In 1932  total UK public spending was £1 397 million. If you adjust for inflation that is £82 887 million.

So as the UK government this year is spending £737 100 million, what is all this nonsense about returns to the 1930s?

The government has recently published more figures showing the real changes in public spending in recent years. These reveal that real spending has gone up in several large programmes, including health, social security and general public services. It has also risen in international services including overseas aid, EU contributions, science and technology and environmental protection. There have been real cuts in defence, public order, recreation and culture, and enterprise and economic development. Overall general government consumption went up by 1.5% in 2014, and is going up by another 0.8% this year,  in real terms ,  according to the Budget Red Book. General government investment rose by 7.3% last year and by another 2.3% this year in real terms. Real household disposable income rose by 1.4% last year and is forecast to rise by 3.7% this year.

One of the difficult areas to research is what has happened to local authority grants and spending. Many Councils argue they have faced large cuts. The figures are difficult to deduce because in 2013-14 the government reclassified large sums, with the localisation of business rates and of Council tax benefit. In a recent  government publication it shows the pattern of so called Local Government Resource AME as £284 m in 2009-10, rising to £11,123 million in 2013-14, whereas Resource DEL fell from £26.805 billion in 2009-10 to £16.281 billion in 2013-14. If we add the two together the sums rose from £27.089 bn in 2009-10 to £27.5bn in 2013-14, a modest rise which also needs to be adjusted for any changes in responsibilities. There was also at the same time some redistribution of grants undertaken to give a bit more relatively to Councils that received very little central grant.

The 2015 Budget Red Book has a figure for locally financed current expenditure. This rose from £33 bn in 2013-14, to £35.8bn in 2-14-15, and is forecast to rise to £37.6bn in 2015-16. These are cash figures and are not adjusted for any change in responsibilities. Locally financed capital spending is constant at £7bn a year for the three years. The good news is public satisfaction with Council services has not fallen during this period, despite many Councils stating they have faced cuts in their grants and budgets.

Some green policies   really do destroy jobs, plunge people into fuel poverty and make our lives difficult. A recent report says that the UK should make its carbon dioxide targets even more taxing, to allow for all the CO2 emitted in places like China when making items to export to us.

So let’s get this straight. The UK has lost a lot of industrial capacity, in no small measure because Green energy policies have driven up our price of energy and helped make us uncompetitive with lower energy cost countries. This at least allowed us to hit CO2 targets a bit more easily, as we no longer use all that energy to make things. Under international rules each country accounts for the CO2 it generates. If a country decides to gain industrial market share, it has to do more to cut CO2 emissions elsewhere in its society if it is going to be part of the international agreements on these matters. If a country decides on deindustrialisation as one way to hit CO2 targets, that works under current accounting rules.

Some of us have gone hoarse warning that pushing up UK and EU energy prices will simply shift CO2 generating activities from us to parts of the world who do not share this concern. Now that has come to pass, it is amazing that we are being told it is our fault and we need to penalise ourselves further. If we do so, then we will lose even more industry, and doubtless be told that we need to tighten further to allow for more imports.

When interviewed on the radio, a proponent of this  approach said he wanted people to change their behaviours. He gave two examples. People should not expect to own their own car, but should use public transport or hire and share cars when needed. He also thought that  we should run household appliances like fridges for many more years than we currently do, with more repairs. He seemed to think this would save a lot of energy, reducing the amount expended on making new machines. It would also mean running older less fuel efficient equipment for longer, whilst  destroying the jobs of appliance and car makers. More reliance on public transport can raise the amount of CO2 and other emissions , depending on bus and train utilisation  rates, age of the trains and buses, and on the way they are driven.

We also hear the good news that there are no US tornadoes in March, a most unusual outcome. The climate change forecasters who have told us to expect more extreme weather, have now amended this forecast to less frequent extreme weather but more extreme extreme weather. Maybe that covers the good news this March. It just goes to show how difficult forecasting is.

Personally I want the UK to have a stronger industrial base, not a smaller one, and want people to afford enough energy to have decent lives. The idea that we need more wind energy, which in turn means we will need more back up energy for when the wind is not  blowing does  not sound to me to be very green  let alone cost efficient.

My budget intervention and speech are available as text in the “Debates” section of this site. Videos of each are available below:

My intervention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaMHh8PYalc

My speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAvGP_vdy0s

So the Chancellor shot a few of Labour’s foxes.

First to go was the idea that the Conservatives will take the UK back to 1930s levels of spending. This is Labour’s favourite lie, based on confusing spending as a percentage of the economy with real levels of spending, which are currently nine times the 1930s! As explaining all that is difficult, the Chancellor has raised planned spending for 2019-20 so the percentage of the economy will be 36%, the same level as Mr Brown and Mr Blair chose in 2000. No return to the 1930s guaranteed.

Second to go was the idea that a further raid on the pension funds of the better off, and an increase in taxes on banks would pay for Labour’s programme. The Chancellor has done both those things, and the money is absorbed into the budget figures to help pay for the tax cuts the government offered.

Third to go was the idea that living standards had fallen this Parliament. The Chancellor gave us numbers to show they have gone up modestly, and are now rising at a better rate. GDP per capita is 5% higher, and real household income per capita is also up over the Parliament.

Fourth to go was the idea that the new jobs are all part time, zero hours or low skilled. The Chancellor assured us 80% are full time, and most are skilled.

So what is the underlying strategy? Mr Osborne has set out five years spending and taxing plans, so all know what they will get from a Conservative government. Other parties in the election will have to work from those figures and explain how they will pay for extra spending or how much extra they will borrow.

His plans are to get the budget into balance by 2018-19. Debt as a percentage of GDP will be falling from next year, 2015-16. Public spending is forecast to go up by £60 bn in cash terms in 2019-20 compared to 2014-15, with the largest increase in the final year. In 2016-17 there is a planned small cut in cash public spending.

Savers will benefit from £1000 tax free savings income on standard rate tax, and from more flexible ISAs.

There are some who seem to think we are back in a new cold war. They highlight aggressive actions by Russia. They respond with aggressive words, and with some sanctions. They see NATO as able to limit Russia’s aggression.

They should remember how bad the Cold War was, and remember that in those days the West knew the limits to its power. NATO spent much more of its income on defence, had larger forces than today, but decided it could do nothing about Russian aggression in any part of Eastern Europe. We watched as Russia invaded and subjugated an unhappy Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia. The NATO defensive umbrella, backed by the formidable nuclear arsenal of the USA, ensured Russian expansion would stop at the East German border.

Today things are not as bad as in the Cold War days. The main countries that wished to leave Russian control have done so. There are many more free states and peoples in Eastern Europe. Russia herself has changed a bit, with more free enterprise. At times Russia wishes to be a more mature power in the world, but in other ways behaves badly towards neighbours. Russia understands the NATO pledge to support all its members, and has concentrated on gaining influence or control in non NATO members close to its borders.

The west rightly condemns aggression to take territory and control people who do not wish to be ruled under Russian influence. The West also rightly has not made the position of people in East Ukraine or Georgia worse by intervening in the local wars. The aim of Western policy should be by diplomacy and economic action to limit Russian expansion, without wanting to extend the EU and NATO in turn. I see no reason to extend a NATO guarantee wider than has already been granted, and no need to expand the EU ever eastwards.

All those who currently enjoy the NATO umbrella should also be expected to spend more of their money on maintaining good defences at home. The UK and US are the only two NATO countries to presently meet all the requirements on a NATO state. Those who want our protection should also spend 2% of national income on defence, and spend 20% of their defence budget on equipment.

As we await the final version of each party’s 2015 Manifesto, I thought it a good idea to re read the Conservative 2010 version.

That Manifesto placed most emphasis on the need for economic recovery. Most of the policy proposals for the economy were geared to helping generate many more jobs. Much of what was promised has been delivered, and much of that delivery has produced the desired results in terms of jobs.

The Manifesto promised keeping interest rates lower for longer, which has happened. It promised a reduction in youth unemployment which has occurred, and an improvement in UK competitiveness in world league tables, which has also been achieved. The pledge to cut Corporation tax has been met,the banks have been reformed and strengthened as proposed, the OBR was set up, and Ministers’ pay was cut. The new government did reduce the National Insurance bills it inherited, has ended the annuity rule for pensions and increased the focus on STEM subjects at school and university. The IHT promise has not been delivered, falling foul of coalition agreements. Council Tax was frozen for two years as promised and then kept down. We have discussed immigration before, where the target was not met.

On Europe the Manifesto said

“We believe Britain’s interests are best served by membership of an EU that is an association of its member states. We will never allow Britain to slide into a federal Europe. Labour’s ratification of the Lisbon treaty without the consent of the British people has been a betrayal of this country’s democratic traditions. In government we will put in place a number of measures to make sure this shameful episode cannot happen again”. The government did enact legislait5on requiring a referendum for a future transfer of power or if any government wished to join the Euro. Conservatives ruled out joining the Euro, then and now. As the Manifesto made clear there was no promise of a referendum on Treaties which had already been ratified, including Lisbon.

The IMF is busy lending to a European country in deep difficulties – and this time it is not Greece. It looks as if current IMF lending has just got more political, with the IMF acting as some banking arm of European Union expansionism and centralisation. It is lending to Ukraine.

The good news is that this lending, unlike the loans to Greece , is to a country with its own currency. It can devalue, and just has undergone a massive devaluation. The Hryvania has fallen from 23 to the £1 in November last, to 32 to £1 now.

The bad news is that the loans are to country which just like Greece has a government which wishes to write off or renegotiate its past debts. Lending to countries which say themselves they already have too much debt and need to cut them, if necessary without the agreement of creditors, is a very risky and arguably unhelpful thing to do.

On top of that bad news, just as Greece has experienced economic collapse with large falls in output thanks to the Euro scheme, so Ukraine has suffered a sharp fall in output owing to a civil war and to the loss of some of the industrial parts of the country’s economy.

In Ukraine national income and output fell 6.9% last year, and the IMF thinks it will fall another 5.5% this year. The Finance Minister is seeking $15 billion of debt relief, saying she intends to carry through a mixture of offering a lower interest rate on past debts, extending the date before the money is repaid, and simply cancelling some of the value of the debt owing.

Ukrainian debt currently trades at around 40 cents for each dollar owed. The country has very high inflation, weak banks, and a large shopping list for weapons.

All this bodes ill for the success of the debt programme. It also should raise questions in people’s minds about the kind of Europe which the EU is creating. The slaughter has been extreme, the country has failed to keep its people friendly to Russia onside, and it has been outwitted by Russia herself with the annexation of Crimea. I of course condemn any Russian military interference in Ukraine, and condemn the deaths of UKrainian citizens by the rebel forces. I also dislike some of the actions of the present Ukrainian government, which has not found a way to stabilise its country and protect its own citizens, and condemn violence by the Ukrainian state against its own people. The EU has had no answer to this. The Ukrainians that look to the EU for their future should ask why they are now so much worse off, and why their lives have been endangered by recent events.

If you believe in a united Europe, as many of our EU advocates clearly do, you should feel as strongly about unemployed young people in Spain or poverty in Greece as you do about hardship in the UK. Labour and the Lib Dems say they like everything about our current level of EU integration, and like the EU as it is. If they ever remember to make a critical comment, it is not because they wish to change anything or intend to vote against any of its measures. This soon to expire Parliament has seen a complete absence of Labour opposition to any new laws or powers for the EU, just as they gave away so much power in 3 great Treaties when in government.

If the UK today had 50% youth unemployment as the south of Euroland currently suffers, Labour would never let us hear the end of it – and rightly so. If the UK had Greek levels of unemployment, and a Greek cost of living crisis which has depressed average real incomes by almost a quarter since 2007, again we would not hear the end of it, as Labour would rightly think it completely unacceptable. So why is it that these people who believe in pan European solidarity have nothing to say about the scandal of poverty and joblessness in large chunks of Euroland? Why are they not insisting on new policies for the EU?

Closer to home, Labour signed us up to a common energy policy. This energy policy with its dependence on renewables has locked us into much dearer electricity than competitor economies in the Americas and Asia. It is leading to the loss of industry in the UK and elsewhere in the EU. It is making it more difficult for people to afford their fuel bills. Again, why is there no criticism of the EU’s dear energy as Labour rightly condemns what they call fuel poverty, and dislike any impact from dearer energy on the cost and standard of living.

If you are a true supporter of a more united Europe, you should regard the loss of a job in Athens as seriously as you regard the loss of a job in a UK city. If you are an enthusiast for European solidarity and common working, you should be as aggressive in condemning poverty and unemployment on the continent as at home. If EU government through its energy scheme and through its common currency on the continent lies behind joblessness and poverty, why is it not criticised? Why is there no radical campaign for change? What socialist thinks Greek or Spanish economic policy is acceptable? Who would exchange our policy for theirs?

I will not believe UK politicians really understand a united Europe until they do raise the plight of the unemployed and unfortunate in Athens or Madrid as strongly as they would the plight of people in the UK.

So far so good. Many extra jobs have been created. The economy is growing at a reasonable pace. Inflation is low. On average real wages are going up. The deficit is coming down.

The critics were proved wrong. The UK did not go back into recession. There was no treble dip. We avoided the sorry course of economic development in most Euroland economies which stayed in recession or went back into recession after the 2008 crisis. UK Unemployment came down, despite the predictions of rising unemployment. The private sector more than made up for the reduction in public sector headcount. Critics were even proved wrong about the cost of living crisis, highlighting energy bills just before the price of oil and gas collapsed.

However, we still wish to see stronger rises in living standards, in real wages, and more people getting good jobs with decent prospects. No-one should be happy with current average income levels, nor relaxed all the time there are people without jobs or in jobs that are poorly paid.There are still many young people to educate, many people who need better skills and qualifications. More people can work for themselves and set up businesses. The next few years should be about real pay rises, as the UK works smarter and better. They also have to be about continued progress in removing the public sector deficit, which by general agreement remains too high.

The budget should explain how far we have come from the crisis, and how much more there is to do. I would like to hear a vision of a UK with more people running their own businesses, with more people owning a home, with more people gaining qualifications and getting the rewards for higher skills. I want to hear of tax cuts to come, so people can keep more of their own money and make better provision for their own families. I want to hear and see more measures to allow enterprise to flourish, including tax measures that allow the successful at establishing new businesses to keep more of their returns.

As this is the last budget of this coalition, doubtless any Income Tax cut will have to be in the form of a further increase in the Tax threshold. I do not mind, as Conservatives want tax cuts and will accept whatever ones the Lib Dems allow.

What would you like the Budget to include?