The latest opinion polls

Looking at the latest European election polls, I am urging the Conservative government  to change its approach to our exit from the EU.

A large majority of the public do not see the Withdrawal Agreement as a good deal for the UK, or as Brexit. It unites Remain and Leave voters in opposition.

It is urgent not just for the Conservative party but for our country that either Mrs May accepts the Agreement cannot proceed, or a new PM takes over who starts by telling the EU the Agreement is  unacceptable. The Conservative-Labour talks as predicted are not helping either party.  We need to leave now, responding positively to the EU offer of talks on a free trade agreement. We should not be holding these European elections as we do not want to have another 5 years as members of the EU. The 2017 Conservative Manifesto was right to say No deal is better than a bad deal, and to propose exit on 29 March 2019.

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241 Comments

  1. Richard1
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    We have enough evidence of the obstinacy of Mrs May, Conservative MPs need to act now. It will a dangerous thing to allow a national election to take place in which the Conservatives get 11-12% & come 3rd or 4th. Even if Mrs May is subsequently replaced that could be difficult to recover sufficiently from.

    Nevertheless the euro election will be an interesting test of public opinion on Brexit. It looks like it’s c 1/3+ for hard brexit, c 1/3 for cancel brexit / ref 2 and 1/3 for the unclear fudge offered by the Conservative and Labour parties.

    • Hope
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

      JR, Traitor May acted behind the back of her ministers and cabinet to draw up an alternative servitude treaty! Who does that! Her own servitude plan goes against what she described as a bad deal and what she described would not be leaving the EU. She is dishonest. No one could repeatedly claim under all sorts of scenarios posed by her own party MPs that the U.K. would leave on 29/03/2019. That was not abstract it was lies. Before the referendum, after before the general election and after it was clearly stated leaving meant leaving the customs union, not changing to name, leaving the single market, not changing its name and leaving the ECJ, not allowing it to be the sole abitor of of any despite in her servitude plan!

      The lies and dishonesty by May have been allowed to go on for far too long. The cowardice in your party not to oust her now acts in public opinion not to trust any of you.

      Raab, Johnson, McVey. Just be absolutely deluded to think people will vote for them. They resigned because of Traitor May’s servitude plan and voted for it last time because of their ambition! National interest is far more important and people like principled fighters not self serving cowards like these.

      hose who claimed to be leavers in cabinet have now destroyed their own reputation. Sir Roger Scruton sacked without any evidence and on a false premise by Brokenshire, Williamson sacked without evidence or any right to a fair hearing by Sedwill and May! Your party has driven people to the Brexit Party. It’s toxic behaviour this week whe Lewis tries to name and shame those Tory MPs who stand up for the 17.4 million people who voted Brexit shows how out of touch your party is.

      Traitor Rudd rubbishing your supporters this weekend and makes derogatory remarks about Ann Widdicombe. Widdicombe would floor her for values, strategy, morals and would floor her in any debate! Rudd should not be in cabinet, she is only in office by an extremely small majority. Rudd, May Hammond, Clarke and their ilk ridicule you, JRM, Widdecombe and others who are true Tories.

      No doubt it along with the BBC will try to smear Farage and his new party. Blaire is essentially calling for it today. We cannot stomach any more BBC rot, PC Marxist Tory garbage.

    • Peter
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

      Nigel Farage has just given a master class today in how to handle interviews. He absolutely destroyed Marr and his line of questioning.

      Farage just has the gift of putting his point across and cutting through any nonsense.

      Brexit Party will clean up in a few weeks. We still have a long term battle on our hands though and the Conservative party might be on the wrong side.

      • Narrow Shoulders
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

        Could he be preaching to the choir in your case Peter?

        I bet he did not change one person’s mind either way. What he does do is focus attention and stand up for an ignored section of society. But he is as capable of converting people as John Macdonell. He shores up his own constituency rather than engaging the other side.

        Much like Ms Soubry with whom he wiped the floor on Yhursday night’s Question Time. But again those who disagree with him will say he was a boorish bully.

        • Iain Gill
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 12:34 am | Permalink

          Just wish I knew what the Brexit party policies were apart from the obvious one. Mind I no longer care what the conservatives say are their policies, as the difference between what they say and what they do are far too wide.

          • Mark B
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:08 am | Permalink

            We knew what the Tory and Labour policy was on BREXIT at the last GE. Shame they seemed to have forgotten.

      • Richard1
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

        I thought farage came across as belligerent and defensive, admittedly with a hostile bbc interviewer. On question time the other night he couldn’t answer a simple question about trade under wto rules. Odd since he’s done nothing other than advocate Brexit for 25 years. Farage is certainly a good campaigner and his political instincts are probably basically Tory. But he’s unlikely ever to appeal much beyond his base. The referendum was won by Boris and Gove. Left to farage, leave would have lost.

      • jerry
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

        @Peter; Mr Farage and his latest party (never mind his latest retracted resignation from politics…) can win all the UK EP seats going but it will not change anything because neither The Brexit Party nor UKIP have any seats were it matters – the UK Parliament! More hot air anyone?…

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

          Sorry all. I have to agree with Peter. Farage gave a great interview and he was right when he said the British electorate are fed up being lied to. We want democracy and that’s being denied.

          • jerry
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 5:49 am | Permalink

            @Fedupsoutherner; “We want democracy and that’s being denied.”

            Sir Keir Starmer might well agree with you…

        • libertarian
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

          Jerry

          Thats true of course. However the last time Farage won the Euros it bought about the referendum. When the Brexit party win this by a landslide the Remain/PeoplesVote/2nd referendum etc etc will be dead in the water. The Tory party has been eviscerated and change will happen

          • jerry
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

            @libertarian; Yours is Hyperbole on stilts, with tinsel…

            Farage had no way of influencing the UK parliament, at best UKIP had just two MPs, it was people like our host who forced the Govts hand, in the same way some are today suggesting the ERG withdraw their support to get rid of May, if they succeed no doubt some of the Farage supported club is try and claim victory for that too, ‘It was Farage whot got rid of May’….

            “When the Brexit party win this by a landslide [other parties] will be dead in the water”

            UKIP ‘won’ the UK EP elections once before, look at them now, not one of the other parties (beyond the BNP) are dead in the water.

          • Fred H
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 9:56 am | Permalink

            jerry…..you merely point out the problem with FPTP democracy ( ie IT ISN’T) so UKIP got a big percentage which doesn’t equate to seats…Ask LIBDEMs how they feel. Moving on to Keir Starmer (made Sir to get rid of him) is democracy flooding Labour committees and groups with Momentum workers in order to vote off ordinary moderate Labour candidates indicative of a democracy?

          • libertarian
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 10:27 am | Permalink

            Jerry

            Thanks just yesterday you castigated someone here for being rude in their responses.

            Guess what your latest post makes you?

            You seem completely oblivious to the fact that the Brexit Party is not UKIP

            UKIP won the last Euro elections and the Tories called a referendum. That was the aim then

            Now the Tories and Labour have both ratted on their manifestos , so the TOTALLY DIFFERENT Brexit party will see them off. Its not difficult Jerry, apply some logical thinking to it

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 11:26 am | Permalink

            @Fred H; Perhaps, but then the same could be said about the LD, even the Greens… If we had some flavour of PR it is far more likely that UK govt’s would be made up of left-wing coalitions, or at least centre-right, just as they are in countries such as Germany. Remember that the LibDems and the Liberals before have been complaining about the FPTP system since before we even entered the EEC.

            What is more, with very real prospects of being ‘peace makers’, UKIP would have been forced to not only have had fully costed policies they would have had far greater critical reviews, and yes that would also apply to other current ‘fringe’ parties too, such as the Greens.

    • Butties
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

      Your Odds? In your dreams.

    • Ginty
      Posted May 13, 2019 at 5:19 am | Permalink

      You can’t claim all of the Tory votes nor all of the Labour votes for Remain.

  2. BCL
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:44 am | Permalink

    I was and remain a great admirer of Mrs Thatcher, not least because I remember how things were before she sorted out the unions, amongst other things. One of her characteristics was unshakable determination and certainty that she was right. Inevitably she continued to be determined and certain long past the point where everyone around her thought she was wrong and should bend. It was a policy that served her and us superbly well until it didn’t. I fear Mrs May is on a similar path and hope the “men in grey suits” will have their quiet word with her soon and that she will listen.

    • John Hatfield
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

      Except the Wets, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Hestletine etc were pro -EU when she was resisting further EU involvement. So she was correct. If they had listened to her instead of booting her out, we wouldn’t be in the mess we are now in.

      • Steve
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

        John Hatfield

        They stabbed her in the back.

      • Richard1
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        Geoffrey Howe was most certainly not a wet as defined at the time

    • Spratt
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

      Er, when did Mrs May serve us superbly well? I must have missed that bit. Arguably she may have served herself superbly well. That all depends on what you value in your life.

    • Mark B
      Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:13 am | Permalink

      She gave way, against better advice and judgement, over the ERM due to pressure from the Wets in her party. The trouble was she began to see the then EEC for what it was and resisted. For that she was ousted.

  3. formula57
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    These latest polls might also suggest Mrs. May should change nothing at all for then there is the prospect of revolutionary and lasting change to the good. I should though be very sorry to see you lose in Wokingham.

  4. Mike Wilson
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    Mr. Redwood, who will you be voting for in the EU election?

    You should not be worried if you were prepared to admit to be planning to vote for the Brexit Party. I am sure most of your local party members will be voting for them too.

    • Steve
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

      Mike Wilson

      “I am sure most of your local party members will be voting for them too.”

      No, most of them will vote Labour, cos they think Labour is going to be their lifeboat. What they don’t realise is that we’re going to sink that as well.

      It’s more than brexit now, it’s about annihilating the duopoly and replacing it with something which serves US. Their cosy little number and hoodwinking days are coming to an end, people have had enough of them and their crap.

  5. Peter
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    May is not listening. She is not going and the Conservative party are not removing her. The 1922 committee are made to wait a week before she will even answer a question about her leaving date.

    This will not end well.

    • Steve
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

      Peter

      “The 1922 committee are made to wait a week before she will even answer a question”

      Just give her to me, she will answer any question straightaway.

  6. What Tiler
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:58 am | Permalink

    Keep banging that drum JR, but they’re not listening and it’s going to result in the utter destruction of the Conservative and Unionist party. (Who’d have guessed that the eponymous union would turn out to be the European Union, eh?)

  7. Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    I guess confidently that many long-standing Tory voters have lost confidence in the Party but have been dissuaded from deserting for fear of letting in a Corbyn government. With the latest polls showing The Brexit Party having sufficient public support to make a breakthrough under the FPTP system, this seems a reduced danger. A vote for TBP may not split the vote letting in one or other lefty Party, but provide a eurosceptic win.

    Another stimulus to the bandwagon effect.

    In my dreams we could find TBT even being able to form a coalition government, with the beleagured Tories tagging along as a minority partner.

    • Chris
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

      Yes, Duyfken, I think we have got to that point. I think your last sentence may well be the situation we reach – a necessary staging point before a fully formed new conservative type Party emerges, having ditched the liberal left element of so called “progressive” Conservatives.

      • Steve
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        Chris

        I don’t see that working. Many people won’t vote Labour because of Blair, similarly the conservative vote will be badly affected because of Theresa May.

        It wouldn’t matter if they got rid of her tomorrow – the party is stained for the rest of time, just like Labour is.

        If they had done what we said, when we said, they might have had a chance. But hey, what do we know ? we’re just the thick electorate who’s only purpose is to put them in office.

        • Chris
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

          Steve, I am saying that a new Party will emerge from all of this, which will have grassroots Conservatives in it as well as others. I see it as the Brexit Party when it develops post European elections. I agree there will be a cross section of people in it but there won’t be ones tainted by association with (or support for) May.

    • Steve
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

      Dominic

      I agree, fortunately the cat’s out of the bag now.

    • Steve
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

      Duyfken

      “….but have been dissuaded from deserting for fear of letting in a Corbyn government.”

      Not necessarily. It’s probable Labour will also get what’s coming.

  8. Julie Dyson
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    Latest European election polls (source: Opinium / order-order.com) in case some readers haven’t seen them yet —

    The Brexit Party: 34%
    Labour: 21%
    LibDem: 12%
    Conservative: 11%
    Green: 8%
    UKIP: 4%
    SNP: 4%
    CHUK: 3%

    For General Election voting intention, Conservatives and Brexit Party are vying for second place on around 20% of the vote each, with Labour in the lead on 27%.

    It is absolutely essential that we leave on WTO terms without delay because it is quite clear that this is otherwise going to remain the only topic on the agenda for many years to come, hampering government and resulting in damaging and ineffective coalitions. The ongoing battle for / against WTO is likely to do far, far more damage to this country than the act itself is ever likely to do.

    Such is the price of denying democracy.

    • piglet
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:51 am | Permalink

      Agree completely, Julie.

    • jerry
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:45 am | Permalink

      But there is no majority for a WTO exit in parliament, now there appears to be no majority in the country either even if a How-to referendum was held.

      Talk about blasted fundamentalist Brexiteers wining a battle but then going on to loose the war because they go distracted, preferring fight amongst themselves as to who would be the post war leader… Maddening 😡

      • Julie Dyson
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

        There is frankly no majority in Parliament for practically anything, with far too many of our elected representatives putting their own personal aims before the clearly expressed wishes of the people that sent them there to represent their constituency — and despite standing on a manifesto pledge to uphold that promise.

        Leave voters are now indicating their displeasure — and their intentions if necessary — in an effort to make their MPs finally see the light and do the right thing.

        Yes, it may lead to considerable political upheaval, but it has to be better than the French way…

        • David Price
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

          and if voting really doesn’t work there is always the French way to fall back on.

      • Ginty
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

        Anna Soubry’s party languishes last at 3%… after all that trapping off she did.

        Both major parties offering WTO beat the one that offered Remain at the last GE, their leader being unseated.

      • David Price
        Posted May 13, 2019 at 4:57 am | Permalink

        But that isn’t what happened. The problem is a fundementalist remainer [1] lying to everyone repeatedly and trying to impose a non-leave treaty on everyone while the elected house [2] reneged on their promises [3] knowing the unelected house and friends would derail things further.

        And then we have the civil service who appear to have been trying to establish escape routes [4].

        The referendum was not for a “deal”.

        • jerry
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:04 am | Permalink

          @David Price; The problem is not someone lying, it is others believing that lie. WMD’s anyone?

          “The referendum was not for a “deal”.”

          Sorry but that is just as much a lie as the one you claim TM is telling, both Vote Leave and Leave.UK (if not others) talked endlessly about doing a ‘deal’ with the EU giving us a trade deal that was as good as our current treading terms when ever Remain suggested that our economy would be adversely affected by Brexit. Hence Remain’s retort back “the best ‘deal’ is the one we already have”…

          • Edward2
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 11:06 am | Permalink

            The Withdrawal Agreement is not a deal.
            As David correctly says it is a treaty.
            It is an outline of some rules and arrangements before we start negotiations towards a deal.
            You only have to read our host’s letter to the Attorney General showing the restrictions and negativities that are built into the Withdrawal Agreement, to realise it would be better if Parliament decided not to pass it.

          • jerry
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

            @Edward2; “The Withdrawal Agreement is not a deal.”

            Of course the WA is a ‘deal’, even agreeing to a WTO exit would still be a ‘deal’, an agreement, or as David said, a treaty.

            How many nuns do you have dancing on your pinhead Eddie?!..

          • Edward2
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

            As usual you are in a minority.
            The name Withdrawal Agreement might give you a clue.
            But I realise you tend to take the opposite view just for the fun of it jessa.

          • libertarian
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

            Jerry

            You’re wrong I’m afraid. Its not a deal . Its an OFFER , a deal only happens when an agreement entered into by two or more parties for their mutual benefit, especially in a business or political context is agreed

          • David Price
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

            @Jerry – The referendum was not for a deal, it was to leave the EU and, if you want to pick a slogan, take back control.

            Just because you believe it was for a deal does not make it so nor the reason why others voted to leave.

            In any case, I don’t want a trade deal with the EU as it is not at all clear that we would benefit that much from it.

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 7:08 am | Permalink

            @Edward2; Libby; David; Wow, we do have a lot of nuns dancing on pinheads, look up the (relevant) definition of the word ‘deal’ before you all start having to dance on the wrong end of your pins, painful…

          • libertarian
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

            Dear deluded Jerry

            What I wrote is IN FACT the dictionary definition of deal

            Deal – when an agreement entered into by two or more parties for their mutual benefit, especially in a business or political context is agreed

            Whoops bet you feel stupid now

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

            Dear deluded libertarian;

            Oh dear, from OED online;

            Deal – noun; An agreement entered into by two or more parties for their mutual benefit, especially in a business or political context.

            Treaty – noun; A formally concluded and ratified agreement between states.

            Whoops, bet you feel stupid now, trying to dance on the sharp end of your pin…

          • libertarian
            Posted May 15, 2019 at 9:29 am | Permalink

            Jerry

            I bet you look well daft , the dictionary I used says the same as the dictionary you used, both of them proving you wrong. Doh

            AGREEMENT is the key word Jerry , its not a deal if it hasn’t been agreed

            Blimey you really are struggling these days aren’t you

        • David Price
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

          “.. even agreeing to a WTO exit would still be a ‘deal’, ..”

          No it wouldn’t, we don’t have to agree anything at all much less a treaty, to leave on WTO terms, that is the default relationship.

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 7:16 am | Permalink

            @David Price; Agreeing to use WTO trading terms is a ‘deal’, an agreement, a (international) treaty, otherwise why would it be called the World Trade Organisation with 124 nation states as signatories?!

          • Edward2
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

            Gosh is there no end to your pedantic word play Jerry?

    • Chris
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

      Well done, Julie. Good post.

  9. oldtimer
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    I doubt that Mrs May will ever admit to error or that many would believe her even if she did. It would be seen as part of an attempt to cling to office. She should never again be allowed anywhere near a position of responsibility.

    Even after she has been dragged kicking and screaming from No 10, the Conservative party has the tortuous task of finding a successor. Finding one that is supported by Conservative MPs, party members and the country at large is nigh on impossible. Only one or two likely candidates appear capable of projecting your aims with conviction and confidence. The remainder will merely go through the motions to gain office. The public, advised by Mr Farage, will see straight through them.

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

      It seems more and more apparent that the country is run by civil servants. This would explain why Mrs May appears so oblivious to criticism and opprobrium and even insult – knowing (if it is so) that ”it ain’t me, guv” and that one day she’ll be what she sees as ‘exonerated’ because ”It was them wot did it.”
      Proper ”Yes, Prime Minister” stuff.

      Richard Littlejohn wrote a good Sir Humphrey article last week based on Sir Mark Sedwill.

  10. Lifelogic
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:17 am | Permalink

    Exactly.

    Does anyone think that Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement is a good deal for the UK or is Brexit? It is clearly £39 billion handcuffs for the UK, a vassal state agreement, binding future governments totally unacceptably and killing nearly all the benefits of leaving for many years – perhaps for ever. Furthermore leaving future governments in a very weak position from which to negotiate anything sensible.

    Yet nearly all May’s Cabinet keep telling us it is ‘a good deal’. Perhaps they are just all very stupid or they have not bothered to read it – these are surely the most generous assumptions one can make.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

      I tend not to be that generous LL. These people know exactly what they are doing, so we can safely say they are out to sell us down the river yet again, as so many Tories have in the past. But that isn’t to say Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens or that other motley crew are any better.

      • Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

        I don’t think I’ve heard any remainer MP say ”I’ve read this deal in detail and I believe it is the best thing since sliced brot”. Why would they if they’ve got a civil serpent to read it for them and tell them what it says?

      • Lifelogic
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

        You are probably right.

  11. Shieldsman
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    The Conservatives are not a Party for a clean Brexit, only a Brino.
    I believed you when you when you said only the Conservative Party could deliver BREXIT.
    Correction: only a Government, not lying Theresa May and her Cabinet.
    Now that the EU elections are upon us My vote will not be going to the Conservatives.
    The leaflet that came through my door from Brandon Lewis and CCHQ disgusts me, it is a pack of lies. It sinks to new depths in attempting to blackball yourself and 33 other honest Conservative MP’s who voted like Labour three times against the WA. As you have explained at length many times it could shackle the UK to the EU for ever and a day.
    May and Brandon Lewis twist the English language out of all recognition when they call it a deal.

  12. John Sheridan
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Sadly Sir John, I fear that your fellow MPs have left it too late for the party to form another government in the foreseeable future.

    The majority of Conservative MPs only pay lip service to the result of the referendum whilst actively seek to neuter Brexit. The chief reason for the rapid drop in polling to my mind is Mrs May’s insistence that the UK should be subservient to the EU by passing the WA.

    Now that trust in the Conservative party to deliver Brexit is in tatters, it is no surprise that the Brexit Party is riding high the opinion polls.

    Changing the leader to a brexiteer, with a brexiteer cabinet, would be a step in the right direction, but the party would still be filled with MPs who wish to thwart the result of the referendum. If the WA is passed, then we can say farewell to the Conservative party being a significant force in British politics.

    Only by preparing for and embracing a clean Brexit will the party have a chance of reversing its fortunes.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:47 am | Permalink

      Totally agree, but we’d be taking the word of inveterate liars never to lie again. Would we really trust Theresa May or any other sneaky grubby little pro-EU toady ever again after this mess?

      We should not feel any sympathy for May, just as we are right not to feel sympathy for that other ‘super-wet nonentity’ who denied us a vote on the Maastricht Treaty. And one Gordon Brown who could have given is a vote on Lisbon. The political careers of all three look like ending the same way, but failure is no disgrace to them as rubbish politicians always seem to land on their feet after betraying the nation.

      There are still good people in the parliamentary Conservative party who have been consistently against the EU all along and thus worthy of support, but they are few in number. If the rest were booted out, I would dance in the street!

      As a person who believes honesty is a duty, I hate to see crooks feathering their own nest at our expense, whilst selling this nation into servitude.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

        Indeed

    • Chris
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

      It is reported again that Boris will offer Amber Rudd the Chancellorship in his bid to become leader. Pure opportunism. Absolute disaster for the country and Brexit. I sincerely hope that Amber Rudd is shown the door by her constituency very soon. I understand she has only a small majority and would be hugely vulnerable in a GE.

      In my view she is not Conservative, she was over promoted, and has spent her time scheming and plotting, possibly aided and abetted by her brother, to overturn the Referendum result. She should be thrown out for betraying us all.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        Rudd is appalling, she even said she was sad when the TIG remainer loons left.

    • javelin
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

      I think you are correct and the public narrative will shift to focus on the Brino MPs and not just the brino PM. I’m not sure how the Conservative Party are going to counter being the party of brino.

      You can’t say they weren’t warned. They just couldn’t see out of their bubble.

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

      If the WA is passed, my fear is that the EU won’t ALLOW us to install a Eurosceptic party at the next election, if election there be. Why would they if they hold all the power, all the cards, all the influence, all the control?

      Perhaps the remainers have factored this in and know that if it IS passed then their jobs are guaranteed safe, courtesy of their EU masters.

      Or am I being a conspiracy theorist?

      • Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

        Remain MPs, I mean, of course.

  13. Steve
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    JR

    I really don’t see a change of course now as helping to save the Conservative party. The irony is that Mrs May’s deceitfulness is a prime factor in exposing the anti – democratic and anti – English mindset of Parliament, and what a right Pandora’s box the revelations have turned out to be !

    It is too late, even if Mrs May took us out on ‘no deal’ immediately we cannot allow the presence of the current crowd to continue in Parliament. They’ve shown that this country has been hoodwinked for many decades. They must, and will be, out on their backsides at the next general election. There is no forgiveness for what they have done.

    However if some were alarmed by the recent local election results, they’re in for the shock of their lives concerning the European elections – where we will have real choice.

    I think the few MP’s who do have their heads screwed on should be questioning Mrs May’s mental ability, quite frankly. Undoubtedly she has followed the path of many a despot in becoming consumed by her own lies. What we see of her now is just despotic madness.

    • Sharon Jagger
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:06 am | Permalink

      Steve

      I totally agree with all you say. And I believe the powers that be have been preparing us for decades with all the nanny state interference, political correctness, loss of freedom of speech, common purpose chaos etc. I could go on, but it’s succeeded in some youngsters group thinking, not questioning things or researching for themselves. Look at the behaviour of Cambridge university denying things that they don’t agree with…refusing speakers etc.

      All intended to prepare us for an anti-democratic Great Britain!

      • Tad Davison
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

        Spot on!

        But once we finally get rid of all the pro-EU rubbish in the Tory party, we need to get rid of all the pro-EU rubbish in the other parties. Only a true Brexit leave insurgent party can relieve us of their curse.

      • Ian wragg
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

        But the plebs won’t wear it. Now it’s out in the open the fightback begins.
        Never again will politicians get away with their lying deceitful ways.
        Interesting times.

      • Steve
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

        Sharon

        Yes indeed Cambridge does have a reputation for turning out certain types of character, as cold war events demonstrate.

    • Chris
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

      Agree completely, Steve.

    • cornishstu
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

      When I see May repeating the the lie that her WA is leaving the Eu it reminds me of Comical Ali when he says there are no Americans in Bagdad.

  14. Dominic
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    You miss the point. This isn’t simply about the betrayal of British democracy and Brexit. This is also about the rise of a form of politics that seeks to silence, control and manipulate the silent majority using identity politics propaganda and laws designed to force conformity. Does that not compute with you? You yourself have voted (albeit whipped) for laws that are at complete odds with your conservative values.

    Why do I pay tax to a State that then uses those taxes to destroy my freedoms, my liberties and treats me with total contempt.

    The atmosphere today is one of self-censor. That’s a deliberate policy of both parties. Your party is culpable.

    • Chris
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

      You have hit the nail on the head, Dominic. There is a much bigger agenda here of a global political elite who are intent on imposing One World Government, using Marxist methods of control. This is why we are facing such ferocious opposition to Brexit because we are challenging a cosy political elite who have held the levers of power for some decades. President Trump cannot be bought so he not under their control, and they are facing an almighty battle with him, determined as they are to oust him. They will not succeed, and P Trump’s victory over the deep state will have enormous (positive) implications for the UK and Brexit, sovereignty and democracy.

      • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

        Well said!
        (Apart from calling them ”elite”.)

        • Chris
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

          You are quite right, L J, there is nothing elite about them.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

      Great post!

  15. Fred H
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Mrs May is not taking any notice of public opinion, the newspapers, the polls. There has always been a very real chance of the WA going through, she never tires of scheming a fresh way to reach her goal. Just like most opinions on here ( and the rest of the electorate) the only way to change is to remove her. There appears no significant numbers of Tory MPs to take action. We predict the break up of the Tory party and its fate to become a minor voice in the wilderness. So be it. It will not be alright on the night, party destiny is to become insignificant for a generation of voters.

  16. DaveM
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    A new PM is the only answer. May will never give up on her awful deal, meaning the country will be in a never ending stalemate, paying a fortune to the EU each day until she is somehow deposed.

    It’s ludicrous to think that this one incompetent person is holding our great country to ransom like this.

    • Andy
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:29 am | Permalink

      A new PM will face the same problems.

      The Parliamentary maths will not change.

      The EU is not going to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.

      If you want a different deal you need to change your red lines.

      • libertarian
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:09 am | Permalink

        Andy

        Wrong , a Brexit PM will be able to handle the whole thing in a different way. We dont want to renegotiate the WA with the EU. We just leave, we dont even need to talk to the junta until we’ve left, we can then offer an FTA , the crumbling EU can then take it or leave it

        Meanwhile in France for the 26th consecutive weekend 100,000’s of people demonstrating against the “Euro Elite” .

        You’re on the wrong side of history little Andy

        • jerry
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

          @libertarian; So what will this great new PM, presumably you mean a Tory PM, not JC nor some grand coalition), do when the europhile wets walk out of the Tory party, cross the floor, or just sit on their hands.

          Sorry but Andy is correct, the Parliamentary maths will not change – it needs to be put back to the people, as a How-to referendum, if it is not now to late for even that (the latest opinion polls suggest it might be), otherwise Brexit will be lost, even May’s damned awful WA version of it.

          Carry on daydreaming, I know what I’m voting for on the 23 May, an insurance policy, the best EP candidate who will represent me and my country in the EP/EU assuming Brexit does not happen, if it does the poll is irrelevant. We will need hard working MEPs, not hot air and sound-bites….

          Meanwhile in France for the 26th consecutive weekend 100,000’s of people demonstrating against the “Euro Elite” .

          Out of a population of 65,000,000 (European France, not over seas territories), so quite meaningless democratically, even after adjusting for those who have no voting rights… You’re on the wrong side of statistics Libby….

          • libertarian
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

            Jerry

            What if, maybe when. Your speculation isn’t an argument based on facts . It is a fact that a new PM of any kind can choose to handle things in a different way. How some of the weasels in parliament choose to handle that is entirely speculative. If they cross the floor then a general election will be called and maybe a lot of your floor crossers won’t be reelected

            Statistics dont fight with police every weekend. Statistics dont blockade roads and ports . Statistics dont bring things to a halt . If you had been to France recently I think you would have a very different view of things. Even small rural towns far away from Paris have blockades and yellow vests in the streets every weekend

            As to being represented in the EU parliament , what on earth for? It is entirely powerless

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 8:35 am | Permalink

            @libertarian; You accuse me of “speculation” (based on the known facts) whilst you post a “daydream” (based on your wish list), ho-hum…

            As for the French Yellow Vest protests, indeed, no statistic fight with the police every weekend, or any weekend for that matter, in the same way as the statistics didn’t do battle with the Police in 1984/5 during the NUM dispute either, are you claiming that the majority of the UK electorate or even just the entire Trade Union movement (at the time) agreed with such behaviour, heck even some within the NUM refused to support such protests.

            Also, before you protest to much (pun intended) best you remember that many of the Yellow Vests are are just as much against your favoured Capitalism as they are what you call the “Euro Elite”.

            The EP is not totally irrelevant these days, any more than the US Senate or their lower house is. Granted, you might not approve of it, or what they create (such as the EAW), you are entitled to your opinion.

          • libertarian
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

            Jerry

            You really are losing it these days

            I posted one of a number of scenarios in RESPONSE to your incorrect facts

            Are you saying that the Thatcher battle with the unions in general and NUM in particular didn’t change anything? Because I think they did. In the same way that the yellow vests will have an impact on France.

            Capitalism is a marxist construct which I dont believe in. I believe in Freedom and free markets. I didn’t say I agreed with the YV’s , you really dont understand very much these days Jerry do you

            Whats the official opposition called and who leads it in the Euro Parliament Jerry?

        • Richard Evans
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

          Libertarian, I agree with one exception. The Establishment and the conservative party cabal which controls the UK will NEVER allow a BREXIT PM. If Establishment puppet MAY steps down or is removed beware of Sajiv David, the sleeper cell. We have to change the whole system which starts at the top of the Establishment pyramid.
          Oh how we need a Donald Trump, whom I admire He is fighting his own Establishment and he will WIN.

          • libertarian
            Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

            Richard Evans

            Maybe so, but then at the forced GE I think you’ll find that the Brexit Party will cause a major upset

          • jerry
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:44 am | Permalink

            @libertarian; “the Brexit Party will cause a major upset”

            Yes, allow Corbyn to win a majority, or at least allow a Lab/LD coalition. Vote TBP or UKIP, get an even more europhile govt…

          • libertarian
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 10:34 am | Permalink

            Jerry

            Hmm I think you havent grasped whats happening

            5 million Labour voters wont vote Labour because Labour ( this week want to remain, with a CU and a second referendum )

            Brexit has killed the old two party state stone dead

            We have suffered what we suffer because of people like you. Too scared to change anything in case it lets the others in. Well so what if Corbyn is PM they are no more socialist than May and the tories.

            Disruption and change is the order of the day

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 11:38 am | Permalink

            @libertarian; “Brexit has killed the old two party state stone dead”

            Remind me how many MPs UKIP have in the current post 2017 parliament, how many did they have in the 2015 parliament… If Brexit has killed the two party system it is not the Brexit obsessed parties who appear to be benefiting!

          • libertarian
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

            Jery

            Oh my word , you’ve lost the plot big time

            UKIP has nothing to do with any of this. They are a defunct rabble of etc ed

            Lets try again for the hard of thinking

            A referendum was held in 2016 won by Leave

            A date of 29th March 2019 was set as leave date

            2017 election consisted of two main parties with manifestos committed to leaving on 29/5/19

            THERE HASNT BEEN AN ELECTION since they both ratted on the deal

            There is only one Brexit party of note and they are leading the polls. UKIP are dead but still polling better than the main remain party of Change Remain Tigger

            Come back in a couple of weeks and tell me again how TBP hasn’t changed anything

          • jerry
            Posted May 14, 2019 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

            @libertarian; What will one MP do, assuming TBP win the upcoming UK parliamentary by-election. It is you who have lost the plot, you are also starting to contradicting yourself. Or did someone else, using your screenname, post the following?

            As to being represented in the EU parliament , what on earth for? It is entirely powerless

            http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/05/12/the-latest-opinion-polls/#comment-1020363

            Try getting up earlier!…

          • libertarian
            Posted May 15, 2019 at 9:38 am | Permalink

            Blimey

            You need help Jerry

            YES i posted that , yes I stand by that and no where have I contradicted that. You really do talk drivel. YOU claim the the EU parliament is worthwhile not me . I just asked you a question you can’t answer

            Do you really not understand that its not about elected politicians anymore ? Its the destruction of the party system, the membership, underlying support and funders are all walking away from the two main parties.

            Do you not understand that the “party” leading the polls after only 6 weeks of existence has no policies, has no manifesto its anti politics

            Try getting a 12 year old to explain it to you

        • longinus
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

          Little Europeaner Andy

      • Ginty
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:32 am | Permalink

        CHUK languishing bottom at 3% Andy.

      • Steve
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

        Andy

        “A new PM will face the same problems.”

        Depends, if the new one has any balls.

        Besides it isn’t that difficult …..make me PM for a week and we will be out, there will be no more EU fishing vessels in our waters, Tusk will be thoroughly humiliated, and we will be open for business with the rest of the world.

        We will recommence shipbuilding, equally between Scotland and the north east yards.

        Scottish sea areas will be theirs, ours will be ours.

        I’d also flood the Channel tunnel.

        • piglet
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

          You’ve got my vote!

        • Andy
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

          Oh dear. Little man syndrome.

          • Steve
            Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

            Oh dear, yellow belly syndrome.

        • jerry
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:27 am | Permalink

          ‘Steve; “Depends, if the new [PM] has any balls.”

          You mean like MT… 🙂

          More seriously, it matters not what the any new PM has or not, what matters is if he or she has enough MPs left to get his or her ideas through – democratically.

          If the Brexiteers can play hard ball in a minority parliament so can those that support Remain. Even with a good majority, such as the one TM chucked away in 2017 there might still not have been enough non-factional votes to get any option through. Perhaps that is why TM gambled, trying to maximise her majority, thinking that JC & Labour would fail like Foot did in 1993, one can do get a lot of controversial policy through when you have something like a 144 seat majority even with decent on your own side.

          I can now understand why so many Brexiteers decided either not to stand or dropped out of the leadership race, what a poisoned chalice is it.

          PS, cut the silly insults, @Andy is just as entitled to state his opinion as you or I are.

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

      A new PM with different ”advisors” or at least strong enough to stand up to them.

      It’s not surprising that we saved Europe from itself (or the Germans) in two world wars – thank goodness we did – but in those days we didn’t have a fifth column with such power in our own back yard working against us.

  17. MickN
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    ALL mps should be made to sit down and watch the documentary shot behind the scenes. Then and only then might some of them realise why we despise them so much for trying their best to keep us shackled to this debacle.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

      Mick,

      I agree in principle with that point, except the present crop of MPs in the main are so aloof, they are not on our wavelength. We cannot ascribe to them the principle of rational thought.

      In the first instance, they cannot see their error. In the second instance, they won’t properly realise that we detest them unless we bellow it in their ears.

    • James1
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

      It is shameful beyond words that the entire current Cabinet voted to shackle the UK to Mrs May’s putrid vassalage treaty, and continue to say that it is a ‘good deal’. How dare they. The sooner they are removed the better and if we have to wait until the next GE for this to happen and the other betrayers to be removed as they assuredly will be, then so be it. The Conservative Party should have been the Brexit Party, regrettably it is not, and they will pay the price starting with short shrift in the European Parliament elections.

  18. Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    Thank you, Sir John, for keeping us informed every day. I’m sure we all appreciate this little haven of sanity that is your blog, before we can face reading the MSM (main stream mania). I know I do.

    • M Davis
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

      L Jones: … Thank you, Sir John, for keeping us informed every day.

      I second that!

  19. Mark B
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    . . . I am urging the Conservative government to change its approach to our exit from the EU.

    Steady now Sir John, you don’t want to be labeled a Populist 😉

    Judging from your previous article I am afraid to say the government do not have a very good track record of listening to your advice. They won’t, as yet, even answer some basic questions from you.

    Labour is playing your government along. It is dragging it out in the hope that you will have to contest the Europarl Elections and, after a pretty bad drubbing, probably demand another no confidence vote. And personally, this time I think they might win.

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

      It really doesn’t matter what they do, or what happens – just as long as May’s surrender document isn’t voted through. Once that is rejected the battlefield will be clearer.
      (If it isn’t rejected, the odds will be overwhelming and the EU will have its long-awaited upper hand.)

  20. JoolsB
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    I think it is too late for your party now John but hopefully not too late for the country. May is deluded & thick skinned and very possibly mentally unstable and the only thing she cares about now is her ego which means she won’t budge from trying to get her awful surrender treaty through. She and all those toadie Tory MPs around her couldn’t care less about the humiliation she is heaping on our country or her proposed £39 billion strait jacket. Hopefully the Labour party will keep playing their games of stringing her along but with no intention of giving in, unless of course this awful woman gives into their demands for a customs union and second referendum.

    The reason the Conservative party is about to be history is as much down to Tory MPs including I’m sorry to say yourself John who have failed to get rid of her. What we have seen from this shambles is that we are being governed by a bunch of light weight lefty EU loving political pygmies who couldn’t run a whelk stall let alone a country.

    I have voted Tory all my life but it is the Brexit party for me from now on and that includes the next General Election.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

      Me too Jools

  21. J Bush
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    The question an increasing number are asking is who is pulling her strings? Because one thing is for certain, despite all her lies, she is not working for the best interests of the UK.

    Also, why has one civil servant by the name of Sedwill been given so much power, when he is totally unaccountable to the electorate? This needs to be changed and promptly. It should never have been allowed in the first place.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

      That is a pertinent question JB.

      I have spent much time pondering why so many politicians become Europhiles once they are in power. Cameron and Hague both kowtowed to the EU in government having been staunchly (and believably) sceptic in opposition. Corbyn mellowed his views as leader of the opposition.

      What is in the envelope that is opened when given the keys to power? Or does a civil servant have a word.

      • piglet
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

        It’ll be the Civil Service. The FCO, for one, can’t get its head around a foreign policy in which we’re not in the EU … for geopolitical reasons. The Treasury can’t see beyond Bretton Woods and more latterly the ECB. The world changes but the Civil Service doesn’t. Time for major reform.

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

      Read Richard Littlejohn’s article on Sir Mark Sedwill.
      I believe the people pulling May’s strings are the ones who are supposed to be on our side. Their EU overlords can just sit back and watch, or occasionally toy with our representatives for their own amusement.

  22. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Warnings have been made here by many people over many months that your party is facing electoral meltdown. Nothing has been done to even try and resolve the problem which is ensconsed in 10 Downing Street. She won’t voluntarily leave there until she has accomplished her mission which is to keep the UK under EU control in one way or another. Destruction of your party and the loss of local councillors is just seen as collateral damage to be accepted as part of her objective.
    There must be a death wish amongst Conservative MPs as they fail to tackle the problem or perhaps most of them, unlike the majority of their members and supporters, also see the EU as more important than their party, democracy and the UK.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

      Exactly!

  23. jerry
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    “either Mrs May accepts the Agreement cannot proceed, or a new PM takes over who starts by telling the EU the Agreement is unacceptable.”

    Sorry Sir John but I truly believe parliament and your party have reached stalemate on this.

    As I said a couple of days ago to someone, just suppose the ERG and other Brexiteers manage to oust TM and install a pro-WTO exit PM [1] would the europhiles in your party then not simply withdraw their support, either by sitting on their hands or even worse crossing the floor, allowing Labour to legitimately claim to be the largest single party now and thus the legitimate govt – heck they might not even need a S&D or coalition partner to do so!

    [1] which is what you are asking for above, the EC have stated that the WA will not be reopened

    • libertarian
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:11 am | Permalink

      Jerry

      Possibly , but then that would precipitate a general election and by the time that had happened we would have left anyway

      • jerry
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

        Except the current A50 extension runs out at the end of October IIRC, plenty of time to hold a snap GE, the 1979 GE was forced, called and held in just 38 days…

        • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

          Yes – but the EU didn’t hold all the cards then. If the WA is passed, they will. In those circumstances, why should they allow us a GE?

        • libertarian
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

          Jerry

          Well it depends there is 5 months from now until then with a six week summer recess in between. May has to be booted out, and new PM sworn in, business tabled , then the actions you predict have to happen, then the PM calls a GE and tables the date

          • jerry
            Posted May 13, 2019 at 6:55 am | Permalink

            @L Jones; Their is nothing in the WA that would allow the EU to scrap GE’s in the UK, what is more even if the EC tried to pull such a stunt it is almost certain the EP (never mind the UN) would stop such nonsense, otherwise it would set a precedent across the EU27. You are letting your paranoia towards the EU get the better of you…

            @libertarian; We are in early May, plenty of time before the summer recess. In any case recesses are simply by convention [1], not set in stone, and even if they were there is still enough time to hold an autumn GE after their return, yes I know the party conferences normally take place in the autumn but that is again convention not stone.

            This is why I favour a (How-to) referendum to break the stalemate, a far more controllable situation, risking a GE is playing Russian roulette.

            [1] in 1939 MPs were called back from their summer recess. Not sure that Brexit can be compared to war, although some people’s rants sound like a declaration of war, but it is still becoming a full-on national emergency -and fast.

          • libertarian
            Posted May 15, 2019 at 9:42 am | Permalink

            Jerry

            Er THINK IT THROUGH

            We are speculating on a scenario where a NEW BREXIT supporting PM is installed and being undermined by rebels in their party. Why would the new PM do the things you say? Why wouldn’t a new Brexit PM try to hang it out as long as possible ?

            As has been patiently explained to you, Your so called How to Referendum would be totally undoable. You would need more than 20 options for a start . You just aren’t thinking this through in your desire to have what you want rather than what the majority want .

            Logic dear boy logic

      • Jagman84
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

        Indeed, a WA was not required for leaving the EU. Nor the “permission” of Parliament to do so. David Cameron made it clear before the referendum by stating, “We will implement what you decide”. A new PM would simply have to keep that promise.

        • jerry
          Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:03 am | Permalink

          @Jagman84; “Nor the “permission” of Parliament to do so.”

          Wasn’t that idea tested in the High Court and found to be untrue, hence why Parliament did have to vote to approve the sending of our A50 letter. It is true that once our A50 letter was approved and sent there does not need to be any further “permission” from Parliament – hence why Remainers scrambled to pass the Letwin/Cooper Bill to ‘outlaw’ a WTO exit, but quite how they that law can be uphelded again the default as set by international treaty…

          ““We will implement what you decide”. A new PM would simply have to keep that promise.”

          Except Norway is not a member of the “European Union”, nor is Switzerland, Monaco Iceland and Andorra… We voted to Leave, that is all, and the problem.

  24. Nigel
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Yes, but was the Conservative manifesto written in the abstract? We are no longer in the abstract now.
    The party will be haunted with this for years to come.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

      When an institution (in this case, a political party) has become so irretrievably corrupt and morally vacuous that it consistently lies to the public and even to the very grassroots members who have worked tirelessly to keep it afloat, then its demise is no bad thing. But the Tory party isn’t the only one. Labour, the Greens, the Lib Dems, the CUK party aren’t worth a candle. The Brexit party is the only one I could now vote for with a clear conscience and without reservations.

  25. James Dixon
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    After nearly 3 years it’s too late to change my mind now. My postal vote has arrived, the Brexit Party box has my X in it, and it’ll be in the postbox this evening.

    If the Conservative Party can rid the country of May by next weekend, install a brexiteer like Raab in the next 6-8 weeks, then go WTO in October then your party may have a chance of recovering not only my vote but millions like me.

    If not, no worries…hopefully Nigel will have enough commons seats to be pulling the strings after the next general election

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

      The duplicitous May has done so much damage to the nation and to the Tory party, the feedback I’m getting suggests a reluctance to take on the role of party leader, and thus, Prime Minister. And why wouldn’t otherwise serious contenders shy away?

      Who the hell wants to been seen as the PM who took the party to possibly it’s biggest ever defeat when it was in truth, all the fault of their predesessor?

      And how would a Brexiteer lead a Tory party that has allowed itself to be taken over by treacherous remainers?

      It isn’t just May the Tories need to get rid of, it’s the Rory Stewarts, the Dominic Grieves, the Kenneth Clarkes, the Nicholas Soames and all the other toxic types who would see this nation laid low and in perpetual servitude.

      • piglet
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

        …Claire Perry, David Gauke, Greg Clark, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd … I could go on and on: they are too numerous to mention.

        • Fred H
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

          TAD and piglet….yes they are the first batch of an alarming number that need to be culled. No way back for the Tories with that lot and many more. Wait until CHUK, the Greens and Libdems call the shots on which possible coalition to join. Tories won’t be needed when Brexit or Corbyn have most of the seats.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

      “If not, no worries…hopefully Nigel will have enough commons seats to be pulling the strings after the next general election”

      I do hope not James. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage serve a single purpose and being the party of government is not it. Do you want policy to be set by Clare Fox and her ilk or do you just want to get out of the EU quickly and efficiently?

  26. Bryan Harris
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    Nothing will change with May – she is set on her course and nothing will make her alter the destination she has set for us – Disaster. She must go now.

    She has ignored every type of pressure applied – It really is time that the chairman of the 1922 committee showed some strength in this matter…

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

      Brady seems always to be beaming after he’s met Theresa May. Could it be that he’s told her, ‘Dont worry Prime Minister, we all want the UK to stay in the EU really. Privately, we support you, this is just going through the motions to look as though we are taking everyone’s concerns seriously’.

      When it comes to Tory duplicity, NOTHING would surprise me these days!

  27. cynic
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    After watching the BBC program, it is clear that May and her team were not negotiating to get us out of the EU, but to keep us in. She has to go.

  28. Everhopeful
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    Not just saying this… but I really,really can not work out what the govt is thinking.
    The only conclusion I keep coming back to is that it has a truly totalitarian future in mind for us.
    Tie us into the “Deal” and then abolish parliament?
    Otherwise why on earth would any politician see their party laid waste like this?
    Why, unless it thought freedom was about to be abolished would a govt inflict not just a law but an immutable way of life on a population that had clearly said.
    “NO we do not want that.”

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

      Perhaps a totalitarian future which means that their jobs are all secure, so long as they have supported the surrender document?
      People keep speaking of ”the next GE” but that seems overly optimistic if May’s WA should be voted in. In such a case, there wouldn’t be a ”next GE”, except a pretend one on the EU’s terms.
      Or am I still being a conspiracy theorist?

      • Everhopeful
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        L.Jones
        Agree..very much the sort of scenario I was imagining.
        Definitely not conspiracy.

  29. Leslie Singleton
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    Dear Sir John–Little that is said perplexes me more than “now is not the time to change the leader”–To me it is blindingly obvious that the present apology for a leader is naff in the extreme and it is high time we had a new one. To hell with her being asked to “clarify” (joke) when she will exit–I don’t want a plan, clarified or otherwise, for her departure, I just want her departure. Imagine the joy of a new inspiring leader, optimistic about Brexit of course. It is so obvious that if we left on WTO it would only be a matter of weeks before negotiations started on an FTA. How could they not? Nobody is saying that we are not physically close to the Continent and we are their biggest customer.

    • Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

      AND a leader who has not voted for the surrender treaty EVEN ONCE. Otherwise, how can we be sure that they (whoever they are) will not resurrect it? If they voted for it EVEN ONCE, they are suspect.
      Unfortunately and sadly, there aren’t many as honourable as our host who actually WANT the job. Priti Patel springs to mind, or that nice Mr Baker (it seems).

  30. Paul Cohen
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Agreed 100%.

    The electorate are in desperate need to a rest from watching this slow motion car-crash!

    Mrs May has proved beyond any doubt her unsuitability to be PM, the sheer incompetence displayed in these wasted years of her appointment do nothing for the reputations for those who appointed her.

    W are now waiting apparently for her to announce her own date for stepping down – what a farce – this now gives her the opportunity to bring on her own speciality of can kicking!

    Time is now really running out, and the means of her departure must be accelerated , no more of this pathetic wait and see attitude by the Tory top brass.

  31. Arthur Wrightiss
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    I have said similar things in emails to my Conservative MP.
    Back room deals with a bunch of Marxists and London millionaire champagne socialists is electoral suicide as the Tory Party will soon find out.
    My MP hasn’t had the time to honour me with a response.

  32. glen cullen
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Sir John
    Its to late for the Tory Party
    Only a WTO leave option will save the party and that needs to be declared next week
    Can’t your fellow MPs see the clear message from the voters

  33. Nickyroberts
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    Sir John, although I value your opinions and the time you take to maintain this site, it would appear that all your entreaties to party officials are falling on deaf ears. The Conservative party want our votes but then row back on manifesto commitments and continue to deceive. It would seem now that the cat is out of the bag, the British public are aware of this deception and are turning their back on the Conservatives because of it. If the party do not listen to you, or even bother to reply to correspondence from you, what chance do the rest of us have? Where is the respect?

  34. Geoffrey
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    There is no EU offer of talks on free trade UNLESS the UK commits to the Irish backstop, paying its bills, and guarantee of citizens’ rights. Please stop misleading your readers sir, and please begin to behave like a serious and responsible politician.

    reply Not what Malmstrom said

    • margaret
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

      I was wondering about that.

  35. Sir Joe Soap
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Too late.
    You and your colleagues have ignored warnings here at your peril.

  36. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    Good luck John. She must be made to uphold democracy or find her party out of the running for a long time. It will be like throwing the UK to the wolves.

  37. Shieldsman
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    The Abyss, the unknown, the leap in the dark – the outcome of the Transition Period negotiations and the Political Declaration. Will we get our fishing rights back or end up back in the CFP. What form of Customs Union? Will the EUCJ still be in control?

  38. javelin
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    Things are going to get a lot worse. There is a black swan flying over the pond.

    I had a look at the 2015 Investigatory Powers Bill – introduced by Theresa May as Home Secretary.

    It appears that Cameron MUST have known (para 24/2).

    “24/2 Before deciding whether to issue the warrant, the Secretary of State must consult the Prime Minister.”

    If Cameron knew then Obama knew. I think this is clear evidence that even if somebody below Obama set this whole thing up then Cameron would have asked Obama if it was OK. If Cameron knew then May would have gone to court to get the warrant.

    etc ed

  39. nhsgp
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    Farage can always unilaterally revoke the deal.

    He just says, we aren’t goiing to pay the 80 bn a year cost of the deal.

    • Fred H
      Posted May 14, 2019 at 10:10 am | Permalink

      nhsgp…Yep. We simply say ‘that so-called deal was a stitch-up by you lot, to entrap a weak, feeble-minded lady into signing things she had no grasp of. We hereby tear up the supposed agreement with the UK, it was in fact between the EU and a lady called Mrs May. We will not pay the exorbitant severance sums, you can whistle for it’.

  40. A.Sedgwick
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    May has to be “congratulated” for achieving the near impossible in politics:

    Lost the support of Leave and Remain MPs,

    Brought Farage out of political retirement,

    Turned Corbyn from a leadership joke into a likely PM,

    Made the CP a successor to the Liberal Party,

    Lost executive control of government to the legislature,

    and more………

    • Fred H
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

      I can see Merkel, Macron & Putin toasting each other over a video link.

      ‘Mission almost accomplished would be the toast,’ Followed by ‘which Honourary EU post should we create for our dear friend Theresa?’

  41. Iain Gill
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    Quite a lot of Conservative party MP’s encouraging the voters to vote for the Brexit party openly on twitter. says it all about how dead in the water the Conservative party is.

    I take it that since I have only had a leaflet from one party, the Brexit party, that it is the only party that actively is seeking my vote. My guess is that the local Conservatives are refusing to deliver leaflets, especially one cooked up by May the liar.

    • Steve
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

      Iain Gill

      “My guess is that the local Conservatives are refusing to deliver leaflets, especially one cooked up by May the liar.”

      More like they’re too afraid to be seen out in public, let alone knock on voter’s doors

      • Iain Gill
        Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:20 am | Permalink

        well over two thirds of Conservative councilors are planning to vote for the Brexit party, probably higher in the membership, so hardly surprising there is nobody prepared to deliver Conservative leaflets, especially a leaflet which presumably supports May’s position.

  42. Alan Jutson
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    Many of us would agree with you John.

    The problem is Mrs May and her supporters have now made the Conservative Party not the Nasty Party, but the Toxic Party.

    It would seem that your thoughts are now, and have been, the minority view within the Party.

    I sent a letter to the Party Chairman and Chief Whip some 9 months ago (copy to yourself) outlining exactly what had gone wrong, how it was going to get worse, and what was needed to correct matters.

    You responded rapidly with a response, but afraid neither of the other two bothered for months, until you chased them up for which I thank you, and then all I got was the usual standard spin and lies from an office worker, who refused to put their name on the reply.

    Face facts, your Party is at the moment completely an utterly out of control, is holed below the waterline, and drifting in dangerous waters towards the rocks.
    The Captain and Crew are meanwhile in a trance like state thinking all is well and not seeing or believing what is going on all around them.

    No wonder the polls are showing the figures as they are.

  43. Gareth Warren
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    I saw the OpinionResearch poll that showed the brexit party extending its lead

    BREX: 34% (+6)
    LAB: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 12% (+5)
    CON: 11% (-3)
    GRN: 8% (+2)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)
    CHUK: 3% (-4)

    The reason for the conservative drop is obvious, they have not delivered brexit and to borrow a phrase from your excellent book (half way through), the electorate does not believe Theresa May’s excuses.

    Interestingly the Labour vote has dropped as they edge towards remain and Farage is targeting their vote base. The libdems do relatively well too collecting the remain vote that does not respect democracy, a bit like UKIP swerving into BNP/NF territory I believe this won’t help them in the long run.

    The huge result from those paragons of democracy who seek to fundamentally change British politics by changing nothing at all is great, a “Jeb!” sized 3%. If further remainers threaten to walk out when we get a pro-brexit PM they will have no hope of reelection.
    The fate of ChangeUK – the independent group was due to their untrustworthy nature, but I believe it also shows the failure of NewLabour style spin – no one believes it.

    The best course for conservatives is clearly cancelling EU elections and delivering WTO brexit, after these elections survival is possible yet requires the same action, but will require real leadership – not a technocrat that can give good speeches such as May. I’m not hopeful your good advice will be taken, but it will sink in afterwards.

  44. Edwardm
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    I wish you success but past performance of the PCP gives little hope.
    Many Tory MPs will find the cliff edge that matters is the next GE, not imaginary worries about a clean Brexit.

    • Ginty
      Posted May 13, 2019 at 5:38 am | Permalink

      Anna Soubry’s found her cliff edge ! And jumped off it.

  45. Everhopeful
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    I want to go back to Sunday mornings of buttered toast and tea.
    Unthreatening newspapers, benign tv programmes and Church bells.
    I thought I was paying MPs to protect me and my way of life.
    But they weren’t…they were plotting against all that I held dear.
    And now I must be constantly afraid, wary and alert to all threats ( and there are many).

    • Andy
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:37 am | Permalink

      It is Brexit which has threatened all of those things.

      • Tony Sharp
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

        Tories will come Sixth.
        May is happy to destroy the Party so long as the UK RemaINs in EU.

      • Everhopeful
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

        Andy
        Since when did we have Brexit?

      • Tad Davison
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

        Please differentiate yourself from others so we know which one you are.

      • Jagman84
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

        Everhopeful’s wishes are everything that you despise! As a hater of the UK, you should be welcoming Brexit, if it is to be so damaging as you claim.

  46. Alan Jutson
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Just for clarity of the above.

    JR is my constituency MP, hence the reason for his involvement.

  47. robert valence
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    Dear Sir John,
    I have always respected you as a politician – with integrity; something which unfortunately is lacking in many others.
    You have admirably expressed the failings of the WA Surrender Document. But it’s only now that all this has sunk in that I realise what a complete mess this Tory government & its predecessor have made of all they’ve done.
    Look at decisions: 5G – Chinese against considered opinion, next nuclear power – Chinese with contracted unit cost astronomic; RFA ships – not in British yards; HS2 of marginal benefit & vast cost.
    Health: Insufficient medics being trained, insufficient H.E places hence need to import from abroad, often impacting the host countries
    Police/Justice: Reduced policing on streets but vast increased knifings, acid-throwing, shootings; dubious sentencing for major crime but out-of-proportion for others.
    Education: Far too many unsuitable university students, taking useless courses with no career prospects , being landed with vast debts which they’ll never be able to pay & the country fits the bill. Schools teaching sex & strange deviations to toddlers.
    I could go on – but this lot doesn’t represent any achievement as “May’s Legacy”. This government deserves to fall & to be replaced by the real conservatives – the BREXIT party.

  48. Nigl
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    The government’s refusal to further the offered free trade agreement only confirms, in the voters minds, that their overall objective is to ‘stay’ in the EU. This is driving (my) support for Farage. When will someone listen?

  49. Ginty
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    I voted for the Tories because they said no deal was better than a bad deal. The WA is a bad deal.

    It is NOT leaving the EU. It is NOT Brexit.

    • Paul Mellor
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

      It is a terrible deal. It is also leaving the EU. Which you voted for. Suck it up, and face up to what you have done to our childrens’ futures

      • Ginty
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

        I’m afraid that it’s the future that sore losing Remainers have secured us.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

        Paul ? Andy ?

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

        The remainders have got us this deal or as Farage pointed out, this new treaty. When are you remainers going to admit you’ve screwed up?

    • outsider
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

      Agreed Ginty. Why do MPs and interviewers not ask the Prime Minister what a bad deal would have looked like?
      Would love to have heard Brian Walden courteously but relentlessly dissecting the WA with her in one of his hour-long interviews. His death, announced today, reminds me why I never bother with any of today’s political interview shows.

  50. Christine
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    I think the Conservative Party has left it too late. The damage has been done. The British people are sick of the lies and deceit. The PM should have been removed after her last disastrous GE campaign. It was clear then that she had lost the plot. She is like a despot dictator who only believes in her way and doesn’t listen to the advice of others. She and her Remainer cronies have opened the door to the prospect of a disastrous Corbyn led Government. If only she had left with No Deal in March. Our only hope now is if The Brexit party can make inroads into the northern Labour vote.

    • libertarian
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:23 am | Permalink

      Christine

      What the Socialist Tory party dont get is its not just Brexit, its tax and spend whilst claiming austerity, its bedroom tax, dementia tax, IHT, removal of property rights, claw back of tax , anti small business legislation , nanny state regulations, white elephants like HS2 whilst ignoring airport runways, wokeness virtue signalling, policing twitter whilst vast numbers of youths are stabbed to death, green crap and no viable energy plan etc etc etc

      Its the barefaced lies, the treating the electorate with contempt, attacking small business owners , the constant messing with education making it worthless, failure to address the failings of the NHS

      This government May & Hammond have been worse than any Labour/Socialist government in my lifetime.

  51. Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    The majority of the electorate, with the exception of your diary followers, do not know just how toxic the WA is. They have only been allowd to see it in terms of the Irish border. A red herring if ever there was one. The establishment have seen to it that all other unacceptable aspects of the WA remain hidden.

    Both major parties and the torys in particular only have themselves to blame for the electorate’s response to their duplicitous reaction to the referendum result. I would predict that the response is only going to gather momentum, not the Marxist one I hasten to add.

    If you fail to act in the way you espouse you will lose the support of the DUP and then quickly move to a general election. If the Brexit Party can be as well organised in the run up to a GE as they have been approaching the EU elections you are in for thin pickings and a minor party status. Do not be deluded into thinking the BP will be a one item party. Practically every contributor to the diary, yourself included, could furnish a list failures in the current political agenda that need highlighting and correcting.
    If you cannot sort it in the next two weeks, the unstopable luge commences it’s trip to the bottom of the hill after the EU election.

    • sm
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:02 am | Permalink

      Agricola – you mention the good organisation of The Brexit Party. I would put this down to Farage having the nous to appoint an exceptional right-hand man, a former Tory Party senior officer, to run his campaign.

  52. Roy Grainger
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    Too late John. It’s over. The Conservatives are finished.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

      And it’s the likes of May that would have finished them!

      This pro-EU disease started over 50 years ago and slowly spread throughout the parliamentary party like a black fungus. Major nearly killed the Tory party in 1997, but rather than quarantine this sickness and surgically remove it, the Tories let it come back again.

      They tried a different strategy this time. Rather than simply deny the people a vote on the Maastricht Treaty, they put up a puppet who just kept lying. One that promised to take us out on March 29th over 108 times, then crept off to her masters in Brussels and Berlin to plead for an extension.

      The problem has always been a gullible public who believed what the Tories said, and to my shame, I am one of them, but never again!

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

        It is amusing to see John Major posturing on Brexit as if he were a respected elder statesman rather than a discredited failed PM who was only a bit better than May. Around 1995 he managed to out-do her and lose 2000 council seats and in the same year the Conservatives polled 18.5%, even lower than their current 19%. I remember it well.

        • Steve
          Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

          Roy Grainger

          Very true.

          When ever I read of or hear John Major’s name I always think of Spitting Image.

  53. William Long
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    The EU election opinion polls certainly look bad for the traditional main parties and dire for the Conservatives; General Election oriented views are no better if ComRes is to be believed.
    Your comment as usual is totally logical, but we are not dealing with a logical person in Mrs May I am afraid. Or if we are, she is coming from a totally different starting point: that in the WA, she has the only answer to Brexit and it is the rest who are standing in its way, therefore she is doing us all a favour by staying in office. I think very little is likely to shift her until December, short of a vote of no confidence being passed in the House of Commons.

  54. John Partington
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    Quite right ,Sir John> We need to leave with no deal and then tell the EU that we will trade with them if conditions suit us. They will come running as they have a lot to lose.

  55. Doug Powell
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    The last paragraph is spot on, JR!

    Unfortunately, there are too few in your party who are able to recognising the obvious! They are prepared to stand idly by, oblivious as the Conservative Party and our Country sink inexorably into May’s Mire!

    Where are the leaders of yesteryear?

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

      Where are the leaders of yesteryear?

      Free-thinking leaders of a Brexit disposition got filtered out in favour of compliant pro-EU placemen years ago. Just look at the fawning Rory Stewart.

  56. Andy
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    The European elections will prove 4 things.

    1) There is no majority for WTO Brexit. Farage explicitly wants one. The vast majority of the electorate will reject him.

    2) The Brexit mandate itself is in question. Remain / soft Brexit parties will win the vast majority of votes.

    3) As I have long predicted Brexit will ultimately kill off the Tories. It will be a slow painful death but these elections will prove it is coming.

    4) Should the policy-less Brexit Party stand in the general election it will win some seats but its main impact will be to guarantee the Tories will lose. Corbyn will lead the next government, probably in a left of centre coalition with the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Greens. The price for this will probably be the cancellation of Brexit and a change to the electoral system.

    This is the final Tory government. Bye bye.

    • Dominic
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

      Poor Andy. Still clinging to his vision of an authoritarian future. You’ll enjoy the company of Marxists like Corbyn and McDonnell. I’m sure you’ll fit right in

    • Richard1
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

      I’m not sure. It seems at least 1/3 are now clearly for wto Brexit. Some people will vote Conservative anyway, but would prefer wto Brexit (or indeed Remain) to may’s Deal. Ditto some loyal labour voters who probably won’t vote for farage as he’s basically a Tory. The mood music could change very quickly with a new Tory leader and pm. I agree the Brexit party will get v few seats in a GE. What surprises me though, in view of the appalling mess the govt have made of negotiations, is how weak the support for reversing Brexit is. Change UK is on <10%! It’s a complete damp squib.

      What I think might happen is Mays deal will scrape through perhaps with the CU. Then leavers will want a new referendum. Which might lead to a bigger majority for leave.

    • Ginty
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

      Hey.

      You weren’t predicting a remain dedicated party to languish bottom with only 3% !

      • 37/6
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

        Andy – So the Tories are toast and languishing 4th because…. May and Hammond are soft Brexiteers ???

        Brexit Party could well win the EU elections but hey, it doesn’t really matter because… the EU Parliament doesn’t matter !!!

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

      Uh ? What are you on about ? Remain is nowhere in the current polling, a “vast majority” reject it – I don’t know why you’re even suggesting it as an option. Remain is not an option – suck it up and move on.

  57. ADAMS
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    I have read a report that says May and Corbyn have got a deal ready but will not announce it until after the EU election . Have a dig around John . It obviously could well be true .
    Nothing divides these two untrustworthy characters . Power retaining is all for them both . The UK is of very little importance compared to their preferment .

  58. Sue Doughty
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    Like a lot of the Conservative party voters I am on strike and shall remain on strike until Mrs May has vacated Downing St and been replaced by a Brexiteer Conservative leader and PM.

    If she is out by Euro polling say I will vote for Daniel and Nirj, but if she isn’t I cannot. She might not have principles but we, the Conservatives, do.

    • Steve in HK
      Posted May 13, 2019 at 4:28 am | Permalink

      Sue, this is part of the problem. Going on strike is the equivalent of giving the party a slap on the wrists.

      Only by voting for someone else will you be grabbing it by it’s shirt lapels, shaking it vigorously whilst shouting “can you hear me now?”.

      Otherwise you will be ignored.

  59. fkc
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    How I agree “everhopeful” when will this madness end. I am totally unable to make sense of anything that is being said. Please Sir John hang on to the shreds and we will have something to build on.

    • Everhopeful
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

      fkc
      Totally agree….JR is an island of normality and calm in all this.

  60. Peter D Gardner
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    The Brexit Party with no candidates in the national elections tops the polls. What does that tell you about the other parties? None of the above.
    We cannot wait until Mrs May’s betrayal is embedded in an international treaty. She must be replaced immediately so she never gets the chance.

  61. Alison
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    Thank you. Completely agree.
    I’m worried to read that Sir Graham Brady is considering another amendment, to the WA bill, to make it law that the ‘alternative arrangements’ to the backstop must be in place by the end of the transition period. Aside from the risk that for some reason that by then the alternative arrangements aren’t in place, in part or whole, being ‘in place’ isn’t tight enough wording.
    If he does and the amendment is passed, I suppose we have to pray the EU don’t agree.
    Sounds like Sir Graham needs to re-read your letter to the Attorney General about the WA.

  62. Shieldsman
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Have people like Andy ever taken a good hard look at the EU’s supposed democratic setup?
    The European Parliamentary elections are pretty meaningless. The MEPs have no power – It is just a talk shop.  A front, for the commission who alone raise legislation.  What can any MEP say they have achieved in Europe other than expressing views?  They can’t block legislation or introduce it.  The fact that they have no power demonstrates the democratic deficit that exists.
    No one voted to be poorer, you lack faith and believe in the economic doomsters who have been proven wrong.

    • Andy
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

      Yes – I have looked at the EU’s setup. It is at least as democratic as Westminster – though I accept many of you are confused by the fact that the system is different. I know many Brexiteers work on the theory that different is bad.

      And the economic case is now clear. You are already poorer than you would have been without the Brexit vote. You will get comparatively poorer for pretty much the rest of your life.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        Right Andy – we are poorer and 500,000 jobs were lost in the year following the Leave vote. Meanwhile, down here on earth …..

      • Edward2
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

        If you look at recent German growth rates and compare it to the UK’s recent growth rates how can your claim we are poorer be true?
        You fall for remainer economists claiming we might have been a bit better off which is academically nonsense guesswork.

      • Ginty
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

        So why wasn’t UKIP winning the EU elections in 2015 influential on Cameron’s negotiations in the EU.

      • Fred H
        Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:43 am | Permalink

        never mind Andy I have every faith in Merkel’s protege in the future stepping in and inviting another 2 million refugees from the UK to come to Germany, where food parcels and soup kitchens will be setup across the channel.

      • libertarian
        Posted May 15, 2019 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

        Andy

        Poorer ? Really wages are rising at 3.3% , there are 830,000 unfilled full-time jobs, we are richer than at any other point in history

        If the economic case is clear you might want to show us the evidence

  63. mancunius
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    You are right in everything you say here, John, but May isn’t listening: she thinks the MEP elections don’t matter, as she is planning to cancel the results before the elected MEPs can take their place in the new Brussels parliamentary session. She assumes that if she can do that, everyone will forget the Tory wipe-out on 23rd May, and thinks that if just clings on to power until 2022, the Brexit Party will be dead by then.

    She has, as the saying goes, another think coming.

  64. Caterpillar
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    The only vote that is a vote for democracy at the forthcoming elections is a vote for the Brexit Party; there is no other choice. The parties in the HoC have shown their contempt for democracy in not ensuring the implementation of a democratic referendum, and just pretending that the WA fulfils the result. Even more shockingly there are parties that ignore the result completely and still campaign for remain. To that end, whatever one voted in the referendum if one believes in democracy there is only one choice. Anyone doing anything else is prepared to throw away democracy.

    It is beyond worrying that other parties and the media are now avoiding this basic truth, attacking the Brexit Party leader rather than admitting the truth and explaining why they are standing against democracy.

  65. javelin
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    After watching Farage on the Marr show I’m surprised why anybody other than directors of companies that rely on cheap labour vote Conservative or immigrants coming for free stuff vote for Labour. It really does look like the Conservative Party is going rapidly down the plug hole and Labour has turned into a support group for immigrants.

    Unbelievable. I would never of guessed political bankruptcy happens so quickly.

  66. John Hatfield
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    Theresa May as the Establishment Army controlling her. They won’t let her listen to you John.

  67. The Prangwizard
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Strikes me every single Tory MP is in denial. A pity but no sympathy from me I’m afraid. The good will need to down with the bad. People need to be careful of the company they keep.

    • Fred H
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

      Sorry if I repeat myself BUT:

      In the last GE there were 90 seats won by less than 5% margin in the constituency.

      PLUS there were 70 seats won by between 5% margin and 10% margin in the constituency.

      Thats 160 Hof C seats easily at risk in the changing landscape…. Be afraid, be VERY afraid.

  68. The Prangwizard
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    It should be noted Sir John is still prepared to see Traitor May continue as PM if she abandons her surrender treaty.

    It follows therefore he thinks she is a proper person to continue in the position; only her WA is a problem.

    • Steve
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

      Prangwizard

      Well what do you expect him to do, call for her removal ?

      You forget the man’s doing his best while surrounded by shysters.

      • The Prangwizard
        Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

        Yes.

  69. matthu
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Robin Tilbrook update on Brexit Betrayal Court Case 10th May 2019

    (Search YouTube using the above terms for an interesting update.)

  70. Steve
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    I see Blair’s at it again. He needs to keep his trap shut.

  71. Steve
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    JR

    “The 2017 Conservative Manifesto was right to say No deal is better than a bad deal, and to propose exit on 29 March 2019.”

    Shame the May government was lying.

    I feel for you Mr Redwood, I honestly don’t know how you manage to stick with it when everything in Westminster seems rotten to the core these days.

    I think you’d be forgiven if you walked away from that cesspit.

    • The Quiet Man
      Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

      Could not agree with you more time John got out this is not a Conservative Party more a Con Party. May cant fool us any more her WA deal is not leaving.

  72. Arnie from Newington
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    The Tories are toast. May tried to position them slightly right of the Labour Party and it hasn’t worked and traditional Tory voters hate her. Now the Brexit party are offering the opportunity to give her the message loud and clear.

  73. Original Richard
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Remainer May has colluded with the EU to produce a totally unacceptable treaty where we accept EU laws, taxes, financial and military commitments and policies such as trade and foreign but with no representation or veto and with no lawful means of exit.

    Having agreed and signed this treaty with Remainer May it is now impossible for the EU to climb down and renegotiate with her a revised agreement, even if she wanted to ask to do so.

    This is why the only way forward is for a new leader to take over and, because of the negotiating black hole Remainer May has left us in, the only way we now can make the EU renegotiate is to say we are prepared to leave on WTO terms and to start preparing fully for this scenario.

  74. Treacle
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    I’m afraid she isn’t listening. She’d rather destroy the Conservative Party than talk to the EU about a free trade agreement. And she will never leave office, whatever the consequences for her party and the country.

  75. Simon Coleman
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    ‘It unites leave and remain voters in opposition’, you say. But they’re opposed to it for different reasons. If you believe most remain voters will come round to supporting no deal, then you’ve reached a new level of delusion. We don’t want it – have you got that?!!

    • Edward2
      Posted May 13, 2019 at 11:14 am | Permalink

      You miss the point Simon.
      For the Withdrawal Agreement to happen it needs to get voted through Parliament.
      It is so bad a treaty it unites both sides of the debate.

  76. Anthony
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    It’s all very well saying it, but even with a leader who wanted to leave without a deal, how would it be achieved when the House of Commons is against and can take control of the order paper? There has never been a satisfactory answer from those pushing this approach.

    Reply I will set out how to do it soon

  77. Ian Pennell
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Dear Sir John Redwood,

    The problem with Britain’s Electoral System is that- if the Right Wing Vote is split it is Labour who benefits: They could win a Majority on 35% of the vote and get enough votes to kick the Conservatives from power on just 30% (if the SNP/ Lib. Dems do well).

    For this to happen the Brexit Party needs take just 15 to 20% of the Vote in a General Election (the Brexit Party will win just a few Seats) whilst the Conservatives get around 25% (and lose over 100 Seats). The Poll in the Sunday Telegraph surely shows that this could happen. And if Jeremy Corbyn is astute and tables another Vote of No Confidence- and the DUP vote against the Government-there could be another General Election this Summer- and before the Conservative Party is rid of Theresa May as Prime Minister.

    Sadly the Brexit Party is unlikely to capitalise fully on Brexiteer rage and get most Conservative and Labour Brexit supporters. Nigel Farage has not had a good week: He had a disastrous interview with Andrew Marr today, a contentious showing on Question Time (on Thursday). Also on Thursday he generated very bad publicity for himself by leaving the scene of a crash involving the Landlord of his local Pub: Even though Nigel Farage was not driving the Publican was furious, barred Nigel Farage from his Pub and then ran to the Press saying “He’s a terrible man..He should not get anywhere near Power!”.

    Thus we may find that 20% is the limit of what Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party will get in a General Election: His Party does not- as yet- have a comprehensive policy platform beyond a WTO “No Deal” Brexit. Thus the Brexit Party will (likely) let Labour in by splitting the Right Wing Vote- rather than becoming a major force able to defeat the Left outright.

    So any means that you – and ERG colleagues have- to bring about a True Brexit has been holed below the waterline. If Nigel Farage does not get his act together you can’t defect to his Party; if you cant get rid of Theresa May and have her replaced with a Brexiteer- you should all resign the Conservative Whip and set up a new proper Conservative Party with real conservative policies. Call it the Freedom Party; perhaps you, Sir could lead it!

  78. Ginty
    Posted May 12, 2019 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Theresa May writes in The Sun today on domestic abuse.

    What is she on ?

    Does she seriously think that anyone believes she’s our leader now and that things are normal ?

  79. Iain Moore
    Posted May 13, 2019 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Looking at the recent history of the polling Conservative support fell off a cliff edge at the end of March. Now I wonder why that was, but I am sure the Remainers in the Cabinet will be saying it was because the Tory party are too hard line Brexit, and failing to offer a closer relationship with the EU.

  80. Foxed
    Posted May 13, 2019 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    The media uncharacteristically is promoting anti- EU sentiment and declaring “they are in a massive lead.”
    Obviously this will encourage Remain voters to get to the polls to avert their doom, and, lessen the resolve of Brexiteer voters to vote as “we will win anyway” coupled with their underlying feeling that “it doesn’t matter what we vote as the outcome will be ignored.”
    Our media are as crafty as vixen well pupped.

  81. Rien Huizer
    Posted May 13, 2019 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    We just finished analysing the YouGov poll (trying to derive the suumptions about turnout that are not published but can be derived with some accuracy from the simultaneousl questions about a Westminster election, especially looking at the figures for parties that tend to turn out no matter what).

    The inpression is that turnout will be at least as high (or low) as for the previous EU elections and that the poor results of Conservative (als a bit less so for Labour are driven not only by voters switching to Farage’s party (although he gets only just below 70 % of those who voted leave in 2016) but also by voters who would normally not have voted but in this case intend to make the effort. That group seems to be highly concentrated in the over 55 yo (around half of probable voters will vote to send Farage to Brussels), exacly where Tory membership (and less so normal constituency) are concentrated.

    So the good news is that damage to the Conservative Party (but look at the awful polling among younger people, for both EU and Westminster) is probably just related to this transitional issue and that a fair amount of Farage voters may actually not show up (and will definitely not show up in a Westminster election). However the future for the Conservatives looks very bleak, given almost non-existent appeal to younger people. Work to do! I’d be more worried about the Greens than Labour, let alone the one trick pony who seems to love MEP status so much that he wants to continue it.

  82. a-tracy
    Posted May 13, 2019 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    I’ve seen lots of tweets and comments from Labour voters over the weekend saying to vote LibDem to overturn Brexit. Labour need to start being clear about their message to their supporters, are they offering to revoke A50 notice this EU election and put the whole thing up for a second vote/referendum or not because that’s what people like Starmer and Watson are saying out of one side of their mouth? John Ashworth says Labour are Pro-Brexit and Mays WA with knobs on, Gardiner says Labour are Anti-Brexit I’m not sure if he supports Mays WA? All very confusing.

    And..the Conservatives just what are your MEPs supporting, May’s WA? Revoke and Second referendum? What does voting Conservative mean to people like you John and Daniel Hannan what an awkward spot your leadership have put you in.

  83. a-tracy
    Posted May 13, 2019 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    I don’t want to know what Nigel Farage said in the past. I want to know who any Brexit MEPs we elect will group-with in the European Parliament. I want to know the same off all the applicant organisations. Who will the Tories sit with, who will Labour and the Lib Dems sit with?

  84. hans christian ivers
    Posted May 13, 2019 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    Sir JR

    There is no majority for your proposal in Parliament at this stage, so why, do you keep insisting on riding on the same old horse, instead of coming up with something that can be supported by a majority in Parliament?

    Reply The EU Withdrawal Act allows us to leave without signing a new Treaty

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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