Markets are very sanguine about the US/Israel/Iran/Hezbollah wars. They seem to assume that both the US and Iran need to come to a deal, that Israel will accept US pressure to do so, and Hezbollah/Houthi forces will come to heel. This is despite Iran an the US remaining a long way apart on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and enhanced uranium, on the policing and charges for passage through the Straits, the extent of Iran’s drone and missile capacity, and the US bases and military action in the region.
Both sides stress their strengths and their ability to carry on with a resumed war. The US can bomb more things in Iran, can blockade Iranian ports and could threaten to use specialist forces for raids or for seizing small areas of land. Iran can get re supplied with drones and missiles to threaten the US and her allies, and can use her mobile small forces to stop shipping in the Straits. Iran has proved her point that despite the US destroying much of Iran’s conventional force and killing her old leaders, the country can still continue and can remain a threat with her asymmetric warfare whilst the US has shown her capacity to dominate conventional warfare.
So will Pakistan be able to keep them talking to broker a peace? What is the acceptable answer for the US on re opening the Straits, reining in Iran’s terrorist allies and curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What does Iran intend to get over the relaxation of sanctions, the imposition of tolls on the Straits and guarantees of no further US military intervention?
A resumption of hostilities and or a failure to re open the Straits to western ships means big issues over shortages of oil, gas, and various important chemicals. That way lies more inflation , less activity and some rationing.
April 22, 2026
Good morning.
Like Ukraine – Not our problem.
April 22, 2026
I agree it shouldn’t be. But like with Ukraine, we are a belligerent. We’re giving arms and money directly to Ukraine, and letting the US use our airspace, faclities/leased bases and intel in their war. We’re as complicit as the Gulf states.
April 22, 2026
‘ What would be a good settlement in the Middle East?’
Short term or long term?
Short term – back to how things were before US/Israel started the war.
Unfortunately, from his Truth Social posts, Trump now appears to be unhinged and not really fit to be president.
Israeli politics is driven by a hardline, genocidal party that is intent on expansion into the West Bank, Lebanon etc.
Long term, the USA is now in decline and other nations will rise. The stranglehold Israel has on American foreign policy is more fully exposed, as is the power of lobbies.
April 22, 2026
Unfortunately our PM has ensured it is our problem by his influence and willingness to fun that war and supply expertise – Just imagine if he hadn’t been whispering in Zelensky’s ear to persist that war would have been over long since.
April 22, 2026
Wasn’t it some Boris who started the declared UK support to Ukraine with trips to Kyiv? And PM Sunak with £2.5bn?
I know that UK politics have been changing very fast these last few years and that sometimes it is difficult to remember who said and did what and when but it would help if before posting people were thinking for two minutes before writing, yes?
April 22, 2026
The fighting may not be, the consequences are.
April 22, 2026
@Mark B agreed
But, No10 its spokes people have stated the UK shouldn’t change its leader or government while they are needed because of the ‘war’ as the call it.
April 22, 2026
It is our problem, because so much of our economy depends on sucking the Persian Gulf teat. Our fault for allowing it to happen and disregarding the implications of the 1970s oil crisis for so long. France built a chain of nuclear power stations whilst the UK went for the cheapest short term solution.
April 22, 2026
Dave
Do we not have our own oil ? Do we not have our own natural gas ? Do we not have our own refinery facilities ?
Because if we do, then this situation can be ignored as there is nothing they sell which we do not have ourselves.
Hence why I do not care about it.
April 22, 2026
We don’t have our own oil. It’s been sold off to the energy companies for them to prospect, develop and sell to the highest bidder. If we’re lucky we’ll get a few jobs and some tax out of it.
April 22, 2026
Well, you’re not wrong except for that the powers that be completely refuse to govern in a way that would reduce the impact. I dare say the energy secretary would be ok with shortages and rationing.
April 22, 2026
@Chris – part of the ‘Plan’
April 22, 2026
A good outcome would be an Iran which is incapable of developing a nuclear weapon and preferably with the Ayatollah/Mullahs out of power.
If we then ship out all the Iranians who have forced their way into our country over the last few years and have been tolerated by the Establishment as they threaten and attack us, then so much the better.
April 22, 2026
The never ending war. Basically Islam versus the West. Most people aren’t aware of the threat posed by radical Islam, especially the so called Greens and the Alphabet brigade. As with Stalins Russia, they would be the first to be silenced.
Trump and Bibi are all too aware of the problem and it’s difficult to see a suitable outcome with the Ayatollahs remaining incharge.
I feel sorry for the majority of Iranians who just want to get on with their lives. They are a clever and resourceful nation wanting much the same as we in the west. It was a beautiful country before the revolution, let’s hope that can be the case again.
Then we have the problem of Saudi Arabia financing the spread of their creed world wide.
April 22, 2026
Very well put. I have lived and worked in Muslim countries, their attitude to a ‘deal’ is not the same as in the west. It’s kept only so long as it’s useful, and cheating an infidel counterparty wins accolades. I’m surprised the Trump people don’t know this.
April 22, 2026
Agree that Iran was, and still could be, one of the most advanced nations in the region. Saudi Arabia seem to be going a bit cool on sports promotions.
April 22, 2026
@IAN WRAGG – the disruption and additional costs due to the hostilities in the region have been on going for years. Iran for the most part appears to be their motivator and paymaster. While what we call the West, is in reality the bit at the other end(our end) of the Suez canal remains inert. Citing its nothing to do with us, we will talk to our partners, while their transport links, their people are being hung-out to dry through the in action of those that come to office with a first duty of the safety and security of their people and country.
To create these massive welfare states just as with net zero dreams cost massive amounts of money that has to be earned, you cant earn if you are not safe, secure, resilient and self-reliant – that only comes with ‘trade’, world trade.
The USA has what seems been quite reasonable, although a bit pissed that the US ‘taxpayer’ is funding the safety, security and trade of others, and being kicked in the teeth for doing so. The ships laden with cheap Chinese goods through this region are not headed to the USA, the Oil and Gas from this region are not headed to the USA. The effect on the USA is minor the effect of the lazy wasters elsewhere is massive
April 22, 2026
The US could start the war, but the ending of the war is not in their gift. Too many involved, and theprism through which we look is very different to that which Iran, Hezbollah and Israel look.
April 22, 2026
The day before Israel and the US attacked with the aid of gulf and western states, Iran had offered a significant improvement on the JCPOA. The Straight was open. No tolls.
That was the “best” deal on offer. Israel doesn’t want any deal, so it attacked and scuppered it. The US establishment is too beholden to Israeli influence (ideological, monetary, possibly blackmail) to control its “ally”.
There is no deal available now unless Iran gets most of what it wants: a civilian nuclear programme monitored in the same way all non-proliferation signatories are, the ability to trade its oil and other products, the unfettered right to defend itself and support its allies. On that last point before saying “terrorists and proxies” compare the west supporting Zelensky’s regime in Ukraine against Russian invasion with Iran supporting Hezbollah’s resistance to Israel’s invasion of south Lebanon.
The US is desparate to get out of this mess, for which it and the Israelis are to blame. Unless it stands up to Israel it won’t get out of it alone. It will need China coming to its rescue (probably not publicly, though who knows) with a deal acceptable to the Iranians. Even then, if Netenyahu’s continued freedom requires a state of war, war may continue.
April 22, 2026
The main issue is the nuclear bomb. The enriched uranium is said to be in a dangerous state under rubble and inaccessible. An agreement to remove it in a safe way under the supervision of the independent inspectorate and then putting it in a safe independent place would be a good settlement.
An agreement to open the Straits on both sides and to remove mi es on the Omani side would also be good.
And no reparations money for Iran.
April 22, 2026
A deal will surely be done as it is in everyone’s interests to have the straits open. Let us hope, for the sake of the people Iranians that the government of Iran involves rather fewer mad religious leaders and evil murderers. But then the UK is rather heading in that direction with Two Tier Kier, the Greens and the Islamophobia.
The future belongs to those who show up after all.
Many in Iran will doubtless feel this fear is not remotely irrational.
April 22, 2026
So only 50% of young British would fight for their country. Rather understandable, after all is there any point in defending a country that has open borders, two Tier Justice, appallingly organised and run defences and cannot even stop rubber dinghies or deport foreign criminals or terrorists. Plus you might get sued multiple times in your retirement by Starmer’s lawyers.
Join the Navy and see not the World but the repair dockyard!
So will World at One today point out that (contrary to the drivel) they broadcast yesterday Gas is actually a much cheaper than electricity today?
April 22, 2026
iran does not have a stable government to negotiate with, there are at least 50 factions. plus the fanatical religious extremists. so its not that easy.
April 22, 2026
A lot of questions… very hard top answer – My crystal ball is at the cleaners.
The optimum thing would be for the hostilities to stop, and perhaps Trump could offer some incentives that don’t involve bombs.
What should also be happening is that ME countries should be helping more by applying pressure and diplomacy.
April 22, 2026
But Keir Starmer is going to keep the Straits open, he announced that in Paris just the other day. So no problem. Odd he is saying he will deploy the UK military to ensure oil keeps flowing from Kuwait and Iraq while at the same time shutting down oil production from the North Sea.
April 22, 2026
@Roy Grainger – as a Great Global Statesman he also said that there are ‘Partners’ (all unnamed) that will rescue him and the UK from all conflicts.
Better to import at greater cost and with more so-called environmental damage than it is to be more resilient and less reliant on the good will of others.
April 22, 2026
An interesting use of propaganda to distort the general view about our navy.
The BBC had a documentary on the Queen Elizabeth, showing how mighty we are and how much power was at our disposal.
Seven years ago the ship went into New Yok harbour on a high profile visit.
It was far from a realistic view of our naval capabilities now, which showed very clearly how the BBC likes to mislead.
April 22, 2026
Did they mention that uniquely, Elizabeth II was a Suzerain for much of her Reign?
Should we not jus5 forget that dark period when the British Monarch agreed to become a common Citizen of the EU?
April 22, 2026
@Steve Bullion A Government and MOD strategic mistake, they thought they saved money by producing half the product that was required. It now has to be kept out of harms way as it can barely defend itself.
April 22, 2026
The documentary showed test flights of the vertical landing fighter taking 3 attempts and the very expensive missiles and bombs have to be jettisoned onto the sea before landing. There was a full band on board, except catering and crew facilities. But there’s no anti missile defence. And of course the propulsion broke down and it’s been in dock for a year.
April 22, 2026
Given the hostilities towards their own people (sounds familiar) and its neighbours curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions is the main thrust.
Pakistan itself is not squeaky clean and ‘owns’ Iran’s nuclear direction, by at the end of the day facilitating Iran’s aspirations to build what could possibly be a nuclear bomb through their own nuclear scientist Abdul Kadir Khan.
The Worlds dilemma, nuclear energy good, nuclear bombs bad.
April 22, 2026
We the UK People could send Iran our Government, our Parliament even, they have know scruples when it comes to wreaking society and a nation on the back of personal ego and political religion.
April 22, 2026
President Trump has kicked a hornets’ nest here. It may have been better to just bomb and destroy the enrichment plants and halt the production of nuclear material rather than unleash Iran’s dominance of this piece of water.
Too late now and the Iranians now know they can hold the world to ransom.
The only solutions now are appeasement or boots on the ground. Neither is satisfactory but until a Suez type canal is built across Oman, UAE and Saudi we are in a position where we can be held to ransom.
Fortunately, health and safety rules do not delay construction in that part of the world so a canal might be built relatively quickly.
In the meantime drilling our own oil and gas with the proviso that it has to be sold in the UK (we can guarantee a price for renewables why can’t we do the same for oil and gas) seems to be an interim solution.
April 22, 2026
Can’t be done or it would have been done.
Buried under Granite Mountains.
You don’t go to all that trouble for uranium for nuclear energy.
Anyway Russia offered to sell Iran nuclear material for energy plants. They refused.
I wonder why?
April 23, 2026
Iran has proven that the current arrangement can’t be maintained so some kind of pipeline, canal solution will need to be created.
There are great engineering minds in the world adept at solving problems such as this.
Of course, that would just create another single point of failure so drilling our own oil is definitely part of the solution as is nuclear long term
April 22, 2026
The discussions regarding the Middle East conflict are focused on some form of ‘deal’ between Iran and the USA. That is a very blinkered view of what is happening there and how it affects the wider world.
The USA is engaged in the conflict because Iran was very close to achieving Nuclear weapons. It already had the systems well developed and tested to deliver nuclear weapons once available.
The Israeli spy network and the Iranian resistance to the wider ambitions of the Islamic state of Iran, know what is at stake. If Iran is left to evolve its military reach via nuclear bombs, the existential threat to the entire world is real. There can be no settled peaceful existence for anyone if Iran continues down its expansive ambitions of militarising Islam, which has been their policy since 1979.
Only a complete removal of the theocratic policies and their fanatical Islamic ambition to spread their ideology across the world will stop the conflict.
The state of Israel knows the threat is real. It also knows the price will be is total annihilation if Iran is not stopped permanently from its stated cause and ambitions.
The USA knows if Israel is destroyed by nuclear attack, the Israelis have the capacity and ability to take absolute revenge and they will.
Moshe Dayan put the world on notice all those years ago as he looked down the camera lens when asked the question, what would happen if Israel’s existence was in danger….
The conflict can only end with a fully westernised none nuclear Iran.
April 22, 2026
Yes, we need Persia back.
April 22, 2026
@Rod Evans +1 well said
April 22, 2026
Agree, but how to achieve it when the western world favours appeasement now, to maintain material comfort, and closes its eyes to future threats.
April 22, 2026
It is outrageous that the UK is held hostage to international fuel prices when we have unused Gas supplies of our own in the North Sea. We need a Government that will release UK supplied Gas and use it in preference to imports.
April 22, 2026
@James Morley – part of the ‘Plan’ destroy the fabric and structure of the UK, make the USA seem to be the bad guys, thus ensuring that back under the yoke of the EU under unfavourable terms will sound like a blessing
April 22, 2026
Agree
April 22, 2026
Off Topic
‘Starmer orders Mandelson leak inquiry’ is that even right thin at this time. Worried about how everyone and the media had a different version than the narrative a lame duck leader wanted to push. Looking for someone to ‘blame’, deflection, while all the time the ‘Plan’ is thriving.
April 22, 2026
Meanwhile the ‘Plan’ has been ramped up further
‘Rachel Reeves says Britain must push for closer ties with Brussels as “we belong” in the European bloc.
The Chancellor insisted on Tuesday that the Iran war made it more important for the UK to align with EU rules to bring down inflation for households.’
energy costs, high prices all came about because of the action of Parliament and their Government, its Chancellor long before what is called the ‘Iran War’ a war we are told the UK is not involved in…. So it is the ‘Plan’ to the fore once more
April 22, 2026
Will Brussels supply the UK with jet fuel?
April 22, 2026
The classic method of kicking something into the long grass never to be seen again is to hold a public inquiry.
Starmer can claim “I am unable to comment further as there is a public inquiry underway to seek the truth, so My comments must and will be through the inquiry”.
Next
April 22, 2026
‘thin at this time’ – thing at this time
lazy checking, following the lead of the UK Parliament, predictive text is always correct!
April 22, 2026
Iran is certainly winning the propaganda war and is playing the long game against Trump. They simply have to survive and Donald has the mid-terms coming up. However the IRGC is not only a military and political organisation but also has it’s fingers deep into the Iranian economy. Loyalty has to be paid for, as do large proxie armies. Trump can’t invade Iran but he certainly can strangle it’s economy. Given time and some friendly support he can also open the Straights of Hormuz. It’s a game of poker with a lot of bluffing going on.
In the meanwhile, the Gulf war is providing economic cover for Reeves damaging tax regime & Millibands Net-Zero fanaticism.
April 22, 2026
Only on CNN and the BBC ….
April 22, 2026
There can be no ‘good settlement’ with the murderous, terrorist ruling regime in Iran. They murder their own people daily for having the temerity to protest. It is reported that over 40,000 have been executed this year and it continues. For some reason, politicians and MSM in this country ignore these atrocities. Any deal agreed with such people will be meaningless, as has been previously demonstrated.
April 22, 2026
8 young women are about to be hanged. They will be raped before hanging. Tr7mp is pleading for them.
Where is the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Pope?
April 22, 2026
Trump has secured the release of 4 of these women and the other 4 will spend a month in jail.
This is a huge and positive intervention – it proved that Trump packs a punch too.
Thank God!
April 22, 2026
They’ve all got stockholm syndrome, including the british establishment
April 22, 2026
The reason the Political and Media class here ignore the Islamic Republic’s 47 years of atrocities is that they want you to concentrate on hating Israel. Ayatollah BBC’s Anna Foster and Jeremy Bowen spoke of Iran being a distraction, [i.e. a distraction from Gaza.] That was in the same week that 40-80,000 Iranians had been butchered in their own streets by the IRGC and Basic. Now, with so many sadistic murderers having been eliminated by the Americans and Israelis, the Islamic Republic is importing Iraqi, Pakistani, Afghani, and “English” jihadis to do the job instead. The Iraqis are the most battle hardened. But still no word from Lyse Doucet or Alex Crawford. Only sentimental representation of the Hezbollah and Islamic Republic positions up against the evil Israelis.
April 22, 2026
Stop bothering us with small details Brian. It doesn’t fit with the simple (black & white) “narrative” we are all supposed to be following. It’s very simple. Trump and Israel are the bad guys and everyone else is being bullied by them (except Mr Starner of course)
The truth is far more nuanced but there is so much propaganda being pushed around (by both sides) that it’s very hard to really know what is going on. The only thing I’m sure of is that our media is not as neutral as I’d like…
April 22, 2026
Agree.
April 22, 2026
Fact check needed on 40,000
April 22, 2026
On four occasions our host uses “her” to describe Iran. The Ayatollahs would be horrified.
April 22, 2026
It was a clever move to send Vance to Pakistan because now even he understands it is not possible to negotiate with the Islamic Republic; and he is now clear the IRGC cannot have a nuclear weapon or intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Ayatollah BBC continues to give moral superiority to the death cult and parrot its demands. Qatari funded Sky News is the same. So is Qatari funded CNN. All this skewed news is misleading for people who are busy and have other things to think about. It really looks as if the Islamic Republic has won.
The reason Trump has relented on the ceasefire is that the Death Cult has been so roundly beaten it cannot organize itself, even to have talks. It has a terrifying sadist to represent it in the Speaker, but others want to do that too. That is why such a large contingent turned out last time, very IRGC heavy.
If the Americans resume action, expect it to be something different. Not a bombing campaign.
April 22, 2026
Yes. A lot of activity is to demonstrate the uncompromising nature of Islam.
Trump understands how important it is to take people with him.
April 22, 2026
A good settlement would be regime change in Iran, releasing its people to run a prosperous modern economy. It should be one of the richest countries in the world. Trump was advised that Iran and the Mullahs were weeks away from making a nuclear bomb. A nuclear-armed Iran would use nuclear weapons to hit and wipe out Israel. Israel would respond, and we would be in WW3 before we knew it.
The straits must be reopened for all traffic FOC, either by agreement or force.
President Trump needs to squeeze the life out of the Iranian economy. The thugs in the IRGC, the Military and the Police hold power only while they are being paid. Stop the money flowing in, and their loyalty will soon be tested.
The Americans must be in it for the ,lopng term or they won’t win.
April 22, 2026
Iran charging tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz would contravene UNCLOS Arts 41-45. Surely our nasty little international lawyer in No 10 would not allow that (Britain would have to agree in order to use the Strait) and if Trump acceded to it Starmer would, no doubt condemn Trump. Anyway there is no way states could legitimately agree to such a toll deal since doing so would breach the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. UNCLOS would first have to be amended to make Iran an exception. It is hoped that Reza Pahlavi and his loyalists will be able to form a new government, althhough a clear path to that has yet to emerge.
The mainstream media does not cover these aspects at all
April 22, 2026
Ms Reeves is already raising taxes at the fastest rate in the G7, having announced increases of £67.5bn at her past two Budgets.
The Resolution Foundation urged the Chancellor to raise taxes further to “avoid letting a ‘good crisis go to waste’”.
The warning is likely to attract attention in Downing Street, given the think tank’s close links to Labour. Its previous boss Torsten Bell is now pensions minister, while the Resolution Foundation has also acted as a launchpad for several key Treasury figures, including Dan Tomlinson, the exchequer secretary.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/22/war-in-iran-threatens-to-blow-16bn-hole-in-reevess-plans/
The ‘Plan’ the destruction ‘Plan’ is embedded in this UK Parliament. The highest taxes in the G7 is a badge of honour, of course they have nothing to do with the crisis in the UK economy, that’s down to ‘the War’, Brexit and the Tory’s.
April 22, 2026
Elsewhere we read that Putin, Russia, is still pumping oil down a big pipeline into the EU. And enjoy the payments he receives. Meaning the EU is not affected by the supply situation
April 22, 2026
It is. It’s paying a premium for the lie that it’s Indian Oil.
April 22, 2026
Someone has to pay for her new portrait circa £3,000
April 22, 2026
The Islamic President, Foreign Minister, and Speaker have gone quiet, said to be under house arrest. The Speaker has an account manned by the IRGC in California which posted 25 minutes ago. The new Supreme Leader who is said to be in a coma minus a leg has an account which posts, but hasn’t posted since April 18th. The conjecture is that the IRGC has completed its coup as of yesterday.
April 22, 2026
PMQ question that nobody asked today-
‘If Olly Robbins and the FO followed the correct procedures, why was Olly Robbins sacked with immediate effect …what was his gross misconduct in office ?’