Mediocre Ministers go with the flow. Civil servants present them with issues to consider and problems to tackle. The Minister accepts the inherited policies and is guided by the submissions, often consenting to the civil service description of the problem and the preferred solution. The minister will let the civil service organise the diary which will shape the agenda and define the problems to solve in the way the diary master wants.

The advice has usually been through many hands, and a consensus has been reached. If options are offered the preferred solution will often run alongside clearly bad choices. The advice may suffer from being a compromise view. The Minister really needs to know the range of views and examine whether a different option could be better.

Quite often the best response will be to do nothing. The problem may be contrived or beyond government power to resolve. Any further intervention may make things worse. Doing nothing is an undervalued option, leading us to governments that over claim and underperform.

In recent years from Blair onwards there has been abuse of the power to legislate, with various laws  instructing the government itself what to do in the future. This is fatuous. An honest government can announce what it  is going to do and then over the years do it. It does not need to embed it in law. These so called laws never have clauses to impose penalties on Ministers and senior civil servants for breaking them. If the government finds it no longer wants to do what it said or is incapable of doing it it can anyway repeal the requirement.

Ministers are most wanted by officials when the department has made a major mistake. The Minister may have known nothing about it or the mistake may predate the Minister’s arrival  in the department. It will however be the Ministers job to explain the failure and remedial action to Parliament, and to take the blame. Internal review will always show no single official or small group was in sole and continuous charge. No- one is to blame and maybe a lack of resources can be blamed again however much is being spent on failure. .

Jonathan Clark has sent me a copy of his new book on the Enlightenment. It provides a magnificent sweep of intellectual history over the long eighteenth century 1660 to 1832 and into the modern era. It considers the thought of England, Scotland, France, Germany and the USA.

Its central conclusion is that the term The Enlightenment is one invented by twentieth century historians. There was no Enlightenment movement, and there were considerable variations of thought and intellectual interests over the decades studied and in the varied European and US geographies. When I wrote about some of the thinkers described here I tried to follow their views of what they thought and how they wished to describe their world. Jonathan does that brilliantly based on a fount of knowledge and scholarship for a wider group.

Those interpretations of our past which saw a progressive movement from superstition  to science, from belief to secular rationalism,  from feudal agriculture to the industrial and agrarian revolutions,  from   executive monarchy to democracy, sought to downplay other characteristics of the complex literature, natural philosophy and political debate of the period.

”Enlightenment” figures usually  placed themselves on the side of belief in their age’s struggle against atheism. They often sided with those who opposed widening the franchise and looked for sponsorship from landed wealth rather than from the new manufacturers.

It is still possible for historians to write golden thread history where England battles her way to great industrial wealth, scientific and technical advances, a better welfare system  and a democratic constitution with a full adult franchise.  All that is true, and today too often derided or taken for granted. It is important scholars like Jonathan reveal the complexity of the process and remind us most of the intellectuals along this carefully selected journey did not see it like that and did not belong to any modernising or Enlightenment movement. The great natural philosophers of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries often wrote extensively  about religious matters or dabbled with alchemy as well as producing important breakthroughs we now call scientific.

Our constitutional theory is democratic. Civil servants advise, Ministers decide. Civil servants remain anonymous, putting their views to Ministers in private. Ministers defend the collective government decision in public which is a decision  relevant Ministers and officials have reached through discussion and email exchanges.

This means a good Minister can make a difference, can change policy and can offer informed leadership. It means mediocre and bad Ministers simply do what the officials or Number 10 tell them, and gives great opportunities to civil servants to block, subvert or delay government policies they do not like.

There have been too few good Ministers this century. Nick Gibb was allowed to stay in post as Schools Minister for a long period and did important work helping raise standards. He pursued the need to use synthetic phonics  as the best method to teach reading. One of the unsung achievements of the period of Coalition and Conservative government was a big rise in U.K. child literacy as a result. He handled those in the teaching profession and some officials who were hostile to this approach.

More recently Claire Couthino started to introduce some realism into the self harming energy policy that most officials and the Opposition parties favoured. The U.K. government overrode official advice to ban new oil and gas wells in the U.K. This crazy policy increases world CO 2 by forcing the U.K. to import more CO 2 intensive LNG in place of using U.K. pipeline gas. She started to abate other areas of self harm like the early ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars and the premature phasing out of gas boilers.
Much of the last government’s policy was derived from the international Treaty based consensus on climate change, WHO  responses to the pandemic, EU regulation and the hopeless  forecasts and views of the Bank of England and OBR. We were governed in many areas by an official tyranny based on wildly wrong forecasts and an official consensus shared by the political Opposition that Ministers were unwilling to challenge. The new government will double up on the official consensus as they believe it all, especially the bits where it is obviously wrong.

Some think the lockdown consensus, the money printing bonanza, the pursuit of net zero whilst importing more from high CO 2 countries,  the mass migration policies and the rest are the ideas of a few influential billionaires. If only. These are policies shared by armies of officials, baked into global Treaties and pursued by many political parties.

It has rightly long been against the law to urge people to violence against others or to send out messages to people to join burglaries, looting or rioting. It is an offence to discriminate against people for their race or religion and to use hate speech against individuals or groups. Recent On line Harms legislation has underwritten that none of this must be done online, though it was already a crime whether you used the phone, a placard, a leaflet or an on line posting.

There are now those who want to widen the law to ban so called fake news. They argue that someone can circulate a wrong fact about an event which then whips up racial or religious hatred if it wrongly accuses people of a crime they did not commit. This is still covered by existing law if the resulting comment or stimulus to action is based on hatred and on their race or religion, using an invented and wrong fact to reinforce that ill.
Trying to ban all fake news goes far beyond necessary protections of people and property, and desirable crack downs over invitations to violence. It implies there is just one truth, that the authorities can judge that truth, and that any other statements are false. Life is not that straightforward.
If people and institutions cannot make false claims which they believe  to be true at the time much debate and discussion will be banned. A government moving  in this direction might end up breaking its own fake news law all too often.

Consider some of the statements the present government has made. They said they will build 300,000 new homes a year for 5 years. Many think that unlikely. If they  do not build 300,000 a year for the next two years does that make their comment fake news?

Then there is their aim to make the U.K. the fastest growing G 7 economy. It is true it was the first half of this year but most  official forecasts expect others to outperform over the next few years. Would that also become fake news?

When it comes to issues like climate change and net zero policies there are big disagreements.Is government saying only one view is allowed of all the complexities? When the Bank of England told us two years before inflation hit 11% it would be 2%, was that fake news?

Of course we need to keep the ban hate speech and stop people promoting criminal activity. Why aren’t all the communications of all the small boat vendors taken down and prosecuted? We must not ban different ways of reviewing the big issues like climate change, migration and the economy as disagreement about cause, effect and policy are fundamental to democratic debate.

The new government solemnly promised that it would not make any important budget or fiscal announcement without a OBR report and forecast showing how it would be paid for. It condemned the Truss unfunded tax cuts though not her much larger unfunded spending rises made without a forecast. The tax Truss cuts were of course immediately cancelled and the Bank of England continued its erratic monetary squeeze disrupting bond markets.

We are living through announcements of large increases in public spending to pay a series of inflationary wage awards. There is no OBR forecast, no statement of how these will be paid for. The rail settlement brought a hopeless Transport Secretary onto the media to tell us she had no idea whether fares will be hiked or taxpayer subsidies increased to meet the bills. The government dropped the idea of offsetting some of the costs with productivity improvements from smarter and more flexible working.

Meanwhile we can always rely on the Bank of England to make things worse. They cut interest rates just as the government switched to an inflationary pay policy and just before the inflation index started to rise again. There has been no warning from the Bank about the dangers of large wage rises unmatched by improved productivity. I thought they were independent with the sole task of keeping inflation down. When might they do that?

One of the biggest missed opportunities so far from Brexit is the failure to rebuild a strong and sustainable U.K. fishing industry.

During the UK’s long stay in the EEC/EU the U.K. accepted its large and rich fishery was a common EU resource. Our fleets dwindled. The Spanish came in from far away to fish our waters. Various EU countries gained more quota to fish than U.K. vessels enjoyed. Very large trawlers and industrial  trawling pillaged our stocks and led to lower fishing quotas.

The idea of Brexit was to take back control of our fish stocks.  Government today could work with the industry. Fish caught in our waters should be landed and processed in the U.K. to rebuild our food industry. Government should help with finance to build a bigger fleet of fishing boats in U.K. yards. Quotas for foreign vessels should be cut back where stocks are under  pressure. Ultra large vessels and trawl methods that damage the marine environment  should be banned.

Take back control and rebuild our fishing fleets. We should not be importing fish we can easily catch for ourselves.

Labour governments usually like banning things. One good thing to ban would be the over 100 m industrial trawlers which come to damage our fisheries and take too much of our fish.

Even if the government reduced legal migration and stops illegal through its policing of the gangs the U.K. population is likely to continue to expand quickly from  migration over the next five years as during the last 20 years.

This means the government needs to get to its target of 300,000 new homes a year, which is stretching.

The government has floated the idea of establishing new towns or cities to achieve this new higher target. It has yet to identify where and how these will be established. Previous new towns were pioneered by New Town Corporations charged with assembling land and granting planning permission. Public money or guarantees were used to get it going, by harnessing large amounts of private capital and ending up with plenty of private ownership. Milton Keynes was one of the later examples.

At the recent peak rate of 750,000 additional people coming to live here you would need to build 3 Southamptons a year. This has not been happening and is impossible. There is discussion of building 3 or 4 new towns over a period of years. They could be near Bristol, York and Oxford. There is Labour pressure for a new town between Oxford and Cambridge along the improved east-west rail line being put in between them.

If they want to do this they will need to speed up the process and legislate to give them planning override and control of the area designated.

I would be interested in your thoughts on what is a realistic level of migration. Are new towns a good idea? Where should they be located? Is it right to override current planning controls and local opposition to large scale development?

When Labour was thrown out of office in May 2010 they had just presided over a big recession and banking collapse. Unemployment was at 7.8% of the workforce. Inflation was 3%,above the 2% target. Real wages had fallen by nearly 1% over the past year. They mainly lost the election on the last few years of very bad economic performance.

When the Conservatives were thrown out of office at the beginning of July 2024 inflation was at the 2% target. Real wages had grown 2.2% over the previous year. Unemployment was at 4.2%. They lost office for a variety of reasons including their failure to carry out their promise to reduce migration and stop the small boats, and for the high inflation and higher taxes of 2022-3 which they blamed on Covid and the Ukraine war.

I will keep a record of these closing figures for what used to be called the Misery Index, Inflation plus unemployment, and for real wage changes. If Labour can improve on these figures I will give them due credit. If as I fear their policies produce a deterioration they will earn criticism.

The last government could have had a much better record on inflation and real wages over the full four and a half years if it had followed different advice on money policy and Covid lockdowns.

It was not just the big productivity loss that boosted the deficit and lay behind higher taxes in the last Parliament. I spent time throughout giving Prime Ministers, Chancellors and Chief Secretaries who came and went many ideas of how to save money in bloated state budgets.

There were the large sums being spent on energy subsidies as they intervened heavily to switch from coal and gas generated electricity to solar and wind. There were the over the top domestic energy subsidies for the better off as well as for those on low incomes. The Truss plan gave double subsidy to most MPs, as  anyone with two homes qualified for two subsidies. There were the large loans to Councils to let them buy up property investment empires. There were the grants to Councils to take road capacity out. There was overseas aid for bad schemes and for some developing economies with their own budget capacity. There was the large expenditure on housing for illegal migrants, and the big cost of housing and public service provision for low income and no income legal migrants. There was the wasteful HS 2 project and the escalating losses of the nationalised railway.

By the last year I was hammering my big 3. The annual  £20 bn plus of lost public sector productivity. The £20 bn of avoidable annual bond losses  incurred by bad policies at the Bank of England. The £10 bn to £20 bn of overall cost and lost tax revenue from high levels of economic inactivity amongst people of working age after the pandemic. The government tried to do something about the first and third of these, but the benefits were neatly put forward into years after the election in the main by officials who did not see the urgency of implementing the necessary changes. . They would not budge on the easiest cut of all, to stop selling the bonds at a loss.

The Covid lockdowns were too long and too extreme. I worked with the Mark Harper group of Conservative MPs to challenge the policy and propose less damaging ways of keeping people safe from the virus, with limited success.

I then watched in horror at the extreme volatility of output, employment and incomes that resulted, and at the colossal public sector costs to offset the collapse of many business activities.

It became clear that whilst  many private sector activities rebounded quickly on the ending of lockdowns, public sector productivity did not.  It took a massive 7.5% hit according to ONS figures looking at Labour productivity. I drew Ministers attention to this and persuaded them that they needed to review with their officials how this big loss could rapidly be repaired, The loss was great in the NHS where much non Covid work had been abandoned owing to the decision to put Covid cases into District General hospitals, creating cross infection control difficulties. Not enough use was made of the private sector hospital capacity the taxpayers were paying for and practically  no use of the Nightingale special hospitals.

Ministers were told that the coming of AI did present useful opportunities to raise productivity but it would take substantial investment,and many months t9 draw up the specifications for procurement and to see where AI could go. I countered by pointing out we did not need to wait for any investment in AI to get back up to 2019 levels of productivity, because there was no AI in 2019 and yet the government did hit higher levels of productivity then. Eventually Ministers settled for a possible £20 bn of productivity gains spread over a long period with the need to spend to save. The actual loss on the original ONS figures was more like £30 bn. Official figures were subsequently altered, as we were living through a period of experimentation  and change with all sorts of official figures to make it difficult to see consistent series and to effect comparisons over time. The balance of trade figures were changed substantially as well as productivity numbers.

I suggested a simple device to get the lost productivity back a bit quicker. I proposed a complete staff freeze on external recruitment for non front line staff. Each time someone retired or left employment the post should be reviewed  to see if it was one to abolish , amalgamate or fill from an existing staff member. Ministers ended up agreeing a one in one out approach to stop further rapid expansion of numbers such as we saw across the Covid period, with a few exceptions like Steve  Barclay at DEFRA who did go for a freeze.

The state recruited far too many extra administrators and policy advisers over the last five years. This big bulge in recruitment led to a plunge in productivity. There is also the issue of working from home. Some of us for some of the time can be more productive at home , often giving travel time to the job as well. However it is important to go into the  office regularly and to attend important meetings in person. Staff need to interact, to mentor, assist and socialise their ideas which are all easier in an office environment.Quite a lot of jobs require daily attendance at a workplace to serve the  public, supervise the machinery and train and direct staff.