The government’s forecasts for electricity generation in the UK are curious. They show an increase of under one percent in the first half of the current decade, and an increase of just 8.6% for the decade as a whole. This is odd because the government is very clear it wants an electric revolution. It wants many householders to switch from gas to electricity for their heating systems. It wants many drivers to switch from diesel and petrol cars to electric vehicles. Indeed, it wishes to ban new petrol and diesel cars in 2030. It wants process industry to seek to replace gas based heat systems with electric ones. All this implies you would have thought a substantial increase in the need for electricity.
The government’s figures only makes sense if one of the following three outcomes happens. The low requirement for electricity may imply that the government is not expecting much by way of take up of electric cars and electric heating systems this decade after all. The main target is for 2050, though the intermediate targets are meant to be getting tougher.
The figures may imply that the government plans for us to import many more of the things that generate a lot of carbon dioxide, allowing the UK to hit tougher national targets for CO2 reduction whilst not reducing the CO2 for the world, as we will be importing them instead. The more products needing high energy content that we import the less we need power here for the factories. If we import more electricity that is also not in the figures.
The third possibility is that the forecasts are wrong, and we will need considerably more electricity than is allowed for in these figures and plan.
The government figures allow for the closure of all but one of our existing nuclear plants by 2030, with the addition of one new large plant that only offsets part of the loss of capacity. The government still plans for the closure of the three remaining coal power stations, so presumably this is allowed for in these figures. The government is also supporting substantial increases in wind power which will add to capacity, though not when there is no wind . There needs to be some averaging of the figures and some back up capacity available.
It would be interesting to hear comments on the likely speed of customer take up of the new electrical technologies, and comment on what this will mean for electricity demand.
February 2, 2022
Good Morning,
Sir John, let’s face it, the ONLY reason your party is in governments is because the alternative in 2019 was even worse. Your party have been a bunck of careless, entitled, incompetents since Mrs Thatcher.
How are you and the thinking members of your party going to fix it? I hear Bunter was again lauded by your mindless colleagues at their meeting on Monday. Does it realy only take a couple of weak jokes and jolly face to quell their concerns and keep them under his thumb. Bunch of useless dross.
February 2, 2022
People vote Tory only as the alternative Labour/SNP/LibDim/Plaid & the Green MP are even worse. Similarly if they retain Boris it will only be because all the realistic alternatives are even worse than Boris. They need to undo all the vast Sunak tax grabs, ditch net zero and stop pissing money down the drain all over the place. Plus halve the size of government and a huge bonfire of red tape.
February 2, 2022
Nice fantasy. But that’s all it is. The WEF think we are happy to pay more tax so its useful servants, the CON Party, is now more left-wing than NuLabour.
February 2, 2022
Keep an eye on the WEF website to stay informed about the policies of the legacy political parties.
February 2, 2022
Yes in essence it is the people that have created this problem by their idiotic loyalties to political parties, thus leaving themselves open to abuse, to be taken for granted and fools in general.
It is the people who are too timid to take a chance and so cling to the same old same old, with limp excuses for doing so, such as ‘well Labour would do x,y,z only to find the alternative they’ve voted for does x,y,z but slightly differently.
Only the people can make the radical change needed but I’d lay good money on that not happening.
February 2, 2022
Correct. We saw “loyalty” in action with (amongst others) the energy and insurance companies.
If you didn’t regularly switch supplier they steadily increased your bills and any cheap deals on offer were only for new customers.
The Establishment Parties operate basically the same scam. Unless enough people switch, they “take” more and more. But they are protected by FPTP and the mainstream media and, since they operate CONsensus on key policy areas, switching between them achieves nothing. Significant numbers have to vote for an insurgent party to force change.
February 2, 2022
Michelle,
+100%.
Yes the solution is in the hands of the voters, but unfortunately, most of the electorate are useless.
February 2, 2022
+1
When we change, they will change.
February 2, 2022
Ah, the Ratner ploy, insult and abuse your potential customers and of course they will choose you.
How about giving voters a realistic alternative instead of simply making wild promises at general elections with no credibility to them back up.
But establishing credibility, like in any field, is such hard work and takes time.
February 2, 2022
Ll the only party worth voting for must be Reform U.K. They couldnât be any worse than the rest unless of course the Tories can magically find a new leader who believes in Brexit fully and is not tax or net zero mad and can relate and listen to the man in the street.
February 3, 2022
Oh how I agree with lifelogic.
Please Sir John find some way to steer your leader away from his ridiculous Net Zero fixation.
Perhaps those ‘Forecasts’ were calculated during one of the ‘Boozy Parties, oh I mean Work Meetings’ !
Or is the whole Net Zero ‘thing’ actually planned by Carrie Johnson?
Then there is Illegal Immigration across the Channel. Is YOUR Party going to listen to Macron and make a legal route for them?
I thought we were supposed to have LEFT the E.U.
Is YOUR Party going to be dragged into war over Ukraine because Biden’s U.S.A. wants it?
So much like Blair and Iraq.
I nearly always agree with what you say in this Diary. But over and over I wish you would say these things to the Ministers, Heads of Departments or whatever, that are supposed to be Governing the country, FOR the country and for no one else.
February 7, 2022
Tory energy palliatives are unrealistic. Due to years of silly green nonsense UK is in a decades long energy jam which will only ease when we grow our own – coal, fracking gas (does not harm the environment) and nuclear. By the way. CO2 is not the climate driver, the globe is hardly warming, there is no Climate Crisis, warming is good, we need more CO2, Net Zero has never been defined, it will bring an unparalleled economic calamity.
February 2, 2022
You are so right, Peter! Mrs Thatcher ensured Britian was at the heart of Europe – she built the single market! As she said in her historic Bruges speech, and I quote, “Britain does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community. Our destiny is in Europe, as part of the Community”. Ever since she left power the Conservative party has been driven by fanatics determined to trash her legacy: the Eurosceptics brought down PMs Major, Cameron and May because they tried to be realistic about our relationship with the EU. The Eurosceptics don’t want realism, they only want fanaticism. So here we are in 2022, an isolated existence on the fringes, led by a man who is not remotely serious about anything and who would, I assure you, have bene nowhere near a Thatcher cabinet. Tragic
February 2, 2022
Indeed. But once the maastricht treaty set political and monetary union in motion she favoured Brexit, as she made clear repeatedly to biographers, historians etc.
February 2, 2022
Yes, they are absolutists like the fanatics that we see from time to time around the world.
They cannot be satisfied without destroying their respective countries, and then blame the people instead of themselves for that.
February 2, 2022
Are not you and Gary and young andy not “absolutists” or even “fanatics” for your very pro EU opinions?
Or is it just anyone with a different opinion to you all?
February 2, 2022
Mrs Thatcher wanted free trade on the principles of mutual recognition and trusted trading. The Commission wanted political control of the individual nations through minute regulation. Guess who won?
February 2, 2022
Then perhaps she could have been a bit disappointed with this report issued by Michel Barnier in 2012:
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/c505dbb4-64f1-40a6-8062-ebdea6240bd4
“20 years of the European single market”
On page 13:
âEU27 GDP in 2008 was 2.13 per cent or âŹ233 billion higher than it would have been if the Single Market had not been launched in 1992â.
But according to data from the ONS:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea
the UK economy grew by no less than 26 times that paltry 2.13 per cent, over 55 per cent, during the same period, an average growth rate of 2.8 per cent each year – about the trend growth rate since 1948.
And even more disappointed taking into account this analysis from the Bertelsmann Foundation:
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/Policy-Brief-Binnenmarkt-en_NW_02_2014.pdf
which agreed with Barnier’s figure for the value of the EU Single Market averaged across the member states, but estimated that the value to the UK was only half that average, about 1% of GDP – and even that would be the gross benefit, before the high costs of the Single Market were taken into account.
Interestingly the failure to take into account that the economic benefit to the UK was less than the average across the EU has been highlighted in recent critiques of the Treasury models:
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-dam-is-breaking-another-study-heavily-criticises-the-treasurys-modelling-of-brexit/
“One of the key flaws in the Treasuryâs modelling which Gudgin et al. identified was that the Treasury estimated the costs of Brexit for the UK by estimating the average impact EU membership had on trade across all EU members. But the UK is not like other EU member states. It has a much lower share of trade with other EU countries than the average and this share has been behaving very differently to that of the average EU member state in recent decades (falling, rather than rising). Using an average EU effect thus introduced a major upward bias into the Treasury estimates of Brexit costs. Semken and Hay make the same point and find that removing this bias alone more than halves the estimated impact of Brexit on UK trade. Gudgin et al also showed that the Treasury had been aware of this important point years earlier but conveniently ignored it in their work on Brexit.”
I have commented previously that assessments from foreign, mainly German, research institutions almost invariably came up with much lower estimates of the economic impact of Brexit than those invented by the UK government as part of George Osborne’s “Project Fear”, for example this 2017 study from ifo:
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-even-worst-case-brexit-will-be-bearable-for-eu/
“… with a comprehensive free trade deal between the EU and the U.K., the study predicts a long-term output loss … of … 0.6 percent for the U.K. … where the U.K. and the EU … fall back on World Trade Organization rules, the study predicts the U.K. economy would lose 1.7 percent of economic output over the long-term … ”
Note also that according to that German study a free trade deal would be worth only 1.1% of GDP to the UK, comparable to the gain through natural growth of the economy over five average months, and yet for that meagre gain Boris Johnson has allowed the EU to keep economic control over part of the UK.
February 2, 2022
Incidentally I have a short letter in the Belfast News Letter:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/letters/northern-irish-goods-also-fall-under-the-eu-umbrella-its-not-just-gb-imports-3551083
“Northern Irish goods also fall under the EU umbrella â itâs not just GB imports”
“It is to be hoped that Liz Truss will not forget that EU checks on goods coming into Northern Ireland are only one element of the totality of EU checks which must be applied within the province under the existing protocol.
If locally-produced goods are to enjoy unimpeded passage over the land border into the Irish Republic, part of the EU Single Market, then all businesses in the province must continue to operate under the relevant EU laws.
How is that to be enforced, other than by routine EU checks at their production sites? Which itself rather calls into question the Irish government position that there cannot be âany checks or controls anywhere on the islandâ.”
That’s because Theresa May and Boris Johnson both agreed with the Irish government that there was no possible way that goods being exported over land border into the Irish Republic could be checked and controlled without risking a renewal of nationalist violence:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/01/28/smoothing-trade/#comment-1295960
Although it is quite difficult to see the logic of republican terrorists wanting to disrupt processes intended to protect the Republic and the rest of the EU Single Market from unacceptable imports, the dreaded “chlorinated chickens” and the like, and even though Lord Frost later made it clear that this could be done without any processes at the actual border:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/07/13/the-northern-ireland-protocol/#comment-1243376
and the Republic itself will be doing this with imports of solid fuel:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/11/18/the-right-kind-of-greenery-my-article-from-conservative-home/#comment-1277070
“Quite a surprise, then, that the Irish government has now discovered an alternative in the case of solid fuel, where imports from the north will be allowed in over the land border without let or hindrance and will only be checked at sites further into the territory of the Republic, well away from the actual customs border.”
– even though Lord Frost later
February 2, 2022
Gary Megson :
I think your recollection of Mrs. Thatcherâs views on the EU is different to mine.
In 1984 Mrs. Thatcher negotiated a rebate because she knew that we were being fleeced.
At the Bruges speech in 1988 Mrs. Thatcher said :
âWe have not embarked on the business of throwing back the frontiers of state at home only to see a European superstate getting ready to exercise a new dominance from Brussels”.
And in 1990 in the HoC she said :
âThe President of the Commission, Mr. Delors, said at a press conference the other day that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the Community, he wanted the Commission to be the Executive and he wanted the Council of Ministers to be the Senate. No. No. No.â
Mrs. Thatcher, the best PM we ever had since WW2, was removed from office by the Conservative Party Remainers because she refused to agree to the coming Maastricht Treaty. Later in the HoL she said she would never have signed it.
Had the EU Commission not been greedy with Maastricht, the Euro, Eastern expansion and freedom of movement, we would probably still be members today.
February 2, 2022
Gary
What fanatics
Voters brought down Major at a general election.
Cameron ran off after people voted to leave the EU
Teresa May called a snap election and failed to get a majority from voters.
Are we fanatics for voting the way we did or for not voting like you?
February 2, 2022
The news distressed me. The bluster won’t save hundreds of decent councillors their seats in May.
February 2, 2022
The contempt at which he is held by other MP’s is noticeable. But he knows that some 100 Secretary’s of State / Ministers owe their jobs to him, plus an awful lot of other marginal MP’s. And with no one able to win election like he can, he can sit tight knowing he cannot be gotten rid of.
February 2, 2022
If much of the extra generation capacity is wind and solar the shortfall will be even worse on windless winter days and nights.
February 2, 2022
Quite, it is time to vote for Count Binface or spoil the paper.
Take their legitimacy away, if no one votes for them the political environment must change.
February 2, 2022
There is a fourth possibility:-
Promise the earth to suit global elites who may be useful to you in future.
Voters donât count once you are elected.
In the long term, when it really starts to impact you will have moved on to greater things outside UK politics.
February 3, 2022
Reply to Peter.
Yes I think you are right. Though it is possible that B.J. himself does not fully realise how his strings are being pulled. (Mainly by his wife?)
But as someone else has pointed out today the other big Parties are worse.
February 2, 2022
There was a time when politicians reflected the views of the peopleâŠ.now itâs the people who have to be socially & taxed engineered to reflect the views of the politicians
Governments need to stop intervening and forcing everyone to being âgreenâ
February 2, 2022
Very good point. Remember they are our servants and we are their master. We are many. They are few.
February 2, 2022
sadly I find myself agreeing. It is increasingly evident the Conservative party is knee deep in sycophant sheep. I conclude the downward pressure to propose gullible box-tickers as candidates onto the constituency faithfuls from Central Office has not been resisted.
The party is facing death by a thousand cuts, or more accurately the majority of the 360ish ought to be considering life after Parliament.
February 2, 2022
Well said Peter, Sir John, the Blob have clearly appropriated the agenda/strategies (EU clone) and forecasts that Boris (aka Carrie) and BEIS/Cabinet are all comfortable with in setting out UK Net Zero tranformation plans. Your delightfully skeptical post is correct, no sane person would accept these forecasts!
As a heat pump (ground source) early adopter I conclude it’s only workable in a HIGHLY insulated property, but the 12,000 KWH/pa needed (incl lights/cooking) means I am severely exposed to price cap increases…. I am expecting ~50% increase to >30p/KWH in April, but all is well as this morning my Tory MP has reassured me OFGEM/BEIS are working on a solution! đ
To get back to the basics of controlling UK energy and prices, I share your view we DO need self sufficiency in intermediate oil/gas, so we are not at the mercy of the Spot Market and EU/Russia Nordstream Merkel legacy cock-up.
Then we need base load on-demand nuclear and storage to support electrickey load when it dark and not windy. This will take 10 years. Currently our energy strategy is wrong and underestimates future demand, which to me looks like Maladministration… mind you 30p/KWH will curtail demand drastically… when Greece upped the price of heating oil to the same taxation level as diesel, all one could hear in the winter was chain-saws cutting up logs for heating in logburners, which is the route I will need to go down rather than use my ridiculously expensive heat pump next winter…. so perhaps the BEIS forecasts are right, if they’ve assumed massive increase in prices …. which curtail demand…..
February 3, 2022
Peter Wood – you must be pleased that as JR has not disagreed with you he agrees with your assessment.
reply If I do not comment it tells you nothing about my view. I publish many views I disagree with.
February 2, 2022
Sensible people will not, in the main, be investing in very expensive & short lived electric cars or heat pumps they will be retaining their old cars and wood burners, gas or oil boilers and perhaps more warm clothes and electric blankets. At least not until they are forced to do so by governments idiotic laws, red tape, taxes or market rigging.
Even if one accepts the Carbon Dioxide devil gas & imminent climate emergency religion (actually plant, crop and tree food) EVs do not save any CO2 (after manufacture and charging is accounted for) and heat pumps do not either unless they are powered by very low carbon electricity and they clearly will not be in general. We have no zero carbon sources of electricity at all. Electricity is also far more expensive than gas so although heat pumps give out more heat than the energy they consume they are not overall cheaper to run. Very expensive to fit and to maintain too. Also slow to heat up so often they need to be left on when away thus wasting more heat and fuel.
February 2, 2022
From the Telegraph – âA plan devised by Lord Frost, the UKâs former Brexit negotiator, to cut two retained EU regulations for every rule written was dropped.
It was said not to fit in with Mr Johnsonâs ambitions to cut Britainâs carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, which some backbenchers claim will stifle innovation and increase the cost of living.
Critics said that the decision showed a lack of confidence in using the freedoms secured after Brexit and was a victory for the civil service âblobâ said to be in control of Downing Street.â
Can we have Boris & Carrie replaced by Lord Frost or similar please. What do they mean by âsome backbenchers claim will innovation and increase the cost of livingâ it obviously will do so hugely, at vast expense & for zero real benefit.
February 2, 2022
LL. Agree with all your comments this morning. Lord Frost, a very sound man. Yes, make him PM.
February 2, 2022
Those who worked hard to save him from âPartygateâ must feel thoroughly sickened.
And do you know, over that,I almost felt sorry for him!
February 2, 2022
No I do not think we will. If true I am afraid this raises a further major question as to what the point of brexit was. I think we may end up with a Norway type arrangement under either a Labour govt or a ‘one nation’ Tory replacement for Boris. All the coherent theoretical arguments against that model put forward by Sir John and others will count for little as people will just ask ‘well what have you actually done with clean Brexit?’
February 2, 2022
I believe the abandonment of Lord Frost’s ‘plan’ means, in effect, that my prediction that this government would eventually abandon economic growth as a priority has, in effect, come true. Prepare for an interview with Mr Sunak (he won’t go near GB news again) where he says ‘economic growth has to be seen in the wider context of government commitments’, in other words Net Zero trumps everything.
February 2, 2022
Ben Habib, Chairman of Brexit Watch, said on the J H-B show on Talk Radio this morning that Johnson/Lord Frost’s Trade and Cooperation Treaty with the EU commits the UK to align with the EU to create a level playing field on the following:
State Aid
Employment Law
Competition Law
Environmental Law ….. including a commitment to climate neutrality by 2050
(P179 of the Treaty).
That’s why we are not deregulating. It’s also why Johnson is pushing the Net Zero lunacy, regardless of the fact it is completely unaffordable for most British households.
Delivered Brexit? Another example of Johnson’s economy with the actualite.
February 2, 2022
I’ve been shouting about the ‘level playing field’ clause in the TCA since Boris signed it….with the support of the majority of Tory MPs
February 2, 2022
+1
Whatever are the Remoaners moaning about?
EU partnership/whatever sails ahead smoothly.
February 3, 2022
EH, ask the drivers of those trucks queuing for miles on the A20, and with reams of paperwork to do.
Better still, ask the makers of the produce that they are trying to get to their customers.
February 3, 2022
Agreed lifelogic.
If only I could vote for Lord Frost as Prime Minister!
February 3, 2022
That’ll be “democratic deficit”, then, Pauline.
February 2, 2022
The help for fertiliser production has ceased so now we have to import fertand the CO2 byproduct
We are being led down a blind alley where we can be blackmailed by any foreign government that wishes.
This reliance on imports has to be reversed before we are bankrupt.
February 2, 2022
What concerns me is how all these âgoodâ ideas are joined together to create a disaster.
EV vehicles are very quiet. Add to that the rights for cyclists and pedestrians in the new highway code and it will cause many accidents.
Heat pumps a great idea, but proportionately larger radiators will take out wall space for furniture. And, on most new estates cramming in as many houses as possible, means the heat pumps fight will each other for the energy. Does net zero housing mean you donât open the windows.
What is needed is joined up government.
Over ÂŁ13bn wasted on bounce back loan fraud and PPE failures. How about scrapping the NI increase and taxing the government together with the civil service to cover this failure of governance.
Why should the taxpayer fund this incompetence?
February 2, 2022
OP – On the subject of “heat Pumps” we recently replaced our 20+ year old tumble drier with a heat pump type…
The good news is that it works well and uses a fraction of the electrical power of the old one…
The bad news is that it’s much more complicated mechanically and electronically so I will be surprised if it will last 20 years. And no one mentions re-gassing these devices (it’s an air-conditioner in reverse) and certainly will need to be done well before its 20th birthday đ
February 2, 2022
âHeat pumps a great ideaâ well they can be just about OK in well insulated and designed new build. You might get ~ 2.5 – 3 times as much heat as the electricity you put in but electricity cost about three times more! Expensive to install and maintain though and not good for say holiday homes where the place is often empty. This as slow to heat up so you often have to keep the heat most of the time on which is wasteful.
February 2, 2022
If governments can so easily ban our traditional form of transport and heating, and if the people capitulate and let it happen âŠgovernments will just ban something else
Theyâre no longer of the people for the peopleâŠtheyâre the enemy
February 2, 2022
Seems so.
This while taking taxes (partial slavery in effect) to absurd levels too.
February 2, 2022
In order to demonstrate the Government’s empathy with otherly-abled humans, and to prevent undue soil erosion, it has been decided that all humans must walk on one leg only in public places.
No artificial walking aids will be permitted, as these may contribute to water pollution and excess CO2 in their manufacture.
Cyclists who are reported to have complained that it makes riding difficult may well be investigated for ‘hate’ thought crimes (by the Metropolitan police at least). Similarly, pregnant women and all those with hip and knee replacements will have to apply for State exemption permits valid for 6mths at a time, and will be required to carry these at all times so they can be checked.
(//sarc – ?)
February 2, 2022
But this, in Stasiland, is real: “The Prime Minster was seen heading up to his flat…”
February 2, 2022
and you think you are joking??
We’ve been bedevilled by madness many thought they’d never live to see, or at one time seemed like a joke or bit of sarcasm. Soon to be outlawed as well no doubt, as our sense of humour and the ridiculous can be viewed as offensive and may trigger sections of the ‘communiteh’
February 2, 2022
You are, I think, confusing the problems that employees get from their employers – for voicing their opinions – with the law.
The two are entirely different.
Employers may sack an employee for publishing an opinion, in their own time, on matters nothing to do with their work, but which their employer thinks that any possible client or customer might dislike.
That is solely because Tory UK employment law gives employers far too much arbitrary power over employees – but then you voted for that repeatedly.
February 2, 2022
and you think a different party would change that? REALLY?
February 2, 2022
Yes.
February 2, 2022
I’m puzzled how an employee who writes on a topic completely different to his job or the company he works for could fall under laws NHL refers to.
How would it impact the reputation of the business or impact their clients or customers enough to result in grounds for dismissal under gross misconduct.?
Or more crucially how would they be identified in the first place?
February 2, 2022
Martin living in blissful ignorance. However, you might be living the dream and watching your preference draw up these dozens of Bills aiming to right your perceived wrongs , in order to align better with China, N.Korea, Malta, Canada, Norway, Sweden.
Also preparing to plead with protege of Merkel and Macron to please let us back in. We will promise to be no threat and swallow our medicine without a hint of gagging on it.
February 2, 2022
+1
It really would not surprise me one bit!
February 2, 2022
Shouldn’t cyclists be required to ride monocycles to reduce surface wear and tear and polution from tyre wear?
February 2, 2022
Back to wooden wheels is the answer.
February 2, 2022
Good morning.
A statement of the bleeding obvious.
I posted recently here concerning the governments projected energy demands for the next decade. The figures quoted when put on an a graph showed demand rising exponatially. Clearly demand is going to far exceed supply. If we here can see this, why are those who have the power to make important decision to advert a serious crisis not acting ?
This is the problem – It is what government ‘wants’ and not the consumer / market.
This is what makes the whole thing such utter bonkers ! I am surprised more people cannot see and, see where all of this madness is heading. We are certainly going to be, ‘levelled down up’ by this.
Such as portable generators.
Ukraine and Partygate and the climate are NOT the major issues of the day. Energy supply, MASS IMMIGRATION, food and NI are ! If Tory MP’s cannot, or will not see this, then they do not deserve to be around after 2024 and can join Alexander Johnson MP in retirement.
February 2, 2022
+1 Mark B.
February 2, 2022
Like you, Mark, I often wondered why Tory MPs didn’t more often question the government narrative on the energy scam. After all, what our good host points out again and again should be clear enough to anyone who wants to look at the facts, and the consequences of net zero for ordinary people.
That was until I came across this website and discovered what I’d overlooked:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ministerial-appointments-september-2021
Over 100 Tory MPs have been appointed to government jobs such as ‘under-secretary of state’ for this or that. Their loyalty is now not to their constituents’ interests but to the government that hired them. And no doubt many of the others are angling to get one of these appointments next time one comes up. So why would they spoil their chances by questioning government policy?
February 2, 2022
The Conservative Party under Cameron, May and now Johnson has ensured that prospective MPs entering the Commons are reliable followers of the UN green agendas, which is now being played out in the Western countries. Any leader that goes against these ‘rules’, such as Trump, is got rid of.
The low forecast of electricity generation over the next nine years is a recognition of the fact that the steps taken so far will reduce the total low CO2 output, as nuclear is reduced. No new gas generation is possible when wind and solar are prioritised. The latest taller offshore wind turbines are assumed to generate at 50% capacity instead of the 35% at present. This, even if achieved in practice will require equivalent gas and nuclear backup. But nuclear is not switch ‘onandoffable’. In other words, it’s pie in the sky.
And, by the way, the Climate Change Committee, lead by the Greencrap whizz J.Gummer and academics, estimated a tripling of generation by 2050 to 150GW, most of it by wind turbines in the deep sea, which will have to be renewed every 20 years or less. The MPs don’t have a clue.
February 2, 2022
+1
February 2, 2022
Stred : âAnd, by the way, the Climate Change Committee, lead by the Greencrap whizz J.Gummer and academics, estimated a tripling of generation by 2050 to 150GW, most of it by wind turbines in the deep sea, which will have to be renewed every 20 years or less. The MPs donât have a clue.â
150GW is 25% less than our current total energy requirement and does not take into account the increase in population by 10m through immigration by 20250, nor the extra energy required to remove CO2 from the atmosphere to cover the CO2 emitted by our imports.
Furthermore this 150GW of dispatchable power will require 600GW of installed windmill power in order to provide the necessary hydrogen for grid stability and backup.
February 2, 2022
+1
February 2, 2022
Funny enough I alluded to this in reply to another contributor.
We need to seperate the Executive from the Legislature.
February 2, 2022
Surely it’s quite simple, our CO2 will be reduced by the imports and we will be protected from the imbalance of the rest of the world by some sort of magic barrier hovering over these Islands.
February 2, 2022
Michelle
Ah yes, I remember a similar policy when a certain Mayor Livingstone created London as a nuclear free Zone !
Now we have another Mayor who thinks he can change the air, not by banning cars, buses, lorries, coaches etc, but by charging the occupants.
So we now have a Pollute if you can afford it policy !
February 2, 2022
The Civil Engineering Dept at Imperial College have researched the reduction of pollution following the introduction of ULEZ and found very small reductions for NO2 and none for particulates and ozone. They advise that other ULEZ zones should not expect a reduction in pollution unless other measures are taken. In other words it is a waste of money and cleaning up public transport and taxis did more good.
February 2, 2022
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/231894/london-pollution-improved-with-evidence-small/
February 2, 2022
âAn electric revolution needs electricity – A statement of the bleeding obvious.â – not alas obvious to this government it seems. They even seem to think very expensive, intermittent & unreliable energy (only when the wind blows or the sun shines) will do.
February 2, 2022
Not to mention only when the power lines are up and running, which increasingly they seem to be subject to being blown down by high winds and weather and the eco zealots claim these events are to become more severe. If that’s the case we are all at risk except for the posh areas where the cables are underground.
February 2, 2022
Energy will be rationed unless you are one of the so called elites, managed via smart meters. Car ownership will be a thing of the past for the majority leaving empty roads for the elites to drive on. Foreign travel likewise will go.
It’s like a return to the 1970s but without the green spaces.
February 2, 2022
With fast growth of EVs, reduction in availability of the rare earth materials, or at an unaffordable price, then political shift will be to insist they are connected to the domestic power plug whenever ‘at home’.
This will ensure the new ‘mobile national battery’ will be charged at low demand times, but will give up charge at high demand. Statistics will be used (analytics if you prefer) to determine those who have no real need of the charge and will automatically surrender it, and those who would be expected to use it. A balancing act, like it or lump it, but certain to mean much more frequent charge/discharge and reduced life of the battery.
Again analytics will determine what the car/home owner pays for this overnight cooperation with the Grid.
February 2, 2022
+1
February 2, 2022
”This is the problem â It is what government âwantsâ and not the consumer / market.”
SPOT ON Mark B.
The very crux of the issue…this has become a battle between Tory & Marxism
February 2, 2022
A Government is not this contradictory by accident.
February 2, 2022
+1
Exactly !!!
February 2, 2022
So what on earth is their mad agenda? It is very clearly economic and political suicide – scientifically illiterate too.
February 2, 2022
Our destruction – and sooner than we might think.
February 2, 2022
Correct. They are taxing and regulating private car ownership out of existence unless you are wealthy enough to pay the exorbitant bills. They are expecting everyone to work from home, removing the need for your private car. Your food will be delivered by Amazon (and the like) to your rabbit hutch style flat. Your censored entertainment will be streamed, Big Brother style, to your personal rabbit hutch. In this Orwellian world electricity usage will be reduced and political control assured by preventing mass gatherings that might otherwise protest at these restrictions on freedom on movement and dissent.
February 2, 2022
Seems to be heading that way.
February 2, 2022
agreed – incompetence is most likely.
February 2, 2022
‘The government’s forecasts for electricity generation in the UK are curious’. Sir John, the master of understatement! Of course there will not be enough electricity generated, they do not have enough intelligence to look at the evidence. Calofornia, S Australia, super expensive energy and unreliable.
Most people, me included, will stick with ICE vehicles until they are unavailable but by then I am certain that the whole sorry mess will have become blindingly obvious to the people of this country and they will understand how they have been lied to for many years by our deceitful politicians and none of their grandiose idea of electrification will ever work on a national or international scale. Fools, utter fools, most especially for taking us for fools.
February 2, 2022
Your party’s capture by the Left is destroying our country and today’s article is just another tired attempt to tip toe around an issue without infracting upon or detracting away from the party line.
You’re more left than Starmer and I for one find that disturbing
February 2, 2022
The low forecasts for electricity consumption reflect the government’s levelling down agenda. Obviously it is not called that, it is called Net Zero to make it sound virtuous and all that. Meanwhile we are asked to accept that the government has a Levelling Up agenda for the more deprived. From what is announced it will not succeed. If people want to be better off they will do what they have always done, follow the money and migrate to London in search of better jobs. Government thinks it knows better by promoting home working. This will not work any more than redirection of industry worked in the 1950s/1960s. In short the forecasts reflect Orwellian thinking that everyone can be put in a box and kept there to promote the insane Net Zero agenda. The nudge unit has a big job on its hands. They will need a sledgehammer to turn your where you live into your personal concentration camp.
February 2, 2022
+1
February 2, 2022
I doubt Boris will even be an MP after the next election and the Net Zero lunacy will be quietly dropped. Unfortunately the damage to our country will already have been done. There are malign forces at work to destroy Western countries. This plan has been in play for decades and is now coming to fruition. We see the same policies in Canada, Australia, USA, New Zealand. This cannot be a coincidence.
I have no intention of getting an EV or a heat pump. I will however sell up my businesses in the UK and move abroad if things get much worse. I’m getting sick of all the restrictions, high taxes and being bossed about by incompetent politicians who don’t follow the rules they set for the rest of us.
I want freedom, free speech and less Government.
February 2, 2022
+1
February 2, 2022
Net Zero was not a Johnson invention, he just ran with it, possibly urged on by a housemate. Theresa May bought into it, David Cameron did not rescind the Climate Change Act.
They are all in on it and we can not vote for an alternative. Best to vote none of the above to register our distaste and to ensure they have no mandate.
February 3, 2022
Johnson endorsed the proposition of London’s ULEZ and promoted the idea.
He also proposed an amnesty for clandestine immigrants.
He was not with his current companion then.
February 2, 2022
I want the same, Christine, but as things are I see only one route to get there: I have to vote Reform UK at every opportunity I get, including the upcoming council elections. That message and nothing else is the only thing that will begin to make the governing majority start to think about the consequences of their actions. The consequences for them. Consequences for us don’t matter, of course, as we saw with lockdowns and partygate.
February 2, 2022
I was going to write along the same line, so thank you Christine for saving me the trouble.
A big no to EVs and Heat Pumps.
Sir John – the occupant of the Prime Minister’s job has just had a chance to mend his ways, and align his actions to the manifesto he was elected on. He has been told this by numerous high ranking Conservatives. He has failed to do so. He has ignored the advice and continues to make life much worse for the people of the United Kingdom. When is he going to get his marching orders, and how are you going to replace him with a competent Prime Minister who realizes he is there to serve the people?
February 3, 2022
Shouldn’t the choice of PM really be a matter for the electorate in a proper democracy?
February 3, 2022
OK if you call that person Mr President
February 4, 2022
Stop moaning then.
February 7, 2022
P2, why not, I might be quite happy with my CUP MP and hate the mess currently brought to us by this PM.
So following your views I will always be condemned to have any nincompoop as head of state even when in power they show themselves incompetent. Are you absolutely sure that having the PM in practice sorted out by around 300-400 CUP MPs then chosen by at most 150k CUP members is the best that the UK democracy can do?
May I say you have a very strange notion of democracy.
February 2, 2022
Oh … I was looking for the Party……sorry wrong address obviously
February 2, 2022
Mmmmm …… net zero madness being pursued to our detriment and you would rather worry about whether some people who were all in close proximity to each other, were not vulnerable and knew that the illness was mostly mild continued to be in close proximity to each other.
I am more angry with the masses who were cowed into submission and didn’t have parties.
February 2, 2022
I doubt the supermarket or off licence will take the bottle back!
February 2, 2022
I’ll comment on the issue later – but this is the government that caused a staff exodus out of care-homes and was about to do the same in the NHS. Basically, it just doesn’t think things through, habitually missing the identification of ‘dis-benefits’. I’d hazard a guess that too much policy formulation is being done in ministers’ Spad-full outer offices and too little by civil servants in the policy sections.
February 2, 2022
The “mandatory jabs” policy for care workers and NHS personnel was probably dreamt up by one of the integrity-free PsyOps Agents or the kidult Aides in Downing St.
Since they have had pampered lives and have no personal integrity whatsoever, they didn’t realise that the kind of people who work in care homes are mentally very tough and have personal integrity by the bucket-load. As do many NHS personnel.
It must have come as quite a shock when they discovered that 40,000 had left the care sector and they were about to lose 100,000+ NHS staff.
February 2, 2022
Thats a lot of people that feel benefits will allow them to meet their bills.
Good luck with that!
February 2, 2022
Quite, policy units seem to focus on a single issue, not the consequences of their actions.
Real world experience must trump qualifications and connections
February 2, 2022
Swap coal and oil for lithium and cobalt?
Unspoken-of slavery in DRC paid for by cancelling the history of the West.
Toxic lithium mining.
So evil people can lie and virtue signal?
Fire hazard batteries piled up waiting to ignite with the outright lie of recycling.
What madness, greed, evil is this?
What filthy slime slithers on its belly to bring this about?
February 2, 2022
+1 and shame on the media and governments
February 2, 2022
+1
Indeed
February 2, 2022
do you need any help with answering the last question?
February 2, 2022
+1
Well..we could compare notes!
February 3, 2022
probably proving mind reading works?
February 2, 2022
If every politician in all the parliaments just not Westminster got off of their fannies and spent a week walking the talk with the electorate, talking to plumbing suppliers and central heating installers they would get a very good picture of what is going on. It is not rocket science just like with immigration go and talk to the sewer treatment companies on any rises in the volume of treatment.
All I can talk about is every heating engineer and plumber who works in that arena are changing boilers updating systems as their clients are changing really old appliances for new high efficiency units which properly maintained will last 15-20 years easily which will enable them to replace the boiler for another one in 2042 onwards for a similar fuelled appliance to get them through the next twenty years which by then many clients will not be here or too old to worry about this nonsense.
It’s the same with transport customers are holding onto their nearly new car rather than go electric. There will be an almighty rush for new petrol diesel vehicles in 6-7 years time as they will still be being manufactured for export which will give the drivers more time to delay going all electric. The poorer in society will have a large choice on the secondhand market to get them through the deadline which are being forced through by incompetent and ignorant politicians who do not have a clue about any of this nonsense, just sheep following the one in front.
You could turn this country on its head if you threw out all this saving the world crap and let market forces dictate what to manufacture and use and government slashed its habit of wasting our money.
February 2, 2022
turboterrier
Indeed I have said the same many times over.
Remember the Government also wants to build 300,000 new houses each year as well, I guess some to be used by another 2,000,000 immigrants due to arrive in the next 10 years, so more power and services of all kinds being used, more farmland covered in concrete.
More people, more Co2 generated, and so it goes on.
We will not be replacing our efficient gas boiler with electric simply because it would be too expensive to install and run.
We will be hanging on to our present diesel/petrol transport, because what is available at the moment does not yet suit our needs.
We do change our light bulbs to the much more expensive LED when they fail, but I have noticed that many LED bulbs do not last anywhere near to the 25,000 hours life that is claimed, and yes they have been manufactured by well known companies.
February 2, 2022
We now seem to have a complete disconnect between Government, reality, and the people, and it is also the same with all of the present opposition party’s.
I often wonder if there some sort of virus in Parliament which infects many of those who attend, if so then perhaps they could get a regular jab of reality by engaging with the people (like our kind host) to help make their own thought system somewhat immune to crazy ideas.
I see another visit abroad by our Prime Minister has lead to more expenditure of our money.
Why is it that every time our Prime Ministers go abroad, and it has been the same for every single one since Thatcher, it costs us ÂŁmillions.
February 2, 2022
Turboterrier, I agree but you’re talking like a populist Conservative. Someone like you (or me) would not be allowed anywhere near government policy. Except perhaps at election time, when writing the PR messages and slogans.
February 2, 2022
+10 (although I think you mean put the UK back on its feet)
February 2, 2022
Three possible options for why projected electricity usage is lower than one would expect⊠I think one more option could be added to that.
Could it be that there is an expectation that most people wonât be able to afford a car, and many wonât be able to afford central heating , but just a small plug in heater in one room only? I know this sounds absurd, but I do remember after the EU referendum, remainers suggesting that once all the old leaver voters had died off, they could have another vote and this time the vote would go the right way.
The fact it was even thought, never mind voiced is quite shocking, so is my idea beyond the realms of possibility?
Letâs face it, weâve been subjected to some absurd and disproportionate restrictions in the past nearly two yearsâŠ
February 2, 2022
Sharon
It’s the circle of life. All these youngsters wanting to see us gone will be the ones that replace us.
What you wanted in your 20s does not relate to what you want in your 50s&60s if they are lucky enough to make it that far. The changes of life take their toll.
Marriage,divorce, kids, work, health what the youngster cannot see or ever have is our life experiences that make us hopefully better people. As Oscar Wilde said. Youth is wasted on the young. So true.
February 2, 2022
When we first moved here, the place was thriving with young execs vying for the latest reg car.
The place was buzzing with jobs and jobs up in the City. Money making and whizzy social lives.
The shops were bright and lovely, full of high-end goods.
Yet there was still plenty of countryside and space.
Now the whole area is wrecked. None of the above remains. Many Mad Max Motors.
People have been made poorer and this pretend green revolution will finish them off.
The intention is probably thatâŠ.
Literally we will own nothing âŠand we will be dispossessed and distraught.
February 2, 2022
Madeline Grant today is surely right in the Telegraph. I heard and saw quite a few repulsive statements when Lady Thatcher died, so were these all crimes too?
âInsulting Captain Tom should not be a crime
Convicting somebody for an offensive tweet about the fundraising hero is a dire parable for our timesâ
February 2, 2022
Lifelogic,
Agreed but thatâs what happens when you have a Thought Police.
February 2, 2022
+1
Not to mention using child-slave-labour-dependent mobile devices to take photos of the Colston statue destruction.
Being destroyed because of links to ancient slavery.
What the Left did when Mrs T died was shameful beyondâŠand no one batted an eyelid. Or even realised the danger it represented.
February 2, 2022
My Flat is wholly dependant on electricity.So is my place of work.
I walk through town and am aware of traffic fumes.Some cars temporarily parked up have their engines running.
The future is elecrical.
Previous governments have been asleep at the wheel.
This government and future ones must get far more serious on electrical generation.Wind farms are not sufficient.
February 2, 2022
When will someone stop this madness – it is often said that when these type of reports are published that there is incompetence rather than malice at the heart of government but the fact that these questions are not being openly asked does make me wonder how many ministers, backbenchers, opposition MPs and civil servants, not to mention the media are turning a blind eye to malfeasance.
We already only produce 1% of the World’s carbon (if carbon is indeed a bad thing, personally I would concentrate on pollution) so how is us offshoring ever greater production at huge cost helping?
February 2, 2022
I live in a small, old west country town now. In the old town (ie not the new housing estates built on the periphery over the past 20 years) I estimate 70% of the houses have no private parking facility. Cars are parked on the streets and not necessarily outside their own house. Public charging points are few and far between. Electric cars are rare as hens’ teeth here and I predict they will remain rare because they are impractical for most people. I certainly won’t be wasting my money on one; I shall replace my small petrol car in 2029 with another one and keep it as long as possible.
Most ordinary people won’t be able to afford an electric car or they will be completely impractical. But that is the point; the intention is to reduce private car ownership and make people use public transport, cycle or walk and hire a car when they need to make a longer journey.
I also do not intend changing my efficient gas central heating system for an inefficient electric one which will cost ÂŁtens of thousands to install.
The Climate Change Agenda is a scam run by the UN and the WEF, and it is these organisations’ Agenda this appalling Government is following. It will transfer wealth from western taxpayers to 3rd world countries and from “the little people” to the Globalists.
February 2, 2022
I passed the gargantuan cement works that is to provide for HS2. How much better to have spent this money on reservoirs and power stations – no. We get fifteen minutes shaved off a trip from London to Brum instead… for those who can afford the ticket price.
This is a class war and for all the rhetoric Boris is waging it against the British proletariat. Why ? Under whose instructions ?
Is there no let up for a nation that has spent so much time in lockdown and that is suffering so much inflation that consumption has gone down way beyond expectations ? Can this not be used to delay green measures a bit ?
February 2, 2022
You do know that the manufacture of cement produces more co2 than motorcars
We should cancel HS2
February 2, 2022
One really wonders what the government’s game is. Do they have a “cunning plan” for some unfathomable reason to impoverish the ordinary citizen – left without private transport, home heating or anything but a service industry job? Surely, surely they can’t be doing this through sheer incompetence?
Any ideas on their endgame? Distract us from other issues by creating new problems? Something anti-Brexit? The Great Reset? What’s going on? Most politicians don’t think beyond the next election.
February 2, 2022
Iâve puzzled all of that for several years and drawn no firm conclusions except that they have ruined everything.
Unforgivable.
February 2, 2022
The ‘cunning plan’ is to create confusion….see The Big Society, Build Back Better and Levelling-Up
February 2, 2022
Why on earth does Michael Gove want more devolution? More Andy Burnhams? He should be rolling it back. Bristol is leading the way in having a referendum on whether to keep its Mayor.
February 2, 2022
He stopped English Votes for English laws too rose. So that on devolved issues only English MPs got to vote on them because they’d abrogated responsibility to MSPs and the Welsh/N Ireland equivalent.
February 2, 2022
These targets – 2030 new petrol car ban, 2035 new gas boiler ban – are like mandatory vaccinations for healthcare staff, they are just nudge unit psychological manipulation to try to promote the uptake of new technologies or vaccinations – when the time comes the targets will be abandoned, there is no real intention to meet them.
Based on Friends of the Earth estimates – so hardly likely to be over-estimates – a switch to electric cars will require 10% more electric generation capacity. Add in the heat pump demand and it’s clear UK has no chance at all of meeting the new demand within the required timeframe. So, everyone just sit back, don’t buy an electric car or heat pump, in due course the government of the day (not the current one) will abandon the target dates.
February 2, 2022
Like you I am concerned about the lack of generating capacity. I am replacing my gas boiler and keeping my internal combustion engine car. I intend to keep on cooking with gas and to maintain my wood burning stove.
We struggle to keep the lights on as it is. If everyone acts as suggested by the government the lights will go out. When the lights go out everything will stop working – including my gas boiler, which needs electricity to fire it up. Our computers will all stop and the so-called internet of things will grind to a halt. Banks will cease to function. The only upside is that President Xi will no longer be able to spy on us all via the multiplicity of Chinese made chips that control everything.
February 2, 2022
How many electrical installation courses have the government opened up to train people to install charging points all over the UK, especially difficult in awkward parking situations where the parking isn’t always right next to a building? If the training courses aren’t opened up and quickly then no-one will be able to afford the charging points required to recharge at night to not overwhelm the electric requirements in the day time. Is there going to be an economy nighttime rate to encourage night recharging? Can some of this excess wind power be used for this purpose instead of giving it away free?
February 2, 2022
a-tracy : âIs there going to be an economy nighttime rate to encourage night recharging? Can some of this excess wind power be used for this purpose instead of giving it away free?â
Yes, the Government has planned for ev night time charging in order to prevent everyone charging at peak hours. In fact they have planned for âbidirectional chargingâ meaning they could also discharge your ev battery in the night if they need the electricity (Net Zero Strategy P100) to balance the grid and hopefully recharge the battery back again by the morning. If not you may have less energy in the battery in the morning than when you went to bed. Even then your battery will have been degraded by the discharge/recharge cycle.
February 3, 2022
Well, no one will recharge at night then if there is a risk their battery will drain and they can’t get to work the following morning.
February 2, 2022
The PM says he wants energy independence in Ukraine. I suppose it depends on how one defines “independence” but you might remind him we could do with a bit of that here.
February 2, 2022
especially for the down trodden English.
February 2, 2022
Your title is a given. Can we apply some logic to the process. We need reliable fuel to create the electricity to cook and to heat. Surprise surprise we have it, but government and the green cabal in No. 10 does not like it. Result, the companies extracting it double their opportunistic sales to the EU. Government should take control of our asset and pay a production cost plus a sensible profit for it, vastly increase storage capacity, and get fracking our extensive onshore gas resources.
Government should end the considerable green levy on every household and industry. VAT should go on all fuel and all products related to insulating our homes. Windmills should sink or swim minus subsidy.
I want a government of action for the greater good, not of interest groups or lobbyists. If this government can’t supply it then they should hand it to professionals, who as demonstrated with vaccines and their application proved that it can be done on the Beaverbrook principal. So get on with it.
February 2, 2022
When I was preparing to renovate the property I bought 2 years ago, I was keen to have electric heating. Iâve never really liked all the âwater warmed by a boiler being pumped in pipes around the houseâ paraphernalia involved in central heating. The property was built in the 1960s and has cavity walls with blown in insulation added later. There is now a foot of insulation in the loft. It was impractical to insulate the concrete ground floor – but I did add 5mm of specialist insulation below the new timber flooring.
I looked initially at just using the latest convector heaters with some fancy controls. Way too expensive to run.
I looked into an air source heat pump. The cost was high and the surface area of radiators would need to be doubled. It would not heat hot water to a high enough temperature so I would have to have a hot water storage tank and an immersion heater.
I opted for a new, highly efficient combi boiler. It is used to provide central heating and supply hot water on demand. It cost about ÂŁ2500 installed. I will buy a new boiler in 2029 and replace my current boiler when it dies. This should âsee me outâ. Once Iâm out I leave the rest of you to this lunatic asylum.
Currently it costs me about ÂŁ400 a year to keep my home warm and have hot water on demand. If I used electricity to warm my house and water, it would cost ÂŁ2000 a year.
Mr. Redwood, how are you going to convince your colleagues of the impracticality of their current course?
February 2, 2022
Our taxes are going up to pay for the Government’s incompetence over the last two years. Yet Johnson is going to give Ukraine ÂŁ800milion. Why?
February 2, 2022
Is it deliberate policy by the political establishment to get all costings and estimates wrong – It would appear so.
From MoD projects to covid cases, whenever they give us estimates they are either extrapolated beyond reason or fail miserably to live up to reality.
Is this another effect of the workings of the government within, or at the back of, HMG?
February 2, 2022
I read an article on the BBC that said a Chinese electric car selling for only ÂŁ3500 is taking on Tesla. Currently, the cheapest electric is a Skoda at about ÂŁ15,000, people will worry about buying second hand because the battery replacements are almost as much as a new car!
The biggest problem with car-sharing as any hire company will tell you is unreported accident damage and allocating blame and insurance.
February 2, 2022
As to your final question.
I will stick with my diesel engined Qashqai, the perfect vehicle for my needs, until it dies a natural death. At 6000 miles a year, so quite a while yet.
On just about every count electric vehicles make no sense. The first gripes at the cost of charging at roadside pillars are just coming in. Everything else concerning life with an electric vehicle is a no no.
The developement I await is the use of hydrogen either via cells or directly in an ICE. This might persuade me to change. The market will decide.
February 2, 2022
The Marxist plan to electrify everything is not going to happen unless the country is subject to the full Stalinist collectivisation treatment as the government forces people to convert to expensive and sub-optimal evs and heat pumps through either exorbitant pricing or simply by banning ices and switching off the supply of home gas.
BEIS predicts we will require up to 64GW of electricity by 2035. For this to be decarbonised using hydrogen as storage will require 256 GW of installed windmill capacity, up from the 40GW planned for 2030. So either the BEIS Net Zero Strategy that our electricity by 2035 will be decarbonised will not happen or that the electricity produced will be at least 4 times todayâs prices, not even taking into account the extra costs to âbeef upâ the transmission network.
February 2, 2022
Original Richard:- Unless the country is subject to the full Stalinist collectivisation treatment, you say. Indeed, and I don’t see why that won’t happen, as long as the media go along with it. The country mainly accepted being subjected to collectivist lockdowns so as to ‘stay safe’ and protect others. People stayed indoors, lost their income and couldn’t even visit dying relatives. They wore germ-riden rags on their faces, impeding their own breathing, congratulated themselves they weren’t being selfish, and checked that their neighbours weren’t either. So why can’t they next time be coerced into obeying the climate agenda, ‘for the good of the planet’? We’re all be in it together, after all.
February 2, 2022
The reason why the Government/BEIS prefer to import gas rather than producing it ourselves, even though they admit this increases CO2 emissions, is because the whole Net Zero Strategy hinges on windmill energy being cheaper than gas and theyâre hoping we will be forced to pay high prices for the imported gas.
February 2, 2022
Ill thought out policy to appease Boris’ globalist mates which will destroy life as we know (knew?) it. The one thing that is never mentioned is the UN policy for a massive reduction in world population; demand management worthy of the worst despots in history.
February 2, 2022
Whoâs asking for this electric revolution â politicians, the greens, the elites, governments, the UNâŠâŠcertainly not the hard working people of Britain
February 2, 2022
So the alternative in your opinion is fracking.We can then predict that the gas would be sold off to private companies who would then sell it to the highest bidder and more gas would go off shore! Throwing away all our resources again. Nationalisation may not be the most slick but we get to own.
February 2, 2022
I’m happy to nationalise coal, gas and oil….so long as we dig it up and use it
February 2, 2022
Extinction Rebellion perhaps – the university lecturers who push this perhaps?
32m voters in 2019 – 865,697 green voters
City dwellers who have excellent public transport
February 2, 2022
The vote that counts is Carrie (green)
February 3, 2022
glen, I used to think everyone was wrong to accuse Carrie and she couldn’t possibly have the sort of influence on her new husband, but so many bad headlines for Boris caused by her immaturity and lack of political awareness, it seems her little vendetta against Cummings if news stories are to be believed about leaving parties she held during lockdown has rebounded on her too, then the Nanny friend staying over Christmas, it seems it is she that needs a trainer if he stays on.
February 3, 2022
she needs a divorce… and so does he.
February 2, 2022
âIndeed, it wishes to ban new petrol and diesel cars in 2030.â
Is this correct?
Or is it the sale of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned by 2030, with hybrids in 2035?
If the latter you would expect very good sales of ices towards the end of this decade and for people to intend to run their ices for many yearsâŠâŠâŠexcept that the Marxists will put a stop to this by either announcing a short date on when there is a ban on using ices or announcing the doubling of the VED each year on ices.
The same applies to gas boilers which people will prefer to get repaired rather than convert to sub-optimal heat pumps. So the Marxists will either inflate the price of gas or simply switch off the gas altogether.
Net Zero must be achieved comrade!
February 2, 2022
What the dickens has Marx or marxism to do with it?
February 3, 2022
A bit left field, but large sections of the population will be forced to revisit living standards experienced in Dickens’ times. Oh. Joy!
February 3, 2022
NLH :
The Net Zero Strategy is a Marxist plan to destroy the economies, and then the democracies, of Western countries on the pretence that there is a climate crisis.
The Net Zero/climate activists never protest about CO2 emissions in China and Russia.
February 2, 2022
Electric cars are very expensive – even with a tax-payer subsidy of ÂŁ1500. Unless you have a Tesla and access to supercharging they are hopeless for long distances. Even if the battery has the range, recharging times after a long journey are ridiculous. Electric vehicles are very heavy – wasting power – and batteries are toxic.
However, electric cars are wonderful to drive in a city.
So if you live in London, in a detached house (or Edwardian semi with ample parking – about ÂŁ2million or so these days?) you can have an electric car, with easy charging on your private drive, for relaxed short city trips. And space for a petrol vehicle for reliable long journeys. And good rail links too. And you are not pressed for cash. And of course the Milliband’s and Starmer’s and Johnson’s and all the rest live and socialise in such a comfortable world.
But if you don’t live in London or major city, (or you do, and are not wealthy enough for a house with ample private parking ) – you can s*d off.
And that is the message from the eco-crowd,
February 2, 2022
+1
February 2, 2022
Not written by me….
February 2, 2022
I rely wholly now upon electricity for my home (with air source heat pump) so the only material step I could take is replacement of my ad blue, clean diesel vehicle. Such a step is unnecessary for me for the foreseeable future and I am content too to await emergence of better EVs.
February 2, 2022
Should you have been unfortunate enough to have suffered Storm Arwen or similar (the frequency of these is forecast to increase) then you would have been wise to retain access to fossil fuels or face freezing.
February 2, 2022
The Governmentâs unwillingness to be open about these inconsistencies is frankly appalling, taking us for fools and it wonât do. Weâre a (fairly) well-educated country, why do Ministers think we canât see through the energy security shambles?!?
At anything like current prices I canât see myself buying an EV until Iâm absolutely forced to – by legislative force or pricing me off diesel and petrol. I currently use PCP or PCH so never actually own the cars we drive, changing them every three years so the trade-in is the dealersâ problem not mine. 2030 is therefore still 3 more cars away, not giving it any more thought than that, diesel remains my go-to fuel for MPG, petrol for round town, short journeys.
February 2, 2022
There is of course a 4th option Sir John.
…… that the population will be so few that those forecasts are indeed correct and supply will exceed the future demand.
You may also be aware of a story in the Daily Depress that we are now going after all petrol-driven power tools and that lawnmowers are on ze list too! Who’d have thought that cutting the grass in No.43’s postage stamp sized front garden would be such a threat to the world’s climate eh?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1559602/petrol-lawnmower-ban-UK-gardening-news-Challenge-2025-petrol-tools-ban
Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ?
February 2, 2022
Graham, I loved Daily Depress, you should read the Guardian nothing good to say about anything!
February 2, 2022
Power tools are already heading for battery powered.
Soon that ‘push mower’ will be the alternative, and that battery run strimmer will be used to mow the ‘postage stamp’ bit of green.
February 2, 2022
The Government figures only make sense when you realise they don’t know their a#se from their elbow
February 2, 2022
Wise Words
February 2, 2022
If enough people say the same thing it must be true?! Is this why they put the liars at the front of a line and hard boot the honest?
February 3, 2022
Seems to have given a victory for Leave in the referendum, Margaret.
February 2, 2022
I reported on the panic attempt to secure an additional 5.361GW of fitm generating capacity for next winter at some ÂŁ75/kW. I have since looked back to find that at the beginning of 2020 there was a capacity auction which paid jus ÂŁ6.44/kW to secure about 43GW. If they had been prepared to pay ÂŁ25/kW then, they could have secured another 10GW and avoided the panic. Ahead of the auction, industry consultant Timera produced the following chart of the looming capacity deficit in reliable generation.
https://timera-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Capacity-deficit.jpg
They allow for the nuclear and coal closures, and also some ageing gas plants. They value the wind expansion at its firm equivalent basis. The questio seems to be not whether we have plans for sufficient expansion, but rather whether we have sufficient plans to maintain the status quo.
February 2, 2022
Apologies for the inaccurate finger jabbing typos.
February 2, 2022
Mark,
Thanks for your contributions.
February 2, 2022
How thweet
I have a great resevoir of affection for him.
Minister re ex aide. R4 this a.m
Today’s Mail punt for PM
Mr Blink a Lot.
February 2, 2022
It was reported earlier this week that windy days are getting fewer and wind strength is declining due to climate change. 2020 was a very poor year for wind and, furthermore, it was stated that a fall in wind strength of only 10% produces a 30% reduction in power generation from a wind farm. This was reported on the BBC so it must be true !
These are alarming figures and need to be taken into account in the calculations used to predict the amount of renewable energy that can be reliably be obtained from wind.
I would recommend our host asks the Secretary of State whether this is being taken into account.
February 2, 2022
It is said that, when it comes to adopting new technology, people (and businesses, since these are run by people) fall into one of five categories: (i) innovators (2.5%); (ii) early adopters (13.5%); (iii) early majority (34%); (iv) late majority (34%); and (v) laggards (16%). Clearly the percentages are very much rounded estimates, but I think the categorisation makes sense and is useful for predicting the take-up of new technology. I also think people can shift category, depending on the cost of the new technology and the use they would have of it.
When it comes to electric cars, I would say we are now moving from innovastors to early adopters, as the issue of limited range is diminishing (though it definetely still exists). Given the cost, however, and the fact that improvements are being made very rapidly, it doesn’t make sense to me to buy one now and then see much better models appear in a couple of years’ time. That is why, last month, I bought myself a brand new petrol car. I intend to keep this until late in the decade, when I am sure that electric cars will be far better in terms both of performance and value.
If most people think like me then I suspect we will have a slow but increasing take-up of electric cars until around 2027/28 and then sales will boom. The other consideration is *when* these will be charged up. Most people will want to charge them overnight, but of course this will not be easy for those living in flats or without their own drive or garage. Given that the government will want to encourage this night-time charging, in order to even out the demand on electricity, ministers need to force councils to install lamp post chargers on a massive scale. Only by doing this can we avoid a huge increase in daytime electricity demand for which their simply will not be sufficient supply. That, in any case, would be my advive to the government.
February 2, 2022
I see that OFGEM is hastily announcing its new cap tomorrow. I suspect that means that the rumours are correct that it will fail to include measures that would reduce bills, and that ministers have decided to impose maximum net zero pain on consumers. This will not sit well with the public, especially those caught by doubtless inadequate measures to soften the blow.
Net zero. You will be cold. You will be poor. You will be hungry.
But at least industry will close and cancel your job, and you won’t be able to afford to use energy, both helping to solve the capacity problem.
February 2, 2022
Off topic, the same canard that I mentioned here:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/01/31/the-mantle-of-margaret-thatcher/#comment-1296485
as coming from Theresa May:
“… businesses who export to the EU tell us that it is strongly in their interest to have a single set of regulatory standards that mean they can sell into the UK and EU marketsâ
has now come from Philip Rycroft, Permanent Secretary at DExEU from 2017 to 2019:
“… the purpose of the Single Market was to turn 28 sets of regulations into one in order to make trade easier and given the EU is still our largest trading partner, UK manufacturers which trade with the EU have little interest in producing to different standards.”
So that’s about 84% of the world economy that is of little interest to them as potential export markets.
February 2, 2022
Anybody here able to divide ÂŁ60 million (cost of some extra Brexit paperwork) by ÂŁ2000 billion (UK GDP)?
https://www.politico.eu/article/brits-warned-of-food-price-hikes-as-exporters-absorb-60m-brexit-costs/
“Brits warned of food price hikes as exporters absorb ÂŁ60M Brexit costs”
Andy? Gary? Anybody? What is a billion, anyway? Do we know what it means?
And how does it work out that if “the country’s meat exporters pass on millions of pounds in post-Brexit paperwork fees to their customers”, it will be the Brits who pay?
February 3, 2022
No ‘Fact Checkers’ rushing to clarify that one Denis.
February 2, 2022
I wonder if the government ‘stress tests’ the national energy-generating industry in the same way that the Bank of England stress tests our banks. If it doesn’t, it needs to start.
Cold and windless here; I’m putting my GCH on, once I’ve forced a bitcoin into the meter.
February 2, 2022
The 2019 manifesto was for net zero to be reached by 2050.
There was no commitment for our electrical power to be decarbonised by 2035, only to âdeliver ever more electricity at plummeting costs.â
Well, we certainly havenât got the âplummeting costsâ but far more importantly the Government has no mandate to decarbonise by 2035 instead of 2050.
This commitment is a killer when we do not yet have the technology to achieve it by 2035 except at enormous cost and it would make far more sense to wait for the technology to improve before making the final decision as to how to decarbonise by 2050.
Note : It is the Governmentâs âaimâ to build a commercial nuclear fusion plant by 2040 (BEIS Dec 2020 Energy White Paper) which would put an end to all other forms of power generation.
February 2, 2022
Electric fans are no good. They dont heat adequately and they are so noisy they are not possible. Fracking isnt an answer because fracking water cannot be cleaned except in one place in the USA. The southern UK cannot take water away from the water cycle. We cannot spare it. We probably do need new nuclear stations. What we should be doing is wave power. We have lots of waves.
February 2, 2022
Cartimandua : “What we should be doing is wave power. We have lots of waves.”
For waves you need wind.
February 2, 2022
Dear Sir John, I’ve read that in a recent speech Liz Truss said: âWe do face a short-term issue, which is that we have spent significant amounts of money dealing with the Covid crisis that does need to be paid back’.
A HoC Library paper says the Governmentâs package of support for businesses, households and public services ‘is costing around ÂŁ315 billion’.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8866/
I am wondering when Ms Truss expects that level of government debt no longer to be an issue. I don’t suppose she has explained?
February 2, 2022
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60236169
“NI protocol: Irish Sea border checks ordered to end at midnight.”
“That raises the question – if stuff isn’t being checked at the Irish Sea then where is it being checked?”
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/01/28/smoothing-trade/#comment-1295666
“It would be better to minimise the inevitable reputational damage we will suffer from breaking the treaty, and the best way to do that will be to voluntarily and unilaterally address the legitimate concerns of the EU and the Irish government by introducing export controls for the small trickle of goods entering their territory over the land border from Northern Ireland.
It is now six months since paragraphs 43 and 62 of the July Command Paper âNorthern Ireland Protocol: the way forwardâ said:
âWe also stand ready to bring in new legislation to deter anyone in Northern Ireland looking to export to Ireland goods which do not meet EU standards or to evade these enforcement processes.â
âOnce again we are also ready to put in place legislation to provide for penalties for UK traders seeking to place non-compliant goods on the EU market.â
and yet despite standing ready all that time absolutely nothing has been done about it.
Why not, because Boris Johnson never meant it?”
Passing those laws would be the start, then a decision could be taken on the best way to enforce them.
February 2, 2022
Denis Cooper :
Agreed.
February 2, 2022
The voice of ENGINEERING is too muted in this upheaval .
February 2, 2022
returning to the long running issue:
Some 37,000 asylum seekers and Afghan refugees are living in UK hotels at a cost of ÂŁ1.2m per day, MPs were told. The Home secretary said there was a struggle to find permanent homes for thousands of refugees months after they were evacuated from Afghanistan.
Priti Patel told the Home Affairs Committee the current policy was “thoroughly inadequate”.
The Home Office was developing better ways of working with local authorities to find permanent homes, MPs heard. Ms Patel said: “We do not want people in hotels, we are looking at dispersed accommodation.” She said there were efforts under way to use Ministry of Defence buildings for more asylum accommodation.
There are 25,000 asylum seekers currently in hotels and another 12,000 people rescued from Afghanistan.
February 2, 2022
Speechless
February 3, 2022
No mention of our own people sleeping rough.
February 3, 2022
A lot of these hotels would be bankrupt after being virtually closed for the best part of two years due to covid, but how will the holiday market recover in the UK after they’ve got used to a regular income?
We are told we have a problem with farm labourers, there must be accommodation near those farms with work to pay for that accommodation whilst waiting for asylum claims to be processed?
February 3, 2022
Someone in our government will say refugees working is against their european council of human rights
February 2, 2022
Scottish government passed 5 new winds farms today against the wishes of local people. Still no power when no wind.
February 3, 2022
All this has been obvious to ordinary voters for a long time. Electric vehicles won’t work without electricity and charging points. Since Johnson, under his wife’s influence, wants to ban the sale of electric vehicles in eight years’ time, we will have no option but to vote Labour if we want to carry on driving. That is why, as a Conservative, I urge you to get rid of Johnson and replace him with someone who is a Conservative, not a Green.
February 3, 2022
Such utter hypocrisy from Simon Coveney over border checks on goods entering Northern Ireland.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0203/1277508-ni-protocol/
“Surely that’s not too much to ask as we all work to find agreement on flexible and pragmatic implementation of the NI Protocol”
This is from a member of a government which adopted an absurd, extreme and intransigent position over arrangements for the land border, which in fact said it would not tolerate anything that would even imply a border on the island of Ireland, which tried to pretend that there was no border and warned that one must not be allowed to “re-emerge”, which maintained that “any checks or controls anywhere on the island would constitute a hard border” and which simply rejected out of hand several workable suggestions for “flexible and pragmatic” methods to circumvent the mountain that it had deliberately built up out of a molehill on the land border.
Plus, once again he and his various friends and allies seem to forget that the UK is a “dualist” state:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/01/07/brexit-at-the-environment-department/#comment-1289932
âThe UK is a dualist state, which gives domestic legal effect to international treaties only to the extent provided for in Acts of Parliament or other secondary legislation.â