Markets are very sanguine about the US/Israel/Iran/Hezbollah wars. They seem to assume that both the US and Iran need to come to a deal, that Israel will accept US pressure to do so, and Hezbollah/Houthi forces will come to heel. This is despite Iran an the US remaining a long way apart on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and enhanced uranium, on the policing and charges for passage through the Straits, the extent of Iran’s drone and missile capacity, and the US bases and military action in the region.
Both sides stress their strengths and their ability to carry on with a resumed war. The US can bomb more things in Iran, can blockade Iranian ports and could threaten to use specialist forces for raids or for seizing small areas of land. Iran can get re supplied with drones and missiles to threaten the US and her allies, and can use her mobile small forces to stop shipping in the Straits. Iran has proved her point that despite the US destroying much of Iran’s conventional force and killing her old leaders, the country can still continue and can remain a threat with her asymmetric warfare whilst the US has shown her capacity to dominate conventional warfare.
So will Pakistan be able to keep them talking to broker a peace? What is the acceptable answer for the US on re opening the Straits, reining in Iran’s terrorist allies and curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What does Iran intend to get over the relaxation of sanctions, the imposition of tolls on the Straits and guarantees of no further US military intervention?
A resumption of hostilities and or a failure to re open the Straits to western ships means big issues over shortages of oil, gas, and various important chemicals. That way lies more inflation , less activity and some rationing.
April 22, 2026
Good morning.
Like Ukraine – Not our problem.
April 22, 2026
I agree it shouldn’t be. But like with Ukraine, we are a belligerent. We’re giving arms and money directly to Ukraine, and letting the US use our airspace, faclities/leased bases and intel in their war. We’re as complicit as the Gulf states.
April 22, 2026
‘ What would be a good settlement in the Middle East?’
Short term or long term?
Short term – back to how things were before US/Israel started the war.
Unfortunately, from his Truth Social posts, Trump now appears to be unhinged and not really fit to be president.
Israeli politics is driven by a hardline, genocidal party that is intent on expansion into the West Bank, Lebanon etc.
Long term, the USA is now in decline and other nations will rise. The stranglehold Israel has on American foreign policy is more fully exposed, as is the power of lobbies.
April 22, 2026
Unfortunately our PM has ensured it is our problem by his influence and willingness to fun that war and supply expertise – Just imagine if he hadn’t been whispering in Zelensky’s ear to persist that war would have been over long since.
April 22, 2026
The fighting may not be, the consequences are.
April 22, 2026
@Mark B agreed
But, No10 its spokes people have stated the UK shouldn’t change its leader or government while they are needed because of the ‘war’ as the call it.
April 22, 2026
It is our problem, because so much of our economy depends on sucking the Persian Gulf teat. Our fault for allowing it to happen and disregarding the implications of the 1970s oil crisis for so long. France built a chain of nuclear power stations whilst the UK went for the cheapest short term solution.
April 22, 2026
Well, you’re not wrong except for that the powers that be completely refuse to govern in a way that would reduce the impact. I dare say the energy secretary would be ok with shortages and rationing.
April 22, 2026
A good outcome would be an Iran which is incapable of developing a nuclear weapon and preferably with the Ayatollah/Mullahs out of power.
If we then ship out all the Iranians who have forced their way into our country over the last few years and have been tolerated by the Establishment as they threaten and attack us, then so much the better.
April 22, 2026
The never ending war. Basically Islam versus the West. Most people aren’t aware of the threat posed by radical Islam, especially the so called Greens and the Alphabet brigade. As with Stalins Russia, they would be the first to be silenced.
Trump and Bibi are all too aware of the problem and it’s difficult to see a suitable outcome with the Ayatollahs remaining incharge.
I feel sorry for the majority of Iranians who just want to get on with their lives. They are a clever and resourceful nation wanting much the same as we in the west. It was a beautiful country before the revolution, let’s hope that can be the case again.
Then we have the problem of Saudi Arabia financing the spread of their creed world wide.
April 22, 2026
Very well put. I have lived and worked in Muslim countries, their attitude to a ‘deal’ is not the same as in the west. It’s kept only so long as it’s useful, and cheating an infidel counterparty wins accolades. I’m surprised the Trump people don’t know this.
April 22, 2026
Agree that Iran was, and still could be, one of the most advanced nations in the region. Saudi Arabia seem to be going a bit cool on sports promotions.
April 22, 2026
The US could start the war, but the ending of the war is not in their gift. Too many involved, and theprism through which we look is very different to that which Iran, Hezbollah and Israel look.
April 22, 2026
The day before Israel and the US attacked with the aid of gulf and western states, Iran had offered a significant improvement on the JCPOA. The Straight was open. No tolls.
That was the “best” deal on offer. Israel doesn’t want any deal, so it attacked and scuppered it. The US establishment is too beholden to Israeli influence (ideological, monetary, possibly blackmail) to control its “ally”.
There is no deal available now unless Iran gets most of what it wants: a civilian nuclear programme monitored in the same way all non-proliferation signatories are, the ability to trade its oil and other products, the unfettered right to defend itself and support its allies. On that last point before saying “terrorists and proxies” compare the west supporting Zelensky’s regime in Ukraine against Russian invasion with Iran supporting Hezbollah’s resistance to Israel’s invasion of south Lebanon.
The US is desparate to get out of this mess, for which it and the Israelis are to blame. Unless it stands up to Israel it won’t get out of it alone. It will need China coming to its rescue (probably not publicly, though who knows) with a deal acceptable to the Iranians. Even then, if Netenyahu’s continued freedom requires a state of war, war may continue.
April 22, 2026
The main issue is the nuclear bomb. The enriched uranium is said to be in a dangerous state under rubble and inaccessible. An agreement to remove it in a safe way under the supervision of the independent inspectorate and then putting it in a safe independent place would be a good settlement.
An agreement to open the Straits on both sides and to remove mi es on the Omani side would also be good.
And no reparations money for Iran.
April 22, 2026
A deal will surely be done as it is in everyone’s interests to have the straits open. Let us hope, for the sake of the people Iranians that the government of Iran involves rather fewer mad religious leaders and evil murderers. But then the UK is rather heading in that direction with Two Tier Kier, the Greens and the Islamophobia.
The future belongs to those who show up after all.
Many in Iran will doubtless feel this fear is not remotely irrational.
April 22, 2026
So only 50% of young British would fight for their country. Rather understandable, after all is there any point in defending a country that has open borders, two Tier Justice, appallingly organised and run defences and cannot even stop rubber dinghies or deport foreign criminals or terrorists. Plus you might get sued multiple times in your retirement by Starmer’s lawyers.
Join the Navy and see not the World but the repair dockyard!
So will World at One today point out that (contrary to the drivel) they broadcast yesterday Gas is actually a much cheaper than electricity today?
April 22, 2026
iran does not have a stable government to negotiate with, there are at least 50 factions. plus the fanatical religious extremists. so its not that easy.
April 22, 2026
A lot of questions… very hard top answer – My crystal ball is at the cleaners.
The optimum thing would be for the hostilities to stop, and perhaps Trump could offer some incentives that don’t involve bombs.
What should also be happening is that ME countries should be helping more by applying pressure and diplomacy.
April 22, 2026
But Keir Starmer is going to keep the Straits open, he announced that in Paris just the other day. So no problem. Odd he is saying he will deploy the UK military to ensure oil keeps flowing from Kuwait and Iraq while at the same time shutting down oil production from the North Sea.
April 22, 2026
An interesting use of propaganda to distort the general view about our navy.
The BBC had a documentary on the Queen Elizabeth, showing how mighty we are and how much power was at our disposal.
Seven years ago the ship went into New Yok harbour on a high profile visit.
It was far from a realistic view of our naval capabilities now, which showed very clearly how the BBC likes to mislead.
April 22, 2026
Given the hostilities towards their own people (sounds familiar) and its neighbours curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions is the main thrust.
Pakistan itself is not squeaky clean and ‘owns’ Iran’s nuclear direction, by at the end of the day facilitating Iran’s aspirations to build what could possibly be a nuclear bomb through their own nuclear scientist Abdul Kadir Khan.
The Worlds dilemma, nuclear energy good, nuclear bombs bad.
April 22, 2026
We the UK People could send Iran our Government, our Parliament even, they have know scruples when it comes to wreaking society and a nation on the back of personal ego and political religion.
April 22, 2026
President Trump has kicked a hornets’ nest here. It may have been better to just bomb and destroy the enrichment plants and halt the production of nuclear material rather than unleash Iran’s dominance of this piece of water.
Too late now and the Iranians now know they can hold the world to ransom.
The only solutions now are appeasement or boots on the ground. Neither is satisfactory but until a Suez type canal is built across Oman, UAE and Saudi we are in a position where we can be held to ransom.
Fortunately, health and safety rules do not delay construction in that part of the world so a canal might be built relatively quickly.
In the meantime drilling our own oil and gas with the proviso that it has to be sold in the UK (we can guarantee a price for renewables why can’t we do the same for oil and gas) seems to be an interim solution.
April 22, 2026
The discussions regarding the Middle East conflict are focused on some form of ‘deal’ between Iran and the USA. That is a very blinkered view of what is happening there and how it affects the wider world.
The USA is engaged in the conflict because Iran was very close to achieving Nuclear weapons. It already had the systems well developed and tested to deliver nuclear weapons once available.
The Israeli spy network and the Iranian resistance to the wider ambitions of the Islamic state of Iran, know what is at stake. If Iran is left to evolve its military reach via nuclear bombs, the existential threat to the entire world is real. There can be no settled peaceful existence for anyone if Iran continues down its expansive ambitions of militarising Islam, which has been their policy since 1979.
Only a complete removal of the theocratic policies and their fanatical Islamic ambition to spread their ideology across the world will stop the conflict.
The state of Israel knows the threat is real. It also knows the price will be is total annihilation if Iran is not stopped permanently from its stated cause and ambitions.
The USA knows if Israel is destroyed by nuclear attack, the Israelis have the capacity and ability to take absolute revenge and they will.
Moshe Dayan put the world on notice all those years ago as he looked down the camera lens when asked the question, what would happen if Israel’s existence was in danger….
The conflict can only end with a fully westernised none nuclear Iran.
April 22, 2026
It is outrageous that the UK is held hostage to international fuel prices when we have unused Gas supplies of our own in the North Sea. We need a Government that will release UK supplied Gas and use it in preference to imports.
April 22, 2026
Off Topic
‘Starmer orders Mandelson leak inquiry’ is that even right thin at this time. Worried about how everyone and the media had a different version than the narrative a lame duck leader wanted to push. Looking for someone to ‘blame’, deflection, while all the time the ‘Plan’ is thriving.
April 22, 2026
Meanwhile the ‘Plan’ has been ramped up further
‘Rachel Reeves says Britain must push for closer ties with Brussels as “we belong” in the European bloc.
The Chancellor insisted on Tuesday that the Iran war made it more important for the UK to align with EU rules to bring down inflation for households.’
energy costs, high prices all came about because of the action of Parliament and their Government, its Chancellor long before what is called the ‘Iran War’ a war we are told the UK is not involved in…. So it is the ‘Plan’ to the fore once more
April 22, 2026
Iran is certainly winning the propaganda war and is playing the long game against Trump. They simply have to survive and Donald has the mid-terms coming up. However the IRGC is not only a military and political organisation but also has it’s fingers deep into the Iranian economy. Loyalty has to be paid for, as do large proxie armies. Trump can’t invade Iran but he certainly can strangle it’s economy. Given time and some friendly support he can also open the Straights of Hormuz. It’s a game of poker with a lot of bluffing going on.
In the meanwhile, the Gulf war is providing economic cover for Reeves damaging tax regime & Millibands Net-Zero fanaticism.
April 22, 2026
There can be no ‘good settlement’ with the murderous, terrorist ruling regime in Iran. They murder their own people daily for having the temerity to protest. It is reported that over 40,000 have been executed this year and it continues. For some reason, politicians and MSM in this country ignore these atrocities. Any deal agreed with such people will be meaningless, as has been previously demonstrated.
April 22, 2026
On four occasions our host uses “her” to describe Iran. The Ayatollahs would be horrified.