Beware the bond vigilantes

Yesterday the thirty year borrowing rate surged to 5.6%. Its one day spike worst level under Truss was just 4.8%, so Reeves has pushed it up by 17% on a rate she said had crashed the economy.

The ten year rate hit 4.6% compared to the 4.38% highest one day spike under Truss.

The latest borrowing figures showed another surge in last month’s borrowing. Debt interest charges are over £100 bn a year and growing. The debt is high and growing too fast.

The Chancellor needs to take urgent action to control spending. Forget giving billions to Mauritius over the years ahead. Veto all new charges to be imposed by the EU for re set. Tell the DWP to be firmer in evaluating new claims for benefits and to issue fewer sicknotes for life. Reinstate the two child cap. Raise the future pension age for state pension. Cut the absurdly high Bank of England, railway and steel losses.

The Chancellor now has a spendthrift reputation in the markets. The UK is being charged higher rates than most Advanced countries as a risk premium or extra levy because the government is not trusted to run the finances prudently. It is no good the Chancellor constantly claiming prudence and doing the opposite. The markets have formed a bad view and are making the UK pay a lot extra as a result.

The OBR does not provide discipline over the deficit as its control relates to the distant fifth year of its forecast. It is a rolling target so Year 5 never comes!

26 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    March 21, 2026

    Exactly.

    The doomloop spins ever more quickly as this appalling government (and the dire list of potential post May Starmer replacements Rayner favourite then Streeting and Miliband) keep further damaging the economy and confidence every single day.

    They have no chance of power after the next election and so will surely take a scorched earth policy for the next three years they have already started it seems.

    Reply
    1. Peter
      March 21, 2026

      Again, I cannot see Reeves or the government changing course.

      They will continue to be spendthrift.

      Reply
      1. Lifelogic
        March 21, 2026

        Spendthrift, doom-loop, scorched earth, net zero vandals – 3+ more years!

        Reply
      2. Lifelogic
        March 21, 2026

        The good news is is there is so much fat that could so easily be cut. Net zero, benefits for the feckless, Chagos, bloated government, taking real advantage of Brexit, cutting immigration, drill baby drill and frack amd mine and the win, win of bonfires of red tape, easy hire and fire and lower tax rates actually giving more revenue.

        The bad news is their agenda is the complete reverse of all these!

        Reply
      3. Peter Wood
        March 21, 2026

        Yup, we’re in the realm of socialist dogma trumps economic common-sense. Starmer/Reeves are not in control anyway, the cadre’s on the benches appear to hold the power and they want the ‘state to provide’, damn the markets.
        Trump is moving Marines and close air support aircraft into theatre, (no boots on the ground my a..e!) so unless there’s a capitulation from the IRGC, or Trump gets too many irate calls from the banks, then we’re going to be in this ‘interesting times’ for a while yet. Costs to rise, and the conflict draws in more participants.

        Reply
      4. oldwulf
        March 21, 2026

        @Peter

        It seems that Labour has realised that it might be economically incompetent and is indeed looking to make changes.

        https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/20/ministers-blueprint-economic-overhaul-fears-cost-of-living-hand-election-far-right

        ….but which of those changes will be primarily politically motivated before they are economically motivated ?

        Reply
      5. Lynn Atkinson
        March 21, 2026

        Then there will be an almighty crash.

        Reply
  2. Andrew Jones
    March 21, 2026

    Things are certainly not good but debt rocketeted under Sunak as Chancellor and PM – only need to look at a 10 year GILT chart. Labour are indeed hapless and have confounded any problems but they were left a difficult fiscal premise..

    Reply
    1. Jazz
      March 21, 2026

      Indeed they were.
      Do you think they have made the situation better or worse?

      Reply
  3. Lifelogic
    March 21, 2026

    I listened to a bit of radio 4 news yesterday too suddenly they seem very excited about all the damage that will be done to the UK by high oils and gas prices, high fertiliser costs, plastics, interest rates, farming problems… now that they can blame these high prices on Trump they seem keen on lower energy costs.

    I would remind them that energy costs in the UK are circa four times those in the US due mainly to insane net zero and mad energy policies from the last 20+ years of UK governments and May and Miliband in particular, the fracking, mining and drilling bans and vast over taxation and market rigging – all of which the BBC is a huge supporter of and propagandiser for!

    Reply
    1. IanT
      March 21, 2026

      Yes, everything can now be blamed on Iran (and Trump) – so we will now get endless “Fourteen years of Tory Rule and the Gulf War…” everytime a Labour Minister or MP opens their mouth.
      Nothing to do with us Guv!

      Reply
  4. Donna
    March 21, 2026

    I wonder why the Bank of England isn’t conspiring to bring this Government down, the way it did Truss?
    Let me guess ….

    “Andrew Bailey, the current Governor of the Bank of England (since March 2020), chaired the Left-leaning Cambridge Fabian Society while a student at Queens’ College, Cambridge.”

    Well bless my soul. Who could possibly have suspected that?

    Two-Tier, Reeves, Mad Red Ed and Bailey, all Fabians who are jointly creating the mother of all economic crashes.

    Reply
  5. Donna
    March 21, 2026

    Gridwatch 7am – Energy supply:

    Gas: 36%
    Inter-connectors: 30%
    Nuclear: 16%
    Biomass (trees): 12%
    Wind: 6%
    Solar: 0%
    https://gridwatch.co.uk/

    And the conclusion for the Eco nutters in the Establishment: We obviously need to import and massively subsidise far more windmills and solar panels.

    No wonder the country’s effectively bankrupt.

    Reply
    1. Lifelogic
      March 21, 2026

      Indeed bonkers. For bio think young coal about 2 times less efficient than old coal and far more environmentally damaging too. Loads of fossil fuels used to harvest, transport, dry…

      Reply
    2. Lifelogic
      March 21, 2026

      On BBC 1 just now was a chap (who would make an excellent grim reaper for a movie. It seems he is Bill Esterson MP, Chair of the Energy Security and Net Zero Select Committee. He was wittering on about Solar cells and home batteries and charging them up at low rates and using it at high.

      He read maths at Leeds and then become an accountant so one might have thought he would have been good at working out finance costs, depreciation etc. When you do this with the energy losses in charge discharge cycles, finance costs and depreciation per charge discharge cycle make this rather a mugs game. As to solar you get the energy during the day in summer and largely we need it in the dark cold winters. Storing for 6 months is a total non starter!

      But dream on mate! A battery to hold £1 of electricity will likely cost you £1000 all in and might only do 1000 cycles (thus storing and releasing only about £1000 of electricity) before it is virtuallyworthless. Plus you loose circa 25% in the charge discharge process, the loss of interest on the capital or borrowing costs, depreciation… it very rarely makes any sense at all. Plus you have the extra fire risk and insurance issues…

      Reply
      1. Lifelogic
        March 21, 2026

        Battery plus all the electronics (inverters and AC/DC converters) needed!

        Reply
  6. Rod Evans
    March 21, 2026

    The markets are doing what markets will always eventually do, they are pricing in risk. The mark to market principle of valuing has started to impact the UKs asset worth/future security risk to investors,
    Reeves has failed to convince even the most optimistic investor the UK is a safe long term bet. When her colleague Ed Miliband continues to destroy industry and her boss continues to flip flop about, who believes in Britain? With no sign of any strategy to return the UK to its rightful place as a key member of NATO and a key nation in world affairs, London is no longer seen as the seat of stability it once was.
    Once the market becomes spooked, there is a very short period before money loses its value. The experience of the German currency crisis a hundred years ago looms large and is real.
    Go long on barrows.

    Reply
    1. Dave Andrews
      March 21, 2026

      Perhaps a good time to invest in second hand government bonds. When they mature, you don’t pay tax on your capital gain, and if the government defaults you can claim it against your tax demand.

      Reply
  7. Steve Bullion
    March 21, 2026

    Truss got labelled a heretic and removed before her policies could take effect. Labour still blame her for certain aspects of our gloomy prospects, but labour have been 100 times worse….. Why haven’t the market forces got rid of this government in the unholy way that Truss was removed?

    Truss would have achieved a lot better results than the amateurs now sitting in government.

    There is only one direction this government is taking us and it’s not towards a land of milk and honey – they have failed to learn from history – they really should be forced to read The Wealth of Nations, by Adam Smith to get an idea of what they should be doing.

    Reply
    1. Dave Andrews
      March 21, 2026

      The Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng was just to reduce taxes in the hope it might stimulate the economy. What was needed alongside was a reduction in spending. Without that, there was no confidence in the policy.
      Not good enough.

      Reply
    2. IanT
      March 21, 2026

      Apparently the Adam Smith Institute has produced a comic book version of the Wealth of Nations.
      I wonder who they had in mind when they did that?

      Reply
  8. Stephen Sharp
    March 21, 2026

    When you say ‘Reinstate the two child cap’ don’t you think Jacob Rees-Mogg should have set an example and used some form of contraception.

    Reply The two child cap is about benefits, not about having children. Anyone can have more children and should be able to do so ,but if you want a lot then you should pay for them yourself as Jacob Rees Mogg does.

    Reply
  9. Rodney Needs
    March 21, 2026

    Same old circle Labour drive up debt then who comes next has to bring in austerity

    Reply
  10. William Long
    March 21, 2026

    Do l hear the galloping hooves of the IMF not fat over the horizon?

    Reply
  11. Bella
    March 21, 2026

    The difference is Truss did the damage all by herself whereas Reeves has done it by not foreseeing such a thing as a Middle East war might happen – she failed to pay attention to the signs and scouts motto. On the other hand we know the coffers were already empty – a

    lot of big projects should have been scrapped or at least postponed

    Reply Untrue. Bank bond sales and LDI for Truss. Reeves big increases in spending and borrowing are undermining her.

    Reply
  12. Christine
    March 21, 2026

    The future looks bleak at the moment. The high cost of energy, coupled with the introduction of more AI, is going to increase unemployment drastically. The job losses will cause a domino effect across all sectors. This Government needs to take drastic action before it’s too late. Drill our own gas and oil. Deport all foreign nationals not in meaningful employment. Cut wasteful Government spending. Get a grip on the spiralling welfare bill. Currently, they are caught in the headlights, unable to govern and trying to please their own backbenchers and sponsors. The sooner they are brought down, like Truss was, the better. The only thing that has a chance to save us is a Reform government.

    Reply

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