When Rishi Sunak announced a Ā£400 payment to every electricityĀ bill payer I was concerned about that way of offering some relief. I would have preferred tax cuts on energy which would directly cut the CPI/RPI measurements of inflation. The government thought these cash payments might qualify as reductions in energy bills and help the CPI figure. Instead after considerable delay the ONS has decided to call them “current transfers” to households that do not cut the price of power.
They rightly go on to remind us they have the legal power to make a judgement about such matters, They say “Decisions on whether to include rebates, subsidies and discounts in our consumer prices inflation statistics are taken on aĀ case by case basis”. As these Ā£400 payments cannot be withdrawn and spent on anything else but take the form of a cut in the electricity bills that need to be paid there is a perfectly good case to say this is a cut in the price of electricity for all users.
All this matters. Allowing the full bill cost to boost the CPI without allowing for the discount that is available means we face higher inflation with all the knock on effects. This decision will increase public spending and the deficit given the way some spending items are directly linked to the inflation index. It raises the repayment amount for indexed debt.Ā The Treasury should have asked the electricity companies to put it on bills as a discount to the price of power, which is what it is. A sum equivalent isĀ payable by the Treasury to the companies as a subsidy. This is another missed opportunity.
September 2, 2022
Is it not too late to change the way the money or discount is transferred/made?
The vast majority of billpayers don’t care how they get a Ā£400 reduction, would understand the point made in this post, and would consider it foolish for the government to continue with the payment using a method that will harm us all when an alternative exists.
Oh, but that would mean the government had to accept it had made an error of judgement. So nothing will change…
September 2, 2022
JR, you can changes it next week! Get rid of ONS and OBR, no use to taxpayer just a fire wall to prevent blame from Govt. Kachin another saving.
September 2, 2022
JR, could you explain the Ā£50,000 foreign office jolly to the Lake District to us taxpayers, perhaps they could explain their disgraceful conduct by running away from Afghanistan while their boss refused to return from holiday- people suffered and died? Perhaps you could explain the Johnson family trip from Cornwall? Net stupid Johnson only spoke about his nutty net stupid policy this week and told us how to save money! What next how to decorate your rented home with Ā£100,000 wall paper then leave?
Time for the taxpayer funded plain to go and PM use schedule flights.
September 2, 2022
JR, could you tell us how EU level playing fields to environment and state aide will help or hinder UK? How will these influence all policy decisions.
I do not like your continued blame quangos theme that your govt could have set fired to or changed rules they operate to. It is your party and govt fault, you had 12 years to make any changes you like and got elected on bonfire of quangos!
September 2, 2022
Yes, I’ve been saying for ages that these bodies should be scrapped. Firstly, their forecasts about GDP or inflation are ALWAYS wrong. They have never got it right. Not once! It is better to not have ANY forecasts than to have wrong ones. Without forecasts you will do what you believe to be right, and if your politics are right then your decisions are right too, whereas if you have forecasts you rely on them – wrongly, as it always turns out – and then take the wrong decision. And secondly, any work that they do which is useful should be done in-house in the Treasury. By having independent bodies you lose power and control – as this case has demonstrated – and if I were a politician then I would want as much power and control as possible. The fact that the pathetic puppets in parliament don’t want to be the ones who actually make the decisions proves how weak and useless they all are!
September 2, 2022
More importantly than definitions of what is and what isn’t inflationary is why the political State’s offering financial assistance to pay energy bills of each household in the UK? Is this an act of genuine compassion or a sinister political move?
I lived through the 1970’s and recall a time when we had no central heating and a simple fire in the front room. No telephone, no car and no inside bathroom. Did my brothers and sisters suffer? No, we didn’t. My parents worked hard, 7 days a week, both of them. Thatcher was elected in 1979 and life blossomed. I don’t recall food banks either. Life was real.
The State’s role in our lives is becoming oppressive across all fronts. It might make life temporarily easier for the Tory party to embrace Socialism but it is creating a nation of dependents that Labour will exploit in time and will eventually bankrupt this country
September 2, 2022
Never a truer word spoken Dom. My childhood was the same and even when I got married we only had an electric fire in the lounge. I also lived through extortionate mortgage interest rates and the scourge of unemployment that followed. Times were tough but we got through.
September 2, 2022
Indeed this morning’s post should be about how we get back to self sufficiency personally, corporately and nationally, not whinging about whether 0.01% or whatever added to the CPI. Sad state of affairs.
September 2, 2022
+1
Expectations from welfare claimants have changed. They now demand as an absolute right a chosen life style to be equal or better off than those who work. Look at illegals who will only put up with four star hotels, no barracks for them!
Additional Cash payments dropping through the door for welfare people today, why not food vouchers? A lot of these people cannot budget! Why give taxpayers cash! This is not free money. There is no magic money tree.
During covid supermarkets put up signs saying food vouchers for food not cigarettes, music etc! When will govt learn to stop wasting our hard earned money on the greedy feckless!
September 2, 2022
Hope, if they continue to reward max benefits for min work (and nothing expected in return for benefits in the community), they will get more of it. 1 in 4 families is now headed by a lone parent, which hasn’t changed in 20 years. 44% of children will not live out their childhood with both parents due to separation, bereavement or because they’re taken into social care.
The married women and co-habiting women I know working full-time are worse off, they’ve had their personal allowance frozen, childcare has gone up, at least NI went back down as most of them earn under Ā£35k, they don’t get the Ā£200 per child for uniform, free school meals, the rent paid, you have to get rid of Daddy for that.
September 2, 2022
+1
Tory cultural Marxism for you.
September 2, 2022
The state’s increasing interference is indeed concerning as is the population’s expectation of veing interfered with. Stockholm syndrome.
However, as with Covid support measures, we need additional help precisely because of ill considered earlier state interference by mandating net zero (and in the case of Covid locking down the entire population instead of the sick and the most likely affected).
The more the stare helps us the more assistance we will inevitably need.
September 2, 2022
+1
I agree with Sir John’s proposal of cutting energy tax but would go further and cut VAT on all goods and on vehicle fuel commensurate with the Treasury tax windfalls that have arisen because of recent inflation.
Tax is inflationary too !!! Yet we don’t hear Anne Widdecombe banging on about the “tax inflation spiral !!!”
Ditch green taxes as well. People are cutting back on non essential activities anyway and are going green by default.
September 2, 2022
The fall in living standards is going to be shocking. Few homes have a fireplace now. There will be no pubs to huddle in nor fish and chip treats and we must NOT have the situation whereby the working poor are cold while the unemployed have central heating.
We are already being told that we won’t be able to use washing machines “… after work.” so here we go again.
Rashford ignored those who couldn’t afford school meals but were ‘too rich’ to get free ones and other benefits. So the working poor will be unable to wash clothes whilst being forced to pay for others to be able to.
September 2, 2022
Give the guy a break – guilty of worrying about but donated and got others to donate food to children getting no breakfast or lunch! He’s no politician trading ‘ah but what about this situation etc’ – he just knew about hunger from his own childhood. Ignore it if you can!
September 2, 2022
Interesting comment from a correspondent to Dr Tim Morgan’s Surplus Energy Economics site
“I’m a reservist with 4Para and we’ve had a load of civil unrest training recently.It would seem that we’re training as auxiliaries to the police -a sort of rapid reaction force that gets called up on short notice.
September 2, 2022
You could get to be very busy in the future, and ‘sorting out’ trouble from cold and hungry people in the streets while the fat rich luxuriate abroad….
September 2, 2022
I believe Ministers and senior civil servants have clearly breached their duties managing the energy supplies of this country. If criminal prosecutions are not forthcoming the laws relating to Misconduct in Public Office need to be abandoned as they will be meaningless.
āMisconduct in public office is an offence at common law triable only on indictment. It carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. It is an offence confined to those who are public office holders and is committed when the office holder acts (or fails to act) in a way that constitutes a breach of the duties of that office.ā – CPS
September 2, 2022
Top marks to Javelin for this.
One might hope that a just a smattering of such indictments ( pour encourager les autres – Byngo! ) could concentrate minds wonderfully in Westminster, but fear that the state of corrupt āchumocracyā be too far advanced there for justice to be done.
September 2, 2022
MPs are exempt from misconduct in public office. They create rules for themselves and policed by themselves! Got worse after 2009 scandal not better because they hide investigations from public! Westminster is a corrupt institution.
Over half MPs were overpaid or fiddled their expenses. This was institutional. It would be inconceivable that those who did not knew what was going on. There was mass false accounting which should have resulted in mass arrests. A token few were given up to appease the public as a smoke screen.
September 2, 2022
Vaccination of children with pointless, rather ineffective and often dangerous vaccines when the children and young were never even at any real risk (still continuing), the absurdly extended and hugely net damaging lockdowns, gross mismanagement of energy policy and the NHS that is killing and will kill tens of thousands… but nothing significant will happen to anyone guilty – might be a bit like the blood scandal or Hillsborough an inquiry or similar – but perhaps in 20+ years time or so and some tiny compensation. They are still doing nothing even to find out the extend or causes of the current non Covid excess deaths running at circa 13% up.
September 2, 2022
Listen to Mark Stein on GB News every evening 8pm. He highlighted the fact that an individual together with other interested parties have collated data pertaining to deathd and serious illness from the vaccines from GPS and hospitals around the UK. The figures are truly shocking. This is also the case in Germany where the authorities and governments are reluctant to look into it. If it were any other drug it would have been withdrawn until they were sure of its safety. I hope you chose to print this John and not ignore it like the rest of the media etc.
September 3, 2022
+1
September 2, 2022
Good Morning,
How desperately sad that our host, probably the most honest and financially savvy member of the PCP, seeks to ‘play the game’ of manipulating government statistics for the benefit of his party.
Ducks, walking, quacking… etc, you get the point.
Look at the energy supply route. There are the BIG energy production companies that drill out all the oil and gas and sell this stuff to the ‘retail sellers’ in the UK market. The COST of producing the oil and gas has not increased. The big producers are making so much cash they don’t know what to do with it, because one major world supplier is no longer allowed to sell into the market, having started a war. The retail sellers are losing money and some are/have gone out of business because they can’t raise prices to their customers sufficiently owing to the OFGEN/Government price cap.
What’s out of balance with this picture? One part of the energy industry is taking much more cash from another part of the supply industry, owing to EXCEPTIONAL international conditions.
Solution… anybody?
Reply I have pointed out that our biggest problem is we have to pay very high prices for imported gas and electricity where all that cash is lost and we can do nothing about it. Buying domestic gas at similarly high prices allows us to get 65% of the profits back in tax. If you took all the profits why would anyone supply us gas?
September 2, 2022
+many
I always wonder how they distributed the heat from those hot geysersā¦.Iceland?
It it still happening?
If so, is it private or public?
Hot waterā¦lovely coalā¦almost the same thing bar a fire and a kettle or two!
God wanted us to be warm!
September 2, 2022
We sit on a island of coal & shale gas, surrounded by a sea of oil and subterranean natural gasā¦.and we import LNG, natural gas, wood pellets, oil, diesel & petrol and coal ā utter madness
September 2, 2022
Given that global action can be taken to move to net zero why can’t global action be taken to cap the supply cost? The are after all war and mis guided government(s) action profits
Is that not tree hugging enough Sir John?
September 2, 2022
In a comment further down the thread:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/09/02/the-ons-makes-life-more-difficult/#comment-1338661
I suggest that the apparently huge profits of the oil- and gas-extracting companies should be seen in some kind of proper perspective, for example as 0.8% of the global GDP which they still very largely drive.
What should they do with the extra cash they are getting through high wholesale prices? Invest it in the UK government bonds that will be needed for large scale state intervention to limit retail price rises:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/31/consultation-on-electricity-regulation/#comment-1338284
Looking back to the 1970’s and the massive hikes in the oil price engineered by OPEC led by that chap my dad always jokingly called “shake-yer-money”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Zaki_Yamani
a lot of the additional profits ended up being recycled into investments in the oil consuming countries.
September 2, 2022
It does look like fiddling the figures to make the government look less incompetent. I am no economist, but surely if prices go up, it is inflation, whoever pays for it. Suppose for a moment that we could all comfortably afford to pay these rip off prices without government help, would that not be regarded as inflation? I think Sir J’s attempt to move the goalposts is not helpful to the consumer, just his government who have largely caused the problem in the first place. Sir John, you do not have to take all the profits away, the companies have been perfectly happy with margins for the last 40 years, so why is it essential that they now rip off the consumer who has to be baled out by the government? How long can this continue, how high must the prices go before you say enough is enough?
September 2, 2022
Thank for your reply. But you do not address the real big problem: western governments, ours, need to comprehend the effect of this sudden and exceptional rise in energy costs on a large portion of the population. Under our energy cost structure, we have a starkly clear transfer of wealth from the many to the few. The many, if they find they are going cold or cannot feed their children, will not meekly and accept it.
The cause, we are part of a war, indirectly, we need to think on these issues in this new economic environment. A ‘band-aid’ solution won’t do if we are to avoid REAL domestic problems.
September 2, 2022
Of course the Ā£400 could be spent on something else but ultimately it comes out of a whole household budget.
September 2, 2022
Yes. But that budget is probably burgeoning in a way unfamiliar to the tax payer.
First hand experience, believe meā¦you would not believe it!!
September 2, 2022
Would be better if they people can spend it as they choose. Some might prefer more heating, or food others to visit friends or relatives or fix the roof or buy electric blankets or go for a swim and shower there instead of home. Freedom of choice is what is needed as to how this money is spent.
September 2, 2022
Ll,
No, welfare claimants will fritter, still go to food banks to subsidise life style without shame then attend council offices for emergency money and get even more. People on welfare should get food vouchers.
September 2, 2022
What a cruel uncaring remark, look at yourself in a mirror- can you live with what you see?
September 3, 2022
Absolutely.
Look after the disabled, those genuinely unable to work. Not those who choose not to. That is a life style choice they opt for.
September 2, 2022
Good morning.
There are some 20 million households in the UK. At Ā£400 per household that is Ā£8bn pounds. How much does a nuclear, coal or gas fired power station cost ? Probably a lot more but, at least I get something for my cash.
We here have often stated Sir John about the incompetence and waste of government. These payments, like so much else about this outgoing administration, are nothing but a very expensive publicity stunt, designed to shore up a failing PM and government.
Your dragged out charade of choosing a new party leader is, at last, coming to a close, and we shall soon see whether or not you have finally learnt something over the last 12 years.
You have taken your time, but time is not what you have.
September 2, 2022
I have a feeling it will be all talk and no real action on the things we really need changing. You know…all those things normal sane people can see are necessary for a thriving country.
September 2, 2022
Election perhaps May 2024 so only 19 months left. What can Liz get done in that time? Even with her decent (for now anyway) majority?
September 2, 2022
Ll,
I think JR has been attracting opinion here to help them out of the self made Tory economic mess.
September 2, 2022
If she means business we will see action that we have waited for inside the first 100 days.
Under Johnson we got the feelgood bullshit but nothing happened but obfuscation.
September 2, 2022
That is why we must spend Ā£8 billion, or Ā£80 billion, or more, to buy time.
The UK government should set retail prices for energy for the coming year which would not be the same as last year but only slightly higher, an increase which could be borne relatively easily by almost all retail customers but which would still give them a significant financial incentive to improve their energy efficiency and reduce their consumption, and then for the time being subsidise the energy providers, not the retail customers, for the increased wholesale prices that they will have to pay for supplies. That will limit the carry over to CPI and so to interest rates and so mitigate the damage to the UK economy. And the government should carry on with that programme for future years, setting gradually higher retail prices if necessary, while working to reduce our dependence on imported energy. Yes, it smacks of socialism, communism even, and yes, it will cost taxpayers a fortune, but plunging the country into a deep recession will cost much more in both money and human terms.
Oh, and we should stop the war in Ukraine immediately. Tell Zelensky that he will have to accept partition of the existing territory of Ukraine, partition that he and his Russophobic faction internally, and the EU/NATO/US troika externally, have actually made inevitable. There should be an armistice, negotiations, and partition.
September 2, 2022
Yes, Denis, and better now, while Ukraine’s morale is holding up, rather than when their army chiefs finally revolt against Zelensky’s reportedly catastrophic interference in military matters. The negotiations will be tough, and Ukraine will not have the strength to see it through and get some reasonable kind of deal, if its forces are no longer capable of holding out. Only people who don’t want Ukraine to negotiate at all, like Johnson, fail to see this.
September 2, 2022
You think our PM telling Ukraine to stop will have any reaction apart from them redoubling efforts to give Russia a bloody nose? I think we will drive them towards direct action on Russia itself.
September 2, 2022
For your information, Mickey, their efforts have clearly now failed and it seems it’s their blood, not Putin’s, that’s all over the battlefield now. But you may be right that Ukraine’s best prospects are in terrorism: there have been early signs recently. Still, I don’t think we should be spending out to support that sort of regime. Even if we economise on kettles.
September 2, 2022
evidence please. None! in fact Ukraine are scoring big hits and Russians are now waving white flags in surrender.
September 3, 2022
Lord Dannatt, former head of the British Army, says Ukraine should negotiate now. I would trust his judgment.
September 3, 2022
Pure fantasy!You should get a desk job at the MoD.
September 2, 2022
It won’t be Zelensky’s decision;even if he was amenable he would be quickly deposed by the CIA/neocons or his own Nazis.
September 2, 2022
The 8 billion you calculate (low as the number of households is nearer 30 million) will last only a few months. Three or four times as much spent on new power stations would last 50 years or more and produce profit making power. This is just pure waste, to fill up the bank accounts of the super rich to perpetuate their ripping off of the public.
September 2, 2022
Graham
I Googled how many households in the UK and it came up with just over 20 million. But the numbers are not important. What is important is the principle behind it. ie If you fail to plan, you end up planning to fail.
As I said, for that Ā£ 8 billion we could have had something to contribute to our energy.
September 2, 2022
Good morning
The last week of posts are very depressing in so much there is an under lying theme.
It highlights the woefully short abilities of the majority of those people we have elected. With all that’s going on is it not the time for Central Office to change the criteria on the application for consideration to becoming an MP?
A lot of the mistakes are because those entrusted with their positions are way out of their comfort and ability zones.
If it is any consolation the opposition parties are in an even worse position.
September 2, 2022
And now you know why so, so many of them did not want to leave the EU. So much easier to let someone else do your job and take the flak when everything goes wrong.
Poor things. All they have now to blame are the QUANGO’s and the regulators.
September 2, 2022
They’ll blame the people next
September 2, 2022
Given that most people now are chosen on the criteria of the equality/diversity religion, it’s not too hard to see why we are in the position we are.
Adherence to this religion and its net zero/covid offshoot is paramount in all things.
Anyone not singing from this hymn sheet is a heretic and duly banished.
Schools/Universities are nothing more than re-education camps for this religion and so the circus will carry on with the next set of ‘leaders’. It matters not the colour of the rosette.
September 2, 2022
Not quite – universities have become overpaid lefty lecturer havens, and heaven sent for Chinese etc to get the latest thinking and technological advances without doing the hard yards of research themselves.
September 2, 2022
Yes there seems to be a mix of “of the people” types without tertiary education and PPE types who get to the top, plus sprinkle a few lawyers. No scientific or business judgement which many of us out here have built up over 40 years or more. It provides insight that these immature shouty types just don’t have.
September 2, 2022
My ‘In Your Face’ theme from all the posts, is that we voted for a Blue Tory government …but got a Green government
September 2, 2022
Indeed.
Boris really has gone potty from his energy speech:-
āthat offshore wind is now the cheapest form of electricity in this country
offshore wind is nine times cheaper than gas because of the insanity of what Putin has done
and thatās why it makes sense for us to become more self-reliant
and of course it is entirely clean and greenā
so renewables are not only helping us to defeat climate changeā
Complete B/S Boris nine time cheaper would be ~ 2p a KWH so why do we now have to pay up to 50p+ per KWH. It is a surely corruptly government rigged market. Wind clearly is intermittent and needs to allow for the costs of backup. Also vast amounts of fossil fuels needed to build and maintain these wind farms often up to 50% of the energy they ever will generate. So not remotely entirely clean.
āthey are also helping to keep bills lower than they would otherwise be in this crisisā not the market rigging and your net zero insanity is the main cause of the crisis.
September 2, 2022
Quite so and Ukraine is an absolute life line for hiding behind isn’t it.
No wonder some are keen to keep ‘their hand in’.
September 2, 2022
Jacob Rees-Mogg has ordered more than 250 āwokeā training courses to be scrapped after launching a crackdown on Civil Service āindoctrinationā.
About time why was this not done when Cameron become PM many years ago?
September 2, 2022
really? fantastic news…..evidence please?
September 2, 2022
They’ll just rename the training courses….meanwhile the staff of the BEIS where having a sports day event today
September 2, 2022
LL the Guardian pointed out that a major problem with electricity pricing is the fact that nearly half is based on ROCs (Renewable Obligation Certificates) rather than CfDs (Contracts for Differences). Apparently ROCs are based on the highest produced price of electricity (CfDs are rather more on a produced price) but are then paid in full to the producers of renewables which on Johnson’s calculations means that wind producers (or the middlemen) are paid nine times the production price. The pricing of electricity overall seems incredibly complex and fraught with difficulty and the article suggested that the incoming PM would have to face down vested interests to change the system.
The article also stated the Chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi, said that the government is looking at a voluntary shift to CfDs.
September 2, 2022
I pointed this out some time ago, and came up with the solution of only paying energy producers their cost of production + 7% profit margin on top. And no, of course this should not be a “voluntary shift”. How contemptably pathetic can this government get. It should be IMPOSED by law. The government needs to learn how to govern, but that requires the wielding of power, which ministers seem to be afraid of!!
September 2, 2022
I think it’s the EU system, which apparently we are still using.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/09/01/why-we-need-more-gas/#comment-1338508
āEuropean energy prices are set through a so-called marginal pricing system in which the most expensive power plant called on to meet demand on any given day sets the wholesale electricity price for all suppliers. This means gas-fired power stations … tend to dictate the wholesale electricity price for the rest of the market even though renewable power can be produced more cheaply.ā
“The UK government in July launched a consultation on decoupling the prices of gas and renewable power.”
We also need to decouple wholesale and retail energy prices.
September 2, 2022
Prices and volumes are auctioned day ahead. Prices are higher at congestion points on the European grid. Space on Interconnectors between bidding zones is similar. It’s a market based system. The supplier of the last MW sets the price. It’s a huge game of Poker with many players and more complicated than that.
Ofgem hasn’t updated the charts yet but have a look at the breakdown of bills at
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/search/data-charts?keyword=Breakdown%20of%20bills&sort=relevance
September 3, 2022
“The supplier of the last MW sets the price.”
That’s pretty much what was said in the Irish Times article, and now when the last MW is generated from highly priced gas that bumps up the price of all the electricity.
Thanks for the link. The orange “Wholesale costs” sector will now be dwarfing the rest.
September 2, 2022
Well, you can always buy a new kettle to reduce your energy bill he says.
September 2, 2022
Bonkers after three years you will be Ā£10 up he suggests if the new one last that long and then only if the old one was a huge stainless steel one from perhaps 1970. Using a Ā£10 natural gas one will repay in about two month (if you have a gas ring to use it on! Typically might save Ā£50-100 PA depending on how much you use it.
Good new is LED lights light use only about a 25% of the electricity of the old incandescent lamps and last longer too. So even if electricity is four time the price you are now worse off than then for lighting. Wash cold, switch things off, have a small fridge freezer somewhere cold and use gas for heating, hot water and cooking and you will need very little electricity.
September 3, 2022
I no longer use saucepans on the hob for most things. An electric steamer costing about 25 quid cooks all my vegetables at once, using about half a pint of water saves a good bit. When I use the oven to make bread, I put something else in as well. Unfortunately we are not on gas, we have oil for heating and hot water, but with the price of electricity, I think that is now cheaper for once having been the poor relations for many years past. I’m not getting rid of my efficient boiler for a useless heat pump.
September 2, 2022
or use about 4 to pour into a cold water bath to avoid heating the water in the hot water tank!
Back to the old days and real austerity.
September 2, 2022
Boris is not only MAD , as you say with regard to his net zero obsession (and yes, obsession is a form of madness, so I mean that in a clinical sense), but he is also very STUPID and TREACHEROUS too – as demonstrated by his decision to goive the French government (who are the owners of EDF) Ā£700 million to build a nuclear power station at Sizewell C, instead of spending this money on Britain’s RR SMRs, which are not only cheaper and quicker to build (so will come on stream sooner), but are also safer and more reliable. Why is he so intent on making France richer and stronger, and Britain weaker and poorer? Good riddance to him!!! But the tragedy is that this decision was approved by Kwasi Kwarteng, so given that he is a Truss favourite and has her ear I can see no hope whatsoever of anything getting better. I will undoubtedly remain an EX-Tory.
September 3, 2022
Indeed though I do not really like the RR SMRs much either rather better nuclear solutions are available. In the mean time get mining, fracking and drilling and importing piles of coal.
September 2, 2022
The Ā£400 is only a one off…
Reply Yes, but it is a price cut now. If next year there is no replacement then the CPI goes up
September 2, 2022
Reply to reply. Sorry but still sounds like a kid whining about not getting a sweetie. In ten minutes another, and neither will do any long term good. Tackle the root cause, not the dog end effect.
September 2, 2022
I agree with you Sir J. However with electrickery charges in October now capped at 52p kwh and rising every 3 months, I think the one off Ā£400 is perhaps a drop in the energy ocean. Local businesses get no help at 80p kwh.
These are hundreds of per cent rises. Many businesses will just close. Millions into poverty. Benefit system will take a massive hit..
I think our priorities should be on fixing the energy market rather than finessing a fraction of a percent on CPI.
September 2, 2022
and we still have the cost of the Smart Meters, VAT, the Green Levy and the Standing Charge….no wonder our bills are so high
Is there anyone in the Tory party that counld champion the removal of these extra costs !
September 2, 2022
No it isn’t. It’s a subsidy to high prices, not a price cut and has to be funded. Are the green taxes reducing prices?
September 2, 2022
+1
September 2, 2022
Boris also claims you can save Ā£10PA by getting a more efficient kettle. Well perhaps is you switch from a 70s heavy stainless steel Swan Kettle to a modern Ā£20 plastic one and boil it a lot you might just about save this. But unlikely most people are using such an old heavy kettle and how long with the new plastic kettle last. How much energy needed to make and deliver it. Also the āwasted heatā heating the steel kettle body does actually heat the room.
You can however save more like Ā£75 by using a Ā£10 gas kettle instead of an electric one. Who writes this B/S for Boris?
September 2, 2022
How governments and the cult of net zero wrecked the energy market
Putin may be the proximate cause of this crisis, but the reason we were vulnerable was an intentional policy to crush fossil fuel investment
JULIET SAMUEL in the Telegraph.
A cult that does huge economic harm, kills jobs, freezes pensioners and has no benefits at all for climate or the environment.
September 2, 2022
Johnson: NHS crisis would have been worse without lockdowns
CAMILLA TURNER
BORIS JOHNSON has defended lockdown, claiming that the current NHS crisis would be āeven worseā without it.
Boris is totally deluded – apart from keeping thank goodness keeping Labour/SNP out of power he got all the big things wrong. Lockdowns, energy policy, shutting schools, the dire NHS, test and trace, HS2, road blocking, net zero, manifesto ratting, the vast tax increases, transport, social care, all the pointless duff degrees with vast students ādebt?ā. Even the vaccination programme seems likely to have done significant net harm, in quality life years lost. To have wasted an 80 seat majority is an appalling tragedy. Can Truss rescue things in circa 2 years? It is a huge job.
September 2, 2022
Tell it to Sweden….no lockdown
September 2, 2022
Have the Germans proved the link between Covid vaccination and excess deaths?
Kathy Gyngell – September 1, 2022 on The Conservative Women site.
Almost certainly they have and very depressing it is. Yet still government push these vaccines even at children, pregnant people and the young. Higher still birth rates too. It is an outrage even larger than the blood scandal. When will the government act? Does Liz Truss understand the reality here?
September 2, 2022
Mark Stein thinks so. He highlights problems with the vaccines every night. Israel is also noticing a link.
September 3, 2022
Indeed this study is worth reading in full and very worrying indeed – a link is on the Conservative Woman web site. Giving/coercing/forcing the “vaccines” on to children and the young especially was hugely damaging and seems to have produced large net harm.
September 2, 2022
Oh the irony. Money saving tips from a spendthrift.
The boy keeps taking the p*** out of us right to the last.
September 2, 2022
Or save Ā£1000 by judicious use of a wood burner.
September 2, 2022
Wood burners are banned this year unless you buy a Ecodesign model (a bit like cars are banned unless you buy an EV)
September 3, 2022
If you have to force/coerce/rig markets to force things on to people they are probably a bad idea. Things like compact fluorescent lamps, the renewables, HS2, EV cars, the NHS, heat pumps… if they work and are cost effective they will buy them led LED, ICU, smart phones, cars to replace horses…
September 3, 2022
+1 Freedom of choice ā the once mainstay of Tory thinking
September 2, 2022
At least China will benefit from all the kettle sales.
September 2, 2022
I like your positivity
September 2, 2022
Is he burnishing his green creds for a place on some global body or other?
Wreck a countryā¦why not the entire world too?
For a Bob or three.
Mind youā¦āe donāt look all that chipper to me.
September 2, 2022
Boris just likes the sound of his own voice. He thinks his fancy talk is like world wisdom.
I cannot understand why so many people are fooled by the buffoon and how they think he deserved total loyalty. Surely no-one would buy a second hand car from him?
September 2, 2022
But when he says ‘come to the party’ difficult to resist?
September 2, 2022
+1
There is a cost in scrapping something perfectly servicible too.
September 2, 2022
some dim SPAD with a great idea for Carrie?
September 2, 2022
This reminds me so much of EU tactics. They forcibly take money in the form of green taxes on purchases (EU membership), then give you back a little of your own money and tell you where to spend it. They make out it is help, given freely by the government. IT IS NO SUCH THING!
The people making these ‘fool the electorate’ decisions belong in the EU, where they will feel most at home.
September 2, 2022
Well at least we don’t have to wave an EU flag and sign telling people that it money from the EU, when in truth, it was OUR money all along.
September 2, 2022
+1
September 2, 2022
Forcibly taking your money and then dictating where you spend it. What does that sound like?
Woe betide any leaders elsewhere who’d do such a thing.
September 2, 2022
+1 socialist insanity and a hugely inefficient way to spend money.
September 2, 2022
Stunning incompetence from people at the Treasury. Or might they have been aware of the likelihood of a different ONS classification, with all its knock-on effects?
September 2, 2022
So I presume the Government will be changing the ONS’ legal power to be as difficult as it possibly can be?
Or will this be another case of “blame the Regulator, but do nothing about it – so we can blame them next time?”
September 2, 2022
Not being able to withdraw the latest tax-payer funded bunce will come as a great disappointment in the feather-bedded quarter. And a great surprise?
Probably a lot of tooth gnashing and screams of āNot fair!!ā.
September 2, 2022
None of the events now happening especially in the world of energy should come as any surprise.
For years the Have I Got News For You show on the BBC the opening sequence showed a little Cossack type man turning off the valves and all the lights over Europe went out including ours.
Did it never strike a note with the political classes and for them to ask the question “what if”?
Reply With me it did . I have been urging more domestic supply for years
September 2, 2022
Reply to reply
Fair play to you Sir John I can remember writing to you some 15+ years ago on a information basis only as I lived in Scotland about the renewable energy catastrophe that was just beginning to take off. Some of your one line comment acknowledgements were classic. Happy days.
September 2, 2022
A more accurate sequence, TT, would have been an EU bureaucrat shutting down Nordstream2, and another one signing a directive to reduce purchases of Russian gas and oil through the other pipelines. The BBC’s comic TV pictures might not have looked so good, though! The fact is that Russia continues to supply oil and gas to countries that want to buy it, paying indirectly in roubles via Gazprombank.
Reuters stated the true position back on April 22: “The West has been increasingly trying to cut off Russian energy flows since Russia launched a so-called ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.”
September 2, 2022
The ONS is guided by Brussels and will do everything to cast the government in a bad light.
I agree that tax cuts are the correct path but having socialist Rishi in charge he had the ..everything belongs to me attitude.
Typical spoilt child thinking.
September 2, 2022
Ian Wragg
The ONS is guided by Brussels.
Ian what a load of absolute rubbish
September 2, 2022
Adjusting the RPI to take account of the energy rebate is just tinkering, considering the scale of the inflationary disaster now hitting us largely thanks to your government’s policies. This site’s advocacy of more sensible approaches notwithstanding, Conservative politicians in office have done huge damage to our energy security. Assuming Truss becomes PM, she will be judged in my view on how quickly and how completely she changes course from net zero and supporting war and global resource instability. Plus also from our dependence on unreliable supply chains from e.g. China. Everything she does to encourage production here in this country of what we need will be to our advantage, and hers.
September 2, 2022
I agree. I want to see whoever becomes PM to stay at home and sort out the mess they have helped to create.
Sod Ukraine.
September 2, 2022
appeasement of the worst kind.
September 2, 2022
Mickey, please try and understand this isn’t 1938, or 1940. It’s 2022, we have no empire any more, no global role, we can’t solve international disputes thousands of miles away, we have no army to speak of, our flagship has broken down, we’re Little Britain. And we have a comedian Prime Minister to prove it.
September 2, 2022
Well Bill I would like to think us Brits still have the balls and the morals to defend independent states from the vicious moral depravity of Putin. Success in reducing Ukraine to a look alike nuclear wasteland will be followed by who next? Latvia ? So when they attack do you really believe Nato can stop it on the ground? Well I don’t. Feel safe and confident that Putin will only murder dissenters in the UK, not the public.?
September 2, 2022
Ian Wragg
The ONS is guided by Brussels.
Ian what a load of absolute rubbish
September 2, 2022
+10
September 2, 2022
Inflation has not been caused largely by government policies. US inflation is comparable and they are self-sufficient in energy.
September 2, 2022
True, Roy, but they massively splurged on Covid, money-printing just as we did. With the inevitable result, high inflation. Plus war spending is always inflationary.
September 2, 2022
+1
September 2, 2022
It is just tinkering, and that is because nobody in the Tory leadership wants to accept anything like Labour’s energy price freeze proposal even though many Tory voters would support it:
https://labourlist.org/2022/08/82-of-people-want-government-to-implement-energy-bill-freeze-poll-finds/
“According to the poll today, 85% of Conservative voters surveyed said that they want the government to keep the energy price cap at its current level while 81% of Labour voters said the same.”
I have to wonder: do Johnson, Truss and Sunak all know there is something in the TCA to stop us doing it?
September 2, 2022
Talking of Truss, I’ve seen it reported today that 15, 16 and 17-year olds are being allowed to vote on who is the next PM, yet the 2019 Conservative manifesto explicitly opposed giving the vote to 16 and 17-year olds.
September 2, 2022
Perhaps we should put Johnson, Truss and Sunak in front of Primary school children and ask who would you want as your teacher?
The jolly fat blonde man, the very serious hard faced lady, or the very cautious shifty looking young man?
September 2, 2022
Restricting voting to people who have already paid Ā£ thousands in taxes is far more sensible than letting people still at school vote. So many youngsters really seem to think there is a magic money tree and government have their own money to waste – so many lefty politicians too – even in the Tory party!
September 2, 2022
Agree – we need to stop listening to the UN (WEF) and start listening to the voters; the people
September 2, 2022
According to Net Zero Watch “Energy policy is lurching from one rip-off to another. Itās a national disaster.” Kwasi Kwarteng recently signed the contract for yet another windfarm which rips off the public. And this man is tipped to be the next Chancellor!
September 2, 2022
It’s an across the board Ā£400 discount on the annual price paid. The ONS is politicking.
What’s in it for them?
September 2, 2022
Continued existance?
September 3, 2022
NS pay awards using the inflated CPR figure and pension rises for the public sector to the private sectorās cost.
September 2, 2022
Ensuring the handout doesnāt reduce the calculated inflation rate is nice for all those on final salary inflation-linked pensions, retired civil servants for example.
September 2, 2022
It all seems a bit of an arranging the deck chairs on the titanic exercise.
Smoke and mirrors, creative accountancy, robbing Peter to pay Paul……all that sort of thing.
As someone else has already mentioned the clutching of pearls in shock that Putin would turn off gas supplies is a piece of play acting at its best.
Putin has been ‘big bad Vlad’ poisoning at will, shooting planes from the skies, sitting in his office taking pot shots at his enemies as they stroll the streets of Moscow (this is the picture painted by mainstream not from my fevered imagination).
Yet, despite all these warnings governments of the true and free Western democracies (as they see themselves) made their nations dependent on big bad Vlad for one of the most important commodities.
Ditto dependence on China in far too many ways.
Still, they know best I’m sure!!
September 2, 2022
Oh dear. Bad bad slot today.
Tackle the root cause for goodness sake, not the secondary or tertiary effects.
You print money, you devalue the Pound, you get inflation. Stupid is as stupid does. Live with it or don’t do it in the first place. Look at the Swiss franc. Kept strong and they don’t need to fuss about these trivialities.
September 2, 2022
+1
September 2, 2022
You avoid telling us what percentage saving this would have achieved so I suspect minimal. More political to knock certain institutions.
More relevant, the decline in the value of the pound, importing inflation plus of course the eye watering increase in the money supply compounded by the failure to wind it down indeed keeping it high with a spendthrift approach leading to a permanent current account deficit and increase interest rates.
We know you view about the value of the pound and international factors but confidence is also crucial and the markets are giving their verdicts on the failures of your government. You are allegedly in charge stop blaming other people. Boris going back 20 years when it has taken 12 to do nothing apart from ruining our energy self sufficiency and internal markets.
September 2, 2022
Yes the way to cut the cost of fuel is to strip it of VAT and the Green Levy as an immediate step. The second step is to go flat out to become fuel self sufficient by declaring a state of emergency to curb the activities of the fifth column we carry. Finally we need to look at the financial structure of getting our own fuel to our own population, and the excessive profits that those in the industry are able to cream off in the process.
September 2, 2022
Not a bad bit of advice for a new PM.
September 2, 2022
I will come back to this later but first of all I would like to point out this which came through earlier:
https://euobserver.com/tickers/155937
“Oil and gas firms set to make record ā¬776bn profit in 2022”
“Projections made by analysts Rystad Energy on Thursday show oil and gas-extracting companies ā including ExxonMobil, BP and Shell ā are set to make ā¬776bn profits this year, a new high exceeding last year’s record of ā¬493bn by 70 percent. The largest share is returned to investors, followed by debt-servicing, Rystad figures show. Investments in new oil and gas field remain relatively low.”
At first sight that seems a huge amount of profit and for some it would immediately invite the imposition of a windfall tax – by whoever is able to impose such a tax – but it is worth putting it into a proper perspective.
My calculation:
ā¬776 billion = $774 billion
Global GDP is now about 100 trillion dollars = $100,000 billion
So $774 billion = 774 divided by 100,000 times 100 = 0.8% of global GDP.
Given that oil and gas extraction drives a large part of the global economy that does not seem so outrageous.
September 2, 2022
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
September 2, 2022
Unfortunately thatās the type of comments by people who find difficult to align two figures in a row, are unable to calculate a growth rate or to figure out if the state spending Ā£50 billion as part of its expenditure is more or less than themselves spending Ā£500 out of their Ā£10,450 pension.
September 2, 2022
Ā£50 billion is more than Ā£500
September 3, 2022
Thatās what I thought: 1/ P2 would comment, 2/ he would not understand the question, and 3/ consequently he would give the wrong answer.
Another try: is the state spending Ā£50 bn as part of its total expenditure (Ā£1,045 tn in 2022, see eg. icaew.com āA trillion-pound autumn budget driven by tax and spendingā) more or less an expense than what a pensioner would do spending Ā£500 from their Ā£10,450 pension?
50 bn / 1,045 bn = 500 / 10,450.
And thatās why discussing bits of the state budget/expenses without giving the numbers and more importantly the exact constraints under which these numbers apply is generally a mugās game for the potential reader.
September 3, 2022
You are talking about relativity of money on a personal level and then trying to link that to government spending decisions heffy.
It’s a very silly comparison.
September 4, 2022
Sorry P2, my comment was in answer to the āLies, damned lies and statisticsā. Iām convinced that on this blog at least 50% of the commentators are as LL would say āinnumerateā and unable to see the forest from the tree that so often Sir John is ādanglingā in front of them.
September 3, 2022
Only in the Free World
September 2, 2022
You are making no counter argument with no proof, really embarrassing
September 3, 2022
Yet you are doing exactly the same bill/hans
September 2, 2022
I suppose that maybe the choice of benefit straight into some/most/certain pockets or an across the board price control depends on what the agenda is?
Some politicians probably want to use this ācrisisā to pave the way towards a Universal Basic Income.
September 2, 2022
did you mean Universal Basic Unearned Income.?
September 2, 2022
I think the reason the Government paid this direct to the energy companies, is so that people wouldn’t just go out and spend it on other things, leaving their energy bills unpaid. It would have been a temptation to do so.
I think it was quite a sensible decision.
September 2, 2022
How useful is the CPI anyway, given the big tickets items like mortgage payments and tax it leaves out?
September 2, 2022
To compound the error the Ā£150 discount on some Council Tax is also excluded from CPI.
September 2, 2022
So, another maladroit move! Green card for Mr. Sunak.
September 2, 2022
I go on lots of websites and would like to say that this website with its ideas are like a glass of iced water on a very hot day. Refreshing common sense at last.
Ugandan proverb: If you have to beg for a drink of water it doesn’t slake your thirst.
A cheap hand-out fools nobody and certainly not the people who are concerned about inflation.
September 2, 2022
Ask anyone who shops for food regularly ‘what sort of availability, and what sort of price increases have you seen’?
Inflation rampant!
September 2, 2022
Indeed, my daily croissant (in Lidl) that in January 2021 was at 25p is now (09/2022) at 55p. This.Is.A.Disgrace.
(and I couldnāt be sure but I would bet that they are slightly smaller).
September 2, 2022
Sunak, without question is a very bright intelligent man but you have clearly illustrated his serious lack of experience and these mistakes can and do have a detrimental effect on our future. Heaven help us if he is elected as the next PM.
If we are going to have MPs in their 30s and early 40s they should not be appointed to a senior cabinet role until after the age of 45 and having served as an MP for at least 10 years. The most effective MPs are those who have had a successful career in industry and commerce, whether it was on the shop floor or in senior management, before being elected
September 2, 2022
Is there anything Sunak and Truss could do to change that rebate classification next week to show us they mean business? Leaving the ONS with no wriggle room. 20% off the first Ā£2000 reduced from the green subsidy that’s 25% isn’t it?
September 2, 2022
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/un-laughed-at-donald-trump-when-he-was-100-per-cent-correct/video/be0b12074e5dc4aa58f7b5cf75844187
Interesting video here John. Sky News. Seems Trump was right again.
September 2, 2022
Failure to deal with persistent inflation could lead to civil unrest. Irrelevant if caused by external supply shock or internal demand.
The markets believe that politically governments will continue to go for growth and ignore inflation.
Thus speaks the Bundesbank seeing Germany reeling from the effect of its loose monetary supply policy. Politically they are trapped by the EU. Tighten and cast Italy adrift maybe others? Stay loose, not acceptable internally.
Could this be the catalyst for a Euro break up/two speed EU. In theory the U.K. being independent allows us to act unilaterally only for our benefit (Remainers please note)
The problem I have and more importantly the markets, is that Truss is committed to spend even more money and looks to neither understand the issue nor has any levers to pull to resolve it.
Maybe Sir JR, instead complaining about a problem like the ONS which is at the margin, would tell us his proposals for dealing with the far bigger elephant in the room. Politically Truss looks caught in a trap so is staying silent hoping it will go away or external factors will bail her out. HMGs magic money tree economics has the electorate addicted to the teat of jam today, and tomorrow and ever after.
Internally her playing Santa approach may save her Government but we will as we are now, be paying the price.
September 2, 2022
In June Conservative MP for Bolton Chris Green asked the PM at PMQs about re-opening coal mines, arguing that British coal is cleaner than that mined in Germany or China and that bringing back the coal industry could boost jobs. (It seems Johnson was non-committal.) We’re told in some quarters that it can’t be done, for various reasons. But the previous month India had announced it was planning to reopen more than 100 coal mines, and in July Australia announced some of its coal mines were re-opening. So clearly it is possible. Is it economically viable? I don’t know, but perhaps it would be if it was subsidised, as ‘renewables’ are. A priority for the new PM must be working towards a very substantial boost in domestically produced energy. A feasibility study to establish how soon British coal could come onstream from reopened mines might be worth setting up.
September 2, 2022
PP it would seem that the UK is prohibited by law from using coal to generate electricity by the end of next year. However there is no mention about mining coal so it could be mined and then exported to Germany to replace the rubbish they are using.
No more steam coal from Ffos-y-Fran coal mine in South Wales so heritage railways have to get their coal from Columbia. The cost could spell the end of heritage railways here. Who would have thought that a Tory government would want to erase our history?
September 2, 2022
Correction, the end of electricity from coal is 1 October 2024.
September 3, 2022
Several experiments are being conducted by Heritage Railways in order to determine a replacement ‘oval’ or ‘brick’ fuel for quality coal. I understand Ffos-y-Fran coal mine had a licence to provide a fixed amount for ‘steel making’ and about 10% for railways? That is about to end. The experiments differ but generally much more volume is used overall and a more frequent feeding of the boiler is required. A poor substitute seems certain.
September 2, 2022
When the ONS start making mistake then we up the creek without a paddle.
September 2, 2022
Social benefits to households are broken down into two parts. Benefits that are in cash; either pension or non-pension, and transfers that are āin kindā non-cash. Cash is the same as any other household income. Transfers are provision of goods or services like health care and education. Households have no discretion over their use.
āThis assessment looked at several possible classifications in the light of the statistical guidance, and determined that the EBSS support package is classified as an ‘other miscellaneous current transfer’ from the central government subsector to the households sector. The other treatments considered but ruled out were: a subsidy to energy suppliers; a social benefit or social transfer to households; a capital transfer to households. […] The implication for consumer price inflation of this EBSS classification decision is that the payment is not part of household expenditure and should therefore be treated as out of scope of the CPIH, CPI and RPI.ā (ONS)
“The ONS assessed the EBSS in the context of internationally-agreed statistical guidance as described in the United Nations System of National Accounts 2008 (PDF, 9.2MB), the European System of Accounts 2010 (PDF, 6.5MB) and the accompanying Manual on Government Deficit and Debt 2019, as these are the guides by which the UK compiles its National Accounts.” (ONS)
The ONS, like the Civil Service in general; will continue to do what Parliament has instructed it to do, until parliament tells it to do something different.
September 3, 2022
Acorn, what about if it was termed āa reduction to the green surchargeā, that surcharge is applied on behalf of the government not to benefit the company that bills it, wouldnāt that then be a direct reduction of tax?
It would then not be a transfer but a reduction in surcharge to help with the world energy emergency.
How do France get around these things? How is their discount accounted for? Is their CPI sky high because of all the energy transfers we are told their government makes?
September 2, 2022
”put it on bills as a discount to the price of power”
It isn’t a ‘discount’ its a taxpayer ‘subsidy’
Nothing has been discounted, the energy provider is getting its full asking price – Smoke & Mirrors
September 3, 2022
Exactly Glen, it should be a VAT or Green Subsidy rebate. That money is collected on behalf of the government and doesnāt benefit the company billing and collecting this revenue.
September 2, 2022
OFF TOPIC.
The DT today reports GP partners average pay during the first year of pandemic lockdown when they didn’t see patients rose by 17% to Ā£142k.
This should be headline news in every MEDIA reporting for days on end.
What do the valiant staff of those surgeries dealing with workload, abuse and stress, earning possibly 25% of that think?
I know what I think.
September 2, 2022
Mark Stein thinks so. He highlights problems with the vaccines every night. Israel is also noticing a link.
September 2, 2022
That reply should have been to LL and his post about vaccines.
September 2, 2022
I’d like the ONS decision-makers to get the same sort of scrutiny Truss or Sunak will have on their decisions. The media lets these quangos get away with decisions that go against the general public good. So who gains from an overinflated CPI?
Is it Public sector worker pensions, the people working for the ONS or used to work for the ONS? Local housing trusts and councils have been popping millions of pounds into their own pension pots (no caps there, unlike doctors/consultants and the rest of the private sector).
September 2, 2022
The utter incompetence of the Treasury beggars belief.
That’s the first reaction – but seeing the ONS take a view that seems to create an economic problem for no good reason makes me wonder if this is yet another case of lefty/remainer civil servants trying to create a problem for political reasons.
September 2, 2022
Hang on, the Ā£400 is paid to the retail supplier, not to the consumer. There is no way of knowing if the subsidy is passed on, in full, to the consumer.
The supplier could increase their price beyond what it they could have charged without the Ā£400 per customer subsidy.
There is also the insidious effect of direct debits. The supplier has the power to increase the consumer’s monthly direct debit payment to an amount at their discretion. The consumer has little say in what they must pay. Most are “in credit”, especially after the hot summer we have enjoyed.
Nevertheless the supplier can engineer things with this subsidy so that the amount in credit is increased. Then after pocketing the subsidy they can go bankrupt.
September 2, 2022
If I understand correctly the ONS decision will increase the inflation figure which will increase my state pension. Not all bad news then!
But, seriously, the following generations are being screwed. Thank heavens for all the new people arriving. The sooner they are processed and working a long way away from where I live the better.
September 2, 2022
I get the feeling that there is a growing belief that everything that is going wrong is because of Brexit. I predict the next Labour government will have us back in the Single Market asap. The EU will demand Ā£20 billion a year as a membership fee and weāll have no seat at the table. Also, none of this will be mentioned before the next general election.
September 2, 2022
It – the ONS – makes life more difficult for those trying to conceal the facts as to the disastrous effects of Tory policies such as brexit and botched privatisations, certainly.
As for the millions, suffering directly, materially, and personally also as a result of these, I’d say that the ONS are the last people whom they will blame, and dead right they are too.
September 2, 2022
…oh, yes, and the Electoral Commission makes like more difficult for those seeking to subvert elections.
It’s hardly surprising that the Right want to hobble that too, then.
September 3, 2022
You think requiring ID to vote and reducing opportunities for postal vote fraud is wrong NHL
An interesting glimpse into the left’s view towards those who would “subvert elections”
September 2, 2022
“I would have preferred tax cuts on energy which would directly cut the CPI/RPI measurements of inflation.”
Of course you would have. So would anybody. The should have zero-rated energy supply, and removed the carbon levies on that and on motor fuel. The latter would have helped industry too (I assume that VAT is recoverable by industry).
But, as usual, you failed to take into account the fact that we are governed by morons. Morons, moreover, in the grip of a quasi-religion whose credo is that an atmospheric gas, present only in microscopic concentration and which is yet absolutely essential to life, is poisoning the planet. You just can’t argue with stupid. We’re all wasting our time.
September 2, 2022
This was in January 2019, the government announced it would enter a partnership with the World Economic Forum
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-world-economic-forum-to-lead-regulation-revolution-to-foster-industries-of-the-future
I have thought for a long time that this was betrayal, treason.
September 2, 2022
I Agree
September 2, 2022
Sunak’s attack on the SAGE scientists is typical blame passing by this government of charlatans. Implementing lockdowns too late; three times in a row. The data is now showing why the UK had higher deaths per capita; and a larger negative economic impact than other similar nation. Sunak did not get the Treasury to do a cost – benefit analysis of the lock downs. Have a listen to https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001bkrt 10m 39s into the broadcast 7m duration.
September 2, 2022
Another bid to massage the inflation figures so that there can be another state pension cut in real terms ?
No end to the hatred of retired people here, on BBC and in the press.
You people will find a way to ensure that the pensions of MPs stay ahead though, won’t you.
September 2, 2022
The other point the article raises is that the way inflation is calculated is important.
When it’s really one commodity that’s skyrocketing in price while others are mostly unaffected (other than perhaps in having a need to use that commodity) then economics is failing us by simplistically presentinga single figure “inflation” as if it’s an overall/general problem when that’s not really the case. It’s an issue with a single commodity so economics needs a better way to represent and model this type of scenario.
That’s especially true if the price will come back down – then what?
What I worry about is that there will then be fears of deflation, so energy prices will end up being kept high to avoid that. When wholesale prices go up the cost os passed on to teh customer, when they go down… not so much.
Economics is a nascent science that has been stuck in a nascent science state for rather a long time. When its leading lights (Marx, Smith and Keynes) all say very different things and none can prove or disprove any of it (other than by effectively experimenting on whole populations) then it should be clear that there is work t do to advance our understanding of economics – simply falling back on the same flawed and often unhelpful concepts, terms and calculations is failing us badly.
September 3, 2022
High energy prices will cause deflation, not stop it. If people spend all their money on energy, nothing is left to buy things in the general economy and firms go bust (quite apart from not being able to pay their energy bills). Economics is not a science anymore than climate change is. When you get differing opinions and no demonstrable repeating proof, it is not science. Ask any two economists and you will get 3 opinions.
September 2, 2022
The data below is for the 24-hour period 00:00 to 23:59 1 September 2022.
Number of migrants detected in small boats: 0
Number of boats detected: 0
HAVE THE ROYAL NAVY GIVEN UP RECORDING ANY DATA
5 days and no illegal crossings ???
September 2, 2022
So.
Our Parliamentā¦ invaded by a load of eco loons.
What would happen to the ordinary person if they did that?
Is this by design or accident?
12 yearsā¦
Well done tories.
September 2, 2022
The whole renewable energy thing is an rip off by parliament on taxpayers two times over, one for subs going in and now nine times extra on their payment by going to open market and soon to be 18 times by the new year, you won’t see much change out of the new cabinet with members involed themselves along with royal family, lords, MPs and other rich people from all over who have invested in this money making scheme. When Russia went into Ukraine, that same day Bo the cabinet and parliament condemn Russia and offered no chance of peace talks from day one, in fact Bo went to Ukraine the other month on a surprise visit while peace talks were on going with Russia, two days late peace talks were stopped,, Bo surprise visit had done the job and the 1800 per cent increase for frends will now go ahead in the new year and that will last as long as the so called war last to which parliament hopes will be a long time for their profits.
September 2, 2022
Here’s an interesting reminder that Donald Trump was right about Germany’s dependence on Russian gas:
https://youtu.be/Zn6c-UkqlHo?t=429
The German delegation laughed – they’re not laughing now.
September 2, 2022
Today’s Diary reads to me like the ONS are determined to make the rate of INFLATION sound as frightening as they possibly can.
That, of course adds fuel to the fires of every demand for wage increases and consequent strikes.
It is almost as though the ONS are some sort of ‘enemy agent’ acting within our country!
I’ve just received an email from Ukip.
It says of every Ā£100 on our fuel bills Ā£20 is a ‘Climate Levy’ and Ā£5 is VAT.
Surely, if those two items were removed there would be no need to take any further action on the so called ‘energy price CRISIS’.
Far MORE important is taking every possible action URGENTLY, to ensure that the U.K. HAS ENERGY, both GAS AND ELECTRICITY, CONSTANTLY AVAILABLE.
September 2, 2022
Perhaps there is time to change the way this has been done so that it shows on bills and reduces inflation.
The ONS are only doing things the way they do things and are not to blame. The last paragraph of the post shows th fault for this blunder lies with the Treasury. Surely it is nothing to do with future pensions.
September 2, 2022
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1663771/energy-bill-energy-cap-cost-of-electricity-gas-are-renewables-more-expensive-Putin-gas
Dr John Constable with the Renewable Energy Foundation with a brilliant piece in the Express today. He was a guest in 2011 at our first Scottish anti wind farm conference in Ayr. He spoke sense then and now.
September 2, 2022
Causing difficulty?
– not mothballing perfectly old but functional coal & oil plant?
– not permitting UK oil, coal gas to displace imports?
– not extending nuclear plant, apparently not even responding in time?
– spending excessive amounts on nuclear technology+28bn and likely the same again. With known issues on cost, reliability and delivery?
-spending excessive amounts +100bn on HS2 which hardly any will use or could afford anyway.
-agreeing to pay +80 billion to the EU with no legal requirement.
-poor contracting of renewable capacity, its almost like the public interest in actually getting renewable capacity paired with say hydro or storage was a side issue of doling out subsidies.
-continuing with massive 10-15bn foreign aid , whilst printing money. Trade not aid remember.
– now Ukraine war used to impose sanctions on the western nations to economically weaken them.
Suspect the admin finance coup is near ramming us back into the EU in all but name. Its breathtaking to gradually see the scale of the plan and how it is coming together.
No actions, in the first week, on removal of NetZero, ECHR, NI Protocol, will indicate.
September 2, 2022
It beggars belief that neither the Chancellor nor the Treasury civil servants considered that a handout that can be spent on anything is not a real reduction in the cost of energy. So the national debt has been increased again, and will cost more to service.
I sometimes wonder if our civil service is aiming to bankrupt the country in an attempt to trigger an IMF intervention and a change of government.
Reply The hand out is only available as a reduction in the electricity bill
September 3, 2022
Yes, sorry, JR, quite right: I read over-hastily. Perhaps there should be a mechanism for the Treasury to consult the ONS before such measures are enacted, given the open question as to whether such a one-off blanket payment to energy users can be seen as inflationary, since it will do nothing to reduce the actual cost of energy and may encourage private spending as a knock-on effect.
Like ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ it is a naked bribe with the taxpayers’ money intended to curry favour and prevent bankruptcies (restaurants/energy companies), when what is needed is the coherent energy policy you have outlined elsewhere.