This will be the last budget before the UK is an independent country again, if we end up with no deal. It is the time to set a new course. We need to be optimistic. We need to promote more growth and more enterprise. We need to grasp the ability of lower taxes to power prosperity. This should be the budget for prosperity, not austerity.
We need to cut Stamp duties, Capital Gains Tax, and Vehicle Excise duties as described before. Current rates reduce the tax take by deterring transactions.
We need to cut the rates of Income Tax from 20% to 18 % and from 45% to 40%.
We need to abolish VAT on Feminine hygiene products, green products and domestic fuel.
We need to boost spending on schools 10 % or more below the current national average per pupil amount.
We need to spend more on improving the road network.
We need to meet the costs of the planned increase in NHS spending, only releasing the money if there are good plans to spend it to raise the quality and quantity of care. We should remove car parking charges at hospitals from patients and visitors.
I read the Chancellor is going to cut business rates for smaller shops in High Streets, which is helpful.
All this can come from the £ 39 bn over the next three years we will save by not signing the penal Withdrawal Agreement.
There is £39 bn to spend over the next three years if we decline to sign the one sided Withdrawal Agreement. Thats a 2% boost to national income.
October 28, 2018
What about jacking HS2 also which will save £100bn over 10-15(?) years?
We definitely need a budget for business confidence and investment. Let’s also remember that cutting tariffs will be the equivalent of a tax cut, especially for low income households where food clothing and footwear make up a significant component of expenditure – and attract some of the highest tariffs.
October 28, 2018
Indeed cutting the common import tariff will improve living standards and our ability to compete. A bonfire of EU and UK red tape would be another win, win for all but the parasitic red tape bureaucrats and ‘consultants’. Going for cheap reliable energy and killing the greencrap subsidies another win, win. So much positive that could be done if we had a sensible PM and Chancellor.
I listened to Nick Robinson interviewing Mc Donnall in Political Thinking. He was given a very soft ride indeed. No answer at all to there is all the money coming from ‘Government’ (who of course have no money of their own) will invest in this and that and the other and no one will have to pay. No serious questioning of his insane economic agenda either.
Asked what is the greatest danger to the country he said Climate Change. What a complete dope he is. The obvious answer is Corbyn and Mc Donnall with their idiotic defence and economic policies another danger is the absurd expensive ‘renewables’ and greencrap religion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06pyy3l
etc ed
October 28, 2018
JR, you are not correct. The extortion sum is in addition to U.K. Assets. Tony Abbot, former Australian PM who traded on WTO terms, points this out in his article and it is clear to the world what he says is correct. You do not pay £100 billion for a trade deficit . What effing idiot would other than Hammond and May?
Hammond says judge him on his record! Really! Highest taxation in fifty years, works it into strivers, entrepreneurs, grafters and people homeless do the right thing who pay insurance for a, ariety of things. Hammond is discredited, he has discredited the Treasury a national resource, he has discredited the OBR and has a puppet in the BoE getting paid footballers wages. All fake forecasts and doom laden predictions are not worth the paper they are written on. Stupid comment to make by an incompetent chancellor who has wrecked the reputation of our country and national institutions.
October 28, 2018
Q1 to McDonnell should be: How will you raise taxes by £1 Trillion to avoid starting a run on GBP? https://order-order.com/2018/10/25/revealed-labours-manifesto-cost-1-trillion/
October 28, 2018
intended this reply to Lifelogic above.
October 28, 2018
How has Hammond helped the car industry and house market! Utter disaster while May falsely claims austerity at an end when the EU set a rate of 1.6 spending limit and she willingly follows their rules and budget limitations!
Structural deficit not balanced afte eight years, as promised and May claims fiscal competence under her! No on trusts May or Hammond. I fail to see why Tory MPs are not taking action against these looney tunes. May on a spending spree paid for by higher taxes!
October 28, 2018
The Tories would never ditch it, because it was part of the EU’s Trans-European Transport Networks project.
UKIP would drop HS2 as well as some other things that would upset Mr Hammond, such as:
• Inheritance Tax
• Stamp Duty
• Foreign Aid
• TV Licence
• EU membership
• Tuition Fees for STEM subjects
Which of the above two parties would you call “conservative”?
October 28, 2018
HS2 is needed infrastructure, causing development and associated optimism away from the usual SE/London centricity – it should not be compared with a bung to the EU. HS2 is about half the cost per mile of the London centric Crossrail project. (I agree there are questions to ask about the.management, salaries,and slow.delivery of HS2, but not the project itself).
The SE centriciy bias is also reflected in the Dover-Calais obsession of Brexit, rather than spending the past two years prepping the northern poets to have more routes into the UK and reduced road freight. Supporting Brexit and connecting the rest of the country are highly compatible, continued SE bias (ing the Oxford to Cambridge decelopments) lean much more towards the EU.
October 28, 2018
Ports not poets.
October 28, 2018
Do a bullet train or hyper loop between Leeds and Manchester instead. Cheaper and more use.
October 28, 2018
Richard1,
Specifically a hyper loop is not yet convincing, even though conceptually older than rail.
I have nothing against a thought through transport policy for the north. Bringing connected skilled populations together and above critical mass to attract businesses is a sensible approach. This is not instead of the North-Midland-South links (where capacity is needed, as is separating intercity passenger, local commute and freight) nor is it against expansion of NE ports, these are ‘ands’.
October 29, 2018
Twice the cost of an underground through London, when most of it is through open countryside at ground level! How on earth do they manage that, when the French build TGVs for a fifth of the cost? Perhaps because some idiot decided that his trainset had to go 50mph faster and the track has to be reinforced to counter ground waves. Why not change it to a freight line if all they want is capacity?
October 29, 2018
Sorry Half the cost. Still outrageous.
October 28, 2018
If you cared about business confidence and investment than you’d either scrap Brexit or pause it until you come up with coherent business friendly way of doing it. Which you won’t.
So, instead, you plough on with the bigger act of economic self harm in British history. The most business unfriendly policy ever. And you pretend it is businesses fault. It won’t work. We know who to blame.
October 28, 2018
Your rather silly & embarrassing rants are not borne out by the evidence. The economy continues to grow despite Mr Hammonds efforts to slow it, FDI is holding up and businesses are beginning to look to the potential of a free trading UK. Still some uncertainty I agree but much less than were we to be liable eg for the coming Italian bank bailout as you would like us to be.
October 28, 2018
Yawn. More lies. And, yes, they are LIES. Brexit is costing us £500m a week. Even the angry pensioners pay some of that bill. FDI has dried up. The economy has stalled. And business is telling you exactly what they think – and you think you know best. Let’s see how well that works out for your kids. Suffice to say they have good reason to hate you.
Reply I am not going to post more things from you if you attack pensioners, as readers find this unpleasant. It would also help if you applied some moderation and some facts to your contributions.
October 28, 2018
I find his hysterical and absurd rants quite useful, having been a floating voter on brexit – If this is what ardent remainers come up with there can’t be any good arguments & the country must have made the right decision.
The £500m pw figure above is of course nonsense and pulled out of thin air.
October 28, 2018
No, please be tolerant of Andy. I’m semi retired but not at all offended. He will forever be associated on this site with an erroneous judgement on most of what he spouts.
October 28, 2018
So much bitterness without a shred of evidence to back it up. The self-harming was joining the EEC in the first instance. Keep it up!
October 29, 2018
Jagman84
Give us some evidence so we can take you seriously
October 28, 2018
The final cost of HS2 “could exceed £90 billion”. But “as things currently stand, HS2 will connect with very little.” Connecting it into the existing network is a further £43Bn according to Sir John Armitt, Chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission. https://iea.org.uk/hs2-is-a-classic-case-of-the-sunk-costs-fallacy/
The economic justifications have morphed several times: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/28/hs2-over-budget-unpopular-unjustified-stop-pouring-billions/ “Then HS2 became all about capacity, with ministers claiming existing railways were “full”. But the line into Euston is one of London’s least overcrowded. If tackling overcrowding were the real priority, then other, more congested routes would get the investment first. Building an expensive new railway would also be the last resort. It is far more cost-effective to improve the capacity of existing infrastructure by running longer trains, improving signalling and using flexible pricing to smooth out demand.”
Digital signalling has great scope to increase Rail Network capacity at far lower cost, by increasing the maximum safe number of trains per hour: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/uk-trains-digital-signalling-railways-delays-times-speed-journeys-a8344616.html
October 28, 2018
Agreed
October 28, 2018
Our host identifies 3 high tax rates that are on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve:
Stamp Duty, CGT & VED.
Where reducing tax rates increases HMT’s tax receipts, this should be a no-brainer!(Reducing tax rates always boosts GDP growth & economic efficiency; a larger economy will more easily support future government spending.)
How can an entirely beneficial policy be at all controversial?
October 28, 2018
And some interesting & fairly sensible ideas by David Davis today: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/28/must-ensure-capitalism-works-everybody/
… simply add to that a May-free Proper Brexit … to give a track record of solved problems that should win in 2022!
October 28, 2018
“We need to meet the costs of the planned increase in NHS spending, only releasing the money if there are good plans to spend it to raise the quality and quantity of care.”
Indeed. It would happen almost automatically if funding were channelled through patients using either an insurance backed or voucher scheme.
October 28, 2018
Peter D Gardner:
Agreed, Peter. A National Insurance system where the state is the only provider is stuck in rigidity. Patients receiving vouchers to use the entitlement they have paid for privately would enable better value services. Individuals choose to spend their own money more wisely than Govt middlemen. Private services compete for the healthiest value performance.
October 28, 2018
Good morning
We can’t, not while we are still part of the EU. And thanks to your stupid leader and her Civil Serpents we shall be shackled to the EU for evermore.
We need a budget that is more friendly to SME’s. For too long past governments have treated them poorly. Piling regulation upon regulation.
And let us not forget, that budget is now held in the autumn and not the spring to comply with EU wishes. A little known fact.
October 28, 2018
VAT on feminine hygiene products is not really a big issue. Perhaps costing Only £1 per month. Despite the absurd claims that is costs far more from some absurd labour MP. But any tax cuts and simplifications are welcome. But it is spending and the endless waste that needs to be cut in the end.
October 28, 2018
Philip Hammond will announce that ‘he is turning on the spending taps in tomorrow’s budget’. This according to the Sunday Times today.
Brown, Darling, Osborne and Hammond have never really turned the ‘spending’ taps down (generally situated directly above a drain or worse still used to inconvenience the productive). Government spending and high taxes are the problem not the solution. Will someone explain this basic economics to Philip Hammond or better still replace him and May now? This defore he lumbers us Corbyn/Mc Donnall & the SNP.
October 28, 2018
“amid furious Tory claims that Theresa May has ordered him to “buy votes” by ending austerity’.
How will damaging the economy in this way and not reducing taxes ‘buy votes’. T May is totally deluded.
October 28, 2018
@MarkB
I didn’t know that. Why was this kept a secret?
Did Mr Hammond not want to appear to be a Brussels sock puppet?
October 28, 2018
Only Eurozone member states have to submit budgets to the EU by 15th Oct each year. It’s a post Greece change, to stop another Greece type event.
But, in the interests of the coming EU “fiscal union”, it makes sense if all member states adopt the same timings; and eventually, the same fiscal year as the EU budget. Alas; that will all be in vain. That is, until the EU turns the European Central Bank (ECB) into the European Central (currency issuing) Treasury.
Nineteen EU member states all using a foreign currency called the Euro; won’t survive without a federal currency issuing Treasury. They should go and ask the US Federal Treasury how to make it work.
October 29, 2018
@acorn
But we’re leaving in March? or does Hammond know something we don’t?
October 28, 2018
BTW. The EU is introducing a third reduced rate VAT band that can be zero percent, with a small exclusion list of some excised products. Tampon tax problem solved.
Dear Chancellor.
The VAT Threshold at £85,000 has become a voluntary growth restriction for SME. It is the highest in the EU and set at the EU maximum allowed. It has become a national productivity and growth cap. According to Tax-Journal, the global average threshold is £15,000. The EU allows a minimum of £9,000.
I agree with Tax Journal; it should be reduced to £43,000 asap, if not lower. The £1.5 billion extra tax yield, should then be netted off other VAT rates.
October 28, 2018
Sound like you would than perhaps have to split your small business into two or three different businesses. Sounds like loads more pointless admin and costs. Plus arguments with the taxman over whether they are separate businesses. One yours, one you wife’s and perhaps on a limited company perhaps with three different lines. Or split parts from labour costs perhaps. Or perhaps just give up or many will claim benefits and go black market and many would illegally do.
Certainly a good way to harm productivity, jobs and small businesses yet again. Governments are really very good at this. May and Hammond’s government brilliant at it.
October 28, 2018
Mark B:
As with most things that happen here with EU approval or direction the latest being the Italian budget being questioned and not only the timing but the content. So it will be interesting to learn if our budget has been determined and or approved in advance of presentation. I read Chancellor Hammond is reported to say “If we leave with no deal we will be in a different set of circumstances and it would require a different approach.”
October 29, 2018
The EU Commission are shown our budget BEFORE our parliament. Another little known fact. The reason is, that we cannot do anything that the EU may consider detremental to the interests if the EU.
October 28, 2018
JR,
Interesting perspective with lots of potential, but this of course assumes that everything else is equal. which according to Nomura is no longer the case. According to Nomuara we have already lost £60 billion in lost growth over the past two years due to primarily Brexit.
So the £39 billion and more you state should be available for as you t2% extra growth is not available.
Reply We have lost nothing from Brexit. Growth has been slowed by domestic policy
October 28, 2018
“According to Nomura we have already lost £60 billion in lost growth over the past two years due to primarily Brexit.”
And of course you believe that, even though there is no objective evidence that the referendum has had any significant effect on the evolution of GDP.
See these recent comments:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/01/the-problems-with-socialism/#comment-964180
“Any half-decent Chancellor with a shred of integrity would have dismissed that study out of hand, pointing out that all economic models were more or less unreliable – look at how badly wrong his predecessor had got it with his doomladen predictions just before the EU referendum – and that must be especially true where the aim is to try work out where the UK economy would be now by treating the UK as a synthetic composite of Canada, Japan, Hungary and the US, plus a few other countries … ”
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/04/the-missing-agenda/#comment-964863
“I don’t suppose Hans will bother to look at actual evidence which may contradict his fixed pro-EU anti-Brexit view, but if he did click on that link and chose “MAX” and just looked at the right hand end of the chart he would see that nothing in particular has happened as a consequence of the vote to leave the EU, the UK economic growth rate was edging down well before the referendum and so far it has just edged down a bit further on the same gentle downwards trend … ”
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/08/interest-rates-savers-and-borrowers/#comment-965467
“… the interesting question is this:
“Where on that chart did the EU referendum take place?”
… at about the 31 quarters mark, and despite all the Remoaners’ increasingly dishonest efforts to find evidence of economic catastrophe, actual or incipient, looking at that chart it is impossible to detect anything significant which has happened since then in terms of the evolution of GDP.”
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/12/my-speech-during-the-debate-on-the-agriculture-bill-10-october-2018/#comment-966111
“… with GDP growth very obviously having slowed even more during the five quarters BEFORE the referendum than during the period AFTER the referendum … Yet the authors at the “independent” OBR still think that it is worth citing a number of specious studies designed to demonstrate that we have already suffered economic loss as a result of the referendum vote, although of course not the immediate and deep recession that George Osborne’s Treasury forecast if we so much as dared to vote to leave …”
October 28, 2018
Denis,
There is not economic disaster as forecast by the remainers, there is just a significant slow down, due to a number of factors including Brexit uncertainty.
This is why we went form being the best performing economy among the G* in terms of growth to the slowest for many quarters.
Reply We grew quickly to spring 2017 and according to today’s Telegraph are currently probably growing faster than the Euro area again. Lets wait and see the figures, as there is now a slowdown in Euroland and they have to absorb the monetary tightening the ECB plans for year end. UK policy is clearly still squeezing things a bit, nothing to do with Brexit.
October 29, 2018
“This is why we went form being the best performing economy among the G* in terms of growth to the slowest for many quarters.”
That is exactly the obviously false point that Ed Conway tried to make on Sky News this morning, while standing in front of a chart with the UK growth rate trending down from Q1 2015:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/28/yes-chancellor-we-coukd-afford-a-better-budget-if-we-leave-without-a-withdrawal-agreement/#comment-969698
Perhaps you also believed the FT in December 2016 when it said we had already lost badly from the referendum because since then the economy had not been growing at its long term trend rate of 2.5% a year, when the growth rate had dipped below that level a year before the referendum.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/01/18/parliament-rejects-possibility-of-membership-of-the-single-market-and-customs-union-again/#comment-913545
“I’m staggered by the dishonesty of this graph which appeared in the FT before Christmas in an article entitled “The real price of Brexit begins to emerge” … ”
Any lie will do for Remoaners.
October 28, 2018
JR.
This just shows you do not understand the real fundamentals of economics, which is based on confidence and being able to forecast with some certain predictions in terms of future demand
October 28, 2018
More fairy tales from hans christian ivers. Our host has been consistently correct in his forecasts, as opposed to the economic consensus of the pro-EU cabal. The EU is all about power, not sound economics. As long as they can steal sufficient cash with bogus taxation, the fate of the masses is of little interest to them.
October 28, 2018
Jagman84
That is why the economies in northern Europe who have followed the EU have done so well financially over the past 3 years, because it is all about power not sound economics by the EU. What a load of nonsense/
October 28, 2018
Hans, The Euro is an average currency. So Germany benefits by mercantilism. The EU is a rotten anti-democratic ideology kept in place by power and blackmail.
October 28, 2018
Germany has done well because its currency is under valued by approx 30%
October 28, 2018
But has our domestic policy been determined by or in collusion with the EU?
October 28, 2018
Old Salt,
this is too advanced for my thinking on collusions?
thanks
October 28, 2018
Hans, As revealed by the Kit-Kat audio tapes the UK government’s policies are made in collusion with the EU.
October 29, 2018
NickC
I am sorry but you do not understand what and ideology is
October 28, 2018
Does the Chancellor understand all these ”needs”, I wonder. Many of us are sceptical, if not already totally disillusioned.
(Perhaps the words ”no deal” should always be followed by ”with the EU”, otherwise they are seized upon by those who like the expressions ”crashing out”, ”cliff edge”, etc.)
October 28, 2018
Oh to hear such a speech from the Chancellor on Monday!
October 28, 2018
Not a snowball in hells chance from IHT ratter, pension tenant and landlord mugger and total economic illiterate Philip Hammond.
October 28, 2018
Don’t hold your breath.
October 28, 2018
We could add more “we need to’s”. Such as we need to cut politicians and the public sector generally down to size, including closing several entire government departments and quangos, and turning the people loose to do something productive.
October 28, 2018
Well said – totally agree with you.
October 28, 2018
Start with the Equality Commission – a haven for the liberal left agenda, at taxpayers’ expense.
Any other suggestions?
October 28, 2018
Hear hear to that! VOA (Valuation Office Agency) comes immediately to mind, an organistion that would be redundant without the hugely unpopular Council Tax and Business Rates system.
October 28, 2018
Those who think remaining in the EU is a good idea should look at Italy. After a democratically elected govt presents its’ budget the EU has told them they don’t accept it. If somehow we remain in the EU and Corbyn is elected the EU will veto his budget. Those who want socialism must firstly get out of EU control.
October 28, 2018
Corbyn knows this but the lure of political gains from a fractured Tory party led by a PM unwanted by many of her own MPs let alone the rest the country is proving too great!
October 28, 2018
And that is precisely why Corbyn is a Leaver. ..unlike May. Corbyn will not allow his government to be shackled by the EU.
October 28, 2018
The EU doesn’t believe in the term “democratically elected”. Did Italy elect any of those in the EU who are now telling them what to do?
October 28, 2018
The EU (or rather the Euro-group is simply holding Italy to its long term commitments as part of the consitions for EUR membership. The Italians do not want to leave the EUR (and cannot afford to) and they do not want to leave the EU (a consequence of leaving the EUR) either. They have eaten their cake a long time ago and think they still have it. Too bad.
October 28, 2018
“The Italians do not want to leave the EUR (and cannot afford to)”
==
Of course they don’t and can’t.
Wiki extract:
“Today, Italy is considered to be one of the world’s most culturally and economically developed countries, with its economy ranking eighth largest in the world and third in the Eurozone.
As an advanced economy, it has the sixth-largest worldwide national wealth, and is ranked third for its central bank gold reserve. Italy has a very high level of human development, and it stands among the top countries for life expectancy. The country plays a prominent role in regional and global economic, military, cultural and diplomatic affairs, and it is both a regional power and a great power.
Italy is a founding and leading member of the European Union and a member of numerous international institutions, including the UN, NATO, the OECD, the OSCE, the WTO, the G7, the G20, the Union for the Mediterranean, the Council of Europe, Uniting for Consensus, the Schengen Area and many more.
As a reflection of its cultural wealth, Italy is home to 54 World Heritage Sites, the most in the world, and is the fifth-most visited country.”
==
Italy shows what a true EU member has achieved since its disastrous defeat in WW2. It serves as a beacon to the rest of Europe.
Reply It gas just elected a government that wants to overturn Euro austerity policies. Its GDP is still below the levels of 2007
October 28, 2018
So EU imposed austerity is just fine for Italy and Greece but you think austerity for the UK is dreadful.
Odd logic margaret.
October 28, 2018
Indeed Italy is a wonderful country in many respects. But it should clearly not have joined the euro, and has shown no growth in the 20 years since it did. How the EU/eurozone is going to square the circle of a currency union without a political & fiscal union is a question which ardent remainers such as you who post on this site never address!
October 29, 2018
@Richard1
The EUR is a work in progress and the question that you mention is being addressed. But this will take time. The most important thing is that there is no way back without a lot of damage no one wants. Of couse currency unions do not need a political union (in the sense of a unitary or highly formlized federal one like Australia and the need for a fiscal union can be circumvented by tweasks to the growth & stability pact. Italy (and Greece’s probrem is the predatory political political class that is better of in a low productivity informal economy than in the well managed industrial environment that dominates the North. The normal companion of that is a lot of offshore capital and a culture of irresponsible government.
Of course Italy could reach German productivity levels. Technology and capital are borderless in Europe and training workers is something that happens everywhere in the third world where pools of socialized labour (literacy especially) are being mined by regional entrepreneurs. That could happen in Italy and Greece too but would displace the informal economy. Not so sure if the UK productivity problem is completely unrelated to the presence of a large informal economy.
October 28, 2018
2007?
You mean before the global financial crisis?
Hardly surprising.
October 29, 2018
Reply to reply.
Italy cannot do just as it likes, it has signed up to the rules of the game, the common currency, and must observe it. What if Scotland decided to do things that it was not allowed to do, would the UK government simply standby and do nothing.
October 28, 2018
Yes, trapped, as we could have been.
Is it a good idea to have parts of your empire locked into battle with the unelected centre? It sounds like a recipe for revolution.
October 28, 2018
I know lots of Remainers. I know none that want socialism. But given the choice between the ghastly Mr Corbyn – who will so short term damage to our country – and the downright evil Tory Brexit pensioners – who will do long term damage to our country – we will pick the former over the later. Like picking a broken leg over cancer.
October 28, 2018
Andy
“ghastly Mr Corbyn – who will so short term damage to our country – and the downright evil Tory Brexit pensioners – who will do long term damage to our country – we will pick the former over the later. Like picking a broken leg over cancer.”
For Christ’s sake man give it a rest!
In fact something needs to be said to this guy;
This fixation you have with pensioners who might have voted Tory is unhealthy.
By your admission, you see pensioners as downright evil if they don’t vote the way you want. Suggesting that you take pleasure in vilifying the elderly.
I can tell you that sometimes pensioners do indeed get up lots of people’s noses mine included, but we show tolerance and respect.
This time however, you are crossing a line by targeting a group of pensioners and labelling them as being akin to cancer. Which is bang out of order considering many of them probably do have that horrible disease.
I remind you that each and everyone of us non-Pensioners owe some respect to those who are Pensioners. They have done more for this country than the rest of us..
I suspect your problem might be that unlike the Pensioners you constantly vilify, you yourself have never experienced what real hardship is.
I also remind you that everyone entitled to vote in this country regardless of their age, is also entitled to vote according to their beliefs and perceptions.
This is called democracy, get over it.
October 28, 2018
Steve
“This time however, you are crossing a line by targeting a group of pensioners and labelling them as being akin to cancer. Which is bang out of order considering many of them probably do have that horrible disease.”
==
Your absurd connection really does cross a line.
October 28, 2018
Stred
” They already have a word for their deceit ”
Don’t know what they call it, but I call it treasonable cowardice.
October 28, 2018
Margaret Howard
“Your absurd connection really does cross a line.”
Not at all, read his post and see for yourself.
Viz; “we will pick the former over the later. Like picking a broken leg over cancer”.
Plainly, tory pensioners are being compared to a cancer.
October 28, 2018
Steve: This “Andy” fellow has been targeting pensioners/the “elderly” for months which such vitriol that his posts border on hate crime.
The moderator of this website (John Redwood?) has granted him dispensation to persist with such vile attacks and should feel ashamed for approving them for publication on a daily basis!
October 28, 2018
Glenn Vaughan:
Your claim of JR shame seems misplaced. It is probably better that extreme views are revealed to inform others & enable their fuller assessment. Censorship would be harsher, & a needless cushion for those with sensible open minds.
October 28, 2018
Hate is horrible but should never be considered as a crime. It’s for the perpetrator to resolve this with themselves, not a legal matter unless there is proof of lingering damage, which gives Andy’s ramblings too much credit.
October 29, 2018
I know people who feel just like that , among them my father a life long Conservative in his eighties
October 28, 2018
Corbyn and McDonnell know that, ultimately they are Leavers (and always have been) though it suits them to masquerade as Remainers when there is political advantage.
October 29, 2018
Yes but for different reasons then our host.
October 28, 2018
And I am going to win the lottery. I see Hammond is touting investment in our broadband network. If if ever there was a case study in the effects of the dead hand of a previous public sector monopoly, poor political leadership and a weak Regulator allowing the country to be held to ransom due to a massive pension legacy problem, this is it. No surprise that a private sector PLC is driving change.
Add Network Rail, still not fit for purpose and probably others and you have clear lessons for any government about future State interference and involvement.
Will they be learnt? Of course not.
October 28, 2018
Indeed but alas we have visionless, tax to death, Brexit in name only Hammond in number 11.
The way to get better health care is to encourage far more people to go privately give income tax relief, vouchers and abolish Hammond’s 12% tax on private medical insurance. Get some choice and freedom in the system. Get the NHS to start charging people who can pay or have or should have insurance.
The simple way to destroy Corbyn’s cult? Scrap PAYE says Tom Welsh in the Telegraph today. This way people would get the money, see it then have to pay it back. We have hugely high taxes that are disguised and hidden by the state as far as they can. We also get virtually nothing of value in return. The police now even do not bother to pursue garage fuel thefts or shoplifting for example. Too busy counting hate crime numbers and stabbing I suppose.
If people bought petrol and it said cost of petrol £10 tax £40 on top, or wages net £1000 tax NI and emp. NI £700 deducted perhaps it would have an effect. High tax level make the economy far less efficient giving the wrong incentives. Better financially sometimes even for a surgeon to fix his own car rather than operating for a day, paying tax and ni, then vat to the garage. Or similarly for childcare. The loop tax NI, employers NI, income tax and VAT on the spending can be as high as 65% so you do £100 of work as a surgeon buy get only £35 of work from the garage. The government takes the £65 in the loop. On top of that council tax, renewable energy tax, insurance tax, rates for the garage, tax administration costs …….
Then they Tax 40% plus the probate tax off you on death for good measure. All largely to waste most of this money on stupid and hugely inefficient lunacy. The payment to the healthy but lazy and feckless also damage the economy hugely, destroying incentives as they do.
October 28, 2018
Silly remarks. Every single government forecast and serious economic analysis shows that the small gains from not paying our dues to the EU will be massively outweighed by the damage done to our existing patterns of trade and our reputation as a law-abiding country.
October 28, 2018
Somers
You appear to me to be missing the point.
I can only say this; better to rough it initially than be held over a barrel. Sure there will be inconveniences ahead but as a nation we are capable of overcoming difficulties.
If taking the easy option was the proper thing to do, we might as well have surrendered to any foreign despot who’s had a go at our country during the last two centuries.
I’m up for the challenge as are millions of others.
Do I care if I can’t buy fruit during winter ? No.
Do I care if the price of coffee goes up ? No, I don’t touch the stuff. British cuppa for me.
Do I mind paying a bit more tax ? not a problem so long as it’s for the common good.
Do I object to doing more graft ? No.
Unfortunately some people don’t seem able to think outside of project fear’s box.
October 28, 2018
Disregard the silly scare stories about food shortages, I’ve travelled to several countries outside the EU and never had any problem buying coffee, fruit, wine, cheese or spaghetti?
And the Eurostar will not cease running simply because it’s in no ones interest for it to close, especially the French (who happen to own it).
Planes will continue to fly too, simply because the EU will be in a fragile state if Britain leaves on WTO terms and if air links to the UK were shut down it could prove fatal for some of the remaining member states..
October 28, 2018
Steve’s point hasn’t been addressed by you Bob, and isn’t addressed either by our host or mainstream press, to wit, even IF there is some hardship, the end game will be more than worth it. Millions voted with this in mind, and it’s being ignored by do-gooders.
October 28, 2018
Good luck John – cutting taxes are all sensible Conservative policies. Just a pity we don’t have a Conservative Chancellor and Prime Minister to deliver them.
October 28, 2018
This had better be the last budget before we leave on March 29th 2019, I see the remoaners are still at it
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/27/jeremy-corbyn-second-brexit-vote-commons-amendment
I hope the public have all these Eu loving remoaner muppets in there sights and given the big elbow at the next GE, they are not putting the country first but there own self interest , it will be very gratifying to see the smug look wipe off all there faces when they are given there marching orders and put on the rock and roll
October 28, 2018
Mick
“I hope the public have all these Eu loving remoaner muppets in their sights and get the big elbow at the next GE”
The big elbow will be the least of their worries if they sell us out. If they do, then things will get very nasty.
Put it this way: not very remoaners would admit to being so.
If they think we’ll accept the betrayal of British sovereignty, they really need to think again.
October 28, 2018
Probably, the Treasury is following EU rules still and the 60% debt target is the aim. The fact that we have a debt about average in the EU and countries such as Japan, Singapore, Italy, Greece, Belgium and Spain has higher is secondary.
They fully expect to be following their instructions from Brussels and this is also why almost nothing has been done to facilitate WTO trading. They already have a word for their deceit
Kitcat.
October 28, 2018
Spain have…
October 28, 2018
My tax administration and tax planning costs for myself, my wife and my businesses (vat, PAYE, licences, related Insurance, corporation taxes, council tax, accountants, tax planners, book keepers, lawyers and the rest costs circa £300k PA. Total tax paid about is only about the same £300 k PA. So 50% of the sum raised is wasted before the government even gets their hands on it. Then government wastes perhaps another 70% of it or so on collection costs, general incompetence, misdirection, propaganda and waste. £600k taken out of my businesses to give perhaps just £90k of value back in public services of any value. Tax complexity and red tape is a huge tax on top of all the taxes. Then we have all the bonkers employment red tape, OTT heath and safety, planning restrictions …….too.
October 28, 2018
Get the government out of the way as far as possible, the economy will boom as night follows day. If I could have kept more of that £600k PA I could make the business far more efficient and create many more real and productive jobs. Killing pointless and parasitic jobs should be the aim of government there are millions of them in and out of government. Perhaps as many as 30% of jobs are essentially pointless or worse still are actually positively damaging to productive workers.
October 28, 2018
I wouldn’t count on that £39 billion, JR, not even if we were to leave the EU without any withdrawal agreement at all. In any case, it wouldn’t be paid as a single lump sum, it would be part payments spread over many years stretching into future.
Then finally the day might come when a Chancellor could announce that the last payment was about to be made to the EU, or its heir and successor, in the same way that in 2006 it was announced that after six decades the UK was about to make the last repayments of the war loans from the US and Canada:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6215847.stm
And otherwise hardly anybody would have noticed, the final sums being comparatively small in contemporary terms, just a few tens of millions.
October 28, 2018
Your post begins with a critical qualification “This will be the last budget before the UK is an independent country again, if we end up with no deal.”
As far as I am aware no one, including the cabinet, has seen the draft agreement apart from its authors May and Robbins. If reports are correct the Attorney General is having to correct Mrs May on her assertions of the legal interpretation of sundry clauses that have seen the light of day (relating to the Irish border). Mushroom management remains in charge. Expect another attempted stitch up as at Chequers.
October 28, 2018
We can but dream JR, but I fear taxes will rise not fall under this Chancellor and Prime Minister.
They are both clueless as to what is needed and required.
The farce is that many of the Commonwealth Countries will have more independence than we will after May’s sell out.
October 28, 2018
If this type of budget were to be introduced I would wake up thinking I had been dreaming. It’s the stuff fairy tales are made of all the time May and Hammond are in place. It won’t happen.
October 28, 2018
I applaud your wish -list; these are all things one would expect from a Conservative government, but with this government there would be more chance of a blizzard on the equator. Like his two immediate predecessors though, the current Chancellor is in the thrall of his civil servants who are delighted to continue with the agenda set by Gordon Brown, and also the austerity requirements of the EU which they are terrified to leave.
October 28, 2018
Off-topic, most of a Sunday newspaper has to be assembled over the preceding week and perhaps that is why the Sunday Telegraph is still reporting today:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/27/senior-brexiteers-expressing-strong-interest-plan-b-brexit/
that Nick Boles wants us to be like Norway, and moreover that David Davis is among the senior Brexiteers who are interested in this idea, even though it was pointed out directly to Nick Boles only on Friday that the Irish government would not accept a customs border like that between Norway and Sweden:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/25/global-britains-new-independent-poll/#comment-969080
“I guess most of the 11% who want to stay in the EEA are unaware that the EFTA member states of the EEA are not in any customs union, either with each other or with the EU and its member states, and that the Irish government would veto even so-called “light touch” customs arrangements like those between EU Sweden and EFTA Norway … ”
“Why are so many MPs so ignorant of basic facts? Nick Boles today … “
October 28, 2018
Rather amusingly, this article:
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87037
also fails to see the wood for the trees; after a lengthy and detailed discussion of the various technical objections, leading to the conclusion:
“Any rational evaluation of the Boles scenario, therefore, makes it plain that it is an ill-thought-out scheme that cannot possibly work.”
it then goes on to ignore the absurd, extreme and intransigent political position on the Irish adopted by the Irish government in the autumn of 2017:
“What would be particularly helpful here is that, since the Efta/EEA option is a whole-UK solution, it resolves the Northern Irish border problem …”
October 28, 2018
We’ll need to buy in more emergency generators for institutions like police stations, factories and farms- farms especially in case of losing power for milking
We’ll need to spend on the build up of equine stock especially draught horses in case we find it hard to get parts for tractors and other machinery.
A revival of the the canal trading practices of old might be worthwhile looking at as well
Some consideration will have to be given to reviving the old trades like coopering, blacksmiths and roof thatching- Then there will probably be a need for the barge and boatmen on the Thames and other rivers and ports around. Loaders unloaders and dockers and seamen will be needed. ..yes I can see already where we are headed..back to the future
October 28, 2018
Mr Redwood,
Assuming that 39 bn is the right amount and there is no associated derease in revenue as a consequence of adjustment costs (ie a ceteris paribus question): how do you get to a 2% boost? 2% of annual GDP (roughly 2000 bn) is 40 bn, or .6% on average of the three years you mention. That is almost a rounding error. Plus I guess you arrive at the GDP effect by assuming that this boosts GDP by not spending abroad (ie net exports and hence GDP increase). Do you assume any different multipliers if this amount is spent differently? Questions.
October 28, 2018
Under the circumstances the proposed cost of high speed rail is a pure madness..what do we need ìt for?..why does it matter if we can get to one part of the country or the other a half hour earlier..just where do we think we are going? with large parts of our people relying on foodbanks and now the political class want to spend maybe 100 billion so we can get to Northern parts a half hour earlier..for what??
October 28, 2018
hardlymatters:
HS2 appears to be a clumsy, slow & expensive way of gaining very little for so few. A helicopter service might be a better, more flexible & less obstructive alternative for those who value half an hour so highly.
October 29, 2018
A Chinook costs £100m & seats 50. £56bn could buy 560 of them!
Should we obtain enough Chinooks for the MoD instead of wasting billions on HS2? The relatively few civil passengers wishing to save half an hour on their journey could pay the MoD for travel use, accepting that in a defence emergency the service would cease.
The notion is merely a raw concept, yet enables many advantages. HS2 is a wastefully inept idea & in need of a solution.
October 28, 2018
Being in the EU has bred a most unhealthy belief that this country and its people need to look to overseas businesses for solutions to problems and to help future growth.
From the point of view of the economy and the production of goods I would like to see a reversal of this belief and the policies which move it, which could start with government changing its Open for Business mantra. This has in practice led to the encouragement of the sale of assets and the invitation to many overseas competitors to open branches of their businesses here and to sell us their goods, often as direct imports, almost always to the detriment of our own. It is a policy which has failed in its objective.
There are very few of this country’s ‘brands’ which are wholly home owned any more and since their sale dividends and surplus cash generated leaves here to the country of ownership.
We once took pride in and benefitted from our overseas investments. Other countries see the benefit to them of investing overseas, why do we think the opposite, that selling our assets is such a good thing.
October 28, 2018
‘This will be the last budget before the UK is an independent country again, if we end up with no deal.’
Are you suggesting that with a deal the UK still remains a province rather than a sovereign nation?
A few days ago the 1922 Committee capitulated to May’s tears and tantrum and decided to place their faith in a politician that is without question the most reviled Tory leader for many a year. And the only reason she’s still PM is Jeremy Corbyn not because she’s Theresa May.
The Tory politician carrying the Brexit flag’s been stopped in his tracks by another tedious anti-Tory conspiracy by, erm, Tory MPs.
It is my belief that for all of John’s bullish pro-Brexit outpourings he and all of his fellow Tory MPs who have nailed their colours to the mast of May will have betrayed the 52% for, political convenience. Welcome to the world of the C21st politician.
We will know if the UK’s left the EU on April 1st 2019. This Tory leader won’t be able to hide the evidence.
If on the 1 April-2019 UK law is subordinate to EU law and subject to ECJ rulings this Tory government will have committed the most vile act of treachery against democracy and its people and every single Tory MP who backed May’s treachery will have that on their ‘conscience’
October 28, 2018
We should charge the NHS costs of all ‘Health Tourists’ and ‘Asylum Seekers’ to the foreign aid budget instead of wasting the money where it does little good and ends up in the pockets of the local elite.
October 28, 2018
Jacob Rees-Mogg on Sky News interview:
Does this mean we should prepare for more punishment from the Chancellor?
October 28, 2018
Events could prove interesting;
If our last budget before brexit has to meet with EU scrutiny, what if they don’t agree with it ?
If the budget angers Brussels, then I might believe the government intends to get us out of the EU.
If on the other hand Hammond delivers a wishy-washy EU conformal budget then that would say it all really.
My bet is on the latter.
October 28, 2018
Fake news.
The £39bn is the Tory pensioner Brexit bill. That’s just that visible fee of course, that me and my children will pay to humour you all. That actual cost over the coming decades will be significantly greater.
Don’t worry though. Before long we will claim it back at the ballot box and deduct it from your pensions and social care costs.
You will all be paying your share – which will be a novel experience for many of you.
October 28, 2018
Interesting points Andy, but the State pension scheme has always been a pay now take it out later system, where each generation pays for the previous generations (their parents and grandparents).
I paid when working, for my parents and grandparents pensions, my children pay for mine, my grandchildren with pay for their parents (my children).
That is the way it was set up !
It may not have been the most sensible arrangement initially, but pray tell me what would you do now to alter it, and not penalise those who have funded the past generations all of their own working life.
October 28, 2018
I think that those of Andy’s age and lower will not be getting a state pension. They will be told that the workplace scheme is replacing state pension.
October 28, 2018
Mr Redwood, this man is becoming offensive in his remarks. I suggest you start to delete them unless he comes up with something genuinely new, rather than just the same old factless and offensive comments
October 28, 2018
Leaving the EU with a “no deal” (viz WTO terms) means that :
We do not pay a £39bn fine for leaving.
We do not continue to pay the EU for membership of their SM/CU or other institutions thus meaning we have more money to spend on our infrastructure and our own institutions rather than those of other countries.
We do not have to give away control of our military assets (including nuclear) to the EU.
We can tailor our trade policies to benefit our country and not those of Germany (cars) or France (agriculture).
We can take back our fishing waters.
We can run our own agricultural policy to produce the right balance for us (and not for other countries) between supporting farming/conserving the environment and providing affordable food for our own people.
We no longer have to take part in the programmed transformation of the EU with massive increases in population for our country brought about by the EU plans for expansion to the East and the continued immigration of people from the ME and Africa.
October 28, 2018
I keep hearing that the UK is the 6th biggest economy in the world and others (maybe the same people) say the UK is the 6th richest country in the world.
Which is it? Either indicates that we are using the ecosphere greatly and more than our fair share yet we desire to be even richer to pay more for roads, hospitals, railway, education, housing etc., etc.
How is this circle to be squared? Obviously no one cares.
October 28, 2018
Ps I see Hammond spinning his positive budget, threatens us that if there is a no deal he will potentially ‘have’ take it all away again.
More punishment from the Treasury? His credibility is zero. He has cried wolf too often.
October 28, 2018
Your suggestions are clear and concise, but the devils are staging us. We have a Remain Prime Minster, a Remain Chancellor and a dismal quality of MP. The only person who stands out is the new Attorney General. I hope he can wield his power to bring about a No Deal. The EU already think they have won.
October 28, 2018
All the stuff “we need to do”..what a loada rubbish..we will still be sending our budget figures to brussels for pre-approval..it’s nearly time..we are almost there..
October 28, 2018
John John…wake up John … we have not discovered £39 billion down the back of the sofa , this is money that you have cost us. You threw this money away, as well as the additional £200bn of borrowing Brexit necessitated.
Your elderly fans may have forgotten yesterday but I have not and your efforts to present the money as a Brexit boost requires early onset dementia to make any sense
There is zero mandate for you to start actual hostilities with our neighbours, you cannot do it and no-one has ever suggested we could outside the lunatic fringe of the Brexit spectrum.
A Brexit budget will be the same as any other but with much less money
Reply You sound very worried that we might leave and spend the £39 bn we save. Being so unpleasant as you are reflects badly on your EU cause
October 28, 2018
I don’t see anything about housing for the for the disadvantaged nor social care for old people, what about getting diesel off the roads especially heavy goods, electric buses, technical colleges for kids coming out of school, I thought these were gov priorities and using new tech to start new businesses and know how for here in the UK and for export, twenty-first century thinking instead of twenty century know-how which ends up just being a smashing and garbing for lawyers, bankers, financial advisors and accounts, the usual suspects with overseas investors offshoring big amounts of UK assets as usual and renting them back to the UK for bigger profits.
The agriculture industry to sort out with fishing all things need planning so everything comes together, otherwise, you are just throwing money down the drain like the last 28 years of going nowhere, in some cases, not even getting a pay rise.
In 2010 you started with a spending budget of 670 billion and by 2022 it will be about 900 billion with the majority of the people in the UK having nothing to show for it, in fact, a few are worst off and have no money at all or housing,
October 28, 2018
Last paragraph:
“There is £39 bn to spend over the next three years if we decline to sign the one sided Withdrawal Agreement. Thats a 2% boost to national income.”
==
If we renege on our dues which we agreed to after begging to be allowed to join the EU nearly 5 decades ago, nobody in the whole wide world will ever trust us again.
Still ‘Perfidious Albion’?
October 28, 2018
What actual legal dues are you talking about?
The House of Lords who are remainers said there were no obligations to pay anything.
October 28, 2018
May is still PM. Tory MPs refuse to depose her. Therefore Brexit will not happen. It explains why Hammond his demeanour is so bullish. He now knows that they’ve defeated the Eurosceptics and therefore Tory Remainers can continue to carry out their strategy of circumventing the result of the EU-Ref result
May’s now in place for years to come and the Eurosceptics will scurry off into their respective corners and weep
The losers are democracy and morality
October 28, 2018
We do NOT need to cut the Basic Rate of Income Tax Rate to 18%.The 20% income Tax Rate is least deterrent or all our taxes in terms of transactions
At the moment the Standard Rate of Tax (including NIC) on Earned Income ranges from 25.85% to 29% and 32%.
It’s only 20% on Investment Income, and in any case people can shelter large sums of money tax free in Pensions and ISAs
There are however umpteen other much Higher Tax/NIC Rates operating within the Income Tax System including the punitive marginal rates of up to 100% which apply to people with children but who earn between £50,000 and a little over £60,000, and a 60% rate which applies to people with incomes of between £100,000 and £123,000 a year.
For everyone else Income Tax is charged at rates of 40% 42% 45% and 47%. On top of that there’s the 13.8% NIC that employers have to pay on the wages.
The Universal Credit (UC) earnings taper rate is 63% (and that doesn’t include the Council Tax Relief Withdrawal Component) and who knows what marginal tax rates are operating within the Tax Credit and the rest of the benefits/tax system?
These chaotic and destructive rates could be swept away in an all embracing tax reform costing than the cost of cutting the Basic Rate by 2%.
Inheritance Tax is 40%. (28% would no doubt raise more revenue).
There are three rates of Capital Gains Tax 10% 18% and 28%. None of these are onerous compared with what people are having to pay in every extra pound they earn.
And if the 28% rate on profits from But to Let property is discouraging transactions that it can be overcome by charging a modest annual Advance Capital Gains Tax (similar to ACT) levy on properties which haven’t yet been sold.
Cutting vehicle excise duty would merely encourage more people to own cars they hardly use, and leave them parked in the street for months on end.
If any cash is available for motorists it would be better to scrap the Tax on Car Insurance and the VAT on servicing and on new brakes tyres etc. So encouraging and rewarding people who do the right thing
We do not need to spend yet more money on Schools until we get value for money out of what we are already spending and acceptable standards from teachers.
If John Redwood thinks that giving Free Car Parking at hospitals is a good idea he should visit Wales, where, following this expensive gimmick having been introduced hospital Car Parks are already full before 08.30am and have mutated into Free Park and Walk (or Ride), for the whole town.
You can barely find somewhere for an Outpatient to get out, let alone park.
October 28, 2018
Tax should never be charged on income that hasn’t yet happened, that’s pure Corbynomics.
Time for the govt to cut the squandering on foreign aid, HS2 and useless quangos, instead of constantly looking for more ways to steal from the productive sector.
October 28, 2018
J, You made your contribution in the house on the MV-UQ. It seemed a sort of muted non-committed response from DR. Do you still ‘honestly’ believe that a deal/no deal will be voted on prior to the plague of amendments that will follow!! Will Bercow side with remainers and allow the EUWA to be amended as to stop Brexit? ECJ will be TELLING US that both us and the EU can op art50 in it’s tracks! Is that true as well?
Reply There could be a motion about no deal. A vote on a motion cannot trump legislation. If Parliament wants to change its mind and delay exit it would have to amend or repeal the Withdrawal Act and the EU Withdrawal (Notification) Act, as well as gaining the consent of the other 27 member states. I assume the government would not make the time available to legislate in such a way.