My critics on here include those who complain I have gone soft on public spending and am too casual about the extent of borrowing. How wrong they are.
I have constantly called for a Growth strategy which is the best way to get the deficit down more quickly. I have pointed out that this year so far the deficit has undershot gloomy Treasury forecasts by Ā£60bn because the economy grew more quickly and so revenues shot up without any change of tax rates. I have also continuously pointed out that whenever a government has had the courage of cut rates of tax on incomes, gains and transactions it has always collected more revenue as more people work, invest moreĀ and switch assets more often.
I promote policies which will boost revenues substantially. Granting licences to produce more of our own oil and gas will mean a large increase in UK domestic tax revenues, and an end to UK consumers paying too much tax to foreign governments of the producing countries providing us with imports. Policies which promote growth also promote higher total income and employment levels at home which in turn delivers more tax revenue.
Nor have I been silent on reducing needless or wasteful spending. I am with many in urging the government to pursue more of the fraudulent payments made during the pandemic rapid response, where they should get more back than their critics imagine. I am pressing for the early end to widespread free covid tests, to make large reductions in the cost of theĀ very expensive test and trace programme. I regularly pursue the issue of closing down illegal migration, to cut the large costs of housing people once they have landed here from their smuggler runĀ small boat crossings. I voted against HS2 but accept a shorter version is now going ahead. I have turned my attention to the need for better timetables to maximise use and passenger fare revenue fromĀ a railway network which is receiving far too much subsidy for running too many largely empty trains. I supported the reductions in overseas aid spending, wishing to end all assistance to countries with nuclear weapons, space programmes and the rest. I lookĀ forward to huge savings on the cost of vaccinations, now thatĀ most people have had three doses against covid.
TheĀ numbers involved in these savings are large. Test and Trace cost Ā£37bn over two years and could drop to very little from April with the changes suggested. Vaccinations must have cost another Ā£20 bn or so where top ups will be much cheaper where needed going forward next year. Health procurement in total surged by Ā£44bn in 2020-21, with very high costs for finding enough PPE during the height of the pandemic when world markets were short of PPE and prices very elevated. This budget should be much lower next year.
February 13, 2022
Brexit has depressed by GDP by about 5%, and that is not a one-off, that is permanent decline. So either taxes have to go up to cover the shortfall, or we have to cut spending on the NHs etc. Or both. Your choice. It’s what you Brexiters voted for
Reply Nonsense. First year out we had very fast growth.
February 13, 2022
What do the Tories intend to do about the Ā£137 billion UK fraud each year?
I doubt if the fraudsters pay tax on it, somehow.
February 13, 2022
More to the point, what are they going to do about the Ā£14,000 bn pension debt that’s hidden off the books?
reply There is no debt. the state retirement pension is pay as you go, like NHS spend.It is matched by tax revenues which are also not recorded as a capitalised credit for future years.
February 14, 2022
Thank you Sir John for correcting that widely-propagated untruth.
February 14, 2022
The same is true of unfunded public sector occupational pensions then, by that measure.
February 14, 2022
I m not sure that’s correct NHL
State pensions are paid out via a combination of taxation and contributions.
February 13, 2022
A man who can accept spending Ā£800 ona roll of wallpaper is unlikely to cut wasteful spending.
February 13, 2022
or better, a woman who thinks she is entitled to spend that, yet contribute zero to the society appears happy to have the masses get cold and struggle to put food on their table.
February 13, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
Nor cancel Ā£150bn HS2
February 13, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
Indeed. Sir John finds himself in a very unpopular left of centre party. Not conservative by any sensible measure.
February 13, 2022
It is far too early to judge whether or not Brexit is a success. Apart from anything else covid has distorted everything. The key test will be whether or not the U.K. outperforms or underperforms the eurozone over the coming years. So far there is no evidence of underperformance. But the pressure is on the govt to demonstrate the benefits, which is a good thing. Your āstatisticā is of course pulled out of thin air. You wonāt win any arguments like that.
February 13, 2022
@Richard1; +100
February 13, 2022
The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020.
In 2020 the economy collapsed by nearly 10%.
This was the worst economic performance since 1709.
You just described it as āvery fast growthā Mr Redwood.
reply Tge U.K. left the single market and customs Union at the beginning of 2021, a fast growth year followed.
February 13, 2022
Yes 2021 is probably the fastest growth since 1709. What a silly statistic. Desperate stuff from these moaning leftists.
February 13, 2022
@Richard1; Indeed a desperately silly statistics, first used some on the hard right, complaining about the effects of the CV19 lockdowns and restrictions, we’re all economically doomed they bleated… š
February 13, 2022
Ah the hard right slur again.
Got any examples of who you actually mean Jerry?
February 13, 2022
@Andy; The UK ‘left’ [1] the EU about the same time as the international pandemic started to spread, by then wasn’t Italy already in lockdown, China certainly was, so affecting international trade thus many countrioes GDP, things got worse by March when the UK went into lockdown #1 – the fact that the UK’s economy has bounced back post CV19 restrictions, despite a continuing Brexit, proves the downturn was due to CV19 and not Brexit related.
[1] as out host points out, we effectively left the EU at the start of 2021, officially at 23:00hrs GMT on the 31st Dec. 2020, not at the start of 2020.
February 13, 2022
Incorrect – again. We left the EU, single market and customs Union at 11pm on 31st January 2020. Midnight Brussels time because we are subordinate to them. This is a simple statement of fact. Downing Street had a light show and Farage had a party that nobody went to. You can even check it on Wikipedia.
The end of 2020 was when the transition period ended. Brexitists gave businesses 11 months to prepare. Of course businesses didnāt actually find out what they had to prepare for until 24 December 2020 because thatās when the Brexitists agreed their embarrassingly bad trade deal.
So – as awkward as it is for you all – the year we left the EU was also the year of the biggest economic collapse in 3 centuries.
āBut there was a global pandemic which started in Chinaā – whinge the Brexitists! So? There was a global financial crash which started in George Bushās Republican America in 2007 – and somehow you blamed that on the EU. So it seems entirely fair we should blame your worst economic crash in 3 centuries on Brexit.
February 14, 2022
The global 2008 crash put the curtain-twitchers in a bit of a spin.
Some said it was entirely Gordon Brown’s fault.
Others that it was completely down to the European Union.
Obviously, both could not be right, though both could have been wrong, and as you point out, they indeed were.
February 14, 2022
Gordon followed EU policies with enthusiasm so both can actually be correct.
February 13, 2022
Gary Megson, even the EU only claims that the UK will suffer a 2.25% loss of output, page 21 here:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-finance/ip144_en_1.pdf
āFor the EU on average, the exit of the UK from the European Union on FTA terms is estimated to generate an output loss of around Ā½ % of GDP by the end of 2022, and some 2 Ā¼ % point for the UK. Compared to the āWTO assumptionā that was modelled in the Autumn forecast, the EU-UK FTA reduces this negative impact for the EU on average by about 1/3 and for the UK by about 1/4. Whereas the FTA sets tariffs and quotas on goods at zero, there is a significant increase in NTBs for both goods and services. Member States with a higher share of goods trade with the UK therefore benefit relatively speaking more from the FTA than those with a higher share of trade in services. In sum, while the FTA improves the situation as compared to an outcome with no trade agreement between the EU and the UK, it cannot come close to matching the benefits of the trading relations provided by EU membership.ā
Therefore the benefit to the UK of the free trade agreement, FTA, would be 2.25% of GDP divided by 3 = 0.75% of GDP.
On the EU’s model leaving on basic WTO terms without a special FTA would have cost the UK 3.00% of GDP but the FTA will retrieve one quarter of that, 0.75% of GDP, equivalent to Ā£16 billion a year. Not the Ā£660 billion or 30% of GDP cited by Boris Johnson during his television broadcast on Christmas Eve 2020:
https://youtu.be/T9TyveDbMZc?t=67
However just as “Member States with a higher share of goods trade with the UK therefore benefit relatively speaking more from the FTA” so the UK benefited less from the EU Single Market than the average because more of its trade was external. According to the table here:
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/Policy-Brief-Binnenmarkt-en_NW_02_2014.pdf
it was about 1% of GDP rather than the 2.1% average which was reported by Michel Barnier in 2012:
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/c505dbb4-64f1-40a6-8062-ebdea6240bd4
and on that basis the EU’s estimate should adjusted to about 2% without an FTA, about 1% with an FTA.
Which is close to the estimates provided to the German government by the ifo institute in 2017:
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-even-worst-case-brexit-will-be-bearable-for-eu/
“… with a comprehensive free trade deal between the EU and the U.K., the study predicts a long-term output loss … of … 0.6 percent for the U.K. … where the U.K. and the EU … fall back on World Trade Organization rules, the study predicts the U.K. economy would lose 1.7 percent of economic output over the long-term … ”
It is a general rule that foreign sources, rather surprisingly including those in the EU itself, come up with much lower numbers for the economic impact of EU membership than UK sources, including the Treasury, and of course there is a political reason for that.
And all this has to be seen in the context of the ca 2.5% natural growth rate of the UK economy.
February 13, 2022
However, I do think far too much money has been thrown into the sacred cow. Its far to top heavy with high earning pen pushers, far too much waste not investigated for savings.
At present it is NOT value for money!
February 13, 2022
Gary Megson :
I donāt know from where you obtain the figure of 5% and how you know it will be permanent.
There are far more powerful forces than Brexit reducing our GDP such as Covid in the short-term and Net Zero potentially in the long-term where our civil servants are planning for us to be using less than half our current energy all produced by intermittent windmills.
But far more importantly I wouldnāt agree with you that preventing a 5% fall in GDP is more important than freedom and retaining the right to elect and remove those who decide our laws and our policies.
February 13, 2022
Then there are the debts. The ONS has the pension debts increasing at 10% per annum, and that’s since their first report in 2005. Year on year, 10% increases.
Now what?
February 14, 2022
Sir John corrects you early on in this thread.
There are no pension debts for unfunded public sector or state pensions.
February 13, 2022
It might be good to have a proper look at figures: What about the FT on 30 December 2017 āUK economy: the year in numbersā.
Or for a longer view, ons.gov.uk āGross domestic product: Year on year growth, CVM SA %ā, 2014 was 3%, 2015 2.6%, 2016 2.3%, 2017 2.1%, 2018 1.7%, 2019 1.7%, 2020 -9.4%, 2021 7.5%.
February 13, 2022
And averaged over the pandemic, comparing Q3 2021 with Q4 2019, OECD tells us that the growth has been:
-1.9% for Japan, -1.5% for the UK, -1.4% for Canada, -1.3% for Italy, -1.1% for Germany, -0.1% for France and +1.4% for the USA (Real terms GDP growth across the G7, stats.oecd.org).
Beware the less than candid politician.
February 13, 2022
Another remainiac who can’t give up.i see there’s a lot in the papers today slagging off the governments decision to concrete the Cuadrilla Wells.
Energy makes up about half our foreign deficit and shale would reduce this considerably and find jobs and investments in some of the most deprived areas.
Get in there John and point out the nonsense of government policy.
Reply I have. I co signed the letter!
February 13, 2022
According to the CEO of Caudrilla, and Iām sure he wouldnāt say it if it wasnāt true, imported gas doesnāt count for ānet zeroā calculations. What an utter nonsense.
February 13, 2022
Indeed. A ridiculous Tory policy based on a religion not science. A real vote winner when the Bill’s start arriving in the spring. A special kind of stupid when we have our own.
February 13, 2022
@Gary Megson; But the economy was already ‘depressed our GRP by 5%’ before Brexit even took place, or perhaps you are claiming the constant subterfuge by Remainers caused the economy to retract by 5%, or if there has been any reduction in GDP the real cause is the effects of the pandemic perhaps?…
February 13, 2022
All good points. We should have an agenda to eliminate as many essentially parasitic jobs as possible by vast deregulation, simplifying tax, planning, employment… cutting red tape (tax and employment laws in particular). Parasitic jobs not just in the state sector buy many are created in the private sector too. Bank lending in particular is hugely damaged by absurd restrictions currently.
This is a win, win or would be if they did it – release all these accountants, tax advisers, compliance people, HR experts… and similar to get productive jobs instead. I see that rents have risen very significantly as government attack the rented sector with endless red tape, absurdly unfair tax rules (Osborne but not corrected), licencing, “safely” checks… so many landlords have just sold up – thus decreasing supply, increasing rents and damaging job mobility.
February 13, 2022
Just heard someone on the radio (LBC or Talk Radio not sure which) who had formally worked for The Office of Tax Simplification (set up by Osborne & Gauke nearly twelve years ago). She was saying what a wonderful job the OTS has done. Well perhaps it has but on on simplifying or rationalising taxation. The complexity, length of the tax code, fiscal stupidity and time wasting hassle for tax payers (and HMRC) must have almost doubled since then.
Doubtless Cressida Dick thinks she did a good job too!
February 13, 2022
Cressida Dick has certainly done a good job for her own finances if reports are to be believed.
Why do we seem to constantly reward failure at the taxpayers expense.
Government, Civil Service, Local Authorities, NHS, the list and money seems almost endless.
February 13, 2022
The rental sector is set to get much, much worse with the introduction of the requirement to only allow properties with an A-C energy rating certificate. For many older properties it will not be financially viable to get them to this standard. Landlords will be selling up in droves forcing tenants onto the streets or into other crowded accommodation. How can this be beneficial to anyone? The authorities don’t care about anyone only about getting a tick in the net zero box.
February 13, 2022
Indeed this is even more climate alarmist/net zero insanity and another cost that will have to be passed on to tenants or landlords will just sell up.
February 13, 2022
@Christine; “How can this be beneficial to anyone?”
Go try living in a property with a D or below energy rating, as a tenant rather than Landlord you might just find out!
“The authorities donāt care about anyone only about getting a tick in the net zero box.”
Oh they do, they care very much about the tenants, just not ‘slum’ landlords, given that a level C energy rating certificate is not exactly a high hurdle – if it is the property should perhaps be condemned anyway; and yes that would indeed see much sub-standard 1960s and ’70s high-rise flats razed to the ground once new terraced housing has been built.
Even without the misplaced “net zero” nonsense there is, once again, far to much sub-standard rental property in the UK, some of it is just old, but much of it has simply been willfully neglected by absentee landlords simply maximizing their profits.
February 13, 2022
You really don’t understand what this is all about. I suggest you do some research before criticising.
It’s nothing to do with the comfort and condition of the house.
It’s all about box-ticking. If you, for example, change heating from gas to electric the rating goes down. If you were to install a heat pump, which the Government wants people to do, then your rating goes down. The whole thing is bureaucratic nonsense.
No landlord should let out sub-standard properties but these regulations do nothing to stop this from happening. Rogue landlords will still be around because they don’t comply with any of the regulations. Only the good landlords who abide by the rules are affected. These are the same people who will be selling up and reducing the number of rentals available. It is a lose/lose for both tenants and landlords.
February 13, 2022
Sounds like the makings of a house price crash.
February 14, 2022
House prices will never go down whilst the population continues to rise.
February 14, 2022
They went down 2008-2011 while the population continued to rise, as they did in the 1990s.
Try again.
February 15, 2022
The effect of the Labour party’s huge mismanagement of the economy resulting in the financial crash caused the fall of house prices in 2008
But they soon rebounded.
Christine is right.
February 15, 2022
The Tories were in during the negative equity epidemic.
February 15, 2022
They caught the hangover.
February 13, 2022
Parasitic jobs?
Ah, yes, landlords…
February 13, 2022
Presumably you feel local authorities that rent properties and housing associations that rent properties are not parasitic NHL.
February 13, 2022
In general, correct.
February 14, 2022
What strange opinions you hold NHL
Three sectors providing property for rent in a housing market at similar prices yet one is bad and two are good.
February 14, 2022
Sorry P2, I had three times the experience of private landlords, three children in private accommodation for two to three years while they were at different universities. Maybe it is a problem in university towns but what was made available for Ā£300 to 450/month ten-fifteen years ago for 6-7 sq meter bedrooms plus access to minimally equipped kitchens and bathrooms was rather dismal, and that in relatively big houses where up to five students could be ālodgedā, ensuring a monthly rent of Ā£1,200 to Ā£2,000+ to the (absent) landlords (as most of the interactions were dealt with by agencies).
Moreover as you might certainly know local authorities and housing associations do not rent properties to students.
February 14, 2022
If you feel there is a great profit to be made from buy to let to students, as you seem to be suggesting, then why are you not a landlord yourself?
February 13, 2022
…which you number amongst them !!
February 14, 2022
I don’t.
February 14, 2022
you stated before that you rent a couple of properties out ! Just because you FEEL you are not parasitic doesn’t make it true.
February 14, 2022
You seem to be getting me mixed up with someone else – again.
February 14, 2022
Odd because I recall you boasting you rented out property NHL
February 14, 2022
NLH – I must be thinking about that split personality Martin!
February 15, 2022
P2, silly me, obviously I should have bought a buy-to-let property for students in each of the towns that my children had attended. Thank you for your oh so meaningful advice, Iāll pass it right away to my son with a child about to go to uni in two years time.
February 15, 2022
Yes you should have hef.
Many parents do buy properties for their student offspring.
It can be cheaper than renting.
Glad you appreciated my advice.
February 13, 2022
If there is not enough money to spend there won’t be growth . I find it difficult to assess whether spending smaller amounts for the many / larger amounts with public funding or large private /conglomerations would produce more growth .
Have Just watched a 75th birthday concert of and for Joan Baez ….I cried for most of the time, but the problems and response to problems don’t differ much . I wrote a poem 20 years ago.. ‘Now was the time’ Someone asked why do we need growth .. I suppose that is a good point as in reality things more or less stay the same but there are more mouths to feed and unequal global shares and those who are willing to perpetuate this .
February 13, 2022
Good morning – Again
We well know your position on many issues, Sir John but are frustrated that so few of your colleagues seem to either know themselves or care. Too busy partying I aver.
It has take some very key resignations, such as Lord Agnew and daming statements from both he and others to highlight the lack of effectiveness of this government. And with blood in the water and Johnson’s wannabe successors circling, suddenly we see, or at least perceive, things to be moving. I however am of the persuasion of ‘let’s wait and see ?
February 13, 2022
You’re wasted on the back-benches, Sir John. Government would be improved by your being in it and then adopting some more of your approach. But I have lost confidence in the ability of Johnson’s government to make the UK perform better economically. What am I doing with my personal investments? Reducing, substantially, the amount invested here in the UK and I’ll keep doing so until the Conservatives abandon socialism.
February 13, 2022
+1 Sea Warrior. Trouble is John and a handful of actual Conservatives on the back benches are now the odd ones out in the Conservative Socialist Party. Sadly no one is listening to them, especially not the two tax and waste socialist muppets in charge of the nations purse strings. Johnson has got to be the worst PM weāve had in many a year and thatās saying something as thereās a lot to choose from and yet still the idiots stand by him.
February 13, 2022
Prime Minister will roll back state and trust the people, says new Noā10 chief (Steven Barclay) according to the Telegraph.
Well we shall see, one hell of a lot of rolling back needed just to get back to the position we were in when Boris took over. large NI increases of 2.5%, red diesel tax grab, entrepreneursā relief, frozen personal allowances, the pension tax grab, new very oppressive self employment laws, the net zero expensive energy lunacy ā¦
I see it is reported that Cressida Dick will get a pay off of Ā£500k plus a pension index linked one assumes of Ā£160k PA about four times what the current lifetime limit is (Ā£1070k now frozen by Sunak) for most mortals. Not bad rewards for a total failure to serve the public.
February 13, 2022
āTotalā failure? your usual self importance shining through plus a hire and fire attitude steeped in the past when employees were treated like serfs. A regular feature of your posts.
What part of employment law and contractual obligations dont you understand. None of it.
I am not a fan of hers but like everyone she should be treated correctly. Back in the day, to save his political backside Ed Balls āfiredā the head of a failing social service. It was obvious she deserved to go but failure to use proper process wasted HMG a lot of money.
February 13, 2022
Not only was Cressida Dick a total failure, she should never have been appointed in the first place. The whole country knew this after the killing of Jean Charles de Menezes.
However, such was the arrogance of those who make these appointments that she was foisted onto the people of London anyway.
Itās nice to have friends in high places.
The cost of employing and firing such people is a separate but troubling issue.
February 13, 2022
+1. The appointment system is as bad as the people it appoints. If they pick a dud, why not change the appointers who made that decision?
February 13, 2022
Because current public sector appointments are left of centre woke selection processes, not changed by the Torys.
February 13, 2022
Easy hire and fire benefits good employees too. This as they do not have to carry the poor/useless or just in the wrong job ones. Also very easy to take people on as employees know you can get rid of them if it does not work out. Thus far more available jobs for everyone. The availability of lots of other good jobs is the only real protection for employees. Also cuts out all the essentially “parasitic” workers in the legal profession, tribunals and the likes and make industry far more productive/competitive.
February 13, 2022
@LL; “Easy hire and fire benefits good employees too [+ an end to tribunals]”
At times I really am not sure if you are for real of a parody invented by someone on the hard left?!
If anyone wants to have a majority of the electorate running towards the Left; and trade union membership, in fear of their jobs, why not suggest a return to pre 1940s (if not pre 1900s era) employment laws etc.
Why might an employee be poor/useless, might is have roots in poor/useless on the job training? Why might someone be in the wrong job, might it have something to do with the hard rights obsession that if someone is not in a job they are feckless, or perhaps the two are linked, useless people in the wrong jobs, because some on the hard right think people are workshy if in training/college when outside of paid employment and thus ‘at the taxpayers expense’?
“Also very easy to take people on as employees know you can get rid of them if it does not work out. Thus far more available jobs for everyone.”
I thought you wanted a high calibre of employee, you do not get that with a high churn rate, you get that by employee/employer loyalty -and training.
February 13, 2022
Why might an employee be poor/useless? – all sort of reasons drink, drugs, sloth, stupidity, fecklessness, carelessness other family pressuresā¦
February 13, 2022
They are not ācontractual obligationsā these are obligations that lawyers, tribunals and government have lumped on top of the actual contract to the huge disadvantage of the country, the employers, the economy and the better employees. This as they then end up carrying the others and work for a company with lower profits to pay staff, less able to compete worldwide and far less to reinvest.
Plus it reduces the number of alternative jobs available as employers more reluctant to take people on given all the liabilities.
February 13, 2022
Nig1, on the point about employment law, if she resigned because she was not up to the job, why is there need for a pay off. If she was forced out because she was not up to the job then yes, potentially a legal case for a payoff, but not a moral nor an honorable case.
The honorable thing to do would be to walk with just the existing pension arrangements.
She won’t be short of security contract offers so will not starve
February 13, 2022
She rose to the top of a very large pyramid – the remuneration, as such, is quite moderate in comparison to similar rewards in the private sector, which would have seen her in super yachts and private jets.
February 13, 2022
Totally agree LL. As for Cressida Dick, only in our bloated public sector would someone get so handsomely rewarded at taxpayers expense for utter failure. Time to put an immediate stop to this casual generosity with hard pressed taxpayers money and itās high time public sector pensions were reformed and subjected to the markets the same as those in the private sector. Itās totally unfair that private sector taxes are used to guarantee much higher pensions often earlier than actual retirement age that they themselves can only dream of. Of course thereās no chance of reform because one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current model are MPs themselves.
February 13, 2022
+1 Their unions have been allowed to flourish too and strikes of essential services allowed to continue.
February 13, 2022
JĆ²olsB
+1 Good post.
February 13, 2022
@JoolsB; “only in our bloated public sector would someone get so handsomely rewarded at taxpayers expense for utter failure.”
There has been plenty of instances were utterly useless ‘high-flyers’ within the private sector have been handsomely rewarded via golden Good-byes (and perhaps NDAs), it’s just that most companies manage to keep such facts under wraps for a while (unless the shareholders kick up a stink), by the time the fact are in the wider domain the company has turned its fortunes around so all is forgiven!
February 14, 2022
Have a look at the occupational pensions – and minimum wages – of ordinary workers in Germany, and in France etc., both public and private sector.
They seem to afford what you claim to be unaffordable, nay, more than that.
February 13, 2022
No public servant should be paid higher than our PM
February 13, 2022
I agree – but the PM and senior ministers should, arguably, be paid more than they are.
P.S. Obviously the current PM is over-paid and needs putting back to Ā£80K.
February 13, 2022
@glen cullen; Fine, the PM will need to be paid more then!
February 13, 2022
Matt Ridley is quite right today as usual:-
āThe hair-shirt eco-elite donāt want pain-free fusion power
The green zealots are far more interested in lecturing others than improving lives and the planet through technology.ā
That BBC environment corespondent dope (yet another PPE chap) was desperate (in reporting on the recent fusion developments) to point out that this would not arrive in time to make any difference the net zero agenda.
The net zero agenda Justin is totally misguided anyway & with better nuclear on the way it is even more deluded. The solution being pushed wind, EVs, solar, hydrogenā¦ do not even save any or any significant CO2 just export it together with the jobs and economic benefits.
February 13, 2022
Just looked to see what the govt. signed up to with the Paris agreement.
Was that May? Trump refused I think?
They are hog-tied re fracking and new coal mines. Both would both mean that the crazy carbon ātargetsā could not be met and that carbon extraction (š¤Ŗ) which isnāt even a thing yet, would have to be employed!!
āCāmon ( prod in back) ..just sign on the dotted line and tell whoppers to explain overcrowding, poverty hunger coldā¦wonāt be for long anyway. And theyāll never noticeā¦..ā
February 13, 2022
The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015. So having ālooked to see what the govt had signed toā, you should be aware that it could only have been signed by the politicians in place at that date. So was Theresa May in power? Was D.J.Trump?
February 13, 2022
Actually.
If I leave this page too many times to look up stuff I lose my place and anything I might have already typed.
I asked the question hoping that some clever person might set me straight.
I note that you did not kindly oblige.
Stillā¦you did read my comment very thoroughly!
February 13, 2022
Have you tried opening another tab?
February 13, 2022
MW, a tab, what is that?š
February 13, 2022
OK, fair enough. LL, Tell us when fusion will be practically available to replace āwind, EVs, solar, hydrogenā: 2025, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60, 70, ā¦ later? Your comment appears to indicate that fusion could arrive in time to make a difference in the net zero agenda. So what is your educated guess?
Such an information is required for planning all things energy-related in the new few years: we need to know from the best source, donāt we? What does Lord Ridley say? What do you say?
February 13, 2022
hefner :
Iām not working in the field of nuclear fusion so I have no idea if and when it will be feasible but I note that the civil servants at BEIS seem very confident that it will be possible by 2040.
Their Dec 2020 Energy White Paper states on P59 :
āWe aim to build a commercially viable fusion power plant by 2040ā
It would seem a bit odd then for BEIS to be spending Ā£billions on decarbonising our electricity by 2035 using thousands of windmills and some as yet to be defined/decided upon non-fossil fuel storage system for grid stability and backup. Plus subjecting the country to reduced amounts of intermittent power and sub-optimal electrical devices.
But then the whole of our civil service is following Robert Conquestās second and third laws of politics.
February 13, 2022
Well we also have other better nuclear before fusion is likely to be practical but 30 years is my estimate. Anyway CO2 is not a climate emergency and anyway wind, EVs, hydrogen, walking, cycling, public transport does nothing or virtually nothing for CO2 levels anyway. EVs and Hydrogen make the CO2 problem worse not better.
February 13, 2022
What else do you expect from a holder of the degree in Preposterous Propositions and Exhortations?
February 13, 2022
Agree L/L. If people think that by using renewable energy we are going to change the climate they are delusional. All it will do is make us all poorer with a lower standard of living. In this day and age, how can it be right that many people are having to choose between eating and heating?
February 13, 2022
My pensioner neighbours will be in this position because of Governments not zero policy. Disgraceful.
February 13, 2022
A brilliant post today John. If only our PM could be advised by yourself. The UK would actually thrive again. Having a real Brexit would also help and sorting out NI is imperative.
February 13, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
Spot on FupS. Most of us agree except the idiots in charge, Johnson and Sunak, who against much opposition sem to be intent of going ahead with their job destroying and unnecessary NIC rise rather than back down. Itās all about saving face with these two clueless out of touch rich boys.
February 13, 2022
+1000000
February 13, 2022
All Boris need is a working compass in the JR mode. Boris can just tell the jokes.
February 13, 2022
Matthew Lynn today:- āFracking would have saved Britain from the energy crisis
Our vast reserves of shale oil could have spared us from rocketing gas pricesā
It could indeed have done this and earned the country much needed money too. But the net zero fake green loons banned it. In the US gas was/is about 1/3 to 1/2 the UK price. Rendering many UK industries totally uncompetitive and pushing up the costs of living hugely and destroying/exporting jobs and cutting wages and living standards hugely too. Well done Ed Milliband, Cameron, May, Boris, Kwatang, Hands and all those daft virtue signalling MP dopes.
February 13, 2022
Indeed this has been very obvious for 10+ years
February 13, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
L/L. Yes and look at the thousands of jobs it could have created, many in the red wall seats. A real opportunity missed by an incompetent government.
February 13, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
Indeed. A few villages are missing their idiots with those named.
February 13, 2022
It is a pity that more of your MP colleagues do not agree with you. While the squander bug, eco zealot remains PM there may be words about change but no actual meaningful change. His continued presence is a toxic reminder of his administrations contempt for the rest of us.
February 13, 2022
+1000
February 13, 2022
‘MP colleagues do not agree with you’.
Clearly we should question their label ‘Conservative’.
February 13, 2022
The partys position on a great many policy areas has changed to the extent that this party is no longer the conservative party
February 13, 2022
There are 3 types of websites on the internet
1) Websites that keep their comments switched on and have lots of people checking them and agreeing. This is one such site.
2) Websites that keep their comments switched on and have lots of people checking them and disagreeing.
3) Websites that have switched their comments off. For example The BBC.
February 13, 2022
Why in the age of computers, does the army of civil servants and similar pen pushers, such as admin staff in the NHS continue to grow ?
February 13, 2022
Yessss! ?????????????why!
February 13, 2022
Empire building?
February 13, 2022
Back in the 90s I did a short contract in a department a returned to do the same contract in 2010sā¦with the advent of computers their business effectiveness and efficiency had reduced
My conclusion to this result was clear, they had a five-fold increase in bureaucracy (not work), including paper back-up, IT maintenance, job risk assessment, H&S assessment and legal risk assessment
February 13, 2022
…….and all the woke/ legislation, race and diversity checking and box ticking.
February 13, 2022
The same for lawyers. A contract that was two pages before word processors now becomes 50+ pages and the lawyers charge far more & not less. No increase in efficiency quite the reverse.
February 13, 2022
Maylor. What a VERY GOOD QUESTION!
February 13, 2022
Does the govt. allow itself much freedom in economic policy?
Perhaps it does as it is told, whatever the consequences, by the IMF and suchlike?
Strikes me as strange how these bodies have come up with such specific ācovidā economic solutions. Spend as much as you can. Tax to address the inequalities exposed by covid etc.
One might have imagined that during a plague governments would have desperately clung to the status quoā¦.praying that the tried and tested would keep working!
February 13, 2022
The certainly followed the heavily Chinese funded UN World Health Organisation’s plan for combating th pandemic. Originally both ourselves and Sweden were going to allow the virus to follow its course, but a combination of BBC scare stories and President Macron threatening to close French ports forced our hand.
We hear from our kind host the importance of self reliance on things such as food and energy, but we do not talk much about our reliance on French ports. Perhaps the planed ‘free ports’ may address this ?
February 13, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
You offer an appealing vision of what could be. All that is needed is to get rid of this present useless Government and a quick start can be made. Instead we brace for the impact of the Sunak Slump.
February 13, 2022
Yes but surely this stuff should run through Tory MPs veins like blue ink? Instead they, and I donāt understand why the senior pros like yourself havenāt put the block in, have allowed the Government to turn into high tax, big state, interventionist Social Democrats.
It is shameful that it has taken a failing PM and appalling opinion polls to remind you why people voted for you.
February 13, 2022
It could be a lack of ambition, and/or laziness. The party just has to be a tiny bit better than their competitors to get votes. The voters only have a choice of incompetents, unless they are willing to risk a lost vote for a newer party, as happens under FPTP.
Of course, the destruction of the UK could be a deliberate strategy, knowing from experience how undemocratic Parliament can be, and their ‘loyalty’ to the EU in preference to supporting their own country and the wishes of the people who pay them.
February 13, 2022
Seems to me Shirley we may as well take a risk on voting for a newer party such as Reform. Like you say, not much to choose between Blue Labour and Red Labour anyway.
February 13, 2022
+1 Shirley
February 13, 2022
Nig L
Except they’re bound to reach the wrong conclusion as to why they’re failing. The Red Wall wanted Brexit Done and hated the prospect of a Woke and PC government so turned Tory.
The Tories will conclude instead that they are not Leftist enough. It is the softest option, the line of least resistance, or so they may think.
Well.
“It’s the economy, stupid !”
A general election against a backdrop of hardship without tangible effort to provide hope of improvement will be a disaster – eco lunacy will see the Tory majority crumble. So too will their abject surrender to Woke.
A people sitting on huge energy resources and surrounded by fish and yet begging for both and being ordered to go vegan and ride bicycles.
February 13, 2022
I suppose that the govt. keeps up the āgloomy forecastsā in order to wring more money out of us?
What happened to āAusterityā? Self discipline and potholes for thee but not for me!
Never much mention of the cash they chuck around so they can meet their international commitments. People too worried about āPartygateā to notice. Surely this was ALWAYS the Downing St office culture? Champers in hampers through the back gate?
And now look at what theyāve done. Our way of life demolished.
Just so they can strut the world stage and stuff their back pockets/save their own skins?
And they havenāt finished yet I bet!
February 13, 2022
I generally support our host’s economic comments – they are sensible, and what a true Tory government should be following.
It is time however for a full analysis of the money spent over the last 2 years, many will say it was wasted on frivolous ideas that brought very little return, if any. Those that authorised the high spending must be brought to account, and made to justify their action.
February 13, 2022
+multi many
YES!
February 13, 2022
Any such enquiry would be a whitewash. Excuses such as ‘it was an emergency’ and ‘no-one knew what was going to happen’ are already abroad about the purchase of duff PPE – even though there is no comment on why we never had sufficient or in date stuff in store for the NHS in the first place. Same with the 37 billion and still on-going down the drain on Test and Trace. We will never know the extent of it, or who got rich out of it except the couple of morsels some newspapers have been able to dredge up, even then no criticism or requests for any money back. As for the billions lost, written off just apparently dished out without any checks as they cannot be traced now, whilst many small people went bust. I used to get chased for small amounts by the Revenue, but it is the old story, if you owe enough it becomes the problem of the lender not the recipient.
February 13, 2022
Yes – we run that risk of a whitewash, but it depends on who does it — The worse the whitewash though, the more clear cut it will be that something is badly amiss – in any case it would bring more awareness to the whole subject and hopefully nail certain individuals.
February 13, 2022
Bryan Harris,
Agreed. However it would expose cronyism and deals made over the telephone without due process. So it would further embarrass government.
Therefore it will not happen.
February 13, 2022
Indeed – such things that can damage reputations are normally buried or kept on the shelf for too long.
How do we exert real pressure to make it happen, with complete honesty?
February 13, 2022
John and his party are now unreconstructed Keynesians simply because it’s convenient to be so. It is the only way his party can stay relevant now the left dominate the narrative. And so the State snatches more to fund its power grab from the private sector.
It is noticeable that John and his part never calls for public sector spending cuts nor calls for reform of Labour’s unionised public sector and its client State.
All that has been created since 1997 has been built upon by John and his party. They have done nothing to reverse the destructive impact of Blair’s vile politics. Indeed they have promoted Blair’s agenda
It is the deceit I find nauseating. The Tory party knows full well it is now almost identical Labour in every aspect and that they do not offer a competing vision to Labour’s Socialist State, woke vision.
I find it fascinating that John and his party always tend to focus on the economy and shy away from social and civil issue like progressive barbarism, freedom of expression, woke intolerance, diversity politics, hate crime phenomena now driving a stake into our very nature and attacks on our very identity. All of this the Tories have taken on board because they no longer can be bothered to oppose it…Well, this moral weakness is destroying the very fabric of our nation and the Tories working with Democratic party-Labour are resposnible
reply Bizarre. this is an article recommending billions of spending reductions!
February 13, 2022
Now that Omicron, a cold, is well and truly dominant, it is long overdue to scrap entirely the failure which is Test and Trace. Scrap the vaccinations which have proved a failure and which have caused too many deaths and harms to be considered in any way safe. They have proved only partially effective and unlike natural immunity, very time limited. Scrap all compulsory mask wearing. How much has been spent on masks that serve no purpose and are already an environmental hazard?
Growth is the obvious way out and producing our own oil, gas and coal should be part of that growth and non negotiable!
Scrap SAGE. They have proved counter productive and always wrong in their predictions, thank you Prof Mystic Meg Ferguson, and in future ask a cross section of scientific advice in the fields required. Without the input of SAGE the cost of lockdown could have been saved!
February 13, 2022
A good list Sir John.
What is your view on using the Astra Zennnecca vaccine instead of the expensive mRNA ones? 10 times less expensive, as effective and much reduced logistical costs.
Now we have used up the orders of the expensive ones (diversifying the risk at the beginning so an OK strategy) can we revert to an effective and value for money treatment going forward?
February 13, 2022
I have not suggested that John Redwood has gone soft on debt. I have suggested he is actively working against prudent government prioritising his present over our future. He has recently performed a ludicrous hand brake turn ( for a chap of his age ) and decided the OBR and other warnings are correct. This is to cover his tracks in the hope that no-one will notice that while he appears to be entering through the French Windows he was in fact by the mirror shooting the victim with a poison dart
As I pointed out the OBR cite Brexit as a major drag on growth as do all reputable sources. That said ..a more honest man would admit that Brexit has vast costs . Predictably the UK has paid those costs and then relapsed into high tax protectionism sclerotic bureaucracy and inflexible supply that characterised its pre EU decline
reply I.e. I got it right . I forecast faster growth and lower deficit that OBR last year but not this year! you hate it when I’m right.
February 13, 2022
Ā£4.7 million a day spent on hotel accommodation.
Peanuts in terms of govt. wanton wastage I supposeā¦
but at the very least people in hotels donāt tend to go hungry or cold!
February 13, 2022
Everhopeful. Troube is it doesn’t stop at hotels. What about health care, dentistry, education and the whole cost of administration not forgetting final housing. I think the overall cost must be MUCH higher.
February 13, 2022
+1
Yes. Very true.
And of course what with all of us being shut out of our paid for healthcare for two years or soā¦there must have been a lot of fast tracking!
Suddenly a no wait NHS!
February 13, 2022
A youth club employing 5 staff and supporting 100+ youths in various programmes has an annual running cost of Ā£1m
Therefore that Ā£4.7m a day could support 5×365=1825 youth clubs annually
But the reverse is true, councils having been closing youth clubs etc due to financial budget constraints year on year
No money for our youths development but 4*hotels for illegal immigrants
February 13, 2022
I think you have been clear in your views over the years JR, just a shame the Government thinks otherwise.
The tax burden on people has grown and grown over the years, with it’s ever increasing rates, scope, complication, and it’s ever shrinking allowances (Fiscal Drag).
The general public now have less disposable income to spend as a percentage of their income than ever before, due to taxation, regulation, insurance, and a whole host of fees/payments required by the State.
Then they (the Government) wonder why the real economy is not growing.
February 13, 2022
I see that after asking The Sunās readers for ideas on how to seize the opportunities of Brexit on 10/02, JRM is now asking the Expressā readers. Two communities of top-notch specialists. He should really complete his surveys by asking JRM and his faithful contributors.
February 13, 2022
Surely if we cant stop illegals landing at Dover we could use the overseas aid budget to finance their care. We cant keep giving away money to overseas countries when their population is needing aid here.
February 13, 2022
Heard it all before, just waiting for the bank bail-in and few hundred billions to be given to the elite as usual and not forgetting lager salary, bonus and pension increase’s for elite people with gov jobs.
I want thank you and your party friend’s for the high inflation and fuel prices and for throwning the old age pension under the bus into the gutter.
I would like to say that you confusing high inflation and money printing with growth, the only growth i have seen is the national debt from 600 billion pounds in 2008 to 2.4 trillion plus in 2022, that the only growth i have seen along with companies debt, soon be looking at 3 trillion debt.
February 13, 2022
Yes this is what so many people don’t understand – lower rates often leads to higher overall take. Humans work on incentives, very few are happy to pay tax “for the greater good” or “according to their ability”, as the communist mantra goes. Partly because we’ve come to realise that the other side of the coin is not true – no-one takes out “according to their need”, they grab as much as they can and often the “need” is a pretence (as evidenced by the drop of c. 70% in disability claims when testing was brought in).
The Laffer curve was actually just a diagram drawn on a napkin in a restaurant by Mr Laffer in a meeting with US Treasury officials, a rough sketch showing that the total take is roughly inversely proportional to tax rate, up to a point in either direction. Clearly when you reach 100% tax rate, no-one has any incentive to do any work at all, so the take hits zero. When you reduce rates to zero, you won’t be collecting anything so the take will be zero.
The task for government is to find the sweet spot, where the total take is maximised. There is no reliable calculation for this, since Laffer’s curve was simply an illustration designed to demonstrate a fundamental principle which has been shown to be true in history (the Weimar republic is one, JFK’s administration did it by accident, reducing rates as a moral principle and expecting the take to drop, but were surprised when it actually went up).
February 13, 2022
You really cannot talk about budget deficits without mentioning the elephant in the room – how much the rest us subsidise the elderly.
I am not ageist. I donāt hate old people. But I do hate this system which prioritises the wealth and health of the old – the richest demographic- over the wealth and health of everybody else.
Pensions, social care for the elderly and NHS care for the elderly are completely unsustainable. This is around half of all government spending going on about 18% of the population. Crucially, these people have mostly NOT contributed nearly as much into the system as they take out. This is unsustainable.
Worse, when more money is needed for social care for the elderly – as it is now – what have the Tories done? Massively increased National Insurance. This is a tax paid by employers and employees – most elderly people are not paying for it.
There is something wrong with a system when the richest demographic needs subsidising by everybody else. But it is easy to see why it happens when that same demographic votes as a bloc for a minority party which retains power on the backs of their votes.
The Baby Boomers have caused so much harm to our country. We need to start saying no – and we need to turn off the tap of free money. Pay for yourselves.
February 13, 2022
As a Gen X myself tend to agree. The Boomer’s allowed the drift to the Left. They turned the country soft and have lived in perpetual teenage. Worst of all they voted in Tony Blair. They also get among the lowest pensions in Europe.
Speaking of my own Boomer parents. I’d like to see where this free help is in their dotage. My brother and I have provided the vast majority of it.
February 13, 2022
Wow, you’re another one. This site is has enough people that sound like cracked records. I’d love to pay for myself. If you give me back the national insurance and some of the tax I have paid all my life, backdated and invested into a sensible fund, I’ll happily pay for myself. When I needed the NHS last year it wasn’t there! So I did have to pay for myself. Give me my money back!
Oh, and my taxes have paid for your education, dentistry as a child, roads, police etc. etc. Every public service you have used in your life, the baby boomers have paid for it. Get a grip. You sound like an idiot.
February 14, 2022
sound like?
February 13, 2022
Andy,
Iām not ageist and I donāt hate young people. But I do think that many of the young today have become unthinking and only interested in themselves and when questioned about any subject the answer given is just āwhateverā.
What is really needed is to bring back conscription for all young people following on from the end of school.
Not military conscription but social conscription where the youngsters are given jobs to assist local authorities and local institutions in whatever way they can.
At the same time these youngsters can be taught useful trades such as carpentry, plumbing, electrics, HGV driving, healthcare, etc.
They could be introduced to the real world of useful, non-parasitic jobs and weaned off the gaslighting Marxist nonsense they are taught today in many of our schools.
February 14, 2022
Original Richard. I love this post. Brilliant.
February 13, 2022
Off topic:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/good-friday-agreement-under-huge-pressure-says-shadow-ni-secretary-3566233
“Good Friday Agreement under āhuge pressureā says shadow NI secretary”
“Mr Kyle told Skyās Trevor Phillips On Sunday: āWe have a Prime Minister goes to Northern Ireland, makes an absolute solemn promise there will be no border down the Irish Sea and has no intention of honouring that promise, and in fact breaks it straightaway.”
Agreeing with him:
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/the-northern-ireland-peace-agreement-is-crumbling-but-boris-johnson-does-not-seem-to-care-1456158
“The Northern Ireland Peace Agreement is crumbling, but Boris Johnson does not seem to care”
February 13, 2022
Oh Lord, is it impossible for Boris Johnson or any of his supporters to ever tell the truth?
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/brandon-lewis-northern-ireland-protocol-very-different-to-what-we-envisaged/
“Northern Ireland Protocol ‘very different to what we envisaged’, NI Sec. declares”
“The UK was ‘never given any reason to believe’ the EU would check all goods entering Northern Ireland as part of the NI protocol, Brandon Lewis tells LBC.”
So what did Boris Johnson expect when he proposed āan all-island regulatory zone on the island of Ireland, covering all goods including agri-food”, with “goods regulations in Northern Ireland” being “the same as those in the rest of the EU.ā? That the EU would just take it on trust that goods coming in from the rest of the UK would comply with EU regulations, and even when the regulations in Great Britain diverged?
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/02/04/you-can-interfere-too-much/#comment-1297352
This despicable Prime Minister and his government and his party are not just treating the unionists in Northern Ireland with contempt, they are treating all of us as fools.
February 13, 2022
NI would appear lost to the EU thanks to the remainers not to mention some across the pond.
So much for “There will be no border down the Irish Sea”.
Comes to something when we can’t believe anything we are told particularly of such great importance.
February 14, 2022
Thanks 100% to Frost, and to the Tories who voted to ratify the deal.
You can chuck in the Leave and Tory voters of the elctorate too.
February 13, 2022
I discovered the reports of the auctions for UKA allowances at the website of ICE, who run them on behalf of government. Since the first auction in May last year they have already raised over Ā£5bn for the Treasury, against a forecast from the OBR of just Ā£0.9bn for 2021-22. Presumably it was thought that Ā£0.9bn was quite sufficient tax, against at the time much lower hydrocarbon prices. With UKA prices having reached Ā£90/tonne CO2e, the 80.5 million allowances for sale in fortnightly auctions this year are set to raise Ā£7.2bn, a huge tax on industry, aviation and electricity supply: previously the carbon floor price was just 20% of this level at Ā£18/tonne CO2e. It is adding around Ā£8bn to electricity costs for consumers and industry.
The excuses for these impositions on consumer bills and attacks on industry cannot be justified.
February 13, 2022
Mark,
Thanks for your posts.
February 13, 2022
Perhaps Mr Hughes would help us out?
read on —-
An energy firm has apologised after 74 customers hit by power cuts during Storm Arwen accidentally received compensation cheques for trillions of pounds. Northern Powergrid is paying tens of thousands of pounds to customers hit by days of outages in November.
But a number with Halifax and Newcastle postcodes received cheques made out for 13-figure sums.
Northern Powergrid said a clerical error was to blame.
Pictures of the erroneous cheques have been circulating on social media days after the firm was criticised for taking months to process compensation claims.
xxxxxx Hughes, 44, from Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire, shared a picture of his cheque for more than Ā£2.3tn.
February 13, 2022
I agree with you Sir John.
It is a shame though, that while more of our North Sea Gas is to be allowed now, apparently all chances of fracking have now been prevented. Presumably that is Energy Department giving in to minority groups saying they were worried about earthquakes and the water table.
How strange that this should happen here, while Biden’s U.S. has realised that all such potential dangers have been overcome and their economy can not survive without oil and gas from fracking.
The N.H.S. would cost far less and run much better if most of the Administration staff were sacked. It is them, I think, that cause so much waste as well as them being on high salaries.
You are right to still press for removal of V.A.T. on energy and also to delay the N.I. hike until the N.H.S. has been thoroughly reorganised.
February 13, 2022
All your suggestions are very sensible and logical but I have to ask ‘Who is listening ?’ not just the ERG I hope.
February 14, 2022
Like most, I’m no economist, but some thoughts all the same.
Yes, UK isn’t doing well … I see, for example, that FTSE-100 has yet to get past its pre-covid level whilst the US S&P-500 has grown 50% or so in the same time. The Nasdaq has done even better which, I suppose, points to the success of US high-tech.
* Given new petrol/diesel cars and gas boilers are being phased out pretty soon now, I’m not seeing the logic of more oil/gas … surely demand will reduce. Even if the government back tracks, customers are making their own choices ( eg look for electric cars on the roads of Wokingham ).
* I know there are a lot of climate sceptics here, but you have to consider that many are not. Many individuals and countries are going “green” at a fast rate and surely this is a huge business opportunity. Those quick off the mark are doing better at growing green manufacturing ( eg Telsa factory in Germany not UK, Wind turbines made in Denmark ). Surely we must be doing as much as we can to get a fair share of this emerging market.
* It seems to me that some sectors are under taxed, especially as tax rules become dated. I’m thinking here parts of the financial industry, cryptocurrencies and large data centres (Google, Amazon, Apple etc).
* Obviously more clamping down on tax avoidance by the rich and large businesses. Eg see if we can ban the unethical setting up companies to get cheap loans to avoid income tax … I’m pretty sure those in public office aren’t allow such tactics, the same should apply to all. A vast simplification of the tax rule book should naturally reduce loopholes.
* In a globalised world, many companies will simply setup where ever its cheapest to do so. Surely governments should be working more together to level out local taxes to reduce this effect.
Reply World demand for oil and gas is forecast to rise this decade. U.K. demand for gas for home heating and for industry now entails importing 53%of our needs, so plenty of scope to substitute lower carbon producing home gas which will also boost tax revenues here.
February 14, 2022
> World demand for oil and gas is forecast to rise this decade.
Googling I found http://oeuk.org.uk/energy-demand-scenarios-a-window-into-the-future/
* Total energy drop 34% ( 2020 to 2050 )
* Petrol demain drop 85%
* Gas demand drop 75%
Also https://www.statista.com/statistics/808908/gas-consumption-projections-european-union-eu-28/
I’m not saying you are wrong, but if you could share the source of your assertion that would be very helpful.
Reply BP annual energy review
February 15, 2022
> BP annual energy review
Ah, many thanks.
But looking at BP’s report at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2020-region-insight-eu.pdf they say :
“Production of all fossil fuels declines across all three scenarios in the EU, dropping by 93% in Rapid, and 82% under BAU.”
So I would still assert that investing in oil and gas to produce growth is unlikely to work since the reports above predict a very large drop in consumption.
The BP report also says :
“At the same time, renewablesā share of the primary energy mix increases sharply, reaching 58%, 63% and 39% in Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual (BAU) respectively”
“The growth in renewables is principally underpinned by wind power, which exceeds 12 EJ in all three scenarios by 2050. Rapid and Net Zero see similar levels of growth in solar at over 9 EJ.”.
“Conversely, hydrogenās share of the primary energy mix increases markedly under Rapid and Net Zero, growing to 7 EJ and 13 EJ respectively by 2050. The EU accounts for between 9% ā 16% of global hydrogen demand by the end of the outlook, behind China and the US.”
So BP agrees with my earlier assertion that we should be investing more in wind.
Interesting that BP also see a big future for hydrogen, although I’m less sure myself ( hydrogen is always going to be more expensive that electricity ), it would certainly be worth a look for your growth policy.
Many thanks.
Reply World use of fossil fuels increases this decade
February 15, 2022
The sectoral balances need to be taken into consideration.
It is easy to show that
Government Borrowing + Private Sector borrowing = External Current Trade Deficit.
Therefore if we want Government Borrowing to be reduced we need to persuade the Private Sector to borrow more and/or the trade deficit to be brought into closer balance.
The former will be difficult when interest rates are rising. The latter will also be difficult politically as it will probably require a lower exchange rate and so higher prices for imported products.