According to the Budget Red book the government will borrow £627.8 bn more over the next five years. 2029-30 shows the lowest additional borrowing as much delayed tax rises are meant then to come into effect, after the election. Do people believe that?
At the same time the government over the five years needs to borrow at least £675 bn to repay debt that falls due. In total the bond market will be asked to subscribe for at least £1300 bn of new bonds. No wonder our government borrowing rates are the highest of the advanced countries.
So why does the Chancellor say our debt is coming down? Why so much extra spending? Why does she delay the main tax rises she wants until after the next election? How long will it take to revalue homes to be able to impose the Mansion tax on some 3 bed flats in central London? How long to consult and legislate to impose a tax on using battery and hybrid cars?
Why was there so little comment in her speech on how to control spending? Why no proper discussion of the productivity collapse this decade in public services? Why no detail on how she will spend the £3.25 bn planned for AI in the civil service? Why no plan to control steel losses? Why no mention of Bank of England losses? The OBR has upped its forecast of those losses to £288 bn from Q3 2022, or £164 bn net of earlier profits.
The extra borrowing she plans over 5 years would mean at least £25 bn more in annual interest payments. So why does she go on complaining about the £100 bn plus the government is already paying each year to service the debt when she plans so much more?
She makes a great deal out of the fraud and wrong payments made under various covid schemes which Labour supported at the time. She is finding it difficult to get the money back. Instead of implying this was some unique incompetence of a former government, she should see the latest figures for the annual loss on benefit fraud and overpayments, running at around £10 bn a year on her watch. Why doesn’t she stop that if if stopping fraud is as easy as she thinks it could have been for the one off payments on lockdown to compensate people for loss of working incomes.
December 10, 2025
The answer is a combination of incompetence on her part, not being allowed to roll back spending by her party in power, and not giving a damn for what she hands to an incoming government. Hopefully it is the last irresponsible throw of socialism UK style.
December 10, 2025
When Sir John says that he does not want Labour to impose the ‘Mansion tax on some 3 bed flats in central London?’ Is he referring to a property he owned or owns?
Reply Of course not. My flat is much less valuable and smaller.
December 10, 2025
Doom loop Reeves is indeed considerably worse that Cameron, Osborne, May Hammond, Boris, Javid, Sunak, Hunt but the Tories did borrow and spend well over £100bn actually doing vast net harms with the proceeds. This on net harm Covid Vaccines, net harm lockdowns, net harm new red tape, augmenting the feckless with benefits, May’s moronic net harm net zero. The Tories even considered a similar Chagos deal.
The moronic NHS now encouraging cousin marriages and a return to pointless mask wearing! This while the government
continue to try to hide the damning Covid “vaccine” harm figures,
Reply David Cameron told the FCO to stop work on a Chagos sell out. Previous Conservative Foreign Secretaries were not proposing a give away but did not stop officials talking.
The excessive covid lockdown and consequent costs were wrong as I and some Conservative MP s said at the time. Our votes were too few to stop the more extreme measures as all the Opposition parties led by Labour wanted more lockdown and more state support for the resulting economic mess.
December 10, 2025
I remember when the covid government proposed the loans for companies to support them through the epidemic, and said at the time this was an open opportunity for fraud. We are now told that this has resulted in £10.9 Billion of fraudulent loans, cost to the Treasury– https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-fraud-cost-uk-taxpayer-109-billion-reveals-independent-report
Let’s face it, governments over the last 10 years have been unfit for purpose. Profligacy with ‘other peoples money’ was and is part of the character of our MPs.
December 10, 2025
Reply
Yes they all have short memories on wanting even more spending John, enough was never enough at the time.
December 10, 2025
I’m no economist. If they can keep the show on the road for their term but then leave Britain on the verge of bankruptcy, is it a ploy to destroy the politicians that replace them? Fewer years in the political wilderness?
They are globalists so don’t care for our country or its people. Many will hope for, or have been promised, lucrative jobs on the international gravy train in 4 years. Scuppering their successors who win the next election widens the job opportunities for the next generation.
December 10, 2025
Trump once again is spot on, this time on the wrecker of London – Sir Sadiq Kahn – ‘He’s an incompetent mayor, but he’s a horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor.’ Correct!
This adding to his other sensible advice to Sir Kier to scrap his war on CO2, go for cheap reliable energy, control the borders and to stop attacking free speech. Also not to have men unfairly competing in women’s sport.
Alas the evil Sir Two Tier Kier is not listening, indeed he is very similar Sir Sadiq clearly approving of taking political prisoners so as to kill free speech in the UK..
December 10, 2025
What do you expect? The Labour Party will always have an agenda under which they will increase the %age of the economy dictated by the party.
December 10, 2025
It’s pretty obvious that she intends to bring the country to its knees. It can only be a matter of ti
me before the bond markets revolt. This government will ultimately take the Weimar route of printing money which will wipe out individual savings which is part of the plan.
Next will come a collapse of the property market which will complete the destruction of personal wealth.
There is one nugget of good news, Germany had no bids for their latest round of windmill licences. With Reform saying they won’t honour any new commitments this government makes these probably won’t be any bidders here.
You do know ll this destruction is part of the UN/WEF playbook
Reply Conservatives have called for cancellation of the expensive bidding round.
December 10, 2025
So Prince William is to introduce P. George to the Centre Point homelessness charity as his mum Lady Di did with him. Fine but please keep him away from your and your dads climate alarmist delusions and gross hypocrisy. This for the sake of the Monarchy.
December 10, 2025
People keep talking about selling off the Chagos Islands – if only – it is being given away with a massive ongoing dowry – in effect to the Chinese!
December 10, 2025
“So why does the Chancellor say our debt is coming down?” Because she’s a liar.
December 10, 2025
She is utterly deluded. The state is out of control. It will remain out of control so long as Labour is in power.
December 10, 2025
Sir John, you ask these questions but the real problem is the person nominally on charge of the country’s spending and income is incapable of either hearing the question or having any clue how to address the issues you raise.
The throw away simplistic claim to pursue growth policies clearly is not happening. The entire effect of the Labour administration thus far has been to stifle growth collapse confidence and increase inflation.
The net impact on individuals, particularly those who pay tax, is a wealth decline and a reduction in spending power.
That decline in personal wealth is reflected in reduced economic activity and consequently lost jobs. The tragedy is, the people losing their jobs/work based incomes are given endless state support, making work unattractive and making them unproductive. They are unlikely to ever return to the tax paying side of the ledger.
Labour can now claim to be the Party of the workless and the tax consumers, or Public Sector as we refer to them. Those blocks of society will be the core Labour voter base, they know they have to keep the Labour Party in office for the sake of their own state provided livelihoods. Particularly the Public Sector. The workless are also hooked into Labour. How else will those unskilled or obsolete skill families survive? There are no jobs to go to. Starmer’s claim to be taking 500 thousand children out of poverty by giving more tax payers money to their parents, rather than increasing work based income opportunities speaks volumes about Labour and its vision for society.
Labour only knows how to confiscate and consume wealth, it has no concept of how to create wealth.
They have all but run out of golden eggs, they are now actively strangling the golden goose.
December 10, 2025
Yes depressing isn’t it, every Labour Government ever elected has left us in a bigger financial mess than when they took office.
They talk about 14 years of Conservative austerity, forgetting that they had spent all of the money on their 12 year term, and even left a note to confirm it.
Yes the Conservative Party made a huge number of mistakes during those 14 years, the biggest one in trying to be mini socialists themselves, but we now have a deliberate and legalised theft policy of higher taxation by Labour, in a bid to redistribute everyones wealth to the feckless.
December 10, 2025
To address the root of the problem, there are too many takers in the country who need to be paid for snd too few contributors.
Thus our politicians must pander to the takers in order to stay in power.
This suits Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems (and Reform whose fiscal policies are becoming more and more left wing) as it is their default position to tax and spend.
The Conservatives meanwhile, as the party of government, have adapted their MPs and ethos to appeal to the demographic who take rather than earn.
The only way to address this is to weight each person’s vote or to exclude those who don’t contribute.
An interesting debate to be had.
December 10, 2025
Why no immediate focus on Defence spending?
Increases in the Welfare budget will not help our economy one iota or help protect our population.
Starting to find ways to defend our air space, sea routes and cable/gas lines seems to me to be very much higher up the priority list. Coupled to that spending, a clean out of the Augean stables that is the MoD, together with an immediate reduction in high ranking officers would seem to be an urgent requirement.
Time to start thinking about a combined UK Defence Force that can protect these Isles and it’s people. A Government that had that objective would of course also help.