Mr Redwood’s contribution to the debate on Confidence in the Secretary of State for Transport, 19 June 2018

John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con): We have been invited by the Opposition to debate a general motion of no confidence in my right hon. Friend the Transport Secretary. I have full confidence in my right hon. Friend. He inherited a difficult task from the last Labour Government and the coalition Government. I think that he fully understands the magnitude of that task and that he is coming up with a number of creative proposals to try to improve the position.

Andy McDonald (Middlesbrough) (Lab): It is a disaster.

John Redwood: I entirely agree with the hon. Gentleman that, for 13 years, Labour did not invest in our roads and railways to give us the capacity that we need. I fully accept that during its five years in government, the coalition was unable to invest on the necessary scale because of the financial disaster that it inherited from the outgoing Labour Government.

We have had almost 20 years of totally inadequate investment in road and rail capacity. We now have a growing economy. Many more people have jobs and need to get to work, many more children need to get to school, and many more people want to go to the shops or need to go to hospital, so we are simply running out of road and rail capacity. My right hon. Friend is trying to use every method he can legally lay his hands on to address that chronic lack of capacity.

In my constituency, another 12,000 new homes are being built quite rapidly, and the pressures on our infrastructure are enormous. I witnessed some of the difficulties due to rail delays on Thursday and Friday when I was trying to use services in and out of Reading and there were disruptions. My right hon. Friend has asked the extremely well-paid leaders of the railway industry to get a grip on their services and ensure they deliver on the infrastructure available. But he has gone further than that: he has said to the railways that they will need much more capacity in the years ahead to deal with fast-growing places such as Wokingham, and he has therefore said that digital technology will make a big difference.

I fully support his strong initiative. The very lengthy and expensive process of creating entirely new railway lines is not a feasible solution across the country, so the way to get more capacity out of our existing railways is to use digital signalling, meaning that instead of being able to run only 20 trains an hour on perfectly good track, we can run 25 or more trains an hour, giving a big boost to capacity for a relatively modest investment.

My right hon. Friend is also right to recognise that he will need private sector as well as public sector investment. I noted that the Scottish National party spokesperson, who clearly did not know the figures, was unable to respond to an intervention about how, in his party’s fully nationalised world, it would replace the large sums of capital and the considerable sums of revenue that the private sector tips into the railways as the partnership model develops.

The Labour party is with the SNP on this. It always denies that any fault rests with the nationalised section of the railway, yet in the latest set of problems, particularly in Northern rail, big errors were made by the heavily subsidised nationalised part of the industry. I am very glad that my right hon. Friend says there will be new leadership there, because new leadership is desperately needed to supervise the expenditure of the very substantial sums that this Parliament has voted for that industry and to make sure they are well spent.

Another reason why I have confidence in my right hon. Friend is because he recognises that we need road as well as rail capacity, because the overwhelming majority of all our constituents’ journeys are still undertaken by car or van or bus, and they require road capacity.

The most welcome thing he has done so far is to say we need not just to expand the strategic national highways network, which of course we do, but a strategic local network so that we can beef up the A roads. That would mean that we could have more through traffic, meaning that vehicles would be taken away from residential areas and town centres, where we do not want conflict between traffic, pedestrians and cyclists. It would also free some of the blocks on the existing highways and provide better journeys.

I hope that as my right hon. Friend goes about selecting that strategic local route network with councils, he will look favourably on the bids from West Berkshire and Wokingham in my area. We have put a lot of thought into them and wish to make progress, but we will need substantial investment to create better access routes to the main cities and centres of employment, because the existing network is already well over capacity in terms of congestion.

I hope my right hon. Friend will also consider the interface between the rail and road networks. One of the big issues in my area is that we cannot get over the railway line. We rely on level crossings, but their gates are down for a lot of the time at busy periods for the railways, meaning that we get massive onward congestion in the road system. We therefore need money for bridges.

I also hope that work on the strategic local road network will involve looking at junctions. A modest way in which we could get much more capacity out of the current road network would be to improve junctions. It is often a good idea to have roundabouts rather than traffic lights, and another good idea is the better phasing of traffic lights. Traffic lights can be fitted with sensors so that if there is no traffic on an approach road, that road does not get a green phase. Roads should get a green phase only when somebody needs that.

There are many things that can be done. I have every confidence that my right hon. Friend wants to do them, so will he please get on with that, and will Parliament allow him to do so?

Visit to Bohunt School

Today I visited Bohunt at their request. It was good to see the large and stylish new building, with plenty of growing room for the school as it expands its numbers one year group at a time.

The school walls are enlivened by some great quotes chosen by the pupils. We are told genius is 1% Inspiration and 99% perspiration. We are advised that Logic can get you from A to B but imagination can get you anywhere. The general drift of the aphorisms is to encourage creative thinking. self reliance, and a love of learning. The School’s catchphrase is Enjoy, Respect, Achieve.

I spent some time with the pupils on the School Council answering their questions about Parliament. I also asked them a few of my own. They told me they thought modern learning was made easier by the use of the ipad. They thought their electronic library met more of their demands than the traditional book library. They had no suggestions for me or their Head on how to improve their school, seeming content with their great surroundings and the ambience created by the teachers.

Well said, US Ambassador. We will do well from Brexit

It is a timely reminder to the gloomy parts of the UK establishment. Brexit is full of opportunities. The Chancellor tells us the Treasury is not against Brexit, so will they cheer up and stop trying to recreate every feature of our membership of the EU as we leave?

Lets speed it up. Some of us want things to be better and want to get on with the changes.  The Treasury should be leading the demands to get our money back as soon as possible, not saying we need to go on paying them.

Where are we on the road to Brexit?

It has been a slow process so far, thanks to the delay imposed by the courts over sending the Article 50 letter.

There were always four tasks to complete for exit after the referendum decision. We have now completed the first two.

We have sent a formal notification to leave. This fulfils all the Treaty requirements to leave, and has a date of 29 March 2019 for our departure. It means our departure is valid in international law.

We have now passed legislation to ensure the UK Parliament and courts take back control the day we leave the EU. This also ensures legal continuity, providing that all current EU law remains in force as UK law on exit day, which had to be that same 29 March 2019 date.

We now need to see if there is a deal concerning our future relationship that the government thinks is worthwhile. The EU wishes us to sign a Withdrawal Agreement, but this is not a legal requirement of the Treaty and would presumably only occur if the UK government is satisfied that its terms are reasonable and it is complemented by a good future relationship agreement.

The final act will be Parliament’s decision as to whether we should accept the government’s deal and implement that in UK law, or whether we should leave without a deal.

Some have sought to turn the Parliamentary decision on the final deal into a vote between the deal and not leaving the EU, rather than a vote on whether to leave with or without the deal on offer. This was the underlying agenda to the arguments about a “meaningful vote”. It was finally wisely agreed not to put instructions to Parliament on how we should proceed after the deal has or has not been concluded into law.

It is difficult to understand why some want Parliament to be able to veto Brexit at the end of the process. After all the referendum decision was made by the people, and the Parliament voted overwhelmingly to leave when it voted for the Article 50 letter to be sent. The UK would be in an exceptionally weak or absurd position if Parliament vetoed the deal on offer and vetoed leaving without a deal. Why would the EU want to improve its offer in those circumstances? And how and why would the EU take the UK back into membership on current terms?

The anti Brexit forces claim to be new champions of Parliamentary sovereignty after all those years when they were busy giving it away to Brussels. They have to accept that Parliament has decided to leave and made that clear when it sent the letter. They also need to remember that 3 times now the Commons has voted by large majorities against staying in the single market and customs union. A mature sovereign body has to recognise when it has made a decision.

The government’s flexible friend

UK PUBLIC FINANCES

 

At the Budget (March 2017) The Treasury forecast £58.3bn of borrowings in 2017-18.

The out-turn was 30% lower, at £40.5bn

At the same Budget the Treasury forecast £40.8bn borrowings in 2018-19. This has since been reduced to a forecast £37.1bn. Early figures suggest the Treasury has again overestimated the borrowing.

The Treasury also say they need to reduce the outstanding debt, which is at £1800 bn. or 85.1% of GDP. They need to remember this is a gross figure. The UK state has bought in £435 bn of debt which it therefore no longer owes. The state net debt is £1365bn or 64.5% of GDP. This is a relatively low figure for advanced nations, and eminently sustainable.

The government did not herald tax rate rises in the Manifesto, and there is no need for them to finance the NHS and other priorities. In some cases lower tax rates could bring in greater revenues, as the cut in top rate Income tax did. What is needed is a policy to promote faster growth from the current slower growth brought on by monetary tightening and tax rises on homes and cars.

The NHS spending can be paid for by a mixture of the proceeds of growth and the savings on EU contributions. In the short term borrowing can be allowed to go up to forecast levels, as it has been running well below official forecasts for some time.

 

Update: Today’s figures for May confirm the trend to undershoot. They have now lowered 2017/18 further to £39.5bn, some £18.8bn below their forecast!  The year to date  2018-19 is 25% down on 2017-18 so far, though that is just two months.  Receipts on income and wealth are up by a large 6%, with spending growing by 2.5% plus a 4.5% increase in benefit costs.

 

Paying for local schools

I renewed my request for better settlements for local schools in my meeting yesterday with the Education Secretary. I have regularly lobbied for a better overall settlement for Education, and for a better share of the total for Wokingham and West Berkshire. We have a strong case as the per pupil amounts for our schools are  low by national standards. The government has accepted the need both to increase the total, and to improve the relative position of areas like ours that are at the bottom of the table for cash. We are discussing the magnitude and speed of improvement.

I also made the point about the problems for schools adjusting to sudden declines in pupil numbers. In order to operate a system allowing parent and student choice, and  to cope with rising pupil numbers overall, it is  necessary for more places to be available than there are pupils to fill them. If one or two schools suffer a sharp fall owing to say the opening of a new school nearby, this can cause problems for them in handling the budget consequences.

The Secretary of State promised to get back to me with a considered written reply to these points.

How much money do we save when we leave the EU?

I see some contributors here are out to belittle the amount of money we save when we leave the EU. Let me set out the official figures again:

OBR March 2018  p217 EU financial settlement

 

2019 figures (assuming we still pay full amount that year)

GNI based contribution   17.7bn Euro

VAT payments to EU         3.4bn Euro

Own resources (customs)   3.8bnEuro

TOTAL GROSS CONTRIBUTION   24.9bn Euro

UK rebate      4.7bn Euro

Public sector receipts  (money back)  6.3bn Euro

NET CONTRIBUTION   (Gross payments minus rebate and cash back) 13.9bn E   (£12bn)

We could save all this if we leave with no  deal or an improved deal. If we leave with Withdrawal commitments we will save all this once the transition and leaving payment is over.

 

 

Meeting with Education Secretary

I am meeting the Education Secretary this afternoon to go through the case for better levels of school funding in Wokingham and West Berkshire. The final budgets for 2018-19 for Wokingham schools total £98.742 million, compared to £94.45m last year, an increase of 4.5% This increase does have to take care of the rise in pupil numbers as well as providing for rising costs. The largest rise for an individual school is for Bohunt as it expands, taking on more pupils. In contrast the Forest and Emmbrook experienced a  reduction in  pupil numbers  with adverse consequences for funding, as the per pupil element is an important part of the total.

Evendons BBQ

I would like to thank our  hosts for the Evendons Ward Conservative BBQ on Sunday. The rain stayed away and we had an enjoyable meal with good company in the garden. Borough Councillors were  present so those who wanted an  update  on local matters could get one.