It is that time of year when advisers to the Prime Minister have to consider the first draft of the big speech she has to give to party conference in Birmingham in the first week of October.
The Chequers proposals have gone down very badly with the party in the country. The negotiations with the EU have not produced a break through for Britain in the way the government wanted. The Prime Minister should say something along the following lines:
“I have worked hard with my team to try to negotiate a good exit deal for the UK. I have always been friendly and positive towards the EU. I have stressed we would prefer to have a comprehensive future partnership. I have offered to maintain the substantial contribution we provide to European security through our pledge of armed forces, our intelligence work and our general collaboration. I would be happy to keep tariff free trade between us, even though we import much more than we export. I have offered to pay money we do not owe to show goodwill over the EU’s process of adjustment to the ending of our large financial contributions. I have offered to maintain the rules and standards of the single market for goods even after we have left.
Many of you think I have offered too much. Some of you are concerned that we would not in practice be taking back control of our laws, our money and our borders as promised. I think we would, but I understand your worries.
I am therefore today withdrawing the very generous Chequers offer, which the EU has told us does not go far enough.The EU has also been critical of important parts of the compromise it embedded. So I say to the EU, in the time remaining time to do a deal, I propose we negotiate a comprehensive free trade treaty instead.
Some say this cannot be done in just a few months. I disagree. If there is a will there is a way. Both the UK and the EU have accepted the Canada Free Trade deal the EU has recently signed. We can take that text as our starting point, and see what more we can add to it, given that the UK and the EU start on trade and commerce regulation from the same position.
In the meantime I have recently chaired a Cabinet to stress to all Ministers and senior officials in all Brexit facing departments that I want us to be ready to leave without a Withdrawal Agreement in March 2019. I stressed that the government will provide whatever resource is needed to be ready. The problems have been greatly exaggerated. I know of no reason why the planes will not fly or the medicines cease to arrive the day after we have left. Where lower level agreements or understandings are needed between the EU authorities and the UK government we are ready to put them in place. These will be mutually beneficial, and more profitable to the rest of the EY given the large imbalance of trade between us.
August 27, 2018
Not a single word about Ireland! Your little englander mentality stinks, Mr Redwood.
Reply There is no Irish border problem as I have explained many times before
August 27, 2018
Speak to your PM. He’s the one with a problem.
August 27, 2018
JR, your view is for the birds. May’s behaviour has shown her to be a liar, underhand, disloyal and dishonest. The trust is gone. There is no coming back from this. Your main dilemma is Boles and co will not accept no deal because May deliberately lost that vote to Grieve early on as a back stop not to leave the EU and you do not have enough votes to oust her with confidence that she might get voted back in.
Have courage, submit letters of no confidence. The public detest her, do not trust her and she is a liability to your party, but more importantly a liability to the integrity of our nation. This is a question of fact. May is a remainer, all her behaviour has been directed towards that endeavour. What is surprising is why it has taken so many of you so long to find out when there were so many clues to her treachery over the last two years. Her behaviour at Christmas was the most obvious to any objective observer.
What on earth non job Fox is doing, along with Leadsom, McVey and others is beyond belief.
May should be gone by the conference and not allowed to utter another word. What do you hope Hammond giving an encore! Please wake up and take action.
August 27, 2018
It really is a mystery why all those Tory Brexit MPs have not stood up to be counted. I live in hope they have a cunning plan and are biding their time for the right moment seeing as they only get one shot a year at getting rid of her.
Let’s hope the Tory conference brings about her downfall.
August 27, 2018
Dear Jools–I hope for unrelenting slow hand-clappimg combined with loud boos and hissing and even rotten tomaties–She deserves all that and more–Her judgement is appalling, she is unconvincing and depressing, she lies through her teeth, she has no charisma, and she has humiliated us. Ditch the you-know-what.
August 28, 2018
Leslie Singleton “I hope for unrelenting slow hand-clapping combined with loud boos and hissing and even rotten tomatoes –She deserves all that and more …”
And that would just be for her failed attempt at Dad Dancing in South Africa.
August 27, 2018
Hope – I fully agree with your comments however the Conservative Party central office and the ESTABLISHMENT will NEVER allow a Brexiteer to become PM. If there is a vote by the party to remove MAY and BORIS and or others run, I guarantee the party will put forward other REMAINER candidates. The tactical voting will guarantee a REMAINER gets the job. Loyalty to the ESTABLISHMENT is foremost, NOT the country. That is how MAY got her job. She is and was the ESTABLISHMENT choice. I have always voted conservative until recent times. They conservative party is finished therefore we need to vote UKIP. We as a people have NOTHING to lose. What other choice do we have?
August 28, 2018
I understand your point but by ridding May from the party will give a clear unequivocal message the public will not accept another like her or remain by another name. A weak remainer like Javid might make it. Best put the cat among the pigeons. She needs to be ousted from public life she has failed the Nolan standards in public life and betrayed the nation. Doing nothing is not an option. To do so would reflect on the the whole party as a bunch of cowards tarnished by her disgraceful conduct.
August 27, 2018
There is no Irish Border problem. The concocted Irish Border problem shows that the European Union is a disgrace.
There is no Swiss Border problem. Switzerland is not in the EU, Customs Union or Single Market. therefore there is not Irish border problem.
The EU would never demand Bavaria “align” all its laws with Austria. Or France “align” its laws with Catalonia.
That is because the EU is run by France and Germany for the benefit if France and Germany, helped by the puppet commissioners from Belgium and Luxembourg.
August 27, 2018
Our helpful Swiss friends: https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/967273/brexit-news-jacob-rees-mogg-uk-border-EU-customs-union-swiss-model-switzerland
“But the ease with which £425billion worth of goods passes in and out of Switzerland every year makes a mockery of the EU’s position that Northern Ireland might have to remain in the EU customs union while the rest of the UK leaves it.
Switzerland remains outside the customs union yet each day 2.1 million people, 1.1 million cars and 24,000 lorries cross the border, making it one of the busiest in Europe.
Running the Swiss digital frontier costs £639 million a year”
The UK’s customs costs for EU trade are currently far higher pro-rata than Switzerland’s. HMRC CDS roll-out should reduce the gap: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/16/how-modern-borders-work/#comment-955081
August 27, 2018
A Swiss friend from Zürich recently told me the consensus there is the UK is in all sorts of difficultie and he’s yet to read a positive piece on Brexit in any newspaper.
August 27, 2018
Varadkar says that the EU has told the Irish government there will be no hard border needed even in a no-deal situation: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/07/19/the-wto-global-trading-model-and-mr-barnier-time-for-the-media-to-mend-its-language/#comment-948839 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-calms-varadkar-s-fears-of-physical-border-checks-after-brexit-1.3569485
August 27, 2018
Well, there’s a relief! The British government thinks there is an Irish border problem, the Irish government thinks there is an Irish border problem, the EU thinks there is an Irish border problem, everyone who knows the first thing about Ireland thinks there is an Irish border problem, but John Redwood says there is no Irish border problem. Phew! Are there any other things that you can assure us are “no problem”, Mr Redwood? Perhaps non tariff barriers, phytosanitary inspections, division of quotas at the WTO, application of EU FTAs to the UK, lack of spare port capacity? Your expertise would be so very helpful, so no more time need be wasted on these non-problems!
August 27, 2018
Well there is a problem if the EU or the Irish wish to make it one, but it would not be in their interest to do so.
August 27, 2018
Lifelogic..the problem is already there and is not going to go away..we know, because it has been said many times before there will be no movement on a future deal without first getting satisfactory agreement on the withdrawal, as they see it.
Also don’t forget we are the ones leaving and causing this perceived upset..and while we’re at it.. we mustn’t forget about the Gibraltar situation where it now seems that Spain has a veto on any new EU /UK deal going forward..should be the easiest deal in history..we’ll see
August 27, 2018
No deal is fine by me. WTO terms is the best outcome and the Irish and EU can do what they want with their side of the border, the Uk will not change a thing on its side. No need to.
The Irish border scam is not an issue. The withdrawal agreement needs to be voted down it is of no use to the UK whatsoever, it is a vassal state agreement akin to racketeering. No legal standing or authority, no legal liability. No money owed. On the other hand UK assets to be paid in full by the EU no contribution or any other ongoing funds until the EU settles its debts to the U.K. No fishing boats wanted in U.K. Territorial waters either from March 2019. Time for the UK got to promote UK interests.
May capitulation is the behaviour of a traitor and should be treated as such. She has no madate from the referendum, her manifesto, or chequers plan to act on the nation’s behalf. She has betrayed the nation and must be forced to go.
August 29, 2018
We are not in the Euro or Schengen so the only upset is the EU losing our cash. Nobody who voted to come out cares if there is a deal or not. WTO rules are just fine. As we are in a trade deficit with the Europe we’ll be net winners from tariffs and we’ll get cheaper goods from outside the EU. The important thing is taking back control of things that should never have been ceded.
Gibraltar was a problem with Francoist Rajoy in charge but he has gone. The Socialists care more about the jobs Gibraltar brings to the La Linea area.
August 28, 2018
Lifelogic
Typical Brexiteer excuse – it’s everybody else’s fault
I suppose a recurring IRA threat is just another bit of Scotch mist?
August 27, 2018
Helena. There is plenty of evidence on this blog to show that a border need not be a problem in Ireland. It’s only the EU and people like you who want there to be a problem that are intent on creating it. You are obviously not old enough to remember when the UK stood on its own and managed perfectly well.
August 28, 2018
The UK managed perfectly well?
So why did we beg to be allowed to join the EU which has turned us from the ‘sick man of Europe’ into the world’s 5th largest economy now alas already reduced to 7th place since Brexit?
Britain was on the verge of collapse before it joined the European community. Industry was collapsing, interest rates were spiralling and inflation was rampant.
You obviously can’t remember the food, fuel and power shortages of the Heath government or the steadily growing balance of payments deficit. The common market had to pump in 25% of its regional development funds to stabilise the nation, the highest ever figure
Those of us who DO remember voted Remain – hopefully not in vain.
Reply We joined the EEC before the inflation and recession which hit the end of the Heath government and carried on throughout much of the following Labour government! The collapse of UK industry under the new tariff free EEC rules was part of the problem. UK Car output halved in our first ten years in the EEC from a high level just before we joined.
August 27, 2018
There is a problem Helena.
But it is simple to solve.
August 27, 2018
The Irish government pretends to think that there is no border … to copy and paste a comment from Deccember 4th 2017:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/12/04/two-views-of-brexit/#comment-905007
“I’ve just heard the Irish Foreign Minister speak against “the re-emergence of a border on this island”. It was in a video embedded in this article:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1204/924743-brexit/
which is headed with a picture of signs at that border which must not
re-emerge, and he then went on to say that at present this non-existent border which must not re-emerge is helping to bring people together
rather than dividing them.
I think that either he’s very muddled or he’s trying very hard to muddle others, and I think I prefer the clarity of his subordinate, the Europe Minister, who told Sky News:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/12/02/the-irish-border/#comment-904608
“We have been very very clear from day one, there cannot be a physical border and that means ruling out cameras, that means ruling out technology, that means ruling out anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland, it is not an option for us”.
As the Irish government is sufficiently crazy to rule out “anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland”, when it is self-evident and undeniable that there already is a border, and moreover an international border, for all kinds of agreed purposes, legal and practical, it really seems utterly pointless and a complete waste of time and energy to try to negotiate any kind of agreement with them.”
August 27, 2018
And what is that problem? The UK and Irish govts have both said they will not put up any ‘hard border’ so who else will? This has been a clever ruse by the EU for which Mrs May has foolishly fallen. There is no coherent explanation from anyone as to what problem there is on the Irish border other than a vague threat of nationalist terrorism – anyone could make that threat about any political outcome they didn’t like! Do try to come up with some actual arguments rather than this silly sarcasm.
August 27, 2018
“… for which Mrs May has willingly fallen …”, because it gives her a pretext for making unnecessary concessions to the EU which she had already wanted to give.
She is obviously very comfortable with the idea that all of the UK should take rules from the EU for the convenience of the 6% of UK businesses that export 12% of our GDP to the EU.
Which reminds me of a comment I made here on May 15th:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/15/technology-and-transport/#comments
“Off topic again, but highly topical, I have just been notified about this new report:
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8309#fullreport
“Brexit: Customs and Regulatory Arrangements in the Future Partnership Agreement”
I have not yet had a chance to read it all, but this stands out on page 15:
“businesses who export to the EU tell us that it is strongly in their interest to have a single set of regulatory standards that mean they can sell into the UK and EU markets.”
There in a nutshell is the fundamental philosophical fallacy which has underlain our mistaken involvement with the EU’s politically driven “single market” model right from the start, that because the 6% of UK businesses who export 12% of UK GDP to the EU want a single set of regulatory standards, the EU standards, that justifies the imposition of EU laws on the entire country and its economy and all its individual citizens.
And now Theresa May and her Brexit negotiators are going beyond even that stupidity to suppose that the about 0.1% of UK GDP which is exported across the Irish land border in itself justifies complete EU compliance by the entire UK economy.”
That quoted passage is now on page 22 of the updated report at that link, and is referenced back to Theresa May’s Mansion House speech of March 2nd 2018:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-our-future-economic-partnership-with-the-european-union
“Our default is that UK law may not necessarily be identical to EU law, but it should achieve the same outcomes. In some cases Parliament might choose to pass an identical law – businesses who export to the EU tell us that it is strongly in their interest to have a single set of regulatory standards that mean they can sell into the UK and EU markets.”
And evidently the 94% of UK businesses who do not export to the EU can either like that or lump it, they don’t matter.
August 27, 2018
Dennis, this is spot on the money. Again, why have the leaver MPs and ministers not picked up on her obvious treachery? No one in their right mind would be a vassal state for 6 percent of businesses that equate to 12 percent of GDP! Why did they not oppose her in December for her stupid remarks? Why did they not point out it is not up to the UK to find a solution but international law makes it all parties responsibility? Why did they think she included this in her Mansion House capitulation? Did they not think the EU,and,Ireland,would never accept a solution other than remaining in the EU or giving away N.Ireland! Complete idiots.
I suggest they oust this treacherous underhand liar. The trust is lost and cannot ever be regained. We have Boles and co saying they will not accept no deal! Hammond allowed to break collective responsibility after May stated it was restored after chequers! She cannot be believed on anything.
August 27, 2018
If you’d read something other than Facebook, Helena, you might understand what Dr Redwood has explained many times – along with other people with far more understanding of the situation than you obviously have. But, there you are – yet another gleeful remainder who’d just love to see problems existing even when there aren’t any, so long as you can see our country suffer in some way you can say eventually say ”I told you so”.
Well, tough.
August 27, 2018
Seems like the EU already have a solution –
Smart Border 2.0
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf
August 27, 2018
Helena
Irish problem; invented by EU and its self-serving co-conspirators, believe by ill-informed Remainers, or worse, seeking a apocryphal problem where none exist!
Reductio ad absurdum, or if you like “If that’s so, then I’m a monkey’s uncle”
August 28, 2018
Typical Brexiteer excuse – it’s anybody else’s fault
I suppose a recurring IRA threat is just another bit of Scotch mist?
August 28, 2018
margaret howard
Well you’re a member of the Corbyn cult, you tell us .
August 27, 2018
How about: ‘movement across the Irish border will continue as now, with no requirement for any kind of ‘hard border.’ Hopefully there will be no tariffs, so no greater incentive for smuggling than now. In the unfortunate event the EU does decide to erect tariffs against the UK, customs declarations will be made as they are for all our non-EU trade, electronically and away from the border. In the event there is smuggling (and there is some at the moment due to different exise VAT rates etc) then the respective authorities on either side of the border will work together to combat it, as they do other crimes.’
August 27, 2018
Alas, under WTO rules – which Brexiteers claim to want – we can not have a frictionless border.
August 27, 2018
That’s odd Andy in the Dhoa WTO trade talks the WTO was encouraging nations to adopt free trade and frictionless borders.
August 27, 2018
Nonsense this is just an assertion. If the EU – foolishly – imposés tariffs they can easily be arranged electronically as all our WTO trade is. If the EU wants a hard border let them put one up.
August 27, 2018
So which WTO rules would they be, then, Andy? Let’s see chapter and verse …. oh, hang about, you’ve said this on several previous occasions, and on August 5th, more than three weeks ago now, I actually replied to you:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/04/beware-the-draft-withdrawal-agreement/#comments
“Don’t berate us for not understanding it, Andy, prove it to us by citing chapter and verse of the WTO rule(s) which say we would have to have a hard border. I’ll come back and check for a few days to see if you have done that. And don’t try and blag your way out of it with sweeping unsubstantiated claims that it is basic or fundamental or whatever, cite the articles.”
Well, I went back and checked for some days but you never came back with an answer, why was that? Anyway now you have another chance to prove that what you say is true and not just another lie, something else EU loyalists like you have invented.
August 27, 2018
Non discrimination. If no border in Ireland, then no border at Dover, Felixstowe etc. WTO law! You really want all our borders wide open?
August 27, 2018
Denis Cooper
Don’t bother wasting your time waiting for his response. He will not eruditely support his claim, that requires effort and research….not his intellectual forte!
…and the fact, on numerous occasions, he has been pointed out as being rather boorish without any defending response from him, suggests he is simply trying to irritate fellow commentators. Rather childish behaviour.
Clearly, Andy must be a resolute EU sycophantic Remoaner that cloddishly persists in ignoring real facts?
August 27, 2018
Chapter and verse, please.
Like this:
https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/tfa-nov14_e.htm#art7
“4 Risk Management
4.1 Each Member shall, to the extent possible, adopt or maintain a risk management system for customs control.
4.2 Each Member shall design and apply risk management in a manner as to avoid arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination, or a disguised restriction on international trade.
4.3 Each Member shall concentrate customs control and, to the extent possible other relevant border controls, on high-risk consignments and expedite the release of low-risk consignments. A Member also may select, on a random basis, consignments for such controls as part of its risk management.
4.4 Each Member shall base risk management on an assessment of risk through appropriate selectivity criteria. Such selectivity criteria may include, inter alia, the Harmonized System code, nature and description of the goods, country of origin, country from which the goods were shipped, value of the goods, compliance record of traders, and type of means of transport.”
August 27, 2018
That’s not in any WTO regulations. It’s just something you repeatedly assert in the vain hope somebody will believe you.
August 27, 2018
Arguably it would actually be contrary to the WTO treaties, and most notably the Trade Facilitation Agreement which came into force in February 2017, for the UK to reinstate objectively unnecessary checks on goods as they crossed the land border from the Republic when it had eschewed such checks for a quarter of a century. Eventually the UK might decide that EU standards had dropped too far to allow all goods to freely enter the UK market from Republic across that border without any more checks than now, but it’s hard to see that happening for a long time if ever. As for the other side, well that is their affair, is it not, and if they think there has been a material change in circumstances and so they need to reintroduce border checks on goods from Northern Ireland then so be it. Personally I would offer to save them the trouble through new export control laws, but that does not seem to appeal to those people who want to create problems rather than solve them.
August 27, 2018
Andy, the Trade Facilitation Agreement compulsory bits in the first six articles, are rules that emerging nations should adopt in-order to start trading with the big boys.
Articles 7 “release and clearance of goods”, and Article 8 “border agency cooperation” are highly recommended aspirations. They do not impose friction-less border procedures. The big boys have been given some get out clauses in Articles 2 and 3; naturally.
August 28, 2018
People can read Article 7 TFA for themselves, I have given the link above, and they can form their own view on what it means rather than having to accept your gloss. My own view is that nothing will happen when we leave the EU which will mean that goods which have been flowing completely freely into the UK across the Irish border for a quarter of a century will suddenly need to be intercepted and inspected at the border, and to do that could even be held to contravene Article 7.4 TFA. The Department for International Trade appears to agree with this:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/22/why-is-the-today-programme-losing-its-listeners/#comment-956227
August 27, 2018
Sinead seems to be a bit behind. Both the Irish Customs and the EU have said there is no need for a hard border in Ireland in the event of No Deal. There never was. It is just a negotiating tactic and a very good one because the great proletariat don’t read treaties like the GFA, nor proposals by the EU itself for electronic improvements to all its borders, including Ireland, but swallow without question comments that suit their prejudices and pre-conceptions thus reinforcing them. Remainers are so blinded by their hatred of Brexiteers and denial of reality and so ignorant of the facts that they are extremely vulnerable to such propaganda.
It haas probably escaped your notice that Ireland was about to be arraigned in the RECJ for its low corporate tax regime making it too attractive to multi-nationals wishing to avoid higher tax regimes in other member states. So long as little Varadkar makes life awkward for the British such action will be delayed. Once Brexit is done, however, you can bet, Ireland will be sent to the EU naughty corner and bullied once again.
August 27, 2018
Peter D Gardner
Sums it up nicely Peter.
Any other discussion henceforth, regarding the Irish question, is blindingly irrelevant!
No disrespect to the Irish, being half myself, but those Irish persons that I have spoken to see straight through the EU’s and Varadkar’s tosh!
August 27, 2018
Dennis..you don’t have to convince us..you have to convince the EU and Barnier
August 30, 2018
Crackersjohn
…and your suggestion to achieve such a result is what?
August 27, 2018
That’s not what M. Barnier thinks.
August 27, 2018
As Peter correctly says in his post, “It is a negotiating tactic”
August 27, 2018
Is he your little god, Mike? Do you have his portrait hung over your bed, and a statuette to which you can address your praises and your prayers?
August 27, 2018
There is no need for a “hard border” with customs/guards/military/police at the border.
There exists already a border between Ireland & N.I. for currency, VAT, excise duty, corporation tax etc. and the necessary infrastructure for control, viz the high definition Automatic Number Plate Recognition [ANPR] cameras with a high speed data link to police computers, are already in place and can be easily used in addition for customs purposes.
The EU’s use of the threat of a return to violence is despicable.
August 27, 2018
The Irish border problem is a cynical and indeed rather an evil negotiation ploy by “our friends” at the EU.
Who would want to be a mere region ruled by people like these?
August 27, 2018
Eminently preferable to being ruled by people like you.
August 27, 2018
If you like being poor and living under an anti-democratic, bureaucratic, high taxing, socialist superstate perhaps you are right.
August 27, 2018
I’m looking forward to a post by Hans complaining about the tone of your post Andy.
August 27, 2018
No, I don’t think so. Ll expresses far more interest in the well-being of the UK than ever comes out of Brussels.
At least he could be removed if he put himself up for election, unlike the officials in the EU that we are stuck with whether we like it or not. No wait – not for much longer! Happy days.
August 27, 2018
But with Lifelogic as a candidate we’d find it much easier to deselect him after Brexit than we could an EU commissioner.
Can you not see the difference ?
August 27, 2018
The Irish border issue is a manufactured cynical ploy by Brussels. It is genuine fake news!
August 27, 2018
What they’re saying is that the IRA are going to force us into relinquishing home rule at gunpoint.
August 27, 2018
But it’s part manufactured by allies of Brussels in this country, such as the one who said in her Mansion House speech that we must take responsibility for sorting out any problems that arise on the other side of the border. Just to go through the chain of events here: the Irish government was so keen on the Lisbon Treaty that it made the Irish people vote again to get it through, and that was when Article 50 was introduced, but if the British people want to invoke that Article 50 then the Irish government objects and complains that our decision to exercise a right which they said should be in the EU treaties is causing them problems, and our own Prime Minister and her favourite euromaniac civil servant take their side against us. It’s enough to make you sick, and for sure I will never again vote for any Tory candidate in any election, the sooner we are shot of that party the better.
August 27, 2018
A Sedgwick.. the border is there because the EU knows there is no solution to it as regards UK politics.. and any chance of a future deal is therefore out of the question. The EU is just using it so there can be no satisfactory withdrawal as far as they are concerned and so there will be no transition to a future deal..they are even more brexit than the UKIP and tory brexiteers..believe it or not
August 27, 2018
A.Sedgwick
“The Irish border issue is a manufactured cynical ploy by Brussels. It is genuine fake news!”
Cynical Brussels?
No. A cynical ploy by Britain was the Queen smiling and shaking hands with IRA leader Martin McGuinness!
August 28, 2018
margaret howard
That would be the Martin McGuiness that was Deputy First Minister of NI at the time ?
August 27, 2018
You are playing with fire here Mr Redwood. Yet you show as little understanding of the depth of your wrecklessness as Mr Rees Mogg did with his recent blithe references to ‘The Troubles’. I lived in Ulster in the 80’s. The UK’s sole land border was one of the most dangerous places in Europe (an appalling fact) as evidenced by the bomb damage from the latest PIRA attack and the terrified look in the eyes of the young squaddies guarding it.
And yet here you are, denying there is even a problem in the first place. It is all a silly misunderstanding about post-Brexit trade arrangements, which will dissolve like magic when….well, when what? The backstop agreement puts paid to those WTO rules you keep dreaming of, when not fantasizing about what you’d do with 39 billion quid.
The massive disturbances in Derry this summer ought to give any serious politician pause for thought, however undereported they were in the UK media. The security services have little doubt how serious the threat of renewed violence currently is.
Instead, all we get is a denial there is any problem in the first place. With statesmen this myopic no wonder the United Kingdom is increasingly seen across the world as a country in the midst of a collective nervous breakdown.
August 27, 2018
Probably better to avoid the word ‘collaboration’. Also it would be necessary to remove the back cover and replace the pro EU chip with a pro UK version.
August 27, 2018
Mrs May will not say this (as our wise host knows, of course). Like another, immeasurably greater, Prime Minister, the lady’s not for turning. How will the conference react to what she does say? Will it give the usual standing ovation, or sit in stony silence, or walk out en masse?
And what will Boris say? Will he give a blinder of a speech and assert his right to lead – in the face of most of his terrified Parliamentary colleagues – by sheer force of personality?
Not since the 1970s has the country been so desperate for a lead, but not since Neville Chamberlain has the leadership been so desperately inadequate.
August 27, 2018
Quite right! Even if she did take our hosts advice who’d believe her?
It’s too late for Mrs. May to make a U turn, her credibility is gone. The ONLY solution now is to remove her before the conference and start negotiations afresh with a new Brexiteer leader.
August 27, 2018
Quite right, she has no credibility. A busted flush!
August 27, 2018
We need to stop negotiating, as it is getting us nowhere, and simply inform them of our new ‘rules of engagement’, post Brexit. As so much of the minutiae is linked to trade, this will not be discussed until then (have I mentioned this before?). The EU may be more inclined to talk with an £80bn trade surplus and £39bn bribe money at risk. That’s taking back control!
August 27, 2018
And how will you get a brexiteer leader?
It may be possible to get a leave leaning mp into the final two but make no mistake it was Labour voters that won the referendum so there is no guarantee that the brexiteer will get in, even if it is Mr Johnson.
A Remainder who won a leadership election would have the mandate to completely renege.
August 27, 2018
Yes, it is not going to happen.
How things pan out remains to be seen.
August 27, 2018
I am not wholly convinced there will be stony silence, however much readers of this post would like that to be, but I am prepared to bet that the clapping will be deeply underwhelming. Judging from news of the sharp rise in membership over the last few months, I expect the conference will be populated with plenty of people who will neither stand nor clap.
August 27, 2018
What an odd piece. No one suggests Brexit will hurt our imports. It’s blockages to our exports that are the problem. You seem to miss the point
Reply On the contrary, most of the debate has been about the absurd proposition that we will not be able to import food and medicines after departure and how French and German airlines will no longer fly to the UK!
August 27, 2018
@ Reno
“No one suggests Brexit will hurt our imports. It’s blockages to our exports that are the problem. You seem to miss the point”
I don’t think he has missed any point Reno. He has addressed genuine concerns as well as the scaremongering of project fear, but can’t be expected to cover everything all at once to please all of the people.
August 27, 2018
No one – literally no 0ne – has made any such suggestion (except you). The issue is that as a third country after Brexit we will not able to export our food and medicines to the EU (our largest trading partner) nor will our planes be able to land at their airports – unless we do a deal.
Reply Do try to follow the media and the mai n stories. They are all about stockpiling imported medicines, running short of specified imported medicines, and not having access to EU food! We will be fine exporting under WTO rules. as we do to the rest of the world at the moment. The EU has to be governed by WTO rules on allowing access to markets, not just by its WTO Treaty membership but also by its own law codes which bind in WTO rules.
August 27, 2018
It is Brexiteers who are talking about stockpiling and blockades – not Remainers. Again as your project descends into an entirely predictable farce you are already seeking to blame others. It won’t work.
August 27, 2018
Andy
That is 100% a total and utter lie. What is interesting is that all the remainers on here have come out with the same line at the same time. Its almost as if this was a coordinated reverse ferret .
Your lies and propaganda have been caught out . The public have suddenly realised what total and utter nonsense project fear 2 has been and now you are gearing up for the laughable “peoples vote 3” you dont want to be caught out for your blatant lies.
Disgusting
August 28, 2018
It is your government that is stocking up in case the EU tries to blockade the UK
Nothing to do with those who voted in the referendum.
August 27, 2018
Reply to JR reply. Of course the UK can continue to import and export (if you wish add WTO because that is completely redundant). There are very few WTO non-members so any trade not under a specific agreement (and FTA or something more complex) automaticall takes place under WTO rules asuming the UK becomes an individual member. It means that exporters from the UK to the UK will not benefit from EU protections (or if you like EU protectionism) and mechanisms to facilitate trade. The consequences of that can be divided in stages: (1) imports/exports change end user prices relative to domestic trade and lots of things may require inpections and certification. If the UK wants to abandon those things unilaterally, MFN requirements may reduce the UK’s freedom to to so because of unintended consequences* (2) second order effects. Imo these will cause the most harm to the UK (and much more harm to the UK than the EU, while the first order effects may be worse for the EU than the UK). Those effects are primarily related to investment. The EU-oriented pattern of inbound FDI will change and so far it is entireley unclear how. There may be more inbound FDI from say the US if there is a UKUSFTA Nafta style AND provided the UK becomes a more attractive location than Mexico or Canada. That will not be easy. One would expect the US exports to the UK to benefit much more than the reverse.
Anyway, your speech comes as no surprise, the EU negotiators have, no doubt already been exposed to rhetoric of this kind, dismissed it and nevertheless the people your party has appointed to sit in government, are continuing the talks. They must have good reasons, not just emotional ones..
August 27, 2018
What a pair of liars.
“No one suggests Brexit will hurt our imports.”
“No one – literally no 0ne – has made any such suggestion (except you).”
Totally despicable.
August 27, 2018
Reply to JR’s Reply,
Does the UK have a new tariff schedule ready given the WTO (so called no deal) scenario occurring? Can we see it?
August 27, 2018
WTO members have received the United Kingdom’s draft schedule setting out its WTO market access commitments for goods post Brexit day. (UK Ambassador to the WTO Julian Braithwaite on 24 July)
The UK schedule is a cut and paste version of the EU schedule with TRQ splits. The UK is seeking to get it passed as a “rectification”, with no objections within three months. There are several WTO members objecting, saying the UK schedule is a “modification” which requires renegotiation of TRQs at least. They all will want a bigger share of the UK’s import pie, to compensate for what they will lose from the EU.
August 27, 2018
What will they lose trading with the UK on terms which are the same as they trade now?
August 27, 2018
I had to look up TRQ. Surely TRQs would only exist in product categories in which EU producers believe the RoW threatens them: furthermore, the impact of the TRQs by country will vary as they are likely to be designed to protect continental producers not us with the French, Germans, Italians driving their own cars and Club Med eating its own oranges and they would want that to continue with us taking their surplus production of cars and oranges. However, out of the EU, why would we not want to import more cheaper, tastier oranges and cheaper Far Eastern cars? It looks like the EU would want to constrain on our relaxation of TRQs and would definitely prefer a free trade deal.
August 27, 2018
There are certainly areas where the UK could reduce tariffs from the EU’s protectionist rates.
For example we don’t grow many oranges here or coffee beans, both of which are subject to “Customs Union” tariffs…
August 27, 2018
acorn
What? What exactly are they losing from the EU?
I’m not surprised that other countries object to EU TRQ’s , they’re objectionable protectionist nonsense
How many times do you need to be told? There isn’t a UK import pie, trade happens between buyers and sellers. We buy stuff that we want to buy be it cars, cheese, wine, oranges, records, phones etc and we will pay a price that we deem affordable including duties, taxes and tariffs
August 27, 2018
acorn
Which members are objecting to the WTO schedule?
August 27, 2018
You could also ask whether the EU has a tariff schedule, and as of two years ago apparently the answer was that it had a schedule, but one that had never been updated since 2004 the EU had only 15 member states.
https://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit
“Now comes the surprise. We don’t know what most of the EU’s current commitments in the WTO are. The UK would be negotiating a share of key quantities that are unknown.
The only confirmed commitments on tariffs, quotas, and farm subsidies are from before 2004 when the EU had 15 member states. The EU has expanded three times since then, but in 12 years it has been unable to agree with the WTO membership on revised commitments.
That in itself is a warning. The UK will be negotiating a share of numbers that are unknown, with no guarantee of agreement. There may be practical solutions but again they will have to be negotiated.”
But it has to be asked how much any of this matters in practice; if countries around the world have been willing to trade with the UK under WTO terms for as long as 14 years even though the EU’s WTO schedules were outdated, why should they start suddenly and belatedly become obstructive when the UK leaves the EU? Will they decide to make a disproportionate fuss about it just because EU loyalists in the UK would like them to do that? Well, maybe, or maybe they would prefer to just smooth it over, in much the same way as the incomplete ratification of the protocol for Croatia to join the EEA is still being smoothed over after more than four years:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/24/the-chancellor-gets-his-big-fiscal-consequences-of-leaving-wrong-we-will-have-39bn-more-to-spend/#comment-956852
“… Croatia joined the EU more than five years ago and the necessary amendments to the EEA Agreement were sorted out by April 2014 and started to be applied on a provisional basis … ”
and still are being applied on a provisional basis.
But is anybody much bothered about that? Are Croatian goods being treated as non-EEA goods by Iceland and Norway and Liechtenstein because strictly speaking Croatia is not yet in the EEA? I doubt that.
August 27, 2018
On October 17, 2017, the EU circulated revised goods “schedules” for all its 28 members. If no WTO member objects these could be certified in three months. Apart from accounting for the expansion to 28, the revisions include other modifications, including ending agricultural export subsidies.
For the first time since the WTO was set up in 1995, the EU will then be up-to-date with its goods schedules (but not services), until the UK leaves. The documents code number G/MA/TAR/RS/506
August 27, 2018
acorn
Lol , not if its for 28 countries it won’t be up to date because after next March there are only 27 left
August 27, 2018
Thanks for that update. Of course it does not alter the point that the EU itself has had no WTO proper schedules for 14 years now but as far we know that has not been allowed to interfere with trade, or had even provoked any noticeable level of outrage from its trading partners.
August 27, 2018
How Theresa May could have a good party conference?
1. Resign and go walking, running naughtily through a field of wheat or cooking nice things (as you get to eat them too)! Then let someone at least half competent take over.
or
2. Have someone give you a brain transplant or hypnosis to turn you from a dim, tax borrow and waste, Vassal state, red tape pushing, green crap socialist and total electoral liability into a real Conservative with a real clean Brexit, small state vision.
The latter seems rather unlikely. I have however roughly counted our food & cooking books and we seem to have nearly three times the 150 that May has. They provide good thermal insulation on an outside wall too.
August 27, 2018
L/L Thanks for such a good laugh first thing in the morning. John, I’m afraid he’s right. Mrs May giving a speech like this is very unlikely. As others are saying, we need the membership and prominent MP’s and ministers to walk out. That would send a clear message to her that her Chequers deal is unacceptable to them and the country. Please someone remind her what her manifesto said that she was voted in on. Would you be prepared to be the one to lead a mass walk out?
August 27, 2018
Last year she coughed her way through her speech so that nobody would notice it had obviously been written for Ed Miliband’s.
August 27, 2018
I thought it was a very well written example.
The only concerns for me was the attempt to enable a deal at the last hour, but then I’m opposed to a deal with the EU. Also the armed forces commitment to Europe; I’d object to our country making supreme sacrifices for a third time to liberate Europe just so it can return the favour with disrespectfulness, jealousy, and bullying.
That said, if Theresa May delivered that kind of speech I might just start to be impressed.
August 27, 2018
Steve – agreed. Especially about the armed forces. We can’t keep digging them out of holes of their own creating. Our goodwill is surely wearing thin by now.
But if Mrs May did deliver that kind of speech, would you believe anything she said?
August 27, 2018
Reply to L. Jones;
No I probably wouldn’t believe her, to be honest.
The point I am making there is the fact that the example speech is one you’d imagine to have come from an esteemed and dignified statesman.
If May behaved like that then yes, I would be impressed. But alas the speech was not written by her and she isn’t one.
Re armed forces; indeed we should not intervene in any of the EU’s military follies, offensive or otherwise.
The fact is we’ve got them out of the cack twice now and at great sacrifice. How do they view us? with utter contempt. We’ve been taken for mugs ever since, held to ransom, disrespected, bullied, ripped off.
There’s a notion that certain European countries actually despise us because they fell in the last spat and we didn’t.
Quite frankly all this talk of negotiation with the EU makes me sick. I don’t think we should be negotiating with them at all. What they’re terrified of is the UK leaving and making a success of it. This is because they know nationalism is on the march right across Europe, and if we’re seen to do alright for ourselves then other countries will follow suit.
The EU’s hand is not as strong as they would have you believe, and it relies on treachery and buy-offs to stay glued together.
August 27, 2018
At the Conservative party conference Mrs May should say ‘I quit and in doing so I’m handing the job to Boris as he’s the only one with the balls to tell the EU, we’re out whether you like it or not’
August 27, 2018
I genuinely wish she would. Then we would see what Boris is made of. Fluff and a cowardly yellow streak a mile wide is my guess.
August 27, 2018
Well, Leilo, wouldn’t it be nice if you came back to us here, should Boris get the top job and drag us out of the mess Mrs May has made – and tell us how wrong you were and apologise for your discourtesy.
But I doubt you will.
August 27, 2018
Leilo Fraser
“Then we would see what Boris is made of. Fluff and a cowardly yellow streak a mile wide is my guess.”
==
If he really gets the top job we will definitely become the laughing stock of the world.
August 28, 2018
margaret howard
What you mean like when he was two times Mayor of London?
Your party have made a very good job of that since taking control ….. Oh wait
August 27, 2018
Old Albion- Boris would be wrong- it’s got nothing to do about the EU and whether they like it or not- all of this Brexit carryon and looking for a new type bespoke deal has everything to do with the UK and the endless infighting in the Tory party- the EU side are just looking on with amazement
August 27, 2018
I was speaking with a German the other day (in Thailand) who was the service manager for an agricultural equipment supplier for Australasia, Asia and the Middle East. He knew about trade without the EU and couldn’t understand why we had not negotiated a free trade agreement.
He was under the impression (from German media) that we did not want to actually leave.
August 27, 2018
I’ve been to several conferences, and have noted that whatever the Prime Minister of the day says, they always get a standing ovation. A mode of semi hysteria seems to be whipped up.
Some of us have issues with the Government apart from Brexit. ie: the refusal to acknowledge the problems facing the NHS, Immigration etc.
It is possible that they may not get such an easy ride this time.
August 27, 2018
The NHS gets all the attention.
I think myself that the Police and Prisons are more important. If there is a mass break out from a Category A Prison near a major conurbation, we will know it. Also kids riding round stabbing people makes safe London look like Al Capone’s America.
August 27, 2018
After 60 years of left wing social policy we are about to see British civilisation implode.
It will all be blamed on Brexit.
August 27, 2018
The standing ovations are for public consumption only. The conference is so staid and choreographed that no real debate is possible. That’s why so many fringe meetings take place where dissenters (read true Tories) can get their message across.
August 27, 2018
No chance.
She will proclaim the increase in plastic bag tax as a victory.
She will give us more nonsense on women’s pay so comprehensively destroyed by Jordan Peterson.
She will skip over knife crime and immigration both being completely out of control, directly due to her own pulling the levers of power both as home secretary and PM.
She will tell us brexit in name only is a good deal.
She needs to go and go now.
Anyone interested in a landslide winning approach let me know.
August 27, 2018
Is May so thick as to think there really is a gender pay gap beyond that explained by career gaps, work life balance choices and the different subjects and careers the genders choose? Or does she understand the truth full well but just thinks she can lie through her teeth and win votes by her damaging and evil pro anti-male discrimination agenda?
Interestingly at A level over the subjects Economics, Further Maths, Physics and Computer Science there is about an average of only one girl for every four boys.
Perhaps women should choose different A levels if they want to earn more?
August 27, 2018
Question: who will lead us into the EEA outside the EU/EEA?
August 27, 2018
It’s effectively one and the same. Do you ever read any replies? I refer you to JRM’s description of the Chancellors economic fixations.
August 27, 2018
Very likely, I’m afraid. And even if she delivered Mr Redwood’s proposed speech word for word, I shouldn’t trust her to follow it through with actions. She must go; she’s a broken, discredited liability with neither confidence nor conviction who should make way for someone with both: Boris.
August 27, 2018
Exactly. May is a dire warm up act for Corbyn, just get rid.
August 27, 2018
Maybe May will admit throwing money at the NHS was a disgrace, failing to reform or hand any power to patients, as was withdrawing hemorrhoid and trigger finger ops, despite the fact in severe cases these lead to people literally dripping blood as they walk around, or not being able to move their fingers, in both cases taking them out of the productive workforce, all for want of cheap simple surgery that people would get in the entire rest of the developed world.
It amazes me the government have got away with this, the press dont seem interested, I tell you want all the patients in the land are furious and will not be voting Conservative thats for sure.
Lets see someone at the conference raise this?
August 27, 2018
Iain. I’ve just come back from my GP’s office only to find that they will be closed for 4 days on the trot in September. This will be fine as long as I remember not to be ill on those days. Our A&E might be very busy during that time.
August 27, 2018
NHS envy of the world, such nonsense.
August 28, 2018
What a brilliant service the NHS provide. They already have you money already so what do they care about “customers” they are just a nuisance to be deterred wherever possible. If you have to see they give them perhaps 3 minutes.
August 27, 2018
Indeed and many other operations are rationed until the condition is considered serious enough. The wonderful NHS, free at the point of non delivery, rationing, delay, incompetence, early death and often total contempt for the patients who have funded it.
August 27, 2018
I had not realised that the great push for the expensive and rather pointless Smart Meters had like most disasters come from the EU. Endless adds and phone calls pushing them currently.
But vastly more wasteful even than this & HS2 is surely “universities”. I am reading the excellent book “The Great University Con: How we broke our universities and betrayed a generation” by David Craig and Hugh Openshaw
I had not realised that over half of students going to University had just 3 Ds or worse at A levels. Surely is it clear that about 2/3 of people going to university and being left with 50K + of debt (and three years loss of earning) should really not be doing so.
The Blair governments mis-selling claim of the graduate lifetimes earnings premium (of up to 500K) was clearly a total con trick (and still being repeated by the current politicians). Confusing causes and effect, ignoring taxation and relating to a time when only 5% – 10% of students went to university at all.
With about 500,000 going every year and most never repaying their loans the cost to tax payers after say twenty years will be about £300 Billion plus (on top of that) the loss of three years work and taxes from these people perhaps the same again. Then we have all the people working at these universities in largely pointless jobs. About 2/3 of the courses are fairly pointless so 2/3 of them could go and get a real job too.
Net cost to the country perhaps approaching £1 Trillion per 20 years. Will people be able to get a PPI type of compensation for this gross government mis-selling in a few years time?
August 27, 2018
Couldn’t agree more. Anyone should be ABLE to get a student loan if they aim for ‘proper’ courses. These courses could be selected in the same way eg CDT courses are selecte; by needing to competitively apply on a 5-year rolling basis to the government for funding by presenting evidence, industry collaboration, demonstrating value, proof of job prospects etc..
University should not be free (to prevent those who never go paying for those that do), but not all courses should be considered equal. Most courses on offer today should not be eligible for government-backed loans. A good way to immediately ‘trim the fat’ would be to withdraw loan funding for any course that has offered unconditional places outside the Russel group universities in the last 10 years, which apparently makes up 35% of all university offers. These courses are clearly there to profit from students/the tax payer and offer nothing in return. Then the rest of the useless courses can have funding withdrawn by running the aforementioned competitive application system.
August 28, 2018
Studying for a degree is about getting an education.
It isn’t all about getting a job that you consider valuable.
You want the government to create a big quango of experts who will decide every few years what degrees are “useful” and which ones would not get any financial support.
Studying topics like english literature geography classics and other non technical subjects in humanities would be neglected whilst medicine law sciences and engineering would be listed as “useful”
Not the kind of university system I would like to see.
August 28, 2018
I agree the threat of government bureaucracy and quangos could get in the way, but with a rigorous system I think it would be a good start. I do not think that non technical subjects (such as those you list) studied at the highest level should be disregarded, but just in this country we are short of around 200,000 engineers and have a surplus of around 200,000 sociologists.
As you say, at the highest levels these humanities subjects are a valuable education to the recipient and to the nation. But at the lower end, they do not benefit anyone, and at the very least should not be covered for by the taxpayer making loans simply because the subjects themselves are deemed to give a good education rather than the specific institutions and courses.
August 28, 2018
Hungary has banned gender studies and similar loony left university political activist run twaddle. But May and others female ministers seem to take this stuff seriously and put nonsense into law.
August 27, 2018
Keeps the unemployment stats down, keeps young people occupied so they don’t have time on their hands to riot. Costs are probably less than than maintaining job seekers. What I don’t understand is why we offer student loans to non-UK students.
August 27, 2018
Secret People. Yes, give free education for foreigners but charge our own. Unless of course you live in Scotland. Surely this must account for more foreign aid?
August 27, 2018
Because the EU insists on it. Free for EU students in Scotland (other than English/Welsh/N. Irish ones). Repayment of these overseas EU loans is even less likely.
August 27, 2018
That is what she should say, but I guarantee that is not what is going to happen.
Even if she did say it no one would believe her, unless she started your 5th Paragraph with the words.
This morning I have withdrawn all offers to the EU, with a letter which was delivered to the the EU President at 9.00am this morning.
We will thus be leaving the EU at the end of March 2019 and implementing WTO Terms from that point forward.
We will be offering the EU tariff free trade after that date providing it is completely reciprocal, we are also happy to co-operate and pay our fair share of some ongoing and possible future projects, providing that are in, and for our mutual benefit.
That statement of fact may very well save her Premiership in the short term, and give her time on perhaps which she could build, anything less and I am afraid either she, or the Conservative Party can say goodbye to very many voters.
August 27, 2018
“We will thus be leaving the EU at the end of March 2019 and implementing WTO Terms from that point forward.” What makes you so sure?
You can’t trade as a WTO member, unless you have two Certified Schedules for goods and services, with the Director General’s name on them. He only puts his name on them when every other individual WTO member, stops (hopefully doesn’t start) objecting to them! And that includes the EU.
Leaving the EU on 29/03/19, with likely no certified WTO schedules and no trade agreement with the EU, I have no idea who’s rules will apply to what or which!
August 27, 2018
No doubt provisional schedules would do for a few years.
Here’s another old comment dredged up:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/12/26/the-bbc-today-programme-recycles-the-trade-deal-scare/#comment-909559
“… the EU trade deal with South Korea … of very little overall economic value to South Korea and close to zero overall economic value to the EU and its member states … also has another interesting feature, namely that it was signed on October 6th 2010 but because of Italy delaying ratification it only came into full legal force five years later … However in the meantime there was provisional application of most it from July 1st 2011 … ”
I find that EU loyalists remind me of SNP activists, always citing this or that aspect of law but usually in a dishonest and misleading way.
August 27, 2018
If the EU Korea agreements have little economic value, why did it need 1,400 pages to say so.
August 28, 2018
That’s the EU for you.
Takes them years and hundreds of pages to agree a simple trading arrangement.
August 28, 2018
Much ado about next to nothing, then:
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2010/may/tradoc_146174.pdf
“Results of the simulations show that the effects of the EU-Korea FTA on GDP are positive for both the EU (0.08%) and Korea (up to 0.84%).”
August 27, 2018
As sixth largest economy it’s important we don’t go *pop*.
Otherwise we become an economic black hole and the rotW comes down the plug hole with us.
If they were worried about Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece or Spain…
August 27, 2018
How about adding
1) that given the failure of the EU to reciprocate, UK will suspend the EU’s licences to fish in the UK’s EEZ from midnight on 29 March 2019 until further licensing agreements are reached. The UK will replace the CFP with a new regime for managing the marine resources and environment within its coastal waters and EEZ as required by the UNCLOS to come into effect on 30 March 2019, noting that this regime is UK’s sole responsibility and sole right to enforce, under the UNCLOS.
2) cancel the so called transition period and unilaterally declare free trade to all WTO members as a temporary measure while free trade agreements are negotiated with UK’s main trading partners in the WTO including the EU, based on mutual recognition of standards. Those which do not reciprocate within two years will face reciprocal and proportionate tariffs and NTBs on their exports of goods and services to UK.
3) Establish UK’s regulations in line with existing international agreements for matters such as air traffic control, air route operating licences, air safety, and other matters.
4) Replace EU public procurement rules in UK with regulations based on WTO rules with effect from midnight on 29 March 2019.
5) UK will enforce through the international courts its claim to its capital and earnings in the European Investment Bank and will not make any further budgetary contributions as defined in the Withdrawal Agreement until this claim is settled in full.
6) Apply the same rules to EU citizens now resident in UK as British citizens, and apply the same rules to EU applicants for immigration or visits to UK as it does to citizens of other countries.
7) Will review all EU funded programs in UK with a view to replacing that funding with UK funding subject to their meeting a new eligibility requirements designed to meet UK’s national interests.
8) UK will seek continuing participation in EU research and development and other projects on a case by case basis over the two years following Brexit.
9) UK will cease all contributions to EU defence and security programs as of midnight on 29 March 2019, including migrant operations in the Mediterranean, except for UK’s bilateral arrangements with member states and Europol. UK will support European defence exclusively through NATO.
That is just for starters. More if you would like them. Thanks for the opportunity to comment.
Unfortunately I think the government is no longer listening. It is now in transmit mode only, telling us why we a will accept Chequers.
August 27, 2018
Transmit mode = Dictator May. She has abolished democracy with her Chequers ONLY BRINO plan! Her duplicitous, deceitful behaviour and her party will never be forgotten or forgiven!
August 27, 2018
‘And finally, this last two years has taken its physical toll so I am announcing to conference that I will be standing down to give the opportunity to someone with renewed vigour to lead us and take advantage of the wonderful opportunities for this country once we are free from the shackles of the European Union.’
August 27, 2018
She should know by now that the EU side is not disposed to talking about new deals, and certainly not bespoke deals, not at this time. They are only mindful of getting a clean break to wrap up the paperwork before the European elections next May. So Mrs May should be telling the conference that after we leave and go to WTO rules we will then have plenty of time to consider FTA’s how we’re going from there- anything else we might say or do now is only pure speculation.
August 27, 2018
Obviously there must be reasons why it took so long to finalise the EU-Canada trade deal, and I suggest there were two separate predominant reasons:
1. The reason usually given, but especially by Remoaners:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/15/reality-check-will-it-take-10-years-to-do-a-uk-eu-trade-deal-post-brexit
“Trade deals are monumentally complex … Ceta, the EU-Canada deal, took seven years to negotiate and was about 22 years in the making.”
2. Another reason, never mentioned even though its factual basis is not exactly a secret, just not widely publicised: it was known from the start that there would be relatively little value in a deal for either side, and so perhaps there was no sense of urgency, no great rush to secure such marginal economic benefits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Economic_and_Trade_Agreement#Research_commissioned_by_negotiating_parties
“The EU-Canada Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) … completed in September 2011 … predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts, suggesting the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02–0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18–0.36%”.
August 27, 2018
How the Conservative Party could have a good party conference. Theresa May could stand up with all her Remainer colleagues in the cabinet and jointly resign.
August 27, 2018
I’m not interested in the Tory pary conference.
August 27, 2018
Agreed.
It is perfectly clear that the EU do not want “a deal” and are not trying to obtain one.
Firstly because they want to punish us in order to deter other countries from attempting to leave, secondly because any delay in the leaving date is of financial benefit to them and thirdly because they are hoping that our PM and Parliament will orchestrate a coup, seize power, and refuse to implement the referendum result with the excuse that the EU are totally uncooperative and will ground planes, will delay the shipping of food and medicines, cause troubles at the Ireland/N.I. border etc. etc..
This is not the first time that we have received threats from Europe and it remains to be seen if our current PM and Parliament will this time capitulate or implement the freedom and sovereignty for which the country voted.
August 27, 2018
You really believe that there is an EU that wants to harm the UK don’t you. A more or less supernatural phenomenon maybe?
August 27, 2018
You could ask Neil Kinnock’s son what he thinks.
August 27, 2018
Yes.
August 27, 2018
Yes, but they can do it far less once we are properly out.
August 28, 2018
Hard to ignore EU and euphilic words and deeds and even statements from officials;
EG In January 2018 CNBC reported Pierre Gramegna, the finance minister of Luxembourg, saying at the WEF ion Davos – “Many in Europe are looking to “punish” the U.K. for voting to leave the European Union” and “those with such an agenda would never admit to it”.
“There are many people out there who are trying to punish the United Kingdom without saying it — if you ask them they will deny it,” he said. “Let’s try to be more positive, let’s try to de-dramatize the whole negotiation.”
This and other statements, such as by the German MEP Hans-Olaf Henkel are easy enough to find.
August 27, 2018
Original Richard..nonsense the EU is not out to punish anyone, the are just standing still while the running on all of this is being done by our own side who don’t quite know what they want.. can’t make up their minds..’we want to leave’ but ‘we don’t want to leave’- what kind of logic is that- no wonder they are looking on aghast!
August 27, 2018
Cryingoutloud,
The confusion you describe is because although the UK voted to leave, the chief negotiator and a majority in Parliament are desperate for the UK to remain in the EU.
So they are not really negotiating with the EU, but rather colluding with the EU, and by delaying making the needed decisions to prepare for leaving hope that either the country will change its mind, or failing that, waiting for the right time to spring a coup, seize power and just tell the country that they will not be implementing the result of the referendum.
August 27, 2018
That is the May/Hammond plan and it will lead to Corbyn/SNP unless they are evicted.
August 27, 2018
Original Richard..even if the country changed it’s mind at this late stage it would not be acceptable to them. They only want us out now without a deal so that after the EU parliamentry elections next may they will be in a much better position to discuss our future with them..from a clean sheet..if you follow.
August 27, 2018
Original Richard.
Well I say bring it on. I hope the EU doesn’t give us a ‘deal’. Then we can go out into the world and show others how to leave and be a success. The EU isn’t the be all and end all.
August 27, 2018
I agree that the substance of your words should be the direction of travel for the government. Indeed it should have been from Day 1. Instead we, and senior members of her Cabinet, have been deceived by May. She is no longer believed or trusted by me nor, I suspect, by many others. If she does change tack as you propose, she will assert that it is not a U-turn just as Chequers was claimed to deliver Brexit. What will matter is what is actually delivered and who is really in charge of delivering it. Words from May have ceased to have meaning.
August 27, 2018
I agree. Millions up and down the Country are thinking and saying the same!
Never has there been such a betrayal of the British by a British Prime Minister. Heath follows as a close second!
August 27, 2018
Good morning
Actions speak louder than words. And her actions suggest that she is not listening.
Come October we will be roughly 6 months away from Leaving the EU. She will use the Conference to sell her sell out. I see no sign of change as her fellow MP’s do not want change.
August 27, 2018
Mr Redwood:
1. “the Canada Free Trade deal” will take years for Britain to agree. Years. We have a generously extended time limit until the beginning of December…
2. There are a lot of things in the Advice to Stakeholders which ought to be looked at before we make a statement like “Where lower level agreements or understandings are needed between the EU authorities and the UK government we are ready to put them in place”.
3. Unless the Irish border problem is solved there will be no deal from the EU because they cannot do it.
Mrs May can say and do what she wants: outside the EEA she is stumped.
August 27, 2018
Like your mentor you have drifted over to the wrong side.
August 27, 2018
An excellent speech by our host.
If only our PM would make it.
It is time for some plain talking.
PS latest Project Fear 2.0 is the Grand National horse race might be disrupted by brexit.
It is getting very silly.
August 27, 2018
Edward2. At least we wouldn’t have to see perfectly healthy horses being put down.
August 27, 2018
BBC online today “Wholesale vegetable prices had jumped between March and July, with onion prices up 41%, carrots by 80%, and wheat for bread by a fifth”
In my shopping basket my three online retailers have REDUCED the first two items by the amount said that wholesale has rise and the price of my bread stayed the same.
It must be retailers are not only not passing the wholesale prices on to consumers but actually reducing them massively. Odd.
August 27, 2018
Heaven forbid that she attempts to sell us that she is on the right course and emulates Cameron after he returned from his useless tour of the EU prior to the referendum. If she tries to sell any part of Chequers she will have a riot on her hands and it will destroy the conservative party as we know it.
The EU’s single aim is to destroy Brexit and capture the UK which they have been trying to do for decades. The public knows this and voted to LEAVE and regain control and those ardent remainers are no more than quislings encouraging the EU negotiators.
EU industry and commerce will go for a Canada+++ as you have pointed out many times and it is only the unelected few at the top of the EU that want to punish us. If we let them do it, it will be the worst legacy that we could ever leave our children and grand children.
Let’s hope and pray that she uses your text
August 27, 2018
George
“The EU’s single aim is to destroy Brexit and capture the UK which they have been trying to do for decades.”
==
What an absurd twisting of the facts. Ted Heath practically begged on his knees for Britain to be allowed to join what has become the world’s most successful trading bloc. Unfortunately Germany supported Heath against De Gaulle’s warning words of ‘la perfide Albion’.
After decades of Britain demanding special treatment and opt outs to suit itself rather than the whole community, after Brexit there will be heard a loud
“GOOD RIDDANCE”
August 28, 2018
For once Margaret I think you are correct.
The EU will be happier after we leave
We can rediscover ourselves as an independent nation and the EU can carry on with it’s 5 Presidents long term plan to turn itself into the United States of Europe.
August 27, 2018
Dream on, she is hopelessly out of her depth in any ministerial job as shown with her time as Home Secretary – her legacy of police numbers, crime, immigration and prisons says it all.
August 27, 2018
Mrs May (a Remainer) was given the benefit of the doubt when she became PM and said “Brexit means Brexit”. In the interim she has shown herself to be duplicitous and mendacious. She has last what trust she had. She must be replaced and very soon if you want your party to remain one of the two major parties in the UK. Labour has the same problem of poor leadership in the persona of Corbyn. Whichever party acts first to change its ‘leader’ is likely to re-secure its position and win the next election.
August 27, 2018
In any case having betrayed the trust I reposed in her at the last election she has now ensured that I will never again under any circumstances vote for her party.
August 27, 2018
+1
Can’t stand the sight of her.
August 27, 2018
The Tory Party Conference should be revolution. Transfer now,
the present anger in our hearts, and possibly the future anger on our streets, to the confines of the Conference Hall.
Make the Tory Conference the loudest, the most raucous, the most visually and audible spectacle of the traditional Tory Party sit on your seats, stiff horizontal lips, orchestrated laughter, claps, jack-in-a-box standing ovations to dribble for the cameras.
Show Freedom!!!! Show Rebellion!!! Show the debate is over!!! Show those Fake News cameras in their exciting anticipation of Boredom, Same, Dead Parrot Minds, that the United Kingdom is on fire with hope, knowing that we will, be Free! Free at last!!!
The Fake News will seize on every picture, every word, repeat it as criticism of a Party falling apart. But it will be the exact opposite and Show our people you know where it’s at! Sunrise!!!!
August 27, 2018
Why have you put quotation marks if it has not already been said?
Just listening the BBC TV a swimmer was featured swimming around the Scilly isles , the English channel and the British coastline.His main concern was to find that hardly any fish could be seen. Our waters he said have been over fished and he is going to present his finding to Michael Gove.
August 27, 2018
@margaret “Why have you put quotation marks if it has not already been said?”
It is something to do with English.
Our schools should start teaching it again if they can find a native speaker who the education authorities do not regard as a rustic below their unspeakable intellectuality.
August 27, 2018
If you are going to quote something or somebody you put quotation marks . If it has not been said or written you cannot quote it ! If it is your own opinion it does not require quotation marks .That is grammar.
August 27, 2018
If you are quoting your own text in a secondary manner, incorporated into a letter etc then you can use quotation marks.
August 27, 2018
What is more it cannot even be regarded as speech as it is not direct speech.
August 30, 2018
@margaret
I have read your three comments.
Years ago, and I hesitate, as terms do change with time and with author, what JR wrote could at worst be termed the use of “contextual grammar”.
Better, I think, to view each person’s text, as “their own grammar”.
One may also be able to see “JR-as-actor” when he places quotation marks in this particular blog to which you refer as an indication he is “on stage” actually acting the part of Mrs May and the quotation marks indicate it is her possible speech through is his own update of what it should be. In short, he is playing Mrs May in a scenario where she knows what she is doing. Sheer fantasy of course.
I guess margaret, you probably read it as you and I mostly read and understand other texts. However, JR has great ability to as it were JUMP from one world of discourse to a another. He is not bad at English.
August 27, 2018
So the BBC this morning is broadcasting their doom propaganda of Brexit, food, another referendum…with no counter-balance opinion or coverage. 1930s Pravda…with Lenin of the Red Party waiting to give us a right Venezuela where it hurts
August 27, 2018
Indeed they are clearly a state propaganda outfit especially when trying to kill Brexit.
But also they are also wrong (and hugely biased) on open door immigration, climate alarmism, ever larger government, pro bikes but against landlords, trucks, cars and planes.
But not for themselves of course in the do as we say not as we do mode.
August 27, 2018
@Lifelogic
Have you noticed the street demos by EU flag wavers have vanished recently?
Rain and young students off on their holidays. “I can’t come to the revolution today comrade, I am on sunning myself in Miami “
August 27, 2018
Good try John, but would you trust her to control any further negotiating that she does not believe in. You are very loyal, but we outside the bubble have no need to be, being only interested in the best outcome that we cannot see being concluded by May, Hammond and Robbins. They are a WW1 leadership. The country is worthy of better, which at least means individuals who believe in what they are doing and do not treat the electorate with contempt by lying to them in the cynical manner we have experienced.
Incidentally no mention of financial services. By omission or design? I think it must be a Free Trade Treaty incorporating Financial Services.
A thought for the European producers of goods and services, especially those exporting food to us. The EU needs reminding that we are appalled by their disdain for their own hard working producers, potentially being sacrificed on the EU’s altar of inflexible dogma.
August 27, 2018
Actually, what she should say is this:
“The party of Churchill and Thatcher is a proudly pro-European party. For too long we have tolerated dissent from a small but extremely vocal group of anti-European who were happy to take party money at election time, but who spent the rest of the time fighting against their government and their country. Enough.
“This ragtag band of largely second rate MPs has brought this party and this country to the brink of collapse. They lied to all of us in this room about their motives. They lied to the wider party. And they lied to the British people.”
“This small group has been a cancer on British politics, stopping us from taking our true place at the heart of the EU. Brexit, as we have learned, will not be what they promised. We have looked carefully at all the option and each will be devastating to our country. As a responsible leader it is my job to put the wider interests of the country before the narrow rantings of a small group of Conservatives.
“I have today written to President Tusk asking for the article 50 process to be paused indefinitely while we try to resolve this mess the Eurosceptics have created. I have also asked the Queen to establish a Royal Commission – composed on the best minds from all sides of the debate to establish a way forward. And I have told the party chairman to expel immediately from the Conservative party, those Eurosceptic MPs who have long sought to undermine this party and this country. I say to these MPs you do not belong in a pro-European party. You are welcome to join UKIP.
Finally, I have asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament and for there to be a general election. I am standing down. I can not, in all conscience, lead a party which has rejected its children and grandchildren in favour of ranting angry pensioners. I apologise to all of my countrymen for what my party has done to them and I urge you all to vote for another party.
Reply This is a wonderful statement of anti democratic authoritarianism. Such a course of action would of course lead to the loss of many Conservative seats. Do you remember the pro Euro Conservative party started by John Stevens which I think got just 1% of the vote! The Conservative party is the party of Brexit, which is the mainstream view of our country.
August 27, 2018
Ah! The ”pensioner” insult again, Andy. Haven’t you realised yet that you negate any argument you may have by such gratuitous attempts at denigration of the opinions of people older than yourself?
Such pathetic attempts at mockery of people with more experience of life and work than you (probably will ever) have are becoming tedious in the extreme.
August 27, 2018
“If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain.”
Clearly I had no heart even when about 12 (though I was quite kind to elderly neighbours, helping them and fixing things for them) I always quite liked taking things to bits to see how they worked).
Having watched PMs such as Harold Wilson and Ted Heath convinced me, even at that 12 that socialism, big government and over high taxes were a very bad thing indeed. But my teens I know that I wanted to leave the EU but was too young to vote. This as leave the proponents clearly had the better arguments.
August 27, 2018
I keep telling him that 47% of his age group did their bit and voted Brexit.
This is sticking to the age groupings that the statisticians chose, of course. I’ll be charitable and assume that they didn’t have an agenda.
If I put Andy in the age grouping that an 18-year-old would percieve him to be in (40 to 55, because we all look the same to them) then Andy’s age group voted well over 50% Leave.
He’ll soon be aware of the fact that his ageing is about to take on a shocking rapidity.
In reality that 23 years or so zooms by in what feels like 7. Just a little further on he’ll qualify for that care home kicking that he’s been stoking up for old people.
August 27, 2018
Like a soldier turning up at Waterloo in 1817, Andy fights a battle decided two years ago. He stamps up and down, moustachios bristling, and swishes his terrible sword at a long-vanished foe. The cows eye him mildly. Above his head the larks sing.
The war’s over, Andy. Time to win the peace.
August 27, 2018
L Jones
“Ah! The ”pensioner” insult again, Andy. Haven’t you realised yet that you negate any argument you may have by such gratuitous attempts at denigration of the opinions of people older than yourself?”
No, he is spot on.
Leave voters by age (Lord Ashcroft poll)
18-24 year-olds 27%
25-34 year-olds 38%
35-44 year-olds 48%
45-54 year-olds 56%
55-64 year-olds 57%
65+ year-olds 60%
The young are much better educated and more cosmopolitan.
August 28, 2018
So from your figures from a small sample poll we can see a majority of people over 45 years of age voted to leave.
And those 35 to 44 years of age nearly half voted to leave.
Pensioners start at retirement age which is approx 65.
And we don’t have numbers for each demographic section so we can’t deduct what effect on the overall final total vote each age group had.
PS only about 35% of youngsters eligible to vote bothered to vote
August 28, 2018
margaret howard
Thanks for that Andy is 44 so he is in the 48-56% voter range
“The young are much better educated and more cosmopolitan” but couldn’t find their way to a polling station to cast a vote . Lol
August 27, 2018
The Conservative Party has indeed become the party of Brexit. Which was the mainstream view of 37% of those who voted in 2016 – mainly angry pensioners and semi-literate thugs – and is now the mainstream view of far fewer. Thank you for confirming your party’s irrelevance.
August 27, 2018
Andy
I am an illiterate thug, no brains and an angry pensioner
What do you describe yourself as………….?
August 28, 2018
Wrong as ever, according to Wikipedia it was 51.89% of those who voted to leave against 48.11% who voted to stay in 2016 with a turnout of 71.21%. You cannot make any assumptions about those who chose not to vote except they would be subject to the outcome which in this case was to leave the EU.
August 27, 2018
Pro European yes absolutely.
But not the EU.
August 27, 2018
The people you criticise got us the opt out from the euro which the likes of you would no doubt have had us join – with catastrophic effect.
August 27, 2018
Have you checked the Sterling Euro exchange rate recently? No. I thought not.
August 27, 2018
Over the years we have been in the EU the pound has varied from near parity to over 1.70
Why was that?
August 27, 2018
Andy – and have you checked Facebook recently to make sure you’re still on the right track? Yes – I thought so.
Poor Andy. Tilting at windmills still (or, should I say, turbines – you’ll understand that analogy perhaps).
Remember, once again, Andy – we Brexiteers are NOT all pensioners. That term that you use instead of less acceptable (and moderatable) epithet.
August 27, 2018
It’s downward trajectory can be drawn in a straight slope… from around 2000 when the Labour government went socialist and the Tories continued it.
You could not tell the Brexit vote if I presented it to you without a time scale. But yeah. All the BBC and Chancellor’s gloominess can’t have done it any good.
August 27, 2018
@Andy – You are of course familiar with FCO30/1048 which clarifies the massive loss of sovereignty as a consequence of joining the EEC in 1975 with the inevitable end to our parliamentary democracy. You must be familiar with it as you have advocated just such an anti-democratic course of action.
You also appear to forget that the decision to leave the EU was already made and Mrs May took on the express responsibility to deliver it.
If our democratic choice is to be respected and preserved then we must leave the EU and it’s trappings, an honest government has no option.
August 27, 2018
@Andy: well done. I like the Royal Commission. It should look at foreign (and not only Russian) influencers too. Divided loyalties galore, looking at the various ethnic groups., dual nationality people and well financed agenda’s.
@ John Redwood: what is undemocratic about expelling (or removing Party support from) disloyal party members and giving them a second chance in a fresh election without financial etc Party support of course? I think that being blackmailed by a small minority (less than a third I reckon) of MPs is more likely to lead to an undemocratic outcome.
Reply Pro Brexit MPs are the big majority, speak for a majority of the public and have been loyal to many 3 line whips which the small Remain rump of Tory MPs opposed disloyally
August 28, 2018
Foreign influence like Obama, Macron, Hollande, even the Australian PM, IMF, Canadian BoE govenor. Well financed like spending twine what Leave spent without the civil service propaganda expense on false predictions. Your financial expertise seems to be shaky.
August 27, 2018
Hopefully she is presented with a P45 for real this time.
August 27, 2018
T. May. Lemming in chief. Marching her troops over the cliff to oblivion.
But still a price worth paying to keep us shackled to the rotting corpse of the EU.
Time’s running out for you John.
August 27, 2018
Apart from tradition, is there a proper reason in sending a Conference entrance ticket to Theresa May? She can sit at home and watch telly like the rest of us not involved in serious matters, put her feet up, dip her bread in. See the next leader of the Party on screen.
August 27, 2018
She’s as stubborn as a mule and a remainer at heart so no way is she going to back down from the Chequers proposals. She takes us all for fools and thinks if she keeps repeating it enough, we’ll all fall for it.
John, how many more times? For the sake of the party but more importantly the country, you have to get rid of her and Hammond now and put Boris or JRM in charge. That’s the only way we have a chance of getting the Brexit we voted for and being free of the EU once and for all.
August 27, 2018
Theresa May needs not a good party conference but a good LEAVING party!
August 27, 2018
I think the acid test on this is, if Mrs May made this speech, would you, Mr Redwood, believe she meant to implement a word of it?
Reply The point would be that she is implementing it. We would soon find out!
August 27, 2018
Private sector balances ( SECTORAL BLANCES) in most western economies are now negative or near negative and this means recessions are not far away if they don’t change their course.
Trump is a Keynsian and showing you how it should be breaking spending records and tax cuts.
When all you worry about is the defict which is the private sector surplus and the national debt which is that surplus moved into gilts.
Japan Debt to GDP ratio 253%
Japan 10 year government bond 0.10%
Destroys every economic theory the fiscal conservatives have ever written.
Brexit is the time to change the narrative but you won’t the party will continue with the nonsense that government finances operates like household budgets which caused brexit and the rise of populism everywhere in the first place. Which means the Tory party is finished in its current form anyways.
August 27, 2018
In reality, I don’t think the country would be impressed by rudeness, or non-statesman-like behaviour, either from the podium, or the Conference floor.
The speech you have sketched out would be a very plausible effort, consistent with the PM’s rhetoric hitherto, but embodying a responsibly radical change of tactic re Brexit. The problem would then not be the PM, but the Tory Remainers. However, their electoral fate will likely be sealed, if she gets it wrong.
I also hope she will not glory in all the ‘progressive liberalism’ stuff – ordinary folks out in the country are not too impressed with that. When will their views be taken account of?
I’m sure there’ll be a lot of tension below the surface, but it’s not impossible for Mrs May to save the day, along your suggested lines – I do hope she’s listening!
Certainly, the future of the country depends on it.
August 27, 2018
“Some say this cannot be done in just a few months. I disagree. If there is a will there is a way. Both the UK and the EU have accepted the Canada Free Trade deal the EU has recently signed.”
Even if in theory a free trade deal between the UK and the EU could be concluded quickly enough as you suppose, JR, what in practice would be the benefits to us, and what further concessions would the UK government make to secure those benefits?
I repeated again yesterday what I have been saying for a long time, that the EU-Canada deal is close to worthless as a means to enhance the prosperity of either side:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/26/the-treasury-is-too-gloomy/#comment-957049
“Supposing we took the place of Canada in the EU-Canada deal, CETA, which is what people keep talking about, then that might be better for us than the WTO baseline by a one-off 0.4% of our GDP … ”
Far more important than trying to get that one-off gain of maybe 0.4% of GDP or less, equivalent to the natural growth of the UK economy over less than two months at the long term trend growth rate of 2.5% a year – in fact, the UK economy may have grown by that much just during the period of accelerated negotiations – would be to make sure that all practical and legal arrangements had been made for a smooth and orderly transition to the default position of the trading on the basis of the WTO treaties.
Then later when that transition had been made and things had settled down on the basis of the WTO treaties, which already exist and are already in force and guarantee us default trading rights automatically without any need for supplication to the EU, then we could propose the negotiation of some special or preferential trade deal with the EU.
This is of course what Remoaners like Philip Hammond fear, which is why they tell lies about the economic impact of defaulting to the WTO arrangements for trade:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/26/the-treasury-is-too-gloomy/#comment-957055
“I should think Michel Barnier is laughing up his sleeve at us; in his 2012 report he claimed that creation of the EU Single Market had been worth a little over 2% added to the collective GDP of the EU member states, so it will amuse him when Philip Hammond inflates that to 8% of our GDP.”
August 27, 2018
The government’s analysis suggests that Brexit would lead to a long-run fall in actual UK GDP of 3.8% under the Norway option, 6.2% under the Canada option and 7.5% under the WTO option.To put this into context in in 2008/9 the UK lost 0.5% GDP and in 2009/10 4.2% before returning to something like normal growth.
The EU have made it quite clear that CETAis not available to the UK without considerably more alignment than applies to Canada . They cannot have a country free to ditch social and environmental costs in their market on competitive terms undermining the EU itself
Proximity and size may imply cooperation; they also imply conflict as the 20th century would show anyone with half a brain
The transference to WTO schedule s to the UK has already been objected to by key markets
The country is starting to realise this insanity has to be stopped and if there is anything Conservative left about the Conservative Party the conference will turn in horror form the devastation and political extremism their folly has engendered and think again.
August 27, 2018
The government’s analysis in April 2016 warned of a recession if we so much as voted to leave the EU, instead two years after the referendum GDP was nearly 10% above its dire prediction; 10% out in its prediction of GDP, Newmania, that is how much the government’s economic analyses are worth and if you and other Remoaners had a scrap of integrity between you then you would acknowledge that and not repeat the new editions as if they have any greater credibility than previous editions.
August 27, 2018
You don’t actually accept these Treasury figures do you? They utilise flawed computer modelling that has failed to provide an accurate prediction to date. Their Referendum “Scares” have all proven false.
Just where and when have the EU refused CETA to us? Ditto “Key markets” whatever they may be and their objections re WTO rules.
WTO will provide an Internationally recognised starting point for the Country to make its own Trade Deals with the Rest of the World – which is ten times larger than the diminishing but still profligate, EU. Our future lies out there with them and not chained to a terminal EU.
BTW we are leaving on March 29th next year as it is British Law so there will not be any ‘thinking again’.
August 27, 2018
A 15 year total guess.
August 27, 2018
Mrs May has been spectacularly badly served by ‘advisers to the Prime Minister’ Nick & Fiona then Oliver. The Cabinet has been sidelined in favour of these chancers. Poor judgement on her part.
August 27, 2018
The Labour Party moderates are keeping their powder dry until they feel Corbyn and his new Communist/Marxist Party are at their most vulnerable and they will then pounce.
This will coincide with the Conservative Party imploding because of the anti democratic, EU adoring , limp wristed majority of MPs, Lords, and Civil Service.
Voters will see a useless Tory Party , a new moderate progressive Labour Party , and Labour will achieve a 100+ seat majority at the next General Election.
RIP Conservative Party and MPs. Sad, very sad.
August 27, 2018
@ Arthur
I agree with your definition of the majority of Tory MP’s, spot on.
However I’m not sure it’s possible to predict the outcome of this mess, it’s a unique situation this country has never found itself in.
The way I see it things are deadlocked, mainly because the Europhiles were quick to their man in, as it were.
Given that the referendum result was a majority voting to leave, then the selection should have been someone aligned with that result. What actually happened could be perceived as a coup, but is certainly a corruption of democratic process.
In my opinion Theresa May should not be allowed anything to do with brexit, she’s ideologically incompatible, a closet lilly livered liberal, and many say grossly incompetent.
If she is not replaced very soon the only outcome I can imagine might be a hung parliament at the next GE, with abysmal turn out. Maybe the Head of State having to intervene, but almost certainly the possibility of mass civil unrest.
Anyone who thinks there will not be a backlash, the likes of which we have not yet seen in this country really needs to think again. People will vent much anger if this government delivers BINO, and they’ll be after the perpetrators for sure.
Which ever way the deadlock is broken it’ll be pretty unpleasant, either with a ‘night of the long knives’ in the conservative party, or anarchy on the streets as people will just refuse to recognise government and the EU laws it tries to enforce.
Unless she goes and we get patriotic leadership, things could get very nasty.
August 27, 2018
‘Twould be a great speech.
But should be delivered in the Commons not at party conference.
I am not holding my breath.
August 27, 2018
In passing.
My 3 candidates for prime minister would be : Boris, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood.
August 27, 2018
Two too cowardly ever to stand, one who did and got pulverised
August 27, 2018
Unfair on J Redwood. Losing is no crime. I disagree with his attitude now towards Mrs May but he was principled in the 1990s
August 27, 2018
Yes it’ll be the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone that will catch us out in the end..so long as we hang on to that part of Ireland we will never be truly independent. Trouble is we couldn’t give the place away now even if we wanted- it’s the albatross around the neck..like one that on a lonesome road..
August 27, 2018
@cryingoutloud
… hang on to that part of Ireland…”
We shall hang on as you call it just as we shall hang on to London, I’m English, my grandfather was born there. It is MY land.
August 27, 2018
That would be a great approach, and it would also resolve the Irish border because a FTA could contain a special provision for that. However, it is unlikely that Mrs May will ditch the Chequers deal simply because Parliament has a majority Remainer MPs and they want Chequers. It’s unbelievable that they want it because it is very bad for Britain, but it reflects the misguided Remainer attitude, too trusting of the EU, desperate to stay in it in some way and what appears to be total ignorance of EU law.
August 27, 2018
If only Mrs May would listen to the advice given by her experienced and knowledgeable back benchers AND act upon it.
Ever since the disastrous GE and “That” manifesto, she has listened only to those SPADs and Mandarins she surrounds herself with.
They are all unelected people and have responsibility neither to the party nor the public. Only themselves and that is the worry. Too many Remainers in Cabinet exacerbate the problem and is causing great exasperation around the country because the vast majority of the “Working class” voted to LEAVE.
It is time for her to wake up or walk out.
August 27, 2018
Get that chap back with her P45.
Seriously though, she’ll avoid all mention of Brexit.
Guaranteed.
August 27, 2018
Plastic bags, the gender pay gap, attack on landlords, “investment” in the NHS and this and that, wage controls, price controls, more workers and tenants “right”, dog & cat not for sale in pet shops …
She is a daft socialist, climate alarmist, tax increasing, EUphile remainer from top to bottom.
All the main real issues will be ignored.
August 27, 2018
Teresa May will have a good conference if the scenery does not fall down behind her and she doesn’t develop a cough. An excellent conference will be if she is not baited by a comedian while speaking.
Such is the expectation level of this ineffectual leader.
She is most unlikely to say the things you wrote Mr Redwood it will be platitudes and the delegates will accept them.
If the delegates don’t accept them, then things will get interesting.
August 27, 2018
Maybe the conference could be an improvement on last year if she were to stand directly underneath the scenery…
August 27, 2018
My oh my, what a mess we are in, tragically so easily solved.
Arguably however, May’s job was never going to be a walk in the park, and there’s the fact that she’s a remainer at heart, and the first thing she did was incorporate EU law into ours, then stuck it everyone who believed we would get our fishing waters back.
It was obvious soon as she took office she was going to sell us out. She’s merely a tool of the remain side.
However I do think mass walk-outs at the conference is a good idea if that’s what it takes to get the message across.
This will all ultimately boil down to one circumstance; namely the government going against the electorate, despite being warned not to.
The favoured way this could be turned around is by May’s replacement with a PM who’s ideology is aligned with that of the majority electorate. i.e a brexiteer.
In theory that cannot happen since the conservative eurosceptics do not have a majority. So we are deadlocked.
It must be broken somehow if we are to avoid mass demonstrations and civil unrest on the streets, possibly worse.
The only ways I see a solution is if somehow there’s enough letters to trigger vote of no confidence, or we get to general election and UKIP wins. The conservative party will of course cease to exist at that point, particularly if May is still in office.
Unfortunately she’s too sly for most people’s liking, too treacherous, and arrogant in that she refuses to be public facing, instead galavanting on tangents to seek approvals from Merkel, offer sell outs to Macron, etc.
I have this very simple message for the tories; ditch and replace her with a brexiteer who is not a liberal in disguise. Then just pray the electorate will forgive. Failure to do this very soon indeed will ensure the conservative’s annihilation to the polls. The woman is a liability and you must get rid now.
August 27, 2018
@Steve
A walk out from Conference? A bit dramatic don’t you think? Wouldn’t looking more than a little cross be more appropriate?
August 27, 2018
I see the Remainers/Remoaners are out in force on this forum today spouting Project Fear Rev. 2
Good! Just reinforces the universal opinion they are at a loss as to how to defend their narrative, which usually contains sheer illusory nonsense.
Keep it up Remainer/Remoaner Ladies and Gentlemen, the harder you delusively bleat, the more enjoyable it is to see you losing the debate!
August 27, 2018
” both the EU and UK have accepted the Canada deal” and we’ll piggy back from there..so says JR our resident expert..well i doubt very much if that will be acceptable to them..because what may be suitable for Canada will not be suitable as a shoein for UK..in fact It’ll probably take years to work out a new deal that’s suitable to everyone..it’ll be UK versus the remaining EU 27 who will all certainly be looking out for their own interests- and may even be EU 28, 29 or 30 or more by then. Guaranteed
August 27, 2018
Trade carried on between Canada and the EU during the many years the two sets of bureaucrats sat round tables chatting for years doing their deals.
August 27, 2018
“and may even be EU 28, 29 or 30 or more by then”
Which is very different from the Common Market we voted to remain in in 1975. So who wants to be a member of a club that just lets anyone in ?
August 28, 2018
Like the UN and NATO, like the WTO and the Commonwealth? how many members in these clubs?
August 28, 2018
Yes, the Canada deal is a non-starter because it’ll do nothing for our service industry – the key to a proper deal. More nonsense from Mr Redwood.
August 27, 2018
It’s a shocking indictment of the Prime Minister, but a sentiment most of us, and I think the country, will agree with and support. I am however gravely disappointed that she is still in post and is being allowed to behave as she is and has. She is clearly subversive of our democratic will and desires and does not deserve the tolerance she has been shown so far..
August 27, 2018
Just for interest, here is a 2013 House of Commons Library report entitled:
“The economic impact of EU membership on the UK”
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06730
and on page 5 there is a schematic headed:
“Selected estimates of the net benefits to the UK of EU membership”
They had in fact selected eight estimates of the net benefit as a percentage of GDP, which in round numbers ranged from -5 to +6, with UKIP being the most pessimistic estimate and the only government estimate, that from the Department of Business Innovation and Skills, being the most optimistic.
Interestingly both the EU Commission and the NIESR came out with estimates of the net benefit at around a third of the government’s estimate, but that from the EU Commission being the average for the whole of the EU and therefore very likely to be higher than it would be just for the UK.
The UK government and its domestic allies, including mainly large companies involved in trade with the EU, and especially with exports to the EU, which amount to just 12% of our GDP exported by a mere 6% of UK companies, have always greatly exaggerated the overall economic effects, presumed “benefits”, of EEC/EC/EU membership; and of course Philip Hammond is still doing that now, “as a dog returneth to its vomit”.
August 27, 2018
She started with lies on the steps of 10 Downing Street,more lies at Lancaster House and still more lies in Italy.How on earth she can expect support at the Conference is amazing,but as one of the earlier commentators mentioned she will no doubt get a standing ovation instead of the barrage of rotten tomatoes that she deserves.
August 28, 2018
She still hasn’t told as many lies as the Leave campaign.
August 27, 2018
Do excuse my mixed-metaphors, then again don’t, I’m British and I’ll metaphor as much and in what way I bw choose, as is my birthright!
August 27, 2018
In my dreams….
August 27, 2018
Off topic
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1009154/Brexit-news-update-Peoples-Vote-Brexit-no-deal-Will-Dry-latest
It’s snowflakes like him from the south that try’s to keep the dream of a second referendum alive, what these snowflake millenniums want to get into there thick skulls is that Brussels have plans to have a European forces which these snowflakes would be compulsory conscripted into, muppets the lot of them, but hey what do we the older generation know , I’ll tell you what a hell of a lot more than you snowflakes knows, end of
August 27, 2018
We haven’t seen Boris for yonks. It’s like waiting for the Bride isn’t it.
Except you can bet your bottom dollar he won’t be wearing a veil
And show us all up.
August 28, 2018
And Pork imports might fly over from Denmark !
May does nòt have the strength of character to make case for a WTO exit and could not get it througb a parliament dominated by cowardly Remainers.
August 29, 2018
It does not matter what May or anyone else does. Barnier and his ilk will continue to block any sensible deal. They believe the BBC has persuaded everyone that no deal is a bad deal and that we’ll capitulate at the 11th hour. Trump showed May and everyone else exactly how to deal with the EU. Take it and prosper or leave it and suffer!
Quite why any country who takes more out than they put in has a vote still mystifies me. What a cheek! You can’t fix your own economy but you think you know what’s best for everyone else?
August 29, 2018
On the other hand, we could just kick her out and give the job to Boris…?