Remain return to their Project Fear like moths returning to the heat of a light which might destroy them. Prior to the referendum they forecast big job losses, house price falls and a recession in the first winter after a No vote. We now know this was completely wrong. Using their language, these were “Catastrophic” forecasting errors. They took themselves “off the cliff edge” of bad forecasts.
This time they have decided to play it safer by going for long term forecasts. That means they cannot be proved wrong any time soon. It also means many Remain spokesmen and women will misrepresent what these new studies show. They all show us better off in ten years time, with or without Brexit. The so called losses are lower forecast gains, not actual losses. It also means if they assume marginal shortfalls in growth from Brexit, they add up over a long period of time to larger sums. Remain should understand this, as our growth rate throughout our time in the EEC/EU was slower on average than in the post War years prior to entry. They got their long term forecasts wrong when we entered, expecting faster growth. If Leave supporters played back their approach we could show substantial long term losses from membership. The big losses thanks to the Exchange Rate Mechanism disaster in the middle of our membership were particularly costly and were actual losses or declines in income and output,not just slower growth.
Instead of parroting imprecise long term forecasts from people who got their short term forecasts wrong in 2016-17, they should be trying to make amends. Journalists should cross examine them about how they can possibly know what our economy and the rest of the world will be like in ten or fifteen years time. If we leave and take back control properly next March we could pursue an economic, trade and spending policy that would give a good boost to our economy and its output. These forecasts concentrate on seeing negatives for our trade, without thinking about all the positives from saving the money we send to the EU, substituting home production for imports, and lowering tariffs in general when we set our own schedule. The main reasons they think growth will be a bit slower is assuming a net increase in trade barriers, and assuming much lower inward migration.
Project Fear did not work first time round for the Referendum. Each time it is tried it is even less effective, as we saw through the lies the previous time. It reminds us that Remain never have a positive case for membership of the EU or for a close economic partnership with it. They just bang on about what could go wrong, and assume the rest of the EU will behave as badly as possible towards us.
November 27, 2018
Good Morning,
Two issues stood out to me un yesterday’s debate:
1st. JRM reminded the PM that the HOL had come to a conclusion that the UK does not have any outstanding debt to the EU on just leaving on 29-3-19. Mrs May said that there are ‘other legal opinions’ saying that we do owe money. This answer should have been questioned; from where does this opinion come, and let us see it.
2nd. Mrs May repeated that any type of ‘leaving the EU’ arrangement would require a form of Northern Irish ‘backstop’. The only one that doesn’t is simply leaving without an arrangement, and both sides of the northern Irish border doing what they promise that is not to make any physical changes to that border. Any customs changes will require adherence to this promise or thy cannot be applied.
November 27, 2018
Mr Wood, if the UK and the EU choose to leave the border in Ireland open, they must leave all other borders open too. That is the basic rule of non-discrimination in the WTO. You do no one any favours by writing posts that advocate illegal actions. I want to leave, but I do not want to live in some fantasy world where our legal obligations are magicked away. Please be serious
November 27, 2018
David Davis & the ERG have long advocated applying MaxFac across all borders. The EU have advocated MaxFac for the Irish Sea. EU27 member states responsible for applying WTO rules facilitating trade. http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/08/memo-to-dominic-raab/#comment-971964
Mr Wood – Legally, the EU will owe the UK a small amount: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/04/bad-deals/#comment-970976
November 28, 2018
Another remainer myth about how the WTO operates from Karl.
WTO rules allow nations to have different arrangements on tariffs and borders by doing risk assessments.
November 28, 2018
Karl
Oh dear mate, please actually READ the rules dont just post Facebook myths
Here you go
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136
November 27, 2018
Where is the invoice?
November 27, 2018
May promised a line by line examination and came up with an offer of £20 billion. Then she capitulated and doubled it with all UKmassets thrown in!
Varadkar admitted in his parliament that his preferred route would be to trap the U.K. in customs and single market but if we left without an agreement other options would be hurried up. So there are others ways.
There are always going to be different views and legal opinion. However, this is not necessary in ascertaining the truth in this case. Use May’s own words to draw your conclusion. May is educated and intelligent. She knows fully well what she is saying are lies.
Fabricant points out in the DT today how May said at Lancaster that staying in a customs union and single market would mean complying with their rules, directives and laws without a say and in effect would not be leaving the EU. In stark contrast she is now trying to claim the opposite. May cannot have it both ways. She is a liar and dishonest.
Atkins in conservative home is a worth while read.
November 27, 2018
Peter, how many teachers, nurses, doctors, police officers or soldiers could we afford for £39 billion or the actual hundred billion? The Withdrawal Agreement does not set out the actual amount the UK will pay it is based on principles. So do not be surprised this is part of Maysmdishonest Kitkat policy to hide true costs and ties to the EU. And for how many years? The EDF at £3.75 billion is not on the UK books but it is agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement the U.K. will pay! We already pay £14 billion for our own overseas aid. No UK politician has a say over how the EU spends the EDF.
November 27, 2018
Indeed and where is an itemised exit bill detailing the breakdown for these £billions what about our share of all the “assets” we paid for over 40 odd years if they are actually due?
November 27, 2018
JR never addresses this point. I suppose he knows nothing or cannot find out but he won’t tell us that.
November 28, 2018
According to Davis in answer to Patel asking that question in parliament the £39 billion was reached after U.K. assets were deducted. Therefore it is at least £100 billion. However, it is not written in any agreement as it is based on principles because the sum is. Likely to be much higher. For example, you will see from the Withdrawal Agreement that the UK will continue to pay for the EDF, no end date, and also pay for refugee and immigration trust that pays Turkey vast sums of our money. The EDF yearly payment of £3.75 billion not on U.K. books! Perhaps part of the dishonest Kitkat policy to hide costs and ties to the EU.
November 27, 2018
The EU may indeed have an arguable case that we must continue payments. But we can dispute it and it could take years for international litigation and arbitration to settle the matter. The problem for the EU is that it does not have borrowing powers and the remaining 27 will have to bridge the funding gap we leave or the EU projects will all stop at some point.
November 27, 2018
We all know the £39 billion was ‘buying’ goodwill, but it seems there is none to be had even for ready money. And if there was a legal basis, aside from the drivel Barnier spouts, you can be sure the EU would have published it by now. They haven’t. The EU is financed in a particular way as set out in the Treaties, the very same the EU regard as Holy Writ. The only possible outstanding debt there could be are for items which are financed off the books so to speak, bilateral agreements not covered by the Treaties. If the EU are saying there are these vast liabilities you cannot have those without assets. The EU don’t seem to mention those. Funny that.
As to the ‘backstop’ it is nothing of the sort. It is designed to keep the UK in the Customs Union for ever and a day. Mrs May was stupid to agree to any form of backstop and indeed she ought to have said from the very beginning that the treatment of the UK/Irish border was a matter (on the UK side) for the UK. It is a matter of Sovereignty.
November 27, 2018
It could be Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry’s opinion, they’re both lawyers. And Mrs May never specified the amount owed, she just said “we do owe money”, so it could be fifty quid to pay for the slice of cake served to her by Donald Tusk. Weasel words
November 27, 2018
On your second point about the border in Ireland, then surely a ‘promise not to make any physical changes’ is an agreement, just like any other? How would it be enforced if one nation breaks it?
It also has to be recognised that WTO Most Favoured Nation principle applies to customs checks. If there is no agreement and we rely on WTO, we have to treat goods from Ireland the same way as from any other WTO member. The only way around this was recognised in the Institute for Economic Affairs WTO paper, which proposed asking the WTO to waive the principle on the grounds of security. My understanding is that this could be contested by any WTO member and there are a lot of countries which could contest it just to make trouble.
November 27, 2018
“Mrs May said that there are ‘other legal opinions’ saying that we do owe money.”
One would have thought that from her point of view, the HOL opinion would have overruled ‘other legal opinions’.
Why is she so anxious to hand over this money? More than that why is she so anxious to keep Britain tied to the EU even after a majority of voters elected to leave?
She needs to be removed along with her big-business go-betweens, Hammond and the civil service ‘advisers’.
November 27, 2018
Martin Howe QC’s exchange with Downing Street in the Spectator: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/brexit-deal-martin-howe-qc-responds-to-no10s-rebuttal/ https://lawyersforbritain.org/category/legal-opinion proves that the backstop and it’s enforceability by the EU are at the heart of Mrs May’s own strategy in obtaining the sham Brexit she wants. It places handcuffs on the UK whose key remains permanently with the EU. The only conclusion we can draw is that May, the EU and the Irish government have all been sitting on the same side of the table. There is no other explanation for the one-sided nature of the withdrawal agreement she has committed her cabinet to. This is a deception that is beyond scandalous.
It validates what Barwell said in July about Mrs May: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/09/18/was-the-eu-really-trying-to-help-mrs-may-with-its-change-of-view/#comment-961615
The NI border non-issue was simply a ruse. http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10/18/no-more-delays-just-get-on-with-it/#comment-967605 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/05/andrew-gimsons-pmqs-sketch-corbyn-has-worked-out-how-to-make-may-look-weak.html#IDComment1061969486
November 27, 2018
All very true, JR. But Theresa May, whose name will live in historical perfidy, will spend the next two weeks using the biased MSM, and weak-kneed Conservatives, to spread her mantra that her draft withdrawal agreement has “delivered”. My personal forecast, which I pray is false, is that the House of Commons will sanction her deception.
November 27, 2018
If they do the Tories are dead and the economy will be destroyed by Corbyn/McDonnall/SNP.
Thanks goodness for Trump, two very sensible statements from him – Appeaser May’s idiotic deal is very good for the EU and may kill a free trade agreement between the UK and US. Also he did not believe the climate alarmist exaggerations. Nor do I or most of scientists and engineers I know. Climate alarmist is largely religion and politics not science.
November 27, 2018
So William Hague comes up with the eight Eurosceptic reasons in favour of May’s appalling (let’s put the UK in an EU prison) deal, today in the Telegraph.
Is this really the best he can do? All eight reasons are totally pathetic. Worst of all is seven:- “I want Theresa May to remain as Prime Minister and see Brexit through.” He is surely about the only one who does?
This would be followed in very short order by the death of the Tory party and a Corbyn/SNP total disaster for the economy.
Get a WTO Brexit please and get rid of May & Hammond they both richly deserved an ignominious ejection. Replace with some real Conservatives who have a lower tax, lower regulation, UK based democratic, pro growth vision please.
November 27, 2018
‘Weak-kneed Conservatives’ I no longer think we have a Conservative party only some type of liberal mush mash. Apart from this treacherous betrayal of Brexit which they will all at the end of the day pass. Just look at two stories from todays news, the May appointed Home Secretary wont jail armed thugs because we cant afford more prisons.
Then the case of a Christian lady that May has refused asylum because it might upset a certain group when now seem to be in charge of our asylum policy.
This is not the Conservative Party of the past.
November 27, 2018
Reported Liddington and Barwell invited and spoke to Labour MPs last night. The former then has the Gaul to go TV today to talk about Tory splits if MPs do not support her deal!
In the papers today. Tory Maria Caulfield said: ‘It is so disappointing that after Gavin Barwell faithfully promised me and many other colleagues that Number 10 would never try to gain Labour MPs support against us as a party, it seems they have gone back on their pledge.
‘Not least because doing so would destroy the government. Yet now Number 10 is trying to do what it swore it never would.’
November 27, 2018
If we ever do achieve the claimed control of migration and numbers really reduce, then the Ponzi of increased growth will reduce and we will have less. However, this will not be growth per head of population, as total population will be lower. We will not be worse individually. As usual, thr Treasury Fear numbers are worthy of Mr Ponzi
November 27, 2018
I am more interested in the quality of life. How many here like being stuck in endless traffic or crammed into trains ?
November 27, 2018
This week May is going to sign the UN. migration pact that many countries refuse to do because they want to retain control over migration and not give this sovereign right to the UN.
This will impact on immigration.
May’s withdrawal agreement gives EU citizens right to ECJ and their descendants! So much for brining back control of our laws, this will be a dual legal system in our own country! May originally had a red line for EU uncontrolled immigration to stop during her punishment extension, now it contues without and definite time limit for it to end.
November 27, 2018
With our schools overcrowded, doctor’s surgeries oversubscribed, open land being built on due to overdemand for houses, etc., there’s certainly an argument that reducing population and therefore population density would improve quality of life.
November 27, 2018
If we ever do achieve the claimed control of migration and numbers really reduce, then the Ponzi of increased growth will reduce and we will have less. However, this will not be growth per head of population, as total population will be lower. We will not be worse individually. As usual, thr Treasury Fear numbers are worthy of Mr Ponzi.
November 27, 2018
Sorry. Smart said capcha had not functioned, so you then have to change it with a .
November 27, 2018
The forecasts in 2016 assumed no corrective action after the calamity of the Brexit vote. Fortunately the astute interventions of the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr Hammond staved off the worst consequences. But all serious economists know we have suffered serious harm through the Brexit vote, with worse to come – particularly if the reckless pursuit of “no deal” succeeds
November 27, 2018
Well then, Henry Spark doesn’t your evidence just go to show how thick the forecasters were in 2016?
Leavers have always told them that the Bank of England and the UK Treasury had economic levers and instruments to deal with any shocks. It was Remainers who are oblivious to the flexibility having our own Currency and Central Bank affords us.
And they’re still at it.
Incidentally didn’t Hammond say the other day that (even) ‘this Brexit Deal is better than staying in’.
So be careful who you praise. Remainers are gradually sinking into a minority comprising a few fringe cranks.
November 27, 2018
Governor of the Bank of England lowered interest rates slightly. If that was all it took the so called calamaity wasn’t a calamity.
The UK economy is growing faster than the Eurozone. German’s economy shrank in the last quarter.
November 27, 2018
Well, Henry is welcome to his bizarre alternative universe, but after March 29, in the real world, Remainers will still occupy most positions of power. Is it not likely they will do all they can to make sure their defeatist predictions come true?
When the fox holds keys to the henhouse who does not fear for the hens?
November 27, 2018
You have some nerve to criticise others for false forecasts! We hold most of the cards, you gaily promised. Oh really? Where are the exact same benefits Mr Davis promised? Where are the trade deals knocked up over a cup of coffee according to Dr Fox and signed off last September, according to Mr Davis? Where are the German carmakers coming running to our rescue, as Mr Duncan Smith promised? And where’s the money for the NHS promised by Gove and Johnson?
November 27, 2018
£350 Million a week was promised for the NHS. The increases announced recently are £394 Million a week. And we haven’t left yet.
No doubt we can always cut it back to £350 Million if that’s what you would like.
And Yes we still do ‘have all the cards’. But John Redwood can’t force a Remainer Prime Minister and Chancellor to play them.
November 27, 2018
What concerns me is that a GP was interviewed on the BBC this morning comparing our unnecessary deaths from cancer to other EU countries. It was claimed that patients did not like to bother the Dr or they couldn’t get an appointment as there are not enough Doctors. Rubbish! Most health centres have Nurse surgeries and Dr’s surgeries. Patients will get an appointment and investigations can be started the same day of the appointment with the Nurse Practitioner who will take the physiological tests herself and get the ball rolling.The Nurse will not hand out the work to others and has an understanding of potential dangers to patients. She will refer under a 2 week rule if really concerned and involve the Dr as a priority if needed, she will phone consultants and registrars on the day.These professionals are experienced practitioners and patients should be aware that if they are worried then they will get an appointment.
You may have noticed as a group of people that the Heading’ Health Centres’ have been changed as CCG;s took over and the plaques which have been displayed centres around the Doctors exclude all others. This perception of health care is offensive as it suggests that there are only one group of people who can help patients. The dependence on one profession is dangerous and the claim for more an money to be spent on these people who in the community have a bulk of coughs , colds and minor problems is disturbing when people need help,!
November 27, 2018
The figure on the side of the bus wasn’t even a promise, but to suit their own ends, remainers spin it as if it were so. That is because they are desperate to back up their claims of pending catastrophe if we leave the EU, but are so short of any hard evidence that will actually stand up. In fact, the slogan on the side of the bus was a suggestion by one campaign group. It wasn’t even a manifesto commitment by a political party.
The line to watch now though, is the oft used ‘even this or that hard line brexiteer says it is best to stay in the EU, so we need a second referendum’.
This is completely dishonest and shows the lengths to which this pro-EU trash will distort the facts to get their way. The true meaning is that Mrs. May’s deal is even worse than staying in, not that any real Brexiteer advocates such a policy, rather, because we won’t be able to get out of the EU without the EU’s permission if she gets her way.
Perhaps these remainers quite like the idea of the UK being a soviet-style satellite vassal state, controlled centrally from afar by some latter-day politburo over which we have no control?
Tad
November 27, 2018
Ron -‘£350 Million a week was promised for the NHS. ‘
No it wasn’t – even a single penny – read the bus poster again and try to understand it.
November 27, 2018
Just like those that made much the same promises over our membership of the EU, they were plainly FALSE !
November 27, 2018
@Renton; Don’t blame out host and other Brexiteers, blame the utterly hapless PM, she is far to ready to listen to unelected civil servants and other unnamed sources of wisdom, such as the legal advice that disagrees with the HoL findings on the UK’s payment liabilities etc.
The UK does hold a much stronger hand than our PM has played, its almost as if some on our own side of the table have been holding a mirror up behind our Brexit negotiators…
November 27, 2018
Renton
The German car manufacturers are not up in arms because Mrs May has given the EU all what they wanted, CONTROL over the UK for many more years to come, only this time it is a legal agreement with no simple get out, they will only let us out when they want to.
Do please read the agreement. We have given out all the concessions, the EU have taken greater control and given up nothing yet.
Far from this being the end of so called negotiations, May has agreed to negotiations for years to come but called it a transition period.
November 27, 2018
Post war growth lagged behind France and Germany, after joining the EU it became significantly better. Throughout the post war economic decline caused by State ownership and Unions incomes improved . This was true into the 70s when the whole edifice finally crashed
There will still be some growth. That does not excuse doing the stupidest thing conceivable.
November 27, 2018
What transformed UK economic prospects was the govt of Margaret Thatcher. The period of EEC membership from 73-79 didn’t do much for us. I agree EEC/EC membership probably did mean more trade than there otherwise would have been – although some of the increase was trade diversion from traditional trading partners in the Commonwealth. Membership probably also provided an additional justification for Thatchers supply side reforms such as cuts to subsidies and privatisation. Unfortunately the EU turbo-charged the political integration at the time of Maastricht and in subsequent treaties – it became quite clear that the mission was not to facilitate max trade between members it was to create a federal superstate.
The balance of advantage shifted.
Reply It meant more imports and less made and grown here
November 27, 2018
@Newmania; The most stupidest thing conceivable was joining the EEC/EU in the first place (yes a lot of 20/20 hindsight there), but having done so the next stupidest thing conceivable has been trying to buck ever closer union, something that has been written into treaties since at least the TFEU in 1957 – and acknowledged as such by Ted Heath in media UK interviews back in ’72, we were told; the third most stupidest thing conceivable will be trying to remain in the EU on our current or worse (vessel State) terms… So it will be either Brexit on WTO terms or become one of the 28 states that make up the USE, I bet I know what the majority of UK voters would choose is asked (again)!…
November 27, 2018
Growth.
Yup. Business wants ever more consumers crammed onto this island.
November 27, 2018
*correction*
Business wants ever more *state subsidised* consumers crammed onto this island.
No wonder they love mass immigration and our debt – in all forms – is so bad.
November 29, 2018
Dear Maybot
I am very much in favour of sending immigrants who just cone over to abuse the social system back to where they came from.
However immigration as a whole has had a net positive effect on our GDP and EU immigration as a subset has as well. Clearly one can still be against immigration but it will remain. You will according to recent statements from the UK government just have to expect that it will be more immigrants from Asia and Africa than from Europe. And if you prefer this it is fine with me as well, but to assume that in the globalised world we live in the government will meaningfully reduce immigration is maybe a legitimate wish but one which is likely to be disappointed.
November 27, 2018
As repeatedly pointed out there is no historical evidence to support any claim that joining the EEC was of significant overall economic benefit to the UK. And equally there is no historical evidence to support any claim that the creation of the EU Single Market was of significant overall economic benefit to the UK; as the UK government is well aware the EU’s own negotiator, Michel Barnier, authored a report saying that the overall gain was only about 2% of GDP averaged across the EU, and there is evidence that the gross gain for the UK was only about half of that, while taking into account costs it has probably been a net loss.
In fact I would argue that both events had only marginal overall economic effects one way or the other: some companies and sectors did a bit better, others were harmed; some jobs were gained and others were lost, but in rather small numbers compared to the high natural “churn” of jobs in the UK economy.
So for example:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/02/09/the-bank-seeks-to-slow-the-economy-some-more/#comment-918121
“Background noise apart, UK GNP since 1949 has grown at about 2.5 per cent per annum, irrespective of the party in office, regardless of geopolitical events … ”
November 27, 2018
I recall something called The Marshall Plan, where post-war US aid went towards rebuilding the devastated infrastructures and economies of those countries such as Germany to stop them falling to communism. They certainly had an advantage over an impoverished post-war Britain that had more or less to go it alone and rebuild itself.
As for your last sentence, how can freedom and emancipation possibly be the ‘stupidest thing conceivable’?
I bet Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King would have given you an argument!
Tad
November 27, 2018
The UK was a recipient of more Marshall plan aid than Germany . We messed it up all on our own
November 28, 2018
On that I agree with you,Newmania.We wasted it pretending we were still an imperial power.The historian,Corelli Barnet,has written a series of brilliant and scathing books on this period of our history.
November 28, 2018
That would be the Attlee government then.
The Marshall Plan was given in the form of grants. Ours went towards paying for munitions. How much did Germany have to pay the US for the weapons they used in World War Two?
November 29, 2018
“After the German surrender the US and Britain pursued an “intellectual reparations” programme to harvest all technological and scientific know-how as well as all patents in Germany to the value of around $119 billion today.
Under President Truman’s Executive Order 9604 (also known as the “License to Steal) agents of the U.S. government committed the greatest robbery in world history: the theft of German intellectual (scientific) property.
What technology they stole has fuelled some of the greatest scientific advances of the modern era incl space exploration
DMail 7/9/13
November 27, 2018
”The stupidest thing conceivable”? Yes, that certainly IS the way we feel about T May’s ”deal”. How perceptive of you – at last.
But as you’re a remainder, Newmania, perhaps you could tell us what is the most admirable thing about your much-admired EU and why we should wish to keep pouring money into it. And tell us a little about the great and glorious future we’ve forfeited by voting ‘leave’. Shouldn’t take long. Won’t need much of an effort on your part to keep it short.
November 27, 2018
Please quote the exact figures and the official website reference for verification of your duff figues……. oh , I thought not – you are not going to do that, are you Newmania 😏?
zorro
November 28, 2018
Newmania
“Post war growth lagged behind France and Germany”
Because Gt Britain was paying for the cost of liberating the likes of France and Belgium.
Also the fact that British industry was denied the raw materials necessary for export, and the British people themselves were subject to rationing even into the 1950’s
What share of the war debt did France take on ?…..not a bloody penny, and it was the french who caused WW2 in the first place.
November 28, 2018
We were spending far too much on armaments-partly at the request of the USA-and that squeezed out spending on more productive areas.
For part of the postwar period,we still had the residual benefit of Empire too-the dollars earned from Malaya’s rubber plantations and tin mines for instance.
November 27, 2018
‘Forecasts’ have come out in the past two days (one in particular from the NIESR paid for by ‘People’s Vote) purporting to be able to forecast the effect of Brexit on tax revenues in 2030 to within a Billion or Two Pounds.
Leaving aside that they have no idea what Trade Deals or anything else that will be entered into over the ten years following the conclusion of the ‘implementation period’, we don’t even know yet whether we will even enter the ‘implementation period’.
Yet the NIESR, the OBR etc weren’t able to forecast the annual budget deficit for the most recent full fiscal year with similar accuracy even AFTER the year had ended, and have never managed to come close to forecasting it to similar precision well after the year had started.
Yet they go on their merry way and the BBC carries on reporting it all as if these figures were tablets of stone brought down to it by Moses.
November 27, 2018
Mr Redwood is quite right in his analysis of the Project Fear Campaign.
Where Remainers have been successful, however, is in concentrating the argument on the possible negative effect on trade. Yes, no doubt there will be a short term hiccough for trade between the UK and the EU 27, but it is quite insignificant compared with the things Leavers voted for in the Referendum. These were were the return of sovereignty to our not insignificant nation to enable us to pass our own laws and make our own treaties and agreements with whomsoever we have mutual interests, control our borders and so on free from Brussels rules. Trade was never top of the list. We knew there could be short term hitches but that is a price worth paying.
The Remainers, however, have recruited a small number (compared with the electorate that is) of business interests who are more interested in their comfortable status quo than in the long term interests of the nation. As Hillaire Belloc put it they ‘would keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse’.
November 28, 2018
We’re 2 and a half years post-referendum and we’re still waiting for a shred of evidence that suggests Brexit will make us better off. ‘Trade was never top of the list’ – well don’t you think it should have been?
November 27, 2018
And you have the gaul to complain about the BBC.
Reply I do not publish lies about me or anyone else. If you wish to have several posts a day avoid libels, long blogs etc
November 27, 2018
Reply to reply.
So you do not like libel against you or others ? Fair enough. So why allow people to call the leader of your party and PM a liar ? That is something I have not done. And in my post you delayed, it had no libalous references to anyone. I just happened to disagree with your position. I have done this before with little trouble, so why now ?
November 27, 2018
Reply to Mark B
Mark, the BBC tells lies on a grand scale. John Redwood does not tell lies, I can vouch for that.
You have to remember this site is run by the good will of the host, and while I’d be the first to admit I sometimes get frustrated too, it is worthwhile recognising that running a site like this requires watching out very carefully for potential libel. Hence the moderation. John Redwood actually goes out on a limb to allow us to post what we do.
If your post does not appear, or does so edited, you can be sure there will be a very good reason.
JR; have you never considered making the blog into more of a forum ?
November 27, 2018
The UK’s economic relationship is only one aspect of the Leave argument. Far more important is the restoration of democratic and legal sovereignty to Parliament and back to the British people
We must cut all legal and constitutional ties with the EU. I resent the idea of non-UK politicians passing laws without British voters being able to hold them to account through a direct democratic mechanism
Remain voters are a godsend to autocratically minded politicians. Unbridled unaccountability is the endgame for all Europhile politicians. The weakening of democratic structures so that they can wield their power without having to seek approval from British voters. While we are forced to adhere to such laws, pay our taxes and have our voice removed.
Well, maybe there are Remain voters who have masochistic tendencies but most British people are democratic to their core and we despise politicians. Democracy is the only avenue we possess to hold these modern political animals to account. We can no longer view them as moral creatures.
Brexit is a vote for democratic accountability. Remain is a vote for a world in which the democratic voice is crushed
November 27, 2018
Duncan, your final paragraph is spot on and explains the elites’ position.
November 27, 2018
True. But they’re not ”elite”.
November 27, 2018
Our duopoly is currently offering me a choice between a sixth form Communist and UKIP both of which options are an insult to the intelligence of a gnat.
This may make you feel terribly proud but this defense of democracy would feel a lot more sincere if we actually had one.
Do you seriously think John Redwood could get elected ?
He was selected
November 27, 2018
At least it gives us the direct right to sack our ‘President’, Newmania.
November 27, 2018
Duncan you are so right. Your post sums everything up perfectly.
November 27, 2018
“Far more important is the restoration of democratic and legal sovereignty to Parliament and back to the British people,” you say!
Please, can you tell me exactly how the lives of 66 million citizens, will noticeably change after the “restoration”? Will it be of biblical proportions? Exactly what will I be able to do post-Brexit that I can’t do now?
I have not seen any proposals from any political party, that will fundamentally change the structure of the two centuries out of date Westminster elective dictatorship system!
The “executive dominance” of Downing Street in such a system, has surely been proven since the referendum. President T. May rules OK. At least “we the people” have some protection, currently, from the ECJ.
How long will a fixed term parliament be post-Brexit? Easily changed by the majority party in a state that has no written constitution that would need a super-majority to change it. Which is how we got Brexit on a mere 52 – 48 vote split.
November 27, 2018
Duncan, You put that very well.
November 27, 2018
Would you expect Cambridge analytics to do the dirty work for those “autocratically minded unaccountable Europhile politicians (who are not moral creatures of course). Apparently “most British people are democratic to their core and despise politicians”. I just wonder how “democratic” people would be governed without politicians. Also, pse give some good sources for the statement: ” most British people etc” . I wonder how this has been surveyed and especially what is so uniquely British about being democratic and with low esteem for politicians. Apparently Dutchmen and Danes (who tend to be quite happy /approve with large majorities of EU membership, be it always critical (the fundamental requirement for democracy) about what goes on there) are different. Slaves, maybe in your view of the world.
November 27, 2018
I agree and it seems to me that what we are seeing is the ‘end game’, which started when the Brown government agreed to the EU removal of England and Wales from the map and the regionalising the UK. I think that this was done to make it impossible for Britain ever again being able to bring dictatorships in Europe to an end. The deletion of Wales from the map raised screams of national rage which caused the EU to hastily place it back on the map, explaining that its removal had been ‘a drafting error’.
If May’s deal now goes through, what little remains of Parliamentary sovereignty will be reduced to that of a sort of super county council, unable to reject or alter any EU directives or regulations, even if they positively harm our trading and commercial viability in comparison with other EU nations. Is that really what our remainers politicians really want? I certainly don’t and can find none amongst my circle of family and friends that do.
November 27, 2018
In early 2016 when ‘Brexit’ was just the fantasy of a few mainly posh public schoolboys, it was not entirely clear what Brexit would mean. In other words it was okay to think there would be economic benefits because we didn’t really know.
As we reach the end of 2018 this is not the case. We know there are no economic benefits of Brexit. None. This is not even debatable anymore. You lost. The only question is how much poorer your Brexit will make us – not whether it will make us poorer. And, by us, I mean our children because obviously you will not be paying your own bills.
The evidence is now clear. Brexit makes everything worse and nothing better. This is now obvious – even to all of you. We can see what Brexit looks like and it is naff.
Just remember: Your grandchildren will really never forgive you.
November 27, 2018
You are so sure of the future andy.
Can you tell me the winners of the 2.30 at Kempton Park please
November 27, 2018
Try reasoning on the issues instead of the constant threats to our grandchildren. We want them to be free!!
zorro
November 27, 2018
Civil servants have allegedly told mr Gove that in the event of a No Deal we will not have access to treatment chemicals putting our water supply at risk, apparently this is the reason he supports the proposed arrangement.
Surely you cannot put the whole population at risk?
I see the puffed up preened Brandon Lewis is at it again in the DT. Please tell mr Lewis his relevance to the avarage voter is zero.
November 27, 2018
It is rare for a political campaign to have been founded on so many bare-faced lies as the Remain campaign. Demonstrable confirmed lies – 500,000 job losses promised for the year after a Leave vote being only one. “There will never be an EU army” looks like being another to add to the long long list. Luckily, unlike millions, I was not taken in by them.
Interesting ECJ case this week to rule if A50 can be revoked unilaterally by UK. Expect wailing from the Remainiacs if they say it can’t. Saying it CAN be revoked will of course invite any EU leader (Mr Orban for example) to invoke A50 purely as a negotiating ploy safe in the knowledge he can then revoke it later – so the guess is they will say it can’t. In that case, if the EU27 have to agree also, then the price of staying in skyrockets as they wheel out their assorted demands on fishing etc.
November 27, 2018
I read yesterday that UK water supply could be threatened by a delay in essential chemicals from the EU post no-deal Brexit.
Whilst I can’t imagine why EU manufacturers would wish to cease supplying us, and we have no ambition to hold things up our side, it does raise the question of why the country doesn’t have its own supply of these chemicals, as a matter of national security.
Is there an obligation on water companies to have contingency plans?
November 27, 2018
More idiotic scare stories from the Climate Alarmist BBC and the appalling Met office today. Plus loads of idiotic reporting on graduate pay. As usual confusing cause and effect. (in general graduates earn more because they were brighter in the first place) not a result of their degree study. They also fail to take account of the circa £50K debt plus circa £2K in interest PA incurred by getting the degree or the three years loss of earning and job experience.
As the BBC reports it (unquestioningly as usual):
“Women are much more likely than men to get an increase in earnings from going to university, says an analysis of salaries at the age of 29. The study, from the Department for Education and Institute for Fiscal Studies, says women with a degree earn 28% more than non-graduate women. Men with degrees earn an average of 8% more than non-graduates.”
For a few professions clearly a degree makes sense. But we surely send at least double the numbers to university often for totally worthless degrees. Confusing cause and effect is a favorite activity of irrational BBC reporters. Invariably with arts degrees.
November 27, 2018
We can but hope the remoaner alarmists trip themselves up with their glib and false stories.
The way to fight against lies and falsehoods is to demonstrate the true nature of such stories and also what drives the people behind them… IF ONLY WE HAD A RATIONAL AND HONEST PRESS MEDIA, that would help – It just means we have to work harder at denoncing the lies.
A good number of decent people can already see the game-plan of the remoaners, which is defeat for the UK – WE just have to make sure we keep our message pure and clean.
November 27, 2018
Dr Redwood, you are of course correct, but irrelevantly so. PM May is being left in place and given two weeks to cajole, threaten, MPs to back her great deal or else. She stays in place looking like an underdog fighting off the attacks for the sake of the UK, she gets the media coverage accordingly. The withdrawal agreement (or a Norway plan B) will go through, there is no exit, there is no democracy, there will be no UK. Whilst your efforts are admirable a democratic UK is lost.
November 27, 2018
According to your colleague and ex deputy prime minister Damian Green (radio 5 yesterday at about 6:15) we can not leave without a deal because we are not members of the WTO.
If this is what he believes, no wonder your government got into such a mess in their negotiations with the EU.
November 27, 2018
I cannot, for the life of me, see our MPs voting No Deal. They’ll all cave.
If they can overlook grown men posturing as schoolboys in classrooms to placate the EU then they’ll accept May’s fudge.
(You’ve lost the Daily Mail btw. That’s what dragging this out so long has enabled Remain to do.)
November 27, 2018
The one good thing about this meaningful vote is that we will know the folk who need turfing out at any subsequent General Election.
November 27, 2018
False forecasts rank alongside fake news as a primary tool to attempt to fool the public. We saw another trumpeted yesterday by the BBC on the extremes of global warming to be experienced in 50 years time. This was the lead item, distracting attention from Mrs May’s more immediate difficulties. I think many people, but not all, have now rumbled her project fear alarms. Her claims will, for them, even turn out to be counter productive.
November 27, 2018
I’d like to know what benefits Project Fear believe the EU has ever delivered to the UK. Never mind predicting financial disaster ..throughout the entire period of becoming enmeshed in Common Market, EEC, EU etc etc we have lurched from one painful situation to another culminating in the shameful débâcle in 2008. The plan..the project..the EU was NEVER about finance or delivering nice lives. It has always been about political integration ( that is why they do not care that the Euro is a failed currency),the transfer of wealth to a few ( big business included)and POWER. Why is our countryside infested with windmills (!!!)? Could it be because they “ provide” a form of interdependent power that ties the EU even more closely together? NOT because the power is “green” or cheap or efficient.
This pot-holed,shabby,sovietised country shrieks of conquest and 45 years of life beneath the iron fist of Brussels.
And yet still the politicians try to fool us. They should read the comments in the newspapers and WAKE UP.
November 27, 2018
I see we have started a ‘rescue’ mission for illegal aliens crossing the English Channel. In other words we are helping them across just like we did in the Med.
No doubt Mrs May will see this as another success. How much longer are you going to support her Mr Redwood?
November 27, 2018
Iranians who are in Europe because an eastern European state (Moldova?) decided to offer visa free entry to Iranians for six months.
Schengen plus freedom of movement plus EU members not thinking through the consequences for other members. Truly a match that only Juncker and Tusk can think works.
November 28, 2018
Serbia-because Iran gave them diplomatic backing over ,I think,the Kosovo issue.
Getting involved in East European politics is not something that any westerner should do!
November 27, 2018
Mrs. May’s draft Withdrawal Agreement is so bad that even pro EU hardened remainers cannot accept the UK becoming a vassal state with no exit clause.
So far from settling the matter, Mrs. May’s/the EU’s proposal would ensure that trade negotiations go on forever as the EU would have absolutely no incentive to conclude an agreement whilst we are forced by this agreement to continue to accept directives, rules and regulations and make payments to the EU without representation.
Mrs. May’s and the EU’s intransigence to consider any alterations to the “deal” has managed to make a “no deal” (clean break) look attractive to not only the leavers but also many remainers, who although they wanted to be a member of the EU, are not prepared to accept a never-ending vassal status.
Remainers may even be finally seeing the EU in its true light.
November 27, 2018
The leave vote was never about money and this is what the Remainers don’t understand. They seem to live in a world of me, me, me. Older people voted leave for their children and grandchildren. Many could see where the EU is headed and the catastrophic consequences of the loss of democracy. May’s deal is not Brexit. It’s a leap into the abyss.
November 27, 2018
As with supposed man made climate change, islands disappearing, ten years to save the world etc.
Met Office again yesterday, we are in the last chance saloon!
November 27, 2018
A Sedgwick. I can remember being told we only had ten years to save the planet when I took my daughter to Disney world when she was 5 years old. She’s now 33.
November 28, 2018
‘A Sedgwick. I can remember being told we only had ten years to save the planet when I took my daughter to Disney world when she was 5 years old. She’s now 33.’
That was/is probably correct. If the proper measures were taken 28 years ago (better in 1960) then perhaps things would be better, so by doing nothing the world is more rapidly dying and not being saved but it is not obvious to casual sight and thinking.
November 27, 2018
May is under the spell of the Civil service. I’m trying to understand the mind set.
It feels to me like she is a conformist who does not believe in popular democracy or parliamentary democracy or even cabinet democracy.
It all seems to get in the way of her need to confirm with the civil service.
November 27, 2018
Javelin..May is going to bring the house down on top of us all..she is just setting things up for a heavy defeat and then she’ll plough on regardless for the crash out in March. Either way she can’t lose because with the crash she’ll be giving the people what they voted for..the tory ERG and Ultras won’t have anything to complain about because the road to trading by WTO rules will be the remaining option. She’ll retire then to the Lords and leave the rest to Boris or Raab or DD..just wait and see.
November 27, 2018
It’s not about the economy it’s about self-determination and having the freedom to govern ourselves and make our own decisions.
It is so we can know, elect and remove at regular intervals those who decide the policies on taxation, laws, immigration and use of our assets etc..
Despite being given a stiff warning by the PM, the Chancellor, the EU funded BBC, the EU funded CBI, the POTUS, the Governor of the BoE, the Archbishop of Canterbury, the banks, the corporates etc. that a vote to leave (not even leaving) would have a disastrous effect on our economy our country still voted to leave.
Freedom is worth more than a few pieces of silver.
November 27, 2018
For this reason we should just go to WTO rules so that it can be clearly demonstrated whether we were right or wrong to leave without an agreement- we shouldn’t have too long to wait to see the results coming in- it will probably start with a trend, a trend in our fortunes upwards or a trend downwards?
November 27, 2018
Let’s face it John. We are going to see more and more of this as time goes on. The irony of it is that it’s our own PM that is giving out all the wrong signals. If you can’t rely on your own party which represents your country giving positive messages then you’re done for as a country. Trump gets slagged off but at least he is positive about the qualities the USA has to offer and can glean. We have become such a nonentity that we have shown the world we can’t manage without some other EU country holding our hand. We had the chance of a lifetime and we’ve blown it. Reading your blogs filled me with hope but they have been dashed and there isn’t much point in going on now. I have an awful feeling MP’s will pass this WA in parliament. Voting is the only way people can let their governments know how they feel and, oh boy, will they do that at the next election!!
November 27, 2018
Mr Redwood, on the growth forecast front, there is another trap being prepared that we need to be aware of. As a result of the completely baseless claims of catastrophe if we ‘crash out’ or ‘fall off a cliff’, our useless government has been encouraging the massive stockpiling of supplies of everything from parts for aero-engines to pharmaceuticals. This may be one reason why our economy has been performing so well in the last few months. When after March 2019, everyone sees that the cliff-edge is a total illusion, this stock will reduce, giving our economy a one-off negative shock. This will be blamed on Brexit – just watch
November 27, 2018
You’re right. Remainers never seem to be able to come up with an argument as to why, exactly, we should wish to remain shackled. They can’t tell us what is to be admired about this ‘organisation’.
Doesn’t it seem obvious now, even to its most ardent admirers, that the EU’s leaders are not honourable? That they do not wish us to stick with them because they care about our well-being? That they would like to see the UK suffer for its presumption in wishing to escape from their clutches? That they only want us for what we can pour into the EU’s ever-gaping maw?
Why do remainers (like Andy) think they welcome us into their fold with anything else but avaricious glee?
November 27, 2018
The problem that William Hague has telling people they have to back TM is we don’t trust him. The spokespeople for agreeing to this are all the stringent anti-brexit people and I think that tells people everything about the deal.
May is going to bring this Country on to its knees in the next three weeks, the tightening is being felt.
How can Corbyn be worse at least he’s completely belligerent and wouldn’t be walked over by the EU that’s what I’m hearing. Corbyn doesn’t trouble the working class small c conservative voters. He is only a concern to people with businesses, middle-class taxpayers, property owners and shareholders.
November 27, 2018
One of the major problems, and we saw it again with Lidington on the TV this morning is that all of this seems down to trust because he/ Theresa May refuse to give answers in the specifics, therefore it is correct to assume they have none.
Why should we trust anyone who firstly gave away our money without a word of negotiation happening, entrusted the negotiations to a rabid europhile unelected civil servant whist deceiving the appointed elected Secretary of State, shared the Chequers Agreement with the German Chancellor before her own Cabinet and then bouncing them with umpteen pages of opaque legalise?
Lost her second Brexit Secretary because he could see what we were agreeing to was rubbish,continues to be blind to the views of such honourable and informed members as yourself and the wider electorate whilst being oblivious to and once again refusing to comment on the obvious crumbling of her positions from the Lancaster House speech through Leave means Leave and No Deal is better than a Bad Deal, we will be leaving the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ etc.
Tell her and her getting smaller by the hour supporters plus the pathetic spineless ‘pizza five’ that we are far stronger and resilient than ever they think and indeed are they, and no amount of Project Fear threats or BS will intimidate us so they might as well give up on that now.
November 27, 2018
“THE WRONG THING TO DO ABOUT ANY CIRCUMSTANCE OR SITUATION IS TO DO NOTHING”
You know, I’m sick to death of remoaner lies and deceit – we need to show them that we really do car about our country
For a start, I will play very loudly:
‘LAND OF HOPE AND GLORY’
– That will rattle a few cages
November 28, 2018
Remainers care about the country; everyone cares because it’s our country. What kind of moronic statement is that? It’s just that we’ve moved on from the Boer War era. Brexit’s just for old, angry people…it’s a pathetic project – produced by a collision of fantasy, senility and stupidity.
November 28, 2018
What nonsense – Most remoaners only care about their startrek dreamworld, that they visualise the EU to be – They lack any sense of reality, and see the EU through rose coloured glasses… They will get a very rude awakening when the EU starts to make its influence felt and reveals it’s true nature, that even those most in love with this oppressive project called the EU will cry out like babies that they were deceived.
I hope nobody has to suffer that, but if May gets her way then you will indeed regret your lack of common sense.
November 27, 2018
We’ve just finished reviwing this so-called Deal, and discovered it may actually impact and reduce our export trade (predominantly outside the EU after the EUVAT debacle) by giving the EU total control over these agreements. I suspect many other small or micro firms are going to encounter the same issues, especially with certain upcoming EU legislation.
If this ‘deal’ goes through, we are starting to make contingency arrangements to relocate the business overseas. I am extremely disappointed in the government that put us in this position, and place the blame entirely on Ms. May.
So much for being a better deal than Remain or WTO.
November 27, 2018
It is asserted by Continuity Remain – I heard Gina Miller say it – that “many” members of the WTO have “turned down” the UK’s proposed tariff schedule. Is this true? I wasn’t aware we had published one?
November 27, 2018
Richard1,
https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/happening-tariff-quotas-uk-wto/ This is just a blog, but does a good job of explaining – you do need to read it all though. Basically the quota tariff part of WTO.submission giving the division of quotas between EU and UK is precedent setting and hence expected concerns have been raised and will be watched. Trade will though carry on, while concerns are addressed, also this issue is only a small.part of overall WTO submission.
November 27, 2018
Richard
Well what else can you expect of Gina Miller ? the best thing is to ignore the woman, don’t encourage her a public platform in any way.
Characters like her are addicted to publicity, and need to shove their stick in the spokes, regardless of which way the wheel turns. It’s all about high-profiling one’s self as far as she’s concerned.
Nobody I know holds Ms Miller in any kind of esteem whatsoever, and most I know regard her as just another pissant jumping on the remain band wagon. (legitimate word JR – means insignificant person.)
November 27, 2018
Those who voted Leave made a choice for the better. Losers moan & prophesy their imaginations of doom. Truth’s bright white light exposes their fantasy. Their bases are less sound than the cries of bacteria being bleached as we reduce grime & spruce up our capability as an independent nation.
We shall assess & respond to whatever emerges, making high quality choices & taking the best actions in the interests of our people.
November 27, 2018
Discovering you have been played by propaganda is like Newton discovering gravity.
Nobody questioned why things always go downwards – they just did.
People – up until now – did not question the Remain-centred reports that they were seeing on the BBC. Now, some friends I know are starting to realise there is some force being exerted on them.
It seems that less people are swallowing this propaganda.
November 27, 2018
They just bang on about what could go wrong, and assume the rest of the EU will behave as badly as possible towards us.
==========
In or out, the EU will behave badly to anyone who doesn’t do as they are told.
November 27, 2018
“In or out, the EU will behave badly to anyone who doesn’t do as they are told.”
Unless it’s the French.
November 27, 2018
The above points by JR are quite pertinent.
In the HoC yesterday Mrs May stated that we legally we the EU £39B.
She therefore must be asked to produce this legal evidence, and who provided it.
Further questions that need answering are:
We need a breakdown of the £39B to show the component claims.
By who, when and what for were the commitments entered into.
When did they appear as liabilities on our treasury’s balance sheet, and if not, why not.
Under what treaties are we legally bound to make these payments?
Why is Mrs May relying on a legal interpretation that suits the EU and not on the legal interpretation provided by our HoL which says we legally owe nothing. In representing that UK, she should surely be arguing the other way around. She needs to be called to explain herself.
Most of us never heard of these supposed commitments until after the referendum, so we are suspicious about their provenance.
Why did the Remain campaign (who tell us they are so clever) not tell us about these commitments as part of project fear?
In this matter I admit to being an ignorant Leaver, perhaps questions can be raised in the HoC to provide evidence and so enlighten me.
Further we have paid the EU (in the form of reduced rebate) to renegotiate CAP, which never happened. For non-delivery we should be reimbursed. If we are not, then that precedent would suggest we cannot expect anything for our £39B if it were to be paid.
November 27, 2018
In the HoC yesterday Mrs May stated that we legally owe the EU £39B.
November 27, 2018
I watched Theresa May’s statement and the debate and I was disappointed that no MP took her to task over her false claim that her deal ends freedom of movement.
She used to say that it would end in March 2019, or on March 29th 2019, when we left the EU; but now instead of emphasising the date it will happen she emphasises the finality of that event, that free movement will end “once and for all”, as if there have been previous attempts to kill this monster but it has always come back to life.
And the reason for that change of language is that earlier this year she agreed that free movement of persons should continue at least until the end of the so-called “transition period”, as reported for example on March 1st here:
https://neweuropeans.net/article/2252/free-movement-continue-through-transition-period
“The UK Government has given in to the EU’s demand that free movement should continue through the transition period.”
Therefore in a truly Orwellian twist the legally binding part of her “deal”, the withdrawal agreement, does not END freedom of movement as she claims, instead it does the exact opposite and PROLONGS freedom of movement which would otherwise end.
And there was one point in the debate when this inconvenient truth slipped out, when she replied to a question from the Tory MP Jonathan Djanogly about a possible extension of the so-called “transition period” during which nothing would change:
http://bit.ly/2DLSzYJ
and inadvertently used the word “continue”:
http://bit.ly/2QojAZ8
“… free movement would almost certainly be required to CONTINUE in the event of an extended implementation period …”
So we know for sure that under the legally binding first part of her Brexit “deal” the free movement of persons would not come to end, instead it would continue more or less as now at least until the end of the so-called “transition period”, if that did ever come to an end; and after that it would be entirely a question of what had been agreed between the EU and the UK in the negotiations for the future relationship which are envisaged in the “jam tomorrow” second part, the non-binding political declaration:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759021/25_November_Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_framework_for_the_future_relationship_between_the_European_Union_and_the_United_Kingdom__.pdf
Which specifically states in its paragraph 4 that:
“The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each Party … ”
including for the EU’s part “the indivisibility of the four freedoms”.
Accepting that would indeed “take us back to square one”, back to the period around the referendum when the EU was saying very clearly that we could not expect to “cherry pick” by continuing to make use of three freedoms while rejecting the fourth.
November 27, 2018
Corrections: the first Hansard link should be:
http://bit.ly/2DLSMey
while the second should be:
http://bit.ly/2DLSzYJ
November 27, 2018
Mr Redwood,
Of course long term forecasts have to be handled with care because there are too many unpredictable elements that can never be integrated in a model, unless one would be modeling the future of a completely autarchic, reliably authoritarian governed country where technology , environment and demographics are predictable.
However the dog whistle I hear here is that experts trying to model a future (subject to defined assumptions in this case) are irrelevant and anyway, what they predict here is hadly dramatic.
I am curious about reliable*) modeling (ie by Treasury and BoE) of the proposed withdrawal agreement (ex future relationship because that is still extremely uncertain) and a few hypothetical alternatives for a future relationship (eg no UKEUFTA after all, a Norway type and a much closer to membership version “BRINO”). The hard part would of course be to estimate a range of outcomes wide enough to capture business uncertainty about quantity and direction of capital expenditure.
November 27, 2018
Mr Redwood ,
forgot to add my footnote! * reliable: produced by British civil servants (or in the case of BoE a close equivalent) without a partisan or commercoal interest and having access to the best data and academic expertise where necessary. Of course conspiracy theorists and politicians would disagree.
November 27, 2018
Ah well, the Remainers are going to be using the same tricks as the Climate Change folks use to such great effect. Pretty much any complicated system is noisy, especially if you measure it fairly accurately and take lots of data points. Climate is noisy and jigs about all over the place; economics involves people, and anything with any biological input into it is absolutely guaranteed to be a noisy system.
No climate change scientist or Remainer is going to stand up and say “This graph is noisy, but if we apply a fairly substantial smoothing factor to it to remove everything but the big inputs… You’ll see that all the alarming bits get smoothed away and the irrational panic that I was using to justify my funding entirely disappears… oh bugger!”
November 27, 2018
“She shouldn’t be touring the country selling her plan to the British people but listening to those we represent. She should be our representative in Brussels not the EU’s representative in UK.” Steve Double MP
Hear hear.
November 27, 2018
Bob
and on the subject of May’s ‘tour’…….I’d bet good money she’ll steer well clear of not just people on the street, but absolutely won’t dare show her face in any Northern fishing community.
I’d challenge the woman to get out of the car in Hull or Grimsby and see what happens, I’d give her less than 10 seconds. Even in the HoC if you care to notice she has severe difficulty looking anyone in the eye.
November 27, 2018
What amazes me is that, even after 2.5 years when, at first hand, we’ve been able to observe the E.U. in all its dreadful glory and finally have been able to see the fruits of all their devious plans (there never was what I would call a negotiation) to lock the U.K. into what must be the worst deal ever, there are still some here in Britain who would prefer to stay in the E.U. than to leave. Even if they have no feelings of loyalty to their country, do they have no feeling of humiliation by what is happening to them?
November 28, 2018
You are obsessed with forecasts. While the predicted 2016 recession didn’t materialize, the fact remains that business investment has been very low, the great export boom you predicted just fizzled out, and inflation has caused damage to personal finances. The recession prediction was due to an expectation that people would stop spending after the referendum. But people didn’t – simply because Brexit was over 2 years away. All predictions for a No deal outcome show a very bad picture. Your fixed position – that only good can come from Brexit with no pain – is frankly ridiculous. And the City of London – do you think they’ve got a good outcome from the negotiations?
November 28, 2018
These would be the same forecasts that showed that only 4% of businesses would be affected by VATMOSS. It was actually 96%, because the figures came from the CBI and FSB, which don’t have the businesses affected as members, so didn’t factor them in.
These new figures are receiving data from the same sources, and the forecasters haven’t reached out to groups that represent the remainder – at least not the ones I am a member of. Therefore I suspect a similar level of accuracy.
November 27, 2018
I ask a number of questions in relation to the withdrawal agreement. Answers short and accurate please, no opinions.
1. Mrs May claims that the £39billion is legally owed to the EU. Others claim we owe nothing. Please provide a breakdown of all it’s component parts and it’s legality.
2.when is the £39 billion due.
3.At what point in time or at what point in the sequence of events within th WA can we the Uk sign trade agreements with other nations.
4. When does our border close, and new rules come into place. Is it on 1sr april 2019 or is the timing conditional on events within the WA.
5.What level of ongoing payments to the EU have been agreed for the period of the WA.
Mrs May has not offered any clarity on any of the above. Is it all in the small print which she is glossing over.
November 28, 2018
I suggest you sit down and read the thing. Some of your questions are easy: during the transition period nothing will change wrt access and obligations. Borders do not close, obviously, otherwise no one could go in or out. You can sign whatever trade agreements you want but not implement them while in transition. Obviously prospective trade partners (trade does not require an agreement of course but is supposed to reduce friction and exclude competitors) will be rather cautious in dealing with a country not quite sure what its own future trade regime will be (especially regulatory aspects). To answer Mr Trump’s remarks: (1) Britain already trades with the US and does so as a EU member (2) until the end of transition UK will be a member of the customs union that all EU members belong to (as well as Turkey) and not be able to implement trade agreements that would violate the customs union rules. Most likely, if Parliament approves present proposal (a bit of an if but the signs are getting better, especially within Labour) the transition will extend beyond Mr Trump’s first term so he may not be able to boast about a great trade deal (from a US perspective) during his (still possible thou heavily contested) campaign.
November 27, 2018
JR
“Prior to the referendum they forecast …house price falls ”
Could you explain to me how house prices could have been affected by Brexit or was that just another one of those claims Brexiteers latched on to?
Our house prices are ridiculous because of individual greed encouraged by the banks, regarding houses as financial investments rather than places to live in. What are they REALLY worth to us unless we want to live on the streets?
November 27, 2018
Margaret.
Remain’s project fear did predict a house price crash as a result of us daring to vote leave.
I’m glad you find it as ridiculous as I did at the time.
November 28, 2018
I have four children in their thirties. House prices crashing is not something that I fear. It would help young adults get into the housing market. It would also result in investment going into businesses, as opposed to people preening themselves at dinner parties as to how much more their house is worth and how clever they are.
November 28, 2018
A housing market crash is unlikely to happen with low interest rates, low levels of unemployment and increases in our population of several hundred thousands every year.
November 27, 2018
Government must raise the Question:. What goods that we receive from EU can we manufacture in Britain?
This would help to counterbalance any losses we may have on leaving with No deal.
I am surprised Theresa May was not asked in Commons how much EU has offered in order to have free access to the United Kingdom markets. After all they supply some £60+billion/yr more goods than we supply them.
November 27, 2018
The one assumption of Project Fear that I can believe to be true is that set out in your final sentence: the rest of the EU will behave as badly as possible to us.
November 27, 2018
Listening to the politicians still discussing i am amazed at some attitudes. They talk as if we have choice between different type of deals. We have all of these red lines in place which stop us taking up other options plus the EU commission officials have now largely gone on christmas break..so no time now..looks very like we are leaving to WTO rules in March.
November 27, 2018
Brussels is behaving as badly as possible towards the UK – they are trying to prevent other member states from following us out.
Their offer is only their first offer, it is not the last and final offer. Outline a few tweaks to it and send it back, leaving lost of new items for them to delete so they feel they have won something. Withold all payments until it is done to our parliament’s satisfaction – their biggest fear if the British House of Commons.
November 27, 2018
“Brussels is behaving as badly as possible towards the UK – they are trying to prevent other member states from following us out”
Another one of those daft Brexiteer claims to make them feel better. Not a single EU country has voted for a Leave party since Brexit, not even Greece. The general view is surprise that we can vote to leave what has become the world wealthiest trading bloc. Specially at a time when so many other nations have banded together to create their own trading alliances.
Few are sorry to see us go as they were generally fed up with us constantly demanding opt outs and special treatments.
November 28, 2018
Have you not noticed the rise in popularity of eurosceptic political parties in Italy Greece Hungary and even Germany?
November 27, 2018
It reminds us that Remain never have a positive case for membership of the EU or for a close economic partnership with it. They just bang on about what could go wrong, and assume the rest of the EU will behave as badly as possible towards us.
But May listens to them and believes it.
Listen to us? No chance. She never has and never will
Big business only want what is easiest for them.What about all those small and medium businesses that never deal with the EU. As usual we count for nothing
November 27, 2018
Pseudosceptic William Hague tells us to support Theresa May’s “deal”, that’s enough to warn us that it’s just another load of mendacious Tory rubbish … he used to say “In Europe but not run by Europe”, now it’s “Out of Europe but still run by Europe”.
November 27, 2018
According to Theresa May’s newly recruited cheerleaders at the Daily Mail, the financial services sector of the UK economy:
“… employs 2.2million people in the UK, generating a surplus of £68billion for Britain in the past financial year.”
and they don’t bother to mention how few of those employees have anything much to do with the EU, or indeed with any significant international business, in their work, or where that surplus is generated.
This is from over a year ago:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/10/31/the-banks-negative-view-of-brexit/#comment-897860
and after quoting similar statistics from lobby group TheCityUK it points out that the claimed surplus exceeds the gross exports to the EU by a factor of three – and that is the GROSS exports to the EU, not any NET positive balance – and in the worst case scenario job losses in that sector could amount to 0.3% of jobs in the UK economy.
November 27, 2018
Government must raise the Question:. What goods that we receive from EU can we manufacture in Britain?
This would help to counterbalance any losses we may have on leaving with No deal.
I am surprised Theresa May was not asked in Commons how much EU has offered in order to have free access to the United Kingdom markets. After all they supply some £60+billion/yr more goods than we supply them.
November 27, 2018
Well, that last assumption is correct, the cuddly EU will definitely be horrid to us.
Now we learn we will all die of thirst because we import water treatment chemicals from France, and the French company concerned will instantly renege on its contract and damage its profits by refusing to sell to us anymore, and no one else anywhere in the world makes these chemicals and it is impossible for us to make them and the Civil Serpents have sat on their hands for two years weeping and wailing and just don’t know what to do about it. Were this fanciful scenario to be true what a damning indictment of a ruling class that would leave us wide open to ruin by putting a staple of life in the hands of others.
I dread to think what would have become of Europe in 1939 if this lot of wet blankets had been running the country then.
November 27, 2018
If one listens to the traffic reports it soon becomes clear that the holdups are caused by accidents. These are not caused by the EU, and have to be dealt with by the police and other emergency services. These are the people who need to be more especially prepared.
November 27, 2018
and not forgetting the 39 billion to be paid to the EU and more than likely ongoing payment out of your taxes to secure a deal for big businesses with the EU, ongoing payment out your taxes would be about 15 billion a year, 3 billion more than you pay now and inside a customs union for big businesses, fish, VAT, company tax otherwise no deal.
November 27, 2018
The Met Office is forecasting that a storm will hit tomorrow.
They may be wrong – it could be warm and sunny. It is a forecast, a prediction.
If they get it wrong then they are not traitors. They are not bad at their jobs. It just means that forecasts are not always right.
The same applies to Brexit. The economic forecasts – nearly all of which show that we will be significantly poorer – may be wrong. But they may not.
Similarly, Mr Redwood, your forecasts may be right. But they may not. I have asked before and have never had an answer. What if you are wrong?
I’m not is not an adequate answer. You are human and like all humans you have made mistakes in your life and in your career.
What happens if you are wrong this time – as you very well might be?
November 27, 2018
None of the forecasts say we will be significantly poorer.
What they claim is growth will be a tiny bit less over the next 10 or 15 years.
Maybe.
November 27, 2018
Is it ever sunny in your life and good weather?
zorro
November 28, 2018
Andy, I live in an area with a very volatile climate, and for various reasons I check out the weather forecast every day.
The first forecast site I used for several months was, I eventually realised, frequently inaccurate, and I mentioned this to a local friend with a professional interest in meteorology. He recommended I use a different site, which I have found to be virtually 100% accurate.
I apply the same principle to economists and politicians, which is why I continue to read this blog rather than virtually any other.
November 28, 2018
The Met Office are regularly bad at their jobs and they should be audited because if you could guess better than they do their predications they shouldn’t be in existence. Just how often are they correct, they predicted rain all throughout this summer’s drought.
November 28, 2018
Jeremy Corbyn’s brother is well known to be much more accurate than the Met office – that’s why he is paid substantially by those who need accurate forecasts. Does Jeremy share his ability I wonder – probably not.
November 27, 2018
Just to be helpful, the government has set up an information/propaganda website:
https://brexitdealexplained.campaign.gov.uk/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx5W66PXx3gIVCud3Ch38xg74EAAYASAAEgKikvD_BwE
and I understand that all the efforts which it previously did not expend in defending its official policy against attack have been carefully saved up and there is now a 70-strong team ready to fight to the death in defence of Theresa May’s “deal” …
Anyway it is useful to look at the “jam tomorrow” part to which she constantly refers as though the jam has already been made and is in sealed jars on the table waiting for us to emerge from the so-called “transition period”, during which there will be no transition, and claim it as our own jam, the jam of our heart’s desire:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759021/25_November_Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_framework_for_the_future_relationship_between_the_European_Union_and_the_United_Kingdom__.pdf
And that makes clear in its paragraph 4 that an end to the freedom of movement and the UK having its own independent trade policy are still matters for negotiation, they are not matters which have already been settled by this non-binding declaration:
“4. The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms. It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom.”
And yet listen to this despicable liar and cheat speaking here today:
https://news.sky.com/story/live-theresa-may-goes-on-tour-as-she-tries-to-sell-brexit-deal-11564792
“What the political declaration makes clear is that we will have an independent trade policy, we will be able to strike trade deals around the rest of the world … ”
Nope, what it makes clear is that the EU knows we would like to have an independent trade policy, but they insist on maintaining the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of their four freedoms, and some “balance” may emerge during futrue negotiations – which hardly takes us any further forward than we were on June 24th 2016 before negotiations started, “back to square one”.
November 27, 2018
Agreed. She is just a liar. I wrote to her today on her No 10 e -mail account to explain why she cannot be believed and that her withdrawal agreement does not meet the expectations of the Referendum or promises in the Tory Manifesto or various speeches. I also told her that a British Prime Minister who goes behind the backs of Ministers to collude with Civil Servants, Foreign Leaders and Eu counterparts BEFORE ambushing her own Cabinet at Chequers is not fit to hold public office. Especially as she repeated the same process to publicise the Withdrawal agreement, again, at the 11th hour! She should consider her position and go!
I’m sure others from this site and elsewhere may want to comment and let her know what they think!
November 27, 2018
I see UKIP MEPs and joining SDP party and leaving UKIP.
November 27, 2018
Real damage has been caused to social relations, with Remainers, MPs and Campaigners, dragging this out when a quick exit from the EU should have been the logical option given the result. Remainers, who have no faith in Britain at all, and who seem to think we can’t live without the EU, have created a toxic environment. Through their fear propaganda have created acrimony within families, in the workplace and pretty much everywhere else. Yet they continue to stoke the fires and push for an undemocratic People’s Vote. We must learn from this and design legislation to ensure that Referendum results in future cannot be challenged, re-run or overturned. Remainers have run out of road, so we can expect some last-gasp vileness from them in the next few months.
November 27, 2018
They are using the wrong yardstick. We aim at maximising growth in GDP per capita, not GDP, because living standards are related to it. If handled right, immigration control can fit in with this goal.
Incidentally, I learnt something from Jimmy Greaves’ autobiography. Seasonal jobs like potato picking used to be done by British youngsters. It could happen again.
November 28, 2018
Yes, when I was 15 I worked on the ‘Roll-a-Penny’ stall on Worthing pier, stuck artificial berries on Xmas trees, worked as a barista on a Gaggia coffee machine in a coffee house, at 16 kept a cement mixer going over 6 weeks (heavy work for me), and worked on the council deckchair operation at the beach and more…
Don’t forget the ‘bob -a- job work done from age 11 or so -probably a minus GDP work.
November 27, 2018
What will 20% of poor people do and yourselves if the EU take control of VAT and bring in a meat tax, the medium rate of the VAT is 23% in the EU with no discount for domestic fuels and water along with children clothing and other things, how will you manage then and it could be more than 23%, this money will go to your gov but what will they spend it on, are you looking forward to that brother and sisters, along with rises in company tax to 25 %, will that mean stagnant wages apart from the top 10 % of wage earners.
November 27, 2018
I despair for our country if this unconditional surrender to the EU ever gets passed in Parliament.
Neither Napoleon nor Hitler could do it but it would seem a British Prime Minister could willingly hand over the Country with the Mother of all Parliaments to a foreign dictatorship.
November 27, 2018
JR,
It is unfortunate the argument on both sides have come down to simple critics about forecasts .
The gravity of the situation is much more complex and if we do not get a separate free trade agreemtn with the EU , if no deal is the scenario going forward, we are gong to have to sue the WTO rules about free trade across the board. Those are the simple WTO ruls and neither our agriculture or our manufacturing industry is competitive enough to survive this sot of onslaught.
So the simple solutions which is much more than just the cost of tariffs, is not what we are currently ready for , neither in terms of legislation nor in terms of practical solutions, if no deal is done.
That is really the core problem an not all £39 billion pounds will be saved whatever we do.
The seriousness of this problem is what should be discussed not whether one forecsast from remain or ERG is right or wrong.
November 27, 2018
The forecasts by remainers of how planes will not be flying, of how there will be shortages of medicines and food, of how there will be long queues of lorries at the ports, job loses, more expensive roaming charges, EU visas etc. are dependent upon how nasty the EU wants to treat us if we refuse to sign Mrs. May’s/the EU’s current Withdrawal Agreement in order not to become a vassal state of the EU.
To put these anxieties in perspective, they are nothing compared to those faced by my parents’ generation in their quest for the UK to remain a free country.
November 27, 2018
“More false forecasts” – strange that you should use the word ‘false’ when ‘fake’ is the universally accepted word used now.
November 27, 2018
@Lookalike
They have different, albeit nuanced, meanings, so they are not necessarily interchageable words.
November 27, 2018
False is not factual, untrue. Fake is not real. The forecasts actually happened but their results do not reflect whatever is thought to be true. So I would conclude 1/ that JR is right in using this adjective, 2/ that Trump does not know about or does not make the difference.
November 27, 2018
If you reverse out the implicit annual gdp in the NIESR forecast for the cost of Mays deal, vs HMT’s 7.7% over 15yrs….
The benefit of sacrificing our control over our future, being a laughing stock, for the pleasure of keeping her in office, is…
0.17% pa of gdp.
Or less than one third of the foreign aid budget.
November 27, 2018
Given that Remainers “assume the rest of the EU will behave as badly as possible towards us”, not an unreasonable assumption given how we are normally treated, witness James Dyson’s battle over vacuum testing. It always amazes me why they want to stay – perhaps they are masochists.
Also given the likelyhood that they will behave unreasonably, who seriously believes that we will be able to exit the Backstop without giving up either Northern Ireland, Gibraltar or our fishing grounds or worse still all three.
November 27, 2018
Claire Perry on the TV telling me I am evil for driving diesel.
Completely and utterly ridiculous.
Do the Conservatives even want anyone to vote for them?
November 27, 2018
I see that the Irish leader has told his 7 MPs in N Ireland, to go to London and vote for Mrs May deal.
November 27, 2018
Ian..not so..there is no way that Sinn Fein is going to get involved in British politics..must be more fake news
November 27, 2018
How long do we have to tolerate the torment being inflicted by this greasy, lying PM and her torrent of mendacious filth?
How low will she stoop in her attempt to undermine the people’s will on behalf of her EU masters
More to the point, when are you and your colleagues going to crush this imposter in our party?
We want our party back and we want our country back
Stop prevaricating and depose her
November 28, 2018
The problem is, Duncan, that there are many more like her in the Tory Party. I have resolved that, at the next general election, if the Conservative Party is led by ANY prp-European Tory Wet, I shall not be voting for it.
For too long, the Conservative Party has consisted of two wings that are full of mutual loathing. It’s high time that they split.
But let’s get the timing right. When the draft Withdrawal Agreement has been voted down, she will fall like a rotten apple.
November 27, 2018
Dear Mr Redwood,
The Withdrawal Agreement that Theresa May has negotiated means that the European Union has the power to implement policies more damaging to Britain than leaving the EU without a deal: The transition period, then the Back-stop (which we cannot leave unilaterally) means the EU could hang on to their nearly £100 billion trade surplus with Britain, be able to stop Britain cutting some taxes, able to mandate that VAT be increased -all indefinitely. Why would the EU offer Britain a trade deal that then becomes more dis-advantageous to them- they won’t!
Britain will also be spending £38 billion up-front followed by £10 billion annual payments net to the EU under the transition and backstop; that is money that could be spent on our cash-strapped Public Services: If anything could tip Britain into Recession in the early 2020’s it is likely to be the Provisions in the Withdrawal Agreement (become Final Deal)- and the power that gives the EU to screw Britain over!
You need, Sir to get your colleagues to put those extra letters in to Sir Graham Brady quickly. Theresa May is now a liability to Brexit and also to Conservatives’ electoral fortunes; her “Deal” is a bigger threat to the UK Economy than No Deal: I pray and hope that it is defeated decisively on 12th December.
We need a Patriotic Brexiteer in charge of Britain, one who tears up the “Deal” ,tells the EU theres No More Money for them, and who threatens a General Election on a Populist Programme if Labour try to frustrate a Proper Brexit- to bring Mr Juncker to the negotiating table with something attractive.
All the best as you- with your colleagues- try to rescue the direction of this country.
Ian Pennell
November 28, 2018
You are obsessed with forecasts. While the predicted 2016 recession didn’t materialize, the fact remains that business investment has been very low, the great export boom you predicted just fizzled out, and inflation has caused damage to personal finances. The recession prediction was due to an expectation that people would stop spending after the referendum. But people didn’t – simply because Brexit was over 2 years away. All predictions for a No deal outcome show a very bad picture. Your fixed position – that only good can come from Brexit with no pain – is frankly ridiculous. And the City of London – do you think they’ve got a good outcome from the negotiations?
November 28, 2018
It is typical of Remainers that when all their project fear forecasts fail to happen they are are just moved forward a few years into the future.
PS exports and growth and investment and employment levels are all still good despite much negative talk by remainers and negative economic policies by the Bank of England and Treasury.
November 28, 2018
Spread misinformation to deceive in order to have a gain is a criminal act of deception under the Thefts Act 1986. Knowing these forecasts are false and using them to deceive the Treasury Civil Servants and Minister are committing a crimes. Furthermore, these false forecasts have the added intention of handing sovereignty to a foreign power – Treason Act. Why is nothing being done?
November 28, 2018
Presumably this misinformation can be categorized as “fake news”?
November 28, 2018
Why dont you ask the Treasury for a breakdown of their calculations?
November 28, 2018
It seems Mr Carney’s credibility is shot. He announces that a “no deal” Brexit could lead to the pound falling 25% in his view. It promptly bounced 0.6 cents. There were ugly rumours of plots to trash the pound in the event of the draft submission being voted down. Perhaps someone should be thinking of who should replace Mr Carney. It is important that the Governor is seen to be credible.