliance saving)
      c) Ignored the saving from ending UK’s net payment of £12Bn pa (+ other payments to the EU funding iceberg http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/20/how-much-money-do-we-save-when-we-leave-the-eu/#comment-941877 ) (see OE website summary)

      Those 3 assumptions would seem to explain why they differ from the EFT model.

    • Richard
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

      The EFT and Open Europe analyses are long term.
      Happily our trade deficit with the EU should also provide a lot of short-term economic protection: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/26/does-the-eu-favour-no-deal/#comment-937188

      The economist Andrew Lilico analysed short-term impacts , concluding:
      “this would be after the first few weeks of drop-off in GDP associated with no-deal disruption. But it would be more than simple catch-up from disruption. It is a reflection of the basic dilemma that net importing countries always face. Free trade is good for economies over the medium to long term, but if a country is a net importer then it tends to gain output, in the short-term, in protectionist scenarios with greater trade barriers. There is no good reason to believe that this long-established basic economic truth should not be expected to apply to the UK in the case of Brexit as well.” https://brexitcentral.com/uk-economy-grow-faster-short-term-no-brexit-deal/

    • Mark B
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 9:22 am | Permalink

      Great post !

      Our kind host has pointed out here many times that the ‘old’ traditional parties have been cruelly punished by the electorate on the continent. Even here the Tories (ERM) have had to spend over a decade and half in the wilderness before being elected to office (not power) again. MP’s need to be reminded of this.

  2. sm
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    Oh dear, John, you forgot to factor in the incredible benefit to Newmania’s and Andy’s children, who were able to travel unhindered and get a few weeks’ holiday work in bars.

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

      sm

      Look on Guido’s site, looks like they have not included a lot of benefits at all in their calculations.

      How can a so called independent Organisation get the actual basis of it all so wrong.

      It can only be deliberate, in order to fix the figures for a spurious argument.

  3. Peter
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    The Treasury forecast will probably be endorsed by the BBC ‘reality checker’, Chris Morris, in due course. So that’s alright then.

    It may be extremely difficult, but a less reactive approach explaining the benefits of WTO might be helpful in the next few weeks. Put ‘cliff edge’ assumptions under scrutiny. Make pundits justify their doom laden descriptions.

    • Bob
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:35 am | Permalink

      @Peter
      BBC R4 were parroting the Daily Mail’s shameless misrepresentation of the Survation poll about May’s deal. The BBC used to sneeringly dismiss the DM as a trashy tabloid, but not any more!

      I suspect they’ll be increasing their subscription to the paper now, perhaps in line with the number of copies of the Guardian they buy every day.

      The disgraceful BBC are trying to end free TV Licences for over 75s.
      They have no shame

    • Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:05 am | Permalink

      You’re right, Peter. The Leave camp rested on its laurels when it won.
      Since then it’s been only reactive, whereas the Remain camp has been pro-active, even though it lost, and that SHOULD have been the end of it.

      But it’s not too late to be pro-active, even now. We voted OUT.

      • Al
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

        There are still grassroots active for Leave, but general organisation seems to be a problem e.g. this picked up over 10,000 signatures in its first couple of days (and needs more):

        https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963/

        Remain, on the other hand, has the major media pushing their views, making reaching supporters far easier.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:24 am | Permalink

      The unparalleled benefit of WTO is that the WTO treaties already exist, are already in force, and already bind the EU and all the other member states.

      So we would not have to plead with the EU, including the EU Parliament, and then with a slew of national and regional parliaments across the EU, to grant us a special trade treaty, which despite all her brazen lies would still be the case under her “jam tomorrow” political declaration which may be read here:

      https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759021/25_November_Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_framework_for_the_future_relationship_between_the_European_Union_and_the_United_Kingdom__.pdf

      That is why I said a year ago:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/11/26/the-irish-border-with-northern-ireland/#comment-903216

      “So we should now say that rather than kowtow to the stupid destructive intransigence of the EU we will fall back on WTO trade rules and only seek agreements on the practical or technical aspects of continuing trade.”

      But with the supporting advice of her favourite civil servant Theresa May chose to take a different course and lead us into the present trap.

    • Jagman84
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

      WTO is the cliff-edge… But only to the dreams of the cultural Marxists who wish to rule over us without the need to refer to the ballot box. The PM included. Maybe that’s why she appears immune to the potential electoral damage caused by her agreement. It will make elections pointless in the UK. It appears to be the case at present.

    • John Hatfield
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

      How Peter? The establishment holds the media.

  4. DUNCAN
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    The Treasury is little more than an arm of the EU. It is time we install a vehemently Eurosceptic leader who reduce EU influence to a minimum in all areas of British public life

    If belonging to the EU was a panacea for all economic ills then Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and indeed France would be economically productive, self-financing nations. They aren’t. In fact one could argue they’re all dependent on the German taxpayer for survival

    Remove the productivity of the German economy and its workforce from the EU construct and the whole pack of crappy cards would come crashing down

    Macron’s desperation to share sovereign risk with the German taxpayer is an indication of the cowardice of the man that he’d rather focus on Franco-EU (Germany) matters rather than confront the French unions at home

    Vote against the WA. Bring down this EU nobbled government. Depose May. And let’s deliver the wishes of the moral majority (52%)

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:00 am | Permalink

      Yes, correct

  5. Richard1
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    Imagine a business with sales of 100 making a board presentation seeking adoption of a plan projecting sales in 15 years of 200 (laughter and ridicule would interrupt proceedings already at this point). Then saying “if we do such and such there will be these advantages but sales will only be 197 in 2033”. The management would be out on their ear.

  6. Hope
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    According to Reports The forecasts are based on Chequers plan which no longer exists. Secondly, 28 non disclosure agreements (NDA) have been imposed by government departments to businesses to prevent them discussing the dreadful May agreement. May recently claimed NDA were unethical! There is no bounds to her underhand behaviour. You cannot believe anything she says.

  7. JOHN FINN
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    John

    I was playing around with UK GDP per capita growth figures (ONS) yesterday and calculated the growth rates between (i) 1968-92 and (ii) 1993-2017 (i.e. the two 25 year periods before and after the introduction of the EU single market). The rates werre

    1968-1992: 72% (2.2% per annum)
    1993-2017 51% (1.7% per annum)

    So, using the remainer methodology and logic, the single market has made each of us £4171 poorer in 2017.

    The only difference between my analysis and others is that I’ve used ACTUAL data rather than speculative assumptions. I’ve also used a more robust longer time period rather than the usual cherry-picked fluctuations that remain researchers prefer.

    Reply Yes, exactly, thanks for those numbers

    • a-tracy
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:22 am | Permalink

      These are the facts that are required and if our tv news reporters had anything about them would have been known by now.

    • Chris Maughan
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

      John Finn … thanks for the data analysis.
      We should also keep in mind that during the 1970’s the UK was referred to as the sick man of Europe as we were seen to be struggling. There were numerous strikes and and much upheaval as workers pushed for better pay.
      Having overcome these problems, our illness appears to have deteriorated after we joint the single market.
      It reinforces Dr Redwood’s point beautifully.

      • Mark B
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 9:40 am | Permalink

        The ‘illness’ as you call it deteriorated once we got a strong and effective government who introduced laws preventing, Secondary Picketing and introduced secret ballots on strike action. This gave management the upper-hand when dealing with them. Think Wapping and the print workers.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

      Very interesting, taking figure from here – https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyp/pn2

      And creating a moving average since 1950 there is certainly a downwards trend to 2017.

      Especially from 1973 through to 1983, now remind me what happened then?

    • acorn
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

      GDP per head is actually about £6,000 per head short of where it should be. Nothing to do with the EU; everything to do with eight years of Conservative austerity. This chart tells the GDP per head story from 1955. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihxt/pn2

      • Edward2
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

        We are where are.
        Still better off than we were a few years ago.
        Your statistics claim we might have been even better off had we done different things.
        It is all guesswork.

      • libertarian
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

        acorn

        Nothing to do with “austerity” all to do with high taxes, duties and the huge regulatory burden placed on business

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted November 30, 2018 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

        The noticeable blip on that chart started in Q1 2008 under Labour.

        I’ve no idea where you find a £6000 shortfall, not from that chart.

        • acorn
          Posted December 2, 2018 at 10:52 am | Permalink

          Polynomial Linear Regression on pre 2007 data points.

          • libertarian
            Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

            acorn

            Of course, thats exactly how the real world of buying, selling, saving and spending works….. ( the dots are just for you) NOT

  8. Oliver
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Normally you talk sense, but ignoring the positive effect of post war reconstruction on gdp strikes me as a little daft?

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:34 am | Permalink

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/27/more-false-forecasts/#comment-976607

      “Background noise apart, UK GNP since 1949 has grown at about 2.5 per cent per annum, irrespective of the party in office, regardless of geopolitical events”

      Which is a bit odd, but nonetheless true.

    • JOHN FINN
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

      Normally you talk sense, but ignoring the positive effect of post war reconstruction on gdp strikes me as a little daft?

      In 1968? The post war boom had fizzled put by then. That was the whole point of us trying gain access to the EU. 1968 represents the start point of the period. The period itself mainly encapsulates the 1970s and 1980s.

    • LucasH
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

      Oliver..No not daft! just the usual politician’s spin that we have come to expect

      Just all a part of the latest fake news swirling about- it seems you can now say anything you like, truth or lies, and put it out there with no chance of comeback or repercussions..a la Trump..a la Farage and Boris or Gove when it suits.

      • libertarian
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

        LucasH

        Or you could just try to understand some basic facts

    • mancunius
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

      In which case the German, French and other continental figures for post-war GDP growth – so often used as UK comparators – should be more heavily discounted as the postwar reconstruction needed in those countries was far greater.

  9. Alan Jutson
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    As usual John it will be junk in, junk out.

    When has a Treasury forecast been anywhere near right in the last couple of decades, they always seem to forget to include or exclude something important.
    They tend to make the programme fit the wanted result, and thus inputs are selected accordingly.

    • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:01 am | Permalink

      Yeah

  10. Len Grinds
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    You would be right if membership of the EU were the only factor that affected economic performance. But that is obvious nonsense. So your comment is economically and staistically illiterate

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

      Len Grinds

      So are you going to enlighten us with your thoughts on what the other factors are ?

  11. acorn
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    The post-war boost was down to good old socialist spending. That was crippled by the birth of Friedman “monetarism”. Capital wanted a bigger share of the national pie; workers were getting far too much of it for their own good.

    Then Thatcher turned up. The gift that kept on giving to Capital, at knocked down prices.

    • Edward2
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

      At least it killed double figure inflation.
      The real destroyer of standards of living for the less well off.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

      acorn

      Oh my word ….socialists huh…. Oh and you an MMT man too laughing out loud at you

      THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A NATIONAL PIE

      We DO NOT have a zero sum economy

      • acorn
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 9:35 am | Permalink

        The national pie is the GNI (Gross National Income). As always, the rest of your comments are uncoupled random phrases. BTW, what does four full-stops mean before and after a phrase huh?

        • libertarian
          Posted November 30, 2018 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

          acorn

          As someone who tried to tell me South Koreans are French I wouldnt try to be too pedantic if I were you. What does huh mean ? I separate things out for you as you seem to struggle with very simple concepts

          I’ll explain again once more

          THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A NATIONAL PIE

          GNI is NOT a fixed sum that is divided up. So you not for the first time are totally wrong.

          I think you’d be better off trying to find a job

  12. ian wragg
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    So only the negative treasury report is to be published, not the Attorney Generals advice or the Immigration white paper.
    Methinks the lady has a very guilty secret which she is intent on hiding from us.

    • Chris Maughan
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

      As Mrs May tries to win over support, she may alienate a large number by hiding pertinent information from Parliament.
      To win support she needs to win their trust. She is doing the opposite.

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

      I’d say an open secret – She is deliberately deceiving us with one sided information.

      Even my Tory MP who supports her through thick and thin will vote against her deal.

  13. agricola
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Whatever path of separation from the EUis taken it will be ten years before the full effect is known. To forcast with so many uncontrollable inputs is fantasy lala land. This exercise will be “Support Mrs May’s disasterous negotiation”. It will have no more credibility than all their other remain propaganda. The long term financial effect will be down to the entrepreneurial talents of robust outgoing Brits, and the tax regime the government set for them.

    • Chris Maughan
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

      I agree.
      We often have to revise year end projections never mind those for a 10-15 years hence.
      Even Germany’s Q3 results (-0.2% GDP) were wrongly forecast just months before they were announced.

  14. davies
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    For leaving

    Have they factored in the approx 7% GDP EU regulatory compliance costs some of which we might be able to claw back after leaving with no withdrawal agreement?

    Have they considered that the EU cannot afford to damage its biggest market were they to affect trade?

    Have they modelled any outcomes if an EU exit did affect trade and we reduced our £95PA goods deficit to them and increased our industrial/manufuctaring capacity to fill the gap – that sounds like a win win to me.

    Have they modelled any positive outcomes for potential improved trade with many of the 200 odd countries which are not in the EU

    For Staying

    Have they factored in the likely loss of the annual rebate (staying in) which was banded around a couple of years ago then hushed up?

    Have they made any assumptions on the risky outcomes as a result of the huge Target 2 balances – I don’t what or how but something is going to break at some point whether the UK is in or out of the EU.

    Have they made any assesment on future economic performance if we changed our minds then joined the Euro?

    Lastly I wonder if anyone from government actually read blogs such as this?

    • davies
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

      sorry about the bold, i missed the

      • Bryan Harris
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

        No apology necessary – Adds emphasis

        • Mitchel
          Posted November 29, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

          er,no,it hurts the eyes-I will frequently skip a mass of embolded text-even more so if it’s embolded and in capitals!

    • Iain Moore
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

      Have they modeled the change in the political culture , where rather than having a laissez faire attitude of leaving it all to the EU, and instead our politicians having a more proactive interest in our businesses and economy and ensuring that we have the appropriate legislation to ensure growth. At least making sure we never again have the situation when Port Talbot was facing closure because of high energy prices that George Osborne blamed on EU policy, and the EU said nothing to do with us.

    • Helena
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

      Yes, I think the EU has considered all of this. And has concluded that whatever pain it suffers is tiny compared to the harm done to the UK which, after Brexit and most of all after no deal, is losing frictionless access to 46% of its exports markets. That is why the EU has conceded nothing. That is why the UK has conceded everything. Because the bottom line is that Brexit is a very bad idea

      • Edward2
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 12:28 am | Permalink

        You keep saying we will lose all our current trade with Europe after we leave the EU .
        Ridiculous

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:01 am | Permalink

        OK!

      • libertarian
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 8:42 am | Permalink

        Helena

        Oh dear, what is it with remainers and their inability to understand the world we live in? Maybe its because you have no experience of actually doing the things you like to pontificate about.

        If you seriously think no trade will happen with EU countries after a “no deal ” Brexit you are deluded. Unless you think that Europeans are going to cease buying mobile phones, music albums, Scotch whiskey, Cancer Scanners etc etc

        Oh and trade is pretty much frictionless EVERY WHERE in the world

        Its called digital technology and you DO NOT need an unelected , supranational government to impose it on people

      • davies
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

        Frictionless access?

        – Do EU exporters not need to complete intrastat forms now?

        – Are you telling me there are no checks of any kind now?

        – Am I right in reading that the average wait at a Port is 6 mintues?

        – Do our Customs & Excise authorities not know when a shipment is leaving Hong Kong and when it is due to arrive?

        I read somewhere there have been 70 Operation Stacks in the last 20 years, that sounds like one every 3-4 months.

        Also having driven around the M20/M25 many times I have often been stuck a lot longer than the 6 mintues at a Port.

        Where you may have a point is that the government have spent so long playing stupid games the last 2 1/2 years that the customs processes needed to handle EU transactions through the CHIEF system are not ready.

        • libertarian
          Posted November 30, 2018 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

          davies

          Exactly right on all counts

          With regard to operation stack , at no time did any CEO of any company go on TV, Radio or Press and complain that it was ruining their Just In Time Systems . They complained about delays obviously

          For those that dont know Operation Stack has been in operation for 20 years and happens most years. The M20 is closed for long stretches and is used to park lorries.

          In 2015 Operation Stack was implemented for nearly 35 consecutive days. THIRTY FIVE DAYS delay….. not a mention of JIT problems

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

      To most of your questions: they may have but what is the problem?

      – 7% regulatory compliance cots? Does not sound like a genuine problem. Fake news.
      -of course thge EU can damage the Uk. But it is a civilized club so it will only do so if provoked
      -your next question is probably not serious. It requires a “we” that does not exist, according to Mrs Thatcher
      -Trade with the 200+ whatever? Yes they have and it is insignificant
      -Likely loss of rebate? Not sure, rounding error anyway
      -Target 2 is an issue only for EUR countries. Anyway it is not an issue because one cannot leave the EUR
      -Assessment of what would happen after joining EUR. Not to my knowledge
      – Reading this blog? I do. TM. Cheers!

      • davies
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

        Thankyou Rien

        – 7% is the effect of bolting on a Common Law system to the European one – I didnt say it was a problem more something to look at

        – Given the perilous state of the Eurozone and the Target 2 balances I think any disruption to trade would be very silly

        – trade with the 200, that means most of the world not in the EU. A good starting point is FTA in services, the EU has not been very helpful there

  15. Matthew MacKenzie
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    If a Treasury official presented such a comparison as a serious cost-benefit analysis of the UK’s EU membership, I suspect he or she would soon be looking for another position. Or at least I hope so.

  16. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    It may be worth recalling some of the things Theresa May said back in August when she was on her African trip:

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-rebukes-chancellors-no-deal-brexit-assessment-11484006

    “… the PM refused to endorse Philip Hammond’s position, stating that the figures he quoted were out of date.”

    Mrs May said: “First of all, the chancellor was talking about a set of figures that I think came out in January.

    “I think when they came out I was very clear on a previous trip that those figures were a work in progress at that particular time.””

    Presumably they have now been brought up to date and so we now have more precise forecasts for 2033 … but get this:

    “”I’ve said right from the beginning that no deal is better than a bad deal,” she said.”

  17. nhsgp
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Post the graphs

  18. Stred
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    The dishonesty of the government’s case for the capitulation was brought home last night when I heard that the research projects for a scientist friend had been stopped, due to lack of funding. The total horlicks involves paying the EU vast amounts but they no longer give some of it back.

    During the referendum campaign, the idea was to spend some of the contribution to the EU on our own scientific research or on joint projects. Now the EU is refusing to allow participation in these, while we still pay and our research is culled. You couldn’t make it up.

    While May is claiming that her deal stops paying large amounts of money to the EU and she now has enough to pay for the NHS, to make the gross figure on the bus come true. She is borrowing the money and will also be borrowing the £50bn+ for the promise to discuss a trade deal. The woman and her team must think we are very very stupid.

  19. a-tracy
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    John,

    1. Is the austerity policy followed by George Osborne an EU fiscal policy requirement from Maastrict or not? I was under the impression from GO at the time that the EU rules (stability and growth pact) he followed after the 2010 election was due to a 3% of GDP rule on deficit and public debt 60% because the Labour boom and bust crash broke us – (entirely predictable when they allowed so many unchecked, unregulated mortgages, with unqualified new mortgage brokers making a killing selling big interest-only mortgages to people who couldn’t afford them and didn’t pay)?

    2. If they weren’t EU rules didn’t the IMF tie GO into sorting this out in line with their EU Eurozone rules? You know what us Brits are like following all the rules, unlike France, Greece, Austria, Portugal, Spain, Italy who just ignore them. They also seem to get away with fines, whereas every time the UK stepped out of line it seemed if our press could be believed that we were fined left, right and centre and just paid up.

  20. Ron Olden
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    Today Hammond said that owing to ‘impediments to trade’, the economy will be ‘1-2% smaller’ in 15 years time than it WOULD HAVE BEEN had we stayed in.

    I see that as an extremely benign outcome given that the population will be at least a similar amount smaller than it would have been had we kept Freedom of Movement, and that the missing people will be the least skilled lowest contributors.

    These forecasts don’t allow for any of the likely rises in productivity arising from a much tighter supply of low paid, low skilled, imported labour.

    No one can have any idea what the exact statistical economic ‘impact of Brexit’ will be, and we likely never will.

    We have no idea whether the EU will exist in its’ present form in 15 years time, what its’ external trade arrangements will be, or would have been had we stayed in, and what the positive impact of whatever Trade Deals we get with the Rest of the World will be.

    Hammond’s forecasts assume none whatsoever.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 30, 2018 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

      Yeah, and I can well imagine if that actually happened then in 2033 there would be weeping and gnashing of teeth and people would be saying to each other “If only we had stopped in the EU our economy would now be 1-2% bigger than it is!”.

  21. BlakeB
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    As has been said before many times- the past is no guarantee for the future when it comes to economic well being- we are never going to be able to compare like with like- Apples and Oranges- For instance when I was growing up in the 1950’s 1960’s you might say that I was poor because I only had use of and outside toilet, but back then I never regarded myself as poor. Today I live in a house with three indoor toilets but don’t regard myself as particularly well off, although I know I am, it’s just I never think about it.

    Coming through the various airports seaports back in the 1950’s 1960’s we were hassled a lot by over officious Customs and Immigration people..if you bought something abroad like a ring or a watch or clothes of any sort they would want to know everything, the cost, where we bought it and did we have a receipt. It was really OTT stuff. Then one night in the 1970’s all of that changed, I came in from the continent to a UK regional airport at ten o’clock at night to be me by No Customs, No Immigration, No police, Nothing- and it was then that I thought to myself this European thing has the greatest thing ever- and on this I have never changed my mind

    • David Price
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 8:19 am | Permalink

      Very happy for you but have you ever come back in to the UK from a non-UK country, the immigration part is the same (show your passport) and I have never had any hassle on the customs side coming from USA, Canada or Hong Kong.

      Low hassle travel to and from low-risk EU countries is not worth the billions the UK must pay to the EU nor the evisceration of our commerce by their companies nor the unfettered control they have over our lives, commerce and relationships with the rest of the world.

    • Mark B
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 10:20 am | Permalink

      I am glad it worked out for you. But for 17.4 million of us, it didn’t.

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted November 30, 2018 at 7:44 am | Permalink

      BlakeB

      Unfortunately it is not just the so called good people who have all of the correct paperwork who you suggest walk through immigration and customs without checks is it. Although funnily enough I have always had to show my passport on exit and re-entry to the UK when arriving back even from EU areas.

  22. VotedOut
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    People are talking about how the PM’s deal secures jobs and the economy.

    This assumes that everything will remain the same if we stay aligned with the EU. But, the EU has stated it will itself change and under the PM’s deal we will be tied to that change.

    Therefore, it is not possible to say accepting the MP’s deal is good for the economy and jobs, because we don’t know that.

    We do know that making our own decisions via a system we have used for centuries has been good for jobs and the economy.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

      Voted out

      Right now we dont need any more jobs !!! There are 810,000 unfilled vacancies and my research indicates another 1.2 million new jobs being created over the next 2-3 years

      • a-tracy
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

        1.2m sounds good esp. if full time?
        What are the skills required to fill them?

        • libertarian
          Posted November 29, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

          a-tracy

          Yes full time and the skills shortages are in STEM, Digital, Healthcare, Hospitality, Catering, medicine , and especially construction

          One of the reasons behind the job booms is the fact that very very many people DO NOT want full time work, they want flexibility hence Gig economy , ZHC, part time , job share etc

          • a-tracy
            Posted November 30, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

            I know I’ve had plenty of people wanting to move from full-time to part-time to suit their circumstances especially those that want to semi-retire. Many of them also CHOOSE by asking me if they can have zero hours so they can take the whole summer off, or whatever extra holiday times they want. I also have students that want hours to suit their studies and full flexibility, the problem with this is that the other part of their job is then only available part-time and is sometimes difficult to recruit for especially if it is the late afternoon, evening part of the shift, everyone wants mornings.

            How many young men are unemployed in London hotspots for construction jobs and training in construction, why aren’t these companies training them up and giving them worthwhile work? Many builders in my family and friends groups train up their own construction workers and scaffolders. I’m not surprised people don’t want to start their careers in Healthcare all we hear is nurses in food banks, but I know many nurses on extremely good money and perks for three days work per week.

          • libertarian
            Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

            a-tracy

            I agree on you points

            I am working alongside the Construction Industry Training Board touring schools trying to encourage young people to take up construction apprenticeships and training courses. Its really really hard to fill apprenticeships though even though the earnings of an apprentice are now greater than a graduate and level 6/7 apprenticeships also earn a degree

  23. ukretired123
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Theresa Foggy-May or Muddled-May, hasn’t got a clue either and is now in May-Day mode having lost the plot and painted us into a corner.
    The Treasury is full of dry statistics and suffers from paralysis of analysis except when dreaming up worst-case scenarios to justify their value to their political masters and PMs who have had no real world experience since the grocers daughter unfortunately.

  24. Tad Davison
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    We need you at the treasury John, somebody who speaks up for Britain!

    Hammond sits there on the front bench looking smug, almost contemptuous of the rest of us with his ‘I know what is best’ attitude.

    Maybe he needs to remember he is an elected representative whose duty it is to do what is in the broader interests of the nation, not look after the narrow interests of the big corporations.

    Tad

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

      Tad

      Hammond is totally dumb

      His self employed tax clawback is going the same way as dementia tax, staircase tax, bedroom tax etc etc . He has had to issue an apology for stating it was due to tax evasion ( a criminal offence) when it was perfectly legitimate tax avoidance . The man is a grade A buffoon

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

      Hammond just gives use ever higher taxes highest for 40 years and endless government waste plus green crap and dire public services too . Replacing him and avoiding Corbyn would be a massive economic boost for the UK. Get some low tax vision going.

  25. hans christian ivers
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

    JR.

    The growth rates throughout Europe fell after the significant rebuilding and investments in re-industrialisation and significant infrastructure in Europe in the 1950,s and 60s.

    This has very little to do with the Eu, but is much more linked to the oil crisis and structural changes both in the UK and throughout Europe during both 70 and 80;s.

    I am sorry your hypothesis does not carry itself very well in the broader context and you have not proven the link with the EU

  26. Andy
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 2:06 pm | Permalink

    These forecasts cover a 15 year period.

    In 15 years my son will be 21 and will, hopefully, be towards them end of his time at university and will be looking for work.

    My daughter will be 25 and will be in her first job. They have decades of lower growth to look forward to.

    Where will prominent Brexiteers be in 15 year? Lord Lawson will be 101. Bill Cash will be 93. Norman Lamont will be 91. Iain Duncan Smith will be 81. Christopher Chope will be 86. David Davis will be 85. David Amess will be 81. Nadine Dorris is 76. Farage and Johnson will be 70. Kate Hoey will be 87. Sammy Wilson will be 80. I could go on.

    Life expectancy for men is 79 and 82 for women.

    These pensioners are literally imposing a poverty on our children which will not affect them.

    • Maybot
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

      These pensioners represent ME and I’m nowhere near pensionable age.

      • CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:02 am | Permalink

        O

    • Edward2
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

      What the predictions actually say is that growth may be msrginally less than it might have been.
      So your kids will still be much better off but maybe a tiny bit less well off.
      Maybe.

    • margaret howard
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      BRILLIANT

    • Richard1
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

      What is the point of these posts? All sorts of people of all ages and classes voted in both directions. A smallish majority overall for leave. We do not know what will happen over 15 years. A distinct possibility is a much freer trading UK with enhanced links to faster growing areas of the world, while the EU continues relentless integration to make the euro work, with consequent sclerosis and the rise of extremists as national elections become increasingly irrelevant. And all against a background of potentially frightening levels of uncontrolled migration. Your children might be very relieved to be out of it.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      If you can tell us exactly what jobs your kids will be doing then , I might believe you.

      In 15 years time I will still be running my successful businesses and your kids will probably be trying to get a job working for me

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted December 1, 2018 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        Libertarian

        Stop lecturing it is not suitable not even for you

        • libertarian
          Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

          hans

          Either contribute something or retire

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 12:25 am | Permalink

      Andy, just right for conscription into an EU army then. If the UK does well, which is just as likely, then they might thank us.

  27. Richard1
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    The relevant comparison surely is relative growth rates to other countries over the same period? All growth rates were higher immediately post war due to recovery.

    I would like to see the underlying assumptions. The problem seems to be all these Treasury models assume brexit reduces trade with the EU – under Brino less than WTO which is why Brino looks better to them. But they don’t assume any potential increases elsewhere. What if we join TPP and NAFTA & the Australia-NZ deal and maybe even get a deal with the US, and cut tariffs on all items not produced in the UK to zero? What then?

  28. Original Richard
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    If any leave voters were going to be swayed by Project Fear it would have been when it was used for the first time at the referendum and I’m sure that leave would have won by a greater margin if it were not for the dire forecasts from the PM, the Chancellor, the Governor of the BoE, the IMF, the OECD, the Treasury, the CBI, the BBC, the banks, the corporates, the POTUS, the Archbishop of Canterbury etc. etc..

    The warnings were intense, persuasive and incessant.

    However, a majority still decided that freedom was more important than the economy.

    Since these dire forecasts did not come to pass I think Project Fear this time will have little effect.

  29. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Hot of the press from the Department for Exiting the EU:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759759/EU_Exit_Taking_back_control_of_our_borders_money_and_laws_while_protecting_our_economy_security_and_Union.pdf

    “The Brexit deal we have reached with the EU delivers on the referendum result, and is comprised of two components: the Withdrawal Agreement setting the terms of our exit; and a political declaration on the future relationship that will be turned into legal text after the UK leaves the EU.”

    So exactly how will that be done?

    Will it just involve expert lawyers going through the agreement line by line, perhaps tightening up the language, putting in some standard legal terminology, clarifying any points where the meaning is a bit doubtful, and removing any ambiguities and potential conflicts, so the agreement will be legally water-tight?

    In which case please could we have an illustration?

    Just as an example to help understanding, please could those lawyers do that meticulous tidying-up job on this paragraph, and do it now before the Commons votes:

    “4. The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms. It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom.”

    Well, no, of course even if the lawyers were already hired and ready to get on with the job they could not do it yet, because as stated later in today’s propaganda:

    “In the period before we leave the EU on 29 March next year, the UK and the EU will engage in preparatory organisational work, to ensure formal talks on developing the legal
    agreements required to give effect to the future relationship can begin straight away and progress swiftly.”

    So the legal agreements will be the subject of talks, or as admitted in the next paragraph NONE OF THIS IS SETTLED, IT IS ALL SUBJECT TO NEGOTIATION.

    “Immediately following the UK’s departure, formal negotiations to give the future relationship legal form will begin. The Brexit deal will guide these talks, providing instructions to both negotiating teams to get the relationship ready by the end of 2020.”

    So in what respect are we now any further forward than on June 24th 2016?

    What a bunch of despicable liars we have in our government, it is utterly shameful.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

      I very rarely agree with anything Jeremy Corbyn says, but today he was spot on with this comment:

      “The Government Economic Service forecasts published today are actually meaningless, because there is no actual deal to model, just a 26-page wishlist.”

  30. den
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    We will never ever get the true facts from the Treasury as long as the Establishment is in control. They deliberately conceal the truth because the truth will hurt their cause and render their prediction null and void.
    I trust a new Leader will have a reshuffle of the Remainers running ALL Government Departments at present. Only then will there be a sense of democracy returning to OUR Country.
    Anyone who believes in the EU does not believe in democracy.

  31. Mark B
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    Good afternoon.

    Peter Shaw in the 1975 Oxford debate (see YouTube) stated much this fact.

    But if you add up all our contributions and fines I am sure one could come to a pretty sizable figure. Plus, when the EU give a grant, the member country in which that grant is given has to make an equal contribution. So in fact the EU costs us even more than the headline figures !

  32. John Hatfield
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    Excellent factual article written by Professor David Blake on Brexit Central, entitled:
    “Was the Withdrawal Agreement drafted by civil servants seeking to make remaining in the EU look attractive?

  33. Iain Gill
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    No northern trains on any Saturday in December, apparently a strike.

    Train up some non union drivers.

    • 37/6
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

      Better still. Train up lots of young male drivers with children and big mortgages.

      • Original Richard
        Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

        Better still, start developing driverless trains.

        • 37/6
          Posted November 29, 2018 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

          Already done.

          It’s the infrastructure that’s the problem.

  34. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    We really have come to a sorry situation with Mrs May spouting her uncorroborated mantra ad nauseam and Hammond and other cabinet ministers spouting utter tosh about the future of the economy about which they have no real idea other than to frighten people into their thinking. Meanwhile, the legal advice from the Attorney General will not be published in full despite Parliament requesting it and the government previously acquiescing to that request.
    The only conclusion is that it doesn’t help Mrs May’s case. Our democracy is being treated with contempt – when did PM May become Dictator May and on whose authority?

  35. oldtimer
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    Ms Truss was on WATO and asked about the forecasts. She said it was trade specific and did not take into account other policy measures the government might take in the future. That makes the forecasts meaningless. Policies on tax, spending, financing and other issues need to be adapted to the circumstances in which they are made. They will differ between membership of a customs union or as a free trader. As others have said no one has a clue what is going to happen in fifteen months time let alone fifteen years time.

    I was disappointed to hear her all too ready to spout the May mantra that her deal delivers Brexit. Previously I had assumed she was one of the more sensible Ministers. Evidently I was wrong – and shocked!

  36. oldtimer
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
  37. Little Englander
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Off Topic: serious question Mr Redwood which is: why do we have to wait until 11th Dec for Parliament to vote on the Ollie/EU Agreement? It ALWAYS appears that there is delay after delay in this whole Brexit process – feels like the whole Political fraternity sits around in the ‘Slug & Toad’ cafe over there and over here ‘mulling over’ what to do next. ‘Work smart not hard’ for heaven’s sake and get on with it.

  38. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    AMONG THE BELIEVERS
    May I suggest this as a new title for this website?
    After all, BOE, UK government, IMF, CBI, EEF, etc. etc. all have a different idea about the effects of a no-deal Brexit, and don’t subscribe to the wholly optimistic scenario put forward here without any thought for worst case scenarios.
    As a Dutchman living in the Netherlands, my main interest will be that my country be prepared for any eventuality. Still, I don’t wish for my extensive family in the UK to suffer.

  39. Simon Coleman
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    We know what we pay to the EU. What is being measured here is impact from No deal. Impact is what we need to make a comparison between present and future conditions. A comparison should indicate the best way forward. Why won’t you for once actually address the question that will affect all of us – the impact? All your posts do is whip up even greater rage among your already apoplectic supporters.

    • Edward2
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

      There is no rage.
      Mainly it comes from remainer extremists.
      The impact is just a prediction.
      By organisations that have poor track records.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

      Simon coleman

      Come on then. I challenge you. Pick one area of business and explain what impact it will have trading under WTO terms in the future and why that is different to now.

      • Newmania
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

        Banking Insurance Law Education Motor Manufacturing ( all manufacturing ) Sheep farming …most farming Pharmaceuticals any sort of business requiring friction free borders money movement easy to and fro of personnel
        Pretty much everything really

        Hairdressers should be ok

        • Edward2
          Posted November 30, 2018 at 8:22 am | Permalink

          You have just randoly listed a few business areas.
          Nothing from you as to why trading using WTO type rules would negatively impact them.

        • libertarian
          Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

          Newmania

          a list of industries is of no use explain why

          Only 6% of business do any business with the EU

          So you dont waste your time

          All the Banks big insurance companies and big law firms already have offices in European locations, so nil impact . Also MiFiD2

          Small insurance brokerages, pensions advisors and law firms do no work of any real amount in Europe. If they do, all they have to do ( as my accountants and pensions advisor does now is belong to a EU wide network)

          I run a small Pharma company, i export to Spain and France It won’t cause me any problems

          There is no such thing as totally friction free export, however digital technology has now made exporting ANYWHERE in the world as friction free as the EU

  40. Nicholas Murphy
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    It looks like we are going to have to wait thirty years or so before we get to the bottom of the great betrayal of the referendum result.

  41. Denis Cooper
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Now Mark Carney has stuck his oar in:

    http://www.cityam.com/269862/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-could-boost-uk-economy-predicts

    “A no-deal Brexit would cause the UK economy to fall an unprecedented eight per cent in a single year, the Bank of England warned today … ”

    So leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement would create a worse economic shock than anything that has ever hit this country before …

    What, even worse than the one that pushed us straight into recession after we had ignored Mark Carney’s advice and voted to leave the EU?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448

    “Brexit vote may spark recession, Mark Carney warns”

  42. ian
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    Bank of England,!st quarter of 2019, if no deal, unemployment 7.5% inflation 6.5%, H property price down 30%, C property prices down 48% and pound down over 20%, all this three months time, I would say that BOE and the treasury with bankers have got their work cut out there to achieve that for the people and businesses, I not saying that they won’t be able to achieve it, I am just saying it would be a lot of hard work for them every day, going into work every day push everything down to get to their goal for them and the government to prove a point.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

      To reach 7.5 % unemployment more than 900,000 people would need to lose their jobs and no new jobs could be created. That is laughably stupid

      • Al
        Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

        **To reach 7.5 % unemployment more than 900,000 people would need to lose their jobs and no new jobs could be created. That is laughably stupid**

        Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics…

        • libertarian
          Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

          A1

          Or arithmetic as its normally known

  43. Helen Smith
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    Help, now Carney has forecast the worse slump since WW2, because he and May have not prepared to leave on WTO terms. Instead of feeling shame he seems quite pleased with himself, maybe it’s because he knows it’s a pile of tripe but I worry that some MPs will fall for this load of bull.

  44. Original Richard
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    The government’s forecasts all about comparing GDP, as if this is the only figure which matters.

    Firstly the figure that really matters is standard of living and secondly the government assumes that there would be no changes in EU legislation, which would affect us if we remained in the EU or if we were tied to the EU’s regulations and rules but with no representation under Mrs. May’s Withdrawal Agreement.

    What will be our yearly contribution to the EU budget ?

    What will be our rates for VAT and personal and taxation when the EU harmonises taxation ?

    What other taxes, such as environmental taxes, will the EU levy upon us ?

    Will our healthcare, social care and benefits be freely available to all EU citizens ?

    What will be the cost of implementing all the EU legislation ?

  45. ian
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    What Mr Carney is really saying is, vote through the deal or we bankers will pull the carpet from under everybody and close down lending as they did in 2008, are you standing for that John or will you tell them where to get off and start court action on them.

  46. agricola
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    60% of our export trade, which incidentally is in credit, is carried out under WTO rules. I have not heard this described as a catastrophic cliff edge. However this is how remainers choose to describe trade with the EU were it conducted under WTO rules.
    Most large companies dealing with the EU will also be exporting outside the EU under WTO rules. It must be a norm for them. If we just left the EU ,companies of CBI size fear a lack of control of the market not having different paperwork proceedures. The plus side of leaving the EU with no trade agreement is that we are no longer obliged to make a £39 billion gesture of friendship ,and on customs charges based on current levels of trade we are £7 billion per annum in credit. This cliff edge nonesense needs destroying with the hard reallity. Once done the EU will quickly discover that they do not like paying £12billion in duty to maintain the current level of sales to us. Nor will thdy like having to compete with the rest of the World to sell us much of what we currently buy from the EU, sugar is a prime example. I conjecture that it would quickly bring them to heel due to pressure from their own exporters.

  47. ian
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Look like they threating everybody with an ERM and 2008 crash all in one go if they the bankers and big businesses don’t get their way.

  48. Qubus
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    Off topic, but:
    Delighted to hear JRM on BBC Radio 4 PM programme at 5.00pm this evening put that self-opinionated, biased presenter Evan Davis in his place.

  49. Bryan Harris
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    You are too hopeful JR – At this stage we cannot expect the Treasury to do anything but make any form of Brexit look bad.

    I always wondered why new Tory governments, when they came in, did nothing to shake up or replace the important people in the civil service. FGS we can see they are not going to support right of centre policies, when they are so in bed with labour and socialism.

    The Americans do it, and I believe we should do it, to at least create a level playing ground, with the hope that Tory po0licies might get implemented as intended

  50. Andy
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 8:13 pm | Permalink

    Every day in Brexitland is a disaster but today more so than most.

    The evidence is now overwhelming. Brexit – any type of Brexit – will make you and your children poor.

    The no deal Brexit favoured by some Brexiteers will make you and your children much poorer.

    Knowing this, any MP who votes for no deal will be acting with a criminally negligent disregard for his or her country.

    Justice will quickly catch up with all of them.

    • Edward2
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

      But the figures you refer to do not say we will be poor.
      They claim we might be marginally less well off than we may have been.
      Maybe.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 12:00 am | Permalink

      Andy

      Look either put up or shut up

      Every day you come on here telling us the evidence is this or that. Trouble is you never supply any evidence its all the nothing of your deranged ramblings.

      Show me EVIDENCE, not opinions, or forecast….EVIDENCE

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted December 1, 2018 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        Libertarian

        In two out of three instances you fall in the same category as you just described Andy , stop lecturing

        • libertarian
          Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

          hans

          In every single post you’ve ever made you have failed to provide any evidence, facts or links

          What is it with you and Andy?

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 8:11 am | Permalink

      Evidence! – You call that evidence … There is no element of truth in the reports and scare stories – You need to have your rationality checked Andy

  51. Mark
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    I discovered that Mr Gove appears to have been hoodwinked by the Project Fear projection that we would run out of drinking water and purification chemicals. I simply checked UK Tradeinfo, to find that we had imported 835 tonnes of chlorine from the EU in 2017 for a total cost of £1.09m, and we were in fact small net exporters overall by value. This is a tiny fraction of the chlorine production at Runcorn. The picture for aluminium sulphate, used in filtration beds shows an even smaller level of EU imports – just 238 tonnes worth £0.13m. There is 200,000 tonnes p.a. of production at Widnes.

    It is worrying that he should be both fooled and lied to.

    • a-tracy
      Posted November 28, 2018 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

      Who came up with this story? We actually need to dismiss people for these false statements.

    • libertarian
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 12:02 am | Permalink

      Mark

      Not only that, those chemicals are stored in powder form and have long shelf lives too.

      The daily lies told to us by our politicians is outrageous and I’m afraid looks like proving Trump right

  52. matthu
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Martin Howe is a leading barrister in the fields of intellectual property and EU law. He was called to the bar in 1978 and became a QC in 1996. He is Chairman of Lawyers for Britain.

    Worth reading is his legal opinion on the backstop arrangement:

    Withdrawal Agreement: The Northern Ireland Protocol is neither a “backstop” nor temporary

    https://lawyersforbritain.org/withdrawal-agreement-the-northern-ireland-protocol-is-neither-a-backstop-nor-temporary

    The Political Declaration does not save us from the trap of the Withdrawal Agreement

    https://lawyersforbritain.org/the-political-declaration-does-not-save-us-from-the-trap-of-the-withdrawal-agreement

    • Know-Dice
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 10:09 am | Permalink

      Not just worth reading, ESSENTIAL reading for all our MPs

  53. ChrisShalford
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    Take a complicated mathematical model, dishonestly feed in a lot of factors biased in favour of EU membership and, hey presto, you get the answer confirming your own bias. What is worse is that Governor Carney knows exactly what he is doing: abusing democracy.

  54. Robert Cale
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Fake-Rate Carney, Mr low interest rates, came out with the expected doom and gloom today. It was expected of course but supposing there was a period of adjustment after Brexit, what room does our ‘expert’ governor have to operate in? He has backed rates up to the wall and can’t cut them effectively to boost jobs and he has also weakened Sterling in the process. If, as Carney claim,s the Pound could lose a quater of its value after Brexit has the master of fake interest rates got the guts to bang rates up significantly, putting a million on the dole? Either way our Remoaner friend ‘in situ’ at the BOE has played himself into a checkmate with ‘his’ low rates policy. As for the Treasury playing politics with projections, lets just call that what it is, a disgrace, undermining the very institution of the exchequer.

  55. ian
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Has anyone seen Mr G, Soros floating around the BOE by any chance?

  56. Rogm
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Not only has the Treasury told us but the Governor of the BoE has told us..frightening isn’t it..house values could be down by 30%..will lead to millions of mortgage holders going into negative equity..as for the others planning on holidays in spain..well they can forget about it. Then listening to that nice polite gentleman Jacob Rees Moog tonight, he thinks that Mark Carney is a second rate Canadian politician..first I heard anything about that..well it looks like we have finally turned the corner now and are starting to devour our own..snarl snarl..but not what I voted for

  57. Original Richard
    Posted November 28, 2018 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Why is it necessary to maintain EU membership and hence pay a membership fee and follow EU laws in order to have a £95bn/year trading deficit with the EU ?

  58. Al
    Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:10 am | Permalink

    Here are some hard figures about the effects of Digital VAT from an organisation that is Pro-EU: Up to 17% of affected businesses ceased trading, and 22% ceased trading in the EU.

    http://euvataction.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/EU-VAT-Concerns-EU-Briefing-Feb-23-2015.pdf

    Also, when the EU finally began to introduce a threshold for this in 2018, businesses were not notified. The thresholds are still not standardised, making trade with the non-domestic EU impractical.

    Article 11 & 13 appear to be likely to have a similar result on blogs, reviews, news producers and others: the requirement for sites to have licences to collect remuneration from aggregators, even if they release content free or under Creative Commons will hit many small publishers hard and again force them onto third party platforms. Under its current wording it would even hit comment sites like blogs.

    https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20181030/17274340942/small-medium-publishers-protest-eu-link-tax-which-will-harm-them-while-helping-only-large-publishers.shtml

    • libertarian
      Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

      A1

      Great post, thanks for the information

  59. Ron Olden
    Posted November 29, 2018 at 2:25 am | Permalink

    MORE EU REMAINER LIES CONFOUNDED

    No doubt everyone will have heard over the months and recent years that unless we Remain in the EU or get a get a ‘deal’ with the EU flights in and out of the UK to the rest of the World will be grounded.

    According to Remainers the UK is dependent on the EU to ‘negotiate’ the minutiae of anything and everything, however trivial, and the world only agrees mutually essential deals with us, because the EU forces them to, on our behalf,

    People with normal functioning brains as opposed to Remainer compulsive liars however, have been saying that the UK was not dependent upon the EU concluding our bilateral fight access agreements for us or indeed anything else.

    The deals are only done via the EU because the EU demands that we do so and the UK being a single country with tentacles and friends all over the globe, and which can make decisions quickly, is better and much faster at it that 28 all arguing amongst themselves.

    The UK has now concluded its’ bilateral air access deal with the USA.

    Similar agreements with Albania, Georgia, Iceland, Israel, Kosovo, Montenegro, Morocco and Switzerland are already in place.

    Discussions with Canada are at “an advanced stage”. And any overlooked between now and leaving will no doubt be done after, whilst flights will continue as normal until they are.

    There is and never was ANY risk that the UK would be unable to reach these agreements.

    So Remainers will now have to move onto lying about something else. Their vast library of lies is more than capable of obliging..

    Incidentally this story is hidden well down the list on the BBC Business Pages. Caims that flights would be grounded however have been repeatedly headlined on the main BBC Website News.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46380463

  60. Tabulazero
    Posted November 29, 2018 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    An unprecedented 60 years of uninterrupted peace in Western Europe ?

    How about that ?

    • Edward2
      Posted November 29, 2018 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

      NATO

      The EU started in the 90s

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted December 1, 2018 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        It stared in the 1950s get your facts right with the Coal and Steel Union

        • libertarian
          Posted December 2, 2018 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

          Tabulazero & Hans

          There have been more than 35 wars, revolutions, coups, separatist insurgencies and terrorist uprisings in Europe since 1948

          Stop talking nonsense and deal with real facts

          What you actually mean is Germany hasn’t invaded France recently

  61. Nigel Seymour
    Posted November 29, 2018 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    The cracks are now starting to appear with Leadsom leading the ‘charge’. There will MP’s from all sides voting down her deal but I fear many more will now capitulate and vote for her clear remain flavoured Brexit.

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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