Euro area growth falls away

Today it was confirmed that Eurozone growth only managed 0.2% in the fourth quarter, and was just 0.1% in the third. Annualising that gives you a low  0.6% growth a year, compared to the UK’s annualised 1.6% over the same half year.

Yesterday the OECD cut its projections for growth in most countries of the world. It cut its forecast for Germany to just 0.7% for 2019, and Italy to -0.2%. It put the UK at 0.8%. The heading for its release was “Growth is weakening, particularly in Europe”.

Now would be a good time for the UK to cut tax rates and increase spending on schools and social care, as we could do with a boost and have the scope to do so as we leave the EU.

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81 Comments

  1. Brigham
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    I don’t think throwing money at schools will do anything about the problem of discipline. Lots of pupils who want to learn are disrupted by others who don’t. I went to a grammar school in 1945 and my nose was kept to the grindstone for fear of the cane. I didn’t like it then, but I’m grateful now.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

      I was only caned once at my Grammar School and that was for something I did not even do – I still resent it. But they they did not catch me for the things I did actually do I suppose!

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

      Dear Brigham–I agree totally, The very first words said to me before I even entered my Grammar School building (I was on the Upper Terrace where I shouldn’t have been) were, You boy, I’ll have you flogged. Got my attention. Discipline was absolute. I wonder to what extent the reluctance to use corporal punishment these days is due to the diversity we have had thrust upon us. Think about it.

  2. acorn
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    However, even that weak rate of expansion is premised on a smooth Brexit, with a transition period lasting to the end of 2020. The OECD believes a no-deal Brexit that led to the imposition of tariffs under World Trade Organization rules would reduce UK output by about 2 per cent, relative to a baseline of a smooth exit, over the next two years. (FT)

    • Edward2
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

      Whereas other think tanks believe it will be have a minimal negative effect.

    • Richard
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

      EU27 manufacturers & farmers will be vociferously demanding Article 24 GATT if Brussels’ promise of a subservient UK colony doesn’t happen:
      “Germany’s prestigious IFO Institut has crunched the numbers on the economic impact of no deal on 44 countries and predicted that Ireland would be hit three times harder than the UK by a no-deal Brexit. … The Institut also modelled the effect of a “hard but smart” Brexit, where the UK left with no deal but also put in place large unilateral tariff cuts, more or less exactly along the lines of what what the Government is planning [per Sky news]. In this scenario, the UK actually faces a smaller impact than the EU – they forecast a -0.5% impact on the UK compared to -0.4% for France and -0.48% for Germany, and -0.6% for the EU as a whole. Ireland is still by far the biggest loser, taking a -5.39% hit, ten times the size of the UK… In their sector-by-sector breakdown, they find that the UK would actually receive a major boost to certain sectors in a “hard but smart” Brexit, with electrical equipment up by 3.7%, machine manufacturing by 8.4% and pharmaceuticals by a whole 8.7%. EU sectors lose out across the board.” https://order-order.com/2019/03/06/german-economists-no-deal-will-hit-ireland-three-times-harder-uk/

    • Richard
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 7:17 pm | Permalink
  3. Denis Cooper
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    Ah, but that projection for the UK is assuming that MPs vote for Theresa May’s deal.

    If the UK left the EU without any deal then there would be no known number high enough to represent the catastrophic collapse of UK GDP.

    Well, according to page 2 here:

    http://www.cityam.com/assets/uploads/content/2019/03/cityam-2019-03-07-5c80c495a3c23.pdf

    “The economy could contract by two per cent and plunge the country into recession, if Britain quits the EU without a deal and crashes out on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, the OECD warned.”

    I suppose it “could” do that, if the likes of Philip Hammond wanted it to do that in order to prove their eurofederalist point; but on the other hand it “might not” do that if the correct action was taken by a more patriotic government.

    And I recall here various analyses suggesting that if the UK defaulted to the WTO treaties in an orderly manner then the long term outcome would almost certainly be sub-optimal but it would be far from catastrophic:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/01/18/the-german-establishment-wants-the-uk-to-stay-in-the-eu-of-course-they-do/#comment-989348

    “… a study commissioned by the German government which estimated that over the long term a “no deal” scenario could erode UK economic growth by 1.7 per cent of GDP …”

    “… authors at the London School of Economics who estimated an average 2.2 per cent loss, and analysts at Open Europe who came up with a similar number, plus those who carried out a study for Policy Exchange and whose estimate was also around that same level … ”

    “All of which makes sense given that in 2012 Michel Barnier, now the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, issued a report estimating that the creation of the EU Single Market had added a paltry 2.1 per cent to the collective GDP of the member states … While the German Bertelsmann institute … said that the benefit for the UK was only half that average at about one per cent of GDP.”

    • Know-Dice
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

      Don’t you understand Denis, experts know best !!!

      Just like the economics professor on BBC Breakfast yesterday, pointed out that under WTO that roast coffee beans would attract a 7.5% tariff that equated to 7.5 pence increase on the price of coffee shop coffee…

      She failed to point out that green coffee beans attract 0% tariff and could be roast in the UK, thus creating jobs here…and that currently 80% of CET gets paid to the EU.

      There must be plenty of other foodstuff that could be produced or processed in the UK, just like the huge tomato green house in Sussex? that has just gone online.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 5:00 am | Permalink

        There are experts and then there are lefty, right on, magic money tree pushing, EUphile, PC, climate alarmist, BBC think “experts”.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 8:23 am | Permalink

        Yes, I saw that. The BBC deciding at this late stage that they should explain about tariffs, getting it wrong themselves and calling upon somebody at Bournemouth University who gave a garbled account …

    • acorn
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

      As always the Brits only ever look at the EU in economic benefit terms. Brits have no understanding of the prime directive of the EU 27, which is to stop the likes of WW2 ever happening again on the west side of the Ural mountains.

      The UK has been sucking on the EU teat for three decades now; the goods trade deficit with the EU tells it so. From 30-40% of its food to the machines that generate its light and power.

      You could say that for an average net membership fee of about £7 to 8 billion a year (circa 0.5% of GDP), sixty five million UK citizens have been able to sit back and enjoy the socio-economic fruits of the EU; in exchange for some bits of paper called Pounds Sterling.

      Let’s hope that the world, post Brexit, still wants to exchange their products for Pounds Sterling and hold them as their “foreign reserves”.

      • Anonymous
        Posted March 7, 2019 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

        Err… no.

        It’s Remainers who only ever look at the EU in economic benefit terms.

        Both World Wars were started by the Germans who (on the West side, after the war) were kept safe by GB (NATO) sacrifice. The Germans on the East side freed by GB (NATO) sacrifice bankrupting the USSR in an arms race. So away with your “… sucking on the EU teat for 30 years.”

        Now they want us to sacrifice our membership of 5 Eyes and May seems likely to give it.

        That is definitely NOT the Brexit we voted for.

      • Edward2
        Posted March 7, 2019 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

        The EU has rarely mentioned peace in Europe or in the rest of the world as one of its ambitions.
        Their main ambition has been expansion of power over member nations and an increase in the number of member nations.
        Their foreign policies in Ukraine and elsewhere has been aggressive and ultimately destructive.
        Their commercial policies have been protectionist and are resulting in lower growth levels than world averages .

        • margaret howard
          Posted March 8, 2019 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

          Unlike the UK EU countries haven’t blindly followed the US into wars starting with Iraq that have thrown the whole Middle East into turmoil and caused millions of terrified refugees to flee for their lives.

          Ukraine ‘destructive’? I haven’t seen millions of Ukrainians swamping Europe creating tension and costing billlions.

          • Edward2
            Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

            The incompetent foreign policy of the EU challenging Russia with Eastwards expansion and trying to make Ukraine and other former USSR states EU members is a dangerous policy for world peace.
            Without an armed force it is also stupid.
            Did you agree with the UK entering Kuwait and Bosnia?
            Or is it just involvement in Iraq you dislike.
            When one day in years ahead the EU conscripts people to go to war for their unelected leaders remember I warned you.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 8:13 am | Permalink

        Well the EU has been a disaster in preventing war terms as we have seen.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 8:26 am | Permalink

        You have scaled a new pinnacle of arrant nonsense with this one, acorn.

    • Richard
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

      The Open Europe MITIGATED model was -0.5% (-o.04% pa over 13 years) for a World Trade deal but seemed to include very pessimistic assumptions:
      a) No new RoW FTAs; b) Keeping EU over-regulation;
      c) Ignored the saving from ending UK’s net payment of £12Bn+ pa http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/28/will-the-treasury-tell-us-the-cost-of-belonging-to-the-eu-that-is-fact-not-fiction/#comment-976930

  4. Bryan Harris
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    Unfortunately JR you do not have the ear of the chancellor – he’s too busy working out how to tax us more …

    Yet more evidence that we need to get away from this soul destroying entity called the EU.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 9, 2019 at 7:52 am | Permalink

      Working out how to tax and inconvenience us even more and also how to kill Brexit. He is May’s choice.

  5. ian wragg
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    That’s not going to happen until we get a Tory Chancellor. Tax, Spend,Waste and generally pee our money up the wall is the continued order of the day.

    Is there any truth that the government has already put preparations in place to pay the first tranche of the divorce bill, I know May and Hammond are desperate to pay it in full.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 8, 2019 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

      Indeed this while heaping other costs on to businesses too – like the making tax digital lunacy, gender pay reporting, over prices energy, daft banking rules and endless other insanities that cost businesses a fortune for nothing of any value.

  6. TomTomTom
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    Off-Topic Comment :

    Was reading yesterday about the current work-to-rule being carried out by French customs staff and the chaos that this is causing.

    But I am surprised that I haven’t read any stories about the impact on Just-In-Time manufacturing having been told regularly by Remainers that it is vital that components arrive promptly.

    Nor any stories about the lack of medical supplies – apparently some items come from Europe and “cannot be stockpiled”

    Have the Remainers been telling porkies again?

    • Bellboy
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

      TomTomTom..ah yes but the brexit business won’t really kick in until 30th March. After that time if the French Customs are still on work to rule or go-slow and goods have to be checked according to WTO rules well then am afraid the first thing to go will be JIT.. and nothing to do with porkies just the reality..but no lasting harm..we had no JIT back in the 60’s and we got on just the same.

      • Jagman84
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 6:29 am | Permalink

        JIT is not carried out over the English channel. It is carried out from local distribution hubs. Just thought I should remind you. I don’t want you spreading more mis-information….

        • Lookalike
          Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

          Yes distribution hubs on the outskirts of Rotterdam and Antwerp for my business..but we can manage ok without JIT by planning delivery in larger batches well ahead..only thing is it will be more costly and tie up cash but increased cost can be offset by passing on to the customer..in my business

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 8:28 am | Permalink

        “… and goods have to be checked according to WTO rules … ”

        Which WTO rules would they be? Chapter and verse, please.

  7. Everhopeful
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    I think that for a couple of years, growth was overestimated. We thought the global economy was doing better than it actually was. So a correction is probably due?
    No doubt Trump ( trade is a zero sum game) and Brexit will be blamed!

    • Stephen Priest
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

      If you ever catch Sally Bundock on the BBC News Channel between 5.30am and 6am every guest she has on reviewing the papers is 100% anti Trump and 100% anti Brexit

      • Lifelogic
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 5:02 am | Permalink

        Indeed this a largely the BBC line on all the programmes but usually just 80-90% not quite 100%.

  8. Mike Wilson
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

    I’ll tell you what would be a good idea – stop endlessly increasing COUNCIL TAX. Politicians act as if increasing Council Tax is not a tax rise! It is. And for elderly people on low fixed incomes it is becoming like having a mortgage all over again.

    • Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

      Gosh! Andy will be pleased to hear they are suffering. There’s nothing he/she likes better than to fantasise about ”pensioners” having problems making ends meet.
      He/she hasn’t quite got to grips with the principle of people having paid for their own pension pot, and the unfairness of much of it being taken away to help pay for Andy’s bins to be collected.
      Andy is no doubt waiting for the family’s despised baby boomer to die off so that he/she won’t have to worry about anything as sordid as council tax so long as he/she knows where the next bottle of (EU) bubbles is coming from.

    • Stephen Priest
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

      Council Tax up 4% – zero outrage from the BBC.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

      Indeed and what do they provide for all these taxes? Almost nothing of any value to the public at all!

      Even public loos and libraries seem to be vanishing! But they are very good at mugging people who park for 30 seconds over the due time or those who put a tyre in an empty bus lane!

  9. Mike Wilson
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    The eurozone figures sound dodgy to me. I am under the impression that all is well in the happy eurozone. Unemployment is virtually unheard of. Workers have 10 weeks holiday a year and only work a 25 hour week. Wages are so high people don’t know what to spend the money on next. And no young person is out of work.

    • Mockbeggar
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

      In fact many of the young people (Italy in particular) in the eurozone are getting 52 weeks holiday per year. Only the poor bureaucrats have to work for 42 weeks a year though those in Brussels get special concessions (that we’re not told about) to compensate.

  10. Richard1
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

    There seems very little chance of any imaginative policies whilst Mrs May is PM. Mr Hammond – who always sounded quite sensible pre-Brexit – is also a disappointment. We need lower taxes in many areas where we clearly have dysfunctional high rates. Stamp duty is the most obvious. We need much simpler taxes – Osborne was supposed to be committed to this but did the opposite. We need to cut obvious wasteful spending. HS2 is the single most startling example, although by no means the only one. I suggest that whatever happens on March 29th – an extension of EU membership seems most likely – the Govt announce some high profile direction-giving free market policies for the UK post Brexit (if we ever get there).

  11. Lifelogic
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Indeed and the UK’s growth is despite Hammond’s absurdly high and complex tax rates, the dire visionless robot T May, the endless insane red tape, huge government waste everywhere, the idiotic making tax Digital agenda, the second rate Nhs, poor schools and education system, restrictive planning and many wealthy people leaving.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

      Imagine if we had a real Conservative government, a real Brexit, half sensible policies and little chance of Communist Corbyn.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

      We would also do far better if we reduced the number (by perhaps about 90%) of people going to “Universities” to get into £50K of subsidised debt (that most will never repay) plus three years loss of earnings for essentially worthless degrees in women’s studies, media studies, psychology, divinity, liberal arts, Oxford PPE/Geography and similar.

      Taxpayer funded soft student loans only for people with AAB or better at A level and then only for Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, Engineering, Veterinary, Business, Marketing, Dentistry, Architecture or other real sciences. Perhaps law, but we have far too many Lawyers already – by a factor of about 10.

  12. agricola
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    I agree in principal with cutting tax rates which are currently a block on enterprise. First you need to analyse the purpose of government, what should it do or not do. If you are running a quasi socialist state as is the present government it will cost. Experience also suggests that those truely in need fall through the net. The home office is a typical example of utter incompetence of delivery. To tax less you spend less or much more efficiently.

    There seems to be a difference of opinion in cabinet over releasing intended tariff schedules should we leave the EU without an agreement on 29th March. It would gjve agriculture in particular a planning window for future opportunities. It would also put the fear of God up the intransigent EU. Our principal should be to protect home industry with tariffs and quotas in particular for farming which is a long term business. We could also us tariff freedom to encourage developing countries, particularly in our commonwealth. Sugar is a prime opportunity to negate EU protectionism. Citrus fruit is another.

    Finally I would play hardball with such as BMW threatening to pull out of UK production by asking them if they anticipated selling any German made BMWs in the UK in future.

    • agricola
      Posted March 8, 2019 at 6:49 am | Permalink

      Why, it is not that contentious.0

  13. Merlin
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    Sometimes I sense JR wants the E.U to do badly economically.

    It’s the same as when I hear people who voted remain wishing misery on the British economy, which I have no time for either.

    The E.U and British economy are very closely connected. If E.U growth is slow, that is a drag on British growth, and nothing to celebrate.

    Reply No, I would rather they did well

    • Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

      We would all rather they did well.
      We just want to be rid of the EU’s tentacles. We want to be friends with European countries, not vassals within the State of Europe.
      What’s wrong with that?

    • Mitchel
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

      From a recent Pew Research Center survey across 25 countries:”Which countries play a more/less important role in the world than 10 years ago”:

      + = –
      China 70 16 8
      Russia 41 28 19
      Germany 35 34 18
      US 31 35 25
      India 27 34 22
      France 22 40 27
      UK 21 36 30

      France and the UK(Brexit or no Brexit) are becoming irrelevant.The EU does not make any sense in the face of Putin-Xi led Eurasian integration-the EU may have a fanciful notion that it can co-opt this process-good luck with that!;Italy having made itself a Russian client state is now about to formally endorse China’s BRI.

      Instead of threatening China with imaginary gunboats and spending fortunes on generating Russophobic propaganda,the government should swallow it’s pride and look for ways of engaging with these powers which are shaping the future world before we are swept away by what they are doing.As Sergei Lavrov asserted last year,we are now living in the “post-west world”.

      (And that survey was conducted mid 2018 before the UK made a total laughing stock of itself).

      • Caterpillar
        Posted March 7, 2019 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

        The Pew data not only shows the change in importance that respondents around the world see if each country, it also gives (not shown above) the percentage in the +-= categories for respondents about own countries. If you go back and look at data you will see when people are more negative about their own country, their importance is ranked lower by the RoW and vice versa i.e. self negativity is reflected in world opinion. Interesting data but different stories can be told based on what you in/exclude.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

      No we all want them to do well it is in the UK’s interest that they do! Alas the socialist bureaucrats of the EU, the EURO one size fits all lunacy, the expensive green crap energy, the absurd employment laws and the endless red tape ensures they remain very uncompetitive in World terms.

    • Anonymous
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

      I want Europe to do well.

      As for the EU…

      (That which has caused divisions both here and abroad – contrary to the belief that it is a force for unity.)

  14. hans christian ivers
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

    Sir JR,

    Your figures are a distortion of the facts both looking over 12-24 and 36 months.

    2018 : EU growth 1.2% UK: 1.3%

    In the past 24 months growth in the Euro zone has also been higher in the EURO area and significantly higher in eastern and central Europe and in Spain and Portugal

    • Edward2
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

      Rather irrelevant hans as we are talking about the current situation.

      • margaret howard
        Posted March 7, 2019 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

        Edward2

        “hans as we are talking about the current situation”

        hans:

        “2018 : EU growth 1.2% UK: 1.3%”
        ===

        How much more current do you expect? 2019 has only just started.

        • Edward2
          Posted March 7, 2019 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

          No
          Hans talked about a 2 and 3 years period before the current date.
          Look at the poor figures for major players Germany and France recently compared to UK
          #despite brexit

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:26 am | Permalink

        Edward2

        that was not the case for John either, so spare me

        • Edward2
          Posted March 8, 2019 at 10:21 am | Permalink

          You need to read the original article again hans.

          And you have switched your figures to the whole EU when the article was stating Eurozone figures.

    • Ian wragg
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

      Spain and Portugal which still haven’t reach pre crash levels and both with youth unemployment at around 25%.
      Italy and Greece already back in recession and we’ve only just started.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:27 am | Permalink

        Ian Wagg
        and then there are the 23 others

        • Jagman84
          Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:44 am | Permalink

          So much for EU solidarity! Even you do not care about the less successful nations. As long as Germany is OK, etc….

          • margaret howard
            Posted March 8, 2019 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

            Jagman

            As if we had ever cared about the less successful nations in our midst. We exploited them shamelessly.

          • Edward2
            Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

            Harking back a century or more is a red herring.
            Deal with 2019 onwards and the way the EU cares not a jot for the real austerity their policies create in member nations.

  15. ian
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    That also not forget about technical colleges for young people and kids that are excluded from the schools can train for something as well.

    • RAF
      Posted March 8, 2019 at 8:54 am | Permalink

      ian

      …and kids that are excluded from the schools can train for something as well.

      A laudable idea. However, my experience of trying to work with kids who were not interested in being educated, albeit 15 years ago, was not a happy time. Drawn from three areas of my county there was little difference between the groups. Within each group one or two wanted to grasp the chance of learning a trade but the remainder merely continued with their total lack of interest: happy to be out of school and under a more easy going regime. I was dismayed by their attitude and lack of knowledge, and the large number of 14 – 15 year old males in this category.
      I lasted for four weeks and decided to leave after being attacked by a young man wielding a very heavy yard broom when my attention was focused on helping another youngster with his work. The broom aimed at my head was a dangerous weapon but it could have been worse if my assailant had decided to use a 3lb hammer or a shovel, both available to this disturbed individual.
      My impression is that young males with no interest in learning a skill and improving their prospects require a much greater level of discipline than what was forthcoming where I was placed. Being keen to help and give them a chance was sneered at by the majority of them.

  16. Posted March 7, 2019 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    The acceptance of the abominable ‘deal’ aka “surrender and be taken captive” can only be acquiesced in by MPs (‘leaders’ ha ha!) who have no idea of right and wrong. Yet it seems that this is the rule in politics: “Let us do evil things that good things may come?” Romans 3:8; And yet folk think that civilisation is growing, evolving – more ha’s!
    This leads on to an expectancy of voting against ‘no deal’ – again: “Let us do evil things that good things may come?” Keep our former lords and masters in the driving seat (on the throne!)
    ditto an extension – even the pagans* knew better “Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad”
    *Or, so attributed.

  17. Beer Brewer
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Chancellor Hammond just managed, just, to keep back a smile when interviewed on TV today as he said Brexiteer MPs should think very carefully as Mrs May will actually come back to the House next week with a “watered down” version of her original plan and “compromise” must be made. They should “Vote for the Deal”

    • Lifelogic
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

      May’s deal in not a “compromise”, it is a totally insane surrender!

  18. 'None of the above'.
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    I agree Sir John but some Ministers seem to be suffering from wilful blindness and selective hearing. Anyone would think that they had become delusional over the EU economy.

    • Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

      ‘None of the above’ – See Mr Ivers’ comment just before yours.

  19. Iain Gill
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    will just encourage more immigration to the UK, and hence depressing of wages for locals here

  20. Bob
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    As if we needed another reason to leave the EU, Ken Livingstone says he might be leaving the UK due to Brexit. Fantastic news!

  21. Denis Cooper
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

    This is also interesting:

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/06/german-economists-no-deal-will-hit-ireland-three-times-harder-uk/

    “Germany’s prestigious IFO Institut has crunched the numbers on the economic impact of no deal on 44 countries and predicted that Ireland would be hit three times harder than the UK by a no-deal Brexit, taking a massive 8.16% hit to their economy.”

    That’s in Table 1 here:

    http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/sd-2019-04-felbermayr-hard-but-smart-brexit-2019-02-21.pdf

    with the number for Ireland under their worst scenario being 8.16%, while that for GB is only 2.76%; however with appropriate mitigation the damage for GB could be limited to just 0.5%, while that for Ireland would still be 5.39%.

    For the UK, those numbers can be compared to a previous ifo estimate of 1.7%:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-even-worst-case-brexit-will-be-bearable-for-eu/

    “In the scenario where the U.K. and the EU fail to strike a trade deal and fall back on World Trade Organization rules, the study predicts the U.K. economy would lose 1.7 percent of economic output over the long-term”

    Reply Given sensible policies and no more payments to the EU the UK will be better off.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted March 7, 2019 at 4:33 pm | Permalink

      Still in moderation!

  22. Ed Mahony
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    And European army is out, but why can’t European armies train together more? Not all the time, but symbolically at least. And share the cost of building some military equipment in some way. We would still be completely sovereign countries.

    This would put European armies on a good footing together. And send a strong message to rogue states outside Europe, that Europe is united against any kind of military threat, terrorism and drug criminal gangs etc ..

    • Jagman84
      Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:51 am | Permalink

      They already do and have done so for decades. Primarily, under the umbrella of NATO but not exclusively. An EU army is purely an anti-US hissy fit. Small-fry politicians, wishing to look big on the world stage. It’s the whole ethos of the EU.

      • Ed Mahony
        Posted March 9, 2019 at 10:25 am | Permalink

        It’s such a shame. Europeans can do GREAT things together without actually having to share the same single market, customs union and army.

        We can all be completely Sovereign whilst having close and healthy relations in terms of Trade, Culture and Security.

  23. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    What I like more is the proposal to cut most import tariffs after 29th March. That will help the poorest in our country. We will have to protect our agriculture so that domestic production will be adequate in time of war. Otherwise, we will become a tiger economy.

    And if the EU doesn’t reciprocate, they will forfeit their £39 billion bung.

  24. margaret
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Do you want the chancellors case John?

  25. Know-Dice
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    Euro area growth falls away

    In BBC speak…

    Was that “Because of Brexit” or “Despite of Brexit” ? 🙂

  26. Mark B
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    It is actually worse than this. You have to take into account that many of the other EU countries are recipient of EU (UK, German, French and Dutch) cash which is artificially keeping their zombie economies going. Plus the fact that, and this mostly applies to Poland and the RoI, that we take a proportion of their population and give them work here. They get free healthcare which their countries never are asked to pay back and benefits galore. Sadly, this will soon come to an end and then we will see how well the EU does.

  27. Bellboy
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    We shouldn’t be too concerned because we have been told by IDS and others that the German car workers are very soon going to ride out and pressure Mrs Merkel to tell that Brussels crowd what needs to be done. Likewise the French wine producers and the Belgian chocolate makers will take to the streets to tell the Commission where they are all wrong. The EU will then have to fall into line with UK demands for leaving and so save us all a few points on the 2019 Growth GDP scale..well if you believe all of that then that you’re as likely to believe in the man in the moon

    • Jagman84
      Posted March 8, 2019 at 9:54 am | Permalink

      We will see who is correct very soon, won’t we?

  28. Anonymous
    Posted March 7, 2019 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    What has Amber Rudd got against (some ed) people ? (Especially during a knife crime crisis)

    First the Windrush and now the “coloured people” insult to national treasure Diane Abbott !!!

    Blunder Woman ! Why is she in cabinet after such an unusually short spell on the subs bench. Next PM ? REALLY ???

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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