The people who churn out the latest absurd version of Project Fear are stuck in a time warp. They think that if we leave and go to the WTO model our borders will immediately  be congested with lorry drivers in queues waiting for a staff member at the border to carry out an inspection and calculate the tax there.
In the modern world most of the work is done away from the border by computer exchanges. Our border with the rest of the EU is already in their terms a complex border. Goods passing need to be charged to VAT, Excise needs to be levied on various items, the currency changes, and various UK domestic rules on health, safety and migrants have to imposed . In the case of the majority of imports coming in from outside the EU there are also tariffs to levy.
Most coming across our border comes  on big trucks organised by approved traders. The tax is sorted out from the electronic manifest away from the frontier. Any checks on products are carried out at the originating factory, and subject to inspection and  spot checks there. Any additional requirements as we switch from EU to WTO can be done in the same way.
So what exactly is the problem? All imports will be under our control to deal with at our borders. We have no need to put in queues and special border checks. Those who say the EU will impose some  version of the Napoleonic blockade on us when we leave also live in an imaginary  world. It is strange the people who most love the EU  expect it to try to  start an economic war. They do not understand that even in the unlikely event they wanted to under international law and WTO rules that would not be possible. How would the EU seek to prevent a French cheese maker or a German car maker sending product to the UK? And how would that be legal?
August 16, 2018
This should be correct but are we certain that May, Hammond and the civil service have not delayed the computer systems and issue of forms etc in order to deliberately make WTO impossible on 29.319. They should not be trusted in any way, given their previous record of deceit.
August 16, 2018
Stred, It cannot be repeated too often that Theresa May is a proven liar. That sounds harsh, but it is the truth. I used to think she was merely incompetent and a Remain.
The reality is Mrs May must have authorised the second (Robbins) White Paper as well as the original DExEU WP. She is the PM. Then she withheld that information from the country and even her own Ministers. So when the Cabinet discussed Brexit in the months prior to Chequers, Mrs May must have lied about the – at the time – forthcoming WP.
That is separate to her lies about the content of the Robbins WP where she claims we are leaving the EU. Just reading the Robbins WP executive summary demolishes that.
August 16, 2018
May is going to a meeting with European leaders (30Sept) 10 days before Conference opens, when she hopes to get agreement on Chequers. Tory Brexiter MPs are leaving things far too late if they really want to represent constituents/grassroot conservatives/Leavers and stop Chequers. Boris talking at a fringe meeting at Conference may well provoke fury, but May and her team will, I believe, steamroll over them, having already gained “consent” from Brussels for Chequers + further concessions (note, the UK people’s views do not seem to matter).
Reply Any Chequers type deal needs primary legislation. She will not carry a large number of Conservative MPs if she tried a deal like that.
August 16, 2018
Stewart Jackson has said that Mrs May repeatedly blocked David Davis & DexEU from planning for a no deal Brexit.
However the one Chequers silver lining was Cabinet deciding to ‘step up’ making proper preparations for the WTO global trading option. So, hopefully, Whitehall is now properly preparing as directed by Cabinet.
August 16, 2018
Apparently HMRC CDS roll-out has started: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/launch-of-the-customs-declaration-service-begins ;and is very much on track according to NAO: https://order-order.com/2018/06/29/national-audit-office-says-hmrc-set-ready-no-deal/
The phased rollout of CDS was scheduled to start in August 2018: https://www.governmentcomputing.com/central-government/news/hmrc-announced-phased-launch-to-cds-starting-in-august-2018
“HM Revenue and Customs has announced its intention to begin a phased launch of the Customs Declaration Service (CDS) in August 2018.
CDS will replace the existing Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight (CHIEF) system, with all declarations taking place on CDS from early 2019.
CDS is one of 15 major programmes in HMRCâs wider transformation portfolio…”
August 16, 2018
Certainly they are not to be trusted one thou. Brexit means nothing May has surely proved herself to be totally beneath contempt with her duplicity and attacks on free speech.
Why has radio 4âs PM news programme been turned into nearly a full hour of Aretha Franklin? I have nothing against her, but surely a mention of her death and a clip of one of her hits would be sufficient. Why do we have such complete idiots running the BBC with their idiotic political agenda. Newsnight is almost unwatchable now too.
August 16, 2018
You write: “In the modern world most of the work is done away from the border …. ” Correct. Most. But not all. Between EU member states there are zero checks on goods at borders. At a border between the EU and a third country there are checks. There are checks between the EU and Switzerland, checks between Norway and Sweden, and there will be checks between Dover/ Calais after Brexit, and at the border in Ireland. You yourself confess that “most” work is done away from the border – so you accept that some work is done at the border. How much? Quantify it. How many vehicles? How long will the checks take? What will be the cost to just-in-time supply chains which, right now, have zero checks to worry about? How about perishable fresh food? What will be the costs of employing vast numbers of customs officials? Where will you build all the new border inspection posts? I would like some answers in detail, otherwise I will think this is just so much hot air from you
Reply OUr imports are within our own control and we will decide what we need at our border and can put in capacity to handle it as we do today for non EU goods coming in.
August 16, 2018
c. 99% of Switzerland -EU trade is not subject to checks – same proportion as UK-non EU trade coming through ports such as Felixstowe as it happens. Nor are there ‘no’ checks when crossing EU borders, there are occasional spot checks when thought needed. Has Project Fear – the global recession, the third world war, millions of job losses, collapse of investment in the UK etc etc – come down to ‘there might be a few extra checks at the border perhaps causing delays of some minutes’!? If so I think we can relax.
August 16, 2018
Today we aren’t very good at intercepting undocumented migrants and neither have we shown any inclination to improve in this area. We have also been unable to control net immigration, despite this being a key government pledge.
August 16, 2018
I donât understand your reply, Mr Redwood. NonEU goods are not imported on a justintime basis. Ask Nissan!
Reply Some are
August 16, 2018
Fiona in Matlock, Where do you get the notion that no goods from the RoW are imported on a JIT basis? Sources, please.
August 16, 2018
Fiona in Matlock,
Yes the chance to build up local supply chains for the car industry is an excellent opportunity together with the associated robustness and environmental advantages. On the downside some companies might be cut out of EU supply chains, so shift will l have to happen. The problem is the government has increased uncertainty so businesses and supply chains do not know the extent of change needed. If the government had just delivered Brexi then 2 years in a more certain environment would have been available to businesses.
August 16, 2018
Honda UK imports parts for the civic from Japan.
The jit parts are held in central warehouses and drawn down as required.
Do you really think that Renault parts for Nissan are shipped over the channel on a daily basis. I live about 5 miles from Fiona and my brother in law owns a transport company that delivers to Nissan and Toyota.
August 16, 2018
But what about our exports? I haven’t heard about new border inspection ports being built in the EU to carry out the increased workload of border checks on UK goods when we become a third country.
August 16, 2018
Henry
You are wrong in saying there are zero checks on goods at borders inside the EU.
Customs officers do random checks.
August 16, 2018
Henry
Just as the present legal position has been arranged to avoid the need for routine checks on UK exports as they enter the rest of the EU now, while the UK is still in the EU, so too the law could be arranged differently but to the same practical end that there should still be no perceived need for routine checks on UK exports as they enter the EU even after the UK itself has left the EU.
It just takes a little imagination to devise an alternative legal solution, of which the most obvious is that the UK passes a new law to prohibit the export from the UK to the EU of anything which the EU deems illicit.
As far as I know the UK government is not in the habit of casually turning a blind eye to any harm which its citizens may be doing to other friendly countries – that is entirely different during wartime, of course – and if the EU told us that it did not want X to enter its Single Market then I imagine our government would take that on board and institute whatever steps it could to prevent the export of X from the UK to the EU, even if X was not prohibited within the UK.
Whether the EU authorities would reciprocate and not allow rubbish to be thrown over the fence into the UK garden is another matter, but I assume that if the UK government asked them directly they would aver that there would be no rubbish available on their side for anybody to throw over the fence into the UK, everything on their side would fully comply with their marvellous EU rules.
This is the “parallel marketability” model I have mentioned before, for example here in May:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/17/the-business-of-england/#comment-935515
A workable alternative to the “Single Market” model of which the UK government is perfectly well aware, even while it lies through its teeth by telling the UK public that there is no alternative to its stupid and unworkable Chequers plan, just as it lies through its teeth about the damage to the UK economy which would be caused if we reverted to trading with the EU on WTO terms.
August 16, 2018
Denis, what you suggest is illegal under the WTO. The EU is not allowed to treat the UK better than other third countries
August 16, 2018
I suggest you have a look at Article 7.4 of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, as mentioned in the letter I’ve copied here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/16/how-modern-borders-work/#comment-955037
assuming that JR publishes it.
The article is here:
https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/tfa-nov14_e.htm#art7
And now you tell me precisely which other part of the WTO treaties would make it illegal, chapter and verse.
August 16, 2018
Remember that free movement of people applies to the Liechtenstein / EEA / EU âparallel marketabilityâAgreement. It does have have an Article 112 / 113 EEA “Sectoral Adaptation” to strictly control immigration; but only because, (a) the place is less than half the size of the Isle of Wight, (b) at 37,000, has a quarter of the Isle of White’s population, (c) nearly 40% of its population already are non-national residents, compared to 13% in the UK.
It was only because the Swiss referendum turned down EU membership, that little Liechtenstein found itself up s**t creek without a paddle. This ain’t no model for the UK and they have told the UK such previously.
August 16, 2018
After we leave the EU, cut flowers from Kenya will become a distant memory just like those public displays of ‘Merry Christmas’ before the globalists started trashing our culture; nor should you expect that those cut flowers that come via Amsterdam which the Dutch pass off as their own produce will continue to arrive. Don’t worry however, the British are at their best when they are forced extemporise: go out into the countryside and pick a posy of cornflowers or a punnet of blackberries instead of mourning the unavailability of South African oranges or Chilean apples. We will survive: let the Brussels regime do its worst.
August 16, 2018
Not sure where you are coming from there…?
Surely, South African oranges will no longer have the EU Customs Union tariff on them, along with a whole basket of other imports from that part of the world.
August 16, 2018
Forthurst :
Project Fear again !
Why should products from non-EU countries disappear from our shops after we leave ?
There is no logical reason for this to happen.
August 16, 2018
I think his problem is many non EU imports are transhiped via the continent where the tariffs are paid.
Holland then passes the flowers over as Dutch.
When We are out we can import directly without the tariffs or middle man mark up.
August 16, 2018
Henry Spark, You do not seem to understand what JIT is. It is more than eliminating warehousing and cutting the cost of inventory. A prime technique is for the buyer to put the onus of compliance onto the supplier. The whole atmosphere of your comment is authoritarian and statist, operating under the false belief that the “UK” sells to the “EU”. Not so, it is B2B. And the businesses ensure compliance.
However, I must disagree with JR. Since the government keeps changing what Brexit means, businesses have to keep changing their plans. In fact most large businesses have multiple options planned as they wait for government to sort itself out. The government lacks realism because it lacks determination to see Brexit succeed. That has a knock-on effect on business.
Hopefully there will be no trade deal with the EU, so we will trade using the comprehensive WTO system. That means using the same procedures with European countries as we use for trade with the RoW already. That applies to perishable items like food which we get from the RoW just as much as anything else. None of this is therefore novel or “cliff edge”, but it will need more of the existing resources.
August 16, 2018
Henry Spark
More unintelligible ignorance from you .
Here is what HMRC say
~ 94% of goods cleared in 5 secs
> 96% of the rest cleared < 2 hrs
~ 3% of imports (from outside the EU) are subject to documentary checks prior to clearance
Why give opinions on things you know nothing about ?
Go away and Google TIR, Then CHIEF ( and its replacement CDS in 2019)
Remainers want us to stay in the EU because because because trade, but know absolutely nothing about how trade works
August 16, 2018
Good morning
Sorry, off topic.
This is not intended as a criticism of our kind host or anyone here but, I have observed, even from Conservative Party members and voters openly questioning the honesty and suitability of our PM, Teresa May MP. I would like to point out, that our kind host has on many occasions here stated that comments, even against the deceased, will be moderated. So what has changed ? An interesting question that I will leave others to answer.
—
If illegals can enter the UK on the back of a truck, then what else ? Perhaps we need to spend more checking every truck entering the UK at Calais.
Reply I have always allowed latitude on criticisms of Ministers acting as Ministers. It’s personal abuse and personal allegations I do not allow as they may be wrong and could be damaging to the poster if challenged.I give the same protection to Mr Corbyn as to Mrs May re personal allegations. I allow “Politician x has misled about this political/government issue” (though I often do not agree with the criticism) but do not allow ” Politician X misled the tax authorities and swindled them out of money”
August 16, 2018
Her honesty and suitability to be PM.
It is surely very clear indeed (from her own actions, policies and statements) to all sensible Conservative supporters and members that she is very clearly dishonest and totally unsuitable. She is also a huge electoral liability, even against Corbyn. This alone makes her unsuitable.
August 16, 2018
That’s too clear, concise and simple for the likes of Andy to take in John. Couldn’t you complicate it a bit more?
August 16, 2018
It’s also wrong. JR’s posts have to be dumbed down to attract a typical Brexiter audience that mostly won’t know enough to contradict him.
August 16, 2018
Acorn. That’s strange because a lot of people who already export all over the world tend to agree with John. We have had plenty of people saying John is correct when they already deal with exports themselves. Perhaps you could be a typical Remainer. Someone who doesn’t want to be educated in the ways of the world.
August 16, 2018
Well use your self proclaimed superior knowledge to inform us all acorn.
August 16, 2018
Acorn, Oooohhh, next you’ll be saying we are thick, uneducated, waycist, swivel-eyed, flat-earther, knuckle-dragging, xenophobes; and your intellectual case will be revealed to all.
August 16, 2018
acorn lays the seed of doubt with impudent puerile insults, pitiful and rather sad….again!
August 16, 2018
acorn
Your ultimate point, as outlined by Remainers is in effect we will starve to death.
Of course you will have made detailed plans by now to flit to France?
But you haven’t have you.
#You have not scanned estate agents for rented or For Sale properties.
#You have not looked for employment in France.
# You have not bought a cheap teach-yourself French book.
#You have not converted your savings to Euros.
Anyone would think you intend to continue living in the UK….and moan to your final demise.
August 18, 2018
Talk about the Pot calling the Kettle black. This site hurls insults at Mrs May,the Civil Service, climate change believers and itself believes the WTO is the one true God of the Brexit State religion!
Other than that, I have all the above covered except I have had no need to seek paid employment for the last twenty years !
August 16, 2018
How insulting and arrogant !
All too typical of supposedly intelligent Remainers.
August 16, 2018
Lucky you’re here to provide your expert commentary!
August 16, 2018
Fiona in Matlock
I import goods from non EU on a JIT basis
I doubt you even know what it is or how just in time works
August 20, 2018
acorn
Thanks mate, sorted the difference between South Korea and France yet?
As you haven’t worked for 20 years by your own admission I think we can safely write what you know about modern trade on the back of a postage stamp and still have room for your knowledge about French shipbuilding
August 16, 2018
Unfortunately I do not see this view promoted to the wider public. The ERG needs a punchy press/Twitter/faceboook release on this and other key topics demolishing the key pillars of Chequers on an ongoing basis.
No doubt it will feature in the alternative strategy you are said to be working on but detail like this is too important to risk being âmissedâ or deliberately ignored by headline writers or opponents who will be seeking to âfogâ or dissemble.
Reply The ERG and other like minded Conservative MPs have given large amounts of advice and many briefings to Ministers on the WTO option and the Free Trade option. Doubtless we will give more. There has been no lack of written material, research and effort on these viable options.
August 16, 2018
Reply-Reply
Pleased to hear at least you have had a chance to brief Ministers on occasion.
Pray tell me what is the response to your outlines, do they question the argument, is it a two way conversation or do they just listen, say nothing, and walk away to do their own thing.
Would be nice to know their arguments against the WTO option, because they have said little in public.
Reply They say they are well advanced with preparations for a WTO exit, though they add that government policy wants a deal.
August 16, 2018
Peter Lilley is spot on in his article about WTO terms and a deal.
August 16, 2018
Peter Lilley are usually spot on. I think he did NatSci (and economics) at Cambridge which perhaps partly explains it.
August 16, 2018
A good question and still no clear response. Although they may be preparing for a no deal, why is it a fall back?
It seems the reality is the governmentâs prime objective is based on the âabsurd fearâ etc set out in our hosts first line and OK it is good to hear these briefings are being made but ignored, why?
Why are Soubry etc allowed to take the âchaosâ if no deal line, unchallenged?
I still maintain that this information is not pushed hard enough âoutside the bubbleâ
August 16, 2018
I’d go along with that Nig. It frustrates me why our side misses so many open goals. I know in many cases, Brexiteers are under-represented as in the selection of the panel on BBC’s Question Time programme, but I am sure better more productive use can be made of what time we are afforded. I take my hat off to the ones who are prepared to roll their sleeves up and get stuck in.
Tad
August 16, 2018
Nig 1 – the media cannot be forced to publish information.
It also suits the majority of the media to maintain an atmosphere of chaos, catastrophe and crisis, whatever the issue, as melodramatic headlines attract customers, and more customers mean more income from advertisers.
August 16, 2018
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1003961/brexit-news-second-eu-referendum-survey-alistair-burt-andrew-bridgen
Project fear still going strong, when will these politicians get it into there heads we donât want another referendum or peopleâs vote, we had one get us out and not the best of three , I for one donât trust any one in power but if you donât get us out the 80âs riots and poll tax riots will seem like a walk in a park, plus youâll all be put out of your cussy jobs
August 16, 2018
Mick, The Remains’ purpose is to agitate for a rigged “second” referendum, where all questions lead to Remain in one form or another. They may even rig the actual votes as well.
August 16, 2018
Depose May or cease moaning. If she remains we remain. That is the truth of the matter
August 16, 2018
Duncan – Donât be so sure. No one knows how this autumnâs Parliamentary votes will go. How many Conservatives will vote down Mrs Mayâs proposals? How many Labour MPs will support them? How will they be modified by Mrs May herself in the light of Whipsâ advice? What last-minute concessions will the EU make? Right now these are all deep, deep secrets.
If thereâs no majority for any positive proposal the default will kick in. At present that is WTO but my info (government source but not bombproof) is that even now HMG is trying to move the goalposts.
One thing is certain. This epic constitutional battle will be fought to the last bullet and the last man standing.
August 16, 2018
Eeyore, It would be interesting to know where you government source thinks the goalposts are being moved from, and to.
August 16, 2018
It is essentially a battle between the people and the establishment, so I very much go along with your analogy eeyore.
They gave us the power to decide, but they did not expect, nor did they like the answer we gave them in return. And the bulk of them have been trying to shift Heaven and Earth ever since to overturn it.
I cringe every time I hear remainers say they respect the decision of the people. Like hell they do! These are just weasel words from those who see nothing wrong with trying to con the people at every opportunity. And the subterfuge permeates every level including the civil service. I’d like to see the whole damned system taken apart and steam-cleaned to get rid of the infestation.
Tad
August 16, 2018
The real question is how long will the Conservative party continue to tolerate Mrs May as it’s leader? The longer she is leader, and PM, the more damage she will cause both politically and economically.
August 16, 2018
“So what exactly is the problem?”
Politics is about power.
Mr Redwood, you assume that the EU is going to sit back and allow the UK to dictate what we would like to them. This is not going to happen.
They insist that the Single Market (their words) is – well – single. It is run by them, checked by them, directed by them, governed by them, adjudicated by them, changed by them.
Not you. Not Mrs May. Not even – gasp – Olly.
Which means that “third countries” are not in their system. Because, simply, they are not governed by the EU: not part of the Single Market (aka EU/EEA).
Which means that the Advice to Stakeholders (have you actually read it yet?) and all M. Barnier’s little warnings are going to come true at midnight (European time, not ours) on 29-30th March next spring.
The computers will simply be turned off.
Reply NO they wont. Contracts will be honoured and trade will continue. Are you seriously suggesting all those tickets to fly to London that continental airlines are selling for dates after 29 March will be dishonoured leading to huge legal claims? I don’t think so.
August 16, 2018
Mike
Does any EU country sell goods or food imported from outside the EU ?
Given China, the USA, and whole host of other Non EU Countries goods are for sale within the EU, you have the answer.
August 16, 2018
Indeed. But they don’t have to comply with the EU rule book for goods, agriculture crops, manufactured or grown in their own territory or exported elsewhere in the world! They don’t want to be closely aligned and noncompetitive like May wants. They are not under tyhe control of the ECJ without a say! She is foolish and not fit to hold office.
August 16, 2018
Apparently even the EU is not being that stupid:
https://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/eu-preparing-contingency-plans-to-keep-trade-with-uk-open-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit/
“European Commission officials have been preparing contingency plans that would allow the EU to take unilateral measures to keep trade with the UK open in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Times reported earlier this week. According to the paper, the unilateral measures could include maintaining certain regulatory permissions, such as safety certificates for airlines, as well as applying new customs tariffs based on estimates of the volume of trade with the UK. However, these are expected to be temporary measures to avoid immediate damage to trade, and to keep aircrafts moving, after the UKâs withdrawal.”
August 16, 2018
Reply to reply..why not..we see ryanair pilots striking and tens of thousands of passengers inconvenienced..why not on 29 march 2019..have we got some kind of immunisation or magic?
August 16, 2018
JR, on this thread you pose the question “So what exactly is the problem?”, but you have not published my comment on the last thread which started: “The problem is … ”
Perhaps it will be quickest and easiest if I just repeat it:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/15/the-reasons-the-pm-gives-to-surrender-our-powers-of-self-government-again-over-the-supply-of-goods/#comment-954709
“The problem is that the EU would no longer have any legal guarantee that UK exports would comply with their regulations. At present the EU and its other member states have a sufficient legal guarantee because the UK has passed and effectively enforces domestic laws to implement the relevant EU rules. In the absence of any such legal guarantee the EU would have to reinstate routine interception and inspection of UK goods at the border, not because of any external requirement, those famous âWTO rulesâ which get mentioned in vague terms but never specified, but in order to protect the integrity of its Single Market. That is why I would propose to continue to save them the trouble of checking our goods exports at the border, and also at the same time save our exporters the trouble of increased delays, by offering a new legal guarantee to replace the present legal guarantee, but a legal guarantee of conformity applying only to exports to the EU rather than to all goods within the UK as now. Of course it is possible that the EU would throw the offer back in our faces, saying for example that our law to control exports to the EU would not be good enough unless its operation was controlled by their court, and perhaps even agreeing with one europhilic contributor here that the UK is just about the least reliable country in the world. However we would have done our best to help them, and if they still decided to be stupid and/or spiteful then the blame for any trade disruption could be pinned on them.”
Likewise another comment, mainly about the minimal value of CETA, starting:
“Well, exporters from countries which are not members of the EEA rely on the authorities of the EEA countries to operate checks at the points of entry to make sure as far as may be feasible that their exports comply with all EU requirements … “
August 16, 2018
My new Chinese phone charger has a leaflet with it confirming that it complies with EC no….., as certified by an inspector in Holland. This is from a non-EU country and millions of these are shipped every week. Presumably, any manufacturer already in the EU has to have its product certified too and have an EC number.
But M.Barnier is apparently worried that a car made in the UK may have some of its value tied up in IT design for the engine computer and that because design is ‘services’ they may be unfairly advantaged if the UK allows services to be less regulated than for a French designer and this makes the car cheaper.
Why don’t we just tell them that if they behave like silly buggers, we will too and that we will buy fewer Citroens. By the way, my new Citroen mini is really a Toyota with a Citroen badge.
August 16, 2018
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1004089/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Michel-Barnier-document-secret-Theresa-May-White-Paper-Chequers-plan
August 16, 2018
Stred, If you’re talking about the C1/Aygo, it is a joint development between PSA (Citroen parent) and Toyota. They’re built in the Czech republic with mainly European sourced components. So not a Toyota with a Citroen badge. Sorreeeee . . .
August 16, 2018
There is no problem – but it is a useful weapon against a genuine Brexit so it gets repeated. The same applies to the notion that large numbers of people who voted Leave are now in favour of bRemain.
I am more interested in the politics of how it will all pan out.
I see all the claims in the media and on the internet(much of it click bait) but with no inside knowledge it seems there could be a number of outcomes. May is fully exposed as deceitful and duplicitous, so it would be no surprise if she tried to pull another stroke at the last minute, but I do not know what that might be.
Anyone care to speculate on what might happen in September and October?
August 16, 2018
Peter, You are right, I detect no inclination by Leave voters to change to Remain. If anything it is the reverse: attitudes have hardened in the face of Remain whining and EU intransigence.
How it will pan out is not obvious. Both main leaders – May and Corbyn – are damaged beyond repair. Remain has a majority in Parliament. So I tend to think we’ll get Mrs May’s (Robbins) revolving Remain sold to us as “the best deal we can manage” even as they lie it is Brexit. If that happens we will be in for a decade of constitutional turmoil, and we will lose the advantages of being independent that Leave would give us.
August 16, 2018
Well, the editor of the Maidenhead Advertiser has been kind enough to publish the last letter that I sent in, more or less unchanged, including the rather inflammatory reference to “the continuing covert eurofederalism of the Tory party leadership”:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/12/what-can-a-leave-voter-do-to-expedite-our-departure-from-the-eu/#comment-954180
Under the heading “Government aiding irrational Brexit fears”.
August 16, 2018
Yes, it’s odd given the context of May’s Lancaster House speech that she lets this borders myth persist. She should come out against it with all guns blazing, but maybe she’s armed with water pistols and can only deliver a damp squib.
Tad
August 16, 2018
Indeed it all sounds like a lot of rubbish. A notable and heartening thing though is that, whereas during and for some time after the referendum, we heard about hundreds of thousands of people potentially losing their jobs and the collapse of investment in the U.K., these days Project Fear mainly consists of saying there might be delays at the borders. Of course the Govt should be able to guarantee there will be none on imports -so letâs relax about the feared shortage of drugs and sandwich lettuces – and hopefully we will move to unilateral free trade as suggested by Prof Minford et al so as to give an immediate income boost especially to low income households. It does seem increasingly untenable to suggest there should be any delay on exports.
We look forward to the alternative to Chequers which we hear you and Peter Lilley are drafting. I hope you are giving consideration to unilateral free trade?!
August 16, 2018
I am a Brexiteer who has always thought the French will attempt to harm us when we leave; I anticipate Calais will be closed, by a fisherman’s strike, and Eurotunnel will be down for ‘maintenance’. There are already signs the French passport officers are taking extra care to check the papers of visitors. All this will be aimed at creating a temporary flap with the objective of extracting further concessions from us. We will need to stand firm, face it down and recognise that after a short while the Spanish orange growers will get fed up with their fruit rotting in trucks in Calais.
What they really fear is that we will become a successful competitor, that is within our reach and should be our aim.
August 16, 2018
David Cockburn.. Not exactly.. what the hard brexiteers thought they would get is a cherry picking deal full of bespoke arrangements especially drawn up for them by DD…Liam Fox said as much when he said it should be the easiest FTA deal ever..or words to that effect. IDS rushed to say..do you seriously think the german car workers..etc etc..M Gove said the same about the French wine producers
We know that some thought the UK could be set up as a successful competitor to the EU with all of the benefits but none of the costs, ie. a free trade deal on our own terms, with no migration- no ECJ, otherwise a new economic bloc with UK at the head of a table with disaffected ex Eu members..but it hasn’t quite worked out like that and neither will it work out like that because after march 29 next we’ll be on our own, free to paddle our own canoe, and after taking back all of this brexit illusionary control..yes..but at what cost?
August 16, 2018
EU fanatics believe as a country we are incapable of managing our own affairs. This is reinforced by May and the traitorous civil service and her common rule book nonesense.
I see the EU thinks talks are being bugged. As David Davies says, we have plenty of friends willing to keep us informed.
Problem seekers will always find a problem. Real or perceived.
August 16, 2018
I like the EU, and I donât think weâre incapable of running our own affairs. Indeed, we already do run our own affairs – though, obviously the current government does not do it very well.
The NHS, schools, transport, housing, defence, foreign policy, immigration policy – all run by us.
But, unlike you, I have no qualms with us cooperating where it makes sense. Security, the environment, trade, product regulation – all sensible areas to work together. Why are Little Englanders so scared of working with foreigners when it makes sense?
August 17, 2018
Co operation and working together….sounds more like the Common Market
That’s where we came in.
Shame we can’t return to it.
August 16, 2018
Can anyone enlighten me: what is the ratio of imported/exported goods transported by lorries to those transported by container? (I do appreciate that perishables are sent by road transport).
August 16, 2018
Let’s imagine for a moment that the rosy view of future trade not just with the EU is misplaced, and there are those who would wish to divert products elsewhere, we are vulnerable through the complacent view promoted for years that we don’t need a merchant fleet. That we can always rely on others as they love us so much.
And as for shipping as a business, if others could do it why didn’t we? They took over where we left off. Complacency again and arrogance. We are far too superior to remain involved in such a thing. After all we think the world is there to serve us don’t we?
August 16, 2018
There is a large merchant fleet flying the Red Ensign: Bermuda, Isle of Man, etc. What is your point?
August 16, 2018
Simon Wilson writes in ‘Money Week’, 11-8-2018:
‘Some hardline Brexiteers argue that the UK should just keep its borders open, without customs controls or tariffs. But thatâs a non-starter, because the WTOâs âmost favoured nationâ rule â ie, the rule that WTO members must treat all other members equally â means that the EU would not legally be able to reciprocate. Britain would rapidly discover that âunilateralâ free trade is a fast way of destroying its farming and manufacturing sectors. Yet even a brief period in which Britainâs borders were closed to imports would rapidly become a national crisis. Thatâs because imports and exports account for more than 60% of GDP (twice the level of the US, for example) and we get half our food from abroad â the bulk of it via EU ports. Meanwhile, the UK would fall out of pan-EU regulatory bodies on air safety, medicines, nuclear materials, vehicle safety and food â with no time to create regulations of its own that other countries would recognise.
This isnât âProject Fear Mark IIâ â itâs a real prospect that must be avoided
Reply This is a complete misreading of how WTO works. The UK will have a good range of options on tariffs and checks at borders once we have left.
August 16, 2018
Martin. We have transposed EU legislation into UK law so why the day after we have left will we fall fowl of all EU regs.
There are 150 plus countries not in the EU but successfully trade with them and their planes land at EU airports.
Why is it always discussed as a one way street. If UK planes are forbidden to land within the EU surely EU planes would be banned from UK airports.
EU trade doesn’t make up anything like 60% of GDP and we could probably source food cheaper outside the EU.
Your comments highlight just what a protectionist block the EU is.
August 16, 2018
Non- EU countries such as Switzerland and Israel are members of Euratom. Is there any reason why the UK could not submit a preliminary application to re-join on 30.4.19? Or is this another problem for the Remainers to create. Medicines, air and vehicle safety will be run as before we leave and the Act has been passed putting this into law. Food will need an EU certificate, as at present.
The Cliff Edge industry must be our fastest growing at the moment.
August 16, 2018
The only people I have heard talking about a blockade are Brexiteers. Marcus Fysh an extreme Brexit backing Tory MP started talking about one during a Newsnight interview where the other guest had expressed concerns about border delays.
Tell us, Mr Redwood, as an MP who is very keen on Brexit how many fact finding missions have you been on to our borders since 23 June 2016? Have you spoken, in person, to the people who run Dover? Or visited the hauliers who take hundreds of lorries across the Channel? Or to officials at Heathrow? Or to farmers whose land straddles the Irish border – meaning, if Dr Fox gets his wish, a cow on the UK side of the field can be treated with less care than the one on the EU side? How many such visits have you undertaken?
August 16, 2018
Why do remain supporters like you fixate on Dover?
There are dozens of ports in the UK.
Most like Felixstowe are bigger.
If France were to play up we can transfer goods via Harwich for example, to go to non French ports.
August 16, 2018
Andy, Hold on there. I seem to remember you talking about the UK running out of food because the EU would decide not to send us any. So you were talking about a blockade.
August 16, 2018
@Andy ” a cow on the UK side of the field can be treated with less care than the one on the EU side” Yes Andy, British farmers regularly flog their money cows to death. Actually, you do seem to be countryfied in a sense.
August 16, 2018
Exactly. It is true that the EU could use disruption at borders as a weapon to try to damage the UK but it is not in their interests to do so. They can damage the UK far less after a real Brexit than when we are in the EU or with May’s Brexit in name only sick joke.
August 16, 2018
What you say is technically correct, but it does not allow for the attitude of various EU members. During the last couple of days we have seen disruption at the Gibraltar border with Spain. Supposedly organised by relatives of the Guardia Civil and other custodians of the law. Rest assured , such does not happen without the connivance of government , either local or national. The southwest corner of Andalucia is very dependent on work provided by Gibraltar. A positive UK government, not a May government, would make it clear to Spain that they are potential losers big time if they choose to interfere with Gibraltar. Think of all the Spanish produce that could rot in lorries were we to do the same. The same can be said for any French disruptive action. It is very vulnerable. Obviously we want a grown up attitude to our leaving the EU, but on past performance it is not guaranteed from some members of the EU.
August 16, 2018
Spain has been closing and disrupting the Gibraltar border for at least 60 years.
There are thousands of Spaniards drawing pensions and employed by Gibraltar. If the government insisted all payments were made in Gibraltar the border would magically stay open.
August 16, 2018
The pointis the reverse. We should have the right to reject German cars, French cheese, Dutch eggs or Italian cement if we think either of these is harmful to us, or they don’t meet our regulatory requirements.
August 16, 2018
Who is financing the nonsense promulgated by Project Fear? The latest scaremongering is coming from the doctor’s union, the BMA:-
“No-deal Brexit will be ‘catastrophe’ for NHS and increase risk from deadly pandemics, BMA warns. Exclusive: Doctors have a duty to set out the harm of crashing out of the EU and this is not scaremongering, union says”
That came from today’s online edition of the Independent. Are we expected to believe this sort of thing? Some well financed organisation must be spending a lot of money getting this sort of crap into our media.
August 16, 2018
Good Morning,
PM and Chequers Plan.
If the Express is correct today, then the entire EU Brexit team were aware of and had had time to study and critique it BEFORE the UK cabinet had even seen it!
How on earth can anybody in the Conservative Party continue to support Mrs May.
August 16, 2018
I know plenty of them who support her Peter, even now after her capitulation and abject failure. More is the pity. Perhaps these pinkos should go elsewhere and call themselves The Toady Party, not the Tory Party!
Tad
August 16, 2018
Peter.
Remember the visit to Mrs Merkel and Macron before Chequers.
The tours around the EU to see many leaders.
Was this to get input, advice, or acceptance.?
If something does not smell right, very often its because its not good for you to consume.
The way David Davis and his whole Department has been sidelined and subsequently stripped of its manpower says it all really.
August 16, 2018
It will have little to do with laws or rules at government level or at WTO board level but all to do with the procedures adopted and the work patterns of the various countries customs and immigration controls in the ports, airports etc. With the change to WTO rules there will be much less harmony and cohesion between these countries concerned and with the inevitable expansion of officialdom numbers which will follow this whole bureaucracy will take on a life of it’s own- we will see a much more aggressive stance with all of this activity. Surely it’s about quality of life and easy movement of people and goods services that is important- but unfortunately in this case, I fear, officialdom and bureaucracy will be the winner – business, trade and travellers will be the loser-
August 16, 2018
In answer to your question “what exactly is the problem?” is that these people (lead by a vocal number from your party) don’t want the UK to leave the EU, won’t respect the result of the referendum and are doing all they can to get their own way, helped in some cases by finance from George Soros and in all cases by the abject duplicity by Mrs May.
August 16, 2018
Who would stop goods leaving EU land?
Would French customs officers at Calais stop French perishable goods leaving France, judging by the record French farmers have I don’t think they would risk it… Unless of course Macron decided to blockade Calais with troops…now that would be interesting.
As has been said many times – there are probably more jobs in the EU (based on our import/export deficit) that rely on exports to the UK than jobs in the UK that rely on Exports to EU land.
So hurt the UK you also hurt the main players in EU land…
August 16, 2018
Whilst I agree with your comments John you still need a hard border structure.
I regularly go through UK Channel and French ports.
Calais is surrounded by doubles rows of very high fences, as are the motorway entrances to the Port from a mile out. The UK has paid millions for these fences to be installed. Armed Police control them, and camera’s abound.
The reason is not goods movement, but people illegally trying to get into the UK.
In many of these ports lorries are searched or go through scanners, before they are allowed on board, and its the same with caravans, even people in cars are counted at passport control.
Have also been held up in the UK at times when entering through Portsmouth and Dover where checks are being carried out.
My point is, to promise no superstructure at borders is simply daft, as you will always need a base or secure place to work from, should the need arise.
Thus we already have a manual checking system in operation, which should not change when we leave.
August 16, 2018
Yet Henry Spark in an earlier post tells us there are “zero checks” of goods passing between EU member nations.
Anyone who sends goods off to Europe or travels around Europe knows this isn’t true.
August 16, 2018
I have just come back from North Germany, as a tourist having used Eurotunnel. Apart when leaving in Folkestone or coming back in Calais, there were no checks going from France to Belgium to the Netherlands to Germany, and back (as it should be within the Schengen area). And there were none for the numerous trucks/lorries either, a lot of them carrying the TIR (Transport International Routier) sign.
As for the UK/France border controls, they were thorough in both directions, with the gate officer checking the passports while other officers were roaming around the cars, with some cars being sent aside (randomly?) for being “swiped for drugs”.
I very much doubt that illegals would try this way to enter the UK.
August 16, 2018
The key word is illegal. Say it loud illegals are here ILLEGALLY. They are illegal now. They will be illegal post Brexit. We already fully control our borders – everyone coming in and goinf our is supposed to be checked – and yet many of you think we have a problem with illegals. That means you think we should toughen up our borders further.
Yet the Brexiteers want you to believe that they can toughen up our borders for people but not for goods. Eh? How? Isnât the problem with illegals – people who are here illegally – that they can just hide in the back of a lorry that youâre not checking.
Incidentally, I travel abroad a lot. By plane, by car, by train. I have never ever – not once – got into or out of the UK without having my passport checked. Have any of you? No. I thought not.
August 16, 2018
We do not “fully control” our borders as you claim Andy.
We have open borders.
It is required as part of our EU membership.
August 16, 2018
Andy, Yes I have got back into the UK from the EU without having my passport checked. And no we cannot turn away EU nationals even if we can check their passports. So, no, we cannot control who crosses our border if they are from the EU.
August 16, 2018
No. The key word is *selective* and the fact that this is not applied has made anti EU sentiment mainstream here and throughout the EU.
Your answer is to ignore such disatisfaction or to vilify it and the EU does this too.
August 16, 2018
Andy
So your point is what exactly.
Illegals are Illegals ! (I assume you mean people, not a sick bird which may also need a passport of some sort, or else be placed in Quarantine.)
Legal people I would assume would come through the normal channels with the correct paperwork.
People who try to come here illegally do so from close by, simply because they cannot balance and hold on to an axle, hide within goods or produce, or stay in refrigerated vans for too long.
Thus foreign ferry ports close by are the attempted original point of entry from abroad, for such people, and the southern Ports of the UK are the most under pressure.
The so called border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would also be a risk to us, although entry through the Irish border Ports would be the first deterrent.
August 16, 2018
I think the concern about frontier controls is not the collection of tariffs but the inspection of food exported from the UK to ensure that it meets EU standards. If we leave without any agreement the EU’s rules will require a proportion of trucks carrying food to be inspected. Since we export so much this will cause congestion in Calais, which will make it difficult for ferries to unload at Calais, which will mean that trucks at Dover cannot get on to the ferries, which will mean that they will need to be parked on the motorway leading to Dover.
That also means that trucks intending to come to the UK from France will not be able to get on to the ferries to bring food imports into the UK, and that means the supermarkets run out of food.
I can’t believe that this will be allowed to happen, but right at the moment I can’t see how we can avoid it without coming to some agreement with the EU that allows our exports to enter the EU without being inspected. We could of course use emergency legislation to limit food exports from the UK to the EU to the amount that can be inspected without causing congestion, but that would badly damage the farming industry. We could stop empty trucks (many of the trucks leaving the UK are empty) using the ferries until the food exports have been cleared, but those trucks would not then be available to bring further imports back into the country.
We only have 8 months to solve this problem. By now we should have detailed arrangements ready, but instead all we have is non-specific assurances that there will be no problem. We need more than that.
August 16, 2018
Food arrives at numerous different ports in Europe and UK from non EU nations from all over the world, every day.
Yet there are no real delays at import and export points currently.
August 16, 2018
And that will go on, but exports to the EU will now be subject to checks at the borders. that’s where the problem could come from if we don’t arrange with the EU how it is to be handled.We export more food to the EU than to the rest of the world.
In the end this will be solved – it is only a temporary problem – but people need to put effort into solving it, not just say we don’t need to bother.
August 16, 2018
.. since we export so much…
Apart from top end whisky and crisps, I can’t ever in 50 years recall seeing any British food in any shop on the continent. Even the lamb is usually NZ.
August 16, 2018
I don’t know about crisps but whisky is a major export. It’s commonly available in the EU at the moment.
We export over ÂŁ9 billion worth of food and drink to the EU each year. I’m confident this can be continued unhindered, I just wish people would recognise that how we do it after Brexit has to be managed, not put together at the last minute.
August 18, 2018
“People” do and many have said so on this blog. The issue all along has been civil servants, politicians and media that refused to accept the referendum and have fought against brexit while protecting the EU interests. The should face loss of job, pension and honours, at the least.
August 16, 2018
Alan said: “… some agreement with the EU that allows our exports to enter the EU without being inspected”. Why so obsessed with state inspections? And at borders? The customer will inspect the exports. As they do now. Making a rule does not ensure compliance, and no state border has 100% inspections, but the customers do, in one form or another.
August 16, 2018
Yes because the UK is a huge net exporter of food to the continent, isn’t it, which makes me wonder what they will all be eating when the French cut off those vital supplies … what a load of twaddle, Alan, either we will starve or they will starve, please do make up your mind which it will be.
August 16, 2018
17.4 million Leave voters could accept Project Fearmongers’ bluffs by buying UK products internally instead. Low demand for EU imports would then itself reduce the risk of border congestion, & not even the Fearmongers’ ghosts could reach the hard border of belief.
August 16, 2018
We and I suspect many more families are doing just that. British built car, non EU wines and absolutely nothing French or German and now add Spanish.
August 16, 2018
” British built car”
So that would be a choice between Delboy’s Reliant Robin or an Aston Martin?
August 18, 2018
The Reliant Robin was a British built, precision machine and the first car ever to be launched atop a rocket. That’s more than can be said of the run of the mill, poseur German stuff.
August 18, 2018
A few more to choose from Margaret,
Bentley, Vauxhall, Rolls Royce, Jaguar, Land Rover, Range Rover, McLaren, Toyota, Nissan, Mini, Honda, Lotus, Morgan.
More than 80 different vehicles built in the UK by more than 30 different manufacturers.
188,000 directly employed, 860,000 in the wider industry in the UK
August 16, 2018
Same here, nothing from the nationalistic Germans and French and we’ve added Southern Irish Beef & mushrooms and Dutch meat, eggs & veg to the exclusions as well. We now practice a UK, Commonwealth and anyone-but-EU purchasing preference, that includes the British built car I am taking delivery of next month.
I’ve always preferred UK cheeses and can now enjoy West Country Brie. I roast my own coffee using green beans sourced from the original growers instead of sustaining German importers. After a bit of experimenting it’s very easy and nothing beats a cup of freshly roasted and ground coffee.
There are some exceptions for now- some Polish, Italian and Spanish foodstuffs but that can change very easily. You do have to check things carefully though, I found some egg noodles that were made in Germany and got some others that were made in China instead.
August 16, 2018
Unlikely. Brexiteers are basically raging against globalisation. That is what Brexit, Trumpism and all the other forms of petty nationalism are about.
And yet, even after Brexit, youâll still all go to the pub to rant about foreigners – particularly illegals – over a cheap pint of French beer, before getting a German made taxi back home, and watching your favourite football team (packed full of foreigners) on your South Korean made TV while ordering an Indian meal on your Chinese made mobile phone.
YOU are globalisation. You already lost.
Reply Try reading this blog again. I never rant against foreigners or condemn world trade!
August 16, 2018
I like globalisation and free trade.
It is the EU I dislike.
It is developing into a protectionist bloc and spoiling the standard of living of its citizens.
August 16, 2018
Hard to believe that your dislike of the EU depicts the reality of this great enterprise. After centuries of wasted warfare we now have an organisation that is the largest economy in the world. The largest exporter which contains the world’s richest countries and the top three world tourist spots: France, Spain and Italy.
It has the largest air craft industries, steel, dairy, fashion. beer, cosmetics, luxury goods, mobile telephones, energy, paper pulping,banking, car manufacturing etc etc. It is the envy of the planet and most of the rest of the world would give up everything to join
Northern EU countries consistently top the world development index. The best places on earth in terms of governance, for women and children, caring states.
Just what standards of living of its citizens have been ‘spoiled’?
August 17, 2018
Great enterprise!
Check out the falling share of world trade high unemployment scandalous levels of youth unemployment porous outer borders low growth high debt.
Spain Portugal Cyprus Italy Greece…you think they are doing well?
It’s held together by Germany plus Holland.
August 18, 2018
Ed2, yeah right! There is more choice of products in the SuperU in the 5000 inhabitants small town in “my”part of Southern France than in either Sainsbury, Tesco or Waitrose in Reading. So talking as you do of the EU “spoiling the standard of living of its citizens” is rather misleading.
Then I had to go and see a local GP who referred me to next town’s hospital for further tests, and I got those within 10 days on the French health service. I guess it would have taken at least six to ten weeks with our NHS here. Is that another example of the EU’s “spoiling the standard of living of its citizens”?
August 18, 2018
So based on the nice selection of products in one zupermarket in one town in one country out of 28 countries you deduce the standard of living of several hundred million people is great.
And then a guess that the NHS might have taken longer than ten days to do your tests.
Hefer, it isn’t a very good way of analysing the wonders of the EU is it.
August 19, 2018
It might not be, but not much worse as your usual vituperating against “the EU spoiling the standard of living of its citizens”. Based on what exactly? If you take things that are likely to matter most to common people (availability of products in shops, children education, health services, energy prices, quality of train services, transport facilities, …) where are the obvious impediments that the EU has brought to its member countries?
So try again, and next time put a bit more meat in your vacuous argument. Thanks in advance.
August 16, 2018
Andy, Yet again you are telling us what we think, rather than asking us what we think. That’s your arrogance working. And that’s why you keep getting things wrong. Moreover, you are much more an EU nationalist than I am a British nationalist – at least I acknowledge there are things wrong in Britain.
The EU is a political and bureaucratic reconstruction of the Roman Empire: in sneering about the principle of nationalism you are actually sneering at your own EU nationalism, but are too thick to see your own hypocrisy.
August 16, 2018
Well,the Carolingian Empire actually-very interesting how it promoted itself as an empire of ideals and “values”(at least in so far as there were values in the early middle ages!)-hence the Charlemagne Prize which both M Macron and Mutti have been awarded in recent years.
It was rather different to the real Roman Empire which continued contemporaneously in the East and which western propagandists (and subsequent generations of historians until quite recently)claimed lacked any values!East-west friction can be traced all the way back to the friction between these two – a cold war of it’s time!
I would recommend anyone interested in the evolution of Europe to read up on this period 500-1000AD,the resonances are very powerful,much more so in my view than subsequent periods.
August 16, 2018
Reply to reply: He deliberately twists our words and what we believe in. His seems the authentic voice of Remain, however.
August 16, 2018
The real threat to our way nation is across the despatch box
We must ditch May but more importantly we must also stop Corbyn and McDonnell for if these two hard line Marxists achieve power the UK and all we love will be obliterated. Marxist Labour will destroy our way of life and they will construct a political state that will be impossible to remove
The Tory PM must use every single tool at their disposal to stop the existential threat that is Marxist Labour
Start by abolishing the opt-in system and strangle McCluskey’s flow of funds to Labour. Strangle this movement’s flow of cash from the taxpayer
The time for half-measures is surely over
August 16, 2018
This is the fear factor May is banking upon. Cling to nurse for rear of something worse.
It might well be justified to fear the alternative in this instance should the Tories lose power, but the negative should be turned into a positive. We shouldn’t be expected to vote tactically against something bad, we should be voting FOR something good.
A person with a really positive expansive outlook will see the virtues and benefits of leaving the EU. That is why May is so unsuitable as a leader at this or any other time. Once a politician’s capital and therefore credibility has been exhausted, it is an almost impossible task thereafter, short of starting a war where patriotism kicks in, to get it back again.
There’s only one thing to do with a lame duck. Put it out of its misery and lift the dark clouds from everyone else’s horizon.
Tad
August 16, 2018
Excellent comment.
August 16, 2018
Somewhat off-topic, a local UKIP member recently gave me a copy of a letter from Theresa May dated July 25th, in which she had written to him:
“The agreement that the Cabinet reached at Chequers will provide a responsible and credible basis for progressing negotiations with the EU … “.
But this morning I see on the Telegraph website:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/15/details-eu-meeting-blew-away-mays-brexit-plan-suppressed-crucial/
“Details of EU meeting that blew away May’s Brexit plan were suppressed before crucial Chequers summit”
“The European Commission briefing given to top EU Brexit officials on July 5 this year was political dynamite, driving a coach and horses through a fundamental part of Britainâs expected negotiating strategy.”
I would not have been terribly surprised by that, given earlier reports that the EU had already rejected both of the UK’s two competing customs proposals and yet Therolly insisted on pursuing some combination or derivative, however I do wonder whether those ministers who signed up to support the final Chequers plan will still feel themselves to be bound by a commitment which was extracted from them by fraud.
August 16, 2018
What fraud? Do you mean her white apeper was already given and discussed with senior EU leaders and countries before cabinet?
Steve Baker was on TV after Chequers and he was very convincing that he was blindsided by May’s paper. He was fuming about it. Sadly he should have given Raab both barrels on the last day of parliament for lying that it kept faith with the referendum. I still find it astonishing that Raab puts his ambition before the nation. May has betrayed the nation and her white paper is full of falsehoods and she lies.
If you are correct I think she should be sacked for dishonesty. I also still fail to see why she was not ousted before the summer recess, clearly she wanted an early summer break to avoid it. She interrupted Merkel from answering when it was going to become clear she had given her a copy and spoke to her before cabinet! Now what is the defintion of a traitor and what acts need to occur to prove it?
August 16, 2018
Good to see a more positive approach from the government Jeremy Hunt saying
that the UK economy would ultimately thrive after any short term difficulties
August 16, 2018
What did Keynes say about the long term?
August 16, 2018
He said quite a lot but I think he would have voted to take control of our
economy for the long term good
August 16, 2018
Which Keynes are we talking about, Horsted Keynes, Milton Keynes, or the much derided and discredited economist of that name?
August 16, 2018
Rien, Keynes isn’t God. Unless you are a holy end-of-the-world prophet or a global warmist ranter there will always be some people alive, at least for the duration of petty political empires like the EU.
August 16, 2018
The Conservative party wouldnât though.
August 16, 2018
Following the result to leave the EU the Chancellor brought in a 25% tax charge for transfers to qualifying overseas pensions unless they were in the EEA.
Says a lot. Slat a 25% tax charge right at the very time when we should be doing the opposite. Very inward looking, negative and immature.
August 16, 2018
We all know how difficult the French can be. The UK needs to anticipate this. They will want to make an example of the UK even if it causes them problems economically. Even the new Irish trade routes are avoiding the French ports. Itâs not goods coming in that will be the problem it will be the trucks returning to the continent that they will hold up. There may be rules under WTO but how long would it take to enforce them? We need to plan for this scenario but we mustnât back down. We never thought Brexit would be easy but we are fighting for our long-term survival. Giving up French wine and cheese is nothing compared with what previous generations had to suffer to defend our country.
August 16, 2018
“Giving up French wine and cheese is nothing compared with what previous generations had to suffer to defend our country”
==
Seeing that Britain invaded a quarter of the globe in pursuit of empire you can hardly claim that we suffered more than the rest of the world in the defense of our country.
In fact, somebody recently established that there are only about 20 countries Britain did not try to invade.
Think of the suffering of their people.
August 17, 2018
You should replay Life of Brian Margaret
The scene where all the lefties are debating What have Romans done for us.
August 18, 2018
Iâm not sure what your point is. Are you saying that because some people suffered in the past under British rule this diminishes what people went through in the two world wars?
August 16, 2018
All imports will be under our control to deal with at our borders
============
Not under WTO rules. You are arguing you can increase barriers against imports from other WTO members.
That’s illegal.
Reply I am arguing no such thing. Glad you agree WTO rules OK – and rules the EU as well as us
August 16, 2018
“Thatâs illegal.”
Chapter and verse, please, not whatever invention comes into your head.
August 16, 2018
Off topic đ
Oh no – “Brexit could have ‘hugely damaging’ effect on football clubs, say chairmen”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45206066
Maybe I’m too simple, but what about signing British players rather than “importing” talent?
August 16, 2018
(Some of these ed) people make up these things to influence the debate. Just to be sure and to get it straight from the horses mouth, I consulted a former Premiership football manager I’m still friendly with. He can foresee ‘no problem whatsoever’ just as a player from outside the EU who wants to play in the UK has no problem whatsoever.
This tells us much about the remain side and the absolute BS they come out with. They must be awash with the stuff!
Tad
August 16, 2018
You could just have English players. But then, before long, the Premier League would lose its global attraction. Teams like Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal are among the most popular in the world because they have the best players in the world. If the best players all end up at Real Madrid, Juventus, Bayern Munich and Paris St Germain – and none of them come here – then who outside of England is going to care about our teams? You might like watching B-grade Wayne from Stoke – most fans donât.
Ah – you say – I donât care if foreigners donât like the English game. Well, will you tell the thousands of people who work in football, media and the associated industries who will be losing their jobs? No. I thought not.
August 16, 2018
Brexit will not affect the best players. Just as the top UK clubs can now get work permits for Brazilian players if they are of international standard so the same rules will be applied to top German or French players. What it will stop is lower league clubs importing journeymen EU players and managers rather than developing UK talent – and that’s a good thing.
August 16, 2018
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest dominated the European Cup in the late 70s/early 80s with British players.
August 16, 2018
When the UK revert to WTO rules in March 2019 it will have to negotiate its tariff schedule will all the WTO members (including the EU) which is likely to take a number of years.
In the meantime, the UK will be treated as a third country and WTO members will have to apply the highest tariff available of all the existing schedules on all the UK exports.
For instance, China charges a 25% import tariff on auto parts which will have to apply worldwide to all UK auto parts exports.
Compounding this issue is that all the UK existing commercial partners already have in place a web of bilateral agreement that significantly reduce WTO tariffs from WTO standard to which the UK is not a party
Please explain me why someone in Mexico would pay 25% tariff to import an auto part manufactured around Sunderland when it can purchase the exact same part from the exact same company to the exact same specifications but manufactured in a country with which Mexico already has an FTA at 5% tariff ?
You do not negotiate a tariff schedule and the 60 odd trade agreement the UK currently enjoy via the EU and which will cease to apply in March 2019 with the click of a finger.
We are talking here at putting British manufacturing at a serious disadvantage for a number of years. Enough time to move plants abroad.
No deal Brexit is a Brexiterâs fantasy. You can put it in the same box as âonce the negotiations start, we own all the cards.â
Reply Completely wrong. The UK tables our schedule of tariffs, and other countries can only object if they think them too high. The EU sticks with its current schedule
August 16, 2018
And you think no other country will object by virtue of what ? Some deep compassion for the political careers of the various Conservative politicians who pitched Brexit to the public.
The US, Australia, Argentina and Malaysia are already objecting to the way the EU and the UK are splitting their quotas.
You really think no one will raise objections ?
The UK is stuck in the WTO for years.
August 16, 2018
And in the meantime, the highest tariffs will apply on British exports. It is not as if WTO members will have a choice in that.
August 16, 2018
Come on then, quote the chapter and verse of the WTO rules which means that they will have no choice in that.
August 16, 2018
Courtesy of the EU we are already stuck for import tariffs on Indica rice where we are the largest consumer in the EU. 24% of imports come to the UK and attract an import tariff despite the EU not being interested or capable of growing it to meet demand. How is this rationale?
We are a net contributing member and yet the vaunted EU chooses to negotiate trade agreements and tariff schedules that penalise us. Clearly we can never trust these people and the sooner we leave and can organise our trade and international relations for our benefit the better.
August 16, 2018
Its about non tariff barriers. You just dont get NTBs, do you Mr Redwood. It shows you up as a beginner every time you write about international trade
Reply The WTO covers NTBs as well as a future post will reveal! If you want to write on this topic try understanding the modern WTO based system
August 16, 2018
Good.
WTO requires members to initiate talk about removing NTBs. It says nothing about what the actual outcome of those talks should be or set a time limit on those. The UK could be in talks for years.
Please enlighten us by any mean but be aware that what you and your friends from the ERG will say will de scrutinized and debunked.
And please do not forget to tell us how you intend to replace the 60 odd trade agreement the UK currently enjoy via the EU in less than 7 months because comes March 2019, they all fall away.
I am really looking forward to read this post.
August 16, 2018
I didn’t see the US government negotiating the various increased US tariffs with all the WTO members before announcing them, nor do I see the Chinese government negotiating its retaliatory tariffs with all the WTO members.
August 16, 2018
Cause no one has the balls to sue the US in front of the WTO for fear of seeing the US leave the WTO.
Sadly, the UK does not exactly have the same pull as the US as you are about to find out.
How is the chicken, Denis ?
August 18, 2018
A triply stupid comment.
August 16, 2018
Just think, if the EU had been a trading bloc as we were promised in 1975, the original Treaty of Rome had been amended so that ever-tightening power grabs were illegal and off limits, and had the EU not tried to turn itself into an undemocratic political entity to rival a totalitarian state, we might not have been having this conversation. All would be peace and harmony.
The main difference between remainers and we leavers boils down to whether or not one is prepared to be like the Eloi in H G Wells’ ‘The Time Machine’ and meekly accept the creeping tide of undemocratic authoritarianism that is the European Union, or have the courage to stand up and fight for our freedom that was hundreds of years in the making.
I find it hard to imagine that any red-blooded individual, regardless of where they hail from, would ever lie down and meekly tolerate what isn’t an inevitability, but might through indifference soon become one. That isn’t scaremongering, that is a provable fact!
Tad
August 16, 2018
I find it hard to imagine that any red-blooded individual, regardless of where they hail from, would think that the UK is in any position of strength when it comes to renegotiating 60 odd trade agreements it will loose once it leaves the EU in March 2019.
How have the negotiation with the EU gone so far ? It has been a one sided turkey shoot.
Just wait till the UK has to renegotiate all those agreement one by one… by no other than Dr Liam Fox (didnât his previous job end in disgrace)
Sovereignty means nothing if you are desperate for a deal and everyone knows it. The US, China and yes the EU will dictate their terms. So much for taking back control.
August 17, 2018
I’ll go along with the Turkey shoot bit, because we’ve had Turkeys doing the negotiating. Put proven negotiators in their place and things would be a whole lot different.
Deals are a two-way process. What external country in their right mind wouldn’t look at the massive trade deficit the UK has with the EU and think, hey, we could do with a slice of that, if only we could trade fairly and not be excluded!
And it would also help lesser developed countries grow their economies rather than holding out their hands for aid or loans they could never hope to repay. As it is, the EU is a protection racket that keeps other nations in poverty just to keep inefficient EU practises going. Little wonder the big corporations love the EU so much!
August 16, 2018
“I find it hard to imagine that any red-blooded individual, regardless of where they hail from, would ever lie down and meekly tolerate what isnât an inevitability, but might through indifference soon become one. That isnât scaremongering, that is a provable fact!”
Would you like to ‘prove’ it then?
You description of EU membership it not anything I can recognise.
August 17, 2018
This would have been posted much earlier had I been able to get on the blog.
If my description of the EU is not something you can recognise, then you haven’t been paying attention for it is accurate and self-evident. Anyone who has ever studied the European Union from its inception to the present day can see it for what it is. Your comments just go to show how ill-informed you are. Do you ever read this blog? Are you incapable of taking in what is written?
And then from your position of weakness, you have the effrontery to challenge those of us who want to leave the EU and thus prevent it enslaving us for ever. It beggars belief.
This is the kind of blind intransigence we are up against folks! People who will argue black is white! They don’t study their subject thoroughly enough, then tell those of us who have, that we are wrong.
August 16, 2018
I’ve seen some daft things said by Remains but Tabulazero’s theory of how the WTO works has to be the daftest yet. There are no “WTO standard” tariffs. He needs to take a look at the definition of MFN status. The “third country” term is from the EU, not a WTO term. The UK can operate what tariffs we want provide they are within WTO rules. China’s import tariffs on car parts will not be applicable to UK exports to other countries. The RTAs and MRAs negotiated by the EU are mostly minor or not implemented yet, and are merely tariff modifications.
August 16, 2018
NickC. You do not have a schedule, one that has been approved and negotiated. Which tariff will apply in the meantime do you think.
August 18, 2018
Wrong
Schedules are already published.
They are simply adopted.
If you are members of WTO you agree to agree with tariff schedules.
August 16, 2018
“It is strange the people who most love the EU expect it to try to start an economic war”
JR The title of a book which contains all, in essence, of what the EU has done to our people
August 16, 2018
A Level passes are at an eight year low, says the media as always without qualification.
We may conclude,therefore, more intelligent “just missed” who will get to work, produce, earn money, and train for something potentially even more productive….with endless prospects.
August 16, 2018
Oh and have a dream five years earlier than anticipated, fulfilled. A home, marriage …with indubitably in the latter of everlasting joy and happiness đ
August 16, 2018
I am afraid that there is a real problem with the language of this increasingly tedious debate because either deliberately or carelessly some people on both sides have equated “No special or preferential trade deal” with “No deal on anything at all”, not even ancillary administrative or practical agreements rather than formal treaty agreements worthy of being included in the UN treaty database.
So, to illustrate with a patently absurd example, should we fail to conclude a so-called comprehensive free trade agreement like CETA with the EU then that would rule any agreement at all, however minor or trivial, and so there would not even be the possibility of customs officials on both sides exchanging phone numbers or email addresses so they could communicate and share information.
What seems like a long time ago now, in fact last November, I suggested we should give up on trying to get a special trade deal with the EU and focus on the practicalities:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/11/26/the-irish-border-with-northern-ireland/#comment-903216
“So we should now say that rather than kowtow to the stupid destructive intransigence of the EU we will fall back on WTO trade rules and only seek agreements on the practical or technical aspects of continuing trade.
That would do us some economic harm, although nowhere near as much as portrayed by the Remoaners, and it would do the other countries more economic harm, albeit it would be spread around among them, but on most projections the country which would suffer by far the greatest economic damage would in fact be Ireland.”
August 16, 2018
Remainer MPs always put as first thing that EU citizens come what may, should be encouraged to stay in the UK post Brexit. So cruel! A future of poverty, isolationism, their dreams of a good life shattered with bleak futures for their children.
Odd.But Remoaner MPs,…they actually do know the truth. Perhaps they are just playing a mean game of utter dishonesty.
August 16, 2018
If you really want a bleak future for your children go to Spain – youth unemployment 37%. (14% in UK).
August 16, 2018
I see from the Brexit bulletin from the D Tel newsletter that Theresa May is showing signs of a fudge on free movement. Tragically that is not a surprise as she has repeatedly demonstrated her inability to keep promises, and her ability to be disingenuous. The consequences for the country and for the conservative Party’s hopes of staying in government are indicated by this excerpt from the bulletin:
“….But the real reason why it (crossing the red line on free movement) would be toxic for Mrs May is its impact on those most likely to support her. 60 per cent of Conservative voters â and 61 per cent of Leave voters â told Deltapoll last month that free movement should not be up for negotiation. The only reason Mrs May is still Prime Minister is thanks to these two groups supporting her. Alienating them will make it all the more likely that Jeremy Corbyn gets into Downing Street instead.
Life “for us will be different”, Mrs May warned at Florence. Yet she is reluctant to spell out how the migration system will be any different. If she wants to truly “keep faith with the vote of the British people”, she needs to come up with some answers.
…”
August 16, 2018
It’s not going to happen. This is her biggest and final fudge.
Meanwhile back in the real world, large German companies are responding to Trump’s sanctions on Iran.. Despite the EU saying they shouldn’t… a harbinger of things to come… unless Timid Maid stays and caves in for us.
August 16, 2018
Well, here’s an article from a young lady who is now with Open Europe but who at one time worked on the other side, and I don’t like the sound of it at all:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-new-brexiteer-mantra-just-get-it-over-the-line
“The new Brexiteer mantra? Just get it over the line”
“The thinking is that any deal can be unpicked at a later date. But does it work like that?”
Of course it wouldn’t work like that, we’d make concessions to get what was supposed to be just an interim deal and then be stuck with it forever, however unsatisfactory it may be; it’s far safer to fall back on the WTO treaties which already exist and are already in force, and then possibly build from that baseline in the future.
August 16, 2018
It seems the free-movement rebranding that May wants to implement will involve any EU citizen with a job arranged to come here. I think I’ll set up a shell company which, for a small fee, will offer a job to any EU citizen who wants to come and live here. Then they can look for a real job at their leisure whilst enjoying the full range of UK benefits, get their children educated and so on – should be useful for freelance and self-employed workers – builders, catering staff, farm staff etc. -anyone really.
The other compromise May is desperate to keep quiet is fishing. She keeps saying after Brexit the EU will get a “fair share” of UK waters – why that “fair share” should be anything other than zero is unclear to me.
August 16, 2018
Yes it is Barnsley MBC Socialist Republic. A quarter of a million people awaiting liberation by just about anyone.
August 16, 2018
JR You didn’t publish my full comment in regard to Barnsley MBC Socialist Republic.
It was exceeding long…too long., I admit
I was merely writing of its dos and donts, which grammarians have three variations in punctuation not including the one I am doing.
So I merely presented a whole dollop of what Barnsley MBC Socialist Republic do all over the place willy-nilly over dog years
August 17, 2018
Margaret Howard:
Difference is the essence of existence & European nationsâ history exhibits high qualities. Yet in stark contrast, the EU spoils their distinctive individuality with rigid regulations enforcing the stupid sameness we have now rejected.
We are an island nation of independent-minded folk who chose to dump EU dogma & nonsense. We are the vanguard. Other neighbours in Europe shall follow us into freedom from EU worthlessness. The EU continues to wither into a shadow of the past behind all of us & all of those who reject idiocy.