Pakistan managed to delay the threatened intensification of the US/Israel/Iran war. A very worried and angry President Trump accepted the ten point plan as part of another negotiation. That ten point plan is said to include Iran controlling and charging for use of the Straits, US withdrawal from Middle Eastern bases and US promises against future military intervention. It is unclear what the US gets in return without seeing language on the nuclear issue which began the conflict. Presumably the US will still argue for its rather different fifteen point plan. The US can claim it has destroyed a lot of Iran’s military capacity to do more harm.
If a final deal does indeed deliver control of the Straits to Iran and allow them to levy a tax or charge on shipping, that is an important win for Iran. It is also another cost and risk to business in the Middle East. It is clearly a big improvement on the current defacto position of no western cargo getting through and major disruption of Asian supplies. The US presumably rejects the Iranian demand to pay them reparations but high levies on trade is a form of doing that.
What do you think Trump should do now? Can both sides credibly claim a win as they wish to do?
April 8, 2026
Does not sound like much of a deal for the USA or the rest of the west for that matter ?
April 8, 2026
It sound like capitulation to me if the US accepts these terms. The Mad Mullahs still in charge and blackmail to transit the Straights. No doubt pipelines will be hurriedly built to the Red Sea but that will limit tanker size through the suez or have the Houthis attacking entry to the Indian Ocean.
Not much to show for the amount of ordinance used
An interstellar point off topic, some German windfarms are coming to the end of their subsidy period. Many are proposing to shut down because at 3.9c per killowat they have become enviable due to operational and maintenance costs
Another blow to milibrains assertion that wind is cheapest.
April 8, 2026
‘ Can both sides credibly claim a win as they wish to do?’
They already have made such claims. Credibility is another matter.
Whether the peace holds is anybody’s guess. Allegedly gulf states were targeted after the ceasefire, as were targets in south Lebanon.
Breathing time for US/Israel to rebuild stocks of armaments. Trump may assess any political damage he has suffered or may encounter. His US political opponents may push harder for actions against him.
April 8, 2026
Talk is better than War so it’s a start, I bet Putin and his cronies are now having second thoughts as to invading more land seeing the might of the USA in action , also Starmer and his merry men seeing the war as to a distraction to the mess he’s making in the U.K. and local elections just around the corner, I see Oil prices have plunged following Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran, with crude oil dropping from $117 to $93 per barrel – offering welcome relief to drivers, now let’s see these money grabbing leeches reduce the fuels as quickly as they put it up I won’t hold my breath
April 8, 2026
Trump should resign, before he starts WW3. And if he doesn’t, his Cabinet should invoke the 25th Amendment. The man is clearly suffering from a mental illness
April 8, 2026
So you’d rather se the Mad Mullahs with a bomb which they wouldn’t hesitate to use.
April 8, 2026
Oil plunges after US-Iran ceasefire and deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Well done Trump with the pathetic invisible Starmer not even initially letting him use our bases, continuing with doom loop economics, the net zero lunacy, huge open door low skilled & net cost immigration levels and muttering about international law.
He is also right on the net zero hoax, drill baby drill, freedom of speech, controlling borders, the net harm Covid vaccines and you do have to admire his self effacing modesty.
Perhaps it is Mr Gold who is suffering from the Net Zero delusion religion and Trump derangement?
April 8, 2026
This isn’t finished yet. It may kick off again. Trump in a corner is more unpredictable than ever. But to answer your questions briefly…
Trump and the US are no longer credible actors. They make a pretence of negotiation and then they or their associates assassinate their interlocutors. Indeed they have not been the prime actors in this war: as Rubio stated, the Israelis started it and the US felt compelled to follow.
The US has lost not just lost its diplomatic credibility, but also its military credibility. In an era of asymmetric warfare it is unable to defeat a smaller adversary (already proven by the Houthis) , or protect its allies (proven in this war). It can still project huge destructive force, but that is not always enough to impose its diplomatic objectives.
The question is not so much what Trump should do (spin his defeat as some sort of victory, stop killing people, withdraw US from the ME, prepare to be prosecuted), but what the Iranians can do. They can survive.
This means they can continue to be a restraint on Israeli aims to become the regional hegemon, charge (with Oman) ships to use the Gulf, and rebuild.
If they have any sense they will develop a nuclear ICBM asap, the same as most medium sized powers around the world will now do. The North Korean approach has been vindicated. With a nuclear armed Likud Israel as a rival the Iranians need a deterrent, fast.
April 8, 2026
Wanderer. You’re obviously a fan of a Theocracy threatening the world with its unhinged religious ideas which want to eliminate western nations.
Like him or loathe him, Trump sees the problem and was prepared to act. Israel is the bulwark against these crazy people.
April 8, 2026
The only logic one can find in how Trump will react is to listen to the reports by his niece, a Phd in clinical psychology; what he hates most is losing and being thought weak. To stop the fighting better tell him he’s won a great victory, damn the terms. The terms required by Iran are clearly terrible, were going to have to pay a lot more for goods through the Straits, or find a different route. Iran keeps the enriched plutonium so the risk to the world may well be worse now.
April 8, 2026
This deal does not seem acceptable. It’s like something the EU would come up with. Maybe Trump is showing the West and other Gulf states that he has to finish the job. I’d expect Trump to attack before the end of the two weeks.
April 8, 2026
Trump needs to stop running a war by media and give the very welcome ceasefire negotiations a chance
Clearly the negotiations are going to be very difficult it would appear that Pakistani has been a good mediator
April 8, 2026
No doubt advisors told the EGO there will be many downed aircraft, dozens if not hundreds of returned body-bags to USA. And probably told now or never to claim some sort of victory.