Tomorrow I give my lecture at All Souls Oxford on how to promote growth.

Chancellor Reeves would be well advised this week to be studying the US model. The US has outgrown Europe and the UK all thus century so far, and is forecast to grow more than twice as fast again this year. President Trump is determined to up their growth rate further.

Central to doing so, he has made his peace with the US tec giants. Regulations and taxes will be adjusted to assist their growth. The policy has got off to a great start with the announcement of a $500bn 4 year investment  by three of them. This compares with our Chancellor claiming a£600 m gain from her China visit spread over 5 years. The US announcement was 1000 times size of the UK!

The US will expend her oil and gas industry. We will close ours down. It will cut taxes. The UK has just put them up on business daring to employ people. The US welcomes billionaires and millionaires. The UK criticises them and taxes them out of the country.

It is going to take sone changes for the UK to grow faster than the US.

 

 

Several Executive Orders on Monday start to tackle  the high costs and overextension of US government. These are not getting the attention they deserve. Our Wastefinder General  Rachel could read and copy some of these.

1 Pause all overseas aid payments for up to 60 days, only allowing them to go ahead after review to see they are value for money and further sensible policy aims.

2. Freeze all hiring of administrative staff into government. Require Heads to draw up productivity raising plans using natural wastage to cut numbers. Prohibits use of outside contractors to get round ban.

3.  60 day ban on any new regulations, allowing review of whether anything is necessary in future.

4. Removal of barriers to increased oil, gas, minerals and coal production

5. Exit from Paris climate change Treaty to cut costs of net zero.

6. Establishment of Department Of Government Efficiency in White House reporting to Chief of Staff. Every department and governmental body to have a team of four senior people promoting greater efficiency.

7 Return to in person working

8 Recruitment and promotion to be based on merit only. DEI departments to be wound down.

This is a big agenda. It will be interesting to see if the senior managers can reflect these clear aims in workable plans to shrink the state.

 

 

Some of you have asked about this Bill. It is a private members Bill which is unlikely to pass unless the government backed it. There is no indication they are about to.

It is a Bill with huge financial, economic and social consequences. It instructs government to speed up the UK ‘s already rapid rundown of CO 2. It aims to make that much more difficult to do by requiring the UK to reduce not  just the CO 2 generated in the UK but also all the CO 2 produced abroad making and transporting imports into the UK.

I have been very critical of UK net zero policies which are based on shutting down UK oil, gas and industrial production to stop UK CO 2 generation, only to import products and energy from abroad ignoring the CO 2 produced there. It is absurd self harm resulting  in more world CO 2.

This Bill is even more harm, as the UK would have to make major cuts in consumption of energy and goods to comply. It would be a major hit to living standards. It is difficult to see how the UK could comply. Buying more Chinese battery cars would not help as plenty of CO 2 is spilled in their making, whilst we would need more  gas power stations when the wind is not blowing to recharge the cars.

The Bill also says it will end the nature crisis, the alleged run down of wild animals and plants. Wilding large extra areas of our country would force us to import more food with more CO 2 in its production and transport. There is no mention of the need to end migration of people to curb the erosion of nature by overdevelopment.

This so called CAN bill should be canned.

 

When I wrote a blog four years ago congratulating President Biden on his win and wishing him well I got some critical responses. I respect the democratic judgement of US voters, and the office of President . Today I offer my congratulations  to Donald Trump and wish him every success. I like his drive for peace in the world. I support his aim to lower taxes, reduce regulation and promote growth and greater prosperity.

Four years ago I was conscious I did not support some of Mr Biden’s   policies. I praised him for saying his aim was to unite a divided country, though said that would prove difficult. Unfortunately he did not carry it out.

 

It turned out he had as an aim preventing Mr Trump  from running again. He and his Administration tried all manner of allegations and lawfare tactics to stop him. The Democrats found it just made Mr Trump more popular with his followers. They failed in their self appointed main task, and deepened the divisions within the country by trying to say the main Opposition party’s views and policies were   unacceptable or illegal.

Today President Trump says  he will be a force for peace in Ukraine and Gaza. He will strengthen NATO, as the peace of the democracies  is secured by showing strong defence. He says he will lower taxes and cut the costs of government. That will reinforce faster US growth and should be an example to the UK and the  rest of Europe. He will liberate business sufficiently to boost jobs and investment. He will help the West by expanding output of gas, leaving us less dependent on Russia and the Middle East.

I wish him and the USA well. I urge the UK government to think again about how they work with our main ally. Keeping the Chagos and keeping our current Ambassador in post would start to correct the damage they have done to the relationship.

The UK government says it wants good relations with President Trump, yet many of their words and deeds set out to disagree with the new US Administration. They should next week change their tone and priorities, and seek to create more common cause and joint action with Washington.

They should abandon the costly and dangerous draft deal with Mauritius. They should tell the US their naval base will stay safe in our hands. They at the same time save UK taxpayers billions.

They should agree with President Trump that it is time to negotiate a peace in Ukraine. The Uk and EU do not have the money, military resource or will to replace the US in supporting the Ukraine war. The UK should be as keen on peace  there as President Trump instead of appearing to disagree and to prolong the  war and increase the deaths. Of course the UK and US must be strong for Ukraine to improve the terms.

The UK should back increasing NATO spending on defence and confirm its own increase to 2.5%. The UK should tell the President in private why 5% is not realistic.

Instead of threatening President Trump with the EU over trade, the UK should present the US with a draft Trade Treaty improving  mutual access and lower tariffs. The UK is well placed to avoid general US tariffs and to sidestep a possible EU/US trade war, as long as it shows it is willing to work with the new Administration.

 

Conservatives invented the triple lock and made it their policy in the 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2024 elections. I supported the idea, as the starting basic pension was low. As people were paying in for their pension  a percentage of their earnings it seemed fair they could receive  a pension based on growth in earnings,which was likely most of the time to give the higher uprating.

Labour were forced to match the triple lock pledge and did so in 2024.  The triple lock should therefore be safe until the next election. I expect all the main parties to pledge it again then. I did not read Kemi Badenoch’s remarks as meaning she had any wish or plan to remove it. She spoke about means testing pensioner fuel support,implying she would not restore fir very wealthy people whilst probably restoring it for most of the others that have lost it.

The obvious much delayed change government should make to pensions to tackle the rising bills is to remove the option of a very expensive index linked pension for the civil service for all new entrants and to consider reducing or limiting future contributions and accruals for existing members. I tried to get George Osborne to do this  in 2010. instead billions more liability has been heaped up with hundreds of thousands of new recruits and with fast inflation.

I am all in favour of human rights. I am also much in favour of democracy. That is why I favour a sovereign Parliament that legislates  for our human rights. We need to be able to change laws when they cease to please or backfire.

The PM believes there is some superior law called international law which embodies some superior morality. It is leading him to make bad judgements based on poor interpretations of this international law. It has led him to assert the ICJ can make us give the Chagos islands away. He seems unaware that the Uk exempted  issues between itself and Commonwealth  countries from the court’s jurisdiction. He also fell for the sloppy arguments as to why Chagos should be given to Mauritius, 1200 miles away and never an owner of Chagos.

Wrongly interpreting a non binding advisory opinion as good law he has negotiated to give the islands away, destabilising a crucial US naval base in the Indian Ocean in a needless way. He is being forced into offering large sums to lease  it back.

In his stated wish to smash the criminal gangs brining in too many illegals there is no stated wish to deport illegals arriving here with criminal records, and no moves to legislate in the UK to assert our right to do so. He seems to accept the creeping jurisdiction of the ECHR extending a right to family defence to people who have entered illegally and committed serious offences.

He is PM, not an international lawyer. The UK needs to use our Parliament to pass laws that meet the needs of UK people. When the ECHR told a past government to give votes to prisoners, Parliament said No. We do did not have to leave the ECHR family as a democratic body made a perfectly reasonable decision. We need to do more of that.

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The government is going to launch sector strategies as part of its Industrial plan.

We can write some of them easily. The oil and gas one will say close the whole industry down more quickly. So will the petrol and diesel car one. The net zero mandate requires the closure of many high energy using factories and activities to be replaced by imports. None of these will help growth.

The government claims it will expand housebuilding by 50%. How? They have put mortgage rates up  by losing the confidence of markets. They are driving private landlords out of the market with extra taxes and regulations. They do not have the money for a major expansion of social housing. They think more planning permissions will do the job,  mindless that there are a million plots with permissions sitting there.

The government could set out a bold strategy to boost   industry. It would need major changes of energy and tax policy. We need much more energy from home sources at much lower prices. Getting more of our own gas out of the ground is the easiest way to do this. Adding more renewables needs to be done at lower prices for their power and with a cheap solution to the problem of intermittency which is not obvious.

Corporation tax should be taken down to 15%, where revenues would go up. The Treasury ia likely to stay wedded to the idea that higher rates are necessary. It will continue to look at Ireland, awash with  business tax revenue and digital company investment thanks to a lower tax rate and do the opposite.

I will look at the prospects for some of individual sectors in future blogs.

 

 

I will be giving a lecture on How to get faster UK growth on Friday 24 th January at All Souls  College Oxford at 11 a.m. This is free to those interested. The All Souls College website is www.all-soulscollege@ox.uk  and will contain mire details nearer the event.

 

There is no doubting the ambition of the PM’s launch of more growth in and through AI. He urges public and private sectors to greatly expand their computing capacities, and to  use the extra for a wide range of new applications. He sets out a vision of many more datacentres. He expects AI to  improve healthcare diagnosis, tighten up on tax avoidance and boost GDP.

The paper the officials wrote is long on enthusiasm and on how important much more computing is. It is short on practical policies to bring it about. Here are some thoughts on what the government will need to ask itself to make some of this reality.

The paper envisages a bigger role for the public sector, with government putting in more of the investment and adopting more of the benefits. There is no mention of how much extra money will be available for this. They revive the  idea of supercomputers after cancelling the Bristol one the previous government backed. Where will the hew one be and how much will it cost?

When it comes to the private  sector they will find the US giants of AI and the digital world are central to success. Why not take our corporation tax rate down to Ireland’s to tempt more of the US digital investment in future here? Ireland gas attracted so much with a tax rate half ours.

The strategy needs plenty of datacentres  which need plenty of cheap electricity. Will the government adopt some of the ideas around for more and cheaper energy?