The UK needs to do more to secure our own defence in an insecure world. The government needs to improve our defences against incoming missiles and drones, by constructing a modern Iron dome or shield. Israel, the US and Ukraine have experience we can draw on.
We need to strengthen our surface fleet and our submarine capacity to protect our waters and the infrastructure they contain, and to help NATO keep open international sea lanes. Above all we need to expand our domestic weapons making capabilities and ensure we have title to essential technologies and designs so we could quickly scale up production should need arise.
The first task which the government still has not done is to draw up a list of capabilities we need to augment or create, with a timetable. Then we can work out a more accurate costing and determine a pattern of spend to speed their introduction. It is wrong to start with a debate about money before deciding what we need. When we know what we need we can best decide when we can afford it and deliver it.
I do not think we should plan to fight a war against Russia with land forces on the continent. We do not have anything like a big enough army and would need far more money and conscription to raise and train one. 800,000 Ukrainians bravely keep a Russian army of 1 million in check. ( there is a range of estimates and guesses but most agree each army is more than ten tines the size of the UK ‘s). We have just 75,000 committed to a world wide range of roles. As the last four years have shown there is no need for the UK to become involved in fighting Russia in Ukraine and no wish by most UK people to do so. The UK condemns the Russian invasion and the war crimes against civilians but has no wish to escalate this into a NATO war. As the US throughout has made clear it does not wish to go to war with Russia so NATO cannot go to war given US dominance in the alliance.Our forces usually operate by close cooperation with US forces and often rely on their cover.
Whilst the West sees the Ukraine war as Russian unprovoked aggression to grab back old USSR territory Russia sees this as a war of EU expansion, with the EU wanting to gain influence over Ukraine to stop Russian influence. President Trump wants a peace settlement as he has no intent to use US and NATO force to push back Russia. This encourages President Putin to demand tough terms, just as President Biden’s prevarications probably decided Putin to invade in the first place. The earlier failure of the West to respond forcefully to his annexation of Crimea would also have egged him on.
So the US leaves helping Ukraine to the EU as their problem given the plan for Ukraine to become a member. The US does not want Ukraine to join NATO as Russia wrongly sees that as a threat. The EU countries with the possible exception of Germany do insufficient to help with either money or arms.
The UK does not have a big enough army in peacetime to even help keep a future peace in Ukraine, let alone to join the fight.When we twice declared war on Germany and planned a land war on the continent we had to recruit a hugely increased army and turn our economy over to war production before we could win, and needed our US allies to help. Time to be realistic about what we can do. Definitely time to be more serious about putting in more force to defend these islands.
December 15, 2025
For a decent defence system and a decent economy you first need to ditch net zero and fire the totally deluded (or dishonest perhaps) Miliband. You need a decent economy to fund decent defence systems but all of this appalling government’s agenda is directed at suffocating the economy with taxes, endless red tape and rip off energy.
Starmer is not even willing to try to stop the (now not so small) boats full of fighting aged men. The pathetic man is reduced to staged photo ops of him lighting a Chanukiah, “our thoughts and prayers are with those murdered in the terrorist attack on Bondi” he says. Will he be doing anything to stop this dangerous invations, perhaps reversing his moronic decision together with Canada and Australia to recognise Gaza and to perhaps (with the truly appalling Mayor of London Trump is surely spot on about Kahn) to stop the regular and vile London and other antisemitic marches?
December 15, 2025
The first thing we need to do is rid the country of the people here who wish us harm. Already they are starting to organise themselves and demand we comply with their wishes. Festivals and cultural activities are being watered down particularly in schools so as not to offend. As seen again in Australia yesterday, these people hate us and have no intention of assimilation to our ways.
Just how many of these fellow travellers sign up to our armed forces as most have experience and are the right age. Before we expand our military we must confront the enemy within.
December 15, 2025
I hearty agree with your first sentence. Although I do not see them as the problem, more the symptom of it. The problem is, we have those in power throughout the State who, for one reason or another, refuse to dicuss it let alone admit to it. Today’s article being a case in point.
December 15, 2025
I completely agree.
Defence is impossible when the enemy is within the gates.
December 15, 2025
And 700 more came across the Channel yesterday. No attempt is being made to stop them. I read this morning that emotions are high in Glasgow, due to the shortage of social housing there that is being used to house them.
I fear for the future if this goes on much longer.
December 15, 2025
Agreed, we must be reaching a tipping point for civil unrest.
December 15, 2025
The people who wish us harm – the current government seems to.
I see that the Australian PM Anthony Albanese has called for tougher gun controls! Had the murders been committed with hammers, trained dogs, cross bows or bone handled carving forks would he have demanded stricter controls on them. No shortage of ways to kill people if you wish too.
It is not the weapon that are the problem you moronic lefty it is the murderering terrorist and people like you and two Tier who encourage them by recognising Gaza etc.! Do you think these appalling suicide terrorists will apply for licences for their weapons of choice?
December 15, 2025
O/T I see that the wind industry body is describing the £900 million in subsidies for the AR7 latest bidding round for useless windmills disappointing. Obviously if they worked they wouldn’t need any subsidies and as Reform have written to all the suppliers telling them they won’t honour any agreement by milibrains government, maybe like the EV scam, it’s coming to an end.
Germany got no bidders for their latest round as they refused to subsidise them.
December 15, 2025
Palestine rather!
December 15, 2025
We also need some decent law and order at home. Not the current Two Tier Kier agenda. Do nothing if at all possible always seems to be the police’s agenda when ever I have reported any crimes over the years.
Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley has rather pathetically stated that retailers need to “step up” and “do better” in assisting police efforts to tackle shoplifting. He argued that a lack of cooperation from some businesses is hampering police investigations, despite an increase in the number of shoplifting cases solved by the force. Well when you know the police generally have a do nothing attitude why would they even bother to report it?
The British Transport Police will not even look at filmed bike thefts at stations if more than two hours after it was left or worth less than £200. Zero deterrent policing gives us more and more crimes! The police a while back even announced shop lifting under £200 would not be pursued so as to augment this crime. I suppose they can do about 20 times £200 in a day if they really try to! This on top of benefits!
December 15, 2025
It is funny watching judges verdicts on TV criticising the defendant for expressing the views of the decent majority of this country. Sadly we have a woke judicial elite that are completely out of touch with reality like our political class, and the main stream media.
December 15, 2025
“The US does not want Ukraine to join NATO as Russia wrongly sees that as a threat”. I don’t think Russia is wrong, given NATO expansion since the end of the USSR, the not altogether proxy war in Ukraine and recent statements by Rutte and NATO top brass about fighting an offensive war against Russia.
Add in German rearmament and a failing increasingly authoritarian globalist elite in the EU and UK, and NATO is a big problem, for all of us. It’s a nominally defensive organisation that needs to create a threat in order to justify its existence. Rather like the EU saying nationalism is a threat to us all, and not simply a threat to the supernational EU itself.
Before re-arming we should consider if NATO is still needed by us here in the UK. I don’t think it helps us defend ourselves and is actually a threat to what should be our main aims: avoid wars, maintain our sovereignity and advance trade.
December 15, 2025
@Wanderer – Austria is not in NATO as Russia saw them as a threat.
“failing increasingly authoritarian globalist elite in the EU and UK” – are they? Kier Starmer has already indicated in the media it is not Parliament he listens too, but his buddies that he considers the globalist elite. The EU still controls our laws and direction, 2TK’s has signed an agreement with the EU that the UK wont compete. To that end they have the last say in things the UK Citizen wants, Nuclear power being the latest, it will be the EU that decides on where and if it is built in the UK. Under 2TK it is not a choice the democratically elected UK Parliament can make.
December 15, 2025
Whether in or out of NATO we clearly need to rearm – and rapidly. It’s no good going around the world blustering about the collation of the willing and all the other empty guff. It’s plain for all to see that we cannot defend ourselves at the moment – let alone anyone else.
Just know that there are plenty of people out there who would be quite willing to give us a good kicking if they thought they could get away with it. If you want Peace, be prepared for War! If you want your backside thrashed, then don’t. It’s very simple.
December 15, 2025
@IanT – it comes to something when the UK Parliament empowered and paid by the electorate/taxpayer to have a priority to keep us safe, is instead keeping its figures crossed behind its backs and reliant on the whims of others as to they would respond. There are no guarantees even in NATO
December 15, 2025
Which people, Ian? Please name them.
December 15, 2025
My short list would include Russia, China, Iran and potentially (in the future) Argentina. None of them are our friends, as I hope is self evident. That’s quite apart from the numerous other folk around the world that would be only too happy to do us ill if they could. I wouldn’t suggest a pleasure cruise down the Straits of Hormuz for instance…
December 15, 2025
May I suggest reading a bit of history, particularly during the last century the way in which the Allies came together for obvious mutual benefit. Without a combined force to confront Nazi expansionism, Europe as we now know it would not exist. But for American weapons productive capacity, we would not have had the wherewithal to fight. Freedom, as we have enjoyed up to now, does not come cheaply.
December 15, 2025
And the Russian sacrifice of 24 million people.
Above all remember which countries constituted The Allies, and which constituted The Axis Powers.
December 15, 2025
Like it or not we are now a multicultural Country, the DNA, values, pride, patriotism and love of country that made up the population decades ago has now changed, and so could have its attitudes and commitment to defence and War.
War should always be a last resort, but you need to know that the population is willing to stand behind you should ever the need arise.
We are fortunate that we are surrounded by sea, which makes invasion that much more difficult, but it also has its down side as we found out in the 1940’s, when we could not feed ourselves.
Defence is much more than just numbers of people and arms, apart from not being able to feed ourselves, now we cannot guarantee to even generate enough power to keep the lights on, let alone to keep the factories (of which there are now few) going.
No surprise that Putin (or anyone else for that matter) is surveying our undersea interconnections.
Meanwhile we should be looking to see how we can best protect what we have got !
December 15, 2025
“We are fortunate that we are surrounded by sea, which makes invasion that much more difficult” not if you have a small rib boat in France it seems!
December 15, 2025
Lifelogic
Take your point !
Perhaps I should have said “SHOULD” make invasion that much more difficult.
December 15, 2025
We have to hope that when threatened by a common enemy, we could all work together to defend of homes and families Alan. People will fight for what they love.
December 15, 2025
Ian
I agree and hope that would be the case, but what percentage are really prepared to do so ?
We have thousands here who have already fled from their own Country instead of fighting for it, will they stay and fight, would they leave again, would they even be on our side ?
The love for my own Country is I am afraid getting less, and less, because the ordinary citizen is now suffering from completely incompetent government.
I have been a member of a local Voluntary Service Club Charity for 35 years, the last 5 years as a Trustee, I give about 500 hours a year to the cause, and cover all my own personal expenses from my own funds, as do other members..
For the last 10 years it seems like we are now going backwards, with more people needing help, but with us getting less support from Government/Local Authorities with more and more regulation, sad to say it but our Country has been going downhill for the last couple of decades, and Government tax, regulation, incompetence and interference in all aspects of our lives has been growing at an accelerated pace.
Our Country and our people are simply a shadow of what was the case of a few decades ago.
December 15, 2025
Undersea connections. Therein lies the real 2025 threat. An Iron Dome sounds great, but we could be imobilised in hours if the lines are cut and Putin has all the maps he needs to do it. We need to strengthen our navy rather than the army – I doubt a future war against us will be with bombs and boots on the ground. It was easy for Putin to attack Ukraine, he just rolled over the border, not so easy with sea all around. We need to guard our cables and land bound cyber systems first and foremost.
December 15, 2025
NATO has cut plenty of Russian undersea connections, NATO is not squeaky clean on this.
December 15, 2025
In 2025, there are no reports of NATO or its member states cutting Russian undersea connections. When did any of this happen?
December 15, 2025
@Berkshire Alan – Industrial base, maliciously and deliberately closed down by the UK Parliament. Food production, its future dismissed as unnecessary. A Country propped up by the political will of others, a country that all its earnings that are not paying for benefits are used to pay for imports
December 15, 2025
The defence of a nation in the hands of those who do not believe in said nation!! What can possibly go wrong?
A gaggle of International Socialists/Champagne Socialists all with their student politics mentality.
What type of people will be making the decisions on equipment needed? Those who wouldn’t know one end of a gun from the other no doubt, and the type who over the years have called for removal of toy guns as promoting male toxicity.
The latter in itself has left us somewhat defenceless as I really can’t imagine many of the young men I see around being capable of withstanding the deprivations of war.
Then we have the issue of many who believe in this nation, history/culture and their place within it, but who feel that very place has been taken from them. Why fight for something you increasingly feel adrift from. Why fight on the say so of the likes of Starmer??
These issues may seem basic to anyone wishing to put an intellectual spin on defence, but often it is the very basics that if not sound can be ruinous.
Our defence requires our ability to produce arms, feed ourselves, be energy efficient and secure and above all it must have a people who believe in what, where and who they are fighting for. I think it’s called morale, something military men often note as being important.
This being proven I think by the Ukrainian defence.
December 15, 2025
Good morning
The invasion of the UK is going right under our very noses. Not from Russia or any other state but a mirriad of people claiming to be refugees from non-existant wars and persecution elsewhere. An Iron Dome will not work against this threat to our nation as the enemy is within the gates, gates held open by people who wanted to be seen as nice and virtuous and not at all racist.
If there is a war to be fought it is of a domestic /civil type. The worse type. And to ignore this is little more than burying one’s head in the sand and hope no one notices you.
For me Rupert Lowe MP is leading the way other will find difficult to follow. Let us hope, much like our kind host, he too does not turn out to be a Cassanda figure.
December 15, 2025
and yet the invasion within is not of the ‘sleeper’ variety but in plain sight.
December 15, 2025
+1
December 15, 2025
Here is Rupert Lowe’s response:
That this House recognises the ongoing threat posed by Islamist extremists who seek to carry out terror attacks in the United Kingdom; notes that the UK’s border and immigration system faces sustained pressure from both legal and illegal migration routes, with significant challenges in monitoring and assessing high-risk individuals; believes that the Government must take urgent and comprehensive action to protect the public from those who pose a genuine security threat; calls on the Government to review and, where necessary, suspend visa routes from countries designated as high-risk for terrorism and extremist activity; further calls for the strengthening of powers to remove foreign nationals, or strip British citizenship from dual nationals and then remove, who are involved in, incite, or support extremist Islamist ideology that threatens public safety; supports measures to ensure that foreign individuals who have been convicted of terrorism-related offences, or who present a demonstrable national security risk, are excluded or removed from the UK; urges the Government to improve the identification, detention, and removal processes for those who enter the UK illegally and cannot be safely verified; also calls for heightened vigilance against domestic radicalisation, including stronger oversight of institutions where extremist ideology may be promoted; and further urges the Government to ensure that all necessary steps are taken to prevent, disrupt, and dismantle Islamist extremist networks and individuals who pose a threat to the safety and security of the British people.
December 15, 2025
Agree
December 15, 2025
If we really wish to prepare for a major NATO war with Russia, we need to recognise that the MoD desperately needs root and branch change to their procurement system
We have just blown ~£6.5bn on the disastrous Ajax project, which at ten years late and £2bn over budget is going to have to be cancelled – after only 150 units have been delivered. This machine, built by General Dynamics – but managed by the MoD – has so many vibration/noise problems that soldiers are being made ill whilst training in it.
From authorising GD to buy the wrong grade of Chinese steel (which had failed the weldability test) to hulls built in GD’s Spanish factory out of square (also approved by the Authority) to the stupid decision to change the design half way through manufacture, MoD incompetence has resulted in a gold-plated heavy recce vehicle that cannot be used.
GD and the MoD civil servants have repeatedly assured successive SoS Defence that the problems have been solved. As is usual, the guilty have covered their tracks and moved on upstairs to a cushy number in the Treasury.
We should only buy equipment off the shelf for our armed forces. The BAE equivalent, their CV90, has sold thousands of units right across NATO. The people responsible for this latest procurement fiasco have retired or moved on to jobs on the gravy train. We should be looking at recovering the costs from them
December 15, 2025
We are in a hurry – and like the Polish, we should buy off the shelf. The Poles purchased tanks, artillery and planes from the South Koreans. I agree, slash the MoD to the bone and give a few people key tasks and a fixed budget. Their motto – “Do or Die!” (or at least get fired with ignominy).
December 15, 2025
‘the MoD desperately needs root and branch change to their procurement system’.
I would have hoped the age-old internal fights between representatives of land, sea and air were long gone and the merging of interests resolved? How we continue making serious mistakes in purchasing carriers, frigates, fighters and bombers, plus shocking land vehicles is as disturbing as ever.
December 15, 2025
+1
December 15, 2025
@Sakara Gold – the Ajax was crippled by an interfering MOD. The alone have made it 50% heavier than its design spec. GM with hind sieght should have walked way
December 15, 2025
They not the
December 15, 2025
Indeed MoD procurement makes the Covid PPE procurement, Covid Vaccines “procurement” and Sturgeon’s ferry fiasco look fairly normal and competent for the state sector.
Is there any update to this book yet – The Blunders of Our Governments Hardcover – 9 Sept. 2013
by Anthony King (Author), Ivor Crewe (Author)
I suppose a new one might start with Net Zero and the Covid incompetence – cost wasted several £ trillion at least, Then Blair’s idiotic and counterproductive wars many billions, test and trace and nearly all the other state sector IT projects!
December 15, 2025
Indeed, the book you outline is a good read, but unfortunately just shows how our procurement system is in a dire state.
December 15, 2025
yea but MOD procurement is broken for a number of reasons that even sacking everyone at Abbey Wood would not solve.
one is the way security clearance works (or rather does not work), it takes so long to get SC that mostly companies are forced to hire people who already have SC, as waiting for anyone with experience outside defence to get SC takes too long. this tends to make the whole defence industry incestuous and impervious to better practise in the rest of industry. it also helps preserves “jobs for the boys” where ex military often get jobs on defence programmes they are completely unqualified for, simply because they already have SC, and often because they know the seniors who are ex senior military officers.
and the whole way ex MOD officials and ex military officers get shoehorned into defence contractor roles does not work. sure it helps the contractor win work (as corrupt insider knowledge and contacts helps) but it does nothing to keep the quality up for what the public are spending.
but yea sacking everyone in Abbey Wood would help a lot. its a public sector organisation that would have gone bust in the real world long ago.
etc
December 16, 2025
It is some years since I was involved in MoD Procurement. My memory is that The Army is the least good at a managing procurement projects. An Army friend once said to me that the big difference between the navy and the Army is that the Navy mans equipment and the Army equips men. In other words Army people are not equipped to manage complex procurement projects. It is very sad to see a project such as Ajax go so badly wrong but I don’t know the reasons in this case.
Another observation is that the failure rate increases as the approval process gets closer to ministers. Whilst the military may have a clear requirement and the Procurement Executive have a clear plan for procurement, a minister introduces all sorts of factors that have little if anything to do with military capability. Ministers tend to turn even clearly defined projects into dog’s dinners.
My final observation is that ministers’ involvement is reciprocated in the political manoeuvring of industry suppliers. They feed off each other. Political games are just not part of the skills inventory of most military people.
December 15, 2025
If Russian verbal assault on the UK was to convert to more physical attacks, destruction of undersea cabling, more serious proxy cyber interference, and public transport and other key infrastructure damage, then we would need to be ready to respond in kind. In fact we already need to develop nuclear strike capabilities independent of US, to tell Putin how we would react to Russia in their use against us.
December 15, 2025
We already have nuclear strike capabilities independent of the USA. It is a myth perpetrated by the left that it is under American control. The warheads are designed and built in Britain.
December 15, 2025
… and the delivery systems? Row boats to Moscow anyone? Are you insisting the UK could deliver a nuclear device on Moscow without US agreement?
December 15, 2025
in case you have not noticed the recent test launches from UK subs resulted in the missiles dropping into the sea near the sub. their biggest risk is to our submariners not the Russians, Chinese, Indians etc.
December 15, 2025
@Ian Wragg – to true, to many myths perpetrated by a lazy free-floating Parliament
December 15, 2025
‘The Trident missiles rely on the US for maintenance which is done by the manufacturer Lockheed Martin; missiles have to return to the US for scheduled maintenance every few years’ https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/uks-nuclear-deterrent-relies-us-support-there-are-no-other-easy-alternatives
December 15, 2025
I suggest the more immediate problem which needs urgent attention is the invasion which has been underway across the channel for many years (both the dinghies and trucks). We are importing people who wish us harm, whether that is simply criminal harm or criminal and terrorist …. or both.
Between 1939-45 anyone who facilitated the importation of the enemy would have been called a traitor and received a very severe punishment. The same should apply now.
December 15, 2025
Sir John, There is much in your article and I do agree that we now need to take the prospect of war with Russia as a serious eventuality and plan our national military capability accordingly. We also need to prepare our civilian population and infrastructure, just see the devastation wrought by Russia in Ukraine. The expansion and organisation of the UK civil emergency services and infrastructure will be critical.
December 15, 2025
Missiles and drones are a cheap way of destroying incoming invaders while still at sea in the modern world. We don’t need an expensive large surface fleet that in the modern age are large floating targets.
December 15, 2025
GB
Indeed, That is the very big lesson to learn from the Ukraine conflict.
Laser type defence weapons if developed rapidly could perhaps also be an answer !
December 15, 2025
@Geoffrey Berg. We don’t have any active capable surface ships, even our nuclear boats(submarines) just a quick look on Google earth shows 11 a laid up awaiting money to be available.
The so-called aircraft carriers were crippled by the MOD to save cost, they at best only have planes that only have the capability to protect themselves and the ship, they can’t project
December 15, 2025
@GB – the USA using the Harrier what is now a cheap plane relatively speaking quite easily has taken out drones and missiles fired at shipping.
December 15, 2025
Sitting ducks like the two aircraft carriers without suitable aircraft and all sorts of issues – one used mainly for spares it seems – HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, cost a combined total of approximately £10Bn so far.
December 15, 2025
@Lifelogic – £10bn for a job poorly done just to save maybe perhaps a billion. Even France’s carrier is nuclear powered has ‘cats & traps’ and gets to carry a wider range of aircraft. It can defend, attack and project.
These UK white elephants have to be fuelled every 10days or become dead in the water. Much is made that they are big and a target, for the commentators only to miss the point its only their refuelling tankers that need to sunk.
The F-35B could be a wonderful plane for the navy, but its limited range and capability support hampers it. Normally carriers also have refuelling planes, so the first thing a STOL(F-35B) plane does once it uses masses of fuel to just get of the deck is to refuel, before it can then go on its mission. The MOD denied that capability. The F-35C(the actual navy version) starts with a larger range and is thrown of the deck by a catapult(saves fuel), but the are also joined by refuellers, recognisance and electronic warfare jambing planes i.e. the full complement to project and make a difference, as they can all get on and off the home ship. The F-35B is crippled from the get go
December 15, 2025
yea but the only reason Gordon Brown signed up to buy two carriers was for the jobs in Scotland that were politically helpful for him. he didnt really care less if they were actually going to be any use.
Cameron tried to cancel one of the carriers but was told not legally possible.
In general I think we would have been better off copying one of the US carrier designs.
December 15, 2025
“The UK needs to do more to secure our own defence in an insecure world” – Exactly.
Pinning hopes on so-called friends is a fools and a dangerous choice.
December 15, 2025
“Pinning hopes on so-called friends is a fools and a dangerous choice.”
Indeed.
As someone once said, countries don’t have friends – only interests.
December 15, 2025
On the other hand, UK alone cannot win a major war without allies. You don’t get to choose your war. War chooses you.
December 15, 2025
Defend the country from Russia when the country doesn’t even defend itself from an unarmed invasion over the English Channel?
Let’s wind the tape back a bit. Why should a patriotic Brit sign up for the armed services to go off to fight, when the enemy behind is poised to move into his place when he doesn’t come back?
Why should a true Brit care if a foreign power is threatening missiles on London, when he sees it as a place of muggings and stabbings, and the people there rarely speak English? Karachi, Tehran or Damascus may as well be the target as far as he is concerned.
There’s a work to be done in this country before we can address the issue of defence against Russia and the like. A new government needs to get to grips with integration, and anyone who persists in fomenting hatred of the UK should be either repatriated or re-educated.
December 15, 2025
Exactly. In an earlier post someone said ‘we are no longer the nation’ that faced the Axis powers. Different dna. We have been defeated.
The Political/Monarchical class when ‘war with Russia’ so they can use emergency powers to control what is left of the native British population.
Believe me, clean, law-abiding, low Tax, Christian Russia does not want London. Neither do we let’s face it.
I think Christian native Europeans need to leave and form a majority somewhere else. We are spread too thin on the Earth and we are suffering massive demographic decline. In 2 generations the native British will number 1/3 of current numbers (at best).
December 15, 2025
‘Believe me’: why should I do that? What is your experience, your qualifications, your network of counsellors, your published books relevant to the question at hand?
Can you give us the exact thinking that produces these ‘native British 1/3 of current numbers (at best) in 2 generations’?
Your comment does not relate to any of the prospective scenarii envisioned by the Oxford University’s Migration Observatory.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
December 15, 2025
par for the course with Lynn.
December 15, 2025
I can’t help feeling that all of this talk of preparing for war is a sad theatrical attempt to disturb Russia.
Russia is not the enemy here, it is Nato leaders and western leaders playing to the audience – never mind that even collectively we do not have the firepower to beat Russia!
BUT that is the whole point – It was agreed in previous decades that Russia would not stand for a NATO country on it’s borders.
Russia have always insisted on a buffer zone, and this is one of the reasons for the war.
While it is true that successive UK governments have whittled down our once powerful armed services to a fraction of what they should be, and we need to build them back up again. It shouldn’t be a case of simply buying a huge amount of expensive armaments without building up our capability to use this century’s weapons. Let’s do it differently, with a little common sense, no panic, and degrade the actual threat that Russia poses to us – It is vastly overstated.
December 15, 2025
While I agree with the general comment in your overview John, and I agree we need to be capable of proper defence of these islands. That raises the big question.
What and who are we defending the Islands from?
If, it is invasion by enemies unknown? Then we are already late, with daily invasion of hundreds of fighting men of unknown intent already landing on our beaches every day. The number arriving in the past two years being greater than our entire army.
If the prime objective is to defend our islands from a technologically evolved adversary who is able to attack us with stand off weapons, we are in even more trouble. Weapons launched in mass attack designed to overwhelm our capability to detect or deter them now exist, we have a long development road ahead of us to overcome them. We know how to do it, we just don’t have the manufacturing capacity any longer.
Until manufacturing is once again seen and supported for being the true defender of these Islands which it is, we will be forever beholden to ‘allies’ for essential equipment we should have made ourselves.
When we lose the capacity to make stuff, we also lose the capacity to innovate and modify the stuff we no longer make.
December 15, 2025
I was twice stationed in BAOR, latterly as part of an Armoured Brigade, one of three within our Division. There were three Divisions that between them had about 600 main battle tanks and some 3000 other armoured vehicles. My ‘company car’ at that time was a 432 APC. There were over 50,000 troops in Germany then, with more in the UK, Cyprus, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Today we have about 20,000 fighting men in total, a few dozen tanks that still work out of a theoretical 200 in inventory. The hard truth is that we cannot defend this country, let alone fight a land war on the continent.
We should be declaring a national defence emergency at this point and putting every effort into getting our existing assets usable, most especially our fleet (what’s left of it). In particular our hunter killer submarines should be got back into service. As far as any land war in Europe, the German and Poles will probably have to take the brunt of it and the French will (as always) look after themselves. Our history points the way to what we need to do, which is get out natural Island fortress ready for a potential attack – and quickly!
December 15, 2025
@IanT – the UK Parliment fudge thinking that a few score of the willing are capable of constant 24/7/365 without sleep. While they just worry about their personal ego and full income for the unwilling
December 15, 2025
Russia has absolutely no interest in invading UK, why would it ? And if the EU wants to turn itself into a military power it should first have a word with the freeloading Irish government who only spend 0.3% GDP on defence and pretend they are neutral.
December 15, 2025
@Roy Grainger – reminds me of the EUSR, like minded government that is more likely to merge than be attacked
December 15, 2025
But Putin is keen to deter UK assisting anyone else in military conflict.
December 15, 2025
Have you thought that maybe he does not want to have to target the U.K.?
He has ignored all the Storm Shadows, and much else.
December 15, 2025
Russia doesn’t have to “invade” the UK Roy to do devastating damage to the us.
Indeed, evidence of this already exists. The recent cyber attack that brought down JLR and costs billions was a serious event in it’s own right. Having our cable or gas connections severed, getting a key naval centre hit by a ballistic missle, having a large city attacked by mass drones (launched off-shore from a Russian merchant ship?) would be much worse.
As for the Irish, I agree. They claim neutrality but in practice allowed IRA terrorists safe refuge inside the Republic after crossing the border to attack us. For decades, they have informally lived under our defence unbrella, much as Europe has lived under the US one. Unfortunately, we need to defend our western flank, including the seas around Ireland but we should not expect too much practical help from the Irish in doing so. Frankly, it’s about time we started treating them (and their citizens) exactly the same as any other EU country – particularly when it comes to prioitising our own national interests.
PS – I’ve often mused that as ‘Chancellor’ I would reduce our Corporate Tax levels to match those in Ireland. It would be interesting to hear the EU’s objections to this. Perhaps the Irish would be made to raise their taxes, in which case we could simply match whoever then had the lowest rate within the EU.
December 15, 2025
EU is not interested in agreeing a common Corporation Tax to deter (mostly) US Corporates rigging tax on profits at the lowest rate, nor cheating on stating other rights to the profit sitting in the cheapest country.
December 15, 2025
“So the US leaves helping Ukraine to the EU as their problem” and so it is. If the EU hadn’t been so quick to recognise the seizure of the Crimea as legitimate they may not have encouraged him(Putin) to go further. Logic is Russia now seeing a weak EU will push further, and pick off the non-NATO members that surround it.
The US as it is their Taxpayers that fund (according to the BBC) 64% of Nato rightly sees an imbalance, so much so as some of us would infer the EU & the UK is taking the p……(rise) out of the US Taxpayer. The EU alone has around 30% bigger population that the USA yet funds just half of its ‘own’ defence.
The UK in the same perspective is one fifth of the USA in population terms but can barely come up with a contribution that is equal to 10%. A army of just 75,000 isn’t 75,000 fit, yet the trained and capable for the front line at best there is only 10,000 on rotation. The USA just 5 times the size of the UK has approx 450,000 fit for the front line. The UK is not pulling its weight, thanks to what is a corrupt lazy free-loading Parliament in neglect of its prime duties.
A major duty of Parliament, its MPs, is to keep us safe and secure one of its many fails. The UK Parliament as a whole is not fit for purpose
December 15, 2025
An “Iron Dome” to protect against incoming Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles is a big expensive commitment, which I am far from convinced the UK has the economic appetite for. Would likely only be scoped to save London, which as it is no longer English anyways the majority of the population who would be left unprotected would be unlikely to be happy paying for.
To protect against cruise missiles is much more doable, indeed a sensible sized navy home fleet could help a lot there. Is there really an appetite for the amount of money needed for anti missile defences along our coast?
Anti drone techniques, yes we need, not just for the homeland, but also for our mobile forces. There is a lot to be done here. The Ukrainians have made a lot of progress, and sensible investments could make a lot of progress. At the moment we cannot even defend our airports against kids playing with toy drones.
Which all ignores the elephant in the room, that large numbers of the people living in the UK, and being imported daily, do not share our values, actively hate us, and are likely to increase their violence against us when it suits them. Any attempt to bring them to check will likely result in a backlash which our police and army are ill equipped to deal with. Civil war is our most likely risk, and defence need.
Putin is correct, the UK is a spent force, he has nothing to fear from the UK as our suicidal empathy with people who hate us has made us fundamentally weak.
Then we have the British state actively prosecuting ex military for doing their job decades ago, while the terrorists that were trying to kill them are given pardons. A British state which openly discriminates against white working class hetro males, and indeed has been found guilty of this in the case of airforce pilots. Not only have the apologies been small and insignificant, but the rot has not been tackled more widely, no heads have rolled.
We have an AJAX programme which has spent a fortune, delivered pants results, and yet the main activity at the moment seems to be acting like emperor’s new clothes and pretending all is fine, no improvement in defence procurement, or the way defence projects run will result from this fiasco. We have fighter jets that cannot land on our carriers without first dumping their ammunition into the sea, which will increase the need for ammunition supplies massively if we ever need to use them in anger, and its hardly environmentally friendly to dump ammunition into the sea eh? We have a submarine fleet which is largely confined to port as the problems with corrosion are so much worse than ever anticipated, and of course we only have Barrow capable of making subs now, an all eggs in one basket approach, and the recent fire in Barrow will be delaying progress on subs currently (although this is never mentioned, as apparently they think we and the Russians/Chinese/Indians are too stupid to work this out, so its secret, its too funny its almost a comedy).
All a bit of a mess really.
The army superficially has better “diversity” in its ranks than the other services mainly due to the Gurkha’s and Fijians. Meanwhile the actual non-white recruits from Bradford, Slough, Birmingham, Brixton, etc are spectacularly missing, we have vast proportions of the resident population that will never fight for the UK. And the state has spent decades telling white working class males that they are not good enough, they have “white privilege”, and that everyone else should be shown favouritism in front of them, and yet somehow the state expects them to all suddenly volunteer to fight?
What are we fighting for? A NATO which moved ever further East contrary to continual promises to Russia that it would not expand? A NATO which includes countries which would never ever fight in our defence? A London which is actively anti British? Large cities like Bradford, Rotherham, Birmingham which look and sound more like Pakistan than anything a white working class male would want to call home?
Time for a lot of rethinking. Most of the defence budget is wasted. Most of the ethos is wrong. The fundamentals of what we are defending are not there. We are not even admitting the biggest risk openly in polite conversation.
December 15, 2025
Iain:
You are completely right.
Why fight for a country which has ceased to exist? Do you want to die to defend diversity?
White schoolchildren are taught that the history of this country is one of slavery and colonial exploitation. Why fight to defend that?
If we were to build more warships and submarines (and we can’t because we do not have the industrial capacity) they would be left idle because we cannot recruit the sailors to man them. Who wants to serve a racist, colonialist country?
You cannot run your country down, demonize its white majority, turn its towns and cities into third world dumps, and expect people to volunteer to defend it. What is there left to defend?
December 16, 2025
I agree. Why would the traditional cannon fodder for the Elite, British white working class males, want to fight for a country which the Establishment has wrecked with mass 3rd world immigration, and which makes it contempt for them perfectly clear.
December 15, 2025
+1. Well said.
December 15, 2025
@Iain Gill – if as you say it ever finds its way into production. Waiting for that to happen is so far in the future when the problem is the here & now, today
December 15, 2025
You must have read ME Sarrotte’s, “Not One Inch”
“I do not think we should plan to fight a war against Russia with land forces on the continent.”
Absolutely right. UK can be a sovereign independent country only as a maritime power. It has no alternative yet too many leading politicians from Cameron onwards cannot understand this. The EU is comprised mainly of land powers. Its defence and foreign policies inevitably do not suit UK. Norway is an obvious exception, being on the Northern flank facing the USSR and now Russia, hence the close defence co-operation with Norway. I have worked as a consultant (being a former naval officer) with NATO, governments in UK, France, Australia and far eastern countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. I continue to be amazed at the lack of understanding of British politicians – no disrespect to you, since you obviously are one of the few who do understand.
December 15, 2025
Western hypocrisy and arrogance knows no bounds;invading other countries, removing leaders we don’t like to, killing millions, devastating infrastructure then walking away leaving chaos! We are no longer a major international player even though Starmer struts around pretending we are. Our military has been systematically weakened over decades as has many other European nations preferring reliance on US military strength and money within NATO. That concept is now finished as President Trump makes clear in his recent US Strategic Strategy document. The notion of going to war with Russia is insane and Secretary General Rutte’s recent outburst is deeply irresponsible. There is no evidence Russia wants to invade any European country let alone UK. Russia invaded Ukraine after years of provocation, including Biden’s refusal to negotiate and because fundamentally, they see Ukraine joining NATO as an existential threat just as America saw missiles in Cuba in the early 60’s. The cynical project of using Ukraine and their people as a battleground to weaken, fragment or even defeat Russia has failed. Is this why there’s panic within UK and EU leadership? Given the failure of overseas conflicts since WW2 why are our leaders so obsessed with war?
December 15, 2025
So given the state of play it seems even more incredible that the government prioritses wellfair
Good article thanks John
December 15, 2025
So we offer asylum here to those fleeing war, yet expect our children to be conscripted into the army to fight in a foreign conflict? How does that make sense? There’s no way young British people will accept conscription. Send back the daily invaders to fight their own wars.
December 15, 2025
Our guard is down with Labour. They seem more likely to increase spending on white flags as a means of achieving cost efficiency on defence.
December 15, 2025
Fly your Palestinian with impunity, tear down the Union flag.
December 15, 2025
The UK has been most effective, militarily, when sticking to a maritime strategy, avoiding continental engagements with very large armies. Instead, as the Peninsula War demonstrated, an expeditionary strategy worked very effectively. The role of the RN in the Crimean war in the mid 19thC is grossly underestimated, though not I suspect by the Baltic states.
Starmer obviously is clueless about this as he is about just everything else he touches. But everything begins, as you point out, with the protection of these islands and the wherewithal to build it. On this latter subject the majority of the political class is living in cloud cuckoo land.
December 15, 2025
The UK boss of defence.. In his first lecture at the Royal United Services Institute, Sir Richard is expected to warn: “I find myself in a position that none of my predecessors during my career have faced, looking at the prospect of the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War.”
Yet the UK Parliament by every measure is reducing defence spending. The pseudo rises are for the unessarary give away of the Chagos etc. Nothing going on men or formal defence equipment. The MOD civil service saw an income and pension boost.
However, 2TK has said if he wins the next election he will spend our taxpayer money on defence that he previously promised to do
December 15, 2025
The problem is that Starmer, Reeves, Lammy, Miliband and the rest of this pathetic Government would rather increase welfare payments than pay a soldier, sailor or airman to defend the UK.
The Labour Government of third raters is inadequate, shortsighted, lacks vision, does not understand the real world, and are fighting like rats in a sack. It seems the dictators of this world are growing stronger as the UK grows weaker.
But the day of reckoning is coming, whether financial or a revolt by the people.
What they do speaks so loudly, I can’t hear what they say!
December 15, 2025
“The price of peace is rising” is an excellent headline IMHO today.
Nothing is free and Defence of our freedoms has been failed by this government and allowed to run down to pass on to successors headaches.
While strutting around the world pretending to be a world leader, Starmer is all show yet is so out of touch and out of his depth on our domestic problems let alone on our threadbare defence capability.
He is seen as a weak puppet by any measures by our enemies and our allies too.
December 15, 2025
“first task which the government still has not done is to draw up a list of capabilities” that is a recurring get out used by Parliament, let’s review not do!
Just as with the % against GDP is a fudge, twenty years of backsliding as left the UK in an abysmal situation, that measurement is no longer valid.
December 15, 2025
Sadly 6.5% of the UK & Europe will be celebrating today
December 15, 2025
The right here and now, hitting the media and Kemi Badenoch speaking out against the indefensible. The Ed Miliband as an individual and also Labour sponsor put the ‘Bondi Beach’ massacre
‘Netanyahu wants antisemitism to be a thing’
Kevin Hollinrake, the Tory party chairman, called the remarks “disgraceful”. He wrote on X: “Any language that excuses or legitimises terrorism gives extremists cover and undermines our values.”
NutZero left wing zealots all sick together like glue especially when money is concerned.
December 15, 2025
Confirming the TwoTiers of Labour’s New UK. Handover the money, get rewarded by 2TK with an OBE then you can say what you like. Welcome to the Marxist World of Starmer
December 15, 2025
You also have to ask how come those that get taxpayer handouts to cause their business to survive have money to splash around on socialist idealism. Get to fund those against the UK with taxpayer money?
December 15, 2025
The other thing that springs to mind when having a discussion about defence is the stuff Dom Cummings has said. He spent a lot of time looking at the detail, and was horrified to find the amount of money wasted in the nuclear deterrent budgets, and sums hidden from scrutiny as “secret”, for poor results. He thought they had cancelled Ajax, as it was obvious even then it was belly up, but it got started again as soon as he lost his job at number 10. He did make a number of mistakes like throwing public money at satellite tech. His view that all money for tanks should be stopped and put into drones was a bit extreme, and does not take account of all issues. It is a shame that UK public life has so few people prepared to discuss things in these ways.
It is interesting to see Chris Parry stand as a politician (for Reform), a lot of what he says on these things makes sense, one of them being the threat we face from immigration, those on the terror watch list, and so on.
December 15, 2025
The Russians have long distance “torpedoes” (not really traditional torpedoes as they can travel vast distances and navigate precisely complicated journeys), which are nuclear armed. They can be fired remotely from far far away to attack any coastal city. We should probably have better defences against these in place. At least with ICBM’s we get a few minutes warning, with such undersea weapons it is likely the first we would know would be when it exploded.
December 15, 2025
The warning about ICBMs is practically useless, they will arrive anyway. The UK has virtually no defence except perhaps a Type 45 destroyer off the Essex coast. The defence against these torpedoes is the same, MAD.
Russia is a nuisance, but at the moment the greater danger is a foreign hostile army enticed in with lavish benefits, growing every day.
December 15, 2025
yea I know, I am just trying to make John aware that even an “iron dome” protecting London from ICBM’s would not stop the Russians blowing London off the map if they really wanted.
December 15, 2025
52 ‘unknows’ invaded the UK yesterday
December 15, 2025
Sadly Australia is starting to worry about who they have let in.
December 15, 2025
Our country is being invaded already, by thousands of illegals some prepared to use violence against our citizens, but you, Lord John, do not appear to notice. You talk instead about Russia and Ukraine, only to conclude (rightly) that we shouldn’t get involved over there. So that leaves one thing missing in your piece: the enemy.
The defence of this country begins at Dover. If our military is not prepared to repel this invasion, what is it good for, and why are we paying for it?
December 15, 2025
clough,
correct, and its worse than that because the British state prints visas for people who hate us to come here too.
its a real shame the political and ruling classes dont “get it”.
it is not going to end well.
December 15, 2025
Agree
December 15, 2025
Very well argued. It also seems to me that the NATO war is trying out weapons and is rather pleased with the results. The figure of a million dead Russians has been given and the EU and its hanger on Starmer are urging ever more. How does that fit with their disgusting treatment of Israel?
Generals and military experts tell us the Russians are in a bad way and haven’t got to Kiev in four years. Then in the next breath they tell us the Russians will soon by right across Europe. Well, which is it?
December 15, 2025
As I see it the urgency is to deal with China and the islamists. They don’t seem to worry HMG or the EU in the slightest
December 16, 2025
the UK ruling classes have shut down local industry and replaced it with imports from China and India, they are obviously pro those countries more than any affection for the UK.