President Biden suffered a major reversal when he left Afghanistan with too much haste and secrecy, failing to inform or win over his allies to his chosen course of action. Afghanistan soon fell to the Taliban once US forces had gone, reversing the hard won gains of many years of strife and loss of life in a few days.
He has been more willing to consult NATO allies over Ukraine, and has warned Mr Putin of serious adverse consequences if he presses ahead with an invasion. The President and the US intelligence and military services have kept the whole world advised of Russian troop and weapon deployments near to Ukraine and have forecast early invasions. They seek to win the information war and to make it more difficult for Russia to seek to occupy Ukraine. President Biden did let slip the view that the retaliation would not be so tough were Mr Putin to make a limited incursion into Ukraine. Although his staff did their best to correct this and he himself changed his words, it looks as if Mr Putin decided the US President meant what he had let slip. So Russia has made a more limited incursion than a direct invasion with massed forces aiming at the capture of Kiev and the toppling of the Ukrainian government by force. The US has led a response based on targeted sanctions against individuals and certain banks, whilst stressing there would be much worse to come for Russia if she plans a bigger military attack.
The USA is still concerned about a further Russian attack using the large firepower Mr Putin has assembled. It is possible that Russia will foment the strife and tensions within the two provinces that she has now recognised as independent, seeking to drag Ukraine into a war in the east. It is is also likely Russia will look at how to destabilise the government of Ukraine, adding political pressures to military challenges created in Donbas. What is clear is the Franco-German initiative to reach a diplomatic peace through creating two self governing provinces within Ukraine is now badly damaged by pre emptive Russian action. What do you think the USA should do next?
Update  Russia has decided to bomb  military installations and provoke a wider internal  war. Putin says he will not invade and occupy Ukraine but clearly plans  to use his military resources to effect regime change and  create  a more submissive Ukraine. His military actions are expanding, inviting Ukrainian retaliation which he might then use to give him the  excuse as he sees it to widen his use of Russian forces. NATO will condemn these unprovoked  aggressions but will not commit its own forces to the fight.
February 24, 2022
Good Morning,
Answer: The ‘Western Democracies’, led by the USA, should make destroying the Russian economy its top priority; and we must succeed. This can only be achieved by a united, concerted effort. No trade with Russia, no SWIFT, no money into Russia and confiscation of assets held outside Russia, cancel foreign governement bonds owned by Russia.
Why is this so important? Look East, China is watching and Taiwan is next if we fail.
February 24, 2022
President Biden has already said there would be no military intervention. He may supply arms and military advisors. Carte Blanche for Russia to move troops across the border.
As for sanctions, UK gets vast sums of Russian wealth passing through its shores and many make handsome profits from this. For all the talk, nothing much will change to disrupt this flow. Itâs the same situation with China and also funds from various third world kleptocrats.
Ukraine is not a direct threat to the US or indeed the U.K.
It was silly for Wallace to make daft references to the Crimean war.
February 24, 2022
JR, what of Ben Habibâs article yesterday questioning Johnson and Truss double standards to allow the EU to annexe N.Ireland and impose its laws and regulations on the rest of GB? While of course spouting about Russia taking Ukraine sovereignty etc. The end result being the same but the means being different.
All bluster once more, while Russia can see for itself how weak and pathetic Johnson really is in failing his own country by allowing the EU to bully him into submission of their will. No shot or tank required he turns belly up!
Frankly I do not care about Ukraine- the West should have kept its promises not to expand east and what about the West imposing its will on Serbia? What about Cameron claiming he wanted to expand the EU to the Urals?
A good distraction for this PM. It he has work at home to do, ie help N.Ireland protocol, fishing our waters and Gibraltar with EU talks!
February 25, 2022
A pro-EU group at Queens University Belfast have produced another survey showing how people in Northern Ireland are still sharply, and I would say dangerously, divided over the protocol:
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/02/24/news/protocol-continues-to-divide-opinion-in-northern-ireland-according-to-qub-poll-2596960/
Two points stand out for me.
Firstly that the brazen lies told by UK politicians, notably Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, and by various Irish politicians like Micheal Martin and Neale Richmond:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/02/06/the-bank-of-england-forecasts-a-poor-future/#comment-1297907
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/02/19/brexit-wins-change-at-the-treasury/#comment-1300794
have clearly had some effect, with 48% thinking that the protocol has a positive economic impact while only 43% recognising the truth that it has a negative economic impact.
Secondly that “thanks to the grace periods, the Protocol has not yet been fully implemented” – in fact Edwin Poots claimed that only 10% of the EU mandated checks were being carried out:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/02/17/resolving-the-northern-ireland-trade-issues/#comment-1300384
Well, I reckon that maybe the UK should do what the EU keeps demanding and fully implement the protocol, indeed do what the UK government and civil service have often done in the past and over implement it, “gold plate” it to be absolutely sure that there can be no risk at all to the integrity of the EU Single Market.
At least, zero risk to the EU Single Market from goods imported into Northern Ireland and possibly then carried across the land border – olive oil, oranges, sugar, children’s toys, etc:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/02/24/president-biden-takes-on-president-putin/#comment-1302134
but of course that does nothing at all about the children’s toys and other goods produced in the province, which under the protocol should still be produced to EU Single Market standards.
And how can their conformity to EU rules possibly be checked when according to the Irish government “any checks or controls anywhere on the island would constitute a hard borderâ?
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/01/22/the-battles-over-gas/#comment-1294274
Once the protocol was being fully implemented, and preferably over implemented to be quite sure of zero risk to the precious and inviolable EU Single Market, the jewel in the EU crown, opinions in the province might change very rapidly, against the protocol, and so too perhaps the attitudes of the so-called “Conservative and Unionist” MPs who keep the Great Charlatan in office.
February 24, 2022
It was also incredibly stupid of the Ukrainian comedian-President to muse about acquiring nuclear weapons.
Forward the Light Brigade!
February 24, 2022
Instinctively I don’t feel “destroying the Russian economy” would be such a good idea. Not unless you are also planning mass genocide of the vengeful Russians, and what would the UN have to say about that?
Equally I don’t think this is such a good idea either:
https://euobserver.com/opinion/154406
“Today’s the day to declare Ukraine an EU candidate country”
February 24, 2022
I generally agree, Denis.
February 24, 2022
Putin doesn’t care. He wants a resurrection of the USSR and sees himself as Czar. His people are of no account to him, never have been. He will just go into the arms of China with a view to rule the world. He does seem a bit mentally disturbed these days and logic never wins in such a situation. He is convinced the West want to take over Russia, he sees a glorious nation. He is old KGB and has had a lifetime of such thoughts and indoctrination. The West, especially under Biden is too weak morally and financially to have any effect. We will feel it more than him with less gas, wheat etc. Not that that will be a problem for our rulers, they don’t care about the people either.
February 24, 2022
Sir John,
Given the increase in the cost of oil this morning, this should strengthen your argument to abandon plans to increase NI and VAT to help keep down the cost of living increase.
reply Indeed anÂŁ strengthens the case for getting out more of our own oil anÂŁ gas and pocketing the tax on that
February 24, 2022
Good reply John.
February 24, 2022
Putin should be in the dock in The Hague. Hopefully he will land up there in due course, and not be strung up by his own people upon a lamppost like Mussolini, or have the opportunity to put a bullet in his head like Hitler.
February 27, 2022
Yes, though how that would happen isn’t easy to see atm.
February 24, 2022
Have you really thought this through, Peter? If NATO increases its belligerence and Russia then takes control of Ukraine, it will be Europe that will suffer the worst economic consequences, not Russia. Russia will have a commanding position in energy resources and distribution networks, and Europe will pay a horrific price in terms of gas and oil price rises, on top of what we are already seeing.
If only we had politicians with foresight and who could see where our real interests lie. Rather than parading as pseudo-Churchillian saviours of freedom and democracy, when in reality their record shows all too clearly they are nothing of the sort.
February 25, 2022
I was not impressed by the jingoism on display in the Commons yesterday, nor by the ham thespian attempts of the Great Charlatan to project himself as a modern day Churchill, cometh the hour cometh the man etc etc.
February 27, 2022
No, Churchill was himself a battle-hardened warrior, not a puffed-up ex hack.
February 27, 2022
Why wasn’t all this done or at least mentioned as should be done altho none of it could be as the US rules the world, to the US and the UK etc. when they illegally invaded Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc., etc. And a million dead, millions displaced and 500,000 dead children was a price worth paying. Nothing to see here but plenty elsewhere. The US even kills its own citizens with drones – no problem, who is caring? Don’t mention the US torture program.
Except for the 1 million + march against the Iraq war here in the UK nothing more was said.
February 24, 2022
Blame Obama’s sockpuppet Biden and the EU. Biden’s an amoeba and the EU has become a danger to itself encouraging greater expansion eastwards. A weak POTUS and a cretinous organisation like the EU. It’s an invitation card to a despot like Putin and it’s a card he’s now handed in at the door.
And why do fascists always invoke the Nazi threat when they act like animals? This form of politics is now being used to start wars, demonise US citizens and crush truckers.
February 24, 2022
I see that Sir John has carefully avoided mentioning anything said by this country’s frankly embarrassing PM, and the insignificant gestures that he has announced.
Putin does not express any particular grievance against the European Union, only against NATO, of which this country is a member, and rather boastful of claiming to spend more than others.
Having looked at recent history – Russia asked to be considered as a NATO member – it’s unsurprising that some here think that he has a case.
reply The whole crisis began in 2014 when an elected Ukrainian President who did not want an Association Agreement with the EU was kicked out and replaced by an EU friendly President!
February 24, 2022
How do Biden’s less transparent relationships with Ukraine feed into all this?
February 24, 2022
What do you claim those to be?
February 24, 2022
I don’t think our sanctions will make the slightest difference, although I did learn early in life in the East End of London, that if you can’t avoid a fight get in early and hard and knock your opponent to the ground and make sure he doesn’t get up again. Patting an enemy with a feather duster with a threat of more never works.
February 24, 2022
The present president was elected with 73% of the vote.
It seems that some people do not like democracy when it represents those who favour the European Union.
February 24, 2022
He was also elected on a promise to make peace with the eastern provinces;something which he has either been unable to do-or has been prevented from doing by outside forces.His wealth accumulation has also been exposed in the Pandora Papers and his poll ratings a couple of months ago were in the mid 20s %.
February 24, 2022
True.
February 24, 2022
Remarkably he got loads more votes than even than Obama.
An incredible result.
Historic levels of votes.
Biden’s polls before the election didn’t predict these levels of success.
February 24, 2022
democracy in Russia?, near burst my sides laughing.
February 25, 2022
Yes, it is a travesty, but if Trump has his way then the US will be quite similar.
February 27, 2022
democracy in the USA? – made my sides ache too.
February 24, 2022
Given that this whole conflict started with Ukraine’s wish to join the EU, this clearly has NOTHING to do with us. Why would we do ANYTHING that might help the filthy EU? They have, sadly, decided that they want to be our enemies, so let them sort out their own problems. Ukraine will soon learn that the EU are nobody’s friend, and they should keep their distance from them!
February 24, 2022
Well said JR, plus 100. Now none of our business if EU wants to continue mess with US. Sort out Brexit and giving up N. Ireland, fishing rights etc. get Johnson on track to our problems, stop giving our taxes to Ukraine, EU and stop putting up taxes for stupid wasteful issues. It is our money not chaotic misfit Johnson who is incapable of running a household budget!!
February 24, 2022
It was also an invitation card to despots for us to disarm the way we have, fooling ourselves that we don’t need boots on the ground or tanks or war ships, whizzy techy stuff would do it all for us, the problem there is that Putin and his ilk are not impressed with that. But not only have we disarmed we have also made what remains of our forces look a right joke with the officer class going woke, more worried about pronouns, as in the RAF, gender representation , Navy target to have a quarter female , and the Army setting aside days for introspection. Part of a military’s role is to project a threat to regimes who would do us harm saying ‘don’t mess with us’ in making our military look like politically correct clowns they have done our security a great deal of harm , and just as we would consider sabotage of military equipment an act of treason so too is this , and those who have spearheaded this wokery , politicians and officers should be made to pay for it.
February 24, 2022
I M, +1, so right, but will the powers that be take notice or, like in USA, will reality not be allowed to blow the diversity mission off its course?
February 24, 2022
A meticulous analysis as usual, Iain Moore.
February 24, 2022
Ian. Yes I have to agree with your post. I have been speaking with many ex servicemen and those currently still serving and they despair at what is going on in the military and indeed the woke world in general.
February 27, 2022
‘…regimes who would do us harm …’ Militarily? what regimes would they be and for what purpose? Perhaps possible but no one specifies. In the future who knows? Well let’s have a military strength for ever and ever.
February 24, 2022
Since you mention nazism, let’s note that Putin’s war is not one of racist extermination, but of strategic interest.
For that reason alone comparisons with WWII are inappropriate.
The Russian people collectively remember that they lost 25+ million people in fighting nazism, and also that there was plenty of enemy collaboration in Ukraine. Putin’s claim that there have arisen neo-nazi groups there will resonate very strongly with them.
Whatever the rest of the world does, it should think very carefully about how to avoid making matters worse.
February 24, 2022
So what would you suggest?
February 24, 2022
And so you carefully avoid any mention of the Soviet-German non-aggression Act of 1939, otherwise known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, thus avoiding mention of both sides wishing to carve up Poland between them.
Stalin was quite in favour of Nazism, by the way – and as many members of my family knew all too well, Russians themselves were not altogether antipathetic to a nice bit of violent semitic extermination.
February 24, 2022
If they were directly relevant to what is happening then I would.
I don’t dispute your claims, but they are not particularly so.
February 27, 2022
‘Stalin was quite in favour of Nazism’ perhaps as the US was in favour of communism as it kept the US very powerful which they like very much. As they favour Russia and China for the same reason.
February 24, 2022
The sanctions of a couple of days ago failed because they targeted too few Russians. Our sense of fairness was the cause of this, with Johnson even saying that ‘the sins of the father shouldn’t be visited on the children’, in connection with the oligarchs’ access to our Public Schools system. Now for some ‘Centre of Gravity analysis’: Putin and his senior hoods are the enemy CoG. Because Russia is a (barely-functioning) democracy, Putin has a ‘critical requirement’ for a measure of support from his people, especially the middle class. (Xi is in the same position but for differing reasons.) And Putin’s ‘critical vulnerability’ is that much of what his people want – such as access to the West, for holidays, study, residence – is in the gift of the West. So we should forget the oligarchs and ban the Russian people from the West. They will stop cheering when they can’t ski.
February 24, 2022
Let’s not forget that Putin is a politician, and as such needs to feel popular support behind him. He’s supported by many of his population who have had enough of Russian speakers in Ukraine being shelled constantly by the Ukrainian military. They have wanted Putin to take action for a long time, but he delayed until now, preferring to maintain peaceful relations with the West if possible (misguided optimism). Ukrainian Army use of Grad multi-missile launchers against civilians in the Donbass this week was the last straw. He could not maintain credibility at home by continuing to take no action.
February 27, 2022
I wonder why Putin didn’t just attack those installations or whatever that are shelling Donbas. Probably for good reasons which I have no knowledge of course
February 24, 2022
Good morning.
I don’t know, why don’t we ask, Hunter Biden ? He knows the Ukrainian government better than anyone else.
/sarc
February 24, 2022
Mark,
In fairness it appears his highly paid non-job was a back-hander for US state aid! Where is that computer and what was the finding of the US security services?
February 24, 2022
One could argue that Putins actions are not surprising in that all around him his fellow world leaders have been stumbling around with situations of their own making presenting a perceived disjointed weakness and he has taken full advantage of the situation.
Been there back in the 30s politicians all talking the talk and doing nothing , and then everything else was too late.
In the short term Nato, America, EU, and the UK will be struggling to play catch up. Putin has a thug, bully mentality the only thing he recognises and grudgingly respects is unified strength and actions.
February 24, 2022
+1
February 24, 2022
NATO should send its most accurate and powerful missile direct to the Kremlin.
Letâs remove Putin immediately.
February 24, 2022
The man’s a menace, its 1930s all over again. A maniac destabilising the world.
February 24, 2022
Are you all right Andy ?
February 24, 2022
The poor chap might believe “The EU: keeping the peace in Europe 1945 – 2022” so is now in shock.
February 24, 2022
Andy and pro-European Union people generally have only ever claimed that it was effective at keeping peace between its members.
Ukraine, like former Yugoslavia was, is not a member.
If their desire to become members is a problem for others, then that is no fault of the European Union, any more than it is the fault of any attractive organisation that others might want to join.
It has not proselytised on that basis.
February 24, 2022
Oh I see…so whilst the current EU leaders plan expansion eastwards into old USSR nations you really think that will not provoke any reaction?
February 25, 2022
And yet in other comments on this post “Andy” demands Putin’s assassination while you rate his life being far more valuable than the hundreds being murdered at his behest.
The EU, it’s acolytes and adherents aspire to be power block equivalent to states and empires, right next door to a dangerous empire from which it has taken territory. The EU foments conflict and this attitude has prompted violence and murder yet now you say it is nothing to do with you, it is not the EU’s fault.
The test of any individual or organisation is when things go wrong and the EU has failed utterly.
February 25, 2022
If saving lives justified the murder of heads of sovereign states then those of this country and of the US could have been bumped off repeatedly, couldn’t they?
Putin’s beef with the European Union only seems to be that several of its members are NATO puppets in his view.
February 25, 2022
Dixie, it was certain nations who pushed for the eastward expansion of the EC, notably the UK under Thatcher, wasn’t it?
Others were rather lukewarm on the idea.
February 24, 2022
Russia has missiles capable of shooting down incoming ballistic missiles, so in a rather safer position than you imagine. The Wests strategy is to swamp those defences with more missiles than they can cope with, should the need arise.
February 24, 2022
As mature and informed as the rest of your contributions. Good to see your idol Macron making such a difference.
February 24, 2022
People like you are a menace! Thankfully, others with more intelligence have their fingers on the button!
February 24, 2022
I would like to think you are being sarcastic, Andy, but I think you are not.
February 24, 2022
https://shannonselin.com/2014/01/napoleons-nemesis-duke-wellington/
“It is claimed that during the battle a British artillery officer came to Wellington to tell him that he had a clear a view of Napoleon and several guns pointing in that direction. Wellington replied, âNo! Iâll not allow it. It is not the business of commanders to be firing upon one another.â As Andrew Roberts notes in Napoleon and Wellington (2001), Napoleon needed to be defeated in the field. If he had been killed in an âungentlemanlyâ fashion, people would always have suspected that he would have won the battle. Afterwards, Wellington refused to allow Napoleon to be handed over to the Prussians, who were keen to execute him.”
February 24, 2022
The French, of course, had no such scruples. Lord Uxbridge was the Duke of Wellington’s second-in-command and was next to him when his leg was blown off. He famously exclaimed, “By God, sir, I’ve lost my leg”, to which Wellington replied “By God, sir, so you have”.
February 24, 2022
No doubt you will also been in awe of the leadership shown by Brussels especially Merkelâs place woman Von Leyden. I read that the head of the German Army says that he has nothing in terms of meeting the Russian threats, alluding to Merkelâs failure to fund the Army. Remind me again who was Germanyâs defence minister back in the day? None other than the mute neutered Ms Leyden. I guess even she thinks the broomsticks that had to train with wouldnât frighten a mouse let alone Putin.
Yet again it highlights the vacuum and self interest at the heart of the EU. Maybe thatâs why you have been strangely quiet. Bang on about post Brexit lorry queues but nothing on EUs failure in regards to Russia. Time to open your eyes and get your priorities straight.
Allegedly they have recognised their weaknesses and asked us to lead on Europeâs security. Makes you spit into your cornflakes doesnât it?
February 24, 2022
Putin is the leader of a sovereign country and remains popular with Russians.
He was elected in a democracy, perhaps a flawed one, but not as subverted as the US’s is rapidly becoming, arguably.
He makes his own case for his actions. He may have to defend it one day, but that would be a matter for whatever authorities at the time.
There are no grounds for his assassination in relation to this conflict, and it would be a crime far more serious than his own actions if it were attempted.
February 24, 2022
“elected in a democracy, perhaps a flawed one….”
Understatement of the decade.
February 24, 2022
what was that famous shout ( on the tennis court) ‘YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS !’
February 25, 2022
I am serious that a missile attack on the Kremlin by NATO would be madness, yes.
February 25, 2022
‘I am serious that a missile attack on the Kremlin by NATO would be madness, yes.’
I imagine we’d all agree with that, however a certain radioactive substance smeared in his tea, coffee, vodka etc might do the job. Just deserts?
February 25, 2022
Andy
February 24, 2022
NATO should send its most accurate and powerful missile direct to the Kremlin.
Letâs remove Putin immediately.
– Outcome ideal, method very doubtful.
February 24, 2022
Andy,
Short of time this morning?
Where’s the bit about Brexit and pensioners?
February 24, 2022
A very silly post.
JF
February 27, 2022
Andy – ‘and someone should send its most accurate and powerful missile direct also to the Pentagon, Langley, White House if one wants a peaceful world. Just in the 21st C the US has killed and damaged more people than any other country.
February 24, 2022
At the very centre of all these threatened or active, potential take over of countries and peoples is the alpha beast . Trying to politicise it with counter threats is futile . To stop the war ,it would make sense not to go for the countries inhabitants who will pay the price , but listen and get into the mind of Putin and his obvious anger. He knows that all the big countries have means to counter attack , he knows that he has lots of gas and oil to sell . He has seen how other countries become very rich with oil without isolating itself. He was simply a union man on Russia’s streets and his power has escalated. He is angry with the Junta . Speak to the Junta.
Flexing of muscles between nations feeds this longed for power central to these aggressive beasts who simply want their own way and those who don’t want them to get their own way. Countries don’t fight , Countries don’t spoil the world, it is something much smaller .. the little minds of men.
February 24, 2022
I was about to say dumb silver backs , but at least they protect their own group and the battle is purely a boxing match.
February 24, 2022
Mr Putin is a far better chess player than Mr Biden.
Mr Bidens handlers should keep him from getting the US in any deeper as we should, and leave the EU to oversee the virtual transfer of E Ukraine to Russia.
February 24, 2022
Jonathan Steele has the most logical analysis of Putin’s thinking that I have read in yesterday’s Guardian.
If he is correct, then events will follow a pattern seen previously.
February 24, 2022
Jonathan Steele is quite good;(academic)Richard Sakwa is even better.
Many of the other talking heads wheeled out by the media are either associated with the security services or hired propagandist hacks.
Some of you may remember the “Integrity Initiative” leaks from a few years ago-the Russian intelligence services(it was probably them) hacked their files and released details of journalists(so-called) and academics(so-called) and how much they were being paid by the word to produce knocking copy on Russia.
February 24, 2022
The Russians play chess. The West plays tiddleywinks. However, Mr Putin forgets that the Chinese are not playing games and need Siberia’s resources. When China takes what it needs, who will Russia turn to for help?
JF
February 24, 2022
The Chinese can pay for what they want-they need Russia’s friendship-and it does seem to be a genuine friendship,with an ever increasing number of joint ventures underway.With Russia’s landmass connecting them to Europe,they cannot be blockaded by the west.
In addition Russia’s military is far more sophisticated than China’s.
February 24, 2022
In 2014 the Crimean Peninsula.
2022 Ukrainian disputed territory.
Where next with his paranoia over Nato and EU influence going to take him?
February 24, 2022
What should the US do next? I’m tempted to say replace Biden, but that will have to wait for the midterms or later.
I’m more worried about the autocrats here in the West, than Russia. They are a far greater danger to my liberty and freedom than Russia and perhaps even China will be, in my lifetime.
It would be nice if the Ukrainians of all ethnicities could choose their own future, but not a disaster to most citizens in the UK if it doesn’t happen.
The US establishment should fix its broken democracy rather than huff and puff at foreigners who exercise the sort of brute power the elites in the West wish they had.
February 24, 2022
It would be nice if the people of Northern Ireland and Scotland could choose their own futures too.
They’d still be in the European Union if they could.
Reply Scotland did choose their future in a referendum. Northern Ireland has not wanted one.
February 24, 2022
The referendum in Scotland was invalidated by the tearing up of The Pledge before the last votes were even counted.
They know that they were had.
February 24, 2022
Subsequent polls show little enthusiasm for independence.
February 24, 2022
Oh, do they really?
February 24, 2022
Oh really yes NHL they do
February 25, 2022
The latest poll I found on the Scottish question taken 3-5/12/2021 published on 07/12 does not appear to support P2âs assertions.
Maybe he has a more recent poll that would justify his comments?
February 25, 2022
I spoke of various polls since the last independence referendum.
Did you not read what I wrote in your quick response heffy?
February 26, 2022
P2, Oh, now, you want to look at historical polls. Why do you not want to do the same with GDP or foreign investment figures? May I conclude that in your way of dealing with statistics, time series of data require a different treatment depending on your original bias.
February 26, 2022
Spoke?
February 24, 2022
And now they have virtually no oil to pay for any of their expensive ideas. The Scots may huff and puff to screw more money of of Westminster which the do with regularity, but they are not stupid enough to put some ‘independence’ ideology of the SNP ( which would be immediately given away to the EU) ahead of cold hard cash.
February 24, 2022
“Theyâd still be in the European Union if they could.”
Logically those who voted for the whole of the UK to stay in the EU would still have the whole of the UK in the EU if they could, but that’s not the same as splitting from the UK in order to apply to rejoin the EU.
But in any case so far there is no real justification for a second referendum in Scotland. Maybe in twenty years time it will have become clearer whether the inhabitants of Scotland have or have not suffered significantly from the UK changing its treaties with its neighbours, and maybe then it would be reasonable to ask them again whether they would prefer to set their own separate course.
As for Northern Ireland, there was never any need for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU to cause serious problems; they spring from very bad decisions made by two successive Tory Prime Ministers, Theresa May and Boris Johnson, who chose to follow their party’s policy of the past six decades by prioritising the interests and convenience of the 6% or so of UK businesses who export 12% or so of our GDP to the EU.
As Theresa May said in her Mansion House speech of March 2 2018:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-our-future-economic-partnership-with-the-european-union
“… businesses who export to the EU tell us that it is strongly in their interest to have a single set of regulatory standards that mean they can sell into the UK and EU markets … ”
All the other businesses in the UK can shift for themselves and live with that.
February 24, 2022
As we have got onto Northern Ireland here is my letter printed in the Maidenhead Advertiser today, looking back four years to the publication of this previous letter, the week before Theresa May made that Mansion House speech:
https://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/letters-to-the-editor/128146/easy-solution-to-eu-border-conundrum.html
Here is this week’s letter:
“Theresa May ignored EU border suggestion”
“Allegedly back in 2019 Theresa May accused the Democratic Unionist Party of a “lack of strategic thinking”, but it is not clear to me whether or not she suffered from the same problem herself.
It is true that she chose to simply ignore a sensible suggestion offered in a letter printed here four years ago on February 22 2018, headed “Easy solution to EU border conundrum”, which is still available on the Advertiser website, and in a subsequent succession of letters copied directly to her, and it is true that we are still living with the increasingly dangerous consequences of that decision.
However if her strategic plan was to use the hugely exaggerated difficulties of the Irish land border as a pretext to give big business as much as possible of what they were demanding, short of staying in the EU, then she succeeded in that plan until it was rejected by MPs.
Since then similar proposals have come from other sources, including a former Director-General at the EU Commission and two professors of European law, and most recently the Tory peer Lord Lilley has taken it up, arguing that passing a UK law to protect the EU Single Market would limit the excuses for disproportionate retaliation in the event that the UK invoked Article 16 of the Irish protocol.
However I think we saw last November that Boris Johnson is unlikely to do anything that might put at risk his precious “Canada style” free trade deal with the EU, worth all of 0.75 percent to the UK economy according to the EU Commission.”
February 24, 2022
Do you have any spare shoehorns? That one’s looking a bit worn.
JF
February 24, 2022
Putin himself has used the comparison as a fig leaf.
February 24, 2022
It seems you are pro Russia and pro Chinese Communist Party NHL
Great combination.
February 25, 2022
I am neither.
However, I understand how this horror and tragedy has come about.
February 24, 2022
The USA should retire Senile Joe on health grounds but with the even more hopeless Kamala Harris as the elected alternative they appear to have completely snookered themselves. And they simply don’t have the Will to get directly involved in a military conflict in a foreign country of which most American people know less than very little.
So they’ll huff, puff and threaten to blow Putin’s house down but what that will mean in practice is economic and diplomatic sanctions and I doubt if they’ll achieve anything meaningful.
February 24, 2022
Done more than snooker themselves , don’t forget Biden has been purging the US military of patriots , so they have been dismembering their military capability.
February 24, 2022
“Putin says he will not invade and occupy Ukraine but clearly plans to use his military resources to effect regime change and create a more submissive Ukraine. ”
As his tanks are currently in Ukraine, having crosed the border, it shows us what his word is worth. Right now history is repeating itself, and we need a Thatcher or a Churchill. Unfortunately we have a Chamberlain in Downing Street, and a tired old man in the Whitehouse.
February 24, 2022
A lot of the response from our politicians is impotent ranting. Putin can drive out the current Ukraine administration, install a puppet regime to his liking, and withdraw most of his troops. What will be the objective of our sanctions then? It will all die down like it did after Putin seized the Crimea. We are not remotely strong enough to provide the robust defence of Poland and the Baltic States that is necessary on our own, so we should stop posturing and provide our limited capabilities to the American forces who will have to do it.
February 27, 2022
What is Putin’s word worth? No less that any word of a US president nor any CIA/congress/White House spokesperson.
Don’t forget Pompeo’s telling us they they cheat, lie and something else I can’t remember at the moment.
February 24, 2022
Sanctions imposed after he annexed the Crimea didn’t work at all so why should they now ? Let the EU get on and handle it – I mean we’ve been told repeatedly that the “adults” are in charge there – and have UK stand aside – one of the benefits of Brexit.
February 24, 2022
We know that appeasement doesnât work. That painful lesson was taught in the 1930âs. We also know that standing up to bullies is the only course that works. The governments of every freedom loving nation need to employ all measure to redress the situation and persevere however long it takes.
February 24, 2022
+1
February 27, 2022
When you are weak appeasement can work – it gives more time to prepare.
February 24, 2022
Finland and Sweden should join NATO immediately. We need large force deployments to NATOs eastern border. There needs not to be the slightest doubt about NATOâs article 5.
Good for Chancellor Sholz at least suspending Nordstream2. merkel, Schröder and many others should never have promoted this disgraceful project.
With sanctions we need to make sure we donât end up unfairly targeting anyone who happens to be Russian or has a Russian name. But it is widely reported that there are major league Russian thieves wandering around doing business freely in the U.K. and elsewhere and operating through money laundering operations posing as legitimate businesses. A serious clampdown on these would send a strong message. We also need our own version of the magnitsky act.
February 24, 2022
What a hot-headed recipe for disaster.
February 24, 2022
+ 100
February 24, 2022
Lickspittle!
JF
February 24, 2022
I’d leave it to the Finns and the Swedes.
February 24, 2022
Sweden spends just 1% of its GDP on Defence, so an application to join NATO should be rejected as quickly as a drunk’s request for a fully comprehensive motor insurance policy. Finland spends 2%, so is more worthy of NATO protection, but borders Russia, so her joining the Alliance might make NATO members less safe. I would suggest that if any reinforcement of Finland is needed then it should be provided by the EU, and not by NATO. Both countries should, of course, increase their Defence budgets.
February 24, 2022
“President Biden suffered a major reversal when he left Afghanistan with too much haste and secrecy”
Not that lie again, it was President Trump who agreed to and signed the Doha Agreement, including the time scale, all Biden did was adhere to that agreement. The debacle of the Afghanistan retreat happened on Trumps watch, by the time Biden entered the White House the withdrawal was 75% complete and thus a done deal.
Reply Not true. Trump wanted to pull out completely but saw the danger and did not do so 3rd though an election was coming up where he wanted to claim success in getting the troops back home. Afghanistan was Biden’s disaster.
February 24, 2022
The disaster in Afghanistan was rather more attributable to who sent the troops in, arguably.
February 24, 2022
@NLH; Not at all, although it could be argued the terms of combat in Afghanistan were wrong, and thus NATO forces became bogged down in the same way as the USSR did back in the late 1970s.
February 24, 2022
Between which parties were these “terms” agreed?
February 24, 2022
Not so , Trump’s withdrawal plan from Afghanistan came with obligations on Taliban to meet certain criteria , Biden’s was withdraw and to heck with the consequences.
February 24, 2022
@Iain Moore; But anyone with a clue understood the Taliban could not be trusted, so the question has to be asked, why did Trump choose to sign the Doha agreement, and then carry through with the vast majority of the US withdrawal, most of which occurred before Biden was even elected.
February 24, 2022
@JR reply; So why did Trump sign the Doha agreement, and then comply with its timetable?
“he wanted to claim success in getting the troops back home”
Indeed, that is exactly what Trump wanted, he did the same with US troops (attached to NATO) in Europe (and look who that has emboldened this week), claiming the US could no longer bankroll such defenses, “MAGA, [put] America First” was his cry. Your logic is akin to blaming the folly of the Vietnam war on Nixon or Ford, not LBJ…
Reply But he realised it was too dangerous to withdraw all troops and did not. Biden insisted on total overnight withdrawal without consulting allies which is what caused the disaster
February 24, 2022
@JR reply; “But [Trump] realised it was too dangerous to withdraw all troops and did not.”
There was nothing more than a rear-guard left by mid Jan 2021 when Biden took office, leaving him little or no option but to complete the pullout, there was a mere 2,500 or so US military personal left in Afghanistan by then. Under the Doha agreement withdrawal should have been complete by 1st May 2021, but due to continued Taliban attacks Biden pushed that date back until the end of August, deploying an extra 3,000 [1] US troops back into Afghanistan to secure necessary key positions against continued Taliban advances.
The fact is, having signed what rapidly turned out of be a worthless agreement Trump should have stopped US/NATO withdrawals under the Doha agreement back in July 2020, June of that year being the worst month for Taliban insurgency since 2001. The ONLY ‘do nothing’ President was Trump.
[1] bring net numbers back up to c. 3500
February 27, 2022
Also the time scale is not relevant as it was stretched and could have been stretched even more.
February 24, 2022
What is happening has exposed Truss/Johnson as popgun politicians making worthless threats. Sanctions on a few small banks and a few individuals. Wow.
I remember Michael Fallon back in the day being equally bombastic about moving our assets East as if Putin would be worried. He wasnât then and isnât now.
Ukraine is just another country let down by weak self interested western politicians going back to the Hungarian uprising, all bluster and no balls making worthless promises.
Sums up Johnson perfectly.
February 24, 2022
I don’t normally recommend the Daily Mail, but strongly advise looking at Bob Seely MP’s article there today on why further UK sanctions against Russia are unlikely to happen (at least in the near future!).
February 24, 2022
Mind you half of “Ukraine” was Hungary; now a very diminished land mass, I would pull our lot out of Liviv as the Russians will flatten it.
The Russians will not accept (Anti Soviet… Folks who actively; unlike Finland, tried to inflict maximum damage on the Motherland) they take it very personally that “Ukraines Nazi’s are now showing there face” due to 20 million Soviet dead in WW2.
I think we seriously underestimate just how annoyed this makes them; cold war aside.
February 24, 2022
Er,no.A good chunk of it (Galicia,west Ukraine)was part of the Austrian half of the Austro-Hungarian empire;a small part,Zakarpatia/Transcarpathia,was part of the Kingdom of Hungary,and annexed by the USSR after WWII.
Hungary was indeed treated very badly at Versailles-it lost around two-thirds of it’s territory-equating to the modern states of Croatia,Slovakia and the regions of Transylvannia(now Romania) and Krajina(now Serbia).That’s why it reluctantly threw in it’s lot with Hitler-the hope of recovering some of those losses.
I would be utterly amazed if Russia was remotely intetested in Lviv-or any part of western Ukraine.
February 24, 2022
Putin is running rings around the nation states and the EU, with weak leaders in place all over.
The EU has enormous responsibility, being the immediate neighbour and having been pre-involved with Association Agreements etc.
The US and UK have weak leaders, France has a small-man slightly absurd character. Germany is too dependent.
It’s down to NATO to put together a plan.
February 24, 2022
Except that this has got NOTHING to do with NATO. This conflict is all about Ukraine’s relationships with Russia and the EU. So let those three entities sort it out amongst themselves. It has got nothing to do with the UK, that’s for sure. What happens in Ukraine will not make one iota’s difference to my life. How will it affect you? Ukraine has done NOTHING for Britain, so we have no obligation to do anything for them.
In terms of Britain’s security, a little less emotion and a little bit more logic would tell you that tying up all Russia’s forces in an occupation of Ukraine would seriously reduce their ability to conduct warfare elsewhere.
February 24, 2022
+1
February 24, 2022
Funny, that’s not what Putin says at all.
February 24, 2022
That’s fine NHL as you accept all Putin says.
February 25, 2022
+1
If NATO does get directly involved then it will simply make Putin’s virtual fig leaf real.
February 25, 2022
Agreed.
We have enough to do securing the countries which have been admitted to NATO.
February 24, 2022
The USA can’t go toe to toe with Russia. They could support Ukraine by opening up NATO bases in Poland and offer a safe haven for the Ukrainian air force to refuel and re-equip.
February 24, 2022
Putin’s problem now is how to get out of the situation – it was easy enough to go in. Russia seems to want to take more territory in southern Ukraine so as to defend the Donbas long term. But then there may be fighting there for say, the next eight years, as there has been fighting in the Donbas itself for the last eight years. Putin may not be the great chess player that he’s reputed to be.
February 25, 2022
The South is quite pro-Russian too;occupying the ports of the Black Sea and securing a coastal land corridor from Donbass to Moldova/Transnistria will cut Ukraine’s access to the sea,leaving it’s important grain trade in Russia’s hands.
February 24, 2022
What do I think the US should do next, Sir John? Concentrate on solving its own problems, and it’s got enough of them, especially after the Covid debacle.
US intervention in the Ukraine crisis has made a bad situation worse. Biden was told by Ukraine’s Prime Minister Zelensky to ease off the war rhetoric. He didn’t, preferring to provoke Russia further. Now Ukraine suffers as a consequence.
February 24, 2022
Itâs 2022. And we now already have the major war in Europe that David Cameron warned of before the referendum.
Remember the Brexitistsâ howls of outrage when Mr Cameron warned of a newly belligerent Russia and the said outside the EU peace was at risk.
Mr Cameron was right. The Brexitist were wrong again. But then we know some of the Brexitists have very close links to Putin – as does Mr Trump.
Brexitsts and Trumpists – it is now very clear. You were either fooled by the Russian funded misinformation campaigns you backed, or you are treacherous and still working for Putin. Which is it?
Reply Absurd. Putin annexed Crimea and disrupted Donbas before our referendum! Why didn’t the EU stop them?
February 24, 2022
You donât half spout some bollocks
February 24, 2022
Is anyone seriously claiming, that if the UK – a major military power – were still a solidaire member of the European Union, one of the Big Three that is, that Putin would not have been more hesitant to do what he has just done?
If so, then why?
I await such claims and explanations with interest.
February 24, 2022
âAs a diplomatic envoy, a full-size cardboard cut-out of Mrs T. would score over Liz Truss/Boris Johnson in two vital regards: 1/ it would remind foreign leaders of a time when Britain had a leader who, whatever else she might have been, was in fact respected overseas, and 2/ it would not say or do anythingâ much as the present PM and FS actually do wrt Ukraine while costing much less.
Freely adapted from M.Benn, 24/02/2022.
February 24, 2022
While Putin wages war on Ukraine, I see the Tory Brexit pensioners are now waging war on young people on two fronts.
Firstly, students will now be paying back their student loans until they are, erm, pensioners. How they will afford this along with the Tory Brexit NI tax, massive Tory house prices hikes, low Tory wages and the huge Tory Brexit pensioner cost of living crisis I do not know.
The pensioners are also waging war on young people from disadvantaged backgrounds – saying those who fail some GCSEs should be barred from university.
If you are bit dim but come from a rich background and daddy pays for you to go to a good school you donât fail any exams. Half of the Cabinet is in this category.
If you donât have the advantages of rich parents and a good school of course you might fail an exam or two. That should not exclude you from university.
I went to a failing school in Thatcherâs Britain. Kids like me were told we werenât good enough for universities. And what happened? Out of 150 kids only 4 of us went to university. We did it despite the system, not because of it.
Mr Mogg, if he had gone to my school, would now be driving a delivery van or stacking shelves. He is significantly less gifted than people I grew with. How dare these rich, entitled, posh twats try to remove the one way disadvantaged kids have the chance to escape the circumstances of their birth.
February 24, 2022
The student loans scheme was a Lib Dem idea
February 25, 2022
The Student Loans Company was founded for the academic year 1990/91, at the transition Thatcher/Major. It was providing tuition fee and maintenance loans.
ÂŁ1,000 tuition fees were introduced in 1997 by the Blair Government, in 2004 they became ÂŁ3,000. From 2012, they were increased to ÂŁ6,000/ÂŁ9,000, now ÂŁ9,250.
The Student Loans Company since its creation 31 years ago has kept its original objectives to help students and their families to pay for the expenses linked to a university education. What changed after 2010 is that any student can apply for a loan, not that everybody can get such a loan.
February 25, 2022
Hef
It’s the Lib Dem major expansion and revision I was referring to and the introduction of ÂŁ9000 fees.
The massive U turn on their pre election headline manifesto policy.
I realised there were student loans available before that but thanks for your lecture on the topic.
February 25, 2022
P2, if it was the LD expansion and revision you were referring to, why could you not address it properly the first time?
I might lecture you (at least thatâs what you say), but at least I try to provide reasonable information and not bits and pieces out of context.
Which to me is rather curious coming from somebody in business where being aware of the proper information on what is going on all around is essential to a successful business.
February 26, 2022
You misinterpreted what I said in your rush to post against me.
The sarcastic tone of your latest post is very dull.
February 25, 2022
I canât help but find funny that as soon as a post is more than 20-30 words long, you take it as a lecture. Have you ever considered that this type of comments says more about you than about me.
February 25, 2022
Glad to amuse you heffy.
And I haven’t considered your last suggestion.
February 27, 2022
No surprise there, as this might result in one realising that one could have been wrong, which for a British gentleman is obviously an impossibility.
NB: thatâs a sarcasm (to save another dumb comment from P2).
February 24, 2022
We do not know who you are or what youâve done in life. If you have been a success due to the Thatcher govtâs transformation of opportunities in the U.K. then we all welcome that and wish you every further success.
Based on his success in business and ability to express his views in an articulate (and polite and agreeable) fashion I would say there is every likelihood Mr Rees-Mogg is significantly more gifted than you.
February 24, 2022
I can’t help but view all this through the prism of the Leftie Big Tech in the US getting Biden elected. I think all this is a test by the Communists to see what the free world will do. If we resort merely to sanctions, China will invade Taiwan. As Mrs Thatcher pointed out many years ago, sanctions do not affect the people in power.
February 24, 2022
Er, Putin is not a commie.
He’s a right wing, nationalist populist, with some libertarian tendencies, and admired by the likes of Farage.
The commies are among the downtrodden opposition in Russia.
February 24, 2022
Hilarious
You think Putin is right wing
What really!
In fact more than hilarious.
February 25, 2022
Educate yourself for goodness’ sake.
Putin has promoted explicitly conservative policies in social, cultural, and political matters, both at home and abroad. Putin has attacked globalism and neo-liberalism and is identified by scholars with Russian conservatism. Putin has promoted new think tanks that bring together like-minded intellectuals and writers. For example, the Izborsky Club, founded in 2012 by the conservative right-wing journalist Alexander Prokhanov, stresses (i) Russian nationalism, (ii) the restoration of Russia’s historical greatness, and (iii) systematic opposition to liberal ideas and policies. Vladislav Surkov, a senior government official, has been one of the key economics consultants during Putin’s presidency.
In cultural and social affairs Putin has collaborated closely with the Russian Orthodox Church. Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, head of the Church, endorsed his election in 2012 stating Putin’s terms were like “a miracle of God”.
Doesn’t sound like much of a commie to me.
Reply He is no western Conservative. He rigs markets, uses state ownership, eclipses human rights.He is an authoritarian anti democrat.
February 25, 2022
Your reply may well be accurate, but does not contradict the information that I give, Sir John.
However, in what way do those western Conservatives, the US Republicans differ so much in their aims and methods to cling on to power from Putin’s?
They have armed militias. They use violence. They seek to rig the whole electoral system and the justice system.
February 25, 2022
He was a Colonel in the original USSR KGB.
Yet you still think he is right wing
Truly hilarious
February 26, 2022
Peter, the soviet authoritarians were just another bunch of fascist thugs but who also happened to believe in collectivism.
They had plenty of Vicars Of Bray amongst them too as does any country.
February 26, 2022
It is obvious the left is desperately trying to label Putin and his government as far right.
February 26, 2022
Steve Bannon thinks that Putin is great.
February 26, 2022
P2, interestingly up to one week ago Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour had no bad words to tell about Putinâs actions, specially Marine who had her previous presidential campaign in 2017 helped by a ÂŁ7 m loan from the First Czech-Russian Bank close to Putin (express.co.uk, 04/01/2017).
It is difficult to characterise the two candidates above as representatives of the left.
March 1, 2022
Reply He is no western Conservative – who is?
February 24, 2022
No contest then – Putin will run rings around the illegal president
February 24, 2022
Judge Putin by his actions past and present not by his words. This incursion into Ukraine is a direct threat to Europe not a little local struggle. If he is allowed to succeed you will see cranked up pressure on all border countries previously controlled under Stalin.
There are apparently 30 to 50 thousand russians in the UK. Some are refugees from Putins Russia, but my best guess is that the majority are here for their own or Russias convenience. Remove them from our soil. Not knowing what levers we can apply to an international Russia I await todays response from all parties opposed to this Russian agression.
February 24, 2022
@ agricola “Remove them from our soil.” – only pending their return by dinghy?
March 1, 2022
‘If he is allowed to succeed you will see cranked up pressure on all border countries’ – yes that is just what he wants, loads of trouble, enemies , strife and mounting cost from those countries and worldwide – that is so desirable that the UK should try it, you agree?
February 24, 2022
I have previously suggested that China is acting in the manner of Nazi Germany in the early Thirties. Putin? His playbook is Adolf’s, from 1938-1939. And yet he accuses Ukrainian politicians of being Nazi. These are dark days for the world.
If Belarus is being used as a springboard for the attack then it too must suffer further sanctions.
February 24, 2022
I am very pleased to see Belarus is getting its fair share of sanctions pain.
February 24, 2022
Ukraine is not our fight. Our fight is the ‘dirty money’coming into this Country through corrupt Russian Oligarchs and equally offensive English Legal Representatives and Ex Politicians supporting them
bringing dis-honour to our great Country whilst WE sit by and watch. THAT is where the war is!
February 24, 2022
I am stunned of course that Mr. Putin has disregarded Liz Truss’s warning not to proceed. Stunned!
As for the USA, it has mishandled matters badly up to now so it might recognize that. It has been in decline for a number of years now and is not able to impose its will regardless so it might recognize that too. Beyond that, it and the world might recognize that Ukraine is a divided country with (oversimplifying) the pro-Russian, agricultural east and the pro-Western, industrial west and Mr. Putin has skilfully exploited that fact to advantage, mainly domestic politics dressed up as security. Accordingly, efforts to recreate the Ukraine that existed yesterday are likely both forlorn and sub-optimal.
It will be too much to expect our own Foreign Office is busily working out how to exploit this situation to undermine the Evil Empire for that will be beyond their understanding.
February 24, 2022
Look at Mr Biden. Think about âPartygateâhere.
Itâs no surprise that President Putin has chosen this moment to invade/attack Ukraine.
We have run down all our defences, wounded ourselves with âwokeâ and our enemies can smell our weakness. There can be no better time to finish us off. Didnât try it with Trump.
And no one can say they werenât warned!
Time for our rulers to re-nter the real world.
February 24, 2022
Unless all of the NATO Countries are prepared for a full scale war with Russia, then Ukraine will be lost to Putin, as he has called their bluff.
Next step should be to reinforce all of the borders of Ukraine with NATO Troops, as that really is the Red Line, if NATO is serious about no further Russian expansion.
Europe now suffering from decades of lack of investment in its armed forces thinking The USA (and the UK) will come to its aid again.
Where is the so called EU army that they wanted to create !
February 24, 2022
+10
February 24, 2022
Russia now has to be MADE wholly isolated, financially, commercially and literally.
What does this mean to me?
No monies/goods/people in or out of Russia & her satellites, i.e. with Russian troops controlling, e.g. Belarus, Crimea.
Russians living abroad (anywhere) need to me made persona non gratia (revoke visa/citizenships) and told to return to Russia on repatriation flights.
Ukrainian refugee costs to be calculated and held for future invoicing to Russia alongside rebuilding & reparation costs, after regime change / Putin is removed or dies.
All Russian assets/houses/businesses and possessions located abroad are sequestered and used to pay for consequential losses of foreigners and their businesses having to leave Russia, plus blood money compensation for Ukrainian deaths & refugee costs.
Early thoughts, please add your suggestions.
February 24, 2022
I suggest you need to think about Western business interests in Russia and how keen US/UK corporations would be to see your ideas followed.
March 1, 2022
Rhoddas – did you propose these actions on the USA when they illegally invaded several countries, killed a million or so of innocent men, woman, children and babies, 500,000 of those babies dead was a price worth paying and displaces 10 million , remember?
I think not unless you can say so…
February 24, 2022
We wouldnât have had this situation if the EU hadnât meddled in Ukrainian politics in 2014 and if it didnât want to continue with eastwards expansion (following on from France in 1812 and Germany in 1941) and with our own PM Cameron going to Kazakhstan in 2013 and saying he wanted the EU to extend all the way from the Atlantic to the Urals.
February 24, 2022
Oh yes, thanks, I’d actually forgotten about that idiocy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/01/eu-extend-soviet-union-david-cameron
“EU should extend further into former Soviet Union, says David Cameron”
“Speaking in Kazakhstan, British PM says European Union should stretch from the Atlantic to the Urals”
Do you think he actually knew where to find the Urals?
February 25, 2022
Gorbachev spoke of the Common European Home in those terms. Cameron merely echoed him.
February 24, 2022
The least the USA can do is to do what it said it would do, namely impose severe sanctions including ending participation in or access to SWIFT. No doubt Putin will have anticipated that. He has built up gold reserves, shrunk US Treasury holdings and sought to build trade with China not priced in the US$. Such sanctions will accelerate the China-Russia programme to create an alternative to SWIFT. The economic impact will be significant for gas, oil, fertiliser, grain and corn prices (to name but five examples) and will impact everyone.
The USA also needs to reiterate its commitment to NATO and to Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all). This is required to bolster confidence in the Baltic states and in Poland who now see themselves in the firing line after Putin`s declared intent to expand Russian influence and control to countries it previously occupied whether under Soviet or Tsarist regimes. It needs to reiterate its support for the Ukraine government. Presumably it will supply practical material support for the country`s defence and counter insurgency/asymmetric warfare.
Putin, no doubt, thinks he will get away with his invasion and toppling the current Ukraine government, to be replaced by a compliant alternative, because of perceived weaknesses in the West. Time will tell whether his judgment that another fait accompli will be accepted by the West proves to be correct.
February 24, 2022
We got into this situation because of NATO’s long-standing interest in incorporating Ukraine. Then as you say NATO’s Article 5 could mean that that our country would be dragged into a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. That would very likely lead to World War III. I hope neither of us wants that, Oldtimer. What was happening in the Donbass region was not nice but it was nothing to do with Britain.
Johnson’s dogs of war in the Tory Party should be kept firmly on a leash.
February 25, 2022
Yes, that’s a significant factor.
However, I think that the general mistake by some in the West was made immediately after the collapse of the authoritarian collectivist social, political, and economic model, which sustained the USSR.
This was an abstract thing however, and therefore not something that the self-proclaimed victors could humiliate.
So instead they took a personifiable entity, the Russian nation and people, over which to gloat and to taunt. That never produces good results, but it was done, notably by the Right in the US and UK.
This was irrational as well as unjust, as it was the defunct ideology, not the people or the nation which was the enemy, and especially as that nation was then attempting to reach out constructively towards the West.
February 25, 2022
A very odd view of history NHL.
I recall the great efforts made by President Reagon and Lady Thatcher as well other Western leaders to help develop Russia into a democratic State.
I can’t recall us gloating or taunting at the Russian people.
There was a feeling of optimism that the Berlin Wall had fallen and the Iron Curtain removed.
Perhaps you can jog our memories?
February 26, 2022
Actions speak louder than words.
And those actions were saliently the vigorous soliciting of former Eastern Bloc countries to join NATO and to push its weaponry ever closer to Russia.
That was completely contrary to the magnanimous spirit of Gorbachev’s overtures.
February 24, 2022
Not entirely off topic:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-government-ukraine-russian-martin-luther-king-irish-sea-b984301.html
“UK âtough talkâ on Ukraine not matched with action on NI Protocol, rally hears”
“Mr Allister said: âThe world is rightly outraged by the Russian aggression towards Ukraine, with the United Kingdom government front and centre of the condemnation.
âSovereignty is the core issue, the right not to be ruled by a foreign power.”
âLikewise, though on a more discreet scale, sovereignty is the key issue when it comes to the iniquitous EU Protocol.
âBy its pernicious processes EU sovereignty has been established over the trade and economy of Northern Ireland. GB is now regarded under the protocol as a âthird countryâ â the very epitome of our colonisation by the EU.â”
And apparently President Biden still hasn’t grasped that his beloved Irish Republic has designs on part of a neighbouring country, which as it happens is still his most important and trustworthy ally in Europe:
https://youtu.be/13pnD-88U_o?t=17
“Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare these new so-called countries in territories that belong to his neighbours?”
February 24, 2022
What should Britain do? Britain should do what it should ALWAYS do: act in the BRITISH NATIONAL INTEREST.
War is a great opportunity. Firstly, we should be offering to SELL loads of weaponry t Ukraine – not *give* it away to them. Ukraine is NOT our friend. If you demur from that statement just tell me what Ukraine has done for us. And secondly, we should be thinking more widely about the opportunities this conflict presents. For instance, the last thing the US and EU want to do right now is to have a conflict with the UK which would make joint action against Russia more difficult, so now is the PERFECT time to revoke the Northern Ireland Protocol in its entirety. The EU and the US would have no choice but to just accept this, especially if we threatened a deeper diplomatic split with them if they objected.
Unfortunately we already know that Boris the Traitor will not do ANYTHING that benefits Britain, because he is a fanatical, raving internationalist instead of a patriotic nationalist.
February 24, 2022
Good idea, unfortunately Boris Johnson won’t do it now and in fact has no intention of doing it ever.
There was a good article yesterday, here:
https://capx.co/northern-ireland-olive-oil-and-the-eus-phony-attitude-to-risk/
“Northern Ireland, olive oil and the EUâs phony attitude to âriskâ”
I’ll reproduce just one paragraph:
“The official expanded upon his remarks later, emphasising that olive oil was only one example of the dire risk of British goods, apparently destined for Northern Ireland, making their way into Europe eventually. Sugar, oranges or childrenâs toys could also cross the Irish Sea and threaten the single marketâs integrity.”
The article ends by calling on the UK government “to act unilaterally and force some sense into Brussels”, but as I have said before Boris Johnson is too attached to his precious trade deal with the EU:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/02/18/brexit-wins/#comment-1300592
and it is also now clear that the “Conservative and Unionist” MPs are not going to force his hand on it.
February 24, 2022
+1 Again
February 24, 2022
@ X-Tory “Ukraine is NOT our friend.” – you might be correct for it has said it wants membership for itself of the Evil Empire, an entity hostile to the U.K..
February 24, 2022
Putin will not stop after Ukraine, he,ll pick off other Eastern countries which border Russia.
He senses weakness in EU Particularly in Germany.
I don’t wish a war with Russia but the sooner countries get together and use their combined forces the quicker Putin can be dealt with. If NATO dithers then Putin will be embolden to invade other counties just like the nazi’s did.
February 24, 2022
The Russian military is nowhere near as strong as you seem to imagine. Taking over the pitifully weak Ukraine is as much as they can manage. What they do have, however, are some excellent missiles, and the UK needs to be able to defend itself from these. It is shameful that we do not have an anti-ballistic missile defence system. Our leaders are traitors who have deliberately kept us weak and vulnerable. The other thing we need to develop are TACTICAL nuclear missiles (such as artillery shells) so that we can defend ourselves from large-scale conventional attacks that would otherwise overwhelm our outnumbered forces. The government simply does not have the will to do what is necessary to ensure our safety.
February 26, 2022
For pity’s sake.
February 24, 2022
What do you think the USA should do next?
Containment has to be the aim if the western democracies are able and willing following years of arms reductions etc while VVP has had over several decades to raise their game or else it is game over to the mad monk.
February 24, 2022
We cannot know what Russia’s ultimate intentions are with regard to Ukraine, but what we can be certain of is that this situation was provoked by the coup d’etat in 2014 in which both the EU and the US State Dept were actively involved. The US State Dept has waged wars throughout the world via ‘colour revolutions’ and ‘shock and awe’, many involving undeclared wars like that in Syria.
The USA is the major threat to world peace as its cultural imperialism is a threat to European civilisation;
it despises the nation states of Europe and sees an EU which it occupies as the proto-state multi-cultural soup to replace them.
The USA occupies most countries in the ‘free’ world with their military bases and is hostile to the rest. The USSR collapsed because Russia could no longer afford to maintain it and that will be the fate of the American Empire.
February 24, 2022
What happened in 2014 was a popular revolution, not a coup.
The pro-Russian then president – in Russia – has been sentenced in absentia to 13 years.
February 24, 2022
The mass shootings in the Maidan in Kiev in 2014 was an organised coup by those who have been in power ever since.
February 26, 2022
That atrocity has never been properly explained or attributed.
February 24, 2022
I saw Putin being interviewed about an hour ago. Although the translator was very poor, I felt that Putin was struggling to keep his arguments coherent. I wonder if he was shocked to see the Moscow markets collapse this morning, losing his klepto-mates a ton of money.
February 25, 2022
and 50% of it is his !
February 24, 2022
Putin’s got the gas so he’s got the power to dictate to Germany, Austria and Italy who are Putin’s most loyal and dependent customers of Russian gas. No wonder these 3 nations are silent
Like Sir John has been continually stating on this blog, energy independence and security is fundamental. Unfortunately we have filthy, Anglophobic slime in charge in Whitehall so that obvious approach has become an anathema to the faux Green bullshitters
We desperately need a real PM with real beliefs, real feelings and real commitment who isn’t swayed by the progressive bastards that are destroying our nation
February 24, 2022
Germany has said that the European Union has enough stored gas to last the winter.
February 24, 2022
As long as they don’t use any.
February 24, 2022
NLH. Oh that’s ok then.
February 26, 2022
DOM – Your second paragraph is classic which I wholeheartedly approve of but until the whole rotten system of our government is changed nothing is going to happen, however I have a feeling change is not far off.
February 26, 2022
Is that like your feeling that Putin would not attack Ukraine?
February 24, 2022
Isn’t it strange how suddenly Coronavirus isn’t so much of an issue now?
February 24, 2022
Start on now. The UK spends too much on welfare and not enough on our armed forces. Agree. Too much on feckless families, too much on single parents with numerous children and too much on illegals. When are we going to get real? We are in tge shit while we throw away our nuclear industry, our oil industry, our gas industry and our common sense. It’s been replaced by woke. What a bloody disaster which has been waiting to happen since world war 2.
February 26, 2022
FUS – all part of the planned slow destruction introduced after the end of WW2.
February 24, 2022
MI5 and MI6 going off on a course of diverity. How bloody woke. Tgat will win a war. I feel so defeated already. The west is not prepared.
February 24, 2022
Am trying to imagine how Mr Biden would react if Mr Johnson decided to exercise his Article 16 NIP rights at this particular moment. I can’t imagine it would go down at all well. Leavers had better hope that Mr Putin calls off his attack and seeks a settlement quickly because if this war becomes protracted I imagine the NIP will become the permanent arrangement.
February 25, 2022
Of course it is the permanent arrangement.
That is it – brexit.
February 24, 2022
and the winner in todays most posted count is…..
..
….
wait for it…
Martin – refugee in Cardiff having escaped from Nottingham.
February 26, 2022
Perhaps Biden supports Russia in a limited incursion to stop the 8 year civil war. That was what it originally was and the West did nothing to help stop it.
The EU/ US supported the corrupted Kiev Government which started the civil war in the first place. Our intelligence sources make no mention of the swastika wearing groups involved in the civil war and supported (ok turning a blind eye if you prefer) by Kiev.
February 27, 2022
The EU needs to support the decisions of democratically elected governments and stop itself from attempting to overturn them by alternative means.
The Ukraine should consider becoming a non-aligned democratic independent state with a strong conventional army. It would be wise to maintain good relations with its close neighbours.
We should be aware of the historical context and Russia security concerns which were agreed to in the past. We also need to consider why Russia has felt the need to act now. Historically we have been allies especially in past times of great suffering during WW2
Should the EU offer membership and or security guarantees to Russia? all based on agreed borders and policing in problem areas. It was the EU wishing to expand into Ukraine which may have posed the problem.
Should NATO seek to add Russia as a member, it might assuage its security concerns.
We in the UK should encourage co-operation & independence from the EU. That’s what we voted for and it is still being denied.