The government is pleased to report that growth has been considerably stronger this year than the Treasury forecasts. Employment has grown well and unemployment is low. Tax revenues are well up, and the budget deficit was Ā£50bn lower at the half year than forecast, and has beaten forecast a bit more since. The one piece of bad news is inflation is also well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with prices surging further on the supply disruptions caused by the Russian war.
Looking forward the danger is higher prices coupled with the planned tax rises will cut real incomes too sharply, leading to a fall in effective demand and a slowing of the economy. Far from making it easier to get the deficit down more, this will get in the way of progress in reducing the amount of new borrowing by slowing tax revenues. The government therefore proposes to reverse the impact of theĀ tax rises. It will cancel the National Insurance hike. It will remove VAT from domestic fuel and from green products that help people cut their energy bills. It will make a modest reduction in petrol and diesel duty. As costed by the Treasury this will cost Ā£20bn of revenue forgone, under half the amount of the financial improvement so far this financial year. In practice there will be more revenues from more jobs and more activity as these policies limit the damage to growth and output that will otherwise occur.
The government will adopt and reinforce the Bank’s 2% inflation target as its own and will take actions to help expand UK domestic capacity in shortage areas where price pressures are most evident. The Bank created too much money for too long last year which helped fuel the inflation. They have now stopped this which will gradually assist in the process of getting inflation back down to more realistic levels. Inflation of 6-8% is corrosive and unhelpful to economic activity and prosperity. The UK needs to tackle more of its bottlenecks and understand the years of relying on cheap imports will no longer always be possible, as we see in the case of energy and Russian goods.
March 21, 2022
“What should the March statement say?”
“We will stop preparing the UK for global government”.
March 21, 2022
+ a great many
Hear, hear!!š¤
I bet they would not dare though!
March 21, 2022
Quite, but what will come before the plebs are so weakened, and democracy eliminated, to allow the elites to select those of us who can remain as slaves. Biden, a weak old man is making another trip to Europe this week, and we know how he loves the EU and wants to make it a strong partner. Trouble ahead for freedom.
March 21, 2022
Peter. Biden is a hypocrit. He says every country has a right to their own destiny and to be sovereign without outside interference then makes life difficult for us regarding Brexit.
March 25, 2022
What has Biden done to āmake life difficult for us regarding Brexitā?
March 21, 2022
All so very grim.
ID cards still hanging over us.
A fifth jab and chickens imprisoned as per plan to get rid of livestock.
Freedom and joy will become distant memories.
March 24, 2022
The mobile phone, and employers asserting a right to contact staff 24/7/52 are what have destroyed freedom and joy for most people who feel that.
March 21, 2022
An Australian MP put a motion to their Parliament disowning the WEF and it was voted down by a large majority. It would be interesting to see how such a vote went here, a great way of smoking out the fellow travellers who are hiding under the radar.
March 21, 2022
Yes. A very good idea.
The āplacements/infiltrators ā which the founder of WEF admitted to would find it a bit difficult.
It only recently occurred to me that the āYoung Global Leadersā were trained in deception. They pretended to be liberals.
March 21, 2022
No financial help to Ukraine as Zelensky bans opposition parties under martial law. Why would we help someone like him?
March 21, 2022
+1 then scrap net zero and have the size of government easy to do as most of it does more harm than good. Then ensure no state sector workers get pensions of more than the pension pot cap of Ā£1070K about Ā£30K index linked at age 65
March 21, 2022
Andrea Leadsom today in the telegraph:-
āMy five ideas for solving the energy crisis
The next six months will be critical for bolstering our strategy on this issue. Hereās how we could start.ā
If you read it you will see she knows nothing about the topic whatsoever yet wants to display this in a national newspaper. Please go and study some physics and energy engineering – was it politics you studied? The current energy policy is insane politically too.
My x? point plan – get fracking, drilling, mining, more r&d into fusion/nuclear, batteries, fuel cells and synthetic fuels, cull all the subsidies for renewables and EVs, stop idiotically importing wood to burn at Drax, stop destroying coal fired power station, stop exaggerating hugely about the dangers of a little more CO2 – plant tree and crop foodā¦
March 21, 2022
+ many here too.
March 21, 2022
Denise
Hear, hear! But they wonāt declare stopping preparing the country for global governmentā¦ but what JR says, is a start!
March 21, 2022
+1
March 21, 2022
The imaginary things which feed your fear grow ever more fanciful.
However, preparations should indeed be made, by all financial entities and institutions, public and private, for a war-related major event or events, which could disrupt their systems and information, customer records etc.
That is, at the very least, diversity storage in hard form, off-line in multiple secure locations, of all necessary data, such that national grid failure or server destruction did not lead to irretrievable loss of this and the ensuing collapse of the economy and money system.
I’d hope that such rules already exist, but I doubt it somehow.
The contingencies that are needed in all areas are suddenly becoming apparent.
March 21, 2022
Sorry to deflate you NHL, but disaster recovery plans have been part of a normal company’s processes for the last 20 years.
March 21, 2022
+1 100%
March 21, 2022
Brilliant Denise! I wonder if there are any other things that no one anywhere has ever suggested which you would like the March statement to rule out? Free cake for all rabbits maybe, or a unicorn for every child?
March 21, 2022
Gary. Your post has no link to that of Denise.
March 21, 2022
Classic trolling Gary.
Childish nonsense.
March 21, 2022
Nice idea, but fact chance — Davos disciples run everything now.
March 21, 2022
Not quite.That is what the Ukraine war is really about-Russia and China(and their friends) have spoilt the globalist party.
Interesting hearing Pakistan’s Imran Khan praising India in the past day or two for it’s independence of action in buying Russian oil.Just as three weeks ago,when announcing his wheat and gas deals with Russia,he launching a scathing attack on the US,saying that in all the time Pakistan had been a client of the US it experienced nothing but death,destruction and economic stagnation;now,with Chinese investment and access to Russian resources,he is looking forward to being able to lift more of his people out of poverty.His response to the criticism of the Russian deals:-
“What are we,slaves?”
More of the world is going to be saying the same.
March 22, 2022
Tripe – that war is about a brutal dictator – to whom life is less than cheap but worthless – wanting to extend his empire of terror, as such types always do.
March 21, 2022
Tony Blair from his article in the Daily Mail,17/3/22:
“I have visited Ukraine at least once a year since 2007 and my Institute for Global Change has a long-standing project there.”
March 21, 2022
Denise,
Indeed. Not going to happen though.
Much discussion of what the government should do for its citizens, or the nation state is just hot air.
March 21, 2022
“We will leave the World Health Organisation immediately and no longer make vast contributions to it.”
March 21, 2022
Good morning.
Well they shpudl be after all the rises. Troble is, the government will see that is extra spending money and just waste it, as usual.
And what about local government ? As I mentioned yesterday, whilst my Council Tax bill is raised inline with the 2% target, the Mayor of London has decided he needs to raise his part fourfold. This on top of a 4.5% increase last year and extra money given to him from central government. And, he raised the Congestion Charge as well. Yet this government persists with this failed Blairite idea. Why ? I demand that there be a cap on ALL local government rises and that they be forced to make economies elsewhere. We are just rewarding failure.
We don’t need tinkering at the edges, we need root and branch reform.
March 21, 2022
Indeed. HMG have outsourced tax rises to local government trying to shift the blame. So inefficient Councils with massive unreformed pension liabilities plus spendthrift police commissioners etc do what they want and we suffer.
In other news I see they are trying to pushback the political fallout about NI increases by suggesting mitigation for the lower paid.
Once again no acknowledgement that it is the wealth creators who pay through the nose.
March 21, 2022
+1 Sunak has more forced more tax rises in two years than Gordon Brown in 12 years!!
Ā£2.1 trillion debt, structural deficit never balanced after 12 years in office but abandoned! Twice the amount of debt compared to Labour.
Should we talk about welfare claimants and nationality or would it be banned? Ā£5 million a day for foreign criminals to be housed in 4 star hotels. Our taxes pay for it. Javid last week said it was āourā moral duty to provide free health service to Ukrainians!
He does not speak for me or how I wish my taxes to be used. I want them vaccinated and have passports before coming here.
If Javid can sack 40,000 hard working care home staff he should have a moral duty to refuse Ukrainians access to our country or health service after so many died, with so many more expected to die through His backlog of waiting lists. Where is his loyalty to UK citizens!! Why should indigenous people die because of his priority for foreigners to come first!!
Please explain your govt. weird policy JR.
LL, think about that for a moment
March 21, 2022
+1 – but taxes up one year might get more tax revenue initially but then tax payers sensibly adjust their behaviour and/or their tax arrangements, they leave the country, invest elsewhere, work less hard, pay for more tax avoidance advice, invest less (they after all have less to invest and far less incentives to invest in the UK). So next year you probably get less tax revenue. Tax rate increases from the currently absurdly high levels (nearly 50% of GDP about double what they should be) will raise less tax & not more in the end Sunak.
March 21, 2022
LL,
Sunak has raised more taxes in two years than Gordon Brown in 12 years.
March 21, 2022
JR, you asked therefore:
Sunak has raised taxes more in two years than Brown did in ten years! Same for debt, deficit and borrowing. Bearing in mind the crash that the consocialists blamed on Labour! Now if we accept his word that he is a low tax Tory what does a high one look like!
Cut taxes across the board.
Freeze council tax
No one I public sector to earn more than Ā£150,000
Change employment laws to make it easier to sack civil servants, they used to be exempt from equality crap laws as did the police and armed services. Bring the old rules back. Change minimum wage and employment laws.
Get rid of climate change act.
Get rid of EU regulations and red tape, start by scrapping N.Ireland protocol. A nonsense to moan at Russia when EU doing exactly the same to UK without a shot being fired.
Scrap BBC govt. propaganda unit.
Scrap green subsidies on energy bills.
Cut corporate tax.
Scrap VAT.
Cut fuel duty and scrap VAT on fuel.
Tax incentives to drill for oil, gas and frack.
Mine for our own coal stop imports from Russia.
Cut welfare and make it pay to work.
Get rid of mobility cars and provide standard cheap ones not BMWs and Audis FFS
Provide support for energy intensive industries like chemicals, glass, steel, porcelain.
Provide support for farmers and producers to get rid of any CAP from EU.
Impose tax on Irish agri products.
Cut foreign aid to the bone for humanitarian causes only not targets to piss away my taxes around the world to corrupt govts including the Ukraine.
Stop health tourism.
NHS- root and branch reform to provide value for money.
Get rid of left wing socialism throughout public services.
I would like the truth from your party and govt. for a change. If possible get the cabinet to resign en masse or sack them they are not fit for purpose.
Moreover, I would like a conservative govt. that upheld its vision, mission and values. Johnson needs to be forced out we cannot afford his socialist values on spend and waste, his lack of morals both privately and professionally- they appear intertwined. He says anything to please then lies like a naughty teenager.
March 21, 2022
@Mark B
Yep … I believe that local authority finances are a bit of a mess, although it seems they might be being looked at.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8431/
For a while, my concern has been that local authorities extract large sums of money from us, and spend it … and that the councillors seem to have little or no financial qualifications or training, and have limited/inadequate support from their minions. As one example, my own small local authority seems to have got involved in a property refurbishment which is over four years late and Ā£30m+ over budget. The local electorate seem largely apathetic. The % turnout at local elections is even more abysmal that at general elections. So … I agree with you …. “We donāt need tinkering at the edges, we need root and branch reform.”
March 21, 2022
A very high proportion is spent on gold plated pension provision for usually over paid local authority āworkersā many of who are āworkingā from home or have retired or are often doing nothing useful or even doing positive damage very often. Blocking roads for example.
March 21, 2022
Some Councils suffered massive losses with Iceland investments we were told they’d recoup Ā£1m of them I wonder if they did? If they did then the extra half a million they took out of the rates each year to prop up their pensions should be refunded to the ratepayers!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics 26052949#:~:text=The%20%22lion%27s%20share%22%20of%20the,in%202008%20would%20be%20returned. 2014
March 21, 2022
Read how many consultants local authorities use at our expense. Why? If they were as good as their salaries why do they need so many consultants?
Why do we still have mayors? It is an expensive EU idea to add another layer of bureaucracy for nothing in return. Police commissioners are another waste of our taxes. why have the. Forced on us, the poor turn for voting shows no one still wants them!!
Environment Agency and local authority taxing us twice for doing the same role!! EA provides no use to the taxpayer whatsoever. Look at their budget, a fraction for flood infrastructure projects the majority for their salaries!
March 22, 2022
Er, “Test and Trace”.
March 21, 2022
You’re tinkering at the edges, messing around with marginal rates of tax here and there. Meaningless, headline grabbing, party promoting twaddle
John and his party’s leaders appear to think the private sector exists purely to fund the largesse and interests of Labour’s Socialist client State. Well, with Tory politicians like that all hope is surely gone
The British State has become a vested interest and it is using debt backed by private guarantor and money debasement to promote itself
It’s all downhill, for this Tory party has dragged us all into Labour’s world of fiscal and moral debasement and they’ve exposed us all to harm as an act of Democratic Party and left wing appeasement, refusal to reform
March 21, 2022
Won’t cutting 5 % off energy bills prove difficult when government will have to seek permission from the EU to do this in NI?
March 21, 2022
This is only John dreaming. Sunak will do none of the things John proposed as he is a profligate lib dumb really.
He will probably give us a loan of our own money, what he certainly won’t (can’t) do is cut VAT on fuel or insulation products because he’s not allowed under EU rules.
He won’t turn off the funds for the channel invasion because that’s all part of the great reset.
Inother words he will do very little as these soaring fuel prices are a step to net zero.
March 21, 2022
Ian Wragg : “In other words he will do very little as these soaring fuel prices are a step to net zero.”
Absolutely correct and it is dishonest of the Government and the BBC to not admit it.
March 21, 2022
Just do it. Ignore this attempt by the EU plus a government under outside coercion to impose foreign rule on our country.
March 21, 2022
Petrol and diesel is taxed at 150% over refinery price.
5% will make eff all difference to that anyway.
EVs only work economically because they are heavily subsidised and favoured and ICEs are grossly penalised and restricted.
It is a ruse.
If everyone had an electric car by tomorrow they’d introduced gargantuan taxes and the cycle lanes and planters would remain in place. This has NOTHING to do with emissions.
March 21, 2022
What EV specific heavy subsidy?
the new Kia and Hyundai models do not get an EV grant and public chargers carry 20% VAT, not the 5% of domestic VAT.
Granted there is zero road tax, but that is also true for the Ford Fiesta 1.0 Ecoboost and Toyota Yaris 1.5 hybrid.
March 21, 2022
.. not the 5% VAT on domestic electricity.
March 22, 2022
Point taken. Capped at Ā£32 k and grant reduced from Ā£2500 to Ā£1500.
March 22, 2022
you are right about the rest – the governing classes do not believe they are here for our benefit – we are an irritation and hinderance to them.
March 21, 2022
What should the March statement say?
āWeāve made a pigās ear of everything. Immigration is uncontrolled. Our borders are uncontrolled and unpatrolled. Inflation is out of control. Imports are out of control. Energy prices are out of control. Taxation is out of control. The NHS is out of control with another 12 diversity managers being recruited at a cost of Ā£660k plus Employerās NI, flash offices, support staff, IT support etc. in short, we are out of control and out of ideas. All we can come up with is tax you more, spend it without costings or budgets and hope.ā
Thatās about it.
March 21, 2022
Good post Mike.
March 21, 2022
+1
You are so right.
And we are supporting a war that is all about borders and their importance and flags and nationhood and patriotism and sovereigntyā¦and invasion.
How odd that Putin seems to be achieving that which he was said to fear. A unified and resolute EU!
March 21, 2022
That just about sums it up ! Thanks for that.
March 21, 2022
+1
The object of the exercise is indeed control… starting with energy, food & defence security.
Maslov’s physiological & safety needs… why don’t governments get it?
March 21, 2022
Hmm, my comment disappeared when I clicked Post Comment. Oh well, it was a pointless diatribe. Nothing changes.
March 21, 2022
Sometimes it comes back again later once moderated, depends on the browser used and if you have ticked the box to save your details.
Any Chancellor (or person) who thinks that taxing people then wasting half in collection and admin. costs and then giving the rest back to some (clearly rather wealthier) people/taxpayers to fund 50% of their restaurant bills is a sensible plan for the economy must surely be a grade one moron and economic ignoramus as we have come to expect of most PPE Oxon. graduates and politicians. He know seems to want to do the same on energy. Tax people to death waste most in collection and admin. then ālendā some back so they can pay some of their energy bills.
How about allowing commuting to work costs to be tax deductible Sunak? They clearly are a cost of employment. MPs, after all, get their commuting costs to parliament paid in full 100% and tax free on their expenses (plus subsidised restaurants). But other worker do not even get 20% of them back! Are we not āall in it togetherā or was that a sick politicianās (Osborne?) joke? Often commuting costs take pay to well below the minimum wage especially with the current huge inflation in these costs.
March 21, 2022
This especially as the government are effectively forcing people to switch their old cars to far more expensive and inferior electric ones. Thus increasing cost per mile by about 5 times and decreasing the tax take too.
March 21, 2022
Yes indeed
March 22, 2022
Why should commuting costs be tax deductable?
Commuting costs are not a cost of employment rather the individuals choice of where they live and where they work.
Why should everyone else pay for your choice to live far from work.
March 22, 2022
Clearly commuting costs are a cost “wholly and exclusively” incurred in order to do the job). One cannot move very easily (huge stamp duty and other cost of moving often) also your partner or children might work a similar distance in the another direction. Often commuting costs take peoples net wages down to below minimum wage too. So often not worth working if these are high.
March 24, 2022
According to Statista the average car commute distance per person per year was 782 miles.
Assuming 48 working weeks of 5 days that is an average commute of 3.25 car miles per day per person. BTW, from Statista, those commuting far in excess of that average were predominantly company car drivers, so they were already subsidised by the company and their customers.
Anyway those 3.25 miles use about 1kWh, say 30p, per day in an EV. One can’t even buy a cup of tea for that, .
London may be more expensive with rail etc but a London centric perspective is not representative of the bulk of UK population and rarely helpful .. also there is a thing called “London Weighting” ..
PS does this mean you are going to stop whining about subsidies other groups might or might not get that you don’t?
March 22, 2022
dixie, +1
LL, if you want to change job often, why do you not rent near your place of work? Isnāt it what you were advocating for job mobility? Or is that something you (as a landlord) advocate for others but would not apply to your good self?
Do I detect some lack of consistency here?
March 21, 2022
+1
Just realised! The same happened to me.
I made a jokey ( probably very stupid but nice) reply to MarkB and it disappeared.
I thought it might be JRās new draconian censorship methodology as handed down from on high!
March 21, 2022
Not sure what you’re concerned about, Mike and EH. I’ve not really had any trouble with comments expressing my opinions not being published on this site. The only ones moderated out occasionally were purely factual.
March 21, 2022
Ah, Sir J., if only what you write would be what Sunak says…
Instead it will be more ‘Net Zero’ La-la land verbiage, mixed in with a bit of ‘we don’t want to admit that circumstances have changed but we would lose face by changing’.
March 21, 2022
Sir John ….. it’s the hope that kills you.
This is a Socialist Government. All they know how to do is tax, borrow, print and squander.
March 21, 2022
Yes and the only people they are fooling is themselves. Starmer needs to do nothing. He is being given what Blairite labour wants.
March 21, 2022
+1 – tax, borrow, print and squander – but actually it is every worse still – the tax, borrow, print and squander is combined with the net zero (expensive unreliable energy) lunacy and endless red tape to render the private sector far less efficient as well. The thought of a Labour/SNP government in about two years is surely enough to deter most investment.
March 21, 2022
indeed the whole British political class have been overtaken by woke lefty fake green nonsense.
politics in this country is badly broken.
March 21, 2022
If this government wants to be actually doing something really constructive and effective just deal with the elephant in the room. Waste, their and their departments waste. All the grandiose plans just continually add to its total as it is and never has been managed let alone addressed. The only people paying the price for failure is the taxpayers.
March 21, 2022
Lest anyone argue about government waste, just look at the performance of DVLA. Massively underperforming and no one it seems in government with either the wit or the levers to do anything about it.
March 21, 2022
The Chancellor need to stop wasting so much money, they do it everywhere you look. Also cut the size of government in half, scrap net zero, cut and simplify taxes and have a huge bonfire of red tape. A good start would be to reverse all the vast tax increase Socialist Sunak has made since he become Chancellor. These are Corp Tax a 25% increase in it, NI 2.5% (a 10% increase), Entrepreneurs relief a 90% cut, frozen allowances for income tax, CGT, IHT, the scrapping on most red diesel (a 60% tax)…
It would also be good if Sunak stopped pretending he was a Conservative Chancellor & in favour of lower taxes. He is just another tax, borrow and piss down the drain Socialist chancellor pretending not to be. It fools no one sensible. The only tax decreases we will get from this deluded socialist Chancellor are ones (or just promises of ones) given before the next election (Prob. in just over two years May 2024)- to be reversed the day after by the Conservative or Labour/SNP!
Doubtless they will still be claiming they are in favour of tax cuts (at heart) but never in reality.
March 21, 2022
Once again you show us what we could have and ought to have and thought we might get from the Conservatives. So a much brighter future is possible if only Sunak et al were gone.
March 21, 2022
Who cares? Most of us donāt vote for the pensioners who govern our country. They have made an absolute dogās breakfast of everything.
It is embarrassing shambles of a government which exists only to work in the interests of the Russian oligarchs who fund and the pensioners who vote for it.
We know what ever he does will screw over everybody else anyway.
March 21, 2022
Andy, can the Conservative Party sue you for making unsubstantiated claims that ‘Russian oligarchs fund this government’? We know you’ve got lots of money you keep telling us every day, perhaps they could top up some of the shortfalls with your help.
March 22, 2022
a-tracy, you might also want to read on chathamhouse.org āThe UKās kleptocracy problemā, Research paper, Russia and Eurasia programme, Decā2021, 60 pp.
March 21, 2022
You are being ridiculous young Andy.
The average age of Boris’s cabinet is 48.
Not much younger than you.
PS
Labour is 50
March 21, 2022
There ought to be a limit on how much tax we pay. Making every third person in the public sector redundant and free to pursue productive work would fix the problem. An across the board reduction of 5% per year in annual public sector budgets would also assist. MPās could set an example by foregoing any salary increases for an entire parliamentary term as a starter.
March 21, 2022
James1,
Cameron was going to cut the number of MPs, thenā¦.. nothing happened. As is the con socialist way. Look at the number and cost of lords against what they achieve. Blaire has made it a useless house. Consocialists have not changed anything. Back to the old ways of cover up and not disclose anything.
March 21, 2022
Interest rate remedies re inflation seem dead in the water. Your government has thrown egregious amounts of money at the economy, partly not having any choice but partly as spendthrift and wasteful as your leader so inflation was inevitable and once again politicians who contributed to the problem rely on amnesia and deny it.
Taking demand out through tax increases is a classic antidote to inflation as of course, and the one I would prefer is to reduce/make more efficient government spending. Unfortunately the latter will result in accusations of austerity so less politically acceptable.
Instead we will get the increases spun as short term with the Chancellor magically producing cuts before the next election like a rabbit out of a hat, claiming that the medicine worked.
March 21, 2022
We mustnāt forget how much our energy policy failure has contributed to our increased bills.
March 21, 2022
Measures to improve national food and energy security. These should include financial incentives, tax reductions, removal of legal and regulatory constraints to promote domestic production and the restoration of lost storage capacity and the addition of new storage capacity.
March 21, 2022
‘The government will delay the increase in VAT for the Hospitality Sector, until energy prices have returned to normal – and even then it will study the Laffer Curve before going ahead with an increase. As an economy measure, no ministers, spads or civil servants, will attend the WEF in Davos this May. We are accountable to voters – not to techigarchs.’
March 21, 2022
+1 S _W. As to Davos, no civil servants either.
March 21, 2022
They won’t admit to being wrong on just about everything so little that you say will happen.
March 21, 2022
The March statement will restate government spending over the five(?) year period taking account of increased inflation. Hopefully hard choices will have been made and we will see some real terms cuts in spending but I doubt it.
The tax take will have increased greatly due to inflation. I would like a full scale review of how much tax is needed give the new spending plans. I would then like to see the difference given back to us in increased tax thresholds, slashing duties, targeted reduction of VAT and a cancellation of the NI rise.
I want to see a recognition that increased help for the poor through benefits increases the living costs of everyone else so I want assistance to be in duty and VAT costs not through cash handouts.
I want a detailed breakdown of how much of largesse to refugees, whether they come via dinghy or are invited from Ukraine of Afghanistan is costing us. I would like to see lottery funding diverted to these costs rather than supporting sportspeople.
Finally I would like to see stamp duty increased on home purchases – I would like to see the money supply narrowed and I would like interest rates to rise to stem the silly increase in prices of houses and feeds through to increased living costs for most people.
March 21, 2022
I would like an acknowledgement that our net -zero energy policy not only costs us more but also increases carbon generation globally. It is pointless except to outsource our production.
March 21, 2022
Why not simply stop the HS2 madness and pump the otherwise wasted billions into something more essential…..like maybe easing the current crisis.
March 21, 2022
Year to date receipts are up Ā£93 billion (14%) on last year. See “Table” in the following.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2feconomy%2fgovernmentpublicsectorandtaxes%2fpublicsectorfinance%2fdatasets%2fappendixdpublicsectorcurrentreceipts%2fcurrent/datdataset4appendixdfinal.xls
March 21, 2022
All this QE has converted UK Gilt securities back into the “reserves” that bought them originally. Such that the Monetary Base (MB = coins + pound notes + reserves) are now over Ā£1,060 billion. That means the velocity of circulation (VoC) of MB has dropped to 2.05. Worse still, M1 (MB + all forms of current accounts) VoC has dropped to 0.92. That means those Pound Sterling aren’t even circulating once a year in the economy. The private sector is hoarding the government’s money like there is no tomorrow. Let’s hope we all don’t get pissed out of our brains and go on a mega spending spree in a heavily constrained supply side. š
March 21, 2022
#depitebrexit
March 21, 2022
Peter 2
Just more nonsense
March 22, 2022
Why do you think it is nonsense Billy?
Everything you post is linked to Brexit.
It is either some negative thing you try to spin as being the result of Brexit or if it is a positive thing it is said to be “despite Brexit”
In this example, acorn, who is pro EU like you, is showing us that tax receipts are considerably up.
The predictions by pro EU types like you, was that brexit would bring economic recession would lead to low growth and higher unemployment.
Hence my little ironic post.
March 22, 2022
Peter 2
It’s not my fault you are unable to see we would much better without Brexit and I am sorry for you you are unable to understand it
March 23, 2022
You need to accept the UK has left the EU.
You need to look at the good economic figures that we currently have in the UK and compare them to the ones you predicted would happen after we dared to vote to leave.
All your Project Fear predictions have failed to come true.
March 21, 2022
Perhaps the first thing would be for the Treasury to admit that their models and forecasts were on a par for accuracy with those presented to us over Covid.
That would be a step in the right direction.
The thing they should have realised by now is that it is wasteful excessive spending by the government that has created our national debt, and that it should be up to the Treasury to resolve without penalising those already suffering from record high taxes. BUT HEY, that’s just me trying to bring a romantic fairy tale to life.
What we will get is more of the same. With new taxes being invented on a regular basis, the Tories have taken away the trophy from labour on being the high tax party.
Never mind the NI and energy taxes, we also face new taxes in the form of: the wrapper tax, plastic bag levy, and online sales tax, to add to the burden.
None of these taxes are necessary — WE are being deliberately impoverished for the sake of the government’s own bogus fairy tale.
March 21, 2022
…….Inflation of 6-8% is corrosive and unhelpful to economic activity and prosperity…….
It’s more than unhelpful to a government that wants to be re-elected – it’s terminal. Get a grip on energy for a start.
March 21, 2022
Presumably what Sunak will say is that he’s a committed tax cutter. That will be at the end, after he’s announced loads of tax rises.
March 21, 2022
It should say that tax, employers and employees national insurance, will be raised to at least as much as locals for everyone here on a work visa.
It should say that tax allowances will be made pro rata to the proportion of the tax year that individual has a work visa to legally work here.
It should say that occupations where skills are already in massive over supply, or where large immigrant influxes are discouraging locals from training due to swamping the market, will have the numbers of visas issued significantly restricted.
It should say that anyone arriving here on dinghy’s gets no state support until and unless every native Brit homeless person is living somewhere warm and safe.
It should say that for every immigrant from Hong Kong, Ukraine, and so many more, we allow into the country the school and healthcare capacity will be increased with demonstrable proper planning of same.
I wont hold my breath.
March 21, 2022
Whatever does the economy matter anyway.
Weāve absolutely had it.
Apparently, May, in rushing through the Climate Act had it enshrined in law ( I didnāt realise).
So as Johnson said recently ā¦we can do nothing about it.
And leftists are taking councils etc to court for non compliance.
Presumably the law could be changedā¦they do it when it suitsā¦but whereās the political will in this case?
Where is the back bench urging to change the law on this and channel shenanigans?
March 21, 2022
Everhopeful
With an 80 seat majority, of.course the law can be changed! But it will not, demonstrating that Johnson is just as appalling as the reprehensible May. IMO neither have made any effort to act in the interests of our country, so who do they serve, if not us.
March 21, 2022
I await what the Chancellor actually does and his reasoning behind his decisions.
I have not forgotten that Boris has promised a comprehensive and coherent fuel policy for the UK. Is he leaving it to Rishi or can we expect it later. Rhetorical statements and speaches have their place, but now is the time for Plan A. It has to make logical sense and to be achievable quickly.
March 21, 2022
The March Statement should reaffirm the obligations and principal of the brexit referendum and the 2019 manifesto tax pledges and commitments
March 21, 2022
What it will say is that its a tax cutting government, determined to make the public sector more efficient and better value… What it will actually deliver, is like the chancellors track record… exactly the opposite.
March 21, 2022
How fortunate we are in having a Tory chancellor! Not for him, astronomically high taxes! Not for him the miles of EU red tape! Not for him the insane Socialist idea of price caps that make viable companies go bust!
Oh. wait…
March 21, 2022
It turns out that ‘cheap’ imports weren’t so cheap after all.
A) They made us hugely dependent on states which wish us harm and empowered them
B) They created the scope for Big Government welfarism “We are your benefactors”
C) They outsourced our mucky work to places where we have zero control over emissions
D) They infantalised our own population and made it weaker (just as planned)
This is all about Covid. Two years of not working and generous things like Sit at Home and Watch TV, Furlough Fraud and Eat out to Help Out to a population described at ‘D’ above had to be paid for somehow.
Andy will still blame Brexit for a fuel crisis which was caused by unready Greenism and the EU becoming Russia dependent whilst sneaking up to her border and stoking revolution in Ukraine alongside Biden and Son in 2014 – eventually leading to a war in Europe with 10 million displaced and God knows how many killed.
The EU promised us no more wars in *Europe*, NLH (not the EU) and in any case was designed by a Frenchman to prevent a unified Germany becoming a hungry and armed state and invading her neighbours yet again… oh dear ! Instead of weapons grade uranium being used in generators it is going to have to be used in the new Cold War in … erm… idle (hopefully) weapons ! Some in the hands of a military and (once more) hungry Germany.
How Lefties love their wars (none under Trump) and how they want Zero Covid but are willing to let people die of hypothermia imminently. These wierdos want us to mask up, lock down and KEEP SAFE for a disease with a 99.9% survival rate yet want us to take to the skies against Russia in a war that they provoked risking a conflict with a 99.9% kill rate.
Bizarre.
March 22, 2022
No longer anonymous
You really have to read some more to get a real understanding of European history
March 23, 2022
No facts, no counter argument, no actual reply.
You can do better Billy.
March 21, 2022
“What should the March statement on the economy say?”
Each Department will undertake to reduce in size and expenditure by 10% this year and the following four years, or until the state consumes no more than 40% of GDP.
Taxation will be reduced by 10%pa to allow the private sector to grow accordingly. The tax code will be shortened to no more than 50 pages.
All payments in respect of illegal immigrants will be suspended pending their removal to their countries of orrigen.
March 21, 2022
BOF
All that needs to be done is pass a law that everybody applying for asylum has to have certified documents as to who and where the come from. Failure to produce will result in deportation,no 4*
hotel and pocket money nothing just a trip back to France on the Eurostar. Leave them in the terminal ensuring no access back onto the train. Then there will be a stand off but at least it is on the French side of the channel. They could always let them out to try and get their money back from the smugglers.
March 21, 2022
“What should the statement say”
I am sorry for our Governments total and utter incompetence.
We got net Zero planning and timescales wrong,
We got illegal Immigration planning and control wrong
We have lost control of the cost of living.
We got power generation planning wrong.
We got self reliance of important base raw materials Like Coal, Gas, and Oil wrong,
We got Food planning wrong.
We did nothing about the inefficiency within the NHS.
We got the idea raising taxes wrong.
We should not have wasted so much of your money.
We are sorry you have had to find out the hard way, but we did not have a clue at the time, please vote for us again and we will try better next time !
March 21, 2022
…and sorry that my petrol price has gone up by another 2p again today
March 21, 2022
+1 Alan.
Although I suspect Johnson would lie to cover his tracks or blame Russia! Blame anyone but himself.
Kwertang previously even blamed the weather for his dire energy policy!
March 21, 2022
In reality, we are also defenceless.
March 21, 2022
alan jutson
Last sentence should read please accept our apologies as a token of good faith we will all resign en mass as we cannot justify our position in the government due to our continued documented incompetence.
March 21, 2022
” What should the March statement on the economy say? ”
Boris has declared Britain is now free from EU bureaucracy and unleashing Civil Service, NHS and BBC reforms to streamline and align with totally supporting the free enterprise spirit in every one of us!
Starting with Freeports, scrapping NI increases lowering Corporation tax and green taxes on energy, immediately start opening up the vast resources below ground to lessen our dependence on overseas.
Wishful thinking , sadly….
March 21, 2022
Firstly, that Net Zero will be cancelled because an expensive and intermittent supply of electricity using renewables with no technology existing to store electricity in large amounts cheaply will not only destroy the economy but together with the electrification of everything using sub-optimal products will be a huge security risk. Especially since important elements and minerals for electrification are controlled by hostile states.
Secondly, that the Government will reduce spending by tackling waste starting with unnecessary vanity EU projects such as HS2 and unnecessary employment in the NHS and all public sectors including the Civil Service and universities.
Thirdly, universities will fund university fees so those useless ādegreeā courses which turn out students who are unable to pay back their loans will cease to exist. Money instead will be given to courses and apprenticeships for useful trades.
Thirdly that the Government will introduce net zero immigration with the deportations of illegals to allow the taxpayer a respite from funding an unneeded increase in population in a country already with a high population density.
March 21, 2022
Original Richard
Gets my vote pal and some.
March 21, 2022
Perhaps he should take a look at the results of the South Australia election – and reflect on the dangers of a government tacking so far to the left that it lets the left outflank it, from the right.
March 21, 2022
My feeling is that the slow down has already started. The Treasury always seems to be behind the times.
March 21, 2022
Martin Lewis sums it up: the rises in energy, heating oil, water, Council tax, broadband and mobiles, food, national insurance were all in place before he said Ukraine (but he means the Russians waged war on their neighbour).
My Mum always told me if you’ve got nothing good to say keep your mouth shut.
March 21, 2022
“The one piece of bad news is inflation is also well above the Bank of Englandās 2% target, with prices surging further on the supply disruptions caused by the Russian war.”
Caused by the Russian war?
So nothing to do with the government’s debasing of the British pound then?
You learn something new every day.
March 21, 2022
Sir
“What should the March statement on the economy say?”
I am sure that we all have many, many thoughts. It is difficult to know where to start.
1. National Insurance is a tax on jobs (particularly employers NI) and its future should be considered. This will probably include a review of the rates of tax on income/profits.
2. Value Added Tax is a regressive tax in that the poorer in our society need to spend a greater proportion of their income on VATable items. The VAT rate is too high. However, for many items, there is no guarantee that businesses will pass on price reductions to customers…. althougb it would be good PR.
3. Go after the people who wrongly claimed covid support. This should prove profitable for the taxpayer and might restore some credibility in the Government.
3. Make proper use of our Brexit freedoms. The referendum was over 5 years ago wasn’t it ?
4. Aim to seriously reduce imports of food. This would mean better supporting our own farmers and fish industry
5. Aim to seriously reduce energy imports. For example, today’s friends may not be our friends tomorrow. This would mean immediately accessing our own offshore and onshore energy. Nuclear and renewable energy will hopefully help in the future … but our problem is NOW.
6. Reduce the costs of Government (local and central).
7. Charities visibly cost the taxpayer over Ā£5bn per annum. The whole system needs looking at.
8. Give Scotland its referendum. Either Holyrood or Westminster … not both. See 6 above.
9. Improve the resources of HMRC to go after tax avoiders and evaders. This should prove profitable for the taxpayer. See also 3 above.
10. Some state benefits are taxable and some are not. Some benefits are a gateway to other (mostly non taxable) benefits. The system seems unwieldy and a bit of a mess and overdue a review.
etc
etc.
March 21, 2022
Sir
With apologies. My list includes two items numbered 3 !!
March 21, 2022
The government should say the are going to address the council tax. Outlining
changes so its funded by the ability to pay rather than asking people to pay what they obviously can’t afford.
March 21, 2022
Stephen, these Councils have all had massive house-building programs over the past ten years. My Council received a directive from the 2012 LibDem/Tory government through the National Planning Policy Framework act to allow 24,000 + new builds by 2030. My town’s share was an extra 3500 – +11% of the total housing.
That is Ā£7m pa extra (at just Ā£2000 council tax per home and we know it is more than that in a high % of homes). Where has all that new money gone because we haven’t had new facilities or new schools (in fact schools have closed and ironically houses are being built on two of those old schools playing fields) now the one remaining High School is so oversubscribed it is causing problems I read about in the local news, the green garden waste service was cut off, new roads haven’t been built, old roads the council were warned wouldn’t cope with the extra traffic are in a ruin, with a curb that needs cutting off and widening and refilling the potholes that are now a problem – so many more school buses people can’t move in rush hour down that main lane out of town to where the jobs are. We are all paying more and getting less. They can’t even get cycle lanes and pavements built properly to the town centre by the builders creaming it in on all these new estates, the one decent walk way is potholed and full of rubbish left by a local community.
March 21, 2022
Sir John, supply disruptions began before what you call the ‘Russian war’. They were caused first by lockdowns, and then by the sanctions on world trade with Russia. There are signs the Europeans are beginning to realise the disastrous impact these sanctions are having on their economic prospects, and avoiding a complete break with Russia. Let us hope good sense starts to prevail eventually at Westminster too, and the disruptions will be manageable. Long-term, we are going to have to learn to live with a newly empowered Russia, just as we have learned to live with Covid. As the Russians take their economy out of the Washington-dominated world, and leave the impact of sanctions behind, ‘the West’ will have no more leverage over the Kremlin – other than for NATO to go to war. So far, Western leaders seem to understand that is not an option they can inflict on their home populations. One must hope that remains the case.
March 21, 2022
Right on the mark!
Have a read of Dr Michael Hudson’s 6/3/22 article on his website (michaelhudson.com):”The American Empire Self-destructs.”
If you’ve not heard of Hudson,he is the world’s greatest economic historian of debt-based financial systems,going back to the dawn of time-and has worked as policy adviser to both the US and Chinese governments.He knows the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the system,as laid out in his magnum opus :”Superimperialism-the economic strategy of the American Empire.”
(Another former US government adviser)Jim Rickards’ article for Zero Hedge “The Last Straw”(19/3/22) covers similar ground.
March 21, 2022
Off topic, this archived material about the “Freedom Agenda” pursued by George W Bush is of interest:
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/freedomagenda/
“President Bush supported the inspiring strides that Europe took toward a continent whole, free, and at peace. Over the past eight years, the United States supported nations from the Baltic to the Black Sea reach their goals of membership in NATO and the European Union. The Administration supported the emergence of democracies in Georgia and Ukraine through its support for civil society and democratic activists during the successful Rose Revolution in Georgia and Orange Revolution in Ukraine and continues to contribute to the strengthening of democracy in both countries. In the wake of Russia’s August 2008 invasion of Georgia, President Bush supported Georgia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and economic recovery, including a $1 billion economic and humanitarian support package.”
This connects with the recent article about the April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest mentioned here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/03/18/inflation-4/#comment-1307220
āā¦ US president George W. Bush was pressing his fellow Nato delegates to give Ukraine and Georgia Nato membership ā¦ The European end of the Nato equation (then led by Angela Merkel, Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy) pushed back ā¦ ”
Now we are engaged in a proxy war with Russia and millions of Ukrainians are displaced persons.
March 21, 2022
Yes, Denis, and the reason why Merkel, Brown and Sarkozy pushed back is surely that they knew corruption in Ukraine was off the scale and couldn’t be reconciled with EU or NATO membership. In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most corrupt nations in the world. Five years later their experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world (so a slight improvement there!). Last year, on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index Ukraine was ranked 122nd out of 180 countries. It was the second most corrupt in Europe.
And as of yesterday we see that’democratic’ Ukraine has now banned opposition political parties. No dissent tolerated.
March 21, 2022
Yes,a very obvious proxy war – in a desperate attempt to disrupt the Eurasian integration process which will likely put the Anglo-American model out of business.
NATO was already operating in Ukraine(bases(now mostly obliterated),trainers,etc)-it’s formal entry into that obsolete organization would have been just that-a formality.
Funnily enough the newish Georgian government,while not yet ready to jump back into Russia’s arms, has gone distinctly cold on most aspects of the west.Unless I’ve missed something in the past few days they don’t appear to have sanctioned Russia in any way
And I note that last year the plan to build a western-backed port on the Black Sea (at Batumi?)collapsed.Geography!Geography!Geography!
March 22, 2022
Yes, fear can influence actions quite markedly.
March 21, 2022
The UK has suffered a record period of excess mortality we’ve been told over the past two years not seen for 100 years. CMI now estimates that there have been around 116,900 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK between the start of the pandemic and 3 December 2021. Predominantly in the over 65’s. So what is the expected ongoing savings each year in pension payments, care home payments, home carers, PiP claims. Surely the budget amount for this purpose has gone down this year. Yet we are being told we need to pay more NI for social care.
March 21, 2022
We know that whatever Sunak says will be a LIE. He is the most deceitful Chancellor I have known – even worse than Brown, and that’s saying something! He keeps lying about wanting to cut taxes while actually putting them up. I don’t trust or believe a word he says. The man is a complete fraud. I despise him.
The best thing he could do would be to suspend (I would prefer ‘eliminate’, but that would be too radical to do in one go) all green taxes and levies. This would cut energy bills to individuals and to businesses, and would boost the economy.
Finally, as a postcript to your debate yesterday, surely an easy and uncontroversial policy would be to institute a system whereby NHS Trusts are compared, with the government selecting the metrics to compare them by. Get each one to produce a table showing how many operations have been completed per Ā£100,000 spent, for instance. The heads of the three worst performing Trusts should be sacked each year. I can’t think of any argument against this and it would create a genuine incentive to improve efficiency and value for money.
March 21, 2022
The Statement should say – Diversity brings its own productivity and economies so the public sector will not be spending any more money to advance it, we need no more diversity specialists, this discipline will revert to HR personnel with other responsibilities. We will let the market decide not force it.
Could also do the same with renewables and about as likely to happen.
March 21, 2022
I see the Iranian woman who we paid Ā£400 million to release thinks we should have paid the money six years ago. How many more prisoners would have been taken if we had done that?
Needs of the many, even if she as innocent which given her outspokenness today is further in doubt.
March 22, 2022
I didn’t much like her tone, yesterday. I would suggest that the British government stops handing out passports to citizens of countries that have no rule of law (e.g. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea). Doing so just tags the holder as a potential pressure-point on the British government. Would Iran have acted as it did if the lady hadn’t been a ‘dual-national’? Possibly not. Let me go further and suggest that dual-nationality isn’t something we should tolerate. That said, I’m pleased that she is now safe and back with her family.
March 21, 2022
And what should certain MPs do in a vote if they do not agree with what is put before them and which opposes what they believe in?
Vote against of course, but they won’t because they’ll find some limp excuse to support the leadership on the grounds there is something nice in the bigger picture they must vote for and of course for party unity and survival.
March 21, 2022
1984 has arrived and you can’t just blame the government its the tory party
”New law changes will force all new buildings to have an electric car charger, according to the Department for Transport, with less than three months before the new rule comes into effect.”
March 21, 2022
Has our growth exceeded inflation? If so why do we need a net negative interest rates?
What legal controls do we have to stop incompetent governments squandering the value of the pound to further aims which do not appear in any manifestos? Lets face it voting does not work.