Stop wasting money

The Autumn Statement put up spending and taxes. It should be amended by cutting out needless and wasteful spending.

We do not need a government ad campaign to tell us turning down the thermostat would cut our energy use. People are not stupid.

What we do need is a government sector that turns the lights and heating off when it is not using its buildings. We need them to cut the number  of buildings they use now there is so much Home working.

We do not need them to increase overseas aid by signing up to new COP 27 funds and pledges.

We do need them to control our borders to stop illegal migrants. The hotel bills are large and wrong

They should pause the expensive smart meter programme.

They should cut the massive costs of HS2

They should stop the planned £11 bn of losses on bond sales the Bank should not be making

They should get on with improved policies to get people off benefits and into work. No need for another review.

They should accelerate the NHS manpower plan which should recruit more medical staff to replace Agency temps, and cut overheads

 

Dodgy figures in the Autumn Statement

The Treasury keeps changing the figures it shows and withholds. I feel when reading Budget and Financial Statement books now I am being pushed into a view or judgement they want Ministers to make and readers to accept.

Let’s take the case of debt interest. They have decided to alarm everyone about the scale of debt interest. So they add to what all would agree is debt interest, the regular cash payments to lenders, the extra repayment amount on indexed debt which is not paid until the  loan is rolled over for another one on repayment.  With this year’s runaway inflation it more than doubles the apparent debt interest paid. So we are told on their definition debt interest has reached £120 bn or 11% of revenue this year.

That gives them the problem that as inflation falls away so will debt interest. So they will not tell us by how much in pounds. We can see it comes down on a graph from over 11% of revenue to 6%, so by 2024-5 on their odd numbers there is a big saving. Why not show us the cash interest figures for every year which are high anyway and offer a balance sheet line to show the increased cash cost of repayment of linkers alongside the  real win of repaying the majority of the debt which is not inflation linked  in pounds devalued by inflation.

There is then the assertion around half the  adjustments to get the deficit down will come from spending reductions and half from tax rises. To make it difficult to check  this they do not this time show the path for total tax revenues. The 50/50 is based around previous budgets and forecasts which had built in substantial increases in spending.

What this revision reveals is total spending will go up £133bn by 2024-5 compared to last year and by £224 bn by 2027-8. No sign of cuts overall. Income, mainly tax, can be derived by subtracting borrowing from spending. That goes up by £200bn between this year and 2027-8.

So to us mere mortals these budget plans are for a substantial cash rise in both spending and taxes. It will also on these numbers be a real increase in both, as they forecast inflation tumbling and going negative in 2025.

 

A Minister in office is not always in power

The events of recent weeks have shown that it is possible to be a Minister in office unable to see through changes of policy or enforcement of laws in ways the public and Ministers wish.

At the Home Office successive Ministers have made clear their wish to end people trafficking across the Channel. There has been a change of the law, yet still lawyers and legal processes conspire to delay final decisions on cases. People can claim to have been trafficked yet we do not seem able to return them to their home from whence they were trafficked. People claim they are asylum seekers yet they have come immediately from the safe country of France, and often came from another safe country before France. Two Home Secretaries have now been briefed against and complained about by civil servants. The Ministers have doubtless become frustrated at the lack of help to design a law which works or to enforce a law which was said to work. The idea is meant to be Ministers set out the aims of policy and provide the resources, whilst officials get on with implementing it in the best way.

At the Treasury Ministers are told they need to follow Bank and OBR orthodoxy. There has been a  notable lack of self criticism or curiosity as to how the UK has an 11% inflation rate when Ministers have endorsed a constant target of 2% inflation and left the Bank free to set interest rates, interfere in bond markets and oversee the overall banking  system to bring this about.  Nor has there been much public exploration of why successive OBR forecasts have been tens of billions out in recent years, and how this can lead Ministers to accept wrong judgements based on bad data. Treasury Ministers need to be more sceptical of the advice they are getting as so far it has landed us with an unwelcome inflation and may soon land us in an unwanted recession.

More money for Wokingham social care

I put the case to the Chancellor before the Autumn Statement for more money for Councils like Wokingham where social service demand has been exceeding available grant aid and tax revenue. I was pleased to see he has agreed and provided £2.8bn more for next year and £4.7bn the following year. I urge Wokingham Borough again to send in the detailed  case for more money so the Council can get its fair share of these substantial new resources.

The OBR run the Autumn Statement

I said the OBR deficit forecast this spring for this year  was likely to prove an underestimate. Yesterday the OBR put it up by 75%.

I said all summer we would go into recession unless they changed policy. The OBR did not forecast that in the spring. Now they are forecasting a recession all next year.

Last year I argued to end Quantitative easing by the Bank and Treasury to avoid inflation taking off. They went for another £150 bn of money printing and we now have a nasty inflation.

I now argue for some offset to the monetary tightening the Bank is doing and want them to stop selling bonds at a loss into  the market. I fear they will carry on and make the recession worse.

I see the government are offering some offset to the recession policies with a boost to public spending this year and next. The money given to people and companies to help with energy bills and offset inflation will as the OBR says reduce the depth of the slowdown.

It would have been better to include some tax cuts to do this, VAT cuts help cut the inflation rate. Cuts in tax on business and incomes help confidence and may even grow the revenues faster.

The OBR have upped the ante with their bloated figures for debt interest including non cash items. These should come tumbling down as inflation falls. The Chancellor has done just what the OBR wanted. Their £50 bn black hole is bizarre. No one can say what the deficit will be in five years time. If we followed a more pro growth policy it would be lower than the 0BR say and could vanish altogether. If the Bank and OBR continue to dictate the black Hole will be bigger, driven there by a worse recession. £50 bn is less than the large revisions to OBR deficit forecasts in each of the last three years.

Steering the economy by OBR five year forecasts is like relying on a medieval map to get to a modern city.

Letter to Wokingham Borough Council

Dear Councillor Jones

I am very willing to represent the Council to government where it has a good case, and think we would serve Wokingham better if the Council consulted me before sending letters to Ministers. Ministers are busy people who do not have continuing conversations with every Council in the country issue by issue. They are my colleagues where I am in regular contact with them over Wokingham issues in the context of national policy.

I see you have recently written to the Health Secretary proposing a pausing of the social care plans. I have been recommending to Ministers that they put more money into social services in Councils like Wokingham where a case is made based on need, and  have proposed a rethink of the social care policy. I wish to see the extra money concentrated on providing better services for those who are in need of social care support and wish them to improve  the quality and range of service provision.

If you wish to influence government over a local matter it is best to concert efforts with local MPs, to have a well researched case for more money based on need and existing financial provision where money is involved, and to only seek a meeting with a Minister where there is some new issue or new way of thinking the Minister needs to understand through a meeting.

I continue to receive complaints about the money  being spent on closing and narrowing roads and the plans for more restrictions of traffic on main roads.

 

Yours sincerely

 

Rt Hon Sir John Redwood MP DPhil FCSI

Remembrance Day 2022

I am grateful to the British legion and all who organised the Remembrance Day services and wreath layings.

On Remembrance Sunday I joined the British legion at Arborfield in the morning. We marched to the War memorial, where I laid a wreath and joined in the service.

In Wokingham during the afternoon I attended in the Town Hall where I and others laid wreaths before marching to St Paul’s Church for a service. I read a lesson from the Gospel according to St Matthew.

Both events were well attended. Uniformed services presented their standards.

We did remember them

My Speech at the Opposition Day Motion on Britain’s Industrial Future

Rt Hon Sir John Redwood MP (Wokingham) (Con): I congratulate the Minister on a lively and informative speech. It was great to have a positive vision for the future from him. He rightly reminded us that many of the exciting new technologies and opportunities available to modern industry and business are being grasped by both the private sector and the Government working together. I congratulate him and his Department on that work. However, I urge him and the Department to greater efforts in the range of more traditional industries that are still very much industries of the future. We have a choice. If we make the right decisions on taxes, regulations, support frameworks and orders, we can produce more such things at home. If we make the wrong decisions, we will end up importing too many of them.

I start with energy. The Minister’s Department has a crucial role in organising our energy and the transition that it wants as well as ensuring that we have enough of the traditional energy forms when they are crucial to heating our homes and turning our factories. In this period of transition, we can do more to extract more of our own oil and gas. That is greener than importing it, because, in burning gas that comes down a pipe from the North sea, far less carbon dioxide is generated than if the gas were extracted somewhere else, transformed into liquid form and transported—at least half the CO2 is saved that would otherwise be generated. More importantly, that is a safer supply. Even more importantly, if we are still to have high taxes on it, we will collect those taxes. At the moment, the more we import, the more dead money goes out of our country to pay somebody else’s taxes, doubly burdening our industry with the extra cost of what are sometimes extreme market prices to secure the supply—when there is not a long-term contract—and extra transport costs that must be put into the equation for effective delivery.

I urge the new ministerial team to take up from where the old team were moving to and understand that there are quite a lot of good proven reserves out there now. Production licences could be granted in a timely way, and we could have more of our own import substitution and more secure supplies for the future. It is possible to work with the industry on existing fields so that maintenance schedules can be kept to a minimum and output can be maximised, particularly over a difficult winter. We all know that if anything goes wrong with the UK and European gas supply over the winter, it will be our industry that gets caught first; industry is very reliant on plentiful gas supplies for much of its important processes.

We must be careful about carbon accounting. I think a lot of us feel that it does not make a lot of sense to say that the heavy gas-using industries and other fossil fuel-using industries in the United Kingdom, such as cement, glass, ceramics, steel and so on, will be penalised because they are generating carbon dioxide in their process, only to substitute imports of those same products that will certainly produce more CO2, not only because of the long-distance transport, but quite often from the processes as well, as this country has often gone a bit further in more efficient processes than some import substitutes. So that, too, is an area that we need to look at very carefully.

On the car industry, I would like to expand a little on the intervention. Again, a difficult transition is under way and it can only go at the pace that the customers are willing to let it go. At the moment, as we have been hearing, a relatively small minority of the cars built in this country are full electric cars—something to do with price and range, and people getting used to the idea of the electric vehicle—and so during the transitional period we again have a choice: either we produce the diesel and petrol cars that people still want to buy, or somebody else does that and we end up importing them. Again, I do not think that that is a good course. I would not want to be ahead of some of the other leading car producers in the world in definitely ruling out producing vehicles that still sell well, when we have put a lot of investment collectively into developing more fuel-efficient vehicles, which have much less coming out of the tailgate.

My final brief point builds on one that the Minister eloquently made in certain contexts. We can do a lot more, as the Government are trying to do, with sensible purchasing of our own products. Of course, we do not want to buy products that are less good quality or too expensive. There has to be competition within the UK market to reassure the Government they are getting value, but just as we have always done with things like warships, so we can do for more essential products. We should give the home base the best chance and, if necessary, help people come in as major investors with their factories in order to do so.

What can you expect for £1,087,000,000,000 a year?

Since 2018 public expenditure has surged. This year we see  government spending nearly £1.1 trillion, up by more than  a quarter compared to the 2028-19 level. We need to ask what do we get for all this money? Where does it all go?

Each household this year will pay on average £35,000 in tax to receive on average £38,000 in government activity. The system is very redistributive so the higher earners contribute many times the value of the benefits they receive, and some pay more in total taxes than they get to spend on themselves and their families on everything else.

These huge sums are leading more and more people to question why the level and quality of services is in many cases so disappointing. As an MP running part of the extensive complaints system for government which is an important part of the job I am in receipt of  too many justified complaints.

There is the Home Office, unable to process migration claims quickly and fairly to ensure illegals go back whilst  those we welcome can soon adjust to their new lives and get a job. There is the failure to stop the people trafficking across the Channel, the failure to prevent protesters blocking main motorways for hours on end and delays in reporting on people’s suitability to undertake jobs with children and vulnerable people.

There is the Probate Office, unable to process the long and complex information they require in a timely way. This leads to difficult delays in sorting out a deceased person’s estate and can be very upsetting for the families involved.

There are the delays in getting a doctors appointment or treatment at a local hospital. During covid managers of the NHS failed to use all the capacity taxpayers  were paying for in private hospitals when these extra beds were meant to be there for non covid cases. They  closed down wards in state hospitals for fear of cross  infection and did not use the  Nightingale covid hospitals provided. .

There are delays at the Passport Office, impeding people from travelling owing to unreasonable delays in renewing passports.

There are delays in the granting a wide range of licences that individuals and businesses need. North Sea oil and gas production has been held up by a shortage of licences and delays in granting them.

The Transport Department grants cash to schemes that reduce the capacity of main roads, making like more difficult to get to work, cutting access for emergency services, and making it more difficult for supply trucks to the shops.

In most of these cases Ministers are keen to see improvements in service levels and have agreed large increases in cash to achieve this under the general 27% increase in 3 years in total spending. It is time for public sector managers to raise quality and efficiency across the board.