It was good to hear the Secretary ofĀ State for Health on Friday say a bit more about treatments, and express some optimism that this year should see approval for treatments for CV 19 which make it much less likely someone will die or have a bad version of the disease. The UK is currently conducting 96 trials of drugs and 9 trials of other vaccines. Worldwide there are reported trials of 700 drugs that may help with treating CV 19, with a total of 2607 clinical trials running for the drugs and vaccines. The USA alone is currently organising 555 clinical trials for CV 19 treatments and vaccines.
I have been long advocating the UK puts resource into these important efforts.Ā Without medical training, I do not know which if any of these possible treatments can do good. It must beĀ worth trialling them to find out.
So far the UK has approved dexamethasone, remdesivir and tocilizumab as options for doctors to prescribe where they think they are appropriate. There are a number of other treatments used elsewhere, and we await progress with further trials here for those. There have been strong arguments over Vitamin D, hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin in particular, with disagreements about the conditions for some past trials and strong views of whether these might be effective orĀ not. AllĀ possible medical options should be fairly and promptly assessed. I hope the government’s new enthusiasm to share some more information and to express some optimism is a good sign that the medics do now feel treatments from adapted existing drugs and from new drugs can make an important contribution to lessening the suffering from this disease. I will follow up with some more questions to the government.
February 14, 2021
Good morning.
We seem to have more treatments for CV19 than the common cold
So ! Can we come out now ??
/sarc
Please forgive, but I have been meaning to post this for a while. š
Enjoy the rest of your weekend š
February 14, 2021
There is one little problem
In making āsmileā! an ask
For nobody can see it
Behind a soggy mask!!
February 15, 2021
They have shut much of the economy down totally, millions spent on testing often healthy people, Ā£millions wasted on largely unused nightingale hospitals and yet we still have one of the highest Covid deaths rates per cap. It is quite possible that this saved very few net lives anyway compared to not shutting down just do the sums. Could be even higher than Ā£2.5 million.
February 14, 2021
Spike Milligan: “I started smiling too.”
The ‘mask mandates’ have effectively abolished smiling.
You need to be careful, Mark B. Such a poem is contrary to government approved ‘TrueSpeak’ and as such you may get a visit from the Thought Police ( AKA the police – That’s modern day Britain for you ).
February 14, 2021
And literally taxed the air we breath !!! Finally they’ve done it !!!!
February 14, 2021
APL – unfortunately SO TRUE
February 14, 2021
Love the poem.Itās just what the world needs now.
February 14, 2021
I too am happy that all this trialing is taking place, but cannot comment on the wisdom of any part of it.
How about discussing a roadmap to economic recovery. Alternatively the usefulness of Covid passports post a second injection. The morality of housing illegal immigrants in better accommodation than citizens returning to the UK from countries designated Covid rife , and giving them Covid jabs ahead of UK citizens who can only visit the supermarket and local tip. The government recently admitted to 1.3 million illegal immigrants roaming free in the UK, a likely gross underestimate. What are the UKs plans for their removal post Covid.
All the above mentioned because they are all subjects the electorate have informed opinions about.
February 14, 2021
Answer there will be none.
This so called Tory government agrees with mass immigration as they are in thrall to big businesses.
The Irish border won’t get fixed, neither will the shellfish problem.
All these things are designed to demonstrate how good the EU is and how the great and good think we made a mistake in leaving.
February 14, 2021
Well you certainly made a mistake in leaving, you made a bigger mistake by not staying in the Customs Union and the Single Market. The only way the Irish Border will be fixed now is by Irish Unification- long overdue, and unfortunately the shellfish problem is here to stay, you see with divergence comes paperwork and so an end to JIT for fresh produce- but IDS, Jacob Rees-Moog, Mark francois and our host here did not explain that to us very well at the time and there’s no point in citing Boris or Gove now, two of the greatest liars and charlatans to come on the scene in a long while- i can still see the red bus at every mention of their names
February 14, 2021
Spot On Ian
Will the real conservative MP please step forward
February 14, 2021
Yes, there are treatments, but let’s remember that even the best are only saving a minority of lives amongst the very ill.
Prevention – vaccination – is FAR better than treatment.
And remember too, that unless true herd immunity is achieved in this way, then the virus will survive, mutate, impose recurrent threats, and place never-ending demands on health provision.
Vaccinate.
Eradicate.
February 14, 2021
We’d already done that with TB but you were happy to see it come back for the love of freedom of movement (aka abolish national identity.)
We seem to be on a plan of “CV-19 must be eradicated at ALL costs.” which means everything must be sacrificed, including the NHS itself in the end.
We are going to have to learn to live with it.
February 14, 2021
It is impossible to eradicate a coronavirus. They always mutate and new vaccines will be necessary every year or less.
The success of treatments using ivermectin with zinc and antibiotic in the early and later stages of the disease have been clearly analysed by the American Frontline Doctors association and they cleared topenlfiehis with their regulating body in il. They removed the ban on its use. In the UK the HS has decided to run a trial which will take months to finish and given the job to the same team that trashed HCQ when treating patients in late stages and with five times the usual upper dose. This will leave the field open for vaccines, while many more will die unnecessarily.
February 14, 2021
My keyboard has gone wrong. Sorry for the strange words.
You may want to read this analysis of the government advertising claims that one person in three may have no symptoms but be infecting everyone and/or that there are large numbers of cases and few false positives. Professor Fenton is an expert statistician at Queen Mary University.
http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/02/claim-that-1-in-3-people-who-have-virus.html?m=1
February 15, 2021
Spot on Stred.
February 15, 2021
MiC: “Prevention ā vaccination ā is FAR better than treatment”.
Yet Martin, it is reported that a high % of doctors are not accepting the vaccine, only 57% of Doctors reported by the Guardian today @peterwalker99
Mon 15 Feb 2021 09.48 GMT. Only 63% vaccine takeup of nurses and healthcare workers, who are coming in to contact with the virus every working day. So the frontline health workers don’t seem to want to follow your advice.
We are regularly told that the BAME and S Asian community are most at risk and presenting in hospital more with the virus. Yet in the Healthcare community only 37% of black healthcare staff and 59% of S Asian staff have taken up the vaccine.
February 14, 2021
Indeed progress on effective treatments and potential preventions such as Vitamin D has been far too slow in the UK with nearly all the emphasis being put on vaccines.
Today the Government claim to have achieved vaccination of JCVIās first four groups including all those over 70 or group 4. This group logically should have been men over 67.5 and women over 72.5. Doing this would have made the protection about far more effective in saving lives. The next JCVI group 5 is those over 65. This should clearly be Men over 62.5 and Women over 67.5. A sixty year man having about the same Covid risk as a 65 year old woman and so on. This would be about 17% more effective for a given number of vaccines as the JCVI over 65 plan.
So why are JCVI/Hancock/Zahawi choosing a system that will certainly kill very many more people (and put perhaps thousands more in NHS hospitals and make even more suffer a nasty illness), it uses vaccines circa 17% less efficiently and one that discriminates very heavily against men? Can they explain please, they have been told but reply came there none? Are these people really too dim to follow this simple logic and basic maths? It is a mistake that will almost certainly kill far more than sadly died at Grenville after all. An error even worse than the one made by the senior fire officers.
February 14, 2021
Giving vaccines to people who have certainly had Covid is also surely a waste of vaccines when in short supply.
February 14, 2021
It has been recommended for decades that those who live in the further reaches of the Northern Hemisphere, especially the elderly, should take Vit D supplements. Unfortunately, living in hotter and sunnier climates does not appear to have lessened the infection levels of Covid-19, such as Spain, Italy, South America and South Africa. A daily zinc supplement tablet can help the body strengthen its anti-viral resistance.
ps. JR’s Diary appears to be turning once again into Lifelogic’s Diary – and the obsessive rants about male/female vaccine allocation are now more than tedious.
February 14, 2021
@ re the ps. – it is necessary, is it not, so Lifelogic is ready to continue here if Sir John eventually retires?
February 14, 2021
Loads of additional people are dying due to this negligence in the vaccine priority order. Many could still even now be saved were Ministers and JCVI to wake up.
Sorry if this is boring for you but are these many lives not more important? You are not compelled to read it after all.
February 14, 2021
He might be right. If you disagree, why not say why?
February 14, 2021
SM,
There is a history of research of Vitamin D insufficiency and even deficiency in Spain. In the elderly it has also particularly occurred in the summer!!! Inland temperatures of 30-40C lead these people to not venture outside in the day, so even though the sun is there, they hide from it.
February 14, 2021
An interesting take on QALY (quality-adjusted life year), VPF (value of prevented fatality), their UK accepted Ā£ values, the (smaller) NIHCE values plus some economistsā, epidemiologistsā and lockdown scepticsā arguments appears today in the Observer (Laura Spinney, Has Covid changed the price of a life?).
February 14, 2021
Yes they spend 25k per QALY unless it is a Covid life where they spend hundreds of times this sum for no good reason at all. In doing this they destroy far more lives than they save with 300,000 + cancelled operations, cancer diagnosis down hugely, waiting lists doubling, the economy decimated …….
February 14, 2021
Not true. From under which (mad) cap have you collected this 2.5m number? Give a reference or I will continue to think you are just a pretty sad clown. Otherwise you can be sure I shall flatly apologise.
February 14, 2021
āĀ£25k per QALY, and in case of Covid 100 times this sum for no good reason at allā, so Ā£2.5m. With the excess death presently above 100,000 and a lot of discussion about what is Covid and what is not, can we assume that following LL the NHS spent that on 1% of those 100,000 deaths. That would be Ā£2.5bn. Who in their right mind could think that LL is right, specially when he originally said āhundreds of times this sum (Ā£25k)?
February 14, 2021
An interesting take on QALY (quality-adjusted life year), VPF (value of prevented fatality), their UK accepted Ā£ values, the (smaller) NIHCE values plus some economistsā, epidemiologistsā and lockdown scepticsā arguments appears today in the Observer (Laura Spinney, Has Covid
February 14, 2021
Absolutely right. In particular the indifference until recently of the NHS, even opposition, to advocating vitamin D, particularly to the elderly is appalling. It has been well known for years that low vitamin D lowers resistance to illness and viruses. It does not give immunity but it does increase resistance.
February 14, 2021
āThe economy wonāt spring back until we get serious about tax cuts and deregulationā Dan Hannan today.
But it is far worse even than this. The Government are actually very serious about further tax increases, pushing ever more red tape and even loading expensive, unreliable energy and net zero CO2 lunacy on top of this.
February 14, 2021
I think you mean Unelected Bureaucrat Lord Hannan. Nobody voted for him and we canāt get rid of him. At least, not until the public inquiry.
February 14, 2021
No, neither cold we get rid of the anti Brexit Lords who helped slow things down in the hope of thwarting democracy.
Public Inquiry – don’t you mean show trial in your peculiar world?
February 14, 2021
@Andy; Or the abolition of the appointed Lords, I never though I would need to suggest such a radical change…
February 14, 2021
That reminds me of the EU Commission, elected by the people?- nah! why bother with stuff like that, just ask Merkel who she wants in the dictatorship.
February 14, 2021
If nobody voted for Hannan, how did he ever serve in the European parliament? Get your facts right!
February 14, 2021
@matthu; Get your facts right…
We voted for political parties at the European parliament MEP elections, via a closed list PR system, not for an individual candidate, the parties choosing who would most likely take up any seats won in thir electoral regions (party high flayers being higher on the list) – so no, Mr Hannan doesn’t appear to have ever been elected by the public vote – he should feel quite at home in the Lords!
February 14, 2021
Well, you might have blindly voted for a political party but your assumption about anyone else might be incorrect.
I attended public talks by various candidates – including Daniel Hannan – before deciding who to vote for and the talk I attended directly influenced who I would vote for. I was voting for Hannan to be one of those who represented me.
February 15, 2021
@matthu; Stop trying to reflect your own embarrassment on to others, you were the one clearly voting blindly, because you do not understand how a closed list PR system works! What if your favoured candidates name (Mr Hannan in this instance) had, by some quark, been placed sixth on the party list but only enough votes were received for the top five names to become MEPs…
There is another point, remember when the Westminster MP for Haltemprice and Howden resigned in 2008 to forced a by-election on a point of principle, no UK MEP could ever have done that. Had a UK MEP resigned on such a matter of principle, or otherwise, there would not have been a by-election, just the appointment of the next available person on the parties list.
February 14, 2021
I think people are more interested in a Public Inquiry into the CCP (… and the WHO)
It really is like someone’s set off a bomb and all the police are interested in is prosecuting the landlords who failed to put in shatter proof windows.
February 14, 2021
Even talk now of Zero Covid before we end the lockdown. As insane as May and Boris’s net zero carbon by year X (actually a war on CO2 plant food) lunacy. Government policy now seems to be to destroy the economy from as many directions as possible!
February 14, 2021
@LL; So you think it must have been madness to think “zero-polio” …and to think, you like to think of yourself as a scientist…
Nor does “Zero-Covid” mean destroying the economy -well no more than happens when there is a tectonic shift in the sorts of business, and how such business is done, the Covid pandemic of 2020 is to the office and boartdroom what robotics was to the shop-floor in the early 1980s.
February 14, 2021
We do not have zero Polio as yet. Viruses come, evolve and will die out when suitable hosts and environments are no longer available to them. We still have the common cold CV and many others.
February 14, 2021
@LL; Sorry, my mistake, for Polio read Smallpox…
To all intent live smallpox viruses, that were so devastating to humans, no longer exist, other than sample in secure research labs (for humane insurance purposes), that is not to say virus could not mutate to crate a smallpox like virus but it would not be the same viruses.
February 14, 2021
I’m sure that’s not the intention but it’s certainly the effect.
February 14, 2021
Deregulation?
In a country which allowed building standards to degenerate to the point of the Grenfell Tower outrage, and where countless others live in similar death traps?
The Government is backing councils which refuse FoI requests from people worried about their homes too – as you’d expect.
There has not been a SINGLE prosecution for the hundreds of cases of watercourse pollution caused by farmers and by privatised water and sewerage companies either. So even if there are rules they are not enforced.
If this inaction is not criminal, then the law must be changed to make it so.
Hannan is clearly something which speaks for itself.
February 14, 2021
I had the vaccination yesterday at 12.00. By 10.00 last night I went to bed with flu symptoms. Shivering, headache and aching limbs. And I could hear my heartbeat which seemed raised. This was the Astra Zeneca vaccine. Might, of course, be coincidence but I havenāt been out since an operation two weeks ago. I wish I had put it off, now.
February 14, 2021
If you’re over 60, Mike Wilson, you’re part of the first trial group of this vaccine. Astra Zeneca didn’t include anyone of that age group in their trials. You might want to contact Yellow Card so that the manufacturers can use your experience to improve future performance. You’d be performing a valuable service that way. The usual procedure is to trial vaccines on animal subjects first, but people like you are kindly helping to skip that part. We must owe you our thanks.
February 14, 2021
Glad to be of service. Iām 68.
February 14, 2021
Glad you were allowed to point that out!
February 14, 2021
Hope you get better. F.w.W had the Pfizer, no reactions at all except a slightly sore arm.
February 14, 2021
How are you today Mike?
Wish you well
February 14, 2021
Had an unpleasant night. Shivering and thirsty. Lot better this morning. A mild headache is the only symptom now. Cheers.
February 14, 2021
I had that too. A takeaway curry and too many beers. Glad to hear you’re well.
February 14, 2021
Wife said it sounded like a Punch ‘n’ Judy show was going on in the en suite.
February 14, 2021
The symptoms you describe are much preferable to the worst of the actual disease. It shows your body is responding to the vaccine and will be creating anti-bodies as intended. Be pleased.
February 14, 2021
Yes, someone else said it shows my immune system is working. Every cloud.
February 14, 2021
I was offered the Oxford vaccine on Friday. I thanked the surgery and said I would delay it.
Family not very happy, but the people I know that have had covid – neighbours and family -have all recovered and it was not a nearly fatal episode.
February 14, 2021
Hope you recover soon. The same reaction is being experienced by some who had the Pfizer jab too. It’s not just the Astrazenica jab.
February 14, 2021
Hi Mike
Had the same vaccine, probably at the same venue as you last week in Wokingham, no problems at all, but different people react in a different way to different medications.
Speedy recovery, at least flue like symptoms, better than hospitalisation with the virus.
Thought the venue well organised, with all people seemingly going through to their timed appointments.
February 14, 2021
No, Iāve moved to Dorset. I couldnāt put up with watching 10,000 new houses being built around Wokingham, Crowthorne and Bracknell. Had my vaccination in Bridport. Like yours, very well organised. Time of appointment was 12.00 to 12.10. Vaccination done at 12.04. Most impressed.
February 15, 2021
Mike
Certainly agree with your comment about the massive house builds, now changed the landscape from semi rural to urban, not a single green gap now from Ascot to Theale.
February 15, 2021
Knowing the experience of people in other parts of the country, the healthcare system in Dorset is well above average. We live in Ferndown in East Dorset and friends in Exeter ( including a GP ) are equally complimentary about the service. Still no side effects of our A-Z jabs given on Saturday.
February 14, 2021
We both had the AstraZ one week ago, over 70s cohort. Not a single symptom for either of us – no shoulder ache, or joint aches, no headaches (even after a medium sized celebratory glass of red wine a few hours later! Its all down to your genetic make up – winners and losers. Who knows why.
February 14, 2021
Sorry to hear that mate. Take care.
February 14, 2021
Good morning Sir John
The WHO has confirmed research which show how PCR tests with higher cycle thresholds can produce a high number of false positives implying that PCR results may lead to restrictions for large groups of people who do not present an infection risk.
Online research suggests that many US labs are currently working with 35 to 45 cycles, while many European labs work with 30 to 40 cycles. This difference alone is sufficient to explain international differences between Covid cases and, by logical extension, Covid deaths.
Can you please find out when and how UK guidance for cycle thresholds has been changed over the past year and whether or how the guidance has coincided with government actions or restrictions.
For example, it would have been perfectly possible to lower cycle thresholds shortly after introducing lockdown restrictions and this would have artificially supported the impression that lockdown was working. Raising the threshold could conversely support the idea that more restrictive measures were necessary.
Thank you.
February 14, 2021
That sounds like a good conspiracy theory. Keep it on.
February 14, 2021
Since when is a coincidence a good conspiracy theory? Only in a twisted mind is everything a conspiracy theory. But thanks for giving me the opportunity to clear that up for you.
February 14, 2021
He didn’t say that “everything” was a conspiracy theory, far from it.
However, your saliently silly post has all the hallmarks of one.
February 14, 2021
Hi MiC
So my post is saliently silly?
Are you suggesting that changes in the reported rate of infection should not be examined in the context of the number of cycles being used when analysing PCR tests? Because if you are, the WHO would likely disagree with you.
Or are you suggesting that the public already understands the impact that the number of cycles being used has had on the reported rate of infection and are able to separate this from the necessity to prolong or reduce restrictions in place? Because although there has been ample discussion in mainstream media of changing rates of infection and always the assumption that these are somehow related to government action or lack of action, but very little discussion of how some of the changes may have been affected by the number of cycles being used in PCR testing. Would you agree?
With PCR cycles at the level currently being used in the USA, 97% of those testing positive are in fact very likely infection free. Are the public generally aware of that?
If not, perhaps you would explain what is saliently silly about my post.
February 14, 2021
Why is the post saliently silly?
zorro
February 14, 2021
To put some dots on the is and bars on the ts for you, the maximum effect one could point out would be between the 30 and 45 cycle thresholds, a 50% difference. Can you give a proof of a 50% difference in PCR results, and consequently in Covid-19 death results, please?
February 15, 2021
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1491/5912603
At a cycle threshold (ct) of 25, about 70% of samples remain positive in cell culture (i.e. are infectious); at a ct of 30, 20% of samples remain positive; at a ct of 35, 3% of samples remain positive; and at a ct above 35, no sample remains positive (infectious) in cell culture.
This research has now been confirmed by WHO.
February 15, 2021
https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05
Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2
Date: 13 January 2021
WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2
Target audience: laboratory professionals and users of IVDs.
Purpose of this notice: clarify information previously provided by WHO. This notice supersedes WHO Information Notice for In Vitro Diagnostic Medical Device (IVD) Users 2020/05 version 1, issued 14 December 2020.
Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.
Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.
February 15, 2021
It can be difficult to provide links that John has time to verify and approve, as you are probably aware.
However, search for the following:
A PCR test is amplifying samples through repetitive cycles. The lower the virus concentration in the sample, the more cycles are needed to achieve a positive result. Many US labs work with 35 to 45 cycles , while many European labs work with 30 to 40 cycles.
Recent research has shown that
at a cycle threshold (ct) of 25 , about 70% of samples remained positive in cell culture (ie were infectious); at a ct of 30 , 20% of samples remained positive; at a ct of 35 , 3% of samples remained positive; and at a ct above 35 , no sample remained positive (infectious) in cell culture.
February 21, 2021
matthu, Thanks for all the links.
February 14, 2021
I have read this kind of thing before and like hefner I have tended to dismiss it. However I now begin to think that something may have gone wrong with the ONS testing and possibly it is now throwing up a lot of false positives. Therefore I have written to ask them politely whether this could be the case, and mooting that perhaps the method that they originally adopted when hardly anybody in the UK had had the disease and nobody at all had been vaccinated is still as reliable now, given that about half the adult population will have antibodies either from having caught the disease or from being vaccinated. I am conscious that this is just speculation from somebody lacking any expertise at all in the field, but I cannot help feeling that something is not right. I hope to post about this in more detail later today.
February 14, 2021
Slightly straying from the point of debate, I wish more MPs would take a similar view as our host does in his second paragraph, I hope I am not out of order in asking -rhetorically or not, how many within the self styled backbench “Covid Research Group” of MPs have been educated to a PhD (or better) level within either a medical or pharmaceutical discipline?
February 14, 2021
How many of the cabinet have had such education – few if any I should think.
February 14, 2021
did you mean ‘How many of the cabinet have had a useful education ?’
February 14, 2021
They have at least one psychiatrist among their āsteeringā committee.
February 14, 2021
An irrelevant loaded question, because you already know the answer. The senior management of Vodafone for instance do not have to be leading edge electronic comms engineers to take strategic/operational decisions. You employ and listen to trusted people with the expertise, achieve consensus and go with it.
Maybe you are not aware but it happens daily in companies large and small.
February 14, 2021
@Nig l; It’s not a loaded question at all, just a hard question, obviously with no adequate answer, as your analogy proves! You mention telecoms, does a mobile telecoms company not take expert advice, such as from those in the semiconductor or radio frequency industries, yet when the Govt or Whitehall consult with experts in the health and virology fields with regards to CV19 both the Govt and experts get rubbished (and insulted, ‘Professor Lockdown’, for example).
February 14, 2021
Nig I, jerry, The difference between communications industries and health and virology being that communications decisions are unlikely to be a question of life and death, do not stop social and economic interactions and maybe more importantly that the common Tom, Dick and Harry do not feel compelled to spread their wisdoms on the topics of cellular frequency distributions (obviously there are a few obsessive exceptions as witnessed on this very blog).
February 14, 2021
@hefner; Sorry, are you being serious?!… If the telecoms system, or just one part of it, fails it likely has far more effect on business, social interaction -and dare I say it, life and death (no 999 calls) than any lockdown due to CV19 has, certainly here in the UK.
Oh and those Tom, Dick and Harry’s do indeed feel compelled to spread their wisdoms about such issues, given that voice and broadband is reliant on both cellular and fibre/copper networks, hence why the industry was centre state during the 2019 GE, with both Labour and Tory parties making promises involving public spending commitments.
February 14, 2021
Efficacy means getting things done, effectiveness means doing the right things, efficiency means doing the things right. So, question, is the AZ (or any other) vaccine actually efficacious and/or effective and/or efficient?
The PM commented on 21/01 on the effectiveness of some vaccines. Very interesting is the fact that some āstakeholdersā (Express, Guardian, Sun, M. Hancock, even Sir P. Vallance) appear to use two sometimes three of those words indiscriminately.
Does it matter? Is that a smokescreen?
February 14, 2021
@Jerry
We employ 650 MPs to legislate for our benefit(?). They can not all be expert in all areas but one would hope at Ā£80K plus expenses they would be able to read detailed briefings and come to a conclusion. Those conclusions will likely be coloured by attitude to risk, economics and state interference.
February 14, 2021
Well JCVI is stuffed with qualifications, PhD’s and Profs as are Van Tam and Chris Whitty and yet they failed (in an act of gross negligence in my view) to adjust for Gender in the vaccine priority area. Something that should be obvious to anyone who has a decent maths O level and can think!
This will kill many so what exactly are they playing at? They have not even explained this huge gender discrimination – despite being told of this huge error.
February 14, 2021
@LL; I’m sure, if there is any scientific evidence, rather than just personal opinion, that an adjustment for gender in vaccine priority is needed the experts would make such a case, but at the end of the day they are not the ones making policy – didn’t Mrs Thatcher once say something like, advisor’s advise, government’s govern?…
February 14, 2021
What more evidence do you need? It is very clear just from Covid death figures that a man is at about the same risk as a women five years older. It follows directly from those figs. Ministers indeed to blame if they were given this advice by JCVI!
February 14, 2021
@LL; Well perhaps, but then what about those who have an occupational risk of developing COPD (perhaps already being pre-symptom/diagnosis, thus with a higher but unknown vulnerability to the effect of CV19), surely these people, what ever their age, known health status or gender [1], should take priority over those who spend the majority of their working life in a modern offices and who can often work from home? What is more, the above, ‘historical’ occupational risks, is most likely the reason for the higher mortality figures you highlight. A mass-vaccination plan needed to be made, and lines have had to be drawn somewhere, no one will ever please all of the people all of the time.
[1] remember how many a wife of someone working with asbestos went on to suffer from asbestosis
February 14, 2021
Advisors advise, ministers decide.
February 14, 2021
People can very often be educated into stupidity. As we saw with the senior fire officers sending people back to their flats at Genville Tower long, long after it was clearly to anyone sensible (just from a glance at TV) that the fire was totally out of control and would slowly consume the whole building.
Or indeed we see it with the climate alarmist group think religion in Parliament, Universities and Schools. What sensible person would imagine we can predict the climate in 100 years (when we do not even know all the inputs) or control world temperatures just by reducing C02 emissions (when this is just one of millions of input to climate). Or indeed spend millions now on C02 reductions now (for the claimed benefit of future generations) when there are so many far better ways to save lives now with the money. See Bjorn Lomborg – How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the World a Better Place.
February 14, 2021
Jerry
They got the army in to deal with logistics and supply, for both PPE and the Vaccine, a very sensible decision
February 14, 2021
In response to a group of 36 Tory MPs (CRG) who wrote to the PM saying that “there will be no justification for Covid laws once the nine priority groups have been vaccinated” the PM responded that he plans a “cautious” reopening.
Why does that feel like he is dragging his heels?
Why does it seem that the government is constantly suggesting reasons why the restrictive measures will continue indefinitely?
Is it likely that all the oppressive lock-down legislation will be removed by May? Somehow I don’t think so.
Not when we will have legislation mandating HEALTH PASSPORTS, and when we don’t know what other oppressive laws are in the pipeline.
Other countries are already creating laws to IMPOSE VACCINES ON THOSE THAT DO NOT WANT IT. How long before the UK follows that lead?
We should be thankful to this group of Tory MPs for challenging the establishment, and we should all get behind them, because the flaky justifications for lock-down are looking more and more transparently untrue.
We should all be aware of the good work done by the World Freedom Alliance on this subject.
Reply I think 63 MPs signed the letter
February 14, 2021
Just 63 MPs! Well it is better than the five who voted against (plus a few abstentions) the insane Climate Change Act or the tiny number of MPs against May’s Net Zero Carbon lunacy!
February 14, 2021
My apologies – (finger trouble)
Some now suggest 70 may have signed the letter.
February 14, 2021
And the 9th vulnerability level is down to the 50 year olds, so it is getting pretty low risk. In England in the 40 to 59 group (NHS data, I don’t know where the 50-59 only is) 538 people with no pre-existing condition have died in hospital with covid (0.7% of the England in hospital, with covid deaths).
February 14, 2021
Of course we will get better at treating Covid 19. That is how the world works – mankind gets better at doing stuff. When the Thatcher and Reagan governments ignored HIV in the very early 80s AIDS was a killer disease. Not now. In the developed world you can live with HIV. Though AIDS still kills thousands in poor countries. Everybody assumed that Ebola was a death sentence and yet during the last Ebola outbreak we successfully treated some people.
We are already better at treating Covid 19 than we were in the first wave. But there is a long way to go.
February 14, 2021
I was there. I ended up in the St Mary’s hospital sitting on a bench with other people waiting to be examined and equally worried that they had AIDS. The heartbreak and terror was there to see. I left that consultation a changed person.
It most definitely was NOT ignored by the Government of the day and there was a Public Health information campaign, a dark cloud fell about club life and attitudes to free and easy sex most definitely changed in that period.
Per patient AIDS research has far outstripped cancer research even though the greatest barrier to contracting AIDS were simple lifestyle changes and precautions. It was a wake up call for me. Restraint and fidelity were key and life became more fulfilling for it.
But ignored ? Don’t talk such utter rot.
February 14, 2021
Treatment rather than vaccines was always the way out of this.
We are “saving the NHS” not lives and the only way to “save the NHS” is to be able to quickly free up ward space by effective treatment. Or by benign mutation.
February 14, 2021
Narrow Shoulders: “We are āsaving the NHSā not lives and the only way to āsave the NHSā is to be able to quickly free up ward space by effective treatment.”
No there is the course of action this government has pursued; transfer all COVID-19 infected patients from the NHS into the ‘Care Homes’ ( misnomer of the decade ), to die and infect all the ‘Care Home’ residents too.
No price is too high to ‘save the NHS’, go and bang your pots about that.
February 14, 2021
trying to cure symptoms better than prevention? Really? Oh dear.
Why do we bother with the amazing number of vaccinations that have almost eradicated diseases?
February 14, 2021
Fred H.
Because of the age profile that the viruses impact, the rate of evolution of the viruses mentioned and the cost/availability of alternatives.
February 14, 2021
wouldn’t working on stopping the spread be more effective? Then the age profile of deaths and long hospital stays would become far less concerning. Typically the >75s have not been going out, and when are masked up, respecting 2m etc. Just how are they catching it? Visitors to their homes / Care homes? Touching the delivery foodstuffs/letters/parcels? Opening windows and getting the virus wafting in? What ‘rules’ are being broken by them? Does mixed generation / cultural ways of living bear a major cause. So why are we not told?
February 14, 2021
Not true, it is because of vaccines that the world population does not die of what were common infectious diseases in the past as smallpox, tuberculosis, mumps, measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, typhoid, …
Have you ever considered that you are able to write such a &Ā£*@# comment simply because people before and around you have accepted to be vaccinated?
February 14, 2021
We are continually told that none of the vaccines actually prevent the disease @hef just improves the symptoms. Treating the symptoms therefore takes on greater significance does it not?
February 14, 2021
Treating people showing symptoms is certainly the first task, vaccinating the rest of potentially susceptible people to help them not to get the disease or to get it in a milder form (now that vaccines are available) is as important.
February 14, 2021
Hefner: “Not true, it is because of vaccines that the world population does not die of what were common infectious diseases in the past as smallpox, tuberculosis, mumps, measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, typhoid, ā¦”
Right. Vaccines may have played a part. But typhoid, really? Provision of clean drinking water, sewers to carry human waste from open street gutters, you know – British Civil engineering led by people like Joseph Basiljet, 1819 -1891, coupled with real epidemiologists like Dr John Snow, 1813 – 1858. They are what removed the threat of Typhoid and Cholera from the British population.
Oh, and tuberculosis? That was all but eradicated in Britian by the 1970s. Now look at the TB map of London, guess what brought it back?
February 15, 2021
APL, Indeed, youāre right, the major impact on typhoid was through better quality water and sanitation.
Thatās why the UK should maintain its FCO/DfID budget as a non-negligible part of it is directed towards Water and Sanitation projects.
February 15, 2021
Bazalgette – and TB came back to those NOT vaccinated.
February 15, 2021
Puts me in mind of another Spike Milligan poem:
There we leave her! There we leave her
Far from where her kindred roam.
I the Scarlet Fever, Scarlet Fever, Scarlet Fever
Convalescence home.
February 15, 2021
Third line should be “In the Scarlet…” of course. Careless of me.
February 14, 2021
As a well known columnist points out today.
MPs should have insisted on following the plan already in place.
UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
Delete?
February 14, 2021
Average age of “CV19 deaths” – 82 years 4 months.
Pity the many younger collateral deaths to date with many more to come.
February 14, 2021
Child ‘volunteers’ are to be vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Chldren, by and large, don’t get the disease. What wicked madness is this?!
February 14, 2021
Don’t expect integrity, common sense and decency from the Tories. They’re captured by the NHS, NEU and Stonewall and therefore anything and everything is possible. It’s the price we have to pay for a Tory party that is now morally bankrupt without a shred of decency. They will sell their soul to the devil to maintain their place at the table of power
Trump’s acquittal from charges brought by thugs in the Democrat party has caused the greasy Tories considerable inconvenience.
Always focus on what the Tories never challenge or never criticise. That reveals their true politics
February 14, 2021
+1
Powerful, accurate, and instructive
February 14, 2021
They may get it (my two grandchildren (11 and 14) got it from school in Marchā20 but were not much more affected than with a bout of flu, their parents in their 40s got it too. It was Covid, their mother happens to be a biologist working on genetic sequencing and could properly check it).
It is not because children do not show heavy symptoms that they cannot pass it on.
The wicked madness is with people unable to understand/accept such simple information.
February 14, 2021
Iago,
I agree that targeting children at low risk would seem highly untimely given the limited knowledge on the long term and breadth of effectiveness of the first generation vaccines. Given the MSM reports surrounding the second generation Uni of Nott vaccine, and the ongoing T-cell studies of the current vaccines, it does seem inappropriate (unethical) to target children (if that is actually happening).
February 14, 2021
If you look online you will find a variety of experts in the field (and not just in the UK) who are saying that it is important for vaccine trials to now extend to children above the age of 6, and it is nothing to do with the UK government or the Conservative Party imposing this.
February 14, 2021
But do they spread it?
February 14, 2021
The best treatment is to get vaccinated and be protected, at least, from serious illness.
After the announcement on Thursday that 65-69 year-olds would be invited for vaccination next week, I received a letter on Friday. I booked online and was offered an appointment 3 miles away at 5pm the next afternoon, Saturday. On Saturday morning, my wife received her letter and she booked for the Sunday.
Early Saturday afternoon I had a call saying that I could go earlier as they had had some cancellations (?)
I asked if my wife could come as well and we were both vaccinated at 15:30. No queuing, in and out in less than ten minutes. Brilliant !
February 14, 2021
PS : we both had the A-Z vaccination, no side effects whatsoever.
February 14, 2021
I had a similar AZ experience last Friday following a phone call from surgery on Wednesday afternoon. Only disagreement I have had to date was a very sore arm yesterday, getting much better today after taking paracetamol.
And BTW, it was the regular surgery staff helped by two volunteers who had modified the actual āright-of-wayā within the building as to minimise possible contacts. It does not seem that this particular Thames Valley surgery had needed any āreinforcementsā from military specialists nor private sector.
February 15, 2021
hefner, it is very impressive how the doctor’s clinics have found the time during this health crisis to do this themselves, very. The government pays Ā£12.58 per vaccine compared to Ā£10.06 for a flu vaccine, this is supposed to account for post-vaccine observation although the people I know that had the jab have been speeded through the process quite productively no sitting, no waiting, but sent to their car to wait after the jab without observation.
You have got to wonder though what happens to all the patients these nurses administering the jab would normally see each day when they are on this full time.
February 14, 2021
Fantastic news on both the treatments and the vaccinations. Not so fantastic news that the scientists seem to want to keep us locked down forever. This is not an option.
Every death by road (where the journey should have been taken by rail or air – the safest modes), every death by suicide, every death by murder, every death by poverty, by missed medical appointments and by avoidable illnesses, cancers etc should go down as lockdown deaths and should be counted as such until the economic depression is over.
They should be counted with the same shoddy disregard for facts that the CV-19 deaths were counted.
Lockdown kills too.
The scientists are one-track-minded and don’t have to worry about their jobs or their bills being paid.
February 14, 2021
It was reported in the Sunday Telegraph that one dose gives 46% protection after 7 days and 67% after 21 days. Younger people who are not yet vaccinated spend a longer period in hospital (because they don’t die ).
Loosening the restrictions would therefore see hospitalisations increase in the next four to five months but fewer deaths. It is therefore looking necessary to keep restrictions in place for longer than the newspapers and backbenchers are calling for.
Boris therefore needs to act firmly and not backslide.
February 14, 2021
All I’m asking for is fair and equivalent counting because they are totally ignoring death by lock down. I believe that there is lots of death by lock down and this should be counted long after the emergency has ended – to the end of the economic recession/depression and should also be counted across the poorer economies which have suffered unemployment owing to the economic downturn.
‘Scientific’ Sage cannot be allowed to get away with unscientific counting of 28 day run-down-by-bus deaths as ‘victim of covid’ whilst people who kill themselves because of lockdown are not counted as anything at all.
How can we reach any sort of cost-benefit analysis and please don’t tell me that we had to save the NHS because the NHS did shut down. It did fail to treat something like 50% of its usual patients.
Lockdown kills and it will continue to kill long after the disease has abated.
February 15, 2021
The ONS reports number of deaths broken down by sex. Interesting.
February 14, 2021
No Longer Anonymous,
+1.
As one can see in Euromomo data England deaths in younger people is worrying. It does not appear in other European countries and the reasons for these deaths need to be identified.
E.g. select 15-44 age group, England compared to others.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country
February 15, 2021
The graph you refer to is clearly a worrying anomaly. Such an unprecedented spike must be investigated.
Could it be that the numbers dying in that age group are so low that very few extra deaths show up as a large increase on the graph ?
February 14, 2021
Even if we were allowed to eat and drink in pub gardens at Easter I doubt that I would accept any invitation to do so, not unless the ONS had revised their infection surveys down to safer levels than I currently anticipate.
February 14, 2021
In fact checking back to last September I finally decided not to do it when the ONS had estimated the infection level at about 0.2%, rather than the 0.6% I presently project for Easter.
February 14, 2021
“All possible medical options should be fairly and promptly assessed.” – indeed they should, and thank you for being amongst the few who have pressed the Government to do this.
As Dr. Roger Seheult (of YouTube renown) has said, either ivermectin works or it does not but we should find out. I believe there are some serious studies being undertaken, including in Virginia, USA.
February 14, 2021
And doubtless hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin will be ignored because they’re cheap and effective – two words big pharma don’t like.
Many of us can recognise when we’re being taken for fools.
February 14, 2021
2 hospital studies (one in Spain, one in Argentina) on the efficacy of hydroxycholoroquine were published barely 3 months ago, and absolutely no benefit was found. Very recent international studies have been carried out on the use of ivermectin, and again no benefits were found – you can find this in The Lancet by the way.
February 14, 2021
It feels as though we are locked in a WWI mentality of perpetuation for justification. The politicians could’ve stopped the war one week earlier and saved, for example, Wilfrid Owen’s life. If they could’ve stopped it one week earlier, why not one month earlier? Two months, three, a year, and so on … Like the first world war politicians and generals, we’ve gone past the point of being able to justify the lock down and other measures but we seem to be afraid to come out of it for fear of no longer being able to justify it.
February 14, 2021
The justification was in the accelerating upwards trends in the infection rate on the charts here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#infections
The infection rate was going up by about 3% a day and left unchecked it would have broken the NHS.
February 14, 2021
Sir John, if you are going to ask questions about treatments can you specifically ask about Synairgen’s interferon inhaler (SNG001 – made in Britain!) and calcifediol (a form of vitamin D3 which is most bio-available). Both of these have shown very positive results (ZERO deaths) in small trials and if I were to get the ‘Chinese virus’ then I would want to be treated with these!
February 14, 2021
We have to get the second jab into the vulnerable sooner
February 14, 2021
Sir John, I see that the Petitions Committee will hold a virtual e-petitions session on Monday 22/2 at 4.30 to discuss the petition “Trigger Article 16. We want unfettered GB-NI trade”.
I will be watching that live on YouTube. Will you be taking part?
February 14, 2021
An interesting article:
https://briefingsforbritain.co.uk/eu-trade-bans-the-gloves-must-come-off/
“ET trade bans: The gloves must come off”
“While the UK has a strong claim against the EU under WTO law with regards to the shellfish ban, it has a somewhat weaker position in terms of options vis a vis the unnecessary and provocative trade barriers which the EU has created between Great Britain / Northern Ireland trade, such as those involving preposterous rabies checks and soil on tyres. Challenging such measures through the WTO (again as SPS Agreement breaches) would likely be impossible because the Withdrawal Agreement prohibits other fora for resolving disputes under Article 168 on exclusivity. This was one of the flaws of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) because it means that the WAās untested internal dispute settlement system must be used for all complaints.”
February 14, 2021
The Sunday Telegraph reports that Michael Gove is considering the alternative “mutual enforcement” proposal put forward by the Lord Trimble and other unionists:
https://centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Correcting-the-Damage-Caused-by-the-Northern-Ireland-Protocol-5-Feb-21.pdf
But we need not believe that he really intends to do anything about it, we know that he has form on dropping hints to the media to play people along.
February 14, 2021
I’ll just repeat:
Two, of many things that have uneased me, are related to treatments.
(i) The āgold-standardisingā of random controlled trials. RCTs are gold-standard for internal validity (strong evidence of causation …
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/02/12/the-state-of-the-pandemic/#comment-1209980
February 14, 2021
Two days ago I posted a comment here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/02/12/the-state-of-the-pandemic/#comment-1210004
expressing concern that the ONS survey is showing a much slower rate of decline of the infection in England than another study, and added further comments that to get the infection level down as rapidly as projected by the team at King’s College London would require shrinkage of 15% a day, an order of magnitude greater than the ONS survey suggests.
Further to that the leader of that team, Professor Tim Spector, was interviewed on the Sky News Sophy Ridge programme this morning and he made these claims:
A. That the number of cases has dropped by about 80% since January 1.
That would mean a rate of decline of 3.6% a day over 44 days.
B. That currently we are in a similar state to where we were in October.
That would not be inconsistent with the ONS chart for the level of infection.
C. “… in a couple of weeks we are going to be where we were at the end of May , beginning of June …”.
That would definitely be inconsistent with the ONS data, because around that time at the beginning of last summer the ONS estimated that only 0.06% of the population of England were infected:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020#main-points
and for the infection to drop from the present level of around 1.15% to that low level of 0.06% over the next 14 days would need an extraordinarily rapid shrinkage of the infection, about 19% relative a day, not the 1.5% a day I calculate from the recent ONS data.
(As 0.81 raised to the power of 14 = 0.0523, then the 1.15% extrapolated for today x 0.0523 = 0.06%, the infection rate at the end of May.)
I have pointed this out my polite query to ONS, wondering whether the fact that about half the population now have antibodies might mean that they are increasingly measuring virus which is present but somehow inactivated, as well as active virus.
Incidentally I looked at this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
suggested by DaveK, and found that their chart for cases has been going down by only 1.0% a day.
February 14, 2021
Individuals taking more control of their health is always going to be a force for good e.g buying easily obtainable supplements – Vitamin D being the example amongst others -(great for Holland and Barret).
Also more exercise – going to a gym and burning off fat.
The hard fact is that it’s primarily old people who are more likely to use the health service not young. However its old people who are more likely to take note of health advise especially now.
All this and more helps maintain a strong immune system that in turn avoids ICU.
New medical products that significantly reduce reliance on ICU is very welcome.
Covid is going to be around for years in many forms, the key is to reduce and prevent deaths through targeted health advise and new medications.
There is scientific suggestions that once the specific groups are vaccinated ie over 50s then herd immunity could mutate the virus to become less aggressive as the body becomes more immune.
I know there is resistance to a so called Covid vaccine passport, however the wider world countries may insist on one if people are going to travel any where outside the UK, and in fact some nations of the UK may insist on one for English stay in that country.
February 14, 2021
There is a scientific process to go through with drugs before they can be prescribed for certain conditions.Occasionally in the hands of a Physician drugs can be prescribed off license after a rigorous process.Many health practitioners can be prescribers and use drugs from the British National formulary. One doesn’t need to have had a few years at medical school, however in ITU situations leeway is given . All practitioners can be struck off for using off license drugs. Simple steroids and anti inflammatory drugs have been used for swollen tissue for decades ; there is nothing new. It may be new to you and other modern prescribers , but medication has trends . I prescribe as a Nurse Practitioner steroids frequently. It may be well if people like yourself stop asserting that only those who have got a modern medical degree can prescribe and infer the competence in that respect. Remember some practitioners have been working in and learning medicine for many more years than 30 . Many Nurses work prescribing mixtures of opiates that no Dr would ever be able to do without specific training and so forth and so on , Stop perpetuating this arrogance.
February 14, 2021
The WHO recently sent a mission to China/Wuhan to investigate the source of Covid-19.
Unfortunately there was no clear answer.
Perhaps the research team might have spent their time more profitably discovering how a country with 1.5 billion people can manage to limit cases to 89K and deaths to 4.6K.
An extraordinary achievement.
February 15, 2021
all figures supplied by CPC. and a bucket of salt.
February 14, 2021
Petition aside:
The do not roll out a vaccine passport petition https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/569957 has gone through the required 100,000 signatures, though the website indicates that debates are still not happening.
February 14, 2021
This ongoing dictatorship needs to be stopped.
February 14, 2021
Sorry but if other countries want this for travel then I want a vaccine passport. I may have to pay for it but I don’t care. Why should those that chose to take the vaccine be penalised?
February 15, 2021
We don’t need a separate and expensive vaccine passport for international travel.
A GP’s receptionist could verify that you have been vaccinated and put a stamp in your passport.
The cost would be minimal, just enough to cover the person’s time.
February 14, 2021
Just recommend people take Vitamin D anyway, in advance of the trials. Canāt do any harm and May do some good.
February 14, 2021
BUILD BACK TREATMENTS BETTER
February 21, 2021
Deaths due to Covid mainly seem to be due to the immune system overreacting, and seemingly this is due to cytokines and apparently the production of said cytokines are aided by high blood glucose levels. There is a drug called Liraglutide which lowers the levels of glucose in the blood as is my understanding, so in relation to “Build back treatments better” given Covid is not likely to go away entirely albeit the vaccinating the vulnerable should help with mortality; maybe it would be an idea to find out exactly what we are trying (I don’t think we are currently trying Liraglutide) and if we could try other things, get on with doing it.
February 21, 2021
I think treatments are very important because Covid restrictions (lockdown etc) are not practical long-term, and vaccines appear not to be a panacea; variants & hesitancy. Therefore I believe it is of the upmost importance the author continues to raise the issue of treatments “of whatever type” going forward, if we are to ease the pressure on the NHS and thus allow us to live with the virus given it is unlikely to be eradicated.
February 15, 2021
Repurposed drugs have been proven to be effective for the last 9 months but pharma-funded scientists have dissembled, cheated and downright lied to ensure that they are not made available. It is scandalous and the people involved should be prosecuted.
Vaccinations are currently only a temporary measure, but even worse is that it is apparent that there is a high percentage of subsequent illnesses (and more deaths in care homes) which shouldn’t be surprising because the vaxes have not been fully trialled (despite the rhetoric), and there is no evidence of their efficacy, notably because no scientists around the world seem to have fully identified what is referred to as Covid, other than it shares some similarities with other SARS infections!
Gvmts (not just UK) need to immediately review the scientists from whom they take advice.
February 15, 2021
Prevention is better than cure. Get some sunshine with a friend and get that heart rate up for at least an hour a day. Don’t eat too much junk – obesity is a real killer. Get out more, lose the flab, protect the NHS, save lives.