When will we be allowed out of lockdown?

The government’s scientific advisers come across as pessimists about our future. They seem to think the policy answer for wherever we are in combatting the virus is more and longer lockdown. If the virus is spreading more we need tougher lockdown. If it is falling we need to continue with lockdown as only lockdown can get it falling.Ā  If a tough lockdown is in place and it does not seem to be working it is the fault of the public, as too many must be breaking the rules.

The government accepted nine months of variable lockdowns last year, and sustained it with the public by suggesting as soon as enough people have been vaccinated we can relax. Now the government advisers are telling us it is not as simple as that. They will not be satisfied even when all the people most at risk of dying from the disease have been vaccinated. TheyĀ  say they do not know whether people who are vaccinated can still pass the virus on,Ā  nor how long immunity from vaccination might last. The advisers leave most of us without reliable figures on bed occupancy, NHS capacity and Nightingale use. They have changed the definitions of what is a covid death, andĀ  decline to tell us where the various numbers have to reachĀ  before they would recommend a relaxation.

Ministers say they are following the science. They are of course following a few prominent government scientists, who speak for one version of the science. The science on the pandemic is fortunately changing, as scientists work hard to understand the disease and remedies better, and as they study the pattern of infection worldwide. There are also various divisions of opinion over what treatments work or work best, over vaccines and how much and how often they have to be administered to an individual, over what the rate of spread may be at any given time and how best to conclude someone died of CV 19 rather than other complex conditions that many elderly people also suffer from.

Ministers need to offer us guidance on how we get out of this latest long lock down. Either they need to show us mass vaccination is the promised game changer and they will relax as soon as all the vulnerable who wish have beenĀ  jabbed, or they need to come up with a plan for us to live alongside the virus better if vaccination is not going to ban it.

 

200 Comments

  1. DaveM
    January 25, 2021

    Following science is one thing, allowing scientists to run the country is another. What we are witnessing is the latter. Itā€™s up to politicians to break this never ending cycle otherwise some scientists will treat this like an experiment until the virus is eradicated – ably supported by some of the pinker members of the SAGE committee.

    1. Lifelogic
      January 25, 2021

      I tend to think that most decent (and honest) scientists would do a rather better job than the current PPE, Law and misc Arts graduates. Retired scientists especially and certainly most physicists & engineers (those not seeking research grants or career advancement) are generally rather sound, solid, numerate and good at balancing risks I find.

      Most also, quite rightly, seem to recognise that climate alarmism is a hugely exaggerated, group think religion too. Unlike all but a tiny handful of virtue-signalling but rather deluded MPs.

      1. Julian Flood
        January 26, 2021

        When I see the word ‘Baysian’ in an analysis it bothers me. After this is ov3 we need some rigorous examination of the use of statistics in epidemiology and climate science.

        JF

        1. Julian Flood
          January 26, 2021

          Oops. ‘Bayesian’. It is Burns night.

          JF

    2. MiC
      January 25, 2021

      That is not what is happening.

      The disastrous and inexcusable failures at the start mean that the country is playing catch-up – but failing – requiring these measures repeatedly.

      The Government are simply hiding behind the scientific reasoning for those.

      The anti-mask conspiracy theorists and the rest are prolonging this too.

      John, like far too many on the libertarian fringes, is yet again portraying the emergency measures as the people’s enemy.

      They are NOT. It is the VIRUS.

      I think that this is irresponsible and iniquitous.

      1. porgycorgy
        January 26, 2021

        All three lockdowns were indeed started after the peak in infections ie infections had already started to fall…… but the point is that lockdowns were not needed and respiratory viruses do not markedly respond to non-pharmaceutical interventions…. almost a complete waste of time

      2. Robert Webb
        January 26, 2021

        Wow, that’s the propagandist views verbatim. Impressive.

      3. DennisA
        January 26, 2021

        “The anti-mask conspiracy theorists and the rest are prolonging this too”

        It is deplorable that those who wish genuine science to be brought to bear on the situation, are branded as “conspiracy theorists”. Computer models are not science, they are mathematical constructs, dependent on the quality of data input. These measures clearly are not working. The virus cannot be eliminated, it has been around since at least January last year and is “out there”. The billions thrown down the drain on contact tracing have not solved the problem.

        With regard to “face coverings” they offer no protection whatsoever. The more efficient N95 masks do not stop virus transmission. Neither do face shields have any protective effect. In a supermarket, the air is distributed around the air conditioning system so that everyone is breathing the same air, regardless of masks, social distancing or plastic partitions. They are symbolic only and are used as a visible badge to hector non-compliers.

        Lockdowns are prolonging the epidemic, because shutting people inside concentrates the viral load and produces more sickness. The virus is not imbibed in the outside air, but in closed environments.

    3. Stephen Priest
      January 25, 2021

      Wokingham Borough Council should declare ALL shops and other businesses as essential and let them open.

    4. zorro
      January 25, 2021

      ‘supported by some of the pinker members of the SAGE committee’

      A couple of whom I tried to get through moderation yesterday. These are fully paid up members of the British Communist Party. I kid you not. The government is listening to/being directed by these people. The Party aim is to destroy capitalism. Incredible isn’t it?

      zorro

      1. Everhopeful
        January 25, 2021

        Not just you trying to share same info for months!
        Itā€™s either they want to hide it…or they donā€™t know.

      2. Lynn
        January 25, 2021

        But in plain sight.

    5. Peter
      January 25, 2021

      ā€˜There are also various divisions of opinion ..ā€™

      However, the government line is promoted and no other opinion considered.

      Swayne got short shrift from the Prime Minister at Question Time when he raised the issue.

      Boris mostly has the media in his pocket. Those who offer alternative suggestions get dismissed as ā€˜covidiotsā€™. I can see in the street some people go to inordinate lengths to ā€˜maintain social distanceā€™. Many of the population may believe every word of the official line. The police clamp down hard on anti lockdown gatherings, where BLM would be indulged and knelt down before. People taking a walk in the countryside get harassed for carrying a cup of coffee.

      So unless this changes dramatically Boris will just carry on. He is still collecting a full salary and plans to ā€˜build back betterā€™ and ingratiate himself with the Davos set.

      Who cares if the economy tanks and youngsters education is indefinitely postponed?

    6. Peter M
      January 26, 2021

      Members of advisory groups are freelancing on the broadcast media with comments about how long they want to keep restrictions imposed upon us.
      Advisors should reserve their opinions for the people they are advising and should not have free reign to an not the public.

  2. Mark B
    January 25, 2021

    Good morning

    Now the government advisers are telling us it is not as simple as that.

    Once again we see the goal posts moving. And who else is troubled by today’s headline ?

    We once use to live in a free country where those we elected did so out of service to their nation. Not anymore. Now they get elected to serve others whilst pretending to act on our interests and, offshoring and outsourcing their responsibilities to unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats.

    My advice is. Keep calm and carry on as you were BEFORE the virus. Stuff these people!

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      Keeping calm and carrying on is not possible Mark as nothing is allowed to open.

      Top Gun 2 and James Bond have been put back again, can’t book accommodation in England for a short break can only shop online and can’t go out for a drink or a meal.

      Very nice sledging yesterday in London though.

      1. Mark B
        January 26, 2021

        Sledging is just the start šŸ˜‰

    2. Cheshire Girl
      January 25, 2021

      I must say, I think your last sentence is very irresponsible.

      Some people ie: large gatherings, raves etc. are carrying on as they were before the virus, and consequently, they are spreading it. They neither know, or care, about the situation in our hospitals. I have nothing but contempt for them!

      1. Mark B
        January 26, 2021

        And the government’s actions, would you consider them to be responsible? Hell, they won’t even take responsibility but leave it to others.

      2. DennisA
        January 26, 2021

        “consequently, they are spreading it.”

        How do you know this? Has evidence been provided of direct contact spread from attendees? Of current cases it seems around a quarter are being contracted in hospital. The situation in hospitals is little different to any other crisis year over the last decade, as bed numbers have been drastically reduced. Of course staff are stressed and tired, the same as every year with the surge in respiratory cases as we approach winter. They are in the moment and forget it was the same in previous years also. The constant TV interviews with them do little to help the situation. The extra capacity Nightingale hospitals turned out to be a PR stunt as they cannot staff them. There are many people still in hospital who have had the disease, but still test positive with the PCR test, even 2-3 weeks after symptom, even though they are unlikely still to be infectious.

        The laws and regulations are inconsistent, irrational and in many cases, unworkable.

    3. Hope
      January 25, 2021

      Govt is not following science that is abundantly clear to any reasonably intelligent person.

      Whitty and Valance should be gone by now. Valance chaired meeting last year where it was clear SAGE wanted to scare people into compliance, that is not science!

      Sept fake figures,fake figures for November lock down, December will go ahead not the following day, schools are safe not the following Day! Still no reliable test and trade still no reliable death definition or figures. Come in JR, you are not that stupid.

      There is no reason why schools should be closed, none. You and your party are destroying the futures of ourchildren and country. Literally. They will pay and their grandchildren for your govts stupidity. Try learning from Asian countries. Better still learn from Governor of South Dakato.

      I hope elections will go ahead in May. It is everyone’s duty to vote against your Fake Tory party that is destroying our way of life, economy, education, health.

      We read today in papers from heads of U.K. businesses being told by U.K. Officials to set up EU hubs to stop disruption in exporting! Why create EU jobs? Why transfer businesses to the continent? Johnson’s Servitude agreement unraveling by the day. Further destruction of U.K. Businesses and jobs for the EU! Why not WTO?

    4. Hope
      January 25, 2021

      There is no evidence lock downs work. If so why are we on our third/fourth! Vaccines will not work to prevent spread, we were told that by our experts. So where is the plan to live with it?

      The Great Barrington Declaration far better for health and wealth of nation.

      More studies and evidence that hydroxychloriquine and ivermectin works if taken early. Why has this not been tried JR?

      1. Lifelogic
        January 25, 2021

        Indeed.

      2. David
        January 26, 2021

        More evidence too that vitamin D prevents most seasonal respiratory diseases.

        JR, talk to your colleague David Davis MP who knows a lot about this.

        The drug Azithromycin may help although there is a tendency in the NHS to favour expensive patented treatments when a cheap 1-10 p pill may be equally useful. My high dose vitamin D costs me Ā£4 per year.

    5. Jon
      January 25, 2021

      Agreed

    6. a-tracy
      January 25, 2021

      The problem is Mark, the people I know contracting it are catching it in hospital a colleague of mine and his mother persuaded his father to go in with a knee and leg circulation problem, he didn’t want to go in, he is 79 and they now think he’s got a death sentence having caught it and are blaming themselves. These hospitals are telling us on a daily basis they can’t cope with covid, they’re exhausted and overworked in covid wards. The over 60’s are more terrified of the treatment and hospital because you can’t sort that out for yourself you’re reliant on the State.

      Treatments or therapeutics as the Americans like to them aren’t discussed.

    7. bigneil(newercomp)
      January 25, 2021

      Live in a free country? We are the most watched nation on the planet !!!!!!

      1. Sea_Warrior
        January 26, 2021

        And yet the government hasn’t thought to deploy IR cameras to detect those with a high temperature!!!

    8. Hope
      January 25, 2021

      Two articles in Con Woman by Mark Elsse and Ann Bradshaw is a must read based on your blog JR.

      Firstmthe appalling manipulation of figures by your govt, the second the gross negligence of your govt for,reducing bed availability, reduce nurse staff while increasing population by mass immigration.

      CEO Stevens needs to pay back his salary in full, apologise for his gross incompetence.

      OT but relevant to Johnson again in an article in Con Woman : I note Randell Lane of Forbes now issuing a statement to deny any one who worked for Trump a career or job in the future!

      1. a-tracy
        January 25, 2021

        Wow, Hope, re your last paragraph if politicians on both sides donā€™t put a stop to this no-one will want to go into politics at all. This is what you call witch-hunting Or just plain discrimination – theyā€™d be screaming if this boot was on the other foot! This vilification of the losing side is deplorable. I looked up Forbes because I hadnā€™t heard of it, it seems to be for the ultra rich fortune hunters, big business, investors, entrepreneurs. Trying to cancel anyone that has a different opinion to you is wrong, they call Trump a fascist in The Guardian but doesnā€™t this make even the name callers uncomfortable. Very passive aggressive.

        ā€œIā€™ve been around the block enough to know that it does not serve me well to hang around with people that are like-minded all the time. In fact, it serves me well to hang out with people with great minds, with open minds ā€“ who have different views, opinions, interests, experiences to my own ā€“ because that is how Iā€™m going to learn and grow. And learning and growing is the name of the game.ā€ May Busch leader and coach. This new generation just wants to silence and feel theyā€™re on the only right side.

        1. Hope
          January 26, 2021

          Russia and China stops any and all opposition. Who would have thought this is now the practice of Democrats in the US!

          Unity my arse. Biden said “wage war” and his left wing army is taking up the challenge.

    9. Hope
      January 25, 2021

      +100. Anyone listening to the advice of Ferguson or a body which he is part has lost their marbles.

  3. oldwulf
    January 25, 2021

    The government’s scientific advisers will always err on the side of caution. The economy is not their problem.

    1. JoolsB
      January 25, 2021

      Exactly. They are also continuing to enjoy 100% salaries and pension contributions along with politicians and the rest of the public sector unlike those in the real world who are seeing their businesses and their livelihoods being decimated.

    2. Richard1
      January 25, 2021

      +1

    3. MiC
      January 25, 2021

      John’s term “version of the science” is very dangerous.

      There are some studies which are more rigorous and extensive than others, which narrow down margins of possibility, but they all tell the same basic story.

      He implies that fanciful invention dressed up in scientific language – non-science – is just as valid as assiduous research, to those who want to believe such nonsense, I think.

      And there are plenty, and they are costing many lives.

      1. Louise
        January 26, 2021

        What a load of nonsense. There is no such thing as ā€˜the scienceā€™ – only scientists, who advance knowledge by formulating hypotheses and then testing them rigorously and subjecting them to scrutiny by their peers. Many prestigious scientists, including Prof Sunetra Gupta, Dr Carl Heneghan, Prof Livermore and the Nobel prizewinner Prof Ioniddes of Harvard have a very different interpretation of the data to that offered by the likes of Whitty and Valance. Saying this is not ā€œdangerousā€; what is dangerous is zealots shutting down scientific debate.

      2. Dinger
        January 26, 2021

        77th Brigade even propogandising on Tory MPs blogs.
        You seem to share the same tunnel vision as SAGE, Boris, Hancock and the rest of the spineless brainless buffoons who are supposed to be running the country, god help us.

  4. Mick
    January 25, 2021

    Surly if the top 4 groups of vulnerable people have been vaccinated by the middle of February then that should be it or whatā€™s the point of being vaccinated or the restrictions weā€™ve had to endure the past year, I myself being retired have no hardship about being stuck in doors but the young under 50s need freedom like most of my generation grew up with

    1. Andy
      January 25, 2021

      The problem is that thousands of those of under 50s will die. As I have said all along the strategy of vaccinating the elderly first is wrong headed. Many elderly people do not leave their house much – particularity in winter. Vaccinate younger people first to get the economy moving.

      1. Chi Zilla
        January 26, 2021

        Those under 50 have had a whole year in which to die – and they haven’t! The average age of cv19 fatality is 82.

    2. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      Only one dose Mick – evidently does not confer any immunity for illness or symptoms so they are pursuing the incorrect course of action but it makes good soundbites.

    3. JoolsB
      January 25, 2021

      Agree except theyā€™ll only have had their first dose by then despite senior doctors calling for the 12 week gap between vaccines to be halved. The politicians know better of course and so have a perfect excuse not to free us until the second doses are administered which wonā€™t be for months yet.

    4. IanT
      January 25, 2021

      I tend to agree Mick. I have a Shed, so am remaining relatively sane – that won’t help me if my wife goes bonkers though! šŸ™‚

      Once the mortality rate risk is reduced such that they have reached ‘normal’ annual levels and the pressure on hospital beds has decreased then the economy should start to be re-opened. I’m retired but feel for anyone with a small business locked down at this time. We cannot keep this up forever…

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        January 25, 2021

        The pressure on hospital beds is from the under 50s, they don’t die and need to be treated.

    5. TIMH
      January 25, 2021

      +1

  5. Shirley M
    January 25, 2021

    Logic tells me lockdowns cannot be sustained indefinitely, as the country would not have the funds to treat/maintain its citizens. Logic also tells me that if increasing numbers are hospitalised then we will have a situation where some people, whatever their ailment, will not receive treatment. It’s a no-win situation unless vaccinations really do stop people becoming ill from the virus. We have to hope the vaccinations are plentiful, and successful.

    1. J Bush
      January 25, 2021

      I wonder how many people with cancer, heart and various other conditions are now being rushed into hospital as a direct result of their treatments being stopped last year?

      Once in hospital they are automatically tested and if positive (which they invariably are due to the ridiculous way the PCR results are achieved), how many of these poor people have died and their deaths are added to the ‘covid’ deaths? We already know they have included flu, pneumonia and tested positive within 28 days of death in the ‘covid deaths’, so why not these, to justify their ludicrous fear campaign of rising deaths?

      Am I cynical, you bet I am. And furious that politicians are still listening to these purported ‘scientists’ who collectively, have killed so many people through denying not only lack of medical support, but also those who have taken their own lives as a direct result of their draconian rules. I blame every single of them for these deaths and sincerely hope there will a full public enquiry on this and also the destruction of our economy.

    2. bigneil(newercomp)
      January 25, 2021

      Its citizens are NOT being treated. Reports of people going blind due to eye treatment being stopped. Cancer treatment stopped – and the patient now told “There is nothing we can do ” – polite for – You’re going to die. – -All while foreigners are brought ashore – to be met with NHS ambulances and crews ( paid from our taxes ) go into hotels.

    3. zorro
      January 25, 2021

      They can if you want to bankrupt/destroy the economy…..

      zorro

  6. Lifelogic
    January 25, 2021

    Indeed. Surely it is very clear that lockdown is now doing far more net harm than good?

    Hard to take the government experts remotely seriously when their vaccine priority does not even adjust for the far higher risks to men from this vaccine. This will cost hundreds of lives and thousands of extra hospitalisation for a given number of vaccine shots (assuming the vaccine is safe and effective). They have been told but the experts and Gov. just stay silent and do nothing. These extra deaths/hospitalisations, it seems, do not matter to them.

    NICE seem to work of circa Ā£25K being justified per QALY (quality year of life saved). With Covid however we seem to be spending more like 100 times this sum. So what is the justification for this huge difference?

    1. Nig l
      January 25, 2021

      The usual opinionated first line for which you provide zero evidence.

    2. zorro
      January 25, 2021

      To bankrupt the economy and usher in a Great Reset with the support of WEF/IMF?…. Perhaps?

      zorro

      1. Paul Cuthbertson
        January 26, 2021

        Zorro, you appear to be the only one with foresight. This was the plan from the start.
        I cannot say too much here though……

  7. Iain gill
    January 25, 2021

    Yea but Boris wants to build back better a new green future. Little disguised Stalinist code words. Going to ban gas heating, and has no concept of how our electricity is really generated. Davos is still on this year despite everything else being cancelled, and no doubt our government will be there, which says it all.

    1. turboterrier
      January 25, 2021

      +1

    2. Lifelogic
      January 25, 2021

      Indeed total scientific insanity on ā€œrenewablesā€, climate and net zero carbon from this government and nearly all MPs. Always amusing to listen to government ministers talking on these topics and displaying their amazing ignorance of these issues for all to see.

      Listen, for example, to Kwasi Kwateng on the recent Spectator podcast- The Saudi Arabia of Wind for example.

      And Kwasi is one of the brighter more solid MPs – though amazingly ignorant on this topic, he should at leasy mug up and talk to Matt Ridley, Peter Lilley types.

      1. Lifelogic
        January 25, 2021

        total unscientific insanity rather!

    3. Everhopeful
      January 25, 2021

      +1

    4. Mactheknife
      January 25, 2021

      The ‘Great Reset’ is afoot. Boris has bought into the WEF plan hook line and sinker.

      1. Paul Cuthbertson
        January 26, 2021

        Macthe knife – Boris and MANY others. Check out who attends the WEF. Blair and Cameron to name but 2 of the 2,784 attendees in 2020. Many in UK have not a clue as to what the WEF is all about.

    5. Christine
      January 25, 2021

      Well said. Boris and Hancock need to go and go quickly. We need a real Conservative government in place that will have a plan to get this country out of the mess it’s got itself into. Surely Sir John can see the strength of feeling from the majority of people who comment on here. It doesn’t bode well for the future of his party.

    6. DavidJ
      January 25, 2021

      Indeed Iain. Seems that Boris is just a useful puppet. People need to open their eyes to the plans of the Davos lot.

    7. forthurst
      January 25, 2021

      Joe Biden and Boris Johnson, one in his second childhood and the other who hasn’t left his first, spoke on the phone and bonded over their joint love of puffer trains: Joe likes very long, very slow trains that transport goods from coast to coast; Boris likes passenger trains that carry passengers for short distances at high speed because being simple, he believes that forcing people to give up their cars and forcing them onto puffer trains will save the planet.

      1. forthurst
        January 25, 2021

        Apparently, those charged with making huge profits out of constructing the entirely pointless HS2 will be forced to use ‘green’ diesel otherwise the planet could be destroyed before it’s been saved in the first place according to Tory MPs; it’s lucky the Tory party has so many eco loons still at large who have not yet been sectioned as normally happens to people whose weird beliefs indicate they are insane.

      2. Lifelogic
        January 25, 2021

        +1

    8. Timaction
      January 25, 2021

      Indeed. It’s reported in Guido today that zero carbon will cost in excess of a TRILLION pounds and bankrupt some industries. Who could have thought it, based on unproven science. Apparently this policy was decided on the back of a fag packet by former Chancellor Mr Hammond and agreed by the great intellectual Theresa May. Of course fully endorsed by Nut Nut Boris. They wanted to hide this from the public, of course they did, but the Information Commissioner won’t let them! I’m afraid not many people going to vote for the former conservative, now Green/Yellow party. Vote for the Tory’s who will bankrupt the Country, take away our cars and boilers, tax us to the hilt and have power cuts when the wind doesn’t blow.

      1. Hope
        January 25, 2021

        +100

      2. alan jutson
        January 26, 2021

        Timeaction

        Agreed, I do wonder how many MP’s have really thought this through, estimated cost Ā£1,000,000,000,000

        and little or no debate ?

        Any comment JR.

  8. Leslie Singleton
    January 25, 2021

    It would of course be better if we knew more but unfortuntely we do not, and I think pretending we do and inventing a nice timed exit plan based on this pretence would be so much make-believe. I continue of opinion that without lockdown the virus could go right out of control with numbers orders of magnitude larger than those we have seen so far and that what the Government is doing, although by no means certainly the best way to fight the virus, which is unknown at present, is steady as she goes till we know better. I unequivocally support the Government on this. Not so long ago the optimists were saying there would be no second wave and we should calmly ride out the ripple. That was baloney but we don’t seem to hear much contrition on that. Let’s hear it for the prudent approach–Yes till many more have been vaccinated.

    1. Nig l
      January 25, 2021

      +1

    2. DaveM
      January 25, 2021

      I tend to agree with you, as much as I despise the lockdown. Would you agree though that itā€™s crucial to keep pressure on the government? I canā€™t help feeling that, a combination of Hancockā€™s love of the limelight and Johnsonā€™s inherent laziness add up to a massive temptation on their part to keep the country locked down as long as possible. Not to mention Johnsonā€™s desperate need to please the opposition and the press, who seem to love having people locked down while the economy tanks.

      1. Leslie Singleton
        January 25, 2021

        Dear Dave–Way I see it there is plenty of pressure on Boris as it is and I must say that I believe he would like to remove the lockdown if he could but sees it as impossible at present. He can only do what he can do.

      2. Lynn
        January 25, 2021

        Johnson just wants to go with the flow. He is not getting any feedback from Parliament (like sharp intakes of breath at each idiot announcement), he is being applauded by anti-Tories. Boris just wants the applause.

        1. Leslie Singleton
          January 26, 2021

          Dear Lynn–Amazing that you should see Boris as just going with the flow, not that that would be exactly criminal–Would have thought (vide lockdown) in many ways he is doing close to the opposite. And do you think it is easy winning applause in the current environment? Hardly–He has played a blinder starting with a very difficult hand indeed, perhaps a Yarborough.

    3. Mike Wilson
      January 25, 2021

      How are you affected financially by this? I am of the firm opinion that those most keen on lockdown are those least affected by it. Let me guess – you are retired from the public sector with the state pension and a public sector pension? Am I right?

      1. Leslie Singleton
        January 25, 2021

        Partly right in that retired. Of course I very fully understand the ghastly financial pressures many people are going through but the need for lockdown comes first. If the Government can help those in need more financially I would support that.

    4. Lynn
      January 25, 2021

      Leslie if you want to remain locked down, do. If you are frightened of meeting another soul, avoid them. Iā€™m not demanding that you are forced from your home, maskless, to live a normal life.
      But demanding that because you are frightened I must remain incarcerated, go bankrupt, see all the families who depend on me destitute, depressed, suicidal, see little children deprived of education and brought up to be terrified of others instead of normal, happy socialising is plain spiteful, totally self-serving, heartless, vicious and fundamentally outrageously unacceptable. NO!
      If Parliament refuses to represent us, if it continues to claim that ā€˜itā€™s nuffin to do wiv meā€™ having replaced the EU excuse with the Covid emergency legislation excuse, they must go. They are on unlawful strike.
      Brown says ā€˜Britain is becoming a failed stateā€™. Gee I wonder why? He think the ā€˜regionsā€™ are not in harmony with ā€˜Westminsterā€™. Apart from the sanctimonious state workers on full pay with increases, vicious people like Leslie Singleton (well named) I know not a soul who is ā€˜in harmonyā€™ with this eccentric Ruling Cabal.
      They have violated all my rights as a free man. They have joined with Communists and waged a psychological war against their own people, broken many, destroyed the fabric of our society.
      And John Redwood is ā€˜giving the Government the benefit of the doubtā€™ repeatedly.

      1. Hope
        January 25, 2021

        Lynne, Excellent blog. I am afraid JR has not fooled me either. All he has done is abstain! We need a date for Johnson’s departure as well as ending lockdown. This spineless jelly fish is no use to the country. Worse public health failing in history, worse self inflicted economic failing in history, highest taxation before Chinese virus, highest historic immigration records in all forms. He is mirroring his chaotic dysfunctional misfit private life to his public role.

        Con woman has consistently highlighted the vile acts of this govt. to our way of life, health and wealth. How many have died at home- five year average above each month since lockdown, waiting lists, no education or development of children, worse child abuse 20% up!

        1. Lynn
          January 25, 2021

          Boris is the creature of the Remain May Parliamentary Party. He is their ā€˜revengeā€™. We were compelled to vote for him because the other 2 options would have reversed Brexit.
          MPs wanted him because they thought he could win the election. They need to be in no doubt that he will NEVER win another. Critical that we all vote against the Tory in the local elections, for whosoever will beat them. But mainly we need Johnson to get less than 9% of the vote.
          If they donā€™t ditch him the Tories must know that we, their supporters, will defeat them.
          This lockdown must end NOW!
          I know more people who have committed suicide than have had Covid. And a Teacher (on CW) responded to me saying that in the last 6 weeks 5 teenagers on her school had committed suicide.
          Is this a price worth paying for Leslie to sit snug sipping gin and saying ā€˜steady as she goesā€™?
          The ship has founded, we are going down and there are NO lifeboats!

      2. Leslie Singleton
        January 25, 2021

        Your post is badly grounded because I am not the least bit frightened but maybe I should be. It is you who are trying to frighten people with your tales of woe. As I say above the Government has somehow to find more ways to help. I am or was back in the day a creature of Oxford Science if that helps you understand “where my head is at” and they say Lockdown. It is the various opinions that make a horse race.

      3. Chi Zilla
        January 26, 2021

        +1,000,000 !

    5. Chris Dark
      January 25, 2021

      The “vaccines” are unknown in terms of their effectiveness and safety. They are apparently not guaranteed to protect the person who receives them; the person still has to isolate, wear a mask and stay at home because they “might” still catch the virus. Please…can no-one see the stupidity in this? I advocate for getting on with the business of re-opening life as per the Great Barrington Declaration. People are sick to death of existing in a never-ending vacuum and “staying safe” while the country crashes around their ears. There will be nothing left to live for, otherwise.

      1. Peter Parsons
        January 25, 2021

        Your comment suggests you have no clue how vaccines actually work.

        Firstly, vaccination is not an instantaneous process, it takes time for immunity to build up after receiving a jab.

        Secondly, it is not known as yet as to whether the Covid vaccines produce sterilising immunity (i.e. they actually prevent infection) or they simply stop you getting symptomatic disease. Until that is known, it is sensible advice to continue to take measures to avoid infection, especially during the time period when immunity will still be building up.

    6. Denis Cooper
      January 25, 2021

      Here is the link for the official estimated R numbers and rates of growth of the infection since last May:

      https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#history

      If you scan down the rates of growth you can see that the fastest was the range +5% to +9% a day that was reported on October 2. There was a succession of high growth rates around that time; none were completely reliable, they were for the UK as a whole with variations across the country, and anyway:

      “These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms, and needing healthcare.”

      but for illustration taking the central value of that highest ever reported range it would be 7% a day.

      On a basic, admittedly over-simplified, compound growth calculation at that 7% daily growth rate the level of infection would be 1.6 times higher after a week – 1.07 raised to the power of 7 – then 2.6 times higher after a fortnight, 6.6 times higher after a month, 44 times higher after two months, and 47o times higher after three months which would have been the end of the year.

      Starting from the 0.2% level of infection in England reported on October 2:

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland2october2020#main-points

      on that basic compound growth model we would have gone into 2021 with 470 times 0.2% = 94% of the population of England having been infected.

      Which would have been a small problem if this was almost always a mild disease which placed very little extra strain on the NHS, then we could all have caught it and shrugged it off and got on with our lives, but clearly this particular virus is not only highly infectious but also fairly virulent.

      The NHS is close to breaking point with the severe cases being produced with a 2% level of infection, and if it had just been left to spread unhindered from early October then it would probably have overwhelmed the NHS some time in November.

    7. Mactheknife
      January 25, 2021

      This virus will be with us forever in some form, just like Influenza. So by your logic we have to lock down forever.
      There are many renowned scientists from the best universities and scientific organisations in the world who fundamentally disagree with the SAGE approach but they are silenced by the media and big tech.

      1. Leslie Singleton
        January 25, 2021

        Dear Mac–Our scientists are plain and simply the best and I could not have disagreed more with what the BMA Chairman had to say about our need (best I understood) to fall in to line with what International/ Global scientists are saying. I had thought that the B in BMA stood for British and I for one don’t care to worry too much about what foreign scientists do or don’t think.

        1. Lynn
          January 25, 2021

          Yes our scientists are the best in the world just as our NHS and track and trace are the best in the world.
          The 3rd world can see that British scientists, bought and paid for by the Grant system, the NHS and the ā€˜track and traceā€™ (which could have been coded better by Paddington Bear) are a laughing stock.
          If you donā€™t know that you are insular and if you reject their verdict you are delusional.

          1. Leslie Singleton
            January 26, 2021

            Dear Lynn–I did not refer to the NHS or Track and Trace–You did but not me. I know I am insular and very very proud of it. Go read Shakespeare on the subject

        2. Mactheknife
          January 26, 2021

          One of the BRITISH scientists who has been silenced is Dr Carl Heneghan -BM, BCH, MA, MRCGP, DPhil Professor of Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford with over 400 peer reviewed papers. His video discussing recent evidence on the effectiveness of face masks in 3 recent studies has been removed from Youtube as it was classified as spreading disinformation. If someone with his background and experience cannot discuss scientific papers openly, we are in a police state. It seems every media organisation has bought into the “dream”.

  9. Lifelogic
    January 25, 2021

    Matt Hancock ā€œUK lockdown lifting a long, long, long way offā€ Hardly encouraging or specific, it is clearly doing more harm than good. Can we have someone who considers the interests of the whole country as a whole and not just ā€œOur NHS? As they like to call it (rather like ā€œour BBCā€). They seem only concerned about the NHS and the State Sector – rather than those of the circa 80% who are not.

    1. Ian Wragg
      January 25, 2021

      Yesterday I was reading PHE guidelines on reporting deaths. Recently they have increased the time to being positive within 60 days.
      As the numbers were dropping before Christmas they moved the goalposts to increase the number of alleged Covid deaths. No doubt when the numbers drop again, anyone testing positive no matter how long ago will be classed as a Covid death.
      PUBLIC HEALTH MATTERS by PHE, it’s all there.

    2. Hope
      January 25, 2021

      NHSCEO Stevens failed to plan for the pandemic, he failed to plan for this winter! Deaths at home soaring above five year average, how many people now denied treatment for non Covid but terminal illnesses!

      The Blaire man Stevens should have been shown the door at the outset for failing to plan, prepare and operationally test his plans for a pandemic.

      The plans should have been in place and tested after SARS and MERs 16 years before, no excuses. Civil Contingency Act 2003 required the NHS and PHE bosses to plan, prepare and test their plans for the emergency. Bird flu, Swine Flu and CSG all precursors to plan.

      It was known 16 years before that a pandemic could happen. Why has South Korea and other neighboring countries been able to take proper action to safeguard their nations and Steven failed the U.K. along with PHE and a line of Health Secretaries? Handcock should have gone after his speech to parliament on 23/01/2020. If he had any integrity he would resign after so m any deaths because of his failure to plan, prepare and test plans. He told us in January U.K. NHS fully prepared! No plans, no PPE no test and trace, no contingency plans for access capacity in hospitals etc etc. he is a total unmitigated disaster.

      1. Lifelogic
        January 25, 2021

        NHS CEO Simon Stevens seems dreadful to me yet another lefty PPE Oxon dope. But who would want to be CEO of the state monopoly NHS – it is not a very nice job for anyone sensible to do balancing unions, endless political interference and countless appalling scandals and endless gross negligence.

    3. meltemian
      January 25, 2021

      …..and those 80% are the ones footing the bill for it all!

    4. Your comment is awaiting moderation
      January 25, 2021

      So Boris has decided that non payment of the TV Licence will remain a criminal offence.

      1. Everhopeful
        January 25, 2021

        I did not post that today!
        Itā€™s from ages ago.

    5. zorro
      January 25, 2021

      To be honest, he should be gone for even saying that. In what parallel universe, could a Minister think that this was a sensible phrase to use at this time?

      zorro

  10. Andy
    January 25, 2021

    This week – probably on Tuesday or Wednesday – the number confirmed to have died with Covid in the UK as will pass 100,000. And many thousands more deaths are baked into the system.

    When done properly – and in conjunction with other measures – lockdowns work. We can see this from New Zealand, Australia, China, the Far East where they have worked.

    The problem here is that – because our first lockdown came far, far too late – it needed to be a long and deep lockdown. And Tory MPs – and pretty much only Tory MPs – would not allow this. They kept demanding restrictions be lifted too soon. Allowing the virus to thrive, pushing us back to square one.

    The opposition parties are not clamouring for lockdowns to end. Nor is the public. The unrest is entirely among the same small group of Tories who brought you Brexit. The ones whose lifelong project means you canā€™t export cheese or take a sandwich on holiday. Perhaps we should not listen to them?

    1. Nig l
      January 25, 2021

      You were doing quite well until your sore loser obsession with Brexit got the better of you. Upset that you canā€™t take a sandwich on holiday. Yes of global importance, if only I had known, I would have voted to remain!

      Seriously, as ever two sides to this, agree re lockdowns and my sense is the public, free country ranters excepted, are with you.

      However also with JR we need to push for the end game and for me it is the completion of the vaccine programme with an effective ā€˜boosterā€™ follow up, annually or whatever, cheap quick testing so employers can be assured workplaces are safe, we can travel etc (these are around now but manufacture and roll out need scaling up) and finally the clunky NHS needs to be ready to deal with Covid patients differently.

      It is appalling that they wasted all that money on Nightingale hospitals without people to staff them. We must have a strategy for post lockdown patients that does not gum up the rest of the service.

    2. agricola
      January 25, 2021

      Some in opposition may like lockdowns because they cannot be blamed for them, do not have to pay for them, or see them as an ultimate way to dislodge a governmentl they have an inbuilt dislike for, irrespective of electoral choice.

      You overlook those elements in society who despite the evidence of Covid, continued with their political demos, shopping, raves, and in a recent case a mass wedding attended by a reported 400.

      In one respect I agree with you. Our early lockdown was not applied early enough or strictly enough. Arrivals by air and sea should have ceased. Checking Flight Radar 24 proved that nothing was done. There was no testing on entry and there still wasn’t when I returned on the 10th January this year. Hindsight is a wonderful weapon, unless you made your views crystal clear at the outset of Covid.

      While Australia and New Zealand may have got it right, don’t be so naive as to trust anything coming out of China or much of the Far East.

      1. agricola
        January 25, 2021

        PS
        We in the UK never did export cheese other than the ubiquitous Cheddar. No Waterloo or Sharpham in Carrefour in my thirty years of looking. Wait until arrival in Benidorm for your chip butty.

    3. Roy Grainger
      January 25, 2021

      So every single other EU country locked down too late too and that’s because they are run by Tory Brexit supporters ? Spain, Italy, Belgium, Poland …. and look at Germany’s second wave. Who knew that Brexit was so popular !

    4. SM
      January 25, 2021

      Presumably it is the same small group of Tories who are organising the occasionally violent current protests against lockdown in France and Holland?

      From what I read on political websites and the BBC news website, many people are clamouring for lockdowns to end in the UK – whether they are right to do so is something that can only be judged a very long way down the line from here.

      And by the way, we had a pretty fast and very severe lockdown here in S Africa last year, including the banning of the sale of alcohol, cigarettes and open-toed sandals (go figure!), international travel and inter-Provincial travel. It hasn’t stopped the increase in cases or the development of variants, nor has the advent of summer. It has however contributed fully to the increasing wreckage of an already badly-damaged economy.

    5. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      Wuhan was locked down for just a month Andy old chap.

      It’s the borders stupid.

    6. Richard1
      January 25, 2021

      In fact of course itā€™s far more nuanced than that. There is no comparison between Australia and NZ and the U.K. given where they are and the level of international connectedness etc. There are plants of examples in the other direction. Japan has had very little lockdown but also done well. Peru has had the hardest lockdown in the world but suffered terribly. There is no correlation in the US between results in lockdown states like NY and CA and lighter lockdown states. The reality is there are all sorts of other factors at play – pre-existing immunity, preparation due to the SARS experience, and I strongly suspect levels of obesity.

      In other words itā€™s another one of those issues where there are complex arguments on both sides, and calm and rational debate based on evidence is needed to find the best policy.

      1. Richard1
        January 25, 2021

        Plenty of examples

    7. Frances Truscott
      January 25, 2021

      We were still in the Eu and could not shut our borders. Our first cases included Chinese but also people coming back from the eu

      1. Peter Parsons
        January 25, 2021

        Yes we could. That was always permissible as an EU member under circumstances, of which a pandemic is one. Plenty of other EU member states did just that. The EU was not responsible for decisions not taken in Westminster and Downing Street.

        1. Peter Parsons
          January 25, 2021

          *under certain defined circumstances

    8. Mike Wilson
      January 25, 2021

      5th March – fist death from virus
      23rd March – lockdown

      You describe this as ā€˜far, far too lateā€™. I would describe your comment(s) as palpable nonsense.

      1. Mike Wilson
        January 25, 2021

        Further – New Zealand locked down 2 days AFTER the UK.

        Of course what they did do was close their borders. Which as an island a thousand miles from anywhere else that does not have thousands of lorries going through its ports every day and thousands of planes carrying cargo landing at one of the worldā€™s busiest airports, it could both do and afford to do.

        We, on the other hand, are a similar size island 20 miles from a continental land mass with 500 million people that, during 2020, we had free movement of people between us. We have a population of 70 million (still increasing by hundreds of thousands a year encouraged by you) whereas New Zealand is less than 5 million. We are dependent on trade, particularly for food imports, whereas New Zealand ( with such a tiny population) is not. Maybe there are too many people on this densely populated island? Not as far as you are concerned. I am yet to tease out of you what you think the population of this crowded island should be. Will you say ā€˜enoughā€™ when we get to 100 million? At a million more every 3 years, youā€™ll see it in your lifetime.

      2. Sea_Warrior
        January 26, 2021

        I’m not comfortable with your choosing that 5 March death as justification for an assertion that a 23 March lockdown was timely, if that’s what you’re doing. I would have expected the government to have made quarantine and lockdown decisions on what was obviously happening in China and Italy. It really appears that our ‘world-class’ intelligence services were asleep at the wheel.

    9. No Longer Anonymous
      January 25, 2021

      I agree totally. The previous Remainer Prime Ministers left our NHS and civil contingencies woefully unprepared for Leaver Boris’s first few weeks in office. None of them (at least 6 Remainer PMs to get back as far as Mrs Thatcher) had bothered to ensure a stockpile of PPE or a contingency plan for him to refer to despite the SARS crisis at the beginning of the century. But a good recovery despite all the initial mistakes – mainly because of an ingrained Remainer policy of not closing our border. We are leaving the EU trailing for dust when it comes to vaccination and the final death tally for all nations is yet to come in – and those deaths should be juxtaposed with death-by-lockdown – I wonder if New Zealand is counting.

      1. No Longer Anonymous
        January 25, 2021

        It is also true that our country has been one of the best at keeping frail people alive into old age and one of the best at providing a surfeit of calories for people in all levels of our society. Sadly this has made us vulnerable to CV-19 and probably explains why poor countries have such a low CV-19 mortality rate and that’s because so few people live to be old enough or obese enough to die from it.

    10. Hope
      January 25, 2021

      No not even “with” Covid but tested positive within 28 days of death. It could be a false positive run over by a bus and still counts as Chinese virus death! What an appalling indictment on the govt. it cannot even count deaths properly after all this time.

    11. Cynic
      January 25, 2021

      Andy, lockdowns haven’t worked yet. So when will they work? This year next year some time never?

    12. Mike Durrans
      January 25, 2021

      This guy Andy is living a Stalinist la la land. He forgets the massive vote against his leaders theory, hiding behind the constant drip of LIES of the far left. I bet he totally believes in diversity as ā€œThe Solutionā€.
      The lefties are not clamouring for an end to lock down as it would ease control that they love!

      Sir John, Iā€™m glad to read your thoughts this morning as they confirm my feelings against the general direction we are being driven. However I will not be participating in the vaccine programme as the manufacturer would not accept liability for HIS product, sounds fishy to me!

    13. Mactheknife
      January 25, 2021

      I’m afraid Andy you need to do more research on how we classify deaths (as John alluded to). Just check out the advice from the BMA who have instructed Doctors to put Covid on the death certificate even if there is NO positive test ! Its published on line – just do a quick search.

    14. beresford
      January 25, 2021

      So what is your strategy, Andy, bearing in mind that it is not possible for the economy to survive indefinite lockdown and it is not possible to eradicate the virus? You cannot achieve 100% vaccination because of those who are exempt (women of child-bearing age, minors) and vaccination does not prevent transmission or confer 100% immunity.

  11. Sea_Warrior
    January 25, 2021

    The immediate need, for this week, is that the government publishes the values for those key metrics that will drive decisions to move areas down the tier ladder. This week, Sir John! Now please create some trouble for the government in the Commons.
    P.S. And if I’m sounding a tad agitated it’s because I’ve just had to endure a clip of Hancock in full waffling-mode.

  12. agricola
    January 25, 2021

    For as long as we were in the EU government took instruction. It is now in the DNA of our politicians and civil servants. Very few are immune and prefer taking advice to making decisions from which the media are all too eager to lay blame. We are in need of factual knowledge.
    What level of immunity does the first jab of the two vaccines ( Pfizer and Astra Zeneca) give and for how long and at what period after the jab is administered. By now we should have an emerging or clear picture from evidence. Society in the UK is sufficiently mature to take on board evidence and accept advice based on it. So I would say to government, stop all the mixed messages, within which all those in opposition to anything thrive, and give us the facts as known. We might then be mostly on side. At present it is as difficult as, do you believe in UFOs.

  13. matthu
    January 25, 2021

    The government needs to justify why they are still relying on the PCR test when this is
    Producing so many false positives, and what the cost to the country is of having so many people under lockdown when they are asymptomatic and the test is so unreliable.

    The government need to justify why they are justifying so many extreme actions on ā€œcouldā€ and ā€œmayā€ while suppressing all dissenting viewpoints.

    The government is showing a total disregard for our freedoms in this country and do not deserve our vote.

    1. Peter Parsons
      January 25, 2021

      What evidence do you have to claim there are false positives and at what level?

  14. oldtimer
    January 25, 2021

    It appears that the advisors are pursuing a self serving numbers game. They sought to justify the decision (unsupported by any actual evidence and contrary the the approval conditions requiring a second jab after 20 days) on the basis they could jab more people more quickly. At least this arithmetic is correct. Despite the breath taking arrogance of casting aside the advice of the vaccine manufacturers and the regulator over the time gap between the first and second jabs, we are advised we still cannot be given the date when the lockdown will end. It is obvious they are making it up as they go along. They are turning the vaccination programme into a con. We are all being taken for fools.

  15. Narrow Shoulders
    January 25, 2021

    More to the point What is lockdown for? Our own protection or the state’s.

    If the vaccine reduces symptoms and the people who are more likely to need intensive unit care have been vaccinated then we can open up however many cases there are in the community.

    Mutation? We should be encouraging mutation as the virus will evolve into an unpleasant but benign illness as flu and the common cold has. The common cold transmits much more virulently than Sars Cov-2

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      Or does the government and Sage not believe that one dose confers immunity? In which case go back to the original plan and vaccinate front line staff first, then the aged and vulnerable, then the less aged and give them both doses in a timely fashion.

      We were told the vaccine was the magic bullet, if its not then Sage had better explore treatment and shut the borders with self paid quarantine for 10 days in hotels. Dinghy people can either be turned round or put to work to pay for their accommodation (we need more doctors after all).

  16. Lifelogic
    January 25, 2021

    Yes these people were right on Brexit, right that lockdown do far more harm than good, right on the misguided climate alarmist lunacy religion too. In one word they are ā€œRationalā€.

    No lockdown in Sweden where deaths 2017+18 almost exactly the same as 2019+2020. Deaths 2021 likely to be fairly low due the the high 2020 figure as people only die once.

    1. Andy
      January 25, 2021

      Sweden has about twice the population as neighbouring Norway, Finland and Denmark.

      Just over 10m Swedes. Just over 5m Finns, Danes and Norwegians.

      Sweden has 20 times as many Covid deaths as Norway and Finland. It has 6 times as many deaths as Denmark.

      Sweden is not the COVID example you want.

      1. John
        January 26, 2021

        Sweden has no excess deaths, 2020 and 2019 vs 2018 and 2017 combined. Most countries are using PCR with 35-40 cycles = inaccurate, false positives.

        This entire debate and disaster should have been avoided by getting a 2nd opinion in reponse to Ferguson (he of the fake figures.) Why is a man hired who got three previous predictions wrong?

    2. Peter Parsons
      January 26, 2021

      2018 was the year with the highest number of deaths in Sweden over the decade preceding 2020.

      In 2020, the number of deaths was over 6% higher than that previous high and over 8% higher than the average number of deaths per year over that decade.

  17. Iain Gill
    January 25, 2021

    Of course a big thing they wont mention is that if lockdown is so good at preventing deaths then a noticeable blip upwards in deaths should be happening after the Christmas relaxation of the rules just about now. Just about now that Christmas relaxation should have worked its way through extra people catching the virus, extra people being in intensive care, and extra people dying. I am prepared to bet there is no such blip. The Christmas relaxation resulted in no extra deaths.

    1. DaveK
      January 26, 2021

      There is no need to guess, just go on the worldometers site and look at the UK graphs. From a laymans viewpoint, it looks like the cases peak was on 9th Jan, therefore within the next week or so, the death rate should start to fall. If it follows the previous epidemic curves it should fall sharply and within a couple of months be subject to seasonality. That would give opportunity for a relaxation and some respite for the NHS and allow vaccinations for the lower categories to continue using more widespread locations such as pharmacies etc. I do wonder how much of the so called second wave was due to the hiding of those susceptible during first lockdown and how many cases were due to the mutated strain.

  18. alan jutson
    January 25, 2021

    Good grief Andy I was agreeing with you, right up until the last two sentence’s.

    It used to be just the elderly and infirm who were dying, now it is also a number of younger victims who are suffering the same fate (although in lower numbers, at the moment).

    Thus when the so called lockdown is released, it should be a slow and gradual release, which is well thought out monitored and planned, we will still need to screen/isolate all incoming people for very many months yet .

    I would suggest that not until half of the adult population has been vaccinated would the lockdown be properly released.

  19. Frances Truscott
    January 25, 2021

    There are now a few cases of two new and more deadly strains that kill younger people and spread like wildfire. They need to close our borders and put people in hotels to quarantine.
    One of the ways out will be vaccines. Another is a virus blocking nose spray which can last for several days . There are also promising medications that may be used in the community. Yesterday colchicine was mentioned.
    Many are frustrated but there are too many unknowns. At least we are not obliged to have open borders at this point. Papers are not reporting it much but even the Dutch are having a bad time and also rioting in the streets.

    1. MiC
      January 27, 2021

      The UK has never been obliged to have open borders.

  20. Denis Cooper
    January 25, 2021

    Here are some preliminary projections that I worked up yesterday.

    To get the number of days for the infection to decline by 90% from its initial level, n, when f is the daily rate of reduction:

    (1 ā€“f) to the power of n = 0.1

    Taking logs to the base of 10:

    n x log(1-f) = log 0.1 = ā€“1

    n = ā€“1 / log(1 ā€“f)

    Given that the infection level across England now is about 2% that would take us back to where we were last September, with about 0.2% of the population being infected.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland25september2020#main-points

    According to the latest information:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#history

    the level of infection across the UK is declining at a relative rate between ā€“4% to ā€“1% a day.

    To take into account the vaccination programme: in the worst case that it only reduced the severity of the symptoms and did not affect transmission of the virus, the bottom end of the range for the rate of decline should stay at 1% a day, while in the optimistic case that it also reduced transmission then the upper end of the range could be raised to 5% a day.

    For the best case n = ā€“1/log 0.95 = 45 days, which would take us from today to March 10; while for the worst case n = ā€“1/log 0.99 = 229 days, taking us to September 10.

    So in the worst case it could take until September to get us back to where we were last September.

    To us get back to where we were in early July, with the lowest incidence of infection at about 0.26%, a similar period of time would have to elapse.

    On the best scenario that would take us to April 24 2021, while for the worst case it would take us to April 27 2022.

    Taking the most likely, central, case with the rate of decline of the infection being 3% a day:

    To get us back to where we were in September would take 76 days, taking us to April 8, and to get us back to where we were last summer would take us to June 23.

    1. Sea_Warrior
      January 26, 2021

      Could you turn your excellent post into a five-word slogan – so a minister might understand it?

      1. Denis Cooper
        January 26, 2021

        Well, “more haste less speed” is only four words but it describes what they did last summer.

  21. Javelin
    January 25, 2021

    The Israeli vaccination results show covid is dropping very fast. Find scientists who want to look at all the facts.

  22. Bryan Harris
    January 25, 2021

    Excellent pieceI hope the media pick this up.

    It is not more guidance we need from government – They need to wake up to the permanent damage they are doing to our country.
    If they refuse to change course, then we know for sure what their intention is. They need to know that we are judging them, and finding them wanting.

    The only response I will accept is a whole bunch of isolation hospitals opened up, as well as every part of our society working again, to bring us back to the old normal as soon as possible.
    They need to tell the truth about the statistics, the failings of the vaccines, that the virus is airborne so masks are a false hope, and how we can “live alongside the virus better” for this is our only option if we want our lives back.

    These very specific comments would I fear have been deleted if I’d posted them here 3 months ago (I did post similar ideas) But it is really good to see them in print – Hope you get the opportunity to give these truths to Parliament.

  23. The PrangWizard of England
    January 25, 2021

    There were pictures on TV this morning of large numbers of people queuing at Heathrow airport having arrived here; they were close together. I don’t know how long they had to wait like this but this is after a government rule that that arrivals had to have had a negative test before boarding a plane. We are told that even after a negative transmission can still take place and which is why there is meant to be a quarantine (probably not enforced), so why is this happening? Why have we not fully closed our borders even after all the obvious dangers of keeping them open and after endless warnings? Whose and what orders are being followed but keeping it secret? Seems clear as always that it is say one thing and do little, except of course encourage the police to threaten people who throw snowballs and go for a walk.

  24. Nick Bowes
    January 25, 2021

    Dear Sir John,
    I exclude yourself and a very few honorable exceptions in your party.

    When the Tories get around to campaigning in any future election (if permitted by the ghastly frog eyed
    communist Whitless and co):
    I suggest this as bullet points on any doorstepping leaflet-
    Vote Tory -to ensure only the salaries of an under performing and often corrupt NHS (the world`s fourth largest employer !)
    Vote Tory – to destroy your freedoms as an Englishman.
    Vote Tory – to destroy your children`s education.
    Vote Tory – to destroy your pub, cafe, restaurant or private enterprise.
    Vote Tory – to ensure unfettered illegal immigration from the EU and inc 4 star hotel rooms for all these people who have limited English language or indeed work skills.
    Vote Tory – to increase your household bills and eradicate your cheap modes of travel/transport.
    Vote Tory – to hand over national powers to unaccounted non-elected billionaires and their shady corrupt global organisations.
    Vote Tory – get Princess Nutty Nuts !
    Anyway, I could go on but you get the drift. Try selling that in a few years !!!

    Thank you, useless spineless corrupt Tory Party – we will in due course be getting a full on marxist state under Starmer thanks to your hapless leadership. Johnson and co have instigated deliberate state vandalism on a historic scale.

    Nick Bowes in the “Red Wall”.

  25. Fedupsoutherner
    January 25, 2021

    I wonder how they are going to carry on vaccinating the whole of the population because in under 12 weeks now the first people to receive the vaccine will need their second dose. That means that those in the over 60’s bracket will have to wait longer unless they bring on more vaccinators. We are alread being told that this week the numbers vaccinated will be lower as supplies are at risk. None of these things are explained which leaves people like me in that age bracket worried.

    As you say John, if vaccination isn’t going to get us up and running as normal then what is the point and will we ever have a normal life again. I may be 64 but I certainly don’t intend to stop living a full life yet.

  26. hefner
    January 25, 2021

    How difficult it must be for Sir John to write something intelligent day after day when the situation because of Covid-19 is essentially static? Creating a bit of fuss here, there and everywhere? Writing some vapid little nothings for his devoted followers?
    Like the lead singer of a group out of inspiration, he goes back to his ā€˜Best ofā€™, only loved by the die-hard of his fan club?

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      There’s a reason why compilation albums sell so well @hef.

      And often there is a remix or new little gem on the disk to tickle the fancy.

  27. Sakara Gold
    January 25, 2021

    Unfortunately, unpleasant though it is, there is no alternative to the Chinese plague virus lockdown strategy – the NHS had a close call last week, with front line doctors being forced to decide who to treat and who to send back into the community to die.

    The recent mutation of the virus into highly transmissible strains is extremely dangerous. Already there are reports from Brazil (specifically Manaus, Amazonas state) that their new strain is infecting a younger cohort with much more serious symptoms, a morbidity rate of 40% (!!) of those infected has been reported in the Brazilian press over the weekend and – in a highly disturbing development – there are reports of front-line medical staff catching the virus for a second time.

    At all costs we must prevent these new strains from becoming established here. At the Friday evening press conference Vallance admitted that the Kent strain appears to be 30-40% more morbid but belived that the vaccines could be “tweaked” to cope with this – he has always been a believer in the “herd immunity” strategy. Unfortunately, if necessary “tweaking” the vaccine will take time.

    On the positive side, it seems that the borders have been closed – last night at 23:00 hrs only 11 flights were in the air over the UK and 9 were cargo overflights. The government appears to be preparing quarantine hotels on the New Zealand model and as far as I can gather the highly concerning Brazilian strain has not become established here. We have vaccinated a lot of people and the figures on the BBC website do show that nationally, the number of new cases is rolling over. This nightmare will eventually end – in the meantime the best advice is to stay at home, keep up to date on events and avoid panic.

  28. No Longer Anonymous
    January 25, 2021

    Credit where it’s due on both the vaccines and the roll out. Astonishing ! I am wishing the Government well on this and will applaud them so long as we don’t throw away the advantage.

  29. None of the Above
    January 25, 2021

    Whilst the questions you pose are legitimate, I believe that this situation is becoming unnecessarily tense. Understandable, perhaps, considering that we all getting a little impatient.
    I am fortunate to have family and close friends who are medical professionals and are happy to talk about vaccines and their effectiveness. No vaccine is 100% effective, this and other vaccines cannot guarantee that you will not contract the disease they were manufactured for. What they will do is reduce the chances of infection but if you are unlucky enough to be infected, you will be much less ill and should recover more quickly.
    I have always believed that in the long term we will need to organise an annual vaccination programme very similar to the one we have for influenza. Nobody panics about influenza, even when the vaccine has to be altered every year to allow for mutations.
    In the meantime, I think that we should all come out of our bunkers once people on the priority list have had their jab and get on with life.

  30. Nig l
    January 25, 2021

    Factual post from Yorkshire. A well researched accurate article about vaccine delays, confirmed by the NHS denied by conservative MPs who, taking a leaf out of Donald Trumps play book undertook a programme of intimidation, fake news etc rather than accepting the truth.

    You truly keep despicable company and confirms that we cannot belief anything that our politicians tell us.

    The Labour shadow foreign Secretary brazenly denied something to Andrew Marr yesterday later shown to be an untruth by a video of her emerging saying the opposite.

  31. William Long
    January 25, 2021

    The only justification for Lockdown is to provide a breather to enable the NHS to get its house in order to deal with the inevitable next wave, but what sign has there ever been that they have taken advantage of this? We badly need a new Health Secretary who understands this and is prepared to get things done.

    1. Denis Cooper
      January 26, 2021

      If you look at my comment here:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/01/25/when-will-we-be-allowed-out-of-lockdown/#comment-1206152

      you will see that at a compound growth rate of 7% a day the level of infection would rise by a factor of 1.6 each week, followed a little later by a similar rise in the demand for hospital beds for Covid patients, and then by a similar rise in the demand for critical care beds. And the same kind of pattern would be repeated again and again, with each week increasing the demands on the NHS exponentially. Even after a massive expansion in initial capacity there is no way that the NHS could keep up with that For example if its capacity had been boosted by 60% – beds, medical staff, ancillary staff, ambulance staff, everything – during the breathing space it would still have been exceeded by demand eventually, just a week later.

  32. majorfrustration
    January 25, 2021

    Save the NHS and kill the economy

  33. Ashes
    January 25, 2021

    Sir John,

    I wonder if you have heard of Green Band / Red Band? It puts forward an intelligent way to at least start getting us out of this endless hell, taking into account the feelings of those who are either clinically vulnerable or terrified, while allowing those of us who are being strangled a little of our freedom back.

  34. ChrisS
    January 25, 2021

    A very positive scientist from Bristol was on the Today programme this morning.
    He said that after a further week, we will start to see some data on the validity of the UK’s 12 week vaccine strategy.

    He said that, by then, we will start to see the effect on hospitalisation of the vaccine among people who have received their first dose. He expected that in the following weeks we would see a significant reduction in cases requiring hospitalisation confirmed, and shortly after, a reduction in deaths. He firmly expected that the strategy will be proved to be correct. Let’s hope that this proves to be another example of the UK’s leading role in medical research.

    The EU might even get around to approving the A-Z vaccine this week, after we have already used it on several miillion people ! If it is proven to be an effective strategy, I wonder how long the 27 will take to move to 12 weeks ? Probably a lot longer than if it had been developed by any country other than the UK !

  35. villaking
    January 25, 2021

    Indeed, Sir John. This I consider to be the most important struggle for liberty in my lifetime. It is appalling that an entire population is subject to a lockdown, a brutal form of repression. It is even more disturbing that no end is in sight and the government offers no hope. There is no proof that lockdowns work, international comparisons suggest otherwise, and the damage is colossal. I urge you and like minded MPs to prioritize this matter and fight for our freedom.

  36. Caterpillar
    January 25, 2021

    I am confident that Sir Johnā€™s comments are well intended, but whilst this Govt and advisers remain then oppression will continue. They are the people who have taken pleasure in imprisoning the population and stripping away human rights. They are not the solution, removing them is.

    The Government is killing more people than it is saving. Just by considering NICEā€™s value of a life year the lower bound for this can be shown. This ignores the ongoing effect of the economic hit on health, and the Governmentā€™s intentional weakening (supported by MPs and the police) of the psychological and physiological well-being of many through last and this year. A Government and MPs of decent people would have looked at how to improve peopleā€™s health and how to prepare care for the seasonal resurgence. This Govt, supported by MPs made individual health worse (expanding the vulnerable) and did not prepare ā€“ it is near impossible to explain this away as incompetence. Of course the majority of the longer term deaths caused by the Govt will fall on the more impoverished. Presumably the Govt and its advisers think it is OK to kill 10 plus proles to save an elite life, but for me targeting deaths on a particular group, however well hidden, has a name. The division of the populace is clear, there are those who talk of quality time spent with the children and those who talk of suicide.

    MPs (and the police) have a choice to bring down the Government and restore the U.K. to a free, democratic and rational country, or to continue to support the tyranny, and hope they are among those who enjoy a privileged place. My wish for the first option is futile, the very clear majority of MPs, and indeed the currently privileged (and propaganda influenced) of society, immorally choose the second, to support the tyranny.

    What this Govt and its advisers have done should never happen again, but MPs refuse to stand up to even stop what is happening now. The time to politely chat about exit strategies passed long ago, it is just pretence. The country is being destroyed, certain groups are being deprived of what it is to be human and those who can most easily act, the majority of MPs, do nothing but cheer from the side lines.

  37. Mactheknife
    January 25, 2021

    John, you have echoed everything I have been saying in correspondence and phone calls with my own MP (Cons). His view is that lock-downs are not sustainable and yet supports the PM when asked to do so for further internment. I have said to him quite openly that I believe the PM to be disingenuous as he says one thing and then when he gets his way, he changes it again e.g. lock down to mid-Feb suddenly becomes lock down to the end of March in the legislation.
    I have asked him why the government is not listening to alternative voices in the scientific world. He assures me the government is, but quite frankly I have got to the point where I don’t believe him anymore. It seems there is a small (or maybe large?) group within SAGE that seemed wedded to the lock-down approach and the PM is hanging on their every word.
    I was further dismayed when newspaper reports over the weekend suggested that the PM would be asking for further lock down measure until June and possibly September.
    As Jefferson said “when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty”. So its over to you MP’s to stop the PM in his tracks from further damaging this country.

    1. Donna
      January 26, 2021

      It is pointless expecting Con MPs to stop the PM in his tracks. They had that chance last autumn when the Coronavirus Act required re-approval. On the basis of a weak not-a-promise from Hancock to be consulted more regularly, they backed down.

      Only a dozen or so have a spine. The rest are lobby-fodder.

  38. BJC
    January 25, 2021

    In other words, no-one has a clue what they’re doing! Dare I suggest that to strengthen Parliament’s position, MPs should now be demanding that the data is refined to make it meaningful and prevent the sleight of hand we witness on a daily basis? i.e. MPs must decide what they need, not accept what they’re given. One area that needs tackling is the ongoing and deliberate deception whereby unrelated facts are provided, but leaves the audience to reach its own conclusions. e.g. Simon Stevens stated that there had been more hospital admissions for the over 55’s (probably true), but the audience was left to conclude that these admissions were due to Covid, when it was just as likely they weren’t. He didn’t lie, of course, but he did place the crumbs very carefully for his audience to follow where he wanted to support his narrative. Very clever, but not the quality of data that enables Government/Parliament to make the right decisions.

  39. Everhopeful
    January 25, 2021

    Canā€™t you see that you are being ā€œhadā€?
    Johnsonā€™s tactics are those used to impose totalitarianism.
    Let go a little…then rein back again. Causes despair and surrender.
    And according to MSM he is also dodging votes again.
    You rein him in!!

  40. Everhopeful
    January 25, 2021

    80% support more lockdowns.
    Now why would that be?
    Because they are getting 80% ( and public sector 100%?) of their salaries.
    With no work!
    Ever read Hansel and Gretel?

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      Who are the parents who left us in the woods?

  41. john biggart
    January 25, 2021

    Why would ‘they’ allow us out of lockdown when the Government’s behavioural scientists’ fear-mongering propaganda have us where they want us – begging for more restrictions.

    I wonder if, one day, the use of these propaganda scientists against the population will be deemed a crime against humanity

  42. Wokinghamite
    January 25, 2021

    Our approach to the virus has to be adapted according to new facts which are being discovered, especially regarding these unpleasant new variants. I expect vaccination will lead in due course to easing restrictions. Meanwhile, saving lives and our health service must come first.

  43. Rachel Chandler
    January 25, 2021

    There is no evidence to suggest coercive lockdowns work, unless perhaps everyone is locked in a separate room for months on end. China is not an example we should follow.
    The disease was circulating here long before anyone realised and is now endemic. We have to live with it, encouraging the public to take sensible precautions and be aware of the stress on the NHS.
    The government is wrong to stoke fear and divide society. The harms from lockdown – from missed diagnoses and treatments, declining mental health, domestic abuse, etc. – are adding to the problems we face for getting back to normal.
    The current winter spikes of Covid 19 are not abnormal for respiratory diseases. Many deaths are being attributed to Covid that would have been registered as other causes in previous years. Some deaths are undoubtedly due to lockdown and our inability to handle infectious diseases in hospitals leading to panic and discrimination against those with other ailments.
    We did have a sensible pandemic plan, based on WHO guidelines, but it was ignored.

  44. zorro
    January 25, 2021

    ‘If a tough lockdown is in place and it does not seem to be working it is the fault of the public, as too many must be breaking the rules.’

    I told you that this is effectively now worse than East Germany…. as per Berthold Brecht

    ā€œSome party hack decreed that the people
    had lost the government’s confidence
    and could only regain it with redoubled effort.
    If that is the case, would it not be simpler,
    If the government simply dissolved the people
    And elected another?

    zorro

  45. London Nick
    January 25, 2021

    A couple of people have posted here saying they support the lockdown because only lockdowns “work”. This is CLAPTRAP.

    By “work” they presumably mean ‘reduce the spread of the infection and death rate’. And yes, if that is your only metric, then obviously they will do that. But the point is that this is NOT the only metric that matters.

    Do lockdowns succeed in maintaining a strong and successful economy? NO – lockdowns FAIL to do this.
    Do lockdowns allow the vast majority of the population, which is healthy, to enjoy their lives, by going out and socialising? NO – lockdowns FAIL to do this.

    Lockdowns only serve the interests of a tiny minority of the population, so those who support lockdowns believe that the tail should wag the dog. Those who support lockdowns seem to believe that any price is worthwhile to save a tiny number of lives, but this has NEVER been true. ALL governments have placed a limit on how much they will spend to save a life. In order to depoliticise this, the decision is made by an independent body: NICE. It uses a calculation based on ‘Quality-Adjusted Life Years’, and places a maximum of Ā£30,000 per QALY.

    The government has never admitted what it is spending per QALY in this pandemic. I suggested to Sir JR that he might want to ask the government for this information, but he does not seem to have done so. The last independent analysis – way back in November last year – placed the cost then at over Ā£1 MILLION, and this latest lockdown will have increased that significantly.

    The average age of those dying of Covid19 is 83, while the average life expectancy is 82. So those who die from Covid19 are due to die at any time anyway, and those who are saved will die very shortly after. Especially since the majority have co-morbidities. The cost of the lockdowns is money “spaffed up the wall”, in the words of the prime minister.

    There is NO LOGICAL justification for the lockdown. Those who suport it have NEVER justified it rationally.

  46. Mike Durrans
    January 25, 2021

    13:15 hrs
    BBC News that Hancock is not to open schools until Easter. This madness must STOP, thousands of children’s lives are being destroyed by no education( they will never recover this time lost).
    We must now ignore the ill and the old , we must now fight for the recovery of our Nation especially the children.
    As a great-grandfather I have had my life, my future must not be allowed to destroy our childrens lives.
    Please fight the morons now governing our country, they have lost the plot

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      Let me counter this with my own experience (admittedly from a relatively comfortable house with a garden).

      My two teenaged daughters have their own rooms, they rarely come out of them and communicate via various text messaging, video on social media platforms with their friends. They exercise when they wish, which is less than I would like. That was pre lockdown.

      My two teenaged daughters have their own rooms, they rarely come out of them and communicate via various text messaging, video on social media platforms with their friends. They exercise when they wish, which is less than I would like. That was post lockdown.

      Neither has a wish to go back into school when they can have video lessons.

      I accept that these are older pupils who do not need to learn through play or the creative curriculum and we are fortunate to be able to have own rooms and equipment (but Universal Credit allows for housing benefit which gives kids their own room after a certain age) so there will be others who are not so happy about the lockdown but your hyperbole above about thousands of lives damaged is overkill. The parents are having a much wore time than the kids.

  47. DavidJ
    January 25, 2021

    If government wanted to destroy peoples’ lives through removing their income then they could not be doing a better job. Add to that the other flawed policies such as the “green” nonsense (already disproved by eminent scientists) and it seems that is their prime objective.

  48. Ignoramus
    January 25, 2021

    The stable door was left open for a long time and it is now too late. Not even the proposal to allow sixteen and seventeen year olds to be recruited as spies, ostensibly against country line gangs but also any authority that wants information, will make any difference. The Home Secretary encourages everyone to report “rule breakers”.

    The Conservative Party needs root and branch reform, starting at the top, or it will never be re-elected. More seriously the country will have had enough long before 2024.

  49. Donna
    January 25, 2021

    We are living under a tyranny of single-issue scientists who appear to have been given the power to run the country the way THEY see fit. And since many of them appear to be extremist left-wingers, it is hardly surprising that they way THEY see fit is to impose Corbyn-style extreme socialism on us.

    The Government we elected has abrogated all responsibility for governing. Perhaps that is so they think they will deflect blame for the ruination of our economy and the wreckage of millions of lives onto the scientists of SAGE when the scale of the destruction becomes clear. If so, they are mistaken. Despite claiming they are “following the science” the fact remains that advisers (including scientific ones) advise but Ministers decide.

    And the Ministers in this Government decided NOT to carry out the most basic functions of government – a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis before imposing lockdowns. Or to consult independent scientists with vastly more relevant experience than the Neil Ferguson, the psychologists and medical “experts” on SAGE. Or to place any value whatsoever on our Civil Liberties and Human Rights.

    They cannot defeat this virus. We have to learn to live with it. Tragically, Boris and his incompetent Cabinet refuse to rein-in the scientists who obviously think they’re Gods.

    1. Mark B
      January 26, 2021

      I can give you a +1. But you deserve much more for staring so well that which I have believed pretty much from the beginning.

      Thank you.

  50. weary eye
    January 25, 2021

    Can you explain to me Sir John why you are still a member and supporter of the Conservative Party as you seem to differ with the Prime Minister on every single issue other than Brexit? Wouldn’t it be better if you threw in your lot with Mr Farage and his Reform Party? Or better still as the government is determined to level up the North by levelling down the South and I’m sure your constituents will not be happy seeing their hard earned money being taxed and shovelled North something akin to the Italian Northern League, called the Southern League, taxes raised in the South, (most of them are) to be spent in the South, when you do I’ll certainly join.

  51. beresford
    January 25, 2021

    There is a story today that it will be necessary to vaccinate everybody’s PETS. They are going to continue this for as long as they are allowed to. It must be made clear to the Government that restrictions must be eased at least to last summer’s levels as soon as the most vulnerable cohorts and the at-risk professions have been vaccinated or Boris will face a concerted leadership challenge.

    1. steve
      January 25, 2021

      beresford

      “or Boris will face a concerted leadership challenge.”

      I doubt it. Besides they probably know they won’t win the next general election whether Boris is PM or not. They know trust is well and truly gone, so they’ll simply enjoy it while it lasts. Mind you it wouldn’t surprise me if they’ve considered banning the next general election.

    2. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      I said at the beginning of all this that the only time there would be true opposition is if we had to start culling pets.

      If we want out of this, that is the rumour to start.

      1. Mark B
        January 26, 2021

        Do you know what mate, I think just might have nailed it šŸ˜‰

  52. agricola
    January 25, 2021

    Why are we discussing Covid, a subject that has been nuanced in just about every direction, when the Covert Human Intelligence Resource bill, CHIR, is proposing enabling in law something straight out of the Hitler Youth Handbook, the recruitment of 16 and 17 year olds to spy on their parents. Hitler started them younger.
    If a youth is aware of a gross act of criminality or terrorism he can walk into any major police station and ask for a CID officer or one from the Special Branch and report it. He does not have to be recruited, a suggestion I find outrageous. What in Gods name is this country descending into to even consider such a piece of legislation.

  53. Jiminyjim
    January 25, 2021

    If the government actually is relying on the polls, they will be badly bitten. There is no scientific data that supports the use of lockdown as a means of reducing deaths. The vaccine manufacturers continue to confirm that there is no promise that their products will stop transmission. If we continue to rely on the mass PCR testing of asymptomatic people, we will be in lockdown for ever. And, most importantly, no-one should be allowed to advise government if they benefit from owning shares in vaccine producers or testing companies. No conflict of interest used to be a rule for government. Why was this abandoned?

  54. David Brown
    January 25, 2021

    Asking for a roadmap or strategy or whatever you want to call it for reducing lockdown is a good move. We can all argue about the past and what-ifs.
    What we need is a clear set of indicators with estimated dates for reducing lockdown based on actual statistics.
    I am also encouraged by press reports of a proposed new model for the UK based on a federal system and move away from a centralised system inc changing the House of Lords. To me, this is the way forward for future governance.
    I highlight this point here because I feel future problems that are as serious as Corona are much better managed under a federal system. Along with relations with the EU inc future closer alliance through the Customs Union model.

  55. Linda Jones
    January 25, 2021

    Well, perhaps all those MPs who voted for these ruinous lockdowns should have asked that question at the very beginning.
    I’m sure we all know who they are.

  56. Denis Cooper
    January 25, 2021

    It has been reported that London police broke up an illegal rave with about 300 people:

    https://news.met.police.uk/news/police-break-up-rave-in-east-london-as-hundreds-defy-covid-regulations-in-packed-railway-arch-419540

    As the infection rate in London is still almost 3%:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#regional-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

    perhaps 9 of that 300 were infected, and they had had ample opportunity to infect many others in the crowd before the police arrived and dispersed them across London to spread the infection even further.

    Surely it would be better if they were all detained and individually quarantined and only released after they had been thoroughly tested and found negative, and moreover had paid their fines plus expenses.

    That may seem harsh, but I would prefer to deal with such selfish miscreants with that kind of severity if it helped to suppress the virus and so helped to make it possible for children to get back to school.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      January 25, 2021

      That is a really good idea Dennis and we could charge them for their incarceration too.

    2. anon
      January 25, 2021

      Once the vulnerable are vaccinated & infection hotspots like the NHS. Workers & patients- enforced via contract and or unless medically unfit.

      Then once in a position to offer a vaccine to whoever wants it within the UK . Ensure we have UK based labs,manufacturing & logistics set up to meet our needs with a very generous margin to spare for worldwide relief.

      Once setup for the variants we should start opening up domestically but being cautious of re-importing it. All entering the UK must be vaccinated and pass a negative test or be quarantined at there own expense.

      After UK needs have been met & supply becomes available we should setup facilities in NI which could enable timely vaccination throughout Ireland. We share a lot of history good and bad lets make some more of it good.

  57. John McDonald
    January 25, 2021

    Firstly the people who supported Brexit come from the left and the right and had many induvial reasons for supporting leaving the EU. Which does not mean leaving Europe.
    Yes a significant number of people are not following the rules.
    Why don’t we ask the virus what it will do next. It seems to be ever changing. Let’s be honest nobody knows for sure. It’s not like a visible enemy you can see. The delay time between start of a lockdown at any level and it’s
    observed effects is weeks not days.
    Not to repeat what has already been said, but a locked down in February 2020 solely in regard to passenger travel to and from aboard would have much lessened the impact of the virus and allowed the NHS to cope and outbreaks confined to smaller areas. The people shouting about Lockdowns and it’s effects are the ones that opposed an early international travel lockdown. How can Minister say when the lockdowns can end be lessened. It is a Medical Public Health problem not a Political view point/problem to talk/vote away.

  58. Stephen Reay
    January 25, 2021

    I’m not sure we are getting the full picture from the government, are they holding something back . Maybe there’s worse to come . They always extend the lockdown,just keep pushing it out and out. If there’s worse to come due to the new varients then we need to know. People have decisions to make and plan futures and paths to follow, if the government is holding something back heads will roll.

    1. steve
      January 25, 2021

      Stephen Reay

      “Iā€™m not sure we are getting the full picture from the government”
      ========

      Ten + points to that man !

      Stephen, no government has ever given it’s electors the full picture on anything.

    2. Lynn
      January 25, 2021

      Our heads are already rolling, no Tory MP has noticed that their voters are being killed off. What is wrong with them?

    3. Fred H
      January 26, 2021

      you woke up and smelt the coffee !!

  59. steve
    January 25, 2021

    These ‘scientists’ say they don’t know this, they don’t know that. They stand accused of being mere behavioural scientists, yet they seem arrogantly ignorant of public’s thinning patience.

    One thing is clear – these people either don’t know JS, or they’re part of something very sinister.

    Oh and – increasing the time between vaccinations is nothing to do with getting more people vaccinated, it’s all to do with restricted supply by foreign manufacturers and piss poor logistics management at government level. It’s pointless lying to us.

  60. R.T.G.
    January 25, 2021

    ā€œEither they need to show us mass vaccination is the promised game changer and they will relax as soon as all the vulnerable who wish have been jabbed, or they need to come up with a plan for us to live alongside the virus better if vaccination is not going to ban it.ā€

    Caught covid, as did my wife, early last March at the age of 72. Stayed at home, eschewed antipyretics, stayed warm, ate what I felt like, got better in a month and fully recovered in three months, apart from taste and smell which have been returning slowly since about October.
    Didn’t visit doctor, so not registered with any authority.
    Have been out to do family shopping every week since middle of March, so ample opportunity to become symptomatic again. Never tested.

    ā€œ…scientists work hard to understand the disease and remedies better,…ā€

    And some of these scientists have been kind enough to share their wisdom with the public, many of whom are perfectly capable of making good decisions based on that wisdom.

    By all means enable others to self-isolate and be cared for as they require and wish, but, come the Spring Equinox, I will not be playing along with this anymore, because firstly thereā€™ll be spring in the air and Iā€™ll want to get out and about much more.
    And secondly, by colluding with this regime for much longer, would be to admit that I live in a country run by cowards.

    1. Mark B
      January 26, 2021

      Great post ! Glad you both pulled through and happy to hear that you intend not to go along with this charade.

  61. formula57
    January 25, 2021

    When Ministers say “they are following the science” they do know they now sound like ridiculous charlatans do they?

  62. john waugh
    January 25, 2021

    Quoting figures from an Analysis in Daily Telegraph on 21 Jan. by Sarah Knapton ,Science Editor .
    This article was an excellent presentation with some clear thinking.
    The pandemic impact depends on age -PHE figures show risk of catching it and dying for people aged 80 or over is 1513 per 100,000 people/for a 50 year old 42.7 in 100,000/ down to 0.1 per 100,000 for 5 to 9 year olds. This is before vaccination .By springtime all over 50 and vulnerable are to be vaccinated which covers those who account for 99% of deaths. This will have a huge impact. (thinking positively at this stage).
    Healthy under 50s made up 0.94% of cov related deaths in 2020 -fewer than 700 of the 72,178 deaths (PHE)
    To put it in perspective 1700 deaths /year from road accidents in Britain.We accept that and the 7000 flu deaths in an average year and about 20,000 in a bad flu year.
    The ONS has estimated that 2 months lockdown between March and May caused 16,000 non -covid deaths and predicted an extra 26,000 on top of that by this March.They also forecast 81,500 deaths as a result of longer NHS waiting times .ONS estimates around 1 in 10 have already been infected in Britain and so will be immune.
    Now is the time to have the discussion of what is an acceptable level of risk to put an end to lockdowns.

  63. London Nick
    January 25, 2021

    Apologies for going off-topic, but this is something I feel very strongly about.

    A court has today ruled that Wirral council acted unlawfully when they ruled that a migrant claiming asylum was an adult rather than, as he claimed, a child. Many adult migrants are known to claim to be children in order to benefit from the more generous rules that apply to them, so this ruling will make the proper management of asulum seekers very much more difficult. In addition, by leading to adults being placed in children’s facilities, this will lead to a serious potential for child abuse.

    What I find utterly INFURIATING is that the government does not, when this sort of ruling is made, immediately change the law so that its policies can be carried out without further judicial interference. What the hell is the point of an 80 majority if you don’t use it to change the law when you (or, as in this case, your proxies) are blocked from implementing your policies?

    It is precisely this sort of WEAKNESS and STUPIDITY that I find unacceptable and why I cannot support this pathetic government.

    1. beresford
      January 25, 2021

      Has the thought occurred that mass immigration is in fact the undeclared policy and the politicians are therefore happy for it to be expedited by these court rulings while they shed crocodile tears? We were set to leave the ECHR until they realised it would remove an excuse for non-deportation of illegals.

  64. Richard
    January 26, 2021

    WHO said on 13 January 2021 that all asymptomatic positive PCR test results need to be confirmed by a 2nd test. See eg off-guardian “WHO (finally) admits PCR test is potentially flawed”.

    Sir John, please can you confirm that our health authorities are now implementing this latest (common sense) guidance?

    The number of doubling cycles used by PCR test labs also still needs to be disclosed.

    This is key to ending the “epidemic”.

  65. Jill Andrew
    January 26, 2021

    The current SAGE team need a break! How about HART (Health Advisory and Recovery Team) working out how the country can move forward?

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