This week’s news that Ukrainian forces have liberated an area of eastern Ukraine taken by Russia comes as welcome news in the West. The decision to support Ukraine against a murderous invasion has been backed by a supply of advanced Western weapons which have helped oppose the substantial Russian forces.
Ukrainian sources tell us Russian troops fled with low morale and in poor order, leaving vehicles and munitions behind. Russia claims it was a tactical consolidation that they ordered. All seem to agree Russia now controls less territory which looks like a Ukrainian advance. Ukraine is now reporting bad treatment of citizens under Russian rule.
This presumably means President Biden and the European allies will be encouraged by this and will continue to supply weapons, financial and other support to the Ukrainian state. The US has warned us to expect a long conflict. France and Germany want a negotiated peace. The Ukrainian success makes it unlikely Ukraine will offer to surrender territory to Russia. It poses the question what will Russia now do?
Putin watchers do not expect him to sue for peace or to give up his violent attempt to take over substantial parts of the country. He is fighting a military war with Ukraine and a sanctions and commercial war with the USA and her allies. Putin is using the gas weapon to try to split the European allies. He wants to dilute or reduce western support for Ukraine. He is using nuclear pressure against both Ukraine and the West through occupying a nuclear power station. He sometimes speculates about the use of more extreme weapons which would put an end to the Putin lie that he was liberating Ukrainian people.
His use of the gas tap has so far troubled western economies with massively higher gas prices, allowing him to collect substantial revenues whilst selling much less gas. This winter is going to be a difficult struggle both over trade including gas and for the forces seeking to win back lost territory.
I would be interested in your thoughts on what the West should now do. .
September 14, 2022
Good morning.
I confess that I have not been following this as it is a country which is far away and of little to no interest to me. The slow, drip, drip of another invasion by foreign people into my country being of more concern. Well, if not to my government, it is at least to me and those that care.
Despite the above, the news came across to me via a source that has been watching events and two things have emerged that, on the face of it seem contradictory.
1) Russia is yet to fully mobilise its military forces.
2) Russia is running out of military equipment and has asked both Iran and North Korea to ‘supply it with weapons.’
I cannot personally vouch for either claim but, if true this conflict is either about to get worse or, come to a sudden halt.
Either way, I hope the suffering on all sides comes to a close and we can then stop blaming Russia and President Putin for the mistakes to things such as energy policy our own governments have made.
September 14, 2022
+many
Very much so. Totally different story.
Methinks we are entering even stranger times of …well very much exactly like “1984” the book!
September 14, 2022
It WAS a slow drip, drip drip invasion into the UK; then it became a trickle; now it’s a flood.
One million visas were issued last year; 50,000 criminal migrants ferried-in over the past 18 months, with thousands more arriving every week.
I too care far more about this than Ukraine, a country which is not in NATO, is not a long-standing ally and is costing us a fortune in military equipment which we will have to pay to replace.
September 14, 2022
Corrupt Ukraine is of no strategic value to our country but appears to be of interest to the Biden family. France and Germany are correct to seek peace for a war Ukraine cannot win.
No action taken over China about Hong Kong, slavery, covid or colonisation of world.
Ran away from Afghanistan after 20 years abandoning people and all reasons to be there. Utterly pointless loss of life, limb and taxpayers’ money by Tory govt. unnecessary invasion of Libya by Tory party. Why did Truss give away £100 million to terrorist Taliban? I thought govt does not give bribes to terrorism?
Tory govt willingly gave away N.Ireland to EU without a cross word, shot being fired and Tory govt PM (x2) lied to public about true extent of the sell out deal.
JR, why is Ukraine more important than N.Ireland? Why is Ukraine more important than Afghanistan? I think the time has come for referenda as MPs cannot be trusted with key national decisions- ie spending and war.
September 14, 2022
I agree Hope! Our parliament has very poorly defended all British concerns. They seem to be totally under the thumb of some evil people. We must defeat that,
I personally do not care about any other country as they are only acting in their self interest. Time to look after ourselves as we are quite capable of doing
September 14, 2022
An excellent post Hope.
September 14, 2022
Dear Hope, If you think this is about a country far away of which we know little, and has no further significance for us, you might wonder why Sweden and Finland, for whom neutrality and not annoying Russia have long been articles of faith, quite quickly applied to join Nato. These were not knee-jerk reactions.
September 15, 2022
O,
You might wonder why Truss wanted to forcibly remove Russia from Crimea when her party and govt accepted the annexing of N.Ireland to the EU! Is she going to forcibly remove the EU?
The history of Ukraine, agreements by the west and internal Ukraine squabbling appears to have evaded your memory.
September 14, 2022
Much truth in this this alas.
September 14, 2022
This accords with my own view, having talked to relatives with 25 years of going to Ukraine and meeting Canadian Ukranians recently. It’s a corrupt country, even more so than Russia or the USA or UK, and has extremely violent and hateful politics and military. The so called democrat president is backed by an oligarch who owns much of the engineering industry and backed the militias. Before their election, he promised to bring a settlement to to divisions between the Russian speakers and the western Ukrainians. He did the opposite and before the war they had assembled a force for the retaking of the Russian parts and Crimea. A war with Russia was provoked. It’s time western politicians woke up to the reasons for their energy and inflation disaster.
September 15, 2022
My grandfather, 30 years in the British Army, was sent as Military Intelligence Officer (or whatever correct term is) to Spain during the Spanish Civil War (and was shot at by Communists – his driver in the vehicle they were in being shot and killed so he had strong views on this!) by the army under the orders of Churchill to gather as much information as possible as Churchill was considering sending the British Armed Forces into Spain.
That’s how seriously Churchill took Spain. It wasn’t just about Spain but the knock-on effect that Communism could have had on the rest of Europe. Although Ukraine isn’t exactly the same, it’s still not that much further than Spain, but more dangerous to us in a way, because Putin could then use Ukraine as a platform in which to invade the rest of Eastern Europe, bringing Eastern Europe back under Russian control. So we’d be returning to a Cold War situation but with an even more dangerous leaders than the Communist leaders of the Soviet era (bar Stalin). Putin isn’t just about restoring the old Soviet Empire but also disrupting the West, including the UK, as much as possible so as to assert the dominance of Russia in general – from the economy to international political influence in general. Something like that.
September 14, 2022
According to Steven Woolfe on the J H-B show this morning, every illegal migrant costs us £40,000 every year.
50,000+ have been ferried-in over the past 18 months. So that’s £2,000,000,000 EVERY YEAR which British taxpayers are expected to stump up.
And presumably that’s without factoring-in the costs of the criminal “justice” system when they offend or incarcerating them if they are jailed.
September 14, 2022
Do we ever follow up on those Visas, checking for overstayers? Checking if they are contributing the taxes that allowed the visa?
September 14, 2022
@ a-tracy “Do we ever follow up on those Visas” – Some hope! We do not even find and deport those who stay beyond expiry of their visas!
September 15, 2022
Donna: In just the last 2 weeks – Total 01/9 to 14/9 inclusive by channel boats only: 4056 / 96 boats with just under 4000 channel migrants during the 2 weeks prior to that.(MoD figures) Heavens knows where all these people are. Surely the situation is becoming more & more desperate by the day, I’m sure the public don’t know the half of it. Further, consider the separate issue per the BBC’s 03/8/22 article “Help house 10.000 Afghan refugees – Minister tells councils” ( & expecting an ongoing 500 arrivals each month ) Homes reported as already found for 7000 but in a letter seen by BBC at least another 2000 properties required for a remaining 10.500 with more than 500 4-bedroom / larger houses needed to accommodate larger families. Now look at the desperate call for landlords to offer up their rentable properties for housing contracts with a view to getting people out of hotels presumably. More & more of the housed people requiring help with their energy bills no doubt. This does not resemble progress in any way but just a continual treading of water.
September 14, 2022
I understand what you are saying. We are in the middle of a huge propaganda war as well as one of guns and bombs.
Some of the most level headed, undramatic and honest interviews on the issue I’ve seen are with academics/journalists and former politicians who were already in a sort of exile from Russia. They put our mainstream to shame with their fair appraisals, honesty and overall general knowledge.
Our politicians do not see what you refer to as an invasion. Neither do they see how two faced they are in rallying for other people’s right to not have their identity and culture come under the boot of someone else, while our own is being eroded at an alarming pace. Much is made of Russians being persecuted for not following the line ordered by Putin. Well here you can lose your job, even liberty, and face persecution for not following the mantras laid down by those running the show here on immigration, multi-culture, LGBTQXYZ++ etc. etc.
September 14, 2022
Russia *has* already mobilised all its military forces. What it hasn’t done is brought in full conscription to bolster its force numbers – whether throwing even more untrained and ill-equipped bodies with poor morale onto the front line and risking widespread social unrest at home would strengthen Putin’s position is unclear.
September 14, 2022
Roy, that’s clearly false. 50,000 Russian regular troops were reported as participating last week in the Vostok manoeuvres in Eastern Russia. (It was able to put 300,000 into the equivalent event in 2018, according to Radio Free Europe.)
Russia’s problem is that there are other theatres where its interests are threatened, which it has to keep regular troops available for, e.g. right now the tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And of course Russia has long borders with Baltic countries, now reinforced with NATO forces, which have to be defended.
September 14, 2022
Most of Russia’s forces are deployed to border duties around its vast country.
They have something like 1 million troops (the fighting element of that is much depleted now) – Hitler had amassed 16 million troops when he invaded Poland and stormed through Europe.
September 14, 2022
What a terribly blinkered world view. Along with the view of those responding to your myopic post.
September 15, 2022
I’d happily change your average Leave voter for a Ukrainian.
September 14, 2022
This reads like propaganda. I see no value in such a complicated event being portrayed in such a manner. A more holistic, historical and truth based assessment of the Ukraine-Russia proxy military conflict is required, not that this will in anyway persuade a change of direction
September 14, 2022
+many
It sure does!
But then this whole new psyop l is really pushing the limits of gullability.
September 14, 2022
+1
how many times does Putin warn before taking action? How far should the west encroach east before taking action under guise of EU or NATO.
Ukraine is of military strategic importance to Russia, not UK. If Russia parked their missiles in Cuba or South America I wonder if the US would be happy?
September 14, 2022
+1
Well the US certainly wasn’t happy the last time it happened.
September 14, 2022
How many times will you write “+many”?
In this country, one person gets one vote. I dare say things are different in your country.
The St Petersburg “troll factory” would say things similar to your writing. One has to wonder.
September 14, 2022
Propaganda for whom? Our host is neither writing a doctoral thesis on the subject nor providing evidence for Foreign Office planning, but simply giving a brief outline of the situation and asking for opinions from the public.
I wonder how many other MPs – on either side of the House – are going to that much trouble?
September 14, 2022
Quite so, SM.
I also notice Sir John has been borne out by the latest inflation figure when the BBC and “Economists” were saying otherwise right up till the last second. He is always right in his forecasts.
September 14, 2022
You might want to read the first sentence of the post again, SM: ‘This… comes as good news for people in the West.’ That is neither an outline of the situation in Ukraine nor a request for opinions. Dom was correct.
But I suspect you’re right to say that few other MPs have taken the trouble to consult ordinary people’s views.
Reply It is policy in the USA,U.K.,EU to support Ukraine with Opposition parties in agreement. It isastatement of fact and does not say all people agree.
September 14, 2022
What people do mean JR? People in the west were not asked? You wrote past blogs based on the population of this country are sick of more wars? How is this different? Why are people in the West not sick of this war any more than the ones you previously referred to?
Dom is correct this blog is propaganda.
Perhaps JR could tell the UK population how the govt is borrowing/paying taxpayers’ money to support this Ukraine war. Moreover have the people in the West (not UN, WEF or politicians) been asked if it is a price worth paying regarding energy or money?
September 14, 2022
Repy to reply:- Policy for governments, then, so you were welcoming good news for governments. Thank you for clarifying, Sir John.
September 14, 2022
It’s not that complicated. Russia is an imperialist colonial power in decline. That explains everything.
September 14, 2022
Just like the UK, which wrecked any hope of turning Gaddafy into a bulwark against mass illegal immigration.
September 14, 2022
We should tell Zelensky to get a peaceful agreement. Looks like we stopped him from doing it previously. Give up the Russian parts of Ukraine. We shouldn’t be financing this war any more, it hurts us too much. The non western world does not support us. We (the west) could be realigned into obscurity by the rest of world.
September 14, 2022
+1
Apparently we did scupper an attempt at negotiations earlier in the year.
We want another never ending war?
September 14, 2022
We don’t, the globalists do, it helps them to implement their net zero digital currency agenda. Also diverts attention from poor handling of COVID19 ‘pandemic.’
September 14, 2022
+1
Agree entirely!
It helps enormously with the agenda.
September 14, 2022
See Julian Assange-a neverending war is better than a successful war.
September 14, 2022
Wonder what Boris trip was really all about. Russia later said post a significant delay, the deal was off the table.
Russia and Ukraine will always share a border. So how is that eventual ‘peace’ or truce maintained.
Russia can’t lose as it was sufficiently threatened to invade in the first place. Ukraine even if it successfully retook some of land. Russia could up the stakes or be satisfied it has made its point, with stand off attacks to ensuring no threatening facilities are near its border.
What would have been the result if we had not taken past actions over the years. If we had encouraged neutral spaces and politics. If we had not provided armed support would the Ukraine people be better or worse off than now.
I do not trust the UK gov as it cares not for the UK’s borders or sovereignty on all past actions over the last decade. Allowing external courts to thwart its purported policy , de-stabilising the country internally as a result.
Russia seemed to be more business like than some in the EU. It takes its security seriously. Continue the war and maybe create a currency crisis or even worse.
Russia forming closer alliances with China is not a good strategy!
September 14, 2022
Putin believes the “Russian parts of Ukraine” comprise the whole of Ukraine. You want to give that up ? Then get ready to tell us about giving up the Russian parts of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
September 14, 2022
Agreed.
Thanks very much Boris Johnson for turning up in Ukraine in April and pressuring Zelenskyy to abandon peace talks.
September 14, 2022
Agreement was with wanderer’s post.
Second sentence was sarcastic.
September 14, 2022
Peaceful agreement for Zelensky means surrender. Peaceful agreement for Putin means withdrawing the military from Ukraine.
Zelensky is not the problem.
The cost to support Ukraine represents just a tiny proportion of government waste.
September 14, 2022
It’s so far £2.9bn in weapons etc. for a start, Dave, but you haven’t counted the cost to our economy of the huge energy bills being imposed as a result of inciting Ukraine to war. Nor the cost of massive money-printing adding to the national debt in the PM’s rescue plan. Wars don’t come cheap and they may ruin nations.
September 14, 2022
Yes, that would have been Boris Johnson. So he is the one we have to thank for sky high energy prices.
September 14, 2022
You can thank net zero and ESG policies for that. Pursued, but not originated by Boris, but also Buden, Carney, the EU etc.
September 14, 2022
I agree, Wanderer, and have said this before several times on this site. Ukraine is holding out well, and this would be the right time to seek peace negotiations while Russia is on the back foot. If Ukraine is to survive it must be able to negotiate from a position of some strength, which is now.
September 14, 2022
And what would you give up after that? How many times would you like to appease a dictator who reneges on his territorial treaties?
Those who would sue for piece had better bone up on some history and I would recommend that you start at 1939.
September 14, 2022
This is not 1939. Weapons of mass destruction say so. Insurgency campaigns with provided lethal weapons prove this.
September 14, 2022
With increased Western help the Russians may be rolled further back but I find it very hard to envisage Zelensky getting what he wants, which is all of the “contested Ukrainian territories” including Crimea:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/09/06/my-conservative-home-article-tackling-the-energy-crisis-is-the-key-to-defeating-both-recession-and-inflation/#comment-1339400
As we already know that the war can only end with partition of the territory which made up the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic
it would be much better for everybody to stop it now and negotiate the partition.
September 14, 2022
Wanderer. Agreed.
A new Iron Curtain but this time it’s us behind it.
September 14, 2022
A Times article headlined “Zelensky knows only total victory wiil do” does not include the word “Crimea”.
September 14, 2022
There are no “Russian parts of Ukraine” just as there are no Russian parts of Britain.
People like you led to Hitler conquering much of Europe and almost cost us our liberty too, if Chamberlain had had his way.
September 14, 2022
The Ukrainians have acquired more military materiel that the Russians have abandoned which they can hopefully put to good use?
However ,they have asked for more help from the west in the shape of armaments and we should provide it and speed up the delivery of same
September 14, 2022
David Peddy
The sooner the better before the aggressor has more help from elsewhere.
September 14, 2022
Well, we need to put pressure on Germany to make good on their promises.
September 14, 2022
What I don’t understand, and what really annoys me, is the expectation that we should GIVE help to Ukraine, rather than SELL them the equipment they want. In total our military aid has been worth some £2.5 billion, and we have also contributed around £1.5 billion in humanitarian and economic support. The UK has given Ukraine more aid than the whole of the EU combined. Why are we just GIVING Ukraine all this aid? Why are they not being asked to pay for it?
During the second world war the UK had to agree to pay for all the aid we received from the United States, despite them being our ‘allies’. The US loaned us £2.2 billion under a scheme known as lend-lease, and also charged us 2% annual interest, so that by the time we finished repaying it – which we only did at the end of 2006! – we actually paid them back a total of £3.8 billion. If we were asked to pay for our own survival, why on earth are we not imposing the same requirements on Ukraine?
Ukraine is not a poor, third-world country. It has huge agricultural exports, as well as oil and gas reserves – around a trillion cubic metres of natural gas! On top of this Ukraine is a mineral mother lode, being home to 117 of the 120 most widely used minerals and metals. Ukraine has immense reserves of potential wealth, so I repeat: why are we just giving them aid rather than asking them to agree to pay for this?
September 14, 2022
The West has got to show complete solidarity in its support for Ukraine.
That is not going to happen when certain European countries are holding back as the gas and oil supplies keep reducing. They are not presenting a united front which gives essentially finances for Russia to continue the war.
It is reported that a few European countries are doing deals with Russia through the back door which is encouragement to Russia.
The fact is if Russia is not stopped completely, who is going to be next?
This war was always going to happen all the time Russia controlled the pipelines and essentially the industrial base of Europe. Thankfully a few countries could se the bigger picture and pledged support. There are too many weak links all with their own agenda’s. Until they fully support the efforts of those sending munitions the war will become one of attrition. The only positive is the apparent lack of command and fighting ability of the Russian forces. All one can hope for is an overthrow of the Russian President and his cronies.
.
September 14, 2022
+10
September 14, 2022
Be careful what you wish for, TT. Were Putin to be overthrown, as you would obviously like, he might well be replaced by a hardliner who would ‘get the Ukraine job done properly’, as many in Russia have been calling for. As you’re interested in the Russia-Ukraine war, I expect you will have noticed that Medvedev has been taking a very hard line in some of his recent statements.
September 14, 2022
Turbo – Complete nonsense. It is plain to see that Russia is a second rate military power, at least conventionally.
Putin was provoked time and again by America.
Yours has to be the ultimate in gaslighting and is the recipe for never ending war.
September 14, 2022
Yours is the nonsense – no wonder you’re “anonymous”.
Putin provoked? Was that the best they could come up with in St Petersburg today?
September 14, 2022
NLA is correct to mention provocation. NATO offered Ukraine membership at the Bucharest conference in 2008, NATO scheming replaced the elected Ukraine government with one hostile to Russia in 2014, and Western duplicity allowed Ukraine to dodge implementing the 2015 Minsk accords. NATO countries then trained and armed the much expanded Ukrainian army which has been shelling ethnic Russian civilians in the Donbas for years. People who take the trouble to follow events know what’s been going on, wherever they live, never mind St Petersburg.
September 15, 2022
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/04/07/too-many-wars/#comment-1311096
“Or maybe there were no atrocities, no war crimes, no mass graves, no children killed, no torture chambers; maybe it was all staged by the Russians. Sure, I saw such allegations on the RT propaganda channel, but that has been shut down to prevent it spreading disinformation.”
September 14, 2022
The West should simply give Ukraine all the weapons they ask for, then this war will be over sooner. The longer this war goes on the more the tax payer is on the hook for. Putin also forgets that the West has nuclear weapons when he makes his threats.
September 14, 2022
The people involved in the launch and detonation of nuclear weapons are likely to know immediate retaliation will ensure they themselves are vaporised in minutes. Mutual destruction is not a sensible route to follow.
September 14, 2022
I presume from your post that you have had no military experience.
JF
September 15, 2022
Depends on what you mean by military experience?I have been on numerous UK bases, and on one of the new carriers. No active service though. Go on be dissmissive – you know you want to be….
September 14, 2022
Russia is vast and still has operational nuclear bunkers. Don’t assume MAD.
September 14, 2022
Mickey Taking.
The paradox here is that the threat of using nuclear weapons has to be real for it to work as a deterrent.
That is to say that if Russia (or its leadership) is facing an existential threat then the weapons can and WILL be launched. That threat to them need not be nuclear.
Otherwise what is the point in having nuclear weapons ? They aren’t there for MAD. You have the cart before the horse.
Nuclear weapons are there to assert authority over conventional expansion and MAD is simply a situation which arises from nuclear armament. They were used to defeat the conventionally armed Japanese.
If a despot if faced with his nation’s demise and his own death then we have to respect the fact that normal deterrence may not work.
Then there is always Whoops Apocalypse ! to consider.
We are now far less safe than we were before 2014.
Just how the hell have we thrown away all the benefits of the fall of the Berlin Wall ? Way to go NATO !
September 14, 2022
@ No Longer Anonymous “Nuclear weapons are there to assert authority over conventional expansion and MAD is simply a situation which arises from nuclear armament. They were used to defeat the conventionally armed Japanese. “ – all completely untrue, alas.
September 14, 2022
So you think Putin has a big red button that he can press and automatically various nuclear missiles are launched – at which targets?
September 14, 2022
Yes, threats of use of nuclear weapons is just what we need. The end of the world over what. Some disputed territory where an awful lot of people speak, and identity as, Russian.
September 14, 2022
What the west should do now? Well certainly they should all scrap the net zero religion and the deluded climate alarmist war on plant food, stop blowing up power stations and get mining, drilling, fracking & building decent nuclear stations. But Truss has not even promised this as yet. Also they must stop rigging the energy markets and subsidising unreliables, fair and free competition in energy not rigged lunacy.
Rowan Williams (The Lord Williams of Oystermouth on Tonight yesterday – LBC with Andrew Marr) thinks that King Charles should continuo pushing his bonkers and hypocritical & political views on climate change etc. “It is essential he stands his ground on that” & “he is ahead of the curve” he said. Another deluded dope – who elected this daft theology graduate? What next our aircraft, bridges and energy systems to be designed by deluded theology and arch. and anth. graduates?
Some dire police still seem to think they have a duty to kill free speech by arresting and charging republicans for not being monarchists & saying things like “who elected him”, “not my king” or wearing T-shirts with certain messages on. When did these become illegal?
September 15, 2022
When, LL? Round about March 2020, I’d say. From then on, the police were allowed to make up the law about where and when you could go for a walk, sit down on a park bench etc.. The justification was merely that the government didn’t want you to. It’s same overreach here, with the same purpose, of denying people their rights, and getting us used to it, as a ‘new normal’.
September 14, 2022
Alas only 141 of the 193 UN member states voted for the motion to demand an immediate end to the invasion of Ukraine. Even on a clear cut unprovoked invasion like this – all rather depressing.
September 14, 2022
Lifelogic – Because many countries see how Putin was provoked and how NATO was about to take territory up to his border.
September 14, 2022
NLA – because many countries in Africa are in hock to Russia and also have surprisingly close political*** ties with it.
***for ‘political’ read ‘personal financial’, by the way.
September 14, 2022
A bank holiday is of course another tax on the private sector (circa 80%) to subsidise the state sector. State sector workers still get paid but do not provided the services we pay them for that day. Those in the state sector who do work usually get extra over time or bank holiday pay. In the private sector the self employed get no pay unless they work and businesses have to pay people with no output so end up with reduced profits and then are less able to invest and pay higher wages next year. The state sector make this up with even higher tax rates or borrowing (just deferred taxation) on the private sector (this in addition to the bank holiday losses they have already suffered).
This is to say nothing of all those people who have NHS procedures. GP appointments etc. delayed – some of whom will clearly die as a direct result.
From the current absurdly over taxed position higher taxes will probably produce lower revenue so we get into a dire positive feedback economic death spiral. The result of the tax, borrow, print money, debase the £ and then largely waste the proceeds of dire public policies – due to the appalling economic politics of Major, Blair/Brown, Brown/Darling, Cameron/Osborne, May/Hammond, Boris/Sunak. We shall see what Truss and Kwasi come up with if/when they finally resume some activity.
September 14, 2022
Yes, we will be in self-inflicted recession due to 2 Jubilee bank holidays last quarter leading to -0.1% growth and another one this quarter which may prove the decisive factor.
This is the last thing the queen would have wanted. Keep calm and carry on was her mantra, not this endless wailing and wringing of hands with the country at a near-standstill.
September 14, 2022
Queen’s funeral: Heathrow flights will be disrupted to ensure ‘silence’ during procession for the Queen for three hours or so. Not as bad as for NHS patients where some will certainly die due to the bank holiday cancellations & postponements of their operations, consultations and procedures but a profoundly wrong decision yet again. Total contempt for football fans, air passengers and many others – they are just plebs after all only really there to work & pay taxes to the government. This seems to be the government’s thinking.
Under a clause agreed in 1993 by the then prime minister, John Major, any inheritance passed “sovereign to sovereign” avoids the 40% levy applied to assets valued at more than £325,000. The crown estate has an estimated £15.2bn in assets. An even better tax break than for Sunak’s no longer NonDom wife. Circa £6 billion but if your estate is just £2 million you have to pay £670K. Still we are all in this together as they say! Only months to save the World King Charles has all those private jets, Astons and helicopters to pay for after all.
September 14, 2022
I do not trust the propaganda I hear from either side in this proxy war the US is waging against Russia.
I do object to the billions we pour into this European war while our government does nothing to defend our borders and facilitates the entry of in the region of now about 1,000 young men, daily, of fighting age into our country illegally. Then to accommodate them, feed them and free legal aid.
Meanwhile, for all the sanctions, Russian oil and gas is still coming to the west, via third countries, at vastly inflated prices.
September 14, 2022
BOF – We are eventually to become a re-industrialised nation along the lines of China. The corporations that demand this need all the fresh blood they can get to work in their unregulated and low pay sweat shops.
Our high gas prices and fall in standard of living (which is permanent btw) is global corporations turning their backs on us and seeking out new markets.
We are being told measures to create this situation (lockdown/greenism/Ukraine) are all for our own good (protect us from disease/protect us from global warming/protect our democracy) when really it is to disguise the fact that disastrous Western credit policy (private and public) has led us to Credit Crunch 2 whilst telling us poverty is necessary and for our own good.
The one thing that really shows lockdown/greenism/Ukraine to be a lie is the boat invasion – this damages disease control/greenism/democracy and blows a hole in their lie and so they ignore it.
The Tories are your enemy.
When will you get that ?
September 14, 2022
“War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”
1984
September 14, 2022
NLA
I agree with what you say. But it is not the Tories who are our enemy, it is the Westminster UNIPARTY. They are all, to a fine degree, on the same page.
September 14, 2022
Much truth in this.
September 14, 2022
Spot on, BOF. It’s lunacy. Or more likely opportunistic, as NLA implies. Certainly not good for your average Joe.
September 14, 2022
Prepare for Russia itself to disintegrate
The Kremlin’s disastrous losses in Ukraine could result in the collapse of the Russian Federation
says Ben Hodges in the Telegraph – Though I am not convinced of this myself.
September 14, 2022
+many
Moi non plus!
September 14, 2022
Collapse of the Russian Federation cannot be permitted: we just do not have the hotel capacity.
September 14, 2022
But the welcomed immigration of Poles has been generally worthwhile, as could be Ukrainians, but Albanians?
September 14, 2022
Let us hope not. It would mean yet another wave of migration into Western Europe and this country.
September 14, 2022
The Russian army is being humiliated in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s response is increasingly to blame the military, so it won’t just be the foot soldiers whose loyalty they lose, it will be the entire command structure.
When the Kremlin loses the loyalty of the entire armed forces, Putin’s position will be very precarious and a military coup becomes very likely.
September 14, 2022
Putin’s response is to say that he is fighting not on ‘Ukranian Fascists’ but the whole of NATo too.
September 14, 2022
LL – I suspect this is a delusion. The US is also at risk, in a number of ways.
September 14, 2022
Great. A proliferation of small, nuclear armed states, each run by gangsters.
Way to go NATO.
China will sweep up, I hope.
September 14, 2022
Sounds like more Media wishful hype, LL. Is the Telegraph reliable? Or any other newsprint paper (except the FT on financial issues).
September 14, 2022
The FT is so biased in favour of the EU it has forfeited its reputation for reliability.
September 14, 2022
Mr. Putin has failed to learn a lesson taught by Mr. Hitler that when showing one’s hand it is best to present a fait accompli. The West is in consequence in a bind as it cannot now be seen to allow Mr. Putin to succeed but it does not want to get its own hands so dirty by taking the measures needed to thwart him.
This presents opportunities for the U.K, and we should first recognize that our interests and those of the West do not match precisely.
This adventure in Ukraine can be used as a dagger at Mr. Putin’s throat, a thorn in the Evil Empire’s side and perhaps much worse for it, and a means of distracting and embroiling Mr. Biden to make him more appreciative of our support when extended. At home it can be used to roll-back the damaging and unnecessary “green agenda”, prioritizing energy security. Alas, we have the Foreign Office and BEIS so nothing much can be expected but it is what we should do. (I have not gone into more detail out of respect for the late Queen and your boredom threshold.)
September 14, 2022
I’m afraid the war and the accompanying energy crisis are being used for precisely the opposite, F 57. They’re being used to implement the net zero agenda. It’s particularly clear in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy (as was) where the Greens share power and are rolling forward that agenda, not rolling it back. It will be the same here, but less extreme and more discreet in the usual British way. It would be very nice if you were right, but I think you yourself suspect that the ‘permanent government’ (civil service and the interests they serve) will not do what you want.
September 14, 2022
We should continue arming Ukraine, but with that country being billed for its supplies. As for reconstruction, that bill should be picked up by the EU, whose desire to embrace Ukraine was one of the causes of this war. In the long-term, we should continue economic and other sanctions against Russia until it is a functioning democracy. And every last Russia national here should be kicked.
September 14, 2022
Presumably you won’t buy anything made in China until it is a functioning democracy.
September 14, 2022
We shouldn’t buy Chinese made simply because they killed off our manufacturing ability to be viable.
September 14, 2022
I have avoided buying from China for quite a long time now. Autocracies stockpiling weapons and running Belt & Road schemes should not be financed. It’s not a difficult geopolitical calculation.
September 15, 2022
I do what I can to avoid buying Chinese tat.
September 14, 2022
Have sanctions ever worked SW? Think Cuba…they were sanctioned for half a century or so. And all they have to offer the world is sugar. Russia has a lot of useful commodities.
September 15, 2022
Is our democracy functioning?
Its been a scam on the working people, for so long. Billionaire class growing well enough.
Net Zero. ? The EU? ECHR? NIP? Huge numbers in legal and illegal immigration no manifesto promise to do that.
BBC propaganda tax even now when people ration spending.
Printing money to pay off “too big to fails”. Resulting in inflation theft.
September 14, 2022
The economic impacts of this war on the EU and UK in particular have been self-inflicted. Shutting down gas fields, stalling fracking, abandoning gas reserve storage.
Seemingly to coincide with this war, the US also prepared by cutting off their own oil pipelines.
Were these acts wilfully thought through, calculated and deliberate?
Or ill-considered and monumentally stupid?
Simultaneously, the US cuts off their own pipelines
September 14, 2022
+1
Don’t forget how much all of this helps the Great Reset.
All the way back to the1700s.
We’ll be using candles this winter!
September 19, 2022
They were and are wilfully thought through, calculated and deliberate, ill-considered and monumentally stupid.
September 14, 2022
I do hope the West and NATO consider how China may react if they think Putin could be toppled by the old ‘regime change’ tactic, one so beloved it seems of the former, which has brought nothing but trouble.
I am given to understand that they have invested a lot of money in Russia and will not be too keen to see Putin go or for unrest in Russia.
The problem with retaking those areas who see themselves as Russian is the likelihood of the conflict dragging on and on. Will we just see endless skirmishes so in effect going back to how it was prior to Russian’s moving in?
What good will that do?
It may be distasteful to some, but to save lives and at least try to bring some stability to order then the Ukrainian’s may need to let those who wish to break away do so. Then put up a ring of steel to keep them out!!!
However, the Ukrainian’s must be allowed to order their own affairs without others wishing a prolonged proxy war with Russia whispering in their ears. They must also be left in no doubt that other countries cannot finance a war indefinitely.
I feel a deep sense of sadness for the ordinary Ukrainian civilian and soldier alike. Their position seems akin to that of a bone between two vicious dogs.
September 14, 2022
It is heartening to see the heroic Ukrainian troops countering the Russian invaders, God speed to them.
Meantime it is right to call for ceasefires, peace talks, coordinated with UN/China/India ROTW.
Why not work up a DMZ strategy for the Ukraine border areas with Russia/Belarus, aka North and S Korea, Cyprus etc. Ensure the right propaganda reaches the ordinary Russians, ideally from a neutral body like the UN, the act of change in Russia has to come from it’s people, so focus should be on reaching out to them.
Quietly continue to train Ukrainians, with advanced weaponry & supply in the volumes needed, supported with the intel needed. Keep the pressure on militarily, incl drone/precision attacks of their supplies/armaments. Glad to see the Danes have just announced they will train Ukranians, other EU countries REALLY need to step up too, of course quietly is fine, no detail needed. We don’t need to (nor should) poke the bear with a sore head directly.
Have a plan should Russia uses a nuclear or bio/chem weapon, as this would be their final pariah status.
In my book this is: complete sealing of Russia from the West for everything, people/materials/services. Russians abroad/living in the West need to be given notice to return to Russia, or face internment until the war is over. There has to be real consequences if such heinious weapons are used.
Frack/mine/drill AT PACE for all UK energy needs and then export some too (this will really help reduce our national debt and bring down our energy prices) whilst progressing the greener nuclear, hydrogen and intermittents.
The oil crisis from the 70’s we oldies thought was a lesson learnt, it seems not, however I suspect Merkel was an agent. We can only go forward with where we are, we need energy security and we need it now. If we have to import oil/gas pro temps, it should primarily be from secure friendly countries, I am sure there is huge focus already on setting this up, but maybe not so advanced in EU, some still seem in denial, Italy for one.
September 14, 2022
Putin believes the “Russian parts of Ukraine” comprise the whole of Ukraine. You want to give that up ? Then get ready to tell us about giving up the Russian parts of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
September 14, 2022
There is a ‘conspiracy theory’ that the globalists want a never-ending war with which to cover the objective of crushing the economies and living standards of Western countries. This goes along with mass immigration to loosen social cohesion within these countries and thereby prevent opposition to the Great Reset.
September 14, 2022
I think you mean conspiracy fact, Beresford. It’s all working out nicely with German industry collapsing, people being told to accept restrictions on travel and fossile energy use. Oh look, that’s just what the Greenies want.
September 14, 2022
The fact that both Dominic Cummings and Matthew Parris think we should stop funding them and tell Ukraine to hand over vast areas of territory to Russia as part of some peace (ie. surrender) deal convinces me that we should do the exact opposite and keep equipping and training the UKR military as we are doing now.
Any half-way house like Germany is attempting (still refusing to deliver tanks) will result in them alienating and losing influence with both Russia and the USA-led Western interest.
September 14, 2022
Actually.
What the West should now do, as discussed here many times…is to start digging.
Dig ourselves out of this ludicrous hole. Dig up coal and frack,frack,frack!
Unsign all the ridiculous agreements.
Stop making total fools of ourselves at summits and conferences.
Get self sufficient in energy and start manufacturing again.
We need to considering BRICS and whatever is now going on between China and Russia.
Russia alone has more warheads that NATO and add those of the other BRICS members!!
September 14, 2022
Anyway.
Nil desperandum and all that.
It is probably ALL about the much-supported-by-all-leaders Great Reaset!
September 14, 2022
some do it and seek to destroy their economy and plunge citizens into misery, others ignore or smile and carry on regardless.
September 14, 2022
We’re such a rich country we should borrow more and more to arm Ukraine and accommodate everyone in the world that wants to come here.
September 14, 2022
Seems to be the plan – more channel migrants this year than last year already.
September 14, 2022
We must demand twice our money back and priority exclusive long term business contracts for sales to Ukraine of our manufactured products.
September 14, 2022
Britain has no vital interests at stake in Ukraine, and should not be involved. In particular, Johnson should have encouraged Ukraine to comply with the Minsk Agreements and also enter peace talks with Russia.
The pain Johnson says it is worth Britain suffering for the sake of Ukraine won’t be shared by him.
September 14, 2022
The West should keep the pressure on Putin with continued sanctions and high tech military support of Ukraine. Additionally Europe should work to grow independent of Russian fuel. The UK should go flat out to be self sufficient in fuel using all that is around and beneath us ensuring that nett zero is an aspiration based on science, engineering, and affordability.
September 14, 2022
The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power station has been in territory occupied without opposition by Russian forces since March; it was being managed by its original technicians. It has now been shut down because the Zelensky regime has been shelling it. The Zaporizhzhya region wishes to offer its citizens the opportunity of voting to join Russia. This region as well as Kherson and Donbass have always been Russian but the Russians in these regions were content to be part of Ukraine until the coup in 2014 orchestrated by Victoria Nuland.
Under no circumstances should the Tory government support the US in its continuous and malign meddling in world affairs. We are paying the price as usual for our support for its geopolitical objectives as is the rest of Europe; meanwhile the Tory government is doing nothing to stop the foreign invasion of my country since we, the English, are no longer important to them as is pretty obvious from the constitution of its cabinet.
September 14, 2022
+1
September 14, 2022
This war is a tragedy. The West needs to bear in mind that territorial identity in much of Europe, especially in the East, has been fairly fluid quite late into modern history. I do not think of the Russians as enemies, but the undoubted aggression of the Putin regime should have been understood and managed better at least a decade ago. I do not think there is any future in escalation, and Britain’s headlong initiative in support of Zelenski was foolhardy. There can be no ultimate winners, only more death and destruction everywhere, which like the Net Zero policy, is utter madness. It has got to end somehow and I am in favour of negotiation between the warring parties, with maximum facilitation by the West and others. I do think it realistic to concede Russian speaking territory, provided Ukraine has fair access to the Black Sea.
As Churchill said, it’s better to ‘Jaw-Jaw’, than to ‘War-War’. I wonder what the late Queen thought, in her private conversations with PMs? If she could shake the hand of the IRA, I’m sure she would have had the courage and goodness to preside over a genuine peace here too. Sadly, massive destruction, followed by a false peace is currently more in prospect.
September 14, 2022
I would not be surprised to learn that the Biden administration is happy to prolong the war in Ukraine in order to weaken Europe.
September 14, 2022
Nor would I, O.R. And also very happy to sell Liquefied Natural Gas at a huge markup over what Europe was paying for Russian gas a year or two ago. But Biden doesn’t really have to try very hard if that is his plan – the EU shoots itself in the foot every time without any help.
September 14, 2022
When if comes to Russia there are plenty of examples as to the dangerous nature of their make- up, and for those who do not pay attention to history I would like to remind them of the mass murders of 22, 000 Polish officers in the forests of Katyn Smolenesk in 1941 by Soviet officers of NKVD by Stalins order- it happened in Soviet times but Russian all the same – blamed on the Germans but not admitted to by the Russians until after the fall of the betlin Wall in 1989 and If anyone thinks that Putin would behave any differently given half the chance then they are deluded.
Next I would pose the question as to how things would be at this time if Presudent Trump had won the election. Answer – it’s very likely that Moldova and some of the other smaller countries of Eastern Europe would have been already swallowed up and the rest of would be mobilising – and I think that’s a fair take – if Trump was in power
September 14, 2022
The answer is for NATO to declare that Ukraine is a member with immediate effect & give Putin an ultimatum that he has 7 days to remove all Russian forces from Ukraine or face the full might of the NATO forces.
Bullies only back down when confronted with a superior force.
September 14, 2022
“The full might of the NATO forces”
Oh yes, let’s have a nuclear exchange with Russia and reduce Leeds to a cinder, all for the sake of Ukraine.
September 14, 2022
Yeah! Saddle up! That would work! One cannot but be grateful that you are not in charge of NATO.
September 15, 2022
possibly a trifle hasty?
September 14, 2022
The answer to the question is to step up, even maximise, the military support donations to Ukraine in terms of the amount and even more important the quality of the military weaponry given to Ukraine.The real cost to us can be quite low as Western armies already have most of this equipment in stock – it is already held by us mainly as a deterrent rather as weaponry we are ever likely to use in war ourselves.
The better equipped the Ukrainians are the quicker they will win and probably the sooner Putin will lose power in Russia and in any case the sooner the consequent gas (and food) supply crises will end.
September 14, 2022
And what happens to the Russian speakers?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_census_2001_Russian.svg
When you have helped Zelensky to regain control of Crimea, what do you think should be done with the large majority of the population who have Russian as their native language? Deport them to Russia?
We – the EU/NATO/US troika – should never have poked our noses into Ukraine and its civil war.
September 14, 2022
+1
September 14, 2022
No problem – they will still be governed by a Russian speaker, though an elected one this time – Zelensky himself is a native Russian speaker!
September 15, 2022
I’m sure that would be a great reassurance to them.
September 14, 2022
A more important invasion for our Government to deal with is the one happening across the English Channel.
It appears we cannot even return to Albania their criminals.
Every day the Government invites into the country unidentified young men of fighting age with free accommodation, free healthcare, £40/week pocket money and the freedom to roam the streets and take black market jobs or take part in criminal enterprises.
The Government (Cabinet Office and Home Office) even funds the organisations taking it to court over their Rwanda plan.
The Government should take note of Denmark’s left wing government’s Rwanda plan and the fast rise of the Swedish Democrats as a result of massive immigration.
September 14, 2022
Indeed – See the Telegraph video “Tim Stanley on the big Tory immigration lie”
September 14, 2022
+1
September 14, 2022
The Tory government has I believed signed an international contract or treaty – Mrs May – which in effect means we will endlessly invite and accept migrants, including illegals.
This amounts to a betrayal and abandonment of our cultural identity, particularly England’s, because the overwhelming mumbers will it is known stay in England and be supported.
They have no intention of protecting England or the English in any way and will happily let it be broken up, but they protect and promote all things Scottish and Welsh. England is never spoken of. We know also they have betrayed Northern Ireland too.
September 14, 2022
It was the height of stupidity and wickedness to provoke Putin as the US led Nato did over the years. Stupid because Europe was reliant on his gas, wicked because a lot of good Ukrainian lads are now dead and a lot of good Russian lads are now dead and because – however it is dressed up as victory – Ukraine is now a devastated country.
What does the West do now ? I suggest we help Ukraine sue for peace and leave the Russians to hold territory that has predominantly Russian Ukrainians in it. Stop the war.
Either way the West must become independent in its own gas supply for a start. We cannot afford NOT to frack. Alas, it is the interim (whether we go renewable or gas) when our countries will destabilise and our economies will be wrecked.
There is a good chance that in standing up to a despot we ourselves become despotic. I fear that our country will look very bleak and very different by next spring.
September 14, 2022
Sir John,
The West, particularly President Biden, have been sending signals that it is weak-willed, short-sighted, ignorant of the energy underpinnings of our society. We have handed Russia access to our mains off-switch and should not be surprised that Mr Putin has exploited that stupidity.
Biden’s war against his own shale gas resources means that there are many underused fracking rigs with their crews which, if the opportunity were seized, would mean our energy starvation would be of short duration.
I am disappointed in the slow response to our situation. Yes, it’s difficult, but if we get a hard winter we will regret each day wasted. Perhaps things are happening at full speed behind the scenes. Let’s hope so.
The Nudge Unit should be neutralised and a different narrative put in place. Shale gas is a low carbon fuel and could even be used to power much of our ICE transport. A major carbon saving. The gas grid which sends energy to our homes should be extended to more properties, replacing oil central heating. Another carbon saving.
A shale gas economy is halfway to the hydrogen economy, which would make a striking slogan.
JF
Halfway to Hydrogen — cheaper and safer.
September 14, 2022
We have no hydrogen mines. It is in effect just a very inefficient, rather impractical and very expensive battery system. Green hydrogen is hugely expensive & very energy wasteful. Grey hydrogen comes from natural gas/methane + energy. Usually far better and far more efficient use the methane directly (other than in a few specialist areas. See Prof. Samuel Furfari’s sensible book – The Hydrogen Illusion.
September 14, 2022
Prof. Samuel Furfari is a Chemical Engineer from the Free University of Brussels. Between 1982 and 2018, he was a senior official at the Energy Directorate-General of the European Commission where he has devoted an entire career to energy technology and policy. Since 2003 he is a professor of energy geopolitics and energy politics at the Free University of Brussels. He is the author of 10 books on energy and sustainable development and many articles. Since 2019 President of the European society of engineers and industrialists.
September 14, 2022
Putin and his dinosaur cronies copy the playbook of both Stalin and Hitler in so many ways it is uncanny but think history applies to them.
Intelligence and resolve supplied by the West to Stalin defeated Hitler despite having massive military capability. Same here supplied to the intelligent, smart and brave Ukrainian people who have suffered from the Soviet experience and don’t want to relive it, preferring freedom which we take so much for granted.
Remember Putin pulverized women,children and soft targets like cutting power, water, shipping and even nuclear blackmail.
He and his murderous cabal need stopping and containing as their track record is appalling from poison, torture, falling to unspeakable crimes against humanity.
Britain has always had to lead Europe on challenging dictators and we have a sixth sense of the dangers to the free West.
Yes we could pretend it’s not our problem, but it most certainly is. We have a ruthless enemy who sees world domination as its dysfunctional goal together with China who has 2049 as the target year.
September 14, 2022
@ ukretired123 “Britain has always had to lead Europe on challenging dictators “ – no, it was a choice and today we could quite properly and sensibly choose to cease pulling others’ chestnuts out of the fire for them.
Involvement in the First World War was a very serious mistake and made involvement in the Second harder to avoid. Had we sat out both, the outcomes may not have been so much distinguished from what they were, but we would have been very much better placed. A lesson to remember today!
September 15, 2022
Maybe on hindsight benefit – but nevertheless as of reality today my last concluding sentence is a profound fact as things stand presently.
September 14, 2022
But don’t think that history applies to them – delusions indeed.
September 14, 2022
resuming topic.
In many cupboards, bathroom cabinets – or even on the side of a few lorries – the Queen’s Royal Arms have, as a symbol, shown consumers that those same products grace palaces and castles. But all of that is about to change.
When Queen Elizabeth II passed away at her Scottish estate in Balmoral, more than 600 Royal Warrants passed with her. These symbols on packaging or websites not only show that the companies meet exacting standards, but have also supplied the Royal Household on a regular basis.
The Royal Warrant Association has said, however, that these businesses must now reapply for their warrants. They are reviewed after a change in reigning sovereign but companies can continue to use the Royal Arms in connection with the business for up to two years.
The 180 warrants Charles issued as Prince of Wales will continue now that he is King because they go with the household, not the title.
Many of the products affiliated with the Queen are very high-end; Fortnum & Mason goodies, champagnes and equine supplies. Others include household items such as Marmite, Twinings Tea, Tate & Lyle sugars, Cadbury’s chocolates and Heinz sauces.
Is it me, or is this Royal seal of approval all such nonsense and should stop?
September 15, 2022
What harm does it do? The warrants serve as a quality-mark and, arguably, help the holders in their marketing – particularly to foreigners. I feel that the tradition should continue.
September 15, 2022
Well it does deter newer, smaller businesses trying to compete in possibly new areas. At one point in my working life (I only volunteer now) I was expected to ensure larger, more proven bids for contracts would get higher marks than those growing with a little less history. This ‘quality mark’ might have been awarded 10/20/30 years ago without any certainty it still has value.
September 14, 2022
When the USA armed the UK in the World War and set up our war debt that was repayable for decades, do we have the same bills and war debt provision with Ukraine or does this all come our of our foreign aid?
Don’t you wonder what would happen if Trump was still in charge when Putin made his move that started this war? Russia invaded and then annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Trump was reported to say, “Obama can say all he wants, but he allowed Russia to take Crimea,” When Trump was President every day we had reports from the opposition in the USA in our British Media but we never hear any criticism of Biden’s Whitehouse and the decisions made doesn’t anyone else think that’s odd.
“Moscow maintains a historical claim to Crimea. The Russians colonized Crimea during the reign of Catherine the Great, and they founded Sevastopol — the peninsula’s main port and largest city — to be the homeport for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Following the establishment of the Soviet Union, Crimea was a part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic until 1954, when it was transferred administratively to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.” source brookings.edu.blog
September 14, 2022
+1
Very odd. FaceTime boss admitted FBI requested he did not publish content of Biden’s computer before election! It has been pointed out by commentators this is election interference.
Raiding Trump’s house before mid-term elections! Odd, no corruption g election process- again.
September 14, 2022
The Ukraine war is a useful foreign distraction from Biden’s current sinister manoeverings…he’s busily turning the FBI on his political opponents at home.
September 14, 2022
Catherine the Great (and Prince Potemkin)also founded the other ports of what is today Southern Ukraine,particularly Odessa.They have Greek sounding names(Melitopol,Simferopol,Mariupol,etc-Odessa is derived from Odysseus) because they formed part of the Empress’s planned “Greek Project”-a revived Byzantine Empire,with the Ottoman Turks ejected from Europe,to be ruled by her grandson,Konstantin,named after the Emperor Constantine who moved the capital of the Roman empire to Constantinople.
September 14, 2022
Sadly the Overton Window is fast closing.
September 14, 2022
The UK govt should continue with its support of Ukraine via the training of Ukrainian soldiers, supply of weaponry and military intelligence as well as cajoling other European countries to increase their support and maintain sanctions.
Yes, we should double down on stopping criminals ( illegal migrants ) reaching our shores but it is not an either or situation. The UK needs to both support Ukraine and sort the invasion of criminals that undermine our systems and the rule of law.
The influx of criminals has gone too far. Our Govt is going against the people’s wishes by being too weak and frankly scared. All the World can see that the matter has got out of hand and that we have been fair and done our best. Our Govt now needs to ignore so called international indignation ( the immigration problem is not affecting the vast majority of other countries ) and deliver what they promised to the people of the UK. It needs to show that our patience has run out.
Cut benefits.
No hotels. Put them in field somewhere with bricks and mortar, tell them to get building shelters. Put armed guards around the site. Provide basic food and electricity. A harsher treatment will put many off making the journey.
Advertise that the UK will adopt a push back policy and that anyone boarding a boat does so at their own risk.
Change the laws. The UK govt should have the right to place Albanians, etc on a plane for Albania the same day of arrival. No questions asked. Or the right to give them a cup of tea and send them back on the Eurostar within the hour.
The Govt needs to listen to it’s people and ignore international meddlers and the judiciary who continue to make laws by the back door. The Govt makes the law and the judiciary carries out the law.
The Govt could do all of this if it wanted to. Where is the determination and will power. Listen to the people and not liberal minded civil servants.
September 14, 2022
Off topic, more time and effort trying to counter a lie that started with the UK government, to the Times:
“In today’s editorial on the Irish protocol you refer to “the arrangements which uniquely allow Northern Ireland access to both the British and European single markets”.
Firms in Great Britain may be surprised to learn that they no longer have access to the European single market, especially as their exports to it reach record levels.”
As usual the Times is advocating surrender to the EU.
September 14, 2022
Are you confusing the Northern Ireland Protocol with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement? Northern Ireland currently has a unique position of having free access to the UK internal Market and free access to the EU Internal Market. The EU doesn’t care a toss about what goes out of Northern Ireland to the GB, it’s the reverse that is the problem; exactly the same as GB (now with EU “third country” status) to France or any other EU State.
September 15, 2022
Read what it said in the Times editorial, there was no qualifier such as “free”, or “unfettered”, or whatever.
The reality is that companies in Northern Ireland who wish to export to the EU may have a small advantage over similar companies in Great Britain who wish to export to the EU, but certainly no more than a small advantage. And in fact the advantages of the trade deal agreed by Boris Johnson are so small that some companies don’t even bother trying to qualify for tariff free access.
As for “The EU doesn’t care a toss about what goes out of Northern Ireland to the GB”:
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1656586/eu-uk-northern-ireland-protocol-article-16-ben-habib
“The EU’s interpretation of the Protocol – which it is formally and legally enforcing for the first time – would, amongst other things, require we implement checks on goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.”
September 15, 2022
You mean like the recent letter in the Irish Times describing as “silly” any objections to the protocol.
September 14, 2022
I suggest: 1) continue to supply arms and give public support to Ukraine; 2) privately encourage Ukraine to be open to a negotiated settlement, eg involving referenda under international supervision in disputed areas with massive economic help to Ukraine (inc from Russia) as part of the settlement; 3) don’t let the crisis go to waste – we need much more secure sources of cheap energy. The only lower or zero carbon fuels available under present technology at the scale we want are nuclear and natural gas. Strike now while there will be public support to get a major impetus behind both.
September 14, 2022
You are doing a great job john. I see the extra land you have gained but i am now looking at the second biggest city in Ukraine sitting there with no electric, water, sanition or internet for the lager number of people living there, i take it that the city will now have be abandoned before winter apart from troop’s. Down in the south west where the Russian have 20,000 troop’s which have been fighing off huge number’s of Ukraine troop’s, 3500 to 4000 killed and 8 to 9000 casualties in 10 day’s. The fact is, Russian troop involement in the war is low, most of troop’s are from the Luhansk republic troop’s and Donetsk republic troop’s, who are all Ukraine’s troop’s with troop’s from other countries.
Reply I have done no job in Ukraine. I have set out the current position to hear views.
September 14, 2022
Paul – forgive me I am no pedant, but when you use plural there is no apostrophe.
September 14, 2022
The Ukrainians have been using their conscripts as cannon fodder in the so-called massive counteroffensive in Kherson-they had to advance across open,featureless land in the face of massed Russian artillery.
September 14, 2022
My thoughts are on money it will cost, 57 billion pounds so far this year with 8 months to go, energy bail-out, who knows, 100 or 200 a year and then Ukraine, pension and so on, need alot growth for whats coming.
September 14, 2022
and know your taking on the Christian Army don’t you and there will be no coming back from that brother john.
September 14, 2022
Private citizens in the US, UK and EU should minimise their gas and energy consumption, that’s what should happen. Boris Johnson put it well: we are paying higher bills, the Ukranians are paying in blood. It’s about time that the West asserted that Russia, as the agressor, should pay 100% of Ukraine’s costs in rebuilding its damaged and destroyed residences and infrastructure. Further, that sanctions will remain in place until it does so. If that doesn’t get Putin deposed, nothing will. Yes, I do want regime change in Russia.
September 14, 2022
I do not care if I am accused of being a ‘Putin Lover’:-
My very first reaction to this whole issue was quite simply, ‘What have events on the far side of Europe to do with the U.K.?’
Second reaction, ‘We are out of the E.U., let them worry about it.’
Third reaction, ‘What business is it of the U.S.A. or more particularly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.’
After considerable searching on line, I have come to the conclusion that Russia has been provoked by ‘The West’, ever since the break up of the U.S.S.R.
September 14, 2022
I agree with a negotiated peace deal. Wherever boundaries are, including a said defensive wall, the attempt is to curtail freedoms. Who ever has fuel, has power and everyone understands this. Sanctions won’t help: it is yet another threat to make Putin dig his heels in .Upping aggression and talks of a long war are not acceptable . We need to know more about agreed boundaries and what the Russians thought were Ukraine’s independence.
September 14, 2022
The West should aim to end this war as rapidly as possible. The recent successes in Kharkiv Oblast show that it can happen quickly.
I follow the news in the free press in Ukraine and Russia and they are seeing a total degradation in Russian troops’ morale, numbers, training and equipment. Many are trying depserately t o avoid combat duties, others are being refused medical treatment and being told to return to fighting units.
The major advantage of ending it rapidly is that it gives the Putins of this world no time to create new scenarios such as creating an issue out of the nuclear plant or other ill-advised threats.
With winter likely to slow down (or completely suspend) combat operations it’s important for the Ukrainians to avoid the Russians digging in over the winter and continuing to shell their cities, possiblt leading to a frozen conflict which is one of Putin’s aims.
The Russians are exhausted – even more so than the Ukrainians, but many of them are understood to have been deceived into what they should expect, given almost no training and therefore have no interest in fighting this war. There is a clear opportunity for Ukraine to retake all of its territory quickly, meaning that the conflict is essentially over by winter.
Furthermore, there is apparently no sensible regrouping of forces by Russia as a result of the recent Ukrainian gains – they are still brainlessly shelling settlements in the western Donbas as if nothing has changed – it may already be too late for them to reinforce the new defensive line, likely to be at the Oskil river.
Obviously we need new (domestic) sources of energy to be brought online asap and must forge new ties with countries such as Norway in the meantime – we cannot continue to buy at spot prices determined by countries who were daft enough to buy Russian gas when we did not.
I would add that we should look to form new economic groups with countries such as Ukraine. Seeing them fall into the arms of the EU would be bad for them and for the world. Worse than that, the EU are manoeuvring to have a new “non-member group” which is still an EU thing, run by the EU and Macron, trying to draw us into shielding them with our military and draw us back into their institutions and ultimately, no doubt, rejoining – we must resist that and consider forming a UK-led group of countries with common trade goals and military partnerships. Such a group MUST exclude countries who are already part of another trade bloc such as the EU.
We should also call out the French and Germans for their utter cowardice in trying to have a country give up its territory just so that they can return to their cosy lives. THey are a disgrace and we should say so more clearly (as the Ukrainians are doing). Appeasement only delays war, it does not prevent it.
September 14, 2022
Ukraine leader going all-in, amassing troops and equipment on all fronts from south to east,
September 14, 2022
Dear Sir John;
So many lessons of history have not been learnt. But at least we now realise that Mr Putin is refighting the Cold War to achieve a different result, just as Germany refought World War One, as predicted by the French field marshal. Supplying what Ukraine needs, as the United States supplied third-country Britain before Pearl Harbor, ls the least, but also in some senses the most we can do. We do not know how it will end, just as many Americans did not know if the UK would survive in 1940. We can say:
1) Russia and its ally China, the second biggest nuclear power and the world’s strongest economy, have both gradually metamorphosed from Communism to become ethnically-aggressive Fascist empires, totalitarian at home, relying on private enterprise fully harnessed to the service of the state abroad. On present trends they will still be a threat to the way oflife of those now being born in the West. And not a word they say can be trusted.
2) No country that has nuclear weapons will even consider giving them up, as Ukraine did in exchange for vague “guarantees”. And any country with a potential enemy would sensibly try to acquire nuclear weapons of its own or to seek shelter under a nuclear umbrella such as Nato. A big step backwards.
3) Economic and diplomatic sanctions alone rarely work today, any more than they did when the US applied them to Japan in the 1930s. Off hand, apartheid South Africa is the only country I can recall being brought to heel. Strategies are needed , as Mr Trump warned Germany, not reactions.
September 14, 2022
Thanks mickey, but i only started writing 10 years ago and did not pick up the bits as you mention, i could use apps in case your having a problem but john can tell you how bad i am at this game, but i do not mind people pointing it out mickey, there been occasion when had pick-up the dictionary to see the meaning of some words written on this site, alot peole won’t writ on the site for that reason. I see it as a obfuscation by the elite for training people, i also notice that the vote is still a cross on paper, no name or address so that mean they did try to include me, but the thing is mickey i have never voted for anything and am happy with what people vote for, i just get on with it, i have not work for 20 years mickey and March this year i thought of opening a new business in 18 month time in the deeps of the next downturn, i have been in business before and retired.
September 15, 2022
Paul I am glad I didn’t offend, we have people from other countries and backgrounds on here, and it can be the richer for it! We can all make the odd error in our contributions – haste, poor typing, even dodgy keyboard I have got a separate one from the built in laptop which had a mind of its own. Sometimes we make grammar mistakes etc but not normally remarked on. I even go and look up words when I am not certain of meaning or context. It can be educational!
September 14, 2022
Russia is clearly the aggressor here (though I am conscious that the US has pushed its own agenda in Ukraine to an unprecedented degree in recent years), having invaded a sovereign nation and attempted to take its capital (as opposed to taking parts of the East where there is at least a figleaf of justification with the large Russian-speaking populations). However, like many of your commentors, I have been troubled by the extent to which the British Government (in common with those in most of Europe) has been willing to set aside Britain’s national economical interests in the cause of a foreign war. I believe that we are probably doing so, not because of any genuine strength of feeling our leaders have about the conflict, but because we want to be a good ally to the United States, which, for many reasons, stands to lose far less by this conflict than we do.
It is a truism that Britain’s interests are usually served by staying out of continental conflicts and projecting power via a strong Royal Navy. The current situation is reminiscent of Richard the Lionheart bankrupting England in the cause of the Crusade, which no doubt had a similarly powerful moral argument behind it in its day.
What ‘the West’ should do now is, I believe, use the recent initiative won in Ukraine to negotiate favourable peace terms with Putin – probably allowing Russia to keep Crimea following an internationally-observed plebiscite, and possibly with some form of autonomy and demilitarisation of the Donbass. We can humiliate Putin, or even aim for his downfall, but who follows him? What if that person is still more hostile to Western interests?
Since we do not control ‘the West’, what I think Britain should do now is signal privately to continental Europe that we are prepared to give diplomatic cover to a Franco-German peace attempt, and urge the USA to support it. We cannot initiate this process ourselves, and it would not drive down the wholesale price of gas in Europe if we did it anyway. The gas pipelines to Europe need to be turned back on. The sooner the better.
.
September 14, 2022
Enforcing Minsk II (the later 2015 Accord) would be a start: that means offering devolved self-rule to the two Luhansk and Donetsk regions after a referendum supervised by OCSE, but L & D would need to acknowledge that they are part of a sovereign Ukraine that must be allowed to decide its own national foreign policy and govern its own existing international border. Devolved government for ethnically majority-Russian parts of eastern Ukraine does not give those people the right to cross-border agreements with the Russian Federation. I can foresee a future problem, in that the EU would not allow Ukraine any trade agreement with Russia that the eastern regions currently enjoy. This needs the kind of sensitive negotiation of which Brussels has shown itself to be utterly incapable so far.
The ethnic composition of Ukraine is varied after centuries of being a political football and Stalinist ethnic cleansing. We cannot keep on revising E European state borders because of local ethnic cleansing.
Ukraine needs to pull back its ‘nationalist’ (i.e. anti-Russian) assault on Donbas, the Donbas separatists too have to lay down their weapons, Russia has to get out of Ukraine (including Crimea). And Ukraine’s 1945/1954 agreed external borders should be respected. Putin’s paranoid ambitions to recreate Soviet and even Tsarist borders have to be rejected. He cannot keep going back into history to pick the maps that best suit him.
Unfortunately, apart from Putin (who now claims the Minsk Agreements ‘no longer exist’), all those who signed and guaranteed Minsk II (Hollande, Merkel, Poroshenko) are no longer around, and their successors seem clueless, fear-stricken and narrowly self-interested.
The UK needs its own energy and food security to prevent such blockades (wheat etc) and military aggression (gas, oil, energy) becoming a problem for daily life. Mr Trump pointed this out years ago, but the Germans just laughed at him: what a pity that none of our own UK governments did anything over the past 30 years except dream impossible green dreams.
September 14, 2022
Normally you get 10 or 20 posts from Jerry
What a pleasant change on this topic
September 15, 2022
I believe we should keep supplying Ukraine with our industrial might and also use this as an excuse to patch a hole in our own defences. Namely we lack sufficient capacity for shell and other ammo production, setting up new factories to supply Ukraine would solve this and largely pay for themselves if we sold the excess to our allies too.
As for Russia, the problem isn’t that they’ve captured, tortured and murdered civilians, shelled and rocketed civilians, or fired precision missiles into shopping malls during the mid-day.
The problem isn’t even that the Russian state has a large number of people, likely tens of thousands prepared to perform evil acts like this.
My problem is the Russian population largely do not care that their state is doing such things and many even support it. For that reason we need to keep sanctions up until we have a Russian population who oppose these sort of barbarity and thus clean up the entire state.
This will take along time, we can start by calling Russia out for her actions.
September 15, 2022
“Expect bad news from the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation as Presidents Xi and Putin meet. The future of Taiwan and Ukraine will be on the agenda as the two plot ways to assert their power, seeking to undermine self determination and independence of their neighbours.”
The Turks are there too. Is it perhaps possible that the chief pretext for the summit might be Armenia and Azerbaijan, but in reality Xi may tell Putin to stop the war in Ukraine because it is making the US and UK look good? I agree about the plotting.
September 16, 2022
It is too easy to focus on the Ukraine and Russia rather than looking at the wider picture. To move from the Scylla of Russia dependence to the Charybdis of China dependence would be an act of folly for Western energy supply. Putin is obviously looking to a mutual dance with China, supplying it with energy and trying to align global strategic positioning. It is perhaps also his personal bolthole in the event that he is deposed at home – now we see open calls for him to go. No guarantees about replacement of course.
What the West should be doing quite regardless of how those events turn is pursuing the development of fossil fuels in all friendly countries to undermine any strategic hold Russia and China may have over energy supply. We should not abandon them to the Russians and Chinese. The crisis we have is telling us that renewables will not be a solution. The premium fuel that we are prepared to pay for is gas, because it works whenever we need it.