Pakistan managed to delay the threatened intensification of the US/Israel/Iran war. A very worried and angry President Trump accepted the ten point plan as part of another negotiation. That ten point plan is said to include Iran controlling and charging for use of the Straits, US withdrawal from Middle Eastern bases and US promises against future military intervention. It is unclear what the US gets in return without seeing language on the nuclear issue which began the conflict. Presumably the US will still argue for its rather different fifteen point plan. The US can claim it has destroyed a lot of Iran’s military capacity to do more harm.
If a final deal does indeed deliver control of the Straits to Iran and allow them to levy a tax or charge on shipping, that is an important win for Iran. It is also another cost and risk to business in the Middle East. It is clearly a big improvement on the current defacto position of no western cargo getting through and major disruption of Asian supplies. The US presumably rejects the Iranian demand to pay them reparations but high levies on trade is a form of doing that.
What do you think Trump should do now? Can both sides credibly claim a win as they wish to do?
April 8, 2026
Does not sound like much of a deal for the USA or the rest of the west for that matter ?
April 8, 2026
It sound like capitulation to me if the US accepts these terms. The Mad Mullahs still in charge and blackmail to transit the Straights. No doubt pipelines will be hurriedly built to the Red Sea but that will limit tanker size through the suez or have the Houthis attacking entry to the Indian Ocean.
Not much to show for the amount of ordinance used
An interstellar point off topic, some German windfarms are coming to the end of their subsidy period. Many are proposing to shut down because at 3.9c per killowat they have become enviable due to operational and maintenance costs
Another blow to milibrains assertion that wind is cheapest.
April 8, 2026
‘ Can both sides credibly claim a win as they wish to do?’
They already have made such claims. Credibility is another matter.
Whether the peace holds is anybody’s guess. Allegedly gulf states were targeted after the ceasefire, as were targets in south Lebanon.
Breathing time for US/Israel to rebuild stocks of armaments. Trump may assess any political damage he has suffered or may encounter. His US political opponents may push harder for actions against him.
April 8, 2026
@David Peddy – reflect on the aims of the intervention, it was never about the USA they had nothing to gain. They don’t need the oil, the gas or need to use those international water ways.
Those that use the USA as their police, the US taxpayer to pay for their defence, are the only ones set to gain anything.
Love him or hate him POTUS is not the problem it is the Socialist Pariahs, usually unelected and unaccountable that are condition to sponging of others that will be crying if this leads to the USA receding behind its own borders….
April 8, 2026
Talk is better than War so it’s a start, I bet Putin and his cronies are now having second thoughts as to invading more land seeing the might of the USA in action , also Starmer and his merry men seeing the war as to a distraction to the mess he’s making in the U.K. and local elections just around the corner, I see Oil prices have plunged following Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran, with crude oil dropping from $117 to $93 per barrel – offering welcome relief to drivers, now let’s see these money grabbing leeches reduce the fuels as quickly as they put it up I won’t hold my breath
April 8, 2026
@Mick – I’d love that, but the leeches will see a chance to grab more, for themselves and their prolific ego’s. Those in working households are predicted to be around £900 worse of in 2026 due to increased taxes & charges, those not working are the net gainers. Even that is not the point, the removal of £900 is the removal of money from the economy, that £900 less spending and the direct crippling of a basket case that is paralysed. Having a Socialist Parliament means they will raise taxes thinking that alone is the economy.
April 8, 2026
Trump should resign, before he starts WW3. And if he doesn’t, his Cabinet should invoke the 25th Amendment. The man is clearly suffering from a mental illness
April 8, 2026
So you’d rather se the Mad Mullahs with a bomb which they wouldn’t hesitate to use.
April 8, 2026
@Ian Wragg – of course he would. Mental illness is closer to home
April 8, 2026
Oil plunges after US-Iran ceasefire and deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Well done Trump with the pathetic invisible Starmer not even initially letting him use our bases, continuing with doom loop economics, the net zero lunacy, huge open door low skilled & net cost immigration levels and muttering about international law.
He is also right on the net zero hoax, drill baby drill, freedom of speech, controlling borders, the net harm Covid vaccines and you do have to admire his self effacing modesty.
Perhaps it is Mr Gold who is suffering from the Net Zero delusion religion and Trump derangement?
April 8, 2026
I have still heard of no rational benefit from this £60bn Moon flyby. Someone on the BBC came up with smoke alarms as a spin off from Apollo. Note quite sure that the best way to develop “smoke particle in the air detectors” is to spend billions on moon missions and hope for a spin off. I can think of rather cheaper ways over 100 million times cheaper.
Still perhaps they will come up with something more positive than the millions of lives the cash cold have easily saved on Earth. I await with interest!
April 8, 2026
SG,
Trump will not resign. His cabinet are yes men. Any action would be from politicians on the outside.
April 8, 2026
This isn’t finished yet. It may kick off again. Trump in a corner is more unpredictable than ever. But to answer your questions briefly…
Trump and the US are no longer credible actors. They make a pretence of negotiation and then they or their associates assassinate their interlocutors. Indeed they have not been the prime actors in this war: as Rubio stated, the Israelis started it and the US felt compelled to follow.
The US has lost not just lost its diplomatic credibility, but also its military credibility. In an era of asymmetric warfare it is unable to defeat a smaller adversary (already proven by the Houthis) , or protect its allies (proven in this war). It can still project huge destructive force, but that is not always enough to impose its diplomatic objectives.
The question is not so much what Trump should do (spin his defeat as some sort of victory, stop killing people, withdraw US from the ME, prepare to be prosecuted), but what the Iranians can do. They can survive.
This means they can continue to be a restraint on Israeli aims to become the regional hegemon, charge (with Oman) ships to use the Gulf, and rebuild.
If they have any sense they will develop a nuclear ICBM asap, the same as most medium sized powers around the world will now do. The North Korean approach has been vindicated. With a nuclear armed Likud Israel as a rival the Iranians need a deterrent, fast.
April 8, 2026
Wanderer. You’re obviously a fan of a Theocracy threatening the world with its unhinged religious ideas which want to eliminate western nations.
Like him or loathe him, Trump sees the problem and was prepared to act. Israel is the bulwark against these crazy people.
April 8, 2026
IW,
The current Israeli government are ‘the crazy people’.
April 8, 2026
@Ian Wragg +1 – some, as with 2TK and the UK Parliament, just don’t see the bigger picture
April 8, 2026
The only logic one can find in how Trump will react is to listen to the reports by his niece, a Phd in clinical psychology; what he hates most is losing and being thought weak. To stop the fighting better tell him he’s won a great victory, damn the terms. The terms required by Iran are clearly terrible, were going to have to pay a lot more for goods through the Straits, or find a different route. Iran keeps the enriched plutonium so the risk to the world may well be worse now.
April 8, 2026
Leave Israel alone and Israel will leave you alone. The problem is that its neighbours don’t want to do that; so many consider it their purpose in life to deny every Israeli a foot on the earth. Israel occupies the Golan Heights because Syria used it as a vantage point to attack Israel and forfeited it.
April 8, 2026
W,
Yes. However, not just loss of diplomatic and military credibility.
The rest of the world will reassess the value of relying on the United States. The dollar will lose its role as a reserve currency. More trade will be made without the use of US dollars. With America such a huge debtor country, this will hurt its economy and undermine its role as the hegemon.
April 8, 2026
This deal does not seem acceptable. It’s like something the EU would come up with. Maybe Trump is showing the West and other Gulf states that he has to finish the job. I’d expect Trump to attack before the end of the two weeks.
April 8, 2026
Trump needs to stop running a war by media and give the very welcome ceasefire negotiations a chance
Clearly the negotiations are going to be very difficult it would appear that Pakistani has been a good mediator
April 8, 2026
I think you will find Trump and his forces did rather more than just Media. But good media in warfare is also vital.
April 8, 2026
No doubt advisors told the EGO there will be many downed aircraft, dozens if not hundreds of returned body-bags to USA. And probably told now or never to claim some sort of victory.
April 8, 2026
The can is kicked. Profits are taken on the markets and in two weeks we go again.
Having a country that can control a piece of water (unlike our ability with the channel) is a big problem for the world and Iran now knows it.
We are in deep do do until pipelines and factories are built bypassing the Straits.
Republican will be wiped out in the mid-terms, the US economy will continue to grow with little intervention (see the Obama years) and President Trump will make ever more outlandish social media posts as a lame duck in his last two years.
Pay the tribute to Iran and start building.
April 8, 2026
It does mean, the UK Parliament, the Government, through the good offices of Rachel Reeves can now charge all vessels passing through the International waters of the English channel they right to levy a transit tax?
Although the problem is as of now, those that would be policing it can now ‘work from home’
April 8, 2026
He should keep talking – he has an enormous capacity for negotiation and he has a team skilled in all aspects of getting a good deal.
Clearly he doesn’t want to keep on bombing Iran into submission. If he’d been as manic as some have portrayed him he wouldn’t have stopped sending the big bombs.
That doesn’t mean he should ease the pressure on Iran – it’s vital they are kept in no doubt that Trump will win and Middle Eastern friends will no doubt be encouraged to help keep the pressure up in whichever way is possible.
The one vital thing he must achieve is giving the people of Iran enough of an opening such that they can also be involved in running the new Iran.
April 8, 2026
The situation is classic no compromise with the infidels Iranian Islamic culture. They have only accepted a set of condition for cease fire that endorses their own wants and ideals there is no compromise, no acknowledgement of the right of Israel to exist and prosper in peace. There is no acceptance that nuclear enrichment must cease, the wishy washy comment about not owning nuclear weapons does not prevent a proxy owning nuclear weapons designed and made by Iran. That proxy could be Pakistan or whoever.
The Iranian push to formally control the straights of Hormuz is where the thing will flounder. That strategic waterway must always be free to traverse by all nations. It must never be in the control of the most dangerous Islamic authority yet to emerge in the Middle East.
We should welcome the cease fire and hope it builds into a meaningful permanent arrangement for peace in the region. Iran does not need to enrich uranium when Russia has offered to supply all of its needs for civilian nuclear power. That offer from an ally of Iran was rejected by the previous Ayatollah. Let us hope the new incumbent where ever he is has a wiser attitude to world concerns….
April 8, 2026
Cynical old me thinks that these two weeks will allow Trump to prepare properly for a ground invasion, something which had not been done when this war kicked off at the end of February – just as the then negotiations had come to a conclusion agreed to by both sides but not yet ratified ….
April 8, 2026
What of the 30,000+ protestors killed by the government of Iran ….who’s helping them, the bully has been slapped but not stopped
April 8, 2026
I think there needs to be underground pipelines laid to circumvent Iran’s dominance of the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi’s dominance of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The pipelines need to run from the Gulf through friendly countries ie: Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel out to the Mediterranean Sea. There is already a 4 million barrel per day pipeline through Saudi to the Red Sea but the capacity is insufficient and it does not circumvent the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
The elimination of all shipping costs and the removal of Iran’s jackboot on 20% of the global oil supply would be a very welcome outcome.
April 8, 2026
I just fail to see this deal lasting
April 8, 2026
Well Trump might have accepted Iranian control and charging for access through, but err….his tankers don’t go through. What do all the countries who do use the 2 mile wide shipping lane think of this?
Of course Trump assumes what he agrees will be accepted.
When the next tanker gets hit what will Trump do about it?
April 8, 2026
I thought the actual or implicit war aims were to, once and for all, stop uranium enrichment and Iran’s sponsorship of global terrorism – which can only be achieved by toppling the current regime. It’s difficult to see either being achieved now. Looks like Iran will prevail as things stand.
April 8, 2026
Anyone who has read Lord Alanbrooke’s War Diaries will be aware of his very low opinion of the strategic abilities of the American High Command, and it would appear that they have learnt nothing over the years since. How did it escape them that control over the Straits of Hormuz put the Persians in a very strong position indeed in a world with major dependence on Middle Eastern oil? Or perhaps Mr Trump just shut his ears. I think now that any outcome that restores free navigation of the straits will be a success for Mr Trump, but quite possible not an achievable one.
What Mr Trump has now managed to do by his threats and bombing, is to establish support for the new military dictatorship in Tehran. At the outset, in what looked like a limited attempt to destroy military and perhaps nuclear hardware, I supported Mr Trump’s actions; I never thought assassinating the Ayatollah was likely to bring down the religious regime; it was too hydra-headed, and what has replaced it is arguably worse.
Ironically we have the wherewithal in this country to make the Straits of Hormuz more or less irrelevant to us, but a Government that is too stupid and pig headed to allow that to happen.