Pakistan managed to delay the threatened intensification of the US/Israel/Iran war. A very worried and angry President Trump accepted the ten point plan as part of another negotiation. That ten point plan is said to include Iran controlling and charging for use of the Straits, US withdrawal from Middle Eastern bases and US promises against future military intervention. It is unclear what the US gets in return without seeing language on the nuclear issue which began the conflict. Presumably the US will still argue for its rather different fifteen point plan. The US can claim it has destroyed a lot of Iran’s military capacity to do more harm.
If a final deal does indeed deliver control of the Straits to Iran and allow them to levy a tax or charge on shipping, that is an important win for Iran. It is also another cost and risk to business in the Middle East. It is clearly a big improvement on the current defacto position of no western cargo getting through and major disruption of Asian supplies. The US presumably rejects the Iranian demand to pay them reparations but high levies on trade is a form of doing that.
What do you think Trump should do now? Can both sides credibly claim a win as they wish to do?
April 8, 2026
Does not sound like much of a deal for the USA or the rest of the west for that matter ?
April 8, 2026
Talk is better than War so it’s a start, I bet Putin and his cronies are now having second thoughts as to invading more land seeing the might of the USA in action , also Starmer and his merry men seeing the war as to a distraction to the mess he’s making in the U.K. and local elections just around the corner, I see Oil prices have plunged following Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran, with crude oil dropping from $117 to $93 per barrel – offering welcome relief to drivers, now let’s see these money grabbing leeches reduce the fuels as quickly as they put it up I won’t hold my breath
April 8, 2026
Trump should resign, before he starts WW3. And if he doesn’t, his Cabinet should invoke the 25th Amendment. The man is clearly suffering from a mental illness
April 8, 2026
This isn’t finished yet. It may kick off again. Trump in a corner is more unpredictable than ever. But to answer your questions briefly…
Trump and the US are no longer credible actors. They make a pretence of negotiation and then they or their associates assassinate their interlocutors. Indeed they have not been the prime actors in this war: as Rubio stated, the Israelis started it and the US felt compelled to follow.
The US has lost not just lost its diplomatic credibility, but also its military credibility. In an era of asymmetric warfare it is unable to defeat a smaller adversary (already proven by the Houthis) , or protect its allies (proven in this war). It can still project huge destructive force, but that is not always enough to impose its diplomatic objectives.
The question is not so much what Trump should do (spin his defeat as some sort of victory, stop killing people, withdraw US from the ME, prepare to be prosecuted), but what the Iranians can do. They can survive.
This means they can continue to be a restraint on Israeli aims to become the regional hegemon, charge (with Oman) ships to use the Gulf, and rebuild.
If they have any sense they will develop a nuclear ICBM asap, the same as most medium sized powers around the world will now do. The North Korean approach has been vindicated. With a nuclear armed Likud Israel as a rival the Iranians need a deterrent, fast.