Knowing some  of you will want to talk about the by elections, here is your opportunity. Each of the three parties won one. They showed continuing poor support for Conservatives, no love for a Labour replacement, and anger at Mayor Kahnâs anti motorist policies. They show Lib Demâs with very low national poll figures can pull off the odd  by election win. A highly subsidised investment in the West country did not impress voters there.
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July 21, 2023
My political sympathy is with Lawrence Fox, but you can see why people who want to hammer the government need to vote for the next biggest party. If all the Remain votes had gone to Labour, the wished-for Conservative whitewash would have been achieved.
The lib/dems/greens etc continue to be a dustbin vote. Their âincrease supportâ and âwinâ means nothing.
The real battle if for the heart and soul of the Conservative and Labour Parties. We need to oust their political machines and parliamentary parties from power over the selection process so we can recover both parties.
There is no other way!
July 21, 2023
Indeed but they are all dust bin votes except for those in few areas like Wokingham that have a sensible & real Conservative MP. Perhaps 100 at best.
The country is crying out for lower taxes, far less regulation, fewer, but quality only migrants, no net zero, cheap reliable energy, freedom of choice and decent public services. Thirteen years of Tories has delivered the complete reverse. Labour will obviously be even worse still.
But Labour for 3+ terms seem v. likely after 13 wasted years and the squandered 80 seat majority, botched Brexit, tax to death, borrow, print, currency debase, lock downs, net harm vaccines, a moronic energy policy and piss down the drain policies of mainly on Rishi Sunak.
July 21, 2023
+++
And some law and order!
Imagine the bliss of a Bobby on the beat or even those cruising police cars.
July 21, 2023
I think there is a hyphen missing. âBy-electionsâ not âby electionsâ.
I spelt it without the hyphen yesterday too. I was even wondering if âbye electionsâ might be correct.
Anyway, definitely not as bad as predicted for the Conservatives. So I imagine they will go with that as a main response.
July 21, 2023
In Wokingham, the only votes that count are those for the Conservative Party. They could stick a blue rosette on a turnip and it would win…
1. The country needs higher taxes to start to repair the neglect that the Tories have overseen during their 13 years in government. Higher taxes on those who can afford it, not tax-breaks for the super-wealthy on inheritance.
2. Less regulation would lead to even more disasters like those seen in the water industry. Privatisation was meant to bring greater investment to the infrastructure – instead it has lead to greater payouts to shareholders and cries that bill will have to rise to pay for investment.
3. Without net zero, we will perish. Absolute madness to refuse to avoid annihilation because it will cost too much. See point 1.
4. For cheap, reliable energy, look no further than renewables – wind, solar, tidal. More licenses for the likes of BP will NOT bring us cheaper fuel, they will still sell to the highest bidder.
5. Decent public services and freedom of choice – you don’t get those through cutting taxes, just look where we are now! Education and health are on their knees.
July 21, 2023
Tullus
I don’t agree with what you say, but as it’s a free country (just about), you are entitled to your opinions. However, your comment, “They could stick a blue rosette on a turnip and it would win⊔ is very insulting to the voters of Wokingham. And no, I don’t live anywhere near Wokingham.
July 21, 2023
Sharon, It’s an insult to the kind host of this blog. I am surprised it was allowed to pass, but given the attitude of some contributors, not that it was written.
July 21, 2023
Thank you for coming on today Tullus, which party do you favour will do all of these things for you out of interest?
July 21, 2023
The absolute moral certainty of those not in power. Always a treat
July 21, 2023
Tullus
“Without Net Zero..”
Interesting thoughts. I wonder if you would be happy with no electricity when the wind does not blow or at night when the sun does not shine, would you be happy with nuclear ?
Higher taxes, really, just how many super rich people do you think would stay in this country if they had to pay more, and how much do you think those people and higher taxes would generate ?
Inheritance tax been the same now for 16 years at ÂŁ325,000 for a single person, and for those without children, and for people who rent.
With regards to Wokingham, you will need to pay in excess of ÂŁ500,000 to purchase a 3 bedroom semi, a single bedroom terraced house costs ÂŁ350,000.
How do I know, because I live here.
Your silly insults about our present MP and our host, shows just how little local knowledge you have, because the Council is run by a LibDem majority, unfortunately.
No not everyone is a fan of JR, it would be impossible for him, or any MP to please everyone.
All I can say is that if you write to him as a Constituent with a real concern, and having attempted to resolve your own problems first, and through the correct procedures, you will normally get an immediate response, no matter how you voted.
Does your own MP communicate with the people like our host, if not then may I suggest your argument should be with them.
July 21, 2023
and why do you imagine a Tory would be elected whatever opposition?
Perhaps the quality of our MP, proven year in year out might have something to do with it?
Should the MP in question decide to abandon a fair slice of what he has stood and campaigned for all these years, then some other Party ‘turnip’ may well be elected instead.
The almost only criticism I could hold against our sitting MP is that he continues to support an almost dead horse that cannot get up on its feet, and shows no sign of enduring life.
July 21, 2023
Donât be daft. Wind is not cheap nor reliable.
Solar is as much use as a chocolate teapot for 8 months of the year.
Tidal is ludicrously expensive.
Youâre talking nonsense.
July 22, 2023
Tullyâs :
Point 4 : Many years ago when wind turbines started to be built I thought they could be a good way to reduce our dependence on Middle East oil and also because oil is too useful a chemical for making pharmaceuticals and many other products to be used for burning to produce electricity. But when I started to learn more about energy and the electricity grid I discovered how absolutely useless are renewables. I now believe only the ignorant or the corrupted promote renewables.
Point 3 : There is no climate emergency caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and the attempt to reach Net Zero using useless renewable energy will destroy civilisation and bring death to millions. Net Zero is followed by either Malthusians determined to take us back to pre-industrial levels of population and living standards or renewable energy grifters. Or communists determined to destroy the more successful West.
July 21, 2023
So if the Tories lose (throw away really) two thirds of their seats as with these three, how many will they be left with just over 100 perhaps? This despite the country crying out for sensible real Conservative small government climate realist, low tax policies.
July 21, 2023
I would probably have had to vote for Piers Corbyn an Imperial physics graduate, not without his faults, but right on lockdowns, vaccines, masks and a sensible climate realist too. There certainly needs to be a serious criminal negligence investigation into the net harms (certainly for the young) and the current excess deaths these vaccines seem to have causes running at nearly 150 a day even now. They had the data before these vaccinations started and did not even react as it become more and more clear just how dangerous and how much net harm they were clearly causing.
https://www.corbyn4london.com/14-point-statement-on-the-year-of-coronavirus-madness/
See the Western Australia figures where the Covid waves were well after the vaccines yet death climbed post vaccines but before Covid.
July 22, 2023
Piers Corbyn is also a Brexiteer, and not, as his brother was, one who was persuaded by the left to dump democracy in favour of a second referendum.
July 21, 2023
Absolutely correct, Lynn. But many of the people who would have tried to achieve this have resigned or gone over to Reform/Reclaim. That may have left mainly just the apathetic as Conservative Party members. I did notice that the turnout in the seats that the Tories lost was only about 44%, so a lot of apathy there too. The only thing that would give the Tories any chance would be a charismatic figure galvanising the grassroots again. Return of Boris, perhaps?
July 21, 2023
He proved he is completely ineffective once. You want that twice?!
July 21, 2023
Find someone else.
Boris had his day in the sun and although the Covid Gods were unkind to him, he squandered an 80 seat majority and completely failed to produce a coherent energy policy or sort out NI. No doubt about his personal charisma but being amusing is no substitute for strong leadership underpinned by credible economic and security strategies.
July 21, 2023
So who else then, IanT?
July 21, 2023
REDWOOD! For Godâs sake letâs try a Tory and one with brains.
I donât agree with Sir John on everything, but I NEED his politics to survive.
July 21, 2023
Unfortunately we are very limited for choice Clough and it’s not as if the other Parties can offer anything better. In fact I would struggle to predict a future Labour Cabinet other than Streeting and Reeves. I didn’t have too many issues with Liz Trusses economic polices but she proved somewhat inept in their introduction (not helped by the BoE of course). I’ve always found Lord Frost interesting to listen to but he’s in no position to bail them out at this time. As for most of the other 2022 leadership candidates, they were generally a pretty poor bunch I’m afraid and one of them is somehow now Chancellor.
July 21, 2023
The charisma you wish for doesn’t stretch far beyond music-hall comedy, slapstick and absence of morals. The jokes, innuendos and half- truths have all been heard before to the point of audience boredom. Get ‘orf the Stage!
July 21, 2023
Oh yes letâs have Mr Net Zero and Letâs Take on Russia and China with no weapons to hand (part from the nukes)! That should finish us all off double quick!
July 21, 2023
Conservative voters want to hammer the Governmernt as it has failed to deliver on Tory policy and principles. Simple as that.
Government spending up, taxes up, borrowing up, public sector bloated, service delivery (in schools, NHS, etc) down, benefits from EU exit not maximised, migration sky-high…
Need I go on?
July 21, 2023
And the way they will hammer the government will be to stay home at the next electi
July 22, 2023
Add net zero lunacy, the mad expensive intermittent energy policy, road blocking, misdirected police who do totally the wrong things and have given up on real crimes.
July 21, 2023
@Lynn Atkinson & @Clough +1, 100%
July 21, 2023
+1 Lynn
Lawrence Fox was denied an interview with the BBC. So much for impartiality.
July 21, 2023
But surely we all know this by now? I want Lawrence Fox in Parliament, heâs the most useful actor I have ever heard of! If he was a Tory Candidate he would be in! I think Lawrence Fox is a real Tory, on a Selection Committee he would be very high on my list.
Letâs reclaim the power to SELECT Lawrence Fox as our Tory Candidate in a nice safe seat so he can fight for Conservatism.
July 21, 2023
The Uni-Party won all three, so nothing will change.
The British people lost again ….. and they’ll continue to lose until they change their own voting behaviour and vote to break up the Uni-Party.
(Selby appears to have a schoolboy representing the Uni-Party. What possible experience can he bring to Parliament?)
July 21, 2023
He brings no experience at all. Worse still he brings the woke indoctrination he has had at Oxford into an already defunct parliament full of people that should never be in there. Itâs time to insist on life experience as a mandatory qualification before being allowed your nose in the trough.
July 21, 2023
The simplest system would be to introduce a minimum age. 30 is still young, but would at least mean a minimum of 8 years working experience post-uni (in most cases) and 14 if they had gone down the apprenticeship route.
July 21, 2023
No, the simplest system would be to stop paying MPs. Then we would only have people who are already successful at something putting themselves forward.
July 22, 2023
Being successful at something doesn’t necessarily always result in a great deal of money. Wisdom and commonsense count for a great deal. Many, if not most of our MPs, display no commonsense and very little wisdom.
July 21, 2023
And he’s going to cop 86 grand a year plus from day one, expenses including a second home, whilst a first year junior doctor gets about a third of that with high expenses and if he stays a junior all his life will never earn the money an MP gets.
July 21, 2023
The new MP gained a degree in history and politics and a masters in public policy at Oxford. He apparently worked as a researcher for Wes Streeting, who was head of education at Stonewall prior to becoming an MP.
July 22, 2023
Hugely depressing, not the sort of lefty, woke, green crap pushing MP we need yet more of.
July 21, 2023
Gladstone entered Parliament at 22 (born 1809, Tory MP 1828) and Churchill at 25 (born 1874, Conservative MP 1900).
July 21, 2023
Sorry, Gladstone got his first seat in 1832.
July 21, 2023
Donna,
A schoolboy who was still wearing his school tie from the look of it.
July 21, 2023
+1 Donna
The ‘schoolboy’ could easily be in government next year, replacing the currant ‘schoolboys’.
July 22, 2023
Sunak sound like a dim, deluded head schoolboy to me.
July 21, 2023
Yes Donna, the bright side of that is Reform UK out polled the LibDems!
Also in the Somerton &Frome
Bruce Evans ( ReformUK) 1303
Neil Guild (Labour) 1009
From little acorns !!!
I hope as I am sick of the lies, Climate Change is a scam, as the climate has been changing for millions of year without the help of man.
I suggest that the man/ climate believers walk up any of out countries largest mountains and sit and take in the vista. They will then realise how insignificant they are ! Above all we need honest people in parliament, not greedy wasters that most of them are.
July 21, 2023
The British people lose when they vote in numpties. A democracy gets the government it deserves. One thing Enoch Powell got right.
July 21, 2023
We have 640+ numpties out of 650. They are ALL a waste of space. They all toe the line. Follow the money. YOU are irrelevant.
July 21, 2023
Did Enoch get anything wrong?
July 22, 2023
No much. He ever described the death penalty as “utterly repugnant”
July 21, 2023
I think our problem is similar to many democracies; the people who should stand don’t, because it’s not a respectable profession nor sufficiently financially rewarding, pm position excluded.
July 22, 2023
Exactly.
July 21, 2023
Mr. Sunak now has his chance: emulate MacMillan and sack a third of the Cabinet and adopt some election winning policies like those you have set out. Instead he will limp on for another year or so.
July 21, 2023
He’s not going to sack a third and replace them with genuine Conservatives.
We saw exactly what he would do the other day, when he disposed of 5 Brexit-supporters who might have caused him a little difficulty over the Windsor Betrayal.
July 21, 2023
The Windsor Betrayal remains on track, according to Chris Heaton-Harris:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66263960
“The framework, which is intended to ease post-Brexit trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK”
Actually it is intended to ease the separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, as he well knows.
Even a Liberal Democrat peer. Lord Purvis, is uneasy about what is being done:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2023-07-19/debates/1233531A-D6AC-48FC-84B3-E7A0BE7DBDD8/PostalPackets(MiscellaneousAmendments)Regulations2023#contribution-83D39EB9-4680-478C-BA3C-954498B5D32D
“A foreign power will be making determinations of whether internal UK postal services will be checked, under the authority of that foreign power. Can the Minister just clarify when in our nationâs history this has ever happened?”
July 21, 2023
Denis get off your high horse brexit started all of this of which DUP played a large part and now governments have been left with the mess to clear up. So that’s what they are about now putting the final touches in place. Little did Lord Dodds and the DUP think things would have worked out like this when they started and that’s too bad for them but they were never too good at the law of unintended consequences and have only themselves to blame if things look out of kilter. On the other hand what is happening now about the parcels is as far as it will go for the present time. Also there is nothing “foreign” about Ireland – it is there but just under a different jurisdiction – so don’t keep playing things up making them seem worse than they are.
July 21, 2023
Fran,
The public voted for Brexit.
The government did not like that , so they proceeded to make a âmessâ of it from day one – with the weak and duplicitous Theresa May through to the present incumbent.
BRINO is the result.
July 21, 2023
Why don’t you write and explain that to Lord Purvis.
July 21, 2023
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/stormont-boycott-the-only-leverage-unionists-have-to-resist-windsor-framework-tuv-4228246
“Also responding to Mr Heaton-Harrisâs recent assurances, DUP peer Nigel Dodds said on Twitter âHis Govt sacked MPs from a committee to force through building of Irish Sea border. Dozens of Statutory Instruments are being passed under protocol to reinforce NI separation from rest of UK. Yet he talks of new law to reassure unionists. Inconsistentâ.
July 21, 2023
Peter – We the public were horribly lied to, all of the promises made prior to 2016 came to nothing, just a big bag of smoke and now we have to live with the consequences more than that our children and children’s children will pay the price. Sunak has to do what he has to do because uncle Joe Biden has just been over and told him that if he ever hopes to get a special trade deal with the US then he has first to sort things in NI, something the DUP fails to understand and the same message is also coming from the EU side and that’s the reality.
July 22, 2023
The reality is that a UK-US trade deal would be of little value to the UK.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2023/04/13/what-the-pm-and-president-should-have-said-in-ulster/#comment-1382750
âA trade agreement with the US could increase UK GDP in the long run by around 0.07% … ”
Which has been known for years, and the same for a EU-US trade deal:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/02/13/lets-get-rid-of-eu-austerity/#comment-801195
“As it happens, last year at a general election meeting my local MP quoted that same trivial sum, ÂŁ10 billion a year, as the projected benefit to the UK economy of TTIP, the proposed EU-US trade deal, and a reason for us to stay in the EU.”
“So there we have it. A projected boost to government revenues of ÂŁ4 billion a year arising from the proposed EU-US trade deal would be so important that we must stay in the EU and not miss out on that cornucopia, the good times will roll, while the government saving ÂŁ10 billion a year by leaving the EU is just a âjokeâ.”
July 22, 2023
The foreign power is the EU Commission.
July 21, 2023
There wouldnât be enough genuine Conservatives to replace them anyway. Thatâs their problem, theyâre not Conservatives.
July 21, 2023
Good point
July 21, 2023
The Party List excludes Conservatives. Thatâs why itâs there. It must go!
July 22, 2023
Denis – That would be true if PM’s past and present were not travelling to and fro trying to drum up business with them. If we want a good deal then we have to start small and build on it – trade to a large part depends on trust as much as anything else – unfortunately it is in short supply at the moment.
July 21, 2023
We said Donna âïž
July 21, 2023
@formula57 there is nothing to sack, if the main stumbling block remains – we need a general election, we need a Conservative Government. The aim is the total destructtion of Conservatives and the Conservative Party HQ Is conspiring with the aim.
July 21, 2023
But Sunak will not change his is a tax to death green crap pushing, anti Brexit, globalist socialist. One who sounds like a silly patronising head school boy. Clearly useless at maths and politics too.
July 21, 2023
Agree ”adopt some election winning policies” I fail to see any traditional tory policies from this government nor any for 13 years
July 21, 2023
We seem to agree. None of the above.
July 21, 2023
Sunak is weak and lacking in charisma. The Tories have moved centre left. No point in voting for them when there is an established party already there,
July 21, 2023
They’re more left than the Greens & LibDems
July 21, 2023
The Conservatives lost two seats because they haven’t been doing what the electorate want them to do, e.g. they have raised taxes and failed dismally to stop mass illegal immigration.
The reason they didn’t lose Uxbridge is because Labour mayor Khan wants to expand the ULEZ, so Labour failed to win because they are doing something the voters disagree with.
The message to politicians of all parties is clear: If you don’t do what the voters want you won’t be elected.
July 21, 2023
Unfortunately Khan will continue as London mayor as the latest Conservative opponent is a complete unknown. A big figure is required – unless the Conservatives have already abandoned London as a Labour city.
July 22, 2023
Shaun Bailey was an unknown and very nearly beat Khan last time. If the Conservative Party had bothered to help him instead of signalling to the electorate that he wasn’t worth supporting, he could have won. What an utter shower the CP are, always excluding the excellent minority of MPs like Sir John.
July 21, 2023
@Pud Just because the electorate pays them and empowers them what makes you think this Conservative Government works for them or the Country?
July 21, 2023
But Politicians have learned that they can promise the Earth and then do something completely different to their manifesto pledges and get away with it. The Conservative Party is now several parties under one banner. There are the so-called “Right” of the Party (or the conservative part) and the so-called “Centre” of the Party (or the liberal part). There are also a lot chancers who have no deep political convictions but who will run with whatever seems fashionable or popular this week. The rot really seems to have set in when local Associations lost the real power to elect their own candidates. The other parties are no better.
I can’t see how this model can be changed because all main parties will cling to it. Maybe PR is the answer (although I’ve never liked it) but I can’t see how we put real democracy back into party political politics otherwise.
July 21, 2023
The Conservative party has had its day. It needs to go the way of The Whigs.
That way, the centre left and chancers would need to find a new party to join.
The conservatives would then need to rebuild a completely new party from the ground up.
Labour is already broken and will soon run into trouble. Keith Starmer has just papered over the cracks.
July 21, 2023
New Conservatives = Reform Party
July 21, 2023
‘But the policies you don’t like will remain’. It is always thus.
July 21, 2023
Boris was clear on his acceptance speech that the traditional labour voters had âonlyâ lent their vote to see brexit through âŠ.Boris and the Tory government quickly forgot the voters and still donât understand that they want low immigration, low taxation, a real brexit and net-zero cancelled
July 21, 2023
Hopefully, the voters in Uxbridge have just nudged their memories Glen. It doesn’t tell us too much about the next General Election but I think Mr Khan must be having second thoughts about how to fund TfL’s cashflow problems…
July 21, 2023
He doubled down in the interview I saw.
July 21, 2023
The lads not for ‘changin’
July 21, 2023
Pud, payroll taxes have dropped for anyone earning under ÂŁ35,000 due to the NI personal allowance rise.
We all seem to have different reasons for disillusionment with our elected government. Mine is how they don’t discuss anything positive and frozen personal allowances affecting child benefit re-claw. I have previously given lists it is not all bad for everyone; lower-paid workers have gained, especially from the 10% national minimum wage increase this April. Jobs were so buoyant that it was a national resignation last year, with people switching for perceived better-paid work. More apprenticeships, more opportunities I know a couple of people taking a year in Canada and America as part of their degree through the new Turing scheme that they are very excited about.
If you think taxes are high now, you’re not listening to the left; older people have all the wealth; they’re hoarding and need to be punished for saving and achieving unearned interest now; gardens need taxing more, there need to be more letters of the alphabet on council taxes, pensions need taxing more, the state pension needs means testing, businesses must pay more, people must be taxed and frustrated off the roads, 15-minute restriction of movement zones, charges for services older people use more as the boomers are inconsiderably living too long. Our unions have the whip hand over us, so imagine what they will be like with their subsidised government. Labour is putting very young inexperienced MPs, these young adults are completely indoctrinated against house-owners.
I’m fed up; everyone I speak to is fed up, all we hear on TV is doom talk every hour; it’s too much. Why do you think mental health problems are escalating? We are told how badly we are doing on everything; when you ask people to zero in, it’s usually food prices even though they don’t check their shopping lists, or change their shopping habits, not being able to see a doctor, lack of fast referrals for tests, and dental restrictions and excess charges unless you are fully private.
They need more money; covid cost us trillions; there’s only one group of people to extract that money from because they can’t grow the pot; look at what the Councils do when they try to do commerce with their green projects and shopping centres!
July 22, 2023
But on of the other two will so not change there.
July 21, 2023
Isnât one of the global diktats that we become âpost democraticâ?
3/4 of the way there now⊠as with 15 min cities.
Idiocy and cruelty have won the day, hands down!
July 21, 2023
A demonstration that even our brainwashed electorate is finally seeing that politics offers nothing to them whilst extracting wealth at every opportunity.
July 21, 2023
+++
Absolutely!
July 21, 2023
Yes the madness of the Labour London Mayor’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, saved the Conservatives from a wipe out. But still did not prevent a huge swing away from the Conservatives.
If Sunak does not realise he is in serious trouble now, he never will, sadly too little too late to change policies now.
The only hope is a complete Labour policy failure, but then does the Country want to continue with present Conservative polices under Sunak and Hunt. ?
July 21, 2023
@Berkshire Alan He doesnât care he will hold what he thinks is the limelight until he retires to the sun.
July 21, 2023
12,000 Conservative voters stayed at home and only 5,000 Labour supporters stayed at home so Labour got closer.
Imagine if those 17,000 voters had turned up and spoiled their papers. They would have been the majority, now that would have been a story.
July 21, 2023
or better still – voted for a new Party claiming the policies the Electorate want!
July 21, 2023
BA – SUNAK does not care nor for that matter does anybody else. They are all career politicians. Follow the money. Your government does not care about YOU.
July 21, 2023
All three of these by-elections were the result of deep personal failings in the existing MPs. And I’m not impressed by the quality of their replacements. But I do wonder if Johnson might have won at Selby!
Today, Sunak must start reshuffling. He must embrace Conservatism – because it works. And he must show some bravery, some spine. The de-banking affair might serve to spur him in the right direction: the government’s response has some elements of strength in it, and attracted kind words on GBN.
July 21, 2023
We’ve had PMs that didn’t believe in brexit, and we haven’t got brexit
We now have a PM that doesn’t believe in conservatism …
July 21, 2023
He doesn’t seem to want the country’s workers to be motivated to work for realistic pay, losing much smaller sums to outrageous spending on joke projects, handing out ÂŁbillions to lame duck states who spend fortunes on nuclear weapons, space exploration while having dozens if not hundreds of billionaires living there!
July 21, 2023
I’m afraid that successive ‘Conservative’ governments have taken their core conservative vote for very much granted and the end result is that those voters are no longer willing to turn out for them anymore. If Mr Sunak does decide to shuffle his cabinet, then he really should start with Mr Hunt but I suspect he won’t…
July 21, 2023
Well at least ULEZ lost , which is a win for us , and a set back for the Net Zero zealots in the Uni-party
July 21, 2023
It is worth a reminder that in May 2021 the Conservatives won the Hartlepool by-election, a monumental achievement for a governing party especially when memories of lockdown were still lingering.
Two years on, when we have seen the economic consequences of lockdown, combined with perceived impotence in the face of the politics of affront (illegal immigration invasion, sexualisation of infant children, eco-terrorists blocking roads with impunity, and – on by-election day – the personal banking scandal aid bare: a far from exhaustive list), it is hardly surprising that the local electorates have chosen in two instances to kick the government in the groin in the full knowledge that it will still be in office today, and in one instance to kick the main opposition harder because one of its flagship local green religion policies is ten times worse.
If we now look back to the plan behind registering the domain name “Ready for Rishi” and awaiting the right moment to strike, we may ask ourselves whether he did so because he believed his personal popularity and/or his programme for government would be better than that of Boris Johnson, or because he wanted to embellish his CV as soon as he could. How well has any of that worked out?
July 22, 2023
Well its worked out very badly for us that is for sure. But don’t worry, he and his billionaire wife won’t have to decide between eating and heating (their swimming pool) this winter.
July 21, 2023
The unfortunately bit is the UniParty will take comfort that all 3 of their candidates had a seeming headline success.
To the electorate it is a kick in the teeth, they have been disenfranchised. The election of one just party because that was all that was on offer.
I haven’t found the figures yet, but how much of the results were influenced by voter apathy?
July 22, 2023
20,000 Conservative voters did not vote in Selby. I.e. they did not defect. That probably wasn’t apathy but fury.
July 21, 2023
Uxbridge was mostly a single issue vote but I suspect many West Londoners could not vote for the moral certainty exuded by Danny Beale’s campaigners. Coutts-like in their inclusivity they carpeted the area like the recent plague of flying ants.
So pleased they lost even though I couldn’t not bring myself to vote Conservative. Low turnout yet voters still couldn’t bring themselves to turn up and vote for one of the many protest candidates.
All the while that voters won’t use their vote to register complaints there will be no change. Instead of staying at home they must turn up, spoil the paper or vote protest or single issue party. In Uxbridge there were several anti-ulez candidates who did not get votes. If not now, then when?
July 22, 2023
+1
July 21, 2023
Vote Blue, vote Red, vote Yellow you’ll get the same outcome. Lunatic politicians following woke/Gween nonsense to the detriment of the electorate.
July 21, 2023
Agree – the only way ahead is the reform party
July 21, 2023
That policy does not work. Do the fruitless UKIP years teach nothing?
July 21, 2023
Reform and Reclaim are the only people keeping these lefties in check
July 22, 2023
How? Neither have a single vote in Parliament. Itâs the real Tories and the DUP keeping them in check. We need more of them.
July 22, 2023
Lynn …’we need more of them’
Just how to make that happen?
July 22, 2023
âReform and Reclaim are the only people keeping these lefties in checkâ: Thatâs delusion of the highest order, glen.
Selby & Ainsty, Reform, 3.72%
Somerton & Frome, Reform, 3.36%
Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Reclaim, 2.31%
And at the May â23 local elections, Reform got 2 councillors and UKIP lost 3, and no council and this out of 230 councils and 8054 councillors.
July 22, 2023
The “fuitless” UKIP years …. which I enthusiastically participated in ….. eventually forced the CONs to deliver an EU Referendum and Brexit (except the treacherous CONs refused to deliver it).
July 22, 2023
Correct
July 21, 2023
Sir john
Two main parties,
One very bad, one extremely bad,
Which ever is in government is a struggle for the working people of the UK .
July 21, 2023
…and the other one stood on a policy of scraping ULEZ, which will never happen unless this government amends the law, which it wont ! therefore a waste of the public vote if the government isn’t listening
July 21, 2023
Why should Sunak care? Does he or anyone else think his future is in politics?
July 21, 2023
The more that Sunak follows the net-zero & woke policies of Joe Biden, the more secure his green card application
July 22, 2023
BINGO !!!!
July 21, 2023
The tories didn’t win, the anti ULEZ won ….but is anyone listening
July 21, 2023
And isnât it ironic that it was the Tory government that made the laws, regulations and statutory instruments giving the powers to the London Mayor and local councils to implement ULEZ âŠ.they scared to amend those laws in fear of derailing their policy on net-zero
July 21, 2023
So we go into another Summer recess in Parliament with record numbers still crossing the channel. Nothing more will be done until October when Parliament opens again.
So yet another summer of record numbers crossing the channel. It is hardly going to help win the forthcoming General Election.
The Conservatives only won Uxbridge based upon the massive opposition to ULEZ. Rather than use this issue as an electioneering tool, they should be standing up to Sadiq Khan and revoking his power to expand the much hated scheme. Especially as it will have a huge economic impact on London.
The same should also be done in other towns and cities that have, or plan to implement such hated schemes.
It is clear that local Councils cannot be trusted on bigger issues. Therefore should not be given ever greater powers over running their respective areas.
July 21, 2023
They can’t answer questions if they’re all on summer recess (still using the 18th century land working calendar)
July 21, 2023
You also have to ask yourself JR.
How safe is your seat in Wokingham – considering the Selby result?
The true Conservatives of the party need to demand a meeting with Rishi and tell him straight – shape up, or lose badly in 2024.
No more waffle and spin, but action and clear results.
A popular sixth pledge would be to curtail this WOKE rubbish that is infecting every part of our lives and public services. Something the Conservatives have allowed to grow out of control.
If we don’t start seeing clear results to the ‘five pledges’, the Conservatives have absolutely no hope at all in 2024.
July 21, 2023
All petrol cars registered after January 2006, ie satisfying at least Euro4 emissions standards are ULEZ compliant. All diesel cars registered after September 2015, ie satisfying Euro6 emissions standards are ULEZ compliant.
According to rac.co.uk and the SMMT the average UK car is 8.4 years old, ie made after July 2014.
Considering the extended London ULEZ, 700k cars (850k vehicles) are thought to be non-ULEZ compliant (bbc.co.uk, 24/03/2023), thatâs one out of 10 cars seen driving in the extended ULEZ.
July 21, 2023
So only the poor working class who can’t afford a new car, have to pay the daily ULEZ levy
July 21, 2023
People do drive to London from elsewhere. The number of affected drivers who might do so number in the millions.
July 21, 2023
If I wanted to visit the capital, Iâd have to pay the levy on four ULEZ areas and one bridge toll âŠwhereâs the magna carta when you need it ?
July 22, 2023
No, check your statistics. The number of vehicles non-ULEZ compliant is one out of 10 whether they are those of Londoners or vehicles coming to London.
And glen, you might have to pay the Dartford crossing fee, but will pay twice only if you enter the ULEZ before midnight and get out after midnight ⊠otherwise it is one fee per 24 hours 0:00 to 23:59 (tfl.gov.uk, âULEZ: Where and when?â
Do you ever check before writing?
And your magna carta reference is just ludicrous: Magna Carta essentially defined the rights of the barons vs the King, it had very little to do with the peasants.
What you should quote is the 1689 William and Mary Bill of Rights if you want to give the impression of being educated ⊠otherwise âŠ
July 22, 2023
The quoting of the âmagna cartaâ is inspiring dream, a hope, a cry for freedom
July 21, 2023
10 per cent. That’s actually what Kahn’s advert for ULEZ on radio says. So, if it’s only 10 per cent what’s the point? That’s not suddenly going to turn the air clean is it? Shows it is just a tax raising scam.
July 21, 2023
correct
July 22, 2023
And you still believe everything the BBC tells you.
When will you ever learn ?
July 22, 2023
Are you as ÂŁ&*#ÂŁ as glen? What about RAC and SMMT references?
July 22, 2023
Are you still believing everything Toby Young tells you?
Will you ever learn.
July 21, 2023
I wasn’t surprised that the Somerset vote went to the Lib Dems.
Back in the days of Paddy Ashdown, the Constituency was a Lib Dem stronghold.
July 21, 2023
RIP UK. Voters had a chance to elect something different and they failed.
July 21, 2023
The results show the government is very unpopular but that can potentially be overcome (as Uxbridge shows) if the Conservative Party can show voting Conservative will cost voters substantially less in taxes and voting for the Opposition will cost them substantially more even if that means acting like India or China on ‘green’ issues. Starmer will see that and so the Conservatives must go further in a low tax/growth strategy than Starmer can go, starting now. It also means getting rid of Sunak because the very person who put taxes up to the highest in 70 years despite his self-stated ‘instincts’ won’t be trusted to cut taxes (in opposition to Treasury advice) after a General Election.
July 21, 2023
The Windsor “Betrayal” was spun by Sunak as being a great triumph, on the same day that the EU were making it clear that it was the complete opposite. To my mind this was misleading Parliament, and the people. This puts a few minor fibs about who ate pieces of cake etc. into context. Boris may have mislead parliament about these inconsequential matters, but this is irrelevant in comparison with the Windsor “Betrayal”.
Truss may not have got everything right, but at least she tried to provide Hope. Sunak is goong the right way to destroy all hope. There is now no hope for the Conservative Party.
July 21, 2023
Agree – the month that Liz was PM was the only time in 13 years of hope & light ….its all gone dark again
July 22, 2023
I guess the above sentence is to be understood as âthe month that Liz was PM was the only time of hope and light in 13 yearsâ.
July 22, 2023
You bring so much to this debate
July 22, 2023
As much as you, dear.
July 21, 2023
And two conservative losses due to anti motorist policy against ice. Africa, Asia and S America will not want EVs. What an UK export opportunity. Malcolm
July 21, 2023
These by-elections show something — Not enough people have realised how culpable the big 3 parties are for the current state of our country.
Nothing will change until a lot more people wake up to the reality of where the political institutes are taking us.
Fox, one of our great hopes to bring sanity back to British politics won hardly any seats……….. Until the new smaller sensible parties can come together under some kind of electoral umbrella they will continue to fail. Now is not the time for differences with those on the same side – time to emphasise the similarities and the real goal of dismantling the liblabcon.
July 21, 2023
Bryan H,
New parties have had little success under the current system. If Farage cannot get elected then Fox or Tice have no hope whatsoever.
The downfall of an established party is the main requirement for a new entrant. Whigs made way for Liberals. Liberals fell to Labour.
Labour is now very shaky and a far cry from the party that emerged in the early 20th century.
If the Conservative Party goes under there may be room for a new party to replace it.
Things may get much worse before there is any sign of improvement though.
July 21, 2023
The results are not a a reflection on overall public opinion . There is a huge mountain to climb for the Conservatives and only a major change in the economy can achieve this . Drop in inflation is one thing but restoring enterprise is another . As things stand Sunak’s persona is weak and Hunt is the wrong man for his present job . Casting my eye over the faces in the front bench of the Conservatives does not give me confidence that much can happen with a reshuffle from there . There are stronger voices at the back and that is where the changes should come from .
July 21, 2023
Under Sunak, many Conservative MPs are doomed.
They have nothing to lose by replacing him immediately.
Why the delay ?
July 21, 2023
The Tories have just been decimated, why isnât he resigning, why arenât others asking for his head
July 21, 2023
They’re rabbits in the headlights of what’s coming towards them, Glen.
July 22, 2023
No ! They the man THEY WANTED !!!
And we’ve got the MP’s we deserve.
July 21, 2023
Message to Lord Frost:
Your article in the DT on July 9th gave me hope except that i cannot see Sunak implementing any of the policies you mentioned. I therefor implore you to surrender your title and put yourself forward as a Conservative Candidate in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election. If you are not selected then please stand anyway. A Labour administration would be disastrous, but your re-entry to the front line would be a powerful tonic for all true Conservatives.
July 21, 2023
It is not hard to understand why the Tories Lise. It is hard to understand why they do not know what to do about it.
July 21, 2023
Agree
July 21, 2023
PG – The majority are gloabalist and therfore will follow the agenda. YOU ,the party, the Country are irrelevant.
July 21, 2023
Hmmm, trebles all round in the pro EU camp.
July 21, 2023
I’ve just sent this letter to our local newspaper, the Maidenhead Advertiser:
“I imagine local Liberal Democrats are jubilant that their party has pulled off another of its trademark by-election triumphs.
I view it with equanimity, because at least one knows where they stand: totally committed to the European federal project.
The Tories, on the other hand, have long been the past masters of deceit over that, back six decades to Macmillan and Heath.
They call themselves the “Conservative and Unionist” party, and talk about “our precious Union”, while being prepared to break up the United Kingdom for the sake of a low value special trade deal with the European Union.
Rishi Sunak even told people in Northern Ireland that they have unique “dual access” to both the UK and the EU markets.
In 2022 businesses in Great Britain sold goods worth over ÂŁ166 billion to the EU; so how did they manage to do do that, when supposedly it is only businesses in Northern Ireland that have access to the EU single market?
Looking at the dismal parade of five Tory Prime Ministers since 2010 I cannot imagine myself ever voting for that party.
Indeed I am shocked that Theresa May expects to stand again here, after the huge damage she has done to our country.”
Reference: According to the table in Section 7.1 here:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf
in 2022 our total goods exports to the EU were worth ÂŁ193.7 billion, and of that total only ÂŁ5.9 billion were sent from Northern Ireland.
Some goods were unallocated, but goods worth at least ÂŁ166 billion were exported to the EU by businesses based in Great Britain.
July 21, 2023
A good letter, Denis+Cooper!
July 21, 2023
Reduce taxes quick as this is the only way to gain respectability again. The pocket is where is hurts so you know what you have to do. I am down ÂŁ20 on one of my little pensions and I cannot keep taking the hit. Hunt is not really the person who gains trust, never has been, never will be, so remove him I would say. Sunak is seen as the man who stabbed Boris as was Major with Thatcher, so what you do with him I do not know. You have had 13 years and seem to be going all out to produce results in the last 18 months. Too late I would say but you can always hope. Get the Animal Reform Bill back on the statute before the election or you will lose another chunk of the vote – I might not vote if you do not in protest.
July 21, 2023
They’ve forgotten what it means to be Tory
July 21, 2023
Linda, but there were results prior to 2019, the conservatives got re-elected, having given the public three chances to get rid of them after 2010, ultimately Boris and this current government were elected with a massive majority and it was only with the concerted effort of a group of MPs in this party that they didnât progress as they should after 2019.
July 22, 2023
That and the fact that Farage stood down all his candidates in 2019.
July 22, 2023
Yes, I accept that Mark, I really think Reform, Rethink and all those others ought to really think about putting people up against pro-uk MPs like John Redwood, all that will achieve is electing some pro-europe wet Lib Dem (I appreciate there are already a lot of masquerading LibDem Tories but JR isnât one of them). Everyone needs to wake up because the left are better targeting, Vorderman is bragging daily now about a tactical voting system.
Weâve seen this week the British public are willing to elect a 25 year old inexperienced MP to a high salaried, high responsibility role, someone who hasnât built a business by that age, creating wealth and work for people. NO theyâd prefer to elect an Oxbridge political class indoctrinated automate who only knows how they think they should spend other peopleâs taxes and whatâs best for us. This next generation perhaps deserve what is coming next. Itâd be like putting one of your graduate children in charge of your business straight out of Uni and hope it works out for everyone. I actually know of a business where the first thing the new leaders did was change the logo on everything costing a fortune, it wasnât good, so theyâve paid to change it all again a couple of years later, it still isnât good and will need doing again whilst not concentrating on what really matters and put them out of business for a couple of weeks.
July 22, 2023
âA 25-year old inexperienced MPâ. Would you have said that of the 22 year old Gladstone or the 25-year old Churchill?
âI am young, it is true, but for souls nobly born, valour doesnât await the passing of yearsâ
âJe suis jeune, il est vrai, mais aux Ăąmes bien nĂ©es, la valeur nâattend point le nombre des annĂ©esâ, Pierre Corneille, Le Cid, 1636, Act 2, sc.2, v.405-406, as said by Don Rodrigo to his father, the old Don Diego.
July 22, 2023
Yes hefner I would, am I not allowed my own opinion? Had the two men come straight out of university too? I donât know much about either person.
Itâs more his work experience than just his about his age, at 25 Iâd been running a couple of companies for seven years and had lots of responsibilities, staff and debts having to grow businesses up from scratch. How the heck was he âa senior public affairs adviser for the Confederation of British Industry (CBI),â I think that says everything wrong with the CBI.
This is not a âpartyâ point either hefner, I just think all candidates should have some âwork experienceâ and that doesnât mean coming straight out of uni into a quango.
July 22, 2023
Iâve just read a quick wiki link to Gladstone, not much impressed me there of his first five years as an MP, voting in line with many of his fathers views. In fact I feel it strengthens my view of a man elected before he was ready, from his links and connections.
July 22, 2023
Was it your own opinion from the start or were you parroting Johnny Mercer?
July 23, 2023
I donât parrot anybody! Iâm not a Johnny Mercer fan, I went to look what he had said. The minister said: âI think itâs always good to get new people in politics. I think we mustnât become a sort of repeat of The Inbetweeners, right?â
I donât even know what the Inbetweeners are?
I have been consistent on this, I said the same about Mhairi Black. I really do believe MPs need real world working experience outside of politics/quangos otherwise they just parrot lecturers and perhaps parents until they establish themselves.
I agreed the Selby people didnât care about the same things I care about and elected him, in the article I read his mother and grandmother came out to defend him and said he wanted to be PM from the age of 5 or 6, so thatâs alright then, heâs obviously got all the right connections to do it.
July 22, 2023
He didn’t stand down all this candidates: only those standing against Conservatives. So remainers like Benn and Yvette Cooper had the Brexit vote against them split.
July 23, 2023
Well that was silly of them wasnât it, or were some MPs to be protected knowing they would split the leave vote.
July 21, 2023
You cannot buy the electorate with last minute investments. But for not wanting ULEZ you would be 3 nil down. For your time in office you have progressively given the Conservatives among the electorate nothing to vote for. As ever parties lose elections, rarely do they win them. You have been itemising conservative deficiencies for months, but nobody in your government pays attention. Predicting a GE from three byelections cannot go further than the conclusion that you are on your way out. That you do not deserve it personally is a given, but I suspect that the HoC will be an even more hostile place than today for MPs who identify as real Conservatives. Mediocrity reigns and the people lose.
July 21, 2023
You stand more chance of buying them with âlast minute tax cutsâ than with âpromises of tax cuts if you winâ.
They had better scrap Inheritance tax, VAT on Energy, all the âgreen taxesâ and raise the thresholds.
Reducing inflation does not drop prices, it slows their increase!
July 21, 2023
âThis morningâs update from the Office for National Statistics reveals that public sector net borrowing has come in lower than forecast at the March Budget: ÂŁ18.5 billion last month, compared with the Office for Budget Responsibilityâs prediction of ÂŁ21.1 billion.â Source Telegraph
Isnât it amazing that this comes out the day after the by-elections! The OBR prediction âonlyâ ÂŁ3.4bn out!
July 21, 2023
Sunak & Hunt will declare their policy of high taxation & high interest rates a great success
July 21, 2023
Yes but their higher corporation taxes didnât hit until April and these figures were March.
They actually continued with the reduction in national insurance by increasing the personal allowance by ÂŁ3000 pa.
I think Hunt and Sunak have made a massive mistake with 25% corporation tax, a drop in dividend allowances, but by far the biggest factor is frozen personal allowances (fiscal drag) and taking child benefit back off a parent who earns over ÂŁ50k but allowing a couple to earn ÂŁ98k. If they donât encourage business to generate income the country is going to be screwed because government and local councils certainly canât make money, from green energy businesses they waste money on to shopping centres and investments they make with our rates, frankly it is criminal what they get away with.
To pretend we have Brexited but keep aligning with the EU is ridiculous and insulting that they think we donât see it. The bill if weâd stayed in would be massive, the costs to us of Erasmus, the impact on our low wages continued rather than going into reverse.
July 21, 2023
The Lib Dems turned a 19k majority into an 11k majority in their direction. Wow.
A majority of 20k was overturned by Labour in Selby. Wow.
Uxbridge can be ignored as an outlier because of the local ULEZ issue (there aren’t enough local issues of that magnitude to go round 600+ seats in a General Election).
If those results doesn’t tell the Conservative Party that Sunak and Hunt need to go soon then I guess they really have given up on the next election.
Hiding behind the Uxbridge election is not realistic – the other two reflect the real situation. Dire. Start sending your letters to Brady, Tory MPs. Trouble is… who do you have left to lead the party that isn’t a raving wet remoaner? Ditching Truss was a mistake – unless of course Conservative MPs had another agenda, beyond the fortunes of their party.
July 21, 2023
30k swing to the Lib Demâs. I think that might be a record.
July 21, 2023
The results show that whichever party is in power when new petrol cars and gas boilers are banned will be heavily punished at the ballot box, as is already happening in Germany.
July 21, 2023
I can’t see the logic of voting in a parliamentary election ‘against ULEZ’ – which is a matter devolved to the Mayor of London. Whoever is MP for Uxbridge cannot hope to influence the Mayor’s legislative powers.
In fact, if ULEZ really is a concern, then Boris Johnson should have lost the seat (had he been standing) as it was he who planned and implemented the scheme when he was Mayor of London, in 2015.
July 21, 2023
Our government could amend the law tomorrow and ULEZ would disappear
July 21, 2023
People do not want or like the Tory party and do not want to vote Labour which however will win the next election hands down.
It is time to change an electoral system which has produced consistently bad governance for a very long time to the point that there is very little appetite for any of the incumbents.
Our worst legacy to our former colonies is the First Past the Post electoral system which in this country disenfranchises two thirds of voters at a general election. New Zealand recognised this and went about reforming their electoral system through a succession of referendums to enable the voting public to decide which alternative system they would prefer.
Voters should be able to dispense with failed parties entirely, rather than to bleat about the wrong leaders or the wrong policies and replace them with parties with policies that more accord with present priorities. Perhaps then John Redwood would not have to spend so much time explaining why his government’s policies are wrong, wrong, wrong.
July 21, 2023
I see Sir John has spotted the electoral opportunism of the government announcement yesterday of the Tata JLR EV battery factory ‘to be sited in Somerset’. I chuckled when I read the news, realizing that some time after the by-election was over (possibly in the approaching dog-days) the factory would quietly revert to the obvious and already earmarked site for it near Coventry Airport – near the JLR factory.
Wherever they end up being, those highly-subsidized battery factory jobs will prove extremely expensive for the UK taxpayer. The employees should really be conveyed to work with each one riding on a palanquin atop a highly-decorated white elephant…
July 21, 2023
Itâs really hard to get staff near Coventry it needs siting where there is higher unemployment.
July 21, 2023
Totally agree, Starmer thought it would be a wipe out, Davey already measuring up for the curtains at No.10 but even the Greens and Reform party got more votes than them in 2 out of 3, not much to write home about.
July 21, 2023
Sunak today ”we’re going to double down on our policies …they’re working”
What planet is he on ?
July 22, 2023
But glen, they are working. Just not for us.
July 21, 2023
Dear Mr. Redwood,
The results show:
1. The Conservative Parliamentary Party (not the members) does not seem capable nor desiring of a return to being conservative.
2. The Labour Party, though there is no great clamour for them, is on track for a return to government.
3. The Liberal Party will return to their constituencies and prepare for opposition come the GE.
What a thoroughly depressing choice voters are faced with. A huge gap exists for a new party on the right and never was there a greater need.
July 21, 2023
LIke all by-elections. the ruling party was hammered, especially over the massive increase in the cost of living.
It seems very likely that the party will regain Selby and Ainsty at the General Election where so many Conservative voters did not turn out to vote yesterday.
As for Uxbridge, the surprise was that Conservtives only won by 495 votes, given the suicide note for Labour that is Khan’s expansion of ULEZ.
Somerton & Frome had been a LibDim seat up until 2016 and given their past achievements in by-elections, this is hardly a surprise. But I suspect they will hang onto it at the General Election.
Few people voted forStarmer with any enthusiasm and Labour needs to make significant gains to secure a firm.GE win. He needs a good campaign with no mistakes and it seems likely that he will need to win big in Scotland to have a real chance of a majority.
July 21, 2023
I see that the Green Party came third in each of the by-elections with an average of just 2,000 votes âŠ..with practically no-one voting for them, why are we following their net-zero agenda and policies
July 21, 2023
home office data as at 20th July 2023
Illegal Immigrants â 291
Small Boats â 5
Did anyone see the news clip of the luxury cruise ship/barge accommodation
July 22, 2023
Our own homeless could do with something like that. Why is no one pointing this out ?
July 21, 2023
Labour lost Uxbridge. Conservatives lost the other two. Nobody won any. Voters cheesed off with all the main parties. Main parties all too similar on far too many policies, giving the voters no real choice and opinion closer to theirs on key issues. The political class are in trouble, they could easily be wiped out by a new united force entering politics made up of people who have half a clue, or many of the smaller parties uniting and getting some newcomers. Labour & Libs doing deals to only allow candidate from one or the other seems to help them, probably the notionally righter wing parties should do something similar.
July 22, 2023
Good morning.
Did something instantly forgettable happen ? đ€
July 22, 2023
Yeah, the mass hypnosis of the Tory parliamentary party
July 23, 2023
Below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to my MP, Ranil Jayawardena. See if you agree.
Dear Ranil
BY-ELECTIONS AND THE GENERAL ELECTION
Recent opinion polls confirm that Labour remains about 20% ahead of the Conservatives (you can find them all on a Wikipedia site). The three recent by-election results are in line. Note that in the opinion polls the Reform Partyâs share of the poll is about 6%; the Conservatives will need to recover those votes.
The results are hardly surprising because the Sunak/Hunt/Bailey axis is governing the country badly.
Let us start with inflation and monetary policy because itâs the easiest. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, pure and simple. The Ukraine war influenced which prices went up but it is a fact that UK inflation was 5.5% and rising rapidly before the start of the Ukraine war. Japan, which is a lot more dependent on imported energy than the UK, has had only 3% inflation. Nor is the common excuse âInflation is a global phenomenonâ valid in any meaningful sense. Central bankers are prone to group think and the central banks of the USA, UK and EU all behaved irresponsibly at the same time. Throughout 2021, the UK BoE continued with ultra-low interest rates and additional QE; the resultant inflation was predictable and predicted. Andrew Bailey should be sacked; probably the reason that it hasnât happened is that the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the time â one Rishi Sunak â encouraged the BoE to act as it did, because borrowing in FYR 2020/21 reached ÂŁ303 billion.
Year on year inflation has gone down from 8.7% to 7.9% in a single month. This is a preliminary indication that month on month inflation is about zero. There is probably no need for any further increase in Base Rate. There are already over one million mortgage holders who will suffer misery when their 2% mortgage rates are upped to 7%. The BoE should keep Base Rate constant for several months to see what happens to inflation.
Liz Truss got into trouble and lost office for her âunfunded tax cutsâ. As I recollect it, the markets were spooked by the prospect of annual borrowing north of ÂŁ250 billion. During the three months April to June 2023. UK government borrowing totalled ÂŁ64.1 billion which, when extrapolated to a full year, yields ÂŁ256.4 billion. So the doctrine of all of our âresponsible adultsâ appears to be that unfunded tax cuts are taboo but unfunded public expenditure increases are OK. In this, Sunak and Hunt are supported by all of the standard national and international organisations â OBR, IMF, OECD etc etc. That doesnât make them right.
Nevertheless, the tax cuts proposed by Liz Truss and yourself need to be offset by public expenditure cuts on a large scale. I sent you a seven page note of possible cuts â an a la carte menu rather than a personal manifesto. You donât need to agree with any of my suggestions but you do need to come up with suggestions for cuts of your own.
In the short term, monetary policy and fiscal policy can diverge but in the medium to long term there is such a thing as a non-inflationary annual borrowing requirement. UK GDP is about ÂŁ2,500 billion. Assuming 2% real growth pa (generous), then to keep prices stable narrow money supply needs to increase by 2% of ÂŁ2,500 billion, i.e. by ÂŁ50 billion pa. We are currently borrowing much more than this. Even allowing for Laffer curve effects, tax cuts need to be accompanied by expenditure cuts. IF YOUâRE SPENDING TOO MUCH, SPEND LESS.
Iâm looking to see some progress before the General Election and further progress promised in the Conservative manifesto. Top priority for the short term are a reduction in corporation tax from 25% to 12%, shadowing the Republic of Ireland, and increasing the income tax thresholds to ÂŁ20,000 and ÂŁ70,000 pa. Public expenditure cuts should include ending legal aid for unwanted immigrants and shedding public sector non-jobs, particularly in the NHS bureaucracy, our loss making railways and our ineffective regulators and quangos. Yes, retired old codgers like me will have to bear our share of the pain.
Orthodox economists in the Treasury, the BoR, the OBR and the IMF wouldnât recognise a Laffer curve if it hit them in the face or was shoved up their collective rectum. Hopefully, they will have an opportunity to learn as a sensible economic policy is put into practice. I anticipate that our economic growth will come mainly from SMEs.
I for one am not going to vote for socialism with a Conservative label attached. If you want my vote, you will have to try very hard to get Conservative policy changed.