The third quarter figures for UK growth were a record – up 15.5%. So far so good.

That was not nearly enough. It was the direct result of the large collapse the previous quarter under lockdown, and the efforts of the Treasury to get the housing market moving with a Stamp Duty cut and the restaurant trade working with generous special incentives.

If we look at the IMF forecasts for 2020 growth around the world we see a much better outlook for the USA, at minus 3.5% for the whole year, compared to the main European countries clustered either side of 10% down for the year. Their forecasts are not going to be that wide of the mark, looking at the latest third quarter figures. They see Spain down 12.8%, Italy 10.6%, France and the UK both down 9.8% and Germany down 6%. All but Germany have been very badly damaged by the virus and by the economic measures taken to counter it.

So why has the USA done so much better? After all its own virus death rate is similar to the UK’s and considerably higher than Germany’s. Large parts of the USA escaped full lock down, which helped. More importantly the Fed put in a much bigger boost than the Bank of England or the ECB which helped a lot. The US has many more of the large and successful tec corporations which boomed on the back of us all moving to an on line world for so many things. Old shops in Europe closed temporarily or permanently whilst people went shopping with Amazon.

The UK government needs to learn from the US experience. President Trump’s tax cuts helped. The deregulations helped. The technology clusters helped. Above all a very responsive Central Bank that promised to do whatever it needed to save the US economy and the world turned things round from their decisive interventions at the end of March.

The decision of the two Vote Leave advisers to move on must not get in the way of an early end to the talks with the EU and a clear decision to leave without a bad Agreement. Only if the EU has removed its demands for our fish, to control our laws and to impose their Court as part of an Arbitration system is it worth continuing talks about a Free Trade Agreement.

I have always urged the UK to prepare for No Deal, as it was always possible the EU would fail to deliver the Free Trade Agreement that is in their interest. They promised one in the Political Declaration then failed to propose one.

No Deal has always been better than a bad deal. It seems the EU only wishes to offer a bad deal, so let’s get on with leaving the single market. Weak UK negotiating under the previous government where Parliament was determined to help the EU not us made getting a good deal less likely. We now need to enforce the sovereignty clause in the Withdrawal Act.

I made the mistake of agreeing to an interview from German TV yesterday in London. I assume as they are intelligent people, their pro EU bullying questions presumably came from the EU and or the German authorities.

Why were we risking a border in Ireland? I explained again the UK was not proposing any new physical barriers. They seemed to think there was no border at the moment, ignoring the obvious differences between the UK and the Republic of Ireland . There is already an Excise and Vat Border.

But surely there would need to be a border for the tariffs, they asked? The current border can handle tariffs in the same way as we handle excise and VAT today. There is a free travel area which will continue. The only threat of new physical border controls comes from the EU. How many more times do we have to explain this? Why do they never ask the EU what they are playing at using the border issue in this way? What controls will the EU place on their side of the border?

I was asked why we are breaking the Good Friday Agreement. I explained we are not. They could not explain which clause of it we were alleged to be breaking. We were not planning a new physical border, as above.

I was asked why we are breaking international law. I explained we are not. We are making new UK law to govern our trade and our own single market which was one of the main points of Brexit. Our implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement was always partial as we included in the legislated version an overriding soveriegnty clause which we are going to need to use given their persistent wish to boss us about.

I was asked how we would handle Tge tariffs when they come in. I explained that we would decide what tariffs to impose on imports, not them. I pointed out that their high tariffs were reserved for foodstuffs from outside the EU, where we have a massive trade deficit with them. The issue is how will they manage our tariffs as exporters to us, if they renege on their promise to agree a tariff free trade deal.

I was posed the usual false question based on the presumption that you cannot trade without a Free Trade Agreement, and more of the same old absurdities we have faced for five years now.

It’s time to end the talks. The EU is not acting in good faith. No deal is a lot better than the kind of one sided deal the EU still has in mind for us.

The government should move on from lockdown to levelling up.

The response to CV 19 has accelerated trends to more on line shopping, more homeworking and more remote delivery of services and entertainment.

This will require a renewal and revision to the policy of levelling up.

The great towns and cities outside London and the south east will need more help in rebuilding and transforming against the background of the damage done by lockdowns and closures.

The government needs to think about how it can assist the Councils and encourage the private sector to undertake the transformational work needed in town and city centres.

It is working on ways of making it easier for building owners to change the use of their property or to knock down and rebuild something better geared to the new circumstances.

It could propose partnerships with developers and property owners to remodel areas of towns and cities scarred by past and recent events, and to utilise any planning gain for the betterment of the area and the success of the project.

It is also going to take a better package to encourage self employment and the growth of small business. The Treasury’s instinct to tax them too much should be restrained.

It also needs more roll out of the government’s training and educational offers. The UK above all needs to encourage a new generation of technology specialists and entrepreneurs, as the future is digital.

It is fascinating that a possible vaccine is announced as producing good test results shortly after the US election. Apparently there needs to be more time to evaluate it, with a possible appeal for Regulatory approval starting before the end of this month. The method used is new, and the team developing it will need approval to go to accelerated production and roll out as the request will be before usual testing procedures are exhausted.

The company will need to file details of side effects and the results of their safety tests, as well as latest evidence on how effective it is at preventing people catching CV 19. Apparently people need to be vaccinated twice over a 3 week period to gain reasonable immunity. No-one yet knows how long the beneficial effects will last.

I have some questions about this. How willing would you be to take such a vaccine if approved soon? Should the early doses available go to the most vulnerable and to health workers at risk, as is suggested?

At what point can governments then relax their controls and allow us to return to more normal lives? As it has been the wish of many of the scientific and medical advisers of governments to use vaccines to end this crisis they should now spell out to us how long we have to wait for them to be satisfied that enough vaccine has been administered to fulfil their wishes. They have been reluctant to offer us a Plan B, so the least they can do is to tell us what are the timings and trigger points for declaring success on the vaccine route.

Today Mr Trump’s lawyer stated they had good evidence about people trying to vote in person only to discover their vote had already been cast. In Nevada they think votes were cast by people not living in the state. There are also in some states issues about delivery and dates of postal votes.

This confirms the likelihood of a month of rallies and court cases to seek to reverse Mr Biden’s current lead prior to certification of the vote. It is most important only valid votes are counted.

I did not send my draft letter yesterday and will pause as these issues develop.

The government’s advisers this year from the scientific and medical professions have concentrated on one main preoccupation, getting the numbers of deaths down at any given time from CV 19.

This has resulted in a policy which does not give much weight to getting deaths down from other causes by ensuring a full service NHS that can handle all the other conditions that can become dangerous or fatal if they go untreated. I have highlighted how treatments for other conditions have fallen off markedly . I have also drawn attention to the danger of cross infection all the time CV 19 patients are treated in General hospitals or are sent back to Care homes prematurely after treatment.

It has also meant much greater priority has been given to delaying CV 19 infection spread rather than consideration of the impact on jobs and livelihoods, which in turn can have a knock on effect on mental health. There have been no government published graphs and charts chronicling the likely loss of jobs, bankruptcies of companies and withdrawal of self employed services when lockdowns strike.

The scientific and medical professions have made important strides in understanding the virus and its spread, and have found some treatments that help. They have not been able yet to find a vaccine that will prevent the disease in the future, nor treatments that ensure most people getting the serious form of the disease will recover. This makes it important that the Cabinet asks what is the point of a lockdown if it merely delays rather than stops the progress of the virus? How does a rolling lockdown help, given the way that will do more damage to livelihoods and business?

I will take up again with the government a number of ways of helping us live with the virus and blunting its spread and impact as have to do so. These include

1. Establishing Isolation hospitals or Isolation wings with separate entrances and strong infection control for CV 19
2. Further evaluation of existing drugs and vitamin treatments that can prevent, abate or cure the disease in more cases
3. More advice and help to private sector building and events managers on setting up the space and airflows to cut the risk of infection
4. A renewed drive to help the NHS get back to pre March levels of work in non Covid activity.
5. Freeing the private hospitals from public contracts that may be holding back the amount of work they do, whilst buying slots in them for specified patients where that offers value for money and extra capacity is still needed
6. Easing restrictions on road travel so more people can get to work or the shops by car more easily, given the government’s statement of risks on trains and buses.

The lock down should be lifted soon. case numbers were levelling out before it was imposed.

Those who write in to point out there is as yet no official confirmed US election result are correct. It is also true some more votes might turn up. However, the world sees a substantial margin of votes and Electoral College votes for Mr Biden who will now act as President elect and be generally accepted as such. Only if Mr Trump publishes convincing evidence of substantial voter fraud in several swing states and that is upheld in state law courts will the present indicative result be overturned. So far Mr Trump has not produced such evidence.

(This draft open letter has not yet been sent to Mr Biden .I am grateful for comments on it)

Dear Mr Biden

Congratulations on your victory. Gaining more votes than any previous President and getting above 50% of the popular vote gives you a clear mandate for your policy of uniting the USA.

Your opponent succeeded in boosting his vote by an impressive 8 million extra votes, demonstrating considerable support for his Republican vision of growth promoted by lower taxes, putting America first when dealing with China, promoting peace in the Middle East, and protecting individual liberties. It is a pity he has chosen to query the election outcome without setting out convincing evidence of the voter fraud he alleges. It makes your task of uniting America more difficult. The U.K. respects democratic mandates and agrees with you that the results of counting all the valid votes are the sacred instruction of the people which all true democrats respect.

The U.K. looks forward to working with you as President. Our two countries often find ourselves in agreement. We think NATO remains a fundamental part of our security. The U.K. makes an important financial and military contribution to the Alliance and is willing to help the USA secure similar pledges from other members. We support US efforts to secure peace in the Middle East. Through the 5 Eyes arrangements we co operate closely on intelligence. We agree on the need to be vigilant to Russian and Chinese cyber threats, and to take a robust position over trade cheating.

I must stress that the U.K. does uphold the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. As we leave the EU we have no plans to impose a hard border between the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland, contrary to false EU rumours. It is the EU which seems to be planning new border controls on their side of the border which you may like to take up with them. The UK’s EU referendum gave us a larger percentage mandate for exit than your own convincing win, so you will understand the importance to us of becoming a truly independent country again on 1 January next year. As such we can be of more assistance in world trade and foreign policy matters, and look forward to working with you where our views and policies align.

Yours sincerely

John Redwood