I am glad the PM is going to sharpen up his government and set out aims with targets so he can be judged on outturns. I assume he will keep the main target which drove the election strategy, which I have always welcomed. That is to go for faster growth, to make the U.K. sustainably the fastest growing G 7 country.
He should learn from his first few months. He has spent far too much time, political capital and public money on travelling to sort out the alleged concerns of other countries. PMs need to tell the Foreign Office that the U.K. comes first, and that the Foreign Secretary can handle much of travelling. With a tight budget giving lots of money to Mauritius and giving Chagos away is a bad idea. Being one of only 4 of the G20 leaders at COP 29 was also doubtless an expensive trip, agreeing to treble U.K. contributions to emerging economies by 2035. Seeking to lead Western responses to Ukraine without backing a Trump peace initiative runs the risk of helping split the European and US responses to a crucial war.
Seeking a better relationship with the EU will not unlock extra growth. We grew slowly this century in the EU. Now we are out we have a Free Trade deal and our exports are up since 2016. The EU is mainly a source of imports which far exceed exports. More imports reduces National output and income, making  us ever more dependent on energy imports from Europe is an especially damaging anti growth policy.
In future pieces I will look at other policy changes needed to hit the demanding growth target. Today the message is simple. Spend more time on domestic problems, PM. Do not keep on making concessions to foreign countries.They just think you are weak and will ask for more. They cannot vote for you.
December 2, 2024
A Government comprising Trotskyites (Starmer), Communists (Reeves) and sundry socialists who hate Britain will never put the UK first. They will of course preserve their own comfortable positions, which is what socialist parties always do. Citizens will be favoured, too, but only if they subscribe to the Party’s socialism.
December 2, 2024
Yes, if I might elucidate. Socialists talk of growth meaning Public Sector expansion, NOT private sector. As we all know, it is the private sector that pays the bills. So when Starmer says he is ‘Growth focused’, he means more government jobs and more government spending. Hey Presto- Growth!
Starmer will spend us into economic depression, and not know what went wrong.
December 2, 2024
PS, watch the price of French government bonds this week. There’s a real world lesson for Starmer and Reeves.
December 2, 2024
Correct. They are International Socialists; they are not concerned with the interests of the British people.
December 2, 2024
@Peter Gardner +1 – succinctly and well put thankyou
December 2, 2024
Does anyone really believe this WEF controlled government is capable of changing. The first few months have been a hammer blow against the British people
Yesterday his minister said he expects 350,000 to be the immigration norm although there is no timetable to achieve this
This will be another Milibrain stone tablet moment full of vacuous promises which he has no intention of keeping.
Crayons has modified her 1.5 million houses over 5 years to 10 years.
They are a joke.
December 2, 2024
Talking of a government incapable of changing,the Georgian president -a western stooge appointee-is refusing to stand down despite her term ending and her being at loggerheads with the newly elected anti-EU government.
It’s catching-Zelensky has started a trend!
December 2, 2024
Good morning.
This PM’s only one truthful statement is, that he will do the bad things first. Not because that is what needs to be done, but because he hopes by the time of the next GE most people would have forgotten and moved on. If he believes that, then he is a fool.
Those who refuse to learn the lessons from history are doomed to repeat them. “Grass roots of recovery” anyone ?
December 2, 2024
@Mark B – by the next election the feeling is so much socialist ideology will be embedded, it would be impossible to roll anything back. Don’t forget we are still living in Blair’s new hell and all those that followed him kept on track, even the so-called but as it turns out faux Tories reduced to become Conservative and stayed on the WEF Socialist track. Now a generation on we have a new generation of voters, that have embraced the entitlement that Socialism said they could have without contribution. Klaus Schwab, the dictator of UK and previous Government policy and who as Starmers boss, that he says he refers to before Parliament are nearly there they have almost(not quite) completed his orders.
December 2, 2024
I agree with you Mark, but I think you will be surprised how many people do have a short memory.
With regards to Travel and Aid.
Every Prime Minister for decades, with the exception perhaps of Truss, has fallen into the trap of spending more and more of our borrowed money abroad when meeting with other heads of State, and most of it just seems to vanish, with no benefit to us, or the people of the other Nations involved.
Common sense and reality seems to go out of the window when so many leaders get together, all trying to outdo the others and to look good with taxpayers money.
December 2, 2024
@Berkshire Alan +1, That’s the bit they don’t get steal Taxpayers money then borrow some more and send it abroad, is not causing a UK economy to happen – it is diminishing the Country’s wealth, its ability to respond to the changes being caused by others in the World. A quarter of a Century, one complete generation, has seen the future of a Nation thrown away for nothing more than the personal ego of a handful of protected individuals.
December 2, 2024
Actually it is not good politics to publicly set out aims with targets which one might miss just because one could then be judged on outturns in which case one might look as silly or incompetent as Rishi Sunak. There is nothing wrong with having targets (so long as they are potentially achievable targets) but politically speaking they should be private rather than public targets. So decades ago I argued when I was a Councillor at the group meeting of the controlling Conservative group about publicising Council housing repair targets/promises (so it seems I could have been a better Prime Minister than Sunak!). My advice was not taken (with only one other Councillor speaking up to support my point at the group meeting) with the Leader commenting (privately rather than publicly) that we need not bother about five years time when the promises ought to have been fulfilled – I expect he was in practice correct in terms of a mere Council but that would not be sensible in terms of public promises made by government for fulfilment before the next general election,
December 2, 2024
âThat is to go for faster growth, to make the U.K. sustainably the fastest growing G 7 country.â
Everything Labour, Reeves and Miliband have done so far is hugely anti-growth – vast tax NI increases, net zero lunacy, more employment red tape. rip off energy, open door low skilled immigration, IHT changes, Non Dom attacks, VAT on school feesâŠ
December 2, 2024
Also:- High street retailers have suffered their worst slump in sales since Covid, as fears over the economy hammer demand among shoppers. Sales in November were down 5.8pc year-on-year, according to a new report from accountancy giant BDO, with customers spending less both online and in stores.
Is it any wonder when they are taxed to death and confidence is so very low? Plus they are suffering from very large increases in shop lifting and thefts which the police do virtually nothing to deter.
December 2, 2024
Richard Holden MP just now:- âbetween 2010 and 2024 we did not get everything rightâ. Surely he meant âdid not get anything rightâ. Labour are just continuing the Con-Socialist policies but making them even worse.
December 2, 2024
Sir John,
Too many politicians are more interested in looking big abroad whilst ignoring almost, their own people.
Blair, Cameron, Boris and even St Obama were much more popular abroad than they were in their own country. I feel Starmer is playing the same game.
December 2, 2024
Watch what they do.
Keir-Ching! wants to take us closer to the EU whilst claiming that he has no intention of trying to rejoin.
Reeves Budget is going to cause Stagflation. State spending massively increased with no real benefits; the private sector being hammered to pay for it. Growth has already stalled and a recession is likely next year. There is already talk about a return to the ’70s and a bail-out by the IMF.
If the IMF is called in, I predict that the terms for a bailout will be the UK rejoining the EU and adopting the Euro.
Keir-Ching! and the B of E’s policies are deliberate and have an obvious objective.
December 2, 2024
I don’t believe a word of it. Its all talk. He is loving being the big âI amâ overseas. Starmer and his Cabinet, have got positions that they could only dream of,(and are unfitted for) and its gone to their heads
I may not believe all that Donald Trump says, but I do believe, to paraphrase him, we should,â Put Britain Firstâ.
December 2, 2024
I think there’s a reason the PM feels he needs to do lots of travelling rather than send the Foreign Secretary on his own. I support him on that.
Our exports to the EU are at an all time high and so are up both on 2016 (referendum) and 2019 (leaving). In 2019 our total exports to the EU (goods + services) were ÂŁ299bn. In 2023 they were ÂŁ356bn. I repeat these figures because there is a widespread misconception amongst Remainers that our exports to the EU have “collapsed”. The evidence they try to use to justify their claim is based on models which attempt to estimate the level of exports if we hadn’t left. Just like in Covid where policy was based on Neil Ferguson’s unvalidated scare-mongering predictions of what catastrophes might happen if his preferred policies weren’t implemented.
December 2, 2024
Gas and Electricity and Immigration. The implications on the country of the pursuit of failed policy in these areas has a greater effect that any other actions Sir Two Tier can take.
Mass immigration is a drain on public resources and housing. High gas and electricity costs affect our competitiveness and our cost of living (as does the pressure affected by high immigration on housing and other living costs).
With lower immigration, capacity demand in education, roads, transport, health and law and order reduces and Sir Free Beer can concentrate on other areas.
December 2, 2024
Yes Starmer is repeating and doubling down on the mistakes of the last Conservative govt. but in a more obvious and outspoken way, meaning their demise will happen all the faster. These are the Real Socialists we always said they were, as opposed to the say-one-thing-do-another Conservatives. Added to that, Starmer has an incoming US administration ready to knock these pro-EU, tax and spend, pro-overseas pro-immigration policies out of court. Conservatives only had to deal with a broadly similar socialist pro-EU pro-immigration high tax administration in the US.
So things should get interesting.
December 2, 2024
The UK economy has never really recovered from the Global Financial Crisis:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/07/26/37906/#comment-1466677
“… the most commonly cited impediments to growth â Brexit, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine â are like brief applications of the footbrake, and the real problem is that since 2008 the UK government has been driving with the handbrake on.”
The 2008 break point is very clear In this chart:
https://globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Ewen-Stewart-Chart-1-UK-GDP-per-capita.jpg
December 2, 2024
Off topic, I have sent this letter to our local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser:
“The government has just rejected a petition for the UK to apply to rejoin the EU as soon as possible, and rightly so.
Firstly, as we left the EU after a referendum any application to rejoin should need prior approval from voters in another referendum.
Secondly, the established interval between EU referenda in the UK is 41 years, so there should be no repeat referendum until 2057.
At the time of writing there were 132 signatories resident in the Maidenhead constituency, and I offer a helpful suggestion to them.
Just google for “The backroom stitch-up of the EU commissioner hearings”, which exposes the anti-democratic nature of the EU.
Yes, I know that our own democratic system is often pretty shambolic, but it is more likely that we can do something about that.
Patience: maybe by 2057 there will be a pan-European political entity we could join without undermining our national democracy.”
December 2, 2024
It is more likely that there will be a pan-Eurasian non-political entity – with a withered limb in the west that was formerly the EU.
December 2, 2024
You seem to have forgotten that in January 2023, when aked by Emily Maitlis if he had to choose between Davos and Westminster, Starmer, without hesitation, replied ‘Davos’.
December 2, 2024
I cannot imagine for a moment that if the Elgin marbles are lent to Greece, they will ever be returned. Starmerâs Britain appears to be a pushover on the international stage
December 2, 2024
I’m sorry, Sir John, I don’t have your optimism… but I do hope you’re right!
December 2, 2024
Some of us have noticed the change already. They are not a govenment for the nation, they are one for less than the 20% who voted for them. They are a divisive , thin lipped , collection of social retreads. Their agenda is irrelevant to the future of the UK. The sooner financial reality catches up with them the better.
December 2, 2024
“I am glad the PM is going to sharpen up his government and set out aims with targets so he can be judged on outturns.”
Sir John, unusually a bit of naivety from you on that. It would appear taken at face value everything said to get elected turns out to be a lie.
“He has spent far too much time, political capital and public money on travelling to sort out the alleged concerns of other countries.” he will continue these adventures as they make ‘Him’ in his mind look good, burnishes his self-esteem and view of self-importance.
There is no one in the Labour team that can comprehend ‘management’ or the ‘economy’, contriving new ways to tax and spend is not running a Country. Tax inflows is not the Country’ earning. Inhibiting people that ‘do’ because you think you have a better way, says you are not listening or hearing and don’t understand the point of Government in a Democracy. Until someone comes along that can listen, hear and work with the Country there is only decline
December 2, 2024
Your letter ‘If you want to outgrow the USA….’ omitted, in my view, one course of action which we should be considering if we want the UK to move closer to US GDP per capita. The UK is brilliant at developing step change innovation which can be applied to developing solutions to global problems but we are pathetic at commercialising the solutions at scale, and in many instances sell the technology to overseas buyers which then enjoy the benefits of successful commercialisation. Octopus Energy is an example that the UK can still develop and commercialise a business which can contribute to solving a major global problem – we just need to develop more such companies. Success in doing so will provide better paid and more interesting UK jobs, reduce the UK trade deficit and increase UK tax revenues.
The FCA has much to answer for the situation described above, having fostered a culture within the UK capital markets of risk minimisation rather than risk management. I believe that the position will resolve itself by companies like Octopus Energy making their shareholders wealthy, and those shareholders recycling some of the resulting wealth into other wealth creating businesses.
December 2, 2024
The re-launch of the re-launch is doing well so far!
Sir Keir Starmer will âsidelineâ his flagship pledge to make the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7 this week when he unveils new targets to make British people richer.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/01/starmer-sidelines-flagship-pledge-to-make-uk-g7/
âLabour said they wanted a mission-led government, but after five disastrous months in Government and 17 relaunches they cannot even decide what those missions are.
The Prime Minister is framing the Plan for Change as âthe most ambitious yet honest delivery plan in a generationâ.
The latest estimate from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Governmentâs independent economic forecaster, is that UK growth will be 1.1 per cent in 2024.
December 2, 2024
To think, Labour – the Starmer crew are only there because the Conservatives refused to listen, hear and manage and have since opted for no change, more continuity, more of failure. So you could reason getting rid of Starmer an Labour will give us more of the same promises, no management and no economy. One sector has been at it 5 months the continuity crowd proved it for 14 years.
It is Parliament that is rotten, that’s the bit that needs to be started over – something more drastic. Go a different way have people there(in Parliament) to represent their constituents and the Country and ban political parties from electioneering.
December 2, 2024
What âtight budgetâ? How can we have a tight budget? We have money to send 470 delegates to COP29. We have ÂŁ75 million pounds to watch a man having a crown placed on his head (the mind boggles). We have enough money to pay Liz Kendall ÂŁ350 a month to pay the energy bill for her ÂŁ4 million home. There is LOADSAMONEY – itâs just that governments prefer to spend it on themselves and palaces like Chequers and Chevening (NO expense spared there).
December 2, 2024
“Corporate Britain is better off with Labour than the âchaoticâ Tories, the chairman of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has said.”
“Rupert Soames said the stability offered by the new Government was preferable to the turnover seen under the previous administration”
Then again the CBI is the home of Foreign Companies intent on lobbying their own interests above the UK’s. UK Enterprises have steered clear for years.
December 2, 2024
And we know the prime minister has to âsharpen up his government and set out aims with targetsâ because he has presided so far over disarray and disenchantment.
He has not just been travelling, with grandiosity he has been âresetting relationshipsâ! He could believe in growth but his âeconomist by tradeâ Chancellor plainly does not so he looks likely to share the fate of other Labour leaders whose premierships have been ruined by Treasury colleagues.
Meanwhile, should we expect the official Leader of the Opposition to ever catch-up with the blistering pace you are setting?
December 2, 2024
Dear Mr. Redwood,
Ooh! Our focus groups say this this plan isn’t working. Let’s have another plan and a relaunch!
Aah! Nothing is getting better. Let’s have a cabinet reshuffle!
Err! Crime is on the increase. Let’s pass some more laws!
“This week, as part of a new “Plan for Change”, Sir Keir will reveal different economic targets aimed at improving living standards by the next general election. The Prime Minister is framing the Plan for Change as âthe most ambitious yet honest delivery plan in a generationâ.
And in that last sentence lies the trouble with today’s useless class of politicians. Style over substance. Over-promising and under-delivery. A belief that the mere act of having a plan is all that is required and that it will magically transform itself into action and outcomes.
Who believes that this new Plan will make any difference whatsoever?
December 2, 2024
I do not share your optimism Sir John. Our Prime Minister is the quintessential chameleon; he cannot be trusted and he demonstrates worrying signs of authoritarianism. Furthermore heâs rigid viewing everything through the prism of laws and rules. Strutting around the world stage pretending to be important when our country is in dire straits is no way to behave. 20,000 foreign migrants have entered our country since July, all being accommodated at vast expense to the taxpayer, all potentially using our resources and creating disruption to local communities. Itâs crystal clear Labour has no real idea how to stop the boats only the weather acts as a deterrent. Labour must stop giving our tax money to overseas causes and start focussing on domestic issues. How can they justify accommodating illegal migrants in hotels when there are homeless British citizens on our streets? Prime Minister Starmer appears to be soulless on these issues?
December 2, 2024
The unfortuate truth is that Stramer wil not be able to “sharpen up” his government, because you cannot put a lasting ‘edge’ on base metals. Any Toolmaker will tell you that.
December 2, 2024
Would be nice to hear of a sensible plan with some detailed facts, costings, and timelines, rather than simply producing Statements.
December 2, 2024
They don’t intend to reset the plans, just the propaganda.
December 2, 2024
The humiliation of having a âresetâ within months of taking office.
This is a massive admission. We need to rub their noses in it.
December 2, 2024
Petition with 2.94 million agree that there should be change (turnout July election circa 25 million)
December 2, 2024
Once again off topic:
On Friday MPs will debate a Bill to reverse the partial separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/11/23/questions-to-the-government/#comment-1485733
Next Tuesday MLA’s will vote to continue the partial separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czd5zv9lg9zo
Today, purely by coincidence, while looking for something else, I came across this from March 10 2019:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/10/fighting-fewer-wars-is-a-good-idea/#comment-1001730
âMichel Barnier hinted at it on Friday night, but the Irish delegation told me straight in Brussels on Thursday: they will never agree a subsequent agreement or variation to the Withdrawal Agreement which replaces the backstop that is not a customs union. Whether that is for the whole UK, or Northern Ireland on its own with a full customs border in the Irish Sea, is up to us, according to Barnier.â
Meaning Boris Johnson’s partial separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK cannot be reversed.
December 2, 2024
Irish elections green party 2020 – 12 seats
Irish elections green party 2024 – 1 seat
The people want change…….they don’t want net-zero
December 2, 2024
Hello Sir John,
You have a touching faith that the PM will change anything. After 14 years in opposition, you would have thought that Labour had prepared properly. But it looks like a wasted 14 years, as will be the next four plus.
It is a sad reflection on Johnson, Hunt, and Sunak’s incompetence that none of them listened to you and acted on your advice. A fat lot of good Boris saying that you were right now!
From Cameron onwards, we have not had a conservative PM with conservative values and policies.
The result is another incompetent PM, Chancellor, and cabinet who will collectively worsen the situation for the UK people and economy. The only change will be for the worst, not the b better!
December 2, 2024
It is a long time since a British government put the interests of the British people first…probably Thatcher.
Britain’s governments delight in “providing examples” which no other country follows but are to the detriment of the British people.
I doubt this will ever change.
December 2, 2024
Everything Theeves has done has been damaging to the prospects of achieving growth.
Then we have the ludicrous agreement over Diego Garcia. Just because the International court has decided we should give up the islands, is no reason to comply. The UN’s Colonial committee is totally dominated by Communist and Left Wing Countries who won’t even listen to our arguments. The 24 nation committee includes Iran, China and Russia, all three are firmly anti-Western and China at least uses bribery to get third world countries to support their views. The full membership of the UN committee is :
Antigua and Barbuda
Bolivia
Chile
China
Congo
CĂŽte d’Ivoire
Cuba
Dominica
Ecuador
Ethiopia
Fiji
Grenada
India
Indonesia
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Iraq
Mali
Nicaragua
Papua New Guinea
Russian Federation[1]
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Sierra Leone
Syrian Arab Republic
Timor-Leste
Tunisia
United Republic of Tanzania
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
We should follow the International policies of President Trump when he returns to office. Almost certainly he will cut financial support for the UN and other left-leaning International bodies and will withdraw from COP. We desperately need an overarching policy of Putting The UK First.
December 2, 2024
Kind of related to todayâs blog:
prospectmagazine.co.uk 02/12/2024 âThe Government needs help seeing the bigger pictureâ.